The Show: Middle-Round Targets, Camp News, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 1 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 6, 2026
Published
Thu, August 6, 2026
23
Player insights
20
Players mentioned
Topics
Mike EvansParker WashingtonRhamondre StevensonChigoziem OkonkwoDeebo SamuelDenzel BostonGarrett WilsonJonathan TaylorJonathon BrooksJosh DownsKeaton MitchellKenyon SadiqKimani VidalMalik Nabers
Player analysis
Player insights
Chigoziem Okonkwo
PositiveSleeper31:39
JJ Zachariason identifies Chig Okonkwo as a late-round target due to his history of slot usage and the Commanders' lack of established wide receiver depth, though he notes potential value fluctuation if Stefon Diggs signs.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
NegativeRole8:51
JJ Zachariason expects Deebo Samuel to start opposite Mike Evans and move around the formation, noting that while he will benefit from easy, low-A-dot looks in the Shanahan offense, he does not view him as a ceiling play.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
NegativeProjection20:28
JJ Zachariason acknowledges Denzel Boston's positive camp reviews and athletic profile but caps his ceiling at a player like Courtland Sutton, preferring Concepcion as a prospect.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeValue3:29
JJ Zachariason maintains a cautious stance on Wilson, ranking him only two wide receiver spots lower than the market and keeping him in a tier where he is not considered a worthwhile draft pick at his current cost.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeProjection29:13
JJ Zachariason has cooled on his fade of Jonathan Taylor, noting that while regression is likely, Taylor remains an elite talent and the outlook for the Colts' offense improves if Daniel Jones is healthy.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveValue49:22
JJ Zachariason targets Jonathan Brooks in the ninth round as a pure upside play. He contrasts Brooks' strong college pass-catching profile (83rd percentile adjusted receiving yards per team play) and tackle-avoidance metrics (94th percentile) against Chuba Hubbard, who has a career 0.85 yards per route run. Zachariason prefers Brooks over other options like Jake Ferguson in this range.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveUsage51:13
JJ Zachariason likes Josh Downs in the 10th round, noting that he has been highly efficient, ranking 14th and 40th in fantasy points per route run over his three-year career. With Alec Pierce banged up and a lack of outside threats, Zachariason believes Downs could expand his role beyond the slot, potentially developing into a solid WR3 or WR2.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
PositiveRole21:24
JJ Zachariason remains interested in Keaton Mitchell due to his fit in the Mike McDaniel offense, noting that speedy, smaller backs like De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert have historically thrived in these zone-based systems. While Mitchell has the archetype of a third-down change-of-pace back, Zachariason cautions against overstating his pass-catching role given the presence of other backs in the backfield.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
PositiveValue23:46
Despite a minor setback following hernia surgery, JJ Zachariason remains high on rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq for redraft leagues. Sadiq is an elite athlete drafted in the middle of the first round who is currently available in the double-digit rounds. Zachariason notes that Frank Reich's offenses historically favor tight ends and the team lacks a locked-in second pass-catching option.
Insight pageKimani Vidal
PositiveRole22:52
JJ Zachariason identifies Kamani Vidal as a good player who has already received praise for his pass protection, suggesting he could carve out a role as the team's primary third-down running back.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeValue24:01
JJ Zachariason warns that drafting Malik Nabers ahead of Drake London is premature given his ongoing injury recovery and the uncertainty of a new offense, placing Nabers as an early-to-mid third-round pick.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeValue34:36
While JJ Zachariason acknowledges Michael Wilson is a good player, he believes the situation and value are significantly better for Parker Washington in fantasy drafts.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveValue40:45
JJ Zachariason identifies Mike Evans as a highly undervalued player in fantasy drafts. Despite a minor quad injury, Zachariason argues that Evans remains the clear primary receiver in his offense with little competition for targets. He notes that Evans' efficiency metrics last year were hampered by poor catchable target rates from Baker Mayfield, but he remains a high-upside down-the-field threat.
Insight pagePositiveValue42:00
JJ Zachariason is in on Mike Evans, noting he saw a 27% targets per route run rate last year, which is above his career average. While acknowledging age concerns, Zachariason argues Evans is a perfect dart throw in the sixth round as a WR3 or WR4 in wide receiver-heavy builds, noting that his high touchdown rate potential provides significant upside.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue32:44
JJ Zachariason is high on Parker Washington, noting significant ADP discrepancies between best ball and season-long platforms. He ranks Washington as his WR29 and believes the offense will prioritize 11 personnel to keep him on the field, as Liam Coen's offenses often feature slot receivers.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout46:54
JJ Zachariason identifies Parker Washington as a high-upside target in the eighth round. Following Travis Hunter's injury, Washington posted a 78% route share and 15.6 PPR points per game, with his yards per route run jumping from 1.45 to 2.69. Zachariason notes that Washington fits the profile of efficient, low-volume players who historically outperform their ADP, and he benefits from Liam Coen's slot-friendly offensive scheme.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
NegativeRole22:18
JJ Zachariason expresses skepticism regarding Quinshon Judkins' pass-catching role in the Todd Monken offense, citing historical tendencies to split backfields and concerns about the overall team environment.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveValue27:07
JJ Zachariason is drafting Rhamondre Stevenson heavily, viewing him as a better value than Travion Henderson. Zachariason argues that if New England faces more negative game scripts this season, Stevenson is likely to see more field time, and he notes that Stevenson improved his ball security significantly over the final 13 games of last season.
Insight pagePositiveValue44:05
JJ Zachariason prefers Rhamondre Stevenson over TreVeyon Henderson at their respective costs. Stevenson showed strong late-season usage with a 71% snap share, 55% route share, and 13% target share during the playoffs. Zachariason views him as a safe, reliable pass protector who will stay on the field, especially if New England faces a tougher schedule that limits trailing game scripts.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
NegativeInjury8:20
Ricky Pearsall is out for the year, which has triggered a significant shift in the 49ers' wide receiver depth chart and ADP landscape.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
PositiveValue26:14
JJ Zachariason identifies Terrence Ferguson as one of his two highest-rostered tight ends, alongside Kenyon Sadiq, indicating he is a preferred target in current drafts.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeValue2:24
JJ Zachariason notes that while McLaurin remains a target in his draft guide, he is no longer the high-priority value he once was due to ADP shifts; Zachariason is now only one or two wide receiver spots ahead of the market.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBreakout35:21
JJ Zachariason is very high on Zay Flowers, noting his year-over-year efficiency improvements and better performance against press coverage. Zachariason anticipates increased passing volume for Baltimore, which could lead to a breakout season for Flowers, potentially including more red-zone usage similar to how Detroit utilizes Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:36Exclusions like taxes and fees apply. You're about to listen to the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube.
0:43If you'd like to catch the show live this off-season, you can head to the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, youtube.com slash atlateroundff.
0:50We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode.
0:55Welcome in. Welcome in. It's the The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
0:59Multiple news items to get to. JJ, we also have like the Hall of Fame game tomorrow and then the draft guide, of course, available at lateround.com.
1:08But you were telling us internally this morning, like there's gonna be a lot of changes to this week's update to the guide.
1:15Yeah. I think that what people should understand before you dig into these updates this week is that I don't hate players.
1:22I hate costs and the entire players to target and avoid in late-round dart throw sections are based off of where I
1:29have guys ranked, essentially, versus where the platforms have these guys ranked.
1:33And ADPs change. You know, since I published the guide, ADPs have changed and there are some players that I thought I
1:40was gonna be very, very low on because I was whenever things started.
