0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Bob Harris is an analyst at Football Guys and host at SiriusXM Fantasy.
0:05He previously did work for well over two decades with football diehards.
0:09He's a Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Famer, he's my Peloton buddy, and he's just one of the best people in the fantasy football industry.
0:16These are his Late-Round Perspectives. I interviewed Austin Eckler for the show last week for Perspectives.
0:20And there's, you know, like I had never talked to him before, you know, it was the first time chatting and stuff like that.
0:26And there's a sense of like, it's not uneasiness, it's just the anxiety of you wanting to make sure that things go
0:32a certain way or that you say the right things or that you can you connect in some way, right?
0:37Right. There's something just so nice about a Perspectives Week, when it's a friend, when it's someone I've done plenty of shows
0:43with that I talk to, you know, and that's you, Mr.
0:46Harris. I'm very excited to have this, to do this show.
0:49I always enjoy the invite. And by the way, Austin Eckler was all over the Fantasy Nation thing in Vegas couple weeks
0:55ago, interviewing people, doing interviews, super accessible, super nice, super knowledgeable, really great guy.
0:59It was a really good event. You know, I hope they grow it and make it better.
1:03But, but Austin Eckler was a highlight for pretty much everyone.
1:06And I think, I think he felt the same about all of us.
1:10Yeah, it's one of the, it's, you know, it's rare where like, it's not in, because sometimes you get athletes and you
1:16get like celebrities and such that are like, you know, they're just kind of going through the motions because they're trying to
1:22push something or get something out there. He genuinely cares.
1:24You know, I talked about it to him a little bit afterwards and stuff like he genuinely cares.
1:29Like you can tell that he genuinely cares. I think that's a really, really important part to all of that.
1:35And he understands the game. I think that's always been the fascinating part to me of going back to, you know, the
1:40early 2000s when, you know, we were doing the fantasy sports publications magazines.
1:44We really started getting into the player interviews and leaning into them.
1:47And some of these guys were like, really got it.
1:50Like Larry Johnson. I can remember just going, man, this fantasy football is what makes a Raiders fans, a Larry Johnson fan,
1:56you know, and so, and, and he got it.
1:58And others did too. Sean Alexander, Priest Holmes thought, man, maybe after I'm done playing, I could, I could get into this.
2:04And LaDainian and Tomlinson, of course, totally understood what we were all about and still does.
2:08It's just always good getting that connection with people who kind of get what we're doing.
2:13Not all of them did. Jake Plummer would like you to know among others, but, but yeah, that was always interesting to
2:18see how they viewed us, you know, knowing how we view that.
2:22Yeah. I got to ask you, have you gotten your Peloton right in today?
2:25I have not yet today. It's going to be a nighttime thing.
2:29I'm starting to, I'm starting to drift into the evenings more.
2:32The late night schedule on work is kind of keeping me from the early morning ride.
2:36So, but I will not miss as you know.
2:38Yeah, I know. Oh, I see. I see you on there all the time, man.
2:42You're crushing it, crushing it. All right. Let's get into just straight into some of the stuff that's been going on in the fantasy football world.
2:49As we, you know, we're now done with one week.
2:52We kind of learned a little bit, but probably think that we learned more than we actually did because it's usually how this stuff goes.
2:59So we're in this weird spot where we want to react, but we don't want to overreact.
3:03So my question to you to kick things off is what are you looking for early on in the season, whether it
3:09be week one, week two, to sort of help that balance of, of being reactive, but not reacting too much and going
3:15crazy because you drafted a lot of Jalen Waddle and he was horrible in week one.
3:19Right. That's the biggest battle, right? And I mean, you'll see these people fever dropping all kinds of players.
3:24Week one, be right. First, watch your waiver wire, see who's getting dropped because people will do the craziest, most unexpected things.
3:30I think that the things that I noticed in week one was the scoring.
3:34It was great. Sunday's games averaged 50, what? 53.3 points.
3:37Crazy. It was off the chart. Monday night came up a little short with 41 points, but six games on Sunday saw at least 60 combined points.
3:44And one of them set a new bar. Thank you, Bears.
3:47Thank you, Panthers. 96 points. Highest scoring week one game in NFL history.
3:50So it appears the offenses are ahead of the defenses.
3:53So again, week one is a big fat liar.
3:55We all know this, right? Like we are going to see things that don't persist, but some of the things that I,
4:01you know, and I try to remind my audience that all the time is, is, you know, September is the new August, right?
4:07There's, there's, you know, we're playing a game based on a game that's designed to be volatile, to have variants, to have unexpected outcomes.
4:14It's not a bug. That's a feature. That's the desired outcome for the NFL.
4:18And, you know, you have to mentally deal with the fact that every, you know, the best, your, your great process, making
4:23the best decisions is not going to lead to the best outcomes every week.
4:27It's just not how this works. And so once you realize this and like, look, we want to have control and I
4:33want to say we have control, but it's like a NASCAR driver.
4:36The minute that car starts spinning, you'll hear them all say the same thing.
4:40Well, at that point, I'm just a passenger, right?
4:42Once the kickoff happens, we're just passengers. We've made our decisions.
4:45We've made logical choices. We've looked at all the numbers.
4:48We've reviewed everything we can, but we're not calling plays.
4:51We're not throwing passes. We're not blocking for anybody.
4:53We're not taping ankles or our control ends. And we just have to sit back and watch.
4:58And I think that's one of the frustrating and exhilarating things about this, about this game.
5:02Yeah. I think that the, the point about how much scoring there was in week one, I actually took a step back
5:08and I was, I was texting a couple of folks in the industry.
5:11I have a text thread with our main event team that we had drafted.
5:15It's me, Silva, Davis, Matic, Pat Thorman, and Rich Rebar.
5:18So the five of us, you know, we do a main event team every year together.
5:22And then we have a text thread where we're just texting about, you know, life, fantasy football, et cetera.
5:27And we were all texting about the high scoring nature of week one.
5:31And then I started thinking about it. Cause I didn't really, you know, I'm like, yeah, cool.
5:35It was a high scoring week one. That's fun.
5:38But I actually, I took a step back and I thought about the idea that I like when this happened, when there's
5:44more usable pieces in fantasy football more because when, you know, like last year, even year before that, whatever, you know, when,
5:49when you get quarterback injuries or you get these different offenses that are maybe leaning a bit, a little bit more run
5:55heavy, whatever the case may be, you get more inefficiency on offense and you only get, let's say five to eight, like
6:01legitimate, legitimate game breaking players in fantasy football. It makes the game less interesting, right?
6:05Yes. Because, because I mean, look, when you're doing weekly rankings last year, I remember when I was doing the weekly rankings
6:11last year, I would get to wide receiver and I'm like, these guys, after the eighth wide receiver, everyone sucks.
6:16It's the same guy over and over again, you know?
6:19And so like, I'm hoping that this sticks to some degree more so than what we had maybe the last couple of
6:25years, because now it's not just, Oh, you won your fantasy championship.
6:28Did you have B. John Robinson or not? Okay.
6:31You didn't. Okay. You didn't win, you know, or, or you didn't have Chris McCaffrey last year, whatever the case may be.
6:37I just think it's better for the game in general.
6:39When you get more of these offenses doing these things, we just have to hope that, you know, if the bears drop
6:45another 59 burger, it's not Khalif Raymond with the, with the 30 plus target share.
6:49And we get guys. Yeah, exactly. The donut did not taste good.
6:52No, that did not, did not at all. So I guess leading into that, you know, we just did months and months
6:58of prep, you know, getting into this season. What do you think was the most surprising revelation in week one?
7:04The most surprising or most satisfying because I've been banking on it, but it's the, it's back to the feature, JJ, the
7:10feature back, the true feature running backs. You know, like, look, there was a period where the zero running back strategies and hero running back strategy made sense.
7:17We saw more people drafting, doubling up on running backs in the first two rounds or certainly in the first three rounds.
7:23And it paid off. You look at the guys that are getting, you know, the carries we want.
7:28Like, again, we go back to the variance and volatility.
7:30What are the things that I, that I can control?
7:33Well, I can't actually control it, but I can count on certain volume or at least certain anticipated volumes.
7:38Christian Caffrey would like you to know not everyone gets it every week, but for the most part, those roles are pretty, those, they're pretty reliable.
7:45And I think as that list of players grows, I mean, we can add David Montgomery to the list this year to,
7:51you know, Jameer Gibbs, Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker.
