1114: Regression Candidates
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
23 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 4, 2026
Published
Tue, August 4, 2026
9
Player insights
9
Players mentioned
Topics
Davante AdamsDrake MayeJaxon Smith-NjigbaMark AndrewsMichael WilsonPatrick MahomesSaquon BarkleyTrey McBrideZay Flowers
Player analysis
Player insights
Davante Adams
NegativeUsage7:16
JJ Zachariason notes that while Adams performed near touchdown expectations, his 1.93 end zone targets per game were unsustainable; historically, wide receivers exceeding 1.5 end zone targets per game see a 35% drop in that metric the following year, leading to an average decline of two points per game.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeProjection22:27
JJ Zachariason warns that Drake Maye's 58% completion rate on deep passes (15+ air yards) is likely to regress. Historical data for quarterbacks with similar high-efficiency deep-ball seasons shows an average 7% drop in completion rate and a 1.2 point-per-game decline in fantasy production the following year.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
PositiveBust28:13
JJ Zachariason notes that Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 2025 efficiency, including an 11 yards-per-target rate and +11% catch rate over expected, is unsustainable. Historically, players with these metrics see significant dips in both efficiency and PPR points per game the following season.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveUsage10:41
JJ Zachariason highlights Andrews as a risky bet due to a career-worst 1.23 yards per route run and a career-low 8.0-yard average depth of target in 2025. While historical data suggests his yards after catch (YAC) rate will likely improve from his sub-3.0 mark, similar tight ends historically failed to see a significant boost in fantasy production.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeUsage33:31
JJ Zachariason notes that Michael Wilson's 631 routes run in 2025 is a high-water mark that typically regresses by about four routes per game the following year, suggesting a slight decline in his usage floor.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveValue26:46
JJ Zachariason identifies Patrick Mahomes as a candidate for positive regression regarding deep-ball efficiency. After two seasons of sub-40% completion rates on deep throws, historical trends suggest he should see an uptick in completion percentage and fantasy points per game.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveProjection16:39
JJ Zachariason expects a bounce-back for Barkley, who scored only once on 14 goal-line attempts last year. Given his career 34% conversion rate on goal-line rushes, Barkley is a prime candidate for positive regression to double-digit touchdowns, even with Jalen Hurts present in the offense.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeUsage32:21
JJ Zachariason points out that Trey McBride's 2025 route volume was an outlier, running 67 more routes than any other tight end since 2011. Even if he maintains his fantasy points per route run, his total fantasy output is likely to decline due to expected regression in route volume.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBreakout15:38
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Zay Flowers, citing his efficiency as a machine and the likelihood of increased passing volume for the Ravens, who were historically run-heavy last year. Flowers could see a monster year if he gains more end zone work alongside a team-wide uptick in pass attempts.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:47This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen What's up everyone, it's JJ Zacharyarysen in this episode 1114 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:57Thanks for tuning in. People tend to think of regression to the mean in a negative way.
1:03That if someone regresses, that someone got worse. They did something great, and then that greatness turned into goodness or mediocrity.
1:10But regression can work in the opposite direction too.
1:13Regression to the mean is the tendency for unusually extreme performances, whether they're really good or really bad, to move closer to what's typical over time.
1:23If someone does something completely out of this world, chances are he won't be able to repeat that performance.
1:30On the flip side, if someone gets all the opportunity in the world and just doesn't come through, it's easy to assume that he's just bad at football.
1:40But what if the evidence suggests otherwise? What if he was simply on the wrong side of variance?
1:46I say it all the time. I analyze fantasy football through numbers because fantasy football is a game about numbers.
1:53And regression is one of the biggest aspects of that.
1:57Extreme outcomes are often a mix of skill and randomness.
2:00And while skill tends to stick around, randomness usually doesn't.
2:04That's why regression is so important to understand. I'd argue it's the most important concept in fantasy football.
2:10On today's episode, we're going to dig into regression to the mean.
2:15We'll look at players, we'll look at teams who are likely to look different this season.
2:20Not because they've suddenly become better or worse, but because some of what happened in 2025 simply wasn't sustainable.
2:27Some players benefited from that. Others got burned by it.
