1102: Mailbag - Stafford's Touchdown Regression, Superflex Rankings, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
26 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 29, 2026
Published
Fri, May 29, 2026
7
Player insights
7
Players mentioned
Topics
Greg DulcichJuwan JohnsonLeQuint AllenMatthew StaffordMichael MayerPat FreiermuthTravis Etienne
Player analysis
Player insights
Greg Dulcich
PositiveSleeper0:10
Greg Dolcich is a tight end sleeper option, currently undervalued and potentially available on waivers, with a favorable situation for targets.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveSleeper0:10
Juwan Johnson is coming off his most efficient season and is worth considering as a late-round tight end option.
Insight pageLeQuint Allen
PositiveRole0:10
LaQuint Allen played a specific role last season, primarily as a pass catcher, which may limit his overall fantasy upside in the absence of Travis Etienne.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection0:10
Matthew Stafford is expected to regress this season, as it's unlikely he will maintain his high touchdown rate from last year.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveRole0:10
Michael Mayer is expected to benefit from increased usage in 12 personnel, especially if Brock Bowers were to get injured.
Insight pagePat Freiermuth
PositiveRole0:10
Pat Friermuth could see a larger role in the new offense, making him a player to watch this season.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
NegativeRole0:10
With Travis Etienne gone, there is speculation about who will absorb his workload, but LaQuint Allen's specific role last season suggests he may not be the primary beneficiary.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. There's room for the people, room for the stuff, and room for the moments that happen along the way.
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0:32Save the everyday with Amazon. This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, J.J.
0:36Zacharysen. What's up everyone, it's JJ Zacharysen. In this episode 1102 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
0:42Some of you may have heard about it already, but Late-Round Fantasy Football has a brand new website.
0:48We're shifting off of Patreon, and we've now got a members hub for all Late-Round members.
0:53We can get rankings, data dumps, Discord access, and more.
0:56And the site itself has more information too. Prices aren't changing, but if you're a patron and you want access to the
1:03new site, you should have received some communication via email already.
1:06If you haven't, and you want to make the switch, email david at lateroound.com, and David Kitchen can help you out.
1:13There's going to be a transition period here, so bear with us, but the new website is seriously awesome.
1:19And on that site, you can now officially pre-order the Late-Round Draft Guide.
1:23That guide is going to give you everything you need to crush your season-long drafts this year.
1:28There's game theory discussion, player analysis, targets and avoids, rankings, and more.
1:32You can check that out on the new lateroound.com site right now.
1:36That's lateroound.com. The first question this week is from Kobe on Patreon.
1:40It says, Hey JJ, are there any big picture dynasty strategies that you consistently live by to keep a roster healthy and competitive long term?
1:47For example, in a start three wide receiver PPR league, would you generally lean toward elite wide receivers like Chase Puka and
1:54JSN over elite running backs like Gibbs and Bijon if they're in the same tier because of the longevity and roster building advantage?
2:01And in the deep late rounds of a startup are high upside players who may never pan out better stashes than handcuffed
2:08running backs and sacrificial ex-wide receivers that we don't expect to hold much standalone fantasy value.
2:13So I don't have one singular answer here because every roster needs to be approached differently.
2:18Like if I'm in win now mode, I might hold on to less of those project wide receivers who need some time to develop.
2:26I'll opt for backup third string running backs. It all depends on where my roster's at.
2:31And I don't think there's some clear cut answer with whether you go with Chase or Puka or JSN versus Bijon and Gibbs.
2:38I can tell you that I tend to build with wide receiver and non-running backs and usually dress running back last.
2:45I do that for two reasons. First, if I have a higher end rookie draft pick, I can get more of that
2:51immediate production at running back in a lot of classes.
2:54Like Jeremiah I loved this year. But even last year, we had a handful of year one impact type players at running back.
3:02But then second, if I'm competitive or borderline competitive, my biggest need is at running back.
3:07It's a position that teams are typically more willing to part with mid-season.
