The Show: ADP Discrepancies, Injury News, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 6 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 20, 2026
Published
Thu, August 20, 2026
39
Player insights
36
Players mentioned
Topics
Courtland SuttonJeremiyah LoveNico CollinsAlvin KamaraBreece HallBrian Thomas Jr.Chase BrownChris GodwinChris OlaveD'Andre SwiftDallas GoedertDalton KincaidDalton SchultzDarren Waller
Player analysis
Player insights
Alvin Kamara
NegativeInjury14:02
Alvin Kamara is expected to miss a month with an MCL sprain, which JJ Zachariason notes boosts the value of Travis H. as a potential bell-cow back.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveValue28:13
JJ Zachariason remains high on Breece Hall, drafting him in the third round and noting that his three-down potential and talent outweigh his current situation. He considers Hall a value when he falls to the mid-fourth round on DraftKings.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeValue38:59
JJ Zachariason is not particularly high or low on Brian Thomas Jr. for managed leagues due to a crowded receiver rotation, but he considers him a good pick for best ball formats.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue47:06
Zachariason ranks Brown as his RB8 (1.12 ADP) and considers him significantly undervalued on ESPN (2.11 ADP). Brown posted 20 points per game with Joe Burrow last year and maintained a 14% target share, indicating a stable, high-upside environment.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue17:53
JJ Zachariason recommends bumping up Chris Godwin in rankings, noting he has been a value all season and is now a target in his draft guide following the Emeka Egbuka injury.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveUsage13:39
JJ Zachariason is now high on Chris Olave relative to the market following the Jordan Tyson injury, as he no longer fears a reduction in Olave's target volume.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
PositiveBust61:16
Zachariason reiterates that Sutton is overvalued across major platforms, including CBS, ESPN, and Sleeper, where he is consistently drafted as a top-36 wide receiver.
Insight pageNegativeValue101:59
JJ Zachariason considers Cortland Sutton overvalued at his current ADP, which ranges from the sixth to seventh round across major platforms (WR29-WR32). Zachariason ranks him as the WR41 in the eighth round, citing his sub-20% targets per route run rate last year and a lack of elite production since his second NFL season. He prefers drafting players like Pat Bryant at their respective ADPs over Sutton.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
PositiveValue29:30
Following Kyle Monungay's injury, JJ Zachariason has bumped up Deandre Swift in his rankings, noting that Swift is a decent value as he is being drafted later than his current rank.
Insight pageDallas Goedert
PositiveValue57:41
Zachariason highlights Goedert as a value on Sleeper (TE15). He notes that Goedert was highly efficient (0.81 fantasy points per route run) when AJ Brown was off the field last year, suggesting significant upside in the new offense.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveBreakout60:16
Zachariason ranks Kincaid as his TE10 and a favorite target. Kincaid led all TEs in yards per route run (2.79) last year but had a low route share; a 10-15% increase in route participation could easily propel him into TE1 territory.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
NegativeUsage21:06
JJ Zachariason anticipates the Texans may rely more on 'cheap stuff' to Dalton Schultz, similar to his usage patterns from last season.
Insight pageDarren Waller
NegativeProjection37:50
JJ Zachariason is skeptical of Darren Waller's fantasy utility in Carolina, noting he will likely be the third option in an offense led by Bryce Young, making him a streaming-only option at best.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeValue32:44
JJ Zachariason considers Devon Achane an 'avoid' at his current ADP, arguing that a late first-round pick is too expensive for him.
Insight pageDe'Zhaun Stribling
PositiveBreakout12:08
JJ Zachariason admits his initial ranking of Stribling (WR8-10) was a mis-evaluation, as Stribling has looked great in preseason and is now a priority over Omar Cooper. While Zachariason advises against paying high dynasty prices, he recommends drafting Stribling in redraft leagues as a late-round dart throw.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeInjury16:07
JJ Zachariason has moved Emeka Egbuka down in his rankings due to a lingering toe injury, placing him in a tier with players like Ladd McConkey and Tee Higgins rather than his previous tier with Zay Flowers and DeVonta Smith.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeValue55:01
Zachariason has moved Wilson up his rankings to match the market (WR21). While he previously viewed him as a 'fade,' he now believes the volume will be there due to injuries to teammates, though he notes Wilson has never exceeded 2.0 yards per route run.
Insight pageJalen McMillan
PositiveSleeper18:03
JJ Zachariason identifies Jalen McMillan as an interesting late-round dart throw to hedge against the Emeka Egbuka injury, noting he is returning from his own injury.
Insight pageJayden Higgins
NegativeInjury16:56
Jaden Higgins suffered a torn ACL, which JJ Zachariason describes as a major blow to the Texans' offense and a disappointing development for an ascending second-year player.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveProjection103:23
JJ Zachariason believes Jalen Waddle has the potential to be a "studly" player in the Dolphins' offense this year.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeRole26:18
JJ Zachariason downgraded Jeremiah Love following a high ankle sprain, citing concerns that the coaching staff may avoid giving him a bell-cow workload and instead utilize Tyler Allgeier. He now ranks Javonte Williams and Kyren Williams ahead of Love.
Insight pageNegativeBust49:27
Zachariason is bearish on Love, citing a high-ankle injury, a committee-based role, and a poor offensive environment led by Jacoby Brissett. He notes the Cardinals have the league's toughest schedule and lowest implied team totals.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveBreakout41:59
JJ Zachariason views Coleman as a high-upside player with a strong production profile and prospect model backing; he is a threat to both RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins, leading Zachariason to bump down those two veterans in his rankings.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury12:05
Jordan Tyson will be out for at least two months due to a hamstring injury. JJ Zachariason notes that while the injury was a known risk, it is a significant blow to the Saints' offense and removes a player who had been performing as one of the best on the roster during camp.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveValue15:17
JJ Zachariason considers Juwan Johnson a 'smash' pick at his current ADP, noting that he is likely the Saints' number two target following the Jordan Tyson injury.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
NegativeUsage35:18
JJ Zachariason notes that Keenan Allen's arrival in Chicago is a slight hit to Josh Downs' target share, though he expects Downs to still see increased route participation in 11 personnel.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeValue51:45
Zachariason ranks Williams as his RB15, which is largely in line with market expectations. While he notes that some platforms have him higher, he prefers other wide receivers available in the same draft range.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveValue59:16
Zachariason is a strong proponent of Burden, ranking him as a 4th-round talent despite his 5th/6th-round ADP. Burden was a top-10 WR in targets and yards per route run during the latter half of last season.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveValue24:45
JJ Zachariason views Mike Evans as a smart target for his upside despite recurring quad and ankle injury risks; he notes Evans' ADP is suppressed, particularly on platforms like ESPN where he falls into the 80s.
Insight pageNajee Harris
NegativeRole33:55
JJ Zachariason expects the team to use Najee Harris more than expected as a depth piece, noting that coaches seem to favor him despite superior talent elsewhere on the roster.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveUsage19:37
JJ Zachariason notes that Nico Collins receives a fantasy boost due to the forced volume expected in the Texans' offense following recent injuries to teammates.
Insight pagePositiveUsage21:00
JJ Zachariason expects Nico Collins to see increased volume and get 'fed' more in the Texans' offense due to the current wide receiver injuries.
Insight pageOmar Cooper Jr.
NegativeDepth Chart10:27
JJ Zachariason notes that Omar Cooper is struggling to find the field and is currently listed as the Jets' WR4, leading to a downgrade in his rankings relative to other rookie wide receivers.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeProjection52:36
Zachariason ranks Rice as his WR15, noting concerns about his injury recovery and potential offensive changes with Kenneth Walker. He prefers Devante Smith and Zay Flowers over Rice, though he acknowledges Rice's high fantasy production when active.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveDepth Chart20:47
Following the injury news regarding Jaden Higgins, Tank Dell is expected to move up the Texans' depth chart, increasing his fantasy relevance.
Insight pageTee Higgins
PositiveValue53:45
Zachariason views Higgins as a steal on ESPN (WR21, early 5th round). Higgins averaged 17.1 PPR points per game with Joe Burrow last year and offers contingent upside as a WR1 if Ja'Marr Chase misses time.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeBust48:08
Zachariason considers McBride overpriced at his current ADP, noting that his 2023 production was inflated by a league-high route volume. If his route share regresses, his fantasy output would drop by 3-3.5 points per game; additionally, the potential for Carson Beck to start later in the season adds risk.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveValue36:41
JJ Zachariason considers Tucker Kraft an undervalued tight end who has been highly efficient; he ranks him as a top-five tight end and suggests he could be a game-changer this season.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveValue58:27
Zachariason ranks Flowers as his WR14 and considers his Sleeper ADP (WR19, 4.05) a huge value. He cites Flowers' absurd per-route efficiency and expects the Ravens' passing volume to regress positively from last year's low levels.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:30That's LifeLock.com code FOOTBALL. You're about to listen to the The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, which originally aired on YouTube.
0:36If you'd like to catch the show live this offseason, you can head to the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, youtube.com slash atLateroundFF.
0:43We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode.
0:48Welcome in. Welcome in. It's the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show sponsored by DraftKings.
0:52David Kitchen here alongside JJ. We have some no huddle data, JJ, and we're kind of in no huddle mode right now.
0:58Yeah, it's been crazy. And look, I've heard from you.
1:01If you want updated rankings, we will be updating ranking or I will be updating rankings today.
1:06You don't need to email me. You don't need to message me.
1:10I know it's coming. I know you have a draft tonight.
1:13You know, I get it. And there's a lot of stuff that happened.
1:17Yeah. Yeah. You know, if I ignore that email, it has nothing to do with like that.
1:22It's just I literally can't get to everything. I mean, we get questions all the time about like, hey, my league settings are X, Y and Z.
1:30And I would love to sit down and, you know, talk through your league settings and what to do.
1:36It's just literally impossible. There's just a lot of people.
1:39And I'm very thankful and grateful for that. But hopefully you guys understand, which is why, honestly, we have the price points
1:45where we do with with the things that we sell.
1:48Is that seems fair? You know, I'm active on discord all the time.
1:52I'm there answering questions, you know, during the live streams and stuff.
1:56And, you know, I just I can't get to everything.
1:59Unfortunately, just the nature of where we're at right now.
2:02Yeah. Speaking of that, we have our draft guide available, late round dot com.
2:06You can go on late round dot com, the new late round dot com and sign up for the newsletter.
2:12Speaking of ADPs, we had an ADP newsletter, biggest ADP differences from brandadula that went out this morning.
2:17And then we also have the all access plan where you can become a member and you are.
2:23If you become an all access member, you get everything that the insider members already have.
2:28But you also get the guides that we release every year.
2:31So that's included in your included in your plan.
2:34And again, just piggybacking off of what JJ said, like we're we're working hard and we would very much like your support.
2:40And we I mean, I just appreciate everyone who is already voiced so much support already and for the for the guide and for everything else going on.
2:49So we are starting this year a week later than usual.
2:52And people are still gearing up this early. I have never.
2:55I can't remember like a week in the preseason that has been this much movement as far as injuries go, JJ.
3:01Yeah, I mean, yeah. And it's a pain in the butt because we don't know injury timelines.
3:07And so I know when these rankings are published, it's going to be question after question.
3:11So hopefully they make sense. And I did want to caveat with what I caveated with, because it's just going to be
3:18impossible to get to every single one that comes my way.
3:21Yeah. Also want to just give a shout out to DraftKings.
3:25And they are. Genuously or genuously. I don't know.
3:27Generously. Generously. Genuously is genuine and generously. But they are genuine about it.
3:31Yes, they are. But they're generously sponsoring our show so that we can put it out there for you guys.
3:37Also, we have the Best Ball streams on our YouTube channel.
3:40And I think we'll even be doing a stream after this.
3:44JJ, if you can't, I can. Just let me know.
3:47I can do it. I can do it. It's scheduled.
3:50It's already scheduled. So it'll autoplay after this. If you're listening on demand, you can go back and watch it as well.
3:56We've got live streams most weekdays around 1 p.m.
3:59Eastern time. So a lot that is happening. We appreciate everyone again for tuning in and just being interactive on this show.
4:06It's going to be a fun show, JJ. There's going to be some sad elements to it, but it's going to be a fun show.
4:13Are you ready? Let's do it. All right. Let's get into today's news.
4:17Today's fantasy news. I didn't want to be a Debbie Downer, but like all this injury stuff.
4:22And, you know, it'd be different if there was injuries to guys that we didn't like.
4:27Yeah. Kidding. Halfway kidding. But let's talk about first about the preseason week one reaction.
4:31I'm giving you the microphone, JJ. And, you know, you do with it whatever you want to do.
4:37It's your company. Look, my reaction is that people love to overreact about the preseason.
4:41That's my reaction. It's like we've never seen. Look, I think there's a I said this from the start.
4:47I actually put this on Twitter yesterday. X. Sorry.
4:50Where we had talked about this on the show for like weeks and weeks and weeks during draft season.
4:55Where, in my opinion, analytically, this wide receiver class, because obviously the running back class was just top heavy and it wasn't very strong.
5:02So we don't really need to talk about the running back class.
5:06The wide receiver class is where things are interesting.
5:09And the analytical side of things for this wide receiver class was not very strong.
5:13Like I thought that there was a pretty clear big four in the class because I would include Casey Concepcion because the
5:20model saw him pretty similarly as as Mekhi Lemon from a prospecting standpoint.
5:24And then after that, like the model didn't really like Omar Cooper that much versus where he was drafted.
5:29You know, Denzel Boston was fine. It wasn't like fantastic, but he was fine.
5:34Like you could see, you know, why someone would really like him, even analytically.
5:38You know, Deson Stribling had a lot of red flags.
5:41And then every basically every single round two and round three wide receiver had some some sort of red flag to their analytical profile.
5:48And this is when I say analytical profile, I'm talking about their, you know, like age adjusted production.
5:53You know, the age that they are entering the NFL.
5:56Maybe you could throw size in there a little bit.
5:59That's not that big of a constraint for me.
6:02But it's basically their age adjusted production that I'm talking about their breakout score, you know, the main metric of wide receiver within the model.
6:10But you can also look at career yards per out run.
6:13You can look at, you know, their yak profiles.
6:16There's a lot of stuff you can look at.
6:18And I would say that, like, you know, we had an insane amount of day two picks day one and day two wide receiver picks.
6:26And the one common theme that we had talked about on the show was that there's going to be someone that emerges just by sheer volume.
6:34And by sheer volume, I mean the number of people and players that were drafted day one and day two.
6:40Because draft capital gives players opportunity. And it's also an embedded evaluation of the player.
6:44If the player gets drafted earlier, that means that there's some talent profile associated with him that either numbers may or may
6:51not see or whatever the case may be. I'm not trying to solve, like, the pure talent question with when I'm prospecting.
6:57I'm trying to solve who I think is going to be good in fantasy football, right?
7:02And so there are certain traits that might look better to someone watching these guys more closely than I am that the
7:09numbers are not going to pick up, whatever the case may be.
7:12But I know for a fact that the ZAP model is solving for fantasy football.
7:17And so what I think is going on right now is kind of exactly that, where we're getting a lot of steam
7:23from these, like, what seem like really random wide receivers.
7:26You know, obviously, the Zahn Striblings looked the part so far.
7:30I adjust my priors. I think he's looked great.
7:32And if I were drafting today, I certainly wouldn't have him at, like, wide receiver 8 to 10 like I had him,
7:39you know, after the draft was over. I would put him, you know, basically after, you know, definitely before, like, Omar Cooper.
7:45There's no way I'm drafting DeZahn Stribling after Omar Cooper at this point.
7:49And I know it's disappointing to people where they didn't draft him there.
7:53They missed out on him. You know, my rankings were basically at market with Stribling.
7:58I got him at times. I didn't get, you know, it's just like that's that was a mis-evaluation so far from like
8:04a from the standpoint of him gaining value. That's an L for me, right?
8:08We have no idea how good he's going to be.
8:11But and that's the thing. Like, I'm trying not to get too far ahead of myself and just assume that something's going to go in a certain direction.
8:20But that's also the point of all of this.
8:23And what I'm saying about overreacting to the preseason is that, like, we see certain things go down and we're like, well, that doesn't make that much sense.
8:31Chances are it's not going to actually happen. You know, like a lot of these guys get in steam, whether it's Caleb
8:38Douglas, Jacoby Lane, you know, DeZahn Stribling, Cyrus Allen, you know, these wide receivers that, like, had some parts of their profiles that were interesting.
8:45I'd argue Caleb Douglas didn't really have that many parts.
8:48Like with Stribling, there was the yak profile that that I really wish I would have leaned into more with the fit with Kyle Shanahan.
8:55Right. And then, you know, with with Osiris Allen, there's actually kind of an interesting breakout score for a guy going day three or with Jacoby Lane.
9:04He's an early declare and he, you know, he competed with some tough competition in college.
9:08So you can like kind of understand the Caleb Douglas thing is really tough for me to, like, wrap my head around and like truly, truly get.
9:16And we'll see what ends up happening with him in Miami.
9:20But regardless, like this is what we were going to see, in my opinion, with this class.
9:25And also, there's a really good point that that our buddy Jay Bolt's making in chat.
9:30We're like, we also didn't know that Ricky Pearsall was going to get hurt.
9:34Right. That that opening was going to be there for DeZahn Stribling.
9:37But regardless, like this is the way that's all fantasy football.
9:41That's the way that this all goes. And it's going to play out that way sometimes.
9:46But I really do think that it's important for us to lean into this idea that we're going to see some profiles
9:52that looked questionable just naturally emerge because we will see that anyway.
9:56Like, like that happens every year. It's just that we have so many of those players that we're going to probably just see that.
10:03And it doesn't help that Jordan Tyson's hurt. Well, I mean, I think we're going to talk about that in a second.
10:09And Cardinal Tate is playing on a team that, sorry, Kitchen, close your ears, has very questionable, you know, offensive play and potentially quarterback play.
10:17We'll see. McKay Lemon's been banged up. Casey Concepcion's looking the part, evidently, which I'm not shocked by.
10:22But obviously, he's in a bad offensive situation. Omar Cooper can't find the field.
10:27And he's apparently like the wide receiver four on the Jets right now.
10:30And then Denzel Boston's doing well. But again, he's in the same position that Casey Concepcion is.
10:36So like all of these things are coming together to just go into what I said, like this is going to be a hard rookie class to dissect.
10:44And so I think when we get that information, we should react.
10:47It's just my gosh, people are overreacting. Like I, I, I haven't had I have not been a part of it like this to this degree.
10:55And all the years that I've been, I've been doing this.
10:59So we'll see what happens. I still think you can throw darts at those guys.
11:03But don't, you know, try to try to be level headed about it.
11:07But you think now we'll talk a little bit later about the rookie YC receiver hype.
11:12But you think this is a real overreaction. Just imagine this week after week one of the regular season.
11:17When Stripling goes for, for with all the question marks 135 and two.
11:21Yeah, right. It's it's it's going to be wild.
11:24I think people should be drafting. I mean, he's been in the late round dart throw for a couple weeks now in the draft guide.
11:32Like, I think you should be drafting design Stripling, given where he goes in season long platforms.
11:37I don't think you should be paying the costs that it would take to acquire right now in Dynasty.
11:42Because I've seen him go for, I mean, like, I mean, I saw a trade go downward.
11:47Someone got a 2027 first for Stripling. And it's a good class next year.
11:52Evidently, I haven't like totally researched it up. But, you know, like Dynasty is a different beast.
11:57Redraft? Yeah, go for it. Like, get that, get that piece and see what happens.
12:01Okay. We have Tyson's Tendi hammy. This was just a big blow.
12:05And for someone who has been championing Jordan Tyson, obviously there was some concern last week.
12:10But he's going to be out for two months at least.
12:13And then we're not sure really what's going to happen after that.
12:16So your thoughts on Jordan Tyson right now? Look, I could rant about this too.
12:21And the way that people are reacting to this where, you know, the reaction was like, how could you possibly have been
12:28into Jordan Tyson when we knew that? Yeah. We knew the injury concerns were there.
12:32We're drafting him because we like the talent. And it was very evident based on what was going on there.
12:38Nick Underhill is one of not only the best Saints beat writer, but one of the best beat reporters in the country covering an NFL team.
12:46And he talked about that later in the season.
12:48This is before the injury happened. If Jordan Tyson was the best player on the Saints roster, like that's how that's how amazing he's been throughout camp.
12:57And so, yeah, you take a risk when you play fantasy football.
13:00No one in their right mind was just ignoring the injury concerns.
13:04It was the reason why if you go read the prospect guy, Jordan Tyson was in the same tier as Carnell Tate,
13:10you know, because there were injury concerns. Despite the fact that he looked a lot better analytically in my mind.
13:16So, yeah, I mean, like it's really a bummer.
13:19I think anyone who enjoys the game of football should not be like rooting for this kind of thing.
13:25Just being a human, you shouldn't be rooting for this kind of thing.
13:29But what it does is that, you know, Chris Alave, I was a little bit nervous about when it came to the
13:35volume that he might be able to see in this offense, because I thought him and Tyson really paired well together.
13:42I didn't think Alave was like a hard fade or anything like that, but I was getting a little concerned about, you know, him maintaining a 30 percent.
13:50No, I mean, like now I'm high on Chris Alave versus the market.
13:54This is a really big deal for him. You know, and then obviously we can just talk about Alvin Kamara right now since we're on the Saints.
14:02He's going to be out for a month with an MCL sprain and that obviously boosts Travis Travis H.
14:08And, you know, I think that he's now kind of a tier up based on this injury because there's nothing in his way from a receiving perspective.
14:16Quite as much, you know, it's not that I thought Kamara had a ton of standalone value.
14:21It's just that he could hurt Travis H in some way, you know, just just being a body there.
14:26I don't the thing is that like Kendra Miller or whomever is not nearly the kind of pass catcher that Kamara is.
14:33And so that helps Travis H in a lot be sort of like that bell cow in workhorse to to start the
14:40year and we'll see what ends up happening. But I'll bump him up because I think that winning September is very important in fantasy football.
14:47So, yeah, I mean, these injuries suck with Tyson.
14:50I would assume Devon Valle gets gets the biggest bump and at least from like a usability perspective.
14:55I'd throw a dart at Bryce Lance, too, if you want to in the in the final rounds where he was a he's an athletic freak.
15:03He had a really late breakout. I had my analytical concerns about his profile, but he definitely came through the last couple of years.
15:10Smaller school, but but just a freak athletically. So maybe that translates sometimes that does with those players and obviously Juwan Johnson,
15:17I think is just a smash where where he generally goes.
15:20I've been getting I mean, I was getting a lot of Juwan in general, but I think that he's, you know, arguably
15:27the number two target, probably their number two target.
15:29Now that the Jordan Tyson injury happens. Okay. Okay.
15:32Um, we have this a Mecca a boo boo right now happening.
15:36Not really sure what to make out of this toe injury.
15:39And that's kind of what's so frustrating is like he's going pretty high, um, in drafts.
15:44And we don't you know, we know his talent.
15:46But are you willing to spend such a high price with this question mark surrounding his toe right now?
15:52Yeah, I I've updated my rankings for the most part.
15:55I'm waiting on some news to drop just so that I can, you know, be finalized with stuff through today to then send out the updated rankings.
16:03But yeah, I mean, I moved a book down into the next year.
16:07Uh, I had him in a tier with, you know, Zay Flowers, Devante Smith.
16:11Like I was, I was pretty high on a Buka and what he could do here year two without Mike Evans.
16:18But now I moved him back into that tier with like Lad McConkie, T Higgins, you know, and like, it's a pretty big tier in my rankings.
16:26I even, I like I've Garrett Wilson in there, Ted Arone McMillan, Luther Burden at the very end of it.
16:32So, um, yeah, I mean, like, I think he's now in that tier just because, you know, again, like I, I'm not
16:38trying to like overstate what these injuries could do, but you know, turf toes can be annoying.
16:43And also, um, oh man, I just saw the news in the chat.
16:47I'm going to cry. Yeah. Is my, is my draft guide cursed?
16:51I'm actually, I'm actually looking this up right now.
16:53To see if it's real. Yeah. Rap reported it.
16:56Uh, Texans right receiver Jaden Higgins suffered a torn ACL yesterday.
16:59I might, I might cry. Guys, I can't even, I can't even explain how insane.
17:04This summer has been in the last three or four weeks have been with like guys in the draft guy getting hurt.
17:11Yeah. It's crazy. It's honestly like I, if I'm a player on in the draft guy listed as a target or dart throw, I'm scared right now.
17:19And I would not want to be on that list at this point.
17:23I think we just started year one of the, you know, the Madden curse just kind of gave their curse to the late round target curse.
17:30It's crazy. It's crazy. I just, you know, I, I'm, I think that I'm just going to have to have a magical,
17:37uh, magical 15 transaction seasons with this is going to come down to, you know, there you go.
17:42Uh, okay. Well, that, that's literally the, the, well, were we talking about a Mecca?
17:47Yeah. So a book, I just moved down. I think Chris Godwin gets, I mean, I've been drafting a lot of God.
17:53We've been talking about Godwin a lot on this show this summer.
17:57Um, I've been drafting a lot of Godwin. I think Jalen McMillan, who's coming back from injury now, uh, is an interesting
18:04player to, to, to, to look at later. And then, you know, if you want like a on the, on your radar
18:10kind of player, Ted Hurst is kind of interesting too, but I, I don't know if Hurst is going to get that
18:17much run because Ted Johnson's there too. Um, I, you know, I think they're going to slow play Hurst because he went to a smaller program.
18:25He's dominant physically. Uh, he can be, he got a Nico Collins comp in the, in the prospect guide this year.
18:31So there's definitely some upside there, but I think it's just more of like a second half of the year thing.
18:37If it, if it really does happen in a, and he does emerge.
18:41So right now it's more so bump up Godwin a little bit.
18:45I think he's just been a value for most of the season.
18:48He's actually a target in the draft guide too.
18:51Now I, I added him, I think last week.
18:54Um, and then Jalen McMillan has like a dark throw.
18:57If you want to kind of hedge a little bit with this, a book injury.
19:01Okay. Uh, you mentioned Nico. So let's talk about this Texans water, see a room because tank Dell also, but they don't
19:08know when he's going to be playing, you know, uh, he's on his own timeline.
