The Show: Bounce-Back Candidates, Running Back Rooms, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 3 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 9, 2026
Published
Thu, July 9, 2026
37
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
Ashton JeantyKenneth Walker IIITucker KraftBrian Thomas Jr.Chris RodriguezJordan MasonJustin JeffersonLamar JacksonTrey McBrideAaron JonesAJ BarnerD.J. MooreDallas GoedertDavid Montgomery
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeRole0:32
Jones is an aged running back who may not be able to carry a big workload and will mainly spell and eat into pass downs in the Vikings backfield.
Insight pageAJ Barner
PositiveBreakout0:27
Barner is listed as a breakout candidate tight end, with Seattle expected to throw more this season.
Insight pageAshton Jeanty
NegativeProjection0:43
Jeanty played 2.4 PPR points per game below expectation last year, making him a bounce-back candidate.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:44
Jeanty played 2.4 PPR points per game below expected last year due to a 30th-ranked PFF run-blocking offensive line, but with Colton Miller and Tyler Linderbaum returning, the analyst expects the line to improve significantly and projects Jeanty as RB4 in market score, available at RB8 ADP on some platforms.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:45
Jeanty is available at RB8 ADP on some platforms and the analyst is 'in at that cost,' placing him in the same tier as James Cook and Jonathan Taylor.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveProjection0:53
Thomas played 6.5 points per game below expected last year despite unchanged air yards per game, failing to convert splash plays like he did as a rookie, posting a 7% first downs per route run rate and 1.50 yards per route run, but the analyst is 'more neutral' given the positive environment and his rookie success.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:53
Thomas saw his target share decline from about 25% to 19% last season, though the analyst notes he was injured and the environment remains positive.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
PositiveRole0:21
Beat reporters expect Chris Rodriguez to carve out a big role, though the analyst expresses skepticism about the narrative surrounding him.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:22
Rodriguez has only 6 receptions across 3 NFL seasons and does not catch passes, limiting his fantasy upside compared to pass-catching backs; the Jaguars' pursuit of JK Dobbins suggests Rodriguez was a backup plan, not a priority.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeProjection0:52
Moore has posted a sub-7% first downs per route run rate in back-to-back seasons and been below 1.5 yards per route run in back-to-back seasons, both very poor numbers for a top-30 wide receiver, making the analyst 'out' despite the hypothetical fit with Josh Allen.
Insight pageDallas Goedert
PositiveDepth Chart0:11
Dallas Goddert may benefit from Eli Stowers falling behind in the tight end pecking order for the Eagles.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveValue0:18
David Montgomery is ranked three spots above season-long market ADP, making him a value pick despite not being a high-ceiling talent, as he's projected to get significant volume in Houston's improved offensive line.
Insight pageDemond Claiborne
PositiveRole0:32
Claiborne is an undersized, speedy receiving back similar to Aaron Jones' archetype, drafted to fill a pass-catching role rather than as a bell-cow back.
Insight pageEli Stowers
NegativeDepth Chart0:11
Eli Stowers appears to be way behind the pecking order at tight end, dropping significantly in best ball drafts, though he remains a viable late-round dart in redraft when paired with a Jalen Hurts stack.
Insight pageErick All
PositiveBreakout0:26
All is a big, explosive tight end who out-snapped Tanner Hudson in 5 of 9 games last year and could see increased role coming off injury; he's a deep-cut breakout candidate for dynasty leagues.
Insight pageGunner Olszewski
PositiveBreakout0:26
Olszewski is listed as a breakout candidate for the Packers at tight end.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveRole0:31
Per insider reports, this is Jordan Mason's backfield with Aaron Jones mainly spelling and eating into pass downs.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:32
Mason is ranked slightly ahead of Aaron Jones in half-PPR and could easily walk into 200 carries this year given the Vikings' improved offense and better game scripts with Kyler Murray.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection0:56
Jefferson played 6.1 PPR points per game below expected last year due to poor quarterback play and conversion issues despite maintained usage, but the analyst is 'neutral' because Jefferson has been a top-10 ADP wide receiver since his rookie year and only underperformed ADP once (last year), and his yards per route run falling below 2.5 for the first time is likely not a skill decline.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:57
With Kyler Murray stepping in as quarterback, the analyst is 'totally fine with drafting Justin Jefferson this year' and likes the Minnesota offense, noting that Kyler has supported elite receivers like DeAndre Hopkins in the past.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveProjection0:46
Walker played about two points per game below expected last year due to backfield splitting with Zach Charbonnet, and while he faces easier competition in Kansas City, the analyst is 'more neutral' because the key concern is whether Kansas City will deploy him in pass-catching situations to elevate him from RB10 to RB6 range.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:48
Walker hasn't been above an 8% target share in all but one season of his career, and both Amari DiMarcado and Emmitt Johnson are pass-catching backs, which creates concern about his receiving role in Kansas City.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:48
Walker goes at the one-two turn on DraftKings in best ball but is outside the top 12 running backs on almost every season-long platform, making him more attractive in season-long formats at RB15 than in best ball.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
PositiveProjection0:12
The Late-Round model liked Kenyon Sadiq more than Eli Stowers during draft season, and while he hasn't found the field due to hernia surgery, he remains a prospect with comparable production and athleticism to Stowers.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
PositiveRole0:14
Kirk Cousins took all first-team reps in Raiders offseason practices and is likely to start Week 1, though he's expected to be benched by Week 6-10 when the team becomes uncompetitive.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection0:50
Jackson played 4.3 points per game below expected last year, but the analyst views it as an outlier season and expects him to bounce back to 6-7 rushing points per game (down from his 9-point peak) with a new offensive coordinator and no hamstring issues.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:51
The analyst has been drafting Lamar in best ball and believes the gap between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in ADP is too wide, suggesting Jackson offers value relative to his draft position.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
NegativeProjection0:54
Golden had a 1.35 yards per route run rate and 6% first downs per route run rate in his rookie season, and combined with a questionable prospect profile, the analyst is 'mostly out' on him despite a playoff touchdown.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveProjection0:55
Barkley played 3.5 points per game below expected last year, largely due to poor offensive line play, but the analyst is 'kind of neutral' because while there's fear his explosiveness has declined (1.4% 20-plus yard run rate, worst of his career), his base usage actually improved year-over-year compared to his Super Bowl-winning season.
Insight pageTrayvon Henderson
PositiveRole0:36
There's a shot for Henderson to earn more work versus Ramond Ray Stevenson in camp, but he may have a shorter leash than desired; the analyst is neutral on a Henderson breakout this year.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeProjection0:30
McBride is scary this year because he ran so many routes last year; if his routes regressed to the second-most in the league (Travis Kelce's level), he would have scored 3.5 fewer PPR points per game based on his fantasy points per route run.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:59
The analyst is 'not even high on McBride at all this year versus the market' but drafted him five spots below ADP in a Scott Fishbowl league because the scoring settings favor tight ends.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveInjury0:29
Craft might be ready for training camp, not just week one, which would be welcome news for Packers and fantasy fans.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:29
Craft is ranked as tight end 5 right now, right after the big four, with potential to be George Kittle-like with excellent yards per target and after-the-catch ability.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:30
The Packers often don't get their pass catchers enough routes, which is a downside risk for Craft's fantasy production.
Insight pageTyrone Tracy
NegativeRole0:16
Tyrone Tracy has an undefined role in the Giants offense and may not be the RB2, with concerns about his efficiency as a pass catcher at the NFL level despite being a wide receiver convert.
Insight pageWoody Marks
NegativeRole0:18
Woody Marks is being used as a third-down pass-catching back and kickoff returner, not as a bell cow, with concerns about his durability as he frequently ended up in the blue tent last season.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:50You're about to listen to the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube.
