Rewind: A New Way to Spot Middle-Round Running Back Breakouts
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
25 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 26, 2026
Published
Tue, May 26, 2026
11
Player insights
9
Players mentioned
Topics
Jordan MasonTrayvon HendersonBlake CorumChuba HubbardDavid MontgomeryJacory Croskey-MerrittJavonte WilliamsRhamondre StevensonTony Pollard
Player analysis
Player insights
Blake Corum
NegativeRole0:22
Blake Corum looks like a split backfield running back who won't see a significant increase in receiving work, making him a less appealing option in managed leagues.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeBust0:15
Chuba Hubbard had a yards per route run rate of just 0.79 last year, and historical trends suggest he is unlikely to see a high target share this season.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveUsage0:15
David Montgomery had a strong yards per route run rate last year, making him an interesting target for the upcoming season.
Insight pageJacory Croskey-Merritt
NegativeRole0:25
Ja'Cory Krosky-Merritt did not have a well-rounded receiving profile as a prospect, and this lack of development translated poorly in his first year.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeBust0:15
Javante Williams had a concerning yards per route run rate of 0.40 last year, raising red flags about his potential performance.
Insight pageJordan Mason
NegativeBust0:15
Jordan Mason had a poor yards per route run rate of 0.54 last year, and players below 0.7 have not hit a 10% target share since 2014.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:30
Jordan Mason continues to be a player who does not fit the analyst's process well, similar to his performance last year.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveRole0:01
Ramondre Stevenson had a resurgence at the end of the season after a mediocre start, but his role may be impacted by the addition of Travion Henderson in New England.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeBust0:15
Tony Pollard's yards per hour run was 0.68 last year, the worst of his career, making him a significant red flag for the upcoming season.
Insight pageTrayvon Henderson
PositiveRole0:15
Travion Henderson had a yards per hour run of 0.93, which is not alarming, but it indicates he needs to improve to be a reliable fantasy option.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:22
Travion Henderson has run 238 routes with a low efficiency of 0.93 yards per route run, indicating room for improvement in his receiving game.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. We'll Learn more at Toyota.com and find the vehicle that fits your people.
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0:30This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharysen.
0:34Hey guys, no, this is not your typical Late Round Podcast.
0:38Every once in a while during the offseason, I'll bring back an evergreen episode from the past that's still relevant today.
0:45I'm doing that here because it's a holiday weekend, it's May, and there's a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes
0:52that I need to put some energy into. More on that coming very, very soon.
0:57But today, I'm going to throw some research at you that I did last year on middle-round running backs and their pass-catching ability.
1:05Specifically, spotting middle-round running back value by simply looking at previous season yards per route run.
1:10You'll hear the study on today's Rewind episode, and you'll also hear some names from last year who fit the criteria of being red flags within that statistic.
1:20Not all of them completely flamed out, like Ramondre Stevenson, who had a resurgence at the end of the season after kind of a mediocre start.
1:28But there were a lot of hits with this method.
1:32Chuba Hubbard, Jordan Mason, Tony Pollard, Tyrone Tracy, they all weren't that special.
1:36In my opinion, it's a really interesting way to look at these middle-round running backs.
1:41And since I know I'm going to get questions about it, I'll talk very briefly about running backs who fit this criteria at the end of the show.
1:51But first, give the episode a new way to spot middle-round running back breakouts a quick listen.
1:56I've always been fascinated with average draft position data.
1:59Like, we can always do analysis and see the types of traits that certain league-winning wide receivers or running backs share, and
2:07sort of do our analysis from there. Like, if we know league-winning running backs always come from good offenses, then we should
2:14probably focus on running backs and good offenses. If we knew that league-winning wide receivers never had a teammate draft in the
2:21top 24 at the position, then we'd probably focus on line-outs who had a lot of projected target share for themselves.
2:29That kind of stuff. But not all of that is always actionable.
2:33If the market is factoring in a lot of the discoveries that we make from that type of analysis, it's not bad
2:40to have that information in mind, but it's not as useful as we think.
2:45Because a player's cost will already reflect all of those things.
2:48Like, if we went to a farmer's market, you might find a fruit vendor that does a ton of business each week.
2:56They've got really good fruit, objectively. But it also costs a lot to get that fruit.
