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1:01Tax, gratuity, beverage, and dessert not included. You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube.
1:08If you'd like to catch the show live this season, you can head to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel at youtube.com slash at late round ff.
1:16We'll be live every Friday at 1 p.m. Eastern.
1:19Without further ado, here's this week's episode. Welcome in.
1:22Welcome in. It's the Late Round Fantasy Football Show.
1:25David Kitchen here alongside the golden boy, JJ Zacharyarysen.
1:27What's the golden boy for? It's a teaser. You've talked about golden a few times this week.
1:33Oh, yeah. Feeling golden. Okay. I didn't know if it was something related to last night.
1:37I didn't know if it was something related to what I said in discord or something I said on social media.
1:44I never know this time of year, so I'm glad I have some context there.
1:48Things are a bit crazy this time of year.
1:51Like you say, JJ, I just want to say we had to come up with another like event to look forward to 69 days until Thanksgiving.
1:59Which is actually kind of crazy. I know that it makes sense, obviously, logically, because it's two months a little bit more than two months.
2:06But 69 days is not that much time until we're just like like Thanksgiving is like the turning point towards the end of the fantasy season.
2:14Yeah, we're already we're basically what I'm saying is we're very close to finishing the season already.
2:19I know, JJ. I don't want to be like, you know, my mom was a teacher.
2:24My wife was a teacher for a period of time.
2:27Sometimes like it gets to be around July and they're already like not looking forward to going back to school, like dreading the end of like summer vacation.
2:36Let's not do that. Let's just appreciate week one.
2:38One week at a time. One week at a time.
2:41That's all this season is. You know, my my daughter was sick this week.
2:46She missed two days of school. She had a fever and she got, you know, whenever you miss school, you miss some time.
2:53You get that anxious feeling when you're about to go back, especially when you're in third grade.
2:58I mean, that's a really, really tough thing to like comprehend and deal with as a kid.
3:03And my mantra with her was just look one step at a time.
3:07She was having trouble going to sleep the other night before that next day.
3:11And I'm like, look, baby girl, one step at a time.
3:14Yeah, so I just get to sleep. You'll deal with that tomorrow.
3:18And then she's like, well, what about this one?
3:21Just you'll deal with it tomorrow. Your goal right now is just to go to sleep.
3:26That's all you got to worry about. Absolutely. I was panicking last night in the late round chopped league or guilt guillotine league and they had DJ more.
3:34They had negative points, you know, a game that has 80 million points in it.
3:39Yeah. In my player has negative points. Yeah. And I'm now like anyone that DJ more is on the, you know, the chopping block in their league.
3:47Very much so. Yes. One step at a time, especially if it's a shallower league.
3:51Like I'm in a, I joined a charity league with CBS and I scored the third most points in the league in week one.
3:59And I lost because I played the team that scored the second most points.
4:03Right. And then, and that team had Caleb Williams.
4:05And then this week I have DJ more on that team.
4:09I also have Dalton Kincaid. So I have this bill stack.
4:12I'm facing Josh Allen. So I'm going to be facing the QB one in back-to-back weeks in that league.
4:18But guess what guys? One step at a time, one step at a time.
4:22It's fine. If I start Owen too, it's not my fault.
4:25My team's actually really good. It's not my fault.
4:28That's just the way that fantasy football goes. One step at a time.
4:32I'm playing my arch nemesis in my home league.
4:35The guy who I talk so much crap to the guy who I've been friends with for 35 years.
4:41He had Dalton Kincaid last night. You know what?
4:43It's okay. Makes two of us. Yeah. Yeah. So that's it.
4:47It is. It is what it is. But last night was fun.
4:50We'll talk about that in a second. Really quick though.
4:53Rest of season rankings. They're out. They are out at late round.com become a member on the website on the website late round.com.
5:00You get the insider tier and the all access tier.
5:03You get access to the rest of season ranks.
5:06You get access to the weekly ranks. We've got the discord, the chat pop in lots of stuff, lots of good stuff going on with the community.
5:14I'm going to mention it in today's newsletter, which you can subscribe to at late round.com.
5:19But I want to give a shout out to the guys that joined me in the first ever late round, late league.
5:26We drafted halftime of Monday night football. And let me tell you, that was fun.
5:30We had no default rankings. Everything was alphabetical. And we had some guys drafting a Mecca, Agbuca, Jalen Waddle in the fifth
5:37round and others drafting Jalen Coker and Pat Bryant in the sixth round.
5:41It was it was fantastic. Pat Bryant went that early.
5:44He went late end of the sixth round to the one.
5:47Not one. So, yeah, it was just it was fun to see like how much overreaction there are other people just scooping up all the value.
5:55Just whoever is left. They were just like, all right, I'm believing that cooler heads will prevail.
6:00There, you know, stuff will work out. So I was a fun experiment.
6:04If you remember, look at next. We're going to roll up more of these leagues.
6:08It was so fun. Everyone really loved. I feel like there should be like I feel like you could do those leagues up until like week five.
6:17Yeah, probably. Yeah. And it would actually be kind of else.
6:20It's like, let's do a league in week two.
6:23I can only do so many leagues. But yeah, you can add another league.
6:27Come on, kitchen. There is a league finder thread in the late round discord where you can find different leagues with like minded members.
6:34So anyways, you know, appreciate everyone for just a great week one.
6:38And now we're looking ahead, JJ to week two.
6:41And let's start with today's news. Today's fantasy news.
6:43All right. Let's react for a second to last night's game.
6:47I don't know if sports books will be around because they had to have gotten cleaned out.
6:52I had like some of my normie friends send me screenshots this morning of humongous paydays.
6:57I'm like $5 and $10 tickets because all the touchdowns hit except for DJ Moore Jameson Williams.
7:02Yeah. Well, the other thing too. So I'm in a text thread.
7:05I mean, we've chatted about this before with my main event partners.
7:09We did a main event team. We do every year.
7:12It's me, Evan Silva, Rich Rebar, Pat Thorman and Davis Maddock.
7:15And the we were all chatting at the end of last week at the end of the games and Rich Rebar brought up.
7:22The point that this was like a class and I'm not a sports betting person.
7:27Like that's just not my angle. It's not what I analyze.
7:30You guys are not going to hear me talk about that kind of stuff very frequently on this show unless there's like some conviction or something like that.
7:39But Reeves does a lot more sports betting stuff with sharp football as we know because Warren being a person who is
7:45very much so in the sports betting space and Reeves made the point last week that it was a one of the,
7:52you know, there's obviously like trends general trends. That we see, you know, in football each year that carry over year over year.
7:59And the one with with Detroit this week was essentially the fact that they played a long game.
8:04You know, they went into overtime. They're traveling the next week, short week, and it's a non-conference game.
8:10And Rich, we kept joking that Rich was betting his house on the bills in that game.
8:15And you know, it hit right like bills dominated.
8:18He's feeling real good, especially at the start of that game.
8:21So I do think that that game was relatively predictable from a bills perspective.
8:25It was good to see, you know, like Josh Allen's getting the love that he deserves for being a fantasy superstar through two weeks.
8:32I do want to say right now he has a fantasy points per drop back rate of 1.09 when his previous best
8:39was in 2024 when he was at 0.7. So there's going to be some regression there.
8:44Don't don't expect this kind of production week in and week out.
8:48Although I do think that we're going to probably see, you know, one of those like monster Josh Allen seasons, which is
8:54a set, you know, like there were reasons to go with Josh Allen.
8:58There were reasons to not go with Josh Allen.
