Late-Round Perspectives: Chris Harris Returns
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 11 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 21, 2026
Published
Fri, August 21, 2026
36
Player insights
31
Players mentioned
Topics
Brian Thomas Jr.Chris GodwinChris RodriguezJa'Marr ChaseParker WashingtonAudric EstimeBijan RobinsonChase BrownChristian McCaffreyChristine MichaelDanny WoodheadDavid BellDe'Von AchaneDerrick Henry
Player analysis
Player insights
Audric Estime
NegativeBust30:21
Chris Harris identifies Audric Estimé as his 'poster child' for overrated running backs due to an over-reliance on combine speed. Harris notes poor rookie tape, specifically citing a lack of vision, inability to break around the edge, and slow acceleration, making him a risky second-round pick.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
PositiveUsage41:51
JJ Zachariason notes that while Bijan Robinson has never exceeded 70% of his team's carries in a season, he remains a 'smash' pick because he is a great player; Zachariason emphasizes that fantasy managers should prioritize talent over the inevitability of time-sharing.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeUsage60:07
Chris Harris expresses a strong preference for Parker Washington over Brian Thomas, arguing that Thomas struggled with the complexity of the offense, looked uncoordinated on interior routes, and was eventually relegated to a 'sacrificial X' role.
Insight pageNegativeBust63:00
Brian Thomas Jr. is viewed as a player to avoid in managed leagues due to the likelihood of inconsistent, headache-inducing production. While he remains a viable target for best ball formats due to his potential for big-play spiked weeks, he is considered less reliable than Parker Washington.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue30:55
JJ Zachariason and Chris Harris both express a preference for Chase Brown as a player in a great situation, ranking him as a more stable option than Audric Estimé in the second round.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue20:13
JJ Zachariason prefers targeting Chris Godwin in the sixth, seventh, or eighth rounds rather than chasing speculative running back depth chart changes like Chris Rodriguez.
Insight pagePositiveValue32:35
Chris Harris considers Chris Godwin an 'awesome' and 'really good player' and prefers targeting him in the middle rounds (6th-8th) rather than chasing speculative running back depth chart changes.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
PositiveValue20:20
JJ Zachariason advises against chasing speculative running back depth chart moves like Chris Rodriguez in the mid-rounds, preferring to target wide receivers instead.
Insight pageNegativeDepth Chart33:43
Chris Harris expresses skepticism regarding the value of drafting speculative running backs like Chris Rodriguez, preferring to invest in established wide receivers like Chris Godwin in the middle rounds.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeRole3:48
Chris Harris notes that his 2011 novel 'Slotback Rhapsody' featured an undersized running back character inspired by Danny Woodhead, which JJ Zachariason suggests served as a precursor to the modern archetype exemplified by Christian McCaffrey.
Insight pageChristine Michael
NegativeBust35:56
JJ Zachariason uses Christian Michael as a case study for why athletic measurables (like 40-yard dash) without a strong production profile are misleading and often lead to market inflation.
Insight pageDanny Woodhead
NegativeRole3:53
Chris Harris identifies Danny Woodhead during his Patriots tenure as the primary inspiration for the undersized running back protagonist in his 2011 novel, 'Slotback Rhapsody'.
Insight pageDavid Bell
NegativeValue36:46
JJ Zachariason notes that he liked David Bell as a prospect because of his strong production profile, even though he didn't have elite athletic measurables.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveValue31:16
JJ Zachariason ranks De'Von Achane above Audric Estimé due to the stability of his situation and proven NFL production.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveValue31:16
JJ Zachariason ranks Derrick Henry above Audric Estimé, citing the stability of his situation and proven track record.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveProjection30:53
Chris Harris ranks Drake London as a 'rock solid wide receiver one' (around WR7 in his rankings), though he warns that the current league-wide defensive shell schemes can result in occasional low-yardage games.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
NegativeProjection32:26
Chris Harris notes the extreme flatness of the wide receiver position, stating he cannot guarantee that George Pickens will significantly outperform Chris Godwin, as the difference between WR8 and WR18 is often negligible in the current landscape.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveValue22:00
JJ Zachariason argues that drafters should be reactive to value; if Ja'Marr Chase is available in the second round, he should be taken regardless of a pre-planned 'Zero RB' strategy.
Insight pagePositiveValue28:27
Chris Harris ranks Ja'Marr Chase as his number six overall player in standard, non-PPR formats, noting that he is an 'unbelievable player' who warrants a first-round selection if the top-tier running backs are unavailable.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeProjection37:07
JJ Zachariason notes that Jadarian Price had the fewest college touches of any first-round running back since 2000, which introduces volatility into his profile, though he is boosted by a strong teammate score.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveValue41:29
JJ Zachariason identifies Jahmyr Gibbs as a 'smash' pick in the top two rounds of drafts, noting that his elite talent justifies his high draft position despite the inherent volatility of the position.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeValue22:54
JJ Zachariason uses Javonte Williams as an example of a player one might be tempted to draft in the second round if strictly adhering to a pre-planned 'RB-RB' strategy, potentially at the expense of better talent like Ja'Marr Chase.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveUsage65:00
Jalen Warren is considered a fringe top-10 talent at running back. His efficiency is backed by elite data: he ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per route run among relevant backs since entering the league and is top-10 in yards per carry among those with 400+ attempts. His pass-protection skills further secure his role, making him a preferred choice over Rico Dowdle.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveDepth Chart37:48
JJ Zachariason explains that Jadarian Price's prospect model score is significantly boosted by his teammate, Jeremiah Love, assuming Love receives high draft capital.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
PositiveProjection37:18
JJ Zachariason notes that Josh Jacobs had one of the lowest collegiate workloads among first-round running backs but has successfully overcome that to have a very good NFL career.
Insight pageLuther Burden
NegativeRole54:26
JJ Zachariason highlights that Luther Burden's skill set, particularly his short-area quickness and yards-after-catch ability, fits well into a Ben Johnson-style offensive scheme, though he notes Burden is not yet the route runner that Amon-Ra St. Brown is.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
PositiveProjection69:00
Matthew Stafford is projected as a top-five quarterback for the upcoming season, a bold take that bucks current regression trends.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveProjection30:44
Chris Harris views Nico Collins as a 'terrific player' and a 'rock solid wide receiver one,' placing him in his top 12 wide receivers, though he cautions that the current NFL defensive environment can lead to low-output weeks.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout47:23
Parker Washington is strongly preferred over Brian Thomas Jr. due to his impressive mid-season emergence last year, where he excelled in the interior role originally slated for Thomas. Washington demonstrates a unique archetype, blending running back-like build with vertical playmaking ability, drawing comparisons to Jaxon Smith-Njigba's early career usage. He is expected to be a more reliable fantasy asset in an offense that has historically fed slot receivers.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout59:46
Chris Harris advocates for Parker Washington, noting that he successfully took over interior receiving duties mid-year after Brian Thomas struggled, and argues that Washington's proven production makes him a better fantasy asset.
Insight pageRaheem Mostert
PositiveValue30:13
Chris Harris cites Raheem Mostert as the prime example of why fantasy analysts should not overrate 40-yard dash times, as Mostert has succeeded despite not being a combine darling.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveUsage57:16
Chris Harris and JJ Zachariason agree that Rhamondre Stevenson is the more reliable option in the New England backfield, particularly in negative game scripts, due to his superior pass protection skills compared to TreVeyon Henderson.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveBreakout52:46
Chris Harris expresses a strong preference for Rome Odunze over Luther Burden, citing his impressive film, suddenness for his size, and dismissing previous concerns about his foot injury as 'nonsense.'
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveValue31:05
JJ Zachariason highlights Saquon Barkley as a proven talent in the second round who is a safer bet than speculative options like Audric Estimé.
Insight pageTevin Coleman
NegativeBust32:00
Chris Harris uses Tevin Coleman as a historical comparison for Audric Estimé, noting that Coleman had great athletic measurables but failed to translate them into NFL success due to poor vision.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
NegativeUsage56:18
Chris Harris warns that TreVeyon Henderson is being overrated in the fourth round because he remains a 'work in progress' in pass protection, which will likely lead to inconsistent weekly usage and frustration for fantasy managers.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:00Chris Harris is the owner of Harris Football who hosts the popular Harris Football Podcast.
1:04Prior to Harris Football, he spent over eight years at ESPN.
1:07He's a film-based analyst, a novelist. He's got a new book called Pound Foolish out on September 1st.
1:13These are his late-round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by DraftKings.
1:16We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball, and we've got a can't-miss offer on their biggest best ball contest ever.
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1:27Draft your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week, all season long.
1:32Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
1:36Enter a lineup in the $20 million best ball contest for $25, and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
1:43Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
1:46The crown is yours. How's it going with this new book?
1:50You're gonna have to ask me in like two weeks, because it's not out yet, but people are pre-ordering.
1:55And, you know, I would love to say, oh, the response has been amazing, but nobody has it.
2:01You have it, but you know, it's a busy time of year.
