The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast artwork

Late-Round Perspectives: Bob Harris Returns

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 5 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 18, 2026
Published
Fri, September 18, 2026
40
Player insights
31
Players mentioned
Topics
David MontgomeryChristian McCaffreyChuba HubbardD'Andre SwiftDerrick HenryJeremiyah LoveJonathon BrooksMarvin Harrison Jr.Austin EkelerBreece HallBucky IrvingDrake LondonIsaac GuerendoIsaiah Likely
Player analysis

Player insights

40

Austin Ekeler

PositiveRole0:16

JJ Zachariason notes that Austin Ekeler is a highly knowledgeable and accessible individual who genuinely cares about the game, a trait that has been consistent throughout his career.

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Breece Hall

PositiveUsage13:25

Bob Harris notes that Breece Hall received the expected workload in Week 1 and suggests his usage could increase further this year through added receptions.

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Bucky Irving

NegativeRole56:30

Bucky Irving is viewed as a player who will have huge games based on matchups and circumstances, though David Montgomery is considered the more consistent play. JJ Zachariason ranks Irving behind Jeremiah Love but notes Irving and Montgomery are very close in rest-of-season value.

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Christian McCaffrey

PositiveUsage12:10

Bob Harris highlights Christian McCaffrey as a reliable feature back whose role is generally consistent, despite the inherent volatility of the NFL.

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PositiveProjection30:43

Bob Harris views Christian McCaffrey as a league-winning player and believes his week one performance was an anomaly, expecting his role to return to form.

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Chuba Hubbard

PositiveRole21:37

Bob Harris notes that Chuba Hubbard has established himself as the lead back in Carolina, with a 'violent' running style that the coaching staff clearly favors.

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NegativeValue59:06

JJ Zachariason and Bob Harris agree that Chuba Hubbard is a sell candidate. There is ongoing concern that Jonathan Brooks will eventually dig into Hubbard's workload.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveRole14:02

Bob Harris notes that D'Andre Swift secured a featured role in Week 1, which was a satisfying outcome for those who drafted him.

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PositiveProjection60:24

JJ Zachariason is a big believer in Deandre Swift, noting his potential for increased receiving volume similar to his 70-target season in Detroit. Despite a touchdown-reliant performance in week one, Zachariason believes there is room for more production.

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David Montgomery

PositiveRole12:51

Bob Harris includes David Montgomery in the group of reliable feature backs for this season, noting that he has potential for RB1 weeks and will benefit from red zone opportunities.

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PositiveRole57:17

David Montgomery is preferred over Bucky Irving for his week-to-week consistency. While Jeremiah Love is considered a higher-tier talent, JJ Zachariason leans toward Montgomery for now until roles for Love normalize.

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PositiveValue83:37

David Montgomery is considered a solid RB2 with RB1 upside due to his goal-line role and the Lions' offensive philosophy. Both analysts prefer him over Travis Etienne due to concerns regarding the Jaguars' run-blocking and Etienne's lack of goal-line power.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveRole17:24

Bob Harris notes that Derrick Henry continues to defy odds, maintaining high speed and a featured role at 250 pounds.

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NegativeProjection31:55

Bob Harris notes that he was never out on Derrick Henry and suggests that those who were fading him will likely be worried now.

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Drake London

NegativeUsage78:36

Drake London's fantasy value is heavily dependent on Michael Penix Jr. returning to the lineup. JJ Zachariason notes that London's production with Penix is "night and day" compared to without him, making him a volume-based play only when Penix is active.

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Isaac Guerendo

PositiveRole28:29

JJ Zachariason and Bob Harris discuss Isaac Guerendo, noting that his investment looks fine and he performed well in Week 1, fitting the Shanahan scheme.

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Isaiah Likely

PositiveRole67:13

Isaiah Likely is a high-confidence play who is expected to be the second-leading receiver for the Ravens. JJ Zachariason and Bob Harris both rank him ahead of Harold Fannin and Dallas Goedert rest-of-season, noting his high slot usage and strong connection with the quarterback.

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J.K. Dobbins

PositiveRole62:32

JJ Zachariason remains high on JK Dobbins, viewing him as the lead piece in the Los Angeles backfield and expecting the team to run the ball better moving forward.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveRole12:51

Bob Harris identifies Jahmyr Gibbs as part of the group of running backs who are securing the featured roles that fantasy managers want.

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Jalen Coker

PositiveValue64:03

JJ Zachariason and Bob Harris both rank Jalen Coker ahead of Courtland Sutton rest-of-season. Coker has been a vital part of the Panthers' offense, averaging 16 points per game over his last eight games including the playoffs, and is viewed as a better play than Chris Godwin.

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Javonte Williams

PositiveUsage15:09

Bob Harris highlights that Javonte Williams had one of the best receiving games of his career in Week 1.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveValue62:18

JJ Zachariason identifies Jalen Waddle as an aggressive buy candidate if other managers are willing to give up on him after a slow start.

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Jeremiyah Love

NegativeUsage45:35

Bob Harris acknowledges Jeremiah Love's talent but warns that the team will likely utilize a committee approach, making him a potentially frustrating fantasy asset despite his high draft price.

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PositiveBreakout57:27

Jeremiah Love is described as being on a different level compared to David Montgomery. JJ Zachariason ranks Love ahead of Irving and Montgomery in his rest-of-season outlook, though he notes the situation is close and depends on roster construction.

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Jonathon Brooks

NegativeRole20:31

Bob Harris expresses concern regarding Jonathan Brooks' immediate role due to Chuba Hubbard's emergence, but remains optimistic about his long-term potential as a well-rounded, explosive back.

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PositiveProjection30:14

Despite a slow start in week one, Bob Harris remains confident in Brooks' outlook, stating he does not expect his season to be a disaster.

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Jordan Mason

NegativeInjury32:02

Bob Harris is now worried about Jordan Mason due to a thumb injury that will cause him to miss a month, effectively ending his momentum after he had been positioned to leapfrog Aaron Jones.

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Kendrick Bourne

NegativeUsage40:38

JJ Zachariason warns that Kendrick Bourne's week one involvement is unlikely to be consistent, and his presence in 11 personnel could limit the overall ceiling for other Arizona pass catchers.

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Kenneth Gainwell

PositiveUsage30:40

Bob Harris maintains that Kenneth Gainwell will continue to see significant playing time and usage throughout the season.

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Ladd McConkey

PositiveUsage35:32

The Chargers' offense performed significantly better when Ladd McConkey was active, and his departure from the game coincided with the team's offensive collapse.

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Marvin Harrison Jr.

NegativeProjection41:52

JJ Zachariason and Bob Harris express concern over Marvin Harrison Jr.'s low target share in week one, with Harris noting he has moved Michael Wilson ahead of him in his rest-of-season rankings.

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NegativeBust66:54

Bob Harris is extremely low on Marvin Harrison Jr. following his performance, stating he is "dead to me" in comparison to Jalen Coker.

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Matthew Golden

PositiveBreakout63:11

JJ Zachariason is extremely bullish on Matthew Golden, noting his week one expected PPR points were second only to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Zachariason ranks him as a high-end WR3 or WR2 rest-of-season, citing beat writer reports that he will lead the Packers in receptions.

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Michael Wilson

PositiveBreakout44:19

Bob Harris highlights Michael Wilson as a key target, comparing his role to Puka Nacua's and noting his strong chemistry with Jacoby Brissett, leading him to rank Wilson ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.

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Parker Washington

PositiveBreakout73:24

Parker Washington is viewed as a high-end WR2 (ranked 14th rest-of-season) by JJ Zachariason. His usage in week one confirmed his role in a heavy-personnel Jacksonville offense, and he is preferred over Garrett Wilson and Drake London rest-of-season.

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Quentin Johnston

PositiveSleeper62:44

JJ Zachariason suggests picking up Quentin Johnston if he is dropped in fantasy leagues, indicating interest in his potential role in the Los Angeles offense.

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Quinshon Judkins

NegativeUsage33:35

JJ Zachariason expresses concern regarding Quinchon Judkins' usage, noting that Raheem Sanders saw a 40% snap share in the second half of their recent game, which poses a significant problem for Judkins' fantasy outlook.

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Trey McBride

NegativeUsage40:20

JJ Zachariason notes that Trey McBride saw a very high target share in week one, but expresses skepticism about whether this volume will be sustainable given potential game-script and defensive factors.

