The Show: Rookies to Target in Redraft, Malik Nabers' Injury, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 1 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 4, 2026
Published
Thu, June 4, 2026
17
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownAntonio WilliamsCarnell TateChris RodriguezDarnell MooneyDrake LondonDrake MayeElijah SarrattJ.K. DobbinsJalen HurtsJonah ColemanJordyn TysonKimani VidalMakai Lemon
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveValue0:11
AJ Brown's ADP has risen significantly following his trade to the Patriots, as he is now viewed as a focal point of a passing offense projected to be top 10 in passing yards.
Insight pageAntonio Williams
PositiveSleeper0:43
Antonio Williams could be a decent PPR option, especially if drafted in the late rounds, as he has shown versatility in his role.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveBreakout0:46
Carnell Tate has the potential to be the top target in his offense due to a lack of competition, making him a solid late-round pick.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
NegativeInjury0:50
Chris Rodriguez is dealing with a foot injury, which raises concerns about his draft value and could lead to the team seeking additional running back depth.
Insight pageDarnell Mooney
PositiveSleeper0:33
Darnell Mooney is being drafted more frequently as a sleeper pick, with the analyst believing he could see a significant target share early in the season.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveRole0:10
Drake London has secured a new contract, and the analyst expresses pride in his development as a player, noting his dominance in the NFL.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection0:34
Drake Maye is projected to benefit from the addition of AJ Brown, potentially increasing his passing yard totals.
Insight pageElijah Sarratt
PositiveSleeper0:52
Elijah Surratt is an intriguing late-round dart throw, especially with Isaiah Likely out, as he could see significant usage in the slot.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeBust0:50
JK Dobbins' lack of usage in the passing game and the addition of Jonah Coleman make him a risky pick this season.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveProjection0:46
Jalen Hurts' ADP is not expected to change significantly due to AJ Brown's trade, despite some concerns about his performance.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveValue0:49
Jonah Coleman is an appealing late-round pick due to his size and potential role in a crowded backfield, which could threaten JK Dobbins' value.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveBreakout0:28
Jordan Tyson is highlighted as a top rookie wide receiver with a strong zap score, indicating potential for exceeding ADP expectations.
Insight pageKimani Vidal
PositiveDepth Chart0:18
Kamani Vidal is mentioned as a potential trade candidate, but the analyst believes the Chargers may not be willing to trade him despite interest from other teams.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveDepth Chart0:45
Makai Lemon has a chance to be a significant target in the Eagles' offense following AJ Brown's departure, but he may not see immediate work.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveValue0:50
Nico Collins is viewed as an undervalued player and is expected to be drafted higher now that AJ Brown is on the Patriots.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeValue0:40
There are concerns that Tony Pollard's ADP may drop as reports suggest he may not be the clear lead back in the Titans offense, which could affect his value in season-long leagues.
Insight pageZachariah Branch
PositiveSleeper0:54
Zachariah Branch is gaining interest as a potential late-round pick due to his unique traits in a weak wide receiver class.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Welcome in.
0:03It's a Late-Round Fantasy Football Show sponsored by DraftKings.
0:05David Kitchen here alongside JJ Zacharysen. JJ, how are you?
0:08I'm kind of everywhere. I had a little camera trouble before we hopped on.
0:13Then I realized I had to go to the bathroom real quick so that you guys didn't get a hurried version of me throughout the show.
0:20Now I realize I forgot to turn my fan on, so I'm gonna be sweating by the end of this, but fortunately it's not too hot.
0:28Hey, go turn it on. Go turn it on and I'll give some promo.
0:32The last time I got, look, the last time midstream that I got up to do something was last summer on a best ball stream.
0:40Do you remember this? I got up. I remember it, yeah.
0:43To blow my nose. Okay? I didn't know that people could hear it.
0:47And then I sounded like an elephant. It was a trumpet.
0:50In my bathroom. Yeah. Because my bathroom is right behind this wall.
0:54I have like a bathroom in my office. And I came back, but I also, when I got up, I was wearing like bright red shorts.
1:02And so everyone just made fun of that too.
1:04So you know what? I, I'm not gonna be saying he's not wearing pants.
1:08Boxers. So you know what? Okay, look, I'm gonna do it.
1:12You carry the show up for a second. Yeah, that's a benefit of, of doing it, of catching the show live is
1:18that you never know what's gonna happen. I do want to say, uh, big news.
1:23Because, uh, like JJ's room, you know, we've got some big fans out there and, uh, you can come to late round.com to get a whole new experience.
1:31You know, we rolled this out last week, a week ago and, uh, things are going well.
1:36Lots of, lots of good stuff, lots of good feedback.
1:39We're still continuing to make some changes. I'm still doing customer service, uh, you know, customer support emails.
1:45I still, I think I have like 20 emails, uh, that I still have to get to.
1:50I will get to them today. I promise. I promise.
1:53So, uh, JJ, how are you feeling about the new site?
1:56I love the new site. Um, you know, I know that you're working your butt off right now with all the, the
2:02migration and the changes that are going on. Uh, it's just the nature of, you know, we knew this going in that
2:09there was going to be a lot of stuff that were happening from a customer service standpoint.
2:14Um, I'm excited because, you know, the episode that I did yesterday on market score is something that I think is a
2:21really good, like taste of what we're trying to do more with the site.
2:25Yeah. Um, I can't promise how it's going to be displayed or what it's going to look like exactly.
2:31But the plan in general is for some of these metrics to be able to be seen in the members hub.
2:37Right? Yeah. So this is not like, like I said last week, this is not a situation where we're trying to become
2:43a data provider or we're trying to chart things or do anything like that.
2:48That's not the case at all. Uh, but what we are trying to do is give you guys some proprietary metrics that
2:54we think can help with your fantasy drafts, with your in season stuff, uh, all that, all that good stuff.
3:00Uh, and, and Brandon Gadula is working. Diligently on some of these as well.
3:04So, um, I'm, I'm very excited about what's to come.
3:07Like I said, last week, I won't talk about it for 12 minutes cause there were some people who, yeah.
3:13Do you want to just real briefly talk about market score?
3:17Why you, why if some, someone missed the, uh, the episode on Tuesday?
3:20Yeah. I mean, look, so, so market score is something that I've kind of had in my mind for, uh, some, some
3:27time now I kind of alluded to that on the episode, but, uh, essentially, you know, I've been doing zap scores.
3:33For a while now, where if you really think about it, zap score is taking draft capital on a baseline and telling
3:40you kind of when to pivot off of, off of draft capital.
3:43Now you get a score for a player. That's zero.
3:46That's scaled from zero to a hundred. But there, you know, there is something, you know, like draft capital Delta, for instance,
3:53which, uh, you know, looks at a, uh, player's overall score.
3:56It looks at his draft capital and says, Oh, the model likes this guy more or less than what draft capital is saying.
4:03The difference with draft capital and what, so basically I said to myself, let's try to do this same thing, but instead
4:10of draft capital, we're looking at average draft position, right?
4:13For, for season long leaves. Now I think the difference between average draft position and draft capital is that average draft position
4:19is just for that one singular season. You know, it's, it's more intuitive to say, I know how many, you know, to,
4:26to, to understand expected fantasy points based on that.
4:29ADP versus expected fantasy points based on that draft capital, because draft capital, since we're using it for dynasty is for, you know, three years for five years.
4:37Like how are we measuring what that draft capital expectation would be?
4:40Whereas with ADP, you can easily do some regression analysis and find what you would expect a player to score at a certain overall ADP.
4:48Right. And so the idea with market scores and say, okay, this wide receiver is drafted 50th overall historically.
4:54Historically that's let's say, I don't have the number in front of me, but historically based on the, what we've seen from
5:002014 onward that would provide typically 13 PPR points per game.
5:03But based on all of these inputs, his market score might be plus one, which means yes, hypothetically, he would be projected
5:10to score 14 PPR points per game. But I don't want this to be a projections model from that perspective.
5:16Like I don't want people to walk away from market score and say, this is what JJ is projecting this player because projections are a different methodology.
5:24It's a different approach. This is saying that based on these inputs that we've tested, this is how many points above or
5:31below that 13 mark we would expect that player to score.
5:34So a player, you know, I use the CD lamb, George Pickens example, you know, on the show.
5:39So it's not to say that I'm going to love the players that market score loves or what have you.
5:45It's just a tool for us to, to get to a better conclusion and to, to be a little bit more accurate,
5:52but you know, market score really does not like CD lamb right now.
5:56And it really likes George Pickens, which I think intuitively makes a lot of sense.
6:00There's a discussion about this on discord earlier this week, um, or I guess yesterday.
6:05And the discussion was basically like, why does market score like George Pickens?
6:09And why does it not like CD lamb? Well, it's using previous season numbers and we tested seasons before previous season and
6:15previous season numbers got by far the most signal.
6:18And so that's why they're going to get more weight.
6:21And if you look at George Pickens 2025 and CD lambs 2025, and then you look at the discrepancy in draft capital
6:27right now and in 88, I understand why CD lamb is going well ahead of George Pickens because we as fantasy managers
6:34intuitively know that, that CD lamb has had this backbone and we feel more comfortable with them.
6:39And there's that side of things. And George Pickens might hold out.
6:43Like there's a lot of stuff going on that makes sense as to why there is that gap in ADP between those two players.
6:50But if you really like look at what they did last season, it's, it's not surprising that market score says CD lamb
6:56and George Pickens should be closer together than, than what their ADP suggests right now, where it likes George Pickens.
7:02It doesn't like CD lamb. And that's, that's the main reasons because it's looking at previous season numbers.
7:08But again, I layer on my own analysis. I'm just using this as like a baseline.
7:13And to me, it's similar to zap scores from the perspective of like, I mean, I'm probably tied to zap scores even
7:19more than I would be this, but it's similar in that it's something that keeps me grounded.
7:24You know, if there's a player that market score is like, stay far away from this guy, but I like him in
7:31some way, I might still like him, but I'm probably going to like him less.
7:35You know, I think that that's a rational thing to do when you know that you have a process oriented metric that's
7:42going to capture things that, you know, you might not be capturing.
7:45And so that, that's what metrics are for. You know, that's what analytics are for.
7:50They're, they're there to help us make better decisions.
7:53And in the draft guide this year, market score is going to be featured pretty heavily where I'm doing a lot of
7:59the analysis that I did on that show very briefly on that show.
8:03But I'm talking more like, you know, the, the stuff where I said, you know, if a quarterback had a score of
8:10minus 0.5 or worse than this was his hit rate, but if it's one or better than that, it's similar to other
8:16stuff that you've seen in the draft guide before with other metrics, but it's specifically with market score.
8:22So market score is going to have a section in the draft guide for every position for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end.
8:29And then in that I can say, here are your red flag players with market score and here are your green flag ones.
8:36And then the one thing I, the last thing I want to say about market score is, you know, I mentioned that ADP is dynamic.
8:43So market scores will, and like they will, they will change throughout the summer because ADP changes, right?
8:48The one thing that I've gotten some feedback where people are like, well, you could do this.
8:53You could do this. Because yeah, what the plan is, is to say what break even market score would be right.
9:00Where, where does market score say this player should generally be drafted at, right?
9:04And then from there, because every draft is going to be so different.
9:08You can say, oh, I'm getting this, you know, the market score says he's a decent pick at 30th overall as a break even.
9:15I'm going to get him at 35th overall. So then therefore he, but you know, and then I'll show his ADP as
9:22well, what the market score is based off of.
9:24So if the, if the market score is based off of an ADP of 40 and then his break even ADP is
9:3130 and you're looking at him at 38, then you can say, yeah, market score would think that this guy's still a value.
9:38Because he's still, yes, his ADP is a little bit higher, but he could go even higher than that before we start
9:44to get into, into red flag territory. Right. So that's sort of the way that I'm thinking about this right now.
9:51There's a lot more to come. You know, there's a lot more, like we're still testing some stuff with market score.
9:57You know, I had a meeting with Brandon yesterday and, and Gadula is doing some testing with some metrics, you know, that,
10:03that we want to add and layer on top of what we've already done.
10:08So it's still a work in progress to a degree, but we're going to finish that up here very, very soon for at least this season.
10:15And I think it's just going to become another one of those things that I'm iterating each year, similar to zap score.
10:22Very nice. I like how we said we weren't going to do 12 minutes promotion and now we are up to 11 minutes.
10:29But this is football talk. Okay. The other thing they were mad, they were mad because we were talking about the website
10:35for 10 minutes, which is obviously just brand related.
10:38This at least is going to help you guys when you're, I mean, technically late round.com should be helping you guys.
10:44I'm teasing. It's what I do. The girls made me watch an episode of blue last night was that's about teasing when the dad teases.
10:52No dad, this is you. This is so. So that's what I do.
10:56I tease. Speaking of tease, we have the pre-draft or the pre-order for the draft guide available on the site.
11:02And then we'd like to shout out to our sponsor this year, DraftKings running it back for the second year in a row.
11:08They've got draft one, get one. So use promo code late round or use the link in the description for the best ball millionaire maker.
11:16Three millionaires this year. It's going to be huge.
11:19If you haven't already after this episode, go back and listen to the first episode of becoming a best ball bro.
11:25That was released this morning. And again, shout out to our sponsor, DraftKings.
11:29We'll be doing more live streams as the season progresses as well.
11:32Super excited about that. They have a best ball week promotion where every week they have promotion on DraftKings.
11:38So good stuff there, JJ. With that being said, we do have some stuff to talk about.
11:43We actually have some news to talk about. And that's coming up next on today's news.
11:48Today's fantasy news. Brace yourself, JJ. AJ Brown reportedly traded to the Pats.
11:52Shocker. I didn't. I just didn't see it coming.
11:54It's crazy. I'm just crazy. Shocked that this went down.
11:57The craziest thing is that people knew this was happening.
12:00Like everyone knew this was happening. And yet as soon as it happens, he magically starts just racing up best ball draft boards.
12:07That's what I'm most. I'm really. So like I was talking about the MFL 10 of death last week and I drafted
12:14Devante Smith over AJ Brown mostly because I it's a league where I just want to make a stand and just say like I like Devante Smith.
12:22You know, whatever. Yeah. Yeah. Um, but I, I will say immediately when I saw the market reaction to AJ Brown, I regretted making the Smith.
12:30I wasn't, I wasn't taking Smith over AJ Brown in my like, you know, Millie drafts or anything like that.
12:36And I, you know, if you guys look at my rankings over on late round.com, uh, AJ Brown is a tier ahead
12:42of Devante Smith, but it is shocking how this always happens.
12:46And this is exactly why, in my opinion, the Brandon, I use the Stefan digs, especially digs the, uh, you know, the Kayshawn booty, even to a degree.
12:54I think those players are good best ball clicks right now because we're probably going to see some CLV based on them
13:00probably moving teams or, you know, shifting at least like at the very least Stefan digs, you know, digs is like a 12, 13th rounder.
13:08And, you know, he's more than likely going to see a boost no matter where he ends up going.
13:14Um, but yeah, AJ Brown to the Patriots is, you know, I, I mentioned this on a mailbag episode a handful of
13:20weeks ago, a couple months ago when someone asked about AJ Brown, he had a down year, but it's pretty crazy.
