Late-Round Perspectives: Matthew Berry
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 7 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 4, 2026
Published
Fri, September 4, 2026
35
Player insights
26
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh JacobsMarShawn LloydChris OlaveColston LovelandDeVonta SmithKyler MurrayMalik NabersA.J. BrownBlake CorumBreece HallBrian Thomas Jr.Chase BrownChris GodwinChristian McCaffrey
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection60:17
Matthew Berry predicts AJ Brown will lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns and finish as a top-three fantasy wide receiver in 2025.
Insight pageBlake Corum
PositiveUsage36:13
The host notes that Blake Corum showed efficiency comparable to or better than Kyren Williams in the second half of last season, suggesting he could eat into the starter's workload.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveProjection92:25
Matthew Berry prefers Breece Hall over Jeremiah Love, ranking Hall one spot higher. Berry cites Hall's superior passing game usage as the deciding factor, noting that Hall provides a safer floor in PPR formats despite playing on a bad team.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveValue58:54
Matthew Berry prefers Brian Thomas Jr. over Chris Godwin, ranking him 32nd compared to Godwin's 34th, citing his youth, big-play ability, and higher touchdown ceiling as reasons to swing for upside.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveProjection60:00
Matthew Berry predicts Chase Brown will finish as a top-three running back in 2025 and lists him as one of his 'ride or die' players.
Insight pageChris Godwin
NegativeValue58:54
Matthew Berry ranks Chris Godwin 34th, noting that while he is a viable option, he lacks the same touchdown ceiling and upside as Brian Thomas Jr. at their current draft cost.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveProjection57:33
Matthew Berry prefers Olave over Malik Nabers, citing Olave's 29% target share and 82 yards per game with Taysom Hill as his quarterback last year, alongside a top-five finish in Dwayne McFarland's utilization score.
Insight pagePositiveProjection94:15
Matthew Berry prefers Chris Olave over Malik Nabers. Berry highlights Olave's 29% target share with Taysom Hill as the starting quarterback last year, noting that Olave averaged over 82 yards per game and was a top-5 wide receiver in the utilization score metric.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeProjection32:44
The host notes that knowing Christian McCaffrey's end-of-season stat line would be valuable because if it indicates poor performance, it would signal a need to pivot to backups like Kalon Black or Jordan James.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveProjection60:04
Matthew Berry predicts Colston Loveland will finish as the overall TE1 in 2025 and includes him as a 'ride or die' player.
Insight pageNegativeValue75:24
Matthew Berry considers Colston Loveland a potential 'ride or die' candidate but ultimately passes because he already has him ranked at TE3, which aligns with the consensus, making it difficult to 'get credit' for the call compared to other options.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveValue58:24
Matthew Berry views David Montgomery as a high-floor option for drafters who have already secured wide receivers and tight ends early and need stability at the running back position.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveValue37:27
Matthew Berry names DeVonta Smith as his 'ride or die' player for the current season, marking his 10th year of selecting a featured player for this designation.
Insight pagePositiveProjection59:58
Matthew Berry predicts DeVonta Smith will finish as a top-five wide receiver in 2025 and includes him as a 'ride or die' player.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveProjection60:22
Matthew Berry predicts Isaiah Likely will finish as a top-five fantasy tight end in 2025.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveSleeper32:26
Matthew Berry expresses high interest in Jordan Tyson for dynasty formats, noting that his return timeline and production level are key unknowns he would like to solve.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeUsage15:15
Matthew Berry notes that the Packers backfield, specifically the usage and roles of Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd, is a complex topic that fantasy analysts could discuss for an hour regarding roster construction and risk tolerance.
Insight pageNegativeProjection32:05
Matthew Berry identifies Josh Jacobs as a player whose end-of-season stat line would be highly valuable to know, noting that clarity on his role alongside Marshawn Lloyd would be particularly helpful for fantasy managers.
Insight pageNegativeBust88:42
Matthew Berry has zero shares of Josh Jacobs and ranks him at RB50 (147th overall) due to the extreme uncertainty surrounding his status. Berry warns that there is a wide range of outcomes, including a full-season suspension, and advises that drafters should assume they may get nothing out of him this year.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveProjection61:53
Matthew Berry highlights Justin Herbert as a breakout candidate, noting that the Chargers' passing offense will flow through Ladd McConkey and that Herbert is a superior quarterback to Tua Tagovailoa.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveProjection61:13
Matthew Berry includes Kenneth Walker as one of his 'ride or die' players for the 2025 season.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveProjection60:07
Matthew Berry predicts Kyler Murray will finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback in 2025.
Insight pagePositiveProjection67:14
Matthew Berry remains high on Kyler Murray for the current season, noting that he is 'in on Kyler this year again' despite previous misses, suggesting he believes in a bounce-back or big year for the quarterback.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeUsage35:44
The host compares the perceived fragility of Rashee Rice's fantasy profile to Kyren Williams, noting that while Williams is a solid player, advanced metrics suggest Blake Corum performed similarly well in the second half of last season.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveProjection60:11
Matthew Berry predicts Ladd McConkey will finish as a top-eight wide receiver in 2025 and includes him as a 'ride or die' player.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveBreakout32:18
Matthew Berry highlights Malik Nabers as a potential league winner, questioning whether he has the upside to finish as a top-five wide receiver or if he will perform closer to his current ADP.
Insight pageNegativeProjection57:47
Matthew Berry expresses caution regarding Malik Nabers due to uncertainty surrounding his health and the offensive scheme under Matt Nagy.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
NegativeUsage15:15
Matthew Berry highlights that MarShawn Lloyd's college profile and his potential role alongside Josh Jacobs in the Packers' offense are significant subjects for fantasy analysis, though difficult to synthesize into short media segments.
Insight pageNegativeRole32:05
Matthew Berry suggests that understanding the backfield split between Josh Jacobs and Marshawn Lloyd is a key uncertainty that would benefit from knowing end-of-season outcomes.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper80:48
Matthew Berry ranks Marshawn Lloyd as RB25 (65th overall), viewing him as a high-upside flex play. Berry highlights the Packers' productive running back role under Matt LaFleur and notes that while Lloyd's NFL production is unproven, his college profile showed elite ability to force missed tackles (92nd percentile) and he is 'electric' with the ball in his hands.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection60:12
Matthew Berry predicts Matthew Stafford will throw at least 15 fewer touchdowns and finish outside the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks in 2025.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveValue62:24
Matthew Berry identifies Quentin Johnston as an undervalued player in the Chargers' offense, noting that he will likely be the number two receiver and will benefit from deep shots schemed by the coaching staff.
Insight pageRashee Rice
PositiveBust33:17
Matthew Berry and the host discuss the high level of uncertainty surrounding Rashee Rice, citing health concerns, off-field issues, target competition from Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce, and potential changes in the Chiefs' offensive philosophy as reasons for skepticism.
Insight pageTyjae Spears
PositiveValue58:14
Matthew Berry recommends Tyjae Spears for drafters who have already secured a rock-solid running back one or two, as Spears offers more upside than David Montgomery.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveProjection61:38
Matthew Berry is high on Zay Flowers, noting he is on his 'love list' and that the only question is whether he can convert his talent and role into more touchdowns.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:32That's LifeLock.com, code FOOTBALL. Matthew Berry is the founder of Fantasy Life who hosts the Fantasy Football Happy Hour.
0:37He recently spent time with NBC Sports and he spent 15 years at ESPN helping turn the game of fantasy football into the monster that it is today.
0:45He's a writer, a dad, and he once played a very important role in Avengers Endgame.
0:49These are his late round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by DraftKings.
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1:20The crown is yours. I did Jeff Ma and Rufus Peabody's podcast yesterday, and they said that Jeff told me that he
1:26had asked you and that you were busy. And so I was number two, which is fine.
1:31But I, which of course, you know, you're getting Matthew Barry, you're getting Matthew Barry.
1:35But it reminded me, so you and I have known each other for a really long time now.
1:40Yeah. And I mean, you knew me when I was in my like early twenties at this point, but.
1:45I knew you or I was aware of you when you were literally just publishing like the late round QB guide.
1:51Yeah. Like I think on Twitter. And then I think I met you when you started at Numberfire.
1:56Yes. Like we went back and forth on Twitter.
1:58Like we argued about something. I forget what we, I forget what we argued about.
2:03Yeah. But I know two things. I know two things.
2:05We went back and forth on Twitter a little bit.
2:08I was a little more fiery on Twitter back then.
2:11I think we all were, were we not? Like this is what it was back then, right?
2:16But two things. I think number one is, is I think you were right.
2:19I'll just, I, I, I forget what the argument was, but I, I'm pretty sure it was about like late round quarterback value or something like that.
2:27And I think you were right, by the way, you've definitely been proven right over the years.
2:32So number one is you definitely were right in that argument.
2:35So I apologize for whatever dumb take I had back then.
2:38Like you sent me a really sweet DM and like we, like we just started, you know, yeah.
