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0:57What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen. I'm Zacharyarysen in this episode 1133 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
1:03Thanks for tuning in. Before we get to the transactions this week, if you'd also like this list directly to your email
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1:21This transactions list every Tuesday morning. An awesome matchups column from Brandon Gadula.
1:25There's a wrap-up email from David Kitchen at the end of every week.
1:29It's a great newsletter. Check it out, lateround.com. Add Braylon Allen.
1:33So, Brees Hall suffered a quad injury in week three.
1:36That's obviously some big news for fantasy football purposes.
1:39It sounds like he avoided a serious injury, but he is week to week now.
1:44After Brees Hall left that game, New York leaned heavily on Braylon Allen.
1:49He played all 17 of the team's offensive snaps from that point forward.
1:53He had three targets and a 64% route share.
1:56That pass game involvement is not totally new for Allen this year.
2:00He played 61% of New York's third down snaps over the first two weeks of the season.
2:06The Jets were already trusting him in those situations before this Hall injury.
2:10But without Brees Hall, we're probably going to see a little bit more Isaiah Davis.
2:15I like Isaiah Davis as a talent. I actually think he's pretty good.
2:19So, if you want to spend very little fab on him, feel free.
2:23But Braylon Allen, he's your priority add. He seems to be the guy that the Jets want to lean on most.
2:30And they have pretty reasonable matchups upcoming against the Bears and the Browns.
2:35So, Allen could be plenty usable. Add Oli Gordon and Jalen Wright.
2:39So, chances are someone in your fantasy league is going to like Oli Gordon more than I do.
2:45Straight up. Look, his week 3 workload was awesome.
2:48After Devon Hinn left Sunday's game in the first quarter with that knee injury, now we know it's season ending.
2:54Gordon played every single running back snap for the Dolphins.
2:58He carried the ball 17 times. He scored a touchdown.
3:01He got three passes for 14 yards. Gordon seems like an easy go-to pickup.
3:06The problem is, he was the only other running back that was dressed in that game.
3:11Jalen Wright was out with a stinger. It's not a lock that Oli Gordon is going to be the team's RB1.
3:18And that's really, really important here. Because it's not like this situation in Miami is all that appealing.
3:24Miami just lost its best playmaker by far. Devon Hinn is one of the best running backs in the entire NFL.
3:31Despite seeing an elite workload in this offense, A-Chan was still just an RB2 in fantasy football.
3:36So what are we going to expect from his backups who are inferior talents and who might be in a backfield split?
3:44That's why I don't think you should be going crazy for Jalen Wright and Oli Gordon.
3:49And honestly, keep an eye on Jarquez Hunter too from the practice squad.
3:53We don't know how this backfield is going to be divvied up.
3:57So don't spend your free agent dollars as if we do.
4:01By Chase Brown. Chase Brown has not been amazing this year.
4:04But the Bengals have also faced the Bucks, Texans and Steelers to start the season.
4:09According to late round fantasy football's adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers, those are all bottom 12 matchups for running backs right now.
4:17I mean, look what Houston just did to Jonathan Taylor.
4:20But yeah, right now Chase Brown is like a mid-range low-end RB2.
4:24But from a peripherals perspective, everything is absolutely fine.
4:27He ranks third among running backs in rush share this year.
4:31He's eighth in route share. And because I was curious, I looked at some statistical comps for players who have had similar starts as Chase Brown.
4:39I used comparable snap shares, route shares, target shares, and rush shares through three games.
4:44And his top three comps since 2016 were 2018 David Johnson, 2022 Joe Mixon, and 2017 Melvin Gordon.
4:50From week four onward, those three running backs, they averaged 16.2, 18.2, and 18.0 PPR points per game.
4:56Now, I didn't use fantasy production when I was looking at those comps.
5:00If you layer on fantasy production, those comps don't get any worse.
5:04In fact, they're just as stable. David Johnson and Joe Mixon, they remain as top two comps.
5:10And then on top of that, you get 2021 David Montgomery, 2025 Josh Jacobs, and 2023 Josh Jacobs.
5:16And again, that's just looking at usage and looking at fantasy points scored through three weeks.
5:21From week four onward, every single one of those running backs average at least 15 PPR points per game.
5:28Like I said, Brown's fantasy production has not been fantastic.
5:31But nothing about his usage says that we should be panicking.
5:35Oh, and by the way, Cincinnati has scored 86% of their touchdowns this year through the air.