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Tyler Warren

PositiveProjection70:42

JJ Zachariason and Bob Harris both prefer Tyler Warren over Isaiah Likely rest-of-season, though they acknowledge it is a close decision. Warren's outlook is tied to the potential of the Colts' offense returning to the efficiency levels seen when Daniel Jones was healthy last year.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveRole17:58

Bob Harris notes that the Ravens' offensive scheme, directed by Todd Monken, is effectively utilizing Zay Flowers for big games.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

854
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Bob Harris is an analyst at Football Guys and host at SiriusXM Fantasy.
0:05He previously did work for well over two decades with football diehards.
0:09He's a Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Famer, he's my Peloton buddy, and he's just one of the best people in the fantasy football industry.
0:16These are his Late-Round Perspectives. I interviewed Austin Eckler for the show last week for Perspectives.
0:20And there's, you know, like I had never talked to him before, you know, it was the first time chatting and stuff like that.
0:26And there's a sense of like, it's not uneasiness, it's just the anxiety of you wanting to make sure that things go
0:32a certain way or that you say the right things or that you can you connect in some way, right?
0:37Right. There's something just so nice about a Perspectives Week, when it's a friend, when it's someone I've done plenty of shows
0:43with that I talk to, you know, and that's you, Mr.
0:46Harris. I'm very excited to have this, to do this show.
0:49I always enjoy the invite. And by the way, Austin Eckler was all over the Fantasy Nation thing in Vegas couple weeks
0:55ago, interviewing people, doing interviews, super accessible, super nice, super knowledgeable, really great guy.
0:59It was a really good event. You know, I hope they grow it and make it better.
1:03But, but Austin Eckler was a highlight for pretty much everyone.
1:06And I think, I think he felt the same about all of us.
1:10Yeah, it's one of the, it's, you know, it's rare where like, it's not in, because sometimes you get athletes and you
1:16get like celebrities and such that are like, you know, they're just kind of going through the motions because they're trying to
1:22push something or get something out there. He genuinely cares.
1:24You know, I talked about it to him a little bit afterwards and stuff like he genuinely cares.
1:29Like you can tell that he genuinely cares. I think that's a really, really important part to all of that.
1:35And he understands the game. I think that's always been the fascinating part to me of going back to, you know, the
1:40early 2000s when, you know, we were doing the fantasy sports publications magazines.
1:44We really started getting into the player interviews and leaning into them.
1:47And some of these guys were like, really got it.
1:50Like Larry Johnson. I can remember just going, man, this fantasy football is what makes a Raiders fans, a Larry Johnson fan,
1:56you know, and so, and, and he got it.
1:58And others did too. Sean Alexander, Priest Holmes thought, man, maybe after I'm done playing, I could, I could get into this.
2:04And LaDainian and Tomlinson, of course, totally understood what we were all about and still does.
2:08It's just always good getting that connection with people who kind of get what we're doing.
2:13Not all of them did. Jake Plummer would like you to know among others, but, but yeah, that was always interesting to
2:18see how they viewed us, you know, knowing how we view that.
2:22Yeah. I got to ask you, have you gotten your Peloton right in today?
2:25I have not yet today. It's going to be a nighttime thing.
2:29I'm starting to, I'm starting to drift into the evenings more.
2:32The late night schedule on work is kind of keeping me from the early morning ride.
2:36So, but I will not miss as you know.
2:38Yeah, I know. Oh, I see. I see you on there all the time, man.
2:42You're crushing it, crushing it. All right. Let's get into just straight into some of the stuff that's been going on in the fantasy football world.
2:49As we, you know, we're now done with one week.
2:52We kind of learned a little bit, but probably think that we learned more than we actually did because it's usually how this stuff goes.
2:59So we're in this weird spot where we want to react, but we don't want to overreact.
3:03So my question to you to kick things off is what are you looking for early on in the season, whether it
3:09be week one, week two, to sort of help that balance of, of being reactive, but not reacting too much and going
3:15crazy because you drafted a lot of Jalen Waddle and he was horrible in week one.
3:19Right. That's the biggest battle, right? And I mean, you'll see these people fever dropping all kinds of players.
3:24Week one, be right. First, watch your waiver wire, see who's getting dropped because people will do the craziest, most unexpected things.
3:30I think that the things that I noticed in week one was the scoring.
3:34It was great. Sunday's games averaged 50, what? 53.3 points.
3:37Crazy. It was off the chart. Monday night came up a little short with 41 points, but six games on Sunday saw at least 60 combined points.
3:44And one of them set a new bar. Thank you, Bears.
3:47Thank you, Panthers. 96 points. Highest scoring week one game in NFL history.
3:50So it appears the offenses are ahead of the defenses.
3:53So again, week one is a big fat liar.
3:55We all know this, right? Like we are going to see things that don't persist, but some of the things that I,
4:01you know, and I try to remind my audience that all the time is, is, you know, September is the new August, right?
4:07There's, there's, you know, we're playing a game based on a game that's designed to be volatile, to have variants, to have unexpected outcomes.
4:14It's not a bug. That's a feature. That's the desired outcome for the NFL.
4:18And, you know, you have to mentally deal with the fact that every, you know, the best, your, your great process, making
4:23the best decisions is not going to lead to the best outcomes every week.
4:27It's just not how this works. And so once you realize this and like, look, we want to have control and I
4:33want to say we have control, but it's like a NASCAR driver.
4:36The minute that car starts spinning, you'll hear them all say the same thing.
4:40Well, at that point, I'm just a passenger, right?
4:42Once the kickoff happens, we're just passengers. We've made our decisions.
4:45We've made logical choices. We've looked at all the numbers.
4:48We've reviewed everything we can, but we're not calling plays.
4:51We're not throwing passes. We're not blocking for anybody.
4:53We're not taping ankles or our control ends. And we just have to sit back and watch.
4:58And I think that's one of the frustrating and exhilarating things about this, about this game.
5:02Yeah. I think that the, the point about how much scoring there was in week one, I actually took a step back
5:08and I was, I was texting a couple of folks in the industry.
5:11I have a text thread with our main event team that we had drafted.
5:15It's me, Silva, Davis, Matic, Pat Thorman, and Rich Rebar.
5:18So the five of us, you know, we do a main event team every year together.
5:22And then we have a text thread where we're just texting about, you know, life, fantasy football, et cetera.
5:27And we were all texting about the high scoring nature of week one.
5:31And then I started thinking about it. Cause I didn't really, you know, I'm like, yeah, cool.
5:35It was a high scoring week one. That's fun.
5:38But I actually, I took a step back and I thought about the idea that I like when this happened, when there's
5:44more usable pieces in fantasy football more because when, you know, like last year, even year before that, whatever, you know, when,
5:49when you get quarterback injuries or you get these different offenses that are maybe leaning a bit, a little bit more run
5:55heavy, whatever the case may be, you get more inefficiency on offense and you only get, let's say five to eight, like
6:01legitimate, legitimate game breaking players in fantasy football. It makes the game less interesting, right?
6:05Yes. Because, because I mean, look, when you're doing weekly rankings last year, I remember when I was doing the weekly rankings
6:11last year, I would get to wide receiver and I'm like, these guys, after the eighth wide receiver, everyone sucks.
6:16It's the same guy over and over again, you know?
6:19And so like, I'm hoping that this sticks to some degree more so than what we had maybe the last couple of
6:25years, because now it's not just, Oh, you won your fantasy championship.
6:28Did you have B. John Robinson or not? Okay.
6:31You didn't. Okay. You didn't win, you know, or, or you didn't have Chris McCaffrey last year, whatever the case may be.
6:37I just think it's better for the game in general.
6:39When you get more of these offenses doing these things, we just have to hope that, you know, if the bears drop
6:45another 59 burger, it's not Khalif Raymond with the, with the 30 plus target share.
6:49And we get guys. Yeah, exactly. The donut did not taste good.
6:52No, that did not, did not at all. So I guess leading into that, you know, we just did months and months
6:58of prep, you know, getting into this season. What do you think was the most surprising revelation in week one?
7:04The most surprising or most satisfying because I've been banking on it, but it's the, it's back to the feature, JJ, the
7:10feature back, the true feature running backs. You know, like, look, there was a period where the zero running back strategies and hero running back strategy made sense.
7:17We saw more people drafting, doubling up on running backs in the first two rounds or certainly in the first three rounds.
7:23And it paid off. You look at the guys that are getting, you know, the carries we want.
7:28Like, again, we go back to the variance and volatility.
7:30What are the things that I, that I can control?
7:33Well, I can't actually control it, but I can count on certain volume or at least certain anticipated volumes.
7:38Christian Caffrey would like you to know not everyone gets it every week, but for the most part, those roles are pretty, those, they're pretty reliable.
7:45And I think as that list of players grows, I mean, we can add David Montgomery to the list this year to,
7:51you know, Jameer Gibbs, Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker.
7:54Welcome to the club. So, Ashton Gentty turning into the thing.
7:57Turns out maybe his stance was okay. Chip Kelly, please take that into account.
8:01I mean, yeah. And again, I mean, we can take that all the way down.
8:05I mean, Brees Hall got the workload that you would expect.
8:08And, you know, all the talk coming to the scene, we're going to be a 300 monster.
8:12Well, we heard that last year too, and it wasn't, and, and he had the most carries of his career last year.
