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0:57This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
1:01What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharysen in this episode 1125 of the The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
1:07Thanks for tuning in. We've got week one in the books.
1:10Hopefully you guys got some W's. But it's time to fix our rosters.
1:15Because no roster is perfect right now. As usual, this show is all about who to add, drop, buy and sell.
1:21And the transactions, they're in no particular order. Simply because your needs could be totally different than someone else's.
1:28But I'll try to give some context as to which players I'm prioritizing and not prioritizing on waivers.
1:34Now before we get to this week two transactions list, I do want to remind you guys to check out LateRound.com.
1:41We've got brand new offerings this year for members.
1:44There's a much better interface for the weekly and rest of season rankings.
1:48There's new metrics in the data dump and so much more.
1:52You can learn more about it over on LateRound.com.
1:54Add Kalon Black. I think one of the most surprising things that we saw from week one usage wise was how the 49ers backfield was divvied up.
2:03Not only was Jordan James a healthy scratch against the Rams, but Kalon Black got a decent amount of work.
2:10He finished week one with a 44% snap rate and he saw 47% of the 49ers rushes.
2:16Christian McCaffrey had a 33% rush share. Now to be clear, the work that Kalon Black saw on week one wasn't totally usable for fantasy football purposes.
2:25He scored 8 PPR points. His expected points based on LateRound Fantasy Football's expected fantasy points formula was 7.4.
2:31And that formula just looks at usage. It looks at where these players are getting their touches and how many points we'd
2:38expect them to score based on those touches. So Kalon Black was at 7.4 expected fantasy points.
2:44That's nothing special. Not only that, but it was reported that CMC was dealing with cramps.
2:49That could have led to a slight uptick in work for Kalon Black.
2:53But look, maybe once bye weeks start hitting, you could flex Kalon Black.
2:57And at the very least, he does look like the top handcuff in San Francisco.
3:02He would at least be the 1A in that backfield if something were to happen to Christian McCaffrey.
3:08This is just a situation that you do want to invest in.
3:12San Francisco not only looked good in week one, but we know this offense has been good, especially with Brock Purdy under center.
3:20So it makes sense to add Black this week.
3:23By Colston Loveland. If you invested in Colston Loveland, you're probably not feeling that great after week one.
3:29Because you could have started any other tight end and probably gotten more points than what you got with Loveland.
3:35Because he gave you a giant goose egg. And that was a big surprise.
3:40The Bears posted 59 points against the Panthers. They scored 59 points and Colston Loveland scored 0 fantasy points.
3:46I know no one wants to hear this after the Terrence Ferguson talk last week.
3:51But production in fantasy football can be very fluky.
3:54This is why we look at peripherals. Weird games can happen.
3:58But if the peripherals are there, good production will eventually follow.
4:01That's how this works. And in week one, Colston Loveland had an 87% route share.
4:06He ran 33 routes. That was 8 more routes than any other Bears player.
4:11Dating back to the beginning of last year, we've had almost 180 tight end games where the player hit at least an 80% route share.
4:19Over half of those games resulted in 10 or more PPR points.
4:23Loveland's 0 in week one was just the fifth time over this time frame.
4:28So since the beginning of 2025, where a tight end failed to score a point.
4:33Cardio Kate Otten has two of those five instances.
4:36Now beyond route share, Loveland did see a couple of targets.
4:39And Caleb Williams just missed him in the end zone.
4:43If that throw connects, there's a totally different narrative more than likely about Colston Loveland this week.
4:48And this really doesn't stem from some preseason take for me because I wasn't high or low on Loveland entering the season.
4:56I love them as a player, but from a game theory perspective, I often wait on tight end.
5:02But this could be a buying opportunity for one of the best up-and-coming tight end prospects that we've had in recent memory.
5:09If you can really buy low, I think you should really buy low.
5:13Hold the Los Angeles Chargers offense. I liked the Chargers offense entering the season.
5:18A lot of us like the Chargers offense entering the season.
5:21And things could not have been that much worse in week one.
5:25They put up only 14 points against the Arizona Cardinals.
5:29It was really bad. And we shouldn't spin it any other way.
5:33But I'm probably going to say this time and time again over the first month of the season.
5:38Being patient is the number one thing to be in fantasy football.
5:42It's not that uncommon to see teams with new offensive coordinators struggle out of the gate.
5:48And not only that, but Ladd McConkie got hurt at the end of the third quarter in that game.
5:54That played a role here too. Before McConkie's injury, the Chargers had an EPA per play rate of .05.
