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1130: 10 Trends for Week 3

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

21 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 23, 2026
Published
Wed, September 23, 2026
15
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
Baker MayfieldColston LovelandJacob CowingJalen CokerJaylen WaddleKalif RaymondLamar JacksonLuther BurdenMarvin Harrison Jr.Parker WashingtonQuinshon JudkinsRhamondre StevensonRome OdunzeTed Hurst
Player analysis

Player insights

15

Baker Mayfield

NegativeProjection21:47

Mayfield's fantasy performance is heavily dependent on Mike Evans. Without Evans, his EPA per drop back and fantasy points per drop back drop significantly, making him a risky start in single-QB leagues.

Insight page

Colston Loveland

NegativeProjection8:49

While Loveland leads the Bears in route share, he has failed to convert opportunities into production. JJ Zachariason is concerned about his potential to become a 'beast' because there is no clear positional reason for his lack of production.

Insight page

Jacob Cowing

PositiveDepth Chart18:29

With Demarcus Robinson injured, Jacob Cowing is trending toward more playing time. Data shows he was the only wide receiver to run routes alongside Mike Evans after Robinson's exit in Week 2.

Insight page

Jalen Coker

PositiveBreakout17:24

Due to the Panthers' high pass volume and fast pace of play, JJ Zachariason believes Jalen Coker should be able to stick around as a fantasy-relevant player.

Insight page

Jaylen Waddle

NegativeProjection2:18

JJ Zachariason advises against overreacting to Waddle's poor Week 1 stat line, noting that the entire Broncos offense struggled and that one game does not define a player's season outlook.

Insight page

Kalif Raymond

PositiveUsage5:13

Raymond has unexpectedly emerged with a 25% target share and a 67% route share through two games, significantly impacting the target distribution for the Bears' primary pass catchers.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

NegativeUsage28:56

Jackson's fantasy value is threatened by a decrease in designed runs (only one in two games) due to the Ravens playing more from under center. He may need to scramble more to maintain his 'cheat code' status.

Insight page

Luther Burden

NegativeProjection3:27

JJ Zachariason admits his expectation for Burden has been an 'L' so far, noting he has not lived up to expectations, though he finds some comfort that teammates Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze are also struggling.

Insight page

Marvin Harrison Jr.

NegativeProjection12:07

JJ Zachariason suggests Harrison Jr. can be dropped in shallower leagues due to his lack of involvement in the Cardinals' offense, noting he looks disinterested and is targeted at a very low rate per route run.

Insight page

Parker Washington

PositiveRole19:58

Washington has secured a significant role in the Jaguars' offense, boasting a 90% route share in Week 2. He ranks highly in efficiency metrics, leading JJ Zachariason to rank him as a WR1 rest-of-season.

Insight page

Quinshon Judkins

NegativeUsage26:39

Judkins saw an uptick in third-down snap share in Week 2, but his route share actually decreased. JJ Zachariason wants to see more usage in neutral game scripts without Dylan Sampson before fully buying in.

Insight page

Rhamondre Stevenson

NegativeUsage9:57

Despite a fumble and reduced snap share in Week 2, Stevenson remained involved in passing situations, playing two-thirds of third downs. JJ Zachariason views the backfield as a split and ranks him back-to-back with Henderson.

Insight page

Rome Odunze

PositiveUsage5:45

Odunze has struggled to meet expectations with only a 12.5% target share through two games. JJ Zachariason notes that Kalief Raymond's unexpected usage is negatively impacting Odunze's outlook.

Insight page

Ted Hurst

PositiveSleeper24:47

Hurst is a recommended stash who is seeing legitimate usage in the Bucs' offense, including a 72% route share and high expected fantasy points, despite currently underperforming his metrics.

