Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Leaning Into Injury Risk?
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
56 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 19, 2026
Published
Wed, August 19, 2026
58
Player insights
49
Players mentioned
Topics
Pat BryantCaleb DouglasChase BrownChris BellKenneth Walker IIIMalik WillisSaquon BarkleyTroy FranklinAlec PierceBreece HallBrock BowersBrock PurdyCarnell TateChris Godwin
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
PositiveInjury21:53
Alec Pierce is considered a 'scary' situation due to a lack of practice and visible limping. Zachariason suggests avoiding him unless there is a significant discount, especially given the team's signing of Keenan Allen.
Insight pageBreece Hall
NegativeInjury29:52
Breece Hall is dealing with an apparent groin injury, creating uncertainty regarding his availability for Week 1.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
NegativeInjury26:57
Brock Bowers dealt with a PCL issue that required taping, but he appears to be improving.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveMatchup42:26
Brock Purdy is cited as an example of a player who, when paired with a week 17 bring-back, can help win a best ball contest.
Insight pageCaleb Douglas
PositiveBreakout19:09
Caleb Douglas is separating from the pack in training camp and is noted for his downfield ability; JJ Zachariason and guest Chad Candles both express optimism about his potential role.
Insight pageNegativeSleeper38:28
Caleb Douglas is mentioned as a late-round rookie wide receiver who has gained draft interest, with Chad Kandel noting he was getting warm on him as a potential late-round pick.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveValue20:59
JJ Zachariason is high on Carnell Tate, noting he has been able to secure him in the sixth round of drafts.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue36:57
JJ Zachariason drafted Chase Brown at the 11 spot, viewing him as part of a tier of running backs that includes Saquon Barkley.
Insight pagePositiveValue37:37
JJ Zachariason considers Chase Brown to be in the same tier as Kenneth Walker, suggesting that drafting both is an optimal move in best ball formats.
Insight pageChris Bell
PositiveInjury19:16
Chris Bell is healthier than expected and was activated from injury faster than anticipated, surprising JJ Zachariason.
Insight pagePositiveInjury31:53
Chris Bell is reportedly healthier than previously expected, according to camp reports.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue50:08
Chad Kandel is heavier on Chris Godwin this year, suggesting he could perform as a WR1 while being drafted 50 picks later than Trey Palmer or other teammates.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveRole9:02
JJ Zachariason uses Christian Watson as an example of a player who overcame 'injury-prone' labels by producing at a high level in the second half of last season, effectively silencing concerns.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
PositiveValue22:29
JJ Zachariason has started drafting more Chuba Hubbard as the ADP gap between him and Jonathan Brooks has widened, making Hubbard a more attractive value.
Insight pageCyrus Allen
NegativeSleeper38:22
JJ Zachariason and Chad Kandel discuss the hype surrounding Cyrus Allen, noting that while he is a 16th-round pick, he is being drafted more frequently now than earlier in the season, which may lead to being above market on him.
Insight pageDarren Waller
PositiveValue25:47
Rich Rebar highlights Darren Waller as a reasonable late-round dart throw following his signing with Carolina, fitting the strategy of leaving room for tight ends at the end of rosters.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeUsage19:25
JJ Zachariason expresses concern regarding De'Von Achane's pass-catching usage within the Dolphins' offense.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
NegativeInjury31:35
Chad Candles is not worried about D.K. Metcalf's injury status, noting that he has no competition breathing down his neck and will be fine.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveValue24:50
Dontayvion Wicks is a rising target for JJ Zachariason, who notes he is still available in the 150s (rounds 14-20), making him a high-upside late-round pick.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveValue45:45
Drake London is highlighted as a comfortable early-round pick for roster construction in best ball drafts.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeInjury2:09
JJ Zachariason notes that Emeka Egbuka is dealing with a lingering turf toe injury, which has led him to prioritize other receivers like Zay Flowers, Devante Smith, or Jalen Waddle in drafts.
Insight pageGreg Dulcich
NegativeUsage41:57
JJ Zachariason warns against automatically pairing Greg Dulcich with Josh Allen as a week 17 bring-back, as it leads to over-representing specific, uncorrelated player combinations.
Insight pageIsiah Pacheco
PositiveValue47:54
JJ Zachariason references Isiah Pacheco as an example of a player who helped a winning best ball team despite being a mid-round pick, illustrating that perfection is not required to win.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveValue45:45
JJ Zachariason mentions Jamar Chase as a comfortable starting point for roster builds, particularly when drafting from the middle of the board.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveValue20:19
JJ Zachariason has been aggressively drafting Jahmyr Gibbs, often taking him at the 1.01 or 1.02 spot, viewing him as a key advantage for back-half round one drafters.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveProjection24:18
Jalen Hurts is a target for JJ Zachariason in the late seventh round; reports suggest the Eagles intend to increase his design run usage compared to last year's decrease.
Insight pageJayden Higgins
NegativeInjury8:27
Jaden Higgins is currently dealing with an injury, which Zachariason notes as a recent development that impacts his draft standing.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeInjury44:22
JJ Zachariason notes that if Jonathan Taylor were to get injured, it would become very clear which backup running back (like McGowan or Giddens) should have been drafted.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeValue21:56
Jonathan Brooks has risen 40 spots in ADP, and while JJ Zachariason is personally invested, he warns that drafting him in the sixth round is objectively rich, though justifiable if he is an RB3/4.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury2:12
Jordan Tyson is dealing with a recurring hamstring injury that Zachariason classifies as a 'sound the alarm' situation. Despite the injury risk, Zachariason still considers him draftable in the 140s due to his high prospect profile and potential for late-season production.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeUsage41:57
JJ Zachariason advises against forcing specific week 17 bring-back pairings, such as Greg Dulcich, on Josh Allen teams to avoid suboptimal, repetitive roster construction.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
PositiveValue24:01
JJ Zachariason views Keenan Allen as a strong value pick in round 19, noting that while he does not expect him to dominate, Allen has consistently seen good target shares in previous spots and now faces weaker competition on the Colts.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue36:57
JJ Zachariason drafted Kenneth Walker at the 11 spot, viewing him as part of a tier of running backs that includes Saquon Barkley.
Insight pagePositiveValue37:37
JJ Zachariason views Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown as part of the same tier in best ball drafts, noting that he does not see a significant difference between Walker and Saquon Barkley, making it unnecessary to force a specific draft strategy between them.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
PositiveValue13:51
JJ Zachariason is heavily overweight on Kenyon Sadiq, often drafting him in the 18th round. He believes Sadiq will provide usable weeks and represents a significant discount compared to other players in that range.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveMatchup47:21
JJ Zachariason suggests that hitting on Kyle Pitts and pairing him with a strong week 17 correlation matchup can lead to a high-percentile outcome in best ball.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveMatchup42:31
Luther Burden is highlighted as a key piece in a winning best ball lineup, specifically as a week 17 bring-back against Brock Purdy.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
NegativeInjury31:00
JJ Zachariason and Chad Candles express concern over Makai Lemon's injury status, noting he may not be ready for Week 1 and could struggle to earn playing time on a competitive team.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveValue20:41
Malik Nabers is viewed as a strong value at the 2/3 turn, and JJ Zachariason notes that while his ADP has risen, he remains a player worth drafting if he fits the team build.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveValue19:35
JJ Zachariason considers Malik Willis the easiest click on the board in season-long formats and a perfect QB3 in best ball builds.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout53:34
Chad Kandel predicts Malik Willis will finish as a top-six quarterback, citing his rushing upside and the potential for a monster year if he maintains a high volume of carries.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveValue26:46
Both analysts view Michael Mayer as an undervalued late-round pick who should be going earlier. He is seen as having usable weeks and contingent upside if Brock Bowers were to miss time.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
NegativeInjury31:35
Chad Candles is not worried about Michael Pittman Jr.'s injury status, noting that he has no competition breathing down his neck and will be fine.
Insight pagePat Bryant
PositiveRole18:38
JJ Zachariason prefers Pat Bryant over Troy Franklin due to a projected larger role; Bryant is expected to serve as a high-quality slot receiver in 11 personnel, and his strong performance in training camp has further separated him from the pack.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout30:38
JJ Zachariason prefers Pat Bryant over Troy Franklin, noting that Bryant is crushing it in camp and is expected to have a significant role in the slot within 11 personnel.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper51:59
Chad Kandel and JJ Zachariason agree that Pat Bryant is a strong late-round target who has not risen enough in ADP, making him a surprising value.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeBust35:38
JJ Zachariason admits he was wrong to fade Rashee Rice last year, noting that he was stubborn about the price and got bailed out by an injury.
