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0:44JJ Zacharyarysen. What's up, everyone? It's J.J. Zacharysen. And in this episode 1120 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
0:52Bold prediction pieces are really popular. People love consuming them.
0:55Because it allows us, especially an analyst like myself, to really stop thinking in range of outcomes.
1:01I can just think about a single outcome. The problem I've always had with bold predictions content, though, is that they're often not totally based in reality.
1:10So with this episode each year and with the newsletter that I send out, I attempt to explain the why.
1:17I genuinely think that all the predictions that I talk about are very possible.
1:22Maybe that means some of them aren't quite as hot takey as you'll see elsewhere.
1:27But I do think just because it's bold predictions content doesn't mean that we can't learn something.
1:33So on today's show, I'm bringing you 10 bold predictions for this upcoming fantasy football season.
1:38Realistic bold predictions. Bold predictions that I genuinely think could come true.
1:42Of course, only some of them are going to hit.
1:46I'm usually happy if like 5 or 6 of them do.
1:49But that doesn't mean that they aren't possible. No, I've got 5 additional predictions that I'm sending out in the Late Round newsletter on Wednesday.
1:58So make sure you subscribe there. You can head to lateroound.com, click newsletter, and subscribe for absolutely free.
2:04There's also the Late Round draft guide that you can check out while you're there.
2:09But without further ado, let's get the bold prediction number 1.
2:13Terry McLaurin and Stefan Diggs will both finish as top 24 wide receivers.
2:17This one's bold because according to Fantasy Pro's consensus average draft position, neither player is being drafted inside the top 24 at the position.
2:25And Stefan Diggs is well outside the top 24.
2:28These guys are also teammates and that could limit their individual ceilings.
2:32But here's why this could happen. Teammates finishing together as wide receiver twos in Fantasy, it's not as uncommon as you might think.
2:40Since 2011, we've averaged about 4.5 teammate pairings finishing in the top 24 together per year.
2:45And this year, one of them could be Washington.
2:48Obviously, we like Dallas, we like Cincinnati, but why not Washington?
2:52I'm just not convinced that these two older wide receivers are cooked.
2:56Terry McLaurin is coming off a season where he posted the best per route run numbers of his entire career.
3:03Stefan Diggs last year, he ranked 10th in yards per outrun, and his targets per outrun rate ranked in the 90th percentile.
3:10Look, I really do like Antonio Williams, and I'm excited for what he might be able to do in the NFL.
3:18But overall, this Washington offense lacks pass-catching firepower. And with McLaurin stretching the field, Stefan Diggs playing more underneath, a high percentage
3:25of the team's targets could just be funneled to these two wide receivers.
3:29And if this David Blau offense is better than advertised, this prediction can definitely come true.
3:35Both Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown will outscore Jonathan Taylor.
3:38This one's bold because Taylor's locked in as a first-round pick.
3:42Walker and Brown, they're more second-rounders. Here's why this can happen, though.
3:46The Colts were so good to start last season.
3:49They were first in the NFL in points per drive, first in drives, ending in touchdowns, and first by a wide margin
3:56in percentage of touchdowns that came via the ground through week 10.
4:01It was the perfect storm for Jonathan Taylor. Through 10 weeks, the Colts had run just 11% of their offensive plays while trailing by 7 or more points.
4:10That was the second lowest rate in the league.
4:13That's just tough production to bank on year over year.
4:16And Jonathan Taylor, he needs those positive scripts to really hit a massive ceiling.
4:21That's what we've seen historically. I talked about this on the Late Round Podcast with Rich Rebar not long ago, but Taylor's
4:29had some of the most extreme win-loss splits of any running back in fantasy football.
4:34Even last year, during those first 10 games, he averaged 31.5 PPR points per game in wins.
4:39That fell to just over 11 points per game and their two losses.
4:44Over the last three years, Taylor's averaged 13.7 PPR points per game in losses.
4:49He's averaged 11 more points per game in wins.
4:52So what I'm basically saying here is that Taylor's profile is a little bit more fragile than the market's making it seem.
4:59Indianapolis' current win total is 7.5. Their top wide receiver has not been healthy and their quarterback is coming off an Achilles injury.
