Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Is Playoff Correlation Overrated?
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Jul 29, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. That's Minky, M-I-N-K-Y, Couture, C-O-U-T-U-R-E.com.
0:03Go to MinkyCouture.com and get your Minky Couture blanket now, before everyone in your house claims it as theirs.
0:09Rich, did you hear the big news out of the sports world?
0:12I can't believe it. We've had such a strong rivalry, the Knicks have, with the Sixers over the last couple of years.
0:18And having to face now one of the greatest basketball players of all time in LeBron James on top of that is just going to make those...
0:26No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
0:29We're not talking about LeBron James here. We're talking about Dazon Stripling running with the ones.
0:33I'm JJ and over the last couple of years, I've been doing everything I can to be a Best Ball Bro.
0:39And last season, things finally fell into place. I got 40th in the DraftKings Millie Contest, taking home $20,000.
0:44Maybe I became a Best Ball Bro, but I'm still looking to learn more about this game.
0:49And I still want others to come on this ride with me.
0:53So even if you consider me a Best Ball Bro, this could be your year.
0:57This could be the year that you officially become a Best Ball Bro.
1:01This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for Best Ball, and we've got a can't-miss
1:07offer on their biggest Best Ball contest ever. $20 million in total prizes.
1:10It's draft one, get one. Draft your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week, all season long.
1:17Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
1:21Enter a lineup in the $20 million Best Ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
1:27Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
1:30The crown is yours. Welcome into another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro.
1:34I'm JJ Zacharysen, joined as always by my Jets-loving co-host, Rich Ryan.
1:38Rich, what's going on, buddy? It's the preseason, buddy.
1:40Hope springs eternal. Nothing bad can happen from here.
1:43Right, JJ? Right? Yeah, yeah, right. We had some cold open ideas, and the one that you were going to throw out
1:49there was about Geno Smith taking that punch. I forgot all about that, that even happened.
1:53That was the one and only time that I had an office job in my life, and it was the start of my second year in that job.
2:01So everybody knew me. I'm on the West Coast.
2:04I'm the Jets guy. I'm from New Jersey. And so when it happens, every guy in the office, maybe for like a
2:1030-minute period, would come over and let me know in case there was a world where I did not know that Geno
2:16Smith had broken his jaw via a practice squad player, that yes, Geno Smith would be missing a considerable part of the season with a broken jaw.
2:24What was the backstory as to why he punched him?
2:27It was just a debt. It was a $600 debt with IK and Kampali.
2:31I don't know if it was charity related. I think someone, I think Geno had dedicated his time or vice versa to
2:37like a charity event, like a camp that summer.
2:40And some money was owed and Geno was being quite arrogant about it.
2:43And IK and Kampali did not enjoy that arrogance and landed the one-two punch on our guy Geno.
2:48Crazy. So crazy. Last week, we talked about just some exposure stuff in general on the show with my portfolio.
2:54But we haven't done a lot of like risers and fallers ADP stuff in a while.
2:59So we're going to go through some big risers and fallers since it's right before camp starts.
3:03We're about to see some crazy things happen. So we have some names and such that have been rising basically since the end of June into July.
3:11You know, I went on vacation. We had that like that recap type episode.
3:15And then, you know, last week, like I said, we didn't go over this kind of thing.
3:20So we'll just go through some players and I'll, you know, throw some takes out and give you some like how I feel about it.
3:27But why don't you kick things off for us?
3:29Let's talk about some risers first. Yeah, let's start about let's start with two running backs who I'm just personally blaming you
3:36for these rises, especially the second one. One is Jonathan Brooks coming off another injury.
3:40The other is Jordan Mason to different paths, I think, to having success in best ball.
3:44But people are liking their profiles entering the summer.
3:47Yeah, I mean, look, I've had this take for a minute now that I think that that Jonathan Brooks could just jump Chuba Hubbard and ADP eventually.
3:55We're already seeing Chuba falling, which, you know, spoiler alert, that's one of the fallers.
3:59So I'll just talk about it here. But Chuba falling and Jonathan Brooks rising, you know, it's the hot new commodity.
4:05I, you know, look, and then in the draft guide, I have Jonathan Brooks as a target because what I do for
4:11the targets and avoids is that I'm looking at my rankings, my tears, and I'm seeing in my overall where I have them overall as well.
4:18And I'm looking at where they get drafted on the major platforms.
4:22And I think that this is a case where best ball or like some of the more prestigious, like, you know, high
4:28stakes platforms, you're going to you're going to find that Jonathan Brooks goes higher on those sites versus like a Yahoo or an ESPN.
4:35With that being said, I do. You know, there's usually a couple of week lags.
4:39So I think that we're going to start to see some sort of change there.
4:43Now, I look at my portfolio. I'm at about 11, 12% Jonathan Brooks right now.
4:48So I'm ahead of market. I do think that there's going to become a point in time where I'm not I don't want to be stupid about it.
4:55You know, like I think that Chuba, you know, I faded him last year.
4:59You know, I was really into Rico Dowdle last year.
5:02But that gap in ADP was significantly different. You had a fifth to sixth round running back in Chuba, often fifth round.
5:08And then you had a literal like late round dart throw for a while and like the 14th, 15th round Enrico Dowdle.
5:15But with this, you're looking at a ninth round Jonathan Brooks and a seventh to eighth round now Chuba Hubbard.
5:20And to me, you know, I think that's like fair.
5:23You know, like I I have Chuba like two spots in overall rank ahead of Jonathan Brooks.
5:28So like I said, I think if this flips, I don't know if we're thinking rationally enough about that.
5:33Just given the fact that like the stable piece is very clearly Chuba Hubbard in this back in this backfield, like very clearly.
5:40I liked Brooks as a prospect quite a bit.
5:42I think he's a good pass catcher, but I like him more as a clear dart RB three to four type player
5:49as opposed to one where now all of a sudden you're relying on him as your RB two.
5:54Yeah, you don't want the risk profile of the running backs you've taken before Jonathan Brooks to be a misfit with taking him right.
6:01You would want some stability before throwing that dart if you can have it.
6:05I should I do want to add that just so if people are curious, I'm at about three percent Chuba Hubbard in the Millie right now.
6:12And the other thing I want to say, and this goes back to your Rico Dowdle take last year, is that when
6:18you do have conviction in these ambiguous situations or you do want to press an edge, you might as well press it
6:24fully by just taking the other guy overweight, right?
6:27Because instead of just fading and having a take, well, if you fade that person and you're correct, the correlative result is
6:33going to be that the other guy does have success.
6:36So there are spots like this when you just have a take and you have conviction.
6:40Yeah, don't go overboard with it. Don't go like 15 percent to zero, but it's OK to push that edge and, you
6:47know, try to put a take into action like that.
6:50Well, especially when cost is involved, like you can't ignore.
6:52The cost aspect, this isn't like, you know, I think that the the Panthers situation, you know, like last year, there's really
6:59no downside or not a lot of downside and being heavy.
7:02Enrico Dowdle when I was basically I think I had one Chuba Hubbard team out of 150 in the Millie last year.
7:08And so and that's the low like I try to get exposure to it's just one of those players.
7:13I just didn't get a lot of exposure to now.
7:16I look at this year and the Chuba Jonathan Brooks thing.
7:19I just don't see as comparable because of the cost element.
7:22One place where I do think that's kind of comparable and I'll throw it out here because this guy is also a faller.
7:29I've mostly faded Tony Pollard in the Millie. And I know that's that goes against a lot of what consensus is doing.
7:35I know that that there are sites out there that are very like high slash very OK with going Tony Pollard's way.
7:41But for me, I just I prefer like a Jalen Warren, a Janarian Price when he falls, Ramondre Stevenson.
7:47I'd rather go that direction at running back if I'm taking a running back in that range.
7:51And then also I'm going quarterback often. I was going to say that's that's the start of the quarterback.
7:57Like, let's get serious. So I just I haven't gotten that much Tony Pollard.