5:40That's not going to maintain throughout the entirety of the season.
5:44The volume is there. The scoring should eventually follow.
5:47Add Keenan Allen. Alec Pierce is on IR. We know that.
5:50This Colts offense is really funneling their targets through Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, and Keenan Allen.
5:56Now technically, Laquan Treadwell ran more routes than Keenan Allen in week three.
6:00But he just played a perimeter role. There's going to be a lot of volatility to that role in this offense.
6:07Allen played a mix of inside and out, and he finished with a 26% target share in week three.
6:13His average up the target was 7.9 yards. Treadwell's was 18.
6:17So I do think that Allen can see some of that scammy PPR stuff.
6:22And as we know, he's just been really good at commanding targets, even at his old age.
6:27He's got a 27% targets per route run rate this year.
6:31That barely edges out Josh Downs for the highest mark on the Colts.
6:35This is not anything new. In 2025 with the Chargers, Allen saw a target on 26% of his routes run.
6:42No other player on the Chargers was above 20%.
6:45He was best in targets per route run on the Bears in 2024.
6:49That was on a team with Roma Dunze and DJ Moore.
6:53At some point, we just have to recognize that Keenan Allen is a quarterback's best friend at this stage in his career.
7:00His ceiling is going to be limited in fantasy football.
7:03But he's a nice security blanket. He gets open consistently, and he can command targets.
7:08I don't see why that kind of profile, that kind of player, should be on the waiver wire in most 12-team leagues.
7:16Especially his bye weeks approach. And over the next couple of weeks, the Colts get the Commanders and the Titans.
7:22Sell Travis Kelsey Taylor Swift's husband is off to a really nice start in 2026.
7:27He looks more like his old self than he did last year.
7:31He's in way better shape, seemingly. Now considering that, if you're going to trade him away this week, understand, I don't think he's just going to go away.
7:40That's not what this transaction is about. He should be okay rest of season.
7:45I just don't think he's going to be this okay.
7:48He's averaging over 16 PPR points per game so far this year.
7:52He hasn't finished above 15 PPR points per game since 2022.
7:56He's also averaging .59 PPR points per route run.
7:59That's a mark that he's hit just one other time throughout his entire NFL career.
8:04And the thing is, he's not doing this through usage.
8:07That's the biggest concern. He has a 19.8% target share on the season.
8:12He's seeing a target on fewer than 22% of his routes run.
8:16The only season of his career with a lower targets per route run rate was in 2025.
8:21He's just making some really big plays. He's averaging over 11 yards after the catch per reception.
8:27His previous season high since 2016 was 6.2. And it's not like his air yards profile is dramatically different year over year.
8:34Our expected PPR points model has Kelsey at 10.2 points per game.
8:38He's actually scoring 16.3, meaning he's outperforming that expectation by 6.1 PPR points per game.
8:43Again, I think Kelsey can be a tight end one rest of season.
8:47I just don't think that he's going to be a high end one like he has to start the year.
8:54Add Keaton Mitchell. A lot of you are looking for running back help.
8:58Obviously, you're going to go to the Miami backfield and you'll look at Braylon Allen this week too.
9:04But don't forget about Keaton Mitchell. Mitchell just seems to fit this Mike McDaniel offense better than Amari and Hampton does.
9:11Which is not what Hampton drafters wanted to hear after week 3.
9:15But we're starting to see some evidence of it.
9:18On the year, Mitchell's adjusted yards after contact per attempt is about half a yard higher than Hampton's.
9:24Though I will say, Hampton has the better success rate.
9:27More importantly for fantasy though, Mitchell's seen the higher route share.
9:31And this was my concern last week when Amari and Hampton was a sell candidate.
9:36That discrepancy was on full display in week 3.
9:39Mitchell ran 14 routes. Hampton had 6. Hampton hasn't run a single route while the Chargers have trailed by a touchdown or more this year.
9:47And as I talked about last week, the Chargers are about to face good team after good team after good team.
9:54They get the Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Ravens over their next 6.
9:59If and when the Chargers trail in those games, we might see more Keaton Mitchell than Amari and Hampton.
10:05Maybe even Kamani Vidal. And there's always the chance that LA just wants to change things up.
10:11They have not been effective offensively. And that could lead to Keaton Mitchell getting a little bit more work even in a neutral game script.
10:19And we started to see that in week 3.
