From the episode

There's like an 80 percent chance he was going to go to the Patriots, if not higher. And then he does. And then he goes up over around an ADP, which I did not expect at all.

STACKED’s take

Positive signalValue

Brown traded to Patriots; ADP rose post-trade despite 80%+ probability being known.

AJ Brown was traded to the Patriots in the offseason, with an 80% or higher probability of this happening that was widely anticipated. Surprisingly, his ADP went up over round after the trade was announced, which Zachariason did not expect. He notes this is just how the market reacts to confirmed news, even when the outcome was highly predictable.

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