Insight pageRashid Shaheed
PositiveValue11:49
JJ Zachariason expresses interest in Rashid Shaheed, noting he is one of his higher-exposed players despite the coin-flip nature of his current ADP in the 12th round.
Insight pageRay Davis
NegativeSleeper44:51
Ray Davis is identified as a player who is likely to be a hit in zero RB builds, despite the risk of having 'zero' weeks in best ball.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveValue21:17
JJ Zachariason views Rhamondre Stevenson as a priority target, preferring him over Jonathan Brooks due to the safety he provides, though he notes Stevenson's ADP is rising due to injuries in the backfield.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeProjection37:45
JJ Zachariason compares Saquon Barkley to Kenneth Walker, noting that he sees them in the same tier of running backs.
Insight pageNegativeValue37:52
JJ Zachariason does not see a significant difference between Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Walker, suggesting that drafters should not feel pressured to prioritize one over the other based on ADP.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue32:49
JJ Zachariason notes that even though Stefon Diggs' ADP has risen, he will continue to draft him because he still believes in the player and wants to capture the upside.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveSleeper44:51
JJ Zachariason suggests that Tank Dell is a likely hit in zero RB builds, though he acknowledges the inherent volatility of such players in best ball formats.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
PositiveValue27:29
JJ Zachariason remains high on Terrence Ferguson, drafting him in round 15 despite a slight rise in his ADP, citing his role in a tight-end-friendly offense.
Insight pageTroy Franklin
NegativeRole18:38
JJ Zachariason ranks Troy Franklin behind Pat Bryant, citing a smaller projected role compared to Bryant's utility as a slot receiver in 11 personnel.
Insight pageNegativeDepth Chart30:38
JJ Zachariason ranks Troy Franklin behind Pat Bryant, suggesting a smaller projected role for Franklin in the offense.
Insight pageZavion Thomas
NegativeSleeper52:12
Chad Kandel and JJ Zachariason have both drafted Zavian Thomas as a late-round dart throw, noting his speed and potential gadget role in the Ben Johnson offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. I got 40th in the DraftKings Millie Contest, taking home $20,000.
0:05Maybe I became a Best Ball Bro, but I'm still looking to learn more about this game, and I still want others
0:11to come on this ride with me. So even if you consider me a Best Ball Bro, this could be your year.
0:17This could be the year that you officially become a Best Ball Bro.
0:21This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for Best Ball, and we've got a can't-miss
0:27offer on their biggest Best Ball contest ever. $20 million in total prizes.
0:30It's draft one, get one. Draft your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week, all season long.
0:37Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
0:41Enter a lineup in the $20 million Best Ball Contest for $25, and get a bonus ticket for the best ball.
0:46For a second entry, two shots at the title.
0:49Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours.
0:52Welcome into another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro.
0:55I'm JJ Zacharyarysen, and joined, as always, by Rich Rebar.
0:58Rich, what's going on, buddy? JJ, my wife and I were sitting down last night watching some Netflix, watching four seasons.
1:03Shouts to Steve Carell. Everything that guy touches is gold, and I get the notification that Keenan Allen has signed with the
1:09Indianapolis Colts, and I fist-pumped so hard. Jenna's like, what are you so excited about?
1:14I'm like, my guy, JJ, had a rough one today, and I'm glad he ended it with a dub.
1:19I needed something to happen favorably, because, man, it feels like every, especially wide receiver that I've talked about in the draft
1:25guide, that I've been drafting a decent amount of, has gotten hurt at some point.
1:29You know, now we have this lingering toe with Emeka Buka.
1:32The big thing, though, was Jordan Tyson. I actually, you know, I was looking at my best ball.
1:37I'm overweight on Jordan Tyson, but it's not as much as it could have been, because I'm pretty high on him, just
1:43as a player, as a prospect, all of that.
1:46And yeah, I mean, like, let's just talk about that right now, because I think that's the big news with best ball at the moment.
1:53I think that Jordan Tyson is still draftable. You know, I know a lot of people are going to just take him
1:59off their board because of the injury. And look, of course we knew that this injury thing was a thing with Jordan Tyson.
2:05You know, I wrote about it in the prospect guide.
2:08It was a reason why I had him in the same tier as Carnell Tate.
2:12Otherwise, if there are no issues at all, he was technically a better prospect in my eyes.
2:17Like, he would have been a tier above. And, you know, camp over the last few weeks, I know it's just camp,
2:23but my gosh, the hype with Jordan Tyson was really there.
2:26Nick Underhill is one of the best beat writers in the country, let alone the best for the Saints.
2:31And he was saying that Jordan Tyson, at some point this season, had a very real chance to be the best player on the Saints roster.
2:38He's not one to just say things like that.
2:41He's a very, you know, thoughtful beat reporter. And it just goes to show how well Jordan Tyson was performing.
2:46And so I felt good about the talent evaluation part.
2:49The obvious part that was, you know, the issue with Jordan Tyson as a prospect.
2:53And the issue right now is that he's gotten hurt.
2:56Now, I will say, I think that like the broken collarbone that he had is just not a deal that I think
3:02has anything to do with this at all. Maybe you could say that the ACL that he suffered a few years ago
3:08could be, you know, a part of this and why this hamstring thing has seemed to be lingering.
3:13Because he suffered the hamstring last year. He dealt with it during the draft process.
3:17And then obviously they're saying that this is disconnected.
3:20This has nothing to do with, you know, any of that.
3:23I think that's probably BS. I mean, it's, you know, your body all functions as one.
3:27It's not like you have these independent muscles, you know, that don't touch each other.
3:31But that being said, and for the record, I'm also parroting what smart people like Jeff Mueller on Twitter, you know, a PT is saying about this.
3:39With that being said, I do have the general stance that players are injury prone until they're not.
3:44And, you know, we do this all the time with players.
3:47And it's very hard when football is not being played and there's not as many like storylines going on and such to
3:53not dive all into this one storyline and like over inflate it in a way within your mind.
3:58But I'm trying to not do that. Obviously, I have priors.
4:01I think Jordan Tyson is a phenomenal prospect, right?
4:03So, you know, take this with a grain of salt.
4:06I still think he's draftable because what if he does get it right?
4:10I drafted Jordan Tyson last night in one of the $100.
4:13I finally got that to fill because they have a three entry $100 tournament.
4:17And I got my third entry in and I got Jordan Tyson in the 140s last night, which to me is certainly
4:23the best, the right kind of risk reward when I went pretty wide receiver heavy early.
4:27And so I knew that, you know, they could have coverage early in the season while Tyson's out.
4:32And then the question is like, what if he gets right?
4:35You know, this is not a it could end up being a zero for sure, but so could a lot of players in that range in general.
4:43So I don't want to, you know, overstate what that really means.
4:46But the way I kind of see it right now, you know, I really like Casey Concepcion.
4:51I liked him a lot as a prospect. I thought Concepcion was in the same tier as Makai Lemon when they came
4:57out, when a lot of people had, you know, Lemon sort of a tier above.
5:01I think Concepcion's a really good player. You know, Tyson should still be drafted behind him probably in that like, you know,
5:07after that, like Coker, Romeo Dobbs, Jaden Higgins apparently is banged up.
5:10We just learned that right before we hit play here.
5:13So I record here. So understand that that could be changing.
5:16But right after that tier, I think is where Jordan Tyson kind of belongs.
5:20So, you know, it's a risk tolerance thing. You got to do what you feel most comfortable doing.
5:25Now, look, I mean, the season starts later this year.
5:28So this could be like he could be playing as soon as week four or five.
5:32Realistically, I don't think that's going to happen. I think they slow play it.
5:36And, you know, I'm hoping they can figure this out the way that, you know, I mean, another good example of this
5:42idea of players are injury prone until they're not is Christian Watson, where it seems like no one's really talking about his
5:48hamstring stuff simply because he had a second half of last year that was brilliantly good.
5:53And he didn't get hurt. And now no one's really talking about this.
5:56But that's what I'm saying. Like this kind of thing can shift in an instant.
6:00I'm not dismissing it at all. I think it's a very real thing.
6:04I'm just trying to be level headed or as level headed as I can be.
6:08And to me, I think in that, like, I mean, if you can get them in the 140s, that's great.
6:14But, you know, after that, like group of wide receivers in the best ball environment, go for it.