3:11Non-competitive teams. Because players like Derrick Henry, they're at the tail end of their career and managers know that.
3:17If they're not competitive, they'll want to cash in before being the ones holding the bag.
3:22From just a perception standpoint, it's not quite the same at wide receiver.
3:26The overarching approach and philosophy that I have with Dynasty is to draft for value and trade for need.
3:32I'm rarely jumping tiers for need in rookie drafts early on in rookie drafts, unless it's a league that doesn't have a lot of trading.
3:39But in an active league where I know that I can get a deal done, I won't reach for a need.
3:46I want to first accumulate that value. And then I can address it later.
3:50And when I address it later, I have a larger player pool to choose from.
3:55Not just rookies. It makes doing a deal easier because I have more options.
3:59Hopefully that answers your question though. I think the beauty of Dynasty is that every league has different dynamics.
4:05And every league is going to force you to have somewhat of a different approach.
4:10The best players, in my opinion, they're the ones who are able to adapt to that specific league environment.
4:16Now speaking of adapting to your league's environment, the next one is an email from Corey.
4:21It says, Hi, why are quarterbacks generally prioritized so heavily in Superflex leagues?
4:25I draft primarily on replacement values. And for a 10-man league, so replacement starter is the 20th ranked quarterback, those values say
4:32that only Josh Allen should go in round one.
4:35Most Superflex mocks and rankings have five or more quarterbacks in round one.
4:39So if I'm being totally honest, I cannot stand Superflex rankings.
4:42I despise them. Because if you're not reading the draft room, reading your individual league's draft, if you're not doing that in
4:49a Superflex league, you're doing it totally wrong. And rankings can't account for that.
4:53In some leagues, you're going to get eight quarterbacks drafted in round one.
4:57And unfortunately, the position will dry up. You mentioned using a simple VORP equation where your baseline quarterback is the QB20.
5:04Some leagues, that's not the baseline quarterback. Because some teams are going to draft three quarterbacks before you're even thinking about your second one.
5:12And obviously, the league size matters here too. League size is generally 12, not 10.
5:16They get prioritized so heavily in Superflex leagues because obviously the supply and demand equation just shifts.
5:22Instead of starting one, you're generally starting two. Now, you could argue that it matters a little bit less in full PPR
5:28formats because some elite wide receivers can match those quarterback scores.
5:32But quarterbacks is generally going to score more points than the other positions.
5:36And there are at most 32 of them. There's 32 starters.
5:39And at this moment, we don't even know who some of those starters even are.
5:44Which means the supply can run out quickly in leagues where teams aren't afraid to just start their drafts with like two
5:51quarterbacks or where they get two in the first three rounds.
5:54I do think that Vorp has flaws, just inherently.
5:57I talk about that a lot every year in the late round draft guide.
6:01But even if you go with Vorp, you still need to account for where that baseline player gets drafted.
6:07If he goes in round four, let's say, then it's not an apples to apples comparison if the baseline player at a different position goes in round eight.
6:16If the baseline player at wide receiver, let's say, goes in round eight, that's different than the baseline player going in round four at quarterback.
6:24Because that point differential from that player to the baseline player, it's stretching across fewer rounds at quarterback in that case.
6:30Which means there's a higher opportunity cost if you pass on that position.
6:35But look, I think your overall feelings towards rankings and super flex is very valid because even myself as someone who does super flex rankings, I hate them.
6:43It's different in dynasty because there's a market component that we have to worry about long term.
6:49But in redraft, you need to read the room first and foremost.
6:52This asks questions from Dylan. It says, who are some of your favorite underrated tight ends in dynasty right now?
6:59Any interesting finds with a new tight end model?
7:01Or was that just for prospects? Well, that model is for prospects.
7:05Yes. And if you go past like even the 2025 class, you're getting into tight ends where we now have multiple NFL seasons from them.
7:13So a prospect score is just not as relevant.
7:16But if we look at last year's class, the model reinforces the idea that Colson Loveland and Tyler Warren and Harold Fannin are all really good.