8:01With that being said, even though this guy's been falling, I've gotten a lot.
8:05I've gotten a decent amount of Tajay Spears. I'll say that.
8:08Like, I think I'm overweight on him. I've got a lot of Nick Singleton.
8:12And I know that could end up being a zero.
8:15I get it. I understand the downside risk with that.
8:18I happen to believe that a lot of the players you're getting in 18 to 20 are zero type caliber players.
8:23You know, like I'm trying to balance my roster.
8:26If I feel really good at running back and wide receiver, and I know that I can just pick a position and
8:32just draft them and go for the shoot for the moon.
8:35I don't mind going Singleton's way because I thought he had a really good profile overall as a prospect.
8:41And then on top of that, I don't really, you know, Tajay Spears has never been in every down back consistently.
8:47Tony Pollard has a really, really rough receiving profile and sort of peripherals.
8:50And we saw some bad splits from him last year, even from a usage standpoint when Tajay Spears was active.
8:56And so I look at a guy like Singleton where you're probably not going to see much buzz.
9:01I mean, you might, but because he is a rookie and he is athletic, but I doubt you see a ton of
9:07buzz from him because you kind of have that head coach and that coaching staff that is more of like the traditional
9:14rookies got to earn it kind of staff. Right.
9:16Even though Dable, I mean, as OC, he's, he's played day three rookies the last two years.
9:21You had Tyrone Tracy two years ago, you had Cam Scadaboo last year.
9:25Right. And so I don't think that he's necessarily, I don't, I don't know if he would be afraid necessarily of doing that.
9:31But my, my greater point here is that this is more of the dynamic of the Chuba Rico thing last year of,
9:37you know, you're getting Nick Singleton for, I mean, you can get him in round 19 now he's fallen, but you know,
9:44you're getting Nick Singleton at the end of drafts.
9:46Tony Pollard's a very firm middle round pick. And I'm just opting to go that direction more because I don't know if
9:52the upside case is that strong for Pollard. Whereas, you know, if, if you're looking at the upside case for Nick Singleton,
9:59that late, you know, if, if things come together, there's an ambiguous bet.
10:02You have multiple injury outs for a player like this and he can catch passes out of the backfield.
10:08There's just, there's, it's just an intriguing profile. You know, I don't think it's as like clear cut and clean as Rico
10:14Dowdle last year because it's a three headed backfield, but that's more of the dynamic that I think that we're referring to
10:20as opposed to right now, Jonathan Brooks, Chuba Hubbard is just a little bit different.
10:24There's a lot different than that. Let's get back to some risers.
10:28We'll go up to the Bay area and talk about a guy that I feel like we're, we're just willing some health
10:34to go our way for our guy, Ricky Pierce, all up half around since the end of June.
10:39Yeah. It's interesting that he's up just because I think it's going to start to go the opposite direction potentially because we're
10:45getting a lot of design dribbling hype out of camp.
10:48You know, look, he's a size speed kind of freak that, that, that type of player that I'm not surprised would look
10:54good and like, you know, get a lot of praise that this time of year.
10:59You guys have, if you read the prospect, I do know that the model didn't love design dribbling.
11:04I'm not super high on dribbling as a talent as, as that profile.
11:07But that being said, you know, if you look at like my rookie rankings or if you look at where I'm ranking
11:14him right now, it's really been at market. It's just that the community kind of felt the same way about dribbling as a prospect for the most part.
11:21But yeah, I mean, like you have Christian Kirk getting banged up.
11:25That's allowed dribbling to do a little bit more in that offense.
11:28And now he has more opportunity to, to shine and do something.
11:32He got some of those like Jawan Jennings type comps early on because obviously they lose Jawan Jennings, but Jennings himself is a great blocker.
11:39That's, that's, that's the allure with a player like that and dribbling.
11:42I mean, I'm, I'm not going to sit here and say that I grinded his blocking film, but dribbling evidently can play that kind of role really well.
11:50And so I do think there's a chance that we see Pearsall kind of go back down a little bit, but I
11:56thought that Pearsall was very undervalued to start the Millie process back in like May and in June and stuff.
12:02So I think I'm a little bit overweight right now.
12:05I would imagine so just because, you know, like I thought he was a good pick.
12:09Like he had, he had really underrated. Yeah. I'm at 11%, but he had really underrated per route run metrics last year.
12:16Pearsall did. So I still think he's a decent pick.
12:18It's just interesting that we're seeing this dynamic since the end of June and then into early July.
12:23I think we might see him fall a little bit more because of design dribbling.
12:28Dribbling is the only player where I've made a clip for you and I've sought out blocking.
12:33Previously in the summer, everybody else is like big explosive plays, touchdowns.
12:36Then I literally put blocks in for dribbling because it was part of the conversation.
12:40Another receiver, somebody you've been on all summer, somebody who folks are catching up on is now in Denver, Jalen Waddell.
12:46Yeah, you know, I did the, I was at the Fantasy Football Expo this past week and I did a panel.
12:52We always do like an opening expo panel on Sunday.
12:55Me and then some other fantasy analysts in the space.
12:58And Bob Lung, who runs the expo, always asks us a player that we're targeting this year and a player that we're fading.
13:04So like our, you know, like favorite value and favorite avoid, basically.
13:08I never have like a clear cut answer for that because, you know, I don't really look at fantasy football that way.
13:14It's like I have my guys or anything like that.
13:17But the guy that I said as the target was Jalen Waddell, just because I just think it's an interesting profile slash dynamic.
13:23We're like, you know, he's played on a, in an offense with a positive EP per play just twice in his career.
13:29And in those two years, he had a 2.63 and 2.53 yards per out run rate.
13:34Now you go to Denver, a relatively pass heavy offense in a situation where he's going to be playing the Z.
13:40And what's interesting about that too, is that like last year, it's, I don't know how people have forgotten about this.
13:46I will never understand why the fantasy football community loves Cortland Sutton so much.
13:50Like, I just, I don't get it at all.
13:52He's the definition of a floor play. You know, of course he can have random spike weeks and such, but he's never
13:59consistently across the season since like his second year in the league, given you like really, really solid production, like, like even
14:05close to league winning production in fantasy. And now all they've done is add Jalen Waddle to the mix to, to solidify
14:11the fact that Cortland Sutton is going to play the X in this offense.
14:15If you remember last year, there were instances, there was like a four or five week stretch where Troy Franklin was out targeting Cortland Sutton.
14:22And the reason for that was because the Z role in this offense is just really valuable, right?
14:27Like that's what Troy Franklin was playing. Then they realized, oh, he's not that good of a player and he's, he's little
14:33and he doesn't get off the line very well.
14:36And now they went out and they traded for Jalen Waddle who can play that role, who we know is an ultra
14:42efficient receiver and just a good receiver in general.
14:45And so I'm hyped on what Jalen Waddle could do.
14:47If you look at the spectrum of, of drafting his drafts, you'll see him go.
14:52Like I've taken him at the three, four turn a lot.
14:55Like, I think that he could go like, he could very easily go in that range and you shouldn't think twice.
15:01Cause I think he's at the top of that, like really awesome wide receiver tier, like close to like where Zay or,
15:07you know, a lava or something like that. I like, I don't really see a huge difference in Jalen Waddle versus Chris Alave this year.
15:14Maybe that's a hot take, but I don't, I don't see why we need to differentiate it so much in our rankings
15:20and just like stick to ADP with, with Jalen Waddle.
15:23And I think others are realizing that and seeing that too.
15:26And that's why his ADP is rising. Yeah. Well, I think when it comes to a lava versus Waddle specifically, I think
15:32the range of outcomes for a lava is a lot wider than people want to admit because one of the introduction of
15:39Jordan Tyson, a very explosive talent, but also like Tyler Shuck could just stink.
15:43And if that offense goes downhill, like that's a massive impact.
15:46The other thing we've talked about Seahawks defensive regression as well, the Broncos topic.