0:55If you'd like to catch the show live this off-season, you can head to the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, youtube.com slash atLateroundFF.
1:02We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode.
1:07Welcome in. Welcome in. David Kitchen, a.k.a. Draft Guide Formatter with JJ Zacharysen, a.k.a.
1:11Draft Guide Do-It-All-er, basically. I just hope that it comes out when people read it, how much time was spent on this thing.
1:19Oh, man. The amount of messages I've sent kitchen at like one in the morning over the last month has been pretty crazy.
1:26Happened last night with Brandon. I was sending him some messages last night.
1:30I sent you message last night at actually 1.30.
1:33It was 2.30 your time. Yeah. And it's not me saying I need you to respond right now, but it's like this
1:40is something we got to deal with tomorrow morning.
1:43Right? And it's just top of mind for me to think about right now.
1:48And I hope it comes out looking good in the end and that people appreciate it.
1:53And that's how it's been historically. And I really appreciate that.
1:56But yeah, I mean, look, it's a couple days away.
2:00If you pre-ordered, it'll be out tomorrow night. We do that all the time.
2:04It's not even like a secret anymore. Oh boy.
2:07That's out of the bag. Yeah. So it'll be out July 9th night.
2:11Right? So be prepared for that. I don't know what time exactly.
2:15We technically are not finished yet. There's still some stuff that I want to add and change, you know, before, you know, that that shot clock expires.
2:24But and the shot clock, it's like a rebound.
2:27The shot clock will reset every week because we're sending a update every week.
2:31We're just getting all the offensive boards. There's what?
2:34Nine of them. Something like that updates. So, well, yeah, we I'm excited for it all to happen.
2:40You know, I'm I'm not having to destroy myself at this point anymore, which feels good.
2:45And I got vacation next week, which I'm excited about.
2:48So we will not have a late round show next week.
2:52We should throw that out there that we're not going to do the show next week.
2:57You know, gotten got some stuff done today. Got my ears cleaned.
3:01You ever get your ears cleaned? Oh, I thought you were gonna say you got your ears lowered because we got some
3:08people in the chat saying your your fresh cut is looking good.
3:12I know. I've needed a haircut for a while, for a while.
3:16What did you say? You got your ears cleaned?
3:19Yeah, I get my ears cleaned once a year, basically.
3:22Like where they put water in and like. Yeah, but this this is this is a much this I go to an
3:29ENT once a year to get my earwax taken out because my ear canals are so awful.
3:35And so I did that. I did it today because I'm about to go on vacation.
3:40I can't be underwater with my kids playing in the pool and in the beach and at the beach and in the
3:47ocean with earwax all through my ear. All the things I thought would be discussed on this show.
3:53That was not one of them. And then I came home.
3:56This is my morning. Talk to Brandon a little bit about some market score stuff.
4:01Got my ear. We'll drop the kids off first.
4:04Talk to Brandon about some market score stuff. Went and I got my ears cleaned like a freaking dog and then got
4:11home and did a did a hit ride on Peloton.
4:14I'll tell you what I did on Peloton today.
4:17Okay, there were I was in a class a hit class hitting hills class.
4:22So I just want to do a 20 minute like all out kind of sprint type class.
4:27Right. And I was in there with 81 other people.
4:30And at the end, I'm like, there's one person ahead of me and I can't let this happen.
4:36And so the final 40 seconds of this ride, I pass this person in terms of output and I high five them as I did it.
4:45Oh, yeah. Yeah. It's all pretty good. I like I needed it.
4:49I needed a W like that. You know, I just needed it.
4:52It's kind of petty. All right. So we did talk about the draft guide.
4:57I mean, there is 200 and we I formatted some stuff last night, JJ.
5:01So it's not 275. It's 274. 274 pages. Actually, it's 272 now because I removed another couple of things.
5:08Okay, but it might be added. It'll probably be around 274.
5:11And again, we're going to be adding. There will be an update tracker within the guy where you can see all the updates that are being in there.
5:20And then, you know, as far as how you can get it, you can purchase it at late run dot com or
5:27you can go to late run dot com and get the all access membership.
5:32And that includes a draft guide, which will be in your downloads section in the member hub.
5:37One thing one thing I want to add, I think we should shout this out right now with the all access stuff
5:44because we've gotten so many people asking questions about it.
5:48And I think it's just easy to blanket statement it here when you sign up for the all access tier, you get it for 365 days.
5:56It's not a season to season type thing. It's not that you get it and it ends January 1st because it's a new year.
6:04So if you sign up today, you will have it for 365 days, which means you get the prospect guide next year.
6:11That's part of it. And you would hypothetically potentially get a draft guide again next year, but you wouldn't get any of the updates, et cetera, et cetera.
6:20So it's like you got to, you know, you can.
6:23Unless you if you canceled is what you're saying.
6:26Right. If you cancel. But hopefully you wouldn't. Right.
6:29Hey, that's that's that point. Yeah, it's what, you know, people could theoretically, you know, quote unquote game the system by.
6:36I'm not going to be purchasing an all access now to try to get the draft guide next year, but it's up
6:43to us to make sure they continue getting value.
6:46Right. Exactly. I'm not concerned about that. I'm the other thing, too, is that people are like, hey, I want to sign
6:53up for all access, but I already bought the prospect guy when it was prospect guide season.
6:58Well, just so you guys know, you get next year's prospect guide if you sign up right now for all access because it's a one year thing.
7:07So you would get the prospect guide for next year.
7:10It's all part of it. You would obviously get the prospect guide for this year, which some already have had.
7:17But you are buying into the prospect guide for next year as well.
7:21It's not that you're just getting the 2026 version of those guys.
7:25Correct. I want to give a shout out to our sponsor draft kings.
7:29They have the draft one. Get one. I mean, with July, July, there's a lot of best ball stuff happening just because you're waiting for redraft.
7:37It's a good time to kind of get in there.
7:41So draft one. Get one. As far as the melee goes, you can use promo code late round.
7:46There's also a link in the description. So we appreciate draft kings.
7:50And speaking of draft kings, best ball, JJ, you're doing streams.
7:54I'll be doing some streams next week while you're out as far as live drafts.
7:59So subscribe to the YouTube channel. Yeah, we could.
8:01I'll maybe do one. Maybe do one today. I shouldn't have said that.
8:06No, don't do it today. Just do it tomorrow.
8:09Do it tomorrow. I'll do one tomorrow. I'll do one tomorrow, guys.
8:12So be on the lookout. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. That's why you turn on notifications.
8:17All right, JJ, let's get into it. We got some news for this week.
8:21Today's fantasy news. Okay. I would not be doing my job if I did not say the biggest news would be the
8:29draft guy is coming out again, July 10th. JJ let out of the bag, July 9th.
8:34I don't know if that's the, is that the biggest news in the fantasy space though?
8:39After, after what went down today, Josh Norris and our friends, Josh Norris and Big Winks.
8:44Yeah, there's some big news. I, I, I meant to talk to you about it beforehand.
8:49It's like, should we do this? Because not just that also Peter Schinke, who is one of my favorite people in the space.
8:57Yeah. It's now the CEO of a fantasy life.
9:00And then today they announced that Josh and Hayden are going to be at Yahoo.
9:04Yeah. And the thing is like, you can look at our Twitter exchange right now, but like I, after I had left
9:12my old job, I was with FanDuel and they had sponsored the show for a little while.
9:17I did a year with underdog. They had sponsored a show.
9:21And obviously we've loved the last two, this is the second year with draft Kings.