8:18I think it could be even bigger this year because they'll add some more receptions.
8:22Yandre Swift got a pretty much a featured role, even with Kyle Mononga chipping in big time in this game, but it
8:28was a huge rushing game for the bears. But I mean, I just think that feature level outcomes are, are, are becoming more prominent.
8:35And some of the guys who fell short, James Cook, Devon H.
8:38And Amari and Hampton, Quinshawn Junkins, you know, even then you'd expect the roles to at least normalize them a little bit,
8:44except Quinshawn Junkins going to have a little bit of a struggle with that offense.
8:48Yeah. Yeah. The way the offense performed for sure, for sure.
8:51But yeah, I mean, I think too, you know, it goes back to, I write about this in the draft guide every
8:57year where, you know, at running back, you generally have to spend money to make money.
9:01Right. And all the guys you just mentioned, Bob are, are guys that we drafted in the first three or four drafts, you know?
9:07Oh, absolutely. Javante Williams. I left off my list.
9:10Right. Yeah. Javante had, had one of the best receiving games of his career, you know, the great cam Scadaboo.
9:15Yes. Yes. So much disrespect. So like some of the guys, you know, you, you, you think about all your flag plants,
9:21the guys that you, you know, you know how I do this.
9:24I talk about, you know, talk to my audience, my readers, you know, I think I'm telling them happy stories about the players.
9:30I want to draft. Right. Yeah. And I tell them sad tales of, when it comes to players, I want to dial
9:36back on, but the happy stories I've been spinning on cam Scadaboo and Deandre Swift, the week one was super satisfying.
9:42I'm realizing it's temporary and nothing, you know, kind of have a little humility in this JJ.
9:46I think that's the, the key to all of this is understanding that lack of control we have, but seeing some of those things come to fruition.
9:54David Montgomery was another one that you're, you know, that we all call ourself, man, Joe Mixon was running back 10 on
10:00a points per game basis in this similar role.
10:02There's some running back one weeks here for, for David Montgomery and, you know, a little red zone luck like we saw
10:08last week and we'll get more of those. Yeah.
10:10Yeah, for sure. That's a really, really good, good thing to point out.
10:14And I do think that so far, you know, of course the other thing to remember too, is that of course we're
10:20looking at small samples, but with the running back position in general, the idea of zero RB would come more to fruition
10:26week 10 week 11, you know, as the season goes on, this is very early to say that this is definitively, you
10:31know, the way that would go, but you're right.
10:34Like you look at some of the workloads, you look at the performances from some of these guys, the better the offenses
10:40are going to perform, the more we're going to see the random David Montgomery, three touchdown performance.
10:44For sure. And, you know, for guys like Derek Henry, you know, who obviously define all the odds, you know, the, the last game of the season, right?
10:52250 pounds still hits 20 miles an hour on the regular, you know, I'm looking, I keep my next gen stats, uh,
10:58speed page open because of Matt Wallen will tell you, that's like my, the centerfold of my, of my porn graphic stat life.
11:04Uh, he's always ranks highly there, but, but you know, that offense in general, that offensive environment.
11:08Now, I mean, Declan Doyle has, uh, had the receiver schemed up nicely to have big games.
11:13Hello, say flowers, Lamar Jackson got done. And, and, and so again, one more, we should stress this like every 30 seconds.
11:19We're right until we're wrong. Yes. And vice versa.
11:21And that can, that can change at the drop of a hat, right?
11:25So injuries, attrition, just general circumstance, anything could change this, but, but you get these signs of the things that you hoped for.
11:31And part of this, JJ, you know how I like to roll.
11:34I like to, you know, a big part of my process is what does a team want to happen?
11:39Yeah. Tell us this through their draft capital. They expend the money they spend in free agency, the moves they make, the coaches they hire.
11:46We know what the desired outcomes are in most cases.
11:49And that should be, you know, that should be part of your process is understanding what the teams want, what the coaches
11:54involved have tendencies towards and trying to play into those, uh, those, those tendencies.
11:58Yeah. Well, you just mentioned that we're going to be, we're going to be wrong a lot.
12:03As, as we both know, we've, we've been, you and I have been wrong.
12:06I mean, look, you've been doing it even longer than me, literal thousands of times, right?
12:11Like, yes, like quite literally thousands of last week, last week alone.
12:14Um, so clearly a preseason take that you had going into the season is, is shaky right now after one week of games.
12:20And I'm, I'm curious of what is that preseason take that, you know, probably didn't go right in week one that you're
12:26now actually, again, small sample size caveat, but you are maybe a little bit concerned about moving forward.
12:31I feel like I speak for many fantasy analysts when I say, Jonathan Brooks, come on, man.
12:35You know, we, I think there was a big drive and you saw the push in ADP where he went from, you
12:41know, like what he was going into 10th, eighth to 10th round.
12:44It was a great opportunity, right? Here's a guy that potentially if he turns into the thing, the Panthers drafted him to
12:50be, could be a league winning kind of player.
12:53Yep. Right. Chuba Hubbard has other ideas. Dave Canales is going to ride the hot hand.
12:57We've seen that in the past. And right now it's Chuba Hubbard.
13:00I think this could change, right? But I, I guess, you know, if I want to extend that out, it's all the
13:06ambiguous backfields, investing in the cheaper pieces so far, you know, is not Kenneth Gainwell.
13:10Yeah. Rashad White, like Chris Rodriguez got a lot of work, but he didn't do a lot with it.
13:15And Bachel Tootin to me, look clearly like he's on the verge of doing some things.
13:20So I think some of those where I tend to go for the cheaper options, it's not looking great at the moment.
13:25Yeah, no, that's a, that's a good one to call out.
13:28I do wonder, are you, is there some sense of optimism with the Jonathan Brooks stuff that it was based off of
13:34the, the, you know, the, the groin or whatever, whatever the case, I mean, they were being really weird about what that injury actually was.
13:41So everyone's just like, you know, it's a private parts type injury or whatever, but, but like, like, is there, is there some optimism because of that?
13:48Yeah. There's optimism. Cause it wasn't the knee, right?
13:51You know, when we heard it, the first thing we heard was just, he was dealing with soreness.
13:55And I said, would that be knee soreness? Cause that's not good.
13:59And when I found out it wasn't, I mean, I'm sorry for your groin, sir, but also glad it wasn't your knee.
14:05So yes, there's a great deal of hope. He still has that opportunity to turn into the guy they drafted him to be.
14:11And we saw, we saw it alternate at times.
14:13Last year, Rico Dowdle came on strong, had that what historic three game stretch last year.
14:17And, but, but that's one part of the, part of the concerns is, is that coaching staff is more than willing to go back and forth.
14:24The guy they want. And, and talking over the, since Chuba Hubbard emerged as, you know, as the lead back there a
14:30couple of years ago, the thing that struck me, the word I keep hearing about his running style is violent.
14:36Yeah. Every beat writer I've talked to has mentioned it.
14:38I hear Dave Canales use that word. So they're all getting it from him.
14:42And so Chuba Hubbard offers something that they really like.
14:45And so that's something you have to keep in mind here, but, but Brooks still, you know, it looks like the more well-rounded, more dangerous breakaway guy.
14:52Although Chuba was a track star in college. He fell back in Canada.
14:55So he was a sprinter. So, but I don't think he has the same kind of elusiveness that Jonathan, Jonathan Brooks stuff.
15:01So yes, I'm still holding out hopes there. Yeah, it was kind of interesting.
15:05So I do the becoming a best ball bro podcast series in the feed during the summer, you know, during best ball season.
15:11And one of the things that my co-host, Rich Ryan and I talked about for the final like month of, of the
15:17season or, you know, of the best ball drafting season was the fact that like, so a lot of people listening to
15:23this 90% plus probably didn't play a ton of best ball, or maybe didn't even notice some of the trends that were going on in best ball.
15:30best ball is even more reactionary than what we see in regular season long leagues.
15:34Right. You know, part of it is because the season long is mostly just drafted in August.
15:39So there's not as much of a timeframe where you can see, you know, these players shifted move in ADP so much,
15:45but one of the crazy, crazy things was that like, I, you know, last year I faded Chuba Hubbard.
15:50I think that he's like fine, but it's not someone that I'm going to like be so totally investing.
15:55Cause I don't think that there's like elite talent there with Hubbard.
15:58Right. Right. And the crazy thing in best ball is that yes, we saw the shift as you noted in, in season long drafts, right.
16:05Where, where Jonathan Brooks was going ahead of Chuba and you know, it was, but there was still like some tightness there
16:11from an ADP perspective, you know, it was still dude, best ball, like over on draft Kings, Jonathan Brooks ended up being like around six pick at times.
16:18And Chuba would be going around 11. Like it was wild.
16:21So it was almost reversed. Yes. From the early part.
16:24And so, you know, and look, once it flipped like that in best ball, I'm, I have, I am filthy with Chuba
16:30Hubbard now as well as Jonathan Brooks. So it's a little easier and you're right.
16:34It is super reactionary. Although I was in drafts in August where, you know, Mike Washington Jr.
16:38suddenly leapt into the fourth round, you know, people trying to leverage momentary situations.
16:42And, and I think, look, I love the way you're in drafts and people go up and get their guy.
16:47Yeah. Right. Like you can see people who are drafting like that.
16:51And I love that's the guy I got to watch out for.
16:54That's the girl I got to watch out for.
16:56If that, that person who is, who is out there aggressively moving and who understands that ADP is where people are being
17:02drafted, not when you have to draft them. And I think you see that more prominent in high stakes, more prominent for the San Francisco 49ers.
17:09It just struck me. They're the high stakes players of the NFL.
17:12They see guys they want. They don't care what ADP says.
