Late-Round Perspectives: Davis Mattek Returns
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 4 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 5, 2026
Published
Fri, June 5, 2026
14
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
D.J. MooreChris ThompsonJake FergusonJaylen WarrenJustin HerbertKeaton MitchellKenneth GainwellKenyon SadiqLuther BurdenMalik WillisNyheim HinesTyler WarrenXavier Worthy
Player analysis
Player insights
Chris Thompson
PositiveUsage0:27
Chris Thompson is referenced as a former ideal zero RB candidate, highlighting the shift in the NFL away from pass-catching running backs.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeBust0:57
DJ Moore is considered the worst priced player on the board, with concerns about his production and connection with Josh Allen.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:59
DJ Moore has the potential to improvise and score touchdowns, but his route running is not as nuanced, which may affect his overall performance.
Insight pageJake Ferguson
PositiveRole0:41
Jake Ferguson is expected to be drafted and could be a viable tight end option, leading to more teams starting two tight ends in fantasy leagues.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveValue0:54
Jalen Warren is highly underrated and fits well as a flex starter, with impressive efficiency metrics in yards per route run.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveProjection1:01
Justin Herbert is projected to throw for 5,000 yards this season, potentially becoming the first quarterback to reach that mark since 2021.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
PositiveValue0:54
Keaton Mitchell is available in the 12th or 13th round and is a great fit with Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveValue0:40
Kenneth Gainwell might be a 12th or 13th round pick in home league drafts, but his value is uncertain due to the emergence of Bucky Irving.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
PositiveProjection0:33
Kenyon Sadiq is compared to Noah Fant and Evan Ingram, indicating that while he may not be a top-tier tight end, he could still provide solid production.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveValue0:55
Luther Burden is viewed as a top value wide receiver, potentially being a second-round pick in a more optimistic fantasy landscape.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveSleeper0:51
Malik Willis is considered a strong late-round quarterback pick due to his rushing upside, potentially being as prolific as Lamar Jackson.
Insight pageNyheim Hines
NegativeUsage0:09
The role of players like Nyheim Hines has diminished in the modern NFL, as teams are opting for larger backs who primarily block instead of catch passes.
Insight pageTyler Warren
NegativeBust1:00
Tyler Warren is facing a tough situation as he will now share the field with one of the best targets per route run players, and his quarterback situation is concerning.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
PositiveValue0:56
Xavier Worthy is gaining traction as a value pick in drafts due to the Kansas City offense's need for pass catchers.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is Tab Ramos from Inside American Soccer, and this summer Topgolf is turning into the ultimate soccer destination.
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0:51You can save money without missing out on the features you need.
0:55Check out Odoo at odoo.com. That's odoo.com. David Kitchen is a fantasy analyst who co-hosts the Swolecast, does work for Flock Fantasy,
1:01and has his own YouTube channel at Davis underscore Maddock.
1:04He's a dad, a skateboarder, a fan of many teams, and he's probably drafted more best ball lineups than you have this year.
1:11These are his late round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by DraftKings.
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1:42The crown is yours. David Kitchen. You dug it up?
1:45I don't think that the world has heard all of the drops in the way that we used to communicate back in the day.
1:53No, there's a whole generation of people who play fantasy football who don't even know who Doran Dickerson is, JJ.
1:58Oh, wait, wait. You mean, okay. Actually, before I do this, I have to preface.
2:03Okay. So you and I have known each other for like 13, 14 years.
2:07I mean, it's been a minute. Long time. Yeah.
2:10And early on when you came onto the scene, you were the sports wunderkind, right?
2:14You were. You were. That was literally the name of my blog.
2:18Yeah. Quite literally. 16 years old or something, like analyzing fantasy football.
2:21And it's kind of stuck in a way. I do want to ask you about that, actually.
2:26Like, do you feel like that you've been stuck as like fantasy football's little brother in a way?
2:32Like, and does it bother you if you feel that way?
2:35It doesn't bother me. God. It just is what it is.
2:38I'm comfortable with it. But it is very funny that I'm a 33 year old man who owns a home and has a child.
2:45And like, if I called Drew Dinkmeyer, the way Drew would think of me is as of like a high school student
2:52asking for like, who's like trying to finish a project and like needs an answer from his dad.
2:57It's true. Because like you, you, I mean, like in my mind, it's similar.
3:01Like, but, but are like, you're only like five years younger than me.
3:05It's not even like, it's just that I started doing this professionally at a really young stage of my life when I was like irresponsible.
3:13Like I was in college, like I had roommates and the generation of fantasy guys ahead of me, they had kind of all just passed that.
3:20They were all, they were all married. They were all, they like it's so even though we're not that far apart in
3:27actual years, it's where we were in our lives and we all met each other.
3:31Right. Cause I had started like after college, I was already like, I was early in terms of settling in with my wife and such.
3:39Cause we had started dating when we were 19, you know?
3:42So it was just like that kind of like vibe for sure.
3:45But when you came onto the scene, so like you and I connected and like we did shows and stuff and you know, we were friends.
3:53We got to meet each other in like San Francisco back in the day at one of the, one of the conferences
4:00and whatnot, where you famously wore the bucket hat with the tie dye t-shirt.
4:04And the weed socks. Yeah. And the weed socks.
4:06I had to wear my, I had to wear everything I had.
4:10So I always would poke fun at you that your voice sounded like it was auto tuned.
4:15That there was, that there was this like, this, this piece of your voice that sounded like you were, you were editing it in some way.
4:23Clearly you're not. I mean, I've, I mean, you've now done literal thousands of shows and like we've been together and talked
4:29to you and hung out with you plenty. But in doing that, like in, in coming to that like conclusion, and this
4:36is like, you know, 2014 ish timeframe or whatever, where like, AI wasn't a thing.
4:40We're editing audio and whatnot. And so like I was editing all of my own audio for like living the stream.
4:46And I started messing around in garage band. And that's where I'm like, oh, I can auto tune stuff and I can sound like Davis.
4:54So for instance, on Davis's birthday, I sent him.
4:57Happy birthday, Davis Maddox. Isn't that wild? I mean, that's, that's such a, that is such a time portal.
5:02That is incredible. But yeah, I, I have always, people always have opinions on my voice.
5:07It's, it's not a, it's not a standard white guy voice.
5:10Interesting. Like still to this day. Still to this day.
5:13Yeah. Interesting. Well, you were, you were mentioning the Doran Dickerson thing.
5:17I mean, I, I'm a pit alum. So I know Doran Dickerson more, more, more intimately if you will.
5:22But you were, you were, this is, this is back in the road of his days when the big thing back then
5:29was like the big athletic wide receivers. Right. And so I wasn't even prospecting at this point.
5:34You were doing pro you've always done kind of like prospecting work and dynasty work and whatnot.
5:39And this is when Doran Dickerson was coming out.
5:42This is the last, this is the last drop.
5:44I promise the final drop. Bro. Homeboy. Doran Dickerson is the man.
5:48Have you seen his 40 times? This was before this was before Rass even existed or, or, or Kent had the big site.
5:55I mean, he would have been the 10 Rass guy.
5:58He would have been 10, 0, 0. Yeah, he was, he was definitely.
6:01Now he's a, he's a Pittsburgh like sports radio guy.
6:04Like he's, he's like pretty big in sports media and stuff in, in, in Pittsburgh.
6:09I hope he still, I hope he works out all the time.
6:12I hope he's still absolutely jacked. Still has the, the athletic profile, but look, it's good to have you on.
6:18It's good to talk ball as usual. Uh, we, we've kind of introduced you and your career and like what you've been
6:25doing, but I like to do this with, I mean, technically you're a new perspectives guest.
