The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast artwork

The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast on Travis Kelce

Podcast1133: 15 Transactions for Week 4
Play the episode audio

From the episode

He's averaging over 16 PPR points per game so far this year...He's just making some really big plays. He's averaging over 11 yards after the catch per reception. His previous season high since 2016 was 6.2...Our expected PPR points model has Kelsey at 10.2 points per game. He's actually scoring 16.3, meaning he's outperforming that expectation by 6.1 PPR points per game.
Mentioned at 7:22 – 8:54

STACKED’s take

Negative signalBust

Kelce's 16 PPR start unsustainable; regression likely to 10 PPR with lower usage and YAC.

Kelce is a sell candidate despite strong 16+ PPR per game start (best since 2022). JJ Zachariason warns regression is likely: Kelce hasn't averaged above 15 PPR since 2022; he's at 0.59 PPR per route run (career-high tied to one other season); 19.8% target share and sub-22% targets per route run (lowest since 2025). Outperforming expected model by 6.1 PPR per game due to unsustainable 11+ yards after catch per reception (previous high 6.2 since 2016). Expected model projects 10.2 PPR per game. Zachariason expects mid-tier TE1 rest of season, not high-end TE1.

Travis Kelce headshotTravis KelceTE · KCPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight

More on Travis Kelce and from The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast