0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Guaranteed Human.
0:03And share your say for the weekend, smiley-checked social escapable.
0:06fall fans on the SUNFуется. As a fantasy football analyst, you can't be afraid to be wrong.
0:12and you can't be afraid to change your opinion when new information is presented.
0:17I think that goes for anything in life. We have some belief, we get more information about that belief, and then hopefully
0:24with that new information, our belief changes. I'm sure you've been to a restaurant before, you said it was the best meal
0:31of your life, and then you went back there and you didn't have quite as good of a meal.
0:38Or you went to another restaurant and you realized, no wait, that was the best meal of my life.
0:44We should adjust our priors when new information is presented.
0:47We can't be afraid of being wrong in this game.
0:51It's dynamic, it's filled with variance. We need to accept the fact that our predictions won't always come to fruition.
0:57When you accept that as a fantasy football manager, as a fantasy analyst, whatever the case may be, I guarantee you'll become a better player.
1:06And that's sort of what this episode is about each offseason.
1:09Back in May, I produced my first set of redraft rankings.
1:13My work isn't close to being done. I still have a ton of research to do.
1:18I still want to watch these players play. I want to read certain beat writer reports.
1:23Those rankings are almost vibes based. But by the time mid to late August hits, I'm feeling a lot better about where players are ranked.
1:32So on today's episode, I want to talk about players who have risen and fallen in my rankings.
1:38And more importantly, why? This is me basically saying, hey, back in May and early June, I was wrong about this guy.
1:45I actually view him differently now. And that's going to happen.
1:49Sometimes it's really frustrating when it happens. Sometimes you make a trade, you make a rookie draft selection or something that you regret.
1:56But you don't want to double down on a bad take when new information arises.
2:01That's what this episode is all about. Now before we get into things, I just wanted to send another reminder to check out the Late Round Draft Guide.
2:11There's over 270 pages of content that includes game theory, strategy, ways to spot breakouts and busts, players to target, players to avoid, and more.
2:19You get cheat sheets with a guide, and that guide is now being updated twice a week.
2:25You get a Wednesday update where rankings are changed up, and then a Friday update where those rankings are updated again, but
2:32so are the targets, avoids, and dart throws lists.
2:35You can learn more about it over on lateroound.com.
2:38Let's start today's show with probably the biggest riser for me this offseason, and that's Dajon Stribling.
2:44He's been crushing it in camp. He's been crushing it in the preseason.
2:48He has good length. He's a good athlete. He certainly looked the part thus far.
2:53Now, I most definitely had my concerns with Stribling from a prospecting standpoint.
2:57As you know, the way I prospect is through looking at trends.
3:01Finding what's worked in the past has actually helped us tremendously in figuring out what's going to happen in the future.
3:08Now, of course, prospecting isn't easy to do. There's a lot of volatility to it.
3:13Even NFL teams get stuff embarrassingly wrong every single year, and they're not doing this from mom's basement like I am.
3:20I look back at the prospect profile for Stribling, and there were some serious red flags.
3:25He had a 31st percentile breakout score, which is really low for an early day two pick.
3:31His career yards per hour run rate in college ranked in the 20th percentile.
3:36I mean, I could go on and on here, but there was nothing production-wise that made Stribling really, really stand out.
3:43The one piece where I do wish I was a little bit more thoughtful about back in April, back in May, was his yak profile.
3:51He was above average in yards after the catch numbers, and avoided tackles per reception.
3:56And that's the kind of profile that Kyle Shanahan and his system looks for.
4:01We saw that in a player like Brandon Ayuk, and obviously Debo Samuel.
4:05But Stribling undoubtedly needs to be an outlier analytically to really hit.
4:09Now, I understand the draft capital argument, trust me.
4:12I've been a draft capital bro for years now, pushing against people who don't factor it into their process.
4:18So let's factor it in here. Let's look at all top 100 picks.
4:23So this includes first-round players too. All top 100 picks who had a breakout score below 40, which is about the 50th percentile.
4:30So a breakout score below 40, and a career yards per outrun rate below 2 yards.
4:36And we'll look back to 2018 when this data is most reliable.
4:40For the record, Stribling is well below both those marks.
4:43That leaves us with 20 players, and hilariously, 5 of those players are from this year's draft class.
4:49You had Jacoby Lane, Antonio Williams, Caleb Douglas, Stribling, and Zavian Thomas.
