Late-Round Perspectives: Brandon Gdula
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 7 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 22, 2026
Published
Fri, May 22, 2026
14
Player insights
12
Players mentioned
Topics
Kenyon SadiqBijan RobinsonDe'Von AchaneDrake LondonGeorge PickensJustin HerbertKyle PittsMarvin Harrison Jr.Michael TriggOscar DelpRome OdunzeTyler Warren
Player analysis
Player insights
Bijan Robinson
PositiveValue0:49
Bijan Robinson is a consensus top two pick, indicating strong confidence in his potential despite concerns about the Falcons' offensive efficiency.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeBust1:00
Devon Achan is a player to avoid due to concerns about the offensive expectations of his team and his reliance on breaking big plays.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveProjection0:50
Drake London is viewed as a solid second-round pick, but there are concerns about the overall efficiency of the Falcons' offense.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveBreakout1:03
George Pickens is projected to have a breakout season, with a bold prediction that he will outscore CeeDee Lamb in the 2026 season.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveRole0:44
Justin Herbert has the potential to lead the Chargers to a top five offense under new head coach Mike McDaniel, who previously had success with the Dolphins.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
PositiveBreakout0:24
Kenyon Sadiq is a top 16 pick and has a strong case for being a productive tight end, especially given his landing spot and historical data supporting first-round tight ends' target shares.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:25
Since 2016, first-round tight ends have averaged a target share of 15.8%, which would place Sadiq around tight end 21 based on last year's data, but he could exceed that given his draft capital.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:26
Frank Reich has historically favored tight ends, with his teams ranking in the top 20 for tight end target share in 9 out of 10 seasons, suggesting Sadiq could see significant usage.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveProjection0:50
Kyle Pitts is coming off a career year, but there are concerns about the Falcons' offensive efficiency under new play caller Tommy Reese.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveSleeper0:56
Marvin Harrison Jr. is expected to see increased involvement in the offense with a new coordinator, making him a strong draft target.
Insight pageMichael Trigg
PositiveSleeper0:42
Michael Trigg, despite being an undrafted free agent, has significant potential and could emerge as a valuable tight end for the Cowboys.
Insight pageOscar Delp
PositiveSleeper0:39
Oscar Delp is a great athlete with a chance to emerge in a crowded tight end room, potentially becoming a significant contributor for the Falcons.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveSleeper0:56
Rome Odunze is a player to target in drafts due to his strong target share and potential for positive regression in touchdowns.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveSleeper0:56
Tyler Warren is a tight end to watch, as he led his team in target share and has the potential to be a top option in the passing game.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. There's room for the people, room for the stuff, and room for the moments that happen along the way.
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0:27Selection varies by location. See associate or lowes.com for details.
0:30Brandon Gadula is a senior analyst for Late-Round Fantasy Football who previously worked at Numberfire and FanDuel.
0:36He's a multi-time FSWA award winner, he's a data nerd, a golf analyst, a cat lover, a hooper, and a big wrestling fan.
0:43These are his Late-Round Perspectives. I had to dust off all the equipment, the microphone, the camera.
0:48I looked it up. I guess it's been well over six months since I did a podcast.
0:54I was going to say, how long has it been since you did a show?
0:59Yeah, I'm like, where's all my stuff? Is it even connected to my new computer?
1:04But yeah, here we are. Was the last one that you did with Jim?
1:08Of course. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We love Jim here.
1:11Love Jim. Jim Sonos. But Jim also, I got a lot of questions about him when I did the quarterback episode this
1:18year, prospecting episode, and people were like, are you bringing Jim on?
1:22Are you bringing Jim on? But his job now does not allow him to do shows and such.
1:28So we had Alfredo step in and Alfredo is obviously awesome and it was a great show.
1:33And now Alfredo is doing work, quarterback work with reception perception.
1:37So Alfredo will probably be the replacement of Jim.
1:40But I don't know from Jim's perspective. He also, this is Jim Sonos for the record.
1:45Yes. But from Jim's perspective, he went out on top because two years ago he called Jane Daniels.
1:51Last year he called Jackson Dart and you know, darts the, the, the top quarterback from that class now in dynasty.
1:58So way to go, Jim. Good job. But this is about you.
2:02This is about you. I mean, we can make about Jim.
2:05That's fine. No, we're not making this about Jim.
2:08You've been with, you've been with late round fantasy football for like five months now over almost six months.
2:14And you haven't done a show in the feed.
2:17And so, you know, we thought might as well do this because you've been doing a lot of work on, you know,
2:24the, the, for the folks who read the prospect guide, you know, your name was thrown out there a lot because you
2:31did the, all the tight end work. We've been doing a lot for prepping and slash getting started with the draft guide stuff, new metrics coming out.
2:40There's just a bunch of stuff that you've been doing.
2:43And so I thought this is a really good time to sort of like throw you out there, introduce you to the
2:50late round fantasy football world in a more intimate way, as opposed to the newsletter.
2:55I should have mentioned the newsletter. So that's really what you've been doing a ton of every week, but introduce you to the, the, the late round world.
3:04But first in doing that, talk about yourself a little bit, something that you don't love doing.
3:10I understand. I know, I know you will, but talk about like, what got you into this, how you started in the
3:17space, all that, all that good stuff. Yeah, this is going to be a, an interesting one, but I can talk, I can go back farther.
3:25A bit. I mean, I was kind of always daydreaming about fantasy football and middle school, high school was on the message boards.
3:33You know, probably at that rate talking some smack, I'm sure, but I wouldn't do that now.
3:38But looking at things like schedule lock, like what if I played this other person's schedule?
3:43I was looking into that stuff and cause I was, you know, felt like I got unlucky, which, you know, always happens to everybody.
3:51But sure. All that kind of stuff. You know, we're talking, I guess 20 years ago now at this point, but my
3:58brother, my older brother was kind of on the forefront, I guess, listening to some, some podcasts and it's now defunct podcast.
4:05I think it was called the fantasy fumble. They're like, Hey, we're launching a website.
4:10If you want to write content. I don't even think I knew this.
4:14Yeah. Let's this is, yeah, it goes right into the next step.
4:18Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. This is crazy. So my brother's like, you should do this.
4:23Like you do this all the time. And I'm like, ah, all right.
4:27So I did it. It was like some sort of base level.
4:31Here's why you should not take a tight end or a quarterback early and you should get your flex, like figured out,
4:38take a running back that kind of like early.
4:41Yeah. You know, before we knew what we know now about a lot of things and before the game changed, but, you know, it got published and whatever.
4:50So, you know, then probably like a year or two go by if I had to guess.
4:55Uh, the site has long been, uh, erased from, from the internet.
4:59So I'm scrolling through Twitter before night class. One night I see a tweet from you looking for writers for number fire.
5:06And I'm like, well, I mean, yeah, I read number fire.
5:10So like, of course, and I remember I was trying to like dig up these old links.
5:15My professor walks in. I'm like, no, I'm leaving.
5:18I ain't missing this chance. I don't know how quickly this is going to go.
5:23So I go in the stairwell, I'm hiding out in the stairwell.
5:27Typing out on like this, I mean, all like old, old, you know, now a smartphone.
5:32I'm sure everything was loading real slow, but I got an email off to you.