6:19I think in a season long environment, I know there's a best ball show, but in a season long environment, you can
6:25even go a little bit earlier because obviously you're not taking zeros and you can drop the guy if you want to and pick up someone else.
6:32Or better yet, if you have an IR spot, you can just stop.
6:36Yep. So, you know, it's really bad news for Tyson.
6:38It's bad news for anyone who probably listens to my content.
6:41You know, this is a risk that we took on and it's something that, you know, came to fruition.
6:47I just hope and pray that, you know, the end of the season, we look back and Jordan Tyson is still a
6:53beast of a wide receiver and he's really productive in the Saints offense, which I think he was going to be really productive in the Saints offense.
7:00But this is the way it goes. Sometimes in fantasy football, you take risks.
7:04Sometimes they work out. Sometimes they don't. Let's hope they work out more than they don't.
7:09That range that you've identified does feel right. The next receiver going off the board is Rashid Shaheed at the top middle of the 12th round.
7:16I still think that's kind of coin flippy. I think you and I are both interested in in Shaheed.
7:21He's one of your higher exposed players. But then you're talking about Denzel Boston, Jalen Naylor, Malik Washington, Jalen McMillan.
7:27There's zero chance I'm taking Jalen Naylor over Jordan Tyson.
7:29You know, like I just there or even like Malik Washington.
7:32There's just not those just aren't the guys that that I'm going to get that excited about.
7:37I also think, again, like you should be looking at what your build looks like earlier on.
7:42I think that I could I could actually talk about something I wanted to talk about.
7:46On today's show, which is like, you know, thinking about what the early season means and how different the landscape looks in
7:52the early parts of the fantasy season versus what it's going to look like in the fantasy playoffs or, you know, week 10, week 11.
7:59Keep in mind that if Tyson's out the first five or six weeks and of course he can come back and get
8:05hurt and, you know, things can still go on.
8:08I'm not saying that like he comes back and then he's never going to get hurt again.
8:12That would be crazy to think that. But the nice part is, is when these guys have injuries that are bumping up into the season.
8:19You know, we have a lot of guys like a Mecca Buka, Luther Burden.
8:23I mean, Brees Hall just got banged up. It doesn't sound that bad.
8:27Those guys are have timelines that are like pushing right up into week one.
8:31Right. And it Kenyon Sadiq's another one where seems like he's getting better.
8:34But and they're saying that he's going to be available week one.
8:38Who knows what what ends up happening there? But the thing that I think that best ball managers should keep in mind,
8:44at least what I've been telling myself, and this is through, you know, talking to people over the last couple of years
8:50and kind of learning this game a little bit more.
8:53It makes a ton of sense, too. It's that in the early parts of the season, there's no bye weeks and everyone's healthy.
8:59Right. So, again, I told you about that team that I drafted yesterday where I got Jordan Tyson, you know, in the 140s.
9:05I think I had Carnell Tate as my wide receiver five or something like it was a wide receiver heavy room.
9:11And so that I went with or maybe four and then I got another wide receiver in the middle rounds.
9:17But regardless, it was a good wide receiver room like Amin Ross St.
9:20Brown's on it. Devontae Smith's on it. I think I got a wide out in round four.
9:25And so I sat there and I said, OK, you can I can take on Jordan Tyson a lot more easily right
9:31now because I might not even he might not have even found my lineup the first five or six weeks of the
9:37season, you know, and then it's not until players break down.
9:40By week start happening that you really need to think about that and worry about that more.
9:45I think in general, too, I'm in this place where I'm trying to not be so hyper focused on these players that are banged up right now.
9:52Like, I know there's the mantra of like, you don't want to draft injured guys.
9:56Everyone's going to get hurt at some point or has the risk of getting hurt.
10:01You don't want to start, you know, like like being delayed or start from behind with some of those players into the fantasy season.
10:07But you're getting discounts, man. Like there's a big difference between those guys staying at the exact same price and those guys
10:13not, which is exactly why I am mega overweight right now.
10:16Rich on like Kenyon Sadiq, for instance, right where he go.
10:19I've gotten him in like round 18 at times, right?
10:22Like in literal dart throw territory. We're going to be shocked when we look back at this season because it happens every single year.
10:29And you look at the players we were drafting in round 18 and the amount of zeros that are littered through our
10:35lineup from those players because they're just not doing anything.
10:38Maybe they give you one, you know, usable week.
10:40I have a hard time envisioning a world where Kenyon Sadiq doesn't give you at least like two or three usable weeks
10:46this year, you know, as long as he's healthy to some degree.
10:49And I know that's the big question mark, but you're getting him at such a discount in comparison to the other players being drafted in that area.
10:57So like, you know, I think it's a little bit different when you're talking about same tier players.
11:02Like I haven't really been touching a Mecca Buka as much.
11:05I have enough of him and I don't want to, you know, I'll gladly just take Zay Flowers over him or, you
11:11know, or Devante Smith or even Jalen Waddle. I think you can go with, even though he's a little bit banged up,
11:17but he seems healthier than where a book is at.
11:20But with late round guys, especially it's a lot easier to just take that on.
11:24So like I remember last year, a good example of this is Devon H and was really banged up or seemingly right.
11:30He had that like calf injury or something like that.
11:33And I had not drafted much Ollie Gordon throughout the summer.
11:36I was on the Jalen Wright train like into July.
11:39And then I just stopped drafting backup running backs from Miami.
11:42I had a lot of Devon H and last year, but then the the H and injuries happening and it's lingering.
11:48And I'm like, oh man, I got to overcorrect and just draft all of this Ollie Gordon without really thinking about like,
11:54what is the true bull case for Ollie Gordon?
11:56Right. And then in hindsight, of course, it was a terrible pick.
11:59Like all of those rosters I had with him, you know, we're not as strong.
12:04And I can say that a lot more confidently right now, given how like the last year's season was good.
12:09Right. You know, it's a little bit more difficult whenever you have a bad season and you made those stupid mistakes.
12:15But, you know, I'm trying to not overthink that aspect of things because generally it's actually not as bad.
12:20I think anecdotally as people make it seem. And again, I mean, best balls, a playoff game, right?
12:25Like you're trying to advance, of course, but there's other players that can help you advance and you want to have good
12:31talent and just monster monster teams as you get into the playoffs.
12:35Yeah. Caution is okay. The other example from last year that I remember is Matthew Stafford and the back injury and the
12:41question marks that we had around the not just Stafford himself, but the Rams pass catchers as well, where there was some
12:47sort of discount baked in there because we just didn't know the status of Matthew Stafford.
12:51And the Rams are just being extra careful with an older player.
12:54I've said this before, Jets specifically. My information is that they're just slow playing all of these injuries.
12:59Sadiq had a ton of money on today. Yeah.
13:02It's just what's the point, especially with soft tissue leg injuries, what's the point of having these guys sprint and run around
13:08in August when we have an 18-week violent gauntlet that is coming to us in a couple weeks?
13:13So, yeah. And again, the Pierce one where teams are giving you a timeline and those timelines aren't being met, that's when
13:19we should sound the alarm and ring the bell.
13:22And like Jordan Tyson is a sound the alarm situation.
13:24Like Jordan Tyson is a very scary situation where he's got he's had this bad hammy and it just keeps popping up.
13:30Alec Pierce is a very scary situation where he hasn't been practicing.
13:34You see clips of him like still limping a little bit.
13:37And then the team goes out and signs Keenan Allen.
13:40I mean, like, could it work out? Sure. Are there some drafts where I might get them?
13:44Maybe. But you have to have a pretty big discount because there are more obvious signals and signs that it's going in that direction.
13:51And then there's some teams like Todd Bowles is one of the worst when it comes to injury stuff and trying to
13:57figure out where things are at there. With that being said, I think it's pretty clear now that we know it's a turf toe thing for a Buka.
14:05And that's something that can linger a little bit.
14:07I wrote about that in the draft guide last week.
14:10So, yeah, I mean, overall, I'm trying to take a case by case.
14:14But understanding that, you know, teams are going to slow play things.
14:17I think they did that with like Devon H.
14:19And last year, for instance. But when there's like a very clear indication, I think Pierce and Tyson are the two that are most obvious here.
14:27When there's a very clear indication, that's when we should be really adjusting our priors a little bit and thinking about these players a little bit different.
14:34All right. I'm going to get into a couple of other things.
14:37I've found that late round picks right now are becoming pretty difficult to navigate.
14:41Now, I've been sort of like auto clicking Keenan Allen so much that that's why that was a really nice, you know,
14:47end of my day of him at least finding a team.