13:26When you look at his per route run numbers, how this is the first year that he was below a two and
13:33yards per route run, which yards per route run.
13:36If you're over two, you're in like 80th plus percentile territory, if not higher, I don't know the exact percentile.
13:42That's usually like a baseline where we're like, this is the elite players.
13:46They usually get to that mark. And he was barely below it.
13:49I think it was at like 1.94 or something according to PFFs data.
13:53And, uh, but it was a down year for him, right?
13:56Like even in, in expected fantasy points per game versus, versus what he actually scored.
14:01He was like less than a point from expectation last year.
14:04Like he, he didn't have that, that bad of a year.
14:07Now, if you want to make the argument that you don't want to invest in what a 29 year old wide receiver
14:14who, uh, you know, has had some off the field stuff, you know, to at least get to this point.
14:20You know, I, I think that, that AJ Brown's a little bit misunderstood probably, but, um, you know, to get to this
14:27point in that, you know, there was rumors that the Rams were in on him, but they didn't want him because of medicals.
14:33I saw, uh, you know, if you want to fade from the demographic perspective of AJ Brown, that's fine.
14:39I'm, I'm kind of nervous. I would be nervous to do that full, full blown, you know, with, with him going to
14:46a Patriots team that should put up a lot of passing yards, you know, from a projection standpoint, they're going to comfortably
14:52be top 10 in projected passing yards. You know, it's a totally different environment from what he's been used to with Jalen hurts.
14:59Um, and while Drake may has historically kind of spread things around, you know, I don't think that he's number one in
15:06the NFL had a player like this, but also, um, you know, I, I, I think that if you make the move
15:12like this as new England, you know, you're making him the focal point of your offense.
15:17So I understand why he's risen in ADP. I, I kind of regret the way that I've approached AJ Brown this off
15:24season because, uh, I, I wasn't quite bullish enough on him.
15:27You know, I think I'm at like nine or 10% or something like that in best ball.
15:32Uh, and now, you know, I've seen some people say that they would take them over like Drake London.
15:38I'm not there, you know? And so if that, if he keeps creeping up, that's, that's the fear.
15:43I think that he probably belongs in that, like Nico range, you know, like I think Nico's at the top of that
15:50tier and AJ Brown closer to the bottom of the tier, but I really like Nico too.
15:55You know, like that's part of the, like, I think he's just an undervalued player in general.
16:00So, uh, you know, good move all around for fantasy.
16:03Devante Smith gets a nice bump. He's had some pretty good splits when one of Goddard or AJ Brown have been out.
16:09Um, I'm still relatively bullish on, on Sean Mannion being the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia.
16:14And, you know, I think that we're still downplaying how bad Kevin Petulo was for them last year.
16:19So I, I still like Devante Smith a whole lot.
16:22Uh, I think that he's, you know, should be going in, in early round three.
16:27Uh, if AJ Brown's like late round two, something like that.
16:30Uh, so, so yeah, I mean, it's a, it's a big win for fantasy football.
16:34I think in general, Drake may gets a boost, you know, maybe a little bit of a doc on Jalen hurts, but
16:41Jalen hurts has been going later anyway. Like that's the weird thing is that I don't think Jalen hurts his ADP is
16:47going to change based on this, but in best ball, but AJ Brown's is right.
16:52So the market was factoring this in for Jalen hurts to a degree.
16:56But it wasn't with AJ Brown. To some degree.
16:59Uh, he has fallen because like the Jalen hurts, the Jalen hurts ADP makes no sense to me.
17:04Well, and he apparently threw, you know, interception first pass, you know, and so, but our ranks are best ball ranks that available on late round.com.
17:12I've been them imported past two drafts. He has been falling relatively to, so I have to see where the ADP is
17:18at the top of the list for you. He's at the top of the list.
17:23Yeah. When it comes to, but again, I mean, he's like in the mid seventies.
17:27It's a, it's a really good click. Hopefully we'll talk about, uh, Makai limit in a second.
17:32I want to, I want to address something really quick going back to market score, totally switching topics because someone, someone mentioned
17:39this in the comments and this is an interactive show.
17:42Yeah. Uh, Trey says, interesting to think about how we assess market score after the fact when thinking about late round picks
17:48where losses or small wins don't count for much, but big wins matter a lot.
17:53I do want to say with market score, I don't think we're going to publish scores for guys past like round 10 for this very reason.
18:01Right. We, we are not attempting to look at floor outcomes at all for it.
18:05Obviously this is a, an expectation type metric, right?
18:08And it's more of a projection type metric. So I'm really looking at, and with this metric, I'm looking at the extremes.
18:14Like I'm really going to try to see like who it really hates or who it really loves.
18:20And, you know, based on that analysis, you can really find some, some gems similar to what you guys have seen in
18:26the draft guide in the past with like really, really bad middle round running back yards per hour run and stuff like that.
18:33Right. Um, and so, and yes, it's going to capture some of those metrics too within market score, but when it comes
18:40to late round picks, I don't think that we're going to be publishing those, uh, because there's just, so much volatility, like
18:46even middle round picks, you could argue is too much volatility for something like this.
18:51Whereas the early round ones are definitely where, you know, you can just because there's like, if you look at ADP versus
18:57actual result and the correlation in the middle rounds, uh, each year, it's not very strong.
19:02Like it's, it's not very good at each position, but once you get into the early rounds, it's, it's fairly strong.
19:08Um, so it doesn't mean that ADP is worthless.
19:11It's a very usable tool, especially when looking at, you know, how to, how to, uh, extract as much value as possible in your draft.
19:19But, uh, with late round picks with, with market score, they're, they're probably, it's probably not a metric for those guys.
19:25It's, it's not a metric that we should be that concerned about.
19:28All right. Um, let's talk about really the big story and that's Malik neighbors, balcony.
19:33I don't know if Bach is a big story.
19:36I see you don't have, I don't, I don't think there's even a, uh, miles Garrett thing on here.
19:41I didn't know if we wanted to, isn't fantasy relevant.
19:44I mean, I guess for Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, maybe.
19:47But, but here's the miles Garrett trade might be the biggest.
19:51Is it the biggest trade? It's one of the biggest trades in NFL history.
19:55Okay. But it's a defensive player. I mean, I love, I mean, I like where you're going back to your IDP roots.
20:01Your brain. I mean, I'm not going to analyze it from like an IDP perspective, but I do think.
20:07I think from a real football perspective, I think it's a win-win.
20:11I'll just real quick. Yeah. I think it's a win-win for both teams.
20:14I see the logic for both teams. And I want to say this two things.
20:19Number one, the way this trade, uh, was formulated.
20:22I think is the way that dynasty managers can think about any of their trades for a big name player, right?
20:28If you're going after a Josh Allen and super flex or whatever the case may be, try to get a tier down
20:34or two in return of a proven asset while also getting that draft capital instead of only getting that draft capital.
20:41So I, that's why I think them getting verse is interesting.
20:44Now he's not in the same universe as miles Garrett, cause no one is, but he's a very young, productive, you know,
20:51pro bowl caliber, you know, all pro potentially caliber, uh, player that, um, you know, it is certainly a good return as an asset.
20:58And then obviously they get the picks on top of that.
21:01So that's the first thing. Think about that with your dynasty.
21:04I almost said it's a great dynasty trade. Like, yeah, it is.
21:08It is. The second thing I want to say is I've seen a lot of talk about the Ty Simpson pick and
21:15people have said, this makes the Ty Simpson pick look worse after the fact to me, it makes the Ty Simpson pick
21:21look better because they knew, or they, you know, they know at least now, or maybe they had this idea who knows
21:28what they knew then, but they, they don't, they don't need the capital in next year's draft to get a quarterback because
21:34they got their quarterback this year and they were in a position to get a quarterback this year.