5:37Uh, you liked enough of what you saw. And, uh, then we chatted and, you know, I came on, wrote articles for number fire, started editing.
5:46And then since then, you know, number fire got bought by FanDuel and we worked together there till you left and started late round fantasy football.
5:54And let's just say I'm here now. So, yeah.
5:57Yeah. I didn't know. So, so the, the fantasy fumble, did you hear, you know, that fantasy, the fantasy fumble was the first ever podcast that I did.
6:06Really? No joke. That's why I was freaking out when you said it.
6:10With, I think it was Scott or George. George.
6:13George. Yeah. That was, it was the first, it was the first show I ever did.
6:18I've told this story, I think before, but like, I was such a nervous wreck.
6:23Like, you know, I'm like 23 years old or something like that.
6:27Such a nervous wreck. I did it in, I had like a couple of beers before doing it, which is just very not my style or MO.
6:36And I went and I had like, I was living in Cincinnati.
6:40I had a closet that was really big that had good like sound, you know, from, from a sound perspective, an acoustic perspective.
6:47And I, I recorded the show from the closet of that, of that room.
6:51And I remember at that time I had no idea how to like, cause like when you first, especially back then, cause this was like 2011, 2012 timeframe.
7:01And back then, maybe 2012, back then, like this industry was not nearly what it is now where you've seen so many,
7:08like hundreds and hundreds of people come up and then leave the industry.
7:12And, you know, you kind of know, even if you're newer in the industry that you're going to be taking criticism all the time.
7:20Like, it's just what it is with the fantasy football space.
7:23And I remember I had no idea that it was going to be like that because we didn't really know back then
7:30what, what it was like to be an analyst or a thought leader or an influencer on the internet.
7:36We, I mean, it sounds crazy because it was only like 14 years ago, 15 years ago, but that's seriously how it was back then.
7:44And I remember getting so tilted after doing that show because I got off air and they were talking about me afterwards, like on the show.
7:53And they were saying things that were not even really criticism.
7:56It was me taking it a certain way. And then I had to go to Twitter and defend myself and defend my
8:04honor and be very, very overly aggressive about it.
8:06And it's just funny that, that all, that all got brought back to me with you bringing up the fantasy fumble because
8:14they, they seriously were like some of the first people that I interacted with in the fantasy space.
8:19And now I'm thinking about it. What if they would have just kept going with that?
8:25They could be doing this thing full time. Probably.
8:27There are a lot of people who, like you said, a lot of people who have, who were around and aren't really,
8:35but there are a lot of people who've just are kind of around because they've been around and they had an audience.
8:42And, you know, it's not like, that's not to comment on like, ah, they never evolved or anything, but like getting in
8:49early, like a lot of people did. I kind of think about that too, for that podcast.
8:54And just kind of like, man, I remember, I don't even remember all of the things that I read, all the people who were doing fantasy, like analysis.
9:03And like when targets were kind of a thing that people like had some access to.
9:09We didn't even have like data on it. Yeah.
9:11And like, I just think about if those people, or I think about this all the time too, for me, like, man,
9:19if I just like learned about some of this stuff early on, you know, cause my, my path is basically I'm an
9:26English major and now I'm a senior analyst dealing with spreadsheets all day.
9:30But yeah, I just think about like what, what would be different if I was had access to like targets or just,
9:37you know, we're kind of in this a different way early on.
9:41But I'm, I'm glad I came through it with, with, from the content perspective.
9:45That's, that's my strong suit. But I think my background, like overall of just being able to dig in and kind of
9:52feel it's like, I'd say like an English lit, you know, degree.
9:56A lot of people think it's worthless, but if you apply yourself, like you're tasked with reading things, thinking about like, you
10:03know, you gotta filter the information, take it different ways, like create, you know, I don't want to say create a narrative, but actually find the narrative.
10:12One of the things that I love to do, one of, one of the few things that I take away from school,
10:19all my many years of school, one of the most important things was in an English class at Penn State at a TA.
10:27He's like, Hey, you know, don't write a thesis statement.
10:30Like you're going to back yourself into a corner.
10:33As you do more research, you might realize that that's wrong.
10:36And yet you kind of finish your paper and you're like, well, I'm just going to leave it like this.
10:43If you ask questions, you get to explore things.
10:46Maybe you end up with a strong takeaway. Maybe you don't.
10:49But I'd say that kind of is like my, a lot of my day to day now, uh, doing stuff with late
10:56round is like, let's ask some questions. Let's dig in and like, let's see what's there.
11:02And if there's not, don't force anything. But yeah, it's, it's been a, that's been my journey.
11:07But I do think about those people who kind of started early and who aren't really around anymore.
11:13Yeah. I mean, there's definitely like, you know, I do not envy folks who are trying to make it in the space right now.
11:21It was easier when we were like, because there's just, it wasn't as competitive.
11:25Now, I also think from that perspective, you know, you, you bring up like some of your work and you having this
11:32feeling that what you're doing now is so much more in depth of what it was back then, which a hundred percent, of course it is.
11:41But I also think that that's important to be able to, to, to evolve and get better and not just stick with
11:48the same process and, you know, do the same thing over and over again.
11:52It also though brings up like, for me, there's a lot of people that have these like established takes that they think
12:00that I still believe that I wrote about six years ago when I just don't, you know?
12:05And sure, like the late round QB moniker doesn't help, but at the same time, it's like, make sure you're always consuming
12:12and asking questions aside from just assuming that an analyst is feeling a certain way.
12:17But you brought up your background and stuff. Like, I think that that example of the thesis thing was, it makes a
12:24ton of sense because in why we clicked when you started at Numberfire.
12:28So for background, Brandon was a managing editor at Numberfire and Fandle for a really long time under me.
12:34You were basically the first like full-time employee that I was able to hire and bring on to work for me.
12:41And you were such a big help with running the Numberfire editorial and the business and stuff.
12:47But we both had the same mindset of that.
12:50Like that was the mindset that we went in with all of our content in that, you know, you could talk to
12:57the Scott Barrett's of the world and the Graham Barfield's and the Chris Raybonds and all these people who started at Numberfire
13:04and, you know, amazingly are flourishing and doing great work outside of, you know, within the space.
13:09But one of the things that I think that they would agree on is that, you know, we were very strict with
13:16the way that we would say, let the data do the talking.
13:20Like don't have these preconceived notions of what you want to prove because you will just force the data to say a certain thing.
13:28Instead, sometimes you're going to research stuff and it's not going to come out the way that you want it to come
13:35out and you're going to be frustrated, but you got to kind of trash that.
13:40You might not be able to write content around that.
13:43So I guess my general question is like, how would you just describe yourself as an analyst?
13:49I think that people are getting an idea right now, but if you were to sort of sum it up, how would you describe yourself as an analyst?
13:58Like what is your film to analytics ratio look like?
14:01Like how are you looking at this game of fantasy football?
14:05Yeah, I mean like a film to analytics ratio probably is, if I had to guess, like 80-20 in terms of the data.
14:12And it's probably closer to 90-10. And I would also even say that 10 is maybe not even film, but it's just
14:19knowing what I don't know and like what limitations are with data.
