Late-Round Perspectives: Drew Davenport

JJ Zachariason's bold take: AJ Brown has overall WR 1 upside in 2026. Zachariason was prepared to hate Brown after last year's decline, viewing him as a big-bodied receiver breaking down with age; however, he believes motivation was a huge problem last year—the relationship between Brown and Hurts deteriorated, and Brown was upset with play-calling and the Philadelphia situation. Zachariason views the decline as effort-based rather than talent-based. The Patriots trade provides a fresh start with new motivation and a new lease on life. The Patriots offense is strong: +3.2% pass rate over expected over the full year, 12th in neutral pass rate, and +12.9% pass rate over expected on second-and-8 or greater (a monster number showing smart play-calling). Zachariason draws a parallel to Saquon Barkley's resurgence with Philadelphia and notes Brown loves his new coach.

Increased involvement in Rams offense last year; when Corum was introduced to the rotation, Kyron Williams' fantasy production remained stable (15.8 PPG vs. 15.7 PPG prior), indicating a series-based rotation rather than a true workload split; Corum's involvement did not significantly diminish Williams' scoring.

Zachariason drafted Bo Nix in the ninth round of a best ball draft approximately 15 picks above ADP because he anticipated Nix would not return to him; he uses this as an example of how individual team construction sometimes requires reaching above ADP value to secure a needed player, rather than strictly adhering to linear value extraction.

Zachariason drafted Drake Maye at $3–$4 in the Kings Classic auction and emphasizes him as a personal favorite; he illustrates how spending just $1 extra to outbid competitors on a late-round quarterback is justified and never regretted, contrasting Maye's value with the regret of ending up with Jordan Love instead.

Zachariason uses Greg Dulcich as a dart-throw tight end comparison; he contrasts Dulcich with Tucker Kraft to illustrate the opportunity cost principle—that spending $4–$5 more on a proven tight end like Kraft is justified and should not be avoided due to penny-pinching.

JJ Zachariason illustrates the closed-system principle of auction drafting using Jamar Chase as an example: if Chase goes for $48 when he should be $60, you must bid him up at $49 because prices in a finite pool will rise and you'll be squeezed later. This exemplifies how underpriced elite players create bidding obligations and why passing on deals leads to overspending elsewhere.

JJ Zachariason names Jalen Hurts as an example of a mid-tier quarterback in auction pricing. He uses Hurts to illustrate the opportunity cost principle—that spending $4–$6 on a mid-tier QB like Hurts versus a late-round option like Tyler Shuck ($1) is a reasonable trade-off and should not be avoided due to penny-pinching mentality. The delta in quarterback value is significant enough to justify the extra spend.

Jalen Waddle is WR 24 at ADP with two seasons of 104+ targets that finished as WR 12 and WR 14 in PPR (2022: 117 targets, 1,300 yards; rookie: 142 targets, 104 receptions). In Miami, the offense was designed around Tyreek Hill and saw Tua Tagovailoa's decline, creating a stale offense that hurt Waddle. Moving to Jacksonville with Sean Payton's strong system, a strong-armed quarterback, and an excellent receiver opposite him (Calvin Ridley) positions Waddle as the focus. JJ Zachariason views WR 24 as value and drafted Waddle in best ball at pick 102–103 as a strategic anchor.

Zachariason uses Jordan Love as a regret example; he notes that by mid-season, having Jordan Love as your quarterback when you could have had Drake Maye (for just $1 more) becomes a painful reminder of penny-pinching at the quarterback position in auction drafts.

Zachariason uses Justin Herbert as a mid-tier quarterback value in auction; he argues that spending $4–$6 on Herbert versus a late-round option like Tyler Shuck ($1) is a sound opportunity cost trade-off and should not be avoided due to penny-pinching mentality.

JJ Zachariason identifies Kyron Williams as his running back target for 2025 drafts. Williams is RB 15 at ADP but has never finished that low in his fantasy career since his breakout. When Blake Corum was introduced to the rotation, Williams maintained 15.8 PPG (vs. 15.7 PPG before), showing minimal production hit despite increased committee usage. Williams played 95% of two-minute snaps, 72% of long down-and-distance snaps, 73% of short down-and-distance snaps, and 59% of carries inside the five-yard line, demonstrating Sean McVay's trust. Zachariason values him at RB 50 even with Corum involved.

JJ Zachariason breaks down Rice's legal situation: he served 30 days in jail as part of his original deferred adjudication plea (not a new probation violation), triggered by a failed drug test for marijuana. Since this punishment was already part of the original NFL penalty, Zachariason believes the NFL is unlikely to issue additional suspension. He recommends a 120-day bet on Rice starting mid-to-late August in redraft formats, betting that Rice stays out of trouble during the season when he's busy with football; however, he remains nervous about Rice in dynasty due to repeated decision-making issues.

JJ Zachariason targets Sam Laporta at TE 8 ADP, preferring him over Travis Kelce. Laporta finished TE 1 as a rookie, TE 9 in PPR PPG the following year, and TE 8 in PPR PPG last year before injury. He is a young player with significant upside. While Zachariason notes a back injury concern, he views Laporta as better value than Kelce at TE 8 because Kelce's ceiling is known and limited. Laporta is particularly attractive in auction formats where he can be acquired cheaper than his ADP, and useful in best ball for Week 17 stacks against Chicago.

JJ Zachariason does not love Kelce's upside anymore at TE 10 ADP because that part of his game is capped. Kelce finished 8th in PPR PPG last year but 3rd overall (discrepancy due to games played). He was 2nd in routes run, 4th in targets, 6th in receptions, and 4th in receiving yards. Zachariason prefers Sam Laporta as a more interesting value at TE 8 because Kelce's ceiling is known and limited.

Zachariason targets Trevor Lawrence at QB 11, highlighting his post-bye dominance in 2024: he was QB2 in many formats (top three overall), fourth in EPA, fifth in completion percentage over expectation, and the Jags offense was sixth in dropback EPA despite a mediocre running game. Lawrence's rushing production improved significantly post-bye (averaged 16+ rushing yards per game after bye, only once below 16 yards in second half), which Zachariason attributes to better system mastery and possibly Liam Cohen's influence (Baker Mayfield had his best rushing season under Cohen). With a full offseason together, Jakobi Meyers learning the system, and Cohen's scheme, Zachariason sees Lawrence as undervalued at QB 11. Additionally, Zachariason argues that spending $4–$6 on Lawrence in auction versus a late-round option like Tyler Shuck ($1) is justified by opportunity cost and should not be avoided; he emphasizes never regretting spending an extra $4–$5 on Lawrence.

Zachariason uses Tucker Kraft as the proven tight end option in an opportunity cost comparison; he argues that spending $4–$5 more on Kraft versus throwing a dart at Greg Dulcich is justified and should not be avoided, illustrating how mid-tier tight ends offer better value in auction than in snake drafts.

Tyreek Hill's 2019 off-field legal matter—specifically a recorded conversation involving his child's mother and a broken arm allegation—was the catalyst that drew Drew Davenport, a practicing defense attorney, into fantasy football analysis. Davenport began analyzing the legal narratives around Hill's situation on Twitter with 90 followers, which led to his discovery by industry figures and eventual role at Football Guys. Additionally, the Miami offense was designed around getting the ball to Hill, which limited target allocation to other receivers like Jalen Waddle and contributed to Waddle's decline in Miami.