19:12That's from his own head coach. Now Higgins is out.
19:15Noel was a guy who. No, I'll be clear.
19:18No, no. Yeah. No, well, well, I said that last year too.
19:21Yeah. It's the Christmas in me. Um, but he was a guy that was on the like NFI list, but now he's back.
19:28But like, what do you make out of this Texans water, see your room right now?
19:33I mean, Nico Collins got a nice boost with this from a fantasy perspective.
19:37Um, there's going to be a lot of, uh, just, just forced volume going his way.
19:42But yeah, I mean, this is a bump for tank Dell.
19:45This is a bump for Jalen Knoll. Unfortunately, they're going to use Xavier Hutchinson.
19:50Like that's going to be a thing. Uh, I, they love those Iowa state wideouts.
19:54Um, but yeah, I mean like Jalen Knoll to me is probably the most intriguing because he's super, super cheap.
20:00I liked his profile. He kind of was like Randall Cobby coming out a little bit smaller, but similar, uh, you know,
20:07ability to play out of the slot, get vertical, uh, do a little bit at the line of scrimmage as well.
20:13Uh, and I thought he showed us something last year.
20:16It wasn't like he had nothing to his profile.
20:19Um, I'm still really just depressed about this Jaden Higgins news for a lot of reasons.
20:23Like you hate it for a ascending second year player.
20:26Like that sucks, man. That's just for him. Like that sucks.
20:30And so, uh, but yeah, for the offense too, if you were a believer in Stroud kind of making a comeback this year, like.
20:37Yeah. Someone saying Noel's still out a few weeks with a hammy.
20:40Didn't he just return to practice yesterday out of nowhere?
20:43Yeah. Wasn't there a report? So, okay. Keep an eye on that.
20:47We can't look it up obviously in like real time like this, but, um, yeah, I mean like Xavier Hutchinson, they like
20:54him a lot, but this is just going to force tank Dell up the depth chart a little bit more.
21:00Um, and then Nico Collins will just end up getting fed and maybe we just see a little bit more of the
21:06cheap stuff to Dalton Schultz, uh, which is what we saw last year.
21:10He had those like random, I mean, Dalton Schultz is just like, he's it's, it's like any ex cowboy tight end or any cowboy.
21:17It's like that the Dalton Schultz and Jake Ferguson.
21:20It's just the most boring tight ends of all time, but you know, they can get it done.
21:25It does make this wider Seaver at the, we were kind of talking about it internally.
21:30The, um, you know, the top three spots, the top, I want to be as close to the number one spot as
21:37possible because of the two, three and the four or five turn.
21:40But you look at now these wider Seaver two injuries and Nico up.
21:44And then, uh, you also have, uh, Chris Alave up kind of towards like they're getting bumped with their, their volume perspective.
21:51So I don't know the reason why I like that, but I just checked, I've got 11% Higgins in best ball.
21:57Yeah. I'm going to, I'm going to check after I'm on live so that people don't, uh, see me cry actually visually on stream.
22:04He's right there beside Ricky Pierce. All my exposure.
22:07I mean, it is crazy. It is crazy. The wide receiver injuries that have happened.
22:12So, yeah, I mean, I think part of it.
22:14So here's one thing I've heard a lot of like people say that like running back, running backs do technically get hurt
22:21more than wide receivers across a large sample. Um, but it really hasn't been as dramatic as you think.
22:27It's not, it's not something that you should actually take into consideration in my opinion, when you're drafting, like you, you, the,
22:33the, the idea of it, of like the fragility of the, of the running back position.
22:38And you know what Sean Siegel wrote about in like zero RB, the zero RB work is that when a running back
22:44goes down, we know who the backup is generally that is going to get some work.
22:49Whereas we're talking about it right now with the Texans, like, yeah, Nico Collins gets bumped up a little bit.
22:55Okay. Well, Nico Collins also was already, you know, a two, three turn type player.
23:00Okay. Are we going to really rely on tank though?
23:03Are we going to really rely on, on Jalen Noel?
23:06Are we going to really rely on Xavier Hutchinson?
23:08Like what's that going to look like? Like, well, if it happens at running back, you know, and a guy goes down,
23:15you know, that you can generally get something out of whoever that, you know, JK Dobbins goes down, the Jonah Coleman's going to get a ton of work.
23:23And, uh, you know, and, and RJ Harvey's going to get more work.
23:27Whereas it's just, you know, it's just the way that, that it works at a wide receiver.
23:32So it's not so much that the injuries happen more frequently at running, especially the last couple of years, running backs haven't gotten hurt as much.
23:40And I think we're seeing it more in camp right now.
23:43Um, I think it's kind of probably somewhat of an outlier what's going on right now, but, um, you know, wide receivers
23:50are doing what they typically do in camp in terms of just their movement, right.
23:55And the routes that they're running and they're, you know, uh, like, like moving of their, their legs out of, you know,
24:01in and out of routes and stuff like that.
24:04Um, and in their breaks. So like that movement hasn't changed from what they're doing now to what they'll be doing when
24:10the games are playing, but at running back, it does change because they're getting smashed by defenders, which is just not what
24:17you're seeing right now in camp and stuff. So I would expect more running back injuries to happen, unfortunately in season.
24:23Um, but yeah, it's to me, I mean, it's just wild what's going on at wide receiver right now.
24:29All right. Uh, let's move on to the next one.
24:32I try to have wide receivers at the, at the top, you know, we've made it through five news items right now
24:39or 27 minutes into this show, but, uh, Mike Evans who last week was, or the week before was the cover boy for the show.
24:46So now he's dealing with an ankle injury, but really what they're looking at potentially is him re aggravating that quad injury.
24:53I saw a friend of the show, Jeff Miller Mueller talking about it, something to keep an eye on.
24:58And when it's like, when Jeff says, keep an eye on this, it's like red flags to me now, because it seems
25:05like past few guys, he said, keep an eye on it.
25:08She's like, okay, they ended up getting hurt for a while.
25:12So, yeah, I mean, it's, it's Mike Evans. Like we, we know this is, there's a risk.
25:17I think you're going to deal with this like throughout the season.
25:20If you don't want to deal with it, don't draft him.
25:24If you want the upside because he's your wide receiver three.
25:27Um, I think that's really, in my opinion, smart because I do think the upside is pretty crazy for Mike Evans.
25:33Um, like if you removed injury issues with Evans, he would be like, to me, like a three, four turn type player.
25:40If we didn't have any concern, like, I think it's already kind of embedded in his ADP, especially on some places.
25:46Like I think ESPN has a very, very low, like in the eighties or something like that.
25:51He's not one that we're talking about on today's show, but probably could have.
25:55So, yeah, I mean like, this is just the risk with Mike Evans.
25:59I lean into the risk. Um, but clearly leaning into this risk has ruined me over the last month.
26:05We still have like three weeks left to the season starts JJ.
26:08So like we can, we can call back some of that, uh, that CLV that, uh, is, is not feeding our families right now.
26:16Um, all right. High ankle sprain. Don't love that.
26:18Jeremiah love in inexplicable usage last week in a preseason week one game.
26:22Many are saying I am saying, uh, high ankle sprain sucks for him.
26:26Yeah. I mean, you're, I've seen a lot of the responses to this being like, you know, he's got time to heal and he's, you know, generational.
26:34So why would we move his ranking, you know, based on this?
26:38I actually think it's, it's important because there's a psychological component to this of the way that the coaches might be viewing this right.
26:45Where they're like, Oh, we don't want like first game.
26:48This happened. We have other running backs that are capable.
26:51Why would we just give Jeremiah love this bell cow workload when we have Tyler Algier sitting here?
26:56So I actually think it's a pretty big deal.
26:59I bumped them down into that same tier. I was talking about earlier with a Buka.
27:04I have Javante and Kyron over, uh, in a tier above now, uh, Jeremiah love.
27:08And so I, I, I would rather go that direction.
27:11I just think it's safer. And I think production wise, you're probably looking at similar outlooks for those players, just given their offensive environments.
27:19You know, it's just the way that it is.
27:21So it's unfortunate. Um, you know, I, I want to be in cause I really liked Jeremiah love as a talent.
27:27I think he looked amazing in the, uh, you know, the looks that we got of him, but I do worry that
27:34they're going to slow play this a little bit and there might be more of a buying opportunity later on, especially they were really tough schedule this year.
27:42And I know that he's sort of like their default third down back in a way.
27:47And that might use him in that, in that manner, uh, in the hurry up mode and all that kind of stuff.
27:54I'll show some data about that in a second, but I don't want to overstate what that can be for his fantasy production.
28:01I think he's fine. He's still an RB two for me.
28:04I just don't want to draft him in RB one range.
28:07Okay. Um, I mean, running backs do get hurt.
28:10Breece out two to three weeks with a groin strain.
28:13Most are saying he just doesn't need to play before week one.
28:17He'll be fine. Kind of in that same area that Luther burden is in.