14:23And like look, I think another reason that we click is like we know that we look at this from a data
14:30lens, but we also know that data doesn't capture everything.
14:33There's nuance that you have to be able to apply and it doesn't always get applied.
14:39And I think that's also kind of like, I'm not going to fight the fight of like film versus analytics.
14:45Like that's not, I don't like fights and everything.
14:48But I do think that analytics sometimes gets a bad rap because people don't always grasp what good data is.
14:54And they'll see like the, it's like the joke of on Monday night when it's like 47 degrees, like the, you know, the Steelers do that.
15:03It's like, that's not, yeah, like those are numbers, but like that's not data and that's not the way that we look at things.
15:11Like I just think that there's so much to data that you have to know you don't know.
15:16And then you have to be able to look at the right types of data and the right types of data only
15:23emerge when you kind of test things or at the very least you step back and say, there's a two game sample
15:31of a player, you know, playing without the team's wide receiver one.
15:34Right. Like to, let's say, simplify it, say start the season in week three, when that star receiver comes back, you can't just copy and paste that.
15:43Right. You can't look at yards. Like you have to look at different things.
15:48So one of the things, speaking of Jim, I'll probably shout him out a couple of times just because he and I
15:55have, you know, we did a podcast for a decade together.
15:58So we have a lot of the same thoughts on things.
16:02I took a lot from him. But one of the things that he always like talks about is the most relevant sample.
16:09And that's one of the things that I really took from Jim where it's really easy just to kind of grab the
16:16last five games or the last three games or the full season.
16:20But now in 2026, I feel like there's a level of maybe that's not the best sample.
16:26Maybe there's a sample with Jacoby Brissett last year for the Cardinals.
16:29That's a different sample than with different quarterbacks. But there's also a sample Jacoby Brissett with Marvin Harrison Jr.
16:36Healthy and active. That's a different sample than looking at the full 2025 Arizona Cardinals season.
16:41So for me, yes, I look at data. But there are certain things that I do with data that I think are really important.
16:49And I don't always see apply. And again, I'm not like saying that everybody else is wrong.
16:54That's not what I'm saying. Where I think like my brain goes to is let other people give me information.
17:00Like there are literal coach speak trackers. Yeah. I don't need to sift through every interview.
17:06I can just let that do that part of things for me.
17:10Sportsbook data. I can let that do so much heavy lifting.
17:13Where do I fit in? It's looking at things that I don't see talked about enough.
17:18And for me, it's a lot about regression. Expected fantasy points.
17:22Expected touchdowns. Looking at like I have a model that looks at that stuff on a play level basis.
17:28That's where I'm like, I don't see that enough.
17:31I see yards. I see market shares. I see yards per outrun.
17:35I don't see enough usage of like. And like it's not super widely available.
17:39I get that. And not every expected fantasy points model is the same or expected touchdown model is the same.
17:46But that's the type of thing where I'm like, I'm not going to learn more about a team than sportsbooks.
17:52Most likely. Like, let me let me take that from them.
17:56Let me take the coach speak from other people.
17:59Like, where can I fit in? And so I'm always trying to ask questions, figure out like where I can go.
18:05So, yes, it's about 80 to 90 percent film or sorry, analytics over film.
18:10And I don't like I'll watch film a little bit to see if things are good, get supported.
18:16But I think like that other is more knowing what we can't really fully capture and knowing that the data itself is
18:23not 100 percent indicative of what has happened or what's going to happen.
18:27I think it's a really important thing to bring up because people who listen to this show, people who log on to
18:34Twitter, you know, I've gone on other shows. I tweeted about this a couple of weeks ago where I'll go on another
18:41show and I'll talk about I'll get asked about the zap model or something and I'll start talking about it.
18:48And then the comments on that show are like, why does this guy only talk about his model and analytics?
18:54Well, number one, I'm being asked about it. But number two, that's my approach with this stuff.
19:00Right. Like that's what I'm trying to bring to the table that isn't out there from other people.
19:06Right. And I think that part of the problem that we run into when there is disagreement with the way that people
19:13are approaching data is that the loudest, most obnoxious people on social media are often not doing the best data analysis.
19:19You know, there are so many good data analysts and scientists out there that unfortunately, number one, aren't loud enough.
19:26But then number two, don't know how to market what they're doing well enough.
19:30Right. And so it's an issue from that perspective where like there's some really good stuff out there.
19:36But then people who oppose it are only seeing like the, for lack of a better term, idiots out there who are
19:43just spewing things because they want to get clicks.
19:46You know, when there's so much more nuance to what we're trying to do.
19:51If we did want to have this conversation on perspectives, I think this is a good time to do it because we've
19:58done now, you know, five, six months worth of data work and stuff.
20:02I mean, there was a little bit of an onboarding period and whatnot, but we have done a lot of that work.
20:09And I'm hoping that people can now see that the work that we are doing is thought out and nuanced.
20:16And it's not just something that we're throwing out there and saying, hey, we want to make a buck.
20:22This is really, you know, this is the best metric you've ever seen in your life.
20:27And this is why you need to use it.
20:30That's not what this is about. This is about us literally wanting to create the things that we think are missing in
20:37the fantasy space that can help us win in fantasy football.
20:41And while understanding that there is nuance to this, that there is this like attention to detail and this context that's needed
20:48and stuff like that, that often gets missed, unfortunately.
20:51And that's what gives analysis and analytical analysis a bad name in the end.
20:55I gave credit to Jim. I'll give credit to you.
20:58One thing that you always, and this is not because you're, you know, my boss again, but one thing I learned from
21:05you is it doesn't really matter if you have a model, if that model is not better than what exists.
21:12And in whatever way you're measuring it. And like you can throw out any types of data, but like, let's just say,
21:19you know, air yards per route run might sound cool.
21:22But is that better than anything else? I'm sorry if there's like an air yards per route run guy out there.
21:29No, I mean, like, I think, I think a great example of that is like, we've seen a lot of, and it's
21:36interesting data and there could be signal to it and there could, but I've tested some of it, but like yards per route run minus screens, for instance.
21:45Right? Like that kind of stuff is not as predictive as you might think because it is intuitive.
21:51It makes sense in our brains, but at the same time, you can look at that from the opposite angle and say,
21:58well, screens are actually not bad for a person.
22:01Because that's intent and it shows that they're probably good at football and that's still scoring.
22:06Like, it's like the, the takeaway, their biggest play kind of analysis.
22:10Well, that play happened and it's important. And they can make big plays.
22:14Yeah, right. Exactly. It's like part of the allure of, of that player, right?
22:19Like there, there, there's just that context that's needed, but I appreciate the love because I do think it's important that if
22:26you're going to work on something and you're going to publish something, it should be helpful.
22:31It's that simple. It shouldn't, it shouldn't lead an audience astray where they're now.
22:36And look, I've been guilty of publishing things a little bit too early.
22:40I think, you know, like ideas and theories and I, and all that, because I'm kind of taking the audience on a journey with me.
22:48But then I regret that to a degree. Like I remember doing the ambiguous RB one theory or something like that.
22:55It was called where I thought that in ambiguous backfields, the, the RB one that was drafted was typically the best player and the one that exceeded expectation.
23:04But I realized the sample sizes were too small.