7:54Welcome to the club. So, Ashton Gentty turning into the thing.
7:57Turns out maybe his stance was okay. Chip Kelly, please take that into account.
8:01I mean, yeah. And again, I mean, we can take that all the way down.
8:05I mean, Brees Hall got the workload that you would expect.
8:08And, you know, all the talk coming to the scene, we're going to be a 300 monster.
8:12Well, we heard that last year too, and it wasn't, and, and he had the most carries of his career last year.
8:18I think it could be even bigger this year because they'll add some more receptions.
8:22Yandre Swift got a pretty much a featured role, even with Kyle Mononga chipping in big time in this game, but it
8:28was a huge rushing game for the bears. But I mean, I just think that feature level outcomes are, are, are becoming more prominent.
8:35And some of the guys who fell short, James Cook, Devon H.
8:38And Amari and Hampton, Quinshawn Junkins, you know, even then you'd expect the roles to at least normalize them a little bit,
8:44except Quinshawn Junkins going to have a little bit of a struggle with that offense.
8:48Yeah. Yeah. The way the offense performed for sure, for sure.
8:51But yeah, I mean, I think too, you know, it goes back to, I write about this in the draft guide every
8:57year where, you know, at running back, you generally have to spend money to make money.
9:01Right. And all the guys you just mentioned, Bob are, are guys that we drafted in the first three or four drafts, you know?
9:07Oh, absolutely. Javante Williams. I left off my list.
9:10Right. Yeah. Javante had, had one of the best receiving games of his career, you know, the great cam Scadaboo.
9:15Yes. Yes. So much disrespect. So like some of the guys, you know, you, you, you think about all your flag plants,
9:21the guys that you, you know, you know how I do this.
9:24I talk about, you know, talk to my audience, my readers, you know, I think I'm telling them happy stories about the players.
9:30I want to draft. Right. Yeah. And I tell them sad tales of, when it comes to players, I want to dial
9:36back on, but the happy stories I've been spinning on cam Scadaboo and Deandre Swift, the week one was super satisfying.
9:42I'm realizing it's temporary and nothing, you know, kind of have a little humility in this JJ.
9:46I think that's the, the key to all of this is understanding that lack of control we have, but seeing some of those things come to fruition.
9:54David Montgomery was another one that you're, you know, that we all call ourself, man, Joe Mixon was running back 10 on
10:00a points per game basis in this similar role.
10:02There's some running back one weeks here for, for David Montgomery and, you know, a little red zone luck like we saw
10:08last week and we'll get more of those. Yeah.
10:10Yeah, for sure. That's a really, really good, good thing to point out.
10:14And I do think that so far, you know, of course the other thing to remember too, is that of course we're
10:20looking at small samples, but with the running back position in general, the idea of zero RB would come more to fruition
10:26week 10 week 11, you know, as the season goes on, this is very early to say that this is definitively, you
10:31know, the way that would go, but you're right.
10:34Like you look at some of the workloads, you look at the performances from some of these guys, the better the offenses
10:40are going to perform, the more we're going to see the random David Montgomery, three touchdown performance.
10:44For sure. And, you know, for guys like Derek Henry, you know, who obviously define all the odds, you know, the, the last game of the season, right?
10:52250 pounds still hits 20 miles an hour on the regular, you know, I'm looking, I keep my next gen stats, uh,
10:58speed page open because of Matt Wallen will tell you, that's like my, the centerfold of my, of my porn graphic stat life.
11:04Uh, he's always ranks highly there, but, but you know, that offense in general, that offensive environment.
11:08Now, I mean, Declan Doyle has, uh, had the receiver schemed up nicely to have big games.
11:13Hello, say flowers, Lamar Jackson got done. And, and, and so again, one more, we should stress this like every 30 seconds.
11:19We're right until we're wrong. Yes. And vice versa.
11:21And that can, that can change at the drop of a hat, right?
11:25So injuries, attrition, just general circumstance, anything could change this, but, but you get these signs of the things that you hoped for.
11:31And part of this, JJ, you know how I like to roll.
11:34I like to, you know, a big part of my process is what does a team want to happen?
11:39Yeah. Tell us this through their draft capital. They expend the money they spend in free agency, the moves they make, the coaches they hire.
11:46We know what the desired outcomes are in most cases.
11:49And that should be, you know, that should be part of your process is understanding what the teams want, what the coaches
11:54involved have tendencies towards and trying to play into those, uh, those, those tendencies.
11:58Yeah. Well, you just mentioned that we're going to be, we're going to be wrong a lot.
12:03As, as we both know, we've, we've been, you and I have been wrong.
12:06I mean, look, you've been doing it even longer than me, literal thousands of times, right?
12:11Like, yes, like quite literally thousands of last week, last week alone.
12:14Um, so clearly a preseason take that you had going into the season is, is shaky right now after one week of games.
12:20And I'm, I'm curious of what is that preseason take that, you know, probably didn't go right in week one that you're
12:26now actually, again, small sample size caveat, but you are maybe a little bit concerned about moving forward.
12:31I feel like I speak for many fantasy analysts when I say, Jonathan Brooks, come on, man.
12:35You know, we, I think there was a big drive and you saw the push in ADP where he went from, you
12:41know, like what he was going into 10th, eighth to 10th round.
12:44It was a great opportunity, right? Here's a guy that potentially if he turns into the thing, the Panthers drafted him to
12:50be, could be a league winning kind of player.
12:53Yep. Right. Chuba Hubbard has other ideas. Dave Canales is going to ride the hot hand.
12:57We've seen that in the past. And right now it's Chuba Hubbard.
13:00I think this could change, right? But I, I guess, you know, if I want to extend that out, it's all the
13:06ambiguous backfields, investing in the cheaper pieces so far, you know, is not Kenneth Gainwell.
13:10Yeah. Rashad White, like Chris Rodriguez got a lot of work, but he didn't do a lot with it.
13:15And Bachel Tootin to me, look clearly like he's on the verge of doing some things.
13:20So I think some of those where I tend to go for the cheaper options, it's not looking great at the moment.
13:25Yeah, no, that's a, that's a good one to call out.
13:28I do wonder, are you, is there some sense of optimism with the Jonathan Brooks stuff that it was based off of
13:34the, the, you know, the, the groin or whatever, whatever the case, I mean, they were being really weird about what that injury actually was.
13:41So everyone's just like, you know, it's a private parts type injury or whatever, but, but like, like, is there, is there some optimism because of that?
13:48Yeah. There's optimism. Cause it wasn't the knee, right?
13:51You know, when we heard it, the first thing we heard was just, he was dealing with soreness.
13:55And I said, would that be knee soreness? Cause that's not good.
13:59And when I found out it wasn't, I mean, I'm sorry for your groin, sir, but also glad it wasn't your knee.
14:05So yes, there's a great deal of hope. He still has that opportunity to turn into the guy they drafted him to be.
14:11And we saw, we saw it alternate at times.
14:13Last year, Rico Dowdle came on strong, had that what historic three game stretch last year.
14:17And, but, but that's one part of the, part of the concerns is, is that coaching staff is more than willing to go back and forth.
14:24The guy they want. And, and talking over the, since Chuba Hubbard emerged as, you know, as the lead back there a
14:30couple of years ago, the thing that struck me, the word I keep hearing about his running style is violent.
14:36Yeah. Every beat writer I've talked to has mentioned it.
14:38I hear Dave Canales use that word. So they're all getting it from him.
14:42And so Chuba Hubbard offers something that they really like.
14:45And so that's something you have to keep in mind here, but, but Brooks still, you know, it looks like the more well-rounded, more dangerous breakaway guy.
14:52Although Chuba was a track star in college. He fell back in Canada.
14:55So he was a sprinter. So, but I don't think he has the same kind of elusiveness that Jonathan, Jonathan Brooks stuff.
15:01So yes, I'm still holding out hopes there. Yeah, it was kind of interesting.
15:05So I do the becoming a best ball bro podcast series in the feed during the summer, you know, during best ball season.
15:11And one of the things that my co-host, Rich Ryan and I talked about for the final like month of, of the
15:17season or, you know, of the best ball drafting season was the fact that like, so a lot of people listening to
15:23this 90% plus probably didn't play a ton of best ball, or maybe didn't even notice some of the trends that were going on in best ball.