4:53The remaining 15 players are as follows. Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, Miles Boykin, Terry McLaurin, Van Jefferson, Amari Rogers, Valus Jones, Michael
5:00Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Leggett, Jalen Polk, Ricky Pearsall, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams, and Jack Besch.
5:06It's also very funny that Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, and Ricky Pearsall were all drafted by Kyle Shanahan's 49ers.
5:12But look, it's a pretty brutal list. And I do think it's relevant.
5:16Breakout score is just as predictive as draft capital for top 100 wide receivers in terms of how well these wideouts are
5:24going to perform during the first three years of their NFL careers in fantasy football.
5:29And career yards per out run is not a nothing burger.
5:32This is why Stribling was the wide receiver 10 for me post-draft.
5:36Right ahead of him were wide receivers Denzel Boston, Jeremy Bernard, Antonio Williams, and Chris Bell.
5:41Behind him were Zachariah Branch and Jacoby Lane. Now when those rankings were done, we had no idea that Ricky Pearsall was
5:49going to be out for the 2026 season. Had I known that, clearly he'd be ranked higher.
5:54But the wild part is that my Stribling ranking was either the same as the market according to sites like DLF, and
6:02it was ahead of the market according to data of real drafts that were happening post-draft and through June according to Dynasty Data Lab.
6:10I only say that because it's wild, because it's clear that the Zapp model did not love Stribling.
6:16The market was just way out on this guy.
6:19And that's why this is going to be so interesting.
6:22For me, I'm fine with adjusting with all this new information, while obviously trying to not get too carried away.
6:29But I said it before and I'll say it again.
6:32This year's wide receiver draft class had a lot of guys with good draft capital, but the profiles were generally lacking across the board, in my opinion.
6:41I liked the big four. Tyson, Tate, Lemon, Concepcion.
6:44And there were serious red flags with all the wide receivers after that.
6:48If I were to rank Stribling today, I would have no problem leaning into this outlier case and putting him after Casey Concepcion.
6:56So ahead of Denzel Boston, ahead of Omar Cooper.
6:59Because I didn't think their profiles were undeniable. The thing is though, in redraft, Stribling is still way too undervalued on most platforms.
7:07People care far too much about a player's floor when they're in round 8, round 9 of their draft.
7:13Go for the ceiling. Go for the outliers. And I think Stribling belongs comfortably as a top 50 wide receiver at this point.
7:21I'm about 10 to 15 wide receiver spots ahead of where he goes on these major platforms.
7:26Now in Dynasty, the investment's different. I wouldn't be going out there and getting Stribling for a 2027 first.
7:33This is still a volatile situation. And keep in mind, a lot of these players in this 49ers offense, they're not playing in the preseason.
7:41But there's no doubt, I've gotten more information, I've internalized that information, and I'm now moving forward with a new way of looking at Dajon Stribling.
7:50Because I think that's what a good analyst should do.
7:53We should probably talk about more of those rookie wide receivers since we're on the topic.
7:58I have Jacoby Lane, Caleb Douglas, and Cyrus Allen as risers as well.
8:02I really want to reinforce this idea of just not caring about a player's floor when you reach the late rounds.
8:09And in my opinion, that sort of flip should happen far earlier in drafts than it typically does for people.
8:16I have plenty of concerns about all of these players.
8:19Jacoby Lane was an early declares, so his collegiate numbers need that context.
8:24He didn't play that additional year. With that being said, his breakout score was more average in the 44th percentile.
8:30He had some below average marks across the board.
8:33One area where he did look good though is career first downs per route run.
8:38He was reliable in college. And I think that catch radius is a reason for that.
8:44And we're already seeing that on display in camp videos.
8:47I do think that Lane is going to have a hard time seeing tons and tons of volume in this Ravens offense,
8:54depending on what happens to Rashad Bateman. Because there's some off the field stuff going on with him.
9:00And look, Lane's one of the most acrobatic players in this year's class.
9:05I'm not super surprised that he's looked good in camp.
9:08But I do think he brings a red zone element that this offense could definitely use.
9:13It looks like he's definitely the one that you want versus Elijah Surratt.
9:18Now, Caleb Douglas legitimately was one of the worst day two prospects that the ZAP model had ever seen.
9:24You could squint and kind of get there with dribbling.