6:30I don't think you've done perspectives yet, but you've done.
6:32I think I did all like the first year you did this.
6:36Oh, did you do it? I, I, I think, I think so.
6:40I, I don't, I, or, or maybe no, no, I think I became on a, I came on an episode of becoming a best ball.
6:47Yeah. I know you've done best ball, bro. Yeah.
6:50Yes. Uh, but just let everyone know like where it started and where you're at and the kind of analyst you are
6:56so that we can sort of like place you and then understand the perspective that you're coming from with the questions I'm going to ask you.
7:04Um, so I started, I got my first job doing sports content on the internet, writing for some guy's blog when I was 18.
7:11So when I was 18, that would have been 2010.
7:14Some random guy like some, I, it was it.
7:17It honest to God, this is a true story.
7:19It is my grandmother was just searching. Craig's list job postings and was like, this guy was looking for sports writers on his blog.
7:26And she's like, Davis would be perfect for this.
7:29He never shuts up. So he needs more outlets to do it that, that, that to the best of my memory, that is how it happened.
7:37And so I do that and I was playing, I mean, I played fantasy football since I was neat, you know, six years old or whatever.
7:44Cause my dad was big into it. Um, I don't remember exactly how David kitchen found me, but David kitchen found my
7:51Twitter profile and was like, Hey, do you want to do some unpaid labor for me for fantasy sports dot org?
7:57And I was like, would love to, would love to soccer Dave to do some unpaid labor.
8:02Um, and then basically, I honestly shout out to David kitchen.
8:05Cause it probably none of it ever would have happened without him.
8:09Uh, the COO of late round industries. Uh, and then, yeah, so I, I worked for Dave for fantasy sports dot Oregon fantasy insiders.
8:16Then, uh, David ran that business into the ground and I got it.
8:20I got a job. I, I worked for a B2B DFS provider.
8:24So their idea for this company was we are going to build a DFS product for all the casinos and sports books in Europe.
8:31Cause everyone in Europe is hip to gambling. It's very funny how their culture works compared to here, but they don't do fantasy sports at all there.
8:39So their idea was we'll just get, we'll just sell these sports books and these casinos at DFS product and see if people like it.
8:46No one liked it. So I got downsized from there.
8:49Then I got hired at daily Roto, uh, by drew Dinkmeyer and Michael Leone.
8:53They left to found ETR. Mm-hmm. And then I got, uh, so then daily Roto shuttered, but they were owned by a larger company that does TV.
9:01And so then I did TV, uh, sports TV for like three years down here in my basement.
9:06Then that company folded and now I'm self-employed. A great, crazy journey.
9:10Great. But the, the, the one through line is that a lot of these companies are folding.
9:15Turns, turns out that if you are not one of the absolute biggest companies in sports, it's, I mean, I was about to say it's 50, 50.
9:23If you survive, I'd say it's about 20, 80, you survive.
9:26Uh, and, and it's very, it's very, very, it's very, very difficult to do.
9:30And you either have to have a super bare bones operation.
9:34Like people might think of like a lot of these sites they subscribe to is like, dude, there are so many, like, this is crazy.
9:41It's like, no, they, they have like 11 employees, you know?
9:44Yeah. Like, uh, like it's, it's tougher than you think.
9:47Yeah, no, it's a good point. And I, I, you know, I was obviously joking with you being a, being a, a
9:54reason for, for any of that happening. It's, it's more like, I didn't help, but it's, it's more so like, I do
10:00think that people don't realize like how many, even like you going through that story, I was going through like some random
10:07companies that like we would work with, but not for.
10:10And then they just call like, remember Fannieum? So many.
10:13So, I mean, I have, I have so many experiences with companies that have reached out to me and I've been like, yeah.
10:20Yeah. And it just, it came to my head and I'm like, oh my gosh, I forgot that this company exists.
10:26All the DFS sites that came and went like all of the, and, and it's, I mean, you're still standing number one, which is amazing.
10:33And, and, and like, but this is what you've known for your career, right?
10:37Like this is never, never had an office job.
10:40Never, never had to wear a, my, my last real job where I had to go to a physical location was I
10:47delivered Domino's pizzas in, in college until I was 20.
10:50And then, well, frankly, the, the, and this, no one is going to believe this, but DFS used to be so easy
10:56that really I was making way more money playing DFS than I was from soccer, Dave's company or whatever.
11:02I was, I was able to support myself playing DFS for a long time.
11:06Um, until the games got really hard and now, now, now could, could definitely not do that.
11:11Yeah. Now we're best ball bros. Now we're best ball bros where, where you can just lose every entry and you say, it's just variance.
11:18Dude, it's only been eight slates. It's only been eight slates, dude.
11:22Come on. What do you own to my magician?
11:25Come on. Right. Right. And so like from a process standpoint and like evaluation standpoint, where are you at now these days
11:31from like a data versus film perspective? Uh, I mean all, all data pretty much.
11:35So, so I guess another interregnum in there is that when Rotovis was starting, when it was Bales, John Moore, fantasy and,
11:42um, John, did I say John Moore? Uh, so I was, I was like the third person to ever have a published
11:49article on Rotovis, uh, back in the day. So I, and that's, that's basically how I learned about fantasy football is I
11:55read, uh, I read fantasy his book. I read all the Bales's books and I was like, yeah, this, this makes a
12:02ton of sense on how to, so it's pretty proud to say like, I don't know, 95% data, 5% vibes.
12:07Yeah. I mean, look, you did the, the slot model this, this off season.
12:12Some, some are saying that I I'm going to send you a cease and desist for the, for the name of the, uh, of the prospect model.
12:20Um, I mean, you, you definitely should, uh, because it's just work.
12:23I mean, it works too well. The zap model slot model, although I have a, my, I don't, what's the zap acronym?
12:30Zachary's an adjusted prospect. That's really good. Mine is statistical likelihood of achieving production.
12:34Um, but yes, it is, it is nothing but a derivative, uh, knockoff with, with I'm sure, uh, many, many of the same inputs.
12:41I mean, something you want to know a real wool from the eyes thing is I've realized as, uh, everyone learns how
12:47to use chat CPT and stuff is that most prospect models are actually quite bad because there's too much data.
12:53It's overfitted. It's, it's quite bad. You, you start adding more things in.
12:57And if you were really testing it rigorously, it, your computer will tell you, this does not make any sense.
13:03You should not include this. Was that a big finding for you?
13:07Cause like, was this the first, so just to, just to be clear to everybody, Davis built the slap model this off season, the prospecting model.
13:14And in doing so, I mean, you, you leaned on AI, right?
13:18I know that. And, and, and I used, yes, cloud, it was all cloud code.
13:22Yeah. And so in doing that though, like, was that the biggest reveal for you and finding.
13:27A hundred, a hundred percent biggest reveal was I'd be like, okay.
13:31Cause I, cause what I did, uh, in any of you guys out there can replicate this for not much money.
13:37And it'll probably take you a lot of time if you're not native to the coding, like I was.
13:43So it took me a long time, but you know, I downloaded every NFL play from the last 20 years.
13:49I downloaded every college football game for the last 15 years.
13:52I downloaded every combine measurement metric, whatever, honestly, like even more data.
13:56And I was like, so I collate all these together.
13:59So it's all tied to one player. And then I was like, okay, so what I started doing, and I don't even know if this is right.
14:07I'm sure a mathematician could start telling me all the errors I'm making.
14:10But the thing that I did was I wanted to back test based off of what guys did in the NFL, not like forward tests.