14:50I'm not even expecting Keenan Allen to dominate. But I mean, the dude is seeing good target shares in his past couple
14:56of spots, you know, amongst like relatively decent competition overall in Chicago and then with the Chargers.
15:01And now I would argue competition is weaker overall.
15:04I mean, Tyler Warren should get his. Josh Downs, I'm still excited about.
15:07But overall, you know, clicking Keenan Allen in round 19 over and over again, I think is a W overall.
15:13But, you know, Cyrus Allen, Caleb Douglas, Pat Bryant, those players have risen up draft boards quite a bit.
15:18And it's just difficult to really have a ton of conviction about round 18, round 19, round 20 players.
15:23And I think that if you're feeling that, I just want to shout that out, that you're not alone in feeling that.
15:29Have you experienced that too as you're drafting in the very late rounds?
15:33Yeah, I was going to say, I feel like I'm pivoting back to some of my early summer ideology of when in
15:39doubt in these later rounds, just leave a spot open for tight end and just click guys that we know the 12 revolution and the heavy formation meta.
15:47We know that's a thing in the NFL. Now we have Darren Waller even signing with Carolina, who becomes a reasonable enough dart towards the ends of draft.
15:54So, yeah, I'm just leaving room for some tight ends at the back end of my roster.
15:59And that's just a very comfortable click for me for guys that are just going to be on the field and scoring points.
16:06Yeah, agreed. And like even like Michael Mayer types will still go in the 20th round.
16:10And I think he's going to have some usable weeks.
16:13And then he obviously has contingent upside. If Brock Bowers, please, please, please don't.
16:17But if Brock Bowers were to get hurt this year, the tape was off today.
16:21The tape was off today. He like put duct tape on and then everything got better.
16:25You know, that was the with his with his PCL.
16:28But yeah, I agree. I think that the tight end stuff is very relevant and real that, you know, you don't want to necessarily like reach on.
16:35And I've had a really hard time without a stack drafting a player like Hunter Henry, you know, where I'm like, I
16:41know I can wait at tight end. I don't think he's going to be a difference maker necessarily.
16:46And if it's not in the stack, I'd rather just wait.
16:49You know, I can't say the same. I'm still drafting Terrence Ferguson in round 15, even though he's gotten steamed up a little bit.
16:56The two tight ends that I'm going to have the most exposure to more than likely are Terrence for definitely Terrence Ferguson and then probably Sadiq.
17:03Like I was saying before, just because his price keeps falling and tumbling.
17:07But I'm trying to not overthink this of a mid first round Uber athlete tight end who's very young, incredibly young, had pretty tough competition in college.
17:14And his age adjusted production profile was at the very least slightly above average.
17:18But I think it was just above average in general, right?
17:21In a tight end friendly offense to Frank Reich's offense has been historically really tight end friendly.
17:26I'm just trying to not overthink that. So I'm still going after those like sexy names in the in the later rounds
17:32of drafts at tight end because I think that that's just what you should be doing a tight end year in and year out for the most part.
17:40Depends on your roster build. Depends on that construction.
17:42But it's been the direction I go. And I think you can still take four.
17:46I mean, we've said that sort of all offseason.
17:49Even the guy like Tonjes has the contingent upside of an older tight end coming off of major injury.
17:54And again, a tight end friendly offense, like you said, like it's a very reasonable click in those late double.
18:00I mean, I've dropped four 10 and builds. I've gotten Eli Raritan as a last round pick, you know, and going that route.
18:06I love the Michael Mayer pick, though. I still think Michael Mayer is just like like he should probably be going around
18:12or two earlier than he than he is. I know it's a late round.
18:16It's not the biggest deal in the world. But the overall theme here is that the later round picks are becoming a
18:22little bit more difficult because, you know, on one hand, the market's reacting properly.
18:26And that's looking at, you know, beat writer notes and what they're saying out of camp.
18:30And they're saying, oh, I'll just draft this guy one or two rounds earlier because why not?
18:35It's the late rounds. But then also we're getting more clarity, right?
18:38Like we like now officially not that. I mean, I did all summer to be to be fair, but we like Pat Bryant more than Troy Franklin.
18:46There's going to probably be a bigger role for Bryant versus Franklin.
18:49Which makes tons of sense because Bryant can be a very good slot player for them and he can play out of 11 personnel.
18:56That was kind of the logic as to why I had him, you know, ranked ahead earlier this summer and was drafting him.
19:02But, you know, he's crushing it in camp. I didn't expect him to crush in camp the way that they're talking about him.
19:09But, you know, that's that's separated those players. There've been players that are separating with Caleb Douglas, separating from some of the rest of the pack.
19:16Although Chris Bell is apparently healthier than we all expected.
19:19So it just made it. Dolphins? Dolphins offensive line looked sneaky.
19:22Very competent. Yeah, the Dolphins offensive line is not that that bad.
19:25The fear for me with like an A-chan is still just the pass catching stuff and what that's going to look like, you know, in this offense.
19:32Yeah, I mean, this is more of a Malik Willis.
19:35Malik Willis. I mean, Malik Willis to me is that it's especially in season long, the easiest click on the board, period.
19:41Right. Right. In best ball, I kind of get the but I'm still draft.
19:45I'm still just drafting him in a lot of, you know, especially three quarterback builds.
19:49Yeah. That's like the perfect QB three. I'm with you.
19:52I think that that Miami can be decent enough.
19:54And then the other thing that I want to talk about.
19:57All of these injuries are making round six just suck.
20:00And I think it's a really good thing for what that means for back half of round one picks, because when you
20:06get into the late fifth and early sixth, some of those guys will tail into the early sixth round.
20:12And so you get before a big teardrop, you get that sixth player that the front half of the draft won't be able to get right.
20:19That's pretty important because like getting Jameer Gibbs, which I won't complain about draft slots too much on this show because I know it is truly random.
20:26But is it truly random for JJ Zachary? And I'm not sure after, you know, I'm doing like I'm like 130 millies
20:32in and I have like six Jameer Gibbs. I got like six one oh ones.
20:36I got a little bit more Jameer Gibbs just because I've gotten him at one oh two sometimes.
20:41But regardless, having that advantage, especially at the two three turn where now Malik neighbors is there and you feel better about him.
20:48And I think it's a nice advantage for, you know, to even things out a little bit more for the back half of round one.
20:55I felt very lucky today. I was in the one oh four and a millie and Carnell Tate.
21:00I got him in the six. It seems like I'm really high on Carnell Tate.
21:04I think I'm actually underweight on Carnell Tate. It's just, you know, he just popped up a couple of times in the last couple of drafts.
21:11But he fell. I say fell, but I got him in this in the sixth, like towards the end of the sixth.
21:17And then I somehow got Ramondre Stevenson in the seventh, which to me is just not going to happen as frequently anymore.
21:23Not just because of the way that backfield is trended, but also just because of the way that injuries have piled up
21:29and all of those guys just being pushed up.
21:32Right. The back half of the seventh round is I could argue that the back half of the eighth round is better
21:38and more appetizing than the back half of the seventh round right now.
21:41And ADP. So, I mean, it really, really drops off.
21:44And if you're experiencing that, if you're feeling that you're I think you're thinking logically about this.
21:49So when I saw you put six rounds on the sheet, I wanted to bring up two guys.
21:54One was Ramondre Stevenson. The other is Jonathan Brooks.
21:56And it feels like the populace is pulling them into the sixth round because let's say they're not going Burrow or Drake
22:02May and they're not happy with that teardrop at receiver after like Watson and Dunze.
22:07They're like, well, what are we going to do?
22:09And what they're doing is Brooks. Every week, Brooks stays healthy and looks good.
22:13Like he's I mean, he's up 40 picks since we started doing the podcast.
22:17Yeah, I'm to the point now in best ball where I think the gap between Brooks and Hubbard is too big.
22:23Hubbard's another one of those guys that we could have talked about earlier that, you know, his injuries kind of go bumping
22:29up into week one and maybe a link. And look, I'm very pro Jonathan Brooks.
22:33I was like my bags are packed with Jonathan Brooks.
22:36Trust me. But I'm trying to think logically like you're now taking on a pretty much more significant opportunity because I think
22:42the only reason why Brooks is being drafted where he's being drafted to your point is because there is this big drop off.
22:48People are like, what do I do? And people are like, sure, I'll take Jonathan Brooks.
22:53Why not? So like from that perspective, I can't really blame people.