10:22He had a season high 29% rush share. He might not be super usable right away.
10:27But that should make him easier to obtain off the waiver wire.
10:31The bottom line is that the efficiency has been encouraging enough.
10:35The passing game rule is already there to some degree.
10:38And the upcoming schedule could create more situations where Keaton Mitchell is on the field.
10:43At a position where we're always just looking for bodies, I think he's worth an add.
10:49Add Trey Harris. So sticking with the Chargers, look at what Quinton Johnson has done this year.
10:54It's legitimately been really bad. He's seen a near 20% target share in this offense.
10:59But he has 64 receiving yards on a team high 78 routes run.
11:04His yards per out run is under one yard.
11:07Now in fairness, yards per out run doesn't stabilize at 78 routes.
11:10It's just a data point to show how inefficient he's been.
11:14He's only caught 6 of 17 targets this year.
11:17So I think there's a non-zero chance that we see Trey Harris take that role from Quinton Johnston.
11:23Harris led the Chargers with a 21% target share in week 3 despite only hitting a 63% route share.
11:29His yards per out run this year, 2.10. Only Ladd McConkie is better at 2.82.
11:34And Harris has run a much higher percentage of his routes with more than two wide receivers on the field compared to someone like Quinton Johnston.
11:43He's not just benefiting from easier teammate competition. And I did run some historical comps for these guys too.
11:49Looking at Quinton Johnston and Trey Harris. Looking at route share, target share, the stuff that we care about in fantasy football.
11:57And when you look at Quinton Johnston's historical comps, and these are comps from weeks 1 through 3 since 2016.
12:03His historical comps ended the season with kind of higher floors, lower ceilings.
12:07But Trey Harris had some high ceiling comps. One of them, his top one, was 2017 Cooper Cup.
12:13That was his rookie season. In that season, he started with a very similar route share, a very similar target share as Trey Harris to start the year.
12:23And efficiency. But he finished the year as a low-end wide receiver too.
12:27I'm not sitting here saying that you have to drop Quinton Johnston.
12:31I'm just saying don't be surprised if Trey Harris gets more run in this offense and slowly takes over that role.
12:38And despite how the Chargers are playing, the wide receivers on that team, they're in advantageous spots.
12:44The Chargers ranked 5th in percentage of offensive plays run this year with 2 or fewer wide receivers on the field.
12:51I'm bringing that up and I have brought that up because that tends to lead to higher volume and efficiency for the
12:58wideouts who are actually getting those routes. So what if those routes slowly morph towards Trey Harris?
13:03Hold Drake May So on last week's mailbag episode, there were some really awesome calls and there were some really terrible calls.
13:11On the plus side, I called out Jalen Warren, Bay Shawl Tootin, and Michael Wilson as players of the fantasy community just should have been talking about more.
13:20And just targeting more. Awesome. Great calls. But I also mentioned Malik Neighbors still being a high-end wide receiver too.
13:27And that you should stay the course with Drake May.
13:30Well, Malik Neighbors had a sub 1-yard A-dot in week 3.
13:34And we know how Drake May performed. But with Drake May, I'm still saying to hold.
13:39I know a lot of you just want to shoot him off into the abyss.
13:44You don't want to deal with Drake May anymore.
13:47But I don't want to overreact to 3 games.
13:50He's already faced tougher defenses against Seattle and Pittsburgh.
13:53And what if week 3, it was just one of those bad games?
13:57There's reason to believe that things can get better offensively.
14:00Number one, I find it really hard to believe that New England's going to finish the season with the lowest number of offensive touchdowns in the league.
14:09Which is where they're at right now. But more importantly, we know that Drake May can perform against easier defenses.
14:16We saw that last year when the schedule was good.
14:19He dominated in fantasy football. And the schedule is about to get pretty friendly.
14:24According to late rounds numbers, New England won't face a matchup ranked worse than 18th for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed until week 14.
14:32The Patriots get the bills this week and then it's the Raiders, Jets, Bears, Dolphins, Packers, Lions, Chargers, and then the bills again.
14:40I do think an important distinction needs to be made here though.
14:43Holding does not mean starting. Drake May is not something you just blindly throw into your lineup.
14:49He's a matchup play. And this week you probably can't start him.
14:53But I would give him a little bit more time before I dump him.
14:58Add Alvin Kamara and Kendra Miller. So Travis A-Chan has a hamstring injury.
15:02He had one entering week 3 and he aggravated it.