28:21Yeah, I, uh, I, I, I'm drafting him mostly the same way that I was drafting him before.
28:26Um, I, it sounds like he should be good once the season starts.
28:30I thought that I think that, you know, I talked about this on the mailbag last week.
28:35I think he's been a pretty decent value. I haven't been the same tier, uh, uh, as the two guys that I
28:42just talked about Javante and Kyron, but I have them ahead of those guys still, because I think the three down potential is just better for Bree saw.
28:50And I think he's a better talent than those other two running backs.
28:54And there's less than I'm worried about in those in his back.
28:58But of course, situation's not as good, but I don't think the jets offensive line is that bad.
29:03So I'm still, still drafting Brees in the third.
29:06I think it's a decent pick. Same. Even if Brandon Godula is making fun of me, I think his exact quote was,
29:12of course, kitchen is drafting Brees Hall. Yeah. Like, well, I mean, on, and on draft Kings, Brees Hall falls to the mid fourth.
29:20That's where it's, that that's where you should definitely be drafting them.
29:23Yeah. Yes. All right. Um, we talked about Alvin Kamara, Kyle Monungay out with, uh, for a few weeks with a hyper extended knee.
29:30You know, this is another situation where we, we liked Kyle Monungay with where he was going and, and now this kind
29:37of, you know, it muddies up the waters a little bit.
29:40Yeah. I think that Monungay, uh, this injury allows Deandre Swift to be bumped up a little bit.
29:46Um, I think he's sort of like right after David Montgomery.
29:49Now I just feel better about Montgomery's workload in general.
29:52I think Swift is a decent value though. If you look at where he's being drafted across sites, he, he goes a
29:58little bit later than where I have them ranked.
30:01So, uh, this injury is helping that for sure to, for, for him to get off to a hotter start.
30:07Quinn Allen is liquidity. Actually, he's just hurt, but, uh, he has a soft tissue injury.
30:12This helps all roads, basial tootin. It also helps probably Chris Rodriguez.
30:16Yeah, man. I mean, like, I think that people are going to overstate what this means.
30:20The Laquan Allen injury where he's awesome in pass, bro.
30:23He's a great third down back. Uh, you'll see some data in a second on this in particular and why I don't
30:30think it's that big of a deal. Not only that they have Amir Abdullah, they might end up using Abdullah there, but
30:36I think if anything, they would use basial tootin.
30:39Uh, and, and he might get an extra point, point and a half, you know, in a game because of that role.
30:46But I, you know, Laquan Allen should be back eventually.
30:49And so I don't want to like make it completely change the way that I'm viewing tootin who, you know, I have tootin right now at RB 22.
30:57Um, you know, I, I would technically I have David Montgomery, Deandre Swift, Travis Achan ahead of them.
31:03I just think they're safer bets at this point with how things have kind of gone down.
31:08Uh, but I, I still like tootin like much more than consensus where he goes like RB 26.
31:13Uh, so I'm still in and this certainly doesn't hurt his cause.
31:17Okay. Uh, we have a chargers replay of the past few years.
31:20If you know, you know where their offensive line just gets decimated by injuries.
31:24Uh, their center, Tyler beyond the oddish. Oh yeah.
31:27Yeah. Be oddish. I actually looked it up. So it's like the, you know, it's the a H in the middle.
31:33That's yes. So be odd is out probably for the whole season.
31:37Yeah. I mean, it's not as bad as it's not as bad as like a Slater or all injury, but it's certainly not good.
31:44Uh, hopefully this is it for them. I'm not changing things too, too dramatically.
31:48I do think you can probably put Hampton in the bottom of that tier just because there's some volatility there, but there's so much upside still with him.
31:57In my opinion, I think I'm, I'm, I'm at the point though, in half PPR where I'm, I'm probably going a Chan and Henry over Hampton.
32:05You know, if this is like a tiebreaker, I actually, in my, my recent rankings update, I kind of separated that tier
32:11where I, cause I, I just, I know I officially like the Saquon Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker trio.
32:17You can put Gentie in there too, if you want, but I've just been high on Gentie throughout the off season.
32:23I like them more than that next trio that I just talked about, Derek Henry, Devon H and Amari and Hampton.
32:29So I just want to be clear in my rankings that I do.
32:33Um, but yeah, I mean like they're all really good round two picks in my opinion.
32:38Like I still think that they're fine. I mean the thing with H and the reason why he's been in a void
32:44in the, in the guys, cause he goes RB five on some platforms.
32:48I just think the late first round is too early for him.
32:52Okay. We have landing spots for Keenan and Najee.
32:55Did you update Najee right here or did, was that me?
32:58I did it. I updated, I updated those, those guys while you were talking in the intro, I updated Keenan Allen and Najee Harris.
33:05Well, I, we did, we usually do it on the show.
33:08Oh, it's like an unveiling. Yeah. It's like an unveiling.
33:11Sorry. I just, I just did it to make it, you know, it's okay.
33:15Um, all right. So we're just leaving out Tyreek who's probably, you know, just doesn't have any power in his leg, but
33:22Najee Harris assigning people had talked about possibly the giants being a landing spot and the Tyrone Tracy where he missed a block Jackson dark got blown up.
33:30I'm not sure if it's being blown out of proportion.
33:33It's one rep. It definitely is. But, but I don't think that I, okay.
33:38I should say, I don't think it's being blown out of proportion.
33:41It is from the standpoint, I would be pretty surprised if they cut him that because people are saying that I would
33:48be surprised if they go that, that route. Maybe I'm wrong.
33:51You know, that's something that no one really knows or has any insight to, but I do think that the Najee Harris
33:58thing in the signing is, uh, you know, uh, a sign that they just wanted a bulkier depth piece behind cam Scadaboo.
34:04And I'm not going to be surprised if they use Harris more than you think, you know, you as in a listener
34:11or a viewer, what have you, than what you think, just because he's a player that coaches like, um, that, that coaches
34:17seem to want to deploy despite superior talent being behind him on the depth chart, uh, as we saw in Pittsburgh for four years.
34:25So, uh, I'm not gonna be surprised if he gets some love and get some work eventually.
34:30But again, he's, he's kind of a, he's not aged per se, but he's coming off an Achilles.
34:35He's coming off a really tough injury to come back from.
34:38So I don't want to move things too, too much with Scott or with Scadaboo.
34:43And I did move Tracy down a decent bit, but in Scadaboo, maybe down a tier into like the Montgomery range now, but nothing like insane.
34:51Yeah. We're not even talking about vision issues for Najee, which is all we were talking about last year.
34:56That was bizarre. Brandon Godula said, uh, it's okay.
34:59Kitchen says dead inside that JJ already changed his cell colors.
35:02Yeah. Um, but yeah, someone in the chat posted earlier that if something happens to Scadaboo, that Najee is going to give us the most consistent 10 points.
35:11Oh, you're going to get the best 10 points per game.
35:14Yeah. Yeah. All right. Uh, Keenan Allen, this was one that we were expecting.
35:18This was your highest best ball draft pick. Yeah.
35:21It's embarrassing. I have, I have Keenan Allen on like, like 24% exposure or something across best ball drafts right now.
35:27Um, so yeah, I needed this to happen. I need him to sign somewhere.
35:31I said it on the show a couple of weeks ago.
35:35He's, he's been a really good target getter the last couple of years in environments where, I mean, he led the charters
35:41and target share last year in environments with pretty good weapons, a lot of McConkey, Quentin Johnston, uh, you know, Ronda Gadsden.
35:48Uh, and then in, uh, Chicago, he was competing with strong weapons as well.
35:52And so, um, yeah, I mean like I see Keenan Allen as a thorn, you know, for, uh, a Josh downs, let's
35:59say, but I still think downs is going to play in 12 personnel.
36:03Um, it's not going to be until 11 where they shift downs then inside more, you know, obviously they can, they can
36:09rotate things around, but I would still expect Josh downs route share to increase year over year because they still don't have
36:16like a true guy who can, that's fast enough to get down the field consistently.
36:20Cause that's not Keenan Allen's game. So I think it's a little bit of a hit to a downs to a Tyler
36:27Warren, but nothing significant because there was just kind of an opening in that offense in general.
36:32I think those guys can create their own and still get decent target shares.
36:36Okay. Uh, let's talk about craft reps. This is his exact quote taken from the locker room.
36:41They're going to take into account my rep range, possibly, uh, probably until halfway through the season.
36:46And then they're going to just pat me on the, you know what, and send me out there and send me to the wolves.
36:54Well, the nice part is Tucker craft has been probably the most efficient tight end in football over the last couple of years.
37:00And so even minimal work can do a lot for your fantasy squads.
37:04And then you add in the fact that they lost Romeo Dobbs, you know, they, they have a completely different offensive environment.
37:11You know, they lost Octavian Wicks. They have a totally different offensive environment this year where they might need to feature Tucker craft a little bit more.
37:19Um, I'm still drafting him. I've been drafting him.