21:40Now say what you want about them reaching for Ty Simpson, whatever, you know, I get all that, but if their evaluation
21:46said, this guy is really good and we can get him now.
21:50Well, also at that point, not having that contract with Stafford and maybe not knowing as much about what's going on with Stafford.
21:57To me, it makes more sense that they would be doing this because of that Ty Simpson pick as opposed to, oh,
22:03they could have had someone in win now mode right now.
22:06And blah, blah, blah. I like, I think that they're doing the right thing to, to win now.
22:12And yeah, also when in the future. Yeah. Doing the old Patriots thing, having their cake and eat it too.
22:18Yeah. Um, okay. Can we get to Malik neighbors now?
22:21Yeah. Let's talk about Malik neighbors. His leg does not, his knee does not look good.
22:26Uh, there's the big thing was hit was at a charity softball tournament.
22:29Yeah. When I saw that, I was like, man, he, he just does not look comfortable on that knee.
22:35I haven't touched him. Yeah. The pivot. You were, yeah.
22:38Cause you were drafting him a little bit before.
22:41I'm like Malik neighbors. Yeah. He's, he's fallen to the second, into the second round, beginning of the third.
22:47And now it's like, no, it just can't. It's like you are, I'm not going to catch that falling knife now.
22:53I'm sometimes I just don't think it's worth it.
22:55You know, like I get the logic of like, you're getting, you know, you could easily get a value here and same
23:02thing with like, where she rice to a degree, like you can, you can get this value, but there's so much up
23:09in the air that, that I just don't see it as necessary.
23:12Cause the del like, even if you get 80 to 90% of that player with another player, right?
23:18Like you're getting, you know, Devante Smith instead of Malik neighbors, let's say that 80 to 90% in the right.
23:24Like you can number one, still advance very easily in best ball, right?
23:27If you're, if you're getting 80 to 90% of that, like peak production from the other guys.
23:33But then on top of that in the best ball playoffs, you know, there's a bunch of variants where one guy can outscore the other one pretty easily.
23:41So why are we forcing this issue when there's already this known problem, you know, with, with that player.
23:47So I, you know, the opportunity, I don't know where it would need to, he would need to fall for me to like, want to make the click.
23:55I, that's a, that's a question that I probably would need to like sit down for an hour and like, think about
24:01it while I'm, you know, zoned out and just like only focused on that one question.
24:06But I, I, I think the answer is just like, generally speaking, I'm not going to be drafting a player like neighbors right now.
24:13And look, if I'm, if I don't get that value, you know, that CLV from him, you know, as this, as the
24:20season, as the, the, the summer ends, I don't think it's the end of the world because there are other good players that are being drafted around them.
24:28Yeah. And if you look, I don't know if this is smoke or not, but the giants, the giant unks, they have signed now Odell Beckham.
24:36They've signed a Juju Smith, Schuster's, Schuster and Braxton Berrios.
24:39Yeah. I made the joke that in chat and discord that Malachi field, they see a week of Malachi fields and are
24:46already going out and signing other veterans because the model didn't love Malachi field.
24:50But all jokes aside, it's clearly a, you know, to me, they need a little bit more depth.
24:55They need some, that, that veteran presence. If Malik neighbors, isn't going to be ready to start the season you know, should they have gone after OBJ?
25:03I mean, OBJ has the Harbaugh connection a little bit, you know, that he coached him for a minute there in Baltimore.
25:10Um, and then obviously there's the giants connection with OBJ, uh, you know, Juju Smith, Schuster played in the same division as Harbaugh.
25:17Like there, there's always those connections when teams make, make moves, uh, and to, to like head coaches and staffs and stuff like that.
25:24I don't know. We'll see what ends up happening.
25:27I'm not really that, uh, that into, I mean, I wouldn't be drafting either of those guys from a best ball standpoint.
25:33I still, I will say I've been drafting a decent amount of Darnell Mooney just cause I'm, I think I'm a Mooney
25:40truther, uh, based on last season and the way that.
25:43Uh, some people were coming after me as like recommending him as a, as an ad over and over again throughout the season.
25:50It was an L I was wrong. Uh, but I do think that like he fits a, a mold here that, that
25:56the giants could at least give like a 15, 17% target share or something, at least early on in the season.
26:02Okay. We're going to switch to a brand. I, you not being subtle.
26:06This is his visuals that you're bringing up his Instagram account.
26:10I want you to see who he's following the biggest brand, which is his own brand.
26:14Adidas his wife. And then the other, the only other two accounts he's following the Washington commanders and Jaden Daniels.
26:20I mean, he's, he's, he's just putting it out there in the universe, man.
26:25I mean, it's, uh, yeah. I mean, I, I think that, that it could very easily happen.
26:30You know, they've, they've already gone, you know, there's like Rashad white who they, they sign, you know, if they, if they
26:36get IUC, uh, they could have this little, little Arizona state reunion going on in, uh, in Washington.
26:42Uh, I, you know, we, we've talked about this.
26:44I think IUC would fit really well. I think booty is someone that could fit well there too, if, if they want
26:51to down, you know, not, not go to like that extent.
26:54But I would imagine if they think they can control what's going on with Brandon, IUC and bring that in a little bit.
27:01I mean, IUC's a great wide receiver when he's healthy and, and there and, and, and active.
27:06Um, so he would work really well in tandem with, with Terry McLaurin for sure.
27:11I just, you just never know. It's a volatile situation right now.
27:14All right. You mentioned trade and this guy is a trade candidate.
27:18This could be fun. Come on about L potentially a trade candidate.
27:21I didn't look into that report. Uh, was it a beat writer?
27:25Do you know? Yeah. Just like, yeah. Yeah. I mean, like, I feel like in situations like that, it's often like, oh, they signed it.
27:32This makes sense. Yeah. Like this is a, there's a logical thing to do based on what he did last year.
27:39Okay. He had a good season last year and they got Keaton Mitchell, but I would say, you know, there are teams
27:45out there that could use a Kamani Vidal type player, but I would say, and if you want to throw that dart
27:52in best ball, just on the off chance, cause he could have usability even without the trade at times.
27:57But, uh, I would say that this feels like a situation where the chargers would not be willing to do that as
28:04much as what a fan or a beat writer might think.
28:07Yeah. Cause Amari and Hampton already was banged up last year.
28:11I mean, he's going to carry a big workload this year for sure, but he was already banged up last year.
28:17Keaton Mitchell's not a big dude. Like I've been drafting a ton of Keaton Mitchell.
28:21I called him out on becoming a best ball bro as one of the guys that I have a lot of exposure
28:28to, but he's not a big dude who's going to carry a massive workload.
28:32So they need, they still need a player that has proven ability to, to carry that.
28:37And to me, that's still Kamani Vidal. So on a team that is hoping to go the distance this year, who's very
28:43talented, I just don't necessarily see it happen. Okay.
28:46Uh, this one MJ, MHJ, Marvin Harrison, Jr. And Michael Wilson, the next Puka and Devante, because those were the comparisons from
28:53Matt Floyd, that, uh, yeah, Mike, that he got from the press conference yesterday.
28:57And so I'm wondering who's, who's the Matt Stafford of that.
29:00So yeah, that's the problem. Like, like we can, there was a time period in the fantasy football space, like the 2015,
29:072016 timeframe where coordinator analysis like this was very, very popular.
29:10You know, like this guy is playing this player's role.
29:13Therefore he will see a lot of volume and do really well.