2:31Understanding the difference can help you identify some of the best values in your fantasy drafts this year.
2:37Now, before getting into all of that, I did want to send another reminder to check out the late round draft guide.
2:45There's over 270 pages of content that includes game theory, strategy, ways to spot breakouts and busts, players to target, players to avoid, and more.
2:54You get cheat sheets in the guide, which includes a cheat sheet of our new market score metric.
3:01It's all updated weekly directly to your email inbox.
3:04Check it out and learn more at lateroound.com. I think the easiest place to start with this episode is with the Rams.
3:12Now, obviously, a team led by Sean McVay, and with the amount of offensive talent they have, it's going to be good offensively.
3:20But that was also just on another level last year.
3:23Now, the Rams had Mike LaFleur now coaching the Arizona Cardinals as their offensive coordinator for three years.
3:30He got Matthew Stafford for 15, 16, and 17 games during that three-year stretch.
3:35The Rams during those seasons threw for 26, 22, and 46 touchdowns.
3:39Their touchdown rate, touchdowns divided by attempts, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 7.7%.
3:43Since 2011, 14 teams had touchdown rates of 7% or higher in one season while having played another.
3:50So the Rams obviously don't qualify for this. Only one of those teams stayed above the 7% mark year over year, but
3:57that team, the 2011 Packers, still saw a decline in touchdown rate.
4:02They went from 9.2%, which is absolutely insane. I mean, that's peak Aaron Rodgers stuff right there.
4:08But it went all the way down to 7.2%.
4:11Those teams averaged 42.1 passing touchdowns in that high touchdown rate season.
4:15On average, they fell down to 29.6 passing touchdowns the following year.
4:20Now, some of you are going to say, well, they got Devontae Adams.
4:24He drove this figure up. And yeah, for sure, he helped things out.
4:29But we also can't just assume that something like that's going to be sustainable year in and year out.
4:36Adams in particular is really interesting because obviously he scored 14 times last year.
4:41That's a super high number given the amount of volume that he actually saw.
4:46And he was often just like used as their goal line back essentially.
4:50His expected touchdown total was right around that mark.
4:54He didn't actually outperform in the touchdown column last year.
4:57And I would imagine a lot of people are going to point that out.
5:02That Adams won't regress because he performed around expectation when it came to touchdowns last year.
5:08But my argument against that is the fact that Adams tied for the most end zone targets last year of any wide receiver since 2011.
5:17And he had more inside the five targets, inside the 10 targets, and end zone targets per game than any other wide receiver in that sample.
5:26His other peripherals were fine. And he converted at a pretty normal rate.
5:31He just had so much volume around the end zone.
5:35That alone is just naturally going to be difficult to repeat.
5:38And here's the math behind that. Adams had 1.93 end zone targets per game last year.
5:44Absolutely absurd. That number basically laps every other wide receiver since 2011.
5:49But if you look at the wide receivers who had over 1.5 end zone targets per game since 2011, when those guys
5:56played eight or more games the following year, they've historically seen a 35% drop from one season to the next and end zone targets per game.
6:06And naturally, their points per game dropped by about two.
6:09Now, this isn't to say that Devontae Adams is an avoid for me, though I have toyed with the idea because I am a little bit below market.
6:19The reason it's not so obvious, though, is because I do think the Rams are still going to be really good offensively.
6:27But do keep in mind that it would be shocking, legitimately shocking, to see Adams and Matthew Stafford repeat their 2025 performance.
6:35So all of that about the Rams, that's a more obvious spot for regression this year.
6:41If you want to go a little bit more outside the box, look at Baltimore and specifically Mark Andrews.
6:48There's a very real chance that Mark Andrews is just cooked.
6:52I don't think we know for sure, but let's keep an open mind.
6:56With that being said, last season, he had a 2.15 yards after the catch per reception rate.
7:02That's according to PFF. He's never had a season below 3.19 in that statistic.
7:07And even in 2024, if you just want to say, oh, this is just Mark Andrews getting old, he was at 3.58.
7:15Now, the interesting thing is that Andrews had a lower average depth of target last year, too.
7:21It was the lowest of his career at 8.0 yards.