15:30best ball is even more reactionary than what we see in regular season long leagues.
15:34Right. You know, part of it is because the season long is mostly just drafted in August.
15:39So there's not as much of a timeframe where you can see, you know, these players shifted move in ADP so much,
15:45but one of the crazy, crazy things was that like, I, you know, last year I faded Chuba Hubbard.
15:50I think that he's like fine, but it's not someone that I'm going to like be so totally investing.
15:55Cause I don't think that there's like elite talent there with Hubbard.
15:58Right. Right. And the crazy thing in best ball is that yes, we saw the shift as you noted in, in season long drafts, right.
16:05Where, where Jonathan Brooks was going ahead of Chuba and you know, it was, but there was still like some tightness there
16:11from an ADP perspective, you know, it was still dude, best ball, like over on draft Kings, Jonathan Brooks ended up being like around six pick at times.
16:18And Chuba would be going around 11. Like it was wild.
16:21So it was almost reversed. Yes. From the early part.
16:24And so, you know, and look, once it flipped like that in best ball, I'm, I have, I am filthy with Chuba
16:30Hubbard now as well as Jonathan Brooks. So it's a little easier and you're right.
16:34It is super reactionary. Although I was in drafts in August where, you know, Mike Washington Jr.
16:38suddenly leapt into the fourth round, you know, people trying to leverage momentary situations.
16:42And, and I think, look, I love the way you're in drafts and people go up and get their guy.
16:47Yeah. Right. Like you can see people who are drafting like that.
16:51And I love that's the guy I got to watch out for.
16:54That's the girl I got to watch out for.
16:56If that, that person who is, who is out there aggressively moving and who understands that ADP is where people are being
17:02drafted, not when you have to draft them. And I think you see that more prominent in high stakes, more prominent for the San Francisco 49ers.
17:09It just struck me. They're the high stakes players of the NFL.
17:12They see guys they want. They don't care what ADP says.
17:15They just go grab them. Kalon. Fortunately for them, they have a good manager and AKA Kyle Shanahan, because a lot of
17:21those, a lot of those picks historically have not been the best that they've gone after and reached, but it looks like
17:27so far, look, I do think that early on.
17:29And right now I do think that, you know, the Kalon black investment looks fine.
17:33It, you know, I don't know if he's going to be a stud, but I think he looked good in week one.
17:39And then obviously stripling is hurt. We're not going to see him for 10 weeks, if not more, but it looks like
17:45that was, you know, going to, going to work out.
17:48The opportunity seemed to, you know, the fit, the size, the speed, the downfield blocking, all those things that are Shanahan characteristics.
17:54He's looking for. He likes those things. And, and Trey sermon, notwithstanding, you know, you, as you mentioned, not all those guys work out.
18:00Right. So, yeah. So yeah. Ty Davis price, Joe Williams, like we go on and on with some of these 49 shots.
18:06I want to ask then what a preseason take of yours that looks wrong right now from like a result standpoint that you're just not worried about whatsoever.
18:14So before, you know, Jonathan Brooks, you were worried about a little bit, just based on what we saw week one, maybe there's some concern.
18:20But a take that you had or that you felt.
18:23And then week one happens and you, you know, maybe they didn't perform very well, but you're like, ah, they'll be fine.
18:29I think there was a bunch of them, JJ.
18:31I mean, like Brooks would probably be one of them.
18:34I, I still think I'm going to be okay on that.
18:37Right. Like, I don't think it's going to be a disaster.
18:40I still think Kenneth Gainwell is going to have, have some run.
18:43I still think Christian McCaffrey is a league winning player.
18:46I think week one was an anomaly. I think that that's maybe the one.
18:49So I had him ranked as running back three, but honestly, my argument was, if you thought he was going to play
18:5517 games, is there really a big argument that he would, you know, like you could say, I prefer Jameer Gibbs or
19:01Bajon Robinson, but, but, but if you knew he was going to play and have his role, you would have drafted him like that.
19:08I think the role will return. I think that's one that people are going to be very worried about, but maybe some people were dialed back.
19:15I think the Derek Henry, I was, you know, I was not out on him.
19:19So I think people who were out on him are going to be worried.
19:22Jordan Mason, I'm worried about now. Cause he's hurt.
19:25I had him, you know, leaping ahead of Aaron Jones week.
19:28One wasn't promising in that regard. Yeah. As it was, but then the thumb injury, he's going to miss a month.
19:33And that kind of, you know, puts the kibosh on that.
19:36And Quinchon Junkins. I think the player is good.
19:39I think the role is going to be great.
19:41I hope Shador Sanders gets in there. Cause I think that's the only hope this offense is going to get slightly better.
19:47And it's only that I hope. I hope it's cheap.
19:50JJ. I like to indulge myself. Yeah, no, I'm with you.
19:53I mean, the thing with Quinchon, you know, I wasn't very high on him just from a situation standpoint, obviously, you know,
19:59I don't think there was like a ton of analysts that were like pounding the table for Judkins necessarily.
20:04No, this off season. Right price though. He was fine enough.
20:07Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But I will say I'm very interested to see how much receiving work and negative game script work.
20:12He might end up seeing with Dylan Samson out.
20:15Now Raheem Sanders ended up seeing that this past week.
20:17And that's concerning. You know, I was looking at the splits in the second half last week and Sanders basically had like
20:23a 40% snapshot, you know, in the second, which is a big problem for, for Judkins for sure.
20:28So that would be my biggest concern. If I was worried about somebody not, you know, like I was, you know, say
20:34I'm, I'd love to think that Harold fan is going to rebound, but I don't know that he will because that offensive environment.
20:40Right. And also Casey Concepcion gets a lot of those similar kind of targets to him.
20:44And Denzel Boston gives them a viable downfield threat at the same time.
20:48So they don't need to push that. I guess the one that everyone's probably looking at is the chargers had huge expectations
20:54against the Arizona Cardinals, Mike McDaniels first game. I'll remind you.
20:57He got off to a slow start in Miami as well.
21:00So I think, I think the chargers are going to be fine.
21:03Yeah. I mean, does it not feel like the Raiders Patriots game last year, the week one game?
21:08Yeah, a little bit. Kind of feel that way.
21:10I do. I do have a little bit of concern about their like interior offensive line.
21:14That's the problem. Yeah. That's, that's definitely an issue, but yeah, I mean, it's, it's, it's hard to do all the research
21:20we did over, you know, the last five months and, and think that Tyler Bionish is going to be the reason it all collapses.
21:27Yeah. Yeah. It feels like it's just a little bit, you know, sometimes teams show up and sometimes teams don't.
21:32And sometimes there's a bad game. Not only that, but the chargers offense was a lot better when Lad McConkie was active in that game.
21:39When he left, that's when things really, really went to the crapper.
21:42Also, I mean, it goes back to what I said at the top of the program, the NFL would prefer us to
21:48get those kinds of outcomes every week. And they go out of their way to facilitate them.
21:52And, and kudos by the way, to Michael floor, I had zero expectations for the Arizona Cardinals.
21:57I thought they did a really good job and they had a great game plan.
22:01I thought a lot went right for the Arizona Cardinals as much as it went wrong for the chargers.
22:06Yeah. I mean, I was basically lower than market on all four, the big four Arizona guys this year.
22:11I mean, how dare you? Yeah, I know. I know.
22:14I was on love. I, there's no, I don't know if I have any shares of love with that running back 13 price.
22:20I may have got some when he dipped, when the ankle sprain happened.
22:23And now, now the Michael Wilson shares, you will, you'll find him on pretty much every roster.
22:28It was irresistible. I sat there and I'm like, I, you know, Trey McBride ran 120 more routes than any other tight end last year.
22:35Trey McBride ran a hundred more routes than any other tight end since 2016.
22:38I mean, it was crazy last year, the amount of volume he had.
22:42So I'm like, I'd much rather just go the Bowers route than, than McBride.
22:46Me too. Right. Me too. I was the same.
22:48And then McBride sees crazy usage in week one.
22:50So, so naturally, you know, people are blowing me up deservedly.
22:53So I was wrong so far about Trey McBride, but then like, you know, I couldn't really get behind Marvin Harrison jr.
22:59Just because we haven't really seen it. And then with the Michael Wilson stuff, I'm like, this kind of feels like a profile.
23:05That's like Jerry Judy from last year, you know, where, where his splits were so good in a pass heavy offense with
23:11a backup quarterback, Jameis Winston, Jameis Winston couldn't look at anywhere else.
23:15Right. Right. And, and his numbers look so much better when the injuries happen.
23:18Michael Wilson without Marvin Harrison jr. Jerry Judy without Cedric Tillman that season, it was a very, like there was a lot
23:24of parallels there, but you know, the new coaching staff could, could definitely change things and make things better there.
23:30That was the difference between what we saw at the Browns year over year.
23:33But again, I do look at that week. It's funny.
23:36You bring up Arizona. Cause I've kind of had these thoughts in my mind.
23:40I haven't really shared them on the podcast or anything like that.
23:43We look at what happened with Arizona's offense in week one.
23:46No one was like, I mean, Kendrick Bourne was involved, obviously front of the show.
23:50I got to interview him on. He's great. Unbelievable.
23:52I've been in the league with him. I've been in the league.
23:56Does he not have the greatest energy of anyone you've like ever met?
23:59He's a, he's a wild man and he makes some interesting picks.
24:02Yeah. So, so, so here's, here's my like general like vibes take of Arizona.
24:06And this is where perspective. I love late round perspectives.
24:09Cause this is where I can just kind of throw, throw stuff out there and then let someone react or, you know,
24:15let, you know, it's not, it's not like a full fledged, you know, thought out take, but with Arizona in week one,
24:20uh, Trey McBride had a very, very high target share, uh, more like higher than what he even saw last year.
24:26So I don't think that that's going to maintain.
24:28I think that, you know, it was a great game for him, but at the same time, likely a little bit matchup
24:34based and likely just, you know, a good game for McBride, right?
24:38If Kendrick Bourne is involved in some way in this offense, he's not going to see what he did in week one, week in and week out.
24:45Right. That's why we're not recommending him as like a, you know, a pick up in most 12 team leagues, but if
24:51he's involved in some way as kind of their primary slot and the guy that can play in that 11 personnel, that
24:57is probably not good news for the past catchers in that offense in general, because you're going to like, there's already sort
25:02of some limit natural limitation that you're going to see in Arizona.
25:06And if Trey McBride is going to get a decent chunk and then obviously, you know, Michael Wilson might get his, but,
25:12but like Marvin Harrison jr did nothing in week one, right?
25:15Like low target share barely was looked at. That that's not going to happen.
25:18I know I'm not the biggest fan in the world, but that's not going to happen week in and week out.
25:24So my fear with Arizona right now is that we're looking at week one and we're like Trey McBride league winner.
25:30Sure. It might be, he might do the same thing he did last year and just dominate.
25:34That's always a possibility. I'm still a little bit skeptical because I don't know if the route volume, especially if they play
25:40well defensively, if that route volume is going to be there for him.
25:43Right. And so if it goes game by game to some degree from like a game planning standpoint, I'm just envisioning.
25:49And if Kendrick Bourne is involved and then if they get, Jeremiah love more involved as a receiver, you know, as the
25:55season goes on, is it going to be a roller coaster of frustration from a fantasy football perspective with, with these players in this offense?
26:02That's kind of my, my, I'd almost like rather see Arizona have been down by 20 points in the late second quarter.
26:08And then just do that. The formula that worked for them last year from a fantasy perspective, which was, we're going to
26:13throw the ball a lot and we're going to be fine doing so.
26:17And that's going to be great from a fantasy football perspective.
26:20Yeah. I felt like that was for a minute, low key, uh, Jacoby reset slander.
26:24I wasn't going to stand for it, but I think you qualified it.
26:27No, no, I think you qualified it. He's fine.
26:30Yeah. I think you qualified it well there. Um, yeah, I'm like you, I like just in general, I don't want to
26:36pay what I call the historic premium for a player coming off of a season, like Trey McFryde, where he outscored the second tight end by what?
26:43105, 102 points. Yeah. Ridiculous like that. Uh, you know, I didn't want to pay for that, but I felt like the
26:49world saw it the same because Bowers was going ahead of him.
26:52Yeah. And, uh, so, so yeah, I kind of agree with all that.
26:55I mean, Marvin Harrison Jr. has kind of been lost to me.
26:59I think Michael Wilson has been the guy I've been focused on.
27:02He was cheaper in drafts. He was the cheapest piece of this offense, not named Tyler.
27:06I was here, the passing attack. And, you know, there are concerns for me, like, right.
27:10Like Jacoby Brissett doesn't get to go one on 11 this year.
27:14Right. Uh, you know, I mean, that's, he's not going to get that long of a leash, but you know, the start
27:20was great and maybe he's an ideal fit, but I think Michael Wilson in that zero, you know, the Puka Nakua role
27:25seems like it's a, it's a good fit for him.
27:28And also the chemistry he has built in with Brissett, you know, kind of told me, um, but I'm with the Jeremiah love thing though.
27:35I just thought he was ridiculously high priced. I mean, right back 13, uh, when, you know, I mean, Tyler Algier, you
27:41know, maybe they didn't know they were going to get Jeremiah love when they signed to Tyler out here, but yeah, but they've known for a while.
27:48And if you talk to the people who cover that team on a daily basis, all of them will tell you the same thing.
27:54I don't know. Deer is not going away. And we've heard it as recently as the last week.
27:59Michael for saying, yeah, I don't want any, any of my backs getting all the carries.
28:03I mean, nobody's nobody needs to do that. And so we're going to see a split, but, but that said, I mean,
28:09when you watch Jeremiah love, he is going to be very good.
28:13He looks very good. Yeah. Yeah. He's going to be a very good player.
28:16We've seen it. Even, even B. John Robinson rookie season had the really running back 17.
28:21Yeah. Had very frustrating usage. It's, I mean, and we all just sat there and blamed Arthur Smith, but you know, these
28:26guys, if you look at history and you look at how rookie running backs perform versus ADP expectation, it's gotten a little
28:32bit more difficult for them to beat expectation because that expectation just continues rising.
28:36Right. Right. Clyde Edwards, Hilaire had the ADP rocket strap to his backside.
28:40Ashton, genti last year. I mean, the list is long.
28:42And I, I've done a lot of the rookie analysis and it's very clear based on that analysis, that wide receiver is
28:48the position that you want to attack more from a rookie perspective than running backs in season long, because those are the guys that are beating expectation.
28:55Whereas rookie running backs to me are more neutral and in, in totality.
28:59Like when you look at how they've performed against expectation, it's not that they're like bad picks, but they're just not exceptionally good picks either.
29:06So you don't need to seek out. And I think oftentimes the way the market has, has worked recent seasons is that
29:11you get kind of this group thing, hive mind thing going.
29:14And I fell for it a little bit from like a Travion Henderson perspective last year, you know, and I told myself
29:20a story that wasn't rational enough from like a receiving perspective with Travion Henderson.
29:24And I've definitely learned my lesson there, but I felt this similar way with, with Jeremiah love where I'm like, I got
29:30to probably just draft Javante Williams ahead of, you know, or even Brees Hall, right.
29:34If I'm going to go, if I'm going to go that route, yeah.
29:37If I'm going to go that route, didn't really go that route that frequently, just because I wanted the wide receivers in
29:43that three to five round, three to five range.
29:46But it was, it was a very, it's a very interesting team for me to follow because again, like expectation wise, I
29:52mean, even this week, they don't have a high team total, you know, week in and week out.
29:56We're going to see, yeah, we're going to see a sub 20 point team total for Arizona.
30:01And yet they had four guys going in the single digit rounds of these drafts.
30:05And so, yeah, but I mean, to, to your Michael Wilson point, you know, I was too low on him probably.
30:11And, and I, I now like, I like him straight.
30:13Like I had Marvin Harrison jr ranked ahead of them this summer.
30:17Not like I was drafting Marv though. But now I have in my rest season rankings.
30:21I, I, I made the switch. You know, I just, I don't want to, I think there's going to be more of
30:27that roller coaster with Marv than there's going to be with Michael Wilson more than likely, even though I do think blanket
30:33statement, there's going to probably be the roller coaster of the Arizona Cardinals offense in general.
30:37I think you just highlight something we all have to do.
30:40And we all have to be mindful of. I wrote for sports illustrated back in the early two thousands and Peter King was still there.
30:47And Peter King said, you know, like do you, someone asked you root for stories and he goes, or do you root for teams?
30:53He said, no, we root for our stories and we build these narratives.
30:56I mentioned, you know, we tell ourselves these happy stories and sad tales of woe to, to pick or not pick players.
31:02The best analysts, best fantasy players are the ones who know when it's time to divorce themselves from the narratives they've so carefully crafted over time.
31:09And they want to dearly hold onto and root for, you know, patience is a virtue, but also there comes a point
31:15where you just have to realize what you've said or what you've done is wrong and it's not working.
31:20And the faster you acknowledge that and move past it and the better off you're going to be when it comes time for your playoff.
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32:29Void where prohibited. Download the app today. And admittedly, just from like a human nature standpoint, it's a lot easier for me
32:34to be like, yeah, you know, I wasn't really high on Marv entering the season.
32:38And so I can bump them down even more because it's not like I'm holding on.
32:43Like, I do think anyone listening to this should understand that we're all people that are just people that are, that have
32:49a mindset of, of course we want to be right.
32:51You know, of course we're doing this and would love to just get everything correct.
32:55And it's, it's not the easiest thing to always detach yourself from that.
32:59You know, it's, it's, it's not the simplest thing to just be like, Hey, thousands of people that I'm talking to.
33:04I was really wrong about this. I'm a moron, you know, but you have to, as a fantasy.
33:09You just, you have to, I think, you know, I mean, you're so process driven.
33:13And I think that's the key. Like we think of ourselves, you know, we should think of ourselves as part of the audience, right?
33:20Everyone in the audience has made the same mistakes we have.
33:23They understand the mistakes. They are not here to, to, to hammer us for them, but they're here to, to do is
33:29to learn from the processes and how we adjust and adapt and overcome when we're wrong.
33:33And I think is just as important as being right all the time.
33:36Great point. Let's be right all the time. But, you know, I've been doing this 35 years now and, and here's what I've learned.
33:43Predicting the future is tricky business. Yes. Yes. Very tricky.
33:45That's a, that's, that's profound though. I mean, it's a, it's a really good point to make that I've thought about this
33:51too, is like when you go online and you see people that are like, why don't you would not to me necessarily,
33:57but you know, they'll say this to other analysts and you know, they'll, they'll scream and say, why are you only talking
34:03about the things that you got right? Not to think like talk about, or they appreciate when I go out on the
34:09show and I'm like, Hey, I was wrong about this thing.
34:12And they, and I sit back and I'm like, why is it that people are appreciating the humility of it?
34:17Like, should it really matter that much? And I think there's two things going on.
34:21One is that there are obnoxious analysts out there that are just victory lapping all the time.
34:26And so naturally, you know, you want to kind of hit back and be like, this is really obnoxious and you got to admit when you're wrong.
34:33But I think that the other thing is what you just talked about, where people want to hear where things kind of
34:39go South because then you can get better and a good.
34:42And why? Yes. Right. And a great example of that is the, like the Travion Henderson thing.
34:46Henderson thing for me last year is like the thing that I overstated way too much with Henderson was this assumption that
34:52he would see a high target share. But then you look back and I remember halfway through the season, I went back
34:58and I did more research and I'm like, wait a second.
35:01Rookie running backs just naturally just don't see high target shares.
35:04Like they almost never see. And that was the problem that I have with Jeremiah loves assumptions where they were like, Oh, he'll see a 13% target share.
35:12Cause Tyler Algier doesn't catch passes. Well, it's like, I mean, he did it.
35:15Tyler Algier was kind of a complete back coming out of college and then he did and stuff, you know what I mean?
35:22So like, it wasn't as simple as, you know, and I think I'm not saying that this is going to go one way or another.
35:28I was, I wasn't like massively undervalued on love.
35:31I even have them on some teams, but as you noted when he would fall to the right spot, but I do
35:37think that hearing that process, that understanding of where things might've gone South.
35:40That's why I do that episode on the things I got wrong every year, because I want to get better.
35:45I want to be better for people that are listening to the show.
35:49Like I cared about fantasy football and doing well for, as an analyst for other people.
35:53Right. I think I, you know, if people do have, I was like, I'm on the radio at 20 hours a week,
35:59I do live streams and you're answering a lot of questions.
36:02You're giving a lot of advice. I spend every Sunday curled up in a little ball.
36:06You want, you want your outcomes, you know, all the advice you've given people.
36:10But you know, a couple of things just spinning off that, right.
36:13It is, you know, being the first to say you're wrong before everyone else gets a chance is probably your best course of action in this business.
36:20Yeah. You know, and, and, but also using it to explain the why here's what happened.
36:25Yeah. Right. Like, you know, and again, I, I mentioned at the top, you know, the right decisions don't always lead to the right outcomes, right.
36:32That is part of the game. And the variance is something you have to explain.
36:36The volatility is something you have to explain to people.
36:38But like, I think, you know, when I think about it and I answer many, many questions every week, a lot of
36:44questions, and all of them are a variation of one thing.
36:47Am I crazy too? Hmm. Like to some degree or another, right?
36:50The people are, they want permission to do something that they feel is risky or whatever.
36:55And you talk them through it, you know, and I'm not saying, you know, don't know.
36:59That's a, well, I will tell them when it's crazy because sometimes it is, sometimes it is, yeah, sometimes it is, but
37:05mostly, no, it's not crazy, but here's what you need to happen.
37:08Here's what you're, when you go with this, here's what you're expecting to happen.
37:12Here's what the, the outcomes you need to make that thing happen.
37:15And I think, I think, you know, we should give our audience credit.
37:19Like I, I've always felt this, like our audience feels like they could do our job every bit as good as us,
37:24or not for some quirk of fate or something they probably would be.
37:28And they may be, well be right. I mean, if you're playing fantasy football and you're steeped in the subject enough to
37:34be watching podcasts like this, or listening to me on the radio every day, or reading my work at football guys, you're an expert.
37:40Sorry. Just accept it, you know? And, and that doesn't mean like, you know, like we bounce ideas off each other.
37:46We're all out there talking. What do you think about this?
37:49You know, what do you think about that? Or am I too high here?
37:53You know, and you doing the same thing with us is just basically the same thing to me.
37:57So I think it's kind of all a big community, but that, that whole notion that, that, you know, you can be
38:03both right and wrong on a single player in the same season.
38:06That's going to be very helpful. It gives you all these hope, you know, like I'm not wrong yet.
38:12Yes, yes, yes, exactly. I do. I do love the mantra though.
38:15Never wrong just early. You know, that's, that's always a good one.
38:18That's the best. Yeah. All right. Let's get into some individual players.
38:21So these are, these are players who performed well in week one, and I want to see where you're at with these
38:27guys versus other players that might be considered close to them in like rest of season rankings, or, you know, maybe you
38:33drive, they were drafted ahead of these guys literally two weeks ago.
38:36And then this one game might change, or you just felt this way before the season, but it might've changed the way that you're viewing them now.
38:43So let's start with Jalen Coker. And the first, the first player I want to compare Jalen Coker to is Cortland Sutton.
38:49So I have not been a Coker head until very recently.
38:52I'm a newly minted. Welcome. You're welcome. And thank you for some of the input that I got from you as a reader of the data dump.
39:00I can tell you there was some information there this week.
39:02It was great, but also before that, like, you know, small victory lap, a mini victory lap, you know, the pregame shows
39:08on serious, uh, did a couple of hits. And on my show, I went with the, uh, Jalen Coker anytime touchdown, 300, right?
39:14Great matchup. But I started looking at the numbers before that.
39:17I'm going, what have I been missing here? Here's what I've been missing.
39:21And the thing that you pointed out, of course, in the data dump, 16 points per game, going back to the last eight games, including the playoffs.
39:28He's just been a, he's been a vital part of this offense.
39:31If you think, Bryce young is taking a step forward and he may, I mean, he, he alternately steps forward and back
39:37pretty, pretty regularly, but it's been two good games in a row.
39:40Now we go back to the Rams game. So that's a, that's a good sign.
39:44But yeah, I'm in on co I'm in on Coker now.
39:47And, and I think this is a, this is a tough one because I I've been in on Cortland Sutton and I
39:53don't want to overreact to the week one devastation of this offense.
39:57And I think they'll write the ship, but Jalen Waddle is there.
40:00I'm, I'm probably going to stick with Sutton, but this is, this one's very close for me.
40:04I think I'm Coker. I mean, I think my rest season ranks of Coker over Sutton.