7:24And I'm still holding out hope for Terrence Ferguson.
7:27I had him as a buy this offseason. And even though they drafted Max Clare, Ferguson is an athletic tight end who
7:34scored well in both the old model and this new model.
7:37And we know the Rams are going to run heavy personnel.
7:40And I'm expecting Ferguson to take a step forward.
7:43According to Keep Trade Cut, he's at a very reasonable price tag of tight end 22.
7:48Another tight end you might want to look at is Greg Dolcich.
7:52He's tight end 42 on Keep Trade Cut. He's probably on the waiver wire in a lot of your dynasty leagues.
7:59One of the things to always look for in a breakout tight end is an obvious lack of pass catchers on that team.
8:06And Miami clearly has that. Dolcich is also coming off a season where he was targeted on almost 23% of his routes
8:13run and he had a crazy good 2.31 yards per route run rate on 145 routes run.
8:18That's according to PFF. Now look, that's not a ton of routes run, so these numbers aren't amazingly predictive.
8:24But when we're talking about a totally free player in a situation without pass catching alternatives, I do think that we can
8:31use some of those numbers to just say, hey, let's throw a dart at this player.
8:36I've also taken him plenty in best ball drafts so far.
8:39Some other players who I think are worth dart throws are Juwan Johnson, who's coming off his most efficient season by most metrics.
8:46Pat Friermuth still isn't 28 years old. He could have a larger role in this new offense.
8:52And Michael Mayer. The Raiders are probably going to run a lot more 12 personnel.
8:56I've talked about that this offseason. And Mayer has injury upside if something happens to Brock Bowers.
9:02So those are some random names that make sense to me right now.
9:06This next question is an email from Robert. It says, hey, JJ, love all the work you do.
9:11Thanks. Thank you. Are we ignoring LaQuint Allen in Jacksonville?
9:14Everybody's talking about Bashaw Tootin's breakout, but isn't getting on the field the first goal of a successful running back?
9:21Allen has already proven his pass protection and work in the passing game.
9:25What are the chances he gets the lion's share of work?
9:28Thanks, Bob. I mean, to be fair, they played almost an identical number of snaps per game last year.
9:34Bashaw Tootin and LaQuint Allen. They just did very, very different things.
9:38Allen would run a few more routes per game.
9:41Tootin would see a handful of more rushes. Allen only had a little over one rush attempt per game last year.
9:47He played their third down roll. According to Fantasy Life data, 79% of their long down and distant snaps last year went to LaQuint Allen.
9:55Allen. Travis Etienne and Bashaw Tootin combined for the final 21%.
9:58Now, Allen was a great pass catcher in college, and that translated to a role right away in the NFL.
10:05The problem is that he likely isn't the player that they're going to want to use on early downs.
10:11I mean, last season, Allen had six total first half rush attempts.
10:14He had 17 in the second half. And about half of his attempts came on third and fourth down.
10:20The reason Tootin's getting love right now, or even Chris Rodriguez, is because Travis Etienne, who was the most valuable asset in that backfield last year, he's gone.
10:29And the idea is that someone's going to be taking that work.
10:33And since Allen played a very specific role last season, and this is the same coaching staff, there's more upside for that
10:40role to be absorbed by Tootin than LaQuint Allen.
10:42Now, with that being said, I've thrown plenty of final round dart throws and best ball at LaQuint Allen.
10:48He'll likely have a role in that team. It's just that when we aim for pass catchers in fantasy, we don't only
10:55want guys who are mostly playing on third down, and who probably won't be seeing much goal line work, if any.
11:02The likely outcome is that Allen more so caps the ceiling of a player like Bashaw Tootin or Chris Rodriguez, as opposed to having crazy standalone value himself.
11:10But in best ball, I think given that he has some role, and he's so cheap, and there's at least some chance
11:17for a little bit more work, he could give us some usable weeks here and there on a full PPR platform like DraftKings.
11:25This next question is from Twitter. It's from at BNLBRGHT31.