9:27But Douglas had a 25th percentile breakout score, a 28th percentile career yards per route run, and a 23rd percentile first downs per route run.
9:36Now with Douglas, I'm definitely worried about his long-term viability.
9:39But I do think that he can be a deep threat for an offense in the NFL.
9:45He had an 81st percentile deep ball rate in college.
9:48And Malik Willis, he has the arm to get him the ball.
9:52And this is the thing. Given the competition there, he could just be force-fed more looks underneath and may not just be used down the field.
10:01I'm still nervous about Douglas and Dynasty. I think it's fine to react to camp reports though and just see what we
10:08have in Douglas from a redraft perspective. Now I've said this on the late round show, but I think Cyrus Allen has
10:15kind of an intriguing enough profile for a day three wide receiver.
10:19I didn't get to do a prospect profile for him because he didn't get a combine invite, but I did rank him in my top 48 post-draft.
10:28He had a 42nd percentile breakout score, which is not that bad for a day three pick.
10:34And he had an 88th percentile career deep ball rate, playing both inside and out.
10:39I think the Chiefs could, in a hypothetical world, use Cyrus Allen all over the field.
10:44And they need something more than what their wide receivers have given them.
10:48So I'm in on Allen as a late round dart throw.
10:52Let's look at a father now, and that's Alec Pierce.
10:55I was starting to get intrigued by Pierce after the Colts did nothing with their wide receiver room this offseason.
11:02But then he just couldn't find the field. He has this ankle injury that's just not going away.
11:08It sounds like things are finally moving in the right direction, but there's still a lot of uncertainty there.
11:14And I think that's a big deal. To me, it's a huge reason they went out and they got Keenan Allen, who's
11:22been someone that's taken a decent target share in his last two stops.
11:26He was by far the number one wide receiver in the Chargers last year in targets per route run at 26%.
11:33Ladd McConkie was at 19%. Quinton Johnson, 17%. And then in Chicago the year before, his targets per route run rate was 25%.
11:41DJ Moore, 23%. Roma Dunze, 18%. This isn't to say that Allen's going to be the best fantasy option for the Colts.
11:48My assumption, he's going to play fewer snaps than both Pierce and Josh Downs.
11:53But Pierce was already fighting somewhat of an uphill battle when it comes to target share.
11:58We just haven't seen him be a high-end volume earner dating back to college.
12:03His highest target share in college was 22%. That's a 29th percentile number among the guys in the ZAP model database.
12:10His highest in the NFL is just 18%. Now, I do think that Pierce has gotten a lot better as a player since he's been in the NFL.
12:19I was actually drafting him earlier this offseason, but his injury combined with this signing, I'm scared off right now if I'm just being totally honest.
12:27A player kind of going in the opposite direction of Pierce from an injury perspective is Malik Nabors.
12:33Not much really has to be said here. A healthy Malik Nabors is a player who has a shot to be one
12:41of the best wide receivers in fantasy football. Since 2016, his rookie season ranked first in targets per route run rate, 10th
12:48in yards per route run rate, and 10th in fantasy points per route run.
12:53That's among 89 wide receivers with 300 or more routes run.
12:56There's a ton of upside, even coming off of this injury.
13:00And I was obviously baking that into my early summer rankings.
13:04The injury had him pushed down. Now that it's looking better for him in the early parts of the season, he's risen.
13:11Though I'm still not at the point where I'm taking him by where that big round two group of running backs goes.
13:18I'd still rather go in that direction. I've got a pair of later round tight ends who are fallers.
13:25The first one's a Rondé Gadsden. I've mentioned before that MarketScore doesn't mind Gadsden at all.
13:30MarketScore generally likes him because it's working off of previous season data.
13:34And as a rookie, Gadsden was kind of incredible.
13:37We're talking like a top 15 rookie season production-wise from a tight end ever.
13:42The issue with Gadsden is that we've got a new offensive coordinator in LA.
13:46And anytime there's a coaching change, new traits are going to be rewarded.
13:51Gadsden's more of that tweener tight end and we're already seeing that not play into his benefit.
13:56David Njoku and Charlie Kolar are playing ahead of him in the preseason.
14:01Like flat out, it just seems like they want Gadsden to improve as a blocker.
14:06Tight end's a tough position to play because the position does so much.
14:10They're not just out there running routes and catching the ball.
14:14And that means there's more developmental time needed for Rondé Gadsden.