9:25And it's been awesome, you know, doing stuff with draft Kings and hopefully it continues.
9:30But because of other priorities, there really hasn't been that much opportunity to work with Josh and Hayden.
9:36And I'm friends with both of them. Um, you know, I, Josh and I especially go, go way back.
9:42Um, and so, uh, I'm very excited that hopefully I'll be able to, you know, we'll be able to do more collabs and stuff moving forward.
9:51Yeah. But, but congrats to them too. That's, that's the most important thing.
9:55They're, they're two very, very good people and they're really good at their job.
9:59And I'm, I'm really happy that, um, you know, despite some moves that went on at that half PPR company, um, that,
10:06uh, that they were able to land on their feet and have what seems like a really awesome gig.
10:13Yeah, for sure. Some great people there at Yahoo.
10:15Uh, you know, we've got the, uh, fantasy football expo coming up and Matt Harmon is, uh, he tweeted out that he's
10:23going to be at the expo if he was last year.
10:26So yeah, maybe get some smoothies before Harmon Harmon and I every year.
10:30At the expo. We're like, I mean, you joined us last year, but we, him and I, cause we, him and I basically like do the same events.
10:39Cause we're on like, you know, we do like the King's classic and we, uh, go to some of the, the fan related events and stuff.
10:48And I have my car and he doesn't. And so I just chauffeur him around.
10:53And you were, you were part of that experience last year with your first year at the expo.
10:58Yeah. And we go to a mid smoothie place, but it's not, it's fine.
11:03It's fine. It's like a chain smoothie place that had some fruit flies last year.
11:08It's all I'm saying. It's Canton, Ohio. What do you expect from Canton, Ohio?
11:12No offense to all the, the, the, you know, please let's not offend anybody.
11:17Let's get into the first big, uh, I don't know.
11:20It was big. It was big for me as a Eli Stowers fan boy and someone who has plenty of bags.
11:27Hit the Stowers. Eli is the, uh, the headline here because it appears that he is like way behind the pecking order of tight end.
11:35And this might be some good news for Dallas Goddard as well.
11:39Yeah. I mean, we'll see. We'll see what ends up happening.
11:42This isn't uncommon for tight ends, but also, you know, I do want to throw out there that a lot of people saw Stowers as a better prospect.
11:51I mean, look, we have no idea what's going to go on.
11:55I'm just giving you guys the take of like what we at late round saw with these prospects during, during draft season.
12:02Cause a lot of you guys weren't even around during draft season, but, um, from a prospecting standpoint, the model did like
12:09Kenyon Sadiq quite a bit more than Eli Stowers.
12:12Like it wasn't this interchangeable thing where, uh, Stowers was clearly better.
12:16I thought Stowers was a really good prospect and that, you know, when you look at like production and athleticism, I'm really
12:23not that far off if at all from Kenyon Sadiq.
12:26But I would also say that you have to factor in draft capital to some degree.
12:32Uh, and so we did like Sadiq more now Sadiq hasn't been able to find the field cause he had a hernia surgery.
12:39So we'll see what happens with all of that.
12:42But yes, Stowers is dropping a ton in best ball right now.
12:46I don't mind 20th round Eli Stowers on draft Kings.
12:49Whenever you have like a Jalen Hurts team, you know, like I think that's still totally defensible and fine because you could
12:56not only get it in a four quarterback build or sorry, four tight end build, but you could also get, um, you know, you're getting that correlation.
13:05You could see a spike towards the end of the year as he gets more acclimated to the game and such.
13:12So I'm not like overly shocked by, by, you know, the reporting and stuff.
13:16I also feel like maybe some of the Philadelphia reports are not just have not been as bullish on the rookies as much.
13:24And they're just being more realistic as some other reports would be because rookies do tend to be a little bit slower to get going.
13:32You know, like there's a lot of talk about Dontavian Wicks playing ahead of Makai Lemon.
13:37And I think that's good, could happen very easily to start the season, but we as fantasy managers have to think about
13:44not just the start of the season, but how that season might unfold.
13:48So, uh, yeah, I mean like Stowers isn't something that you should really care about from a redraft perspective right now, a season long perspective.
13:56Uh, and then best ball, if you want to throw that dart for a stack, I still think it's, it's viable.
14:03Okay. Next item is, uh, the headline ties are like kissing your Kirk cousins.
14:07You ever heard the, uh, the adage ties like kissing your cousin?
14:11No, that's not sounds like a Tennessee thing. Like I grew up in Tennessee type, type adage.
14:17Nobody wins, nobody loses. Uh, but, uh, according to the athletic Sam Warren cousins, took all the first team reps in offseason practices.
14:24Looks like he might be the starter there. Like what if he just plays the whole season?
14:30Yeah. I mean, it's possible, but unlikely just because this is not an abnormal situation for a rookie quarterback to find himself in.
14:37And every single year we do this and the rookie quarterback starting by week seven, you know, um, I, I still think
14:44Mendoza is going to play this year because, because Vegas is more than likely not going to be competitive.
14:50And when they're not competitive, then we're going to see Mendoza.
14:54Now, with that being said, if your expectation is that Mendoza is going to be starting for Vegas week one, I think that's probably not going to happen.
15:03I think Kirk cousins will be under center for them to start the year, but, uh, yeah, I mean, like I'm not,
15:10I don't have these visions of, of the Raiders being competitive this year.
15:14So we're going to see Mendoza eventually. And typically when that's the case, we see them sooner than we think it's just,
15:21it's just the way that, you know, there's, there's pressures that, that come with it.
15:26And there's, you know, it's not like cousins is unbelievable, uh, and like a can't miss type talent.
15:32So I wouldn't be shocked if we see Mendoza, you know, in like from like that week six to 10 range, I
15:39don't know when their bi-week is though. Uh, cause it's typically, uh, a point in time when, um, you know, we would see that switch.
15:47It looks like week 13. So it's, that's not very convenient for, you know, Mendoza per se, but at the very least,
15:54I think he's going to be starting by the time that that bi-week happens.
15:59Yeah. Could be a playoff, uh, fancy playoff starter.
16:02Definitely not in real life playoffs. Uh, Dan Duggan from the athletic, he wrote an article previewing the giants team camp.
16:08And he says that Tracy has an undefined role.
16:11So the headline here is Tracy needs a DTR, a defined relationship combo.
16:16Maybe not the RB two there in New York.
16:18I mean, that would be pretty surprising. It's a brand new, you know, uh, uh, coaching staff system, et cetera.
16:25Tracy has more explosion than the other guys in that backfield.
16:28Um, the one thing I'll say about him though, and look, I'm a truther.
16:33Like I liked him coming out. Uh, I was in, I was in on him, you know, his rookie season and, and, uh, and so on.
16:41But I think that we have to be realistic in that.
16:45Like there are players like him who come out as these tweens.
16:49Who look really good as pass catchers because they were wide receiver converts, but that doesn't mean that they're necessarily good pass
16:56catchers at the NFL level or automatically means the good pass catchers at the NFL level.
17:01Tyrone Tracy has not been that efficient as a pass catcher and cam scataboo last year, which by the way, spoiler alert, you know, just a little tease.
17:10I have cam scataboo as a player to target in this year's draft guy.
17:15I think that in season long leagues where you can get them in like the late fourth, let's say fifth round or something because of this injury.
17:23If he were completely healthy and we, I had this conversation with Nez on becoming a best ball bro, but if cam
17:30scataboo were completely healthy, he'd be like a round two, three turn type player based on his usage last year.
17:37And based on how he was scoring over 19 PPR points per game before the injury happened last year and after week
17:44one, where he just didn't get that much run.