2:43DMing back and forth or texting back and forth.
2:45And so, um, yeah, so I've known you for a very long time.
2:49Not as long. However, as I've known Jeff Ma, I've known Jeff Ma for, I mean, over 20 years, him and Rufus are brilliant.
2:55Well, he texted me and he's just like, he's like, yo, can you do my podcast?
3:00And I was, he texted me while I was on air doing my own show doing right.
3:05Fantasy football, happy hour live at noon on YouTube.
3:07I'll plug that. And I'm a company man. And when I got off it, I was just like, ah, sorry, it's been a crazy day.
3:14When do you need me for a long? And he's just like, oh, we already replaced you.
3:19So, okay. So I didn't know it was with you, but good choice.
3:22It reminded me because like, I haven't seen, uh, Rufus in particular.
3:26I know Rufus more than I had. Like, I think I had like a couple of meetings randomly with Jeff and I
3:32was at FanDuel at number fire and stuff, but Rufus, I had seen way back at one of the Sloan conferences and
3:38it reminds me, I then told them that I was talking to you today.
3:42It reminded me, you might, you probably don't even remember this at all, but back then, back then you were, you know, Matthew Barry to me, right?
3:49Obviously the biggest name in fantasy sports. Now you're just Matthew to me, you know, it's a, it's a different kind of relationship.
3:55But like, I remember we went to a Celtics game and we were in a box and the number fire guys went
4:02and then like Rufus and his team were there and stuff.
4:05And you walked in and you came and you saw me and in a very loving and like play play, it wasn't
4:11like you were just like, what are you doing here?
4:13You know, like a very, like just fun, you know, and it was one of those moments for me where I'm like,
4:20the thing that I've always respected about the way that you approach things is that, you know, a lot of people who
4:26are at the, at the top of their industry can very easily just ignore other folks who are trying to climb up in that industry.
4:33But you know, the smaller players and the analysts and the writers and such as they're coming up.
4:38And I think that's, you know, it's been something that I've tried to pass on to as I've, you know, gotten to,
4:44to, to meet people and, you know, they're asking for advice and all that kind of stuff.
4:48But I think that like you set that precedent very well, I have to say.
4:52And the fact that like, you're doing big things, you're obviously doing what many people aspire to do.
4:57And yet you can still joke around with, you know, 25 year old me at a Celtics game, you know, wondering why
5:04I'm sitting in that box with you. So, well, I appreciate you saying that.
5:07I do remember, I do remember, I don't remember, I didn't remember that interaction, but I do remember that game.
5:13I remember Adam Kaplan's a buddy of mine who was running at Numberfire at the time.
5:17So I remember I was talking with him and there were some other like investor types there and, you know, and Rufus
5:23and anyway, but well, I appreciate you saying that.
5:26I think it's important when I was just starting out, I remember when I was just starting out, people that I really
5:32respected in the industry, you know, and I started out doing baseball, but like Matthew Puglia, who's still at, still at Roto
5:38World, a legend, Matthew Puglia or Ron Chandler, Baseball HQ, another legendary guy.
5:42Like these were people that were very nice to me when I first started that were, you know, very kind to me.
5:48And so I've, you know, and other people within the industry that, you know, you know, guys like Rick Wolf or whatever
5:54that, you know, that maybe not everyone knows, but people within the industry know Peter Shanky, who now is my, you know,
6:00was running Roto Wire at the time is now the CEO of Fantasy Life.
6:04So people like that, that were incredibly gracious to me when I was, you know, just like some guy that was writing
6:10a column on Roto World that no one had ever heard of.
6:13And so, so I've tried very hard to do that.
6:16I'm a big believer in, you know, pay it forward and, you know, try to, you know, fantasy football has been really good to me, JJ.
6:23I mean, it's everything that I have in my life.
6:26I'm not being facetious here. Every single thing I have in my life has more or less come because of fantasy football.
6:32Fantasy football is what got me out of LA to ESPN, where I met my wife, where I have my family.
6:38You know, I, you know, I, I have, you know, where I live, played for paid for with fantasy football money.
6:44You know what I mean? Like this set that I'm, you know, that I'm sitting at, you know, and any, everything that
6:50I've done fantasy life has been built on the back of, you know, fantasy football.
6:54And so, so it's meaningful to me. And so I feel like it's important to me to try to give back to
7:00an industry that's been so good to me. And I remember what it was like when I was struggling.
7:05And so I've tried very hard to be, you know, helpful and, you know, a number of people you've never actually, I
7:11don't believe you've ever done this, but I cannot tell you how many people in the industry have DM to me or
7:18texted me and said, hey, I'm, I'm in a negotiation with my company or, or with another thing, or I'm thinking about it.
7:24I'm thinking about leaving this company to go out on my own, or I'm, you know, just, hey, can I talk about the business with you?
7:31Can I talk about, can you make an introduction for me over here?
7:35Can you do this for me? And I always do it.
7:38I always say yes. Not like I'm some saint, but just again, because I think that's important because people did that for me when I was starting out.
7:45And I think those people that I help, I, hopefully they'll do it to other people.
7:50And just again, again, you just kind of try to pay it forward.
7:53And it's always, it always remains private. I don't, I never talk about anything I ever talked with any of the people,
8:00but so I appreciate you saying that and truthfully swinging back to, to Jeff and Rufus.
8:04And I'm going to, I'm going to kind of, I'm going to circle back on two things here and tie it into
8:10the advice that we're giving the young people as we sit here on, you know, which is, you know, Jeff's an old
8:16friend and I would have been happy to help him out.
8:19But the truth is, is that you're actually, I've never listened to bet the process, but just knowing Jeff is like one
8:25of the smartest people I know in my entire life.
8:28Right. Right. He's truly brilliant. Like he, right. MIT, like if people don't know Jeff Ma's story, like he was, you know,
8:34if you ever see the movie 21 or, or read the book, bringing down the house about the, you know, the MIT
8:40card counting kids that took Vegas for millions, like Jeff Ma was the center of that.
8:45That was, that was his story. The movie 21 is about Jeff Ma's life or a portion of his life.
8:50And so, and Rufus is, you know, a professional better at the highest level.
8:54And like, they're both really, really smart. And so I would actually think you and the way you approach sports and fantasy
9:00from your analytical point of view, I you're, you're actually a better fit for that show than I am.
9:05I appreciate it. Yeah, I know, but it's true.
9:08You know what I mean? Like, and this is the part about circling back to advice.
9:12I think it's really important because if you're a content creator and you're trying to get into the space, I, and whether
9:18it's fantasy or whatever, I think it's really important to know what you are and know what you're not.
9:24Yes. You know what I mean? And like, I, yeah, like a quote that I use all the time.
9:29I've written about this before, you know, when I was just starting out, like I was trying to like be, you know,
9:35I'd try to be like super stat heavy and then I would try to be like Mr.
9:40X's and O's. And I was trying to find myself.
9:43There's a Jimmy Buffett quote where they asked him about his success.
9:46And I'm a massive, you know, as people know, I'm a massive Jimmy Buffett fan.
9:50Uh, and saw 45 shows of his before he passed away.
9:53But Jimmy said in an interview once, he said, you know, he's like, I'm a, I'm an okay guitar player and a so, so singer.
10:00But what I'm truly great at is being Jimmy Buffett.
10:03And I thought about that. I've thought about that quote a lot, you know?
10:07And, and like the minute I heard that quote, and this was many years ago, I just sort of relaxed.
10:12Yeah. And I said, oh, cause like, you know, I'm pretty good with stats, but like, I'm not as good with you.
10:18I'm not, you're better at stats than I am.
10:21Like significantly better. Like I'm not, I'm not as good as you or Mike Clay or, you know, some of the people
10:27that, you know, I really respect in our industry that are really, really, you know, Dwayne McFarland.
10:31Yeah. Over at Fantasy Life. You know, Dwayne, Dwayne would laugh at my Excel spreadsheet, you know?
10:36And so like, I'm not as good at numbers as people like they're like, I can watch film, but there are definitely
10:42like, there are ex players that are, you know, there are people that can break down film better than I can.
10:48And, you know, I have a decent amount of sources at this point in my career around the NFL in terms of
10:54coaches, general manager, that sort of thing. But I'm not Adam Schefter, you know, but what I am, I think I'm really good at being Matthew Barry.
11:02And I've found, you know, a decent amount of people that, that enjoy Matthew Barry.
11:06And so I've just, I've just tried to sort of be me and give my advice and give it in a way
11:12that I find, you know, that I think is entertaining and enjoyable and, you know, easily digestible and, you know, understanding sort of my audience.
11:19And I think you specifically also do a really good job of that.
11:22I think, you know, everything you've built with Late Round, I think you've really catered.
11:27You've developed a community around yourself. You've developed a business that, you know, I think you, you understand the lane that you're in.
11:33Right. And you, you just, you know, you nail that lane as opposed to trying to be something you're not.
11:38And that's, and I think sometimes people in our industry try to be something they're not, if that makes sense.