29:17I think there's something to it at a high level schematically.
29:20If you know a team, like we've been talking about the chargers, right?
29:24I'm very high on lad McConkie. I think QJ is a decent pick and I have a ton of Trey Harris.
29:30Right. And the reason for that though, is because Mike McDaniel has a proven offense number one, but also he doesn't run a lot of 11 personnel.
29:38And he hasn't at least over the last four years.
29:41And when that's the case, wide receivers tend to get more hyper-targeted in those scenarios because they're competing for targets with other
29:48tight ends or, you know, non wide receivers. And that just boosts their overall efficiency and effectiveness.
29:53It's part of the reason, you know, Drake London's a very, very good player, but I use this example all the time
29:59when he played with Arthur Smith, a heavy personnel, you know, coordinator, uh, he was seeing really great yards per hour run
30:06numbers immediately in his, in his NFL career because he was the only viable wide receiver.
30:11Oftentimes that's, that was on the field for Atlanta.
30:13Right. And so you can look at it at a high level for sure.
30:18Uh, and say, oh, by the way, this is DAV for Devante Adams.
30:21I'm going to fix that one real quick. There's Adams, Devante Parker.
30:25And I know there's a lot. Yeah. That was, that was the Devante Parker spelling.
30:29I almost capitalized the V that there's another one.
30:32Yeah. Um, but yeah, like, like this right here, you could say they're going to play the roles, you know, like you're
30:39going to have, uh, Marvin Harrison Jr. Be the X.
30:42Okay. That's what Devante Adams plays. You're going to have, uh, Wilson be sort of that move piece and be the Z
30:48with what, which is what Puka has done. But who can a cool is a special talent.
30:53Devante Adams is a special talent. Marvin Harrison Jr.
30:56Has not proven that yet. And Michael Wilson definitely hasn't proven that yet.
31:00You know, despite what people think in the fantasy space, because he got a lot of volume last year, you know, we
31:07haven't seen that from these wide receivers. And then you don't have Sean McVay and you don't have Matthew Stafford.
31:13You know, it's like, we can't just make this a one-to-one thing that if Michael Wilson's playing the Puka role, that's going
31:19to make him more valuable in fantasy football because he's playing this role that that player was really valuable.
31:25And guess what guys Puka Nakua is one of the best wide receivers that we've seen in the last two decades.
31:31You know, you can't just assume that Michael Wilson is going to be able to do that.
31:36I think Michael Wilson's a good player. I think Marvin Harrison Jr.
31:40Has a lot of upside, but I would not use Puka Nakua and Devante Adams to justify my stance with those players.
31:46Okay. Uh, we've got more of this, uh, Chris Rodriguez smoke with this injury.
31:50Uh, there was a guy E underscore Dilla who's a big Jags beat and someone asked him about trades and he said, the only trade I could see.
31:59I mean, the only move I could potentially see coming is for a running back since Rodriguez foot is messed up.
32:05Yeah. We haven't really seen too much about it.
32:08We've had, uh, you know, go and talk about just wait for the injury report to type deal, but we don't know what's going on there.
32:16And, and excuse me, if I'm a little hesitant to draft a running back with foot issues after the whole mix and
32:22debacle, as I've been saying for the last year, kitchen, all roads lead to Bayshall tootin.
32:27Yeah. Uh, no, I mean, look, it's a, or the good Allen.
32:30I could, I could see, I could see them trading for like an Alvin Camara.
32:35Like, I think that's, that's in the range here.
32:38The problem though, is that I think they really like the three that they have went healthy, like the, the tootin Chris Rodriguez, LaQuinn Allen trio.
32:45Um, this to me helps tootin tremendously, like more than LaQuinn Allen.
32:49I talked about LaQuinn Allen on the mailbag last week, you know, mentioning how he just hasn't been a, uh, you know,
32:56he was not used as an early down guy at all last year.
32:59And that's why the upside isn't the same as a player like tootin.
33:03I like LaQuinn Allen. The zap model loved LaQuinn Allen.
33:06It's just also liked Bayshall tootin a good bit.
33:09Um, so yeah, this is, this is something that we have to monitor for sure.
33:13You don't like these random injuries that are kind of vague and we don't know a ton about this time of year.
33:20Uh, definitely got to monitor it and hopefully it doesn't change, you know, Bayshall tootin's ADP.
33:25And then I would probably at this point be pushing Chris Rodriguez down at least a couple rounds, you know, if you're,
33:31if you're doing basketball drafts right now. He's already not, you know, he's not the most ceiling player, uh, that you're going to draft.
33:39So, okay, we've got to move on. I just want to note that McKay Lemon already being held out with a hamstring injury appears to be okay.
33:47Uh, Pickens hasn't reported yet to pickens. This might be a, uh, uh, up to the season type situation with Pickens.
33:53Then I'm a little bit nervous about that. That's the kind of stuff that market scores is not gonna be able to capture.
34:00Someone actually mentioned that, uh, in the jet that there is no, you know, there is no like Pickens column for market.
34:06Right. And then Drake London got the bag. Good for Drake London.
34:10He's a, he's a, he's a late round guy, you know, in terms of, of, I feel like I've touted him basically
34:16every year that he's been in the league. So good for Drake London.
34:20I'm proud of him. He's, he was a good prospect and he's been, he's been pretty dominant in the NFL.
34:26Today's data. We've got some quarterback hit rates by previous season rushing points per game.
34:31Yeah. This is something that I had in the draft guide last year, but I've kind of refreshed the numbers and I'm
34:37looking at it a little bit differently. And I think it's just such a glaring and insane.
34:42Not like they're just, it's just such a, uh, a crazy way to look at this and to like wrap your head
34:49around this that I wanted to share. Okay. Okay.
34:52So what this table showing is points per game threshold.
34:55So 18, 19, 20, 21, and 22. And then it shows how frequently these two different buckets were able to hit those points per game thresholds.
35:02Right? So the one bucket is QB one to six by ADP when their previous season rushing points per game was two or fewer.
35:10Okay. So these are pocket passer quarterbacks who were drafted QB one to six.
35:14I'm not looking at this versus ADP expectation. I'm looking at this as purely how well they performed regardless of cost.
35:20Okay. Now you look at QB seven to QB 18 by ADP.
35:24Okay. So these guys are going, getting drafted in the double digit rounds often, you know, some of them in the, in the single digit rounds.
35:31So these are QB seven to QB 18 since 2014 with four or more rushing points per game in the previous season.
35:38So one bucket is top six quarterbacks by ADP with less than two rushing points per game in the previous season.
35:44The second bucket is QB seven to QB 18 with four or more rushing points per game in the previous season.
35:51The players who were drafted later, tremendously later have higher ceilings.
35:54They hit 21, 22 points per game at a higher rate than the QB one to QB six pocket passers.
36:00Right. And then if you look at 18 to 20, the numbers really aren't that far off.
36:05I mean, it's a very similar looking profile. So what this says is essentially, if you're looking at a QB two high
36:11end QB two in that range who has mobility, who in the previous season proved to hit that like four plus point
36:18per game mark with his legs, he is a better bet or just as good of a bet.
36:23I should say as the quarterback who didn't do that, who was not mobile the previous season, but is being drafted in the top six.
36:31Now, obviously quarterbacks were drafted in the top six.
36:34These days, the market's getting smarter. There's not as many, you know, I guarantee you in 2018, Matthew Stafford this year would
36:40have been like a, would have been like the QB five, right?
36:44By, by ADP. But you know, he's more like the QB 13 to 15 or something like that.
36:49Uh, and so the, the, the market is getting smarter, but if you run into these situations, you know, we've, we've run into it before.
36:57CJ Stroud had a really high ADP, you know, a couple of years ago.
