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1:01That's LifeLock.com, code FOOTBALL. This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
1:06What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen. In this episode 1121 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
1:12After a draft season filled with ups and downs, we're just getting started.
1:17The NFL season kicks off this week, which means we're now moving into the in-season Late Round Podcast schedule.
1:23And that schedule, it's the same that it's been in recent years.
1:26Every Tuesday morning, you can expect this 15 transactions episode.
1:30This is where I talk about players to add, drop, buy, and sell in your leagues.
1:35On Wednesday, it's 10 trends. That one's pretty self-explanatory.
1:38I talk about 10 fantasy football trends that can help you with roster management.
1:42Thursday's a sleeper show. That's where I talk about players who aren't heavily rostered, but they've got intriguing matchups.
1:48You may be able to start some of them in your league if you're in a pinch.
1:53Friday, we have two episodes that drop. One's a mailbag episode.
1:57The other one is an episode of Late Round Perspectives.
2:00Expect the mailbag to hit your podcast feeds in the early morning, and then perspectives in the early afternoon.
2:06We also are doing the Late Round Fantasy Football Show every Friday at 1pm Eastern on YouTube.
2:11Myself and David Kitchen will talk through news, some data, players I'm higher or lower on that week versus consensus, a look-ahead
2:18waiver wire segment, some bold predictions, and more. That will then drop into the podcast feed on Saturday morning.
2:24So that alone is six episodes per week. I also do the data dump on Twitter and on Blue Sky every Monday
2:31morning, and that also gets sent via the Late Round Newsletter.
2:35And speaking of which, a brand new data dump YouTube show is coming in just a few weeks to that same YouTube channel.
2:42Where every Monday, Brandon Gadula and David Kitchen, they're going to go through some usage data to help you guys out with your teams.
2:50That's on YouTube.com slash at LateRoundFF. That's going to start in just a few weeks.
2:54And then obviously, if you're a Late Round member, you'll also receive weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, and a Q&A livestream each week.
3:02Along with plenty of other perks, like the Late Round Discord.
3:06You can learn more all about that on LateRound.com.
3:08So yeah, it's a grind. There's a lot of work to be done this season, but I am really excited for it.
3:15I'll get stuff right, I'll get stuff wrong, but hopefully in the end, it all leads to the same place, and that's a fantasy football championship.
3:24So with all that being said, let's get to the first transaction of this 2026 season.
3:29Add Malik Willis. Usually on the 15 transaction show, you're going to find lower rostered quarterbacks than this one.
3:35But with drafts just finishing, there aren't many passers that are readily available.
3:39Willis, according to Yahoo, he's still available in nearly 60% of leagues, despite having legitimate top 10 upside in fantasy this year.
3:46He averaged 11.8 rushing points per game in his three starts with the Packers.
3:50We know that he can bring it with his legs.
3:53And if he can get to even 7 rushing points per game this season, there could be something there.
3:59Because since 2011, only 25 quarterbacks have thrown the ball 300 or more times, while averaging at least 7 rushing points per game.
4:0722 of those 25 passers finishes top 10 fantasy options in points per game.
4:11Some of you might be listening to this and you're just like, this is another Justin Fields or Anthony Richardson type player.
4:18And maybe that's the case. But even if it is, over the last four years, Richardson and Fields rank as top 7
4:25quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback among passers with 200 or more dropbacks.
4:29Malik Willis, for the record, ranks 5th. We don't know what Malik Willis is exactly as a thrower.
4:35And yeah, he doesn't have great weapons there in Miami.
4:38But we can't deny this potential upside. And it also doesn't hurt that the Dolphins open up their season against the Raiders
4:45and then the 49ers, two teams that could provide favorable matchups for fantasy quarterbacks this year.
4:50Buy Luther Burden. Anyone saying that there's not risk with Luther Burden, they're lying.
4:54There's definitely risk. We've never seen him as a true full-time player.
4:58He didn't hit a 70% route share in a single game last year.
5:02We have to admit that we're doing some projecting if we're leaning into Luther Burden.
5:07But I'm fine with that. Burden's price did fall a little bit due to that groin injury that he suffered in camp.
5:14But his status in week one looks good. He's back at practice.
5:18But genuinely, I think Luther Burden has a chance to be special in fantasy football.
5:23First as a prospect, he had an elite zap score.
5:26It's rare for non-round one wide receivers to fall into the elite producer category in that model.
