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The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast on Drake Maye

Podcast1114: Regression Candidates
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Of those 24 quarterbacks who had year over year 30 or more deep ball throws with a 53% completion rate, they average a drop in completion rate of 7 percentage points.
Mentioned at 22:27 – 25:12Captured by STACKED 2 hr after posting

STACKED’s take

Negative signalProjection

Maye's high deep-ball completion rate is likely to regress toward the mean.

JJ Zachariason warns that Drake Maye's 58% completion rate on deep passes (15+ air yards) is likely to regress. Historical data for quarterbacks with similar high-efficiency deep-ball seasons shows an average 7% drop in completion rate and a 1.2 point-per-game decline in fantasy production the following year.

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