17:15They just go grab them. Kalon. Fortunately for them, they have a good manager and AKA Kyle Shanahan, because a lot of
17:21those, a lot of those picks historically have not been the best that they've gone after and reached, but it looks like
17:27so far, look, I do think that early on.
17:29And right now I do think that, you know, the Kalon black investment looks fine.
17:33It, you know, I don't know if he's going to be a stud, but I think he looked good in week one.
17:39And then obviously stripling is hurt. We're not going to see him for 10 weeks, if not more, but it looks like
17:45that was, you know, going to, going to work out.
17:48The opportunity seemed to, you know, the fit, the size, the speed, the downfield blocking, all those things that are Shanahan characteristics.
17:54He's looking for. He likes those things. And, and Trey sermon, notwithstanding, you know, you, as you mentioned, not all those guys work out.
18:00Right. So, yeah. So yeah. Ty Davis price, Joe Williams, like we go on and on with some of these 49 shots.
18:06I want to ask then what a preseason take of yours that looks wrong right now from like a result standpoint that you're just not worried about whatsoever.
18:14So before, you know, Jonathan Brooks, you were worried about a little bit, just based on what we saw week one, maybe there's some concern.
18:20But a take that you had or that you felt.
18:23And then week one happens and you, you know, maybe they didn't perform very well, but you're like, ah, they'll be fine.
18:29I think there was a bunch of them, JJ.
18:31I mean, like Brooks would probably be one of them.
18:34I, I still think I'm going to be okay on that.
18:37Right. Like, I don't think it's going to be a disaster.
18:40I still think Kenneth Gainwell is going to have, have some run.
18:43I still think Christian McCaffrey is a league winning player.
18:46I think week one was an anomaly. I think that that's maybe the one.
18:49So I had him ranked as running back three, but honestly, my argument was, if you thought he was going to play
18:5517 games, is there really a big argument that he would, you know, like you could say, I prefer Jameer Gibbs or
19:01Bajon Robinson, but, but, but if you knew he was going to play and have his role, you would have drafted him like that.
19:08I think the role will return. I think that's one that people are going to be very worried about, but maybe some people were dialed back.
19:15I think the Derek Henry, I was, you know, I was not out on him.
19:19So I think people who were out on him are going to be worried.
19:22Jordan Mason, I'm worried about now. Cause he's hurt.
19:25I had him, you know, leaping ahead of Aaron Jones week.
19:28One wasn't promising in that regard. Yeah. As it was, but then the thumb injury, he's going to miss a month.
19:33And that kind of, you know, puts the kibosh on that.
19:36And Quinchon Junkins. I think the player is good.
19:39I think the role is going to be great.
19:41I hope Shador Sanders gets in there. Cause I think that's the only hope this offense is going to get slightly better.
19:47And it's only that I hope. I hope it's cheap.
19:50JJ. I like to indulge myself. Yeah, no, I'm with you.
19:53I mean, the thing with Quinchon, you know, I wasn't very high on him just from a situation standpoint, obviously, you know,
19:59I don't think there was like a ton of analysts that were like pounding the table for Judkins necessarily.
20:04No, this off season. Right price though. He was fine enough.
20:07Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But I will say I'm very interested to see how much receiving work and negative game script work.
20:12He might end up seeing with Dylan Samson out.
20:15Now Raheem Sanders ended up seeing that this past week.
20:17And that's concerning. You know, I was looking at the splits in the second half last week and Sanders basically had like
20:23a 40% snapshot, you know, in the second, which is a big problem for, for Judkins for sure.
20:28So that would be my biggest concern. If I was worried about somebody not, you know, like I was, you know, say
20:34I'm, I'd love to think that Harold fan is going to rebound, but I don't know that he will because that offensive environment.
20:40Right. And also Casey Concepcion gets a lot of those similar kind of targets to him.
20:44And Denzel Boston gives them a viable downfield threat at the same time.
20:48So they don't need to push that. I guess the one that everyone's probably looking at is the chargers had huge expectations
20:54against the Arizona Cardinals, Mike McDaniels first game. I'll remind you.
20:57He got off to a slow start in Miami as well.
21:00So I think, I think the chargers are going to be fine.
21:03Yeah. I mean, does it not feel like the Raiders Patriots game last year, the week one game?
21:08Yeah, a little bit. Kind of feel that way.
21:10I do. I do have a little bit of concern about their like interior offensive line.
21:14That's the problem. Yeah. That's, that's definitely an issue, but yeah, I mean, it's, it's, it's hard to do all the research
21:20we did over, you know, the last five months and, and think that Tyler Bionish is going to be the reason it all collapses.
21:27Yeah. Yeah. It feels like it's just a little bit, you know, sometimes teams show up and sometimes teams don't.
21:32And sometimes there's a bad game. Not only that, but the chargers offense was a lot better when Lad McConkie was active in that game.
21:39When he left, that's when things really, really went to the crapper.
21:42Also, I mean, it goes back to what I said at the top of the program, the NFL would prefer us to
21:48get those kinds of outcomes every week. And they go out of their way to facilitate them.
21:52And, and kudos by the way, to Michael floor, I had zero expectations for the Arizona Cardinals.
21:57I thought they did a really good job and they had a great game plan.
22:01I thought a lot went right for the Arizona Cardinals as much as it went wrong for the chargers.
22:06Yeah. I mean, I was basically lower than market on all four, the big four Arizona guys this year.
22:11I mean, how dare you? Yeah, I know. I know.
22:14I was on love. I, there's no, I don't know if I have any shares of love with that running back 13 price.
22:20I may have got some when he dipped, when the ankle sprain happened.
22:23And now, now the Michael Wilson shares, you will, you'll find him on pretty much every roster.
22:28It was irresistible. I sat there and I'm like, I, you know, Trey McBride ran 120 more routes than any other tight end last year.
22:35Trey McBride ran a hundred more routes than any other tight end since 2016.
22:38I mean, it was crazy last year, the amount of volume he had.
22:42So I'm like, I'd much rather just go the Bowers route than, than McBride.
22:46Me too. Right. Me too. I was the same.
22:48And then McBride sees crazy usage in week one.
22:50So, so naturally, you know, people are blowing me up deservedly.
22:53So I was wrong so far about Trey McBride, but then like, you know, I couldn't really get behind Marvin Harrison jr.
22:59Just because we haven't really seen it. And then with the Michael Wilson stuff, I'm like, this kind of feels like a profile.
23:05That's like Jerry Judy from last year, you know, where, where his splits were so good in a pass heavy offense with
23:11a backup quarterback, Jameis Winston, Jameis Winston couldn't look at anywhere else.
23:15Right. Right. And, and his numbers look so much better when the injuries happen.
23:18Michael Wilson without Marvin Harrison jr. Jerry Judy without Cedric Tillman that season, it was a very, like there was a lot
23:24of parallels there, but you know, the new coaching staff could, could definitely change things and make things better there.
23:30That was the difference between what we saw at the Browns year over year.
23:33But again, I do look at that week. It's funny.
23:36You bring up Arizona. Cause I've kind of had these thoughts in my mind.
23:40I haven't really shared them on the podcast or anything like that.
23:43We look at what happened with Arizona's offense in week one.
23:46No one was like, I mean, Kendrick Bourne was involved, obviously front of the show.
23:50I got to interview him on. He's great. Unbelievable.
23:52I've been in the league with him. I've been in the league.
23:56Does he not have the greatest energy of anyone you've like ever met?
23:59He's a, he's a wild man and he makes some interesting picks.
24:02Yeah. So, so, so here's, here's my like general like vibes take of Arizona.
24:06And this is where perspective. I love late round perspectives.
24:09Cause this is where I can just kind of throw, throw stuff out there and then let someone react or, you know,
24:15let, you know, it's not, it's not like a full fledged, you know, thought out take, but with Arizona in week one,
24:20uh, Trey McBride had a very, very high target share, uh, more like higher than what he even saw last year.
24:26So I don't think that that's going to maintain.
24:28I think that, you know, it was a great game for him, but at the same time, likely a little bit matchup
24:34based and likely just, you know, a good game for McBride, right?
24:38If Kendrick Bourne is involved in some way in this offense, he's not going to see what he did in week one, week in and week out.
24:45Right. That's why we're not recommending him as like a, you know, a pick up in most 12 team leagues, but if
24:51he's involved in some way as kind of their primary slot and the guy that can play in that 11 personnel, that
24:57is probably not good news for the past catchers in that offense in general, because you're going to like, there's already sort
25:02of some limit natural limitation that you're going to see in Arizona.
25:06And if Trey McBride is going to get a decent chunk and then obviously, you know, Michael Wilson might get his, but,
25:12but like Marvin Harrison jr did nothing in week one, right?
25:15Like low target share barely was looked at. That that's not going to happen.
25:18I know I'm not the biggest fan in the world, but that's not going to happen week in and week out.
25:24So my fear with Arizona right now is that we're looking at week one and we're like Trey McBride league winner.
25:30Sure. It might be, he might do the same thing he did last year and just dominate.
25:34That's always a possibility. I'm still a little bit skeptical because I don't know if the route volume, especially if they play
25:40well defensively, if that route volume is going to be there for him.
25:43Right. And so if it goes game by game to some degree from like a game planning standpoint, I'm just envisioning.
25:49And if Kendrick Bourne is involved and then if they get, Jeremiah love more involved as a receiver, you know, as the
25:55season goes on, is it going to be a roller coaster of frustration from a fantasy football perspective with, with these players in this offense?
26:02That's kind of my, my, I'd almost like rather see Arizona have been down by 20 points in the late second quarter.
26:08And then just do that. The formula that worked for them last year from a fantasy perspective, which was, we're going to
