0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Monday night is made for the call that changes the game, the play that looks
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1:00What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen. And in this episode 1135 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
1:07Straight up, I'm not a big fan of how last week's Sleepers episode went.
1:11It was one of the worst of this short season.
1:14And the first two were just fine, not fantastic.
1:17But it was rough out there for week three.
1:19I'm not going to hide from it. Kyler Murray lost Justin Jefferson.
1:23He scored only about 11 points. Kalief Raymond and Emmitt Johnson didn't get the game scripts that I wanted.
1:29Casey Concepcion, I liked the process given all the volume that he saw.
1:33He just couldn't convert. Dalton Schultz wasn't great. Devon Vele, Xavier Worthy, Rashid Shahid, Dontavian Wicks, Jalen Noll, who I liked as a deep play.
1:40It just didn't come together for them. The defensive streamers this year have been pretty brutal too.
1:45I didn't miss everything though. Fortunately, my guy Kenyon Sadiq, he had a monster 23.5 PPR point performance.
1:51Tyler Shuck continued to get it done. Jordan Love was fine for fantasy purposes.
1:55Geno Smith smashed. AJ Barner was usable. And the Keaton Mitchell call was a good one.
2:00So overall this year, having a good start to the season from a draft perspective, having a rough start with these sleepers.
2:06I'm going to do my best to be better here in week four.
2:10Now before we get to those sleepers, I just want to send another reminder to check out the Late Round newsletter.
2:16The newsletter is absolutely free. Just head to lateround.com and sign up.
2:20You get the data dump in your email inbox every Monday morning, the 15 transactions list on Tuesday morning, an awesome matchups column from Brandon Gadula every Wednesday.
2:28There's a wrap up email from David Kitchen at the end of the week.
2:32It's a really good email newsletter. I'm obviously biased, but I do think it's good.
2:37Check it out. Late round.com We'll kick things off with players rostered in 50 to 80% of Yahoo leagues.
2:43And of course we'll start with quarterbacks first. Bryce Young was disappointing in week three, but he's in a good spot in week four against the Lions.
2:51Detroit ranks 28th in the league in pass defense success rates so far this year, and only four teams are allowing a
2:57higher fantasy points per drop back rate. This game in Carolina on Sunday has a 50 and a half point total.
3:04Carolina still is a top five team in pass rate over expected this year.
3:08We also have Detroit as the 11th fastest paced team.
3:11Carolina is still first. That means there could be a lot of plays in this matchup.
3:16So it's a good spot for Bryce Young, though that injury to Jalen Coker makes things a little bit less appealing.
3:22The other quarterback I like in this tier is CJ Stroud.
3:25Houston gets Dallas this week, so it's a game in a dome and the Texans have a 25 point implied team total.
3:32The Cowboys are below average in pressure rate this year defensively, and they rank as the sixth best matchup for quarterbacks by adjusted fantasy points allowed.
3:40Most importantly for Houston, it sounds like Nico Collins is going to be back.
3:44That's going to be a nice boost for that passing game.
3:47So it's an interesting matchup where we know the opposing team has a strong offense.
3:52That's why I think Stroud is a good sleeper.
3:54Moving to running back, I think RJ Harvey is kind of interesting this week.
3:58The Broncos get the 49ers. San Francisco has allowed the second highest adjusted target share to running backs this year.
4:04That's RJ Harvey's role. Harvey is at the 18th highest route share of any running back this season.
4:10In the season, he's seen the fifth highest target share.
4:13He's at a 19% target share. I do worry that we're going to see more Tyler Bidet if the 49ers keep playing
4:19like they've been playing and they get off to a big lead.
4:23But I think RJ Harvey has really sneaky appeal in week four.
4:27I'll throw Woody Marks out there again too. He did see his snap share drop to 35% in week three, but it's
4:33a matchup against Dallas that's a good one on paper.
4:36Dallas' bottom 10 in rush success rate allowed this season, and our numbers show them as the fifth best matchup in adjusted rushing yards allowed to running backs.
4:45And I'll just toss this out there too. Early on in the season, Marks has a better yards per rush, a better
4:51success rate, and a better yards after contact per attempt than David Montgomery does.
4:55So maybe he'll be able to get it done against this defense.
4:59At wide receiver, we currently don't know if Justin Jefferson is going to play this weekend.
5:04But I think regardless, you can at least consider Jordan Addison.
5:07Minnesota has a 24.5 point total against Miami, and the Dolphins are a middle of the road matchup for wide receivers by adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5:15Part of the reason for that though is just straight up volume.
5:18Miami's faced the fewest pass attempts per game against them this year because of game script.
5:23Don't mistake that for being a decent secondary. They've allowed by far the highest catch rate over expected this year, and no
5:30team is allowing a higher yards per out run to opposing wide receivers.
