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0:33You're about to listen to the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube.
0:37If you'd like to catch the show live this season, you can head to the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel at YouTube.com slash atLateroundFF.
0:44We'll be live every Friday at 1 p.m. Eastern.
0:47Without further ado, here's this week's episode. Welcome in.
0:50Welcome in. It's the The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:53JJ, no hat. No hat. No hat today. Pete Tripp in chat was right.
0:57He said, no hat is a lock. And he was right.
1:00There's no hat. It's like he was in my room with me while I was prepping for this.
1:06Yeah, that would be awkward. Welcome in, everyone. David Kitchen here alongside JJ Zacharyarysen.
1:10And we are going to be walking you through this week on this special show that we have, JJ.
1:15I'm just feeling so good right now. I don't know what it is.
1:19Maybe it's Friday. Maybe it's a lack of sleep from this week.
1:23But I just have a really good feeling that Sunday is going to go well for all the Late-Round crew.
1:29I mean, that would be great because I genuinely hope that people, because my teams have started out really well.
1:35I said it on the sleeper show. The sleeper show has been very mid to start the year.
1:41I admit it. Like I want those picks to be better.
1:44And I've had good hits in the past in the sleeper show.
1:48Hopefully with more data, they get better and better.
1:50And I said this on the sleeper show, but like the draft stuff has gotten really well so far.
1:56So I'm hoping that that continues. So if your feeling ends up being correct, then I will have a lot of 4-0 teams, which would be awesome.
2:04Yeah, we don't want to jinx anything. So let's just hope that the draft guide picks still continue.
2:10Speaking of draft guide, I want to just give a shout out to everyone that has already filled back, filled out the feedback survey for the draft guide.
2:18We had, I mean, you just never know. I told you this like in our meeting this morning, like you never know
2:25when you put out a survey, because I'm not like really a fill out a survey guy.
2:30Yeah. We had so many people that have already filled out a survey and we're already preparing for next year.
2:36JJ is holed up in his mom's basement for the, you know, the remainder of the season.
2:41And, you know, myself, Brandon Gadula, we're, we're kind of looking forward to, to what next year's draft guide could look like.
2:48And we, we look forward to that, JJ. Yeah.
2:50Yeah. I appreciate all the feedback and we're definitely using that feedback.
2:54You know, we get a lot of stuff. People in discord know this for sure.
2:58Members have known this, that there's, there's constant feedback coming in of like wanting improvements, you know, right now and such.
3:05And I get it. I understand you want different rankings iterations.
3:08You want this, you want that. We're trying to do as much as we can, but it's in season.
3:14We're kind of at the point where it's like, this is what we're offering.
3:18This is what we got this year. But all that feedback is really helpful to make late round the best place that we can possibly make it.
3:26Yeah. If, and if anything, like the fancy industry just continues to grow.
3:30I told you, I was shocked at how many people fill out the survey that are playing like in guillotine leagues or chop leagues, the limiter leagues.
3:38Like they're like just the little tentacles of fantasy continue to just branch out.
3:43And so that means a lot of people have, you know, many different needs.
3:47And we hope that the process and, and the players that we talk about in the draft guide that JJ mentions that, that helps you out.
3:55And you were helping us, helping us out by filling out that survey.
3:59Speaking of helping us out, we are looking for someone in the social media department, JJ, to help us out.
4:05I'm not going to say like they need to be young, you know, cause I'm not an ageist, but I will say I'm an unk.
4:12Like I'm very much an unk. So I don't like, I don't venture onto the tick tock streets much.
4:18I do. I'm a, I'm a big tick tock consumer.
4:21Yeah. Like I, I'm on, uh, you know, of course X and Twitter and Reddit and YouTube and Facebook, you know, that's
4:28really the unk where the, you know, the unk people, uh, live.
4:31Yeah. I S I've stopped the Facebook stuff. I'm really not there.
4:35Yeah. Yeah. So with that being said, we do need some people that, uh, are familiar with the late round brand that
4:41know the late round brand and that want to potentially help out with what we're doing.
4:46So if you're creative, even better. And so this is not going to be like something we post on like, you know, monster.com if that's still around.
4:54We, you know, we just, we, we want you just to email me, uh, David at late round.com with, uh, any sort
5:01of experience, how you think you could help. And it's, it's very much unofficial.
5:05Unofficial. And, uh, that is something that's, that we would like to do this year.
5:10Just get our, our social media game up in all the different ways.
5:14Cause there's only so many of us. Yeah. Last but not least JJ, the data dump show.
5:19Yes. Yes. Do you want me to? Okay. I'll say it.
5:22I'll, I'll talk about it. So you guys know that I do the data dump every week on Twitter on blue sky.
5:29I mean, I don't know if people realize how much goes into doing that.
5:33Uh, thread every week. I love doing it cause it's research for me for 15 transactions and to kind of get going
5:40off on the right foot for my, for all my work that I do in season every week.
5:45But, uh, once the one o'clock games are over, I start that data dump research and I don't finish it until probably halftime of Sunday night football.
5:53Now, during that I'm watching some games. I'm not like full blown, you know, only doing the data dump stuff, but it's
6:00a, it's a big, big thing that we put together.
6:03And so right now it can be consumed via the thread on Twitter, on blue sky.
6:08It can be consumed via the new, the late round newsletter, which you guys should sign up for cause it's free.
6:14Um, but what we decided to do, and we had talked about this for a little bit.
6:19Um, and it, you know, we, we probably next year we'll be doing this week one, like right away.
6:25Um, Brandon Gadula, uh, became a father recently. And so congratulations to him.
6:29This is a few weeks. This has been a bit, a little bit of time at this point.
6:34And so we wanted to wait a little bit, give him enough time to kind of, you know, settle in this new life that he's living as dad.
6:43Um, and, uh, we are going to be doing a data dump show.
6:47Uh, and it is the first late round fantasy football show that I will not be a part of.
6:53Uh, it will be Mr. Kitchen hosting it. Uh, and Brandon Gadula every Monday at 11 AM Eastern.
6:58They will be on the YouTube channel. It's not going to be in the podcast feed, but it's on the YouTube channel.
7:05And they're going to not only go over some of the nuggets that I talked about in the data dump, but Brandon
7:11who does unbelievable data work will go through some of the usage trends and some of the things that he's seeing in
7:18the data that will help you guys get off on the right foot as well as we enter the following week.
7:24So we'll be live this Monday, new data dump show, uh, 11 AM Eastern on this YouTube channel, youtube.com slash at late round FF.
7:31There you go. And yeah, we're going to be doing, you know, a lot of people on Monday morning wondering about like,
7:38what has happened to my fantasy team or what has happened, you know, with all these, these injuries, these trends.
7:44So the first part of it is we're going to be taking a look at some of the injuries and taking a
7:51look at, all right, what, what happens when this person's not on the field?
7:55Like what are the potential opportunities there? Then I'm going to be picking out some of my favorite nuggets of yours, JJ.
8:02I'm going to just be curating your, uh, your data dump nuggets.
8:05Then last but not least, we're going to go over roll changes.
8:09And those are the, uh, the trends that you see.
8:12So, uh, it's going to be fun and, uh, looking forward to it.
8:16And with that being said, JJ, I'm also looking forward to today's news.
8:20Today's fantasy news. All right. We have got to get some reactions to last night's game, uh, as a Steelers fan of like laundry, JJ.
8:27Um, I'm sorry. The Browns lost, but at least Steelers lost the Browns one or Steelers lost.
8:32Yeah. To the Browns. I, I, at least though it was like not a bad fantasy game.
8:38Cause sometimes in the past, those Thursday night games have been bad for fantasy.
8:42Yeah, it was a good fantasy game. Um, yes, I'm a, a Steelers fan, but I will reiterate that that fandom has
8:48definitely, you know, shifted and changed, you know, through the years.
8:52Like I was still actively rooting for like Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion throughout that game at times.
8:57Um, but yeah, like I, I thought that the game showed a lot of promise for some players, you know, uh, Jalen
9:04Warren straight up bell cow without Rico Dowdle. And I feel a little vindicated because I've been talking about how I think
9:11Jalen Warren is just one of the best pure, just, just real life running backs in football.