5:31But Burden didn't just get there. He comfortably got there.
5:34And there's nothing that he did as a rookie that really shifted my already high opinion of Burden.
5:40He had the third best yards per outrun rate of any first year wide receiver with 100 or more routes run since 2011.
5:47And he came on strong towards the end of the season.
5:51From week 11 through 17. Week 11 through the end of the fantasy season.
5:55Burden ranked 10th in targets per outrun, 2nd in yards per outrun, and 5th in PPR points per outrun among all relevant wideouts in football.
6:03Maybe Burden doesn't check the traditional wide receiver boxes that Roma Dunze checks.
6:07But I think he fits this offense perfectly. Ben Johnson is the master schemer.
6:12He can get guys open in space. And Burden's incredible after the catch.
6:16In fact, in college, he had a 98th percentile avoided tackles force per reception rate, and his yards after the catch per reception ranked in the 84th percentile.
6:25Look, the bottom line here, a lot of people say we can't buy into Luther Burden because we haven't seen it yet.
6:32If we waited for elite production to hit with players, we would never be able to find discounts on these breakouts.
6:38Burden, to me, has a legit shot to become a stud.
6:42But I also think his floor is kind of underrated given the offensive environment that he's in.
6:47Add Dontavian Wicks. I think Makai Lemon will eventually be the number 2 wide receiver in Philly this year.
6:53But it's probably not going to happen right away.
6:56He missed a lot of camp, he didn't play well in the preseason, and he's probably going to feel most comfortable right away out of the slot.
7:05So enter Dontavian Wicks. I don't think he's a bad player.
7:08He entered the league in 2023, and since then, he has a 71st percentile yards per route run rate, a 76th percentile
7:15PPR points per route run rate, and an 81st percentile targets per route run rate.
7:20That's among all wide receivers with 200 or more routes run over that timeframe.
7:24What if he just needed a change of scenery?
7:27Or what if he just needed more opportunity to see a higher route share?
7:31The efficiency has been there. And the early season schedule is not that bad either.
7:36Philly opens up against the Commanders, then the Titans, and then the Bears.
7:40Those are three teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in PFF's preseason secondary rankings.
7:46The Commanders and Titans, they're both bottom three. So adding Dontavian Wicks off the waiver wire makes a ton of sense.
7:53He's on a lot of my teams right now.
7:56Sell Trey McBride. Look, Trey McBride has been my tight end too throughout the summer.
8:00But my overall ranking of him was much lower than ADP.
8:04He was going way too close to Brock Bowers in my opinion.
8:08And honestly, the reason for this, it just comes down to math.
8:11McBride ran 120 more routes than any other tight end last year.
8:15And actually, he ran 100 more routes than any tight end in a single season since at least 2016.
8:21It's just going to be really difficult to sustain that kind of volume.
8:25Had McBride merely tied for the most routes run at the position last year, at his .46 PPR points per route run
8:32rate, he would have scored over three fewer points per game.
8:36He still would have had a good year, don't get me wrong.
8:40It just wouldn't have been as special as it was last year.
8:43And I'm not even factoring in McBride's 18 end zone targets, the second most by a tight end since 2016.
8:50Or that his points per route run rate was 11% lower when Marvin Harrison Jr.
8:54was on the field with him last season. As we know, Marv missed some time due to injury.
9:00The competition for targets in Arizona is not easy to beat out.
9:04The Cardinals have a tough schedule this year. And they're projected to be one of the worst offenses in the league according to every single sportsbook.
9:12Add in the volume regression that's likely coming. There's a lot working against Trey McBride repeating that performance year over year, or even coming close.
9:20So that's why I have him as a sell.
9:23Add Devon Vele. Jordan Tyson's on IR. The Saints wide receiver room, they only have four guys.
9:28It's Chris Alave, it's Devon Vele, Bryce Lance, and Barion Brown.
9:32Those last two guys are rookies. We might see something with those rookies eventually.
9:36But to start the season, I think we're going to see a lot of Devon Vele.
9:41And that's actually kind of intriguing. Rashid Shahid left the Saints after week 9 last year.
9:46And that's when Vele started seeing a lot more work in that offense.
9:50After failing to hit a 50% route share in a single game through week 9, he hit at least an 80% route
9:57share in all four games following that Shahid trade.
10:00And then he went down with a season ending injury.