11:44I would 100% agree. I mean, I think authenticity is unbelievably important for anything you're doing, let alone if you're going to
11:50be consumer facing the way that we are, right?
11:53People can see right through it. I'm not going to sit here and pretend like I'm grinding film the way that some other folks are.
11:59You know, I'm watching every game. I can tell you what I am doing and what I, what I can provide, but
12:06I'm not going to pretend to be something that I'm not.
12:09I'm not, you know, I'm going to lean into the stuff that I think that I can do well.
12:14And hopefully, you know, people resonate with it and we can kind of go from there.
12:18Also don't sell yourself short. Or I say this about like field Yates all the time too.
12:23Yeah. I've said this to him, but like being able to do what you guys have done in front of a camera
12:29is far more difficult than anyone can even comprehend.
12:32Like just being able to speak consistently, coherently, be able to get a thought out in a 30 second clip.
12:37That's why like, you know, I've done TV. I've done radio.
12:40I like the mediums that I do my stuff on.
12:43I love podcasting, for instance, because I know that the way my brain works and I know the way that I want to talk about things and such.
12:51And so, again, going back to like doubling down on what you know that you can do or what you feel most
12:57comfortable doing, I think is important even from that perspective.
13:00Because like you go watch like field on TV or you on TV, but well, you know, I don't want to get your ego too, too high.
13:07We're talking to you. Fair enough. Field is terrific.
13:09I literally just had field on my show today.
13:12Field is terrific. There's no question. And he like, there's no, there's no stuttering.
13:16There's no stumbling. It's just, he knows what he's doing.
13:19He's getting the point across. And obviously there's a lot of practice and, you know, reps and getting to that point.
13:24But he's just so good at what he does.
13:27It's like the way that like Ryan Seacrest is right, where he's just so phenomenally good and you can't pick apart.
13:33Like you can sit there and be like, oh, he's just a host.
13:36That's all he's been. It's really hard. It's not easy to do that kind of stuff.
13:41And that's why, you know, he's as good as getting as much money as he's getting doing that stuff.
13:46Yeah. I mean, what people don't realize is that, you know, while field or myself or whoever is doing something, doing that
13:52on TV, you know, you saw me on, you know, if you saw me on football night in America last year, so
13:58what you're seeing, so I'm sitting here talking about, here's my parlay that I like, or here's a player that I like,
14:04or here's, you know, here's a, you know, a prop that I like.
14:08And so what you don't, so you hear me talking about, well, I think this and I think this, and I think
14:14that, but what you don't realize is that I've got something in my ear and an IFB and somebody is in my
14:20ear saying, oh, you know, over to Maria throw to, you know what I mean?
14:24Like, okay, graphic 10, nine, eight, they're literally counting down and you've got to be off the air at zero, like, you know, eight, seven.
14:31And so you're talking while they're in your ear counting down five, four, three, two, one, Maria, you know what I mean?
14:37And then like, you're, you're hearing that in your ears while you're trying to talk and appear smooth.
14:42And then, you know, so they know, and you know, whether it's football night in America or sports center or NFL live
14:48or any of the programs that field or I, or other people do, that's all happening because, you know, here's this graphics
14:54coming, here's this video that's coming, you know, you need to throw over here.
14:58You need to send it to this person, you know, sound on tape 10, nine, you know, five back and forth, three, two back to you, you know?
15:06And so anyone that's on TV doing that. And I think the other, the piece of it is, is like being able
15:12to do that in an entertaining, you know, way, right?
15:15Because, you know, we could, we could talk about Josh Jacobs and Marshawn Lloyd, right?
15:19The Packers backfield, right? We could talk about that.
15:21And you and I could do an entire hour podcast on that in terms of, no, we could like, and not just
15:28you and I, but like literally anyone in the fantasy community that's like, you know, that's a, that's a real person could
15:34do, you know, in terms of roster construction and risk tolerance and, you know, what we think about Lloyd and what was
15:40his profile coming out of college and, you know, what are the prospects for job, you know, for Jacobs?
15:45And do we think Caleb Johnson gets an opportunity finally and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
15:49We could literally do an hour, but then you go on whether it's sports center or football night in America, wherever, any
15:56program, they're going to be like, okay, great. Need you to talk about Josh Jacobs and Marshawn Lloyd.
16:01And you've got 30 seconds. It's impossible. So trying to synthesize a bunch of complex thoughts into a, you know, into literally
16:0730 seconds where it doesn't, where it doesn't sound like you're doing to the, you know, where you're, where you're talking slow
16:13and confident so that the viewer who may not be fully paying attention can appreciate it.
16:17So yeah, that there is a skill set. I mean, you know, I've written about this before I have, I wrote a
16:23column about sort of my, my 10 biggest pieces of advice to get the career you want.
16:28And one of the things I wrote is just about, you know, just being able to be versatile and being good.
16:34And like, I, I, you know, listen, I, like when I was at ESPN or NBC, you know, I, I had varying
16:40degrees of ability at all these things. But one of the things that I think ESPN appreciated about me and NBC appreciated
16:46about me and that's served me well in my career is that whether it was a 32nd hit on sports center, whether
16:52it was an eight minute radio hit, whether it was a, you know, my own half hour show, whether it was a,
16:58you know, three hour fantasy football now, or whether it was a 5,000 word column or a 45 second TikTok, like I
17:04could do the content within that format, you know, at a competent level on all of them.
17:09Again, I'm better at some of them than I am with others, but I was reasonably competent and, you know, reasonably entertaining at all of them.
17:16And so that's the, that's the key, just being able to be, to be good at all that stuff.
17:21Or if you know, you're not, you know, JJ, as you said, like, Hey, I'm more comfortable in this format versus this.
17:27Like, you know, I'd much rather do a podcast where I can control everything versus live TV.
17:32And that's not a knock on you. It's just, but again, knowing what you're good at and knowing what you're not and
17:38trying to do more of what you're good at.
17:41Yes, exactly. Exactly. I do want to ask you, like, what do you think when you look at the fantasy landscape now,
17:47this could be industry related, you know, business related, but this could also just be, you know, analysis related.
17:52What do you think has changed the most through the years, last 10, 15 years within the space?
17:57You know, obviously it's changed, but what do you think is like the biggest thing?
18:01Like if you were to place yourself in 2010 versus right now, what would you be most shocked by?
18:06God, I mean, I mean, how does, we could spend the whole hour just on that.
18:11I mean, the thing that I would be most, I was going to answer something different until you phrased it.
18:16Like, what's the thing I'd be most shocked by?
18:19The thing I would be most shocked by is the fact that I'm in Avengers Endgame.
18:23I mean, like, and not, and I'm not bringing that up in a, like, I just reminded you, I'm in a big
18:29movie, but no, it's not that it's not being a bag like that.
18:33It is the fact that I'm in that movie entirely because the director, Joe Russo is in like four fantasy leagues and is a big fan of mine.
18:41He read love hate for years and we got introduced by a mutual friend and we became friends.
18:46And then he would text me for fantasy advice.
18:48And then we like, we grabbed dinner a couple of times and then we played in a fantasy league together.
18:54And then he was just like, Hey, you want to be in the movie that opportunity?
18:58Just the idea. And, and by the way, I mean, yes, he's a super powerful guy.
19:03So, but just the fact that like Marvel wasn't like, wait, what you're like, you want to give a cameo to the fantasy football guy.
19:10Wait, are you kidding me? You know what I mean?
19:12The fact that that didn't happen or maybe it did.
19:15And Joe was like, yeah, too bad. I'm doing it.
19:18I don't know what happened, but whatever. I'm in the movie.
19:21And that's the thing that would shock me the most, but at a larger level, JJ, I think the thing that shocked
19:27me the most is just how prevalent fantasy football has become.
19:30I always knew it would be popular. I always knew, you know, this is something really fun.
19:35I always knew there was a business case. I spent so many of my early years at ESPN.
19:40I got to ESPN in 2007. So 2010, I'm still like banging the table and being like, you got to do, can
19:46we do a fantasy segment on NFL live? Can we do one on sports center?
19:50Can we, you know, can I get on, you know, Mike and Mike or the herd, you know, with Colin, what can
19:56I, you know, how can we do fantasy? It's something that's important to our audience.
20:00It's something that's important to the business of ESPN, a bunch of different ways.
20:04It's something that's really popular that if we, if we can grow it, it will be, you know, beneficial for everyone.
20:10So, you know, I knew it was, I knew it was fun and addicting and that if we could get in front
20:16of more people, more people would do it. But like, for me, I, you know, I sit here and I, you know,
20:22I literally, this is the first thing that popped in my mind.
20:25But this morning I was on Instagram, I was scrolling Instagram and I follow Kaylee Hartung.
20:30So my friend, she was my colleague at ESPN and Mike now was my colleague at NBC.
20:34So I've known Kaylee for a zillion years. She's awesome.
20:37And one of the things she does is, you know, she does the Amazon Thursday night, but she's also part of the today show on her Instagram story.