17:47And if you think about the mentality that, you know, Harbaugh brings, uh, it's going to be more of that, like hard nose, physical style of play.
17:56And I mean, cam scataboo, there's no player in the league at running back that fits that more.
18:01So I think that as long as he's fine enough, even if he's 90%, he's going to get a big workload.
18:08In my opinion, the Tyrone Tracy thing though, is like, I think he compliments cam scataboo really well.
18:14So I still think he's going to end up being RB too, but yeah, I mean, like, I think that this just
18:21makes me feel even a little bit more bullish about cam scataboo and what they're, how they're feeling about him and what that could look like this season.
18:30Okay. Next is the Woody buzz. It's a little toy story plan words there.
18:35Uh, yeah. Woody marks is getting used to his role as a third down pass catching guy.
18:40Ty working on receiving and returning kicks. Not sure how this, uh, how this plays into the RB to stuff that you've been talking about JJ.
18:49I really didn't think that I would be in at all or higher than the market on David Montgomery.
18:55And I'm not in best ball. I haven't really drafted that much.
18:59David Montgomery in best ball this season. I have, I've drafted some, but I'm probably going to be at like, you know,
19:06for best ball bros out there, like 3% David Montgomery, you know, nothing substantial, but it's really odd because I feel like
19:13David Montgomery is the kind of player that would look really good in the season long world where ADP would really favor
19:20him just because he's a player who is projected to get a lot of volume, even though maybe the talent level isn't like obscene.
19:28And it's not like an unbelievably great environment. Although I do think that the offensive line is going to be better for
19:35Houston this year, but I'm not, I'm like three, I'm like three spots above market season long market with my, my David Montgomery rank right now.
19:43So, uh, that was a little odd. And I want to at least throw that out there.
19:49It makes me feel, you know, with the, the Woody Mark stuff, like in the end, when we look back on the
19:56season, I think that there is at least a chance.
19:59I'm not saying we're projecting it that way, that he is just expensive LaQuint Allen.
20:04You know, like, I think that that's like a range of outcomes possibility for Woody Marks, because he, he, he did not
20:11go read his prospect profile in the prospect guy guide last year.
20:15Nothing about his profile screamed bell cow back. Right.
20:18And, uh, you know, it was kind of by default as to why he was getting some of that work last year.
20:25And then they go out and they get David Montgomery and we know Montgomery can handle a big workload and he's not
20:32the sexiest back, but David Montgomery is the guy that, that if you, you know, need to hit a single or a
20:39double, you can get a single or a double.
20:42You're not going to hit a home run with David Montgomery more than likely.
20:46Right. Um, but sometimes that's okay for certain team builds, you know?
20:50Uh, and so that's why I think the ranking is showing what it's showing, but I just am not impressed by Woody
20:57Marks as like a runner, but yeah, I mean like his past catching chops were very real, uh, in college and they
21:04just, for whatever reason, didn't really deploy him that way last year.
21:08Uh, and, and so I'm not that surprised that like they're seeing that vision now because that's the kind of player that Woody Marks is.
21:16Kickoff return gives me a little bit of a concern just because it seems like he was in the blue tent every week last, uh, last year.
21:25It was like the Deontay Johnson thing. It's like every, every single time Deontay Johnson had a game, he would get hurt on like the first drive.
21:34Jalen Waddle is kind of like that too. Um, but Woody Marks last year was, it was crazy.
21:40I, I think someone did the analysis and like eight of the, of their games or something.
21:45He found himself in the blue tent at one point.
21:48Like it was, it was wild. Okay. Uh, moving on to another potential RB to snip snap, uh, Chris Rodriguez saw a
21:55beat report or beat reporters saying that, uh, he expects Chris Rodriguez to carve out a big role.
22:01That was a, uh, the headline in Broda world.
22:04I just, I don't know this train, this Chris Rodriguez facial tootin train.
22:08I don't, I don't know where it leads to JJ.
22:12Yeah. Well, um, all roads generally lead to, to base all tootin.
22:15I'll say that first. Um, look, I sent this tweet whenever the, uh, Chris Rodriguez buzz in the fantasy space was starting
22:22after that signing where people were like, you know, it was very much at that point.
22:28Like, Oh, I'm, I like Chris Rodriguez more than base all tootin.
22:32Uh, you know, is a very much a split.
22:34Now, obviously we see ADP right now where I think ADP where Chris Rodriguez goes totally fine.
22:40I've taken them in, in best ball drafts. Like I think it's, it's a fine spot when you consider the, the offensive environment.
22:47I think base all tootin is in a fine spot.
22:51Tootin's actually even more appealing in season long for the record.
22:54When you look at season long ADP versus what we're seeing within best ball with that being said, and I'm going to
23:01say the same thing about a player that we're going to talk to or talk about in a second, but you have
23:08to be aware of beat reports when it comes to the running back position, because oftentimes they're so much more focused on
23:15attempts than they are targets and looks out of the backfield through the air.
23:20And as Gadula pointed out on the show, on the RB to rebirth that we did, uh, you know, a couple of
23:27days ago, a target is so much more valuable than a rush attempt at the running back position in fantasy football.
23:34We're talking like two, two and a half times as valuable as a rush attempt is.
23:39And so when a beat reporter says this guy's going to get a lot of work, okay, well, what does that work
23:46actually look like when you're looking at like weighted opportunity for, from a fantasy football perspective?
23:51And with Chris Rodriguez, I still have the exact same take that I had after he signed there, which is the dude does not catch passes.
24:00He didn't do it in college. He has not done it in the NFL.
24:04And I did a mailbag episode and I looked back at players who started their first few years in their NFL career
24:11with fewer than 20 receptions, fewer than 10 receptions.
24:14And very rarely, I mean, where he's at reception wise, we don't see players pan out and give us like, you know,
24:21legitimate RB two seasons, but even at like 20 receptions across the first three years, I think it was like, we had
24:28like Mark Ingram at one point, uh, do something like that where, um, you know, like, like he didn't, he started off
24:35a little bit cold with his, uh, reception totals and then, you know, became something relatively significant in fantasy football.
24:42Um, but like Rodriguez has played three NFL seasons and he has six receptions.
24:46Like it is, it is, I, I, you can say what you want about Liam Cohen and his tie to him.
24:53But like I said, on this show, when the JK Dobbins reports were coming out saying that the Jags wanted JK Dobbins
25:00to me, that says Chris Rodriguez wasn't a priority for the Jags this off season.
25:05And he was a backup plan because they wanted JK Dobbins to compliment, uh, Bayshall tootin, which makes sense because it's another
25:12early down guy who hasn't proven to be anything significant as a pass catcher.
25:17And so I still think that the upside, which is what we should be chasing, especially in season long, where you can
25:24make up for the mistake and such, like it's a little bit different in best ball.
25:29If you, if you want to say the opportunity cost is really big, I'll just take a little bit of a safer option in that round five range.
25:38Fine. That's fine. I'm not, I'm, I'm not like massively high on, on tootin and best ball, but I think in season long, you just go for it.
25:47You go for the guy who has, has a legitimate top 15 running back upside and fantasy football, which is what Bayshall tootin has.
25:55Uh, and you're drafting him as a high end RB three in season long, like across every platform.
26:01So, uh, Rodriguez is fine. But as I said, when this signing happens, drafting Chris, or preferring Chris Rodriguez over Bayshall tootin is it's a five condom choice.
26:10That's, that's what I had tweeted. All right. Um, from that to this Ben Solak, who's, uh, we got to meet at the super bowl.
26:18Uh, who's a great dude at ESPN. He had his breakout candidates for each team and there are some tight ends on this list.