40:09So that's, that's you being close. It's very close.
40:11Yeah. Totally get it. How about versus Marvin Harrison, Jr.
40:14I feel like I know where all day long.
40:16Coker all day long. Marvin Harrison, Jr. is dead to me.
40:19I'm sorry. And then here's, here's another interesting one.
40:21What about Chris Godwin versus Jalen Coker? Man, I had a lot of high hopes for Chris Godwin.
40:26I'm probably, I think Coker is probably the better play right now.
40:29Okay. Okay. Let's move on to Isaiah likely. So first off, what do you, it's funny because likely did this literally a year ago, right?
40:36He did. Exactly. I guess Kansas city. Yeah. Yeah.
40:39The difference being obviously that, you know, Mark Andrews was there and there's another tight end that was sort of in the,
40:44in the way, you know, likely his peripherals were definitely there in week one.
40:48There's a lot of data, you know, he was initially in the draft guide as a target.
40:53I had to change it just because the market kind of caught up.
40:56And I was at market. Like I have likely, it's just, I wasn't like so far ahead that I had to call him out.
41:03But like, if you look at previous season slot rate for tight ends and previous season averaged up the target, but slot
41:09rate in particular, there's a lot of predictive value in that.
41:12And likely obviously had a lot of that going for him, but where are you at with likely right now?
41:17And the first guy I want you to compare him to is Harold Fannin.
41:21I'm in on likely right now. And part of this is everything you just said, but also, you know, over the course
41:27of the summer, I will talk to multiple beat writers.
41:29I've probably talked to 10 to 15 beat writers every week.
41:32You know, one-on-one and get to ask them the questions I want.
41:35And every giant beat writer I talked to said, man, the connection here, you guys are going to go nuts over with a dart and likely.
41:42And, you know, and maybe Malik neighbors as he gets up to speed, will be a limiting factor at some point.
41:48That wouldn't surprise me. But, but, but, you know, thinking that Isaiah likely is the second leading receiver on this team is probably pretty reasonable approach.
41:55I like him an awful lot. I, I feel I have way more confidence in his situation that I do in Harold Fannin's right now.
42:02Harold Fannin's a great player, maybe a better player than Isaiah likely, but he's not in a better situation right now.
42:07I'm back. I'm dialed back on him. Yeah. Look, I don't know Isaiah likely's mom.
42:11And I did meet Harold Fannin's mom last year at the fantasy football expo.
42:15so if I were to power rank moms, I would be putting Harold Fannin's mom ahead of likelies.
42:20I do have Isaiah likely ahead of Harold Fannin rest season.
42:23How about Dallas Goddard who also had a great week one versus Isaiah likely?
42:26Yes. Isaiah likely ahead of Dallas Goddard. Dallas Goddard, you know, his 2025 was built on a, on a pile of unexpected
42:32touchdowns and maybe it happens again, but I'm not betting on that.
42:36Yeah. Washington's also been horrible, horrible against tight ends.
42:38All right, then. All right. We're going to, we're going to take a step up then.
42:42Tyler Warren versus Isaiah likely. I'm probably going to stick with Tyler Warren, but it's a, it's a harder decision than it should be.
42:49Yeah, it is. It is. No, I'm not. I don't disagree.
42:52Especially, you know, you get Alec Pierce looking healthy, like, you know, he had a limited snap share, but he was still getting better.
42:58Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of players there that they got to, got to get the ball to with Keenan Allen there now.
43:05So they don't got to get the ball to Keenan Allen or Josh down.
43:09I mean, they can, but they don't have to, it's going to be with the money.
43:13He tells us it's going to Alec Pierce for sure.
43:15That's another one of those where the desired outcome is, is painfully clear because Michael Pittman is not there.
43:21And, and Alec Pierce is very rich. And if you have hopes for this offense though, I think part of what needs
43:26to happen here is we need to see some semblance of the offense.
43:30We saw last year when Daniel Jones was healthy.
43:32I think the first eight games, he averaged what 32 points a game.
43:36And it slid down, you know, after the fibula thing to 28 points and it was still good.
43:41Jonathan Taylor was running back to during that first stretch.
43:43And, and Warren was what it was tight end for when that offense was hitting on all sellers.
43:48I'd like to give that a chance to see if it could happen again, but it's again, closer than it should be.
43:54Yeah, no, no, I'm with you. I have Tyler Warren ahead of likely, but it is, it is, you know, likely definitely
44:00like it's one of those things where there are players like Parker Washington's another one.
44:04Well, actually we can talk about them right now.
44:06Parker Washington's on this list, but Parker Washington's one of those players where, you know, I was high on them entering the
44:12season and, you know, ahead of market. I really liked what, you know, there were trends that definitely favored what he did
44:18second half of last year and how that translates the next year, all of that.
44:22Right. But when you look at my like rest of season rankings, he saw a big jump from where he was in my redraft rankings.
44:29And some might call that irrational, but to me, it's, it's sort of like a more obvious extreme example than the Isaiah
44:35likely one where we have these ideas in our head of like, okay, well, if this thing happens, like if, if Jacksonville
44:41runs heavier, has, has heavier personnel, more tight ends, fewer wide receivers on the field, but Parker Washington is one of those wide receivers.
44:47It's not rotating out as much. Then all of a sudden you can see a wide receiver one season happening for Parker Washington.
44:53Right. And from a usage standpoint in week one, we more or less saw that happen.
44:58You know, they, they ran so heavy. They had a lot of two tight, like a lot more two or fewer wide receivers on the field.
45:04And then Washington did his thing. So I'm curious if you feel the same way about like, you know, making that jump
45:10based on one game, because the priors were at least there.
45:13And you just wanted a year over year confirmation to some degree, or if you are still a little bit like just a little bit where, understandably.
45:21So like it's, it's still risky to be like all in on Parker Washington.
45:24There's still a risk involved in doing that. But to me, I was pleasantly surprised, not surprised, pleasantly satisfied, satisfied, let's say by what happened in week one.
45:32All of that. Yes. And all, all the, you know, the role going back to last year is super important, but also
45:38the things I've been hearing all summer long. Of course, my co-host on serious Mike Dempsey is in the building.
45:43He's working there every day. If you wanted to draft Parker Washington and you draft with Mike Dempsey, you better get up early.
45:49Okay. He's been all over. And I think the guys that cover, you know, the group of people to cover the team
45:55has been all on this as well. Look, this is an ascendant offense.
45:59We saw last year, Trevor Lawrence dominate the last eight games of the season is quarterback one.
46:03He has all the pieces, but he doesn't seem to agree with all of them.
46:07Yeah. Brian Thomas jr. So Parker Washington to me looks like the guy that they've been trying to pay.
46:12All the signs are there. Everything, the numbers that you mentioned, all the narratives tie it together.
46:17I think he's right there. I'm just curious. Where do you have him when you're rest of season rankings?
46:22I think he's like a high end wide receiver too right now, like in that like 14 area for me or something.
46:28So, so I was going to, you know, we're going to talk bold predictions here.
46:32I know. So he, my bold prediction was Parker Washington wide receiver one at the end of the season.
46:37I'm going to let that go. I'm going to throw it out now and do a different one.
46:42But, but I think, I think that's possible. I, I truly believe that he is capable of that in this offense, right?
46:48That's part of the equation is look at where this offense is going, where it's been and where it's going.
46:53It seems to still be on the rise and Liam Cohen in year two.
46:57I mean, they're just tweaking, fine tuning, getting things better.
46:59I like a lot of what I see there.
47:02All right. So then I'll ask you a few players of who you would like, you know, Parker Washington versus this guy.
47:08We'll start with Garrett Wilson. I'd still like Garrett Wilson more.
47:11Okay. How about Devante Smith? Probably still Devante Smith.
47:13And then here's one that, that will break people's brains.
47:16Drake London. I'll take right now. Parker Washington. Yeah.
47:18I think I'm so until Michael Penix is back in the mix until we see Michael Penix play.
47:23Once Michael Penix is back in what we saw last year over the nine games, they played together was phenomenal.
47:28Exactly. Right. The workload. Like I talked about it at the top, you, you know, what are we drafting?
47:33Well, we're drafting roles and volume. That's Drake London with Michael Penix is the epitome of roles and volume for a wide receiver.
47:40So, so yeah, so to be my, it'll be Drake London.