14:17Meanwhile, Eli Stowers. It's never a good sign when there's negative reporting with a player out of camp.
14:23Stowers had a pretty unique journey in college. He played quarterback and then he eventually settled in at tight end for Vandy.
14:31And his production profile is actually strong. We're talking 90th percentile breakout score, a career yards per out run rate in the 94th percentile.
14:38He's an older prospect, but as a crazy athlete, there was a lot to like out of his profile.
14:45Now, the Zapp model did like Kenyon Sadiq quite a bit more, like a full tier ahead.
14:50But Stowers appeared to be a pretty decent prospect.
14:53It just seems like this might be a 2027 thing versus a 2026 one.
14:58It's probably not unlike what we're seeing with Gadsden to a degree.
15:02That's good for Dallas Goddard, but right now in your season-long drafts, you don't need to worry about Eli Stowers.
15:09An obvious riser for me is Jonathan Brooks, though I was pretty high on him back in May and June anyway.
15:16It's just this Chuba Hubbard injury has allowed him to elevate a little bit more, as has the fact that Brooks himself hasn't gotten hurt.
15:24I had an anti-Chuba stance last year because I don't like spending up for running backs who are just projected to see
15:31a lot of volume when I don't necessarily think they're special talents or when they haven't proved that for multiple seasons.
15:38Hubbard's never really been an efficient pass catcher either, so it made that fade decision even easier.
15:44Now, I'm not really in the same boat this year with Hubbard because he's cheaper than where he was last year.
15:51And to be honest with you guys, in best ball specifically, because this is not happening in season long, but in best
15:58ball specifically, the gap between Brooks and Chuba Hubbard is kind of wild.
16:03It's been nice to get some Hubbard exposure. But I do like Brooks more than Hubbard.
16:08He's risen up my rankings. I think he's the superior pass catcher, and there's a lot of upside as a runner.
16:15We can't forget that he was a good prospect.
16:18According to the Zapp model, he was just out of the elite producer category with a score of 70.5.
16:24He had a best season pro-rated reception share in the 54th percentile, which is good enough, but his adjusted receiving yards per
16:32team pass attempt was in the 83rd percentile. So both receiving metrics were pretty good.
16:37Meanwhile, his adjusted total yards per team play was in the 89th.
16:41And PFF, they pegged him as a 94th percentile player and avoided tackles per attempt.
16:46I mean, he was pretty legit across the board.
16:49There's obvious risk here, though. There's just plenty of upside, and that's exactly what you want out of your RB3 or your RB4 in your drafts.
16:57Travion Henderson has fallen for me for all the reasons I've been saying on the show over the last month.
17:04There just isn't enough steam coming out of that camp to make me believe this backfield is going to be tremendously different year over year.
17:12And look, I like Henderson a lot. This is the archetype of back that I usually want to invest in.
17:19But this type of player doesn't always have a good running back next to him in the backfield.
17:25And that's the problem. Among qualified backs, Ramondre Stevenson was first in rushing yards over expected per rush last year.
17:31He was also first in catch rate over expected.
17:34Now that was weighed by the fact that he was really good down the stretch last year.
17:40He started iffier, but he finished strong. He dominated snaps, and he dominated touches in the playoffs.
17:46And he's the guy who they trust in pass pro right now.
17:50I don't think that's nothing. New England ran the fewest percentage of their offensive plays last year while trailing.
17:56Their schedule this year should be tougher. Even if they're a good team, they're probably going to trail in more games.
18:03Stevenson played over twice as many snaps as Henderson last year in that environment when they were both healthy.
18:09I think there's maybe some chance that Henderson starts to dig into that workload as the season goes on.
18:16But I don't even know if that's a lock.
18:19So the more I've thought about this situation, the more I've read about this situation, I'm way more in on Ramondre Stevenson this year than Travion Henderson.
18:28And you want to talk about changing your views with more information?
18:32I was the opposite of this last year. I'm just trying to be logical and give the best advice that I can give.
18:39Sometimes that means admitting that old advice wasn't the best.
18:43I'm in on Parker Washington and yes, he has risen in my rankings this summer for two reasons.
18:49Number one, there's a lot of chatter out of Jacksonville that Washington won't be rotated quite as much as the other wide receivers there.
18:57I mean, I don't blame them. Once they started using him more post-bye, post-Travis Hunter injury, Washington was far and away the team's most effective wide receiver.