9:01And I think, you know, on the opposite side of the field, Jared Goff is a good example of just a late
9:07round quarterback who can hit in a given week, right?
9:10Like he had 30 points about about 30 standard points in that game against Buffalo.
9:15You know, you can say it was garbage time, but he still got it done.
9:20He still did that. And I think the Lions defense is atrocious really makes me think about what the Saints were doing
9:26in the first half of week one, because I mean, I think I think Tyler's upset.
9:31We have the first half because you had Tyler Shuck last week as your as the guy that I was higher than the market on.
9:39Yeah, no. Yeah. Yeah. And I was I was a little nervous, sweating bullets there.
9:43And then he came through, you know, as a as a strong fantasy play last week.
9:48But yeah, the first half, he had like four completions.
9:51And so I do wonder how that's going to look and translate in a game against Baltimore this week.
9:57But regardless of all of that, I, you know, I think that, you know, obviously, DJ Moore getting hurt is it sounds like he could play next week.
10:05So it's not as serious as what it could have been.
10:09You know, people were saying maybe it was a broken collarbone, but it's not that.
10:13So that's good that he can come back. The Jamison Williams stuff.
10:17You know, I think if you guys read the draft guide, you know, I was a little bit lower on Jamo.
10:23I wasn't like full fading, but I was lower on Jamo this year because just the fact that we've seen multiple seasons
10:30sample size of Jamo in this offense. And I didn't think the offense is going to change that dramatically with the shifting
10:36coordinator because Dan Campbell is still going to have his finger on this thing.
10:41And Jamo has just never been like a 20% target share type player very consistently.
10:45His week one usage was really encouraging, which is why I talked about him being that by candidate.
10:51You know, it's just a role. Like, I don't think Jamo is ever going to not be a roller coaster.
10:57Right. So like, do I think my process was wrong and calling him a buy?
11:01Probably not. Do I think that, you know, because I even mentioned the roller coaster of production that you get with Jamo when talking about him.
11:09But with that being said, I do expect better production from Jamo moving forward.
11:13It was just a bad game for him. The thing that I'm most excited about by far is Dalton Kincaid.
11:19And it's, it's not even close. I put myself out there kitchen when I on the mailbag a couple weeks ago before
11:26the season started when I talked about the player that I had more than any other league or in all my leagues, the player I had most of.
11:34And my answer was Dalton Kincaid, which I didn't.
11:37It's not like I set out to necessarily do that in my managed season long leagues.
11:42It's just kind of the way that boards fell.
11:45And I was getting them in the double digit rounds so frequently.
11:48I had them at tight end eight when it was all said and done.
11:53And that was a few spots for about four spots higher than where consensus had them, where ADP had them.
11:59You know, I was ranking them higher than like Harold Fannin and stuff like that.
12:03But saying that to pat myself on the back, I'm just stating facts right with with Kincaid right now.
12:09It's crazy, though, like if you look at how they've deployed him, right, I'm looking at the that's why I'm looking over
12:15to the left because I have a monitor over here.
12:19He has almost an identical slot share as last year.
12:22So obviously almost identical wide share. Right. And if you look at his the biggest difference, like he's seeing a 25 percent target share so far this season.
12:30And that's obviously a jump from what he's been seeing.
12:33You know, if you look at his targets per outrun, it is up front.
12:37It's 29 percent right now versus 24 percent last year.
12:40And that's on way more routes. That's the big thing.
12:43That was always the big thing with Dalton Kincaid.
12:46Right. It was the fact that he's actually been a top 10 player in fantasy points per route run since he entered the league.
12:53And he just hasn't been able to run enough routes.
12:56And last year he was outside the top 30 in route share this year.
13:01That's not happening. He has a 69 percent route share through two games, which last year was closer to like 50 percent.
13:07So you're getting that uptick. It's just a math equation.
13:10That's what I was talking about over the summer.
13:13It's really just a math equation for Kincaid is that if he does see an uptick in routes and he continues this efficiency.
13:20Now he's seeing better efficiency right now is fantasy points per route runs point eight four compared to point six three last year.
13:27So I think that that's going to fall. So don't like no one listening.
13:31This is probably expecting Dalton Kincaid to maintain this.
13:34That would be pretty crazy. But I do think that right now after this game and if we don't see like some
13:40of these other tight ends like blow up this week, I think we're looking at Kincaid as like a top five tight end rest of season.
13:48I think it's it's that's just where we're at with this offense and how they're deploying him.
13:53Yeah, I've seen a tight end one thrown out and maybe it's not even so reckless.
13:58I mean, I would be look look for for for how bad week one went with Trey McBride for me.
14:04You know, if Dalton Kincaid outperforms Trey McBride, all will be forgiven, hopefully from people.
14:09But yeah, maybe not high enough on Trey McBride after that first week of the season.
14:14Yeah. All right. As you mentioned, DJ DJ Moore is day to day.
14:18They said that he could like I honestly I think he'll play next week.
14:22Yeah, I think it's I mean, it's an extra extra rest to you know, it's a it's a long period.
14:28Someone who's not going to be playing this week, though, JJ Nico Collins.
14:32Yeah, sounds like he's expected to be out. I didn't have all the information on Collins when I did the sleepers episode this week.
14:39All we knew was that he was getting evaluated.
14:42And then the next morning we kind of heard what that evaluation said, which says it was a grade one hamstring.
14:48But usually, you know, players will miss it, miss it, at least a game for this kind of injury.
14:54And so my take on what we well, we got to start set of start Kincaid or Fannin.
14:59I'm going to I'm going to start Dalton Kincaid over Harold Fannin this week, guys.
15:04You know, I'm going out on a limb there.
15:07But anyway, Nico Collins. So with this Houston wide receiver room, number one, it's not the easiest matchup against, you know, like
15:13DJ Turner could lock down Kayshaun Booty in this game.
15:16If Booty ends up playing the primary exposition for Houston, which is probably what we should expect.
15:21Maybe, you know, if I'm Houston, I probably just make Xavier Hutchinson like a sacrificial on the outside and then kind of
15:28do things and move Kayshaun Booty and Jalen Nola around a little bit.
15:32But with that being said, I, you know, Houston did see a little bit of an uptick in heavy personnel usage in week one.
15:39I think we're going to see a lot of that.
15:42Dalton Schultz should see, you know, have a good game.
15:45You know, last year, there's a really good matchup against Cincinnati generally with tight ends.
15:50So I think I think Dalton Schultz is kind of interesting this week.
15:54And then, you know, if you're on the waiver wire looking strictly for upside, right?
15:58My upside play continues to be more Jalen Nola as opposed to Kayshaun Booty.
16:03And it's not that I think Booty is like I think Booty has the better median outcome.
16:08It's just one of those things where I don't think that Booty's median outcome is going to be high enough.
16:14I'm not saying just this week, but I just mean like if I'm if I'm really looking forward to what could go down rest of season.
16:22Right. Jalen Nola is a big play waiting to happen.
16:25Now, he mostly has played slot. He played slot in college, but he's got some tackle breaking ability and he's got a lot of verticality to his game.
16:33There's a little bit of that. Like he's not I think I mentioned I might have mentioned this last week with like
16:40or at least at some point on this show.
16:42It's kind of like what we've seen how the Jags have deployed Parker Washington.
16:47You have to wonder if Houston would consider deploying Jalen Nola in a similar way to let him get more vertical out of the slot.
16:54He did that in college all the time when he was playing with Jaden Higgins at Iowa State.
17:00And so I am curious to see how that all goes down.
17:03I think Nola is a good player. I remember him getting comp to Randall Cobb and the zap model coming out.