26:13throw the ball a lot and we're going to be fine doing so.
26:17And that's going to be great from a fantasy football perspective.
26:20Yeah. I felt like that was for a minute, low key, uh, Jacoby reset slander.
26:24I wasn't going to stand for it, but I think you qualified it.
26:27No, no, I think you qualified it. He's fine.
26:30Yeah. I think you qualified it well there. Um, yeah, I'm like you, I like just in general, I don't want to
26:36pay what I call the historic premium for a player coming off of a season, like Trey McFryde, where he outscored the second tight end by what?
26:43105, 102 points. Yeah. Ridiculous like that. Uh, you know, I didn't want to pay for that, but I felt like the
26:49world saw it the same because Bowers was going ahead of him.
26:52Yeah. And, uh, so, so yeah, I kind of agree with all that.
26:55I mean, Marvin Harrison Jr. has kind of been lost to me.
26:59I think Michael Wilson has been the guy I've been focused on.
27:02He was cheaper in drafts. He was the cheapest piece of this offense, not named Tyler.
27:06I was here, the passing attack. And, you know, there are concerns for me, like, right.
27:10Like Jacoby Brissett doesn't get to go one on 11 this year.
27:14Right. Uh, you know, I mean, that's, he's not going to get that long of a leash, but you know, the start
27:20was great and maybe he's an ideal fit, but I think Michael Wilson in that zero, you know, the Puka Nakua role
27:25seems like it's a, it's a good fit for him.
27:28And also the chemistry he has built in with Brissett, you know, kind of told me, um, but I'm with the Jeremiah love thing though.
27:35I just thought he was ridiculously high priced. I mean, right back 13, uh, when, you know, I mean, Tyler Algier, you
27:41know, maybe they didn't know they were going to get Jeremiah love when they signed to Tyler out here, but yeah, but they've known for a while.
27:48And if you talk to the people who cover that team on a daily basis, all of them will tell you the same thing.
27:54I don't know. Deer is not going away. And we've heard it as recently as the last week.
27:59Michael for saying, yeah, I don't want any, any of my backs getting all the carries.
28:03I mean, nobody's nobody needs to do that. And so we're going to see a split, but, but that said, I mean,
28:09when you watch Jeremiah love, he is going to be very good.
28:13He looks very good. Yeah. Yeah. He's going to be a very good player.
28:16We've seen it. Even, even B. John Robinson rookie season had the really running back 17.
28:21Yeah. Had very frustrating usage. It's, I mean, and we all just sat there and blamed Arthur Smith, but you know, these
28:26guys, if you look at history and you look at how rookie running backs perform versus ADP expectation, it's gotten a little
28:32bit more difficult for them to beat expectation because that expectation just continues rising.
28:36Right. Right. Clyde Edwards, Hilaire had the ADP rocket strap to his backside.
28:40Ashton, genti last year. I mean, the list is long.
28:42And I, I've done a lot of the rookie analysis and it's very clear based on that analysis, that wide receiver is
28:48the position that you want to attack more from a rookie perspective than running backs in season long, because those are the guys that are beating expectation.
28:55Whereas rookie running backs to me are more neutral and in, in totality.
28:59Like when you look at how they've performed against expectation, it's not that they're like bad picks, but they're just not exceptionally good picks either.
29:06So you don't need to seek out. And I think oftentimes the way the market has, has worked recent seasons is that
29:11you get kind of this group thing, hive mind thing going.
29:14And I fell for it a little bit from like a Travion Henderson perspective last year, you know, and I told myself
29:20a story that wasn't rational enough from like a receiving perspective with Travion Henderson.
29:24And I've definitely learned my lesson there, but I felt this similar way with, with Jeremiah love where I'm like, I got
29:30to probably just draft Javante Williams ahead of, you know, or even Brees Hall, right.
29:34If I'm going to go, if I'm going to go that route, yeah.
29:37If I'm going to go that route, didn't really go that route that frequently, just because I wanted the wide receivers in
29:43that three to five round, three to five range.
29:46But it was, it was a very, it's a very interesting team for me to follow because again, like expectation wise, I
29:52mean, even this week, they don't have a high team total, you know, week in and week out.
29:56We're going to see, yeah, we're going to see a sub 20 point team total for Arizona.
30:01And yet they had four guys going in the single digit rounds of these drafts.
30:05And so, yeah, but I mean, to, to your Michael Wilson point, you know, I was too low on him probably.
30:11And, and I, I now like, I like him straight.
30:13Like I had Marvin Harrison jr ranked ahead of them this summer.
30:17Not like I was drafting Marv though. But now I have in my rest season rankings.
30:21I, I, I made the switch. You know, I just, I don't want to, I think there's going to be more of
30:27that roller coaster with Marv than there's going to be with Michael Wilson more than likely, even though I do think blanket
30:33statement, there's going to probably be the roller coaster of the Arizona Cardinals offense in general.
30:37I think you just highlight something we all have to do.
30:40And we all have to be mindful of. I wrote for sports illustrated back in the early two thousands and Peter King was still there.
30:47And Peter King said, you know, like do you, someone asked you root for stories and he goes, or do you root for teams?
30:53He said, no, we root for our stories and we build these narratives.
30:56I mentioned, you know, we tell ourselves these happy stories and sad tales of woe to, to pick or not pick players.
31:02The best analysts, best fantasy players are the ones who know when it's time to divorce themselves from the narratives they've so carefully crafted over time.
31:09And they want to dearly hold onto and root for, you know, patience is a virtue, but also there comes a point
31:15where you just have to realize what you've said or what you've done is wrong and it's not working.
31:20And the faster you acknowledge that and move past it and the better off you're going to be when it comes time for your playoff.
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32:29Void where prohibited. Download the app today. And admittedly, just from like a human nature standpoint, it's a lot easier for me
32:34to be like, yeah, you know, I wasn't really high on Marv entering the season.
32:38And so I can bump them down even more because it's not like I'm holding on.
32:43Like, I do think anyone listening to this should understand that we're all people that are just people that are, that have
32:49a mindset of, of course we want to be right.
32:51You know, of course we're doing this and would love to just get everything correct.
32:55And it's, it's not the easiest thing to always detach yourself from that.
32:59You know, it's, it's, it's not the simplest thing to just be like, Hey, thousands of people that I'm talking to.
33:04I was really wrong about this. I'm a moron, you know, but you have to, as a fantasy.
33:09You just, you have to, I think, you know, I mean, you're so process driven.
33:13And I think that's the key. Like we think of ourselves, you know, we should think of ourselves as part of the audience, right?
33:20Everyone in the audience has made the same mistakes we have.
33:23They understand the mistakes. They are not here to, to, to hammer us for them, but they're here to, to do is
33:29to learn from the processes and how we adjust and adapt and overcome when we're wrong.
33:33And I think is just as important as being right all the time.
33:36Great point. Let's be right all the time. But, you know, I've been doing this 35 years now and, and here's what I've learned.
33:43Predicting the future is tricky business. Yes. Yes. Very tricky.
33:45That's a, that's, that's profound though. I mean, it's a, it's a really good point to make that I've thought about this
33:51too, is like when you go online and you see people that are like, why don't you would not to me necessarily,
33:57but you know, they'll say this to other analysts and you know, they'll, they'll scream and say, why are you only talking
34:03about the things that you got right? Not to think like talk about, or they appreciate when I go out on the
34:09show and I'm like, Hey, I was wrong about this thing.
34:12And they, and I sit back and I'm like, why is it that people are appreciating the humility of it?
34:17Like, should it really matter that much? And I think there's two things going on.
34:21One is that there are obnoxious analysts out there that are just victory lapping all the time.
34:26And so naturally, you know, you want to kind of hit back and be like, this is really obnoxious and you got to admit when you're wrong.
34:33But I think that the other thing is what you just talked about, where people want to hear where things kind of
34:39go South because then you can get better and a good.
34:42And why? Yes. Right. And a great example of that is the, like the Travion Henderson thing.
34:46Henderson thing for me last year is like the thing that I overstated way too much with Henderson was this assumption that
34:52he would see a high target share. But then you look back and I remember halfway through the season, I went back
34:58and I did more research and I'm like, wait a second.
35:01Rookie running backs just naturally just don't see high target shares.
35:04Like they almost never see. And that was the problem that I have with Jeremiah loves assumptions where they were like, Oh, he'll see a 13% target share.
35:12Cause Tyler Algier doesn't catch passes. Well, it's like, I mean, he did it.
35:15Tyler Algier was kind of a complete back coming out of college and then he did and stuff, you know what I mean?
35:22So like, it wasn't as simple as, you know, and I think I'm not saying that this is going to go one way or another.
35:28I was, I wasn't like massively undervalued on love.
35:31I even have them on some teams, but as you noted when he would fall to the right spot, but I do
35:37think that hearing that process, that understanding of where things might've gone South.
35:40That's why I do that episode on the things I got wrong every year, because I want to get better.
35:45I want to be better for people that are listening to the show.
35:49Like I cared about fantasy football and doing well for, as an analyst for other people.
35:53Right. I think I, you know, if people do have, I was like, I'm on the radio at 20 hours a week,
35:59I do live streams and you're answering a lot of questions.
36:02You're giving a lot of advice. I spend every Sunday curled up in a little ball.
36:06You want, you want your outcomes, you know, all the advice you've given people.
36:10But you know, a couple of things just spinning off that, right.