3:01So the cost-benefit actually might not be there. Wouldn't you want to find the smaller fruit vendor who has better prices and
3:09may be able to offer up similar-tasting fruit? That's why I look so much through the lens of ADP.
3:15Because it's one way to ensure that we're finding value throughout our draft.
3:19Now, through the years, something that's always been obvious when doing my ADP analysis is that pass-catching running backs will outperform expectation
3:27at a severely higher rate than the alternative. Like, somehow the market still doesn't factor in pass-catching enough at running back.
3:34But it's one thing to say, hey, draft running backs who catch passes.
3:38It's another to actually tell you what to look for when you're doing that.
3:43And I realized that mistake when writing this year's late-round draft guide.
3:47Which, by the way, the guide will be out on July 1st.
3:51Make sure you're pre-ordering right now. But I'm bringing up the draft guide because a big focus of that guide for me
3:58this year has centered around making things even more actionable for the reader.
4:03Like, I can say, hey, running backs who are league winners, they usually look like X.
4:08When that X is some piece of information that we learn after the season.
4:13Going back to the quick example I shared earlier, running backs are league winners when they're in offenses that scored three or more touchdowns per game.
4:21Okay, let's say that's true. Let's say that's factual.
4:24Now tell me which offenses will score three or more touchdowns per game.
4:29When it comes to receiving work, tell me which running backs are going to catch a lot of passes this year.
4:36Now we can have a general idea of who will and who won't catch passes.
4:41Rashad White, remember his second year in the league?
4:44That was a big draft guide hit that year.
4:47Largely because his receiving upside was there. We knew that he had a shot to play that kind of pass catching role.
4:54And we knew that he had a collegiate profile that really dictated that.
4:59But it was still a more subjective take. Now rather than looking at that through some semi-subjective lens, I took things a
5:06step further this year to show you that one metric might be more predictive versus the market than you probably think at running back.
5:14And that metric is yards per route run. We've been working with yards per route run at wide receiver for years now.
5:22And while myself and other analysts will cite yards per route run at running back, I'm not sure we're citing it enough.
5:29Though to be fair, I'm not really listening to other fantasy podcasts.
5:33So maybe I'm wrong. In the draft guide this year, I break the running back position down into three buckets.
5:40Early round players, middle round running backs, and then late round running backs.
5:44I split things up because each part of your draft actually dictates that you think about the position a little bit differently
5:51versus how the market has historically behaved. There are some interesting pass catching trends with early round running backs, but I'll save that for another day.
6:00What I really want to get to today is the middle round area, which is defined as running backs ranked as RB19 to RB42.
6:08Now there are reasons for those boundaries that I discussed in the guide, but that's also not that important of a topic for today's show.
6:17Just know that I've defined middle round running backs as the ones who are ranked 19th to 42nd by average draft position.
6:24Since 2014, which is where my ADP data goes back to, and shout out fantasy data for that data, but since 2014,
6:31there have been 233 middle round running backs who played at least eight games in their analyzed season.
6:38So minimum eight games played and had an ADP of RB19 to RB42.
6:4259 of those 233 middle round running backs finished their season with a sub 5% target share per game rate.
6:49104 of them were in the 5% to 10% range, and then 70 of those running backs had a 10% target share per game rate or better.
6:58Now get this, of the players with a sub 5% target share, only 1.7% of them outperformed their average draft position expectation
7:05by two or more PPR points per game. Now average draft position expectation, it's exactly as it sounds.
7:11It's the number of points we'd expect a player to score at a certain ADP.
7:16That's all based on historical data. So if that player's actual points per game exceeded his expected points per game by two
7:24or more points, he'd be in that 1.7% bucket.
7:27But 1.7% is an insanely small number. For the backs who had target shares between 5% and 10%, that number jumps up to 21%.
7:3521% of those players outperform ADP expectation by two or more points per game.
7:39For the guys with target shares above 10%, the rate of outperforming expectation by two or more points per game is 43%.
7:47And when you talk about ceiling, I mean, forget about the guys who don't catch passes.
7:52When looking at middle round running backs who exceed expectation by six or more points per game, which are like the true
8:00league winning players from the middle rounds, none of them out of the 59 with sub 5% target shares got there.
8:07Meanwhile, just 2% of the 104 running backs with a 5 to 10% target share per game rate, just 2% of them got there.
8:15But then almost 16% of the backs who had a 10% target share per game rate or better were able to outperform
8:22expectation by six or more PPR points per game.