17:10There's a lot of versatility to his game. I think he can play on the outside more than he did last year.
17:16So if I'm throwing a dart and looking strictly at upside, I'm going to go with the more ambiguous player and more
17:23of the unknown player and uncertain player and Jalen Nola.
17:26But I would say probably from like a projection standpoint, Kayshawn Booty probably still has the better projection simply because he's probably
17:33going to play more snaps, run more routes and be out there more.
17:37But I do think Jalen Nola is really interesting.
17:39All right, we got some breaking news. JJ, Brock Bowers seen practicing today in practice.
17:44I mean, that would be great for me. I would love to.
17:47I would, you know, my my squads. I'm sure everyone's squads would be ready for that.
17:52I'm not I'm not going to be too, too optimistic about him playing, but it does.
17:57It does make me feel better about next week.
18:00Yeah. As a Brock Bowers owner, I almost prefer him not play this.
18:04Yeah. Like Michael Mayer had really good peripherals last week.
18:07You know, I don't think that we're going to see massive, massive production from him necessarily.
18:12But I, you know, I think the process was OK with Mayer last week because he ended up seeing like a 24
18:18percent target share, really good route share. You know, he's top 10 in those metrics that we care about per route run.
18:25I still think Mayer is a good play this week for from like a streaming perspective.
18:30But yeah, I mean, I'm not going to hold my breath with the Brock Bowers stuff.
18:35All right. It is rush hour in Atlanta with Cooper Rush being the starting quarterback for the Falcons.
18:40Was that officially has that been officially named? I think it's all it's expected to start week two.
18:45OK, I just didn't know because there's like eight quarterbacks that they're that they're considering right now in Atlanta.
18:51Yeah. I mean, at this point, it's just really hard to trust Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
18:56And so if I don't think it's crazy to say I'm going to put them on my bench until I see it, until we feel more confident.
19:04I think it's a better matchup for them this week.
19:08And so, you know, I think that London I have ranked in like with with Rush and like a high end wide
19:14receiver three area or something like that. Pitts is just tough because there's there's some decent type.
19:19Like I think that he's a streamer essentially. So, yeah, I mean, it's it's bad for everyone.
19:24Obviously, B. John Robinson had the highest target share that I've ever seen.
19:28Literally, like in the spreadsheets and stuff. I don't look past 2011 dating back 2011.
19:33Right. Yeah. I don't look past that. I'm assuming there's a target share game that was higher.
19:38But targets started being recorded in 1992. I could probably go back and look and find what what target share from a
19:45running back was higher in a single game. But 57 percent target share last week.
19:49I mean, and then this matchup where we just saw the Bears run all over Carolina.
19:54I mean, B. John Robinson could could really smash this week this week.
19:58Yeah. I mean, some people are debating sitting Drake London this week, you know, and I can understand it.
20:04Yeah. Look, I can get it. I can understand it.
20:07I don't want to go through, you know, I'd start London over that.
20:11Whatever. You guys can check out my rankings if you want on the website, if you remember.
20:16But regardless, like I think that if it's going through your mind, go with what you feel is reasonable and rational because
20:22it was a really, really bad offense in week one.
20:26It was ridiculous. And another really weird thing. I mentioned this on the on the sleeper show.
20:31The the Steelers ran zone on 100 percent of their plays in week one on defense, which is just something that you'd never really see.
20:38And so I do. And obviously, like they played relatively well against the Falcons offense.
20:43You know, B. John obviously had had made some big plays and did his thing.
20:47But I do wonder if that's sort of going to be a blueprint for how Carolina might attack things.
20:53Okay. We've got the Chig Okonkwo. He is also ruled out for this week.
20:57Should we see a maybe comeback game from Mr.
21:00Terry McLaurin? I think you're going to say Ben Sinnott or something.
21:04Oh, no. Here's a name. I do think that this is a good bounce back spot for Terry McLaurin, a team and
21:10the Cowboys that have not been good against perimeter wide receivers dating back to last year.
21:15You know, week one, they were not good. I thought they were going to be better defensively than they were in week one.
21:22And so, you know, I think that honestly, I know I joke about Ben Sinnott, but I think we're going to see
21:29like John Bates just as much, if not more in that game.
21:32What I'm really interested in is the Antonio Williams stuff, a guy that we talked about a lot on this show back
21:39and during draft season and best ball season and such.
21:42I actually have a pretty big best ball bag that I was kind of ashamed of, you know, I was just like,
21:49I'm not telling anybody how much Antonio Williams I have because no one talked about him in the preseason.
21:54I know. I know. But we but we were drafting them back in like May and stuff like that, like a lot.
22:01So I'm intrigued by Antonio Williams as, you know, maybe they run a little bit more 11 with Chigakonquo sideline because they need more of that slot presence.
22:10And maybe we get a little bit more digs on the outside than what we saw.
22:14The problem is that they use the army Brown over Antonio Williams in week one.
22:19But to me, I think digs and Williams can rotate in between Z and in that slot role and then have Terry McLaurin play his traditional X.
22:27So I think they're all like like, of course, digs and McLaurin.
22:31They can be played in certain leagues, whatever. If you have them, you know, there's going to be certain formats where you might not want to play them.
22:39But I don't think they're terrible plays just given the matchup.
22:42And then Antonio Williams is someone to watch out for and keep an eye on because it doesn't happen frequently.
22:48I talked about this on the on the I guess was the mailbag.
22:52I'm trying to think which one I think was the mailbag was one that dropped today, but about how he had a
22:59sub 30% route share and about a 14% target share.
23:02It's only happened like 26 times since 2020. And that's out of like thousands and thousands of games.
23:08So it's not very common for that kind of target share to happen.
23:11And I don't think there was any real predictive nature of those games happening.
23:16But that being said, it was a first his first game of his career.
23:20He got a Lad McConkie comp in the zap model.
23:23Like there's a lot of intrigue with Antonio Williams, in my opinion.
23:27So he was just wasn't someone that could call out on the on the 15 transaction show because the route share.
23:33I might start. I don't want to introduce this to the world, but I might.
23:37I might just start posting some like stash candidates at the end of 15 transactions just to have, you know, in the
23:44back of your mind, because he's one of those players that would absolutely stash.
23:48But we might not see production from him until like week six or week seven.
23:53You know what I mean? And by that point, people are going to be like, hey, you told me to add Antonio
24:00Williams, but I'm just going to drop him now because he's not doing anything.
24:04But it's sort of like the Jonah Coleman thing where you didn't know people who are asking about dropping Jonah Coleman.
24:10That kind of defeats the purpose of why you drafted him in the first.
24:14Like your expectation should not have been that he was going to do something in week one.
24:19You know, right. And I feel that way about Antonio Williams.
24:23He could be more of a second half of the of the season kind of player.
24:28But if you want to stash him and if you want to see what they do without Shigekonkwo, I think that there's
24:34at least some storyline and some narrative we can tell ourselves that they use Antonio Williams a little bit more because they
24:41don't have that presence in the slot. OK, let's get to the lad rib rundown rubdown as I might say is a rib lover alive.
24:49I love a dry rub on some ribs. The ribs ribs, ribs, though, give me the ick after I have like six.
24:55I get that. You know, like it's just the same thing over and over again.
25:00Salmon does the same thing for me, too. When I eat, I can't eat a ton of salmon because it just starts to give me the ick.
25:08It's got to be got to be smoked for me.
25:11But anyways, we hope that lad plays. He does have this rib injury was looking.
25:15Our friend of the show, Jeff Mueller, says it all comes down to like contact tolerance.