14:18So it would be like, look at what Jameer Gibbs and every other running back has in common, put their, you know,
14:24first year fantasy scores, second year fantasy scores, third year fantasy scores, year one through three, uh, you know, likelihood of finishing
14:31running back one, likelihood of finishing running back two for all the positions.
14:35And then start to correlate that backwards with the college stuff.
14:38So like did weight matter? Did 40 time matter?
14:41And I'm sure you obviously know this, like draft capital is number one, far and away, not close.
14:46It's at everything. It beats it. I found very, very small correlations with weight, uh, for, for running backs and for wide receivers.
14:53Interestingly enough, RAS for tight ends had a, like a pretty strong positive correlation did not at all a wide receiver and
14:59running back because not because it isn't good to have a good RAS, but because it's completely accounted for in draft capital.
15:06That's what I've kind of concluded as well through the years is that I do think that athleticism obviously matters to a
15:12degree, but teams just over, I mean, there's a negative correlation with teams overvalue it.
15:17Right. Because teams, teams are like, okay, I think, and I think what it is is teams are like, yeah, this guy
15:23kind of sucked in college, but like, imagine him with our coaches.
15:27Yeah. Imagine him, imagine him, imagine, uh, imagine Dante Thornton with Pete Carroll, dude, we are going to unlock this guy is
15:33I, is I think it's the hubris of the NFL front office, but you know, I found the same things you found receiving yards per team pass attempt.
15:42Um, there's some extra stuff that you have in the zap model that I was not able to, to suss out cause
15:48I think, cause we were just doing things differently.
15:51Like I was not able to find good, uh, rushing.
15:54Like I have like a very, very small component of it is rushing, but it's, it really just as, um, a binary,
16:00like a yes, no, like did this guy have good rushing production?
16:04Did this guy not? And then it's like a really small bump.
16:07You mentioned, uh, I know that we're getting a little nerdy here, but I think it's interesting because you're coming at this
16:14from a perspective of like newly modeling things. Right.
16:17And I'm, I've been doing this, like I've been iterating this app model now for like six years or so.
16:23And so I think it's interesting because others have hit me up so many times asking about like where to start, how
16:29to do it, et cetera, et cetera. But I do think that what you're bringing up is so, so important about the number of inputs in a model.
16:37Oftentimes less is more because you start to overfit when you have way too many inputs and you know, you start to make these assumptions about.
16:45You got to be the next Puka Nakua in order to be a day three hit at wide receiver without realizing that
16:52that's just a one-off and it's okay. If your model didn't love him the way that it would love a second round
16:58wide receiver or something like that, because that's just the way that, you know, it naturally sort of occurs and works.
17:04And then on top of that, like I've learned over the last like year or two where last year I really stripped things back, especially at running back.
17:13You know, I think that you had mentioned that, that, you know, I know that you just did too, but like receiving
17:19is so important at running back for, for these things, right?
17:22Like where draft capital seems to capture enough at the, with, with rushing metrics, in my opinion, and the receiving metrics are
17:29really where, you know, running backs can, can differentiate themselves.
17:32But the one thing that I did this year that I think should be helpful is like, I do, I don't want
17:38to get so simplistic that there's not a backstop for some guys, you know, like, like there, there could be one metric
17:45that the guy just really sucks at. And if there's not a backup for that metric in some way, then all of
17:51a sudden the, the model is just missing that guy completely.
17:55Even if it's not improving correlation at all, if it's, if it's more neutral than anything else, it's also nice to just
18:01have that other metric to make sure that, you know, if a guy's a really bad, you know, adjusted receiving yards per
18:08team pass attempt, but he's pretty good in total yards per team play or something like that.
18:13And the model's only, you know, marginally better. Even that marginal difference in help can, can be helpful with like not missing
18:19on that one player is what I found. I completely agree.
18:22Cause that's what I did at tight end was I, I literally added in just raw receptions, just literally raw, not, not percentage.
18:29Just like literally like basically like a yes, no, is this guy receiving tight end?
18:34And it improved the results like massively. Yeah. So with you building that, were there any rookies that you found yourself higher
18:40on this year than, than the market? Well, it's so interesting.
18:44Cause this guy don't even really like now, which is Emma Johnson.
18:47Cause he can't, he was so small to 202 pounds.
18:50Yeah. Um, frankly, guys I expected to like, who I didn't like demon clay born, like too small and not like a great rushing profile.
18:57But part of that is also like, I, and I'm sure you experienced this many times is, is just kind of knowing.
19:04So this is what the model says, but inside of that, there's just this whole world of range of outcomes for these
19:10guys and kind of like what career paths can look like for certain archetypes of players.
19:15So like demon clay born actually is one of my favorite examples where I'm like, yeah, the modeling stuff doesn't love him.
19:22But given that kind of like smaller, super fast kick returner style of guy, those guys generally are not going to have
19:28like great, like long careers, but they're super lightning in a bottle where like for two years.
19:33They scored like 14 and a half fantasy points per game because the situation was just right for them.
19:39Jaden blue is, is a really interesting one. We're like, that guy sucks, but he's in this situation.
19:44Where he's got a 26 year old running back with a degenerative knee condition ahead of him.
19:49The team signed no one else at backup running back.
19:52And I'm like, he was really bad last year, but like, you can imagine what would happen if he wasn't that bad.
19:59But he actually, I should say he didn't get a chance to prove if he's in a good or bad.
20:05And then, and then the game against the giants, he looked, he looked like he was playing at a different speed than Javante Williams was all season.
20:13So maybe he doesn't suck. Yeah. I mean, does that model actually like Jaden blue, which is why I didn't mind him last year.
20:20And, you know, I think people thought that it was like me jumping on this bandwagon of like, just, just placing this
20:26player onto the Cowboys and therefore he'll be good.
20:29And it's like, no, he was like young, had good receiving production.
20:33Like he was not a bad prospect for, in my opinion.
20:36And so, you know, obviously we didn't get anything out of them, but I think it's a good point.
20:41You know, that, you know, I think that you're using the slap model similarly as I zap where it's like, I want
20:48this thing to guide me more than anything else.
20:51I want to make sure that I'm not getting too high or too low on these players based on what I know
20:57objectively the model saying, as opposed to it's just really easy, man, to like fall in love with a prospect and start to think irrationally about that guy.
21:05And then do that over and over and over again for dozens of prospects.
21:10And then all of a sudden you're sitting there just, just not having like cohesive thoughts about these dudes where it's just,
21:16it's just, you're drafting them because you need to draft them because you've created this narrative about the player.
21:22But I do think that these models just allow you to be a little bit more grounded with, with reality in a
21:28way, you know, and like group think doesn't take over the same way that it would otherwise take over.
21:34But was, was, was Emmett Johnson like the dude that you were surprised you were higher on?
21:39Like, were you higher on him post-draft too? Is that, is that in total?
21:43Like, did you get him in rookie drafts and such?
21:46No, I mean, honestly, like if someone kind of ended up always liking him a little bit more, a couple, a couple surprising results.
21:53Jordan Tyson was the number one wide receiver for me, even with draft capital plugged in there.
21:58Dijon Stribling was like the worst second round pick of all time.
22:02According to, according to the thing that I built and Stowers ahead of Sadiq, even, even with the, even with the, the
22:08draft capital difference because Sadiq's, Sadiq's production was even adjusted for context.
22:12Raw, what I just got awful. Just like the most, like this guy was a backup tight end at Penn State ass production of all time.
22:19Like, like, you know, I believe what is he was sixth on the ducks in receiving yards, his final season in Oregon.