1:44But like, you know, Terry McLaurin, his ADP in a lot of sites, I'm still a little bit ahead, but he's not
1:51really a target the same way anymore. And I'm trying my best to make sure that you're getting all the up-to-date information
1:58and such, you know, within the guide. Like I'll probably keep Terry McLaurin as a target, but realistically, I'm only like one,
2:05two wide receiver spots ahead of most of these platforms.
2:09Or like, on the flip side, Garrett Wilson, I had as an avoid early on, as a confidence of one.
2:15It wasn't really like a hard avoid. But I'm only like two wide receiver spots lower.
2:20I have them in a tier. It's just like not that worth it.
2:24With that being said, there are going to be players then that are added based on what ADP is saying now.
2:31And I think some of them are gonna be a little bit surprising to you, but it's just based off of, you know, where I have guys ranked.
2:40And so I gotta work off of that and work off of the updated ADP.
2:45And hopefully it helps you guys out the most, you know, in your fantasy drafts.
2:50Yeah. And that's why, and I'm not throwing shade at anybody, but that's why people love our draft guide is because it
2:57is constantly updated up until the season. If you buy a, like a, a magazine, and this is why I'm not throwing
3:04shade because magazines are great, especially great primers. But those things have to be done like in June, like early June.
3:10And a lot of stuff happens from June till the start of the season.
3:15I think that there's a lot of nostalgia to magazines.
3:18And I think if they're done right, you know, like realistically, there's a lot of evergreen type content in the late round draft guide.
3:26But for people who are looking for players to target players to avoid, you know, who's good against costs.
3:32Like those things are done, like you said, in, in late June into July.
3:36I mean, I've written for plenty of magazines in my time.
3:40And yeah, I mean, it gets outdated. I even like when they get published, I even look at some of my takes.
3:47I'm like, I don't even agree with that anymore.
3:50Yeah. I mean, that's, that's when you have like hard deadline dates.
3:54But yeah, also after this for if you're watching a, you know, or if you're listening on the podcast feed, we have, this will not apply to you.
4:03You can go back and listen, but, or go back and watch.
4:06But we have a draft right after this live stream draft.
4:10And if you are listening, just know that you can catch us most weekdays, not every weekday, but most weekdays at 1 p.m.
4:17Eastern time on the YouTube channel doing live streams, ripping Millie drafts.
4:21And I saw a comment yesterday. It was like, I really appreciate like some of the takes and just the stuff we
4:28get to do in between picks and get to ask.
4:31So it's very interactive. Get to know us. I'll be ripping at this today.
4:36You might be able to do one on Friday or tomorrow.
4:39We'll be like a three hour one earlier. We're just all in stuff.
4:43And I want to give a shout out to draft team as they are the time before the show.
4:50Draft one, get one. And then they also have week one salaries out for DFS.
4:54So that's always a fun time. And that being said, Jake, we have a lot of news to cover.
5:00Today's fantasy news. So Ricky Pearsall is now out for the year.
5:04You know, from my perspective, obviously, we're seeing a big bump in ADP with Dazon Stribbling.
5:09And wait. Oh, yeah. Now you guys don't even get to see the screen because kitchen left completely, which means the share screen is no longer there.
5:18This is an S show of an episode, folks.
5:21But with Ricky Pearsall, you know, I see D.
5:24I still have Debo ranked ahead of. And that's what the next line item would be of finally a veteran wide receiver
5:31signs, which is Debo Samuel signing with the 49ers.
5:34I think that Debo is going to be starting opposite of Mike Evans.
5:38He'll move around the formation. But with Pearsall out, I think Stribbling obviously becomes more attractive.
5:43I think Debo is going to be starting opposite of Mike Evans.
5:47And more than likely, you know, if you look at what he did last year, really wasn't a horrible yards per outrun
5:54rate, wasn't a horrible per outrun type player. But we do have to give a context that he did play in an
6:01offense where he was often the focal point of that offense because Terry McLaurin was banged up and there wasn't that much competition there.
6:09And, you know, Debo will get his like easy lower A dot looks, especially now that he's back with Kyle Shanahan.
6:15But but I do you know, I don't think that he's like the ceiling play.
6:20I think if you want to go for ceiling, it would be design Stribbling.
6:25With that being said, I'm look, I think that's true.
6:28And I've said this before on some shows. I think that Stribbling can work in the Shanahan system when you look at
6:35what his yards after catch profile looks like. That's been the type of player that has worked traditionally with Shanahan.
6:41I think that, you know, Shanahan can scheme up some easier looks for a player like him.
6:47With that being said, his analytical profile was really most definitely not great.
6:51You know, like he was, you know, we generally look at like random thresholds.
6:55It's just like a conversation starter for these guys.
6:58And with Stribbling, he was well below a career 2.0 yards per out run mark, which, you know, I'm not one of
7:05those people that says like, oh, you're below this mark.
7:08Therefore, you're bad automatically because this is just one mark.
7:12But across the board, you're talking like, you know, 40th percentile at best marks, you know, with his his production profile.
7:18I think that in that's age and schedule adjusted, I think if Stribbling went to almost any other team and in any
7:25other situation, we would not even if he had the draft capital that he did.
7:30We as a fantasy market would not be boosting him up the way that we're boosting him up.
7:36But, you know, in redraft, you know, I think in Dynasty, he's someone that I'm not going to be very high on.
7:43I think in redraft, he might be a late round dart throw based on the way that some of these platforms currently
7:50have things situated and how late he's going. And look, like the platforms that you'll draft in on your home leagues and
7:57such, you know, whether it's Yahoo or ESPN or wherever, they're generally going to be less reactive than we will as analysts and players.
8:05Right. So if you draft tomorrow and you're drafting on Yahoo or something, then all of a sudden you're going to have
8:12design shriveling as like a 13th round pick. Let's say he's buried, you know, over there in terms of where he'll be
8:19listed or like ESPN, he'll be buried where he'll be listed in ADP.
8:23And so you can take advantage of that. And that's why, like in the draft guide, I want to make sure that
8:30I'm calling those types of players out. So I do think he'll end up being a target this week.
8:36This is much more of a redraft take than a Dynasty take for me, because I do think that he has a very volatile profile.
8:44I didn't I didn't think that he was going to be a day to pick when I remember doing the pre draft version of the guide.
8:52And I wrote something along the lines of like, unless draft capital surprises us, we don't really have to worry about design shriveling.
9:00And then draft capital surprised us. Some people really like him that I that I like that that I think are good analysts.
9:07And so, you know, obviously, I think that's important.
9:10But from a process standpoint, analytics standpoint, I don't think design shriveling checks many boxes aside from the situation that he's in situation.
9:17I care a lot more about in redraft and in Dynasty.
9:21Now, obviously, in Dynasty, you can make the argument that, you know, if you have them, then obviously he's gained value just given this Ricky Pierce all injury.
9:30But from a season long perspective, we throw darts and, you know, you hope that situation can can overcome what might not be the perfect profile overall.
9:38I think shriveling can play like a Juwan Jennings type role.
9:42And I but I also don't want to overstate what that role is in the 49ers offense.
9:47You know, Jennings had a really good season a couple of years ago, was really good per route run.
9:53But it's not like it was like this consistent fantasy asset that that has was proven, you know, super, super, super valuable.
10:00So, yeah, I'm right now sitting and I'll talk about one of the other wide receivers later on.
10:06But right now, I think I'm at market with Debo and I'm a little bit ahead with with dribbling based on some
10:13of these season long platforms and what they're saying.
10:16Yeah, I was just excited that Debo. So we got to highlight one of the receivers on the the right hand side that had been there for forever.