6:00Their yards per play was 5.7. In the fourth quarter, after the McConkie injury, their EPA per play fell to minus .44.
6:08Their yards per play dropped to just 4.0. The offensive line was kind of a problem for the Chargers too, especially the interior offensive line.
6:16Their yards before contact per rush was third worst in the league in week one.
6:21But again, let's just give it a little bit of time for this line to click and for this offense to click.
6:28So this is all just to say don't give up just yet.
6:32Don't forget, the Patriots last year, they lost week one to the Raiders.
6:36Drake May was like QB 18 in fantasy football.
6:39There's enough talent in LA to turn things around pretty quickly.
6:43Add Debo Samuel and Demarcus Robinson. So Dajon Stribling, he's going to miss a decent chunk of time with an ankle injury.
6:50And it's a big deal because before that injury happened, he was leading the 49ers in routes run.
6:56Every pass catcher in this offense gets a hypothetical bump.
6:59But obviously Mike Evans is not sitting on your waiver wire.
7:03And chances are, Debo Samuel's not either. But he is still available in over half of Yahoo!
7:09Leagues. So I've got to shout him out. In deeper formats though, you could look at Demarcus Robinson.
7:14Prior to Stribling's injury, it was on a relatively small sample.
7:18But prior to that injury, Debo Samuel had a 42% route share.
7:22Demarcus Robinson was at 26%. After the injury, Robinson led all 49ers with a 77% route share.
7:28Samuel's was about 59%. It wouldn't surprise me if the 49ers were kind of resting Debo towards the end of that game.
7:35But regardless, I think all that's still noteworthy. Samuel finished week 1 with 13.3 expected PPR points.
7:41That would be really solid if he could maintain that throughout the season.
7:45Robinson wasn't quite as high at 8.7, but he did see a couple of end zone targets.
7:50And we know he's going to get more run without Stribling.
7:54And GameScript could easily favor a more pass-heavy approach for San Francisco moving forward.
7:59So I think both of them, they work off the waiver wire this week.
8:03I would prioritize Debo Samuel though, if he is out there.
8:07Sell Chuba Hubbard. So entering week 1, the Panthers said there wouldn't be any limitations with Jonathan Brooks against the Bears.
8:14And maybe that was the case. Maybe there wasn't any limitation.
8:18Maybe we're just going to see this backfield dominated by Chuba Hubbard.
8:21To me, that's probably not going to be the case though.
8:25But look, in week 1, the backfield was mostly Chuba Hubbard's.
8:29He finished with a 69% snap share. Jonathan Brooks was just shy of 20%.
8:33Hubbard ran around on 51% of Carolina's dropbacks. Brooks had just a 12% route share.
8:38The thing is, even if that usage continues, we shouldn't expect what we saw in week 1 to just keep happening with Hubbard.
8:46According to our expected fantasy points formula, Hubbard outperformed expectation by 10 PPR points on Sunday.
8:51His expected fantasy total was 13.7 points. Which is fine.
8:54That's a solid number if he maintained that all season long.
8:58But it was nowhere close to the 23.7 points that he actually posted.
9:02I'd imagine we're going to see more Jonathan Brooks as the season moves forward.
9:07And if 13.7 points is more or less the expectation in a backfield that leaned this heavily towards Chuba Hubbard, then I
9:14question what his ceiling would actually look like consistently.
9:17So with Hubbard coming off a big game, I think it's worth seeing if you can sell him.
9:23Add Devon Vele. So I try not to repeat transactions week over week, but there are a few this week that I have to repeat.
9:31And one of those is with Devon Vele. It was a really bad first half for the Saints offense against the Lions.
9:39But thankfully, they came through. And they got that extra time, which really helped their fantasy production.
9:44They ran more plays than any other team in week 1.
9:48Now the plays run thing, that's not anything new.
9:51Kellen Moore's offenses, they run at a fast pace.
9:54They were the fastest paced offense in week 1.
9:57And despite their inefficiency last season, the Saints still ranked 11th in plays run in total.
10:02But no, we can't look at week 1 and just look at raw totals for this offense and assume that's going to
10:09happen in week 2, week 3, and so on.
10:12Those numbers were definitely inflated. But we should note that New Orleans is going to be close to the top of the
10:20league in seconds per play this year. They're a fast-paced team.
10:23They run a lot of plays. But regardless of all that, let's just look at the rate stats.
10:29The usage within the context of this team. That's where Vele looks like a workable piece in fantasy football.