10:03In those four games though, Vele posted a 1.64 yards per route run rate while seeing a target on nearly 20% of his routes.
10:11Those are pretty strong numbers. They're at least decent.
10:14During that stretch, his .33 PPR points per route run rate was only .06 points behind Chris Alave.
10:20And the opening month schedule for the Saints is pretty awesome.
10:23They get Detroit in week 1, that could be a great matchup.
10:27Then they get Baltimore, Vegas, and Atlanta. The Ravens are really the only spot where Vele could be limited.
10:33So if you're in a deep league, you need some baseline production from a wide receiver, I think Vele could deliver.
10:40Add Tajay Spears. This transaction is a little bit pro Tajay Spears, but it's also anti-Tony Pollard.
10:45Spears has been a reliable pass catcher over the last few years.
10:49He's hit a 12% target share in that Titans offense.
10:52He actually ranks 10th in running back target share over the last three seasons among running backs with 10 or more games played.
10:59So that's a big plus for his fantasy profile.
11:02And Tony Pollard has not been that efficient of a pass catcher over the last few years.
11:07He's been below a .8 yards per outrun rate.
11:10That can be predictive of future receiving success. Not only that, but in 2025, Pollard went from a near 65% route share
11:17with Spears' sideline during the first month of the season to a 39% share with Spears active.
11:23So it's clear that Spears was taking away pass catching work.
11:26But sure, there's a new coaching staff in Tennessee.
11:29Maybe they go a different direction with his backfield.
11:32But when you look at the preseason, all this was only reinforced.
11:36Spears actually played more snaps with Cam Ward than Tony Pollard did.
11:39And that was both overall and on early downs.
11:42Now that might be nothing. It might just be noise.
11:45But it's at least something to keep an eye on.
11:49And on a team like Tennessee, where they could see a lot of negative game scripts, that could lean more in Spears' direction.
11:56So I think it makes sense to have Spears on your bench, just to see how this backfield ends up being split.
12:03And he's still out there in more than 60% of Yahoo leagues.
12:07By Christian Watson We've been waiting for more of a full-time role for Christian Watson.
12:11Since he entered the league four years ago among wide receivers with 10 or more games played, Watson's route share ranks 95th.
12:18But his yards per outrun rate ranks in the top 20.
12:22His first downs per outrun rate is in the top 30.
12:25And he's commanded targets per outrun at a top 50 pace.
12:29Things were even better when you only look at 2025.
12:32It was probably the best season of his career.
12:35Watson ranked fifth in yards per outrun, and he saw a top 30 targets per outrun rate too.
12:40The biggest issue is that his route share placed him outside the top 60 wide receivers.
12:46Simple usage has always been an issue in Green Bay.
12:49That and the fact that over the last three years they've been bottom three in pass attempts.
12:54But this wide receiver room is shallower. Dontavian Wicks is gone.
12:58Romeo Dobbs is gone. We could end up seeing a career high route share for Christian Watson this year.
13:04And Josh Jacobs is sidelined. Jordan Love has been one of the league's most efficient passers by EPA per drop back over the last couple of seasons.
13:12You don't think they could lean more into the pass this year with Jacobs sidelined?
13:17And their opening schedule, it looks great. They get the Vikings in week one, followed by the Jets, Falcons, Buccaneers, Bears, Cowboys, and Lions.
13:24That's a healthy mix of poorly ranked secondaries and potential shootouts.
13:28So you might want to consider Christian Watson before it's too late.
13:32Add Jonah Coleman. It might take a minute for Jonah Coleman to be fantasy relevant.
13:36But in a lot of leagues, he's a player worth stashing.
13:40Ahead of Coleman on this depth chart is an oft-injured J.K.
13:43Dobbins, and the second-year back R.J. Harvey. R.J. Harvey struggled between the tackles last year.
13:48He was a good pass catcher, but he was not great on the ground.
13:53He ranked towards the bottom of the league and rushing yards over expected per rush.
13:57Coleman was a successful do-it-all back out of Washington.
14:00According to the ZAP model, he had a 72nd percentile best season reception share and an 88th percentile adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt rate.
14:08The pass catching numbers were there and those are predictive for NFL success.
14:13But he also looked good on the ground. His avoided tackles per attempt, according to PFF data, 89th percentile.
14:19His yards after contact per attempt, also 89th percentile.
14:21But like I said, we might have to wait a little bit for Coleman to get work in this offense.