20:45She had something about like, you know, Hey, Kaylee Hartung, you know, and it was like a thing for the today show,
20:51like, you know, Kaylee Hartung helping up this fantasy draft.
20:54And at the end of the year, she's going to be part of this team, you know, this league's loser punishment.
21:00I didn't watch the piece. I just saw like a little behind the scenes thing on her Instagram, but I'm just like, but just think about that.
21:07Take for it. Like if you told me in 2010, Oh, by the way, one of the reporters of the today show
21:13is going to do some sort of segment with a fantasy league draft.
21:17And it sounds like maybe they'll follow this league throughout the year or there'll be a payoff at the end where she,
21:23she's part of the loser punishment or something like, like any of that stuff.
21:27Like you, you know, you see like whatever bar stool or, you know, all the social media accounts do it now all
21:33with, you know, all the, the fantasy loser punishments that's become part of our culture.
21:37Right. I wrote about it in, in fantasy life in my book.
21:40And it was one of the things that I tried to, I sold, which we can get into that in a second,
21:46but like the fantasy punishments is one of the things that helped me sell the book because, uh, the publishers thought it was funny.
21:53And so it's now become this thing where it's like, literally it's part of our culture everywhere, right?
21:58Everywhere. Other things that I would say is I think in terms of the analysis, the, the analysis has gotten a lot better, a lot sharper and smarter.
22:06We've had people that have pushed the ball forward, waiting on quarterback seems like, you know, right now it's like, Oh yeah,
22:12yeah, of course everyone waits on a quarterback, but like when you, when you push that theory for the first time, everyone's like, you know what?
22:19No, you have to draft, you know, uh, a superstar quarterback and like, you know, like, and so I just think there's
22:25a lot of people that have, that have really pushed the ball forward in terms of, you know, uh, data analysis and
22:31just, you know, how smart and detailed the advice has gotten.
22:34Yeah. One of the things that I sort of, that made me, that made my career is when I was starting out
22:40in 07 that I was like, you know, I was comfortable on TV.
22:44I was comfortable in front of a microphone. And there were a lot of the people that were doing fantasy analysis and
22:50there weren't very many back then, but a lot of the people that were doing that just weren't comfortable on TV.
22:56They were comfortable behind a screen writing, whatever. Right.
22:58But now, you know, thanks to podcasts, thanks to YouTube, you know, thanks to like, you know, not just ESPN, but a
23:04lot of different places having fantasy shows, fantasy TV shows, or at least, you know, digital, digital shows.
23:09Like there's a lot more people that are good on camera, right.
23:13Good in front of a microphone that are good on the radio, right.
23:16We've got a 24 seven fantasy sports radio channel that, you know, fantasy life.
23:20We've got a show on and, and a lot of the people on that show on that channel that, you know, do great work.
23:27So the fact that there's more people doing that, the fact that there's so many people that when I started out, the
23:33idea that you could make a living. Yeah. Fantasy football analysis was just like, well, maybe if you got a job with
23:39like Yahoo or ESPN, like one of the big boys.
23:42I mean, even, even I was making, you know, I was making nothing at number fire, right.
23:47It was a startup. You know, I was, I was young.
23:50It didn't really, I just wanted to do it.
23:52But even when I got that job, I had a full-time job working in the fantasy space.
23:57There were probably only, there were probably less than 20 people on earth that were like doing it full-time at the time, you know, like that.
24:04And like when I, when I give it that perspective, it's kind of crazy because now we obviously have a lot more,
24:10you know, it's very difficult still to be able to do this as a job.
24:14And I think both of us are grateful for that every single day, but for sure, you know, back then it was,
24:20it was like, there was literally like nothing. There was just not a lot of this going on, you know, at all in terms of the full-time jobs.
24:28Right. And now you see, you know, we did this with focus, you know, and like the footballers, like there's a lot,
24:34you know, there's podcasts at the ringer guys, like, you know there's, they're doing live events.
24:39People are, you know, we're selling out shows for people to listen to other people talk about fake football.
24:44Yeah. You know what I mean? They're like, you know what I want to do tonight?
24:48I'm going to pay, I don't, I don't know what the tickets cost, but here's 20 bucks and I'm going to get
24:54a sitter and me and the wife, we're going to go, um, watch Andy, Jason and Mike.
24:59Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I mean like, which is awesome, you know?
25:02And so I think just the, the proliferation of that, you know, so many people, there's a lot of really good websites
25:08out there, including yours where people are making a living being out on their own, you know, I'm making a go of it with fantasy life.
25:15And, you know, the other thing that I would say, so just sort of the, you know, the popularity, I think the
25:21analysis has gotten a lot better, the mainstream and also the other big thing that's changed the most is information, information and technology.
25:28Right. So technology just in just the, you know, the improvement of the apps and, you know, you know, that's an easy
25:34one, but just information, you know, when you think about Twitter back in the day, again, I sound like, you know, back
25:40in my day, you know, we had to walk 12 miles uphill both ways.
25:44So, you know, I know I sound like, you know, some old dude, but I felt like JJ, even back when you
25:50were just starting at number fire, like there weren't a lot of people, um, giving out information, you know what I mean?
25:56Like in terms of, and now, you know, the, the key was trying to find information.
26:00Wait, who's going to be the backup running back?
26:03Hey, you know, how, how hurt is that hammy?
26:05You know? And now I feel like it's, it's less about finding information.
26:09There's nothing but information. Exactly. You know, Twitter's it's, look, now it's about trying to sift through the information and being like, I believe that guy.
26:16I don't know what's pertinent. Yeah. What's pertinent. That's, you know, again, like, you know, it's just become this 24 seven news
26:22cycle, like, you know, best shape of his career.
26:25They're all in the best shape of their career, you know?
26:28So it's trying to figure out what's real and what's not versus that's been a big shift, I think as well.
26:34Yeah. Yeah. I actually tweeted about that yesterday where Graziano had his bold predictions piece that he wrote on ESPN and you
26:40know, it was really interesting information and such, but all of these aggregators and all these news sites were pulling it in
26:46as if it was a factual news items, you know, like one of them was like how, how he believed that Blake
26:52Corum could be the, the one a in the backfield.
26:55No, it was a bold prediction that he was writing about.
26:58Right. Like it was this idea that Blake Corum played really well.
27:01And if he continues to play well, then this might be able to happen as opposed to reporting it as this factual,
27:07you know, Blake Corum is going to be the one a in the backfield, you know?
27:12And so that's, that's, that's one of the, you know, one of the things going, going back to the, like sifting through what's relevant.
27:18It feels like that kind of stuff is everywhere right now.
27:21Well, yeah. And the aggregation stuff is like out of control.
27:24Right. And so like, I get it on some level, like it's, you know, it's unfortunate.
27:29That's sort of the way the business is gone, but like, you know, it's just, I mean, I get aggregated.
27:34Right. And it's like, you know, I wrote about this, like, you know, I wrote my, again, I'm, I'm, I'm not meaning
27:40to be as, as, as pluggy as I probably sound as you want.
27:44No, but like, so my, my love hate column this year, my preseason love hate column, which is on fantasy life.com.
27:50But like, I wrote about that, like, because I was still on a contract with NBC.
27:54NBC was making changes to football night in America.
27:57You know, there was like nine people on it last year.
28:00They're going to four this year. And so, and my contract was coming up with NBC.
28:04So my status with them was uncertain. And so they, you know, a website wrote a big articles like Matthew Barry, unlikely
28:10to return to, you know, football night in America, whatever, like, or likely out at football night in America.
28:15Yeah. And it was just sort of like, well, I'm still under contract and like, we're still having conversations and, you know,
28:22and NBC knew, like we'd talked for a year about, Hey, like, I really want to go, you know, try to build up fantasy life.
28:28Like maybe there's a way to, for us to still do something together, but you know, entrepreneurial owning and promoting and doing
28:35fantasy life is really important to me. That's why I left ESPN in the first place was I wanted to be entrepreneurial.
28:41I wanted to build my own thing. And so, and then what happened is, is that that article from awful announcing, which
28:47if you read the article was very balanced and fair, but the article, but the headline was I'm out at football night
28:53in America, but the out, the article was just, Hey, they're making changes rumored to, you know, getting Mike Tomlin.
28:58Some people have announced that they're leaving Barry still under contract, but it'll end soon.
29:03And so there's conversations, blah, blah. It's all very fair, you know, and, you know, and talk about, and everyone knows Barry
29:09wants to be entrepreneurial and, you know, owns his site fantasy life.
29:12And it was a very fair article to me.
29:14And then, but like, you know, all these newspapers then picked it up and like, it got spun and spun and spun.
29:21And like, literally to the point where like, like the New York post and all these other places picked it up.
29:26And like, like to the point where my daughter is like a day or so after the article came out, my daughters,
29:32my 14 year old daughters came to me and said, uh, dad, did you get fired?