22:26Just like not, not good. No, no. I mean, like, I get it.
22:30Like, it's not, it certainly is like, isn't great production.
22:33My, my thing with Sadiq is I, I wonder what it would be like if Kenyon Sadiq had gone back to school this, this next year.
22:40And I know they have another tight end that would be better than him.
22:45Yeah. Yeah. Right. That would, that's potential first round pick.
22:48But if Sadiq goes back to college this year, let's just pretend like, do we, would you anticipate him like having a good season?
22:55Yeah, for sure. For sure. I'm not, I'm not overly penalizing him.
22:58I'm not killing him. And like my actual rankings, I had him ahead because 17 is big.
23:03And I think that the data probably does not tell the whole story with a guy like that.
23:09Another thing that's just very tough about modeling right now.
23:12I'm curious your thoughts on this is the NIL stuff for the guys at the premier schools is kind of messing everything
23:18up because your teammates are like, oh, dude, the crazy 2017 Bama team.
23:22Now every good team is like that. Now Ohio state and Alabama and Florida and Oregon and, and all the, they have,
23:28not only do they have all the five-star recruits that they already have, but anyone who was good at Val Basta state
23:35university is now getting paid $250,000 to transfer to that school.
23:38Like the wide receiver seven on Ohio state might be an NFL caliber player.
23:42No, I mean, that part's very fair. And it's, it's one part that I didn't investigate like that deeply on when I
23:49did, I did an episode on like NIL and such and like how it's impacting things.
23:54The one thing that I found is that it's really not mattering when you focus on the things that matter for us
24:00in fantasy football, which is like top 100 picks, right?
24:03Like the, like day three picks really don't matter for us at the end of the day.
24:08Like they're, they're, they do, but they don't, you know, like, like, of course we're throwing darts.
24:13They're on our benches and dynasty and we're hoping for the best.
24:17And some of them are going to hit, but very rarely are they going to hit consistently.
24:22What I found was that, yes, we have fewer early declares and that's, you know, obviously there's some signal with like early
24:28declare status and such, but realistically we don't have fewer early declares that then get drafted high.
24:33It's that a lot of the early declares that we're missing are more day three picks.
24:38Like a lot of the guys that are going top 100.
24:41Yes. We're going to get a little bit more like 23, 24 year old players at the moment.
24:47You know, I think it's going to come down a little bit with the COVID stuff, like coming to an end, right?
24:53With that extra year of eligibility. But realistically, like the top 100 players are not that different, like demographically than they were 10 years ago.
25:01Like not, not tremendously different, but I do think that the teammates stuff could be interesting because of what you just noted
25:07and how like things are just so top heavy, you know, at this point with, with the college football landscape.
25:13And teammate score is a really, really difficult thing to calculate in general.
25:17So it could be that like, that took me, that took me a long time because of Jalen Waddle.
25:22I finally, I finally figured it out. But like, I was like, why is, why does my shit just think Jalen Waddle sucks?
25:29Yeah. And I, well, first off, I had a bug that was not calculating per game stuff properly because it was saying
25:36like Jalen Waddle had like a 12% dominator ring because he only played five, five or six games his final season.
25:42So that was a bug I had to fix.
25:45And then the teammate score was another big thing that I had to figure out.
25:49Teammate, teammate score is a very, not only that, but teammate score is really difficult because it's hard to project the future.
25:56The Jeremiah Smiths, right? Like how do you properly factor Carnell Tate playing with him?
26:00You know, it's, I, I, uh, I just, uh, I, I just fudge that.
26:04I literally just said, I just said, treat Jeremiah Smith, like the fifth overall pick in the next year's draft.
26:10I literally just said, do that. You can, I mean, there's probably some way in some database out there that at least
26:17gives you some rough projection for some of these guys that you could, you could throw in there.
26:22But I haven't done any of the future stuff.
26:25So I always say just like, yeah, take it with a grain of salt.
26:29Like Carnell Tate should probably have a higher teammate score than he does.
26:33You know, he is getting credit for like a Mecca Buka and such, but like it's, it's, uh, it's certainly an inexact science.
26:40Who are, who are the rookies that you were lower on versus consensus then?
26:44Still lower than consensus on stripling. Kalen Black, even with the, even with the draft capital boost and like the stuff I
26:50will class, like this guy's like a UDFA, like even still.
26:53He's 24 and a half years old. That was a big thing for me for, for the model at least.
26:59Yeah. Katron Allen was lower, was lower on, on Katron Allen.
27:03Um, I'm trying to think of some of the other wide.
27:06Oh, Surratt. Surratt, uh, was, uh, was, was a little bit lower, um, in mine.
27:10Yeah. Interesting. I don't, I don't remember exactly what contributed to that.
27:14I run Kobe lane too. Really? Okay. So you're okay.
27:17So the, the Surratt and lane thing is interesting because a lot of these models, like mine likes Surratt more than lane
27:23from the standpoint, not like with, with draft capital, it technically had lane ahead.
27:27But, but when you get that low in the draft and such, like it's, it's kind of like a choose your own
27:34adventure, like go with your favorite, uh, at that point.
27:37Cause it's just not substantially different from a investment standpoint.
27:40But Surratt to me and to a lot of people had like a pretty, like, like all encompassing, like pretty good production profile in general.
27:47And like the, the gradual increase is it, is it a early to Claire thing for Jacoby lane?
27:53You think it's, it's early to Claire. And I also gave him teammate score credit for the way that I built it
27:59was I gave him teammate credit score for Zachariah branch, who is his teammate as a freshman.
28:04And there was another NFL player on that USC team.
28:07Lemon, obviously. Yeah. Well, and outproduced lemon, by the way, when they were like, lemon did not play when they were true freshmen and Jacoby lane, uh, did.
28:15Um, so I, I think, I think, and, and it's, by the way, it's very possible that the way that I have.
28:22Stitch together, all this teammate score stuff is not good.
28:25And that it's too, it's too, maybe not good.
28:28Like the way it tests is fine, but it's too involved.
28:31And I'm actually not gaining any signal from it.
28:34It's very, it's very, very possible to Kobe lane sucks.
28:37And I shouldn't have calculated. I mean, I, I, I think that everyone stemming from this discussion, especially should be trying to
28:43build something if they're interested in it. Like period.
28:46Like there's so many tools to be able to do this thing.
28:49And I also love when you go out, like you Davis, you go out and you build that.
28:55And then you're like, Oh, some of this stuff or like a lot of this stuff is stuff that like is in
29:01the zap model, which makes me feel good about what has already, what I developed for the zap model.
29:07You know what I mean? Like I feel more confident than that.
29:10The inputs, the metrics and stuff are, you know, significant.
29:13If you know, other people are, it's like, it's the scientific method, right?
29:17Like, like if someone's repeating something that you did to a degree, you know, you're obviously measuring certain things.
29:23Like it's a slightly different thing than we're measuring, but if someone's repeating that thing and getting similar results, that's good.
29:29That's like, that makes me feel good about what is being produced as opposed to the opposite.
29:34So. Well, yes, you, you wouldn't want, you wouldn't want the data that you found to have signal to have someone else
29:40use the same data and then find that it was not falsifiable.
29:44That would actually be quite bad. Yeah. Right. Right.
29:47Yeah. Which, which I think is the advantage that you get with data in general, right?
29:51Like it's, it's a lot more difficult to, it's a lot easier to piggyback off of each other with data because it's,
29:58it's just easy to like, it's not a, you know, obviously it's great to have a math background and to understand what the modeling is actually doing.
30:06But I'm talking about just like the individual statistics.