10:25Yeah, we have reports that Deshaun Watson and shooter Sanders taking turns this preseason.
10:30I'm just not sure what to expect out of this Browns offense.
10:33And we have all these rookies here. I want to believe in Concepcion and all these guys fan in.
10:40But your take on just these two guys splitting reps.
10:43I mean, look, I think that the situation is gonna be pretty rough, but I also think they could see some negative
10:50game scripts, some some favorable passing volume in those situations.
10:53There's the ambiguity of like what this offense might look like, because, you know, you get Todd Munkin in there.
10:59It's a whole new coaching staff. I at this point, you know, I'll be honest, like Casey Concepcion might also be a
11:06target this week in the guide as a dart throw because these platforms are just really, really low on them.
11:13And I liked him as a prospect. I said it before, but I had Concepcion and Makai Lemon.
11:19The model, the Zap model had them pretty close.
11:21Like it wasn't like, you know, I know that other models had Makai Lemon like in the same tier as Jordan Tyson and Carnell Tate.
11:29Mine didn't. The Zap model did not. It had it closer of like a Concepcion, Makai Lemon thing.
11:35I like I like Makai Lemon more. But when you can get a really talented rookie, a rookie wide receiver as late
11:42as you're getting Concepcion, I think there's a lot of intrigue there.
11:46I've seen some. I think Jacob Sanderson made the comp before of like what if this is like a Garrett Wilson situation?
11:53Remember when Garrett Wilson was a rookie? He went really, really late because the situation was so bad.
11:59And, you know, Garrett Wilson's Garrett Wilson. I think that that's the right kind of like attitude to have.
12:05You know, obviously, I don't think Jacob would say like, oh, he's going to be Garrett Wilson.
12:10But like when you're in the double digit rounds, that's the right attitude to have about these players.
12:16You have to ask yourself, what if this guy is actually really, really good?
12:21And there were a lot of great marks for Concepcion as a prospect.
12:25I liked him a lot more than Denzel Boston.
12:28To me, Boston's one of those players where I'm not shocked that he is getting rave reviews in camp.
12:34He's a big body perimeter player, pretty athletic. And, you know, it's a specimen type, you know, look to him that I
12:41think will draw a lot of eyes. And look, I think he's a fine player.
12:46I just I saw Denzel Boston ceiling being like Cortland Sutton as opposed to a Drake London or something.
12:52Right. Like that that archetype of player, but not the same type of ceiling as like Ted Rowe McMillan or something like that.
12:59So I do like Concepcion a lot more. I think Concepcion is a really interesting dart throw.
13:04I still think Fannin is going to be pretty heavily targeted.
13:08Now, I do think that we're going to see some pretty serious regression based on what Fannin did down the stretch last
13:15year where he was getting to like that 30 percent target share pretty consistently.
13:19That's going to be really difficult to maintain. But, you know, overall, I hate the quarterback situation with a passion.
13:26Yeah. I mean, it's horrible. But but I do think that there could be enough volume here to at least allow the
13:33possibility for one of these guys to break out because the only guy that came in drafted early is Quinshot Judkins, who
13:40I personally have some qualms and issues with because I don't know how much of a pass catching role he's going to play.
13:47If you look at Todd Munkin offenses, historically, he almost always splits his backfield with pass catcher and early down player.
13:54And no matter what Deuce Staley says about him being a three down back, I don't disagree.
13:59I think Quinshot Judkins is fine enough as a pass catcher.
14:03I just don't know if they're going to deploy him that way.
14:07I think there's some volatility there. And then on top of that, it's a bad offense.
14:12Right. You know, it would I would feel a lot better if they didn't have Deshaun Watson and Shador Sanders.
14:18So this is all to say, I don't think I'm going to really change anything depending on who's under center, because I
14:25think that my overall conclusion is that whoever's under center is going to be bad.
14:30So I'm going to just lean into talent a little bit at wide receiver and probably target Casey Concepcion.
14:36All right. Malik neighbors last week got news that he was going to avoid the pup and his ADP has just started
14:43to really rise, especially in best ball. Very rarely is he falling out of the second round.
14:49He was in the fourth round. So thoughts on this Giants offense, because we also have had news that like maybe Jackson
14:56Dart is having a little bit of struggles there.
14:59So Malik neighbors, like how high is too high for you?
15:02I mean, right now we don't know what it's going to look like still at the beginning of the season.
15:09Right. Like he's still taking breaks. He's still not like full blown, just like practicing like he's completely healthy.
15:15So we don't know what that's going to look like to start the season.
15:19You know, I think in best ball, taking that on makes a little bit more sense because you're you know, that's that's
15:26a game where, you know, you have backup in the early weeks, especially where there's not by weeks.
15:32And then later in the season is is just you need that ceiling like crazy.
15:37Right. More so than in a in a season long league where you're just going one on one against against somebody.
15:43It's a 50 50 proposition versus, you know, a 1 percent type outcome that you need or 99 percentile type outcome that
15:50you need in the fantasy playoffs and best ball.
15:53So I understand his why is ADP is where it's at.
15:57My I draw the line at like probably Drake London for for Malik neighbors.
16:01Like unless we get like really, really bullish reports and like he's totally fine.
16:06He'll play week one. But like Drake London's really good.
16:09And he was phenomenal before he got hurt last year.
16:12So I don't want to get out of hand.
16:15I've seen him go ahead of Drake London in some best ball drafts already.
16:20And I think that's just way, way too premature, especially given the fact that this is a new offense.
16:26And that's part of the reason why I think Dart is struggling a little bit because it's just everything's brand new or at least reports are saying that.
16:35And so we don't even know what that's going to totally look like.
16:39Right. With with neighbors. I think neighbors is a is a special, special talent when he's fully healthy.
16:45If you were fully healthy, no questions asked. He'd be a one to turn type player probably.
16:50Right. But with all of these question marks, I just I have a really hard time thinking that he's going to jump
16:57a player like Drake London in rankings and maybe jump into that like really solid low end RB one tier that we
17:04like a lot of running backs in. So I do think that if you're drafting right now and you're getting him at
17:11the end of round two, you know, ahead of Drake London, then you're drafting him at his probable ADP ceiling.
17:18But, you know, I've been wrong before. I just that's kind of the the vibe that I get right now.
17:24Now I have him as like an early to mid third round pick.
17:28That's where that's where I have him ranked. All right.
17:31We also have reports of Daniel Jones running around like taking off on runs and someone who's recovering from an Achilles injury.
17:38Not really what we're expecting. Like we're not seeing that.
17:42I know it's a different injury. We're not seeing that of Patrick Mahomes.
17:46So thoughts on Daniel Jones and this Colts offense.
17:49Look, if he's healthy, I'm much more interested in the Colts offense, period.
17:53It's one of the main reasons why I've cooled off on like the Jonathan Taylor take of like not, you know, being
18:00a couple running back spots lower on Taylor. I do think there's going to be serious regression with Taylor versus last year.
18:07But Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs that we've ever seen play the game, period.
18:13But also at least in this era. Right. Right.
18:15And so, you know, I don't want to sit here and say regression is coming for this Colts offense.
18:21Therefore, Taylor is like this really strong fade if Daniel Jones is indeed healthy and looking the part.
18:27So I think it's big news for everyone involved there.
18:30The problem that we continue to run into is that Alec Pierce is still not back and healthy.
18:36And that's been kind of ominous at this point.
18:39Like it's just a very strange situation, especially after they gave him that really big contract.
18:44I'm expecting Keenan Allen to sign there and Stefan Diggs to sign with the commanders, which is sort of a good segue into this next item.