11:28I'm sure that spells something, but I have no idea what it spells.
11:32What's your outlook on Matthew Stafford this year? Seems like a clear regression candidate based on touchdown rate, but Rams throw at
11:39a much higher rate close to the goal line.
11:41I mean, look, to be fair, the Rams were still just 11th last year in pass rate within the 10-yard line, and
11:48in 2024, the year before Devontae Adams, they were 17th.
11:51And Matthew Stafford had a 3.9% touchdown rate one year, and then a 7.7% touchdown rate the next year.
11:57But look, Stafford undoubtedly had a crazy high expected touchdowns number because they also threw it a lot at the goal line, at the actual goal line.
12:06His expected touchdowns last year were closer to 42 or 43.
12:09That's insanity. He threw 46, so he outperformed that mark, but it's not like he outperformed it by such a crazy, crazy number.
12:16Now, I've seen this a lot in fantasy analysis.
12:19People often think that if a player didn't far outperform his expected numbers from the previous season, whether it be yards, touchdowns,
12:26whatever, that automatically means that he's not a regression candidate.
12:29But that's not exactly how this works. Like, we can't just assume that Stafford is going to have 42 expected touchdown passes again.
12:36The year prior, he was at 28. That number fluctuates and it changes.
12:40It's just helpful when we're looking at a player and we're saying, if he maintains this type of workload, will things get better or will things get worse?
12:49That's what the expected numbers can help us do and find out.
12:53And for Stafford, it would be a little bit worse probably.
12:56But we also shouldn't expect him to maintain that kind of workload because it's not a common number to hit at all.
13:03It's a very, very high expected touchdowns mark. And we also know that touchdown rate is a number that regresses to the mean.
13:10I'll likely have another rewind episode on this topic coming up, but touchdown rate has a negative relationship to current season production among quarterbacks in fantasy football.
13:19As in, when you're looking at a draft-worthy quarterback, the ones with higher touchdown rates in the previous season actually underperformed versus
13:26expectation at a higher rate than the players who have lower touchdown rates.
13:30And that's because fantasy managers, they look at the previous season and they look at those numbers and they say, oh yeah,
13:37I'll draft Matthew Stafford really high because he had 46 touchdowns last year.
13:41That raises the player's cost and it makes it harder for those guys to really exceed expectation because touchdown rate regresses.
13:47So we'll see where Stafford ends up landing ADP wise.
13:50I don't usually have strong quarterback takes in best ball because I'm usually just stacking, but I don't have a serious problem
13:57with this QB 15 ADP over on fantasy pros.
14:00Now it might sound crazy, but I think someone like Tyler Shuck, Kyler Murray, they might have more intriguing upside because they're
14:07rushing and Malik Willis even because if you draft them in season long and they don't pan out, you can just start streaming and still be okay.
14:15It's crazy. I understand that it's crazy to say that because Stafford is just so good, but we have to play this game of fantasy football.
14:23That's what the game is. Whether fortunately or unfortunately, however you want to view it, mobility at the quarterback position matters so much.
14:31I do expect regression from Stafford this year though.
14:33We can't project anyone to hit 40 passing touchdowns, let alone repeating 46.
14:37The last question this week is from at Brainy Ballers.
14:41It says, it would be awesome hearing about your early years in the industry and what helped shape the legend we all know today.
14:48I've heard you talk about your background a couple of times in your podcast, but I'd love to hear more about your
14:55inspirations and what helped shape late round QB in its early years.
14:59So first off, I'm far from a legend. I'm just a guy in mom's basement doing fantasy content.
15:04But this type of question has now been asked multiple times over the last couple of mailbag cycles.
15:10And it's the off season, less stuff is going on.
15:13And so I'll talk about it and I'll bookmark this for any future questions like it because I know that I tell
15:20this story periodically, but I'll just do it one more time.
15:23And if this kind of thing does not interest you, thanks for listening.
15:27I appreciate you. Have a great weekend. I'll catch you next week.