30:09If someone says that, you know, is reputable or that you think is smart or whatever the case may be, and they
30:15say, Hey, this metric matters for this. Then you can literally just say, okay, I'm going to start to leverage that metric.
30:22Whereas if you're watching film, it's going to be a lot more difficult to do that.
30:26You have to like sit down and learn that thing in more detail.
30:30But with, with modeling and with data, you can at least like continue to build a little bit more easily.
30:36In my opinion, both methods are fine. I'm not starting that war.
30:40That's not what this is about. But I do think that's a benefit to modeling with prospecting and such.
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31:40Visit wellsfargo.com slash active cash. Terms apply. Let's move on to 2026.
31:43Because you've been, you are, you are, are, how many, how many best ball drafts are you up to at this point?
31:50I mean, over a thousand. You're trying to draft more teams than anyone else on the planet this year, yes?
31:56I am trying to. I won't because Sacrilegious and Shady will draft more than me.
32:00But other than those two, I'll be, I'll be, I'll be number three with the bullet.
32:05How about this? I'll be the only person with a humanities degree who drafted over 3,000 fantasy football teams.
32:11There we go. All right. So when you look at 2026 drafts, do you think there's anything substantially different about this year versus last year?
32:18That could be best ball related. But let's also focus on like home leagues, redraft season long leagues.
32:23Yeah. I mean, what do you think would change year over year?
32:27Running backs are at like peak pricing almost. Like I'm not like, not like 2008 pricing or whatever, where literally the whole
32:33first round would be running backs or whatever. But in terms of like what we've learned about fantasy football, like with a
32:40modern scientific bent, this is like running backs could not be more expensive and still hue closely to anything we've actually learned
32:47about fantasy football in the last 10 years. And there's a discount on the really, really good fantasy football tight ends because
32:53they weren't very good last year because people are scared.
32:56You know, Bowers is a second round pick. McBride is a third round pick.
33:00Loveland is a fourth or fifth round pick. Like these guys are huge advantage creators.
33:05The thing, and I'm sure you found this in your research, which is that you start looking into the elite tight end
33:11data and it can get skewed so poorly by like Gronk rolling his ankle in the wrong week or Kelsey having a
33:18bad season or whatever, because the elite tight ends are so few and far between that the data is so small and wonky.
33:24Yeah. It's like when you're prospecting tight ends, right?
33:27Like there's, there's only, there's only like six good tight ends from the last 10 years, 15 years.
33:32So like when you're prospecting them and you're trying to model for this stuff, you know, like I've been saying it, you
33:39know, Ken's Kenyan Sadiq, it's a Noah Fant comp as, as one of his comp, like everyone had that comp, but it
33:45is a very good analytical comp and people freak out and they're like, Oh, Kenyan Sadiq's going to suck.
33:51There's no way he's going to hit. And it's like, guys, Noah Fant or like Evan Ingram's a better example.
33:57Cause that was another comp for Sadiq. And it's like, an Evan Ingram outcome for Kenyan Sadiq is actually good.
34:03Like this is actually a good, because tight end just doesn't have high end production.
34:07Like you're not going to get Brock Bowers comps.
34:10It's just not a thing that's going to happen, you know?
34:13And so, yeah, I noticed that a little bit too.
34:16I want to talk about the running back thing because a lot of times the answer is to zig while everyone zags.
34:23And that would mean going more zero RB this year.
34:26Do you think that is viable slash smart? Or do you think the meta is kind of on point with like a,
34:32with like a running back, running back start, and then just kind of build out your wide receivers, maybe get a tight
34:39end early on instead of one of those wide receivers or running backs.
34:43But, you know, generally speaking, getting multiple running backs in the first few rounds.
34:47I think it will ultimately be pretty tough to do because the profiles of the running backs, we used to really like
34:53to draft as sleepers, like five years ago, by shell toot and would have been a 13th round pick.
34:59Now he's a fifth round pick or RJ Harvey.
35:02What if they take Jonah Coleman, they re-sign Dobbins.
35:04He would have been like, Oh, he, Oh, he went undrafted in my league with my buddies or whatever.
35:10And now he's a, an eighth round pick. Um, and also it's, it's, it's sort of, you're making a big bet that,
35:16you know, McCaffrey and Barkley and Henry kind of all hit the cliff at once.
35:21Like, Hey, if those three guys all hit the cliff this year, there are going to be a lot of people who
35:27are like, who could have seen it coming? You know, impossible, but dude, I, those guys, like, first off, Derek Henry is like beyond the danger zone.
35:35Derek Henry is in like, uh, that guy could retire tomorrow.
35:39And I'd be like, yeah, dude, he's 33. Like it's, I don't, I don't, you know, but honestly, and it's such a results based thing that we do.
35:47Like people determine if your strategy was good or not based on if it worked, but you, you would have had a
35:53real hard time telling me two years ago that, uh, three of the top 15 players in fantasy football were all 30 year old running backs.
36:01I'd been like, no chance, dude. Everyone would not lose their minds like that.
36:05And it turns out we're there. It is kind of interesting because if you, I did a lot of the research on
36:12like the changing landscape of, of these offenses, you know, going heavier personnel and why like wide receiver twos in particular are so flat.
36:19Like if you do rankings weekly, it was like, okay, there's eight guys that we like that are going to put up
36:25really good, you know, the JS ends of the world that are going to put, really good numbers up.
36:31But then there's this, there's this giant cliff. And then there's like 30 dudes who are all doing the same thing in the wide receiver to arrange, right?
36:39Like better, that are just giving you like fine production, but there's not that much that's differentiating them from one player to the next.
36:46And one of the, the two things have happened at the same time, right?
36:51Wide receiver to production has died as running back production has increased.
36:54So it's, we've seen both things really impact. Yeah.
36:57And I'm, but I'm trying to also get to like the, you know, thinking back to 2015 to 2017, 18, when zero
37:03RB was pretty viable, like, like really not a bad way to approach things.
37:07And it made a lot of sense. And, you know, I'm not saying that it was the optimal strategy, but it was
37:14a strategy that you could deploy and, and find more success.
37:17And I think you can right now. And I think part of that though, is also the way that teams are deploying
37:24these backs and how you would have like, remember Chris Thompson, right?
37:27Like, Oh boy, do I, he was, he was like the go-to type zero RB player where in a full PPR format,
37:34you could get by legitimately with a random RB to a week from a pass catching running back like that.
37:40Right. Where like that pass catching back would give you 14 PPR points in a given week at times.
37:45And you'd be like, all right, that's sweet. That's fine.
37:48He'll catch seven random passes towards the end of a game and you'll, you'll be good to go.
37:54But with the way that the NFL has shifted back into this heavy personnel, you are seeing, we are seeing more targets
38:00go to tight ends and fewer targets go to running backs.
38:03And I'm wondering, you know, this kind of goes back to the demand Clayborne example, because I think Clayborne fits that mold
38:10of like what a Chris Thompson used to be, but does that work in today's game quite the same way?
38:16And does that hurt what goes on with zero RB?
38:19You know what I mean? Like, cause, cause zero RB to me is not just about injuries.
38:24You know, it's not only about that side. It's also just about like having some sort of replaceable asset early on in
38:30the season as the, fragile nature of the fragile nature of the position starts to come to fruition and occur.
38:36And these injuries happen. And you know, that backup running backs are better than backup wide receivers who get hurt, et cetera, et cetera.
38:43And so do you think that that's also playing a role in the way that like zero, or do you have a
38:50take on it of zero RB, maybe not being as optimal anymore because of the shift to like 12, 13, you know, run heavier schemes.