18:53Yes. Chig right now, the de facto wide receiver to commanders also say they still have interest in signing Stefan Diggs.
18:59He has not signed yet, though. Yeah. So I'm not that shocked by this because, you know, I did a lot of
19:06work in the draft guide and Chig was immediately when the draft guide launched a late round dart throw, you know, a target in that guide.
19:15Part of the reason for that is not, you know, previous season efficiency or anything like that.
19:20He was certainly not the most efficient player in the world.
19:24But but what I do like about Chig is that he's had a history of number one, he did have a history of one really efficient season.
19:32It was like, I think, his rookie year. But he's lined up in the slot at a pretty high rate throughout his career.
19:40And that does have predictive value, which is another reason why I'm in on Isaiah likely this year.
19:45You know, despite the fact that I don't think likely has been this like special player.
19:50But if a team sees that and they lack weapons around that player, there's a very real chance that they just play
19:57like a de facto wide receiver role, which is exactly why we're hearing what we're hearing with Chig Akonkwo out of Washington right now.
20:05And they don't like they don't have a number two wide out.
20:09You know, Antonio Williams hasn't stood out. But evidently, you know, Traylon Burks is the like the seems like their wide receiver
20:16to right now, which says everything you need to know about that situation.
20:20With that being said, before you go crazy drafting him in like the single digit round, just recognize that if they do
20:27get Stefan Diggs, I think Diggs is going to rise into like top 40 ish wide receiver range, you know, into that like Cortland Sutton area, maybe.
20:36And maybe that's hot takey, but that's also me just not being very high on Cortland Sutton.
20:41And obviously that would make Chig the third targeted player in that in that offense.
20:46I'm not a big fan of what they have at the running back position, though, either in terms of like gobbling up a ton of targets.
20:54You know, I think Rashad White could, but there's been a lot of Ja'Cory Krosky merit steam coming out.
21:00I've cooled off a lot on Rashad White as being sort of like the target in that backfield.
21:06But I don't think JCM and Bill has that good of a pass catching profile.
21:11So like there's definitely volume and opportunity for Chig to have, you know, the best season of his career this year.
21:18And they could go heavier to the new offense quarter.
21:21I think they will go heavier. Yeah. In Washington.
21:24Keaton Mitchell has been producing some highlights in camp for the Chargers in the past game.
21:29And we kind of knew he was a pass catching running back.
21:33But we're talking about like streak down the field.
21:36I mean, being on the field a lot there.
21:39You have Mike McDaniel. So you've been high on Keaton Mitchell kind of all offseason.
21:43Yeah. I mean, look, historically, he actually hasn't been that much of a pass catcher because like if you look at like
21:50his college stuff, 9% best season reception share in college, you know, he had 12 targets, one target and 11 targets.
21:57You know, the one target season was fewer games played.
22:00But even when he like burst on the scene in 2023, he wasn't getting that much work there.
22:06He has the archetype of that, though, right? Of like a third down change of pace type back, you know, of what
22:13we saw maybe 10 years ago more frequently in the NFL.
22:17Well, I'm not really shocked by some of this coach speak from McDaniel.
22:21I think Keaton Mitchell fits really, really well in this offense.
22:24It's one of the reasons why I don't you know, I'm not like high or low on a Warren Hampton.
22:31I I've kind of gone back and forth. There's like some weeks where I'm really high on Hampton and some weeks where I'm not.
22:38I think he might be a better and best ball type player because there's so much single game upside with a player
22:45like Hampton, given the offense he's in, that offensive line and, you know, his his big playability is there.
22:52But I do think that we could see a split backfield and Kamani Vidal's there, too, I think is a good player.
22:59And they've already talked about him being a good pass protector.
23:02So we could see Vidal play more of like that third down running back role.
23:07And then there's upside if there's, you know, an injury that happens to an Amarian Hampton or something.
23:13So I like Keaton Mitchell because the fit in the offense.
23:16We've seen speedy backs work with Mike McDaniel and work well with Mike McDaniel.
23:21Smaller backs to Devon H. And obviously comes to mind.
23:24But even like Raheem Mostert is someone that's not the biggest running back in the world and has had success, you know,
23:31in these like Shanahan type systems and zone systems.
23:34So I am I'm interested in Keaton Mitchell, continue to be interested in Keaton Mitchell.
23:39I just don't want to overstate what this pass game rule could look like because there are other backs in that backfield.
23:46OK, we had a little setback, according to Aaron Glenn, for Kenyon Sadiq.
23:50And he had hernia surgery for those that might have forgotten.
23:53He had hernia surgery. And I guess there's been some complications.
23:57They say they're confident he'll be ready for week one.
24:00Not what you want to hear, though, for a rookie tight end.
24:04Yeah, I mean, look, I think that he's still fine to target in season long leagues if you get him as like your tight end, too.
24:12I would pair him with somebody. But I do think the upside like I think we can honestly dumb this down with Kenyon Sadiq from a redraft perspective.
24:21This is not a dynasty take. But from a redraft perspective, you're getting a middle of round one rookie tight end, which
24:28we've seen rookie tight ends perform much better, you know, in recent memory than in history.
24:33And you're getting this uber athlete at tight end in the double digit rounds, deep in the double digit rounds in a
24:40lot of drafts who went in the middle of the first round who had a better age adjusted production profile than people realize.
24:48I think, what is he, 21.3 years old right now?
24:51Like he's still very, very young. And you're getting him late that late in an offense that should favor tight ends.
24:58Frank Reich historically has really favored the tight end position in his offenses.
25:02There's some data on that in the draft guide.
25:05And there's not a locked in number two pass catching option on that team.
25:09It's Garrett Wilson. And then, yeah, Omar Cooper. Yeah, Adnan Mitchell.
25:13Joel, but like those aren't guys that we know for sure can take on a massive target share.
25:18So I'm still in on Sadiq because I think that like I'm not I'm not trying to overthink this in the end.
25:25You know, if you want to cool off in best ball, which I probably will because you can't make up for the mistake.
25:33And it sucks because I was drafting him a lot in best ball.
25:37Yeah, I think that's that's fine. But in a managed season long league where you can just kind of see what happens
25:44to start the season at a very low cost.
25:47I think it's a really still a pretty sharp, sharp player to draft.
25:51Yeah. Last night was drafting a team and he fell.
25:54I'm like, I can't draft him. I already have enough of him.
25:58He fell like another two rounds to the 14th round at pick like 160 something.
26:03Oh, I saw him in round. I saw him in round 16 yesterday.
26:07Yeah, it's tough. Yeah, I can't do it. But people are going to be people are going to be in best ball.
26:14They're going to be taking Terrence Ferguson over Kenyon City pretty soon.
26:18Those are my two my for the record, my two highest rostered tight ends are those two is Terrence Ferguson and Kenyon City.
26:25All right. Same old, same old with Travion. We've got some reports that he's still not doing great in the past blocking
26:32role, which was one of the reasons why he didn't get to play as much last year for New England.
26:39And he has pretty high draft capital, JJ. The problem with Travion is that obviously, but also New England last season, they
26:46were they ran so many plays while leading because their schedule was really easy and they were good.
26:51Right. Like they just had a good team. And so I think they're going to run into some issues this year where,
26:58you know, they're not gonna be leading as much as they were last year.
27:03And if that's the case, then they're in these negative game scripts.
27:07And if they're in these negative game scripts, you're going to be looking at more Ramondre Stevenson, potentially.
27:13If Trayvon Henderson can't get his act together as a as a pass protector.
27:17You know, last season I'm looking at right now, New England was 27th in the league and percentage of plays run while trailing by seven or more points.