9:16And I think we're seeing that like, he's been really effective as their bell cow over the last couple of weeks.
9:22He had a 97% snap share against the Browns, a 15% target share, 73% route share.
9:27I mean, those are literal RB one. That's that's RB one usage by far.
9:31Like he is that that's Jonathan Taylor plus usage right there.
9:34Uh, it's B John Robinson plus you, I mean, because the snap shares there.
9:39I mean, it's more like Jameer Gibbs in the way that they, they use Jalen Warren, uh, on Thursday.
9:44I think Rico Dowdle probably sounds like might be back next week, but this is why we invest in ambiguous backfields because
9:51when one of those guys goes down and I was kind of having this conversation on, on discord this week, and I
9:58think it's a, it's a, it's a important one to wrap your head around.
10:02So when it comes to like Brees Hall going down, yeah, we like Braylon Allen.
10:06We don't know exactly how that's going to be split up, but yeah, we like Braylon Allen and he's one, probably one of the better handcuffs.
10:14You know, for, for an example like this, we're like that backup can step up and still see a pretty good workload.
10:21And that's where zero RB and the fragility stuff, anti-fragility all comes into play for why zero RB can be effective for some teams.
10:28You know, as the season goes on, this is not, I'm not pro zero RB, but that is, you know, the logic behind it, which isn't wrong.
10:36Is that backup running backs are gonna be more predictable whenever an injury happens to the running back position versus when that
10:43injury happens to the wide receiver position. Then you look at like Devon H.
10:47He, he goes down. People are really excited to spend on Ollie Gordon and even Jalen Wright to a degree.
10:53I mean, my home league, Ollie Gordon went for the full budget.
10:57All $100. Yeah. And we all, you know, we're all poking fun at the person who did it and all that kind of stuff.
11:04And he's poking fun at himself and it's, it's a good time.
11:08But regardless, we're likely looking at a split backfield between two guys who are just inferior talents and it's in a bad offense, right?
11:15The reason why ambiguous backfields can be so impactful is because number one, if a player does emerge from one of those
11:22backfields, it's likely a pretty good situation because in the draft from an ADP perspective, ambiguous backfields are backfields where you have two guys.
11:29This is where part of this has been misconstrued a little bit.
11:32Ambiguous backfields are where you have middle round running backs that are being drafted together.
11:37It's not just the idea that, oh, we don't know who the running back is.
11:42That's part of the idea, but they also have to have decent ADPs attached to them.
11:46This is not a, oh, they're, they're all, you know, 13th round and later type picks.
11:51Yes, that's ambiguous, but it's not as attractive because if they're all going in the 13th round, that probably is telling you
11:58that the offense isn't projected to be all that good.
12:01Whereas you get a team like Pittsburgh where, yeah, the offense wasn't projected to be all that good, but the offense could
12:07bring some value for running backs given Aaron Rodgers tendencies and given, you know, what that, that whole team looks like from a personnel standpoint.
12:15And so you have Rico Dowdle and Jalen Warren in the middle rounds, and then one of them gets hurt.
12:21And then this is what you see, right? Like Braylon Allen is not going to see a 97% snapshot this weekend.
12:27Braylon Allen is not going to have more than likely a 15% target share, 73% route share.
12:33Now he could, but Jalen Warren projecting going into the game.
12:36We knew that he could be an RB one in fantasy football.
12:40You don't get that the same way from a typical handcuff type running back.
12:44That's stepping in for running back. Who's injured Alvin Camaro right now, right?
12:48Stepping in for Travis H and you know, you're going to get some Kendra Miller.
12:52You're going to get some CJ Donaldson, but with these ambiguous backfields, you have talented running backs that can step in and
12:59just carry the workload and be very good at doing that because they're talented running backs.
13:04That's why they're being drafted and the middle rounds to begin with.
13:07So Jalen Warren, I think has an opportunity right now to just be a, you know, instead of it being like 60,
13:1440 or 50, 50 or whatever, it could be a 70, 30 split moving forward.
13:18And if that's the case, Warren's going to be an RB two rest of season, even with Rico Dowdle in that backfield.
13:25So I think that the way that Warren has played, it's not shocking to me because I think he's a really good
13:32player, but it also could lead to more volume.
13:34And that's, what's really important about these backfields. Sometimes injuries do that.
13:38You know, sometimes injuries are the path, you know, chase Brown and Zach Moss.
13:42A few years ago, chase Brown became a league winner and a really good player in fantasy football because Zach Moss got hurt.
13:49But guess what? Brown was also just better than Zach Moss.
13:53You know, it was, it was not a situation where like Brown stepped in and he dominated.
13:58They didn't need any other running back to also step in and carry that workload because he was good enough to do
14:04that in one of those ambiguous backfields. So that's where Jalen Warren comes in.
14:09I just want to say that because I think it's important.
14:12I think it's a good game theory thing to really remember about these backfields now still on the Steelers DK Metcalf.
14:18He's kind of seeing more of those realized, you know, expected points that, that he's been underperforming with.
14:24Um, he was, he was on the verge of having another bad game and then, you know, the fourth quarter hit and
14:30he had some big plays down, down on that like final drive that they had.
14:35So I thought DK Metcalf played a decent enough game.
14:38Michael Pittman looks like dust right now. Uh, maybe it's injury related to a degree.
14:42Uh, Roman Wilson, I'm, I'm, you know, he's been, he, he had a decent expected point total last night.
14:48He was like 11.6 or something or 12 or something like that.
14:52So I think Roman Wilson is at least like, you know, in a, in a 12 to 14 team league, you can
14:58think about having him, uh, rostered at this point.
15:01I think there's still going to be some inconsistencies with Wilson.
15:04Um, but over on the, the Brown side, Quinshot, uh, Junkins as Kirk Herbstreet continued to say throughout that game, uh, Quinshot Judkins 38% route share.
15:12So that wasn't really that different from what his typical route share has been this season.
15:17The difference that he saw a target on 50% of his routes run, which is an absurdly high rate.
15:23It's not going to continue. Um, so if you look at his receipt, like I, I, I talked about Judkins and his
15:30like third down work from week two into week three.
15:33And he actually hasn't seen as consistent of third down work since then.
15:36But I did mention on the 10 trends episode that I would expect him to see a little bit more work through the air.
15:44This is not what I was expecting. This was too much work through the air.
15:48Like this is not going to maintain week in and week out more than likely.
15:53Um, this is the first game where he had more than 12 expected fantasy points.
15:57He was up at 22. So he had a really good outing.
16:01It was a, you know, he's getting goal line work.
16:04He scored that touchdown, you know, Jaleel McLaughlin got that wide open touchdown early on in the game.
16:09That could have been Judkins. You know, it could have been anyone or the blocking was great.
16:15And the play set up in the play call was really, really nice.
16:18Um, and so with Judkins, I'm not really like, like hardcore buying into what we saw.
16:23You know, I know that the booth was very into what they were seeing from Judkins.
16:28And like, they kept talking about, Oh, he looks better than he's looked all year.
16:33I would probably agree with that. But at the same time, you know, he still had a really low success rate.
16:39The dude, uh, had like a 23% success rate.
16:42I think it was, uh, last night. Yeah. 23.5% success rate.
16:45Uh, his best in a single game this year is 33%.
16:48That offensive line is still not very good. And so, and I don't know how sustainable this offense will be because we've
16:55seen a larger sample of Deshaun Watson, not looking like he did last night, which was good.
17:00Like Deshaun Watson looked like a good quarterback last night.
17:03And then the wide receivers, Denzel Boston, Casey Concepcion, they continue to impress me.
17:07Both of them. You know, I, I do think that the fantasy market is probably, you know, I'm not saying that I
17:14would sell Boston by any means, but it wouldn't shock me at all.
17:18If the market is a little bit more, just a little bit more bullish on Boston than I am moving forward.
17:24And then a little less bullish on Concepcion than I am for, which has kind of been the case since like week
17:31two, you know, the last couple of weeks. And I say that for the same reasons that I talked about on the
17:38mailbag episode this week, where it's very difficult for wide receivers with high route shares with also high average depth of targets, you know, above 15 yards.
17:46Denzel Boston right now is at a 17.4 a dot, uh, you know, 27% of his targets are going zero to seven yards through the air.