19:06We're talking over two and a half yards per route run, a 24% targets per route run rate, 0.53 PPR points per route run, all easily team highs.
19:15And that coincided with the Jags essentially being a top three offense in football through the end of the year.
19:21We've seen slot players thrive in Liam Cohen's offense, but Washington can do more than that.
19:27He had a 3.17 yards per route run rate outside the slot down the stretch last year.
19:32That's bonkers. Now, that was on just 115 routes, so our sample size is clearly limited.
19:38A lot of this has some sample size problem, but Washington is oozing with upside.
19:43So I'm in on him, and I think he's still undervalued on most of the fantasy platforms.
19:48I started the offseason leaning towards Rashad White pretty heavily in that commander's backfield, but it seems clear that the commanders are
19:56trying to make Ja'Cory Krosky merit a thing. They want to use him more as a pass catcher, or at least give him more of those opportunities.
20:05That's probably the biggest story of that backfield coming out of camp.
20:09Now, to be totally clear, I'm still skeptical that we're going to see that come to fruition.
20:14Bill was an older prospect, and despite that, he still only hit an 8% max season reception share in college.
20:21His age and program-adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt figure in the ZAP model placed him in the 21st percentile.
20:28And obviously, last year, he only had a 25% route share that ranked outside the top 60 at the position.
20:35Obviously, Rashad White's game is the pass catching stuff.
20:38Despite not being the guy in his backfield last year, he was top 20 in route share at running back.
20:44Now, one thing I'm really excited about for Bill is the fact that we're probably going to see the Commanders under center a lot more this year.
20:53No team has run more plays out of shotgun at a higher rate over the last two years than the Washington Commanders.
21:01And look, this is a limited sample. We're talking about 53 rushes.
21:05But on 53 rushes when his quarterback was under center last year, Bill ranked first in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt.
21:13He was top 10 in first downs per rush.
21:16I've gotten to the point where I'm kind of just in on both of these guys.
21:21Even after the Tunsil injury. I can see a path for both of these guys being fantasy relevant and it is an ambiguous backfield.
21:29One that we probably want to target. So don't sleep on either Bill Krosky, Merritt, or Rashad White.
21:35Sticking with the Commanders theme, I want to close today's show by talking about Stefan Diggs.
21:40I genuinely think that Stefan Diggs is one of the most undervalued players in all of fantasy football right now.
21:47To me, there's not really any signs that he's just complete dust.
21:51Maybe he's not peak Stefan Diggs, but I don't see a player who's dust.
21:55Diggs averaged 12.3 PPR points per game last year.
21:58He was basically fine at cost. He wasn't a league winner, but he didn't sink you.
22:04With that being said, among wide receivers with 100 or more routes, Diggs was top 10 in yards per route run.
22:11He saw a 90th percentile targets per route run mark.
22:14The problem was that he just didn't get a good route share.
22:18He had a 71% route share, which aligned close to Troy Franklin and Sterling Shepard.
22:23He can play inside out. He was actually good outside last year.
22:27He was 9th in targets per route run outside the slot.
22:31He was 8th in yards per route run. This isn't just a he's seeing great slot matchups thing.
22:37He also pairs super well with Terry McLaurin, who himself, despite his age, is coming off his best per route run season of his career.
22:45So Diggs has risen a ton since May because we now know that he's a commander.
22:50And I love the fit. I think there's a ton of potential for him in this offense and in fantasy football.
22:57Now there were a couple of other situations I almost talked through on this show, like seeing Terrence Ferguson, Pat Bryant, and Dontavian Wicks as risers.
23:06But hopefully this gives you guys an idea of where my head was at and where it's at right now.
23:13As always, you can get my thoughts not just on this podcast, but through the draft guide and through the website as well.
23:20I'm super active on Discord all the time with subscribers.
23:24That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
23:28If you have subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
23:37And if you follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
23:41Thanks for listening everyone. Becoming a Best Ball Bro, that'll be out on Wednesday morning.
23:46We'll be live with the Late Round Show on our YouTube channel, youtube.com slash at LateRoundFF.
23:51That'll be at noon on Wednesday and then it will drop in this feed on Thursday and then later in the week we got a mailbag episode.
24:00Lots of content and even more content is coming soon once the season starts.
24:05Thanks for listening though guys. I'll catch you tomorrow.
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