5:07Meanwhile, Chase Brown averaged 21 PPR points per game last year with Joe Burrow.
5:12He's been one of the best pass-catching backs in football over the last couple of years.
5:17Kenneth Walker is moving to a Chiefs team that faced the fewest stacked boxes in football a year ago.
5:23And even with Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco, they were top 10 in success rate.
5:28Just a slight bump in receiving usage for Kenneth Walker could take him to the moon in fantasy football.
5:35All three of these backs should be drafted high.
5:38But if the Colts take a step back offensively this year, it's not that crazy to think that both Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker could outscore Jonathan Taylor.
5:47Luther Burden will be a top 10 dynasty wide receiver by the end of the season.
5:53This one's bold. It's obviously more of a dynasty take, but it's bold because Burden's ADP on keep trade cut is currently wide receiver 17.
6:01Here's why it could happen though. There's a very real chance, and I've thrown this take out there before, but there's a
6:09very real chance that Roma Dunze is a better traditional wide receiver than Luther Burden is.
6:14But to me, Burden really fits the PPR scammer profile.
6:18Ben Johnson knows how to scheme his guys open and get them into space.
6:22Burden's yards after the catch ability could be a cheat code for this offense.
6:27Back in college, he was well above the 80th percentile in receiving yards after the catch per reception, and he had a
6:3498th percentile broken tackles per catch rate. As a lot of you know, the ZAP model absolutely loved Luther Burden.
6:41But he did nothing as a rookie for me to think that he doesn't have a lead upside.
6:47He finished the 2025 season with the third highest yards per outrun rate of any first year wide receiver since 2011 with
6:55at least 100 or more routes run. From week 11 through 17, he ranked 10th in targets per outrun, 2nd in yards
7:02per outrun, and 5th in PPR points per outrun.
7:05Week 11 was also that inflection point for the Bears where they started giving Burden more than a 50% route share.
7:12There's certainly volatility with Luther Burden. A Dunze and Colston Loveland should command a healthy number of targets in that offense.
7:19Burden himself didn't get over a 70% route share mark in a single game last year.
7:25But if things come together and he builds off of what he did down the stretch, of course he could have a big season.
7:33And given that he's barely going to be 23 years old when the season ends, that kind of breakout could easily make
7:40him a top 10 dynasty wide receiver at the end of the season.
7:45The best tight end with the last name Ferguson will be Terrence Ferguson.
7:49This one's bold because Terrence Ferguson's mostly an afterthought in drafts though he is getting some steam, and he's currently being selected as tight end 24.
7:58Jake Ferguson is the tight end 13. Here's why this can happen though.
8:02Look, from a projections perspective, Jake Ferguson looks better than Terrence Ferguson.
8:06He's in a high powered offense, we've seen him produce before, and Ferguson was a top 12 tight end in PPR points
8:14per game last year, Jake Ferguson that is. He also wasn't nearly as good when both George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb were healthy.
8:22In fact, across 5 games where CeeDee Lamb failed to reach a 50% route share last year, Ferguson averaged 17 PPR points per game.
8:30Outside of those weeks, that number was just 9.2.
8:33Unsurprisingly, Jake Ferguson's peripherals took a huge hit last year when both Lamb and Pickens were on the field with him.
8:40His .3 PPR points per route run in that scenario ranked outside the top 40 at the tight end position.
8:47His targets per route run rate was 19.4%. That was 31st among tight ends with 200 or more routes.
8:53His yards per route run with both George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb on the field was 1.06%.
8:59That would have ranked 60th. This isn't to say that every one of Jake Ferguson's routes are going to come with both
9:06of those guys on the field, but many of them will, and that's scary for his upside.
9:12With Terrence Ferguson, we're looking at a second year tight end playing on a team that used heavy personnel to top 10 rate last year.
9:21Now with late round tight ends, we should be looking for a clear path to those guys becoming a top two target on their team.
9:29Ferguson probably won't get there with Devontae Adams and Puka Nakua.
9:33However, there's not that much depth behind them. And there are two other factors that we should be looking at.