27:26Just looking at percentage of plays run while trailing.
27:29They were first in the league in terms of our lowest in the league.
27:33Right. Raw plays was was Seattle, but overall percentage was New England.
27:37And so if that flips even a little bit with a tougher schedule, we could then end up seeing Ramondre Stevenson on
27:44the field more than some people would expect. That's why I've been drafting a ton of Ramondre.
27:50It's kind of a dead area of the draft in best ball.
27:54It's sort of similar in season long, although there's going to be some wide receivers that I would prefer more on some of these season long platforms.
28:02But I have way more Ramondre than Travion this year because I'm worried like I just don't I don't know if there's
28:09any incentive right now for New England to really change things up.
28:13If Ramondre continues to play like he did during the second half of last year, first half of last year, Ramondre was not very good.
28:21The big thing with him is ball security. And he and he did secure the ball a lot better over the final
28:28like 13 or so games last season. I just like what evidence do we have that New England is going to change this up a lot?
28:36Someone said you're out on Stevenson. No, I didn't I just say the opposite of that?
28:42Did I misspeak? No, no. OK, yeah, a lot of.
28:45Yeah, I'm drafting a lot of Stevenson. I'm I'm far from out on Stevenson.
28:49I'm I'm I'm more out on Travion than I am Stevenson because I think there's just a lot of volatility to what that role could look like.
28:58And if he's not, you know, we don't know, you know, what.
29:02The the past protection stuff is like, we don't know how good or bad he's actually looked.
29:07We're just going off of what reports are saying, but I'm definitely not heavy Travion Henderson this year.
29:13Just given the fact that he's going amongst like other really good players in that in that area of the draft.
29:20Like, I know I don't need to be overweight.
29:22I think that he has big playability and that's it's scary because if you look at history, players with his kind of
29:29big playability as a rookie, they tend to play pretty well over the next couple of years.
29:35But it doesn't have to be this year. You know, I I think that we need to it's going to be a
29:42it might end up being like a slow burn until it really happens.
29:46And, you know, it can become easy to lose confidence in that kind of player early on in the fantasy season.
29:53Okay. Common guys. Also, for the record, for the record in chat, they're saying, I think Henderson still has more upside.
30:00I don't disagree. Yeah, I don't disagree. But the the there's a difference in cost.
30:04Yeah, right. There's a big bit. You're paying for you're paying more for that upside than you historically would have paid for that upside.
30:12Okay. Common guys give me PTSD. Someone who drafted a lot of Roshon Johnson and Marshawn Lloyd last year.
30:18We had a report that he's dealing with a soft tissue injury.
30:22However, he's back at doing team drills and in practice.
30:25So his his ADP on DraftKings has fallen a little bit.
30:29I think now it's like in the 108, 109 range.
30:32But I think he's going to be okay. But still, anytime we get these injuries like soft tissue injuries at lingering issues,
30:39especially with the Roshon stuff last year, it gives me a little bit of PTSD.
30:44Yeah, a little bit. I also have to say one more thing.
30:48Yeah, because I'm I'm now arguing with someone. You're still back on the.
30:52Yeah, because the response is upside wins championships. You're making the assumption that there's no other players in that area of the draft that has upside.
31:00I'm not even fading Travion Henderson, to be clear.
31:03What I am saying is I like Ramondre's value more than Travion Henderson's value in redraft.
31:08I'm not fading Henderson. I'm just saying that there are some points here that point unfavorably with Henderson.
31:14And there are very, very good high upside players that are being drafted.
31:18Like you don't need to preach upside wins championships when I literally talk about that.
31:23I've been talking about that for years on this show.
31:26So let's chill. You like Bayshall Tootin? That guy had any upside?
31:30Yeah, yeah, like Bayshall Tootin. Exactly. Like go look at season long ADP and you will see.
31:35OK, so someone says I'll take Hendo over Tootin.
31:38There's the difference. I like Tootin more than Travion Henderson.
31:41There we go. There's there's our there's the discrepancy.
31:44I'm glad that's why we play the game. That's why we draft the players.
31:49That's why we have our takes. We see how it plays out.
31:53All right. But I'm not. I'm not. I don't think it's like that.
31:57I think that we should just be projecting him the way that we were projecting him a month ago.
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32:44Okay, we have more Parker Washington love. I mean, this guy, every day, it's either we get a soundbite or we get a highlight clip.
32:52And the drum beat just continues to get louder and louder.
32:55Yeah, I mean, look, there's like crazy, crazy ADP discrepancies between best ball and season-long platforms with Parker Washington.
33:01So if you're drafting soon in your home league or your season-long league, get Parker Washington.
33:06He's like wide receiver 40 on some platforms. I have him at like wide receiver 29 in my latest update that I'll
33:13be publishing in a couple of days. You know, there's a lot of talk right now about them not wanting him to
33:20come off the field, which is probably the biggest hurdle for him.
33:24I think that if you're reading between the lines a little bit, and I'm not trying to like use the coach speaker,
33:31the reporting as everything here, but yes, they did spend on a blocking tight end in round two.
33:37They got Tanner Kozio later in the draft. You know, they went with a heavy tight end draft, and that may be
33:44signaled that they would go more 12 personnel. But one of the things that I talked about after they did that is
33:51that if they start to do that, they're going to be benching really good wide receivers.
33:56They're going to be sitting on the sideline. And eventually they're going to get to a point where they're like, why are we doing this?
34:04We're going to run more 11. We got to get these guys on the field.
34:09And they were thriving in this environment last year when Parker Washington became a bigger part of the offense.
34:15I just don't know why they would really change things up.
34:19And Liam Cohen's offenses often go through slot guys.
34:22So I think Parker Washington, you know, if you want to look at the two guys last year who kind of broke
34:29out out of nowhere, two wide receivers who are being drafted, you know, in the top 10 rounds this year, top eight rounds, really.
34:36Michael Wilson and Parker Washington. To me, the value is 100% with Parker Washington more than Michael Wilson.
34:42I mean, this offense should look good. Washington is a stud.
34:46Washington was a really underrated prospect, too. I remember the model back then, even though it's a completely different model now, I
34:53remember writing him up and being like, I'm kind of kind of intrigued by Parker Washington as a as a dart, you know, early declare not horrible production.
35:02Just took a little bit of time. I wish I would have held on to that prior a little bit longer.
35:08But I think he's actually a good player. I think Michael Wilson is, too, to be clear.
35:14I just think that the situation is better for Washington.
35:17OK, last bit of news. And we got to get on to today's data.
35:21Yeah, Bijan Robinson and Zay Jones. Zay Flowers, he said.
35:25Not Zay Flowers. Get paid. Handsomely. I saw a take from friend of the best ball bro show.
35:30So like that Zay Flowers could be wide receiver one this year.
35:34Like a wide receiver one or the wide receiver one?
35:37I think he said wide receiver one. I might have to go back and look.
35:42He's got to be saying a wide receiver one.
35:45It was a hot take. He very much admitted that it was a hot take.
35:50I am. I am very much a on the Zay train this year.
35:54You know, one of the things that is pretty interesting about his profile beyond all like he's gotten better from an efficiency standpoint year over year.
36:02You know, I'm going to I'm going to talk on today's data about something volume related.
36:07That's going to help Baltimore this season that I talked about on the regression episode.
36:12So they should see more volume. But also Harmon charted Zay and he was he's performed a lot better against press.
36:19And I think that's really interesting because the big issue is a is obviously what he's going to do in the red zone.
36:26And if he's better against press, they might force him the ball a little bit more.
36:31They might feel more comfortable with him in those moments where, you know, you're in like like goal line type packages and such.