38:57And that just benefiting simply rushing running backs instead of really benefiting the receiving backs, which is where the cheat code comes in fantasy football.
39:05A hundred percent, a hundred percent. Yes. The, the death of, of the Nyheim Hines type.
39:09Cause something, something I've noticed is a lot, a lot of teams have been doing is the, the Nyheim Hines, the Chris
39:16Thompson, that guy's been phased out for a guy who weighs 230 pounds.
39:20And a lot of times those guys are actually just out there to block like Smosh P Ryan is just out there to block.
39:27I mean, the, the chargers really good example of this.
39:30They just gave up on playing Amari and Hampton on passing downs and brought up 300 pound Tucker Fisk and said, Hey, keep, keep Justin upright.
39:38Right. And so if past catching backs are not out there to actually catch passes on passing downs, those are really what's
39:44kind of happened in the modern game is those tertiary targets have started to go to second tight ends.
39:50Now has been, has been the big change, which is bad for fantasy.
39:54Yeah. I mean, I don't think people realize that like back in the day we could look at round 14 and get
40:00like a running back that had 50 catch upside, like, like actual 50 catch upside, you know?
40:05And you kind of like, you know, you can squint and be like, well, what about Kenneth gain?
40:11Well, or something like, but it's like, that's happening on top of the market getting sharper, you know?
40:16Like, like, like maybe the data doesn't bear it out completely when you look at like ADP versus postseason result.
40:22But in terms of like really pinpointing who that potential pass catcher might be or who that player might be, I do
40:28think that the market is just, I mean, maybe it's best ball only and it won't show up in that way.
40:35And in a, in a home league, but you know, maybe Kenneth gain well is really a 12th round pick when we
40:41get to our 13th round pick when we get to, uh, you know, our home league drafts and such, uh, in August.
40:48But I mean, probably won't just because of the way that things are trending with Bucky Irving right now, but regardless, like,
40:54I do think that like that is sort of an untold story of what's going on in fantasy football at the moment.
41:01And then you have tight ends benefiting. Like you said, are you right now, like in drafts, like, do you envision there
41:07being more teams that have like legitimately two viable tight end options?
41:11Like, do you think that Michael Mayer or, you know, two Rams tight ends are going to be viable in like a season long format?
41:18I do. I do think that we will see more tight ends started in flex in your home league than, than ever.
41:25I think there will be a team in your league that drafted Jake Ferguson and then picks up whoever off the waivers in week three.
41:32And then they go to look at the projections of their favorite projection provider.
41:36And they're like, Terrence Ferguson projects for more points than Jalen Coker.
41:40Why, why would I start Jalen Coker? You know?
41:42Yeah. I think that's going to be, I think that's going to be huge this year that, that, well, that's my guess.
41:49If all the things that teams are saying about the 12 and the 13 person, I mean, we've got Mike McCarthy, who
41:55was one of the Kings of 11 personnel. Like I'd rather die than not play 11 personnel talking about 12 personnel for your Pittsburgh sealer.
42:03So if it's that pervasive, then yeah, I really do think that'll be the case.
42:07Do you think, okay. So you, you brought this up.
42:10So I'll ask you like, like, do you think that this is trendy?
42:14And obviously this is, this has been going on for like a few years now.
42:18Like it's not, you know, I've, I've talked about it a little bit before this past season.
42:24I know rich rebar has done a lot of work on it, uh, you know, over the last couple of years and such.
42:30The thing that I think though, is like the reason why it's coming out the way that it is in analysis right now.
42:37So frequently with heavier personnel and such, because there was a pretty dramatic shift year over year this past year, it was trending in this way.
42:45And then in 2025 things like really, I think a lot of it is probably like, like also narrative base where you're
42:51like, Sean McVay is the one that's leading the charge.
42:54Like the Ram. Yes. If it was Arthur Smith doing it, we'd be like, yeah, who cares?
42:59Yeah. But then meanwhile, I'm sitting here and I'm like, Arthur Smith kind of sharp.
43:04Like he kind of was doing a lot of this stuff before it became.
43:08Remember, remember Kyle Pitts and Jonah Smith, baby. Arthur Smith had it first.
43:12The problem, the problem with Arthur Smith though, is that he was being way too democratic, if you will, with his individual
43:18player use and not really maximizing the, the, the talent that he had on his team.
43:23But I think the idea behind what he was doing is probably not wrong.
43:27But my, like, do you think that this will be a, just a little blip or is this like a years to come kind of thing?
43:35No, no, this is, this is blippy as hell, dude.
43:38And I'll tell you, I'll tell you the most obvious reason why this is blippy as hell.
43:43How many of your favorite teams out there, dear, dear listener, how many of your favorite teams?
43:48Yeah. You know, you're a, I'm a big Falcons fan.
43:51I'm a big, I'm a big Jags fan. You really want your second tight end.
43:55You really want Nate Bo Richter to have 40 catches because that's what this requires.
44:00This requires an organizational and philosophical commitment that if you are going to play 12 personnel, you have to show the defense.
44:06We will throw to this guy. We will, we'll do it.
44:10So I, I, I think that that's right from the standpoint of like, I look at Jacksonville in particular.
44:15Okay. And, and Gladstone comes out after the draft and he goes, you know, he's like, oh yeah, this is basically saying like, this is the meta, right?
44:23This is what teams are doing. So we're drafting these tight ends.
44:27But then you look at their personnel and you're like, but why would they, like, it feels like they might try to force it to start the season.
44:35And then they're like, wait a second, Parker Washington's only playing 60% of the snaps.
44:40Like, what are we doing here? You know, like, why, why aren't we getting these wider?
44:45If the Steelers in particular did this, it would be one of the dumbest.
44:49Like play calling to say, Liam Cohen's got to be smarter than that, dude.
44:53I mean, you, of course, of course. But I'm, what I'm saying though, is that I think teams like that, that are
44:59built like that are going to force the issue a bit and try to do what they think is proper and right.
45:06But I've been saying all off season that I think that the benefit in doing this is, is what Sean McVay and the Rams did.
45:13And that is having very versatile tight ends that are able to do a lot in line up all over the formation
45:20so that you can react to what defenses are giving you at the line and not simply just say, oh, we're going to.
45:27We're going to power, power this through and just beat you through sheer force.
45:31Like there's, there's so much X's and O's going on from these like very high level thinkers of football going to McVay
45:37as, as the example that, you know, they're, they're obviously doing this in reaction to both too high, right?
45:43Defensively, but then also smaller. I mean, you have smaller defenses now in terms of like, just wait, like you have, you
45:49have, uh, you have just smaller players that you will be able to.
45:53You have to run against more easily than you would in 1995, right?
45:57Where it was just a completely different game. And so I think defenses won't be able to necessarily react in the next
46:04like year because they have to rebuild. They have to do things to try to react to what all of these teams that are doing heavy are doing.
46:12But to your point, offenses are going to have a hard time because how do you force the issue with these like
46:18fourth tier tight ends versus a legitimate wide receiver starter?
46:21A hundred percent. And, and it's always, it's always a give and a take, right?
46:26The NFL goes in waves. Teams start to construct their teams differently.
46:29And that like, actually a great example of this, uh, is kind of happening in basketball, right?
46:34Oh dude, play five wings, play, play Kevin Durant as your center.
46:38You know, Draymond, Draymond is your center. We got to get smaller.
46:42We got to have, we got to have five out spacing.
46:45You know, the big hack this year in the NBA was offensive rebounding teams were like, you know, what's actually great.
46:51Uh, instead of making everyone just make all these shots, the, the Houston Rockets before Steven Adams got injured, were rebounding 24% of their own misses.