9:39Previous season average depth of target and previous season slot rate.
9:43Ferguson essentially doubled up every other Rams tight end last year in slot rate.
9:48And his A-dot was six yards higher than any other tight end in football.
9:53The Rams moved him all over the field, and they let him get vertical.
9:57There's a world where Jake Ferguson just isn't that big of a part of the Cowboys offense.
10:03You've got Lamb healthy, Pickens back, and a rising player in Ryan Flannoy.
10:08All the while, Terrence Ferguson could carve out a sincere target share in an offense that desperately needs someone to step up.
10:15So this bold prediction, it's not as crazy as it sounds.
10:19Malik Willis will finish as a top 12 quarterback.
10:22This one's bold because Willis' ADP, it's past QB 20 on most platforms.
10:26But this can happen, because we know that rushing is a cheat code at quarterback in fantasy football.
10:32In his three starts with Green Bay, Willis averaged 11.8 points per game via rushing alone.
10:38Now that's probably not sustainable, but it's not like it was Jared Goff doing that.
10:43Willis was a prolific runner in college. He's already shown it off in the NFL.
10:48Imagine a world where that rushing points per game number drops by like three or four points.
10:54It's not an unreasonable expectation when you consider his collegiate rushing history, and the lack of weapons in Miami, and the fact
11:01that negative game scripts could force him to scramble a lot.
11:05Since 2011, we've seen 25 quarterbacks throw the ball 300 more times, while averaging at least seven points per game via rushing.
11:12Of those 25, 22 of them finish as top 10 options at quarterback in points per game.
11:18Some sort of passing production will need to be there in order for this prediction to hit.
11:24And really, we don't know yet what kind of passer Malik Willis is across a larger sample.
11:29Obviously, the weapons there, they don't give us that much confidence.
11:33But Willis doesn't have to be insane through the air for this to come true.
11:38Just look at Justin Fields. He's a bad football thrower compared to other starters.
11:43He's not accurate, but over the last three years among quarterbacks with 300 or more pass attempts, Fields ranks eighth in fantasy points per dropback.
11:51You know who ranks even higher than Justin Fields?
11:54Anthony Richardson. It's all the same exact thesis. It's not going to be pretty.
11:59You might not want to watch it, but it's at least possible.
12:03Jordan Mason will outscore Tony Pollard. This one's technically bold because according to Consensus ADP, Mason's drafted nearly two rounds after Tony Pollard.
12:11I think this definitely can happen. Like, very easily.
12:14This is probably the weakest bold prediction in terms of hot takiness on this entire list.
12:19I think that Tony Pollard might have a volume and offensive situation problem this year.
12:25The Titans are not expected to be a top half offense this year.
12:29Their offensive line is projected to be one of the worst in the league.
12:34Meanwhile, in games with Tajay Spears last year, Pollard had just a 54% snap share and a 40% route share.
12:40And we've seen that backfield split up during the preseason.
12:44Maybe that's all just noise and nothing will come of it, but it at least signals that the Tennessee backfield could be
12:51more of a split than the market expects. And with Pollard posting sub 0.8 yards per route run rates in three straight
12:59seasons, I'm concerned about that pass catching profile. It's a pass catching profile on a team that could be trailing a lot this year.
13:07Now, meanwhile, Jordan Mason's not typically the guy that I go after in fantasy, but I like him this year.
13:14I'm less concerned about his competition versus Tony Pollard's if I'm being honest.
13:18It's a similar role overall. Aaron Jones is 31 years old.
13:22He's seen his per route run efficiency drop in each of the last three seasons.
13:27And if nothing else, Mason's at least really good on the ground.
13:31His adjusted yards after contact per attempt was over 0.7 yards higher than Aaron Jones last season.
13:37And he ranked third in the NFL in explosive run rate.
13:40Minnesota's offense should be better this year too. They were bottom 10 in drives ending in touchdowns a season ago.
13:47And with Kyler Murray's mobility under center alongside what should be a top half of the league offensive line, we should see better lanes for Jordan Mason.
13:56So yeah, ADP says that this one's kind of bold.