37:01I think Joe Burrow consistently is a little bit like just a little bit too high from a, from an ADP perspective.
37:07It's different in best ball with Burrow cause you're stacking and stuff like that, but he's fallen like 17 spots since last year too.
37:15Right. Right. So like, I think people were catching onto that as well.
37:18But again, if you're in a, you know, home league where people are going to undoubtedly reach for Matthew Stafford, I think
37:25Stafford is this year's like Baker Mayfield for me, Jared Goff for me, you know, where last year, those guys were just
37:32screaming regression candidates and, you know, Goff lost two points per game year over year, more than two Baker Mayfield.
37:38You know, you could say it was the injury, but he was never going to sustain what he did the year before that.
37:44And he certainly didn't. And Joe Burrow even like Burrow was another regression candidate.
37:49And while his touchdown rate didn't really regress, he did see fewer points per game.
37:53Now he got hurt obviously. So it was all kind of a weird season for him, but I do think that he
38:00would be like one of the call outs, you know, in this group.
38:04And I'm honestly, Oh, part of me is still worried a little bit about Drake May, but he has more rushing to
38:10his profile than, than a lot of these guys do.
38:13So you don't have to be that, that concern, but it's still interesting nonetheless, even if it doesn't apply as heavily to
38:20this 2026 season, the late round main event. All right.
38:23Rookies to target and redraft. That's the, uh, meat and potatoes of this and starting with Jordan Tyson.
38:28Yeah. Jordan Tyson shocker, you know, highest zap score at wide receiver this year for me.
38:33Uh, I think that he's a very good player.
38:35Uh, the, the, the injury concerns are certainly there.
38:38So we have to be a little bit worried, but, uh, there've been 10 wide receivers drafted in rounds five to 10
38:45as rookies with zap scores above 90. That's the news app, you know, the, the new iteration of the zap model with
38:51the scaling of the scores, six of those 10 outperformed ADP expectation.
38:55Okay. That's good. And like, it at least is better than average four of them outperform ADP expectation by three or more
39:01PPR points per game, which is insane that a 40% rate of doing that is pretty crazy.
39:07Uh, the average wide receiver in that group outperformed expectation by two PPR points per game.
39:11So based on where he's going right now, his market score is very strong for what it's worth.
39:17Um, I think he's a really good pick. You get a fast paced Kellen Moore offense.
39:21The only wide receiver in his way is Chris Alave.
39:24And I think like I've been saying, I think he works well with Alave.
39:29Alave is good against man. I think we're going to see a little bit deeper route tree from Alave this year while
39:35Tyson is able to kind of work the shorter and intermediate areas, which could end up being like a PPR scam.
39:41We'll see what happens. But I think that's in his range of outcomes and that Saints offense.
39:47It's Lance Thomas, a point 2.0. Yeah, we'll see.
39:49Uh, um, all right. So last week we had Pollard fall on the avoids list made up for it.
39:55Cause Nick Singleton is the next rookie to target and redraft league.
39:59I really feel like I'm on an Island with Tony Pollard, by the way, because I I've seen a lot of analysts
40:05say that he's got like league winning upside and, and et cetera, et cetera.
40:09And like, I, that's why I told you last week.
40:12It made me nervous, but, um, I also respect that you're putting it out there because you want to target those types of guys.
40:19It's just not from a process standpoint. I don't think he's that great of a pick.
40:24Like, I don't think, and I have a feeling that his ADP is going to steam up as we get more and
40:31more reports of like him being the clear lead in that backfield, you know, like really the Titans offense, like being good.
40:37I mean, yeah, like I, it's gonna, it's gonna make Tony Pollard fall more in that, like Travion Bayshall toot and range than he is right now.
40:45That's, that's what my fear is with Pollard. But, uh, and right now I don't think it's like, you know, it's whatever.
40:52I I'm not necessarily going after Pollard that much, but I don't think it's like that big of a deal in best
40:59ball, but I'm just worried about what it could look like in season long later this summer.
41:04I do like Nick Singleton though. Like he's, he's, he's third on that depth chart.
41:08You know, you have Spears and Pollard ahead of him, but Pollard, like we said last week, poor previous season yards per outrun.
41:15He was below average and yards over expected per rush.
41:18He's 29 years old. Tajay Spears can't stay healthy.
41:21Uh, he's not doing much on early downs. And then you have Brian Dable as offensive coordinator.
41:26You know, you could say what you want about Nick Singleton being a day three pick, but Brian Dable, the last two
41:32years, Tyrone Tracy and Cam Scadaboo, these used to day three running backs as you know, not necessarily like, you know, Tracy
41:39wasn't like an insane bell cow, but he was seeing a lot of work.
41:43Like he gave him a shot. Like, and, and, you know, there, there were some injuries that allowed some of this stuff
41:50to happen, but I do think that they're going to have an open mind about Nick Singleton.
41:55Like if he's, if he's got it right, then they'll, then they'll end up using him.
41:59I thought Singleton was a good prospect. He had a low risk draft capital Delta, which means the model liked him a
42:06lot more than where he was actually drafted. He had a really strong receiving profile at a good size.
42:12And with athleticism, I do think that there is an out here where he's like CJ Proceis or like, you know, maybe
42:18a little bit more favorably Tevin Coleman, like that kind of player where the athleticism is crazy and the pass catching chops
42:25seem to be there, but it just never clicks for that player.
42:28You know, like the, the game isn't as natural for those guys as it is for some other guys that have, you
42:35know, lower numbers, like worse receiving work or, or, you know, aren't as athletic, but I I'm going to chase the upside with a player like Singleton.
42:43I just think that he's a, uh, like he had good age adjusted production throughout college shared a backfield with another day, three pick and Katron Allen.
42:51Um, I I'm intrigued by what Nick Singleton might be able to do as early as year one, uh, in this Titans offense.
42:58Yeah. I love Tajay Spears, but keep in mind, the guy does not have an ACL in one of his knees.
43:04Um, he's been hurt a lot. Yeah. So, all right.
43:07Now onto Antonio Williams. Yeah. I mean, look, obviously Brandon, Iuke or someone else could go to Washington and kind of hurt Antonio Williams.
43:14And I think at the very least, like if you're getting him, you know, in round 15, round 16, the best ball
43:21or last round of a season long league, um, you know, like a regular home league, whatever.
43:26It's not a situation where like, he's going to be a zero for you.
43:30And we're only drafting best ball at this point in the season.
43:34So, uh, you know, I, I don't think that even if they get someone that Antonio Williams will all of a sudden be a zero, right.
43:42Wasn't an incredible prospect, but remember earlier this off season, when we did the rookie stuff and looked at rookie best ball
43:48ADP, he was the one that was most different from ADP to my rankings at that point in time, because the market
43:55didn't realize he was going to be a day to pick.
43:58In my opinion, I think that's, that was the reason for that, but he's also like not a bad prospect.
44:04He was, you know, his top comp was lad McConkie in the, in the zap model.
44:09Um, you know, the, the, uh, production was good from an age adjusted perspective.
44:13It just never like really peaked, but he was using a lot of different ways.
44:17He's really versatile and they're already talking about him being both, you know, the, the slot and the Z, um, you know, in that, in that, uh, offense.
44:26And, uh, you know, I'm, I'm, I am a fan of maybe it's a, maybe it's a Josh Johnson bias after talking
44:32to him about this, about the coordinator stuff, but I'm, I'm like liking what I'm hearing about from, from David Blau about
44:39how they're going to be under center more, you know, more play action, uh, more movement at the line, just the stuff that we know works.
44:47Like it's just the basic stuff that we wish other coordinators would just do because we know that it's effective.