26:25Oh, here we go. I, let me guess one of them.
26:29Can I just guess one of them? Cause this is why you're bringing it up.
26:34Ready? Ready? Gunner helm is one of them. There are three gunner.
26:38Helm is one of them. There we go. You see on this list though, it's highlighted in orange because the one I
26:45want to talk about was Eric all for Cincinnati.
26:48It kind of surprised me. Um, it's interesting. Yeah.
26:51Yeah. I said that he's kind of a big explosive tight end and he out snapped a sickie in five of the
26:58nine games last year and looked for him to coming off injury to kind of, uh, be in, in that role.
27:05Also, AJ Barner was the third tight end, but yes, JJ, uh, Gunner Helm was on that list.
27:10So yeah. Well, the Eric also Eric all didn't play last seven in 2024 is rookie season.
27:16Cause he, he got hurt and then just didn't play last year.
27:20Um, but yeah, like I, I, I understand the, the, they also drafted, um, I can't remember the tight end off the top of my head right now.
27:29Uh, but a guy that the model didn't really mind that much from, uh, what Hibner wasn't no, that was the, the Ravens anyway.
27:36Um, but they, they did get somebody. I'm just, I'm just blanking right now.
27:41I'm having a brain fart live on air. Uh, but yeah, I mean like, I think the Eric all one is a little bit of a deep cut.
27:50We'll see what happens with him returning. I still think a sickie will probably be more of the primary pass catching tight
27:57end, but in dynasty leagues, like don't forget about them in deep ones and deep.
28:02Yeah. And injuries. That's right. Injuries. Jack. Yeah. Um, but in like the model didn't really mind him that much based on, on where that draft capital was.
28:11Uh, but yeah, that's a, that's a very interesting name that no one in the fantasy space is currently like I've been,
28:18I have him on a lot of dynasty rosters, Eric all I've just been kind of stashing him, but I I've even dropped them.
28:26I dropped them in one because I just needed space and there just wasn't that available for me and it was a little bit shallower.
28:34So I would be kind of, uh, upset from that perspective.
28:37If, if Eric all breaks out, uh, yeah, we did have a good profile.
28:42Yeah. Scott said, uh, Holy undertaker meme to all my Eric called dynasty bags.
28:47Yeah, exactly. You know, where you comes out. That was not a name that I expected you to like, like a gunner.
28:54Hell makes sense. You know, the, the AJ Barner, you know, he had a role last year and he makes sense.
29:00Cause I think Seattle is going to throw it a little bit more and stuff.
29:05Um, but Eric all is, is, is, is a deep cut.
29:09And that's why we like, that's why we like so.
29:12Cause he's, he's thinking a little bit deeper than, than most.
29:16All right. Speaking of tight ends craft Tucker craft might be ready for training camp, not just week one, but training camp.
29:23If so, uh, that would be welcome news to Packers fans and just green Bay offense fans for fantasy.
29:29I think I have crafted tight end five right now, right after the big four.
29:34Um, I have him and then Fannin and pits and Laporta, you know, after, you know, as the next four, but look,
29:41craft is one of those players where you definitely can't assume regression for him because he might just be George Kittle light, like, and light, right?
29:49Like he just, he, he, he might be one of those guys that's just really good in yards per target.
29:56Just amazing after the catch. And I think in this environment, there's a lot to like about that.
30:01The one downside risk with Tucker craft is the Packers often don't get their past catchers enough routes.
30:07And I'm, I'm a little bit afraid. Like that's one of the main reasons I think Trey McBride is scary this year
30:14because he ran so many routes last year. And without those routes, like if I did some analysis in the draft guide
30:21with this, but if, if this is just a general idea of like why we care about routes run, you know, at
30:28tight end, especially because tight end is one where tight ends are not, uh, running routes on 95% of the dropbacks that frequently.
30:36And so, uh, like Trey McBride last year, if you were to regress and take down his routes run number to just
30:43the number two tight end in the league, which I think was Travis Kelsey and routes run, he would have scored like
30:50three and a half fewer PPR points per game.
30:53Trey McBride based on his fantasy points per route run numbers.
30:57And so there's a lot to, to, to buy into from a routes run perspective and the way green Bay runs their
31:04offense is a little bit scary with Tucker craft and he's coming off the injury still.
31:09And maybe they limit him a little bit to, to ramp up to start the year, but he's a beast.
31:15I don't think you should be fading Tucker craft.
31:18Like I I'm, I'm, I'm not like hardcore in, you know, I, but I'm not out on, on craft this year.
31:25I think he's fine where he goes. Shout out to, uh, Zane Danani.
31:29We've talked about him on the show, but, uh, he had a couple of good tweets where he takes a look at
31:36like the insiders and what they're saying and brings it to the masses on, on X.
31:41Danani Zane is, uh, is his handle there on X, but he said the TLDR and the Vikings running back, Jordan Mason,
31:49Aaron Jones, that this is Jordan Mason's backfield. And Aaron Jones will mainly spell and eat into pass downs.
31:55Yeah. That's, that's a big revelation for us. Yeah.
31:58I mean, look, I had Aaron Jones. I've, I've made that gap in my rankings so much smaller as the weeks have gone on this summer.
32:06If people have been kind of monitoring that. And I, I actually right now in half PPR have Jordan Mason a little bit ahead of Aaron Jones.
32:15And this is, I I've been very anti Jordan Mason historically.
32:18The reason this is different than the Chris Rodriguez situation is because you have a potential ascending talent.
32:24I'm not saying it's a lock, but a potential ascending talent and base all tootin that Chris Rodriguez is competing with versus a guy in Jordan Mason.
32:33Who's competing with an aged, you know, uh, Aaron, I mean, I love Aaron Jones, but an aged Aaron Jones who might
32:40not be able to carry a big workload. And there are way more question marks about Jones than there is base all tootin.
32:47So there's a lot bigger of a discrepancy in the talent that they're competing with.
32:52And then you look at DeMond Claiborne who they drafted and Claiborne is someone that, and I talked about this.
32:59I'm becoming a best ball bro. If anyone listens to that, I'm just kind of reiterating what I said there, but Claiborne
33:06is more of an Aaron Jones type back where he's, he's, you know, Jones Jones is bigger than Claiborne, but Claiborne's undersized and he's speedy.
33:14And he's a, I mean, not that Jones is like this, like hyper speed guy and super agile, but he's very good as a receiver.
33:22And, uh, Claiborne is a receiving back that that's really what, uh, teams were looking at him for and why they likely drafted him.
33:30He's not this like bell cow type back. And so just by default, I think Jordan Mason could easily walk into 200
33:37carries this year because this backfield, like, I think that we're going to see Minnesota with better game scripts because they no
33:44longer are going to use JJ McCarthy. The offense should just be better in general.
33:49That could just lead to more running back volume.
33:51And that could lead to Jordan Mason getting more work.
33:55And, you know, this is not the type of running back that I typically draft in season long.
34:00So this is definitely more of a best ball take, you know, people get this backwards a lot where they think that
34:08like better in best ball means the players who are just really high ceiling, but it's really, you're just buying points in different parts of the draft.
34:16And I think right now where Jordan Mason is going, you're attaching them to what could be a good offense, giving Kevin
34:23O'Connell and, you know, Kyler Murray being there. And then on top of, and it's a double digit round pick.
34:30And on top of that, you know, right now, even on a full PPR platform that Jordan Mason is going to see
34:37work, like he's going to get some production. He's probably going to have some spiked weeks.
34:42And, you know, I don't think he's a good pass catcher because he's never proven to be a good pass catcher.