5:34That means that even if Jordan Addison isn't peppered with looks, he can still be usable off just a handful of plays.
5:40Devon Bailey gets the Falcons this week. Atlanta's defense has actually been pretty good to start the year for fantasy purposes.
5:47But I think we could see a lot of volume from New Orleans passing attack in this matchup.
5:52The Saints are top half of the league in pass rate over expected in neutral situations, and they've run at the second fastest pace in the league.
6:00That means there's passing volume in the offense. But then you look at Atlanta.
6:04They've faced the highest pass rate over expected to start the season.
6:08They've struggled more against the perimeter, so I think Chris Alave could really eat in this matchup.
6:13Vele's played a little bit more in the slot.
6:16But I think there could be enough volume here to make Vele usable.
6:20And then I'm going to have a little fun with this next one.
6:23I don't think I'd confidently play him this week, but I think Marvin Harrison Jr.'s matchup against the Giants is pretty good.
6:30I know, I'm calling out Marv, he's done nothing this year, but I do like this spot.
6:35The Giants currently ranked third worst in the NFL and points per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
6:40They ranked bottom four in the league and percentage of points allowed to wide receivers going to the slot.
6:46Meaning teams have generally just attacked them and scored points on the outside.
6:50They've also had the second worst pressure rate in the league.
6:53According to our numbers, Arizona actually has the best pressure rate matchup in the league this week.
6:58When looking at pressures allowed versus pressures given by the opposition.
7:02Now obviously Michael Wilson, he's going to eat. But Marvin Harrison Jr.
7:05has seen an average depth of target of 17.7 yards this year.
7:09Wilson's at 9.5. If the Cardinals have more time to throw, it could benefit Marvin Harrison Jr.
7:14At tight end in this tier, I'm going to go with Dalton Schultz.
7:18Technically, it's a revenge game against the Cowboys. Schultz didn't come through last week in a good matchup and Nico Collins could be back this week.
7:26But Dalton Schultz actually has a higher targets per out run rate when Nico Collins has been on the field since the start of the 2025 season.
7:34Versus when Nico's been off the field. This is a potential high scoring game and Dallas has given up the fourth most
7:40adjusted points to tight ends this year. I wouldn't give up on Schultz just yet.
7:45This next tier consists of players rostered in 20-50% of Yahoo leagues.
7:48I guess I'm going to go with Sam Darnold.
7:51I don't think he's in the worst spot in the world.
7:54But I think it's more of a floor play, not necessarily a ceiling play.
7:59The Chargers have been average at getting to the quarterback this year.
8:02Their bottom 6th in success rate allowed through the air.
8:05And they've been a middle of the road matchup and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks.
8:10On the year, their 13th in fantasy points per drop back allowed.
8:13Seattle has a near 25 point implied team total in this game.
8:17That makes me feel a little bit more confident in a player like Darnold.
8:21But I don't think he's the best quarterback streamer this week.
8:24Instead, I think I like Daniel Jones more. He's another guy that you could go to.
8:29We're undoubtedly going to be targeting this commander secondary all season long for quarterbacks.
8:33That's who the Colts get this week in London.
8:36But Washington is allowing almost 27 adjusted points per game this year to opposing quarterbacks.
8:41Their second worst in points per drop back allowed.
8:43Their average in pressure rate and their third worst in pass defense success rate.
8:48The Colts have a favorable total over 25 points.
8:50So I like this matchup a lot for Daniel Jones.
8:53At running back, Bryan Robinson has actually been really good this year.
8:57The Falcons' run game generally has. Robinson's seen about 30% of the team's rush attempts.
9:01And while his receiving volume won't be anything special, the ground game matchup against the Saints is actually pretty sweet.
9:07On the season, New Orleans ranks dead last in defensive rushing success rate.
9:11And they've been the sixth best matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed.
9:15Robinson's been one of the best backs this year in yards after contact per attempt.
9:20I could see him having an okay day. But yeah, you gotta cross your fingers and hope that he can find the end zone.
9:27In that same game, you also could look at Alvin Kamara.
9:30I think he's the only Saints running back that I might use this week because Atlanta's actually been pretty good against the run.
9:37Their best in success rate allowed on the ground.
9:40With that being said, they rank as the eighth best matchup in adjusted target share allowed to running backs.
9:46And Kamara, when compared to Kendry Miller and CJ Donaldson, he's doubled up those guys in routes run over the last two weeks.
9:53And as we know, Atlanta's facing the highest pass rate over expected this year.
9:57So maybe Alvin Kamara could do a little bit as a receiver in this matchup.
10:01The obvious player in this tier though at running back is Braylon Allen.
10:05I love Allen this week against the Bears. Chicago's been the fifth best matchup for running backs this year by adjusted fantasy points allowed.
10:12And their sixth worst in expected rushing yards per rush allowed.