44:53And so, uh, I, I, you know, this, this team in general doesn't have a lot of solid solid solidified players and
44:59playmakers other than Terry McLaurin, which is why I like McLaurin a lot.
45:03Part of the reason, uh, I think Antonio Williams could surprise and be like a decent PPR option.
45:09And so, uh, I, I like him and you know, where, where he's, he's going right now.
45:14I'm sure if you're using the late round rankings for best ball, then you're getting a decent amount of him in your drafts right now.
45:21Yeah. All right. The Eagles get rid of AJ Brown.
45:24And so you have Makai Lemon on this list.
45:27Yeah, I'm not there. There, there are some people out there who are like obsessed with McKay lemon, like that.
45:33He's the clear wide receiver one in this class.
45:35I'm not there. I think, I think Tyson and Tate are better than McKay lemon.
45:40Uh, but I like lemon. I think that he's a, a really good prospect.
45:44Uh, I don't think the Eagles draft him in round one and where they drafted him, you know, to, to just throw
45:51them in the slot when they knew they were getting rid of, of AJ Brown.
45:55Um, it just, that just doesn't make that much sense to me.
45:59And they're a smart organization, but AJ Brown leaves behind a 29 and a half percent target chair.
46:04Um, you know, you have an improved offense without Kevin Petulo, hopefully.
46:08Um, so I think lemon has a legit shot to be the number two target getter.
46:12And then there's injury upside. If something happens, you know, Goddard or Devante Smith or whomever, it might be a little bit of a slow play.
46:20You know, likely he might, might not get that much work to start the year, especially if this injury lingers to some
46:27degree, but I could see him being one of those like second half crazy breakout type wide receivers, rookie wide receivers.
46:33I don't know if you've seen some of the highlights coming out of Nashville.
46:37Carnell. You've been filming it. You've been going, Oh man, not filming it, but I've been consuming.
46:42It's the one handed catch down the sideline and slow-mo was a thing of beauty.
46:47Uh, but Carnell Tate's next on this list. Yeah.
46:50So he didn't quite get to that nineties app score.
46:52He was just on the cusp, but he was, you know, he was, he was essentially like right there.
46:58So you can use some of the same, um, you know, logic with Jordan Tyson that I used earlier to apply to Carnell Tate.
47:05I think the biggest question with Tate has been, is he going to be a high volume getter in the NFL?
47:12Cause he wasn't necessarily that in college, but there's a lack of competition there.
47:16Wanda Robinson, I think is, is a fine click in a, in a, in a, a good player.
47:21I've always had a soft spot for Wanda, um, but he's not like a massively high ceiling player more than likely.
47:27Um, and so it's really that that's his biggest competition there.
47:31You have question marks elsewhere. Calvin Ridley hasn't been himself.
47:34We'll ask, you know, for, for X amount of years, uh, you know, Gunnar Helm, who knows what's going to happen with him at tight end.
47:41I think he's a good like dart throw, but there's still a lot of question marks there.
47:47And there's a lot of question marks with cam Ward, you know?
47:50So I think Carnell Tate can be the wide receiver one and the biggest target getter in this offense this year.
47:56Market score is also very high on him. Um, there's been 17 rookie wide receivers with positive market scores in the top 100 since 2014.
48:04So top 100 by ADP, uh, the average wide receiver in that group outperformed expectation by 2.1 points per game.
48:10So you're looking at a player who market score is into, and again, market score for rookies is driven largely by what
48:16the zap model is saying and stuff, but, uh, and there's like competition stuff that's, that's factored into that.
48:22But he is firmly in that range in that area where we have seen other rookie wide receivers hit in a pretty big way, uh, at that ADP.
48:30If he gets into like round four, no, you don't want to be doing that.
48:35But I think he's like, I think people are going to be scared off of rookies a little bit more this year, especially in home leagues and such.
48:43We're already seeing it. I mean, the, um, there was a legendary upside, uh, article, uh, or email that I saw this
48:50morning talking about where rookies have gone in the past, uh, compared like with their, where they were drafted and where they've
48:56been going in the past, especially in best ball leagues to where this rookie class is going now.
49:02Yeah. I would be look at MHJ a couple of years ago.
49:05And yeah, I mean, I would be interested to see to, to like overlay zap score on top of that to see,
49:12cause obviously this class is a little bit weaker.
49:15And so, you know, that's going to dictate some of that stuff.
49:18But yeah, I mean, like I anecdotally, I would say, I agree.
49:22Like McKay lemon, Carnell Tate, Jordan Tyson, to me, they're all going like around too early ish.
49:27Um, you know, it, I, I think that once we get into our season long drafts, we're going to find that people
49:33are scared off of rookies based on sort of what happened last year.
49:37And we will see pretty good values for at least Carnell Tate and Jordan Tyson.
49:42I probably even bigger for probably just as big for McKay lemon, because people are just gonna be scared off of that
49:48offense and not giving it enough context and stuff.
49:51Okay. Uh, another one kind of in the next singleton tier for me, Jonah Coleman.
49:56Yeah. I like Coleman's ADP. Um, I, I think that, like I said before, it's, it's so strange.
50:01I've gone on this like rollercoaster with RJ Harvey, this off season, right?
50:05Like where to me, he was a clear sell.
50:08And then I'm like, uh, you know, his cost is falling a little bit.
50:12Maybe he's more of a buy. I still think RJ Harvey right now in that backfield has the most upside, at least for 2026.
50:19So he should have the highest ADP of the trio.
50:22That's back there. JK Dobbins is an, was, was used last year, primarily as an early down target or early down player
50:28without getting much work through the air. Okay. He's a 4% target share last year.
50:33Now you get Jonah Coleman who's bigger. He's the biggest body that they have in that backfield who can pass protect and play a receiving role.
50:41Sure. But I think he's more of a threat to JK Dobbins than he would be to RJ Harvey in terms of
50:47scoring fantasy points and accumulating that volume in a really clear way.
50:51Um, so I like getting Coleman because you're attaching him to an offense that should be pretty good.
50:56He's late. It's an ambiguous backfield. I was waiting for it.
51:00I was waiting for the ambiguous backfield because it really is like, I mean, really ambiguous.
51:04Yeah. I mean, similar to Tennessee, it's an ambiguous backfield situation.
51:08Um, and so I'm, I'm a hundred percent going to throw darts at backfields like that.
51:12I, I'm not going after JK. I don't think I drafted JK Dobbins at all yet because of the target share stuff.
51:19And I'm drafting on a full PPR platform, especially making that, uh, more questionable.
51:23You know, it's funny though. Last year Dobbins was one of our dudes, you know, where, um, I had a ton of Dobbins.
51:30He was getting me through, especially in the early parts of the season.
51:34But this year I just have a hard time thinking that adding Jonah Coleman is going to make JK Dobbins more viable in fantasy.
51:41And he wasn't like the reason that we look at what Dobbins did last year.
51:46So favorably is because number one, he was more effective than RJ Harvey.
51:49Sure. But number two is the cost. It was, it was where we were drafting him.
51:54We're drafting him in like a similar ish place.
51:57I mean, he was even later, I think last year at this point in the seat in the off season, uh, because
52:03he had just like gotten to Denver or whatever.
52:06But like, I think we're in a situation now where all they've done is added Jonah Coleman.
52:11And all we've gotten was more information that Dobbins is not, is not being used as a pass catcher for them.
52:17Like his, his route share was in that like 30 to 40% range consistently.
52:22And that's not something that is a league winning.
52:24So I'd rather go after a guy who's going later who we don't know what the upside really looks like because he's a prospect.
52:32That's fine. Throw that dart. I think he's going to be used at least a little bit too.