8:25Look, middle round running backs have this really wide range of possible target share outcomes.
8:30There are so many archetypes of running backs in that area of your draft.
8:35And that makes for a larger discrepancy in outcome when it comes to target share.
8:40So the clear trend here is that you basically only want to target pass catchers in the middle rounds of your draft.
8:47But again, saying that is one thing. Actually having a tool to find it is another.
8:53Now you can look at previous season target share to get a decent idea.
8:57But that's a bigger and better idea for early round running backs.
9:01Why? Because early round running backs generally have a season under their belt.
9:06That's why they're being drafted in the early rounds.
9:09With middle round guys, you'll have players who were like part-time players the year prior.
9:14And they're being drafted as an RB3 because maybe they showed us something.
9:18Or maybe they're in an ambiguous backfield where the backfield appears split.
9:22The middle rounds are full of running backs who are unknowns.
9:26While the early rounds, they're not. That's basically what I'm getting at here.
9:30And why simply looking at how previous season target share is correlated to outperforming expectation in the early rounds is more impactful than the middle rounds.
9:39In the middle rounds, you're better off looking at previous season yards per route run.
9:44Now going back to our sample of 233 middle round running backs, 167 of them were coming off seasons where they had run 100 or more routes.
9:53And shout out PFF for the routes run data.
9:56So essentially, we're starting with 233 running backs, but then we're removing a chunk of them because they either didn't get enough
10:04run as a receiver in the previous season, or they were rookies.
10:08I then grouped those 167 backs into four buckets.
10:11You could think of them as tier A, tier B, tier C, and tier D, and yards per route run.
10:17And that's previous season yards per route run. Tier A is the best group, tier B is the second best, and so on.
10:25Now tier A is designated by running backs who hit a 1.7 yards per route run rate in their previous season or above.
10:33It's arbitrary, but it gives us a decent enough sample to work with.
10:3725 running backs did that after hitting 100 routes run in their previous season.
10:42Tier B is 1.2 to 1.7 yards per route run.
10:45Tier C is 0.7 to 1.2. And then tier D, the worst group, is less than 0.7 yards per route run in
10:53that N-1 season, or the previous season. Tier B has 52 running backs in it.
10:58Tier C has 64. And tier D has 26.
11:01So we have four groups that are formed by previous season yards per route run.
11:06Now get this, of the 26 running backs who had a sub 0.7 yards per route run rate in their N-1 season
11:13that previous season, just 8% of them exceeded ADP expectation the following year by two or more PPR points per game.
11:20Every other group was at least 24%, so three times the rate of tier D.
11:25Meanwhile, not a single one of the 26 running backs from tier D exceeded expectation by six or more points per game.
11:33Not a single one of them had a monstrously high ceiling.
11:36Now on the flip side, the best upside rates, they come from tier A.
11:4124% of them exceeded expectation by four or more PPR points per game.
11:45That's seven percentage points better than any other group.
11:4812% of them outperform expectation by six or more PPR points per game.
11:53That's nearly double any other group. To put this another way, previous season yards per route run can at least directionally get
12:00us closer to hitting on running backs in the middle rounds.
12:04And for the record, this all comes down to target share.
12:07Since 2014, we haven't seen a single tier D running back get to a 10% target share per game rate.
12:14Meaning, they have some sort of yards per route run rate below .7 in one season.
12:20And then the following season, they fail to reach a 10% target share.
12:24And as we just discussed, a 10% target share means a lot out of the middle rounds.
12:30Now of course, a lot of those players just didn't have high target shares in the previous season to begin with.
12:37In previous season target share, that can be helpful too.
12:40It's just that statistically, yards per route run for middle round running backs is more helpful.
12:45And not only that, but this is not just for the extremes.
12:50This is not just looking at players who had really low yards per route run rates or players who had really high ones.
12:57Even guys who had .7 to 1.2 yards per route run rates, they only hit a 10% target share the following season at about a 19% rate.
13:06There were 19 of those tier C players who had target shares of 10% or better in their N-1 season, their previous season.
13:14So they hit a 10% target share per game rate in one year, they ran 100 plus routes that year, and they
13:21had a yards per route run rate of .7 to 1.2.
13:25Then they played eight games the following year. Of those 19 with pretty low yards per route run rates and a 10%
13:33target share, only five of them had a target share per game rate above 10% the following year.