10:16They've also given up a higher than average success rate to running backs.
10:19And for the record, one of the deep plays this week would be Isaiah Davis for the exact same reasons.
10:25Maybe that backfield just gets split up more than we expect.
10:29And Davis has not been a bad running back throughout his career.
10:32So don't sleep on him either. At wide receiver in this tier, how about Keenan Allen?
10:37As I talked about on the 50 transaction show for a third straight year, he's leading his team in targets per route run.
10:44And he gets Washington this week. The commanders are third in adjusted points allowed to wide receivers per game.
10:50They've allowed the seventh highest target share. Only three teams are giving up a higher catch rate over expected.
10:55The list goes on and on. This Washington secondary is not very good.
10:59They also have given up the most points to perimeter wide receivers by a wide margin.
11:04That's where Allen is running 63% of his routes.
11:07Josh Downs is still playing more in the slot.
11:09So with his role in this offense without Alec Pierce, I think Keenan Allen can be okay.
11:15And another 15 transactions player to look at here is Kalief Raymond.
11:18It's still wild to me that we're here, but we're here.
11:21Raymond has a 23% target share in the Bears offense and he's seeing a respectable 68% route share.
11:27He's been a nice outlet in the short and intermediate area of the field for this Bears offense through three weeks.
11:33And with Caleb Williams out again, I'd imagine the Bears go with a similar approach as they had in week three.
11:39And if that's the case, it may match up pretty well against the Jets.
11:44New York has given up the fifth lowest average depth of target on the season.
11:48And they're 12th worst defensively in completion rate on throws that travel 0-10 air yards.
11:53Meanwhile, they've been second best in completion rate allowed on passes that traveled 10 or more air yards.
11:58So it wouldn't surprise me to see a decent bit of Luther Burden and Kalief Raymond once again in this Bears passing attack.
12:05They both have averaged up the targets below eight yards.
12:08Roma Dunze is over 17. So I like this matchup for Raymond.
12:11I think it could be a decent flex. At tight end in that same game, I've got to go back to Kenyon Sadiq.
12:18It sounds like Mason Taylor and Adonai Mitchell could be out again in this game.
12:23That's great news for Sadiq. He finished week three with a 22% target share.
12:27He only had a 57% route share, but he was also banged up a bit during that game.
12:32His 32% targets per outrun rate led the team.
12:35When it comes to adjusted fantasy points allowed, Chicago has been a bottom half matchup this year for tight ends.
12:41But they've been a top 10 one in terms of yards per outrun.
12:45Really though, there's just a volume and talent play above all else.
12:49TJ Hawkinson is more of a matchup play, but it's not like he hasn't been seeing usage.
12:54On the year, Hawk has a 19% target share and a 70.5% route share.
12:58Those are solid numbers. He now gets a Miami defense that's fifth in adjusted points allowed to tight ends, their third in
13:05PPR points allowed per target to the position, and their first in yards per outrun allowed to them.
13:10With the Miami pass rush just not looking good, the Vikings could deploy Hawkinson a little bit more as a receiver.
13:16Especially with Justin Jefferson banged up. So I don't mind him this week in a game where Minnesota has a decent total.
13:23And then Brenton Strange is kind of interesting. He only has a 13% target share on the season, but his route share is really solid at 75%.
13:31The Jags are leaning into 12 personnel a little bit more, and that's not a bad thing for Brenton Strange.
13:37Cincinnati has been a top half matchup this year for tight ends by adjusted points allowed, and their fourth in target share allowed to the position.
13:45So maybe Strange will get a little bit more love this week on the volume front, making him viable.
13:50In the final tier, we're going to look at players rostered in fewer than 20% of Yahoo leagues.
13:56And there are actually some decent quarterback options this week.
13:59One direction you could go in? Marcus Mariota. Mariota is 14th in the NFL in fantasy points per drop back since the start of last year.
14:07And we just saw him give us a usable performance against one of the best defenses in football.
14:12Now the commanders get the Colts. Indy's been the 7th worst matchup in the league so far in fantasy points per drop
14:19back, and their bottom 5 in pressure rate. Our numbers show that they're the 7th best matchup for quarterbacks in totality.
14:25So you can lean on Mariota if you're in a pinch.
14:28I really like Jacoby Brissett this week against the Giants.
14:31New York is a top 10 opponent for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed, and their bottom 2 in the league in pressure rate so far.
14:39Actually, this game features the 2 worst teams by pressure rate.
14:42The Giants have allowed the 6th highest points per drop back, and their bottom 10 in pass success rate too.
14:48So I like Brissett. And you could go to Geno Smith, but I don't like him as much as the other quarterbacks
14:54that I've talked about on today's show. Smith obviously had a very good outing for fantasy purposes last week, and while this
15:01isn't as good of a matchup, the Bears still rank as the 8th best matchup for quarterbacks this year by adjusted points allowed.