17:54Casey Concepcion is at 68% of those, of those kinds of looks.
17:57Those are the scammy PPR looks that we want wide receivers to still get and have part of their route tree because
18:04it's important for them to just get, give us some sort of floor.
18:08And then obviously hopefully they're still getting downfield and hopefully they're still doing things beyond that, but you still want that production.
18:14You want those intermediate routes and Boston's route tree is not bad.
18:18That's not what I'm trying to say. It's just that when they've been targeting him, it's been down the field and the dude's been converting, right?
18:26Like he's been really good. Like that's the thing.
18:29I don't want this to be misconstrued as like me saying that Denzel Boston isn't good.
18:33I think he's a, like he, he could end up being one of the best, if not the best wide receiver in this class.
18:41Hypothetically, I think that's in his range of outcomes, but what I'm saying is just from like a volatility standpoint of what
18:47we know is volatile, uh, in this game. I think what we'll see from Casey Concepcion is less so than Denzel Boston.
18:54And then obviously I don't think we just forget about our priors.
18:58Like I liked Casey Concepcion as a prospect more than I liked Boston.
19:02Boston was fine. I wasn't like jumping for joy about him, but I, I didn't think he was like a horrific prospect.
19:08I thought he was a volatile prospect. And if we were talking about this in our meeting this morning, uh, kitchen, cause
19:15this is what we do in our, in our meeting or business meetings.
19:19We, uh, we, we, half of it spent talking about, yeah, we talk a little ball.
19:24Um, but with Denzel Boston, one of his comps was Cortland Sutton.
19:27And I think that's the kind of, uh, that's definitely the archetype of player that we're talking about here.
19:33Like if you think about the prospects that have come out since I started doing like the prospect guide and stuff, you
19:40know, you get like the Drake London's, uh, the Ted row McMillans.
19:43Like they were all in the Cortland Sutton spectrum as well.
19:47Like that's the easy go-to archetype. Those guys have hit more.
19:50Maybe, maybe, maybe Denzel Boston has more of that London team Mac in him.
19:54The difference is that London and team Mac really work around the line of scrimmage and they will be used and deployed in the slot frequently.
20:02Whereas Denzel Boston, I don't know. Like, I think Boston is more like Mike Evans, right?
20:07Where, uh, from a deployment standpoint where he's going to play the vast majority of his routes and run the vast majority of his routes from the outside.
20:15And as I talked about on the mailbag episode, the only player that has consistently been like a wide receiver one to
20:22two in fantasy football over the last decade with that kind of role has been Mike Evans.
20:27And he's been, you know, one of the best players that we've ever seen, you know, play the position.
20:33Um, I know people are going to announce now roast me for that, but I'm just saying Mike Evans is a very,
20:39very good wide receiver, like a historically good wide receiver.
20:42So that's my point with Denzel Boston. It's not shade.
20:45Like he's very good. It's just the, the role, the usage.
20:49I tend to gravitate more towards in today's game, the Concepcion's of the world who are seeing higher volume per target or per route run.
20:56Like right now, uh, Casey Concepcion last night, they had an identical expected fantasy points, 12.8 to 12.7.
21:02Uh, but Concepcion right now is seeing a target on 25% of his routes run.
21:06Denzel Boston's at 18%. I mean, there's a, a very distinct difference.
21:10Like his, his target shares 24%. Denzel Boston's at 19%.
21:13You know, like there's a difference there. It's just that right now, Denzel Boston is converting on some of those down the field looks.
21:20And if those don't convert in the same way, you know, it's not going to be as powerful of a fantasy performance.
21:27And that's, you know, it's, it's still a little difficult for me to assume that it's going to continue to this rate when Deshaun Watson's their quarterback.
21:35You know, Watson looked good for the majority of last night's game, but he was worse in the second half.
21:41You know, there, there were, there was volatile. That was right.
21:44That's the thing. Like, I think that we should be okay with, instead of speaking in yes or no, it's volatile or not volatile.
21:52Right. And for Concepcion, I just don't think it's nearly as volatile of a profile and situation with Boston.
21:57It is like, there's just a wider range of outcomes every single week.
22:01And, and so I guess my, my response would be like, choose your own adventure, whatever you want to do.
22:07You know, maybe there is a higher ceiling for Boston, but I think Concepcion, like we often, you know, don't understand projecting
22:14ceiling well enough to, and we often just like put guys like Wandel Robinson.
22:18I mean, maybe not this year, no offense, but into these buckets of like having no ceiling, but they can, if the volume's there, if they're good enough.
22:27And I think Casey Concepcion is good enough to see that volume.
22:30Wandel did decent last week. I mean, just PPR scam merchant.
22:34Let's let's talk about this IR list and then we'll go on the rest of the, the injured notes, the players that are questionable.
22:41And then some other question marks that have popped up this week, starting with running backs.
22:46Let's group these guys together. Devon H and out for the season.
22:49You already mentioned this a little bit. Travis H and the agents is going to be also on IR.
22:55So, um, I don't know if you want to talk any more about dolphins.
22:59Cause you already have quite a bit. Maybe you can expand a little bit more on Travis though.
23:05Yeah. So HM being out like they, the, the matchup this week is not fantastic against Atlanta, the way they've been performing so far this year.
23:12And then next week they get the Vikings. So like, I don't, I wouldn't like, I think it's fine to stash Kendra Miller.
23:19I just don't think that you're going to play him this week.
23:23Right. Because, because we don't know how the backfield is going to be split.
23:27And then even if he gets a decent workload, chances are, he's still gonna be splitting with the other running backs in that backfield.
23:35And then you're not going to feel very confident starting him against Minnesota.
23:38Right. So just know that if you're adding a Kendra Miller, you're going to more than likely just be stashing for a couple of weeks.
23:46And then, uh, Alvin Kamara, I think is going to be sort of like the PPR scammer, you know, type player in the backfield run the most routes.
23:54That's what we've seen. He doubled up their routes last week.
23:58Um, and, and it is not a terrible, terrible matchup from a volume perspective through the air for new Orleans.
24:04So I don't mind Alvin Kamara as much in like a PPR format.
24:08Kendra Miller still more, more volatile than, than Kamara is the, the Miami backfield.
24:12I'm just off. I mean, you can listen to me and Dave Richard on, on perspectives this week, talk about this, but
24:19I just have a really hard time believing that a team, I mean, this week they have an implied total of 14 points.
24:26The Dolphins do like, what are we really expecting from a split backfield in a, in a bad matchup?
24:31Uh, you know, on a team that is not going to score many points, you know, projected wise.
24:37So I think that you can stash Ollie Gordon and Jalen Wright.
24:40It's just, like I said, on 15 transactions at the beginning of the week, I was going to be low on Ollie Gordon.
24:47Like my bids for Ollie Gordon and Jalen Wright off the waiver wire this week were even, you know, like I wasn't
24:54going harder for Ollie Gordon than I was Jalen Wright.
24:57And then sort of as the C, as the week went on, like my Wednesday waivers, I actually, some leagues I bid
25:04more on Jalen Wright because I just wanted to get a little bit more exposure, uh, with, with him because, you know, he's going to be cheaper.
25:12And I was like, Oh, I actually have a chance to get him, uh, versus Ollie Gordon.
25:17So I'm just not very high on that situation in general.
25:20I think they're going to both be like RB fours and that, that to me is not going to be league winning enough to, to be that excited.
25:29I think the issue, cause it also happened in a few leagues where that I'm in, where the eight chance of Devon,
25:35a chance owner already is Owen three, um, you know, or one in two.
25:40And they just lost a key part of their team.
25:43And so the guy in my home league also bid 70% for, for HN, which is just like, for, for Gordon, uh, or for Gordon.
25:50Yeah. Yeah. Probably Gordon. So just like, it's a lot, it's a lot of money, but they're also desperate, you know?
25:56So I get it. Look, I, I understand. It's very easy for an analyst to sit on here and be like the
26:03Miami backfield is going to suck, but there's, there's some desperate teams out there.
26:07I understand. Like I have zero, well, we, we drafted a zero RB team in the league that we, me, you and good.
26:14Dula drafted together. Yeah. We're crushing it. Yeah. We are crushing it.