36:13It is, you know, being the first to say you're wrong before everyone else gets a chance is probably your best course of action in this business.
36:20Yeah. You know, and, and, but also using it to explain the why here's what happened.
36:25Yeah. Right. Like, you know, and again, I, I mentioned at the top, you know, the right decisions don't always lead to the right outcomes, right.
36:32That is part of the game. And the variance is something you have to explain.
36:36The volatility is something you have to explain to people.
36:38But like, I think, you know, when I think about it and I answer many, many questions every week, a lot of
36:44questions, and all of them are a variation of one thing.
36:47Am I crazy too? Hmm. Like to some degree or another, right?
36:50The people are, they want permission to do something that they feel is risky or whatever.
36:55And you talk them through it, you know, and I'm not saying, you know, don't know.
36:59That's a, well, I will tell them when it's crazy because sometimes it is, sometimes it is, yeah, sometimes it is, but
37:05mostly, no, it's not crazy, but here's what you need to happen.
37:08Here's what you're, when you go with this, here's what you're expecting to happen.
37:12Here's what the, the outcomes you need to make that thing happen.
37:15And I think, I think, you know, we should give our audience credit.
37:19Like I, I've always felt this, like our audience feels like they could do our job every bit as good as us,
37:24or not for some quirk of fate or something they probably would be.
37:28And they may be, well be right. I mean, if you're playing fantasy football and you're steeped in the subject enough to
37:34be watching podcasts like this, or listening to me on the radio every day, or reading my work at football guys, you're an expert.
37:40Sorry. Just accept it, you know? And, and that doesn't mean like, you know, like we bounce ideas off each other.
37:46We're all out there talking. What do you think about this?
37:49You know, what do you think about that? Or am I too high here?
37:53You know, and you doing the same thing with us is just basically the same thing to me.
37:57So I think it's kind of all a big community, but that, that whole notion that, that, you know, you can be
38:03both right and wrong on a single player in the same season.
38:06That's going to be very helpful. It gives you all these hope, you know, like I'm not wrong yet.
38:12Yes, yes, yes, exactly. I do. I do love the mantra though.
38:15Never wrong just early. You know, that's, that's always a good one.
38:18That's the best. Yeah. All right. Let's get into some individual players.
38:21So these are, these are players who performed well in week one, and I want to see where you're at with these
38:27guys versus other players that might be considered close to them in like rest of season rankings, or, you know, maybe you
38:33drive, they were drafted ahead of these guys literally two weeks ago.
38:36And then this one game might change, or you just felt this way before the season, but it might've changed the way that you're viewing them now.
38:43So let's start with Jalen Coker. And the first, the first player I want to compare Jalen Coker to is Cortland Sutton.
38:49So I have not been a Coker head until very recently.
38:52I'm a newly minted. Welcome. You're welcome. And thank you for some of the input that I got from you as a reader of the data dump.
39:00I can tell you there was some information there this week.
39:02It was great, but also before that, like, you know, small victory lap, a mini victory lap, you know, the pregame shows
39:08on serious, uh, did a couple of hits. And on my show, I went with the, uh, Jalen Coker anytime touchdown, 300, right?
39:14Great matchup. But I started looking at the numbers before that.
39:17I'm going, what have I been missing here? Here's what I've been missing.
39:21And the thing that you pointed out, of course, in the data dump, 16 points per game, going back to the last eight games, including the playoffs.
39:28He's just been a, he's been a vital part of this offense.
39:31If you think, Bryce young is taking a step forward and he may, I mean, he, he alternately steps forward and back
39:37pretty, pretty regularly, but it's been two good games in a row.
39:40Now we go back to the Rams game. So that's a, that's a good sign.
39:44But yeah, I'm in on co I'm in on Coker now.
39:47And, and I think this is a, this is a tough one because I I've been in on Cortland Sutton and I
39:53don't want to overreact to the week one devastation of this offense.
39:57And I think they'll write the ship, but Jalen Waddle is there.
40:00I'm, I'm probably going to stick with Sutton, but this is, this one's very close for me.
40:04I think I'm Coker. I mean, I think my rest season ranks of Coker over Sutton.
40:09So that's, that's you being close. It's very close.
40:11Yeah. Totally get it. How about versus Marvin Harrison, Jr.
40:14I feel like I know where all day long.
40:16Coker all day long. Marvin Harrison, Jr. is dead to me.
40:19I'm sorry. And then here's, here's another interesting one.
40:21What about Chris Godwin versus Jalen Coker? Man, I had a lot of high hopes for Chris Godwin.
40:26I'm probably, I think Coker is probably the better play right now.
40:29Okay. Okay. Let's move on to Isaiah likely. So first off, what do you, it's funny because likely did this literally a year ago, right?
40:36He did. Exactly. I guess Kansas city. Yeah. Yeah.
40:39The difference being obviously that, you know, Mark Andrews was there and there's another tight end that was sort of in the,
40:44in the way, you know, likely his peripherals were definitely there in week one.
40:48There's a lot of data, you know, he was initially in the draft guide as a target.
40:53I had to change it just because the market kind of caught up.
40:56And I was at market. Like I have likely, it's just, I wasn't like so far ahead that I had to call him out.
41:03But like, if you look at previous season slot rate for tight ends and previous season averaged up the target, but slot
41:09rate in particular, there's a lot of predictive value in that.
41:12And likely obviously had a lot of that going for him, but where are you at with likely right now?
41:17And the first guy I want you to compare him to is Harold Fannin.
41:21I'm in on likely right now. And part of this is everything you just said, but also, you know, over the course
41:27of the summer, I will talk to multiple beat writers.
41:29I've probably talked to 10 to 15 beat writers every week.
41:32You know, one-on-one and get to ask them the questions I want.
41:35And every giant beat writer I talked to said, man, the connection here, you guys are going to go nuts over with a dart and likely.
41:42And, you know, and maybe Malik neighbors as he gets up to speed, will be a limiting factor at some point.
41:48That wouldn't surprise me. But, but, but, you know, thinking that Isaiah likely is the second leading receiver on this team is probably pretty reasonable approach.
41:55I like him an awful lot. I, I feel I have way more confidence in his situation that I do in Harold Fannin's right now.
42:02Harold Fannin's a great player, maybe a better player than Isaiah likely, but he's not in a better situation right now.
42:07I'm back. I'm dialed back on him. Yeah. Look, I don't know Isaiah likely's mom.
42:11And I did meet Harold Fannin's mom last year at the fantasy football expo.
42:15so if I were to power rank moms, I would be putting Harold Fannin's mom ahead of likelies.
42:20I do have Isaiah likely ahead of Harold Fannin rest season.
42:23How about Dallas Goddard who also had a great week one versus Isaiah likely?
42:26Yes. Isaiah likely ahead of Dallas Goddard. Dallas Goddard, you know, his 2025 was built on a, on a pile of unexpected
42:32touchdowns and maybe it happens again, but I'm not betting on that.
42:36Yeah. Washington's also been horrible, horrible against tight ends.
42:38All right, then. All right. We're going to, we're going to take a step up then.
42:42Tyler Warren versus Isaiah likely. I'm probably going to stick with Tyler Warren, but it's a, it's a harder decision than it should be.
42:49Yeah, it is. It is. No, I'm not. I don't disagree.
42:52Especially, you know, you get Alec Pierce looking healthy, like, you know, he had a limited snap share, but he was still getting better.
42:58Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of players there that they got to, got to get the ball to with Keenan Allen there now.
43:05So they don't got to get the ball to Keenan Allen or Josh down.
43:09I mean, they can, but they don't have to, it's going to be with the money.
43:13He tells us it's going to Alec Pierce for sure.
43:15That's another one of those where the desired outcome is, is painfully clear because Michael Pittman is not there.
43:21And, and Alec Pierce is very rich. And if you have hopes for this offense though, I think part of what needs
43:26to happen here is we need to see some semblance of the offense.
43:30We saw last year when Daniel Jones was healthy.
43:32I think the first eight games, he averaged what 32 points a game.
43:36And it slid down, you know, after the fibula thing to 28 points and it was still good.
43:41Jonathan Taylor was running back to during that first stretch.
43:43And, and Warren was what it was tight end for when that offense was hitting on all sellers.
43:48I'd like to give that a chance to see if it could happen again, but it's again, closer than it should be.
43:54Yeah, no, no, I'm with you. I have Tyler Warren ahead of likely, but it is, it is, you know, likely definitely
44:00like it's one of those things where there are players like Parker Washington's another one.
44:04Well, actually we can talk about them right now.
44:06Parker Washington's on this list, but Parker Washington's one of those players where, you know, I was high on them entering the
44:12season and, you know, ahead of market. I really liked what, you know, there were trends that definitely favored what he did
44:18second half of last year and how that translates the next year, all of that.
44:22Right. But when you look at my like rest of season rankings, he saw a big jump from where he was in my redraft rankings.
44:29And some might call that irrational, but to me, it's, it's sort of like a more obvious extreme example than the Isaiah
44:35likely one where we have these ideas in our head of like, okay, well, if this thing happens, like if, if Jacksonville
44:41runs heavier, has, has heavier personnel, more tight ends, fewer wide receivers on the field, but Parker Washington is one of those wide receivers.
44:47It's not rotating out as much. Then all of a sudden you can see a wide receiver one season happening for Parker Washington.
44:53Right. And from a usage standpoint in week one, we more or less saw that happen.
44:58You know, they, they ran so heavy. They had a lot of two tight, like a lot more two or fewer wide receivers on the field.
45:04And then Washington did his thing. So I'm curious if you feel the same way about like, you know, making that jump