7:25So all of that combined to give him just an atrocious 1.23 yards per route run, the worst of his career by a huge margin.
7:34His other lowest was 1.88, which did come in 2024.
7:37I would actually anticipate that number improving from one year to the next, but there's a catch.
7:43We've had 13 tight ends since 2011 have a yak per reception below 3 in one year while hitting 50 or more
7:51targets in that season and the following season. 12 of the 13 players improved on that number year over year, and 11
7:59of them, they escaped the 3.0 and below bucket entirely.
8:03On average, they've gone from 2.6 yards after the catch per catch to 4.13.
8:08That's a strong improvement. The problem is that even though they got better after the catch, we didn't see a massive improvement in fantasy production from those players.
8:18Now, albeit, it's a smaller sample size. But one of the guys that saw a decline happen, the only one who got
8:26worse year over year, was end-of-career Tony Gonzalez from 2012 to 2013.
8:30So look, my stance here is that Andrews isn't necessarily a total fade.
8:35He's just a sincerely risky bet, even with favorable yak regression coming.
8:39Now, let's keep this theme going with the Ravens.
8:42One area where Andrews could be helped tremendously is with passing volume.
8:47I feel like one of the most overlooked storylines in fantasy football is how unbelievably run-heavy the Ravens were last year, just in terms of raw volume.
8:56Baltimore had their second lowest pass rate over expected of the entire Lamar Jackson era last year.
9:02But because they ran fewer plays and with Lamar Jackson banged up, they finished the season with just 24.8 pass attempts per game.
9:11Since 2011, we've had 17 teams with next season data get to fewer than 28 pass attempts per game.
9:17Those teams on average saw an uptick of 4.4 pass attempts per game, 76 raw pass attempts, and nearly 400 passing yards year over year.
9:26Just four of those teams stayed under the 28 pass attempts per game mark.
9:31And remember, Baltimore was under 25 pass attempts per game.
9:35This is a key reason that Andrews might be okay.
9:38It's a bigger reason to be bullish on Zay Flowers.
9:42The dude was an efficiency machine last year. He took another step forward.
9:47And if he's able to see a little bit more work close to the end zone while the Ravens take a step
9:55forward in passing volume, it could be a monster year for Flowers.
9:59I'm bullish on the Eagles offense turning things around this year.
10:03And someone who would benefit from that greatly is Saquon Barkley.
10:07Barkley was disappointing last year from a fantasy perspective.
10:10He scored fewer than 15 PPR points per game.
10:13A huge reason for that lack of production in fantasy, at least the lack of production given his cost, was what he did at the goal line.
10:23We know that Jalen Hurts is going to steal touchdowns in that offense, but Barkley still had 14 goal line attempts last year.
10:31That was a top 15 number across the league at running back.
10:35Each one of those running backs who hit at least 14 goal line rushes scored at least four times on those attempts.
10:43Saquon Barkley scored once. Now obviously Barkley isn't benefiting from the really short stuff at the goal line, but still this is really bad.
10:52We just don't have a large sample of running backs who converted so few goal line attempts one year, who then went
11:00on to see a bulky number of goal line rushes the following year.
11:04It's not to say that's going to happen to Barkley.
11:08It's just such a rarity because he was so bad at converting last year.
11:13With that being said, outside of 2025, Barkley's converted about 34% of his goal line rushes.
11:19Last year to repeat, he was at 7%. I would anticipate a nice bounce back from him, at least at the goal
11:27line, allowing him to get that double digit touchdown mark once again.
11:31And if the Eagles offense does take a step forward versus last year, that shouldn't even be at the detriment of Jalen
11:39Hurts, especially because Hurts was far below his typical rushing volume totals last year.
11:44But Philly just might score more in general. When talking about regression, of course general team environment changes are a big reason
11:52we see natural shifts in statistics from one year to the next.
11:56We should always consider context when we're looking at this stuff.
12:00And that's important when I bring up these next two teams, the Vikings and the Raiders.
12:06Both struggled last year offensively, ranking bottom 10 in drives ending in scores and drives ending in touchdowns.