25:20So he hasn't been playing or practicing the past two days.
25:24A reminder for those that are listening to this on Saturday, we record this show Fridays, noon Eastern time.
25:29Please join us. It's a fun time. But JJ, where are you at on just this Chargers offense now after that week one?
25:36I'm seeing someone. Oh, someone said rare L take.
25:39I'm assuming that's because of the ribs. Yeah. Also, I think the rub down phrasing is kind of getting people here with the with the.
25:47Yeah, it was rundown. But then I was going to do like rub down like dry rub.
25:52All right. Let's just talk about this Chargers offense.
25:54How about that? Uh, so I if you look at what happened after Lad McConkie went down last week in the fourth
26:01quarter, Trey Harris ran a route on every single one of the Chargers dropouts.
26:05I also think there's a chance that we see more around a Gadsden this week who had a 14% route share last week.
26:12And so, yeah, I mean, if Lad doesn't go, which I don't know, where do you think things are at with Lad?
26:19I think it's anytime like they have contact tolerance, it's not going to feel good.
26:23But let's just be real. There's pain painkillers for that.
26:26Yeah. I mean, like players can play through something like this.
26:30I just don't know. I mean, they were nice.
26:32They were night and day when Lad went out.
26:35I mean, it was a completely different offense. It couldn't do anything offensively at all.
26:40If Lad is out, Trey Harris becomes a dart throw, right?
26:43He did run, like I said, run a route on every single one of their dropbacks.
26:48QJ becomes a more appealing type option if Lad is out.
26:51And then, like I said, I wouldn't be surprised if and there was already some coach speak about this, that Ronda Gadsden
26:58might play a little bit more than that 14% route share that he saw in week one.
27:03Look, if you're concerned about any sort of usage in the Chargers offense in week one, I think that you can take
27:10solace in the fact that they're going to probably change some things up because that offense looked absolutely atrocious in week one.
27:16So keep that in mind as well. Lad, though, if healthy, I think could be, you know, like we had our could
27:23be this year's JSN kind of grouping, right? You know, Zay was someone that we threw out there a lot because if
27:30you looked at market score, the top market score comp for him, as we talked about, was JSN's 2025 season.
27:36Lad was another one because you're going to see a lot more of those two wide receiver sets for the Chargers versus what Lad has seen traditionally.
27:44And that's sort of what helped JSN get to where he got to last year because he was just funneled all of those looks.
27:51We started seeing that with Lad McConkie in week one.
27:54We just need that interior offensive line to play a lot better to give Justin Herbert a little bit more time back
28:01there to be able to deliver the football. But Lad McConkie was looking great before that injury really, you know, derailed that offense and derailed obviously his game.
28:09So we'll see what happens. All right. Pittman foot man.
28:12Michael Pittman. He was a limited practice participant earlier this week and then did not practice yesterday.
28:17Wasn't out there stretching today. So I don't think he's practicing today either.
28:21Never good when you go backwards. I'm just assuming he's not going to play.
28:26And if he does, it's not going to be full strength.
28:29Yeah, we'll see what happens and what what, you know, they end up ruling here with Pittman.
28:34I think that it actually matters a lot because this matchup probably favors him a little bit more.
28:39I would assume that Christian Gonzalez is going to see a lot more DK Metcalf in the matchup.
28:45And that's not great, even though Metcalf had really good peripherals in week one.
28:49Part of the reason why I didn't want to call him out as a clear, I talked about him on the 10 trends episode, but not 15 transactions.
28:58Was that, you know, 10 trends is kind of like the I said this on Twitter this week, but it's kind of like my playground.
29:05Right. I love doing it every week because I can get takes out there, but they're not supposed to be as actionable as 15 transactions is right.
29:13It's kind of like a, hey, keep an eye on this because if this continues, we might be able to be a
29:20week or two ahead with some of these players.
29:23And with DK Metcalf, he underperformed similarly to like how Jamison Williams did in week one from an expected point scored standpoint.
29:29Saw a lot of air yards. Aaron Rodgers aired it out a lot more.
29:34He had the highest a dot of his Steelers career last week.
29:37And so realistically, I do think that Pittman would be in a really interesting spot this week if we do see Christian Gonzalez all over DK Metcalf.
29:45And now it's just kind of scary. I mean, what kind of weapons the Steelers have that were really afraid that the
29:52Patriots would be really, really afraid of other than Wilson finally returns.
29:56Yeah. Roman Wilson and yeah. Okay. Yeah. Roman Wilson.
29:58But then, you know, I think Pat Fryermuth has an interesting matchup as well.
30:03He's not a bad dart throw streamer, but yeah, it's a, I do think a Pittman's kind of important to this offense
30:09to be sort of an underneath type look for Aaron Rodgers.
30:13Okay. Okay. Joe Burrow is playing at a back issue.
30:16He's fine. Let's move on to that because we don't have a ton of time to talk about all these injuries.
30:22I put Zay Flowers blooms back because he was back at practice today.
30:26However, seeing rap rap a poor on the McAfee show saying Zay Flowers is back at practice, but he didn't do very much.
30:33That might take another week. Yeah. I have a feeling he's not going to play this week.
30:38Yeah. So I would, I would assume he's going to be out.
30:42If you want to throw a, a route shared dart, if you will, Rashad Bateman would be that guy more than likely.
30:48And I'm very interested to see what happens with, with, if, if Elijah Surratt is dressed and if they want to use
30:55him because he had a pretty interesting production profile.
30:58He doesn't get that much separation, but I think he can work underneath and in the slot if they want to use him as a big slot.
31:06So I'm just curious to see how they deploy their wide receivers with Jacoby Lane also out.
31:11Okay. What about Travion Henderson? JJ, we loved us some Ramondre and just having that backfield all to himself.
31:17I mean, he had one of the best expected point totals in week one.
31:21His usage was actually insane. Last week. I obviously played a really tough opponent in the Patriots offense.
31:26Just couldn't get that much going. I would have a hard time confidently starting Travion one week off of that injury.
31:33Right. It's not like an amazing matchup either necessarily.
31:35So I'm probably, you know, more on the bench side.
31:38If you have Travion and just kind of see how this is divvied up and then Ramondre gets a little bit of a bump down.
31:46Not a little bit, but a decent bump down based on Travion being there more in that, like, I don't know, low
31:53end RB to high end RB three land. I don't know exactly where my rankings have Ramondre this week, but yeah, I
31:59mean, like it's it's it'd be tough for me to trust Travion.
32:03He can break big plays. We never you know, we know that he can do something on one run and one target,
32:10but I would have a hard time starting him coming off the injury.
32:13Let's get to. The Minnesota Vikings, JJ, because here we go.
32:17Mason has been jarred. So. We have like that one.
32:20I know. I know you do. But we also we also have Jordan Mason out.
32:24We also have Kyler Murray making his way through the concussion protocol could wind up clearing in time.
32:30That's going from Jeff Mueller. So let's talk about Kyler.
32:33I'm I'm still of the belief that Carson Wentz is going to play this week, so we'll see if he doesn't.
32:39Kyler is a pretty good play because it's Chicago.
32:42There has been some data. I remember Edwin Poros sharing this at one point over the last couple of years.
32:48Yes, I roll the R because he's told me that's how his last name is pronounced.
32:53But Edwin has talked about how concussions actually the positions that are impacted when they return to play with concussions are quarterback
32:59and wide receiver more than running back. And the reason probably is because quarterback is a more cerebral position.