22:56But when you look at a draft board and you're like, whoa, Jonathan Brooks is like a late sixth round pick right now.
23:02And like that's where he's going pretty frequently. I mean, it's it's objectively pretty rich.
23:06You know, I can say that comfortably because I have so much ninth and tenth round.
23:11You obviously say you have 10 tenth round. That's way different than right.
23:14Right. So like I don't need to force the issue.
23:17I think that if you need to, though, you can do it still because of that drop off that we're talking about.
23:23I'd still be drafting Armandre over him. You know, I'd still want that safety.
23:27But if you like if you go pretty running back heavy and he's like your RB three or four, I don't think it's the end of the world.
23:35And you're going for that upside. He's the guy, you know, that you need.
23:39But again, like there are drafts where I never envisioned myself being into Chuba Hubbard this year because I had Jonathan Brooks
23:45and him basically back to back during the summer.
23:47And, you know, there's a much wider gap in ADP at that point.
23:51But now it's, you know, awarded me to get some Chuba Hubbard.
23:54But again, if you haven't gotten Brooks, this isn't me being like, hey, look at my Brooks bags.
23:59This is me saying, like, if you haven't gotten Jonathan Brooks, I don't think it's like egregious to be drafting him there
24:05because there's so much ambiguity in that range. I mean, I still think going quarterback, going Armandre, going Jalen Warren, that's probably better.
24:12But I get it. I can understand the logic there.
24:14I mean, the name just still screaming at me in this area is Jalen Hurts.
24:19Jalen Hurts is down three picks. I know. I got him.
24:22I got him. I've got him in the late seventh pretty frequently.
24:25You know, like he's it's pretty wild to me, especially, you know, if you look at his numbers last year, they didn't use him much on design runs.
24:33Like he had like 40 fewer design runs last year.
24:35And they're already talking about how they want to up that this year.
24:39You know, there's already been reports about that, too.
24:41So, yeah, I mean, all of his pieces not named Devante Smith.
24:45You can backstack with. Yeah, you can gamble on Makai Lemon.
24:48Like, yeah, I mean, you can get Dontavian Wicks.
24:50Dontavian Wicks is really. I mean, that's another guy who's been rising Dontavian Wicks.
24:54So I'm still I've still clicked because, again, just kind of like a dead zone of players.
24:59Once you get into round 14 to 20, you know, it's still it's still in the 150s for Dontavian Wicks.
25:04So like you said, it's not like. Right. It's not the cost.
25:08I think he's going to be used to. Yeah.
25:10All right. Let's get to our guest today. I talked to Chad Candles.
25:14He's a YouTube streamer on his channel at Chad Candles.
25:17This is one of the great things about becoming a best ball bro is kind of getting introduced to the best ball
25:23community a little bit more and meeting people that probably wouldn't have met if I were only doing.
25:28You know, season long content or dynasty content or what have you.
25:31And this conversation was awesome. Chad's super sharp. We talked about preseason hype, how to handle those injuries with the weird timelines like we were just talking about.
25:39Talked more about closing line value, some CLV talk like I did with Sam Sherman last week.
25:43Game stacking, how he kind of approaches the week 17 stuff.
25:46So much more. It was a great conversation. Great back and forth.
25:50So without further ado, here is that interview with Chad Candles.
25:53So Chad, we get a lot of like crazy hype from beat reporters this time of year.
25:57As you know, everyone's in the best shape of their life.
26:01Everyone's crushing it in camp. But, you know, I asked this last week and I think it's just an important thing to to talk about and discuss.
26:08Like, how do you manage what beat reporters are saying and what's coming out of these camps in order to not get
26:14like too overconfident in players that could be zeros?
26:17Because, look, there's a lot of like day three wide receivers right now that are getting a ton of love.
26:22And we know statistically a lot of day three wide receivers won't do anything.
26:26So how do you kind of balance that? Yeah, again, I listened to Sherman's answer to this and it's hard to come up with much different.
26:33These beat reporters get like way hyped into things that as, you know, best ball players and drafters we're not as excited about.
26:40And usually it's like big contested catches like that looks really cool.
26:43And the beat reporters get really excited about it.
26:45And you get that self-fulfilling, like the players that are getting hype in the algorithm are who the beat reporters are going
26:51to write about because it promotes it. And you end up in just like vortex of specific players.
26:56The more actionable stuff is who's running with who, you know, the sort of snap counts, that kind of thing.
27:02But again, just like players looking good to beat reporters.
27:05I mean, they're all going to look awesome. Like you said, like in shorts and without pads, like this is the time of the year for all that.
27:12Yeah. Again, just try to like focus on the stuff that seems a little more actionable than just the hype machine.
27:18Yeah. And that's interesting too. Like I remember when I was prospecting some of these day three guys, like, you know, like
27:24a Caleb Douglas was definitely someone that could just get downfield and he has that ability.
27:29And I'm not surprised that like he would look good.
27:32But I think one of the more interesting guys is like Jacoby Lane right now, who's just getting tons and tons of steam.
27:38And obviously there's like kind of an opening in Baltimore and I get all of that.
27:42But if you go back and you watch him in college, the zap bottle was like pretty lukewarm on him.
27:48Like we didn't say he's a smash, didn't like necessarily hate him or anything like that.
27:52You know, he's hit an early declare profile. The one thing was that like Lane always had these like acrobatic catches, like
27:58one of the best at doing that in this class.
28:01And so to your point, like that's the perfect kind of, I'm not saying he's going to be a zero this year.
28:07I think he's going to get some run, but you know, I'm trying to not like take it too far based on what they're saying out of camp.
28:15And then obviously he does what he does in the preseason, finds the end zone and, you know, he's just getting steamed up every more.
28:22So yeah, it's a hard thing to balance, but I do think that, you know, it's a lot easier for these like
28:28beat reporters to say these things without it actually having as big of a deal from a fantasy football perspective, you know, in total.
28:35The lane stuff I'm like, I'm a little more into because again, I chased Tez Walker.
28:39That didn't work out. We're all in the hunt for something better than Bateman like he's gone.
28:44And the fact that he does seem like he's drawing more praise than Surratt feels like maybe there's finally something to this.
28:50I don't know. They took two receivers. I don't know how committed they are to Bateman ending the year as wide receiver too.
28:56So I've been buying the lane stuff and with Caleb Douglas, I like that.
29:00I'm a Dolphins fan. It seems like the Douglas thing is, is kind of real.
29:04Although Chris Bell just got activated, which is like way faster than I was expecting.
29:08A little bit surprised there. But yeah, those two examples, I'm, I'm buying the hype.
29:12So maybe I'm ignoring my own advice here a little bit.
29:15No, but the thing is though, is that it all comes down to cost too in the end.
29:20And to me, I don't think that they're getting so out of hand from a cost perspective that you're taking on some insane opportunity cost and drafting them.
29:28Right. It's more so like I'm trying to not, you know, get them in every draft or go like that route.
29:34You know what I mean? By, by, by just kind of buying into the steam.
29:38So it's a good call out though. We're getting a lot of injuries right now too.
29:43Even before we started recording this earlier this morning.
29:45Now this will be out on Wednesday. So we're going to know a lot more, but like even Brees Hall has an apparent groin injury.
29:52And a lot of these returns put these guys like at week one, you know, there's just players that like seemingly their
29:58timelines are just like at week one. We don't know what to do.
30:02So I guess my question for you from a best ball perspective, you know, obviously in season long, you can play someone
30:08else on your bench and there's no bye weeks going on.
30:11It's a little bit easier or, you know, you can, you can, uh, you know, manipulate your lineup if you do miss on that player.
30:18But in best ball, it's a little bit different.
30:20You know, you're taking on these guys and you can't use the waiver wire to do anything to make up for someone who is hurt and not playing.
30:28So my question to you is, are you generally leaning into those falling values with those injured players or do you avoid them completely?
30:35Or do you just take a case by case?
30:37I've sort of lived by the axiom, like risers don't rise enough.
30:40Fallers don't fall enough. And maybe that's more performance than injury, but I feel like it's still true.
30:45At least some of the time, I think for the injured players, I'm a lot more worried if it's someone who is
30:51in like a training camp fight or, you know, a rookie who we think might come along later.
30:56Cause that could really delay things. Lemon is the big example for me.
31:00I have a, I now have like a lot of concern with Makai lemon.
31:04Is he, you know, going to be ready week one?