2:04Tell me about the book, what it's about, what inspired you to write it.
2:09I mean, you've done other novels and such in the past, other books.
2:13Like, what was it that made you go? Is this your first football, like football focused one too?
2:18Second. Second. Yeah. My first novel is called Slotback Rhapsody.
2:21It was like 2011. Okay. And actually, so that's about an undersized running back who tries to make it in the NFL.
2:28And... Is it, was it, was it a precursor to Christian McCaffrey?
2:31Is that what the... No, you know, it, it was Danny Woodhead in his Patriots days.
2:36Right. There you go. Okay. It was, it was more like, that was who I had in mind is it takes place
2:43in Detroit, but it was Danny Woodhead was who I had in mind.
2:47And, um, so then you're right. I wrote a bunch of other books and came back to football as a subject matter for this one.
2:54And it's a sequel. The same character from the first one is one of the main characters in this one.
3:00Gotcha. This one's a lot more ambitious and has a lot of other characters in it and is about the season in a life.
3:08And the team happens to have somebody who might be a serial killer who's murdering women on the team.
3:13Oh. And so, uh, so the character from Slotback no longer plays, he's retired and they bring him in to like investigate
3:20the things that they cannot be seen investigating themselves internally.
3:23Like, see if you can figure this out. They like ask him.
3:27Yeah. So he infiltrates the team and then we meet many of the team members and there's a lot of fun game action and stuff.
3:34And, uh, yeah, it's what inspired me to write it, I guess was my own feelings of moral compromise about being a
3:41barnacle on the side of professional football. Yeah. Do you ever feel that way?
3:45Yeah. I feel that way all the time. Yeah.
3:48I mean, it's a, there's definitely like a grossness to what we do, you know, for, for a living.
3:54That, that I think that like, it's only human to feel that way.
3:57I think it's important though, to like talk about that on shows sometimes and, and, and remind people that we feel that way for sure.
4:05You know, like it's very easy for, you know, what we're doing to essentially just minimize what these athletes are going through
4:12and doing on a football field for our entertainment, you know, and, and treating them as like, they're not people sometimes in
4:18the way that we analyze fantasy football. Yeah. And so, yeah, I mean, I feel that way all the time, all the time.
4:25Plus just there's that aspect of it, the sacrifice, the churn of human flesh, you know, human flesh.
4:31There's that side of it. Right. And there's the compromises that they have to go through to get, put themselves through it.
4:37Right. The bad behavior that that can sometimes then result in that we then wind up either excusing or waving away and certainly the leagues waves away.
4:46And then to me, my way of thinking worst of all is kind of the too big to fail nature of the
4:52billionaires and the business and Roger Goodell and the whole bread and circus and nonsense as though they're smart, as though they've
4:59done anything other than literally just accidentally find the, the goose that lays the golden eggs or be the lucky sperm club of such a person.
5:07And then that somehow because they're billionaires and own these teams grants them some sort of claim to intellect or savvy or anything, anything.
5:14And then they get to hold communities hostage. The bears are going through this right now where yeah, give us public money
5:21that we don't need, but we can ask for it.
5:24We can hold a gun to your head. So we're just going to do it.
5:28Like, yeah, it's all pretty nauseating in some ways.
5:31And people who get turned off of the NFL, I have plenty of friends.
5:35I have a really close friend who's been in my fantasy leagues for more than a decade.
5:40This year he quit and he didn't, he loved the camaraderie of fantasy.
5:44We all do. It's my favorite part of it.
5:47Loved it. Right. He just didn't want to watch football anymore.
5:50Yeah. I mean, yeah, there's definitely, there's definitely that angle to it.
5:54And so, yeah, I mean, I think it's important to like, have that out there that, you know, we're, we're, we're self-aware
6:01enough to understand that this can be gross sometimes as we get, you know, into the show and we're going to be
6:07talking about, oh, this guy's bad at this thing.
6:10And like, you know, it's like that, that too, you know, but JJ, that's almost the point though.
6:15Like I still love it. Right. I'm not telling you, I don't love it.
6:20I'm not telling you that you watching and listening shouldn't love it.
6:23Please continue to love it. It helps me and JJ a lot if you continue to love it.
6:29So all I'm trying to say is it's complicated and people, people going, la, la, la, la, la.
6:34I don't think that's really living in the real world.
6:37And anyway, why did I write the book is to try to sort of tap into some of those feelings.
6:43So the book is definitely not all like bludgeoning people saying bad NFL, bad NFL.
6:48But it's just, it's just sort of trying to say it's very complicated.
6:52And there's a lot of stuff that goes on that is very weird and not awesome, but then some stuff that's totally awesome and incredible.
6:59And how many common spaces do we have left in America?
7:03I know. I know that that's the thing too.
7:05Like there's so much good. Yeah. There's so much good that comes out of this game too, that can't be dismissed.
7:12I mean, even, even the players themselves get like, you know, their own stories where they're able to, to find something that
7:18they're able to make the amount of money they're making doing it.
7:22And they're, you know, obviously becoming something that they could only dream of becoming.
7:26And they're, you know, like, that's what I love about the NFL draft.
7:30Most is, is just the story and like seeing people achieving their goals in real time.
7:35Like to me, that's amazing. Right. And then I'm sitting there and I'm writing up the prospect profiles being like, oh yeah,
7:42this guy's, you know, breakout score was. Yeah. Right.
7:44But yeah, that like, that's the dichotomy. Like that's the, you know, the, the back and forth that I think any healthy
7:51fantasy analyst is probably, you know, going through and thinking about, but again, like it's good to at least voice that and
7:58you get to put it out there and, and, you know, metaphorically and such in a, in a book the way that you're doing.
8:05Yeah. I'm really proud of it. I hope people, if you're interested in reading fiction, I hope you give you, give it a shot.
8:12If you have ever listened to anything I do, I did the audio book also.
8:17You can pre-order it all. Go to Harris football.
8:19There are links. I'm doing a tour. I mean, this is the first reading tour I've ever done.
8:25Uh, yeah, that sounds like fun though. Kind of be a good time.
8:29Right? Yes. Because mostly it's just an excuse to do meetups and I've done a lot.
8:34I've done a ton of meetups with, with fans of my show.
8:37And, um, they're so fun. People are so nice.
8:40My God. It's just what, like what a hardship to walk into a room where everybody likes what you do.
8:46You know, it's, it's so, woe is me. It's so hard, but these are towns I've never done meetups in.
8:52So Sunday is Seattle. It's actually Tacoma, but Seattle area.
8:55Uh, Monday is Portland. Tuesday is Vegas. Wednesday is Phoenix.
8:58Wow. So four cities, four days, a lot of travel.
9:01And I'm going to make a podcast in the morning from the hotel at each, at each site.
9:07Are you? Yeah. I was going to ask. Yeah.
9:09You did the almanac this year. I know you started, it was the last year you started doing it again.
9:15Like you took a little bit of a break with it and then, but like, I mean, that's a lot of writing in general.
9:23Like you, like you clearly, I mean, you're very, you're a very great writer and, but like that obviously is just a part of you.
9:30But I know for me, like I do the draft guide, right.
9:34And it's, you know, a lot of words and a lot of like, my brain's just completely fried.
9:39So I imagine that you're completely fried right now after doing both the almanac and you know, the book stuff.
9:45I'm okay. I mean, this book's been done for a while.
9:49Cause you, it takes a long time to put it together, you know, like I didn't have a cover in April, but
9:55like the book was done in April. Right. I've been, I've been writing another book.
10:00But yeah, I mean, the almanac is a big, is a big, uh, summit to climb.
10:05I mean, you do a guide. So like, you know, it's, it's all, it's pretty all consuming.
10:10I essentially, you know, I'm writing a profile for 230, 240 players.
10:14There's no way to do it unless like every day I just make myself write five.
10:18Mm hmm. And so like, I'll go, I'll go do something else.
10:22Usually go to the coffee shop and work on writing fiction.
10:25And then I'll go to the gym and then the afternoon it's like, well, I got to write five profiles.
10:31And the good thing about that is like, I'm loopy at that point.
10:35And so I'm mostly just trying to make a joke each, you know, like a lot of those, but you, you get a copy every year.
10:43I've read it. Yeah. Like, you know, I hope there's good football stuff in there, but I'm also just trying to make people laugh.
10:50So hopefully. Yeah, of course. Yeah. All right. Let's get into some of these, uh, some of these topics.
10:56Sure. I always like talking to you about fantasy and about football in general, because, you know, we approach things from a different angle.
11:03But I've said this before, even when you were on perspectives last time, it's like people will put you in a box
11:10of like, what kind of analyst you are without real.
11:13You know, like I did a show with you like a week and a half ago where we talked about film only.
11:20Yeah. You know, like it was just, we're just talking about guys that we like watching and, you know, going through that.
11:26And it's not, and I mean, I've seen in the, in the almanac, like you're doing little research stuff, uh, within there.
11:33That's, that's data driven. Absolutely. Yep. But I, but I do appreciate how you are very, very willing to just say, this is what I believe.