37:22I think he's been undervalued for a lot of the summer.
37:25And, uh, I, you know, he's one of those like few game changing tight ends that's out there.
37:30I think you can take him as early as tight end five.
37:34I think I have him ranked at tight end five and I have throughout the summer.
37:39It's just that right after him, I would draft some other tight ends.
37:43You know, it's not like it's a, he's like clearly on his own there.
37:47Okay. Um, number 35, number one in your hearts, Darren Waller.
37:50You see that the, that's his new Jersey number is number 35.
37:54Yeah. It's the ugliest thing I've, I've seen since, uh, since Matthew golden last year wearing 22.
37:59Uh, so, uh, he's, he's landed there in, in Charlotte, uh, Carolina Panthers.
38:03So thoughts on Waller who says he still has more gas than the tank.
38:07Yeah. Um, look, it's a, it's an open tight end room.
38:10They certainly, you know, they lost Chris Brazel already.
38:13I could see him coming through with some random usable weeks from a best ball perspective, but he's not something that we're
38:19gonna have to worry about until, um, you know, we kind of see it.
38:24And I just don't think that Bryce young can support that many players too.
38:28Like we like, like Waller's going to be at best the number three option in that offense.
38:33And it's just hard to envision a scenario where he's like a consistently good weapon.
38:37You know, like when we saw him last year, it was in a, an offense that really didn't have anything outside of Jalen Waddle, you know?
38:45And so I just, I have a hard time envisioning Waller being like a true, you know, guy that you can, you
38:52can do much more than just stream, you know, every once in a while.
38:56All right. Let's talk about this Jags wide receiver rotation.
38:59You have Brian Thomas Jr. And basically being the third guy on the field.
39:03Um, and you have Travis Hunter basically when, when Brian Thomas Jr.
39:07Goes out, that's when Travis Hunter. Travis Hunter's playing the X in that offense.
39:11Um, and, and it's what I thought rich rebar's analysis was really good.
39:15I'm Brian Thomas on the avoids episode this week.
39:18So I would just go back and listen to that.
39:21Uh, I'm not really high or low on Brian Thomas just because there's a, a teardrop at wide receiver where he generally gets drafted.
39:28Um, you know, I'm around like the wider C he's in sort of like this tier with like, you know, DK Metcalf.
39:34Like, I think you can, you could argue Marvin Harrison Jr.
39:38Type players. I think I have Marv ahead of him, but, um, yeah, I mean, like, I'm not like super amped to have him in a managed league.
39:46Cause I think it's going to be a headache, but I think that he's a good best ball pick is my, my bottom line with Brian Thomas.
39:54Cause it's going to be a good offense. Okay.
39:57Um, we've got more rookie wide receiver hype. We talked about it last week, but Jacoby lane still continues to ascend up the, the draft boards.
40:05We have Casey conception. You mentioned it earlier. Uh, he talked this week about being the underneath guy, which would benefit him.
40:11Uh, you've got Dijon stripling who is some people like I saw Norris the other day saying he's not even where his ADP is risen.
40:19It's not high enough. Yeah. I mean, I, I, to be fair, I'm, I have, I bumped the stripling up even more
40:25in my rankings just based on what I'm seeing, you know, the injuries going on in San Francisco.
40:31Um, but I know Norris, you know, friend of the show is like even way more bullish than, than I, like, he's
40:37going to have the highest ranking of stripling probably in the industry.
40:41He's like in the thirties for him. That's his guy.
40:44And then Cyrus Allen is the, uh, is the other guy that's been just receiving a ton of hype of guys, late round guys.
40:51Any particular thoughts that you didn't share last week?
40:54Yeah. I mean, even earlier today when I was going through the little rant about the preseason, like I, I think they're all fine darts.
41:01As long as the cost is there, you guys can look at the rankings and kind of see if you think the cost benefits there.
41:09Usually these fantasy platforms don't catch up fast enough.
41:11So if you're drafting like in the next couple of days, you can probably still get all of those guys at a huge discount.
41:19And then last have Jonah Cole man. Uh, he was taken out a little bit early of the game and Sean Payton said, we've seen enough basically.
41:27Exactly. Yeah. I mean, I'm not good sign for Jonah Coleman.
41:30It's a good sign for my best ball bags is what it is.
41:34Uh, yeah. I mean, I think Jonah Coleman's really good.
41:37Um, I think that he's a threat to both RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins.
41:41I bumped down both Dobbins and Harvey in my rankings this week.
41:45Um, you know, I, I've, I've kind of toyed with the idea that Harvey's an interesting target in the middle rounds because
41:51he does check a lot of the boxes that we look for.
41:55I still think he's fine, but I, you know, he's certainly not somebody that I want to be like crazy overweight on.
42:01So I'm gonna have to do some guide updates and stuff and look into that a little bit more, but I mean,
42:08Coleman Coleman's been a, uh, a dart throw in the guide since it published in July.
42:13Like he's, he's kind of a late round fantasy football guy, if you will.
42:17Uh, you know, the prospect model liked him really good production profile.
42:21I just think he's a good player. Um, so hopefully that, that, uh, continues and he gets, he gets some work right away.
42:27I'm just glad that, um, you know, we're 40, we knew this was going to be a long show 45 minutes in,
42:34we got through all the notes and, uh, that this is going to be an episode speaking of the Broncos that doesn't
42:41feature Cortland Sutton or that's what you think. Or, or does it today's data.
42:45All right, let's get into the value of a third down back JJ.
42:49Yeah. So I'll do this pretty quickly. Cause obviously, you know, we're already 40 plus minutes in, but, uh, I looked and
42:55I queried and we have new data this year that you guys are going to get some really cool insights from myself and Gadula throughout the season.
43:03Um, because just because of our data source and what we're able to do now.
43:08Um, so I queried and I looked at, cause obviously we have this Laquan Allen injury, right?
43:13And I actually added Laquan Allen to this list.
43:16If you scroll all the way to the bottom, you can see it.
43:20But, um, this, I, I try to quantify what being a third down back means, right?
43:24And there's no simple way to really do this.
43:27Like there's no one way to say, Oh, you're the third down back.
43:31Here are all the snaps where the third down back is playing.
43:35But how I quantified it was, I looked at players who played, uh, when they played third down and five plus yards to go.
43:42Cause obviously if it's third and shorter, they might not be using their third down back.
43:47And then I looked at no huddle fantasy points within the final two minutes of games, excluding third downs.
43:52So again, no huddle being, you know, it's, it's towards the end of the half.
43:57They have their third down back in. It doesn't mean they always have their third down back.
44:02And that's just, it's again, it's impossible to really like quantify this super.
44:06Super precisely. But I do think this gives you an interesting idea of like how many points are scored by these third down back.
44:13So what I did was I simply calculated the number of third down fantasy points.
44:17These guys scored the number of no huddle, uh, snaps they had within the, or fantasy points they scored within the final
44:24two minutes of either half, which, you know, it's a very specific timeframe.
44:28So like not a lot of players do a lot in those, in the, that situation, aside from Devon, a Chan, he
44:34had almost 16 points last year in that timeframe.
44:37And then I added those together to say, this is the total number of points that the third down back scored.
44:43And then how many is that per game? So essentially you only have what?
44:48Seven guys, six guys, seven guys who scored two or more PPR points per game on third down or, you know, in,
44:54in this third down back role last year and their names that wouldn't surprise you.
44:59Christian McCaffrey, Devon HN, Ramondre Stevenson, because the past pro stuff, I've been talking about that this week.
45:04Kenneth Gainwell for the Steelers, Tyrone Tracy and Cam Scadaboo are both on there.
45:08Cause obviously the giants weren't that great. So, you know, there's certain scripts that helped them in the Tajay Spears, your guy,
45:15you know, out of, out of Tennessee playing that third down role.
45:18Right. And then you get other guys like Ty Johnson, justice Hill.
45:22They're all these players, RJ Harvey, Isaiah Davis, all these players are like the satellite third down backs.
45:27Right. So I put Laquint Allen at the very bottom.
45:30I stopped the per game numbers at one. So all these guys had one or more points per game in this third down back role.
45:38And like on these third down back snaps, Laquint Allen averaged 0.8 points per game last year, PPR on in this role,
45:45if you will, like in this environment, right? Obviously he got some work on first down, you know, with it, with not
45:51within the final two minutes in a, in a no huddle situation, but overall it's 0.8 points per game is what we're
45:58really arguing about for a player like Bayshall Tootin.
46:00And we don't even know if Tootin is going to get that work.
46:04So I don't want to overstate what all that means.
46:07That was really the reason why I dug into this.
46:10I just wanted to see what this really means from a quantitative standpoint for a player like Tootin.
46:16And it's not that big of a deal. Okay.
46:18Let's get into the main event and some ADP differences on different fantasy platforms.
46:23The late round main event. All right, let's start with Chase Brown, JJ.
46:26And we should also mention that these ADPs fluctuate and they change and it has been a huge thorn in the side.