Insight page

Trey McBride

NegativeUsage12:23

McBride has a 37% target share and is targeted on 40% of his routes, which JJ Zachariason deems unsustainable. While not a 'sell,' he expects the target volume to eventually funnel back to Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

228
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0:34Learn more at amu.apus.edu. This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:38What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen. In this episode 1130 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
0:45Before we get to the trends this week, I want to send another reminder to check out the Late-Round newsletter.
0:52The newsletter is absolutely free. Just head to late-round.com and sign up.
0:56You get the data dump in your inbox every Monday morning, the 15 transactions list on Tuesday morning, an awesome matchups column
1:04from Brandon Gadula, there's a wrap-up email from David Kitchen at the end of each week.
1:09I think it's a great newsletter, but I'm obviously biased.
1:12But check it out, it's free. Late-Round.com. The question that every fantasy manager is wondering right now is what the heck is
1:20going on with the Chicago Bears pass catchers? So let's try to simplify this as much as we can.
1:26First, I think like anything this time of year, let's remember that we're working off of very small sample sizes.
1:33I know it seems like I'm saying that a lot, but it's because it's true.
1:38You know how many people were coming after me last week about Jalen Waddle?
1:43Now, I have no idea how Waddle is going to end his season.
1:48But I know that one game is not going to make or break the way that I view a player.
1:54We've got to relax and let things play out at least to some degree.
1:59Also, something helpful to look at when you're analyzing an individual player is to see what's going on with the rest of the team.
2:07Luther Burden has not lived up to expectation this year.
2:11That's an L for me so far, without a doubt.
2:14But there's some comfort in knowing that neither has Colston Loveland, neither has Roma Dunze.
2:19This isn't necessarily a Luther Burden problem in the Bears' offense.
2:23If those two were thriving while Burden was getting destroyed, especially over a three, four-game sample, there would be a lot more worry then.
2:31Now, going back to that Waddle example, in week one, the Denver Broncos just sucked entirely as a team.
2:38They couldn't do anything offensively. Waddle's stat line was egregious, but so was the entire Broncos' offense.
2:43That's going to happen sometimes. Teams have bad games.
2:46With Chicago, we've got this two-game sample. Where in one of them, they dominated offensively, they leaned into their run game, and
2:54so many secondary players ended up working out in the red zone.
2:58In game two, they faced a really good defense within their division, and it was in a game with bad weather.
3:05If I were to point to one single problem with what's happening with the trio of pass catchers right now, strictly from
3:13a usage standpoint, it would be Kalief Raymond. Which is insane to say, because he's a 32-year-old veteran wide receiver who hasn't been super productive throughout his career.
3:22But that's where we're at right now. The logic with the Bears' pass catchers entering the year would be that targets would funnel their three main players.
3:31I legitimately thought that those three guys could combine for like a 70% target share this year.
3:37So far through two games, they have a combined 43% target share.
3:41I mean, I couldn't have been more off about those three players.
3:45Loveland's at a 9% share, Adunze 12.5%, and Burden 21%.
3:49And then there's Kalief freaking Raymond with a 25% target share.
3:52And while it is kind of fluky, he's not going to maintain a targets per route run rate of 26%.
3:59It's not totally fluky. Because Raymond right now is fourth on the team with a 67% route share.
4:05No player on the team right now, today, has an 80% route share or better.
4:11And this is not just like an 11 personnel thing right now.
4:15In 12 personnel this year, Adunze has a 70% route share, Burden 52%, Raymond 44%.
4:20In week two, Raymond ran more routes than Burden out of 12 personnel.
4:24Adunze actually had a 92% route share out of 12 personnel.
4:28But that's a big area where we need to see improvement with Luther Burden.
4:33Now I'm throwing all this at you just to say that it's been really, really chaotic for Chicago this year.
4:39Like never in a million years did I think Kalief Raymond would make this big of an impact after two weeks.
4:47Sometimes you get things right, sometimes you get things wrong.
4:50But I do deep down still think that this is not going to last forever.
4:55Remember, Adunze was banged up entering the season. There's a chance that Luther Burden's conditioning just isn't there right now.