11:41And I'm not saying you're a moron if you don't believe it, but I'm telling you that I believe this thing.
11:47Right. And so I want to start this off by asking you, what's something that you think about valuating fantasy football players
11:54that you think the rest of the fantasy industry, whether analysts or just players, you know, managers just kind of get fundamentally wrong.
12:01The one thing I'm right and everybody else is wrong.
12:04That's, that's a long list JJ. Um, no, I mean, you know, it feels like it changed a little bit this year
12:11only because last year running backs had their moment.
12:13Mm-hmm . And wide receivers got hurt, but it does feel like this year things tilted a little more towards understanding where
12:20there's real scarcity and yet still not enough. Mm-hmm .
12:23And to my way of thinking, it's just a numbers game.
12:26I don't feel like people fully understand anybody who like I I'm in the middle of doing a Reddit AMA right now,
12:33taking a little break to do this show, which is, you know, very, thank you for having me.
12:38I'm really, really excited to be here. Of course.
12:41And, you know, people are like, okay, so I have the two pick and I'm going to go chase and, and then
12:48I'm going to go and I'm thinking to myself, don't do that.
12:51Yeah. Who's telling you to do that? You don't have to do that.
12:55Take a running back. What are you doing? Just from a pure like replacement value over replacement level, there's just no substitute for running back.
13:03Mm-hmm . And we've lived through the era of zero RB.
13:06It feels like that's maybe going away a little bit, but now it's been replaced by hero RB, which is that even a thing?
13:14Hero RB? Isn't that what people who like RBs always said?
13:17Make sure you get one? I don't know. But anyway.
13:20Right. Yeah. I guess the place where I've always kind of put my stake has been, I'm agnostic.
13:25I don't care. I just want to find the places where there's the best value over the guys I can get as replacements.
13:32And for as long as I've been doing it, it's been running backs.
13:36And it feels like depending on what happened last year, the market keeps vacillating back and forth.
13:41And I just don't vacillate. Yeah. I think that that's a really important point is like all the research that I've done
13:48for the draft guide each year, because the draft guides like very much game theory, you know, focused and such before I
13:55get into like player takes and, you know, guys, I've been targeting all that kind of stuff.
14:00The one thing that's been consistent through every single draft guide is that if you have an elite running back, you have
14:06the best advantage, the greatest advantage in fantasy football period, right?
14:10Like if you have that player and you got to spend money to make money, like you gotta, you gotta pay up to get these guys generally.
14:18You know, if you're going to acquire one of those players and if you don't, like it's just gonna be very, very
14:25difficult to have the game breaking, the most important players, you know, in fantasy.
14:29I do think that the current NFL meta, I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on this, but like the current NFL
14:36meta and the way that, you know, we're seeing a little bit more heavy personnel.
14:40And that's obviously led to, you know, run heavier offenses than, than what we've at least seen over the last like five, 10 years.
14:47I mean, last year we had the lowest pass rate since at least like 2011.
14:52So it's, it's, it was a lot less pass heavy than, than other seasons.
14:56And I think that, you know, the response to that from some people was like, Oh, I have to draft running backs really, really early now.
15:04Uh, which is true. I'm, I think that you should be drafting running backs early, but to the, to the, the, the
15:11counter to that would be, I mean, you do rankings every week.
15:14I mean, last year when I would rank wide receivers, I'm like, okay, there's eight guys that are good that I, that
15:21I know can be, you know, difference making type players.
15:24And then once I get to that, like next tier, it's just the same dude until like wide receiver 30, right?
15:30Like it's the same cluster. So yeah. And so that's the hardest part for me this season is balancing.
15:36Cause like, there are those like game changing wide receivers that in this meta, right.
15:41Where you have more 12, 13 personnel and there's fewer, uh, you know, there, there's fewer wide receivers in the field, but
15:47then those wide receivers also get hyper targeted a little bit more because the alternative is, okay, we're going to throw to
15:54this rant, you know, AJ Barner or whoever, you know, some, some random tight end that is fine, but very replacement level.
16:01And then you kind of get like, I think, I mean, Jackson Smith and jig was awesome.
16:06Don't get me wrong. Like he's a phenomenal wide receiver, but I do think schematically it helps that they ran the offense
16:12the way they did because it force fed some of those looks his way.
16:17And so, you know, I'm curious how you feel about like those elite wide receivers that we can pinpoint, but you know,
16:23on the flip side, we could sit here and say, we thought that about Justin Jefferson last year and look how that ended up, you know?
16:31So, so I get that argument too, but where are you at with, with that in general?
16:36You know, the biggest piece of advice, if I can always reduce it to a bumper sticker as draft players, not positions.
16:43And, you know, I, again, this Reddit is, is on my mind and people are like, okay, so what do you think
16:50about two, two running backs in the first three?
16:52Three rounds. And I go, Oh my God, it depends on the running backs.
16:57I can't, you know? And so somebody else said, Hey, I know you say always take a running back in the first round.
17:03Like, no, I don't. I have Jamar Chase in a standard league with no PPR as my number six player, which means
17:10if my first five running backs are gone, am I taking Jamar Chase number six?
17:15You're damn right. I am because he is an unbelievable player.
17:18And one of the, like you said, one of the, whether you want to call it nine or maybe four, this year,
17:25I don't know how many there are a hundred percent like fine.
17:28Yes. I'm not, you know, receiver. Isn't quite the scarce commodity that running back is, but it's the second most scarce.
17:35And if I can get the best guy, absolutely.
17:37I'm going to adjust. I'm going to deal with it.
17:40What you're saying is very well said the thing about 13 personnel and 12 personnel.
17:45And let's face it three wide is still the base formation of the NFL.
17:49It is. Yeah. You'll still see a lot. So we still see an unbelievable churn of receivers in any given game, like six or seven.
17:57We didn't live. We, you and I did not grow up in a world where seven receivers on a given team were running routes in a game.
18:05Right. We would have, our heads would have exploded.
18:08How are we supposed to play fantasy with this nonsense?
18:11Where you're telling me, you know, some random schmo is fifth.
18:14If Efton Chisholm has a chance to catch three passes in a week and ruin my day.
18:19You know, the reason that wide receiver is so flat beyond what we hope are the elite guys, I might argue three
18:26or four elite guys, is because of that churn.
18:28And because three wide is still the base formation.
18:31But yeah, when you have three wide and then you're not throwing out a three wide more, which is definitely true, trying
18:38to, trying to stretch a defense out and run that creates even more flatness because I mean, Nico Collins, I love Nico Collins.
18:45I think he's a terrific player. He's in my top 12.
18:48I view as, as a rock solid wide receiver, one Drake London, rock solid wide receiver, one in my ranks, number seven or something in my ranks.
18:56Love them. I'm going to draft these guys and know that because of the way these teams call plays and the way
19:03defenses are creating hard shells at umbrellas. We're, we're back to Legion of Boom 10 years ago, 15 years ago.
19:09I'm going to get weeks out of Drake London and Nico Collins where they do two for 17.
19:14Yeah, I just am. Yeah. And yeah, that's something that just has to be built in because there's very few receivers for
19:21that, for whom that is not the case because it is such a rotational three wide league with absolutely you're right.
19:27I 100% agree that the trends also are, you're also going to get some more plays where, where all the receivers sit and the guys are running around.
19:36So they're not going to get the ball and they're simply going to run more.
19:40It just creates this incredible flatness at wide receiver.
19:43That makes me think I'd say it all the time.
19:46Like I can't swear to you that like George Pickens is going to have a lot more fantasy points than Chris Godwin.
19:53I mean, I, I really can't. Chris Godwin's awesome.
19:56He's a really good player. He could wind up wide receiver eight and Pickens could wide receiver eight 18 and neither one
20:02gets hurt because the difference between eight and 18 is like 50 yards and two touchdowns because it's so freaking flat.
20:09So I, I certainly in draft strategies and very open to taking those elite wide receivers.
20:13If the running backs, I don't want to take are gone, but I feel best firing shots at Chris Godwin and his
20:20like in the six, seventh, eighth, as opposed to going, well, maybe Chris Rodriguez takes over that job.
20:26You know, I, I feel like I got a much better shot at hitting with the wide receivers.
20:31Yeah. I always, I always kind of like, again, going back to like some of the draft guide stuff, I would say
20:38that like, if the normal fantasy manager slash the way that ADP generally falls is a zero to a hundred where like,
20:44you know, one year it's zero in the next year, everything kind of flips and people just kind of overcorrect and overreact
20:51to what happened that previous season, which we know happens all the time.
20:55Yeah. I try to just stay in that like 30 to 70 range, you know, in the way that like, I'm trying
21:02to strategy and fantasy football is, has become, and I'm look, I come from literally like, that's how I started doing all
21:08of this was like doing a lot of the strategy game theory work and stuff.
21:13But it's almost gotten to the point where people are way too strict with it and going into their drafts.
21:19And they say, I'm going to go zero RB.