23:07It was just not the right way to really look at that analysis.
23:11And so I pivoted off of it, but then again, going back to what we were talking about earlier, people stick with
23:18it and they're like, well, no, we should be drafting the first running back in ambiguous backfield.
23:23And that's not really the case. But with all that being said, you built out and helped build out the zap model for tight ends this year.
23:32And that was a huge, um, ad, you know, we worked on that a lot in January and in February, and it
23:39was a huge ad for the prospect guide, late round fantasy football, all that stuff.
23:44And you have a way more intimate, you know, understanding of the tight end class than I do because you wrote up all of the prospects.
23:53I mean, I obviously, you know, know it, but you know it on a very, very deep level.
23:58And my question to start this with the tight ends is Kenyon Sadiq.
24:03Sadiq has a lot of haters out there, like more than I anticipated there being.
24:07I think more than cause like I'm more online than you are with some of this stuff and like seeing what's going
24:15on and what people are talking about in the fantasy space and whatnot.
24:19And I remember like hitting you up and being like, yeah, they're saying all, and you were like pretty surprised by the reaction with Sadiq.
24:27But what would you say to people who may be drafted Sadiq in their rookie drafts or are thinking about drafting them
24:34in best ball or whatever the case may be to give more of the bowl case for Sadiq and why the model seems to, to not hate him.
24:43Yeah, it's funny because I was digging into tight ends and I was like, OK, there's there's one guy.
24:49He's he's the number one first rounder. Kenyon Sadiq.
24:52I'm like, yeah, but there's some stuff here. I'm going to like be a little bit contrary.
24:58And I was like, no, people hate him way more than I do.
25:02So now I feel like I'm strangely defending a top 16, very young, super athletic tight end.
25:07And it just feels like we maybe lost the plot with what a fantasy football tight end generally is.
25:13And yeah, I think some of that applies to to Sadiq.
25:17So I'll get into some stuff. But I mean, like the case for Sadiq is pretty.
25:22I mean, especially with the landing spots, like Jets, like, no, thanks.
25:26He's toast. It's like so it's like there's like there's a lot to like about Sadiq if you want to see it that way.
25:34Like if you're really like bearish and you want to see it that way, I guess.
25:39But I think there's a lot more good than bad.
25:42Again, if you're calibrated with what a fantasy football tight end generally is and can be.
25:47And I'm about to argue for like Noah Phan and Evan Ingram that people probably just don't understand about them.
25:54But for Sadiq. Yeah, like so Sadiq top 16 pick that matters.
25:58We've had since 2016, we've had 11 first round tight ends in their rookie seasons.
26:03They had an average target share of 15.8 percent.
26:05So I'm a 16 percent. That would be the tight end 21 last year based on the relevant or the games that guys actually played in for context.
26:14Like that's not going to blow you away. If you look at the top 16 tight ends, their target share on average
26:2219.6 percent since 2016 as a rookie. That would be like a tight end 10 by target share as a rookie.
26:28Now, I talked about this in the prospect guide, too.
26:32But Frank Reich historically has been friendly to the position across 10 seasons where he was the team's coordinator or head coach.
26:39His squad just just once ranked outside the top 20 in tight end target share.
26:44There were top five four different times. And like you don't draft Kenyon Sadiq 16th overall to treat him like a 8 percent target share guy.
26:52If they do. OK, then sure. But even like on the low, like that's like the low end for like the late
26:59round one picks about a borderline like 10 percent target share as a rookie.
27:04I just don't see that being the case for Sadiq.
27:07It just seems like people also are holding his competition against him or maybe don't fully like look into his competition.
27:14But, you know, there are a lot of guys have competition.
27:17I get it. But he played with Terrence Ferguson, who's probably a very good tight end, as we'll learn.
27:23Maybe not. But on paper, he should be very good.
27:27Tess Johnson, Troy Franklin, Bucky Irving, Jamari Johnson is projected to be a first rounder next year, and he's a tight end.
27:34Like Sadiq had a lot of competition. And whenever the whenever the Ducks just lost a lot of that competition from 2023
27:41to 2024, Sadiq got more involved, but he played behind Ferguson.
27:44There were three receivers with this with over 600 yards and then lost more, gave him more opportunity.
27:50And then he set Oregon single season tight end record in receptions.
27:54He played with his third quarterback in as many seasons.
27:57And like we're in this new NFL landscape where we saw Marlon Klein go 59th overall to the Texans.
28:03And for anybody who doesn't know, he played behind Colston Loveland, who's like a probably a generational tight end prospect.
28:10And AJ Barner, Luke Schoonmaker. He had 38 career catches in a touchdown.
28:14I think we're like entering this territory where NFL coaches and staffs are like tight end is this new, fun, interesting position.
28:21But it's also multiple positions in one. And like they might look at a player and be like, why was this guy blocking?
28:29Why didn't they get him more involved? At running back and receiver, like you're generally like if you're not getting the ball, there's probably a reason.
28:37Yes, some some running backs are phenomenal pass blockers.
28:40Some receivers are great run blockers. But like tight end is this weird hybrid position where one coaching staff in college might view it differently.
28:48And then we see like Houston, they probably think that Marlon Klein has a lot of potential to be used in a
28:55way that he wasn't in in college. And it's not even like I'm making the case for Marlon Klein so that I can say Kenyon Sadiq was productive.
29:04It's not like he didn't have production. It just took him three years.
29:08And now he got drafted just after turning 21.
29:11And like I like all of this is a positive in the zap model database.
29:16There have been six first round tight ends younger than 21 and a half at draft time.
29:22Brock Bowers, Kyle Pitts, Colston Loveland, Eric Ebron, Noah Fant and David Njoku.
29:26All of them had a peak year within their first three NFL seasons with at least nine PPR points per game.
29:33And I think this is where this all lands is like, yeah, what is a good tight end outcome for people?
29:39If it's just cherry picking George Kittle and Rob Gronkowski and like peak more and like Morgan Andrews is like peak wasn't even as sustained.
29:48Right. Is there's like if you're looking for 15 plus, you know, PPR points per game for tight ends, you just don't see it very often.
29:56You're basically cherry picking the best. So Sadiq in the in the model, the zap model gets comped to Noah Fant.
30:03Noah Fant was a top 10 tight end in two of his first three seasons.
30:08He gets comped to Evan Ingram. Ingram was a top seven tight end in all three of his first three years.
30:14They just didn't score a lot of touchdowns as well.
30:18But both were top nine. If you go back to 2011 and look at a player's first three years, they were both
30:25top nine among tight ends drafted in that span.
30:28In yardage. It's just like they're they're the tier below Kittle McBride Andrews.
30:32It's like that is a good outcome. It's not the elite like outlier outcome.
30:36Yeah, this is all good production. I think people just like are like if you're not Brock Bowers, you're just a guy.
30:43That's kind of what it feels like. Yes. Yes, I agree.
30:47And part of the problem is exactly that. And it's like when I published the rank like rookie rankings and Kenyon Sadiq has a really good zap score.
30:56And then people are like, well, why is he ranked below Casey Concepcion, for instance?