10:35In week 1, he led the Saints in routes run.
10:39He had a 17% target share. His expected fantasy total sat at nearly 16 points.
10:44He exceeded that expectation by 4. The general usage was there.
10:47Even if you cut the Saints week 1 play volume by like 20% moving forward, Vele's usage would still translate to roughly 13 PPR points per game.
10:56And then that could obviously change when Jordan Tyson's back.
10:59The Saints get a tough matchup this week against the Ravens, but then it's the Raiders and Falcons in weeks 3 and 4.
11:07So Devon Vele should be rostered. Add Dontavian Wicks.
11:10So like I said, there's going to be some repeat transactions week over week.
11:15We just talked about Devon Vele. Now we're going to talk about Dontavian Wicks.
11:19Wicks had a nice debut for the Eagles. He scored 15.3 PPR points.
11:24His peripherals, they weren't that bad either. 79% route share.
11:2718% target share. He tied Devontae Smith and Air Yards.
11:30Now Makai Lemon ran the same number of routes as Wicks, but his average depth of target was literally 0 yards.
11:37Wicks was closer to 20 yards. Lemon played more out of the slot, which was predictable.
11:42Wicks was more of an outside threat. So to put that another way, this is exactly what we thought was going to
11:50happen with their deployment here in week 1. Wicks was a perimeter wide receiver and he was getting down the field.
11:57That kind of profile should probably be rostered in most 12 team leagues.
12:01We shouldn't expect week 1 to happen each week.
12:04He outperformed expectation, but it's the type of usage that should be at least sitting on your bench.
12:10By Jamison Williams. Williams didn't come through with a big fantasy performance in week 1.
12:15He actually made some bad plays. If you go back and you watch that Lions game, it wasn't pretty for Jamison Williams.
12:22He left a lot on the table. His actual PPR total sat at 8.5 points.
12:27His expected number was 18.5. He was one of the biggest underachievers in week 1.
12:32And that's part of the reason that we should be really bullish.
12:36Not only did he see a 23% target share, but he wasn't just out there running a bunch of go routes.
12:43In fact, over the last two seasons, he's had go route rates of 28% and 23%.
12:48In week 1, that number was just 14%. Meanwhile, we want more of those intermediate crossing routes where Jamison Williams can just catch the ball and run.
12:57In week 1, 22% of his routes were crossers.
13:00That number had been closer to 15% over the last two seasons.
13:04So yes, Jamison Williams, he had a bad week 1.
13:07It was not a good outing for him, both in real and fantasy football.
13:12But he still had a 23% target share, his route deployment, it might be shifting in a favorable direction, and he's got a really solid schedule moving forward.
13:21This is a really, really good buy low opportunity.
13:24Add DeMario Douglas and Matt Collins. So with A.J.
13:27Brown now sidelined, the Patriots offense, honestly, it's probably going to look a lot like what we saw last year.
13:34And to be honest, that makes adding DeMario Douglas and Matt Collins a lot less appetizing.
13:39It's not like we were super excited about starting them last year.
13:43Maybe we see a little bit of a change though.
13:46One area where that might happen is with their heavy personnel deployment.
13:50In 2025, the Patriots ran out of 12 and 13 personnel at the 22nd highest rate in the league.
13:56That's despite the fact that they ran the most plays in the league by far with a lead.
14:02A situation where we might expect to see more heavy personnel usage for the run game.
14:08But with Eli Raritan now in the mix, the Patriots might go a little bit heavier this year.
14:13And that's why I think Matt Collins, he's probably my preferred target out of these two.
14:19DeMario Douglas led the Patriots in routes run last week.
14:22By default, I think a lot of people are going to say, go add Douglas.
14:27And he's fine to look at off the waiver wire.
14:30I'm not saying this is a 100 to 0 type thing.
14:34This is like a 55-45 situation. The thing with Douglas is that every single one of his routes run came out of 11 personnel.
14:42He's a slot player. We know the ceiling isn't crazy for DeMario Douglas.
14:46Meanwhile, Matt Collins, he's a perimeter guy. He could be on the field with Romeo Dobbs if the Patriots do move to more heavy personnel.
14:54So I'm shouting both of these players out. I think they can be added this week.
15:00It's not the bulkiest waiver wire week that we've ever seen.
15:03But if there's one that I'm going to choose, I'm going to slightly, slightly lean towards Matt Collins.