29:37Right. You know? And like, cause everyone in class was talking about it and you're like, you know, and it was like,
29:43no, I didn't get fired, you know? And anyway, so yeah, the aggregation thing is, is crazy.
29:48And, you know, I mean, like I literally did an interview the other day and, um, I was asked a direct question on a podcast anyway.
29:55So, um, where I just answered the question and then article, anyway, whatever.
29:58Right. They turned it into something, they turned it into something that wasn't, wasn't intended.
30:03Yeah, no, it was, it's all I did was answer.
30:05I was asked a question directly and they, and I answered the question honestly, cause that's how I do it.
30:11And then they just, uh, yeah, there was a bunch of articles about like, Oh, Matthew Barry's doing this and doing this.
30:17And it's like, no, I, right. Um, so yeah, so I live in that world, uh, as we all do.
30:23So it's, but that's another change since, uh, since when I started.
30:26Yeah. Yeah. Or since 2010, I guess. Yeah. A hundred percent.
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31:49Let me ask you a kind of broad hypothetical fantasy football question here.
31:52So if you were allowed to know the final stat line of any player in fantasy, you know, their end of season
31:58stat line right now, what player would you want to know?
32:01Well, I mean, the, you know, the easy and cheating answer is Josh Jacobs.
32:05I mean, right. I mean, like, you know, Josh Jacobs and Marshawn Lloyd, like that would be helpful, I think, but taking
32:11that one aside, like the two names that came to mind, I'll just, I'll give you two.
32:16I know you asked for only one Malik neighbors, right.
32:19Could be a league winner. Is he a top five fantasy wide receiver or is he more like where he's going right now?
32:25Like, and then Jordan Tyson, like I'm a ton of Jordan Tyson and dynasty.
32:29I love Jordan Tyson. You know, so when does, when does he come back?
32:33How productive is he? So those would be the two that I might say right there is a neighbors and Tyson.
32:39Yeah. I like those answers. I thought one guy that I thought of was CMC just because we know that he can break fantasy.
32:45And if, and if we see that end of season stat line and it's garbage, then we know, okay, we're going to
32:51throw some darts at, you know, Kalon black or Jordan James and such just to see, but I, I like the, the,
32:57uh, the neighbors and Tyson stuff that I remember I went on your show and I talked to about Jordan Tyson as being one of the targets.
33:05And obviously, you know, a couple of weeks later, what people thought was inevitable ended up, uh, being inevitable with that, with that hammy.
33:12I'll give you one more too. That I think would be a good one is where she rice.
33:17Oh, that's another one. Yeah. Yeah. I don't, I still, I, even to this day, I don't know what to do with Rishi rice.
33:23Yeah. It's, it's, it's tough. I did a Reddit AMA and one of the questions that I got asked was why isn't anyone talking about Rishi rice?
33:31He's like, I, you know, I follow a bunch of guys and I just feel like no one's talking about Rishi rice.
33:37And I said, I think it's because I don't want to speak for the fantasy industry as a whole, but if I
33:43had to guess, I know why I haven't spoken a lot about Rishi rice is because I just don't know.
33:48And that, you know, like, honestly, like, I don't know what to say.
33:52And that, and that, and then most of what I would have to say is fairly negative.
33:57Right. I, I don't know how healthy he is.
33:59I don't know how bad the off the field issues are.
34:02I don't know what his role is going to be relative to a healthy Xavier worthy.
34:07Right. And, you know, Walker, a, and right. And Ken Walker that they paid a lot of money to that.
34:12They clearly want to make running the ball and emphasis how healthy is my homes.
34:16We don't know how healthy my homes is. You've got, you know, Kelsey coming back for his swan song.
34:22You know what I mean? Just, there's just so many in a, in a division where we think it's going to be
34:28a lot more competitive for the chiefs than it has been, you know, during their dynasty run where like, you know, obviously the Broncos were great last year.
34:35We liked the chargers a lot. Yeah. I think the Raiders will be more competent than they were last year.
34:41Like, like he's great, but like, if he doesn't get the volume that he's gotten previously, like, is he, I mean, there's
34:47just, there's so many unknowns with Rasheed Rice. And you know, if you tell me he's a top five fantasy wide receiver
34:53this year, I'd be like, I get it. Yeah.
34:56Like, nah, like it was, he was in and out of the lineup and he's just kind of like, kind of like what Xavier worthy was last year.
35:03Like a couple of, you know, decent games, but mostly disappointment.
35:06I'd be like, yeah, I see that too. I think that a lot of that is like our subconscious.
35:12That's like, we know that Rasheed Rice is not like when you look at who he's drafted amongst.
35:17Right. And I understand why he's drafted where he's drafted, of course, because when he's been healthy, he's been that like PPR scammer, right.
35:23Where he gets those low a dot looks and he's good after the catch and he can make things happen.
35:29But the problem is like, we of course want to evaluate talent and real football because talent is what's longer lasting.
35:35And it's not as, you know, fickle and so messed up, let's say from one year to the next and fragile.
35:40Right. And I think with Rasheed Rice, we're looking at a fairly fragile profile.
35:44It's the same thing that people have kind of leaned into with Kyron Williams over the last couple of years where it's like, he's a solid player.
35:52I mean, I would probably say that Kyron's better at his position, arguably than what Rasheed Rice is to his position.
35:58But even still, it's this idea of fragility because the talent level is not necessarily up to the standard of what you
36:04would expect from a player that you're drafting as early as you're drafting.
36:07And I think, you know, with, with Kyron Williams, we started to see it during the second half of last year.
36:13You know, they started to use Blake Coramore and by most advanced metrics, you know, I'm not, I'm not fading Kyron this
36:19year by any means, but like by most advanced metrics, Blake Coram was just as good, if not better than Kyron Williams last year.
36:26Right. And with Rasheed Rice, it's like, you look at who he's being drafted around and you're like, well, George Pickens is
36:32clearly a, you know, better, just pure wide receiver, traditional wide receiver than what Rasheed Rice is.
36:37Oh, Devante Smith, who we'll get to in a second, clearly a better talented, more talented wide receiver than Rasheed.
36:42And you just go down the line. You're like Zay Flowers and Jalen Waddell.
36:46You're like, these guys are just better players, but obviously, you know, we're playing a game of fantasy football.
36:51We want to lean into that as well. And so it's just a really, really tough balance, I think with Rice.
36:57Right. Because, because by the way, the argument is, is like, yeah, but he's in a, Rice is in a better environment,
37:03but then you're like, wait, is he? I mean, right.
37:06Right. Because I mean, like, you know, prior to last year, you'd have said like, okay, it's Andy Reed, it's Patrick Mahomes.
37:12You know what I mean? But like, now you're sort of like, I don't know, are they going to be like sort
37:18of run heavy with a limping Patrick Mahomes? You know, like, yeah, that's a good one.
37:23It's a really good one. Speaking of Devante Smith though, he is officially your, your ride or die this year.
37:28I do want to ask, like, obviously there's, there's pressure in that.
37:31Like even, even, you know, I do, I do the fantasy footballers MVP show every year.
37:36And I have to give the one player that, that a fraction of, you know, some, some audience will only hear me talk once a year.
37:43And it's going to be whatever I say on that show.
37:46Right. And so there, there is even some pressure just with that.
37:49Like you want to be right. Of course, this is that on, you know, a massive scale of, do you lose sleep over this pick?
37:56And how did you come to the decision of Devante Smith this year?
38:00So to answer your first question, yes. Yeah. Because, because let's be honest, I need a hit, you know what I mean?
38:06Like, so it was so, I was running so hot for a long time, like from, you know, from, from Eckler to Jalen Hurts to Amon Ross, St.
38:14Brown. Right. You know, I mean, I've done it for, I've done the ride or die pick for nine.
38:19This is Devante Smith is number 10. So I've done it for nine years.
38:23One of them, Darius Geis, you know, he, he ended up tearing his ACL like a week later.
38:28So that one doesn't count. Right. But of the, of the nine that I've done, eight have played a full season in
38:34the NFL or eight have played that year. And of the eight for them, the three that I mentioned hurts Eckler and,
38:40uh, Amon Ross, and then, uh, Kareem Hunt's rookie year all finished top four at the position, just massive hits, massive wins.
38:46You know what I mean? Like those were all the breakout years for all four of those guys.
38:51And then I've had two others that have finished ahead of ADP.
38:54Um, so six out of eight have nailed, but Amari and Hampton last year, I consider a hit, but like, you have to squint to get there.
39:02Right. I mean, because he was, when he was healthy, he was good.
39:06He's good. Right. You know? And I think, I think he finished as like RB 13 on a points per game basis.
39:12And at the time that I named him, he was like going as RB 20.
39:16Yeah. But again, he, you know, and I, I had to name him like at the hall of fame game.
39:21So before, before, you know, Alton Slater got hurt and, you know, his offensive line was decimated.
39:26And so I consider that like, you have to squint to get it.
39:30I consider it a win. Kyler was bad, you know, two years ago.
39:33So I kind of, I need a hit JJ.