31:01Well, the reason for that is because the position, like you just said, is not giving you as much value in fantasy
31:08football as wide receiver will give you. It doesn't mean, though, that the score within the position, because it's in the context
31:15of other tight ends is what that zap score says.
31:18That doesn't mean that he's bad within the position.
31:21He's actually very good within the position. It's just that when we look back and because obviously we rebuilt the tight ends
31:28that model and we can look back and see who has perfect scores.
31:33And it's Brock Bowers. It's Kyle Pitts. Colson Loveland, I think, had a score of 100 in the newest one.
31:39Are those the three that had? I think those are the three.
31:43Yeah. Yeah. And it's like all three of them, you know, Kyle Pitts has hit bumps in the road.
31:49But like even his output is way better than what anyone should realistically like from an expectation standpoint.
31:55He's still done very, very well in fantasy football.
31:58It's just that I think tight end has had this really weird perception problem because understandably in season long.
32:04I mean, in fantasy in general, we really should be chasing high end tight ends like that's because those are the difference makers.
32:11Those are the ones that truly do matter. But I think that if you're looking at this class, you're saying who has
32:18an opportunity and some chance to be that guy.
32:21It's him. And then it's Eli Stowers probably is the other one.
32:25But, you know, Eli Stowers has generally been that tight end, too, in this class.
32:30You know how it's never really about where you're going.
32:33It's about who you're going with. Like destination could be totally average.
32:37But if the right people are there, it becomes a great memory.
32:41Toyota really gets that. Toyota designs vehicles around real life and real people, the ones who bring everyone together and somehow make the drive part of the fun.
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33:59While supplies last. Contact store for availability. The real question, I think, starts at Titan 3.
34:04Do you have a Titan 3? Now the ZAP model.
34:08Here's the other thing too, is that when we do our rankings, it's not going to be one-to-one to the ZAP model.
34:15Especially for lower tiered players. Like, the higher tiered ones will generally align with.
34:19Because those guys have separated themselves enough to say, Okay, we do feel pretty confident that they're better than the rep.
34:26But when it comes to like a ZAP score of 50 or 40 or whatever the case may be, we're talking about
34:33lower tiered players that are more flex plays at best in fantasy football.
34:37And so we're going to let situation and stuff, and some of the stuff that we more subjectively like, dictate where we might rank these guys.
34:46So, as someone yourself, having written and analyzed all these Titan prospects, I know that Stowers is the two for you, but who is the three?
34:54Who's the third best Titan in this class, do you think?
34:58This is a really difficult one. Not because there aren't options, but because of where Max Claire went.
35:04I still think Chip's down. I'm looking at a rookie draft.
35:07I'm going to go Max Claire as Titan 3.
35:10He leads this class in breakout score. Super predictive at receiver.
35:14Still pretty predictive at Titan. And whenever you lead, again, sort of a generational top of the first half, you know, talent in Kenyon Sadiq.
35:22Everybody's favorite, Eli Stowers, fantasy football. Just like, no, no, he's the Titan 1.
35:26It's like, the NFL doesn't see it that way.
35:29Max Claire still has draft capital. And like, yes, he's got a bit of a crowded Titan room right now.
35:36But I think that if I had to sort of just bet on one of these other guys, the safest bet with
35:43a path to like, no, this guy had like multiple top six Titan seasons would be Max Claire.
35:49He was very productive at Purdue. Then he transferred to Ohio State, was a little bit less productive, but he played alongside Jeremiah Smith, Cardinal Tate, obviously.
35:57Will Kazmarek, another tight end who was drafted 87th overall.
36:01He was more of a run blocker, but a lot of like a lot of competition at Ohio State.
36:07He was the, he was third in receptions behind Smith and Tate.
36:11And like, yeah, he didn't have as good of a market share, you know, just sort of high end output as he did at Purdue.
36:19But like, he was still relevant at Ohio State.
36:22And so now I think you put him on a Rams team.
36:25It's a very good system. Hopefully like math, you know, they got their quarterback, the future too, I guess.
36:32So this should be a good infrastructure for Claire, who I think could very easily turn into the Titan three, like by a good margin.
36:40Cause there's, there's a lot to like about all these other tight ends, but there are kind of reasons why they didn't stand out like Claire did.
36:48Claire kind of has that, like, he's got some Mark Andrews to him.
36:53And like, again, just like you go back, most, most of the high end performers weren't first rounders.
36:58Like it takes the right situation, the right, the right scheme.
37:02To me, I think Max Claire long-term has the highest sort of probability of hitting and giving us multiple like producible Titan,
37:09like top six seasons among this class outside of the top two.
37:13We also have to be open-minded about like, we both like Terrence Ferguson, but there's also definitely an out where he just doesn't hit.
37:21Like he has to get better as a blocker.
37:24He has to do more. Like he there's improvement that needs to be done with Terrence Ferguson that I think when you
37:31look at his profile versus Max Claire's, for instance, Claire looks like a more well-rounded tight end.
37:36Whereas Ferguson looks like the Darren Waller ceiling play, you know, like the, like could actually break fantasy football potentially.
37:43Whereas Claire, like you said, is like the Andrews, like, like maybe not the Kittle outcome or something like that, but like
37:50a very, very, you know, solid way above average type outcome.
37:53And there are so many names and profiles in the ZAP model at tight end built on, man, if this guy hits, look out.
38:01And it's like, they don't always hit. But yeah, and that's not, that's not to put anybody in that particular bucket, like Ferguson in that bucket.
38:09But tight ends, this weird combination, like some teams want you to block more or make sure you can block before you get on the field.
38:18Some teams are like, we're just going to make you a big slot receiver.
38:22Yeah. And I think that Max Claire brings enough just like safety to an offense that he could be like a low,
38:30like a high floor kind of play. And in a good scoring season, he's like a, you know, top three tight end down the line.
38:38Any sleeper tight ends from the class? Because that's something that, because basically you get to like the round five, round six and rookie drafts right now.
38:46And you're only looking at tight ends for the most part because the running back and wide receiver classes are so weak.
38:53Yeah. I mean, it kind of depends. I see a lot of like, there's still generally a big three at tight end
39:01with Claire usually being the tight end three in most rankings.
39:04And then it's like, what's truly a sleeper. So I'll give some like shallower ones, but then also two deeper cuts.
39:11I do want to shout out Oscar Delp. He's the tight end seven on keep trade cut.
39:16So I would assume he counts for this, but great athlete.
39:20He's going to get to play half of it, I guess over half of his games to play the Falcons indoors, sub
39:27four, five second, 40 yard dashes pro day. And even adjusting that like for, you know, slow it down a little bit.
39:34He's got the second best height adjusted speed score in the class.
39:38It's a pretty old tight end room in New Orleans.
39:41And I think there's like a good opening for Delp long term to kind of be maybe that like kid old type
39:48where it's like, hey, this guy didn't do a ton in college, by the way, played behind Brock Bowers and like, you know, had some competition there.
39:57So I would say Delp. And then for another shallow one, I just shout out Eli Raradon, who I think you have as the tight end three.
40:06I do. But he's, he's outside the top five in consensus ranks on fantasy pros.
40:11So maybe people aren't taking him that seriously, but productive, like efficient receiver didn't score a lot of touchdowns though.
40:17Had some injuries, but I think he could morph into like kind of a bit of a difference maker.