26:18You know, we're, it's a points league and we're like 80 points ahead of everybody else right now.
26:23Yeah. All right. Um, Jayden Reed, just a brutal way to end the season for him.
26:28I mean, did we, it might be career ending.
26:31Yeah. It's a, he said 11 out, I think on his social media posts.
26:35So he's, he's done for the season. And then Jalen McMillan is just an IR not done for the season, but another guy who had an neck injury.
26:44Um, going into this year. So McMillan just can't catch a break.
26:47Um, and then Jen Reed, obviously it's really sad.
26:50I, I, Jaden Reed will always go down as like one of my, one of my dudes, you know, like the, the
26:57pro like I remember when he came out, the prospect model was into him and like the, the, you know, this is
27:03very early on in the late round discord era.
27:06And folks were like, he was a late round guy.
27:09And you know, you, you grow to like these players and just like have, you know, an affinity for them, whether it's
27:16the story, you know, Pacheco is the same way Isaiah Pacheco, where it's like, you just want to see him do well
27:22because he helped you out at one point, you know, in your career.
27:26And, and you want to just see that continue.
27:29And for all intents and purposes, he seems like a good dude.
27:32It's just sad when anything happens like that to a player.
27:36Um, and so I, you know, from a fantasy perspective, it certainly opens things up to that offense in green Bay, just being very funneled, right?
27:44It's, it's the three guys that were really worried about seeing looks in that offense, Matthew golden, Christian Watson and Tucker craft.
27:50So, I mean, it's good for them from a fantasy perspective.
27:54It's bad for the team. It's bad for football.
27:56You want these guys to stay healthy, uh, Peter said, um, buddy, Kendra will have to be my RB one in week
28:03seven with Hampton and two none by cause he also lost agent.
28:07I feel you. I feel you. You know, my thing though, is that like it's week four, you definitely should think ahead,
28:13but just understand and remember that like chaos happens in a week, you know, like next week there's gonna, there's going to be a running back out there.
28:22And I always, I think about this all the time.
28:25It's kind of sickening, but I think to myself, like it's crazy that there's going to be a running back on waivers
28:31right now that next week is going to be, or some player that's going to be so sought after.
28:37And he just sitting there right now, he could be on our team for free.
28:42If we only knew, you know who that player was going to be, but they're for free right now.
28:47And then there'll be, you know, half your budget next week.
28:51Yeah. That's why, uh, last week I picked up, I had to choose between Ollie Gordon and Kendra Miller on a Sunday morning.
28:58Cause I do the same, I do the same thing and they both.
29:02But, um, yesterday I picked up a Seth McGowan and the late round chopped league that we're in and had a couple
29:08of guys like, what do you know? And it's just like, I don't know anything.
29:13I have a lot. I have so much like Seth McGowan, Samaj AP Ryan, like these guys that it's part of it's
29:19like hedging, you know, the players that you have on other rosters and stuff.
29:24But then part of it is just like, that's just what's available in this league.
29:28And I can, you know, if an injury happens, he'll be, you know, think about when you're, when you're doing that, think
29:35about how much that player would go for if that injury happens.
29:38If Jonathan Taylor gets hurt, Seth McGowan is going to be like, if Jonathan Taylor's out for the year, knock on wood,
29:45Seth McGowan is going to be like an 80% fab guy.
29:48I really hope he does not get hurt this week.
29:51Yeah, I know. We're going to replay that clip.
29:54I know it'd be really bad. All right. Um, we did dodge a little bit of a bullet.
30:00Brees Hall owners did. He's not out for extended period of time.
30:03He is going to be out this week along with Mason Taylor.
30:07Yeah. And Adnan Mitchell and 80 Mitchell. Also out.
30:10So those three are out and Sadiq was questionable, but I think he is going to play this week.
30:15Yeah, man. Uh, over 30% targets per outrun rate last week, 22% target share, 57% route share.
30:20But Sadiq was kind of in and out of that game because he's got that dog in him and he was just
30:27throwing his body around show cover boy. Yeah. Yeah.
30:30Finally, finally something went right on this show. It's kind of bizarre.
30:33Like I, this season's been so weird from a matchup.
30:36I've been bad at like sleepers and this show hasn't been that great, but then transactions has been great.
30:42And the, you know, the draft stuff has been great.
30:45So it's, it's been interesting. It's been interesting. Um, but yeah, Sadiq is a big late round guy for sure.
30:51We've been talking about him for even before the season started.
30:55So, um, I'm excited for Sadiq this week. I think he's, uh, I think I'll, I think I have him ranked as
31:01like a tight end one right now, like a low end one going into, into this game, given all the injuries.
31:08Okay. The one that kind of hits hard yesterday, Devonta Smith.
31:11Uh, this is, this was brutal and Goddard Dallas Goddard also out for this Eagles offense.
31:16Can I tell you a secret? Well, so I have, I have a lot of fantasy teams.
31:21I only have two teams with Quinchot Judkins. Okay.
31:24Uh, one of them I had to play him cause I had, it's a, you know, I went wide receiver, tight end heavy to start.
31:31I drafted Brock Bowers. And so I have Judkins on that team.
31:35Okay. The other team I was going to bench him cause I have pretty good running backs.
31:40I was going to bench him, but then Devonta Smith happened.
31:43Yeah. And so it's a full PPR league. And so I decided, I was like, you know what?
31:49I'm just going to play Quinchot Judkins. So that league, the Devonta, that was actually a blessing that Devonta Smith had a hammy.
31:56So, uh, you know, that's, that's just the way that fantasy football works sometimes.
32:00Yeah, no, we're happy. All us, uh, Devonta Smith owners are happy for you, JJ.
32:04I have a lot of Devonta Smith. I know.
32:07Yeah. If you, if you got the draft card, if you listened to us in this off season, I love Devonta this year.
32:14Yeah. Yeah. Um, so it's bad. Uh, Goddard, I don't know what his status is right now, but it sounds like more doubtful than probable.
32:21Yeah. They don't expect him to be to play.
32:24Yeah. So, uh, this could be, you know, I know that I mentioned the mailbag episode that like Jordan Tyson was the better stash compared to Makai lemon.
32:33If you were looking at like week 10 and beyond, but again, if you need that immediate production, this could be the Makai lemon breakout.
32:40You know, we could see, I don't think Makai lemon has looked bad.
32:44You know, I know that the production has not been there.
32:47I think part of it is what we were afraid of when he was drafted there, that Jalen hurts doesn't frequently throw to the middle of the field.
32:56Cause that's barred out. Like he's Jalen hurts is like 28th in the league right now and middle of the field targets,
33:03you know, it's, it's in terms of his rate of throwing it to the middle of the field.
33:08And that's where Makai lemon can really operate and dominate.
33:11So that's definitely fearful. Don Tavian wicks gets a bump up as well.
33:15But yeah, I mean, if Makai lemons out there, you got to stash him.
33:19I mean, that's the, that is the kind of player that you want on your bench in these situations, right?
33:25Like, are you going to be confident starting him?
33:28I think the Eagles might get smashed. Like I think it might be a really, really tough spot for them to score
33:35a lot of points, but if the usage is there and we see a little bit from lemon, which I think is
33:41very possible, you're going to want him on your bench because you might be able to, you know, if this lingers for
33:48Devante Smith, even if it doesn't, you know, like this could be an opportunity for this player to break out.
33:54It's very similar to how we felt about like Kenyon Sadiq, right?
33:58Where it's like things are aligning. You got to probably at least stash him.
34:02You know, it might not be, you might not start them, but at least stash him because if that hits, he's going
34:08to by far be the highest waiver claim the next week.
34:12I know Makai lemon has a higher percent rostered number and such, but if he's out there, uh, which he probably is
34:18in like 40 to 50% of leagues or something like that, uh, you definitely gotta, you definitely gotta, to look into it.
34:25Hey, Eagles three and a half point dogs to the Rams.
34:28Just look that up. All right. Uh, Baker's doozy Baker exits the, at the very end of last week's game.
34:34He already hasn't looked great. Um, but no Baker Jalen Daniels comes in and will be the starter for this week.
34:41And I'm guessing next week he's Baker's not on IR, but this, uh, this bucks offense is on life support.