33:05And if something's going on upstairs, it might be a little bit more difficult to kind of, you know, there's probably a
33:12little bit of brain fog or whatever. Or you didn't prepare enough during the week.
33:16And it's a little it's just more difficult to just step in and perform at a high level.
33:22So even though it's a really good matchup on paper, so a little bit concerned about Kyler just from that perspective.
33:28And then with the backfield, I think, you know, I'm going to be talking about Aaron Jones later.
33:34I think he's a good play this week. And I've seen a lot of chatter about DeMond Claiborne.
33:39And I'm very much a yes. Add him. That's fine.
33:42Speculative ad. I added him in places. I'm just trying to set expectations here because there's been a lot of beat reporters
33:49that are saying, like, he's not ready. Like, he's not there yet.
33:52And Claiborne, number one, he's a rookie. Number two, he's an undersized rookie.
33:56He's very, very fast. He's one of these players where I'm not going to be shocked if he's dressed and if he
34:03gets like a touch or two, whatever it is.
34:06I have no idea what his workload is going to be.
34:09I don't think we can pretend to know what his workload is going to be.
34:14But he's one of those players. And I'm telling you guys this right now, when he touches the ball, you're going to
34:20get excited because he's very fun to watch. Yeah, he's like a joystick.
34:24Okay. So understand that that can happen and probably will happen with DeMond Claiborne.
34:28But there's more to the position than just that.
34:31So I think he's intriguing because the other guys they have there don't have the kind of skill set that he has.
34:38But I don't expect him to have like a massive, massive workload right away.
34:42And also, I'm just throwing it out there. I am still very, very, very bitter that the Minnesota Vikings did not draft
34:49Emmitt Johnson when I was screaming from the rooftops during that draft.
34:52I think on social media, but definitely in the discord for the freaking Minnesota Vikings to draft Emmitt Johnson because he is
34:59one of his comps was Aaron Jones in the prospect model.
35:02He just he fits. He's a good player. And I know that it doesn't matter, but I'm still very frustrated over.
35:09Yeah, he looked good on Monday night and someone that you should want to look at.
35:13But yeah, DeMond Claiborne, 100. I think he's 185 pounds as a running back.
35:18Yeah. And like his his production profile wasn't out of control.
35:21Like he can be a pass catcher. I think that that's sort of the role that he would eventually play.
35:27But target share is really hard. And I learned this the hard way with Travion Henderson last year.
35:32It's a really hard thing to bank on with with rookie running backs is target share.
35:37Like it's not something that is guaranteed. And it usually we don't see many double digit percentage target share players in general as rookies.
35:44So I'm not I'm just not going to go nuts over Claiborne.
35:48Of course, Adam and just throw him into onto your bench.
35:51But I wouldn't go crazy because I just I doubt we see a massive workload.
35:56I could be wrong. I've been wrong plenty of times before.
35:59It does happen occasionally. Let's round up with the running backs.
36:03Alvin Kamara is going to return this week. Bears backfield.
36:06Both were on the injury report yesterday. We're watching today on Friday to see.
36:10I think Dr. Mueller said that he's expecting him to be expecting them to be like full participants.
36:15But then Kalen Black. This was you know, you don't want to see your running back added later on in the week.
36:22And he was added yesterday as a limited participant in the 49ers practice.
36:26Yeah. If Kalen Black is out, I would replace him as on the sleeper show with Jordan James, because I do think
36:33that we can see a positive game script for their 13 and a half point favorites, the 49ers.
36:38So we could see multiple running backs produced this week for sure.
36:42So keep an eye on the Kalen Black stuff.
36:44I have a feeling he'll be OK, but we'll see.
36:47You know, we you never know. We like it's especially with San Francisco.
36:51We have no freaking idea with what's going to go on there.
36:55You know, with Alvin Kamara, we saw the Saints rotate their backs in week one.
36:59I do think, as I said on the mailbag episode, it was probably a little bit overstated by the mark because what
37:06happens is we see Kendra Miller come in and get a touchdown and it's in the green zone when that happens.
37:12Right. Yeah. Travis Etienne technically had 100 percent goal line snap share.
37:16So that's good. A-chan. Sorry. A-chan. Travis A-chan. I was really good about it on the mailbag episode.
37:22I know you. Yeah, you didn't really good about it.
37:25Really. Yeah. But Travis A-chan, you know, had had a goal line snap.
37:28He was he was at least on the field there.
37:32But his back, you know, his backfield share wasn't that different than what we saw last year necessarily.
37:37It's just that the environment's different. You know, and he still saw 17 percent target share.
37:42I wasn't someone that was like really into that tier of running backs in general, but definitely Travis A-chan.
37:48Like I wasn't I was lower than the market.
37:50I'm just trying to be, you know, reactionary and reasonable about where I'm at now.
37:55And I don't think that people should be, you know, going nuts about trading for him or going nuts about trading him
38:01away just because of that Kendra Miller touchdown. Today's data.
38:04All right, JJ. What are we looking at right here?
38:07Before we started the show, I don't even know what this is.
38:11I don't know. Like what? What are we doing here?
38:14Yeah. With this chart. Yeah. This is just an extension of what I talked about on the 10 trends episode where I'm
38:21looking at because look, there's been a lot more talk about heavy personnel, even on my show, all of that, because number
38:27one, there's actually a couple of reasons for it.
38:30Number one is because the NFL is trending how the NFL is trended.
38:34You know, I talked about it a couple of years ago, just not nearly as much because last year was a really
38:41big turning point with how heavy teams ran their offense.
38:44It's a lot of 12 more 13 personnel. And so what that means is that there's, there's fewer than, than three wide receivers on the field at once.
38:52Uh, so this technically should be less than or equal to two wide receiver rates, uh, in the title there, but regardless, and that's my fault.
39:00It's not, it's not kitchen's fault, but regardless, um, it's, it's allowed me and others to dig more into how important this
39:07is from a fantasy football perspective, right? Ryan Heath from fantasy points did a lot of great work on this over the off season.
39:14I know rich rebar has done a lot of work on heavy personnel use in the past as well.
39:20And so what I'm tracking here is just a very quick look of where we were in 2025 from a, uh, a
39:26percent of plays run with two or fewer wide receivers on the field versus the Delta to 2026.
39:32And it's funny because a lot of the teams that saw a big increase were, cause this can be dictated, especially in a one game sample.
39:40This can be dictated by game script. If a team is trailing, we're probably going to see a little bit more, 11
39:46personnel like Tennessee or, you know, Arizona or Arizona didn't.
39:49That's a, that's a bad example. Uh, Cleveland right is on this list of a, of a, of a decline there, but also there's a coaching impact here.
39:58Coaches are dictating the kind of personnel their offenses are going to run.
40:02And the very number one team here is Vegas who last year ran 40, about 43% of their plays with two or fewer wide receivers in the field.
40:10And week one, that was 70%. That's the biggest increase of any team in the league.
40:15But then Jacksonville really interesting. I know they were leading in that game, but if you look at what they did during
40:22the off season in the draft, they were very tight end heavy, right?
40:26And they talked about using more personnel in that way and their personnel in that way.
40:30It's really big for the wide receivers in those offenses because now they're competing against other tight ends instead of other wide receivers.
40:37And there's a higher likelihood that they get targeted on their route run.
40:41So it's good news for, I mean, sure, Trey Tucker or whatever, I guess, but probably more like Brock Bowers.
40:47And then it's good news for Parker Washington. And then Minnesota is next on that list.
40:52It's good news for those guys, uh, the jets, the chargers and the giants.
40:56But on the flip side, this is what I didn't share in the 10 trends episode.