52:37So he's going to get you some production. If you're, if you're looking at this from a, with a, with a best ball angle.
52:44All right. Last but not least, Elijah Surratt, just a random Ravens.
52:48Yeah. Random dart. Okay. Random last round dart. Elijah Surratt.
52:51He had a very underrated profile. And what's really making me interested in Surratt is that Isaiah likely is out of that offense now.
52:58And so Mark Andrews and aged Mark Andrews is the biggest threat in the middle of the field for that Ravens offense.
53:04But Elijah Surratt was someone that number one comped very closely to Pat Bryant and Michael Thomas, like these big slot players.
53:11So I kept joking with like Harmon in the, in the preseason before the draft started that, that, uh, you know, if,
53:18if Denver needed a wide receiver, Surratt was going to be their guy.
53:21Cause Sean Payton would be going after him. But you know, alas, they did not need to just duplicate Pat Bryant, but
53:28you think about like what the Ravens kind of need.
53:31They get Jacoby lane, who is a perimeter guy will probably play on the outside.
53:35I don't think he's that great. Like I think he's fine, but you know, I, I don't love Jacoby lane's profile.
53:42Uh, Zay flowers, obviously their stud. They, they, they could very easily use Elijah Surratt who didn't get the best separation in college, but was really, really productive.
53:50Like had a really productive career, got better every year.
53:53There's already been talk about them using him in the slot.
53:56And I think that, that he belongs in the slot as like a big slot player, which could bring a lot of touchdown upside.
54:04Maybe that, that allows him to play both inside out a little bit.
54:07Cause he can plan the perimeter. He's just a really intriguing prospect to me.
54:12And as a, as a last round pick and best ball.
54:15And as someone that no, I mean, he's more of a waiver wire guy from a redraft standpoint, someone to at least
54:21watch as the off season, you know, or as the summer, uh, goes on and you're, and you're thinking about who you're going to draft.
54:29Yeah. We also need to clarify that we are coming up with this list on June the 3rd.
54:34Yeah. And things are going to change. We're going to have injuries.
54:38We're going to have camp highlights. We're going to have trades.
54:41I should have going to trades. I should have put an honorable mention.
54:45I'm, I'm more. Warming up, warming up to a player.
54:48I'd never thought I was going to warm up to Zachariah branch.
54:52I'm more. I'm warming up to it. Okay. Whoa.
54:54Okay. Just because you think he's going to get farther down than three yards.
54:58Uh, just because the situation, I hated the profile, but he isn't early to Claire.
55:03You know, he is gadgety there. They're like invest.
55:06Not only that in rookie drafts, I thought he was going to go so much earlier than he actually went.
55:12I think I was, I was ahead of market on Zachariah branch in the end, like with my rankings, which was wild.
55:18But maybe you dictate the market. Maybe you started this.
55:21No, probably not. Yeah. Uh, but yeah, I mean, like, I think he's a little bit interesting.
55:26I almost added him to the list. I should add him to like an honorable mention, but you know, there's at least
55:33traits that are different for him in a really just boring and annoying wide receiver class.
55:38Market score, market mover. All right. That does it for the target and redraft leads.
55:42Let's wrap this up. All right. Uh, you guys have been awesome.
55:46Again, like subscribe. Subscribe even after, uh, the video is no longer live.
55:50We will take your feedback. Even if it is, Hey, why'd you spend 12 minutes on, uh, promoting the best thing that's ever happened?
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56:00That's fine. Yeah, that's, that's fine. Uh, newsletter. Brandon has a newsletter coming out very soon.
56:05If not today, tomorrow. And also we have newsletter section on the new site, but, uh, it's talking about touchdown regression.
56:11If you're into that sort of thing. Um, and then we also have, of course, our membership prospect guide pre-order the draft
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56:28I think that's it for me, JJ. You have anything?
56:31Yeah. We have one more question. If we want to just get to it.
56:35Okay. Uh, this is from, uh, Ari who says I'm late on this, but I don't really understand how market score is different than rankings.
56:42You can talk about a guy whose ADP is 30 and say you should be ranked at 40 or say he has minus one point.
56:50Yeah, it's, it's, it's not, but this is a metric that's showing that right.
56:54Like rankings themselves are just a subjective way of people putting something like that together.
56:59And projections are different because projections are not factoring in what the wisdom of the crowds is saying.
57:04I think the cool thing about market score is that it's anchored to what the market is saying and what ADP is
57:10saying, what the wisdom of the crowds is saying.
57:13Yes, you should follow my rankings before you blindly follow market score.
57:17But it's a tool for us to look at and say, oh, this is something that's completely objective.
57:22That's completely pulling in these metrics that are predictive.
57:25And it's saying, maybe we should lean into this guy a little bit more.
57:29Maybe we should fade this guy a little bit more.
57:32That's all it is. The tool, right? We're not using market score to rank players.
57:36This is exactly why I didn't want market score to be a point per game projection.
57:41I didn't want it to be list as points per game.
57:45I wanted it to be versus zero where zero is average because that way people can intuitively know, oh, this is, this is based on the market.
57:53It's not a projection of that player, et cetera.
57:55So hopefully that clears things up. He said, cool.
57:58Gotcha. That makes sense. Wanted to make sure I was understanding the idea.
58:02Yeah. I mean, like, it's just another tool. It's not, it's not the thing, you know, it's not the only thing I'm
58:08going to be looking at because we have this really cool, you know, formula that, that can spit this out.
58:14It's just another, another metric that I think can guide us in the right direction.
58:19J. Well, it says, uh, can't wait for my first draft guide, July 1st, right?
58:23It is around the 1st of July. We don't want to set up like a hard, fast date because the season starts later.
58:30We've had this rollout. It's going to be probably sometime in that week though.
58:34Yeah. I don't want to give, we'll have a date soon enough.
58:38Uh, I have some trips that are planned here in June that were on for some of the more unforeseen, um, that
58:45I, you know, had to do like my, my daughter's dance stuff.
58:48My gosh, kids. You got to foresee that now.
58:51I mean, that's part of, it's part of the dance deadline.
58:54Like, you know, just stuff like that, that I, uh, and I, I don't want to rush the draft guide too much.
59:01I mean, I've been working on it every night, so I work during the day, do the content stuff.
59:06And then at night after everyone's in bed, basically that's when I like kind of grind out an hour or two of, of the guide.
59:14Um, and so it's just a lot of work and I don't want to commit to something and not being able to hit that deadline.
59:21So more than likely July 1st, at least that week around that time, I'd, I'd like to get it out before the
59:284th of July, but you guys will know the exact release date soon enough.
59:32Okay. I mean, I mentioned it in the newsletter, but, um, JJ and I have just talked, you guys are awesome.
59:38Everyone's awesome. That has been like so understanding of us as we launched this encouraging, as we launched this new website.
59:45So appreciate you. Even, even when I'm doing customer service emails at 1230, I can't complain.
59:49I can't, but it's like, it's like someone who is like, you know, ripped and jacked and just naturally muscular, you know, complaining about something.
59:57You're talking about yourself there though. Yeah, exactly. Right.
60:00Exactly. You can't complain about anything. You got a great job.
60:03Right. You got the, you got the naturally looked like you just got out of the gym physique, you know?
60:09Gosh, the boss is just incredibly understanding and generous.
60:11So, I mean, got it all going on. Why did I send sarcasm in their kitchen?
60:16Huh? It wasn't sarcasm at all. Just kidding. You are awesome.
60:20You are generous. Give me this job. That's why I can't complain.
60:23So, we appreciate you all. We love you all.
60:26And we'll see you next time here on the Late Round Fantasy Football Show sponsored by DraftKings.
60:31This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.
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