13:39You would think something like that might be a little bit stickier, but it's not as sticky when the back is ineffective per route run.
13:47And just to be totally clear, yards per route run is something that you can look at across all rounds of your draft.
13:55It just seems to be the most meaningful when things are most up in the air, which is the middle rounds.
14:02Like I said, in the early rounds, most players will have a high target share projection.
14:07In the late rounds, most players are just going to kind of suck for fantasy purposes.
14:13In the middle rounds, you get a wide variety of usable players.
14:17And this all works in both directions. If a player had a low yards per route run rate, then he has a
14:24better chance to not see an uptick in target share the following year.
14:28If it's high though, then he's going to have better odds of getting to that 10% target share mark.
14:35And then these players are going to have better or worse odds at exceeding ADP expectation as well, which is the most important thing.
14:43Now, the obvious question based on all this information is who should we be targeting and who should we be avoiding in 2025?
14:50And I want to say, none of this is foolproof.
14:54You shouldn't just take one metric and full on fade a player based on one metric.
14:59This is all about probability and improving our probability of hitting on some of these players.
15:05But funny enough, the main middle round running back this year who had a sweet yards per route run rate last year was David Montgomery.
15:13Now, there are many reasons why his situation is just simply unique.
15:17So, I don't know if this is super actionable for him, but it's still interesting.
15:22But there's also Austin Eckler. ADP sources may not have him quite in the middle round range, but he's at least around it.
15:30And regardless of where you are in your draft, like I've been saying, yards per route run does seem to matter to some degree.
15:38He was literally at 1.694 last year. He was .001 yards away from hitting our relatively arbitrary 1.7 threshold.
15:44Now, I mentioned Eckler on becoming a best ball bro, but the gap between him and Brian Robinson, in my opinion, shouldn't
15:52be nearly as wide as it is. Now, on the other end of things, there are three backs to call out.
15:59Jordan Mason is one of them. He had a .54 yards per route run rate last year.
16:04And remember, players below that .7 mark have not hit a 10% target share the following season since at least 2014.
16:11But it's Jordan Mason, then it's Ramondre Stevenson, who likely won't get there now with Travion Henderson in New England.
16:18And then there's one surprising player. It's Chuba Hubbard.
16:21Now, Hubbard technically is like on the fringe of being an early round pick versus a middle round one.
16:28But to reiterate, it's not like these trends cease to exist when you hit RB19.
16:33It's just that we gradually can shift our focus to different things.
16:37Hubbard has never been a beast in yards per route run.
16:40He actually had just a .79 yards per route run rate in 2023.
16:45That led the following year to almost a 12% target share per game rate.
16:49So he wasn't a tier D running back, but he wasn't far off.
16:54But I'm probably going to be more bearish than bullish in 2025.
16:58We rarely see, in fact, we haven't seen since 2014, a running back with this low of a previous season yards per
17:05route run rate see a high target share the following season.
17:09And they haven't given us any league winning seasons either.
17:12And look at what the Panthers did this offseason.
17:15They added Rico Dowdle. He can play a pass catching role.
17:19And they drafted Trevor Etienne, who's a pass catching back.
17:22There's definitely a scenario here where Chuba Hubbard isn't used quite as much as a pass catcher here in 2025.
17:29And if that happens, that's not good news for his ability to outperform cost.
17:34There are some others who are more fringe, and I break things down more in the draft guide, but those are the
17:41big ones to watch out with this research. Now look, it's not that yards per route run is this perfect running back stat.
17:49It's not. We see research done all the time on which stats correlate to next season success.
17:55And that research is obviously really helpful to this game that we all love.
17:59And running back yards per route run, it probably won't rank very high on that list of metrics to focus on.
18:06But what's missing from that analysis is what's actually being captured and what isn't being captured by the market.
18:13Some statistics like touchdown rate at quarterback, some stats see really poor correlation year over year.
18:18We shouldn't be drafting players based on previous season touchdown rate.
18:22But because the market actually seems to do that, then we can lean into it too because we know how to spot values then.
18:30That's what I talked about a couple of weeks ago on that touchdown rate episode.
18:35We're doing the same thing here, except we're targeting the statistic.
18:39Because to this day, gamers are just still undervaluing pass catching at running back.
18:43And this is one way to increase your odds in hitting on that league winning pass catching back.