39:36Like, you know, I think most people like, yeah, okay.
39:38Amari and Hampton. That was all right. But you know, Kyler was a miss.
39:42So I need a hit. And you know, what's so frustrating about the Kyler one JJ is my producer, Damien will back
39:48me up on this, but like, you know, working through all of it, I wanted desperately, desperately to make Jaden Daniels, my ride or die that year.
39:56That was his rookie year. But I'm just like, you know, and again, I'm doing it on NBC.
40:01Like, you know, it was going to be my big thing.
40:04The first preseason game of the year, the hall of fame game.
40:07And I'm just like, everyone knows I'm, am I really doing this with a rookie quarterback with the commanders?
40:12And I was going to just accuse me of being a homer because they all know that's my team.
40:18And just, and I chickened out and I was like, well, Kyler's a safe pick and you know what it, and so
40:24that you're too, for what it's worth. So I was right there with you.
40:28It was a good pick. No, I know he was, he was, I thought so too, you know what I mean?
40:34And I'm in on Kyler this year again. So, you know, never, never wrong just early.
40:38If he has a big year in Minnesota, but yeah, you know, I was so mad at myself because what I should
40:44have done, I should have just gone with my initial gut and gone Jaden.
40:48And that would have obviously been a massive hit his rookie year.
40:51So in terms of Devante Smith, and then last year with Amari and Hampton, I went to this and this, you just start second guessing yourself, right?
40:59Yes. And last year I was just like, I wanted to do Jackson Smith and Jigba.
41:03And, but I'm just like, ah, that's so obvious.
41:06You know what I mean? Like, well, you know, he's, he's going to be the main guy in Seattle and who knows
41:12what Sam Darnold and they're going to run. And anyway, and then of course, obviously Jason has a monster year.
41:17So for Devante Smith, I, I, he was my ride or die since late February.
41:21Obviously he's a great wide receiver. I remember talking to at the combine.
41:25I, every year I do this thing called, I go to the combine and I do a rumors column.
41:30Yep. One of the, one of the most helpful columns every genuinely like that's, that's, it's very, very good every year.
41:36Thank you very much. Well, it's, it's one of my most fun columns to write because I basically, you know, I just
41:42start, listen, I am not a journalist, which I'm definitely not.
41:45I'm not breaking news. I'm not reporting this. This is just, these are drunk.
41:49These are rumors. I heard drunk at a bar at 2am.
41:52Right. But generally speaking, drunk at a bar at 2am is when you get sort of the good stuff.
41:57And like, you know, that's, that's where I got Tom Brady was going to go to the Buccaneers, which was one of the, you know, biggest column.
42:05And so this year, one of the things I got was, you know, uh, from an Eagles team source was basically like,
42:11we think Devante Smith has another gear that as good as he's been, he can get to another level that if he
42:17ever got the kind of target share that Jackson Smith and Jigba got last year, he would have that kind of season.
42:23Yeah. Like you think he's got that level of ability in him.
42:26And so that two things that told me, and so we talked a little bit more about it.
42:31It was like, number one was like, well, AJ Brown's definitely gone, um, which obviously ended up happening like two months later,
42:37but also that like, as you sort of think about it with Devante Smith, that he's somebody that's been productive, you know, every year of his career.
42:45Right. Somebody that's like, I don't need him to, I don't need him to learn anything new.
42:50Right. He's already an elite separator. He's already an elite route runner.
42:53He's already, you know, elite at earning targets. I just need him to do more of it.
42:58Yeah. Yeah. Got like AJ Brown and his almost 30% target share leaving the team.
43:02Right. And so all the numbers, anytime Devante Smith is, you know, he earns, you know, he's, he's got like something, uh, at least a 25% target share.
43:10Anytime AJ Brown has not been on the field.
43:12Yeah. And anytime he gets a 25% target share, he's averaging think over the last two years when he's gotten at least
43:18a 25% target share, he averages 17.3 fantasy points per game.
43:21It's for Comsarrison last year, George Pickens wide receiver five average 17.2.
43:25So here's a guy that's going before I announced it was going in the wide receiver 17.
43:29Yeah. Can we, can we talk about how mad I am that I had him as a player to target in the draft guide?
43:36And now I'm like barely ahead of ADP after you announced his pick.
43:39It does have that effect, which is annoying. And, and so the other, so, so that's the challenge is trying to find
43:46a player, Jonah Coleman, not like Jonah Coleman a lot.
43:48He's one of my sleepers this year, but like, no, that's not a ride or die.
43:53Like a ride or die is somebody that's already a productive player, already a player that's going to be drafted.
43:58I mean, like, you know, when I, when, when I named Austin Eckler, like he was still like a, you know, he was an RB too.
44:05He was going at the end of the second round.
44:08Right. I just said, this guy's gonna be a top five guy, you know, or, or Amon Ross St.
44:14Brown was going in the middle of the second round.
44:16Like he was, you know, he was still like a, you know, high end wide receiver too at the time.
44:22So they're all, the idea is it's always like, it's a known guy.
44:25It's, you know, it's not a surprise. Jalen Hurts was like QB eight, uh, the year I named him, but it's, it's
44:32somebody that I think takes the next level. And so I do think I have Devante at, at wide receiver 10.
44:37So I'm as a, as a, you know, top 10 wide receiver, but I think top five wide receiver is within the range of outcomes for Devante Smith.
44:45So none of these are ever sure things, but I just, I felt like, like, I believe in the talent I, you
44:51know, ever since he came out of college roll tide.
44:54Um, and I believe in the role, there's a little bit of a question mark around, um, you know, if this Sean
45:00Mannion offense, you know, it's another offensive coordinator for Jalen Hurts, who's had so many over the years, he's never been a,
45:06uh, he's never been an alpha wide receiver one for an entire season.
45:10If defenses try to bracket him and double him, what's, what's the effective effectiveness there.
45:14So there's definitely ways that it could go wrong.
45:16Injury is always a concern, but, um, but yeah, I needed a hit.
45:20And the other guy that I was strongly considering JJ was Colston Loveland.
45:24And I thought that I have Loveland higher than consensus in my overall ranks, but I have met tight in three and
45:30everyone has them at tight in three. Exactly. Right.
45:32Right. And so, you know, the path to quote, getting credit for the call, just like, you know, does what, what's the
45:38likelihood of him, you know, upstaging Bowers and McBride and, you know, failing health concerns with the other guy, like, not great.
45:44Like we like Bowers, we like McBride. So it's sort of like that was, that was the, that was what, you know,
45:50I mean, a lot more good into it, but that was basically the, um, that was the idea.
45:55I love the pick this year. I'm again, I'm, I'm kind of mad that you've made the pick, but I do like the pick overall.
46:02I appreciate that. How do you turn 16 games, injury reports, team notes, betting lines, and matchup trends into one clear weekend
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47:20That's LifeLock.com code FOOTBALL. Again, LifeLock.com code FOOTBALL. Look, we can't do a show this week without talking about the Josh Jacobs situation.
47:26You know, I think prefacing with just that it's unfortunate and terrible on every level like these things, right, is very important
47:32so that people understand that we're not coming at this from a perspective of like defending anything like that.
47:38It's a strictly fantasy football advice, right? He is like everyone else in America.
47:42He is innocent until proven guilty, right? But what he has been accused of is horrific and awful.
47:47Neither you nor I are trivialized. You want to trivialize what he's been accused of because what he's been accused of is truly heinous.
47:53Yeah, but it's a fantasy football show. And when the lead running back of one of the best team, one of the
47:59better offenses in the NFL is placed in the commissioner's exempt list and matters, there is a fantasy football trickle down effect
48:05of that and we need to talk about it.
48:08Yeah. So my question is, where are you ranking Marshawn Lloyd?
48:11But beyond that, like, what are your expectations? Like, how are you viewing this situation?
48:15You can even discuss what you think will go down with Jacobs if you have any take there, you know, if it's
48:21going to be a, he'll come back halfway through or it's not, you know, I saw Schefter tweet yesterday that, or at
48:27least he was on a podcast and I think it was taken transcript from the podcast.
48:32And again, who knows what the stuff that we were talking about earlier, but, you know, said something along the lines of
48:38like that he would, would be kind of surprised if anything really happens until after the court date, which is in November.
48:44But regardless of all of that, like, where are you ranking Marshawn Lloyd right now?
48:48I am a 25 running back 25, you know, 65 overall.
48:51So, you know, six, seventh round, depending on the size of, uh, of your league.
48:55I have him basically, I have him after high upside, but slightly questionable lead backs.
48:59I have him after like Jadarian price and Baisal Tootin.
49:02I'm ahead of, I have him, but I have him ahead of some of the committee guys, like the Patriots guys, you
49:08know, so I have them right there and kind of, you know, as a, as a, as a flex play, we like the role.
49:15Like, so the Patriot, the Packers, since Matt Lafleur took over, um, as head coach of the green Bay Packers, green Bay
49:21is fourth in running back fantasy points. It's a productive role.