15:50If there's any sort of regression there whatsoever and they can't play control ball with Bo Nix, like there could be spots
15:56where their offense has to open up as well.
15:59And Jalen Waddle is just, I don't know. He's just one of those where he's just, he's, he's a good player, man.
16:05Like he is one of the main reasons, obviously, along with Tyree kill, why that often's offense was what it was, you
16:11know, when to end and, and, and Mike McDaniel were cooking down there.
16:15He's, he's an unbelievable town and in a great spot now.
16:18I think people have been burned by him. And that's part of the reason too, is, you know, he's had some injury
16:24issues and such, but if he stays healthy, Jalen Waddle could smash this year.
16:28He really, he really could have a great year.
16:31Absolutely. Let's talk about Sean Payton's old team and an older player who we thought maybe could get traded, might retire, might
16:37something, but no, Alvin Kamara back in the saints and rising right now in basketball drafts.
16:41You got to think that if with him going back, there's this idea that he's going to have some role, some complimentary role to Travis HN, ETN, whatever.
16:49That was one of the big topics at the expo this week is how people pronounce it on their shows.
16:55I think I might stick with ETN because I can't deal with people yelling at me for not saying ETN.
17:01But anyway, Travis, that running back that they have in new Orleans now, I think he's going to see the early down stuff and be fine.
17:08To me, Travis ETN is, is a, like he, he was probably a little bit overvalued as like a player last year,
17:14not in fantasy necessarily, but just as a general like player.
17:17Like when you look at his secondary metrics and his, his success rate was worse than Bayshall Tootin's for instance.
17:23Now he was better yards over expected per attempt.
17:25You know that the stuff that is pretty solid running back type metrics, even though there's not many of them out there.
17:32He was fine, you know, in some of those metrics, but it wasn't like he had this like no doubt type performance last season.
17:38It was a lot better in fantasy than it was in real life.
17:42And despite the narrative that is attached to him, that he's this amazing pass catcher.
17:46He hasn't seen like that 15% target share type season in his career.
17:50It's just not happened and come to fruition. And so not only that, but Kellen Moore's offenses historically haven't really targeted the running back.
17:57Now there's obviously some noise, this and personnel related stuff to that, but like, it's not an offense that like hyper targets running backs or anything like that.
18:05And so when I look at Alvin Kamara resigning there, I say to myself, there's probably some role for him to play
18:11a pass catching, you know, role in the offense.
18:14So I understand why his ADP might rise a little bit with that being said, I kind of kept things a little
18:20bit more neutral with him versus how things have actually risen in the best ball streets.
18:24Mostly because there was an opportunity for him to get traded or to leave New Orleans and find himself in a situation
18:31where he would be getting clearly more work in that offense.
18:34But now he's obviously splitting that backfield with a pretty good running back.
18:37Not great, like I said, but a pretty good one.
18:40And I think the Saints offensive line is gonna be pretty good this year, which is a big, big key part to
18:46why I think that offense might turn the corner and be decent this season.
18:50Doesn't mean I'm drafting Chris Alave, but I do have plenty of like Tyler Shuck, Juwan Johnson, Jordan Tyson, et cetera.
18:56So I get it why he's rising, but I do think that, you know, it's one of those things where like the
19:02best ball community is always reactionary based on some sort of news.
19:06You know, it's like Alec Pierce right now. He goes on PUP and all of a sudden everyone's like, oh, I can't draft Alec Pierce.
19:13But it's like we kind of knew something was going on here.
19:16So I don't know what your expectation was. Maybe it was his ADP would have just risen if he didn't.
19:22Sure, because we would feel even more confident. But we knew that something was likely going on here and you're going to
19:28see the community react to that in a negative way.
19:31It's just that it's just what the AJ Brown stuff from earlier this offseason where we all knew he was getting traded.
19:37There's like an 80 percent chance he was going to go to the Patriots, if not higher.
19:42And then he does. And then he goes up over around an ADP, which I did not expect at all.
19:48But I was reminded that's just what the market does.
19:51So I think that's what the market is doing with Alvin Kamara in this case.
19:55Seeing with Zach Charbonnet, too, as well, like Alec Pierce was announced on PUP.
19:59But this is we knew this. This is something we had been planning for the Charbonnet thing.
20:04I mean, any ADP with Zach Charbonnet is wild.
20:06I saw him go in round 15 today. I couldn't take him or I didn't want to take him because I had Janarian Price on that team.
20:14And it's it's it's wild because of course he was going to start on the PUP.
20:18Like, of course he was like if he didn't, then his ADP would have gone like four rounds higher than where it's going right now, if not more.
20:26You know, so yeah, I mean, it's it's try not to be so reactionary when when you're making these selections.
20:32Let's pivot to some followers now briefly mentioned him with his former team, Miami, and that's Tyreek Hill down two rounds.
20:38Twenty six picks since the end of June. This is a player we have not discussed at all.
20:43We discussed a little bit before he went off the deep end, but we've not really touched upon Tyreek Hill.
20:49Where are you at on Hill? I've zero percent Tyreek Hill in the Millie.
20:53I've done 92 Millie drafts. I have not taken Tyreek Hill once.
20:56I mean, this is the Tank Dell thing, right?
20:59Like it's that kind of injury and Tyreek Hill is older.
21:02Explosion is the main part of his game. And that's why we want him in fantasy, because he's one of the few
21:08guys who can just win with athleticism that way.
21:10Coming off a major injury like that, I just don't want to deal with it, especially because he's, you know, at the
21:17tail end of his career at this point. To me, it's just not a worthwhile investment.
21:21And that's a that's one of those like true.
21:24And there were there were times where like he was going in like round 15 and such where like there's some like
21:30relatively usable players in that range that, you know, at least give you something and you won't take a zero for it.
21:36But there's a very real chance you take a zero with Tyreek Hill.
21:40So I'm out. I'm not surprised that he's falling after the reports that his leg like isn't functioning properly.
21:45I don't advise other people taking and drafting Tyreek Hill.
21:48Let's get to Chocolate City, the D.C. area. Rookie running back Katron Allen is starting to slide here as we get into August.
21:55I guess this is the Ja'Cory Krosky merit thing, you know, like that he's getting a little bit more love.
22:00Nobody steams more in the summer like good old Bill.
22:03I know it's really interesting to me. Like, I think Bill is fine enough as an early down guy.
22:08The one thing I do want to call out, though, and we're going to see it a lot when a player is
22:15working, like doing a lot of something in camp.
22:17It doesn't mean that the team is trying to get that player to do that thing in the actual games.
22:23Good example of this, you could use it with J.C.M., but Jadarian Price right now, they're using him a lot as a pass catcher.
22:30But I would imagine they're doing that because Jadarian Price didn't have that much of a pass catching profile.
22:35Like, we don't know how good of a pass catcher Jadarian Price is.
22:39They're probably just getting them reps because they don't know.
22:42And similarly, George Helani, right, is getting first team reps because they just want to see what their depth looks like and
22:48see what he can maybe do between the tackles a little bit more as opposed to just playing that like third down back type role, right?
22:55So it's the same thing with Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt, where the early down stuff.
22:59And by the way, George Helani, I have way too much George Helani, way more than I'd like to admit in DK
23:05basketball right now, where 20th round pick, I just need like a body at running back as my RB6.
23:11I've gotten him. I think I'm at like 14% George Helani right now.
23:14Just don't guys, guys, don't don't yell at me about that.
23:17Please don't yell at me about that. I mean, they were trusting him in the playoffs.
23:22I besmirched him by calling him a something a couple weeks ago, but like they were giving him the ball in the playoffs.
23:29I know. I'm just like to me, it's one of those things where like I'm willing with a 20th round pick to
23:35lay it to just like go into. Like, I don't think he's good.
23:38I'm just going into this idea. Like, I know that backfields are chosen by coaches, like whatever the coach wants to do.
23:45If they want to use them, then he could be usable in some way.