36:39Right. Or you're in those kinds of formations, those like super heavy formations.
36:43So I'm a little bit intrigued if maybe they like use him in more of like like the way that that Detroit's
36:50used Aminra at times in the in the, you know, within the five, within the 10.
36:55I think that's a possibility. And so if we get if we get nine touchdowns, a it's game over.
37:01It's game. Yeah, I mean, that's and I think market score in the comps are kind of seeing that a little bit
37:08where, you know, he's getting that that year three JSN comp in there.
37:12And it's it's it's pretty intriguing. That's why I'm a couple wide receivers.
37:17But I mean, look, these platforms are still high on him, but they have not like wide receiver 16, 17.
37:23I think I'm not like wide receiver 13, 14 was there right now.
37:27It was friend of the perspective show. Andrew Erickson, who said it.
37:31That was his one of his bold takes. Number one bold take is a flowers is wide receiver one overall.
37:37So you went you you went with you went with Solak there because they're two analysts who look like they're 10 years.
37:44They look they actually are. They look very much alike.
37:48So in my brain. Yeah, it's just one of those things you're scrolling.
37:52Yeah, but yeah, don't they look alike? Kind of.
37:55I mean, they they look younger than they actually are.
37:58And they're both fantastic people. Same. All right. So let's get on to it.
38:02It's today's data. Today's data. Yeah. So today's data, I already talked about a little bit.
38:07I'm just bringing up what I talked about the regression show so you guys can like visually see what happens with regression.
38:14Now. It doesn't have to happen in a negative or positive way or only a negative way.
38:20If you will. It can happen in a favorable way.
38:23And so you're regressing to the mean. You're just getting back closer to that average.
38:28Whereas progression actually says we are getting better at this thing.
38:31Right. Progression happens with players. Yes. Like all the time.
38:35Like year one to year two. That's progression. That wouldn't be regression to a mean.
38:39That would be progression to getting better as a football player.
38:43And obviously there's like hundreds of different things that can happen to a football team from one year to the next that
38:50would allow that team to regress to some mean.
38:53But the bottom line is that at a high level things regress in fantasy football and in football.
38:59And we're seeing that right here. If you look at the 16 teams since 2011 with fewer than 28 past attempts per
39:06game really hard to sustain that their average attempts per game go up by like 4.6.
39:11Now Baltimore was under 25 last year. So these are so there's some teams in here.
39:16You can see the average attempts per game within the sample is 26.3.
39:20They're even below that, which means you should probably expect even even a little bit more regression to the mean.
39:26For a team like Baltimore, but their overall pass attempts go up.
39:30Their passing yards per game go up. Unsurprisingly, you get a little bit more passing touchdowns.
39:35You know, just in general, you see passing volume go up, rushing volume go down.
39:40And the two teams that were under that 28 mark last year were Baltimore and Washington.
39:45Washington was too. Obviously, Jaden Daniels was banged up.
39:48That played some role. But but also it's partially just the offense that they ran in general.
39:54So I'm intrigued by what we could see with the Baltimore volume this year, even Washington.
39:59I think we're going to see more. But this is just a visual of what regression is and, you know, why I
40:06talk about it as much as I do. Yeah, you said Washington quite a bit.
40:11And that leads us into a different type of Washington for today's main event.
40:15The late round main event. All right. We have favorite picks around.
40:19I've got like two different tabs open. We have favorite picks round six through ten.
40:24And so you're picking. This doesn't mean like you only like this player in each round.
40:29It just means like if you had to pick one, this is your favorite.
40:33That's what favorite means. It doesn't mean that the other 11 in that round are not people that you also like, JJ.
40:40I just want to clarify that. Yes, let's let's go with round six.
40:45I'll read him off. Mike Evans, Jadarian Price, Jalen Hurts, Roma Dunze, Harold Fannin, Christian Watson, Jalen Warren, Tucker Craft, Carnell Tate, Kyle Pitts, Brian Thomas, Chuba Hubbard.
40:53And the winner is Mike Evans. I almost picked Christian Watson out of that group.
40:58And here, by the way, it's fantasy pros ADB.
41:01I actually just grabbed last week's ADP because I didn't want any overlap with what we had talked about on last week's show.
41:09You know, this is just a fun exercise. It's not the biggest deal in the world.
41:14But Mike Evans, I actually think, is becoming very undervalued in the fantasy space.
41:18And I understand he's dealing with an injury right now.
41:21So, you know, you got to take that with a grain of salt.
41:25And, you know, the electrical substation is coming for everybody at this point, except for Christian McCaffrey.
41:31So, like, you know, and he's older. I get all of that.
41:35But how often do we see an injury to a clear, pretty clear number two receiver in an offense and people not even react at all?
41:43In fact, reacting negatively because of this injury to the quad for Mike Evans, which seems minor.
41:49At least that's the way they're talking about it.
41:51Not even reacting. They're reacting in a very neutral way about Ricky Pearsall being out when, to me, you now have more
41:58ambiguity with Debo Samuel, who was just signed off the street, even though he obviously has experience in the system.
42:05And Deson Stripling, who I talked about earlier. There's really, and George Kittle's coming off an Achilles.
42:10There's not much competition for Mike Evans in this offense.
42:13Not only that, if you look at last season, yes, he had his lowest yards per out run rate of his career at 1.62, which is not great.
42:22It's not horrible, but definitely not a great number.
42:25But he ranked outside the top 100 in catchable targets rate last year.
42:29It was a Baker Mayfield problem because Emeka Ibuka ran into the exact same issue.
42:34Mike Evans still saw 27% targets per out run rate, which is much higher than his career average.
42:40And we know that he's a down-the-field threat. And whatever you want to say about Brock Purdy, I think he's good.
42:47But he was first in the NFL in completion rate on 20-plus air yard throws last year.
42:52He's been top 8 in completion percentage over expected over the last two years.
42:57This is a high touchdown rate team, right? With the 49ers and Brock Purdy kind of bucking that trend year in and year out, seemingly.
43:05I am in on Mike Evans. I think Evans is a good...
43:08If he were like your wide receiver 1 in round 3, totally different scenario, right?
43:13But you can often get him as a wide receiver 3 or 4 in a wide receiver heavy build.
43:19That's a perfect kind of player to throw that dart at.
43:23I think there's a lot of upside with Evans.
43:26There's certainly downside. But I'm going to still shoot for upside, as we talked about earlier and established earlier, that upside wins championships.
43:33I will go for a player like Evans at the beginning of the sixth round.
43:38An average ADP? I'll do that all day. That touchdown rate could just be really beneficial.
43:43I will say, though, JJ, when I was creating the thumbnail for this show and typed in Mike Evans headshot and looked
43:50at all the images, it was like his first image for his rookie year compared to now.
43:56I mean, the guy looks so much older. I mean, he's old.
43:59I know. He's not young. He's a full-blown unk.
44:02All right. Round 7 is a running back round.
44:05We've got R.J. Harvey, Ramondre Stevenson. What's that? Spoiler alert.
44:08You scrolled down a little bit. No, I didn't.
44:11I didn't. R.J. Harvey, Ramondre Stevenson, Marvin Harrison, Caleb Williams, Rico Dowdle, Sam Laporta, Justin Herbert, Tony Pollard, Alec Pierce, Dak Prescott, Jackson Dart, and Kyle Menunga.
44:20I guess it's a running back and quarterback round.
44:23The crazy thing is that I think the round 8 players are better in some than the round 7 players, which is kind of wild.
44:31So my pick here is Ramondre. Talked about it earlier already that I like Ramondre more.