15:05Now he can miss some time. After A-Chan left in the middle of the third quarter, Alvin Kamara played 15 snaps, Kendra Miller 9, CJ Donaldson 7.
15:14Kamara and Miller split the backfield rushes 6-4. It was an absolute mess.
15:19A-Chan was already seeing an iffy workload in that New Orleans backfield.
15:23Now we're getting inferior talent splitting that backfield up even more.
15:26But that doesn't mean that we should ignore it.
15:29Especially in this running back economy. If Kamara is available, I'd probably lean on him as the add from this backfield.
15:36And then in deeper formats you can go to Kendra Miller.
15:40The problem though over the next couple of weeks, is to get the Falcons and the Vikings, which are not the easiest running back matchups.
15:48But even still, I do think they should be added.
15:51Buy Casey Concepcion. So look, I know you want instant gratification for a lot of these moves.
15:57I get it. But sometimes you have to think a little bit longer term.
16:02And that brings me to Casey Concepcion. It's no secret I like Casey Concepcion's game.
16:07He scored pretty well in the zap model. He can line up all over the field and he can create separation.
16:14It just hasn't come together this year. And week three was kind of a low point.
16:19He finished the game against the Panthers with a 30% target share and nine targets.
16:24Both very good. But he scored only 2.9 PPR points.
16:27It was a fifth worst PPR performance from a wide receiver with at least a 25% target share since the start of the 2025 season.
16:35And look, Concepcion managers are probably about to drop him.
16:39If someone drops him in your league, you should add him and stash him.
16:43Because there are a lot of encouraging peripherals with Concepcion right now.
16:47On the season, he has a 24% target share.
16:50He's seen a target on 26% of his routes run.
16:54Since 2016, here are the rookie wide receivers who through three weeks had at least a 22% target share and a target
17:01on at least 25% of their routes run. Chris Alave, Puka Nakua, Zay Flowers, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ladd
17:08McConkie, Malik Neighbors, Jerry Judy, and Hollywood Brown. That's not a bad list.
17:13Now to be fair, Concepcion hasn't converted his opportunities the way that those wide receivers did when they were rookies.
17:19Our expected points model says that he scored nearly 5 PPR points per game below expectation this year.
17:25But that's also why he's attainable. From week 4 onwards, 7 of those 10 rookie comps averaged double digit PPR points per game.
17:33Half of them averaged more than 12. This is not to say that Concepcion is destined to do the same.
17:39It's mostly to say that the usage is there.
17:42There's opportunity for more production. And we know that volume follows talent.
17:46The fact that Concepcion's already earning targets at this type of rate as a rookie, that's a really good sign.
17:53Even if the fantasy points haven't followed yet. So right now you can probably just throw a random bench asset to the
18:00Concepcion manager and get a trade done. And I think it's worth it.
18:05Add Kenyon Sadiq. The breakout happened. I've been talking so much about Sadiq on this show.
18:10It was nice to see that week 3 performance.
18:13Now I'm not sure how the Jets can put this Ferrari back in the garage.
18:18Yes, Sadiq had a great matchup. Yes, there were players injured in that Jets offense.
18:23But a player still has to make plays. And if you watch that game, Kenyon Sadiq looked the part.
18:29And he was banged up throughout that game. He still finished third on the Jets and route share at 57%.
18:36He had a 22% target share. And he was targeted on 32% of his routes run.
18:41His average depth of target in weeks one and two was just 1.3 yards.
18:46It was kind of gimmicky. In week three, it was 9.8.
18:49Now look, of course there's a chance that Sadiq's role takes a step back when Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor are healthy.
18:57But when you get a performance like that from a rookie tight end, a first round rookie tight end with elite athleticism,
19:04you don't want to leave that kind of upside on the waiver wire.
19:08Hopefully you already have him on your team. But if not, you should be adding him this week.
19:14Add Malik Washington. Look, I don't think Malik Washington is some special talent.
19:18But I don't think there's anyone left in this Miami offense that's a special talent.
19:23Now that Devon Achan is out for the year.
19:26Washington actually ranks as a wide receiver to an expected PPR points per game over the last two weeks.
19:33He's underperforming that expectation by more than three points per game.
19:36That's not a huge surprise though, given the situation in Miami.
19:40But look, he has a 26% target share over his last two.
19:44And it's not just gimmicky work. His average depth of target is 9.3 yards.