23:49To me, I don't see why like we would be so much higher on LaQuinn Allen than George Helani when George Helani's
23:55floor is probably the role that LaQuinn Allen is going to be playing.
23:59Right. Where there is more upside there that what if to start the year they do use him more as the early
24:05down guy and he's splitting with Janarian price. But with Ja'Cory Krosky merit, we're seeing a lot of reports.
24:10They like want to get him involved more as a receiver.
24:13Guys, Bill had a very poor receiving profile coming out of college and he did nothing as a receiver last year.
24:19I think that it's a little bit too bullish of a projection to assume that he's going to take on like a
24:25eight, nine percent target share in that offense, especially when Rashad White's there.
24:29And that's that's like that's like the one thing that Rashad White can do.
24:33And, you know, I'm a believer and I think teams should be doing this more of disguising what they're going to do,
24:39given the type of running back that's on the field, which is what the Rams really lit like leaned into last year with Blake Horm and Kyron Williams.
24:47Like don't have a third down running back, have a running back that, you know, can spell your starter and you guys
24:53can rotate drives or whatever, you know, whatever the case may be.
24:57That's not what Washington is doing, just given the personnel there.
25:00Right. Because Rashad White, not the best in between the tackles guy, Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt, not a good pass catcher.
25:06The two of them combined would be a pretty fun running back, but they're not combined.
25:10That's the problem. Right. So I say all of that because we're talking about Katron Allen and Allen to me is a
25:16is a duplicate of Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt in terms of the way they're going to be deployed.
25:21I think I've talked about this before. If you look at like the Minnesota backfield versus the Washington backfield, the Minnesota backfield
25:27has Jordan Mason as the very clear early down runner, which is why he's been rising up a little bit, I believe.
25:34And then Aaron Jones and DeMond Claiborne as more pass catching backs.
25:37Right. And then in Washington, Rashad White is the clear pass catcher.
25:40So he has a stable role in that backfield, whereas Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt doesn't necessarily have that role, which is why Katron
25:47Allen to me is kind of interesting because he's just got to beat out Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt to get a little bit more work.
25:53And he's obviously a completely different kind of running back than than Bill is and even Rashad White is, which is also
26:00a plus, in my opinion, for the for, you know, a day three dark throw type player.
26:04So Katron Allen is still fine, in my opinion, if you want to draft him late, even though he's falling.
26:10But do know that, like, that's the dynamic that we're working with with these backfields.
26:14Like, I like drafting DeMond Claiborne because the guy he has to beat is Aaron Jones, who is now on the wrong side of the age curve.
26:22And we don't know, you know, how dynamic he's going to look this year.
26:26Right. Whereas DeMond Claiborne is a very dynamic player and he's a decent pass catcher.
26:30So that's kind of the way that I look at these these late round rookie running back darts, these day three guys.
26:36I feel the same way about Katron Allen. So the next falling running back is also a young guy, but he's entering his third year.
26:43I believe he's old enough to finally buy a twenty seven dollar tall boy at MetLife.
26:48I'm not sure, though. I think he is finally twenty one in Braylon Allen.
26:52But you're using this as a jumping off point to talk about a guy you've liked since you wrote him up in the prospect guide.
26:59And that's Isaiah Davis. I think Isaiah Davis is just as good, if not better of a player as Braylon Allen.
27:05And there's been some small reports saying that he could be the RB two in that offense.
27:10Now, this is what reporting like the way that one beat reporter views what an RB two is could be different than
27:16another beat reporter, because again, these guys play roles.
27:19That's what I was trying to say about like Katron Allen there or some of these other rookie running backs.
27:24They're playing specific roles in their offense. Isaiah Davis, if you want to lump him into the LaQuint Allen, you know, George Helani type type group.
27:32I think that's fair. Right. But like, I think Isaiah Davis can handle more on the ground if something were to happen
27:38to the guy in front of him in Brees Hall.
27:41Right. Like, I think Davis can be an every down back in a pinch.
27:45Do I think that he's going to be that like, you know, when his rookie contracts up or whatever the case may
27:51be, like some team is going to be released?
27:53No, I don't think that's the case. But as a backup player, sure.
27:57Like, I think that Isaiah Davis has that opportunity.
28:00Braylon Allen has not really proven that he has the pass catching chops where Isaiah Davis has like they've deployed him that way historically.
28:06So I think Davis just straight up is a little bit more appealing than Braylon Allen at this point.
28:12And I think the reports like Davis has also been really efficient when he's gotten the ball and touched the ball.
28:18That's another thing to keep in mind. And so I think these reports about him like being their RB to whatever that means, sure.
28:25But I do think that there's some validity to the idea that Isaiah Davis could be a better fantasy asset than Braylon Allen this year.
28:32Davis also loved by the staff. I can I can tell you this this much great special teams player, a useful player.
28:38So somebody who you don't have to worry about ever being on a roster bubble or anything like that.
28:43So you're definitely buying points when you take Isaiah Davis because he's going to find his way on the field.
28:49It's just your point. How much is he going to see the field versus a Braylon Allen?
28:54Last one. And this comes with multiple question marks from you down to half around since the end of June.
28:59It's the tight end up in San Francisco. George Kittle.
29:02I'm just surprised that his ADP is falling because it feels like there's only been optimistic news about Kittle.
29:08Right. I don't get this. Right. Like, yeah. I mean, like I actually was more bearish on Kittle, you know, a couple
29:14months ago and I wasn't drafting enough of him.
29:16I've drafted a lot more of him recently. I'm trying to at least I'm still under weight on Kittle, but I'm at like 6% or something like that.
29:24I'd rather be at least at 8%, maybe even overweight on him because I think that things are treading in the right direction.
29:31And given what some like docs have said, this was an Achilles injury that wasn't like the bad kind of Achilles injury.
29:37Like it was one where, you know, he could return and at least get close to what we know from George Kittle.
29:43You know, there's definitely some trends in the draft guide that don't favor Kittle, but he's already beaten those trends historically, like slot rate type stuff.
29:51And he's just a, you know, he's an out, he's like a Derrick Henry type player.
29:55He's just an outlier type player where we've seen it year in year out.
29:59So we can kind of throw out the trends for a player like this and not really worry about it too much.
30:05Great offense, great environment. Obviously one that has sustainably had really high passing touchdown rates.
30:10Kittle in the 10th round, which you can get really consistently, like right before you get into like the Dallas Goddard range and stuff.
30:16I've been trying to get a little bit more of that.
30:19And the other thing that you can do is if you're at the tail end of like round nine, you know, you're in the front of the draft.
30:27You can double tap and maybe reach a little bit, but get like a pretty Kittle stack pretty easily.
30:33That's the range where the side of the board where Mike Evans goes to.
30:37So you can get very much get a pretty good San Francisco stack if you want to.
30:42And you could differentiate it like you could like that, that Philly San Francisco game is all on the left side of
30:48the board if you want it to be. And so you can play with that a little bit.
30:53So I like Kittle where he goes right now.
30:55I would envision his ADP going up as we get more reports just because things have been trending in the right direction.
31:02Yeah. Unless obviously the only thing is, is a setback, but yeah, it's right.
31:06Sure. But that's, that's an obvious one, right? Like any major one.
31:09That's right. Yeah. If everything is neutral, you're right.
31:12It's going to be, it's just going to be positive because that means he's out there running routes.
31:17And to bring it back to shriveling blocking because Kittle's blocking is like one of his main utilities for that Shanahan offense.
31:23Exactly. All right. Those are the risers and fallers.
31:25We do have an interview. I talked to establish the runs, Adam Levitan.
31:29Everyone knows and loves Levitan, including myself. We talked about his typical approach to draft Kings this year, little zero RB talk,
31:35his end of draft favorites, which is always a big talking point.
31:39A question that people ask this show pretty consistently.
31:41So much more though. So enjoy my conversation with Adam Levitan.
31:44All right, Levitan. So I know that, you know, you probably mix things up each draft, you know, you're reading the board and stuff.
31:51But when you sort of take a step back, what's been your typical approach this year on draft Kings?