49:24A lot of that's Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs, but it's a productive role and we like the offense.
49:29So, you know, I always say JJ, that fantasy success comes from literally two things and two things only talent and opportunity, right?
49:36We like the opportunity a bunch. Again, the lead running back of the Packers, I think Packers are going to be an above average offense this year.
49:43We like the talent we think, right? I mean, like JJ, I know you do your rookie model stuff.
49:48And so you can probably talk about this better than I do in terms of where his, his zap score and all
49:54the stuff that you do is, but right. Like, I mean, like we liked him coming out of college, but we've never
50:01seen him be good in the NFL. Right. Right.
50:03You know, he's been injured a lot. He's been stuck behind a, uh, an elite starter in Josh Jacobs, but like, we just, we don't know.
50:10So I am at 25. Yeah. It's about where I happen to like right ahead of like Jalen Warren type players, you
50:16know, the guys were like, you know, like you were saying where there's a lot more ambiguity about, it's not like we
50:22think that there's massive, massive upside for a guy like Warren, whereas there could be massive upside for a player like Lloyd.
50:28The thing with him, you know, he was a little bit older coming out.
50:32He was over 23 when he was drafted production profile, I'd say was pretty average, like nothing like crazy that, that made
50:38me the one thing that was pretty good though, is that he was, he was good at, uh, forcing missed tackles, uh, in college.
50:45He was like 92nd percentile or so there. And then the other thing that you're going to see, and I fall in
50:51love with these kinds of players is that he's very bursty and twitchy and, you know, is it, and that's, he's going
50:57to be electric with the ball in his hands and very fun to watch.
51:01Now that doesn't always translate to coaches loving that player or, you know, fantasy production and such, but I guarantee you that
51:07if you draft Marshawn Lloyd and you're watching him play, you're going to be excited watching him play, you know, cause he's,
51:13he's really, really fun with the ball in his hands.
51:16As I mentioned, I had Nate Tice on my show earlier this week, you know, and Nate was just talking about that.
51:22He felt like, and I think Nate does a really good job.
51:25He does. Yeah. I'm a big fan of Nate.
51:28And so, and he's a big fantasy player too.
51:30That's not what he does for Yahoo, but he's, he's a big fantasy player.
51:34He's like a nine leagues. He was telling me, and he said he liked Lloyd a lot.
51:39And he just felt like Lloyd was a better zone scheme runner actually than Jacobs.
51:43He actually thinks Lloyd is going to be a better fit for, he says LaFour will change it a little bit, but
51:49he actually thinks, you know, based on what the Packers are doing, he also had a really interesting nugget.
51:55He says, I don't know if you noticed this, but the Packers traded for this, like, you know, blocking tight end from the Rams.
52:01Like, you know, like I think the guy's name was Mark Bradley.
52:04I forget. I apologize. Blanking on it for right now, but he just said, he's a really good blocking tight.
52:10And he's just like, I thought that was a really interesting move because that tells me he goes, look, they're going to
52:16get, you know, they're going to bring them out there.
52:19He goes, cause Kraft will block some, but it just, this guy's a really good blocking tight end, um, that, you know,
52:25they'll put out line and like, they're just going to, they're just going to do that zone scheme stuff and just, you
52:31know, have this guy pancake a few people. And so he thought, he just thought that was also telling that that was really interesting.
52:38The other thing is, is that I think again, health is going to be concerned for Lloyd and can he hold up over the entire season?
52:45If he does in fact have to play the entire year, but you know, like, I think he's going to get a
52:51fairly long leash because I don't know that we think any, you know, I don't know that Brooks is anything special.
52:57You know, it feels like he's just, he's going to be a third down passing down specialist.
53:02And then Caleb Johnson, I mean, hope springs eternal for Caleb Johnson.
53:05You know, everyone that's got date dynasty shares of Caleb Johnson's like, we're back.
53:09We're back, baby. We're alive. You know, but like, we haven't seen Caleb Johnson be good in the NFL yet either.
53:15Right. Right. I mean, there were questions of whether he would even make the Steelers, you know, uh, switch over to how I'm treating Josh Jacobs.
53:22I'm at running back 50. I'm at one 47 overall and I have zero shares of him.
53:26I don't know what's going to happen, but if you draft him, I think you have to draft him with the idea
53:32that you may get nothing out of him this year.
53:35There's a wide range of outcomes. The problem is, is there's just a massively wide range of outcomes with Josh Jacobs, but
53:41I feel like the majority of them are not great, you know, which is there's a, there's a chance he's suspended the entire year.
53:48There's a chance he's suspended for eight games. And by the time he gets back and he hasn't been working out or
53:54whatever, that he's rusty and that by the time he gets back, Marshawn Lloyd is sort of taken over the job or
54:00it's a committee or by the way, or the Packers, you know, or the Packers decide to release him, you know, like
54:06if the, if the press is bad enough, but there is within the range of outcomes that, you know, he gets taken
54:12off the list tomorrow and he's back to being the starting running back of the Packers.
54:17I feel more comfortable trafting him in a league where I have an NA spot, right.
54:21We're not available because some leagues will just, it's just an IR spot.
54:25They literally have to be injured and on the IR spot.
54:28Some leagues, however, just like if they're suspended, they're on the exempt list, they're on IR, whatever it is, if they're just
54:34not available, you can put them in a slot.
54:36So if I'm not wasting a roster spot on him or using wasting is probably too strong a word, but if I'm
54:43not using a, a roster spot on him, I feel better about it.
54:46And the other scenario where I would draft him is just, if I need an upside, you know, just if, if like,
54:52just because the way the draft went, I just wasn't able to get early round running backs.
54:57I'm, I've got too many of these committee guys that you're just like, you don't love your running back room and how it's constructed.
55:04And so I need to swing for the fences.
55:06And so, yeah, you know, why not? I'll take a shot.
55:09But I will say that I, where I ranked him in my running backs, JJs, I ranked them after all the kind
55:15of the high upside insurance backs after the tank Bigsby's and the Ray Davis's of the world, right.
55:20The guy, the, you know, the Emmett Johnson's the guys that, you know, if something were to happen to the starter in
55:26front of them, we feel pretty good about their opportunity to be fantasy relevant while the starter was out.
55:31Yeah. That makes sense. All right. I want to do a rapid fire here.
55:35Yeah. This guy versus this guy who are close in ADP.
55:38Tell me who you would pick and, you know, a sentence as to why.
55:42So let's start with Jeremiah love versus breeze hall.
55:45Have them right next to each other. I've haul one spot higher.
55:48I'm going to take haul because I feel better about his passing game usage than I do about love.
55:53They're both on bad teams, but I feel like haul haul has more of a floor in terms of his passing game usage.
56:00Can I throw this take out there? Doesn't it feel like breeze hall is kind of the like 80th percentile realized version
56:06of Jeremiah love for, from a rookie season perspective, doesn't it kind of feel that way?
56:10You know? Yeah. I get that standpoint and such.
56:13Yeah. Yeah. No, I like that. Frank Reich has a track record of throwing to running backs.
56:17Yep. You know, Jeremiah love, you know, has the nagging injury.
56:20Both teams are going to be bad, but I, I, I feel like breeze hall is definitely going to, you know, catch a lot of patent.
56:28We've seen it with Devon, a Chan, right? You know, a bad running back, a good run, a running back on a
56:34bad team can catch a lot of passes and be very fantasy relevant.
56:37I'm worried that Jeremiah love is not going to be used in the passing game, you know, as much as we want,
56:43as much as we want because of all the weapons they have, because I don't think Jacoby, Jacoby was said is more
56:50likely to chuck it down the field. Yep. Um, so that's why.
56:53Agreed. All right. Malik neighbors versus Chris Alave. Yeah.
56:55Chris Alave. Um, you know, I, I, I had them reversed while Jordan Taysen was healthy, but with Tyson out now, just,
57:01you know, just 29% target share with Tyler shock is a starting quarterback last year for a lobby, right?
57:07Over 82 yards a game. He was wide receiver five in the utilization score.
57:11You know, JJ, your audience would probably appreciate this.
57:13I don't know if you're familiar with it, but Dwayne McFarland over at fantasy life has created this metric called the utilization score.
57:19It's great. Yeah. It's, which just is basically a very simple number on a scale of one to a hundred that takes
57:26in all different factors that translate to, to projecting fantasy success.
57:29Dwayne is much better as explaining it. It's, it's very complex, but I won't nerd out, um, on it.
57:34Uh, but anyway, this is somebody that had a, that was wide receiver five in terms of total utilization score, just massive,
57:40you know, targets per route run in terms of usage and just anyway.
57:43So give me a lobby over the, I'm not crazy about Matt Nagy.
57:47We don't know how healthy neighbors is, you know?
57:50Yeah. I feel you. I'm in the same boat.
57:52All right. Bashaw Tootin versus David Montgomery. Yeah. I mean, I literally, I mean, I have Montgomery 21 and Tootin at 22.