5:02He missed a ton of camp. That seems logical enough to me as to why the Bears might be using Raymond as much as they're using him.
5:11If things don't change though, then there's almost no chance that these pass catchers are going to live up to expectation.
5:18And I will say, based on what I just talked about, I think Kalief Raymond is going to have a bigger impact
5:26on Roma Dunze and Luther Burden than Colston Loveland.
5:29Loveland's been getting a lot of run. He leads that team in route share.
5:34It's just that things haven't converted. They haven't clicked.
5:37Better days should be ahead for Colston Loveland. But because there's not this direct positional reason for his lack of production, I
5:44am slightly more concerned about him becoming that beast that you drafted him to be.
5:49And look, let's be honest. That's always the risk you run into when you take a tight end early in your draft.
5:57We saw a backfield flip this past week in New England, with the caveat that Ramondre Stevenson, who has fumbling issues, fumbled the ball on their first drive.
6:06But when that game was over, Travion Henderson, he out snapped Ramondre Stevenson 32-19.
6:11He saw 62% of New England's rush attempts, Stevenson 23%, and obviously, Travion Henderson had that big touchdown run.
6:17The thing is, New England couldn't completely pull the plug on Ramondre Stevenson in week two.
6:23Because they like using him in passing down situations.
6:26He played two-thirds of their third downs, and despite the snap share discrepancy, there was only a one-route difference between the two backs.
6:34Now, I thought Henderson looked pretty good in that game.
6:37But Stevenson was still better at fighting for those tough yards.
6:41That's just by the eye test. When looking at the data, that actually played out.
6:46On a six-rush sample, Stevenson saw a successful run on four of them.
6:50On 16 rushes for Henderson, he was also successful on just four of them.
6:55And those are runs that resulted in a positive EPA play.
6:59My stance is that we don't really know right now.
7:02I don't want to throw away months of research on this backfield after just one game and think that Henderson is just going to take over.
7:11Especially because Stevenson was playing over him to start that game before the fumble.
7:16But I do think we're kind of back to where we were during the draft.
7:21I've got them back-to-back in my rest-of-season rankings right now, which by the way are available on LATEROUND.com.
7:27I can understand if you want to drop Marvin Harrison Jr.
7:31right now. At least in shallower leagues. But going back to what I said about the Bears, we should definitely pay attention
7:38to what this team has done as a whole to start the season.
7:43Not just Marvin Harrison Jr. And what they've done is feed Trey McBride like he's just been rescued from a deserted island.
7:50McBride currently has a 37% target share. He's seeing a target on over 40% of his routes run.
7:57Just for some context, last season, when McBride not only played part of the season without Marvin Harrison Jr., but when he was dominating fantasy football.
8:05He was targeted on 24.7% of his routes. There's been a more than 15% point increase in targets per route run rate
8:13for Trey McBride from 2025 to 2026. Now, as many of you know, I was lower than consensus with every major Arizona
8:20Cardinals player this year in my rankings. That unfortunately did include Trey McBride.
8:25Because if McBride maintained his peripherals last year during a really good season, given the fact that he ran 100 more routes
8:32than any other tight end since at least 2016, he was going to suffer in fantasy.
8:38Now, how do you combat that lower route volume?
8:41More volume per route run. And that's what we've seen through two games with Trey McBride.
8:46The thing is, this is not sustainable. I would bet my house, okay, maybe not my house because I have a family,
8:54but I would bet a lot that Trey McBride does not end the year with a target on 40% of his routes run.
9:02So if and when that starts to shift, those looks are going to naturally funnel to Marvin Harrison Jr.
9:08and Michael Wilson. And by the way, Michael Wilson, he's off to a slow start too.
9:13Now, don't get me wrong. I don't think Marvin Harrison Jr.
9:17has played well. I watch the games each week.
9:20He looks so disinterested because he's clearly not a focus in this offensive system.
9:25Only Bryce Lance, Jacoby Myers, and Calvin Ridley have been targeted at a lower rate per route run to start the year
9:33among relevant wide receivers compared to Marvin Harrison Jr.
9:36That's why I'm saying that you can still drop him in some formats.
9:40But I also think it's really important to have that holistic view of these offenses.
9:45That after two games, how an offense operates, it doesn't mean it's going to operate that way all season long.
9:52And for the record, this doesn't mean that I think that McBride is some screaming sell.