41:01Miami saw the biggest decline. Obviously that could play into there.
41:05There's a coaching change, but obviously the game script Cleveland saw a big decline.
41:09Pittsburgh saw a big decline, which is not a surprise because again, coaching, right?
41:13You go from Arthur Smith, who has been a heavy say, which one about Arthur Smith.
41:18He was kind of ahead of the game when it came to these tight end heavy sets.
41:23Yeah. But Arthur Smith leaves, Mike McCarthy comes in.
41:26Mike McCarthy has been more of that 11 personnel spread kind of offensive coordinator in the past and offensive mind in the past.
41:33So it's not that surprising, even in a good game script for Pittsburgh that they saw almost a 20% decline in the
41:39percentage of plays run with two or fewer wide receivers on the field from, from last year to week one, Arizona saw
41:46a pretty big decline, which I think is kind of interesting.
41:49Uh, but that also, you know, the, the personnel is kind of dictating that, but they too have a brand new, you
41:56know, coaching staff, Tennessee, brand new coaching staff that changed last week.
42:00And then Washington, same deal. Right. And so a lot of this is just, I, you know, there's going to be noise
42:06to this, but I think there's at least some narratives that we can attach to this as well.
42:12And again, the teams on the top, I'm a little bit more interested in their wide receivers, seeing a slight bump up
42:18in efficiency versus the guys, the bottom seeing a slight decline in efficiency.
42:22Yeah. Don't get me started JJ on the Titans play calling on Sunday.
42:26They had gotten this rated this week and they deserve it.
42:30So I have a take, you guys want to, you guys want to, uh, an off the cuff take that I, I
42:36probably would have to think about more if I was doing a, Oh yeah.
42:40A discouraging Titans off the cuff take. Yeah. Lay it on me.
42:44What if man, no, it's not really taking me.
42:47I'm going to preface it with what if guys, so it's not really a take.
42:51I'm just, I'm just making people think a little bit more.
42:55Okay. What if Brian Dable is actually egregiously bad and Jackson dart, Jackson darts actually better than what we saw last year.
43:01And so instead of us thinking, Oh man, Matt Nagy and Greg Roman, this is going to be rough or it could be rough.
43:09Right. We, you know, it's not like we were really high or low on, on dart this year, but Oh, it could be rough.
43:16There's this, there's this range here where, where things could, what if it's actually the opposite?
43:21It because, because Brian Dable is that bad of a coordinator.
43:24Like what if, you know, it's only one game.
43:27We'll see what happens. But what if guys, what if these, these film bros, Dan Arlovsky, they're breaking down these Titans, like these Titans spacing for wide receivers.
43:35And it is, I saw there was a couple of plays I saw.
43:39Cause I go back and I watch every game on Monday while I'm doing 15 transactions.
43:44There was a couple of games where the wide receivers literally ran into each other.
43:48And they're like three receivers and they're all within three yards of each other.
43:53And we can't talk anything more about that. Let's get onto some better stuff.
43:57The main events, the late round main event. All right.
44:00These are players that you like more than where the average rank for these players are in the industry right now.
44:06And we'll start with quarterback. There's not a lot of quarterback.
44:10I mean, quarterback is kind of quarterback, you know, there's not a lot of hot takes with quarterbacks, but your quarterback for this week is Malik Willis.
44:18Yeah. There's not a lot. Like it's usually like, I think I'm a little bit lower on like Justin Herbert this week than the market.
44:25And so, you know, that means that like I was a one spot higher with Jared Goff last night or I'm one spot higher.
44:33So it's just, it's just a small, like, cause there's not as many players to really talk through with the position.
44:39But that being said, I am three spots higher than the market with Malik Willis this week.
44:44Expert Consensus. He's faced, he faced the fourth highest pressure rate in week one.
44:48That's according to next gen stats data. Uh, he saw five scrambles as a result, which was top three in the NFL.
44:55We know that he can bring some of that production via rushing Matthew Stafford against the same San Francisco team that he's that Willis is about to face.
45:03He was sixth in pressure rate faced. Uh, and so you, you bring that together.
45:08If San Francisco can get pressure on Malik Willis, I'm expecting a lot of potential scrambles and runs.
45:13And if that's the case, then we'll see a decent amount of fantasy points scored more than likely in catch-up mode as well.
45:20So look, we're in QB two range, like deep QB two range with Malik Willis.
45:25I would just go for upside and just say, say to myself, Hey, maybe we get 63 yards and maybe a rushing touchdown from Malik Willis.
45:33And that's going to be enough for him to be a fringe QB one this week.
45:38All right. Uh, let's go to running back. We talked a little bit about Mason being jarred.
45:43Aaron Jones stepping up into that starter role where he's not, he doesn't have to worry about time sharing more.
45:49Yeah. It's also a one week sample here with Aaron Jones that we're like, I'm only looking at this one week, right?
45:55Like I'm not worried about week seven, week eight with Aaron Jones and ranking him rest of season.
46:01I'm just saying this week, the Vikings get the bears.
46:04The bears did not look good defensively in week one.
46:07And Aaron Jones is playing in a backfield that has a lot of inexperience.
46:11You have like DJ Dallas and you have DeMond Clay.
46:14Right? Like I'm not massively worried about what his workload is probably going to look like if you're just being logical about it.
46:21Uh, the Vikings did not see a ton of routes from their running backs in week one, which was a little bit
46:28interesting, but even still they had 21, him and Jordan, Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason combined for 21 expected PPR points in week one.
46:35And so if that translates in any way to this game against Chicago, you know, a beatable defense, I think Aaron Jones
46:42could come through with a pretty strong fantasy day.
46:44Uh, yeah. Speaking of DJ Dallas, JJ, did you see?
46:47Yeah, the, the, the, yeah, there, there it is.
46:50There it is. Him and him and a DK Metcalf, both, both.
46:54Yeah. This is a wide eyed, scary, uh, headshots classic.
46:57I appreciate people who, uh, don't take the, the headshots too seriously.
47:00Yeah, it is. All right. Um, wide receiver. I told you, you were feeling golden.
47:05You're a golden boy. Matthew golden is this week.
47:08I'm 10 spots above the market with Matthew Golden this week.
47:11So it's pretty aggressive. All things considered second and expected fantasy points last week, only behind Amin Ross St.
47:17Brown. He had a high route share, a 30% target share, multiple end zone targets.
47:21And there's a favorable matchup against the jets on paper.
47:24So, and the, the Packers have a good implied team total in this game.
47:29So I think process wise, I like Christian Watson more still, but I would not be surprised if Matthew golden comes through with a decent performance again.
47:37Okay. And then give me your best change. Actually, I guess you already kind of fueled, uh, rant about this next one.
47:43It's Mr. Kenyon Sadiq. We talked about it in the, uh, the late round chat yesterday.
47:48Cause you're like, what am I missing on Sadiq?
47:51And I was like, wait till you hear today's mailbag.
47:54Yeah. Yeah. People like about him all year, all off season.
47:57Well, I did. I talked about him a lot this off.
48:01It's just really strange to me. It's really strange that we live in a fantasy football world where people are looking for the young up and coming.
48:09They want to be the person who finds the random gem that no one is really on.
48:14And usually those gems come from younger, unproven, uncertain players.
48:17And there's a tight end who's in a tight end friendly offense.
48:21And that offense doesn't have a number two wide receiver locked in.
48:24And it's an offense that looks better than last year, year over year.
48:28And Kenyon Sadiq is a first round pick. He's 21 years old.
48:32He had a good production profile, at least good.