34:47Yeah. Yeah. Look, no one knows for sure what this is going to look like, but I think we can project that
34:53it's probably not going to look good. You know, this is not like a prolific collegiate quarterback, you know, wasn't highly sought after or anything like that.
35:02Um, and the bucks have been bad even before the injury happened.
35:05I, I, I do think that the blame needs to be placed mostly on Baker though, for how the bucks have performed.
35:12Like he's just not been a good quarterback since the beginning of last year, you know?
35:17Uh, and so that, that's one thing that's making me hopeful that it's not a big drop from a, you know, and
35:23turns into like a total dumpster fire right now.
35:26It's just like a minor dumpster fire. It's like, you can put it out with a pitcher of water or something like that.
35:33I'm hoping that you don't need the fire extinguisher, you know, to, to get this thing out because, um, Baker has performed
35:40pretty, pretty poorly, but yeah, I mean, like it's still a good spot for the Packers defense.
35:45Um, I, I would imagine that they're not, I think their implied total this week is only 18 points.
35:50Lowe's knows Sundays are for football. So tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and earn your Sunday with great deals on
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36:00Then once your to-do list is done, get ready to kick back, relax, and enjoy the game.
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36:11Got your game day plans locked in? Applebee's can help.
36:14For a limited time, the new craveable OM Cheez-O-D-A burger is available on the two for 25 menu.
36:19This isn't your average game day burger. The OM Cheez-O-D-A burger features a juicy burger wrapped inside a cheesy quesadilla and served
36:26on a skillet of queso with crispy tortilla chips.
36:29It's loaded with cheese craveable flavor and a cheese pull that's tough to resist.
36:33The Applebee's two for 25 menu is made for sharing and offers abundant value, craveable portions, and great variety.
36:39Choose one full-size appetizer and two full-size entrees for only $25.
36:42Build your winning lineup with guest favorite appetizers like boneless wings or mozzarella sticks.
36:46Then choose from entrees including the new California Grilled Chicken Salad, the new OM Cheeseburger, Fiesta Lime Chicken, and the new OM Cheez-O-D-A burger.
36:54Don't wait until the final whistle. The new OM Cheez-O-D-A burger is only available for a limited time.
36:59Hurry in for one full-size appetizer and two full-size entrees for only $25.
37:03Just be warned, resisting the pull of the OM Cheez-O-D-A burger might be the toughest play of the day.
37:09Tax, gratuity, beverage, and dessert not included. All right, T's and P's to T-Ferg as far as it looks like he's not going to play this week.
37:17Also, um... Nakua's back. Yeah, Nakua is back, so we had a good run with Terrence Ferguson.
37:22Dude, Terrence Ferguson would have smashed last week. I know.
37:25Smashed. Tyler Higby had a crazy expected viewpoint. Yeah, if Higby smashed, that was going to be Terrence Ferguson.
37:31Oh my gosh, it's so frustrating. It's so frustrating.
37:33But you know what? We get a Sadiq W.
37:36Sometimes we get the injury. That's right. With Puka back, I don't think you were going to be trusting the tight ends anyway.
37:43Mike Evans has fractured ribs. Thank you, George Kittle, for letting us know that.
37:47Whereas everybody else was being vague, I appreciate Kittle's candor.
37:50Nico's questionable. Nico Collins. Coker. And Coker is questionable.
37:53Xavier Leguette is going to be out. Justin Jefferson.
37:56Justin Jefferson just saw in our News and Rumors channel in the Discord that he was not at practice today.
38:02So we'll figure out that. But those are the big wide receivers that are currently questionable this week.
38:07Yeah, Jefferson, I don't know why they would force it against Miami, to be honest with you.
38:12So I've kind of expected him to not play all week and then just come back next.
38:18Coker. I've in my rankings have leaned towards him being in now.
38:21But I think that's very much 50-50. So you've got to have a plan, given the fact they play Sunday night.
38:28Nico seems like he's going to go this week.
38:30So that's good. Okay. Jadarian Price downgraded. And Charbonnet is limited.
38:34I mean, what's going on with the Seattle backfield?
38:36Yeah, look, Charbonnet can't play yet, to be fair.
38:39Right? He can't hop in. Yeah, because he's got to miss four weeks.
38:43Right. So the other thing, too, Jeff Mueller was tweeting about this.
38:47Like, Zach Charbonnet's quad, one of his quad, is so small right now.
38:50Like, he's not ready to go. There's very little chance that we're going to see.
38:55Like, I don't think we're going to see him in week five either.
38:59Jadarian Price, though, you know, he's had like... I mean, it's been a pretty brutal start to the season for Jadarian Price.
39:06I talked a lot about him on the 10 Trends episode where he's been the kind of bursty, bigger play kind of player.
39:13But he's not good if hit behind the line.
39:15And that's a problem for a team like Seattle that clearly favors that.
39:19I mean, they were splitting a backfield with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet last year in favor of the guy who is
39:26hypothetically good at just kind of getting the tough yards.
39:29And I think that's an issue for Jadarian Price overall.
39:32You know, it was a... Look, Price had an unbelievably volatile profile coming out of college.
39:37We don't know, you know, at least analytically. Like, I couldn't sit there and say definitively he was going to be good
39:43just because he was a 30-second overall pick because he didn't carry a workload.
39:48And I don't want to use a teammate. You know, like, the problem with using the teammate excuse for Jadarian Price is
39:54that that still doesn't tell you that you know what the player is like, right?
39:59Like, you or I, Kitchen, could back up Jeremiah Love on Notre Dame.
40:03And we still would... That wouldn't tell us that we're good simply because we're backing that player up, right?
40:08I'd be like Rudy out there. Yeah. Yeah. But, like, look at, like, you know, you have...
40:14You had Isaiah Pacheco before he got hurt backing up Jameer Gibbs, right?
40:17It doesn't automatically mean that Pacheco's a good player simply because he's backing up an excellent player, you know?
40:23Yeah. So there was just... We didn't know with Jadarian Price.
40:26There was a lot of vagueness to his receiving profile, to his pass blocking.
40:31I do think that some of that is coming to fruition for Seattle.
40:35And it's a team that we've already seen split a backfield with clear...
40:39Kenneth Walker has been the best running back in football this year.
40:42And they were splitting a backfield with him last year, you know?
40:46And they were... They won the Super Bowl. Like, what they did worked.
40:50So I don't know why they would really change things up with Price.
40:54So it's really bad news for Price that Charbonnet is probably going to be back over the next month, maybe.
41:00You know, because I think Sharbs will end up seeing all of the valuable touches, or most of the valuable touches in fantasy.
41:07The goal line work and the pass catching stuff.
41:09And that's a very, very big problem for Jadarian Price.
41:12All right. We just mentioned Puka expected to play this week.
41:16Let's get on to the Commanders. Friend of the show, Austin Eckler, signs with Commanders.
41:20Kind of knew, like, something might be up with Rashad White.
41:24Sure enough, he's going to be out this week.
41:26Chig Akonkwo is going to play. Marcus Mariota is starting.
41:29This, though, was new. Yeah, I added this to the sheet.
41:33I was about to, and then I saw you added in parentheses.
41:36Yeah. Yeah, Scary Terry is a little bit scary.
41:39Popping up on the injury report on a Friday.
41:42The problem with McLaurin being out versus Stefan Diggs being out is that Antonio Williams plays more of the Stefan Diggs role in that offense.
41:49So this could be your boys, Traylon Burks. This could be a little bit of a Traylon Burks sighting if Terry McLaurin doesn't play in that game.
41:57Because I think Burks will then just play more on the outside.
42:01And then we'll probably get a little bit more Antonio Williams.
42:04We'll get a little bit more Stefan Diggs. I think Diggs, if Terry McLaurin's out, Diggs becomes a really interesting play.
42:11He could just be hyper-targeted in that game. It's a good matchup, especially if they move him inside out, which they probably would.
42:18So, yeah, I mean, this is definitely something to monitor.
42:21And it sucks that he might not. I mean, late week hammies.
42:24Yeah. It's not a good sign. Not going or popping up on a Friday.