34:49So I don't want to project that, but I do think that maybe he could see a modest bump in target share
34:56just based on, on what they have competition wise.
34:59So I'm having, I'm a little bit more open-minded because I think what I've done in the past is completely from a
35:06process perspective is completely close off this kind of archetype.
35:09Despite it, that the cost being appealing, right? Last year, I didn't, I faded Jordan Mason because his cost was like round seven.
35:17It was way too expensive for a guy who didn't catch passes, but now it's like round 11, round 12, if not later in season long leagues.
35:25And this is where I just should no longer have a hard stance about fading a player because there is still an
35:32out where he sees a 7% target share, a 6% target share.
35:36And maybe he just runs hot on the ground and he has a decent amount of rushing touchdowns and he's a Javante Williams type, right?
35:44Like that's what I made the mistake of with Javante Williams last year was this very similar ish archetype and profile.
35:51You know, Javante Williams is better in pass pro and a better receiver and had a better backbone as a prospect, but
35:58Jordan Mason has done something in the NFL. And so I'm, I'm trying not to like hardcore fade this.
36:04I'm actually to this point, like I'm higher than the market on Jordan Mason.
36:09And I never thought that that would be the case, but I'm just playing the cost game.
36:14I'm playing the ADP game here. Okay. Okay. And the last news item is again, the talking point between running backs, something that we're looking for.
36:23This is Zane's take on what to watch in camp.
36:26It said, sounds like there's a shot for Travion Henderson to earn more versus Ramond Ray Stevenson.
36:32So basically they're going to be splitting reps, but something to watch for in camp is how they do it because there
36:39is an opportunity for Travion to begin to take over.
36:42Yeah. My stance on this is I think ADP has already reflected this, so it doesn't really change that, that much.
36:49You know, I think Ramond Ray is the better value between the two, just because there's a bigger opportunity cost with, with Travion.
36:56And, you know, you can look at where Ramond Ray goes in best ball.
37:01He's even cheaper and season long just based on some of the ADP sources that I've been looking at.
37:07Because in the draft guide, I'm really trying to pinpoint like, hey, if you're drafting on ESPN, you know, Quentin Johnson right
37:14now is past wide receiver 50 on ESPN, which is crazy to me.
37:18And then, you know, same thing with, with like Yahoo or wherever you're playing.
37:23I'm trying to call that out on here. Every time I say Yahoo, Kitchen, Kitchen loves to smirk and be like, you did it again.
37:31You said it that time. You said Yahoo. I try to now.
37:34Now I, now I just play into the bit.
37:37But, but yeah, over on Yahoo, Ramond Ray, you know, my, or, you know, you might see different ADPs and then I'm
37:44trying to reflect that in the, in the draft guide.
37:48But yeah, I mean, look, I think the report when I was looking at it was very mostly like, hey, if Travion
37:55Henderson gets better at the things that he was bad at last year, he's going to get more work.
38:01And I think we all know that. Right. But in the end, you know, what will go down is there's still going
38:08to be probably a shorter leash than we would like with Henderson.
38:12Henderson. I'm, I'm not betting on the Henderson breakout to happen this year, but I'm definitely not against drafting him.
38:18You know, I'm just very neutral with my Henderson stance.
38:22I like, I like Ramond Ray because, you know, new England is going to face a tougher schedule.
38:27And when that happens, they're going to want somebody.
38:30And if they have more negative game scripts, you know, you might think, oh, get the dynamic pass catching Henderson out there.
38:37But Ramond Ray Stevenson is, is, is safer and pass pro and he's, you know, capable of playing that role.
38:44And so I think that they might just lean on that, especially early on in the season.
38:49You know, maybe it starts to transfer and move in Travion's direction as the season goes on.
38:55But that's when you can maybe, you know, like if you listen to 15 transactions, we can maybe make some deals and
39:02flip Ramond Ray at the, at the right time.
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40:13Okay, let's get into today's data. Today's data! All right, we've got positional rank change between scoring settings.
40:19JJ, tell us what we're looking at here. Every year, we get tons and tons of emails from people in August and late July.
40:27And they're like, hey, did your draft guide give us full PPR rankings or half PPR rankings or both?
40:33And my stance is always, guys, you're overrating the difference between full and half PPR.
40:38You just are, right? Not only are these numbers looking at it in hindsight, where Jamal Williams' 17 touchdown season is captured in this data.
40:46So obviously that was a really funky, weird season.
40:49When we're projecting, we see very, very little difference from half to full PPR.
40:53Obviously from full to standard, you're going to see more of a difference.
40:57But if you do half PPR rankings and if you're looking at half PPR rankings, what this shows you is that when
41:05you look at running backs from half to full PPR and the way they actually performed.
41:10I'm not looking at projections. I'm looking at how they actually performed.
41:1432% of them don't see a rank change when they finished in the top 24 at the position.
41:19They don't see a rank change in PPR points per game versus half PPR points per game.
41:2532% of them do. Another 32% only see a change in positional finish of one or just one spot.
41:31Let's say they finish as RB17 in full PPR leagues.
41:34That means they would be either RB16 or RB18 in half PPR leagues.
41:38That's what that's saying. And as you go down further and further, very rarely are these players really shifting in their overall
41:46rank from one scoring setting to the next. It just doesn't happen very frequently whatsoever.
41:50And that only diminishes when you look at top 12 and top six.
41:55So this is looking at top 24 running backs and wide receivers and top 12 tight ends.
42:00If you look at top 12 running backs and wide receivers and top six tight ends, that gap is even smaller because
42:07there's less variation with those types of players. So don't focus so heavily on scoring changes from half to full PPR.
42:14Understand if there are funky scoring rules in your league.
42:17I'm not saying don't pay attention to that. But the bigger deal is the supply and demand stuff.
42:23It's are you in a super flex league? Are you, you know, do you have four flex spots?
42:29You know, like what is the actual demand for these positions?
42:32Don't worry so much about if it's full or half PPR, because, again, we're looking at this in hindsight with these charts.
42:39This is saying this is what happened when you're actually projecting what's going to happen between full and half PPR.
42:46The ranking changes really are not significant from one position to the next.
42:50OK, let's get on to the main event. The late round main event.
42:54OK, we've got bounce back candidates first on the list.
42:57Mr. Ashton Jinty. I want to be clear. These bounce back candidates, the way that I approach this is I looked at
43:05players who did not perform well versus expectation last year.
43:08And by expectation, I'm looking at only relevant fantasy weeks.
43:11So I removed the fight. So week 18 is not part of this equation.
43:16And so, again, ADP expectation, you have a history of where these guys are drafted and how many PPR points per game
43:23we expect players to score based on where they were drafted.
43:26That's just done through regression analysis. And then how a player actually scores.
43:30We can compare that to their expectation to see how they played above or below expectation.
43:36And so Ashton Jinty last year, he played 2.4 PPR points per game below expectation.
43:40Now, there are other people in the fantasy space that do this now that look at ADP expectation.
43:46They could be doing it in a slightly different way where their formulas and their regression analysis is just slightly different.
43:53Like their sample sizes are different. Their formulas are different.
43:56Everyone's going to do it a little bit differently.
43:59And so, you know, you might see someone else be tweeting about this.
44:03And it's like, oh, but this one says that Ashton Jinty only played 2 points below expected.
44:09And it's okay. Like I get it. It's the general idea here that we're, you know, looking at.
44:15So Ashton Jinty played 2.4 PPR points per game below expected last year.
44:19He had a 3.7 yards per carry, but he posted the second lowest yard before contact per attempt last year because that offensive line was terrible.
44:27It was 30th according to PFF run blocking. Now they get Colton Miller back.