31:57It's crazy how much the meta has changed on draft Kings best ball.
32:00I think this is my fourth or fifth year playing best ball seriously on draft Kings.
32:05And like my initial thought when playing this format, it's full PPR.
32:08There's bonuses for 100 yards. You can start for wide receivers.
32:11This is a very, very wide receiver friendly format, you know, very different than underdog half PPR, no bonuses on underdog like
32:17touchdowns and quarterback scoring are going to be such a big part of your score on draft Kings.
32:23It should be wide receivers past catching running backs.
32:25And yet this year, for the first time, I see the meta, the public and a ton of sharp people also just
32:31hammering wide receiver early because of the way the league has gone the last couple of years.
32:36I do not think that is right to force that this year.
32:40So I've been a little bit contrarian with some more wide receiver friendly starts this year.
32:44We can talk more about that later. And then the other big meta change this year in draft Kings has been quarterback ADP.
32:51Like it used to be you could get pocket passers in round 12, 13, 14, 15.
32:55My favorite teams on draft Kings were three later round stacked quarterbacks, pocket passing stacked quarterbacks.
33:00This year, though, like Lamar, Jaden Daniels, Drake May, Jalen Hurts, elite dual threat guys.
33:04They're not even going that much earlier than Dak, Stafford, Caleb types.
33:07And so I have way more two quarterback teams that have an elite quarterback or a dual threat who I think are
33:13going too late versus more of the three stacked ones.
33:16So there's definitely some huge meta changes going on.
33:19It also depends like who's in my room. I do a lot of these five, five, fives on draft Kings and I know like all the regs.
33:26There's a lot of regs in there. I know what they're going to do.
33:30You know what I mean? And so like it makes a difference there when you know how people are going to draft also.
33:37If you're going like like quarterback, like I had a team today where I went, I had Lamar Jackson dart.
33:43Right. And in that case, you're done at quarterback.
33:45That's been that's been the big thing because there's like pros and cons to it, obviously.
33:50Right. Because like the pro to me would be advanced piece slash maybe you can get another stack in the in the playoffs would have you.
33:57But then the con obviously is there's this other flex that you're just foregoing.
34:01Are you more like done it to in that case?
34:04Lamar dart. I am fine being done at two.
34:06I do do some backstacking with those kind of starts sometimes.
34:10Let's say Mendoza falls past ADP. I'll just take Mendoza and then go mayor.
34:13Or let's say, you know, I have a chance.
34:16I'm at the turn in the back and I can go like Gino A.D.
34:20Mitchell or Sadiq Gino. Like those type of opportunities to find the third quarterback and get a stack that can help you in the playoffs.
34:27And again, the three quarterback stuff isn't even that important for regular season.
34:31It is important because you want three stacks in the playoffs.
34:34That is very clear. Like three stacked quarterbacks in the playoffs is very valuable.
34:38So, yes, I'm okay with dart Lamar. If I see a spot to do it with one of these late round guys, I will.
34:45But I certainly won't force it. I think that exact thing happened with me where Rodgers went like I got Rodgers in like round 16 or 17.
34:52Like he fell, right? Because he usually would go like 14.
34:55And I just got Darnell Washington or something at the end just to just to have.
35:00Or you could do the Bernard thing. You know, Rodgers into Bernard also.
35:04Yeah. Right. Right. So, with you going more wide receiver heavy than the market overall, just generally, does that mean when you
35:10look at a strategy and an approach like zero RB, a lot of people are saying zero RB is dead, Adam.
35:16Is zero RB dead and gone? I was never really a zero RB guy.
35:20My favorite builds on DraftKings were always hero RB.
35:22And like I still do a lot of that.
35:25It's just crazy to me, man. I don't know what you think.
35:28But like I was talking about running back heavy starts, especially in season long, but also on underdog best ball.
35:34And people would like literally laugh at me. Like, oh, you're such a boomer, Adam.
35:38You're only allowed to take wide receivers. Yes. And rookies early.
35:41And now all these people are doing these extreme running back heavy starts.
35:45So, I'm not doing much zero RB or really any.
35:48I never really have. But I do think it's more viable now because some of these wide receiver values are insane.
35:54Like, I don't know what you think. But to me, like in previous iterations of fantasy, Jordan Tyson, Christian Watson, Ted Arroyo McMillan, Burden, Alave.
36:01I think these guys would be going much higher in a different meta.
36:04So, I do think it sets up pretty well for zero RB.
36:08If you're a zero RB bro, I'm more of a hero RB at most extreme.
36:12I think that that to me has been my like...
36:15It's weird that it's contrarian, right? Like, but it's been like my like go-to, like get one of these.
36:20Especially like I've gotten a lot of like, unfortunately, a lot of like five to eight spots in the melee where it's like...
36:27Like, I'm not like super, super high on Jonathan Taylor, for instance, right?
36:30So, I don't want to just like pound Jonathan Taylor and get him every single time.
36:35I've ended up with like a lot of JSN because of that.
36:38You know, some Amin Ra, whatever. And then you find like a pretty good pocket of running back in round two.
36:44And then you hit that range of wide receiver in that like three to five range where there's just so many upside
36:51receivers that it's hard to not go wide out there.
36:53And then all of a sudden, I've naturally just been going with my favorite value on the board essentially.
36:59But it's a hero RB build, right? Like just like that.
37:02And so, I felt the same way as you have.
37:05You know, like I think that like... I tried to describe this once, but like if you were to look at like
37:11fantasy strategy from a zero to 100 spectrum and like a zero is like a zero RB, 100 being robust RB, year
37:17in, year out, I'm usually like in that like 30 to 70 range in terms of like the way that I look at strategy, right?
37:24Whereas the market often will try to go zero.
37:27And I say the market, like part of it's like touts, right?
37:30It's other touts that are saying this and like driving this.
37:33And so like maybe I'm a little bit more running back heavy, but like I feel like the game itself doesn't change
37:40quite as much as some others make it seem to be changing.
37:43Well, I also think people tout or they make their conclusions about thinking about the scoring system.
37:48I mean, I'm way more likely to go robust RB on underdog than I am on DraftKings, you know?
37:53And so I think that kind of gets lost in the mix.
37:56One thing I will say though is like I actually like balanced builds a lot this year.
38:01And some people might disagree, but you know, I do.
38:04And we'll talk about some of them. I do like some of the round four running backs.
38:09But also if you go zero RB, you kind of box yourself out from some of these later wide receivers that I like.
38:15Like let's say you start six wide receivers in your first seven picks.
38:19You can't really take Pearsall, Downs, Golden, Coker types.
38:22And I kind of like those guys also. So, you know, one thing about doing the extreme stuff is you box yourself
38:28out from falling values in best ball, which is one of the most important things.
38:32And you box yourself out from guys that you like downboard at the position.
38:36Yeah, 100%. If you look at the latter parts of round one and then into round two, you have a lot of interesting running back profiles.
38:43Like I said, you know, if I get a JSN round one, I'll get the falling running back value in that tier, you know, in round two oftentimes.
38:51But I want to ask you this because I've had a hard time kind of like figuring out who I really, really want to be.
38:58I mean, I've kind of naturally found who I'm overweight and underweight on.
39:02But like I also want to get that a little bit more even than where I'm at right now.
39:08Like if you could look at two of those guys in that running back tier who you want to be overweight on
39:14and maybe two who you want to be underweight on, who would those running backs be?
39:18Okay, well, we might have a debate on our hands.
39:21Let me give one that I hope is not controversial.
39:24The one that I'm most overweight on, that pocket of running back, the one that I'm most confident about in like back
39:30of round one, early round two is Kenneth Walker.
39:33I have some information that one of the reasons Kenneth, like Seattle wanted, they wanted to retain Kenneth Walker.
39:38But he was like, you guys have been playing me behind Zach Charbonnet.
39:42You guys have not given me enough touches. I'm out.
39:45And so even if the money was equal, he wanted to go to a place that would feature him.