9:57It just means the way things have gone, I don't think it's going to be that way week in and week out.
10:05I mentioned this on the 15 transaction show with Bryce Young, but the Panthers right now, they lead the league in neutral script pass rate over expected.
10:14They're throwing it at a higher rate than any other team versus what we'd expect.
10:19Which is crazy because they ranked 22nd in that statistic last year.
10:23But another reason we've gotten this fantasy relevance from this Panthers offense this year is pace of play.
10:29They've run at a faster pace than any other team through two games, even in week two alone.
10:35When they had a nice lead, they were running fast.
10:39So you're getting this combination of more pass volume than expected alongside more plays being run.
10:44It's literally a perfect fantasy football storm. Now we'll see if this continues, but if it does, it means a player like
10:52Jalen Coker should be able to really stick around.
10:55I mean, I think he's going to stick around regardless.
10:58The 49ers cannot catch a break at wide receiver.
11:01You've got Dajon Stribling, who's out for an extended period of time.
11:05We thought Demarcus Robinson could be a thing for them.
11:09He was carted off against the Dolphins. Now there was a report floating around on Tuesday that the next man up could be Jacob Cowing.
11:17So I wanted to dig into the data to see how valid that report might be.
11:23And on our very small sample, it's pretty valid.
11:26After Demarcus Robinson left that game and on plays when Mike Evans and Brock Purdy were on the field, the only other
11:33wide receivers to run even one route against the Dolphins were obviously Debo Samuel, but then Jacob Cowing.
11:39Cowing actually had a really impressive collegiate production profile, but he's undersized.
11:44That's one of the biggest issues. But this being a trend show, he's trending in the right direction to get more playing time with Robinson out.
11:52And data really backs up that news story. So yeah, it appears to be happening for Parker Washington.
11:59We got a much more neutral game script for the Jags in week two.
12:03We got to see a little bit more of what this offense might look like usage wise for most of the season.
12:11Week one was kind of weird from a game script perspective.
12:15And my goodness, Parker Washington had a 90% route share.
12:18The Jags ran out of 11 personnel more in week two than they did in week one.
12:24But when they were in 12 personnel, the odd man out was Brian Thomas Jr.
12:29Washington ran around on every drop back out of 12 personnel.
12:33For the record, after the Jags by last year, which is when Washington started playing more in that offense, Washington only had
12:40a 57% route share out of 12 personnel. So far this season, among all wide receivers with 30 or more routes run,
12:48Washington is fourth in PPR points per outrun, he's third in yards per outrun, and he's second in targets per outrun.
12:55He's not going to finish the year being targeted on 40% of his routes.
12:59But this is a sincerely amazing role for Parker Washington in this offense, which is why I currently have him ranked as
13:07a wide receiver one rest of season. Baker Mayfield has been really struggling.
13:11He hasn't scored 20 standard fantasy points in the game since week 10 of the 2025 season.
13:17And his splits with and without Mike Evans on the field are honestly frightening.
13:22Since joining the Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield has a plus .15 EPA per drop back and .52 standard fantasy points per drop back
13:29when Mike Evans has been on the field. I'm sure you need some context there.
13:35That dates back to 2023. During that timeframe, among quarterbacks with 300 or more pass attempts, there's 54 of them.
13:41Mayfield's EPA per drop back with Evans on the field, it ranks tied for fourth best.
13:47The only quarterbacks who have been better are Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen.
13:52Meanwhile, his fantasy points per drop back, .52, that's 10th best.
13:56And someone like Justin Fields, Marcus Mariota, and Anthony Richardson, they rank ahead of him there.
14:01So among like the actual starting quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield's like 7th best in fantasy points per drop back with Mike Evans.
14:08Without Evans, that fantasy points per drop back is .41.
14:12That's tied for 32nd. We're talking worse than Derek Carr, worse than Russell Wilson, worse than Jake Browning.
14:18His EPA per drop back is minus .01 without Mike Evans.
14:21That ranks 31st. It's barely ahead of Aiden O'Connell.
14:25This isn't some small sample size either. He's had over 800 drop backs without Mike Evans on the field.
14:31He's almost at 1,200 with him. Now I'm not saying that this is the problem, but I think it's a problem.