15:31Anyway, where this all started. I graduated college in 2010.
15:34I got my degree in marketing and I had a background in graphic and web design.
15:39Back then you couldn't vibe code. I just learned front end development design while I was in high school.
15:45I started building websites when I was like in eighth or ninth grade.
15:49I actually thought I was going to go to school for design at one point.
15:54So out of college, my now wife got a job in Cincinnati, Ohio, and that's where I moved.
16:00And I got a job at an ad agency and I hated it.
16:04I love the people. I love the atmosphere, but I just didn't like the job.
16:08I was a project manager. I thought I was going to bring all my skill sets together and be really good at that job.
16:16And I think I was good at that job for what it's worth, but it just felt like admin work.
16:22I took one other job at a different agency where it was smaller and I did some more hands-on design, some more hands-on website development work.
16:30But while I was at my first job, I knew I couldn't do that for the next 40 plus years.
16:36I knew I needed to do something about it.
16:39So I sat down one day, I wrote my passions down in a Word document, and I couldn't get off the fantasy football idea.
16:47At the time, there wasn't nearly as much content as what we see today.
16:51It was the big players, the big media sites mostly.
16:54And at that time, which was late in the 2011 season, I couldn't help but notice how every analyst was essentially telling
17:01people to draft quarterbacks early next year, or that you needed a good quarterback to win in fantasy.
17:07But I knew through playing for a decade at that point, because I started playing in like 2001, 2002, I knew that the logic didn't make sense.
17:15Yes, quarterback numbers were really good in 2011, but it wasn't like we predictably knew exactly which quarterbacks would be good.
17:22And we also knew supply and demand was a big part of this game.
17:26And that position just didn't matter that much from a supply and demand perspective.
17:30So I decided to blend all of my passions together on a project outside of work.
17:35At that time, ebooks really weren't that easy to produce and they weren't that popular.
17:40But I knew how to design, I knew how to code so I could write the ebook, I could design the charts,
17:47I could make it look decent, and then I could code it so it was responsive on different devices.
17:53So that's what I did. Each day I'd go to work, I'd go home, and then I'd write.
17:58I had very little responsibilities at the time because I was 23 years old.
18:03I then did that for about six months and I published the Late Round Quarterback ebook in June of 2012.
18:09And then in 2012, a lot of stuff that I wrote about ended up coming true.
18:14Quarterbacks regressed, we had more chaos at the position, and Late Round Quarterback dominated.
18:18That got me a guest series on Roto World after having a call with Evan Silva, who funny enough is a friend of mine now.
18:26And then I actually wrote a few articles on PFF when Mike Clay was running things there.
18:32Almost exactly a year after my book launched, I got a full-time job offer from Nick Bonadio at Numberfire.
18:37I was asked to create content for them, which turned into me essentially building out the media business for Numberfire.
18:44I would recruit writers, they'd write content, I'd edit the content, I'd critique things for the writers.
18:49We were a well-oiled machine. We were doing up to 30 articles per day at one point.
18:54Some really awesome analysts actually got their start under me at Numberfire.
18:58Scott Barrett and Graham Barfield over at Fantasy Points, Jacob Gibbs at CBS Sports, Chris Rabon in Action Network.
19:04There are tons more. Apologies if I didn't name you.
19:07But I'm proud of what we built, without a doubt.
19:10We then were bought by FanDuel in 2015. I became a FanDuel employee.
19:14The first couple of years, they were actually kind of rough just from the perspective that FanDuel didn't know what they wanted to do with us.
19:22But my team, alongside my boss, Adam Kaplan, who was there with me back at Numberfire, we all just started kind of
19:29taking over as thought leaders within that organization and with digital content.
19:33So I was at FanDuel for almost seven years, and I did some cool stuff there.
19:38I got to do TV spots. I got to have a real budget to work with.
19:43I really did enjoy my time at FanDuel. I have nothing but good things to say about that company and the people that I worked with.
19:51It just got to a point where I always had this goal in mind to run my own company.