14:00I don't think it's bold whatsoever. But I do think that Jordan Mason can easily outscore Tony Pollard.
14:06Jalen Waddell will finish as a top 8 wide receiver.
14:09This one's bold because according to Consensus ADP, Jalen Waddell is the wide receiver 21.
14:14But I think it can happen because Waddell played 5 years in Miami, 4 of which came with Tyreek Hill on the roster.
14:22Among over 160 wide receivers who ran 400 or more routes during that 4 year stretch with Tyreek Hill, Waddell ranked 11th
14:29in yards per outrun despite ranking 32nd in targets per outrun.
14:33Maybe that means that he lacks that target earning potential.
14:36But there's evidence that this is simply a Tyreek Hill thing.
14:40Because when Hill's been off the field during this time, Waddell's targets per outrun rate rises to 9th.
14:46His yards per outrun for what it's worth is 2nd best in all of football without Tyreek Hill on the field.
14:53Waddell has played in an offense with a positive EPA per play just twice in his career.
14:59During that 2 year stretch, He ranked 5th in yards per outrun and 11th in PPR points per outrun.
15:06Now he's moving to a Denver team that's ranked in the top half of the league in EPA per play over the last 2 seasons.
15:14And it's a group that ranks 11th in pass rate over that time frame.
15:19Miami, over the last 2 years, they've ranked 22nd.
15:22And Denver, without an insane amount of wide receiver talent, they've targeted that position at the 11th highest rate per route run over the last 2 years.
15:31The Broncos also rank 7th over this stretch and wide receiver yards after the catch per reception.
15:37Waddell himself, over the last 4 years, he's been a fringe top 25 player in yak per reception.
15:43But he's 7th best among wideouts with average depth of targets above 10 yards.
15:47In other words, he's getting down the field more, but he's still creating after the catch.
15:53The Broncos are likely going to play Waddell in that Z role, moving him all over the formation.
15:59We saw them try this last year with Troy Franklin, and while it was essentially a failure, or eventually a failure, Franklin
16:06himself had a 5 game stretch with a 27% target share.
16:10Imagine one of the most efficient wide receivers in the game over the last 5 years, stepping into that role.
16:17That's why Jalen Waddell might smash this year. Dalton Kincaid will finish as a top 5 tight end.
16:23This one's bold because fantasy managers are kind of over Dalton Kincaid, and on some platforms, he's going around tight end 15.
16:30But look guys, Dalton Kincaid's 2025 was actually very good.
16:34George Kittle is the only tight end since 2020 who's been able to top Kincaid's yards per route run rate from last year.
16:42And among tight ends with 200 or more routes run, Kincaid's PPR points per route run average was the absolute best over that time frame.
16:50He was seeing targets at a really strong clip too.
16:53He had an 86th percentile targets per route run rate, and in 2024 to pile on, it was in the 98th percentile.
17:01So why is he not getting more love? Really, it's just usage.
17:05He's been banged up over the last couple of years, and it's led to him ranking outside the top 25 in tight end route share.
17:13Imagine a world where Kincaid, a player who's been extremely good at earning targets and gaining yards on a per route run basis, is healthy.
17:22And because he's healthy, he gets an uptick in playing time.
17:26That's all we really need for this prediction to hit.
17:29Jordan Love or Jared Goff will outscore Joe Burrow.
17:32This one's bold because Burrow's drafted as a QB4, Goff is the QB16, and Jordan Love is the QB18.
17:38This one seems kind of crazy. It seems like it's not even possible.
17:43But listen to this. Joe Burrow can end up winning MVP this year, genuinely.
17:48I think the Bengals are going to actually be pretty good.
17:51They look better on defense, the offensive line should be more cohesive than what we're used to, and obviously Joe Burrow has the weapons to make things work.
18:01This is strictly a fantasy football take. Burrow hasn't been running as much as he did earlier in his career.
18:08Over the last three seasons, he's averaged .5 design rushes per game.
18:12That's resulted in two seasons with fewer than .9 rushing points per game.
18:16He used to average closer to 1.5 to 2.0 design rushes per game.
18:20That's impacted his fantasy points per dropback numbers. In 2021 and 2022, he had fantasy points per dropback numbers of .53 and .52.