31:07It sounds like probably not at this point. I'm not entirely sure if they're humming along, if Wix is playing well, if
31:13they're in the playoff hunt, like, are they really going to ramp him up as fast as we want?
31:18I don't know. It just seems like getting out of the gate slow for some of these guys on these competitive teams, the younger guys might be tough.
31:26The players who have more of a mode around them.
31:28I'm not worried. The sort of like Metcalf and downs, if I can get a little bit of, I should Metcalf and Pittman.
31:35I think both of them are not practicing. If I can get a dip on them, I'm not really worried.
31:40They're not, they don't have any competition breathing down their neck.
31:43They're going to be fine. So I think for the veterans, I'm a little less concerned about for the younger players.
31:49I'm going to be a lot more cautious. Yeah.
31:52Makes a lot of sense. I've had a really hard time clicking lemon for, for the same reasons.
31:57And I mean, what could go wrong with a lot of Dontavian Wicks, right?
32:01Like what, what could possibly go wrong with my best ball season with like 16% Dontavian Wicks, right?
32:06It feels like one of those, you look at a lineup that's like made the playoffs and you're like, oh, why is Dontavian Wicks on this team?
32:13Oh, a hundred percent. A hundred percent. You get a team that advances and you're like, oh yeah, this is, oh my gosh.
32:19Why did I draft Dontavian Wicks? Why didn't I do that?
32:22Another question I have, and this is one that I talked with Sam last week about, but I think it's, you know,
32:28really important to the point about injuries and getting those falling values, but also injuries that we assumed like a Malik neighbors.
32:35Closing line value. Some people make a big deal out of it.
32:38I've kind of had this take where I've, I made a big deal out of it last year.
32:43I feel like I'm making lots of a deal about it this year, but if you drafted like a lot of Stefan Diggs, right?
32:49Let's say that you're at like 14 or 15% Stefan Diggs and you're way ahead of the market and you got him
32:56at a really reduced price compared to where he's going now.
32:59Or Jonathan Brooks, obviously, because the Chuba Hubbard, just another one of those injuries that's, you know, going right up against that week one timeframe.
33:06Are you done drafting those players because you know that you captured that CLV and you know that those lineups are going
33:12to have at least some advantage with those guys?
33:14Or do you continue drafting them even though they are at an increased price?
33:18I'm definitely going to still be taking those players who have been risers.
33:22At the end, I will just have different combinations with those players for the same reason.
33:26I'm not going to avoid players who have risen that I was kind of out on.
33:30Yeah, I only had four and a half percent Diggs.
33:33I thought I had like eight to 10% and I'm like, well, I'm not going to not take him.
33:38Like I have to take him now. I'm just going to have to hope that my, you know, whatever round eight pick is better than the round 10.
33:46But you know what I'm saying? Like the different like variations you get with the players.
33:51I don't want to just say like, oh, well, if I like, if I still like the player, I don't want to
33:57now start fading a player who's been a riser.
33:59Again, going back to something I do believe is that risers don't rise enough.
34:03Followers don't fall enough. I think I'm just going to get different players.
34:07And again, at the end of the day, you know, you make these finals, you know, BBM, for example, I'm still only
34:13going to be playing 660, whatever people. I'm not, I'm not running a giant GPP where I'm worried that I have some
34:19kind of like huge disadvantage of, of the combination.
34:21So if it's a player you need, I feel like it's a player you need.
34:25I'm not going to start fading them. Yeah. That's kind of where I've come around to.
34:30It's like, is there an advantage? Sure. But at the same time, the way that these playoffs are structured and the way
34:36that this all works, it's, you know, like Malik neighbors going in route late round two, as opposed to early round four or something like that.
34:43Like, of course we would all rather have Malik neighbors in round four, but number one, if he's the guy that you
34:49need, then that doesn't really matter because you're getting in your number two.
34:53You're getting different combinations as you noted. And those combinations are, you know, guys, I mean, we have no idea how that's
34:59going to just fall into place, right? Like the team that drafted Malik neighbors in some of your drafts in round four
35:05or got a crazy discount on him. If he, if he fell to round five or something like that, how do we
35:11know that the rest of their team isn't littered with injured players?
35:14Yeah, they ever keep your salt. Like, you know, right, right, right.
35:18That's one thing that I feel like I've learned talking to people like you too, is like, I just feel like it's
35:24overthinking it a little bit by just ignoring a player who, you know, you're doubling down on.
35:28Like if you're doubling down on Malik neighbors like that, that's just a very risky thing to do because it's Malik neighbors.
35:35Yep. And I did this last year. I was like out on rushy rice.
35:38I was like, no, I don't really like him.
35:41I was worried about this. I'm a lawyer by trade.
35:44I should have known nothing ever happens and nothing happened.
35:46And I got bailed out by him getting hurt.
35:49I was absolutely wrong. The fade was bad, but like I could have had like a really, really, you know, disastrous fade
35:55on a guy just because I was stubborn about not wanting to take him like around and a half ahead of where you could have gotten him.
36:02Yeah. Yeah. You know, this also kind of like leads into the conversation of like unique combinations.
36:07Are you somebody who, and this isn't on, you know, I sent you a show sheet beforehand just to kind of go over what we generally talk about.
36:15But like, are you a unique combos guy? Like you're in the beginning of, you're at the one, two turn and you
36:21just take like a late second guy, like a Nico or something like that, because he'll fall to that side of the board.
36:27And then I'm not a huge, unique combos, bro.
36:30Maybe more so in the daily games. I'm more interested in that most of so many of the fantasy relevant players and,
36:36you know, best ball and 18 round draft are getting drafted.
36:39Whereas in like the six person, six round drafts, you really can get a pretty big edge by going like a little off script.
36:46Yeah. I'll do it sometimes if I want a particular player and combo that I like, but my problem is, is like,
36:52you know, a hundred, you, you get 150 bullets in these large contests.
36:55You know, there's 12 draft slots is the one time I do pull up this player.
37:00The one time it's going to advance and like get to a, like you, you, you run into this like really narrow
37:06path where, and then it has to get to the final that I get to one every eight years is like this weird combo.
37:12And then like, I don't know it, I'll do it sometimes, but it won't be for the purpose of getting unique.
37:18It'll just be because like, well, I actually think these two players are, are good.
37:22I didn't. Yeah. Like it's, it's the, it's just the optimal thing to do and the optimal choice.
37:27Like it's not, or it's not suboptimal. I should say it's actually the most odd, but like today, for instance, I did
37:33a Billy today and I was at the, in the 11 spot.
37:37I took Kenneth Walker and chase Brown. Right. And like, to me, it's all kind of one giant tier.
37:42And, but at the same time, I would, I would almost guarantee you that there's fewer of that combo just simply because
37:48most first rounders, you know, both of them are technically second rounders in ADP.
37:52But I don't really see a big difference between like Kenneth Walker and Saquon Barkley.
37:56Like, there's just no reason for me to like force that issue.
37:59So that's really the only time that I would, I would really push that.
38:03I also, I know that we're kind of going on a tangent here, but like, I do think that this plays into
38:09what we were talking about earlier with some of these overhyped rookies to a degree where one thing that I'm trying, and
38:15I'm wondering if you think about this at all, or if, if, if like, this is top of mind for you, but
38:22like, you know, Cyrus Allen getting the love that he's getting.
38:25And obviously there's still a low probability chance that this like really, really works out or Jacoby Lane or Caleb Douglas, whatever.
38:31Right. But with that being said, with these contests, like the Millie that's been going on since May, a lot of those
38:37guys just weren't drafted at all for the first couple of months of, of best ball season.
38:41And so by drafting them now, even if you're only at like three to 5%, you're probably going to end up being
38:48above market to a degree, maybe 5% or so just because no one was drafting them earlier on.
38:53Right. Yeah. Yeah. I think that, I think that makes a lot of sense there.
38:57And I've, I've been, Cyrus Allen is a tough one for me because I've been stubborn, but he's still only like a 16th round pick.
39:04And there's so many bad picks there. Like, right.
39:06Right. It's like, no, that never works. Like you'll never get the late round chiefs receiver never pans out.
39:11And I just like list all the bad ones.
39:14And it's like, but what if it, what if this works?
39:17Yeah. What if this is the one, I mean, I went into this, this prospect season and after the draft where I
39:23was like, and I said this on so many podcasts, I was like, guys, this wide receiver class is going to be the wild west.
39:30Like this is the day two picks, especially like I liked the top four, you know, and Tyson and Carnell Tate and McKay Lemon and Casey Concepcion.