21:22I'm going to go. The reason you should understand strategy is to know how to react when things are going down in your draft.
21:29Right. It's no different than like strategy in war or something.
21:32Right. Like we're like, oh, we're expecting this, but we don't know if there's going to, but I'm smart enough to know.
21:39Cause I've been researching this and I've been thinking about this so much that when this thing happens, I can react to this.
21:46And then therefore I can put together a really solid, you know, it's similar to like just understanding where tier breaks are
21:52or where like there's drop-offs that occur and who's available and who's unavailable.
21:56And so like, it's almost, it's, it's weird because I feel I, this is not the position I would, would have taken
22:0310 years ago because 10 years ago was very much a people walking into drafts and just being like, I'm just going
22:10to pick whoever's at the top of my board and not really think about roster construction and like what I can get later.
22:17And now it's just this like really, really harsh way of attacking drafts when it just feels a little wrong.
22:23Like, like you can win with many, many different draft strategies.
22:26And I would argue that a lot of different, like there, there are better draft strategies than others, obviously, but you do have to be reactive.
22:34Like if you're sitting in, you know, round two and only running backs have been drafted and Jamar Chase is sitting there,
22:40but you're like, you know, I'm still running back.
22:43Like, it's like, it's like, no, but I went into this drafting.
22:47I was going to go RB, RB, I've got to go RB, RB.
22:51So I'm going to pass on Jamar Chase here instead of drafting.
22:54I don't know, like a Javante Williams or something like that.
22:58Like, I don't know. I just think there's been like this, like overthinking of, of the strategy side at this point, instead
23:04of really focusing on like why we're talking about strategy in the first place.
23:09A hundred percent. I mean, not to keep flattering ourselves with comparisons, but it's like chess, you know, people memorize openings and
23:15they'll memorize pretty far into openings and they'll, you know, this is what I do.
23:20This is what I do. And then the moment you don't do the book move, they go, oh crap.
23:26You were supposed to move the night. And now that you didn't move the night, I don't know what the line is, you know?
23:33And then they, they don't have a deep understanding of the actual position.
23:37They just knew what they memorized in the opening.
23:39Someone say that's the equivalent of a Mike Tomlin defense, right?
23:43Where it's the same thing every week and it works for against some teams, but then some teams know how to beat it.
23:50And he's just like, oh, I don't know how to adjust.
23:53That's what we do. Right. I do want to ask you too, because obviously you come from a film perspective with a
24:00lot of your work and I appreciate that kind of stuff when I'm a listener, because it's just the stuff that I
24:06don't need to listen to other data people necessarily, because I feel comfortable with like the conclusions I'm coming to and like what I'm looking at and whatnot.
24:15But I always love hearing, you know, other perspectives with, with film and such.
24:19But I am curious to put you on the spot a little bit.
24:23What's something that the analytics side of fantasy football has sort of convinced you of over the years that you may not
24:30have uncovered, you know, or thought otherwise as you're doing the work that you're doing?
24:34Oh, I mean, I love the conversations, you know, I'm not, I'm never, I just don't want them to be like the sole drivers behind things.
24:42But yeah, like, I don't think I paid attention to like air yards at the target as much.
24:48That's a nice, simple little, I mean, that's become that's even just in the past few years.
24:53Doesn't it feel like that one has become like so mainstream?
24:56Oh, it's like, it's like, it's like just part of like the average player understands.
25:01Yeah. Yeah. And like a dot for receivers being very important.
25:04You know, I'd say I'll look at expected numbers.
25:07Yeah. And honestly, I, I will like use them if they make my point.
25:11And if they don't, I'll just be like, I didn't, I don't know what you're talking about.
25:16I didn't see it. But, you know, I think it's, I'm glad it's there.
25:20I'm, I'm interested. I'm interested to see what it says.
25:23I don't really know that like wind shares, wind shares added per play that, that stuff.
25:28I don't really buy too much, but, but yeah, for sure.
25:31I mean, like you said, uh, in those sections of the Almanac where I do the little research projects, I'm an, I'm
25:38intending that to be somewhat of a nod. It's not, it's not always an analytic question, but sometimes it is.
25:44And, and have it be like, well, how often has 34 year old wide receiver, you know, acted like a wide receiver one or wide receiver two.
25:52I mean, I think that's, that's kind of analytics, you know, to some degree.
25:57Um, and that stuff is, gives context that I find to be incredibly helpful.
26:01That's the stuff that I love to lean on as like a guide is the, the trends type stuff.
26:07Right. And not to say that, like, I do actually think that there's a lot of over analysis.
26:12I mean, shocker. I mean, you'll definitely agree with it.
26:15There, there's a lot of over analysis with numbers that have not been tested in terms of them being predictive whatsoever.
26:21Right. Like you go on Twitter and it's interesting to maybe look at, but it's really, really easy to then have people
26:28kind of like latch on to whatever this analyst is saying or what have you.
26:33And I mean, people could then come to me and be like, well, this person said this on Twitter and this was
26:39the metric that they were citing and whatever. And I'm like, that's cool.
26:43I just, I want to know how valid that metric is to begin with, you know, like how, how important that kind
26:50of metric is before I'm just blindly falling. Now, some metrics are obviously going to be like somewhat intuitive.
26:56And they're obviously, if you're looking at like usage on third down and long or something like that for a running back
27:02and seeing like, if they're, you know, rotating running backs and getting, you know, data that way to just understand deployment in
27:09the way that teams are kind of using their players.
27:12That's one thing I'm saying more so of like these proprietary metrics that are out there that kind of look like they
27:19make sense on paper, but they are not necessarily predictive whatsoever.
27:22And so that's kind of like the angle that late rounds always gone with.
27:26And I hired Brandon Godula on in January to sort of like dig into that stuff.
27:31Like our newsletter is just basically Brandon digging into does catchable targets rate matter?
27:35You know, it's a metric that people throw out there all the time, but how predictive and how meaningful is it?
27:42Yeah. And you know, it, a lot of these metrics are like, they matter at the extremes, but they don't really matter for the bulk of the players.
27:50You know what I mean? Yeah, I do. And, and there's such a difference between these high, you would consider them to
27:57be almost like high fructose, highly processed stats that like you said, sometimes are proprietary or sometimes I just don't, they don't
28:03really make any intuitive sense about how they're coming up.
28:06Oh, trust us. It's a, it's a pretty complicated formula, but it works.
28:10We came up with it as opposed to things like you said, like observable things that are simply converted to math.
28:17Those are really very, very useful as background noise that I'm constantly looking at.
28:21You know, I'm constantly like, well, how many routes did he run on third down?
28:25Like, yeah, you know, that's hugely important to say that there's no data in what I do, or I mean, to say
28:32that there's no film, what you do. I know from personal experience, you watch every damn game.
28:37So like the idea that there's some, I think we do a lot of the same things and, you know, absolutely there's,
28:44it would be impossible for me to do my job without that, without this kind of observable order ordering of what happened
28:50into some consumable numbers that I can then make understand with what I'm observing.
28:55That's such a massive important part of what I do.
28:58It's impossible to know after watching a game, exactly how many routes a player ran.
29:02Of course. And what down and, and like, you know, did they run the route beyond 10 yards?
29:08Like that's all amazing stuff to know. I really important.
29:11Right. Yeah. Is there a player trait that you think fantasy analysts tend to overrate?
29:15Like can be any position, just like a, a trait that you think that, you know, I, I mean, I guess I already phrased it.
29:23The fantasy analysts end up overrating. I mean, it's the combine 40 time and it's probably more for running backs than anything else.
29:30It's, it's just, it's, it's wild. It's out of control.
29:33It's, it's, it's as if Raheem Mostert never happened.
29:36They just forgot. And I'm, I mean, my, my poster child for that right now is O'Marion Hampton.
29:41Where I'm not saying he's bad. I don't really know.
29:44I guess you really can't come out of last year having a, if you have like a super cemented opinion that you're
29:51positive, what O'Marion Hampton is after a year where he got hurt.
29:54And obviously before that the tackles got hurt. And so the charges were not what they wanted to be.
30:00I think probably you're being stubborn, but his going like early second round, almost like at the turn feels like wish casting
30:07based on combine numbers, because I watch him play.
30:09And yeah, there's, if you're going to tell me at some point that there's, we're going to explain away this hall of
30:16fame career, this first year as, as a broken by-product of bad things that happened, I guess that could wind up being true.
30:23But there's some bad tape from his rookie year where great, you're fast.
30:27I, I never see you get there. I never see you break around the edge.
30:32I never see you make someone miss. I never see you cut into the clear and like have good vision.
30:38So anyway, I I'm going to just use Hampton as again, I don't know if he sucks.
30:43I'm not taking him where he's going. I'll make him the poster child for my overrated stat quality, whatever, which is like
30:49straight ahead speed for a running back. Yeah. I mean, certainly not the player that you want to attack aggressively.
30:55If you're trying to be risk averse in the second round.