39:50That is undoubtedly to me, Kansas City, who if defenses are going to play this deep safety cover two stuff against my
39:56homes, they need Kenneth Walker to just go absolutely nuts.
39:59So the way that the Chiefs offense gets unlocked this year to me is just a ton, ton, ton of Kenneth Walker.
40:05And like, they've had such dusty running backs. Like I'm not even sure Pacheco's an NFL player.
40:10Kareem Hunt was so withered. Andy Reid, when he actually has had really good running backs, has gone nuts with them.
40:16And so I think Kenneth Walker as a screen player, as a explosive play guy is just going to go absolutely berserk for the Chiefs.
40:23Very good offensive line. So that's the one I feel most confident.
40:26The other guy at the top that I like is one you just mentioned you didn't like.
40:31So I'm curious on this one. It is Jonathan Taylor.
40:34Yeah, let me hear it. Before Daniel Jones' injury last season, Jonathan Taylor was fantasy's MVP.
40:39And I think people like get lost in forgetting that.
40:41I also think they do not like the backups, Giddens and McGowan.
40:45So people kind of tend to think of JT as a two-down back.
40:49He has been an extremely durable for most part of his career.
40:52I think three-down back, you can catch a lot of passes.
40:55This is Brandon Thorne's number six offensive line in the Colts.
40:58I'm a little worried about Daniel Jones playing to the level he played at last year off the Achilles.
41:04It should be even more JT if that's even possible.
41:06So from a talent, explosive play, workload, offensive line perspective, I thought JT was actually pretty safe there in the back of round one.
41:13But I'm curious to hear your counter there. Right now, I'm at like 6% JT.
41:17So it's not a full fade. So it's not.
41:20But I do think that it's always hard when you're converting season long to best ball because I did my draft guide.
41:26That's going to be season long focus. And if you're looking at like home league type stuff, you know, JT is going
41:32to be captured more in that like CMC tier than he will be in that ladder tier.
41:37And so therefore, that's where more of like the fade idea comes from.
41:41Right. With that being said, I get worried about number one, what dimes looks like, of course, you know, coming off the injury.
41:47And the fact that like during that stretch, they were they were the best.
41:51They had the best offense in football last year.
41:54Right. So I just see the regression coming from an offensive standpoint in that way.
41:58He's certainly going to get volume. And so I don't think that he's like a bad pick strictly because of that.
42:04But he's also been like at most like more of that, like 11% target share player as opposed to that, like 15% target share player.
42:11And so that's like the small edges. Whereas like I look at a player like James Cook, for instance, who could end
42:17up seeing like maybe not the exact same amount of work on the ground as JT.
42:22But there is that room for growth with James Cook within his profile.
42:26Obviously, a better offense. We felt feel better about the offense.
42:29And if he does, because James Cook's never been a 10% target share player in his career.
42:34Right. And so, you know, obviously, there's the touchdown regression arguments and such with Cook, which didn't happen year over year.
42:39But if he does see that like 12, 13, maybe 14% target, like there's that room for growth.
42:45And that's the kind of prospect he was coming into the league to cook, right?
42:49Like he was supposed to be that pass catcher.
42:51So that's why, like, I think Cook, if I were like straight up to take one of them in a full PPR
42:58format, I'm leaning Cook more than JT. That's mainly the reason.
43:01JT is still like a top five, top six running back for me.
43:04So I'm not going to like when it comes to those kinds of players, it's really hard for me to be like,
43:11yo, you're wrong about one of the best running backs that we've seen over the last 10 years.
43:16You know? Yeah. And I say the same thing when people are like, oh, I got a round 20 play for you.
43:22I'm like, yeah, how bad can it be? It's round 20.
43:25You know, it's kind of a similar idea. We have Jonathan Taylor 10th right now in DraftKings and James Cook 12th.
43:31Super, super close. I don't disagree with the James Cook stuff.
43:34I like him also. But these starts that are like JT or James Cook and then Kenneth Walker, you know, I get
43:40how you can get really running back heavy with starts like that.
43:44I like those starts. Yeah. No, I agree. I agree.
43:47And so the two that you would then, that you're scared of basically.
43:50Yeah. I mean, I kind of feel like this is in line with market, but the first one is I'm just worried
43:56about A-chan just from a systemic level. So much of his production has come through the air.
44:01I have major concerns about Malik Willis capturing that.
44:04And then you have like, they're going to be so bad.
44:07I mean, this is one of the worst rosters I can ever remember.
44:11I just makes me queasy. Like, oh, he turns an ankle late in the season.
44:15What's the point? You're trying to get the number one pick anyways.
44:18Like why fight through it? So A-chan has been a pretty easy fade for me.
44:22I know market is kind of on that as well.
44:25Let me just check ADP. Yeah. Market's at 18 on A-chan right now.
44:29It opened at like 12. So market's definitely been getting down on him.
44:33And the other one that makes me queasy fade, but I do not have a lot of right now.
44:38We are at 21 overall on a Marion Hampton against an ADP of 14.8.
44:42And it's just from a math perspective. Once you start giving stuff to Keaton Mitchell, which I think you have to give
44:48a little bit to Vidal, give a decent amount to the tight end room, which is really strong.
44:53Give a decent amount to the wide receiver room, which is strong.
44:57Slow them down for Mike McDaniels typical pace. It's hard to get there from a math perspective on a Marion Hampton.
45:03That's like my only argument though, because otherwise I want to like a Marion Hampton.
45:07It's just really hard from a math perspective to get there on him at 14th overall.
45:11Yeah, I totally see that. My thing with the way that I've kind of approached the Chargers stuff that like in that
45:18individual draft, I'm thinking to myself, you obviously see the outlook, like the scenario where Hampton smashes, right?
45:23Offensive line looks healthy and good. We're bullish on the Chargers offense.
45:26Like it's, you can see that outlook. And so I'm playing it as that scenario hitting in the times that I get
45:32Hampton, which I'm not going to be like massively overweight or anything.
45:36And then I have a ton of Keaton Mitchell too.
45:39Yeah. In the scenario that the median hits and they are splitting up that backfield, you know, in that way.
45:44But I agree. Like, I think that that's the, that's the right kind of, like, I agree with HN too.
45:50HN is one of those guys that's going to go higher in home leagues as well.
45:54You know, he's more of that like back half of the first round type of player in those in that format.
46:00And I'm just, I can't get there with him.
46:03No, that's an easy fade. I mean, there's so many other options to take in the back half of the first round than HN.
46:10Yeah. Let's talk tight end real quick. Are you an early round tight end guy on, on draft Kings or do you wait?
46:16And then is it like a, or is it like a Brock Bowers or bus thing for you?
46:21Yeah. God, I feel like I've been results oriented with this.
46:24Like one year I won one of the, I think I won like the draft Kings three, three, three, like a few years ago.
46:31And I was all late round tight end and I had Isaiah likely who was like a bench player all year score
46:37like 20 for me in the championship week. And that was all I needed.
46:41Then last year I had a really good advance rate and lost almost all my teams in the five, five, five because
46:48Kyle pits just shoved it right down my esophagus.
46:50So like I have been like, you know, back and forth on, on what to do at tight end.
46:56I'll say this generally. I do think elite tight end play is better on draft Kings.
47:00How do you separate at tight end on draft Kings by catching a ton of balls, Bowers, McBride, Loveland, you know, just
47:06catching, racking up catch volume on underdog. Touchdowns are so much more of your scoring.
47:11I'm way less likely to take elite tight end there, but yeah, I like the Bowers price on draft Kings.
47:16I've seen McBride slip to middle of round three lately.
47:19I'm doubt I'm going to pass on that there.
47:22I think Colson Loveland is one of like the safest, most straightforward, like profiles to smash, but there's also other pockets of the draft that I like.
47:29I think Fannin is interesting. I think Kittle is interesting.
47:32You can even start later, you know, Mark Andrews, I think is interesting.