46:33So before we get into Chase Brown, you want to preface this?
46:37Yeah. I mean, I want to say this too, that I think this is the final year for how we're doing the
46:43draft guide and the targets and avoid stuff because ADP has never been more different, if you will, across platforms and the way that people play basketball.
46:51And it's not just ADP being different. It's the perspective that people come when it comes to come with, when it comes to ADP.
46:58I'll get to that in a little bit. So this is just looking at overall ADP as well as positional ADP from
47:05CBS, ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo that I threw out there.
47:08Yahoo. Okay. I'll say it. I'll say it properly.
47:11Yeah. And so this is looking at where these guys are currently going on those platforms.
47:16And I kind of highlighted in red where there's some interesting ADP and spoiler alert.
47:20There's a lot of interesting stuff going on at ESPN in particular, but we'll, we'll talk through it.
47:25So the first one's Chase Brown where CBS, he's actually a one, two turn player, you know, Yahoo.
47:31He's at two Oh three, two Oh five on sleeper.
47:34And he's a top 10 running back on all those platforms.
47:37He's an RB eight for me at the one 12.
47:40I like him at the turn. So I'm right in line with CBS ESPN has him at the two 11 as the
47:47RB 12, which I think is just unbelievably undervalued.
47:49He had 20 points per game with Joe burrow last year, a 14% target share with burrow.
47:55There's a really stable environment. So if you're on ESPN, you can draft chase Brown.
47:59Honestly, if you're on any platform, you can, you can, based on my rankings, you can draft chase Brown, but definitely on ESPN, he's a huge target there.
48:07Okay. Next on the list, Trey McBride. Yeah. This one's really interesting because on ESPN, he goes as a two on the
48:14two Oh five, like he's the tight end to everywhere.
48:17Right. But he goes as the two Oh five on ESPN two Oh nine on sleeper two 12 on Yahoo.
48:23And then he's the three Oh three on CBS.
48:26I'm more in line with CBS. I'm actually lower than all these platforms in terms of overall rank with Trey McBride, because
48:32I'm worried about how he had 120 more routes than any other tight end last year.
48:37If, if you discount those routes and he just regresses to still being tied with the most routes run at tight end,
48:44he would have scored like three and a half, three to three and a half fewer PPR points per game last year than he actually scored.
48:51And then, you know, my, my question on here is what happens if Carson Beck starts playing down the stretch?
48:57That's also scary. They really tough schedule. Um, I just think that Trey McBride is, is overpriced in terms of the overall
49:04rank where he goes, the ESPN one, if you're taking him at two Oh five, that means you're like, there's no world
49:11where I would take Trey McBride over chase Brown.
49:13And he's going seven spots later than Trey McBride on ESPN.
49:17There's just no way that I would make that move.
49:20Especially with roster constructions, all the, the injury injury news that is taking place.
49:24Um, for sure. A lot of mouths to feed there in Arizona.
49:27Speaking of Arizona, Jeremiah love. Yeah. So all I put here as the, um, as a note would say, was me saying
49:34that I would imagine that is that the prices drop with Jeremiah love, uh, with his high ankle.
49:39So I have him as like a late third round into the fourth round pick.
49:44Now, uh, at RB 16, every platform is actually kind of in line with me as a third rounder as like RB 13, RB 15.
49:51And again, this is pre injury 80 people like, or at least the market hasn't totally caught up based on that.
49:58Cause it's only, you know, it's only a handful of days old, but ESPN, I know my clay is very into Jeremiah love.
50:04And I know that that's influencing the ADP over there.
50:07Um, I'm just in disagreement with how he's viewing him.
50:10He had an RB nine as a two Oh three in fantasy drafts just seems way too high for a player.
50:17That's likely going to be part of a committee in some way and a bad offense or more than likely not a good offense.
50:24I know that there's hype and there's, you know, um, there, there's a lot of, of intrigue with what this Arizona offense might look like this year.
50:32I'm still more bearish than bullish on them just based on the very basic fact that Jacoby Brissett is leading this offense
50:39and they have the toughest schedule in football and their implied team totals for the season are the lowest in the league.
50:45I mean, they're, they're not favored in a single game.
50:48It's really bad. Um, and so I'm, I'm, I'm a little bit fearful of what this Cardinals offense might do.
50:54It could be wrong. Cause there's definitely talent there, but, uh, I'm, I'm definitely not going to invest in one of these players in the early second round.
51:03Yeah. And if they go into tank mode, uh, as well and get Carson back out there, you just, you don't know what's, uh, what's about to happen.
51:11All right. JJ, the, um, no, the youths, youths, they talk about frame mogging.
51:15I don't know if you, you know, people know what that is, but it's like when you put someone out there and
51:22they're against someone who's bigger than they are. And I feel like this next guy is getting frame mogged with NFL highlights in camp and that, Oh, nevermind.
51:30That's the other guy. Yeah. Sorry. Sorry. I skipped one.
51:33I skipped one. I was like, I was like, where are you going with Kyron Williams?
51:38This is like a boring. Yeah. Corum, Corum would frame mog.
51:41Remember that segue, but we'll talk about Kyron. We'll talk about Kyron here first.
51:45Uh, ESPN has Kyron as an early fourth round pick as RB 17.
51:49He was 17th in rush chair from week seven to 17 last year, which is when Blake Corum started getting more work.
51:56He's 15th and expected fantasy points during that time.
51:59So I, I have him as the RB 15 right now.
52:02Like I, I, I'm not high. I'm not low.
52:05I'm just kind of right in line with ADP and Kyron.
52:08Um, you know, technically from an overall perspective, some of these platforms like him more than me, but I, I just like
52:14some of the wide receivers that go in that area.
52:17Um, but it's fine if you want to, you know, jump him into the mid to even early third round.
52:23I'm not going to hate that. I think it's just pretty late in the, in the fourth round to be drafting Kyron Williams, as we're seeing on ESPN.
52:32Okay. Uh, speaking of frame logging, like we were talking about, uh, rice.
52:36Yeah. I mean, yeah. Any, any clips for Rishi rice is like him and then comparing him to, to Cyrus Allen.
52:42Like, I mean, it's nothing good is coming out of camp right now.
52:46I don't know if people are just over, just overstating it.
52:49Yeah. I mean, look, I'm a little bit concerned from an injury perspective in that recovery.
52:54He hasn't really looked to the part in the clips that I've seen.
52:58Um, but I, and I also worry a little bit about how this offense might change with Kenneth Walker there.
53:04And if they do want to change things up, you know, my homes coming off the ACL.
53:09Um, but that being said, I don't want to get too carried away.
53:13Like he's been very, very good in fantasy when he's been active.
53:16I have my wide receiver 15. I could, I could rank him up just based on tears.
53:22I think up to like wide receiver 13 or so.
53:25Uh, he's at least in that tier with, uh, Devante Smith, Zay flowers.
53:28Those are the two guys that I have above Rasheed Rice that a lot of platforms don't.
53:34Um, and so it's fine if you want to go Rasheed Rice technically because of my tears.
53:39It's just kind of, I mean, CBS has my wide receiver nine ESPN has my wide receiver eight.
53:44So those platforms are a lot higher on rice.
53:47If you want to get rice exposure, I would go to sleeper or a Yahoo to, to get them at wide receiver 14.
53:54Okay. Okay. Let's talk about a guy who, you know, he just checks boxes, but no one really talks about him as
54:00an explosive guy because he gets frame mobbed by Jamar chase.
54:03It's he does 17.1 PPR points per game though.
54:06Once Joe burrow returned 2.29 yards per outrun problem is healing a 19% target here.
54:11So I do think that, you know, I think he's fine.
54:14Like he's a, he's a fine pick. I'm wide receiver 17, which is maybe like a slightly low compared to some, but
54:21I think it's mostly in the middle of all of these platforms where I, where I have T ESPN though has my
54:27wide receiver 21 is an early fifth round pick.
54:30Like that is that's stealing because there's contingent upside with this too.
54:33You know, like me, the ranking is not just a projection for T Higgins.
54:38It's the fact that if Jamar chase were to go down for any reason, you know, miss a game or miss whatever
54:44T Higgins is a wide receiver one in fantasy.
54:47So you can't discount that. And you shouldn't just be drafting off projections with a player like T.
54:52Okay. Next we have one of my favorites for this year, Garrett Wilson.
54:56Yeah. You know, he was in the draft guide as a player to avoid for a while because of the ESPN ranking,
55:03but I'm looking and I was looking at this.
55:05I'm like, wait a second. I'm like right in line with every platform with Garrett Wilson at wide receiver 21.
55:11That's where he is on Yahoo. That's where he is on sleeper for the most part in CBS.
55:17But ESPN has my wide receiver 13 as the 307.
55:20I could see it happening. Of course, like Garrett Wilson's a good player and maybe the offense surprises, but he's never had
55:26a season with a yards per out run above two.