19:57Just going back to the start, I taught myself how to design and build websites.
20:02That was what I did in high school to make money.
20:05I didn't have the traditional jobs. That's what got me decent internships in college.
20:10I've just always had this desire to create. And the only way that I could really do that completely freely was to
20:16go out on my own and start a business.
20:19So in January 2022, that's what I did. I left FanDuel and I started late round fantasy football.
20:25My plan was to actually never hire anyone and just do my own thing.
20:29But then David Kitchen became available and he was something I actually had to do.
20:34I actually had thought of when I started the business as someone who could help manage sort of like the business side of things.
20:41So I hired him last year, January 2025. And then I was able to add Brandon Gadula in January of this year.
20:48And look, right now, I really don't have plans to be much bigger from a human resource standpoint.
20:54I would be totally content and fine if it's just us three forever.
20:58Because I want to be able to stay true to what I really want to do, which is create content and analyze this game.
21:05The bigger you get, the more managing that you have to do.
21:09And if that's the case, then I would have less time focusing on the content.
21:14But look, in the end, if you want to talk about inspiration and what pushed me to do this, I just couldn't
21:21do the typical nine to five thing. I didn't like it.
21:24I knew I didn't like it. I knew I needed out.
21:28I was determined to do whatever I could to not do that because I know myself.
21:33I know that if I had that standard job that I just didn't like doing, it would affect my mental health.
21:39It would affect my relationships. And that's not a good thing at all.
21:43And I am fully aware of how lucky I am.
21:46Look, I know that I worked hard. I know I was able to think about things in a way that other people weren't thinking.
21:54I was able to market an idea in a way that was unique.
21:58And that's something I'm very proud of. Don't get me wrong.
22:01But anytime you're able to find success doing something, you have to take a step back and you have to try to be objective.
22:09You know? For me, I was lucky to have an interest in an industry that was just starting to boom.
22:15I was lucky to have a loose connection to even have an interview at Numberfire.
22:20I was lucky that my content ended up getting seen by the right people at the right time.
22:25And there have been ups and downs through all of this.
22:29Trust me. Most of the really tough stuff happened pretty early on where I was working like 14, 15 hours a day pretty consistently.
22:36There were definitely times in that like 2013 to 2016 timeframe where I let my work like get in the way of health.
22:43Fortunately, though, I've always had a great support system with my wife, my family, my friends, and I've always been able to bounce back.
22:51I think that's key with anything that you set out to do.
22:55Don't do it alone. Lean on people. Ask for advice.
22:58Be willing to feel what you need to feel.
23:01Don't let it just sit there. But really, what inspired me to do all this was just this desire to create something.
23:07To create something that could connect people and get them to think differently about a game that I really do deeply love.
23:14As I've gotten older, I've realized that critical thinking is something to just not take for granted.
23:20It's important to always work your mind. And this game is a way for us to do that.
23:25That's one of the many reasons I love doing what I do.
23:29I get to go in the lab. I get to completely fry my brain researching things.
23:34And then I emerge with some new idea that you guys can judge me on.
23:39It's legitimately really, really fun. And it's one of the things that drives me to keep innovating and coming up with new ideas.
23:46Now look, there are plenty of details in there that I could have gotten to.
23:51I could have talked about this for hours. And if any of you want to learn more or you just want to
23:57bounce an idea off of me, you can always email me.
24:01But that's really the story. From a lazy high school student who just built websites, hung out with friends, played some sports,
24:08to an advertising project manager, to an editor-in-chief, to an entrepreneur.
24:11That's how late round fantasy football came to be.
24:14Thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are
24:21by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
24:24And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
24:29Thanks for listening this week, everyone. I greatly appreciate it.
24:32Make sure you check out LateRound.com. Sign up for whatever you can sign up for or whatever you want to sign up for.
24:39I'd greatly appreciate it. Thanks for the continued support.
24:42Enjoy your weekend. I'll catch you next week. This is Sophia Donner from OK Storytime.
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