44:36Yeah, so shocking. I like Ramondre more than Travion at cost.
44:39I still have Travion ranked ahead of Ramondre Stevenson.
44:42I'm saying given the price, I do like Ramondre more than Travion slightly.
44:46But during the playoffs, he had a 71% snap share, 31% for Travion Henderson, 55% route share, 25% for Travion Henderson, 13% target share, 5% for Travion Henderson.
44:55He's the more reliable pass protector at the moment.
44:58I think that's going to keep him on the field because New England's schedule is going to be harder this year.
45:05Last year, they were 31st in total plays while trailing.
45:08And as I said earlier, they were dead last or 32nd in percentage of plays run while trailing.
45:14So if they have a much more difficult schedule this year, then they're going to be running fewer plays while trailing.
45:21You're giving me some weird emotions on your face right now.
45:24Are you confused? Is something happening? No, no, not at all.
45:28I was just I was actually reading reading the chat and I was thinking about doing something.
45:33The chat is guessing what who the player is.
45:36And so I was going to say next next round one.
45:40I want people to guess before that. So I yeah, I just want to make sure that I'm not I'm not I didn't mess up something here.
45:48Sam LaPorta? I think I think I think this all favors Stevenson.
45:52You know, people were concerned about the split backfield.
45:55But I think that when we look at Stevenson right now, he's being drafted around his projection.
46:00And then there's the upside of an injury happening.
46:03You can make the same argument for trade. Actually, you can't make the same argument for Travion because I don't think that
46:10a projection would put Travion where he's being drafted right now.
46:14Sure, upside exists more with Travion. But from a projection standpoint, you know, this is this is an ambiguous backfield.
46:20And, you know, you got to think about the contention upside piece.
46:24I just think Stevenson's a pretty safe bet. If you go with like a hero RB team, even a zero RB team.
46:31I don't think that he's a he's a bad dart, especially amongst this just not phenomenal group of players in this round seven range.
46:39Like I said, I like the round eight guys more than the round seven guys.
46:43Yeah. And I mean, you can even reach on some of these round eight guys because, like you said, round seven is is brutal.
46:51This is round eight. And you can guess who J.J.
46:54Who J.J.'s favorite is. D.K. Metcalf, Jordan Tyson, who he's got in the background.
46:59Trevor Lawrence, Michael Wilson, Cortland Sutton, Chris Godwin, Parker Washington, J.K.
47:02Dobbins, Makai Lemon, Blake Corum, George Kittle, Patrick Mahomes.
47:05So lots of receivers here. And the winner is.
47:08Parker Washington, like I said, he's 91st overall, according to this ADP, which is just wild to me.
47:14I like Jordan Tyson a lot in this range.
47:17Also, if he if he's really going that late, I don't love Cortland Sutton.
47:21I don't love Michael Wilson necessarily. If you're getting Parker Washington after those guys.
47:26So Parker Washington to me is the pick here.
47:29Coach speak camp hype. It's been out of control.
47:31Yeah, the thumbnail had Parker Washington kitchen. So clearly, well, that one person got it.
47:36One person got it. But look, after Travis Hunter's injury, it was around the bye.
47:41It was the bye week. Right. Parker Washington had a route share of 78 percent.
47:46He had 15.6 PPR points per game. He went from a one point four or five yards per hour run rate to two point six nine.
47:54That two point six nine yards per hour run over that stretch was one point two yards better than Jacoby Myers and Brian Thomas Jr.
48:02During that that span. There's been 10 wide receivers in the ADP database that we work with that goes back to 2014.
48:09They were drafted in the wide receiver 19 to 42 range who averaged fewer than 12 points per game in that previous
48:16season, which Parker Washington did because he didn't come on until late in the season, but had also a two point zero
48:23yards per hour run rate or better. And actually, Terry McLaurin and Luther Burden both fit this as well this year.
48:30But basically, these are players who were really, really efficient, but didn't see a ton of volume.
48:35Right. Of those players, they outscored their ADP expectation on average by one point two PPR points per game.
48:42And that includes a guy really dragging things down.
48:44And Devin Funchess. You guys remember Devin Funchess? Oh, yeah.
48:48Again, I talked about it before. Liam Cohn's offenses often target the slot.
48:52We've seen it with like Chris Godwin. We've seen it with Cooper Cup.
48:56I mean, it's Wanda Robinson in college. I mean, there's there's a lot to like about Parker Washington right now.
49:02And it's crazy that these platforms still have them ranked as around eight player.
49:07Yeah. Do you even think Devin Funchess was a wide receiver?
49:10I mean, especially. I mean, he was probably should have just played tight end.
49:15Tight end. Yeah. OK. People are going to be trying to guess the silhouette now in the thumbnail since you gave that away.
49:22Round nine. Travis Kelsey. Dalton Kincaid. Brock Purdy. Bo Nix.
49:25Jonathan Brooks. Kenny Gainwell. Isaiah Likely. Matt Stafford. Jacoby Myers.
49:29Michael Pittman. Jake Ferguson. And Ja'Cory Kroski Merritt. And the winner is.
49:32Jonathan Brooks. As the guy here. Again, this is a pure upside take, you know, and stance where I just look at Chuba Hubbard.
49:40I think he's fine. His ADP is a lot more appealing this year than it was last year.
49:46I think Chuba Hubbard is just like a fine player.
49:49He's never been great in terms of yards per out run, you know, as a pass catcher.
49:540.85 over his career. That's not a great number for a guy that's that's you're hoping to see consistent looks through the air.
50:02Jonathan Brooks actually had a pretty good pass catching profile in college.
50:06He was 83rd percentile and adjusted receiving yards per team play, which is adjusted for both strength of schedule and age when
50:13hitting, you know, with whatever he did within receiving yards per team play.
50:1794th percentile in college and avoided tackles per attempt according to PFF.
50:21So this is really just an upside play. You know, we're in an area of the draft where upside just everything round nine.
50:28I would much rather just get Jonathan Brooks than, you know, I mean, Jake Ferguson.
50:33What are we even doing? Imagine like sitting there thinking, should I take Jake Ferguson or Jonathan Brooks?
50:39I mean, it's just Jake Ferguson splits last year when when those two wide outs were healthy were atrocious, you know, and
50:46even like like I like Michael Pittman this year.
50:49But I think Brooks at least has like the the upside, you know, there.
50:53I don't mind Kenny Gainwell either. I just I still think Brooks is the guy that would have more upside, you know, in this round amongst these players.
51:02All right. And last round 10, we have Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Rashad White, Aaron Jones, Wanda Robinson, Jared Goff, Mark Andrews,
51:09Jordan Mason, Jaden Reed, Dallas Goddard, Josh Downs and Xavier Worthy.
51:13And my pick is Josh Downs. A lot of guys in this range that I don't mind this year.
51:19Yeah. You know, I like a lot of these players as sort of like some you might want to stay away from, though, in this round also.
51:27Yeah, for sure. But but I like, you know, Jaden Reed, Jordan Mason, Wanda Robinson, Rashad White, I think is fine.
51:34But I've cooled off a little bit, like I said.
51:37But Josh Downs, they're talking about him playing on the outside largely.
51:41I mean, they have to write like Alec Pierce is banged up.
51:45They have no one outside of downs as like any sort of legitimate threat at wide receiver.
51:50And I'm an Ashton Doolin guy. You know, I think he's great.
51:54Like a really underrated player, I should say. I should not say that he's great, but a really underrated player.
52:01But, you know, I just it's wild to me that their their their current depth chart looks the way that it does,
52:08which is why I think they're going to bring on someone like a Keenan Allen.