14:28But I thought he was an undervalued prospect in a bad running back class.
14:32He can realistically back up both Dobbins and Harvey.
14:35There are multiple injury-related paths to more playing time for Coleman.
14:39Or he could just play himself into a role.
14:41So if your bench allows for it, I think he's a great stash.
14:45And he's still out there in about two-thirds of leagues.
14:49Add Kenyon Sadiq. Sadiq missed training camp in the preseason because of a sports hernia issue.
14:54And that led to fantasy managers completely forgetting about him during their drafts.
14:58And it's kind of crazy to me. It's been crazy to me all summer, especially in best ball leagues.
15:04Because Sadiq was a mid-first round pick who had one of the best NFL combines of all time.
15:10He's still only 21 years old. And his age-adjusted production profile in college really wasn't that bad.
15:15It wasn't flawless, but it wasn't bad. He's also playing for a team that doesn't have a locked-in number two pass-catching option.
15:22And that team's offensive coordinator, Frank Reich, he's had just one season out of ten as head coach or offensive coordinator where
15:29his team ranked outside the top 20 in tight end target share.
15:33His teams have ranked in the top five four different times.
15:36Sadiq is still out there in 85% of Yahoo leagues.
15:39He's expected to play in week one, although probably in a more limited role.
15:44But the bottom line is I don't think this kind of profile should just be sitting out on the waiver wire.
15:50Sell Brian Thomas. Look, overall, I'm bullish on the Jacksonville passing offense this year.
15:55But as I talked about on the early season schedule analysis episode over a month ago, their opening season schedule is very, very brutal.
16:02They'll open up the season against Cleveland and then it's Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Houston.
16:08Then they get their bye before a matchup against Indianapolis.
16:11According to PFF's secondary rankings, those teams rank 12th, 3rd, 1st, 18th, 4th, 2nd, and 16th.
16:16More specifically to this transaction about Brian Thomas, he's going to face perimeter matchups against Denzel Ward, Patrick Sertan, Christian Gonzalez, DJ
16:23Turner, Quinion Mitchell, Derek Stingley, and Sauce Gardner to open up the season.
16:27We might see some big plays and some spiked weeks from Brian Thomas through this stretch.
16:32But it's a very, very scary stretch. And it's going to make fantasy managers more than likely second guess their decision to draft him.
16:40Long term, I think Thomas can be fine. I'm just saying that a month and a half from now, two months from
16:47now, he's probably going to be cheaper than he is right now.
16:51Buy Jalen Waddell. I think Jalen Waddell is on the verge of having the best season of his career.
16:57The Broncos should provide a better infrastructure for production than what he had with the Dolphins.
17:02Not only is there no Tyreek Hill-like player ready to capture a 30% target share in the Denver offense, but the Broncos
17:09have ranked 12th in the NFL over the last two years with Bo Nix in touchdowns per game.
17:14And they've been 5th in pass attempts. Miami over the last two years, they've been 24th and 21st in those categories.
17:21Waddell's only played two seasons of his NFL career in an offense with a positive EPA per play rate.
17:27In those two seasons, he had yards per outrun rates of 2.59 and 2.63.
17:31Those are elite, elite numbers. Now it's true that Waddell hasn't been incredible at earning targets.
17:36He entered the league in 2021 and among wide receivers with 400 or more routes runs since then.
17:42While Waddell's yards per outrun ranks in the top 20, his targets per outrun is outside the top 30.
17:48With that being said, he's been borderline dominant when Tyreek Hill hasn't been on the field.
17:53Hill joined the Dolphins in 2022. Since then, with Hill off the field, Waddell's posted the second best yards per outrun rate
18:00in football while ranking 9th in targets per outrun.
18:03Now obviously there are other factors that play into something like that.
18:07Lack of alternatives in the offense, the system itself.
18:10There's a lot of stuff. But it does show us that there's a crazy high ceiling with Jalen Waddell.
18:16Now he's on a Denver team where he's likely going to play that Z role.
18:20We saw Troy Franklin play that role for a bit last year.
18:24There was like a 5-6 week stretch where he was seeing a minimum of 8 targets per game.
18:30Now imagine one of the most efficient wide receivers in football in that role.
18:34That's why there's a crazy high ceiling with Waddell this year.
18:38Add Chris Bell. This year's rookie wide receiver class, there were a lot of players with average to below average analytical profiles
18:45who got elevated to day 2 of the NFL draft.