12:12They were inefficient on offense. That can lower the number of plays that a team runs.
12:18If they're not converting, they're not sustaining drives. They're not giving us more plays for fantasy purposes.
12:24But then on top of that, they ran at a slower pace.
12:28Their seconds per play rates were both bottom 10 in the league.
12:33That resulted in the Vikings running 56.1 plays per game last year.
12:37Vegas was at 55.8. Now Miami was in there too, but the other two teams, they're a little more interesting given the fantasy implications.
12:45But sure, throw Miami in the mix too. 16 teams since 2011 had 58 or fewer plays per game run in a season.
12:54The following year, those teams saw an average uptick in plays run per game of 4.8.
12:59That equates to about 80 more plays run across the season.
13:03And many of those additional plays, they converted to passing plays too.
13:08So I think we should see a little bit more passing volume in those two offenses this year.
13:14All of those teams with very few plays run in one season, every single one of them saw an uptick in plays run per game the following year.
13:24With so much change in Minnesota, given the probable starting quarterback, and then the sweeping change in Vegas, we should expect more plays run for both offenses.
13:34That's great news obviously for the stud players like Justin Jefferson, Ashton Gentium, Brock Bowers.
13:39I'm not going to throw Miami in the mix there though, because I do think they're in an incredibly unique situation.
13:47There's a lot of interesting deep ball data with quarterback each year, and it's no different this year.
13:53Drake May was a baller last year on deep passes, and yes, of course there's ability embedded in this.
14:00Some dudes are just better at converting throws 15 or more air yards down the field.
14:06But May completed over 58% of his passes that traveled 15 or more air yards last season.
14:12Among quarterbacks with 30 or more of those types of passes, that's only been done eight other times since 2011.
14:19And since 2011, there have been 24 quarterbacks who had 30 or more deep and intermediate throws in year N, and in
14:27year N plus one, where they had a 53% completion rate on those throws in that original year.
14:33So Drake May, 58%, he certainly falls into this group.
14:37Of those 24 quarterbacks who had year over year 30 or more deep ball throws with a 53% completion rate, they average
14:45a drop in completion rate of 7 percentage points.
14:4875% of those players dip below 53%. And Drew Brees is a huge reason that that looks as good as it does
14:56because he appeared six times on that list. He held at 53% or greater in three of those seasons.
15:03Meanwhile, these quarterbacks saw a drop of 1.2 points per game year over year, largely because they weren't converting on those deep passes quite as frequently.
15:12Now I know the Patriots added A.J. Brown. I do think that Drake May is a special player.
15:18He could easily buck this trend. It's just something to keep in mind.
15:23You can look on the opposite side of this though too, because deep ball completion rate, it's a number that regresses.
15:31We see a decent number of quarterbacks with below 40% completion rates on deep throws.
15:36There have been 145 of them since 2011 who were below that 40% mark.
15:41And who had 30 or more deep ball attempts in one year and the next year.
15:47Those quarterbacks typically saw an uptick in deep ball completion rate of about 5 percentage points year over year.
15:53And they usually increase their fantasy points per game as well by a full point.
15:59That's not a huge shock though. If they're completing those passes more frequently, they're going to score more points.
16:06But this is good news for some relevant quarterbacks this year, including Baker Mayfield, C.J.
16:11Stroud, Jackson Dart, Bo Nix, and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is particularly interesting because he used to have seasons above that 45 completion rate mark all the time.
16:21But over the last two, he's been at 32% and 36%.
16:25That's pretty low. Patrick Mahomes has not been good at converting deep passes the last couple of years.
16:31It's not a guarantee that he sees this massive uptick.
16:35But I do think that we should project it to happen just strictly based on regression.
16:40They just need their down the field threats to stay healthy.
16:44And a lot of those other quarterbacks I just named, they have additional help coming.
16:50That should aid them in regressing to the mean.
16:53Jackson Smith and Jigba just put together one of the most impressive wide receiver seasons that we've ever seen.
17:00And typically when things go really well for a player, it's tough to repeat that production.
17:05JSN had a yards per target rate of 11 last year.
17:09We've had 28 wide receivers since 2011 who had between 10.5 and 11.5 yards per target, while seeing 50 or more targets
17:17in year N and in year N plus one.