52:12But Josh Downs is ranked 59, 64th and 68th in route share over his three seasons in the NFL.
52:18But he ranked 59th, which, you know, that was that was in line his first year with his route share.
52:25But he's ranked 59th, 14th and 40th in fantasy points per route run over this time frame.
52:30That's that's in offenses that like aren't that great.
52:33Last year was obviously a lot better, but last year he had a 68th percent route share and he was 40th in fantasy points per route run.
52:42So if that efficiency translates in any way and I do the zap model really like Josh Downs.
52:48He had a really, really good age adjusted production profile in college.
52:51I think he could be more than a slot.
52:54Similarly, I think Jaden Reed can be more than a slot.
52:58And if that happens, there's a lot of upside that could that could hit.
53:02You know, he could end up being like a really, really solid wide receiver three, maybe even into wide receiver two range of things go his way.
53:11So Downs, who I think is a great separator, he's got really good like short area quickness.
53:16You know, I think he's a great player. And so in the 10th round after play, you know, like going right before
53:23Xavier Worthy, I will take the chance on Downs before going Worthy's direction.
53:28All right, JJ, that will do it for the round six through 10.
53:32And for those wondering, no, we we don't have rounds 11 through 15.
53:36Those are card dart throws that you can buy by purchasing the late round draft guide.
53:41So with that being said, let's get out of here.
53:44All right. Just a reminder to like, subscribe, comment.
53:47And immediately after this, this show will be redirected for a DraftKings live stream that I will be doing.
53:53We'll be living a little. We'll be drafting some some teams.
53:57JJ, you really liked your team yesterday that you drafted on stream.
54:01Yeah, I liked it more than the chat did yesterday.
54:04Yeah. Yeah. Solid. You can't. I mean, the chats there is part of the chats job sometimes is just to give you a hard time.
54:12I have come to realize like not everyone's going to love what you do in your draft.
54:17And I want to before we get out of here, since we have about five minutes, I want to answer a question that we just got in chat.
54:26OK, says JJ, I have a question about the market score model because people have had plenty of questions about market score,
54:33which for the record, we're going to be iterating and getting better with market score this offseason and in future years and stuff.
54:40So this is by far not the final product of market score.
54:44But he says, I don't get the thesis behind it.
54:48If ADP is efficient, then how would a regression over previous season data provide an edge?
54:53Wouldn't that be priced in? Well, because ADP is not fully efficient, right?
54:57Similarly, draft capital with the NFL draft is not fully efficient, but it's a good thing to lean on.
55:03It's a good thing to look at when you're trying to decide if you want this player or this player.
55:09You know, you wouldn't just look at a sixth round wide receiver and generally draft him over a second round wide receiver.
55:16It's no different with this. ADP is a good tool.
55:20It is a tool that is not unpredictable. Like it's it's it's a a good way of seeing how well a player
55:27is going to perform and in that given season versus everything else that we're working with.
55:32But what market score does is that it takes ADP.
55:35It layers on a bunch of previous season metrics and it just makes ADP more efficient.
55:40If you want to think of it that way, like if you were to look at an ADP list and you were
55:47to look at the market score list, the market score list is going to be more predictive than the ADP list.
55:54Right. Right. It's and for the record, market score is not how I rank players.
55:59Right. Market score is not the way that I you know, it's just another tool for me to like or dislike a player and do my player analysis.
56:08And I like what Luke was saying in chat market score detects the inefficiencies.
56:12I think that's a really good way of thinking of it.
56:16Like if you read the late round draft guide, a lot of the work that I'm doing is against ADP expectation because
56:23I'm trying to find things that the market might not be capturing with ADP.
56:27And that's what market score is trying to accomplish as well.
56:31So that's what it really comes down to in the end.
56:34It's not the end all by any means. I disagree with markets where like I think Mike Evans is actually a pretty
56:41good pick and market score hates Mike Evans this year.
56:44You know, but I'm using market score to be a little bit more level headed with some of my takes.
56:51And I think it's just a fun tool for us to to look at and, you know, be shocked by and to
56:58just, you know, get a little bit deeper into this hobby that we all love.
57:03You know, it's not the end all. It's just another tool for us.
57:07Another metric, another tool. Speaking of additional resources, we have a nice little newsletter that's going to drop either today or tomorrow from Mr.
57:14Brandon Cadula. You want to make sure that you have signed up there.
57:19It's free. And also, late round dot com. While you're there and you want to get a membership to this site, you
57:26want to join us in our discord or chat.
57:28Then then go over there. Click on the memberships tab and sign up for an explore tier.
57:34Here are the insiders tier gets the the discord access and the all access gets everything that that we have as far
57:41as the draft guide, the prospect guide, all the updates.
57:44And you can find that if you're an all access member or you're becoming one.
57:49You can find that in the membership hub. Click downloads and you'll see both the draft guide and the prospect guide to download.
57:56Also, draft kings again. Shout out to them. Promo code late round.
58:00They've got a another DFS offer. I told you they had they came out with salaries this week.
58:06But if you are a new draft kings depositor, you can score a week one ticket ticket play free for a share
58:13of millions and prizes to kick off the season with your first deposit of five dollars or more.
58:19And you'll get a free ticket to the millionaire contest there.
58:22And JJ, I think that's it. Final thoughts. Sorry for the first 10 minutes of this show, especially audio listeners where you're
58:29not even visually seeing the the calamity and the insanity.
58:32And I'm sorry I gave you a weird look, JJ.
58:36Look, when I look when I'm made like in the middle of talking about something and I start seeing you look like
58:43it's like my am I is this another to a situation right now?
58:47Like am I? No, we probably come up with some signs.
58:50Yeah, like this means no wrong player. But yeah, like if I like maybe I do my ear, it's like check the chat.
58:58But no, I was just like in deep thought about the comment section guessing like that was something I really hadn't anticipated.
59:05So I was already planning on. I got you.
59:08And I like look, we had we had good commentary from the commenters and viewers this week where, you know, we get
59:15to go back and forth a little bit. That's the whole point of this, you know, like to me, the whole point
59:22is to discuss football, discuss fantasy football, have fun with it, get better at it.
59:27And, you know, this isn't like a fight. You know, this is a this is a you're listening to this show because we all want to get better.
59:35And we're on the same team here. So I appreciate the banter and the chatting this week.
59:41Last question. Are you watching Hard Knocks this year?
59:44I have not started Hard Knocks, but I will be watching the challenge in the next 24 hours, which I'm very excited about.
59:51It's my guilty pleasure show. OK, and last but not least, one shout out Alex Cups, the guy that won the So You Think You Can Tout championship.
60:00JJ's guy, my guy. We were excited for for cups.
60:03And if you guys didn't check out that series that Pete Overs that did check out So You Think You Can Tout on YouTube.
60:11It's a really fun show. You can I mean, you could honestly like binge it at this point, right?
60:17Like you could just go through and and watch it.
60:20And, you know, we were guest judges one week and it was a lot of fun.
60:25And yes, shout out the cup. So I it was my one on one.
60:30And I'm very happy that he he got it done.
60:33Appreciate Matt in the chat saying he watches the show because he's a kitchen fangirl.
60:38So, hey, you know, we all have. All right.
60:41I'm going to get a drink of water and I'm going to get on the live stream on the channel.
60:47This video will redirect to that as well. But we appreciate everyone in the comments.
60:52And yeah, hang out with us for the next hour as well.
60:56But shout to DraftKings for sponsoring the show. And we'll see you next time here on the Late Round Fantasy Football Show.
61:03Peace. This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Guaranteed human.