39:37But after that, I was like, put them in a hat and just draw randomly.
39:41You know, my tears were really big and we were going to see someone emerge out of nowhere just because of the
39:48volume of day two wide receivers we had. But it's, it's, it was tough to figure out.
39:52I mean, we might not see any, but I think we're, we're on the verge of, you know, the striplings, the, the,
39:58uh, you know, the, the Caleb Douglas, maybe for your, for your dolphins.
40:02We'll see. We'll see. But I think we're on the verge of, of seeing one of them.
40:07We were so unsettled on who was actually going to be a good pick in this sort of weaker class.
40:12Yeah. But then we're all like, no, there's no possible way that, you know, this, that this player we weren't in on is better than, you know, right.
40:20Right. Right. Right. Right. Right. Exactly. Like it's, it's silly to me to like latch on to priors that like, I'm not,
40:26if I were to redo a rookie draft right now, I still would not be drafting design.
40:31Stribbling over Casey Concepcion over Makai lemon, you know, whatever.
40:33But I have no pro I think I had him at wide receiver eight to 10 post draft stripling.
40:39I would have no problem putting him at like wide receiver five right now.
40:43I think that's a very valid thing to do just based on the info.
40:46Like we get more information and it was seriously just chaos, you know, after those, the big four, in my opinion, some people might like Omar Cooper.
40:54Some people might like Denzel Boston, whatever. I get it.
40:57I get it. But like, it seems not egregious at all to just react to something that's just flat in nature, you know?
41:03Yeah. Let's look at game stacking. So something that a lot of people always have questions about to you.
41:08How important is game stacking? Like, are you trying to get at least one playoff game slash week 17 bring back for every stack you complete?
41:15Or do you feel like when you do that, you often become a little bit more suboptimal with your choices?
41:21Yeah. You know, you sent me the show sheet and I was thinking about this one a lot.
41:26And the answer is yes. I want to be stacking these week 17 games because at the end of the day, that's
41:32where all the money is in these best ball contests.
41:35Like we need to win week 17. But the problem is, is even if you know which games go off, it's very
41:41hard to like pick a the right pieces from it.
41:44And B, you know, you pair together players at a higher rate.
41:47They're completely uncorrelated for the entire season until you get to that week 17 game.
41:51So what I don't like to do is constantly pair the same like late round player with the same early round player.
41:57Like I don't always want to be taking, say, Greg Dulcich on my Josh Allen teams because I'm like, OK, this is the week 17 bring back.
42:05Because then it's going to be just like those two are going to be overrepresented together.
42:09But I do want to be thinking about week 17 stacks.
42:12But I worry that there's this like mantra like, oh, I'm going to break the tide of the week 17 game.
42:18And then you end up just like pairing two completely uncorrelated players together a lot.
42:22But by the same token, I week 17, like Sherman's BBM team, he had he had Purdy.
42:27And across from that, he had Caleb. Yep. Or excuse me, he had Luther Burden.
42:31And that was like, you know, what what he needed to win the contest.
42:35Right. Right. So it's obviously super important, but it's really hard to figure out like who in a given game is who you need.
42:41And, you know, are you constructing suboptimally? Like you said, I'm just like breaking the tie to a week 17 stack that
42:48otherwise doesn't matter the rest of the year. Yeah.
42:50This is one of those things for me where it's like completely anecdotal where I had, you know, I got I had
42:56a top 50 milli team last year and it was correlated.
42:59And it had that the same stat, same San Francisco, Chicago stack, not burden, but, you know, had that game stacked and
43:05you go through it and you're like, OK, I get why we're doing this.
43:09But again, it's like once you're there, you're in it.
43:12And so that's the big question, right? Like you don't you don't want to just force the issue necessarily because you got to get there.
43:19But I do like the point of not of making sure that you're not just getting like the same combos over and over again.
43:25I think that's really, really important. Yeah. When we look back on the season, this is another one that everyone's been been
43:31talking about in terms of, you know, the optimal strategy to take, especially with people going a little bit more robust RB this year.
43:38But like when we look back, what do you think we will say was the optimal strategy?
43:43Was it robust RB, zero RB, no strategy at all?
43:46How do you feel about it? So what my answer is and what I'm doing are two different things, which is not great.
43:52I think I think this zero RB is going to work, but I lack the courage to do it enough.
43:57Yeah, it's very hard to properly do it. So robust RB feels really safe.
44:01And if everyone stays healthy, I think zero RB, excuse me, I'm robust RB will be the best.
44:06I mean, running backs are the most projectable. They score the most touchdowns, et cetera.
44:10We just haven't had that high profile running back injury or injuries where there has been a clear backup to step in and absorb the role.
44:18And in retrospect, if Jonathan Taylor goes down, it's going to be very clear.
44:22Oh, you should have been taking McGowan or Giddens.
44:24Like if those guys smash. The problem is, is there's 12 running backs we're taking in the first two rounds.
44:30We don't know who the backup is on a bunch of them.
44:33And so you get to the end of drafts and you're like, oh, well, or you're trying to build a zero RB team.
44:39You could be like right about a lot of things and just not get, you know, not put all the pieces together.
44:45Right. So I think sort of like in the abstract, I think there probably will be some really good zero RB picks.
44:51Like if you're building around like your tank Dells, your Ray Davis is like some of those guys are likely to be hits.
44:58But like they're going to be zeros a lot.
45:00Like they're going to be zeros for best ball more often than not.
45:04So again, it's hard in a contest where you only have 150 bullets to like create the exact funnel down.
45:09And then you also have to get the other stuff right too.
45:13Like you have to pick the right receiver. I don't know.
45:16So it's very uncomfy. I think, I think zero RB has a good shot to work this year because there are really
45:22nice receiver values because everyone's pushed the running back so far, but it's very hard for me to like comfort.
45:27I do build zero. I build like all the different, different structures.
45:31I'm going to get about a thousand drafts done.
45:33I'm not going to do only robust RB, but true zero RB is probably the one I do the fewest.
45:39And it's usually from like draft spots, three through five, just the way the boards go, which I also don't love, but
45:45that's a whole other tangent because it's very comfy to start with your like, your Jamar Chase, your Drake London, and then
45:51whatever your third round wide receiver du jour. And then you're like, okay, I'll take, you know, Judkins or two.
45:56Like these kind of build themselves down. It could be exactly what you need.
46:00But I, again, this is, I'm almost talking to myself here.
46:03I'm like, I kind of want to try it over on the right side of the board a little more than maybe I'm doing.
46:10Yeah, that's a good point. Yeah. That's a really good point.
46:13I also think that like what you're saying too is sort of this, like, do you think that the general best ball
46:19audience feels like in order to win in best ball, your lineup has to be perfect as opposed to the lineup just has to be like really good.
46:27I do agree from like a zero RB perspective.
46:29If you were to think about like what ends up being an optimal way or an optimal lineup at the end of
46:35the season in hindsight, you know, if you were to play best ball for the season, you know, like, like just looking
46:41back and saying like, oh, I could play this, this running back.
46:45Like what would that ideal lineup look like? I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a decent amount of zero RB type
46:51builds because, you know, if a running back gets hurt and a backup steps in and all of a sudden you have
46:57these very cheap, you know, backup running backs that, you know, very good wide receivers and tight ends and such.
47:02But then at the same time to your point, I think what you're kind of describing is this idea that, you know,
47:09while you're drafting, you're recognizing that you can still hit a 90th percentile outcome and still win and still do really, really
47:15well because in that playoff week, you know, you could hit on pits and then get that really good week 17 correlation matchup.
47:21And then all of a sudden you're good to go.
47:24Like, would you agree with that? That it's sort of like a what's optimal from like a mathematical looking back perspective.
47:30All of these games already were played versus you're making these decisions right now.
47:33It's really easy to say, Hey, McGowan's the dude that we wanted.
47:37Oh, it ended up being, you know, DJ Giddens.
47:39Yeah. No, I agree. I agree with you on that as well.
47:43And maybe that's part of my issue is like feeling that I need to be perfect on everything.
47:48And you don't, I mean, you know, two years or was, I guess three years ago now, the winning PBM team had
47:54like Pacheco and like round six and he like didn't play like, you don't need to nail everything right.
47:59The way that these things are structured too. It's like a lot of teams that make it to the finals barely got
48:05out around one, you know, that it's not, it's, it's not going to just be this like perfect linear.
48:10Oh, I just dominated throughout the playoffs type of scenario and situation.