15:09Add Caleb Douglas. So similar to that transaction that I just talked about, it's tough for me to get really, really excited about Caleb Douglas.
15:17Mostly because of the situation. And honestly, I could talk about Malik Washington here too.
15:22I'm going with Caleb Douglas though, because he's more of an unknown commodity.
15:27He also outproduced Washington in week one, despite Washington having a 95% route share to Douglas's 84%.
15:32Washington had eight targets and Douglas had seven. Chris Bell to me still has the most upside of any wide receiver on this Dolphins team.
15:41He had the most complete age-adjusted collegiate production profile.
15:44Does that model like Chris Bell more than it like Caleb Douglas?
15:48Bell's just coming off a serious knee injury. His route share in week one was only 49%.
15:53I would expect that to rise week over week.
15:56And let's just be real. The Dolphins are more than likely not going to be incredibly fantasy relevant offensively this year, especially through the air.
16:04They lost the Raiders and they ran 84% of their offensive plays while trailing in that game.
16:10Even with that game script, their pass attempt total ranked outside the top 20 in the league.
16:16Now their pass rate was higher, but they weren't that efficient.
16:19So they didn't run a lot of plays. That could be a problem all season long.
16:24But if you need someone to take a chance on over the next few weeks from this wide receiver room, I think
16:32Caleb Douglas is the safest, most reasonable bet based on week one's usage.
16:36And then Chris Bell just continues to be that stash candidate.
16:40Buy Matthew Golden. Matthew Golden had a really solid week one.
16:43He scored 15.5 PPR points. He had six catches for 95 yards.
16:47But when you look under the hood, it looks even better.
16:51Golden had awesome usage in week one. We knew this was possible given the lack of wide receiver depth in Green Bay.
16:58As I said on last week's Sleepers episode, Golden was going to get every opportunity to prove himself.
17:04And so far, so good. Christian Watson got all the glory from a production standpoint in week one.
17:10But Golden led the Packers with an 87% route share and a 30% target share.
17:15He also led the team in air yards. That led to an expected PPR point total of 23.3, which is not only
17:22the highest on the Packers, but it was the second highest among wide receivers through Sunday's games.
17:28Something that I talked about this summer was how the Packers could be more pass-heavy this year.
17:33They have a poor run-blocking offensive line, Josh Jacobs has the off-the-field stuff, and there's a potentially questionable defense.
17:40Jordan Love has also been one of the best quarterbacks by EPA per play over the last couple of seasons.
17:46In week one, Green Bay was more middle-of-the-road and pass rate over-expected, which is honestly an improvement for them.
17:53But with the way that that game played out, Jordan Love threw the ball 42 times.
17:58He's only hit 42 pass attempts three other times in his NFL career.
18:02And I'm not sitting here saying, hey, look at me.
18:05I knew the Packers were going to throw the ball more.
18:09That's not what this is about at all. It's to say that there's at least some chance that this passing volume in week one was not fluky.
18:18Maybe they will be more pass-heavy this year. And maybe this is just the start of that.
18:24I mean, all that pass rate stuff was part of the reason I had Christian Watson as a bye last week.
18:30So if that's the case, if this really is a good passing offense this year, which we don't know for sure right
18:38now, we're just trying to forecast and look at range of outcomes.
18:42But if that's the case, with Matthew Golden and his week one usage, we're talking about an 87% route share and a 30% target share.
18:50That could go a very, very long way. And even the managers who have Matthew Golden in fantasy, they may not be fully aware of that.
18:59Add Kenyon Sadiq. So this is the last repeat transaction week over week, but I got to shout out Sadiq.
19:05He continues to just be undervalued by the fantasy community, in my opinion, because the upside case is clearly there.
19:12In week one, he had a 46% route share against the Titans.
19:16He had a 13% target share. That's nothing special.
19:19Nothing special on paper. He did find the end zone though on a rush.
19:23His athleticism is going to allow the Jets to get creative close to the end zone.
19:29To me, week one was just a sign that things could get better for Kenyon Sadiq.
19:34He missed camp with a sports hernia issue. Expecting him to go nuts in week one, no one should have expected that.
19:41No one should have expected Kenyon Sadiq to have amazing usage right away.
19:45The fact that he still got some work and he was still productive, that's a really good sign that better things could be coming.
19:53Because again, he didn't do anything in camp or the preseason as a 21 year old rookie.
19:59I've said this before. I'll say it again. He's an uber athlete at tight end, who was drafted in the middle of
20:06the first round, and he's still only 21 years old.