45:10based on one game, because the priors were at least there.
45:13And you just wanted a year over year confirmation to some degree, or if you are still a little bit like just a little bit where, understandably.
45:21So like it's, it's still risky to be like all in on Parker Washington.
45:24There's still a risk involved in doing that. But to me, I was pleasantly surprised, not surprised, pleasantly satisfied, satisfied, let's say by what happened in week one.
45:32All of that. Yes. And all, all the, you know, the role going back to last year is super important, but also
45:38the things I've been hearing all summer long. Of course, my co-host on serious Mike Dempsey is in the building.
45:43He's working there every day. If you wanted to draft Parker Washington and you draft with Mike Dempsey, you better get up early.
45:49Okay. He's been all over. And I think the guys that cover, you know, the group of people to cover the team
45:55has been all on this as well. Look, this is an ascendant offense.
45:59We saw last year, Trevor Lawrence dominate the last eight games of the season is quarterback one.
46:03He has all the pieces, but he doesn't seem to agree with all of them.
46:07Yeah. Brian Thomas jr. So Parker Washington to me looks like the guy that they've been trying to pay.
46:12All the signs are there. Everything, the numbers that you mentioned, all the narratives tie it together.
46:17I think he's right there. I'm just curious. Where do you have him when you're rest of season rankings?
46:22I think he's like a high end wide receiver too right now, like in that like 14 area for me or something.
46:28So, so I was going to, you know, we're going to talk bold predictions here.
46:32I know. So he, my bold prediction was Parker Washington wide receiver one at the end of the season.
46:37I'm going to let that go. I'm going to throw it out now and do a different one.
46:42But, but I think, I think that's possible. I, I truly believe that he is capable of that in this offense, right?
46:48That's part of the equation is look at where this offense is going, where it's been and where it's going.
46:53It seems to still be on the rise and Liam Cohen in year two.
46:57I mean, they're just tweaking, fine tuning, getting things better.
46:59I like a lot of what I see there.
47:02All right. So then I'll ask you a few players of who you would like, you know, Parker Washington versus this guy.
47:08We'll start with Garrett Wilson. I'd still like Garrett Wilson more.
47:11Okay. How about Devante Smith? Probably still Devante Smith.
47:13And then here's one that, that will break people's brains.
47:16Drake London. I'll take right now. Parker Washington. Yeah.
47:18I think I'm so until Michael Penix is back in the mix until we see Michael Penix play.
47:23Once Michael Penix is back in what we saw last year over the nine games, they played together was phenomenal.
47:28Exactly. Right. The workload. Like I talked about it at the top, you, you know, what are we drafting?
47:33Well, we're drafting roles and volume. That's Drake London with Michael Penix is the epitome of roles and volume for a wide receiver.
47:40So, so yeah, so to be my, it'll be Drake London.
47:42If when Michael Penix is back, you know, we're, we're still mad at Anthony Richardson for tapping his helmet.
47:48And I just heard Michael Penix telling me, yeah, I'm not right.
47:51I'm not quite ready yet. Coach. No, not yet.
47:53I remember doing some looking into the splits with Michael Penix.
47:56Michael Penix and Drake London last year on like a per route run basis and such.
48:00And it's actually just wild. It is how insane.
48:03Drake London has been with Michael Penix and without Michael Penix throughout his career.
48:07Like it's just, it's literally night and day. So we are, if you, if you're a Drake London bag holder, if you
48:12have them on your team, you gotta be just crossing your fingers and praying to the fantasy football gods that Michael Penix
48:18is able to play sooner rather than later. Cause it makes a dramatic, dramatic difference.
48:22But yeah, like looking at my rest season rankings right now, I have a Parker Washington, sitting at wide receiver 14 rest of season.
48:29He's right below Devante Smith. I do have, I have him over Garrett Wilson rest of season.
48:33Okay. Yeah. If you want to be even more bullish in that, totally understand if you're a little bit scared, like I
48:39think this can go in a lot of different directions.
48:42I just, I'm at the point where I'm believing in the talent and believing in what we're seeing.
48:47See, I have a, I have a problem. And everyone who listens to me knows this.
48:51If you're not going to make me write down the list and show it to you, I'm going to fit 30 guys in my top 12.
48:58Yeah. Right. Right. Exactly. Right. Yes, exactly. That's what, when people come back and they're like, why do you have this guy ranked right here?
49:05And I'm like, well, tell me who you want to have ranked ahead or below them.
49:09You know, there's only that many spots. I can't do it.
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50:14Void where prohibited. Download the app today. How about David Montgomery?
50:17So you mentioned him a little bit earlier. So I'm curious where you're at with Montgomery.
50:21And then we'll, we'll talk about some other guys to compare him to.
50:25I've been all in the day that they traded for him.
50:28I wrote, he's a solid running back to with running back one weeks built into the built in, because there's going to be red zone luck.
50:35And we saw it week one. I don't think any of that changes.
50:38There was a brief period. So the narrative was built all off season and demand.
50:42They are building this offense, a smash mouth offense around Montgomery, a guy they think can do it all as a receiver,
50:48as well as a, as a runner. And, and they're going to lean into that defense and all those things.
50:53Then we got a little bit of a, a little bit of a Woody Mark spike there in late August.
50:59And it made people nervous. I don't know if it, I'm trying to remember if it dropped in Montgomery's ADP a little,
51:05he was pretty steady around running back 19 or 20.
51:07I felt like that was a really good price for him.
51:10Not a huge discount, but about the right price.
51:13And you would probably have weeks where you felt like you really got a great deal.
51:17I think that's right where he's at. Yeah. I mean, look every week for my draft guide, I would pull my rankings versus ADP, right?
51:24So consensus ADP, I'd, I'd, I'd take it from ESPN, Yahoo and CBS.
51:27And then that would kind of dictate if I should call out a guy as a target or avoid.
51:32And every week I'm like, why is David Montgomery like RB 25 on this platform?
51:36Or why is he, you know, like it was a little bizarre because even if you weren't overly bullish on the talent or over, it was very clear.
51:44There was at least some situation there. I am, you know, he did see like week one, Woody marks did play a
51:50decent amount of snaps to be fair, but it does seem like, you know, Montgomery is going to at least be the goal line guy.
51:56And like you said, we should feel good about just their general philosophy.
52:00So let's go one by one here. David Montgomery versus Travis H in and week one, or the artist formerly known as ETN.
52:06If they're going to turn this into a three-way split, the Saints, Alvin Kamarian and the great Kendra Miller.
52:11Let's not overlook the great Kendra Miller. The Saints told us what they wanted.
52:15Yeah. With $13 million a year over the next four years, Travis H in, they're not acting like that, but also I had concerns coming in.
52:22That was not a good run blocking unit last year.
52:24And Travis H and whatever success he's had, like, he's not a powerful guy.
52:28He's not a, like a bulldozer at the, at the, at the end, at the goal line, any of those things.
52:34So I have concerns here. I would probably feel more comfortable with the consistency of David Montgomery.
52:38Yep. I have Montgomery ahead right now too. This one's, this one's more difficult for me.
52:43Bucky Irving versus David Montgomery. After week one. So it's funny.
52:46Cause I was not drafting Bucky Irving. I wasn't very high on Irving either.
52:49That was probably one of my big, if I'm looking back at like, you know, I made him like a soft fit.
52:55He wasn't like a hard fade for me, but even, you know, I had him in the same tier with like Montgomery and stuff, but I was concerned.
53:03The only thing that I'm still waiting to see is what happens when Sean Tucker's active.
53:07Correct. And there's a three way split there. I like, we'll see, like it was a great matchup week one though.
53:13I know the Bengals made all kinds of improvements and added the middle of the defensive line, Allen and Lawrence and all that.
53:19but, but still it, you know, last year it was one of the most, generous defenses to running backs.
53:24And so I feel like maybe Bucky Irving caught a break.
53:27So I was out on him in draft season, but I, I do a weekly column in and out where I try
53:33and leverage the projections and pick guys to overperform.
53:35And he was one of the guys I picked over perform because of the matchup.
53:39And in the early season, I think he can handle it.
53:42Like, you know, and again, I don't, I'm not one of those people says, Oh, 200 pound running backs.
53:47Can't, can't be great. Jameer Gibbs would argue they can.
53:50And so Bucky Irving's rookie year would say the same, but, but he's like, what?
53:54192 pounds. Yeah. Built for that full load. And so they bring in these other, bring back, bring in Kenneth Gainwell, who
54:00was what running back seven from week 11 on last year.
54:03I mean, you know, he was pretty, pretty productive player.
54:05Um, it hadn't been before that. So I get it, but, but yeah, I had a lot to reason style back, but
54:11I think week to week, there are going to be huge games for Bucky Irving when the matchup favors them and maybe
54:17the circumstances, but in general, I feel like David Montgomery would be again, the more consistent play.
54:22And then I'm really curious about your take based on what we talked about earlier with Jeremiah love versus David Montgomery.
54:27I think, you know, here, I'll fall back on that.
54:30Well, it depends on your roster construction. There you go.
54:33The fantasy analyst cop out baby. Uh, talking to some of the people that Howard balls has been covering the NFL for
54:39a thousand years, like me and talk to him a fair amount.
54:42And, you know, like he said, at some point he said, yes, there's going to be Tyler out here, but, but Jeremiah love is, is a different level.
54:49It's like something, uh, Vinnie Bonson, you or told me about when, when, when, uh, Ashton Gentie got her, Mike Washington is not Ashton Gentie, right?
54:56So there are, there are players that are different level.
54:59David Montgomery is not Jeremiah love. He's not at that.
55:02It's not at that tier. I think the roles are what sets them apart.