15:08Chicago has also not done a great job at getting to the quarterback.
15:12They're bottom 10 in the league in pressure rate.
15:15I do worry about how much scoring we're actually going to see here, and I do think the Jets could end up
15:21leaning on the run game more in this contest, more than they usually do, even with Brees Hall being out.
15:27But I don't totally mind Geno Smith. We've got to really dig deep for running backs in this tier, and one that
15:34I'm at least moderately interested in seeing this week is Caleb Johnson.
15:37The Packers' backfield was so bad last week, but I thought just by the eye test, Johnson probably looked the best of the trio.
15:44It's not saying much, because I don't think he looked great, but it's something.
15:49Maybe the Packers reward him with a slightly better snap share.
15:52If they do, Tampa Bay is not a bad matchup specifically for what the Packers need.
15:57Green Bay has been pretty bad up front, but Tampa Bay is giving up the 7th most yards before contact per attempt
16:03in the league so far this year. And the Packers are facing a rookie quarterback who wasn't highly sought after.
16:09There's plenty of ambiguity there, but there's some chance that Green Bay just has their way this week.
16:15It's a very volatile situation. And sometimes in those volatile situations, you've got to just lean into it, because there could be
16:21a higher range of outcome than we typically see.
16:24That's why Johnson's getting a call out. Now I already mentioned Isaiah Davis in this tier, so let's move on to wide receiver.
16:31It's pretty tough for these deep sleepers this week, so hang in there when I say some of these names.
16:37We'll start with rookie Malachi Fields. Fields is playing opposite of Malik Nabors in that Giants offense, with Darnell Mooney operating in the slot.
16:44Arizona, their opponent, as I've been saying, they have the worst pressure rate in football through three games.
16:49That means that Jameis Winston could be kept upright this week.
16:53He could have more time in the pocket. Meanwhile, Arizona has given up the 6th most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers this season.
17:00Maybe we finally see some production from Malachi Fields, because he is running routes on the outside as a starter for the Giants.
17:07And look, Darnell Mooney might be an option too.
17:10I just like the perimeter matchup a little bit more than the slot one.
17:14Mack Hollins currently leads Patriots pass catchers in target share, and he's lapping everyone in yards per out run.
17:19It's not the prettiest thing in the world, but his expected PPR points per game through three weeks is 11.4.
17:25Demario Douglas is at 8.3. The Patriots get the bills this week.
17:29Teams against Buffalo, they tend to run the ball a little bit more than usual.
17:34But Buffalo has been a top half team this year, and adjusted points allowed for wide receivers.
17:39And they've seen a higher proportion of those points allowed go to outside wide receivers versus the inside ones.
17:44I obviously don't love it. It's why it's a deep sleeper.
17:48But you could probably do worse than Mack Hollins.
17:50Ryan Flannoy is actually averaging 10.1 expected PPR points per game.
17:54He's scoring just 5.2. He has a respectable 71% route share this season.
17:57C.D. Lamb, he's at 79%. George Pickens, 79.5%. And the Texans, their opponent this week, they haven't been that amazing against wide receivers this year.
18:05They're 7th worst, and adjusted points allowed to the position.
18:08In a game that's kind of appealing, Ryan Flannoy might get a little production.
18:12And then at tight end in this tier, I love Darren Waller this week.
18:16Jalen Coker's banged up, so Waller could get a little bit more run in this offense.
18:21When Coker left the game last week, we saw Waller gobble up 8 targets in the second half.
18:27He's been a top 10 tight end in expected PPR points per game over the last two weeks.
18:32In Detroit, they're the second best matchup by adjusted points allowed to tight ends.
18:36This game is interesting, and Waller could play a role.
18:39Now, like I said at the top, defensive streaming has not been good to start the year.
18:44But I don't mind some of them this week.
18:47The Packers get Jalen Daniels and the Bucs. They're a great play.
18:50I know they were bad last week, but this is objectively a good spot for them.
18:55The Bucs have an implied team total of 18 points.
18:58They haven't even been good with Baker Mayfield under center.
19:01I think the fear here is that it's just not a very pass-heavy game for Tampa Bay, which could limit turnovers and sacks.
19:08But the Packers, they're not a bad play. There's also the Bills against the struggling Patriots, the Bears against the Jets.
19:14I think you can even look at the Buccaneers against the Packers as a deep play, and then the Saints against the Falcons as a similarly deep play.
19:23Part of me also wants to say Cleveland, but it's Thursday night, and too many crazy things happen on Thursday night football.
19:29But Cleveland's also in an interesting spot. That's it for today's show though.
19:33Thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are
19:40researching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
19:43And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
19:47Thanks for listening, everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly mailbag show.
19:51This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. I'm your host,