47:36Juwan Johnson, and then you can even start later and go for, you know, I think a Conquo Hawkinson, Gunner Helm, Terrence Ferguson.
47:42I've done some four more for tight end builds this year than I have also.
47:47So I've tried all over the place. It's tough.
47:49I do think the whole idea of tight end to me is, can you have a guy that can get you 30 in the playoffs?
47:56Cause you're probably going to need that, especially if you're playing the lotto.
48:00If you're playing the $25 lotto, somebody in your pod is going to have a tight end go for 30.
48:06Will you have that? Cause it's really hard to match.
48:08Last year, Kyle Pitts gave me like 42 and my tight ends all scored like nine.
48:13And no matter how well the rest of my team did, I was just dead.
48:17You know? So like that, you just can't let that happen.
48:20And it's one slate. It's hard to predict, but you just can't let that happen.
48:24Yeah. I look, I had my, I had a, a, a Millie finals team last year that had pits and then I had Derek Henry in the final.
48:32And it's just like, that was just, it's not like I'm sitting there being like, yo, Kyle Pitts is going to drop
48:39a 40 burger right when we need it. You know, it's just the stars aligned, right?
48:43It's just a situation like that. And I think there, I think you're right though.
48:47Like there's, there's so many of the, like, there's so many like relatively attractive pro.
48:52I know that we feel like we say this every year where we're like tight ends deeper than usual.
48:57Right. But like, there are some really, cause we got a really good class last year.
49:02One of the best that we've seen in a really long time.
49:05And then we even have like the Terrence Ferguson dart throws from that class, right.
49:09That, that are still pretty attractive and interesting. So that's boosting up and just kind of giving us more tight end options.
49:15And then I even have been drafting like Kenyon Sadiq cause he falls on, on, on DK often.
49:21And so like, I think because of that, I still want to be overweight on Bowers, but I'm not as much as
49:27I thought I was going to be because there are these other outlets.
49:30And the other part of it is the NFL meta stuff.
49:34Like, you know, it's not Sadiq versus Mason Taylor.
49:36They're going to play different positions. They can play at the same time.
49:40You know, it's not Loveland versus commit. They can play at the same time in a lot of formations.
49:45So the way the NFL is going is allowed more tight end bets to emerge.
49:49Yeah, for sure. All right. Let's go back to that, that fourth round wide receiver range that I was kind of talking about earlier.
49:56Like I love the wide receivers in that range are so many good ones.
50:00You mentioned that you're still drafting some running backs in there, which I am too.
50:04It's, it's gotten to this point where like, I'm trying to force it a little bit more because I, I get so
50:11enamored with the wide outs that are there, but I'm trying to get like more Javante or whomever, you know, is there in that, in that range.
50:18Is that how you're looking at it? Or are you just leaning more wider seat?
50:22Like how do you, how do you view that like third to five round range?
50:27Yeah. So I was just looking at the fourth round and the guys that I take, the running backs that I take
50:33consistently in the fourth round are Javante Williams and Travis Etienne.
50:36I've gotten some crazy Travis Etienne prices since the Camara news.
50:39You know, people are definitely spooked since the Camara news.
50:42I think Camara is like dust and they wanted to get rid of him and they're just like doing him a favor,
50:48which is the worst way to run a business or a franchise.
50:52Like look what the Eagles did. They just cut guys like Brian Dawkins gone.
50:56Jeremiah Trier, like gone. You know, it doesn't matter.
50:58You've been a hero to the city for 10 years.
51:01Like they, they wanted to cut Camara. They didn't have the balls to do it.
51:05So I'm really not that worried about the Camara stuff.
51:08I think it does cap the ceiling outcome from a pass catching perspective a little bit.
51:13Yeah. But from a base case, I think Etienne is totally fine.
51:16And I like Javante also like as part of the time.
51:19So I do take those guys. I do prefer McMillan, Burden, McLaurin to the running backs like Dave Montgomery, Swift and Judkins.
51:25So I'm like really have very little of those guys, Montgomery, Swift, Judkins.
51:29And I have a lot of Burden, McLaurin and a decent amount of T-Mac.
51:33I think that's the range you're referring to, but yeah, I'm mixed in there a little bit.
51:38And yeah, are there other wide receiver profiles that you really like in that, in that round four range?
51:43I like Waddle a lot. I'm into Waddle this year.
51:46Are you, where are you at with Cam Scadaboo?
51:49Are you, is, is he, is he part of your, your consideration set there?
51:52I take him. I definitely prefer Etienne and Javante though.
51:55But yeah, I, you know, the health stuff, I'll keep watching the health stuff on Scadaboo, but the way he scores fantasy
52:02points, I think is the way he plays the game is very fantasy friendly on, on Scadaboo, I think.
52:07Yeah. Yeah. Agreed. I actually had this conversation with Kitchen like an hour or two ago where I was, I was just looking at my exposure.
52:14I was actually using the solver and looking at some exposure stuff.
52:18And I've done 92 milli drafts so far. I've only taken Judkins once.
52:21Oh, and I, I'm a little bit nervous about it.
52:24So I'm probably going to boost it up a little bit, but at the same time, it's the same thing that you're talking about here, right?
52:32Like it's just, I get really scared about the potential.
52:34Like I have a lot of Dylan Sampson. I think Sampson's actually pretty good late click.
52:39Like, and, but it's this like this potential one dimensional, you know, early down type back and a bad offense with a
52:45bad offensive line, at least with some of these other, like even if that happens with Travis ETN, because I agree, I
52:51think Camara could cap his receiving upside a little bit, but that offense, at least profiles to be better slash that offensive
52:58line could end up being really good this year.
53:00You know, like that, that's where like the, the, to me, the difference is between like a Judkins and an ETN type.
53:06A hundred percent. And yeah, like, I don't think it's bad to go for like, people ask me all the time.
53:12Yeah. If you're doing one 50, I get wanting to like not full fake.
53:16It's one slate, you know, like how many times, you know, it's one DFS slate where you full fade a guy like all the time, you know?
53:24So it's not, if you think about it like that, I think if you, if you don't like Judkins, I wouldn't force it.
53:30Just like take your 0% and pray, you know, like I love it.
53:34Yeah. Yeah. All right. I want to, I want to ask you about correlation in, uh, in the playoffs.
53:39A lot of folks who've been playing best ball, who will obviously look and focus at week 17 correlation, but how do
53:46you view like week 15 and six? I know Leone has done some work on this in the past as well.
53:52Is it something that you're like actively looking at?
53:54And also I do want to throw out there too, as like kind of an aside and in your take, cause this
54:00is more of like industry related than anything else.
54:03Do you think that people are not talking about week, like, like playoff week correlation as much because of the tools that
54:09are out there, you know, like the solver, for instance, like they're just relying on it.
54:14They know that it's there. You know, that you're getting a week 15 or 16 correlation.
54:18So you don't need to necessarily voice it and talk through it as you're doing.
54:22I just think there's like an interesting conversation there.
54:25I think when the, when the data, like, and the data is clear, you can read Leone's best ball manifesto, like having
54:31week 17 correlation helps once you get to week 17 period, you know, like it definitely helps.
54:36I think that was somewhat novel when it first came out and it was like a really interesting thing and a new
54:42thing to think through that people that doesn't correlate to season long at all.
54:46I think now people are realizing what Herzog and I think, and we disagree with Leone a little bit.
54:52Herzog and I worked on an article about what people should think about when they're on the clock.
54:57And we had week 17, week 16, week 15 correlation.
55:00We had that as the last thing to think about behind understanding draft capital by position.
55:04Adjusting your drafts for ADP player takes like to me and Herzog, at least all that is more important than week 17 correlation.
55:11So if I'm like really torn between two players, I'll look at some correlation in the playoff weeks.
55:16I'll definitely look at their playoff matchups and what I expect the weather to be.
55:20But I do not go into my pick thinking, oh man, I better find some week 17 correlation.
55:25You're like, I think that's a pretty big mistake.