30:59I mean, I, I can't get behind, like, there's very proven talent in that area of like, you know, we both like
31:05chase Brown a lot as a player in a great situation as well.
31:09You know, Saquon is, is in there. I think now I have, I like right now today I have, you know, both
31:16a Chan and Henry above Amari and Hampton because of the, you know, just the stability piece of it.
31:22I understand the upside case though for Hampton, at least like the, like that, that offense could end up just being like a juggernaut this year.
31:30Realistically, if things, if things end up clicking, I didn't think that what I saw with him last year was phenomenal by any means.
31:37And he, but, but I do wonder how much he could potentially crush with just gaping lanes, right?
31:42Like that, like, cause it's cause if, if vision is, is part of the issue also, he does take a little bit
31:49longer than what I remembered watching him in college.
31:52And his analytical profile actually like, he looked pretty good in the, in the zap model too.
31:57But regardless, like it took him longer than I would have liked for him to get to that top speed last year, I would say, you know?
32:05So we'll see, we'll see what happens. I mean, it seems like you're drafting laundry at that point.
32:10It seems, it seems like if you're going to take the plunge on Hampton, I understand what could go right, but it's
32:17almost like you're drafting the situation and not the player.
32:20And I'm just, I think you are. I think you, I think you have to.
32:25Yeah. I think that's what it really comes down.
32:27Like, would you be, let me ask you this.
32:30Would you be shocked? Like shocked if he led the NFL in touchdowns, rushing touchdowns this year?
32:35You know, the answer is no. Shocked. Who knows?
32:38One man's shocked as another man, you know, jolted, slightly jolted, but no, but I also wouldn't be shocked if Henry did.
32:45And I wouldn't be shocked if HN did. And I wouldn't be shocked if Barkley did.
32:49And I wouldn't be shocked if Chase Brown did.
32:52And I wouldn't be shocked. Like that's, that's kind of the point.
32:56It's predicting sports. We don't really know what's going to happen.
32:59I've just seen all those other guys be good in the NFL.
33:03And a Marion Hampton is the one guy you said it that stands out as never having done it.
33:09And I'm scared when we draft situations, when we draft situations, Aston Genty goes five, you know, like I'm scared of, well, there's so much theoretical upside.
33:17And it almost doesn't, you know, it's like Tevin Coleman.
33:20Great 40 time, big guy. Come on. It's like, yeah, he kept running into the side of the barn.
33:25He couldn't see anything. So anyway. But anyway, I got us onto a specific player.
33:30I'm interested in your response to my thought of the 40 time being the thing I'm most annoyed by.
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34:04When I talk to people about my prospect model, the initial reaction to people who like maybe haven't like jumped into that
34:11arena ever or like seen anything that's college prospecting based.
34:14That's numbers driven is that they assume that it's all combine based.
34:18And I can't even explain to you how little the NFL.
34:21The thing that matters in the in the prospect model actually is just the the height and weight measurements that I get
34:28from the combine because bigger running backs do tend to outpace, you know, their draft capital a little bit better from a fantasy perspective and such.
34:35Right. So like I care about size. Now, the speed stuff, it's more so that you would obviously like a if you
34:42had the exact same analytical profile or like you're watching a player.
34:46I mean, obviously, I'm coming at it from the model perspective.
34:49If I had the exact same analytical profile from like an age adjusted production standpoint and one player had a really good
34:56speed score, weight adjusted 40 time and one player had a really bad one.
35:00Yeah, I'll go with I'll lean the player that had the really good one.
35:04Right. And it's more so at the extremes and stuff.
35:07But again, it's one of those things where like you have to have a backbone of good NFL production.
35:13And this is also one of those things where like I built the model and I've really enhanced it and it's gotten better every year.
35:20And I really turned the corner in like the 2020 2021 time frame or so with like modeling.
35:26And I mean, it was around the time that I started this company.
35:30So I want to do the do the prospect guide.
35:33So I really leaned into all of it and I then look back because I'm obviously testing off of data.
35:39Yeah, and I look back at previous years and guys that were drafted in 2016 or whatever.
35:44And I'm like, I see why people fell in love with this player and I see why he busted and a perfect
35:51example of this with the speed score stuff in the 40 time stuff is like a Christian Michael.
35:56Right. Where he had unbelievable athletic measurables and he gets pretty good draft capital.
36:00His production profile was absolutely horrendous. Like it was terrible.
36:03And so when you get that pairing, that's when you know the market is likely to inflate that player.
36:09And that's when you say, okay, but the thing that matters most, the production stuff, the predictive production stuff that I know has been predictive.
36:17Like if that's not there, then I don't really care about what this 40 time says.
36:22Like maybe, you know, every once in a while you're going to get like the random one off hit of like bad
36:28production profile or like mediocre production profile and, you know, really high end speed because every once in a while.
36:34Athleticism does translate better than than what we imagine and what we think.
36:38But I do think a general guideline of like people overrate 40, I mean, especially wide receiver.
36:43There's actually, I don't know if you know this, but there's an inverse correlation for wide receiver 40 time and how well they perform on draft capital.
36:52So like if a wide receiver gets drafted in the top 100, you know, day one or day two in the NFL
36:58draft who ran a fast 40, you generally want to fade that player as opposed to leaning into it because you're almost
37:05double counting because the NFL already, you know, really enhanced that player's profile.
37:09By drafting them so early by, you know, the Darius Hayward Bay thing or, you know, the, you see it all the
37:15time, unfortunately, where these guys just get boosted and boosted and boosted by these NFL teams, but their production profiles would matter.
37:22I care so much more now. Every once in a while you get screwed.
37:26Like I like David Bell when he came out, you know, but I had a great production profile, but yeah, I think
37:33it's a, it's a good rule of thumb, honestly, where I would, I would generally agree with you.
37:38Can I ask you just about the college production profile?
37:41I did a little research thing in the Almanac for Jadarian Price, which was the fewest college touches of any running back
37:48selected in the first round of the NFL draft since 2000.
37:51And the fewest collegiate touches was Jadarian Price. I mean, for obvious reasons, he was playing behind very, very good player.
37:58And the guy with the second fewest who went in the first round was Josh Jacobs, who clearly has had a really, really good career.
38:05But otherwise, the list of names is mostly terrifying.
38:08You know, like Michael Bennett, Felix Jones, Clyde Edwards-Alaire, Richard Mendenhall.
38:11I guess Richard Mendenhall had an RB8 season. But if a guy has, has little workloads like that, does in your model, does that get scary for you?
38:20Yeah. But I don't approach it the way that like people think that I, or not I, but like people would assume
38:27that you would then say, oh, I'm just not drafting this player.
38:30I just view it as volatility. Okay. Right. I just view it as like, we don't know.
38:35Got it. But the thing with, with Jadarian Price, that's a little bit different.
38:40Like if he didn't have, so I have a teammate score in there that he gets boosted because, and it depends on where Jeremiah Love gets drafted.
38:48So he gets drafted third overall. And then all of a sudden that teammate score really, really boosts Jadarian Price.
38:54And he ended up being like a pretty, like more of a fairly neutral player within the model, despite the fact that
39:00he had probably the worst production profile of anyone in that model that got drafted that high.
39:06Right. And so I view it as like, I'm not fading.
39:09I'm not going to probably be as aggressive as some people because I don't necessarily want to take on that kind of
39:16volatility, you know, in the first six rounds of my rookie or first six picks of my rookie draft.
39:21But I don't view it as like Jadarian Price is definitely going to bust because obviously they're extenuating circumstances as to why, you know, the production wasn't there.
39:30But if there was, if he didn't have Jeremiah Love and he had that production profile, yeah, I'd be sitting here being
39:36like, this is a scary profile guys. I don't think that we should be leaning into it.
39:42And, you know, more often than not that works.
39:44But then sometimes, I mean, this wide receiver class in particular this year was genuinely like not very good analytically.
39:50It's just very, as the kids say, mid. Right.
39:53And so Dazon Stribling did not have a good production profile.
39:56Caleb Douglas did not have a good age adjusted production profile.
40:00But it's also a choose your own adventure kind of thing because all of these guys didn't.
40:05To me, it was like this big four wide receivers with Tyson, Tate, Lemon and Concepcion.
40:10It's always nice when draft capital kind of aligns with that because it means that like the NFL teams are thinking similarly and such.
40:17And then it was just kind of like, all right, I'm not going to be shocked if someone's going to emerge.
40:23I'm not going to be shocked if it's someone with a crappier profile just because there's so many of them this year.
40:30So, yeah, I mean, it's more so a volatility thing for me than anything else.
40:34That's kind of how I view price. We kind of talked about this a little bit, but, you know, obviously like you've
40:41drafted now and we're in the midst of, you know, draft season as you look at the way that your drafts have
40:48kind of gone as well as just ADP. I know that you you're one.
40:52I mean, God bless you. I can't do this, but you you wait until Monday of this week.
40:57I don't I don't look. That's honestly incredibly impressive because I have been looking at ADP since I think February.