46:59Like they were like, you, you were just generating extra possessions.
47:02And that's just an example of how you, you, you start to zig when the zag and I don't even, you know, I'm not smart enough about real.
47:10Yeah. To know exactly what, I don't, I don't exactly know what the zig is.
47:15I have some ideas. I have some thoughts. Funnily enough, I actually did a thread last year early on about 12 personnel
47:21where I was like, this is an obvious solve to the, to this problem because you can run out of it.
47:27And if your second tight end isn't Noah Gray, you can throw out of it.
47:32So some team, I mean, the Steelers actually threw great at a 12 personnel.
47:36They were, they were awesome. Uh, and, and, but I mean, one obvious drawback I can think about of, of playing 12
47:43is that you can't, you can't really run vertical stuff much out of that.
47:47So it's still pretty easy to keep eight guys in the box and still feel fine defending the pass.
47:52Yeah. That's just the first thing I thought of.
47:55I mean, I think from our perspective as fans too, we got to hope that teams have to be more honest with
48:01what's going on up at the line. And allowing then these two high looks to not happen as frequently because it hurts the game.
48:09If we're being real, you know, like the fact that these big plays aren't going to be able to happen and, and,
48:15uh, you know, come together as frequently as they did before.
48:18But I think it's a really interesting conversation because on one hand, I agree from a personnel standpoint that it makes no
48:25sense to use some of these second, third tight ends in place of some very legitimate pass catching wide receivers.
48:31You know, like there are some teams out there.
48:33I think Jacksonville is just like the easiest example or Pittsburgh is another one.
48:38Like you said, where it's like, why would you force that when you have the wide receiver rooms that you do like
48:44get, get more creative with their use as opposed to forcing the issue of, of having two or three tight ends on the field.
48:51But then on the, on the flip side, that's what defenses are also giving.
48:55And it's going to be hard for defenses to like truly just like flip some switch and just like all of a
49:02sudden have a defense that can defend this flawlessly, you know?
49:05So it's going to be a really interesting thing to watch and it's going to affect fantasy football, uh, in a lot of different ways.
49:13This is Jacob Goldstein from what's your problem. Business software is expensive.
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49:47Wasn't that delicious? So good. Your bill, ladies? I got it.
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50:04Rock, paper, scissors, shoot. No! Wow! The Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card.
50:07Visit wellsfargo.com slash activecash. Terms apply. All right. I want to ask you about the quarterback position in fantasy.
50:13We had a few years where early round quarterbacking was pretty strong.
50:17And then last year happened where it really was not the best strategy in the world.
50:21I mean, we had a lot of late round hits and scoring in general was down at the quarterback position, which really helped as well.
50:29Do you think that it's clear this year to go late round quarterback?
50:33And then who are your favorite later round darts?
50:35I think the middle round. I think it's mid-round quarterback.
50:38Kind of the same as it ever was. The quarterback window.
50:41You got Herbert with McDaniels. You have Mahomes pricing.
50:44It's completely nonsensical. It's just based on right now, I guess, the fact that people thought he was going to be injured.
50:51Purdy. I mean, Purdy has just put together a great resume of just being a quarterback one in fantasy and is available
50:57in the 10th round of drafts right now. And, you know, I'm the only fantasy analyst that is brave enough to say this.
51:04Everyone else is just like cowering in the shadows.
51:07But Malik Willis is a better bet than Trey Lance was.
51:10Well, actually, not as good of a bet as Trey Lance was, but a better bet than year two Anthony Richardson was.
51:16A better bet than any of the Justin Fields non-Bears years.
51:20So any year Fields was not a bear. We all knew it was so close.
51:24Like he was that close to getting benched. Malik Willis, he would have to be really, really bad to be performance benched.
51:31Not saying it can't happen. But he'd have to be, he would have to be worse than Fields was probably.
51:37But even in like, in like regular, non-best ball, regular season long as Malik Willis is not the easiest slam dunk late round pick imaginable.
51:44Probably, probably the easiest pick in a redraft format on the board currently.
51:48Yeah. Right. Right. Because if he doesn't work out, he doesn't work out.
51:52But you're going to like, I genuinely believe that Malik Willis has a chance to be just as prolific as a rusher as like almost Lamar.
51:59Like he's that good on the ground that from like a fantasy accumulation and point standpoint, you know, I'm not saying that
52:06he's going to be as good as Lamar Jackson.
52:09Cause I think, I mean, Lamar's underrated in general, I think, I think still somehow, but as a rusher, like a pure
52:15runner, there's so much upside with Malik Willis. That I don't understand, you know, like I was looking at ADP data.
52:21Cause I'm doing the quarterback section of the guide right now.
52:25And, uh, there's some, like, I think, uh, fantasy pros ADP had Malik Willis, like QB 21 or something where I just,
52:31I mean, give me him over basically any pocket passer and QB two range, you know, just give me, give me over, over golf over staffer.
52:39Or yeah, just give me, give me Malik Willis.
52:41Yeah. So, uh, that that's, that's an easy, any other, any other late round darts?
52:46Like, are you into, let's just consider, let's look at this from a season long lens, not best ball where best ball
52:52is a little bit sharper right now, but like Tyler Shuck, Cam Ward, are you into those guys?
52:58Uh, I am in a Tyler Shuck. I, I probably would not draft Cam Ward in any redraft format right now at quarterback.
53:04Um, trying to think like true late round. I mean, most of the, most of the rest of them, like Mendoza ran
53:11a little bit in college and he's a big guy.
53:14So like, maybe he's like a week four waiver.
53:17I mean, cousins will probably start the first couple of games of the season for them.
53:21But, uh, yeah, I would, I mean, I would just say like, it's, you know, the Malik Willis thing is so, and
53:28it, you know, rushing has been priced at such a premium at the quarterback position for so long that it's, it's strange
53:34to see Willis be going so cheap. And I also think like, what would it take for him to be ranked higher?
53:41Like, do they need, is it, is it because of the, the, is it because the ambiguity?
53:46Probably a lot of it, but is it also because of the weapons and what they have working there?
53:52Like what's more important? You know what I mean?
53:54Like what, what is the thing that's pushing him down that people are just like, there's no way, or, you know, I'm
54:01just not going to go after this, but I don't know.
54:04I'm willing to take a chance because in your, in the worst case scenario in 95% of leagues, you can still stream a low end QB one.
54:12You know, it's still a very, very reasonable thing to do.
54:15Um, all right, let's, let's, let's real quick. Top two values right now at running back and wide receiver.
54:21Uh, top two running top two values at running back.
54:24Keaton Mitchell available as like a 12th, 13th round pick.
54:27And, uh, I'll actually give Jalen Warren. Jalen Warren is, is he fits great on a team that needs a flex starter.
54:33Uh, if you want to try and do the hero RB or zero running back thing, you can slot him in pretty comfortably.
54:40I think as a, as a running back to, uh, I mean, you know, Rico Dowdle is what he is, but I don't, I actually think gain.
54:48Well, probably a little bit better. And I think it's sort of interesting that the market just is assuming that the running
54:55back production will be split equally between those two guys.
54:58It's not like Rico had got it. I think he got one year, $5 million with some incentives, I believe was his contract.
55:04So it's not like a, it's making less money than Tyler Algier, for example.
55:09The one thing I'll say, Jalen Warren is just unbelievably underrated as a player too.
55:13Just really good. Yeah. If you look, if you look like middle round running back done so much research on this about
55:20yards per out run with like middle round running backs and such.
55:23Jalen Warren is like 75th to 90th percentile in yards per out run every single year, uh, at the position.