42:28As a Titans fan, though, yes, watching that game last week and then watching Marcus Mariota throw a touchdown to Traylon Burks,
42:35it was just like, ah, this is brutal. All right.
42:38JJ is leaving Minnesota. He has been traded to the Giants.
42:41And your thought on nine going to the Giants, JJ?
42:44Well, 18 now, right? Yeah. Yeah, because Isaiah likely.
42:47Yeah, look, I thought Jameis Winston would play a little bit better than he did last week.
42:52And I was wrong. And he played horribly. And I think he's probably washed.
42:57And I think we're going to see JJ McCarthy at some point this season.
43:01And that's probably really bad for Malik neighbors. That's my overall take.
43:04All right. We got to move on. So we can't talk too much about Marv right now.
43:10But there are rumors about him being traded. And then there is a Dan Graziano take, his Intel take, about there being
43:16possibly more Woody Marks than upcoming than Montgomery. Wouldn't surprise me because he's had better.
43:21I talked about this on the Sleeper Show, actually.
43:23He's had way better numbers than David Montgomery this year.
43:26Yeah. All right. Let's get on to today's data.
43:29Today's data. All right, JJ, what are we looking at here?
43:33This is a fun little chart. You might have to zoom in at times.
43:37We can go quadrant by quadrant kitchen if you want to go like top left first and then to the top right.
43:43So what we're looking at is 10 plus yard run rate on the X axis and then rush success rate on the Y axis.
43:51This is pre Thursday night football. So Quinchot Judkins and Jalen Warren.
43:54This is based on weeks one through three. But basically everyone on the left, they are at least getting you decent success
44:01rates, but they haven't been very explosive, which it's funny that Jeremiah Love is very clearly on that list.
44:07He just hasn't had many 10 plus yard run rates to start the year.
44:11Chris Rodriguez. That's like that's like his home, you know, like just a guy who can get you some yards and, you know, move forward.
44:18But he's not going to give you that much explosion.
44:21So, you know, I said this on the on the show this week.
44:25He's the only running back with 20 or more carries without a 10 plus yard run this season.
44:31Marshawn Lloyd's in there. Surprisingly, Ramondre Stevenson's in there.
44:34Javante Williams, Brian Robinson, a lot of these like early, you know, Maureen Hampton, a lot of these guys who are just
44:40like early down grinders who don't necessarily give you that much explosion most of the time.
44:45So then you look at the bottom left. These are the scary guys.
44:49These are guys who have not played very well this year in terms of success.
44:53So success rate is the percentage of rush attempts that result in positive EPA plays, expected points added plays.
44:59So these are the players that have been not explosive and also, you know, not successful.
45:04And obviously offensive line is going to play a role here in team situations by Devon A.
45:09chance on there. But, you know, Cam Scadaboo's on here.
45:12Ashton Gentry, who I talked about on the 10 trends episode, who's not been very efficient to start the season.
45:18And J.K. Dobbins, Ollie Gordon, Quinshawn Judkins, David Montgomery, Tyler Algier, Kaylon Black, Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt, Emmanuel Wilson.
45:24You know, guys that you would probably mostly expect to be in this quadrant.
45:28They're the ones that are in this quadrant. And then you go to the bottom right, which are the players who have
45:35low success rates, but high, like relatively high explosive run rates.
45:38That's where you get. And there's not many that are like really low in success rate, which is good, you know, because
45:44they're that means that there's probably a little bit of volatility.
45:48Like they could eventually just be like in that the quadrant that we want them to be in.
45:53But Brees Hall, Jalen Warren, Jadarian Price, Jonathan Taylor, or no, sorry, Chase Brown, Kyle Monungai, Chuba Hubbard, like those types of
46:00players that have been fine to start the year.
46:03But they're not the elite guys, which is the top right quadrant.
46:06This is where you get the guys who are just crushing right now, where they're giving you high explosives.
46:12They're giving you high success rates. You get James Cook.
46:15This is all on the ground for the record.
46:18You know, you kind of get both Rams guys, B.
46:21Johns in there, CMC, Kenneth Walker, Bashaw Tootin. You look at the group up top.
46:25Yeah, they're the three best running backs in football, arguably, or some of the three.
46:30Right. Yeah. And CMC, Kenneth Walker and Jameer. And Kenneth Walker.
46:33And then right there is Bashaw Tootin. He's just sitting right there.
46:37Also, shout out Tony Pollard, who's had actually a pretty good year to start the season.
46:42Better year than I expected from Tony Pollard. So Graziano, talk about him.
46:45Like, he wants more. They ask him about like a fantasy football take.
46:49He's like, I want more Tony Pollard. I was like, okay, well, that's caught me off guard.
46:55Because no one's really talking about any Titans that they want more of right now.
46:59Hey, I do. Cardinal Tate, don't lose faith. I'm not.
47:02Great peripherals. Good player. I'm not. I'm still. I'm still.
47:05He was. He was two boneheaded plays away from having two touchdowns.
47:09Cardinal Tate is a good buy right now. I would.
47:12I would be buying. Lowe's knows Sundays are for football.
47:15So tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and earn your Sunday with great deals on LG and Bosch appliances, select Ego, DeWalt, Filtree products, and more.
47:23Then once your to-do list is done, get ready to kick back, relax, and enjoy the game.
47:28Shop in-store or online now and earn your Sunday with help from Lowe's, official partner of the NFL.
47:34Got your game day plans locked in? Applebee's can help.
47:37For a limited time, the new craveable OM Cheesadilla burger is available on the 2 for 25 menu.
47:42This isn't your average game day burger. The OM Cheesadilla burger features a juicy burger wrapped inside a cheesy quesadilla and served
47:49on a skillet of queso with crispy tortilla chips.
47:51It's loaded with cheese-craveable flavor and a cheese pull that's tough to resist.
47:55The Applebee's 2 for 25 menu is made for sharing and offers abundant value, craveable portions, and great variety.
48:01Choose one full-size appetizer and two full-size entrees for only $25.
48:04Build your winning lineup with guest favorite appetizers like boneless wings or mozzarella sticks.
48:09Then choose from entrees including the new California Grilled Chicken Salad, the new OM Cheesburger, Fiesta Lime Chicken, and the new OM Cheesadilla burger.
48:16Don't wait until the final whistle. The new OM Cheesadilla burger is only available for a limited time.
48:21Hurry in for one full-size appetizer and two full-size entrees for only $25.
48:25Just be warned, resisting the pull of the OM Cheesadilla burger might be the toughest play of the day.
48:31Tax, gratuity, beverage, and dessert not included. Let's move on to the main event.
48:35The late round main event! Players that I like more than consensus this week.
48:39Let's do it. Alright, first one. Jacoby Brissett. I have him four spots ahead of consensus.
48:44This was pulled last night, so maybe things changed.
48:47But I actually could have gotten a lot of different directions at quarterback this week.
48:51I think there's a lot of good options. I like Jacoby Brissett, though.
48:55The Giants have a bottom two pressure rate this season.
48:58They're top ten for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed.
49:01They're sixth in fantasy points per drop back allowed.
49:04Arizona's implied total is 23.5 points. I like the matchups for the wide receivers in this game.
49:09Talk about that in a second. So Jacoby Brissett, I wouldn't be shocked if Jacoby Brissett ends up as a QB.
49:15I'm not going to rank him that way. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up as a QB one this week.
49:22Okay. Next. Bashal Tootin. Shocker. He's already, like I said this on the 10 trends episode, he's arguably been the best rusher in football to start the year.
49:30The problem is that he's been so consistent with like a 48 to 50% snap share, a 50 to 55% rush share in that offense.
49:38And he's only seen five targets. He's not getting looks through the air, which is definitely a problem.
49:43But if you look at the Bengals, they're a top half team by adjusted points allowed to running backs.
49:49They're allowing the fourth most yards before contact. And Tootin has thrived after contact.
49:53So they give the Bengals are giving more to offensive lines and to these running backs on these plays.
49:59And then obviously Tootin is good after contact. So he could do a lot on each rush in this game.
50:05And then the other thing, too, is like Jacksonville, you kind of want like more back and forth than what we've seen
50:12the majority of the games this year from them or at least two to three games from them.
50:17And so I what I'm kind of excited to see is if there is a good game environment here, which is what
50:24we're projecting, there could be more back and forth.