40:23But as far as like true sleepers go, I think this is probably more of what you're, you're looking for Tanner Cozy
40:30all, I would say he was the, it's like, it's not, it's not often that you're looking at the second tight end
40:38drafted on a team, but like Tanner Cozy all is more of the fantasy friendly tight end drafted by the Jaguars compared to Nate Borkutcher.
40:46Nate Borkutcher. He was like a name that I was like, this guy's like a third round, like mock draft pick pretty much everywhere.
40:53I'm like, why? Yeah. The, like the receiving date is not there.
40:57I'm like, he's just got it. The blockings there.
41:00You kind of watch some film. I did watch film on these guys like that.
41:05That's, I wouldn't really count that as my, my process, my general process for fantasy football.
41:10But I did watch a lot more film for these prospects.
41:14And it's like, okay, I get it. But Tanner Cozy, one of my favorite kind of like stats from this class was
41:21Tanner Cozy led two different offenses in back-to-back years and receptions at Ball State.
41:25And then at Houston, really, really good breakout score, max yards per team attempt, both above the 85th percentile within the model.
41:32Like, I think that there's a chance that he just sort of plays like a nice role.
41:38I know there's Brenton Strange there. I know Borkutcher should be on the field.
41:43Like Borkutcher is going to be one of those guys.
41:46I get up my snap grid each week and it's like, played, you know, 70% of the snaps, but didn't see a target again.
41:53I think Cozy at least has a chance to morph into something.
41:57And then the, the real sleeper probably is Michael Trigg.
42:01Undrafted free agent to the Cowboys had off-field concerns, but some, some sources, some mock drafters had him as the tight end too.
42:08And I understand why. Like when you look at the film, you're like, oh yeah, I see the plays he's making.
42:15Did the same plays you'd see on red zone or a highlight reel.
42:19It's like, he's making catches, run after the catch kind of stuff.
42:23Off-field concerns, not the most complete blocker, but he also had the unfortunate pro day vertical of 27 and a half inches,
42:30but he was dealing with the hamstring. Apparently there's a lot for him to overcome being an undrafted free agent, but there's
42:37a lot of potential for Michael Trigg. And I think if you're like looking at, at just a late round pick in,
42:44in, in a, in a rookie draft, or he just kind of floats there.
42:49I think he's actually, uh, he might be the tight end three on.
42:53Where is he on keep trade cut? He's up there.
42:56Um, as far as rookie tight ends go, he's, he's the tight end four.
43:01Um, so I don't know where he'll actually shape up, but like people probably already had their, their rookie drafts.
43:07Like keep an eye on Michael Trigg. I'll just say that.
43:11Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I, I, the drafts that I've done, he's been, you know, uh, bought last round type pick.
43:18Uh, so it's a good call. Like hit him and John Michael Gillenborg have been the two that I've thrown darts at,
43:25at tight end, just because with, with John Michael Gillenborg, you got an interesting situation in Kansas city.
43:30And then obviously the athletic profile is pretty good production profile.
43:34Even when adjusted is still fine enough, you know, adjusted for program and stuff.
43:39So I like the call out a lot as a bit of a teaser.
43:43You've also been doing some research on, on offensive coordinators, uh, for the late round newsletter, which by the way, guys subscribe to the newsletter, late round.com.
43:52It's absolutely free. Brandon's doing basically an article every week in there, all very heavily researched, really interesting stuff.
43:58Uh, so check it out. Just go to late round.com sign up for free for the newsletter, but you're doing some work on offensive coordinators.
44:06And so my question to you is which coordinator shift do you think could result in the best turnaround for an offensive?
44:13Yeah, I'll be pedantic here. Cause like turnaround's the key term.
44:17Um, I think that honestly, if that wasn't the way you phrased it, I might honestly just shout out like drew pets
44:24in with, with the lions and say, maybe this team just throws a ton and we get like an all time PPR season by Jameer Gibbs.
44:32But I think it's really hard and I know you'll, you'll, everyone's going to be on board with this, but Mike McDaniel with the chargers.
44:40It's just, it's such like an easy call that I still don't know is being fully like sort of applied.
44:47Like in terms of just overall sentiment with the chargers and in best ball drafts that I'm doing, I feel like the
44:54hype hasn't really been there yet, but, and like, yeah, turnaround.
44:57It's like the charges were terrible, but they were below average in EPA per play last year.
45:03The ceiling just as like probably the number one offense, which is what McDaniel had in 2023 with the dolphins.
45:09He's now got all the weapons in the world, including Justin Herbert.
45:13And I just want to say like the chargers, they were middle of the pack and explosive plays last season.
45:20Herbert was like average in an average depth of target.
45:23So a dot, but like these, these last two seasons for Miami, like to a tongue of a though has just not pushed the ball downfield at all.
45:32He's been at least a yard or more worse than the league average in a dot the last two years.
45:38Like it, I think that there's still, and like Miami kind of was still efficient ish, despite to me having like a big question mark at quarterback.
45:47And so it's like, I think, yeah, it's like, I think the luster might be off.
45:52It's like, Oh, you know, teams figured out all the motion, all this.
45:57It's like, I don't think that they were really of fully complete offense.
46:01And I think that they would have been a lot worse with somebody else there.
46:06And like, and it's not like the chargers didn't use motion or anything last year, but they didn't get the most out of it.
46:13There are EPA numbers when using motion were not where you'd want it to be.
46:18I just think that from an upside case going from sort of a, I mean, they were 20th in points per game last year, 21.8.
46:26Turn that around to like the top five offense.
46:29I think that that's like a very simple thing.
46:32If you look at their average implied team total based on DraftKings sportsbook odds, it's 23.8 points per game, which is 11th.
46:39It's within a half point of being a top eight offense right there.
46:43They have some schedule issues though, which I think is also part of it.
46:48They play four teams coming off of a buy, which isn't great.
46:52That's tied for the most in the league. So that could also be kind of factored into that a little bit.
46:59But I think that they're very close here to being a top five offense.
47:03And there's a lot of ways you can get exposure to this team, but I know you like the chargers as well.
47:10Oh yeah. Super, super. I feel like I've been talking about the chargers, you know, for weeks on the show and such,
47:17but it's important to call it out. This is to hear from someone else's voice and someone else's mind who's studying this
47:24stuff as in just as much detail. You know how it's never really about where you're going.
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49:32Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Which coordinator, though, on the opposite end scares you?
49:37This one could be a little bit of a cop-out, but I wanted to look at a team that I think we
49:44have some good expectations for who just might not be as efficient as maybe we would want them to be.
49:51But I'm looking for this one specifically for the Falcons.
49:54Tommy Reese. Obviously, we love Bijan. He's a consensus top two pick.
49:58Drake London. I've always been a fan of his.
50:01He's firmly a second rounder. And then speaking of great tight end prospects, Kyle Pitts coming off of a career year.
50:08And I think I've seen multiple people kind of...
50:11Not people, but vibes of like, he's never really called plays, Tommy Reese.
50:15He did. He called plays in college for four years across Notre Dame and Alabama.
50:20He took over last year with the Browns down the stretch.
50:23And it wasn't great. It was slightly worse than their first half of the year.