47:42If when Michael Penix is back, you know, we're, we're still mad at Anthony Richardson for tapping his helmet.
47:48And I just heard Michael Penix telling me, yeah, I'm not right.
47:51I'm not quite ready yet. Coach. No, not yet.
47:53I remember doing some looking into the splits with Michael Penix.
47:56Michael Penix and Drake London last year on like a per route run basis and such.
48:00And it's actually just wild. It is how insane.
48:03Drake London has been with Michael Penix and without Michael Penix throughout his career.
48:07Like it's just, it's literally night and day. So we are, if you, if you're a Drake London bag holder, if you
48:12have them on your team, you gotta be just crossing your fingers and praying to the fantasy football gods that Michael Penix
48:18is able to play sooner rather than later. Cause it makes a dramatic, dramatic difference.
48:22But yeah, like looking at my rest season rankings right now, I have a Parker Washington, sitting at wide receiver 14 rest of season.
48:29He's right below Devante Smith. I do have, I have him over Garrett Wilson rest of season.
48:33Okay. Yeah. If you want to be even more bullish in that, totally understand if you're a little bit scared, like I
48:39think this can go in a lot of different directions.
48:42I just, I'm at the point where I'm believing in the talent and believing in what we're seeing.
48:47See, I have a, I have a problem. And everyone who listens to me knows this.
48:51If you're not going to make me write down the list and show it to you, I'm going to fit 30 guys in my top 12.
48:58Yeah. Right. Right. Exactly. Right. Yes, exactly. That's what, when people come back and they're like, why do you have this guy ranked right here?
49:05And I'm like, well, tell me who you want to have ranked ahead or below them.
49:09You know, there's only that many spots. I can't do it.
49:12Right. Right. How do you turn 16 games, injury reports, team notes, betting lines, and matchup trends into one clear weekend preview.
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50:14Void where prohibited. Download the app today. How about David Montgomery?
50:17So you mentioned him a little bit earlier. So I'm curious where you're at with Montgomery.
50:21And then we'll, we'll talk about some other guys to compare him to.
50:25I've been all in the day that they traded for him.
50:28I wrote, he's a solid running back to with running back one weeks built into the built in, because there's going to be red zone luck.
50:35And we saw it week one. I don't think any of that changes.
50:38There was a brief period. So the narrative was built all off season and demand.
50:42They are building this offense, a smash mouth offense around Montgomery, a guy they think can do it all as a receiver,
50:48as well as a, as a runner. And, and they're going to lean into that defense and all those things.
50:53Then we got a little bit of a, a little bit of a Woody Mark spike there in late August.
50:59And it made people nervous. I don't know if it, I'm trying to remember if it dropped in Montgomery's ADP a little,
51:05he was pretty steady around running back 19 or 20.
51:07I felt like that was a really good price for him.
51:10Not a huge discount, but about the right price.
51:13And you would probably have weeks where you felt like you really got a great deal.
51:17I think that's right where he's at. Yeah. I mean, look every week for my draft guide, I would pull my rankings versus ADP, right?
51:24So consensus ADP, I'd, I'd, I'd take it from ESPN, Yahoo and CBS.
51:27And then that would kind of dictate if I should call out a guy as a target or avoid.
51:32And every week I'm like, why is David Montgomery like RB 25 on this platform?
51:36Or why is he, you know, like it was a little bizarre because even if you weren't overly bullish on the talent or over, it was very clear.
51:44There was at least some situation there. I am, you know, he did see like week one, Woody marks did play a
51:50decent amount of snaps to be fair, but it does seem like, you know, Montgomery is going to at least be the goal line guy.
51:56And like you said, we should feel good about just their general philosophy.
52:00So let's go one by one here. David Montgomery versus Travis H in and week one, or the artist formerly known as ETN.
52:06If they're going to turn this into a three-way split, the Saints, Alvin Kamarian and the great Kendra Miller.
52:11Let's not overlook the great Kendra Miller. The Saints told us what they wanted.
52:15Yeah. With $13 million a year over the next four years, Travis H in, they're not acting like that, but also I had concerns coming in.
52:22That was not a good run blocking unit last year.
52:24And Travis H and whatever success he's had, like, he's not a powerful guy.
52:28He's not a, like a bulldozer at the, at the, at the end, at the goal line, any of those things.
52:34So I have concerns here. I would probably feel more comfortable with the consistency of David Montgomery.
52:38Yep. I have Montgomery ahead right now too. This one's, this one's more difficult for me.
52:43Bucky Irving versus David Montgomery. After week one. So it's funny.
52:46Cause I was not drafting Bucky Irving. I wasn't very high on Irving either.
52:49That was probably one of my big, if I'm looking back at like, you know, I made him like a soft fit.
52:55He wasn't like a hard fade for me, but even, you know, I had him in the same tier with like Montgomery and stuff, but I was concerned.
53:03The only thing that I'm still waiting to see is what happens when Sean Tucker's active.
53:07Correct. And there's a three way split there. I like, we'll see, like it was a great matchup week one though.
53:13I know the Bengals made all kinds of improvements and added the middle of the defensive line, Allen and Lawrence and all that.
53:19but, but still it, you know, last year it was one of the most, generous defenses to running backs.
53:24And so I feel like maybe Bucky Irving caught a break.
53:27So I was out on him in draft season, but I, I do a weekly column in and out where I try
53:33and leverage the projections and pick guys to overperform.
53:35And he was one of the guys I picked over perform because of the matchup.
53:39And in the early season, I think he can handle it.
53:42Like, you know, and again, I don't, I'm not one of those people says, Oh, 200 pound running backs.
53:47Can't, can't be great. Jameer Gibbs would argue they can.
53:50And so Bucky Irving's rookie year would say the same, but, but he's like, what?
53:54192 pounds. Yeah. Built for that full load. And so they bring in these other, bring back, bring in Kenneth Gainwell, who
54:00was what running back seven from week 11 on last year.
54:03I mean, you know, he was pretty, pretty productive player.
54:05Um, it hadn't been before that. So I get it, but, but yeah, I had a lot to reason style back, but
54:11I think week to week, there are going to be huge games for Bucky Irving when the matchup favors them and maybe
54:17the circumstances, but in general, I feel like David Montgomery would be again, the more consistent play.
54:22And then I'm really curious about your take based on what we talked about earlier with Jeremiah love versus David Montgomery.
54:27I think, you know, here, I'll fall back on that.
54:30Well, it depends on your roster construction. There you go.
54:33The fantasy analyst cop out baby. Uh, talking to some of the people that Howard balls has been covering the NFL for
54:39a thousand years, like me and talk to him a fair amount.
54:42And, you know, like he said, at some point he said, yes, there's going to be Tyler out here, but, but Jeremiah love is, is a different level.
54:49It's like something, uh, Vinnie Bonson, you or told me about when, when, when, uh, Ashton Gentie got her, Mike Washington is not Ashton Gentie, right?
54:56So there are, there are players that are different level.
54:59David Montgomery is not Jeremiah love. He's not at that.
55:02It's not at that tier. I think the roles are what sets them apart.
55:05So this one's really close to me. I'm probably still going to lean Montgomery for now until I see the, the roles
55:11normalize for love and see what, see where he ends up.
55:14Yeah. I think all three are, are interesting. Like I have, I would rank the four that we said just to, for, you know, additional context.
55:21Cause I do think it's just interesting. Like there's no right answer here.
55:25I would go love Irving Montgomery, HN with Irving and Montgomery, Bucky and Montgomery being like very, very close, you know, I think that's good rest of season.
55:32I'm thinking more in the moment and probably that's, you know, skewing me a little bit.
55:36Just, I feel more comfortable with where Montgomery's at in the moment, but looking, if I step back, I think you probably have it about right.
55:43Yeah. Yeah, for sure. All right. Let's do quickly.
55:46We already talked about Chuba Hubbard, but I am curious if you would go, let's look at this from a rest of season lens.
55:52Chuba or Blake Corum. Chuba. Okay. Chuba or Quinchon Judkins.
55:55Chuba. Chuba or Jadarian Price. Chuba. at some point, I mean, does he not get some goal line?
56:00Red zone work. Does he not like at some point is George Alani become less a thing in those situations?
56:05I would like to lean price here. Yeah, I would lean price there too.
56:09I think the Judkins one is interesting. I'd probably, yeah, I'm probably Judkins just because there's the, the hope of that belt.