55:05So this one's really close to me. I'm probably still going to lean Montgomery for now until I see the, the roles
55:11normalize for love and see what, see where he ends up.
55:14Yeah. I think all three are, are interesting. Like I have, I would rank the four that we said just to, for, you know, additional context.
55:21Cause I do think it's just interesting. Like there's no right answer here.
55:25I would go love Irving Montgomery, HN with Irving and Montgomery, Bucky and Montgomery being like very, very close, you know, I think that's good rest of season.
55:32I'm thinking more in the moment and probably that's, you know, skewing me a little bit.
55:36Just, I feel more comfortable with where Montgomery's at in the moment, but looking, if I step back, I think you probably have it about right.
55:43Yeah. Yeah, for sure. All right. Let's do quickly.
55:46We already talked about Chuba Hubbard, but I am curious if you would go, let's look at this from a rest of season lens.
55:52Chuba or Blake Corum. Chuba. Okay. Chuba or Quinchon Judkins.
55:55Chuba. Chuba or Jadarian Price. Chuba. at some point, I mean, does he not get some goal line?
56:00Red zone work. Does he not like at some point is George Alani become less a thing in those situations?
56:05I would like to lean price here. Yeah, I would lean price there too.
56:09I think the Judkins one is interesting. I'd probably, yeah, I'm probably Judkins just because there's the, the hope of that belt.
56:15Like I'm still worried about Jonathan Brooks digging into Chuba Hubbard's work.
56:18Sure. You know, like I still think that true thing.
56:21All right. And then the last one is Deandre Swift who also had a big week one game.
56:25So we'll go Deandre Swift versus Kyron Williams. Deandre Swift over the world.
56:29No, that's a very close one. I mean, like, so I'm a huge Deandre Swift guy.
56:33I've been howling about the, the prospects all year and realizing last year was again, another performance.
56:38So running back 14 performance, heavily reliant on touchdowns.
56:40Yeah. Glad that he got three to start the season.
56:43But I feel like there's room for more for him as a receiver.
56:46If you look back to his last year in Detroit with Ben Johnson, he had a 70 ish targets.
56:51I want to say if they can bump that number up again this year and also let him run, I think he's
56:57going to have a very good season. And I'm so I'm probably pushing the envelope on this one and, and overstating the case here.
57:04If I say Swift, so I will say not Swift.
57:06Okay. How about, how about Swift or Brees Hall then?
57:09I've been in a Brees Hall is another one there.
57:12They're so dead. I think I had them 13 and 14 coming into the season.
57:16Yeah. So still, I mean, probably. What about, what about Amari and Hampton versus Deandre Swift?
57:20Are you, are you panicking, hitting that panic button with, with Hampton after one week?
57:24No, anybody's entire finish. So I think they'll get things straightened out, but there's reasons for concern there.
57:29I, you know, part of their concern with Swift is off.
57:32Obviously Kyle, when on guy and they're probably getting into games where they throw the ball a heck of a lot.
57:37I think, I hope he still has a role in there.
57:40I probably lean Hampton here too. All right. A few more things before I let you go.
57:45I want a buy candidate and a sell candidate for you, from you after one week of games.
57:50I don't like to sell anybody. I'm like a, not an early season mover.
57:54Yeah. If I was selling right now, I'd probably be selling like a, maybe a Chuba Hubbard.
57:58If I thought I could get away with it or Bucky or Ring.
58:02One, one of the ambiguous backs. Yeah. I look Chuba, Chuba was the sell in 15 transactions this week.
58:07So I'm with you, you know, I haven't read that yet, but it's in my inbox.
58:11Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I agree. I agree with the, with the Chuba.
58:14Is there anyone that you're, that you would aggressively be buying right now?
58:18Yeah. I'm probably going to be aggressively buying. Like if someone's willing to give up on Jalen Waddle, I'll be looking for guys like that.
58:25I think the Denver offense is going to be way better than it ended up.
58:29JK Dobbins is a guy that I've been in on all year.
58:32I think they're going to run the ball better.
58:34I still think he's the lead piece there. I don't know that I'm going to be out actively trying to acquire him, but I don't have concerns.
58:41I would be trying to acquire like a Waddle.
58:44However, I think I think anybody in, in Los Angeles, if anyone gets nervous and drops anybody in Los Angeles, Clinton Johnston
58:50would be like, I would love to be able to pick up Clinton Johnston.
58:53Yeah. Yeah. I like those call outs. All right.
58:56One more thing. Give me a bold prediction. It could be, it could be moving forward or just for week two.
59:02Well, you know, dealer's choice here. It was, well, Parker Washington and wide receiver one week too, for sure.
59:07But, but probably for the rest of the season, but I already kind of said that one.
59:11So I'm going to go with Matthew golden leading the green Bay Packers and receptions this year.
59:16I love that. I mean, I, I feel like I've been out.
59:19So my journey with Matthew golden has been very interesting.
59:22I wasn't, wasn't really, you know, I was maybe like at market with him or so during draft season.
59:27So I have him on some teams, not like overwhelmingly.
59:29So I didn't really like him as a prospect coming out for sure.
59:33So I wasn't really high on him last year, but that week one, I'm very high on the Packers passing it.
59:38They can't run block at all. And obviously they have less of a rotation with their wide receivers.
59:43Jordan love is a good quarterback and he's been really good in like EPA per play and such over the last couple of years.
59:50I just think there's a very real chance. We see more volume and passing volume in that offense in general, Matthew golden's
59:56usage in week one, his, we have a expected fantasy points formula that Brandon Godula had built for late round fantasy football.
60:02Matthew golden's expected PPR points in week one was second at wide receiver behind only Amin Ross, same Brown.
60:07And it's wild. I'm doing my weekly rankings. I'm like 10 wide receiver spots ahead of the market with Matthew golden.
60:12My rest of season rankings. I think he's like a firm high end wide receiver three right now.
60:17If not higher, you know, I'm thinking a wide receiver too.
60:20Yeah. Yeah. I mean like when you look at like where, cause like right now in my, my rest of season, like
60:26I have him right next to like Devante Adams, Roma dunze, you know, like in that area of wide receivers, pretty deep.
60:32So it's, you know, it's tough to like really push them up into like the, the, the legit, you know, like the,
60:38like I saw a waddle ahead of them for instance and such, but I like to say wide receiver gives us room for error, right?
60:44Like, you know, it is so deep that if you miss on a guy, there's going to be someone there to pick up the slack.
60:51But I don't like, I don't think we're missing on love or golden.
60:55And, and I think, you know, again, listening to talking to the beat writers there, this was something that they like three,
61:00four different beat writers all said the same thing independently.
61:03Just asking who's going to leave the seam and receive it.
61:06It's going to be Matthew golden. And I like, if I thought there was a quarterback in Cleveland, I would be super
61:12edgy and say something really cool about Denzel Boston.
61:14Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I still think that, that him and Concepcion could be fine from like a volume standpoint, if
61:20they hit those negative game scripts pretty frequently. So we'll see there, but yeah, the, the golden stuff was, was interesting preseason because it was very clear.
61:27He was going to get an opportunity, right? A chance to prove it.
61:31And the priors that I had were, he didn't do anything year one.
61:34He didn't look very great in year one either.
61:37And his prospect profile wasn't very strong. And it's very rare to see that kind of profile then blow up in year two.
61:43And like really, you know, ironically we did see it from like, it's kind of like a Devante Adams kind of trajectory, right?
61:49Where it was just like horrible at first. And then it kind of comes to, it really came together for him.
61:55And so typically we don't see this profile do well, nine out of 10 times.
61:59You know, maybe even 95 out of a hundred times, but at the same time, it was very clear.
62:04He was going to get that shot. Right. And this is where we get to factor in what the team's desired outcome.
62:10exactly. They told us last year when they drafted him in the first round, something they hadn't done with a wide receiver in my entire adult lifetime.
62:17Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, it's a, it's a, a player that I didn't think I'd be sitting.
62:22Every show, I feel like this week I've said something about guys, this Matthew golden thing looks like it's for real.
62:27And the market is not reacting in a way where it's for real.
62:31And I, I, I'm very bullish on what is, I mean, I loved Christian, Christian Watson entering the year and it was
62:37way higher than marking on him, but the golden stuff looks like it's, it's very, very legitimate.
62:41And so I love that you, you called him out.
62:44Um, but Bob, this was great. I always love chatting with you.
62:47You bring so much wisdom to this, to this show that, that lacks it.
62:51So, uh, if you could let everyone know where they can find you and all this, the great stuff you're working on
62:57this season, you could mostly find me reading JJ Zachary's work.
63:00I'm a avid consumer. You can catch me. Well, you can't miss me on Sirius XM radio.
63:04I'm on fantasy radio Monday through Friday, eight to 10 Sunday morning, the pregame show 11 to one with Jeff Manns Saturday
63:10nights, three hours on the fantasy channel and NFL radio.
63:13It's a simulcast people. It's all technological. Uh, and so I'm there all the time at football guys, my weekly columns, a
63:19fantasy notebook out every Thursday coming out today. I talk a lot about the feature backs that we, discussed earlier, my in
63:25and out column on Saturdays, uh, and my live stream on Saturdays.
63:28I love having the people come talk to me.
63:30I spend an hour ask anything. We just sit around and discuss just like what we did here today.
63:35Uh, just kind of talk about situations, circumstances and what we think in my, on the, on the hot seat videos, uh, come out every Wednesday.
63:42Awesome stuff. Uh, again, really appreciate it. All of you guys, uh, if you haven't checked out late round.com and checked out
63:48the new members hub, et cetera, et cetera, do that.
63:51Go to late round.com. Otherwise everyone. Thanks for tuning in.
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