55:28Period. Period. There's a lot of times though, especially if you're doing a lot of volume that like it's really close between
55:34two guys and week 17 correlation would be a very good tiebreaker.
55:37Yeah. That's how, that's how I try to view it too.
55:40It's also easier. Like when you're in like the, the, the areas of the draft that just aren't as, uh, you know,
55:47important, you know, and you're, you're in round 18 or something like that.
55:50And like, it's easier to get a bring back because the range of outcomes are crap anyway for, you know, the, the
55:56high end outcome for those guys anyway. So might as well try to, but yeah, I agree.
56:01But also like, I do think that the solver and such, like it makes it so much easier to not have to really worry about that stuff.
56:09Yeah. And you can display on, on the solver tool also that JJ is referring to.
56:13You can display the playoff matchups and, and you know, I don't like to predict how good defenses are going to be
56:20for most of them, but I know some defense can be really good.
56:23And I know some are going to be really bad.
56:26Like at the tails, I actually think we can and should try to predict which defenses are going to be really bad.
56:32So, so yeah, I think looking at the playoff schedule is almost as important in looking at the week 17, uh, correlations.
56:39All right. Now that we're in the end of the draft and we talked about early stuff a little bit, do you
56:45have any, any favorite, like, like late round end of draft targets?
56:48Cause I, everyone is always, always, always hitting me up and asking about this.
56:52It's so brutal because, you know, if anyone talks about guys at this time of year, when there's no news and, you
56:58know, recording this, uh, July 28th for the last month, there has been zero news.
57:03And so if you breathe on a guy, he goes to like round 15 around 16.
57:07So I think it's been actually been kind of a poor time to draft the last couple of weeks.
57:13Like I consider my biggest edge in this basketball stuff reacting to news.
57:16And when there's no news, like, okay, where's my edge if we're not reacting to news.
57:21So I've tried to slow down my drafting a little bit for now guys that I've been taking back of draft lately.
57:27I've been trying to get a lot of tank Bigsby.
57:30I think from a rankings perspective, and I know this just from projections, the guys that have a little bit of standalone
57:36value, like say a Pacheco are going to project and rank a little bit better.
57:40But in the event of what I actually want to happen, in other words, there's an injury ahead.
57:45I think tank Bigsby could go absolutely berserk. And same with Ray Davis, like Bigsby and Ray Davis, if Saquon and, and,
57:52or James Cook go down, I think are gonna go berserk.
57:55So I like those one injury away guys at the back.
57:58I, the gap between Trey Harris ADP and Quentin Johnson ADP is just, I don't get it.
58:03Trey Harris at 180 and QJ at like 70.
58:05I take Trey Harris there every time I have like zero QJ.
58:09I was taking the scribbling stuff before all this news yesterday, but I'm sure people are going to steam scribbling up now.
58:15He won the 13th today in a draft. Yeah.
58:17It's a joke. My most drafted player, which I don't even, I don't even, it's all around 20.
58:22I don't even feel great about it, but Jalen Knoll is my most drafted player right now.
58:27I thought on a per route basis, he was good last year.
58:31And whereas Nico Collins and Jaden Higgins are outside players in theory, Jalen Knoll fits really well.
58:35My concern is they love Xavier Hutchinson and they had chances to use Jalen Knoll last year and just didn't, but he
58:42is my most drafted player right now. So yeah.
58:44Oh, I think I had one more on here.
58:47Oh, Michael Mayer. I don't normally do like one injury weight tight ends, but if Brock Bowers goes down, Michael Mayer is going to smash.
58:54And so I take that a lot. Mayer might even have standalone value.
58:58You know, he might give you like a couple of just random, you know, off weeks where he, where he's usable.
59:03I think that your note about the backup running back stuff is one that like, I really started to change my tune
59:10on because I haven't really drafted much Pacheco at all just because I don't think the talent profile is good enough.
59:16Right. Like you need, like, I think that's something that like fantasy players get wrong often is that like, they just think
59:22that, Oh, if you're in that RB two spot, therefore you will get work if something, but you need to be good.
59:28Right. Which is exactly why you're mentioning a tank Bixby because his, his peripheral, like his, his, his secondary numbers were like great last year, you know?
59:36And so like, like, like, but what I think is really interesting about that is that like people look at him as
59:42a zero, as you're saying, but realistically the usability of an Isaiah Pacheco type player is not any different than the usability
59:48of a tank Bixby like player, because the usability is like eight PPR points.
59:52You know, if they, if they are getting that like backup work, you know, and maybe having a little bit more of
59:58a workload as a Bixby, but obviously the upside is there for, for, for the Bixby case, which is something that I
60:05think a lot of people just get wrong often.
60:07Yeah. And like eight points is worth something in best ball, but I think you're overestimating if they think Pacheco can get eight, you eight points every week.
60:15Every week. Right. Yeah. I mean, yeah, for sure.
60:18What do you think about Noel? Am I crazy?
60:20No, no. I like, I like the Noel call out.
60:23I, I, I throw random darts at that. I mean, because it's a good backstack too.
60:28It's just easy. If like Stroud falls and stuff like that, I have a ton of Noel.
60:32I like the Trey Harris call out a lot too.
60:35I don't know if it was like, cause doesn't, didn't Silva one week just like up Quinton Johnston like crazy.
60:41Like, and I, I'm blaming the DK shift on Silva, just going ham on Quinton Johnston because there was like a two week period.
60:48QJ was like in the nineties or something. And then he just goes up to the six, seven turn out of nowhere.
60:54And so I'm not, and, and the other weird thing is like, like I have QJ in the draft guide as a
61:00late round dart throw because he goes in the late rounds and like every, you know, like mainly, you know, Yahoo and ESPN and stuff.
61:07But on DraftKings, he's so early. Whereas Trey Harris, I'm at like, I think he's one of my highest roster wide receivers right now.
61:14I don't get it. I don't, I honestly don't get it on QJ, but I don't even want to tweet about it.
61:20Cause there's like a lot of QJ fans out there, you know, and I don't, I don't need the hate.
61:26Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's fine. I'm blaming Silva though.
61:28Even if it has nothing to do with Silva, I'm just going to go that route.
61:33All right. Before I let you go one, one bold prediction, one fire take about this, this fantasy season.
61:38Yes. I'll go with more of a real life take, but obviously it flows through to fantasy bold prediction for this year.
61:45Joe Burrow is the NFL's MVP and the Bengals.
61:47Yes. The Cincinnati Bengals win the Superbowl finally have like two legit stars on defense in DJ Turner and Dexter Lawrence finally
61:53have what like Brandon Thorne has them as number 15 offensive line could play even better than that.
61:58And like every time Joe Burrow stays healthy, I'm like, this could be the best offense in the league.
62:04He's so good. It's crazy. You know, and like, obviously I'm mainly focused on DFS and like every week that Burrow is
62:10out there and healthy regardless of matchup. I'm like, this stack has the ceiling to win the week.
62:15And so I really like the Burrow chase, chase Brown type stuff this year.
62:19And I mixed T Higgins in there also. So yeah, I think Bengals are going to be very good this year.
62:25Yeah. I mean, they've caught new in the offensive line for like the first time like ever for Burrow too, which is,
62:31you know, should be super, super helpful. So love the take.
62:34Love chatting with you, man. Let everyone know where they can find you, what you guys are doing over on ETR, all that good stuff.
62:41Yeah. And if you guys are watching this on YouTube, you can just pop over to the ETR, establish the run YouTube channel.
62:48Me and Silver doing three to four shows a week there up through to week one.
62:52And that's totally free. So if you like this, head to the ETR YouTube and hit subscribe there.
62:58That's probably the best way to check us out.
63:00Sweet. Make sure you guys checking out late round.com, get that draft guide, read it, or just do what most people do
63:06and skip over all the stuff that I spent hours and hours on researching and just read the players to target and avoid.
63:13But regardless, support me. Go to late round.com. Otherwise, everyone.
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