41:04So I appreciate the people who can who can hold back like that.
41:07But what's been sort of the most common team construction that you find yourself, you know, leaning towards?
41:13It sounds like you're going RB heavy just because of what the board is giving you and such.
41:18But like, have you been in different parts of the board where you're like, oh, late round one, I like double tapping running back.
41:26Maybe in the first part of round one, I'm getting running back.
41:29But then maybe like what does that look like for you?
41:33You know, the number of drafts I've done is I would say more often than not running back in the first round,
41:39but definitely gotten chase a couple of times, gotten JSN a couple of times in the first round and built a team that I liked.
41:47It really depends on what else went in front of me around that two, three turn.
41:52I've I have tended to find just the for whatever reason, the drafts I'm in there sets in mid round to the running back panic sets in.
42:00And I don't know if you you have to correct me if you feel this way, too.
42:05Like I get to that turn. If you're picking, you know, the Gibbs Bijon area, you're lucky enough.
42:10Right. If you're lucky enough, it's you're not going to find a lot of great running backs at that two, three turn.
42:17And so sometimes there are. And it really just depends.
42:20Again, I'm drafting players, not position. So this is all theoretical until we get in a draft and you see what actual players are there.
42:28But a lot of times it winds up being two receivers at that point.
42:32Yeah. Again, you know, like a lot of Devante Smith, a lot of Chris Olave, a lot of Zay Flowers.
42:38I love them in those in that little area.
42:41And then maybe maybe two of them. But also sometimes there's another running back there and I go, sure, I can make that work.
42:48But you said it before, like when it's Javante, I have done like Bijon, Devante Smith, Javante Williams.
42:53And then I just find all I'm doing is feeling like I'm playing catch up at receiver and it's okay.
42:59I'm firing, firing, firing. Terry McLaurin, come on down.
43:02You know, I'll get some Roma Dunze. I'll get some Christian Watson as we go further and further and further down.
43:08And I feel okay about that because, again, I just think there are 50 guys who could finish in the top 10.
43:15It's such a and the top 10 is almost meaningless because there'll be an average of like two fantasy points per game
43:22between like the wide receiver 12 and the wide receiver 50.
43:25And also like the back half, back half of, you know, if you're in that one of those slots, you know, from
43:32like 109 onwards, it's very, very easy to just get your two running backs and feel great about them.
43:38And then when you're in round three and four, there is a tier.
43:41I wonder if you feel this way. There's just this tier of incredible upside wide receivers that you can go for, you
43:48know, that you feel just like very comfortable with.
43:51And data shows that the front half of drafts are, you know, especially the 101, 102.
43:56Generally, you're going to have better results and such.
43:58But I don't really mind the tail end of round one this year because I do think, you know, to your point,
44:05like if you're in the front half, as you get to the end of round two, you're definitely forcing it at running back.
44:12Like you're feeling that too as you're making that selection.
44:15But at least in the back half, you're like, oh, I can get, you know, James Cook and maybe a Kenneth Walker
44:22comes around the second or something like, you know, like someone that you can at least envision being a pretty strong fantasy asset this year.
44:29Right. And then in round three, you're sitting there.
44:32You're like, maybe we do get a falling Zay Flowers or a falling Devontae Smith.
44:37But even if we don't, oh, here's Jalen Waddle on Denver or something like, you know, like there's just a lot of upside there.
44:44So it's interesting this year and the way that, you know, the drafts are unfolding and such.
44:49But I think it's fairer because Bijan and Jameer Gibbs are just such smashes, you know, in the top two picks in
44:56general that there should be a somewhat of a disadvantage, you know, in the later rounds for that spot.
45:01Yeah. You know, we think we know everything and then we get to week one and our mind palace is just shatter and it turns out.
45:09Brian Robinson, Brian Robinson's running into the end zone and Bijan's on the sideline.
45:13Yeah. I mean, first of all, count on zero hands how many times Bijan Robinson has more than 70% of his team's carries in a season.
45:21That hasn't happened yet. I don't think it's going to happen this year, but that doesn't matter because he's great.
45:27Like what we want is great players. They all have some degree of time sharing.
45:32But another conversation, you know, my point is that Saquon wasn't the 101 when he ran for 2000 yards.
45:38You know, there's just things that happen. We just think we know.
45:41And then it turns out we don't really, really know, which is why I think if you're erring on the side of
45:48drafting players, that if everything goes right, they're good enough that they can go really go boom.
45:53And there aren't that many running backs where I can say that's the case, but there's a lot of receivers.
45:59Yeah. You know, if you grant the Jags a top three offense, I can name three receivers who might be startable for fantasy.
46:06You know, if you, if you grant the Jags a top three offense, maybe Bishul Tootin is, but I don't think Bishul Tootin is great.
46:14So like maybe, maybe he'd be, he'd be startable, but I'm not sure he'd be like a league, a smash league winner.
46:20The wide receiver talent in the league right now is on freaking believable.
46:24I mean, that's the other thing. Yeah. I didn't mean to like, I don't mean to interrupt, but like, that was one
46:31of the things that we could have even talked about at the top of like why the spread is the way that it is.
46:38It's because I, we've just gotten really good wide receiver classes the last 10 years.
46:43You know, we just gotten really good wide outs.
46:45It's who that's the position that the crazy athletes play.
46:48I don't know if I said this to you when you were on my show last week or two weeks ago, but
46:55it's like, if you could send any of these receiving core back to like 1970 NFL, it would be like going back
47:02to the pilgrim time and giving them one sour skittle, you know, and like their heads would explode.
47:07Like these guys are freaks. And like the fourth receiver on every team is utter, utter, unbelievable, ridiculous size speed freak.
47:14Like the amount of talent at receiver is both daunting for fantasy, but also just like overwhelmingly admirable.
47:19It's crazy. Yeah, no, it's a, it's a really, really good point to make.
47:23This is Rob Parker from the odd couple with Rob Parker and Kelvin Washington.
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47:52All right. I have to ask you this because I know the answer to it.
47:56And I just want to hear you get angry and yell about it.
48:00All right. Tell me how much you hate preseason football and why you hate preseason football.
48:05I don't call it, I call it exhibition football.
48:08Do you, are you old enough to remember when, when they league called it exhibition season?
48:13Call it that. Yeah. Do you remember that when you were a kid?
48:16Oh, I remember. Yeah. Yeah. Was it, did Goodell change it?
48:20Yeah. Was he the, okay. Okay. Of the joint practices.
48:23I think that's way more important for, uh, you know, as long as whoever's healthy, you know, which position groups, who's out
48:29with whom, who gets matched up on the top guys, who stands out, all that stuff.
48:34They're there. It's certainly controlled play by play. A lot of it's not even tackling to the ground, but it's just, it's
48:41the actual plays that they're going to run. And it is the actual personnel who was going to run them.
48:47And the problem is that all the exhibition games, not only is that not the case for the exhibition games, but the
48:54extent to which it's not the case varies wildly from team to team.
48:58So you just don't know what you're looking at and it's so easy to get bamboozled.
49:02Oh, but they were playing the first defense. Yeah.
49:05They had like vanilla quarters coverage that they wouldn't budge out of no matter what.
49:10It doesn't ever translate. So I, I just don't watch it.
49:13Yeah. It's funny. I probably put stock into it.
49:16Like before I truly really, you know, I think that everyone just gets better at whatever they're doing as they're doing it.
49:22And I find myself like, I don't care at all about preseason football anymore either.
49:27And there's a couple of reasons that a couple of things that happened in my life to like really get me there.
49:34You know, like maybe like 10, 15 years ago, I would put a decent amount of stock into it.
49:39And then as the years went on, I gradually cared less and less.
49:43And then the thing that made me literally never care again was the year, year two, Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense, the Steelers offense.
49:51I think they went the whole, the first team offense, I think went the whole preseason without punting or something.
49:57Like it was something like they were just incredible, right?
50:00Like they were, they were crushing everybody. And then we know how the story unfolded.
50:04Right. And it's what's really funny. I don't know if you've seen this stack get thrown around, but it was something along
50:11the lines of like, so design struggling had like seven catches or something the other day in the, in their first preseason game.
50:18And I saw like the AP sent a tweet out that was like, it was, it was tied for the most catches
50:25in a preseason game or something like in the first half or something along those lines.
50:30And then, you know, you're getting excited and you're like, oh man, design struggling is him.
50:34And look, he might be, we have, I'm just saying that the preseason has nothing to do with whether he is or not.
50:41And in parentheses, it showed the two players he tied and it was Josh Palmer and AT Perry that he had tied.
50:48So everyone's like quote tweeting this and like retweeting it.
50:51And they're like design struggling is the man, but in the tweet, it's like AT Perry and Josh Palmer, these guys that
50:58we just want nothing to do with from a fantasy football perspective.
51:01So it's like, you know, I, there's, there's a lot of that.
51:05I agree with you completely. Like there are some really, really good, reliable beat writers out there.