48:34It was at least above average, no matter the way you slice it.
48:38If you layer on age, which you should, it was a, a way above average production profile in college with good competition in college.
48:46I don't think that he's Colston Loveland. I don't think that he's Brock Bowers.
48:50Like I said on the show, but it's shocking to me that people are not higher on Kenyon Sadiq.
48:56Just like, I also said this in the mailbag show 75, 80% of the time, this is not going to work out, you know?
49:03So like me saying all this, I know I'm, I'm more than likely going to be wrong.
49:08Right. But that's not how I look at fantasy football.
49:11When cost is this low, you're not having to spend up or you're not having to rank him at tight end six and hoping that he comes through.
49:19I think his route share is going to get better than what he saw in week one, which was like 47 or so percent.
49:27So if that increases, it's not a bad matchup.
49:29It looks like a good matchup on paper against the Packers.
49:33I'm, I'm in a Kenyon Sadiq. I have him rostered in so many leagues, so many, I draft him in a lot,
49:39but also you could pick them up still after this past week.
49:43And a lot of those, you know, regular leagues.
49:46So if Sadiq is out there, I still think he's a good stash, especially if you have more of like a low ceiling tight end one.
49:54Yeah. Like he, he was not a bad prospect.
49:56He's a, he's a good prospect in fact. So I'm, I'm still leaning into that, that Sadiq play.
50:02I have met tight end 23 consensus tight end 27.
50:05You mentioned it. Anytime you give a manufacturer touch on the first drive to your guy, you, I'm just expecting big things.
50:11Yeah. Yeah. And, and Omar and Chad is saying, what's the lowest route share you would, you would like to see from
50:18Sadiq for him to be consistently startable. You usually want, you know, into the 60% range, 60 to 70% range at tight
50:25end would be ideal, but it depends. Like there are other, you know, he's one of those players like we saw in
50:31week one where the offense might give him and force him some manufactured looks and that his like touches per route run
50:38are going to be higher than what we see with other tight ends just naturally.
50:43But let's just give it time. You know, like this, the, the, you and I, and, and Gadula were talking about this
50:49this morning in our meeting because we get derailed very frequently during our, our staff meetings.
50:54But, uh, we were talking about this where Brandon was like, cause Brandon is, is in Sadiq as well.
51:00And Brandon was saying how on best ball, he just kept taking him over and over again in like the 19th or
51:0618th round or whatever, where he was going towards the end of the summer.
51:11And to me, I was like, it was so crazy to not do that because even if he missed like the first
51:17half of the season, that could still pay off, you know, that kind of, that kind of capital.
51:23So I'm just in a Sadiq because I think the cost benefit here, uh, is certainly there.
51:28I also recognize that the odds are not in my favor.
51:31That's the whole point though. I mean, for, for any of these dart throw players, they're not in your favor.
51:37Yeah. We are watching his, uh, his snaps and routes like crazy for week two.
51:42Just want to see a little bit of an uptick.
51:45Like someone mentioned, uh, Rashi rice in the, or Rashi rice in the chat earlier.
51:49And you've actually got a bold prediction for week two.
51:52My bold prediction is that Rashi rice finishes outside the top 30 wide receivers.
51:57This is bold because consensus has Rashi rice ranked as the wide receiver 15.
52:01So, you know, someone might say, Oh, you know, feels like variance is going to be on his side and he might bounce back from last week.
52:09He did find the end zone last week. So it wasn't like all horrible.
52:13But, uh, if you look at his splits against man, like man zone splits are not everything at all.
52:19You know, it's just something that can, can lean you in one direction a little bit more.
52:24Maybe obviously target share route share. Those are going to be more important, but there are some players where the discrepancy between
52:31man and zone is so great that you can't ignore it.
52:34And look, the NFL runs a lot more zone than they do, man.
52:38Uh, you're just generally speaking, you know, like I said, the Steelers ran all of their defensive plays last week out of
52:45zone, according to next gen stats, but even still.
52:47And so obviously a player like Rashi rice, who does a lot better against zone is going to just naturally be a
52:54lot better in more of his matchups and not right.
52:57Right. Well, the Colts last week ran man at by far the highest rate in league is like 58%.
53:03And then last year they were top 10 in man rate and Rashi rice over his, uh, over the last three years
53:10since Xavier worthy entered the NFL, uh, Rashi rice has seen about a two yards per hour run rate difference when he's
53:16played against zone versus when he's played against man.
53:19And so if they play a lot more man, that's bad news for Rashi rice.
53:23He can't beat man the same way that he can beat zone.
53:27And so that's why I think he might finish outside the top 30 wide receivers this week.
53:32I don't have him ranked that low, quite that low, but I am lower than the market on Rashi rice.
53:38The touchdown he scored looked so weird. Like he bounced off that guy.
53:42Like, yeah, I mean, he's good at, look, he's good after the catch Rashi rice.
53:47That's the one thing he can do really well.
53:49Right. And he's, he's finding in zone, like I said, but he's, you know, he's more of that, like big, big yak slot type of player.
53:57And this offense is, is clearly going in a different direction than funneling their targets through that slot guy and Rashi rice.
54:04All right. Next we have a quarterback bold prediction.
54:07JJ Baker Mayfield outscores Joe burrow. You know, I had a similar one last week.
54:11I said Malik Wilson can outscore Jane Daniels. And I was off by like 0.6.
54:16Yeah. Just a little bit. But I was also, I missed the Amari and Hampton one by, by, that was a really bad pick last week.
54:24Really bad. I think anyone that invested in any amount of chargers, like they were just surprised how that game went.
54:30Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But this one's bold because Baker's QB 17 via consensus and burrow is QB nine burrow though.
54:36Gets Houston. We know that's not an easy matchup, even though last week said otherwise.
54:41And then I want to read something from Brandon Gadula did his first matchup newsletter this week.
54:46Now we have some data and he can send this out.
54:49So if you guys are not subscribed to the newsletter, definitely subscribe because this matchup column that he's sending out is freaking awesome.
54:56It's really, really good. And obviously data is limited right now.
54:59And he talks about that caveat and stuff throughout the newsletter.
55:03But I thought this was really interesting. I'm just going to read straight from the newsletter with this is, this is a
55:09lot of the best passing matchups that Brandon wrote up.
55:12One of them was the Buccaneers against the Browns.
55:15It says, despite being featured as a game with a low total, the Bucs get a great draw in terms of passing matchup.
55:22No team let up a higher EPA per dropback rate than the Browns did in week one.
55:27So this could help Baker Mayfield in the Bucs 27th in EPA per dropback in week one.
55:32Get right. Of note, the Browns saw a bottom six rate of targets, the slot in week one, but were torched eighth
55:39worst by yards per target on them. So, you know, they were not seeing a ton of looks against them because obviously
55:46game script, but or even just the rate of targets, Brandon notes, but they were also torched against them.
55:51And there's good matchups for Tampa Bay from that perspective.
55:54But here's the thing that was really interesting. Tampa Bay was ninth in EPA per play on early downs and fourth in success rate.
56:02And then on late downs after adjusting for turnovers, that's and then on late downs adjusting for turnovers in week one.
56:08So they were actually when you adjust for turnovers and you look at EPA because EPA can be influenced a lot by,
56:15you know, a fumble or an interception. And that's why, you know, it's not necessarily as indicative of how good or bad
56:21a player is going to perform in fantasy because turnovers don't matter as much in fantasy.
56:26But they weren't that bad in EPA per play.
56:29When you remove those turnovers, they were top 10 offense after week one, despite a slow start and some costly turnovers.