50:28Cleveland was bottom three in EPA per play from week 10 onward, which again, you have to kind of account for the
50:35context of this team that he was calling plays for.
50:38But it was a downgrade from where it was.
50:41Slight, but still a downgrade. Their pass rate over expectation dipped from minus 3.6 to minus 4.2 after the play caller change as well.
50:49And ultimately, I don't love this quarterback room for this team.
50:53And I think you have to trust that like an offensive play caller is going to get the most out of a subpar quarterback situation.
51:01That's where things get sort of thrown into question.
51:04Last year, the Falcons averaged 20.8 points per game.
51:07That was 24th. If you look at their implied team total across all their games from DraftKings Sportsbook, implied team total on average 21.2.
51:14That's also 24th. Like, it's not just me saying, hey, you know, let's back off of the Falcons.
51:20It's like, it's kind of, they were subpar. They have question marks at quarterback.
51:25And it doesn't mean that I don't like Bijan.
51:28I'm going to take him second. If I don't take Jameer, like if I can't get Jameer Gibbs first, I'll just take Bijan second.
51:35I still like Drake London. I think the market shares will be there.
51:40What I think is probably more likely is these guys have good target shares, but the offense thaws out a little bit.
51:47Tua can't push the ball downfield. Like he can't make plays or I'm not the biggest like Michael Penix fan either.
51:53So like, I just think it's more of a, this team could go from like 20th in offense to like 20th in offense.
52:01And whenever you can have the market shares be elite, that's awesome.
52:05Um, but from like a pure high end upside standpoint, it's funny.
52:09Cause we talked about like take away the biggest plays like Bijan Robinson can have an 80 or touchdown any moment.
52:15But that's not really what Drake London does. Kyle Pitts is starting to do a little bit more of that.
52:22But I just think that maybe the easiest way to sum it up is like, I've been leaning more toward Jameer Gibbs compared to Bijan Robinson.
52:30Like maybe I pumped the brakes a little bit on Kyle Pitts following things up, which is probably silly because of how Cleveland used their tight ends.
52:39In the past. But I'll just say like, they were still a below average ADOT team down the stretch with Sugar Sanders taking over.
52:47I think there are enough question marks where like, maybe this is just a slower run heavy offense where you love the
52:54market shares, but the touchdowns, the big yardage isn't always there week to week.
52:58Yeah. I think even with Drake London that like, it's, he's one of those cases for me where it's not so much
53:06that you change his ranking within the position, but you change where you draft him versus the running backs.
53:12Right. Where like, I'd rather have Chase Brown than Drake London, you know, where I'd, I'd rather have the upside of that
53:19running back situation than going with Drake London, given the question marks surrounding that offense in general.
53:24Right. I think Drake London is phenomenal. I've been a huge backer, truther.
53:28People have probably been sick of me talking about Drake London, but I do think that there is that, that sort of
53:36like X factor of change within this, this team and this offense that we have to at least consider.
53:42Now I could go the other direction, of course, but I think that the day that you just presented makes sense that,
53:49that we should be at least a little bit nervous.
53:52Is there a coordinator or play caller and a player match that you're really excited about?
53:57Like, like specific player position with a coordinator? Yeah.
54:00I've mentioned this on, in, in discord. Um, and I think this will make kitchen pretty happy, but Wanda Robinson with Brian
54:07Dable, uh, Robinson had kind of by necessity. Last year, but he underwent a pretty legitimate role change.
54:13Yeah. And I don't know that it's fully being thought of as that.
54:17Like, yes, I'll be the first one to, to say, you know, you got to look at this player with the alpha
54:24healthy, but I don't know how you just sort of put the toothpaste back in the tube with Wanda.
54:31He was a sub 6.2 yard, a dot guy.
54:33Um, it actually was a career low and, and, uh, uh, 2024, 4.7 yards that ballooned to eight and a half last year.
54:41We had to step up again without Malik neighbors, but he answered the call.
54:45He had 140 targets identical 2024, 2025. He had one fewer catch in 2025 than 20, uh, 2024, but he cleared a thousand yards last year.
54:54It was 315 more than in 2024. In this new role.
54:57He wasn't a touchdown dependent guy had four touchdowns.
55:00He's probably not going to be a huge touchdown scorer, but like, I don't know that he's just for, and first of
55:07all, speaking of touchdown score, like he's due for a two year correction and touchdown luck as well, which doesn't just look at like your yardage or catches.
55:16For me, it actually looks like where you are on the field, which is nice because it accounts for the fact that
55:24he's not going to be getting a ton of end zone targets, but Carnell Tate, as you've mentioned, wasn't the highest target
55:31share guy, even accounting for like other Ohio state receivers.
55:34There's no reason that Wanda can't have like a 22% target share, even if like Tate is at 24%.
55:40Yeah. So I think that Robinson is a really interesting piece who it's not, it's not fun really to draft them, but
55:47I've kind of ended up with a lot of Wanda so far this season.
55:52Yeah. I like that call. All right. Early best ball drafts.
55:55Give me a couple of players that you are drafting early.
55:59I mean, maybe Wanda is one of them and then, and then why you're drafting them.
56:04Yeah. So Wanda is one of them, but also Roma Dunze.
56:07Yeah. He's standing out to me. Me too. I love Colson Loveland.
56:11You know, contractually, I have to love Luther Burden.
56:14You do. That is very true. Yes. You would, you would be let go from the company if you didn't.
56:21Yes. But, but I do. It's just, he did a lot of stuff on smaller samples and I think that's relevant.
56:28And you get rid of DJ Moore here, but Rome Dunze has been like a tragic underperformer in the touchdown column the last two years.
56:36He's top four in touchdowns under expectation among receivers, but when active last year.
56:40So going back to like that, bringing a full circle here of looking at like actual relevant shares.
56:46Like if you look at this team, when Rome was active, he was the number one in a 24% target share, 38%
56:53air yard share, was targeted on 36% of the team's plays from inside the five.
56:58Just, he's always being like overthrown or missed in the end zone.
57:02I think that has to change eventually. So I've been getting a lot of Rome.
57:07I've also been getting a lot of Marvin Harrison Jr.
57:10He's another touchdown regression candidate, new coordinator. He cannot be used worse.
57:14Marvin Harrison Jr. Cannot be used worse than he has been.
57:17And when fully healthy last year, he had a 22% target share, 39% air yard share.
57:22He was averaging over a hundred air yards per game.
57:26He's going to get more involved in different ways.
57:29He has to, but also there's a lot of underlying good information and data in his profile that I think people are kind of not necessarily believing in.
57:38And the final one I've been kind of getting in early on is Tyler Warren.
57:43He was by far the biggest underperformer in the expected touchdown column for me among tight ends in 2025.
57:49He gets creative touches. He can, you know, get carries.
57:52Daniel Jones probably going to not run as much.
57:55And I love, like, I love Alec Pierce speaking to shout out Jim again.
57:59Like we've been kind of OG Alec Pierce guys.
58:02But when you look at the sample with Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce playing over 60% of the snaps, Warren led the
58:09team last year with a 22% target share, 31% target share inside the five.
58:14I just think that like he could very easily lead this team in target share and he's being drafted as like, he's
58:21like a tier below the other elite tight end.