50:27And maybe they do get more manufactured looks through the air to Tootin.
50:30So I'm pretty high on Tootin. You know, the problem is the receiving work's not there to call him like an RB1 in fantasy.
50:38You know, the receiving work needs to be better.
50:40But I do think that things are trending absolutely in the right direction because hashtag all roads lead to Bayshall Tootin.
50:47Exactly. OK, this this next guy talk about receiving work and wide receiver Khalif Raymond.
50:51I'm 13 spots higher than consensus with Raymond this week.
50:54You know, I think that a lot of the fantasy community is just kind of like this can't continue.
51:00And it might not. It really might not. But you can't keep getting away from this or getting away with this.
51:06Yeah, exactly. I think this sets up as a very similar game plan is what the Bears did last week with Luther
51:13Burden and Khalif Raymond getting those sort of shorter looks, you know, seven yard, a dot type looks.
51:18Roma Dunze has been sort of a sacrificial X to start the season for them.
51:23But if you look at what the Jets have done this year, they've been really good against 20 plus air yard throws.
51:30Second best in the NFL in completion rate allowed on those throws.
51:33But they're allowing a top five or sorry. I should say bottom five averaged up the target this season, which means we're
51:40probably going to see the now I have to change this to bottom before I like lose my mind that I wrote top.
51:47But they've allowed a bottom five a dot, which means we could see more looks to the running backs, more looks to Khalif Raymond to Luther Burden.
51:55Raymond has a lower a dot. He's a middle of the field player.
51:59He's a 23 percent target share on the season.
52:02I think that he's not a terrible play this week.
52:05I could I could rank him down to like 41 or 42, but it would still be higher than consensus.
52:11So I'm going to call him out. OK, and then next we just talked about Justin Jefferson not being at practice today.
52:17T.J. Hawkinson. Yeah, I'm a few spots higher on Hawk this week.
52:21Nineteen percent target share in the season. Seventy point five percent route share.
52:25And it's pretty strong. Jefferson's not one hundred percent.
52:28Miami's pass rush pass rush. Their defense is terrible, but their pass rush is really bad.
52:32So the Vikings might not need T.J. Hawkinson to be blocking.
52:36They could use him as an extra receiver with with Justin Jefferson banged up.
52:40Miami's fifth in adjusted points allowed the tight ends this year.
52:43Their third in PPR PPR points per target allowed a tight ends and their first in yards per outrun allowed the tight ends.
52:50So I think Hawkinson, you know, do I think he's going to finish the top five tight end?
52:56No, but I am higher than consensus. OK, now let's take a look at bold predictions that you have for week three.
53:02And let's start with this one. When I looked at this last night, I was just shocked.
53:08You've got a Marvin Harrison Jr. Bold prediction. Yeah, I feel like if you say Marvin Harrison Jr.
53:13is going to going to score six fantasy points, it's a bold prediction at this point.
53:18I just love the matchup against the Giants. They see a lot of work get funneled to perimeter wide receivers.
53:24You know, we were just talking about Carnell Tate last week in the game that he could have potentially had.
53:30He still had a decent game, but they push a lot of their looks to the outside.
53:35They've been giving up a lot of fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers.
53:39And then the other thing, too, is that with Marvin Harrison Jr., he's been seeing looks only down the field.
53:45Like the difference between him and Michael Wilson is that, well, I mean, Michael Wilson's good.
53:50But the difference is that Michael Wilson sees a lot of the cheaper looks that we were talking about earlier in the
53:56show with Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion. And Michael Wilson is going to see some of the I mean, Michael Wilson could smash this week.
54:04Don't get me wrong. Like, this is not an anti Michael Wilson take.
54:08It's just that the Giants haven't been able to pressure the quarterback very well this year.
54:13And so if that's the case, percent might have a little bit more time to let Marvin Harrison Jr.
54:18Get down the field more. And oh, by the way, there's good perimeter matchups for them.
54:23So I do think it comes together to say, like, I could see Marvin Harrison Jr.
54:28Being a top 36 wide receiver. I think that's in his range of outcomes this week.
54:33All right. The next one. Honestly, it's bold. I wish it wasn't, though.
54:37Daniel Jones outscores Brock Purdy. Yeah. Brock has a tough matchup against Denver.
54:41I look, I love Brock. I think he's QB three rest of season, you know, behind Lamar and Josh Allen.
54:47Fortunately, you know, we, you know, late rounders drafted a lot of Brock, you know, had him pretty high in the rankings preseason.
54:54So this is not an anti Brock Purdy take.
54:57I'm far from one of the he's a system core.
55:00I mean, he's a system quarterback to some degree, but he's a good quarterback.
55:04But Mike Evans is banged up, you know, like there's stuff going on there.
55:08The Denver defense, despite what happened week one, it's a really good defense.
55:12It's not easy for quarterbacks. And then Daniel Jones gets Washington, who's basically been the best matchup for quarterbacks like dating back to last year.
55:19I mean, there it's a great, great matchup for Indianapolis in general through the air.
55:24So I'm going to go Daniel Jones over Brock Purdy as a bold prediction.
55:28Okay. Okay. Next, let's get to the look ahead waiver wire.
55:32And again, these are guys that are available that you might want to get for next week because next week we start having buys enter the chat.
55:40And so you might want to look ahead a week or so.
55:43So with that being said, let's get to the quarterbacks.
55:46Yeah. I'm going to actually add, I forgot to add Deshaun Watson because they get the jets next week.
55:52So he obviously based on what, how he performed this week, I think he should be on your radar.
55:58Aaron Rogers gets the Colts. It's a great matchup for him.
56:01Jacoby Brissett. If he's still out there, you could use them this week potentially.
56:05And then next week they get Detroit. So he's a, a two weaker, uh, James Winston.
56:10Maybe something happens against Arizona. You know, they get Washington next week.
56:14Great matchup. We'll see. And then I only put Jalen Daniels on here because we don't know, like, what if, what if he runs the ball a lot?
56:22Or what if he, what if he's just surprises us and they get Dallas next week?
56:27Although Dallas did get Joey Porter jr. Uh, who man, what a sad situation, especially for me personally.
56:33Yeah. As a Yinzer and Joey Porter jr. Went to the high school that I went to.
56:38Uh, so there's like an extra, you know, little, little fun thing there for me with, with Joey Porter jr.
56:44And then they just, they just trade them. I'm sorry about that.
56:47But Jalen Daniels did. He's already surprised us. No one expected him to be the backup.
56:52So obviously the buffs have seen something. The thing, if nothing else in fantasy football guys lean into what people aren't leaning into.
56:59Yeah. This is, especially when there's a backbone to it, there's not much of a backbone with Jalen Daniels, but this goes
57:06back to like the Kenyon Sadiq stuff, right? The market hated them.
57:09The market didn't want anything to do with Sadiq, but it's like, dude, what, what are we doing here?
57:15You know, it might not pan out who knows, but like, talk about first round pick with elite athleticism and pretty good production pro.
57:22Like what are we doing? And I'm not saying that with Jalen Daniels, but don't assume that the market is going to
57:29be right about how they're feeling about this Tampa Bay offense.
57:32We have no idea. The market hated him, but we loved him here at late round.
57:37That's right. All right. Running backs starting with Woody Marks.
57:40Yeah. I think Woody Marks could see more work than what we, I mean, last week, the snapshot being 6535 was kind
57:47of tilting because I think Woody Marks has been better than Dave Montgomery to start the year.
57:52Zach Charbonnet for obvious reasons. We talked about that earlier.
57:55Caleb Johnson, I thought looked the best in that backfield last week.
57:59I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a better workload this week.
58:02And this is a, an environment where there could be a positive game script.
58:06And like, you could see a scenario where he just kind of gets going.
58:11And then he's a guy that, you know, we're spending 10, 15% of our free agent budget on next week.
58:17Um, so I think he's an interesting stash, uh, Keaton Mitchell.
58:20Uh, I just think he's a better fitness offense than Amari and Hampton so far.
58:25And, you know, I don't know if he's ever going to see a massive workload, but I think he's at least interesting.
58:31Kendrick Miller, we already talked about him and then I just threw out handcuffs because I was going to start listing out like Seth McGowan.