51:10If you've been doing this long enough, you know, that you can look to that, you know, can give you the right
51:17kind of insights with their teams and such. And like try to find them and, and, you know, you can ask us,
51:23I'm sure, but you know, obviously just, you know, don't take everyone's word for it, but there are people that have been
51:30doing this for many, many years that can be really helpful and just like understanding usage and such.
51:36Cause that's what we were worried about, right. In fantasy, we want the volume side, how they perform in preseason.
51:42Just I've, I've officially retired from that. So I'm, I'm with you.
51:45I just need to hear you get angry. Not angry, but it, it's a scam.
51:50It's just one more, it's, you, you, you know, it's one more case where the, it's not enough.
51:55It's not enough money. You don't understand, JJ, it's not enough money.
51:59My jet doesn't have jewel encrusted cigarette plates or whatever.
52:02Like, you know, I need to, I need to bilk the season ticket holders to, and make them pay for exhibition games.
52:09It's just, it's just a cash grab. All right.
52:11I want to go really quick and talk about a handful of teammate battles that are going on.
52:17And I won't even talk about ADP. I just want to talk about them as players and like where you lean and
52:23how you feel about them more than anything else.
52:26So let's start with, with Luther burden versus Roma duns.
52:29They assuming burdens fine week one with the groin injury that he's dealing with.
52:33Okay. I mean, I'm not assuming that because there is some X percent chance that.
52:38Yeah. Okay. Okay. Yeah. There's a re injury. Yeah.
52:41I'm just curious where you're at with them as just like players and the outlook if they were healthy.
52:46Right. Okay. They were very close in my pre burden injury ranks, but I still did have a duns a little bit higher.
52:53And I did not expect that going into the off season.
52:57I was mad at a duns a obviously he like, you know, it was crummy at the end of last year and
53:03he was hurt and I don't know if you heard, but his foot felt funny, but now apparently his foot feels fine.
53:10Cause that was always nonsense. I watched that tape before he got hurt.
53:14Me and Andy did on the yacht club show that we do.
53:17And we both came away going, this dude's good.
53:20Really, really sudden for as big as he is.
53:23So right now I have a fairly strong lead lean, a duns a because of the burden concern.
53:28Like what if he hurts it again in week two?
53:31But even beforehand it was a slight, I like burden too, but it was a slight, don't say advantage.
53:37I lean on the burden side. I'm a burden bro.
53:40So I'm coming at it from that. I love them as a prospect.
53:44And then like all that happened was that he kind of like verified some, a lot of my priors, you know, as I watched him last year.
53:52Slash saw what he did. Yeah, I know. Second half breakout.
53:56I know. I know. But my, my thing with a duns a versus burden.
54:00And I'm curious if you, if you would, maybe you might completely disagree with this, but I think a duns a is
54:06definitely like a lot of people who lean film and like, like analyze that way.
54:11Like Harmon, for instance, loves Roma duns a, and this is nothing against you guys at all.
54:16I think there's a lot of validity to it.
54:19I'm curious though, if a duns a might be more aesthetically pleasing as like a traditional wide receiver and burden who has,
54:26I mean, he's incredible after the catch Luther burden, like in so much speed.
54:30Right. And there's a piece of this where burden just fits what a Ben Johnson offense might be able to do it.
54:36Like, like if you want to get a, an, an offensive mind that can scheme open as wide receivers and where you
54:43don't have to worry about some of that nuance as much, like Ben Johnson would probably be on your short list of,
54:50of guys that you would lean on right for that.
54:53And burden then obviously is that like short area quickness can do so much after the catch, like with the ball in
54:59his hands, he's the best player on that team.
55:02Right. Yeah. I am trying to look at scheme and fit and such.
55:06And I'm not like, I'm not sitting here calling him Amon Ross St.
55:10Brown or anything like that. Right. Cause St. Brown, I think is a better route runner than, than Luther bird is today
55:17and what we know, but there's just something about the scheme and what, and how that matches with Luther burden.
55:23That's really appealing to me. I get it. I don't, you know, you're asking me if I like Coke or Pepsi.
55:29And because I said Coke doesn't mean I hate Pepsi, you know, like, yeah, I understand the argument for burden.
55:35Yeah. Um, there's been a lot of people since I'm on Ross St.
55:39Brown broke out who have been the next I'm on raw and none of them are, you know, well, I know, but he could be on my own.
55:48I know those limitations, but it could be on my own.
55:51No, no one turns out to be, but you're a hundred percent right.
55:55Like he's really fun with the ball in his hands.
55:58Now, is it Jaden Reed, you know? And then you go, okay, then if he can't do anything other than that gizmo
56:04stuff, then it's not that useful to me. We'll find out.
56:08Uh, but no, this is not me disliking Luther burden.
56:11You're a new England guy. So I am very curious about how you feel about that backfield with Travion Henderson and Ramond Ray Stevenson.
56:18I mean, I'm going to tell you right now, I'm going to tell everybody right now, uh, Travion Henderson's being overrated.
56:24It's year two. They still can't trust him in past protection.
56:28You know, I was the guy when everybody was dropping Travion last year who got on the show and said, a little
56:34birdie is telling me do not drop Travion Henderson that we have plans for him.
56:39And then like a couple of weeks later, they had plans for him and it was obviously a work in progress.
56:45And all I can tell you is that it is continues to be a work in progress.
56:50And this is going to be, if you're drafting Travion in the fourth round, you're going to be annoyed because there are
56:57going to be some weeks where he touches it 13 times and has 44 yards and doesn't break the big one.
57:03And Ramond Ray scores two touchdowns. And you're going to be like, why did I do this to myself?
57:09I have Ramond Ray straight up. I mean, they're in the same tier for me, but I've, I, cause I look, I
57:16understand the explosive nature to Travion's game. Like there's a lot of upside packaged in that if things start to click.
57:22But I mean, I, I, I think that new England just looks at what's reliable.
57:27And I think like Ramond Ray Stevenson first half of the season, fine.
57:31What is he, he was awesome the second half of last year.
57:34Like he was legitimately really good. And I took an L cause I was, I, I was a rat.
57:40We won't get into it. Happens to everybody happens.
57:43Yeah. I mean, look, sometimes you take L's with this job.
57:46It's not over. It's not over with Henderson. I think here's where they are.
57:50I mean, I'm not telling you, I know everything, but like, I know a little something.
57:55And I think where they are is that they view it as a continuum and they're trying to be patient with him
58:02and they're, they want them to return kicks and they, you know, like they view it as a really awesome quiver arrow in their quiver.
58:09I should say, you know, they view it as a excellent, they're going to be times where they just try to isolate
58:16them and get him with a nice kick out block and a very obvious clear lane.
58:21And there's a 90 yard run waiting to happen right there.
58:24Yeah. But I just think it's not that he'll never be able to do the rest of it, but I don't think
58:31they think he can do it now. Yeah. I'm also, you know, they, they ran the fewest amount of plays while trailing
58:38last year in terms of percent of plays run.
58:40And that's going to change. Remondre was on the field for, yeah.
58:44Remondre was on the field for more than double the snaps as Travion in those situations because of the pass pro stuff.
58:51And so obviously tougher schedule this year, more than likely, and just general regression, just the way that the NFL ebbs and
58:57flows, you're going to see more negative game scripts.
59:00And that's where I think Remondre is just going to be on the field more.
59:04That's correct. Like you could argue that last year was really, really a decent situation in general for a player like Travion who was struggling in pass pro.
59:13And now, you know, they might just go with more of the reliable guy, as long as Remondre can hold onto the ball, of course, because there's right.
59:21There's that side, which he seemed to figure out that.
59:24I mean, there's obviously a lot of variance to fumbling and such, but it was a problem for him for a while.
59:31I mean, two years ago, two years ago. I thought he was going to get cut.
59:36I mean, yeah, I know. Yeah. Brian Thomas versus Parker Washington.
59:39Would love to hear your take on this one, man.
59:42Parker Washington. Could there be more heat behind any player in fantasy right now?
59:47Holy no, but I've, I've freaking love it though, because I, I mean, I don't love it because I like, I like Parker.
59:53I know. I'd like to get him. I'm just, I'd like the cheaper price.
59:58Yeah. I like, I like the sixth round price.
60:00I don't think that's ever happening again. My take, I'm interested in your take, but my take is that the new Jags
60:07coaching staff came in, Liam Cohen and his cohorts and said, Brian Thomas with your nose so bright, you know, you're, you're the man.
60:14And they tried to have him do everything. And within about six weeks, they were like, Oh, he can't do everything.
60:21I mean, he looked terrified to go over the middle.
60:24He looked uncoordinated having to run dig routes. He looked like the timing was just off.
60:29And so I felt like they started taking stuff away, that stuff away from him and put him back in more hat
60:35tip, Matt Harmon, sacrificial X land, even before he got hurt.
60:39And then of course the Raider game, he gets hurt.
60:42And after that, it probably isn't fair to judge because who knows?
60:45He had a high ankle sprain. It's legit hurt.