58:24So I've been getting a lot of Tyler Warren as well.
58:27I'm in full agreement with all of these players.
58:30Roma Dunze, like I'm drafting, like I have a Dunze ranked ahead of JMO for instance right now.
58:36So like that's almost a full round in equity.
58:39Rome's like late fifth, you know, on draft games and JMO's like four or five turn type player.
58:45The Marvin Harrison Jr. thing I want to touch on is really interesting because, you know, I talked about him on the
58:52show this week, earlier this week about the stuff that I learned from projections.
58:57And I talked about Michael Wilson and I feel like the community is emotionally bullish with Michael Wilson and they're using the
59:04coaching change as almost a reason as to why we should be bullish because it's a clean slate.
59:09And so they're just going to go by talent, right?
59:13And they're going to say Michael Wilson greater than Marvin Harrison Jr., which I think is only happening because we had such absurd expectations for Marvin Harrison Jr.
59:22Because realistically, their peripherals were almost identical last year.
59:25But if we're being honest, those peripherals for Michael Wilson happened when Marvin Harrison Jr.
59:30was out, right? When he's healthy, their peripherals aren't even close.
59:33I mean, Marvin Harrison Jr. looks way better than Michael Wilson does.
59:37So I actually am looking at the coaching change as a positive thing because we saw the talent profile sitting there for Marvin Harrison Jr.
59:45Coming out and maybe he needs a change to be able to be unlocked in some way.
59:51The different like last year I was fading Marvin Harrison Jr.
59:54I think I had like 2% or 3% in best ball, but he was also a late third round pick, right?
60:01Now he goes like late sixth and into the seventh sometimes.
60:04And that to me is a chef's kiss place to get a highly touted prospect entering year three with so many changes around him.
60:12So I'm with you on each of those players.
60:15Let's look at players to avoid, players that you're not getting as much of.
60:20I have been pretty scared off of Devon Achan, which is not like groundbreaking, but I just like find it really hard
60:27to click a running back on a team with offensive expectations like they have.
60:31Their average implied team total is 18.1. It is fourth worst in the league going into the season.
60:37It's a 2.3 point drop from where they were last year.
60:41They weren't even that great. Like now Achan, huge over performer by expected touchdowns because he can break plays and make stuff happen.
60:48And like that's probably what he's going to have to do.
60:52It's not really the type of profile that I want to lean on.
60:56And I think my biggest thing is like he could have good shares, but he could actually finally have some weaker efficiency
61:03because who is taking any attention away from Devon Achan?
61:06Like every team is just going to be like, we stop Achan, we win.
61:11Like that's probably what it's going to feel like.
61:14It's probably just Malik Willis, right? Like because he's right.
61:17Like that's that's the fear is his efficiency on the ground.
61:20If they're running like RPO, they're doing a lot of stuff.
61:24Like I mean, I think like I said in the podcast, I think they're me extremely, extremely run heavy, even if they're bad.
61:31Even when they're bad, we should say like they're probably still going to be extremely run heavy.
61:37Achan, you bring him up, though, is a good call out because I've gone back and forth.
61:42Like you can see the range of outcomes, but I think there is some fear that like you're kind of banking on,
61:49I don't know, 18, 20 percent target share for him to really be able to hit in a big way.
61:56And there's so many good running backs going around him.
61:59So we talk about my process and everything. It kind of goes back to the chip Kelly, like score points, but it's
62:06like we need touchdowns like touchdowns or at the end of the year or like what separate difference makers.
62:12Yeah, it's there like yardage outliers. Sure. But like most of the non top three guys, it's did they score?
62:19It's like, well, were their offenses in position to score?
62:22However, that's a big part of it. Otherwise, you have to break these long plays.
62:27And I know Achan can do it, but you talk about like a Chase Brown, like his his workload when like when
62:34healthy and when the team got better was so good.
62:37And his team's going to score way more points and he's going to have way more chances.
62:43I've gotten to the point where like with the early round running backs, I'm trying to not overthink it.
62:49I think Chase Brown is a don't overthink it kind of player.
62:53Yeah, it's going to be one of those like it's it's almost like a James Cook where it's like, yeah, well, he
63:00doesn't get like it's a different situation, different type of player.
63:04But it's like for me, I've always been like James Cook, James.
63:07It's like his team's going to score a lot of points.
63:11He's very good. Like that's a different situation than Devon Achan has to go out and make everything happen for himself.
63:18And like their team, their average implied team total this year is 24.4 points.
63:22They're going to score probably an extra touchdown a game compared to Miami.
63:26Yeah. And even I don't know if Miami is going to end up averaging almost, you know, or over 18 points a game.
63:34We'll see. I hope they do. I hope it's a fun experiment.
63:38But to me, I'm not really there with Devon Achan.
63:41Yeah, I dig it. I dig it. All right.
63:44Before I let you go, I need one hot take for the 2026 season.
63:48I was not prepared for this. I'm not a big hot take kind of guy.
63:53Let me say. Can I say George Pickens outscores CeeDee Lamb?
63:57That's a hot take. Is that hot enough? Okay.
64:00Yeah, that's hot. That's very hot. All right. All right, Brandon.
64:03This was great. Let everyone know where they can find you.
64:07You're obviously doing stuff for late round fantasy football.
64:10And we will have a lot of announcements coming, as I alluded to on the late round show this week.
64:16But talk about what you're working on and where people can find you.
64:20Yeah, I've been in the trenches. It was kind of crazy for you to say I've been here almost six months because
64:28I'm like, yeah, I've been pretty head down, like working on stuff in the background.
64:32I'm just now having my first show here. And it's like, yeah, but I've been doing a bunch of stuff that kind
64:40of needed done to get ready for the NFL draft.
64:43But now the season, so I'm working on a lot of stuff.
64:47You know, this week I'll have schedule analysis in the newsletter that will already be out by this point.
64:53Looking at offensive coordinator deep dives in probably different ways.
64:56I did actually do a couple months ago at this point, kind of a high level look at offensive coordinators.
65:02It's a lot of like regression based stuff that we'll probably see some changes, but it could just kind of regress back.
65:10But and then, yeah, we got some some fun stuff cooking for the the draft guide and upcoming season.
65:16And I guess I guess I'll shout out my socials.
65:19I'm on X at Godula 13 GDULA 13 and I'm on blue sky at Godula.
65:24Very rare, though. Brandon's not Brandon's not getting in the in the Twitter streets as much as as his boss.
65:30I should I should just become like tweet stats guy.
65:33But even then people will be like, you're stupid for saying this.
65:37I'm like, I'm just trying to share information. Guys, not worth it.
65:41Yeah, it's not worth it in the end. I feel that I definitely feel that.
65:46But yeah, Brandon, thank you. I appreciate the time.
65:49We obviously talk constantly throughout the day. So this is just another avenue in which to do that.
65:55But also, well, you know, learning some takes and learning more about the game.
65:59But for anyone not following me late round QB on Twitter, make sure you're checking out late round dot com.
66:06Make sure you are subscribed to that newsletter, because like Brandon said, there's articles and newsletters coming out all the time from there.
66:13Otherwise, everyone enjoy your weekend. And thanks for tuning in.
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