17:21So one season and the following season. On average, those players have seen a dip in yards per target of 1.8.
17:28Their PPR points per game, it dropped by nearly 1.6.
17:32That's not the only thing that was pretty crazy from JSN last year.
17:36He had a catch rate over expected of plus 11%.
17:40And again, historically, players with rates above 10%, they almost always regress.
17:44Of the 45 since 2011 who are above that mark, the average drop in actual catch rate was nearly 8 percentage points.
17:52And again, those guys saw a dip in points per game of about 1.5.
17:57The list goes on and on for JSN. He was great last year, phenomenal, but he probably won't be as efficient this year.
18:05But there is one area where things could look better for him in 2026, and that's with overall volume.
18:12The Seahawks had a minus 6.7 pass rate over expected last year.
18:16Teams who have been between the minus 5% and the minus 8% range since 2011, there's 48 teams, they've typically seen that
18:24number increase by over 3 percentage points year over year.
18:28Pass attempts per game, that raises by 2.5 and pass rates by about 3 percentage points.
18:34Seattle's defense should be excellent again this year. But there's no doubt that the Seattle offense was in a great situation in general last year.
18:43They ran the fewest number of plays in the league while trailing.
18:47We usually see some volatility with defenses year over year.
18:50So odds are that the Seahawks defense, it won't be quite as good as last year.
18:56And that could give the Seahawks offense an uptick in passing volume, which hopefully will combat some of this JSN regression.
19:04The last item today has to do with the Arizona offense.
19:08I think the Cardinals are unbelievably interesting this year for fantasy football.
19:12They have really strong weapons, and such question marks a quarterback.
19:16Well, first off, I think it's important that we're all aware the Cardinals led the league last year in pass attempts.
19:23And at over 38 pass attempts per game, regression is likely.
19:2775% of the teams with 35 or more pass attempts per game over the last 5 years saw fewer pass attempts the next year.
19:36All those dropbacks also led to a lot of routes run for their pass catchers.
19:41Trey McBride ran 67 more routes than any other tight end since at least 2011.
19:47I said this before, but if McBride ran the second most routes at tight end last year, or just tied for first, think of it that way.
19:56At his same fantasy points per route run rate, he would have fallen from 18.6 PPR points per game to 15.4, which is still a great season.
20:06But given what he did in the touchdown column, it doesn't look quite as great.
20:11It's a little bit scary. But then Michael Wilson, he ran a lot of routes last year too.
20:18Only Jamar Chase ran more routes in the regular season at wide receiver than Michael Wilson did according to PFF.
20:25And it was by just one route. We usually see wide receivers with 600 or more routes in one year.
20:32Michael Wilson was at 631. We usually see them fall in routes run per game by about four year over year.
20:40That's something to keep in mind. Now there are still reasons to believe Arizona is going to be pass heavy this year.
20:48They have a bad defense. And as I talked about in the schedule analysis episode, their schedule is actually brutal, which means
20:55more negative game scripts and more passing. But look, the bottom line here, there's just so much volatility.
21:02I'd anticipate a lower pass rate. And I do think that with a healthy Marvin Harrison Jr., it could flatten out some
21:10of that upside for everyone in this offense. Now look, there are obviously a ton of different things that I could have
21:18talked about on today's show because regression is everywhere in this numbers driven game.
21:23But I wanted to call out what I think are some of the biggest ones, some of the biggest items when it
21:31comes to regression, especially at the team level. Hopefully it made you think a little bit differently about some of these teams and some of these players.
21:40That's it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
21:45If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
21:54And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
21:59Thanks for listening, everyone. As a reminder, the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, we will be live on Wednesday at noon
22:07with the Late Round Fantasy Football show. We're also doing a lot of live stream best ball drafts, so make sure you subscribe, youtube.com slash at LateRoundFF.
22:17We also have another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro dropping this week, and then later in the week, another episode of Late Round Perspectives.
22:26It's that time of year. I'm so excited. I hope you are too.
22:31Talk to you guys soon. This is an iHeart Podcast.
22:34Guaranteed human.
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