55:29And, you know, I think that with the volume side of things, which has always been there for him, things are moving
55:36in his favor where you have Omar Cooper who hasn't made that, you know, jump into being a starter yet evidently.
55:42And Kenyon Sadiq's been banged up. So I think the volume should be there.
55:46He's moved up my rankings a little bit since the guide published.
55:50And now I'm at market with him. So he's going to be someone that I got to disregard basically.
55:56And like, I mean, it was a confidence level of one all summer in terms of being an avoidance.
56:01It's been like kind of a softer fade, but he's not a fade for me at all anymore.
56:07He's got the talent. That's for sure. It's just the environment that we need a little bit better for Jackson Dart cover boy for the Giants.
56:15He was fine after that. That hit. He was a little bit upset.
56:19He got taken to the medical tents, but wide range of outcomes right here.
56:23Yeah. I mean, look, so CBS has as six points per touchdown pass, which is what I think is driving this and why he's at QB 13 there.
56:31But he's at QB seven on ESPN as a sixth round pick way too early.
56:36In my opinion, I have my QB 10 as a mid eighth round pick.
56:40Now you'll see with the way that these overall picks are showing that clearly I devalue the quarterback position compared to ADP.
56:46And it's true. And it's because quarterbacks really deep.
56:49So I don't want to force the issue in around six or seven where opportunity cost is higher.
56:54So I have Jackson darted 806, but he's a QB 10.
56:58He had great market score comps. You know, tough to just completely remove that rushing floor because it's part of his game.
57:04Uh, so I, you know, I think he's a fine pick.
57:08I just wouldn't be drafting him at the overall ADP at some of these platforms.
57:12Certainly wouldn't be drafting him where ESPN has him.
57:15There is some injury concern that I have with dart this year.
57:18And here's the other thing too. Like this is not a dynasty take.
57:22I like in redraft. I'm very much just shoot for the moon with quarterback.
57:27And if it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out.
57:30It's not that big of a deal. Um, but in dynasty, I do think there's a little bit more volatility to, to darts profile.
57:37All right. Next on the list. We have Dallas Goddard from the Eagles.
57:41So CBS has him at Titan nine. And then sleeper has my tight end 15.
57:45So there's a pretty big gap. 15 seems a little bit low.
57:49So if you want some Goddard exposure, I would go over to sleeper.
57:53He's he was sixth and, and, uh, targets per route run last year when AJ Brown was not on the field.
57:59So keep that in mind. He was first in fantasy points per route run when AJ Brown was not on the field
58:05at point eight one, which is way better than any other tight end.
58:09So there is some intrigue here that maybe, you know, obviously that's not the, that's not a one-to-one things.
58:15They fill the gaps and things change and whatnot, but like, there's definitely upside with Goddard with, uh, with AJ Brown no longer in the picture.
58:23Yeah. Stowers not in the picture right now, at least to start the season.
58:27People thought at first he was going to cut into it just for that second round draft capital.
58:32Uh, Zay flowers next on the list. I'm at wide receiver 14 very early in the third, you know, like early to
58:39mid third, whereas other platforms have running backs clearly ahead of him.
58:43So again, that's just that giant tier I was talking about earlier where like, if you want to go Kyron over Zay
58:49fine, you know, if, if you're, if you're, your league, uh, says that you should based on your settings, but on sleeper,
58:56he's the wide receiver 19 going at four Oh five.
58:59I think that's a huge, huge value for Zay flowers absurd per route run efficiency last year.
59:04Uh, the Ravens had fewer than 25 past attempts per game.
59:07So they're going to regress. So I like Zay flowers a lot.
59:11If you're drafting him on sleeper at that wide receiver 19 price tag, Luther burden, a late round staple.
59:16And I do wonder how the injury is going to affect this as well.
59:21Look at sleeper at wide receiver 22 with burden, which is where I'm at with burden right now.
59:26Uh, but yeah, you look at like a, a CBS and ESPN, he's a sixth round pick, you know, like say what
59:33you want about all this Luther burden steam and such.
59:36When you look at what season long platforms are doing, he's a sixth round pick on half of the major season long platforms.
59:42So yeah, I'm going to call him out as a target.
59:46And when that's the case, um, he was second in yards per hour run week 11 to 17, which is a timeframe
59:52where, uh, he started playing more than 50% of their, they're running around on more than 50% of their dropbacks.
59:58Uh, but even if you include the playoffs, which is obviously tougher competition, he was still top 10 in targets and yards per route run among wide receivers.
60:07So, uh, I I'm, I'm obviously a Luther burden guy.
60:10I'd still be drafting him. I think he's more of a fourth round pick when he goes in the fifth on even
60:16the platforms that are more bullish on him. Uh, and then obviously if you're on ESPN, I would, if you can get
60:23Luther burden in the sixth round, that's awesome. Okay.
60:26Uh, Dalton Kincaid next. So I have Kincaid at tight end 10.
60:29I like them a lot, but sleeper and Yahoo both have met around that point too.
60:34It's CBS and ESPN where they're at tight end 15 and tight end 16.
60:38He was the leader in yards per hour run last year.
60:41He was one of seven tight ends to hit that high of a mark 2.79 and kit George Kittle did it three times.
60:48That's really very few tight ends. I've gotten to this point.
60:52He ranked outside though, the top 30 and route share.
60:55And so him coming off that PCL, you know, he's noted and they've noted that, um, you know, that, that hurt him last year.
61:02If he even like gets like a 10 to 15% bump in route share, he could easily be a tight end one this year.
61:09He's one of my favorite targets of tight end.
61:12Okay. And if you know, you know, it's, um, save the best for last.
61:16Yeah. And did on purpose. Yeah, of course you did.
61:19Uh, it's Mr. Cortland Sutton. This is what I'm talking about.
61:22Whenever I say that Cortland Sutton is overvalued is that on CBS wide receiver 32, early seventh round ESPN wide receiver 29,
61:29late sixth round sleeper wide receiver 36. We still wide receiver three in the seventh round.
61:34Yahoo actually likes him just as little as I do for the most part, right?
61:38He's a ninth round pick over there. Wide receiver 38.
61:41I have him in the eighth round as the wide receiver 41.
61:45Um, you know, I, I've said it on the show this week, sub 20%, uh, targets per out run rate last year.
61:51And that was with weaker competition, a 21% target share.
61:54He hasn't been elite since year two in the NFL.
61:57I just, I, I like Pat Bryant at his ADP a lot more than I like Cortland Sutton at his.
62:03And then Jalen Waddle, I think could be a studly, studly player in this offense this year.
62:08So I've been fading Cortland Sutton into managed league.
62:11It's a little bit different in best ball. Um, but you can see the prices here as to why, like, I just,
62:18I can't get behind spending a top 30 wide receiver pick on Cortland Sutton.
62:22Yeah. I've been fading him in a best ball as well.
62:25So, uh, yeah, I mean, I don't have a, I don't have a heavy bag of Cortland Sutton in best ball.
62:31Yeah. If the ship goes down, uh, you know, we're going down.
62:35I'm going down with it. JJ. All right. Uh, good stuff.
62:38Let's wrap this up. Okay. All those rankings that JJ just talked about, they are available for members on the website, late run.com.
62:45You can become, um, there's different membership tiers, explore insider.
62:48And then of course, the new all access, they get you access to the draft guide.
62:53And speaking of the draft guide, we have rankings in there as well.
62:57And we have updates coming updates, usually on Friday mornings.
63:00Um, and there will be plenty of them. Which is why, uh, we were in kind of no huddle mode today because
63:06of all the, the items that we have after this show, we're going to have a stream.
63:12JJ, are you still okay to do it? Because like your voice is kind of going out.
63:17I mean, I can hop in. It's fine. It's fine.
63:20I, uh, that's just, you know, just the way this is, this is the grind of, of, of, I know.
63:26And you, you're on, you're a guest on a lot of different shows and I got another, and I'm recording perspectives later today for Friday.
63:33Uh, so I'll be, I'll be talking a lot.
63:36Honey. Oh, honey. Like literally honey. You need, probably need that for, but I'll do, I'll do.
63:41Yes. I'm going to do the live stream draft right now.
63:44Uh, after I probably use the restroom before doing it.
63:47Okay. Uh, and then again, shout out to our sponsors, draft Kings promo code late round.
63:52And, um, again, they had the draft one, get one promotion.
63:55They've got other promotions as far as, uh, getting tickets to the DFS side.
63:59Week one, they've already got salaries out for week one.
64:02So you can do that as well. So, uh, if you haven't though drafted a best ball team yet, and we'll just
64:09get in there and do it, do a slow draft and, um, you know, just use that as your mock draft tools.
64:16All right. JJ, anything else? Nope. I'm ready to do this draft.
64:19So stick around guys. Cause I will be live soon.
64:22All right. I appreciate you all. And, uh, yeah.
64:25Like subscribe, leave a comment. We love you. We'll see you next week in the late round fancy football show sponsored by draft Kings.
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