18:48And because there were so many with decent draft capital, we're bound to see some of them hit.
18:54But their profiles were definitely iffier than usual. But one player who didn't have that iffy of a profile was Chris Bell.
19:01According to the ZAP model, Bell had a 69th percentile breakout score.
19:04That's totally fine for a day 2 selection. And that's by far the most predictive metric in the model.
19:10Meanwhile, most of his per route run metrics were at least average.
19:14He's a solid prospect who's built like A.J. Brown.
19:17He's not an A.J. Brown type prospect though, don't get me wrong.
19:21He's built like A.J. Brown. He would have gone a lot higher in the draft had he not torn his ACL last season.
19:28But he's also gotten some preseason run, he's healthier than most of us expected by this point, and he's playing for a
19:35Dolphins team that has the weakest wide receiver room that we've seen in a really long time.
19:41So all this is to say, if I were throwing a dart at a high upside player in an offense where there's
19:48a legit shot to become an alpha, yeah, Chris Bell would be that dart.
19:52You just have to give it a little bit of time.
19:55Buy Derrick Henry. These transactions won't be one size fits all.
19:59You're going to manage your team differently than how I manage one of my teams.
20:04Maybe you don't need a running back, so don't trade for a running back.
20:08Maybe you're thinking more about the future and you don't need that immediate production.
20:13Some managers prefer high risk, high upside teams where maybe they get off to a bumpy start, but then once they get
20:19into the playoffs, they have a super team because they took some chances early on.
20:24But other managers might want to go with a more comfortable approach where you just want to win right away.
20:31You want to win in September and then you'll figure things out later.
20:35If that sounds like you, then Derrick Henry is probably your guy.
20:38We'll see what he has left in the tank at 32 years old, but there's nothing to suggest that he's just going to turn to dust.
20:47Chances are we're going to see a healthy workload this year.
20:50And maybe, just maybe, this new coaching staff wants to use him more as a receiver.
20:55But a big reason to call him out on today's show is because the Ravens are set up so well to start the season.
21:03They kick things off as road favorites against the Colts.
21:06And then it's the Saints, Cowboys, Titans, Falcons and Browns.
21:09Even the matchups immediately following those six, they're potential high scoring matchups.
21:13Baltimore faces Cincinnati and Buffalo. So the schedule looks really, really good specifically for an early down grinder like Derrick Henry.
21:20I think that he could be a top five running back through the first month and a half of the fantasy season.
21:27Add Terrence Ferguson. So if you've been consuming late round fantasy football content this summer, you know what I'm about to say.
21:34Because I've talked about Ferguson quite a bit. Now look, chances are he's not going to be top two on the Rams and target share this year.
21:42Because they have Devontae Adams and Puka Nakua. But there is contingent injury upside there.
21:47And I also think this is kind of a unique situation.
21:50Because outside of those two wide receivers, the Rams really don't have a lot.
21:55There are two things though that are really intriguing about Terrence Ferguson's analytical profile.
21:59Previous season slot rate and previous season average depth of target can often help us find late round gems at tight end.
22:06And last year, Ferguson's ADOT was six yards higher than any other NFL tight end.
22:11And he effectively doubled up every other tight end on the Rams in slot rate.
22:16Look, from an X's and O's perspective, he's a chess piece for Sean McVay.
22:20He has length, he's unreal athletic, and he can line up all over the field.
22:25We saw that a little bit last year. And this is in an offense that should be one of the best in the league.
22:32And it should be towards the top of the league in heavy personnel usage.
22:37So there's a lot to like about Ferguson as a year two breakout.
22:41Add the Dallas Cowboys defense. So the start of the season is always really tough for choosing defensive streamers.
22:47Because drafters are focused on week one when they make those defensive choices in their draft.
22:52That means there aren't many defenses that are just readily available that are going to be useful.
22:57The Cowboys defense though this year should be better than it was last year.
23:02And they get the Giants this week. There's still a lot up in the air about this New York offense.
23:08And Jackson Dart ranked sixth last year in sacks taken per pressure.
23:12We'll see if Malik Nabors is able to go too.
23:15So as road favorites, I think you could do worse than Dallas' defense.
23:19But hopefully, we were able to simply draft a better one to start in week one.
23:24That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
23:28If you have subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are researching for it.
23:34Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
23:41Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the first 10 Trends episode of the season.
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