56:35And so the Bucs are enticing in week two, says Brandon.
56:38So I think Baker, it's like I said on the show, on the sleeper show, create, uh, you know, a, a, uh,
56:45garbage time is created by a garbage performance. If the Buccaneers are, or, or conversely, you know, being ahead from a game
56:52script perspective, usually will happen because the quarterback allowed that to happen.
56:55So you look at their team total, I mean, their team total is higher than Cincinnati's.
57:00I don't think this is a hot take whatsoever.
57:03It's just, there's a big discrepancy in their rankings.
57:06Okay. Um, you have talked a lot, JJ. I'll go quick lot.
57:09So let's do a little bit of rapid fire for the look ahead waiver wire, starting with Malik Willis, Malik Willis.
57:16He's it's not an easy upcoming schedule, but for obvious reasons, I do think that he could be usable in fantasy football.
57:22Bryce Young is another one. And I'm not like, I I'm open-minded to him having another good game this week, but I
57:29don't think they're going to be pushing the ball quite as much as they did last week.
57:34But the question is, what if he does do really well this week?
57:38And all of a sudden they get the Browns in week three and you're like, Oh, I can play Bryce young.
57:44Right. So I can understand him as a look ahead.
57:47And then Tyler shuck as the other one, they get the Raiders and Falcons after this week to match up against the Ravens.
57:54I'm a little bit lower on shuck than others are this week after being higher on him last week, running back Woody
58:01marks, he had a better snapshot than people realize in week one he's, he's still under 50% rostered.
58:06Uh, Keaton Mitchell. What if the chargers turn things around and just go nuts on the Raiders this week?
58:12Uh, Alvin Kamara. We already talked about that a little bit.
58:15Emmett Johnson, Devin Singletary, I think is kind of interesting because what if we do see consistent route share and snap share
58:22from him, uh, stemming from week one, especially if they see a negative game script this week.
58:27And then DeMond Claiborne, we talked about him too.
58:30Wide receiver. The Emmett Johnson pick, especially because Kenneth Walker is being used so much.
58:35Yeah. Like if something happens to him, Emmett John, I mean, it's going to, people are going to be just emptying their fab clips.
58:42Yeah. He'll be an 80% plus type player. Yeah.
58:44Yes. Um, Caleb Douglas, a wide receiver, Chris bell.
58:47I think bell could Malik Washington was not very good in week one.
58:51So I think there's a chance we, we just keep seeing more and more Chris bell usage in that offense from a route share perspective.
58:59Dontavian Wicks. I've talked a lot about him. Kayshawn Booty and Jalen Knoll with no Nico Collins.
59:04We talked about that already earlier in the show.
59:07Adonai Mitchell doesn't have Omar Cooper. I didn't even mention that with Ken and Sadiq, but Omar Cooper is hurt.
59:13So, and look, he was out for most of last game too, but Adonai Mitchell kind of interesting with no Omar Cooper.
59:19Antonio Williams, like I said, increased usage. Uh, maybe we do with no Chica Conquil.
59:24Pat Bryant, Rashad Bateman because of the Zay flower stuff.
59:27And then Matt Collins and Demario Douglas. I probably prefer Mac a little bit more this week, but it's not by, you
59:33know, I think it's more of a crap shoot.
59:36And then at tight end, we have Terrence Ferguson.
59:39Let's see what this route share looks like in week two, after a really back and forth weird week one, uh, from a route share and usage perspective.
59:47Kenyan Sadiq just talked about him. Aranda Gadsden. I think we might see an uptick based on the lad McConkie injury and some coach speak stuff.
59:55And then at defense, dude, the chiefs are still out there in so many leagues right now.
60:00There's six and a half point favorites against a team that gave up the highest pressure rate in week one in Indianapolis.
60:07So I don't know why, I mean, maybe I'm the one missing something, but I think that I think the chiefs are
60:14a good streaming play this week and then they get the dolphins next week.
60:18Uh, the Panthers get the Browns next week. The giants get the Titans next week.
60:22And then the saints get the Raiders next week.
60:25Giants Titans revenge game too for that. All right, JJ, let's wrap this up.
60:29All right. Last week we had the quad box, New Orleans and Detroit winner right there.
60:34Uh, bucks and Cincy, Buffalo, Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota.
60:37I felt like was, that was a good, that was aside from the bucks and Cincy.
60:42That was a really good thought that that was a game that would have let us down.
60:47Let's look at this week's game. You're going first this week, kitchen.
60:51Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I don't mind to go first.
60:53Um, I'm going to go with the, uh, the Monday night hammer and go giants at Rams.
60:58Okay. Rams, you know, on a really, really long week.
61:01Let's see what this offense looks like this week.
61:04All right. I'm going to go here. I'll put it.
61:07I'll put it in the quad box here. Um, I'm going to go for strictly a, uh, uh, fantasy game and I'm
61:14going to go Washington and Dallas as the, as the next one.
61:17Okay. Um, I think, I think there could be fireworks and fantasy in that game.
61:22This game. I'm just, I'm going to be watching this team and whoever this team plays until they disappoint me.
61:28And that is the Vikings at bears. Yeah, it's a great one.
61:32Um, I probably should have gotten the Vikings bears, Justin Jefferson for the Vikings.
61:36We already talked about, um, you know, Jones and then on the flip side, we got lovely.
61:41It is Loveland going to bounce back, you know?
61:44Yeah. I, I, I think that this one is the most intriguing to me.
61:48This, this last one, Jacksonville and Denver. Yeah. That's the one I was looking at as well.
61:53Yeah. Jacksonville, Denver. I, you could consider maybe Cincinnati Houston, but I went, I went Jacksonville, Denver for the fourth one there.
62:00Okay. It's a good, that's a good quad box for, for a good mix of like real intrigue and fantasy intrigue.
62:06I like it. Absolutely. All right. Uh, we've had a lot of people subscribe to our newsletter.
62:11JJ, you mentioned it as far as the good work that brain, the doula is doing.
62:16We have the Monday morning email that goes out based on your, uh, data dump news nuggets, whatever you want to call it.
62:23Then I send a recap. I'll, I'll be sending one right after the show ends.
62:28So make sure you're subscribed to the newsletter. It's free late round.com.
62:31And if you want to become a member, uh, hang out with us, insider members or all access members, you get to go and come into the discord.
62:40It's a fun time. We have news and rumors channels for breaking news.
62:44We have rankings. Um, Jay, you get JJ's notes in there.
62:47So it's just a really solid time. Final thoughts, JJ.
62:50Um, I realized someone mentioned in chat, uh, Demarcus Robinson probably should have been a look ahead waiver wire as well.
62:56So I'll throw that out. That's, that's my parting thought.
62:59All of all the stuff we've talked about and you're just, you're focused on the guy that's you, you didn't mention with Demarcus Robinson.
63:07Yeah. I just said for, I mean, he was on 15 transactions, so hopefully people already knew, but yeah, I mean, I
63:13should throw in the spirit of D Rob. Let me give a shout out to our guy, friend of the show, Kendrick Bourne, Kendrick Bourne, baby.
63:21It was great to see Kendrick Bourne. He took away from all my Marvin Harrison shares.
63:26Whatever. Bourne blessed, baby. Bourne blessed. I want that guy to succeed.
63:30He had, he had the most energy. I think of any human being I've ever met in my life.
63:35Yeah, that was fun. Uh, this show was fun.
63:38We appreciate everyone, everyone for tuning in. Hope you have an awesome weekend and an awesome week too.
63:43And we'll see you here next time on the late round fantasy football show.
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