18:28Over the last three seasons, we've seen him at .37, .52, and .47.
18:33Even if we just focus on those last two seasons, Burrow's been QB11 and fantasy points per dropback.
18:39He's at the same mark in that statistic as Jordan Love.
18:42Jared Goff is a couple of spots ahead. Now, the reason Burrow's looks so favorably in fantasy is because he's simply thrown the ball more.
18:51During that time frame, Burrow's average over 40 dropbacks per game.
18:55Jared Goff's a little bit over .35, and Jordan Love is at .31.1.
18:59There's a very real scenario here where the Lions have just as bad of a defense as Cincinnati does.
19:05The Lions also have an awesome schedule. And there are outs here for Jordan Love, too.
19:11The Packers' defense just plays a little bit worse, and they become a little bit more pass-heavy with Josh Jacobs sidelined.
19:18And honestly, they probably should be a little bit more pass-heavy.
19:22Love's been the sixth best quarterback by EPA per dropback over the last two years.
19:27Jared Goff, by the way, is first. Joe Burrow is eighth.
19:30We see pocket-passing quarterbacks shift around rankings all the time when looking at preseason expectations versus postseason results.
19:36And Joe Burrow, at this point, should be treated as more of a pocket passer.
19:42There isn't that much recent evidence to say otherwise.
19:45So why couldn't Jared Goff and Jordan Love simply fall into a little bit more touchdown luck in a fantasy football situation that's just as advantageous?
19:53After September, Tucker Craft will outscore Trey McBride. This one's bold because Craft's getting drafted multiple rounds after McBride is.
20:00But I do think this definitely can happen. Trey McBride's 2025 was insane.
20:05He was great. I don't want to take anything away from him.
20:09But he also ran 120 more routes than any other tight end in the league.
20:14At his .46 PPR points per route run rate, if McBride had simply tied for the league lead in tight end routes
20:21run instead of leading it by 120, he would have averaged over 3.2 fewer PPR points per game last season.
20:28That would have taken him down to 15.3 PPR points per game.
20:32Now there's nothing wrong with 15 points per game.
20:35Don't get me wrong. But McBride also saw 18 end zone targets last year.
20:40That was the second highest mark from a tight end since 2016.
20:44That, and in turn, his touchdown total is not going to be easy to repeat.
20:49We also know that Marvin Harrison Jr. was banged up throughout the 2025 season.
20:54When Harrison was on the field with McBride last year, that .46 PPR points per route run rate fell to .41.
21:01Essentially, there are a lot of ways for McBride to regress this year.
21:05And that gives us an opportunity for this bold prediction to hit.
21:09Tucker Craft is coming off that ACL. It may take a handful of weeks for him to start seeing his typical route share.
21:17So let's give him September to get back up to speed.
21:21Hence the qualifier for this prediction. Why couldn't Tucker Craft outscore Trey McBride from there?
21:26Craft's PPR points per route run rate was significantly better last year at .59.
21:30It's been nearly identical over the last two seasons compared to McBride.
21:35Craft went down in week nine last year. Through eight weeks, he was technically ahead of McBride in PPR points per game.
21:42And I think Craft could just be featured more in this passing game.
21:46The Packers wide receiver room this year is shallower.
21:49And not only that, I think they could be more pass heavy like I just talked about with Jordan Love.
21:56So I think this one could work out because we've kind of already seen it work out.
22:02Like I said, there are five more bold predictions that are going to hit your inbox with a late round newsletter on Wednesday.
22:10So make sure you're subscribed. Go to lateroound.com, click newsletter and submit your email address.
22:15Otherwise, that's it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening.
22:19If you have subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are messaging for it.
22:25Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
22:31Thanks for listening, everyone. I will be back in your ears with Becoming a Best Ball Bro, the season finale.
22:38That's going to drop on Wednesday morning. And then we have the Late Round Show live on our YouTube channel at noon Eastern on Wednesday.
22:47And then later this week, we have an episode of Late Round Perspectives.
22:51I'll talk to you guys soon. Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the game, there's one place to keep up with all of it.
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