44:32Tyler Linderbaum is there at center. I think the offensive line is going to look a lot better.
44:38And if you look at what is sticky from rookie season, I mean, it's really any season to the next season, but
44:45rookie season stuff for these running backs. Volume is so much of a bigger deal than efficiency is in terms of predictiveness.
44:52Since 2011, only Saquon Barkley hit an 80% running back rush share and had just as high of a target share as
44:59Ashton Jinty as a rookie running back. And not only that, Ashton Jinty right now is the RB4 within market score.
45:06Market score really likes him too. So all of that being said, you're going to be able to get Ashton Jinty on
45:13some fantasy platforms at RB8 this year based on ADP.
45:16And I am in at that cost. I think that he is in the same tier as James Cook and Jonathan Taylor right now.
45:24Okay. Next on the list, Lad McConkie. So Lad played.
45:27We never talk about Lad on this show, so I'm glad that he's here.
45:31Yeah. I mean, I feel like there's there. I thought I was going to be one of the big bulls for Lad this year.
45:39You know, one of the people that were really high on him.
45:43But there's so many people that just love Lad, like are obsessed with Lad.
45:48And I'm more in than out in total, spoiler alert, but he played 4.3 points per game below expected last year.
45:54He saw his targets per outrun go from 23% to 19%.
45:58He saw his target share go from 24% to 21%.
46:01But here's the thing. Mike McDaniel's in LA now.
46:04I'm buying. I think everyone should buy into what this offense could do.
46:08We're going to see fewer three wide receiver sets and multi-wide receiver sets like that because of this McDaniel offense.
46:15It's not necessarily tight end heavy, but they'll use a fullback and that'll lose a wide receiver on the field.
46:21And when that happens, usually the wide receivers on that team end up seeing better efficiency.
46:26So if Lad can hit a 24% target share again in this offense, he should pay off.
46:32So I'm more in than out with Lad McConkie right now, even though those numbers from last year, I didn't even post
46:39his first downs per outrun rate, which is really, really glaring.
46:42It was like under 7%. So there's a lot of scary previous season numbers with Lad.
46:48But if you look at the bigger picture, I think that he's still a good pick.
46:53This next guy could help some. He could also hurt you.
46:56As a fellow Kenneth Walker owner, he's now on this new team.
47:00He's the next bounce back candidate. Yes, he played about two points per game below expected last year.
47:06Obviously, that's because he split a backfield with Zach Charbonnet.
47:09And look, you can yell at the Seattle coaching staff all you want.
47:13I don't understand people doing that when they won the freaking Super Bowl.
47:18And it was largely because they lost Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker was fresh.
47:22You know, like, like, how can you fault how they handled that backfield last year, given what we saw go down?
47:29If anything, they handled it flawlessly and perfectly. Right.
47:32Because Charbonnet eventually goes down and they're like, oh, we have a more fresh Kenneth Walker.
47:37Oh, by the way, he won Super Bowl MVP.
47:40You guys. Okay. So let's get over this idea of complaining about how they deployed their running back room just because of your fantasy team.
47:48So he played two points per game below expected.
47:51He split that backfield with Zach Charbonnet. There's easier competition in Kansas City for sure versus Zach Charbonnet.
47:57Because you have Amari DiMarcado and Emmitt Johnson. The fear with Kenneth Walker is the pass catching.
48:02It's not that he can't do it. It's not that he's not efficient doing it.
48:07It's that will a team, in this case, Kansas City, deploy Kenneth Walker in the way for him to truly be a mid-range RB1.
48:15You know, like you're drafting him to RB10, let's say.
48:18And will he be able to finish as an RB6?
48:21You know, because that's the kind of increase and uptick that you want.
48:25I think it's possible, which is why I'm more neutral with Kenneth Walker.
48:30But Emmitt Johnson and Amari DiMarcado are both pass catching backs.
48:33Like they both can play that role. And that's a little bit scary, especially Kenneth Walker hasn't been above an 8% target
48:40share in all but one season of his career.
48:43And so oddly in best ball, I've been more out than in with Walker just because of where his college.
48:50He goes at the one-two turn on draft kings right now.
48:53But if you look at season-long ADP, he's outside of the top 12 running backs on almost every platform.
48:59This is why it's so important right now for analysts to not assume best ball is the way that season-long is going to go.
49:07And I'm trying to make a point this year more than ever to draw that line and make that distinction with these players.
49:14Because I'm fine with drafting Kenneth Walker in season-long based on where he goes in season-long.
49:20It's a lot harder for me to take him over some of the running backs.
49:24I just like slightly more than him. Like I've seen him go ahead of Ashton Gentry.
49:30I'm taking Ashton Gentry ahead of Kenneth Walker. Like I like him more than Kenneth Walker.
49:35But at RB15 on some of these platforms, yeah, I'll take him at RB15.
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50:49Okay, this next one, I'm really hoping he bounces back.
50:52Like, really hoping. And that is Lamar Jackson. Look, so yes, he played 4.3 points per game below expected.
50:58He was not great last year. Here's the thing, though.
51:01Okay? Look at his rushing points per game by year.
51:04I have it listed here. The good news is that this looks like an outlier season.
51:103.6 is the latest. It's just going in order.
51:13I should have put the year next to these numbers, but I didn't.
51:17The bad news is it's kind of going down a little bit, you know, the rushing numbers.
51:22Like, I don't think that we're going to see that 9 point per game rushing season from Lamar anymore.
51:28But he should be able to get back to 6 or 7.
51:32You know, he should be able to give you the numbers that he used to...
51:37Yeah, there you go. The numbers that we used to see.
51:41You got a new offensive coordinator. You know, he doesn't have that hamstring issue.
51:45I've been drafting Lamar in best ball. You know, season long, I think, is a little bit different.
51:51But I think the gap between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and ADP in general is just a little bit too wide.
51:58See this, JJ? There you go. Lamar. That's Lamar.
52:01Shout out, Jamie. Shout out, Jamie. Hope to see him in can again this year.
52:06Okay, let's go to the next one. We've talked about him also.
52:10It's DJ Moore. I see the upside case with DJ Moore for sure.
52:14I think the fit with Josh Allen's great. He's an improviser, DJ Moore is, and obviously Josh Allen is too.
52:20It's just really hard for me to look at what he's done the last two years and feel really good about this
52:27profile amongst other wide receivers in that range that are just really good.
52:32You know, there's just really good competition there. He's had a sub-7% first downs per outrun rate in back-to-back seasons.
52:38That's a really bad number for a guy that's going to be drafted in the top 30 at the position.
52:44He's been below a 1.5 yards per outrun rate in back-to-back seasons, which is also very bad.
52:50I mean, the trends for players like this have not been friendly whatsoever.
52:54I like the pairing with Josh Allen hypothetically. I just don't know if DJ Moore is the player that people think that he is.
53:02So overall, I've been out. Okay, Brian Thomas Jr.
53:05next on this list. Yeah, so again, another spoiler.
53:08I think Parker Washington at his ADP in season long is way more attractive than Brian Thomas, but you don't get that
53:15same kind of discount in best ball. So it's a little bit different.
53:19But Brian Thomas played six and a half points per game below expected last year.
53:24The one thing that's really interesting is that his air yards per game really didn't change year over year.
53:30He just didn't convert the same way that he did as a rookie.
53:34Was that a Mac Jones thing? Maybe. Maybe that played some role.
53:38But he definitely didn't make the big plays that he did, the splash plays that he did as a rookie.
53:45And that led to a 7% first downs per outrun rate and a 1.50 yards per outrun.
53:50Both pretty poor numbers for Brian Thomas last season.