57:58And I think the answer here, I'm going to give you a cop-out, but I think the answer is, I know where
58:04you're going here and I'm going to agree with you here for sure.
58:08It's roster construction. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. It's just, if, if you have, if you went running back early and you feel really
58:14good about, you know, sort of, you've, you've got a rock solid running back one, maybe even a running back two, give me Bashaw Tootin.
58:21Give me the upside of Bashaw Tootin. Right. But if I ended up going, you know, why, you know, the way it
58:27drafts is I, you know, I, I went wide receiver and tight end and like, so, you know, I've, I've got a question mark at my RB one.
58:35Give me Dave Montgomery, who I think is going to have a, a really strong floor year.
58:39He's a much higher floor than Tootin, but he doesn't have the upside of Tootin.
58:44So it really depends on what you need at that, you know, when you're in the fifth, sixth round of the draft.
58:50Yeah, totally agree. All right. Last one. I'll give you a Chris Godwin versus Brian Thomas.
58:54I'll say Brian Thomas, right? I mean, I just, I feel I have him at 32.
58:58I've Godwin at 34. I just feel like Thomas, you know, younger, big playability, higher touchdown ceiling.
59:03It also goes back to what we were just talking about in terms of roster construction, in terms of, you know, upside or floor.
59:10Yeah. But in terms of where these guys are going, like at that stage where both Godwin and Brian Thomas are going,
59:16I feel like that's where you want to swing for the fences a little bit more and you want the upside play.
59:22And so give me BTJ there between those two.
59:24All right. One last question before I let you go.
59:27I need a, I need a bold take for this 2026 season.
59:31And, and just, just remember whatever you say here will be used as a headline, as a news item on all the aggregator sites.
59:37So be careful with what you say here. Well, I just, I wrote, I just wrote today on fantasy.com my 10 lists of 10 column.
59:44One of my 10 lists is my bold predictions, 10 bold predictions for the 25 season.
59:49Perfect. Why don't I, I'll, why don't I read them quickly to you?
59:52I'll read you all 10. When you like them.
59:55Okay. Let's hear it. Let's hear it. Here we go real quickly.
59:58Devante Smith finishes as a top five wide receiver.
60:00Love it. Chase, Chase Brown finishes as a top three running back.
60:04Love it. Colston Loveland finishes as an overall tight end one.
60:07Kyler Murray, top five. Tyler Shuck, top 10. Chris Olave, top five wide receiver.
60:11Lad McConkie, top eight. Matthew Stafford throws 15 fewer touchdowns, at least 15 fewer touchdowns and finishes outside the top 15 of fantasy quarterbacks.
60:17AJ Brown leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns and finishes as a top three fantasy wide receiver.
60:22And last bold prediction, Isaiah Likely, top five fantasy tight end.
60:25I like it. I like it. So there's an insane amount of overlap because I did my bold predictions piece this week.
60:31Oh, really? Okay. We have a lot of guys that we are both seemingly in on together this year.
60:36The AJ Brown was one. Like I had one of mine was that Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker will both outscore Jonathan Taylor was.
60:43Okay. I like that one. I like that one.
60:46But yeah. So there's a lot, a lot of overlap.
60:48So are you in on lad this year? Cause that's what we had throughout the show and stuff you're in.
60:54Yeah. Lad was one of my final, like, so I, you know, writer diabetes has become such a big thing and I'm out of my own here.
61:01So I'm milking it. Right. So got to do what I can, you know, in a world of SEO.
61:07And so I did a finalists, you know, I now I announced my five finalists and it's so funny that you mentioned it.
61:13So here are my five finalists for a ride or die, Devante Smith, Colston Loveland, Ken Walker, Chase Brown, and Lad McConkie.
61:19There we go. Those are my five finalists for ride or die.
61:22And I ultimately obviously went with Smith, but yeah.
61:25So I think he's, he's probably on the short list.
61:28It's like, for me, it's like Devante Smith, Zay Flowers, Lad McConkie is like short list could be this year's JSN.
61:33Yes. I agree with all that with, with Zay, Zay's gonna Zay's on my love list.
61:38And it's just a matter of, can he get the touchdowns?
61:41Right. Right. We believe in the talent. We believe in the role.
61:44We believe in the quarterback. It's just, can he get to the touchdowns?
61:48Yeah. McConkie, you know, I mean, I had, I actually had field dates on my show earlier today.
61:53We did a reunion show and we were talking about, we did sleepers, breakouts and busts.
61:57And one of his breakouts was Justin Herbert. And we just talked about the fact that like, people forget how good Tua
62:03was in the first two years under McDaniel. Yeah.
62:06And this passing offense is not, and Herbert is obviously, you know, miles better than Tua just as a quarterback.
62:11Right. And in that particular year when, when, you know, Tua had to choose between Waddle and Tyreek Hill.
62:17Right. And, but now like it's Lad McConkie. And you know who else, no one's talking about JJ that I brought up on my show.
62:24So I'm in on the Chargers offense. I'm in on Herbert.
62:27You know, they, the passing offense is going to go through McConkie, but like no one's talking about Quentin Johnston.
62:32And I, I brought this up on my show the other day where I'm just like, he's, we all like the offense.
62:38We all like the quarterback and Quentin Johnson's going to be like the number two guy for what we think is going
62:44to be one of the, like a top 10 offense in the NFL.
62:48Like I don't, I'm not hearing a ton of Trey Harris buzz.
62:51I think all the Titans kind of, you know, box each other out.
62:55Right. Like, like, and I mean, we saw it in the preseason game, like they're going to take three or four deep shots to QJ every game.
63:02Yeah. And if he hits on one of them, half the games, like he's a value, not even half the games, like a third of the game.
63:10I know. And I also, I also want to coach that knows how to scheme his guys open for a guy like QJ, who's great after the catch.
63:17Like there's a very easy, you know, easy to, to see fit scheme and a fit from a scheme perspective to bottom
63:24line is draft, draft your chargers, right? Yeah. Draft your chargers this year.
63:27That's really what it comes down to. But Matthew, this was fantastic.
63:31I really, really, really appreciate the time and kind of reminiscing, but then also talking some fantasy, let everyone know what you're doing.
63:37Where they can find all the stuff you're doing this year and, you know, do what you want with the promotion of fantasy life.
63:44Yeah. Fantasylife.com where all my stuff, if you want to read my columns, see my rankings, they're all for free at fantasylife.com.
63:50We send out a free newsletter every single day.
63:52You can sign up for that at fantasylife.com. We also have fantasy life plus 37 different tools, which help you win your leagues, your DFS, your bets.
64:00Really great that, you know, if you're playing a guillotine league, which is another thing I would love to mention.
64:05We have a waiver tool that'll tell you like, how much do I bid on Jamar Chase in week seven?
64:11We can tell you based on all the historical data.
64:13So go check that out. Fantasy life plus, you can use the promo code Barry to get 10% off at fantasylife.com.
64:19And then the last thing I'll mention, you know, again, my show that you've done, JJ, you were a guest fantasy football happy hour.
64:26We're live on YouTube every single day, noon to 1 p.m.
64:29Eastern on the Matthew Barry YouTube channel, wherever you get your podcasts as well.
64:33And then last thing I'll say is guillotine leagues.
64:35Go try a league, guillotineleagues.com. If you want, JJ, you should do this.
64:39If you go to mikeshard.com slash sweepstakes slash fantasy football, you can enter into a Mike's Harder guillotine league, all the Mike's Harder guillotine leagues.
64:46If you survive the chop, if you manage to survive, you know, at guillotineleagues.com, if you manage to survive and you're a
64:52winner, all the people that win their guillotine league are going into a pool.
64:56And Mike's Harder is going to choose one of them and give that person $25,000.
65:00Oh, nice. Nice. So you can enter a free league and there's a chance that you're holding $25,000 at the end of the year.
65:07There's also a bunch of weekly prizes as well that you can sign up for again.
65:11So that's mikeshard.com slash sweepstakes slash fantasy football. So there you go.
65:14I can vouch also for fantasy life with the, the data stuff that you guys have.
65:19It's very helpful for me, even for like quick reference type stuff, you know, within like the, the, the, the data suite
65:25that you've got to just very quickly see route shares or very quickly see, you know, different metrics for, for players.
65:31So for, for this particular audience, you guys might be interested in that as well.
65:35So check out fantasy life for sure. I appreciate that.
65:38I appreciate you saying that between Dwayne McFarland and Matthew Friedman, who do all of our projections, who, you know, Dwayne's actually our director of data analytics.
65:45He's, you know, his utilization stuff, all of our utilization, I think charts and data is really incredible.
65:50So I appreciate you giving your vote of approval.
65:52Me saying the data is like, they're like, yeah, yeah, whatever, Barry, but you saying it is meaningful.
65:57So I appreciate that. Yeah, of course. Of course.
66:00And as always, everyone check out late round.com. The draft guide is only going to be relevant for another week or so.
66:06So make sure you check all that out. Otherwise, thanks for tuning in.
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