60:48You know, he came back maybe a little too early and maybe that's why he wasn't great.
60:53But the lesson I took away was Parker Washington wasn't even the fourth receiver at the beginning of last year.
60:59And they found him mid-year and suddenly he's doing all the stuff that they had Thomas, at least the stuff, interior type
61:06stuff that they had slated for Thomas and he just killed it and was awesome at it.
61:11And so why in the world would you go back?
61:14So I pretty strongly prefer Washington to Brian Thomas.
61:17Yeah, I'm in the same boat. The thing with Parker Washington too, is that like, he's not the traditional slot guy, I would argue.
61:24Like he's, I mean, he's built like a running back kind of right.
61:28Where he can, he can do a lot with, with his size, but he gets vertical a lot more than people realize too.
61:35That I think is, is a huge part of his game.
61:38There's some, it's just, oh, sorry. There's some two year ago JSN in him.
61:42Yeah. Like, like, like you want to talk about a, like an Amin Ra archetype type player.
61:48Like he would be one that kind of fits in that a little bit more.
61:52And it's, you know, it is a scheme in an offense that I don't put a ton of stock in this kind
61:59of thing, but like has traditionally fed slot guys.
62:01And I, you know, I, a personnel is going to, going to dictate this to a degree, but like Liam, like Chris
62:08Godwin was on his way to having the best season of his career with, with Liam Cohen.
62:13I mean, you can even date back to Cohen at Kentucky.
62:17He was using Wanda Robinson, you know, in that, in that kind of role.
62:21And so like, I don't think it's, this all happened by accident.
62:24Like I, I do think that Parker, I actually thought Parker Washington wasn't a bad prospect to coming out as one of
62:31those things where the model was saying, cause I can go back and I can look at old prospect guides and see
62:38what I was thinking about these players. And I was like fighting against the model in my writeup.
62:43I'm like, the model really likes him, but I'm like, eh, you don't need to like go crazy.
62:49And I'm like, I wish I would have just leaned into this a little bit more, you know?
62:54But yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm with you with, with Washington.
62:57I genuinely think that he has, I mean, we saw it last year, his upside down the stretch and they were a
63:04top three offense and touchdowns per game. Like they were, they were one of the best offenses in football when they started
63:10to focus that off, that, that offense, that passing attack through him, even against some tough, I mean, that Denver game was
63:17the one that really got me where I'm like, I'm like, oh, okay.
63:21So they can do this against a defense like Denver's on the road.
63:25That's not nothing. Yeah. On the road. And so again, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll kind of draw a JSN with DK Metcalf there.
63:32Those first couple of years where he's mostly a slot player and he's doing, but he's still doing downfield stuff.
63:38And you know, I'm going to run out and do that.
63:41I'm going to run out and go downfield. You know, and it's hard now that JSN broke out to be like next JSN.
63:48All you need to do is put them on the outside.
63:52I don't know that for sure. Cause I didn't know for sure that JSN would do that, but yeah, I'm more excited by him.
63:59And to be honest, after I came away from that Brian Thomas film review, if somebody had offered me a first round
64:06pick for Brian Thomas in the NFL draft, yeah.
64:08Even on the rookie contract, I probably would have done it.
64:12Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Also Brian Thomas, I, I said this on a show I had rich rebar on and we did a
64:18players to avoid episode and he brought up Brian Thomas as one of the players and he's, he's going to be one
64:25of those players that is going to be such a headache in a managed league.
64:29And so if you guys play best ball, like get that exposure there.
64:33Cause he's going to have big plays spiked weeks, you know, like he's, he's just a classic better in best ball type player.
64:40And he, he probably will have decent production at the end of the season.
64:45If this offense does click, it's just probably going to be somewhat of a headache.
64:49You know, I think, I think Parker Washington is going to be just gonna be way, way more reliable.
64:55All right. I want to give you one more, one more Steelers backfield because you have on one side, Jalen Warren, who
65:01I went on your show and said, you love it.
65:05I think that, yeah. Talent wise. I think he's like a fringe top 10 running back in the league.
65:10And then you have Rico Dowdle who people think is Mike McCarthy's son because of the way that he's been tied to
65:17McCarthy and you know, it's his guy. So how do you feel about that backfield in general going into this year?
65:23I mean, Warren, I want Warren and it's really, I'm sure that it is a split because they mostly are splits these days.
65:30That's just the way it is. And so give me the guy I think is better, uh, which isn't to say Dowdle is bad.
65:37He's Dowdles had such a great story. You want to talk about things that make you like the NFL.
65:43Think about Rico doubt, right? Like, right. Not a prospect and you know, a practice squad player and just barely hanging on
65:50in Dallas and then gets a chance and looks great, but they won't sign him to a contract.
65:55Why? I mean, it worked out. Yeah. I don't understand why you wouldn't have just paid him the $2 million you paid Javante Williams.
66:03It just seems really strange to me. Then he goes to Carolina.
66:06It seems buried. Nope. Takes that job over. Terrific.
66:09And now goes to Pittsburgh and still didn't get great money, but like a little more money.
66:14So love the story and think he's a good player.
66:17Like more, more power back than not. A little bit of speed, a little bit of wiggle.
66:22He's okay. Could catch it a little bit, but you said it on my show best.
66:27I mean, Jalen Warren is a, an extremely talented person.
66:30He is very, very good. And so like, do I, do I reach to get Jalen Warren?
66:35He's a flex, but I, I will definitely choose him over Dowdle.
66:39Yeah. Yeah. You know, if you want some data to the Jalen Warren stuff too, because on that show, I couldn't talk
66:46about data as we, as we know you, I was not allowed to bring up data on that episode.
66:51Exactly. But since Jalen Warren entered the league among relevant, why I can't remember, I think it was like an 80 sample
66:58running back sample of like a certain routes run threshold.
67:01He's fourth in the NFL and yards per route run behind only Christian McCaffrey, Austin Eckler and Bucky Irving actually, who's very good per route run.
67:09Just, they don't deploy him enough in that way.
67:12And then in terms of yards per carry, which is a bad metric, especially with low sample sizes.
67:17But I looked at only running back since he entered the league with 400 or more rush attempts, which starts to stabilize
67:24more once you get that much volume. And he's top 10 and yards per attempt as well on the ground among 42 running backs.
67:31So like, he's literally like this combination. He's ahead in yards per attempt than all the other running back, you know, the
67:38three other running backs that I just named. So he just got this really unique combination that you just don't find elsewhere.
67:44He's really good in pass pro too, which is something that obviously doesn't get talked about much on fantasy shows and such, but I don't know.
67:52Keeps him on the field. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And you pair him with a guy in Aaron Rodgers, who's his teams have
67:59ranked third in running back target share the last two years because he's so afraid to throw the ball down the field.
68:05So, you know, if only he'd been on a team with Aaron Rodgers last year and caught the ball a lot.
68:12Oops. Freaking Kenneth Gainwell. Right. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, like, but like to me, the fit is, I mean, he's just, I just think he's good.
68:20And it's, it's, I agree. It's like, I don't mind Dowdle.
68:23I mean, Dowdle's fine. Yeah. Dowdle's fine. And like, I don't think we're sitting here saying, and that was the day we
68:30decided Jalen Warren was a top 10 running back in the league.
68:33He's not, he's not, he's, he's, but he's good.
68:36He probably is a top 20 running back in the league.
68:39I think talent wise, not, not really fantasy wise because of all various external factors, but I don't have them 30, you
68:46know, I have him in the twenties. Like he's good.
68:49He's a good player. Yeah. All right. Before I let you go.
68:53Yes. I need you to give me and the listeners a bold slash hot take for this season.
68:58Oh, a bold slash Matthew Stafford, top five quarterback.
69:01There you go. You're going, you're, you're, you're bucking the regression trends.
69:04It is. I was actually talking about this with rich.
69:07Cause we talk like my thing with Stafford. I know you're, you're pro Stafford this year and I understand the, the, I
69:14found, I find quarterback ADP to be fairly sharp this year for the most part.
69:19Like it's not, I don't really have like a ton of qualms just because there's such a, it's sinking cluster.
69:25It's sinking. Yeah. Which is good. Yes. Yeah. Which is good.
69:28Right. Exactly. And there's such a cluster of players that I could throw a dart at from like QB seven or eight
69:35to like QB 16 and not really feel that much different about those players.
69:39Right. But let everyone know where they can find you and you know, your book of course, and you know, everything that
69:46you're going to be doing during the season. Pound foolish.
69:49Pound foolish. Just go to Harris football.com for all things, all things me.
69:53Of course, check out late round.com. Check out the late round draft guide that will be being updated now multiple times a
69:59week because people want rankings updated very frequently with all of, it seems like everyone, by the way, everyone in this draft
70:06guide that has been a player to target. In some way has gotten hurt.
70:10So it's just, it's just a, like if like players should not want to be on this list because it could just
70:17end up, end up being rough for them. It's like final destination at this point.
70:21Terrible. But yeah, check it all out. Late round.com.
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71:24This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human.