48:14There's going to be some luck involved. There's going to be some other factors that are involved that shows you that it doesn't have to be perfect.
48:21So I think it's a good thing to bring up because, you know, a lot of people are like, oh, I can't,
48:27you know, screw this one up because my team has, it's like, okay, yeah, you ideally don't want to take zeros.
48:33I totally agree with that. But then at the same time, you know, if your lineup is not ideal, you can still do.
48:39Okay. You know, you can, you can still win out one place that I've had a lot of struggle with, like this
48:45is more so with the late round draft guide, I'd say than anything else.
48:49But, you know, I'm, I'm giving players to avoid in that guide.
48:53And I, you know, I'm giving a couple of loves like top 30 wide receivers.
48:57And I just don't, you know, I have a confidence level of one, you know, I rate confidence levels for these things
49:03and, uh, and for these players to target and avoid.
49:05And these guys have confidence levels of one, because I look at the top 30 wide receivers and I'm like, I don't
49:12really mind any of them to a degree. Are there any fades for you in that range?
49:16Or are you kind of in the same boat?
49:19For me, it's just been a Buka weirdly enough.
49:21I don't know why I, I maybe it's just, I'm salty.
49:24Cause I was taking a ton of him in the big board last year.
49:28And I absolutely hated that he went to Tampa.
49:31Like I thought it was terrible. I was also a bit of a Macmillan truther.
49:35I was like, they don't need him. They have Macmillan.
49:38Like, what are we doing here? Then I kind of let separation score Twitter get to me last season where, you know,
49:44he was producing, but like people were like, he shouldn't be, he's getting lucky all this, that, and the other.
49:49I don't know. It's part of it is like, I, I don't know.
49:53I, I, the Tampa Bay did sort of fall on their face last year.
49:57I mean, Baker got hurt. The whole thing kind of had systemic collapse and now Evans is gone.
50:02So should I be in on a Buka? Maybe, but I also feel like, I feel like there's a chance Godwin's just
50:08a wide receiver one and we're getting him 50 picks later.
50:11So I'm a little bit heavier on Godwin. Hey book, a book is probably the closest thing I have to a full
50:17fade now with the toe injury stuff. If he starts falling again, he's a guy that I'm not necessarily worried about his role.
50:23I don't really think there's, although, you know, you could quibble.
50:26He was maybe losing a little bit of work at the end of last year.
50:30Again, last year is so hard to judge with the injuries and the team just kind of collapsing.
50:35But yeah, Buka is probably the one guy I've been out on.
50:39Do you think that if his ADP does fall a little bit more?
50:42I mean, it's falling slightly. It hasn't been like dramatic, but like, do you think that you would end up buying back in at least a little bit?
50:50I might use it as a chance to buy back in.
50:53But again, it's like going back to it before, if I get him at 35 versus 30 or, you know, it's like,
50:59well, now I'm just pairing him with different people.
51:02I like all of them. So it's, it's yeah.
51:04Yeah. I mean, it makes you feel good. It makes you feel like, Hey, I got a discount.
51:09Yeah. Yeah. No, I feel you. If you're not into a player, don't, don't force the issue necessarily.
51:14Right. One other thing I want to ask is with draft rooms now, just having so much more information on, on sleepers and such.
51:21Do you have any players right now with them?
51:23To me, it's becoming a little bit more difficult to find like your favorite late round picks, right?
51:28Do you have any favorites that are, that are going really late right now in these drafts?
51:33So I was getting warm on Caleb Douglas. I was taking him.
51:36Um, yeah, I see him going like round 14 sometime.
51:39I'm like, yeah, we're starting to get pricey. Pat Bryant.
51:42I don't feel like has risen enough. Yes. Agreed.
51:44You can still get him late, which I find very surprising.
51:47And I don't know if that's because again, the Cyrus Allen, uh, Jacoby lane and Caleb hype has kind of pushed them up.
51:54I would say Pat Bryant's a big one. Those are like the late guys I want to be in on.
51:59And I'm going to give you a gross name.
52:02I want to hear, I want to hear the grossest name.
52:05Give me the grossest name. You can, yeah, let's hear it.
52:08Stopped clicking him, but I was taking some Zavian Thomas.
52:10Yeah. I've clicked some Zavian Thomas too. All right.
52:13We'll be Zavian Thomas bros together. Let's go. Let's go.
52:16I don't know. It, it seems like he, he could carve himself out a little bit of a little bit of a role.
52:22I mean, last I saw on Twitter, uh, he was getting yelled at by Ben Johnson for like messing up a pre-stat motion.
52:28And I'm like, I don't know. I've been literally, I haven't heard from him since.
52:33So I hope he's not like running with the fives, but you know.
52:36Yeah. I mean, he was from my perspective as like a prospect profiling perspective, he was gadgety, but I think gadgety can, you know, he's super, super fast.
52:44Gadgety can work in a Ben Johnson offense. Right?
52:46Like I kind of viewed him as like their, and I know they have Khalif Raymond, but like this could be his new Khalif Raymond type player.
52:54So I've thrown a dart his way and like bring backs or bear stacks because it's not like the bears are super easy to stack in that game.
53:02Week 17 game is like impossible to stack against Detroit.
53:04So it's, it's a way to at least get some player, you know, in that, in that offense, you know, as a,
53:10as a bring back or part of the stack.
53:13Yeah. I mean, you talk about a guy who might get more of a role as the season goes on.
53:18I mean, who knows? I could use them in the running game a bit.
53:22Exactly. Exactly. I could see it. I could see it.
53:25I'm assuming your bold take here at the end is not going to be about Xavier and Thomas, but I would love
53:31to hear a bold take for this 2026 fantasy season.
53:34All right. My bold take. I think Malik Willis finishes as a top six quarterback.
53:38I love that. I love that. Yeah. You know, Malik Willis.
53:41Yeah. Are you, is there any hesitation for you from a basketball perspective?
53:45Because you obviously, you know, you can't, you were like, is there any worry, I guess from there?
53:50Like, I haven't really had much concern about like him being benched or something.
53:54No. Yeah. So I've, I've gotten this wrong. Cause I didn't think there was any worry that Justin Fields would get benched last year.
54:00And it feels a little like, well, true. Justin Fields has never been tried.
54:04Like we can, we can get there. We just need someone with the courage.
54:08Like, I don't know. I think Malik, I really don't think there's much of a Malik Willis bench risk.
54:13I really don't think that's the case. It, you know, he looked again, I don't like looking too much into preseason performance,
54:19but he looked competent moving that offense. Like it did feel like he had command of the team.
54:24I don't know. I, I don't have too much worry.
54:27Yeah. It could be a bit up and down.
54:30The dolphins are projected to be really lousy, but if they're willing to stick to the plan of having him run the
54:36ball, like, you know, 10, 12 times a game, like he could, you know, he could have a monster year.
54:41He could have a thousand yards rushing. And yeah, if the passing game isn't complete, his, you know, his one trait that
54:47everyone says, well, at least he's good at like the deep ball.
54:51I think he's good more than just that, but that, that sounds pretty fantasy friendly to me.
54:55Like if he doesn't need high volume, like, oh no, all he can do is throw deep touchdowns.
55:00Like, oh, all right. Sounds great. They're going to be losing and he's throwing deep.
55:04Like we're inside me up. Right. Right. So yeah, I'm in on Malik Willis.
55:08Could be bad. Also like, do you find yourself going three QB often?
55:12Or so like, I feel like that's another like sort of insulation with, with Malik is that, you know, even if he
55:18gives you 11 weeks or something like that, and you know that you're getting the mobility, you still have the backup of a couple of other quarterbacks.
55:25If you're going with three quarterback builds and you still have a couple of stacks that those teams do advance.
55:31Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I feel like he's, he's perfect for, for three QB builds.
55:35Like if I don't have to rely on him every week, if he does have, you know, that one week where he just gets completely shut down.
55:42Yeah. Totally agree. Chad, this was great, man. Let everyone know where they can find you, what you've been doing and where
55:48they can watch some of your content. Yeah. Chad Candle's YouTube channel.
55:52I stream best ball drafts 8 30 AM every weekday.
55:54And yeah, I'd love for you to, to come on by and hang out in the mornings.
55:59It's a good time. Yeah, it's great. You're doing awesome work.
56:02So I really appreciate the time and you hopping on everyone else.
56:05Make sure you're subscribed to this podcast. Subscribe to the YouTube channel.
56:09You can watch this on YouTube as well at late round FF.
56:12Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in. This is an I heart podcast guaranteed human.