53:53He also saw his target share go from about 25% to 19%.
53:57It's a good environment, though. There's a lot of positive vibes.
54:00He did do what he did his rookie season, and he was hurt last year.
54:05So because of all of that, I'm more neutral with Brian Thomas.
54:09I think he's easier to draft in best ball, though, than he is in season long.
54:14All right, next one had a touchdown in the playoffs.
54:17But aside from that, not very much. Matthew Golden for the Packers.
54:21I mean, we talked about Golden with the market score stuff and his top comp being Sky Moore, which I think is
54:28kind of a reasonable comp for him to have.
54:31I think that there's still some upside there for sure.
54:35It could click. It might have just been a rough season.
54:38And we've seen that at times at wide receiver with these rookies.
54:42But he had a 1.35 yards per outrun rate, a 6% first downs per outrun rate.
54:47He had a questionable prospect profile on top of that.
54:50This is one of those players where, like, if he had a good prospect profile and he had a bad first season,
54:57I would be in still at this cost. But because I wasn't in love with him as a prospect, I'm mostly out on Matthew Golden.
55:06Despite, like, I don't think his ADP is that unreasonable.
55:09So I don't want to say, like, totally out.
55:12But I am probably mostly out with Golden this year.
55:15Okay. Saquon is next on this list. Three and a half points per game below expected last year for Saquon.
55:21And that's largely driven by... I mean, Kevin Matulos sucks.
55:25Like, he's so bad. I mean, I've said it so many times on the show this offseason.
55:30But, like, I really do think the Eagles are going to be a lot better this year.
55:36Last year, one of the big reasons... No, there is some fear with Saquon that this could just be the turning point of his career.
55:44And he's just not as explosive as he used to be.
55:47He had a 1.4% 20-plus yard run rate last year, which was the worst of his career, by, like, a decent margin.
55:54And so there is that fear, for sure, with Saquon.
55:57But if you look at his base usage, he actually had a better running back rush share and target share year over
56:05year in this offense versus that Super Bowl winning year that he had two years ago.
56:10So, I'm kind of neutral with Saquon at this point.
56:13I think he's fine at that 1-2 turn area.
56:16There's just so many good running backs that you can choose from there that I don't want to be especially overweight on
56:23a player like him coming off the season that he came off.
56:27Yeah. As someone who has had the 11 or 12 spot on DK more times than not, I feel like I have too much Saquon bags right now.
56:36All right. Last, but from my expectation, not least, Mr.
56:39Justin Jefferson. Yeah. So, the crazy... He killed teams last year.
56:43I mean, he killed... Yeah, he did. He did.
56:46He did. He played 6.1 PPR points per game below expected.
56:49I mean, he was one of the worst fantasy football picks last season in the end.
56:54But his usage was still there. It's just that they couldn't convert and they had really bad quarterback play.
57:00And the crazy thing is that Justin Jefferson, despite his lofty expectations, he's been a top 10 wide receiver since his rookie year in ADP.
57:08Despite that, he's played below ADP expectation just once throughout his career, which was last year.
57:14Which is kind of crazy. Like, it just goes to show how good and dominant he's been.
57:19Last year was the first time his yards per hour run fell below 2.5.
57:242.5, you guys, is like an elite, elite yards per hour run season.
57:28Last year was the first time it fell below that point.
57:31I don't think Justin Jefferson just forgot how to play football.
57:35I don't think that that's a reasonable thing to expect or say.
57:39And then you get Kyler Murray who's going to step in.
57:42And we've seen Kyler support, you know, DeAndre Hopkins in the past and such.
57:47It's not like it's this thing that he can't do, even though there's a chance that he's not nearly as good as, you know, what we're hoping.
57:56So right now my verdict for Justin Jefferson is neutral just because he's being drafted high still, right?
58:01Like, he's still a high draft pick. But I'm totally fine with drafting Justin Jefferson this year.
58:07I like the Minnesota offense. I really like Kyler Murray as a pick.
58:11And so I'm, you know, you could maybe argue I'm more in than out, but I wouldn't be worried about what we
58:18saw from Justin Jefferson in 2020, 2025. Yeah. I mean, it's hard to imagine quarterback play being worse than it was last year.
58:26Horrible. Although, oddly, I mean, this is going to be a Caleb Williams stray, but Caleb Williams had a worse completion rate over expected than J.J.
58:34McCarthy last year. Last year, Caleb Williams did. Last year, Caleb Williams had a worse completion rate over expected than J.J.
58:41McCarthy. Yeah. Let's hope this Vikings offense just gets back to what it did, what it has been doing in the past.
58:48And Jefferson becomes an elite fantasy option again. That's what I'm hoping.
58:52All right. Let's let's wrap this up. Okay. Just a reminder.
58:55That's the draft guide coming out on Thursday night and you can get it by going to late route.com.
59:01You can become an all access member and have it included in your membership as well as the 2026 prospect guide.
59:08And you would also get the 2027 prospect guide.
59:11It's time for the newsletter. Brandon Gadula has been doing a great job with the midweek stuff.
59:17I've got the end of week stuff where we kind of recap what's been happening a little bit behind the scenes for late round.
59:24And then, again, if you missed it at the beginning, we are not going to have this show next week.
59:31J.J. is taking a much deserved vacation. J.J., final thoughts?
59:34J.J. Look, I'm excited for the draft guide to go out.
59:38Hopefully you guys enjoy it. And I am equally excited to be chilling with the family at the beach.
59:44J.J. There you go. How's your Scott Fishbowl team, by the way?
59:48J.J. I'm only two rounds in. I'm in the 112 spot.
59:51I'm in the 12 spot. And I drafted Justin Jefferson, who we just talked about.
59:56J.J. And Trey McBride, who I'm not even like I'm not high on McBride at all this year versus the market.
60:03But the scoring settings really do favor tight ends.
60:06And technically, he was like five spots below ADP where I drafted him.
60:10So I just got him. Whenever I sign up for Scott Fishbowl, it gives you the option to select your draft spot.
60:17And I just select first overall. Just. Yeah. I actually forgot to join a league this year.
60:22And Scott put me in the perfect dark league.
60:25And then he made me the 12 spot because I had forgotten.
60:29And he knows that that analysts, you know, like I love Scott Fishbowl every year.
60:34And I pay I pay attention to the drafts and stuff like that.
60:38But he's like, it's always easiest because, you know, you're busy and you'll have you can make two picks right right in a row like that.
60:47But I'd seen him. I saw him at the Charlotte SFB event and because he was there this year.
60:53And I was like, did you put me in the perfect dark division or league?
60:58And he was like, yeah. He was like, I went through and saw the people who hadn't claimed a league yet.
61:04And you were the only person that I matched.
61:07You know, other people will match for like, you know, do that job for him.
61:12But he just decided to do it for me in particular.
61:16I'm in the Halo League. So I chose Gibbs first overall, but I feel like first four picks you could have gone really anyone.
61:23And it hasn't come back around to me. So that's fun.
61:27Again, Fantasy Cares is the nonprofit that Scott has that it benefits from Scott Fishbowl.
61:32If you haven't checked that out, we love Scott and hope to see him in Canada at the FFXpo.
61:38So we appreciate, though, everyone for tuning in, for liking comments.
61:41I saw one guy who was like commented earlier.
61:44He's like, hey, I love that you guys talk about personal stuff on this show.
61:49And then you get into the actual fantasy content.
61:52Slam the key. So shout out or appreciate his shout out.
61:56And again, we just appreciate everyone. And we'll see you next time here on the Late Brown Fantasy Football Show.
62:02We'll see you next time. Stop by. Grainger. For the ones who get it done.
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