18:49Okay, now that you heard all that, you're undoubtedly wondering which running backs have red flags associated with their profiles this year here in 2026.
18:58And maybe which ones have green flags. Looking at Fantasy Pro's current ADP, I'll look specifically at RB19 to RB42.
19:05Again, middle round running backs. There really aren't that many elite yards per hour run profiles in the middle rounds this year.
19:12But the best one out there belongs to Jalen Warren, who was at 1.58 last year according to PFF data.
19:19Kenneth Gainwells is pretty close to that, but Bucky Irving currently RB19, his was pretty much the exact same.
19:25And they're obviously in the same backfield this year.
19:28So on the good side, Jalen Warren does stand out at least a little bit.
19:33I don't think that alone makes him a great value or a target, but it certainly gives him a little bit of a boost.
19:41Now on the bad side, there's a lot to get through.
19:45Javante Williams technically isn't in that middle round bucket this year because he's the RB18.
19:50But I do think his 0.40 yards per hour run from last year is worrisome.
19:55Fortunately for him, that depth chart looks really bad behind him.
19:59So it may not totally impact him. It's not like Chuba Hubbard last year, where we had a pretty decent back in Rico Dowdle backing him up.
20:08Some of you will probably want me to point out Bashal Tootin, who is at 0.9 in yards per hour run.
20:15But Tootin didn't run 100 routes last year. His data point really isn't that reliable.
20:20Chris Rodriguez, his top competition who's also a middle round pick technically, he didn't get there either.
20:25And his yards per hour run was pretty miserable at 0.34, albeit in a different situation.
20:31Now technically Blake Corum and J.K. Dobbins fall into this category with really low yards per hour run rates of 0.31 and 0.32.
20:39But they barely were over that 100 route mark.
20:42We once again had Jordan Mason, who had a 0.32 yards per hour run rate last year.
20:47He's just not a pass catcher. He's never been a great pass catcher.
20:52I wouldn't expect that to change here in 2026.
20:55Now something kind of interesting on this list, Rashad White, who's now in Washington.
20:59He had his worst yards per hour run rate of his career last year at 0.72 on over 300 routes run.
21:06Bucky Irving was significantly better in the same offense.
21:10Now White's in Washington, and Ja'Cory Krosky-Merritt, his yards per hour run was also miserable last year at 0.49 on 140 routes.
21:17So there's not obvious competition to take some of those looks from Rashad White.
21:22And I'm definitely concerned about Krosky-Merritt. Now another player to call out, Kyle Menungay.
21:26I think Menungay's in that like Blake Corum bucket, as I said on the late round show, where I like him and
21:34I like Corum and best ball, where we don't have to choose when those big weeks are going to happen, and then they have that injury upside.
21:43But I think for both of those guys without an injury, we probably won't see huge receiving numbers.
21:49Tony Pollard is an even bigger red flag this year than he was last year.
21:54His yards per hour run was 0.68 last year.
21:57That was the worst of his career, so I'm pretty nervous about him in 2026.
22:02And then the final call out, Travion Henderson. 238 routes run, 0.93 yards per hour run.
22:07That's not soundly alarms territory, but we'd rather have a little bit higher of a number.
22:13So if I were to sum up the negative side, the red flag side, I'd say Blake Corum and Kyle Menungay, they
22:20both look like split backfield running backs who won't see a big uptick in receiving work.
22:25But with their current contingent upside, there's still not bad picks in best ball.
22:30Just not as much in your managed league. Ja'Cory Krosky-Merritt didn't have a super well-rounded receiving profile as a prospect, and it didn't translate in year one.
22:39So that's a problem. Jordan Mason continues to be someone who doesn't fit my process very well, similar to last year.
22:46And then Tony Pollard, I just don't think he's a high upside selection.
22:51And yeah, I think this data does point to us pumping the brakes a little bit, assuming there's going to be some massive change in New England.
23:00There's more bad than good here because we're talking about lower tiered running backs, lower tiered starters.
23:05But if we approach these profiles with the right kind of caution, it can give us a little bit of an edge.
23:13That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
23:17If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are researching for it.
23:23Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
23:30Thanks for listening, everyone. I'll be back with the Late Round show on Wednesday at noon Eastern on YouTube.
23:36And then it's a mailbag week. So I'll talk to you with that on Friday.
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