14:38I think we're going to need multiple good performances from Mayfield and fantasy football before we let them back into our single quarterback league lineups.
14:47Speaking of the Bucs, one player who no one seems to be talking about right now is Ted Hurst.
14:53I think he's actually a pretty good stash. He should at least be on your radar.
14:59He's actually getting legitimate run in the Buccaneers offense.
15:02He's a 72% route share. He's seen 17% of Tampa Bay's targets when no one on that team is above 18.3%.
15:09And he's actually second on the team right now behind only Bucky Irving and expected fantasy points.
15:15He's tied with Emeka Ibuka. That means his usage should be producing way more fantasy points than it's currently producing.
15:21He's underperformed by nearly 6 PPR points per game.
15:24He's just playing a pretty volatile role. Hurst has seen an average depth of target of nearly 18 yards.
15:31Ibuka is about 4 yards lower. And then we've seen a couple of end zone targets for Hurst as well.
15:38That's why his expected total is higher than you'd probably expect.
15:41The Bucs are running out of 11 personnel at the highest rate in the league.
15:47That's allowing Hurst to be on the field with Emeka Ibuka and Chris Godwin.
15:51And maybe that changes as Jalen McMillan gets healthier.
15:54But Hurst, at the very least, you should keep an eye on him.
15:59A lot of you are probably wondering what to do with Quinshawn Judkins.
16:03And my answer is that I don't think there's a ton that you can do right now.
16:09I will say this. His usage from week 2 needs a little bit more context than what was provided in the weekly data dump.
16:17Judkins technically didn't see a route share change from week 1 to week 2, even without Dylan Sampson.
16:23In fact, his route share fell by 5 percentage points.
16:27He did, however, in week 2, see 5 targets.
16:30And week 1, he had 2. But we know that route share is going to be more predictive for running backs this time of year.
16:38There is some good news here though. And this is the context that wasn't talked about in the data dump.
16:45Judkins did see an uptick in 3rd down snap share on Sunday.
16:49And I'm not just talking about 3rd and shorts here.
16:53Judkins played 50% of the Browns' snaps on 3rd down and 5 or more.
16:57That was 17% in week 1. Unfortunately, a lot of those plays resulted in more pass blocking than actually running routes.
17:05So essentially, I just want to see more. However, I want to see more of Judkins without Dylan Sampson in the lineup.
17:12I want to see more of the Browns in neutral game scripts.
17:16Where maybe the matchup calls to use him more on 3rd downs as a pass catcher.
17:22There's a chance that Judkins sees a better route share moving forward than what we saw in week 2.
17:28And that could go a very, very long way for his fantasy value because this Browns team isn't expected to be that good offensively.
17:36Something that's keeping me from ranking Lamar Jackson higher in my overall rest of season rankings right now is how he's been
17:44deployed as a rusher to start the year. After 2 games, Jackson has 1 designed run.
17:491. In 2025, even with him being banged up, he averaged 2.2 designed rushes per game.
17:55Right now, he's at .5. There's a downward trend here, unfortunately.
17:58In 2024, Lamar was at 4.8 designed rushes per game.
18:02Now, his scrambling has mostly stayed the same. 2.6 scrambles per game in 2024.
18:062.3 in 2025. And so far this year, he's at 7 scrambles.
18:11So, 3.5 per game. But look, we've got a new offensive system in Baltimore.
18:15We've got a new coordinator. And there's something that could be driving this.
18:20They're playing more from under center. 29.5% of Baltimore's passes this season have come under center.
18:25And 2024 and 2025, that number was 15.8%. So, it's not far from double the rate this year.
18:31When teams are under center, there's less opportunity for designed runs from the quarterback.
18:36I actually was researching this for this episode. And I came across a sub stack called Gridiron Deep Dive.
18:43This guy named Robbie Marriage runs it. I don't know him.
18:46I'm not affiliated with him. But if I can shout out any content creator trying to just get their name out there,
18:54I'll gladly do it when the analysis is great.
18:57And this analysis is very legit. He did something in 2025 that was really thorough on modern offenses going shotgun versus under center.
19:05He concluded the following as part of it. Quote, So look, this is definitely something I'm going to monitor with Lamar Jackson.
19:12He seems like his old self in terms of his rushing ability.
19:16But he may need to scramble more this year if he's going to maintain his cheat code ability in fantasy football.
19:23That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
19:28If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
19:37And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
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