20:09With Kenyon Sadiq, sure, there might be a scary floor because of the Jets offense, and maybe he doesn't hit.
20:16But you can't tell me there isn't an upside case here.
20:20And with tight ends, specifically tight ends off the waiver wire, I really do want that upside case.
20:26Add Pat Friermuth. So it's kind of funny that I just talked about the upside case, and then now I'm talking about Pat Friermuth.
20:34But honestly, his usage in week one was not that bad.
20:37He probably doesn't have the same kind of upside that Kenyon Sadiq has.
20:41But in week one, he had a 74% route share and a 14% target share.
20:46According to our numbers, Friermuth was sixth among tight ends who played through Sunday and expected fantasy points.
20:52The Steelers also ran 58% of their offensive plays out of 11 personnel.
20:57Last year, that number was 38%. They pushed the ball downfield too.
21:01Aaron Rodgers had his highest average at the target as a Pittsburgh Steeler on Sunday.
21:06If those trends continue, it could open things up a little bit for Pat Friermuth in this offense as the pass catching tight end.
21:13He's not the most exciting add this week, but his week one usage was pretty great.
21:19Add Denzel Boston. So I'm not sure how reliable this Cleveland passing attack is going to be this year.
21:25Probably not very reliable. But there should be some pass heavy scripts attached to this team.
21:30In week one against Jacksonville, the Browns ran 90% of their offensive plays while trailing by seven or more points.
21:37They're already big underdogs in week two. Denzel Boston had a nice touchdown in his NFL debut.
21:42He led the Browns with an 84% route share.
21:45I still think Casey Concepcion is the preferred rookie there, but my general rule of thumb early on in the season is
21:53to not leave a young unknown player on the waiver wire who already showed us a little something, whether it be through production or through peripherals.
22:01And we saw something from Boston in week one.
22:04He wasn't an amazing prospect in my eyes, but he definitely wasn't a bad one at all.
22:10Let's just hope the quarterback situation can get straightened out even just a little bit.
22:15Add the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. We're going to be targeting the Cleveland Browns a lot this year for our streaming defenses.
22:22Next up, we have Tampa Bay. The Bucs are eight and a half point favorites against Cleveland this week, and it's already
22:29been announced that Deshaun Watson is going to start for the Browns.
22:33The Browns offense saw the fifth highest pressure rate in the league in week one, and Watson was second worst in pressure to sack ratio.
22:42The only quarterback who was worse was Cooper Rush.
22:45The Buccaneers defense is a very, very easy choice.
22:47I've got a bonus transaction for you this week.
22:50It's to add Pat Bryant. So full disclosure, I record this episode on Monday, and then the Monday night game happens, and
22:58sometimes I have to add a transaction because something happens in that game.
23:02And in this case, that's something happening is Pat Bryant.
23:05He was actually an interesting pick this year. He was actually a late round dart throw in the draft guide.
23:12But he has some obvious competition on the Broncos.
23:15But in week one, he played a decent role in the offense.
23:19Through three quarters of play when that game was competitive, Bryant had a 65% route share.
23:24He was only two or three routes behind Jalen Waddell and Cortland Sutton.
23:28And then he doubled them up in targets. He had a 29% target share against the Chiefs.
23:34And you would think the Broncos offense would be better moving forward.
23:38They were absolutely horrible on Monday night. So if they are a little bit better moving forward, then Pat Bryant could actually be pretty usable.
23:46But that's it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening.
23:51If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
23:59And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
24:04Thanks for listening, everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly 10 trends episode.
24:09Today, we tip our wrench to Rock Auto customer Dylan.
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24:17And we would get stuff from Rock Auto if I couldn't get it from my dealership suppliers.
24:22You pick the year, you go through all the drop-down menus, and it just makes it really easy to navigate and see what you want.
24:30Like a wheel bearing, for instance, for a Corvair that I have.
24:34Rock Auto's catalog made it really easy to find that specific one that I was looking for.
24:40All the parts your car will ever need, Rock Auto.
24:43This episode is supported by FX's The Drop, a snowfall saga.
24:47Wanda and Leon are back, but this time they're chasing a different kind of legacy.
24:52As West Coast rap begins to take over 90s Los Angeles, Wanda is betting on a new generation of artists.
24:58But in a city where every opportunity comes with a price, they'll have to decide what they're willing to risk to leave their mark.
25:06FX's The Drop. Now streaming on Hulu. This is an iHeart Podcast.
25:10Guaranteed Human.