55:29Like he's just a really good player. And then I like the, the Keaton Mitchell call out as well.
55:35Just a great fit with Mike McDaniel. Who are, who are some of the wide receivers?
55:39Uh, Luther Burden would be the number one value wide receiver.
55:43He, he really kind of in a, in a more optimistic era, like 2024 fantasy football, when, when optimism reigned supreme before
55:49we'd all been beaten to death by Javante Williams, he probably would have been a second round pick.
55:55Like very similar to like how Drake London was a second round pick before he ever actually did anything.
56:00We would have done the same thing with Luther Burden and, uh, you know, I'll give the people what they want.
56:06Xavier worthy wide receiver 50, uh, for the first time in Xavier worthy's career, the math based drafters are in on Xavier
56:13worthy because you just look at the Kansas city office.
56:16You're like, ball gotta go somewhere, man. It's probably so, you know, one, one of the guys is in jail with a knee infection.
56:23And, uh, one of them, one of them is hosting community, uh, fundraiser barbecues with coach Reed.
56:28And, uh, you know, one, one of them's expensive and one of them's cheap.
56:32And you can at least like create the narrative that he was hurt last year.
56:37I mean, they came out and said it, he, he played with a torn labrum and, and Reed said, we had, we
56:43had to change this whole route tree up. Cause we didn't, we didn't want him doing a bunch of stuff.
56:49Yeah. Yeah. When, when he went out and said that, like, that's one of the few coach speak things that I've actually
56:56like kind of taken and, and, and utilize this, this off season so far was the, the fact that like, he recognized
57:02that things were different for Xavier worthy last year.
57:05I think that's, that's, uh, meaningful to some degree.
57:07All right. Give me a fade at the four positions.
57:10Fade at the quarterback position. I mean, Josh Allen needs to like the opportunity cost is so expensive.
57:16He's now eased into like on all the major sites into the twenties.
57:20I can't, I can't do it. I'm such a coward at running back.
57:23I'm really not. You know, here Deandre Swift doesn't really have anything to do with him.
57:28It's just like all the young, exciting guys go next to him.
57:32Yeah. It's like, do I want Deandre Swift or do I want Trevion Anderson?
57:36Do I want Deandre Swift or do I want Byshell too?
57:39And it's like, okay, well, do I want chicken and rice or do I want a Jersey Mike's?
57:44Right. You know, it's like, I know it's good for me, but you know, I don't really want chicken and rice tonight.
57:51So I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna eat my chicken and rice wide receiver.
57:55This one is super easy. I don't even have to think about it.
57:59DJ more worst, worst price player on the boards.
58:02Josh Allen, this is anytime someone starts coming at me for DJ more.
58:05I, this is my favorite stat. In 2025, Josh Allen had two games with 50 fantasy points, depending on your fantasy point
58:12provider, but two games of 50 fantasy points. Do you, do you happen to know the highest score of one of his teammates in those games?
58:20Like wide receivers? Yes. I think Cook had a really good game in one of them.
58:24Yeah. But yeah, pass catchers. Oh, well, since you're bringing it up, it's probably low.
58:29But if I, if I were to be reasonable about it and like have no preconceived like idea of what you were
58:35going for here, I would say that, that he'd probably have like an 18 to 22 pointer in there or something like that.
58:42Shakir had a 19 pointer in one of them.
58:45In one of them, no one had over 80 yards receiving.
58:48Yeah. It's just the, the offense is not about DJ more.
58:51Even if I thought DJ more was as good as I thought he was four years ago, which I don't, I still
58:58probably would think it's kind of crazy pricing. But now that I think and have evidence that DJ more stinks, he was
59:04going to get cut by the bears. And then the bills for some reason gave a second round pick for him.
59:11I don't know. I don't know. The one thing I'll say about more too, I've mentioned this on the show a couple
59:17of weeks ago, but it's kind of crazy that people are making the Stefan digs connection with, you know, when digs went
59:24to Buffalo and how big that was for digs.
59:26When digs was coming off a season with like a 2.7 yards per out run rate and DJ more has been below 1.5 for two straight seasons.
59:34You know, like he's, he's not been very good.
59:37I have a hard time ranking more just to be clear.
59:40I'm probably not as, as on that side as you, but I'm definitely more on the avoid side than the target side
59:47right now, because it is, it's, it's, it's a, it's a projection.
59:50The one thing that's keeping me on to more is I do think that his like, uh, you know, uh, when things break down ability can be there.
59:59And, and, cause he's not like a nuanced route runner the way that, that, and that kind of works with Josh Allen,
60:05just given the way that Allen plays. And so maybe that really works.
60:09Like, don't get me wrong, man. DJ more once upon a time had a bunch of game.
60:14Could he like improvise his way into 10 touchdowns?
60:17I mean, sure. Right. But like, that's the one thing that's keeping me like, uh, but yes, I'm with you.
60:23Like, especially cause it's in a range where there's so many good wide receivers being dropped.
60:27Exactly. It's like every wide receiver. I'm like, well, that guy could have a career year.
60:32And then I'm like, TJ more. Right. Do you have a tight end?
60:36Tight end. I'm fading. I mean, again, it's don't really want it.
60:39This is more of a harder fade, but Tyler Warren, I feel like there is a huge bear case here that is
60:46like totally underrepresented, which is he's about to now share the field for about 80% of his routes with like one of
60:52the best targets per route run players in the NFL and Josh Downs.
60:56And he used to share about 40% of his routes with that guy and his quarterback who sucks tore his Achilles.
61:03I know he said he'd like Daniel Jones son run for eight games last year and the Colts were really good.
61:09But now his quarterback, like if you, if that was Josh, if that was Daniel Jones is a game, he's probably going
61:15to be playing a C game coming back from this.
61:18And everyone's had, there's been a year of film on what the Shane Steich and Daniel Jones offense is going to look like.
61:25Like, uh, and, and I'm totally prepared to be wrong about this one.
61:29Cause Tyler Warren is quite good. He also could score a bunch of one yard touchdowns, which is, uh, kind of, but
61:35I, he, he, cause you have to take Tyler Warren over like Jordan Tyson over Brian Thomas jr.
61:41Over all the quarterbacks. He's in the quarterback kind of window.
61:44You got to take him like over like Drake, man.
61:47Like, I don't know, man. Tyler Warren's tough one.
61:50All right, man. Before I let you go. One hot take for the season.
61:54One hot take for the season. I'm actually going to go very off brand here.
61:58No, like this will be, this will be the most off brand I can get.
62:03JJ Justin Herbert throws for 5,000 yards. He'll be the first 5,000 yard pass.
62:07Who was the last one? I mean, it's been a lot.
62:10It's been since 2021, I believe. Uh, yeah. Five, 5,000 passing yards from Justin Herbert.
62:15McDaniel schemes him up a bunch of, a bunch of crud, uh, that I'm going to hate.
62:20I'm going to hate every second of it, but there you go.
62:23Love it. All right, man. Let everyone know where they can find you, your channel, what you're working on, all that good stuff.
62:30Yeah, you can find, you can find all of my videos, uh, on YouTube.
62:34If you just search my name, I have three channels.
62:37So it's, if you like redraft, I have one for that.
62:40If you like dynasty, I have one for that.
62:43If I feel like best buy one for that.
62:46Uh, and then all of my rankings, all of my, all my stuff is over on flock fantasy.com.
62:51You can ask me trade questions, starts it's sweet team reviews, all that stuff over there.
62:56Awesome. Make sure you guys are checking out late round.com pre-order that draft guide.
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