58:39Yeah. Yeah. Seth McGowan type. Sure. Yeah. Just, just throw guys on your bench, you know, Kaylon black, because you never know
58:45what happened, what could happen to their, to their starter.
58:48Uh, I saw someone was talking about the look ahead stuff and Devin Neal.
58:53Cause he, he signed, uh, I think is, I think Jordan's Jordan Mason's going to be back soon.
58:58And I usually think Jordan Mason's out there, by the way, he might even be a by candidate because no one, no
59:05one's really talking about him right now. Okay. Next we got the wide receivers.
59:09Jordan Tyson doesn't sound like he's going to practice next week, but, uh, he's definitely still, still out there and 48% of leagues.
59:16So I got to shout them out. Khalif Raymond, they get green Bay next week.
59:20So he should still be rostered. Keenan Allen, you know, he's seen a lot of work now in the Indianapolis offense.
59:27So I didn't have him on the report, but I did see he did not practice today, uh, with a, with that groin injury.
59:34I did not see that. Yeah. Well, they got the London game on, on Sunday.
59:39That's pretty good to know because that would be a lot of Josh downs.
59:43If, if Allen's out, uh, Ted Hearst is another one where again, like we have no Jalen McMillan now for sure.
59:49Chris Godwin hasn't looked that great. I know that he had a touchdown called back, but, uh, Ted Hearst is like looked
59:56the part, but Ted Hearst is another one of those guys.
59:59One of those X archetypes that might be inconsistent.
60:02And this is not an offense. It's really scoring a lot of points, but still they get Dallas next week.
60:08See what happens this week. Stash them. Go for it.
60:11Yeah. The, um, the penalty that gets like the touchdowns called back.
60:15It's always so like, yeah, that one was legit play.
60:18Yeah. That one wasn't like legit hold that affected the play.
60:21The one, like the illegal formation type stuff. That's I forget who it was.
60:25Maybe to Corey Krosky merit or, uh, maybe it was Jalen Warren.
60:29One of them had a really long touchdown called back that when talk about legal shift or legal motion.
60:34Those are the ones that hurt. All right. Uh, let's get to the tight ends.
60:39You got Hunter Henry leading it off. Uh, yeah, I was very confused.
60:43Someone said Malik Davis in chat, but he's, he's done.
60:46He's not, that's not, that's not a handcuff that we're, that we are.
60:50Maybe look ahead waiver wire because he's on IR and he'll be back.
60:54Um, I think he's out for the season, isn't he?
60:57I don't think so. He had hip surgery. Yeah.
61:00I don't think this is a, I don't think this is a, uh, you know, oh, he's gonna be back in week
61:06five and he'll be the, the, the handcuff in Dallas.
61:09Um, anyway, Hunter Henry gets Vegas. It's a good matchup.
61:12Pat Friermuth who scored last night. He's not getting as good of usage as I would want it.
61:18Cause they're Darnell Washington has been a thing, but he does get Indianapolis.
61:22Kenyon Sadiq for obvious reasons. TJ Hawkinson gets new Orleans.
61:25It's been a good matchup this year. And then Greg Dolcich.
61:28Let's see what this Miami offense looks like without Devon H and how some of those looks are distributed.
61:34Uh, Dolcich, uh, it gets a good matchup next week in Cincinnati.
61:37Yeah. Davis is done for the year. Tyler Goodson is the, is the handcuff right now for Javante Williams.
61:43Okay. Uh, and then you got some team defenses.
61:46Bears get the Packers. We know the Packers line has not been very good.
61:50Uh, the Bengals get the dolphins. They're the top one.
61:53I would say if you're going to get a defense for next week, I would get, uh, Cincinnati cause they get Miami.
62:00Uh, the Cowboys get Tampa Bay and then the Browns get the New York jets.
62:04All right, let's wrap this up as a reminder, like subscribe.
62:07Um, we've got the newsletter that's free that, uh, Brandon, he's got his matchups column Monday.
62:12We got the data dump, uh, that we post on there.
62:16We have the 15 transactions and we have the Friday newsletter wrapping it all up.
62:20And that is free to go over there and sign up, become a member late round.com as well.
62:26And, uh, join the discord if you can. And then we have, uh, the quad box.
62:30Let's look at last week's quad box, Baltimore and Dallas bang, uh, Rams and Denver is pretty good.
62:36Minnesota Tampa Bay was gross. Uh, I think you probably picked that one.
62:40And then the, uh, charters and bills too bad.
62:42Yeah. Uh, definitely me, right? It might've been me.
62:45Uh, do you want to go first? I think there's an obvious first one.
62:49Okay. Uh, I would say, are you going first?
62:52Uh, Jags and bangles. Is that the obvious first one?
62:55Yeah. Are you going to go first then? Yeah, I'll go first.
62:59Okay. Then Jags and bangles. Jacks versus Cincinnati then first.
63:02Okay. Yeah. My, my second one, I will go with the bills and Patriots.
63:06Okay. You don't like that one? No, I do.
63:09Christian Gonzalez also is going to be out for this game.
63:12I just saw that. Yeah. We could see a little bit more, even more fireworks from, from like the Patriot.
63:18I'm just very interested to see the Patriots play football again because they've been so bad offensively this year.
63:24And then obviously the bills offense has a lot of pieces that are fun for fantasy.
63:29Okay. Uh, let's go with, by the way, the Christian Gonzalez injury does open things up a little bit for Keon Coleman
63:35to maybe be a deep sleeper, like very deep sleeper.
63:38Yeah. He should be good to go. Yes. He, he, he's banged up too, but he should be able to play.
63:45Okay. Let's go with, uh, Broncos and 49ers. I, you know, that's, it might be more of a good for football game,
63:51but I think that's, that's going to have some fantasy relevance for sure.
63:55I was either between that or, uh, the is actually between the Raiders and, uh, chiefs.
64:00No. Yeah. Here's, here's my, here's my hot take.
64:03Like the next two that I would choose from are the two primetime games.
64:07You get lions at Panthers. Yeah. Which should be a lot of fun.
64:11I'm actually going to go ATL versus new Orleans is the last.
64:15Okay. I think that that game is so interesting because we have so much up in the air about Michael Penix and
64:21what that offense is going to look like. And it's a good matchup for them overall.
64:26And then I think the saints are going to throw the ball 55 times in that game.
64:31Like they're there. It's a, it's a sort of been a pass funnel so far this year, number one in pass rate over expected allowed.
64:39And they don't have a running back, you know, like they don't have a reliable running back.
64:44Like I genuinely think the saints could throw the ball 55 times in that game.
64:48The, uh, is that the Steve Gleason game to my night football 20 years after the, it might be, it might be,
64:55I've been watching a lot of the, uh, been watching a lot of the, like the clips.
65:00I see them all the time on Tik TOK of reliving that play.
65:04The Tariqo call. Did you know that Tariqo wanted to make sure that when he said touchdown for the first touchdown to
65:11the same score, he'd say touchdown, new Orleans for the city.
65:14Which is like such a Tariqo is the best in the business.
65:18Yeah. He is so good at his job, especially after listening to Al Michaels last night.
65:23I was about to say, I didn't want to say it, but that's why I was laughing.
65:28Cause Al Michaels is one of, he's one of the goats, but he is, he's, he's, he's, he's losing when he starts
65:34comparing Jalen Warren to Bijan Robinson, like we get it.
65:37Bro is bro is dustier than, than Cortland Sutton.
65:40Yeah. All right. I'm just, uh, there you go.
65:43That's the quad box that we have for this week.
65:46JJ final thoughts. I'm excited for this week. Uh, I just appreciate everyone, man.
65:50This has been a fun season already and I'm just excited for more.
65:54Yeah. Uh, yeah. Echo that. Like I said, I have a good feeling about this Sunday and again, Monday we have the data dump show.
66:02Make sure you tune into that. Like subscribe. Uh, set reminder if you need to, but that will be 11 AM Eastern
66:08with, uh, Brandon Gadula and me and should be fun.
66:11We just appreciate the, the late round crew. I mean, we were just grateful for you all.
66:16So with that being said, have a great week for, and we'll see you next time here on the late round fantasy football show.
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