19:49I'm still holding onto Chris Bell as a longer term stash.
19:52And he saw his route share jump in week three.
19:56So that's good. But if you're looking for right now, if you need some production right away, Malik Washington is not a bad ad.
20:03At some point, you have to respect the volume.
20:06By Ted Aroa McMillan. So it's been kind of a slow start to the season for friend of the show Ted Aroa McMillan.
20:14I say kind of because week three was not great.
20:17He had two catches for 17 yards. But weeks one and two really weren't that bad.
20:23They were just overshadowed by Jalen Coker. Even with a low target share in week three, McMillan still has a 21% target
20:30share in the Carolina offense this year. He currently ranks 15th at wide receiver in expected points per game.
20:36He's just played five points below that expectation. I wouldn't freak out just yet.
20:41Carolina, according to our numbers, they have a third best wide receiver schedule over their next four games.
20:47Jalen Coker is also dealing with an injury. The usage is really there for Ted Aroa McMillan.
20:53He's also seeing more work in the slot. The profile's there.
20:56He was a great rookie. The schedule's there. The production just hasn't followed yet.
21:01Sometimes it's going to happen in a three week sample.
21:04Just know that Carolina has an early buy in week five.
21:08So if you're trading for McMillan, you're going to have to find a fill in pretty quickly.
21:13But if his week three dud created even a small buying window, I would take advantage.
21:19Add Darren Waller. So as I just talked about, Jalen Coker's dealing with a quad injury.
21:24After Coker left week three, Darren Waller had a 59% route share and eight targets.
21:29He ranked as a tight end 10 in expected PPR points in week three.
21:34He's been a top 10 tight end in expected PPR points over the last two weeks.
21:39That's largely because of his red zone role. So if Coker misses this week, Waller becomes extra intriguing as a tight end streamer.
21:47But they also get Detroit. Detroit's been a great matchup for tight ends.
21:51So Darren Waller might be fine regardless. Add the Buffalo Bills defense.
21:55It's kind of crazy that I'm recommending the Bills defense this week because they get New England.
22:00Who would have thought that would be the case entering the season?
22:04Now you could look at Green Bay this week because they get Jalen Daniels and the Buccaneers.
22:10This is his first NFL start. The Packers have just been so brutal defensively this year.
22:15It's kind of hard to trust them. So instead we're looking at Buffalo.
22:20They're six and a half point home favorites. They get Drake May and they get that New England Patriots offense.
22:26I did say to hold Drake May earlier on the show, but we all know this offense has not looked good.
22:33They're third worst in rushing success as a team and they've turned the ball over eight times already this year.
22:40So the Bills at home, they make sense as a streamer.
22:43So we've got a bonus transaction this week. It's to add Kalief Raymond.
22:48Kalief Raymond's start to this season is one of the most baffling things that I've ever seen as a fantasy football analyst legitimately.
22:55And this isn't like Luther Burden cope. Burden had a great Monday night.
23:00He's leading that team in targets. It's just the fact that Kalief Raymond, who's a year 10 player who hasn't seen 50
23:07catches in a season, who hasn't reached 650 receiving yards.
23:10He's currently leading this Bears team in receiving. And it's a Bears team with three very, very good pass catchers.
23:17And the thing is, it's not that fluky. He's getting legitimate usage in that offense.
23:22By the time that game was out of hand on Monday night with about seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, Raymond
23:29had a 21% target share on a 69% route share.
23:33Only Luther Burden's 32% target share was better for the Bears.
23:36Through three games, he's run just four fewer routes than Luther Burden.
23:40He's only eight behind Roma Dunze, who leads the team.
23:43He's also just two targets off of Burden's team lead.
23:47At this point, my head says that this is not going to maintain.
23:51It's too crazy of a story. But you watch these games, it's not like he looks bad.
23:57He's running the really productive routes in this Ben Johnson offense.
24:00But yeah, it's a little bit crazy. He has a 27% targets per out run rate.
24:06He stopped a 20% rate just once in his entire career.
24:09Look, there's a difference between expecting this to continue and expecting Raymond to just disappear.
24:14Maybe this won't continue, but I don't think he's going away.
24:18There's not that much to believe after three weeks that he's just going to disappear.
24:23So yeah, I can't believe I'm saying it, but Kalief Raymond, he's an ad.
24:27That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
24:32If you have subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are messaging for it.
24:38Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
24:45Thanks for listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly 10 trends episode.
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