56:15Like I'm still worried about Jonathan Brooks digging into Chuba Hubbard's work.
56:18Sure. You know, like I still think that true thing.
56:21All right. And then the last one is Deandre Swift who also had a big week one game.
56:25So we'll go Deandre Swift versus Kyron Williams. Deandre Swift over the world.
56:29No, that's a very close one. I mean, like, so I'm a huge Deandre Swift guy.
56:33I've been howling about the, the prospects all year and realizing last year was again, another performance.
56:38So running back 14 performance, heavily reliant on touchdowns.
56:40Yeah. Glad that he got three to start the season.
56:43But I feel like there's room for more for him as a receiver.
56:46If you look back to his last year in Detroit with Ben Johnson, he had a 70 ish targets.
56:51I want to say if they can bump that number up again this year and also let him run, I think he's
56:57going to have a very good season. And I'm so I'm probably pushing the envelope on this one and, and overstating the case here.
57:04If I say Swift, so I will say not Swift.
57:06Okay. How about, how about Swift or Brees Hall then?
57:09I've been in a Brees Hall is another one there.
57:12They're so dead. I think I had them 13 and 14 coming into the season.
57:16Yeah. So still, I mean, probably. What about, what about Amari and Hampton versus Deandre Swift?
57:20Are you, are you panicking, hitting that panic button with, with Hampton after one week?
57:24No, anybody's entire finish. So I think they'll get things straightened out, but there's reasons for concern there.
57:29I, you know, part of their concern with Swift is off.
57:32Obviously Kyle, when on guy and they're probably getting into games where they throw the ball a heck of a lot.
57:37I think, I hope he still has a role in there.
57:40I probably lean Hampton here too. All right. A few more things before I let you go.
57:45I want a buy candidate and a sell candidate for you, from you after one week of games.
57:50I don't like to sell anybody. I'm like a, not an early season mover.
57:54Yeah. If I was selling right now, I'd probably be selling like a, maybe a Chuba Hubbard.
57:58If I thought I could get away with it or Bucky or Ring.
58:02One, one of the ambiguous backs. Yeah. I look Chuba, Chuba was the sell in 15 transactions this week.
58:07So I'm with you, you know, I haven't read that yet, but it's in my inbox.
58:11Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I agree. I agree with the, with the Chuba.
58:14Is there anyone that you're, that you would aggressively be buying right now?
58:18Yeah. I'm probably going to be aggressively buying. Like if someone's willing to give up on Jalen Waddle, I'll be looking for guys like that.
58:25I think the Denver offense is going to be way better than it ended up.
58:29JK Dobbins is a guy that I've been in on all year.
58:32I think they're going to run the ball better.
58:34I still think he's the lead piece there. I don't know that I'm going to be out actively trying to acquire him, but I don't have concerns.
58:41I would be trying to acquire like a Waddle.
58:44However, I think I think anybody in, in Los Angeles, if anyone gets nervous and drops anybody in Los Angeles, Clinton Johnston
58:50would be like, I would love to be able to pick up Clinton Johnston.
58:53Yeah. Yeah. I like those call outs. All right.
58:56One more thing. Give me a bold prediction. It could be, it could be moving forward or just for week two.
59:02Well, you know, dealer's choice here. It was, well, Parker Washington and wide receiver one week too, for sure.
59:07But, but probably for the rest of the season, but I already kind of said that one.
59:11So I'm going to go with Matthew golden leading the green Bay Packers and receptions this year.
59:16I love that. I mean, I, I feel like I've been out.
59:19So my journey with Matthew golden has been very interesting.
59:22I wasn't, wasn't really, you know, I was maybe like at market with him or so during draft season.
59:27So I have him on some teams, not like overwhelmingly.
59:29So I didn't really like him as a prospect coming out for sure.
59:33So I wasn't really high on him last year, but that week one, I'm very high on the Packers passing it.
59:38They can't run block at all. And obviously they have less of a rotation with their wide receivers.
59:43Jordan love is a good quarterback and he's been really good in like EPA per play and such over the last couple of years.
59:50I just think there's a very real chance. We see more volume and passing volume in that offense in general, Matthew golden's
59:56usage in week one, his, we have a expected fantasy points formula that Brandon Godula had built for late round fantasy football.
60:02Matthew golden's expected PPR points in week one was second at wide receiver behind only Amin Ross, same Brown.
60:07And it's wild. I'm doing my weekly rankings. I'm like 10 wide receiver spots ahead of the market with Matthew golden.
60:12My rest of season rankings. I think he's like a firm high end wide receiver three right now.
60:17If not higher, you know, I'm thinking a wide receiver too.
60:20Yeah. Yeah. I mean like when you look at like where, cause like right now in my, my rest of season, like
60:26I have him right next to like Devante Adams, Roma dunze, you know, like in that area of wide receivers, pretty deep.
60:32So it's, you know, it's tough to like really push them up into like the, the, the legit, you know, like the,
60:38like I saw a waddle ahead of them for instance and such, but I like to say wide receiver gives us room for error, right?
60:44Like, you know, it is so deep that if you miss on a guy, there's going to be someone there to pick up the slack.
60:51But I don't like, I don't think we're missing on love or golden.
60:55And, and I think, you know, again, listening to talking to the beat writers there, this was something that they like three,
61:00four different beat writers all said the same thing independently.
61:03Just asking who's going to leave the seam and receive it.
61:06It's going to be Matthew golden. And I like, if I thought there was a quarterback in Cleveland, I would be super
61:12edgy and say something really cool about Denzel Boston.
61:14Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I still think that, that him and Concepcion could be fine from like a volume standpoint, if
61:20they hit those negative game scripts pretty frequently. So we'll see there, but yeah, the, the golden stuff was, was interesting preseason because it was very clear.
61:27He was going to get an opportunity, right? A chance to prove it.
61:31And the priors that I had were, he didn't do anything year one.
61:34He didn't look very great in year one either.
61:37And his prospect profile wasn't very strong. And it's very rare to see that kind of profile then blow up in year two.
61:43And like really, you know, ironically we did see it from like, it's kind of like a Devante Adams kind of trajectory, right?
61:49Where it was just like horrible at first. And then it kind of comes to, it really came together for him.
61:55And so typically we don't see this profile do well, nine out of 10 times.
61:59You know, maybe even 95 out of a hundred times, but at the same time, it was very clear.
62:04He was going to get that shot. Right. And this is where we get to factor in what the team's desired outcome.
62:10exactly. They told us last year when they drafted him in the first round, something they hadn't done with a wide receiver in my entire adult lifetime.
62:17Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, it's a, it's a, a player that I didn't think I'd be sitting.
62:22Every show, I feel like this week I've said something about guys, this Matthew golden thing looks like it's for real.
62:27And the market is not reacting in a way where it's for real.
62:31And I, I, I'm very bullish on what is, I mean, I loved Christian, Christian Watson entering the year and it was
62:37way higher than marking on him, but the golden stuff looks like it's, it's very, very legitimate.
62:41And so I love that you, you called him out.
62:44Um, but Bob, this was great. I always love chatting with you.
62:47You bring so much wisdom to this, to this show that, that lacks it.
62:51So, uh, if you could let everyone know where they can find you and all this, the great stuff you're working on
62:57this season, you could mostly find me reading JJ Zachary's work.
63:00I'm a avid consumer. You can catch me. Well, you can't miss me on Sirius XM radio.
63:04I'm on fantasy radio Monday through Friday, eight to 10 Sunday morning, the pregame show 11 to one with Jeff Manns Saturday
63:10nights, three hours on the fantasy channel and NFL radio.
63:13It's a simulcast people. It's all technological. Uh, and so I'm there all the time at football guys, my weekly columns, a
63:19fantasy notebook out every Thursday coming out today. I talk a lot about the feature backs that we, discussed earlier, my in
63:25and out column on Saturdays, uh, and my live stream on Saturdays.
63:28I love having the people come talk to me.
63:30I spend an hour ask anything. We just sit around and discuss just like what we did here today.
63:35Uh, just kind of talk about situations, circumstances and what we think in my, on the, on the hot seat videos, uh, come out every Wednesday.
63:42Awesome stuff. Uh, again, really appreciate it. All of you guys, uh, if you haven't checked out late round.com and checked out
63:48the new members hub, et cetera, et cetera, do that.
63:51Go to late round.com. Otherwise everyone. Thanks for tuning in.
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