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1:03This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
1:06JJ Zacharyarysen. What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen. In this episode 1127 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
1:14For anyone who's new to the podcast, first off, welcome.
1:17But second, on this sleeper show every week, I do a quick recap at the top of the show on how things went down the previous week.
1:25It's like 30 seconds long, but it's a way to hold myself accountable and to be transparent with how my picks went the previous week.
1:33As I've said, I won't hit on a ton of these sleepers.
1:37They're sleepers for a reason. But I do think it's helpful to have a quick rundown of what just happened before we look forward.
1:45Week 1 is always a tough one because we know so little about usage.
1:49But there were some good picks in there. Jalen Coker was the best shout of all of them.
1:55He scored almost 34 PPR points. Matthew Golden had a good day.
1:59Tyler Shuck fortunately came through. Devon Vele, Dontavian Wicks, they were good dart throws.
2:04And Debo Samuel, he scored 18 points. Jawan Johnson found the end zone and he scored over 14 points too.
2:10But yeah, like most week ones, there were some mega misses.
2:14Baker Mayfield and Kenneth Gainwell, they were both pretty bad.
2:17Chris Rodriguez didn't see the workload that was possible in that matchup against the Browns.
2:22Keaton Mitchell stunk. Terrence Ferguson dropped a big ol' goose egg.
2:25Trey Tucker, Tajay Spears, they weren't very good either.
2:28I'm not totally upset with that week one performance, but it'll hopefully go down as one of the worst ones of the season.
2:35We're on to week two. Before getting to the sleepers this week though, did you guys know that we send content via the Late Round newsletter?
2:44It's true and it's free. You can get the 15 transactions column directly to your inbox every Tuesday morning.
2:50We'll have some matchup stuff for you from Brandon Gadula and there's a wrap up email that Kitchen puts together every single
2:57week, directly to your email inbox and it's all for free.
3:00Learn more and subscribe to that newsletter by heading to LATEROUND.COM.
3:04We'll kick things off as we always do with players rostered in 50-80% of Yahoo leagues.
3:09The two quarterbacks in this tier, I like them, but I definitely don't love them.
3:14They're actually ranked as QB2s in my rankings this week.
3:17There's a lot of great matchups for quarterbacks in week two, just in general.
3:22The first guy though is Jordan Love. The Packers had a middle of the road pass rate over expected in week one,
3:29which isn't always the norm for them under this coaching staff.
3:32The score makes it seem like the game script was terrible, but Green Bay only ran 19% of their plays this past
3:39week while trailing by a touchdown or more. And just 24% of them were run while trailing in general.
3:45Those are more or less average numbers across the league.
3:49We're expecting a favorable script for the Packers against the Jets.
3:52But they're not massive favorites given they're on the road.
3:55But they do have a healthy 24.5 point total.
3:58So I think Love could be okay in this matchup.
4:01Baker Mayfield was not great in week one. I was a little bit worried about that because I'm more bullish in the
4:08Cincinnati defense than the consensus this year. But even still, I didn't necessarily expect just 11 standard points.
4:14You might look at this Cleveland matchup and you want to stay away because there won't be enough passing volume.
4:21But just remember, if you're searching for garbage time at college, as a quarterback, it usually takes a garbage performance to create that garbage time.
4:29If the Bucs are ahead in the game, there's a good chance that Baker has something to do with it.
4:35Tampa Bay is a 25 point total. We saw what Trevor Lawrence did to this defense last week.
4:41I think Baker is a firm QB too. Shifting to running back, Jordan Mason is now on IR.
4:47That makes Aaron Jones a very obvious play from this group.
4:50Jones had an okay enough 43% snap share in week one.
4:54He handled 39% of Minnesota's rushes. That was a 33rd ranked share among all running backs in week one.
5:00His route share was a little bit weak at just 23%.
5:03That's definitely a concern. The Vikings just didn't use their running backs that much as receivers this past week.
5:09Jordan Mason had just a 16% route share. Only Jacksonville had fewer running back routes in week one.
5:15I can't imagine it's going to be that low this week.
5:19And with Mason out, Jones definitely is going to get more run as a receiver.
5:24Even with the lack of receiving work last week, the two combined for about 21 expected PPR points.
5:29And they get the Bears this week. Chicago is great offensively.
5:33That's going to force the Vikings to have to keep pace.
5:36But their defense is not that strong. Chuba Hubbard had a very usable performance against the Bears last week.
5:42So Aaron Jones is a really solid option. I liked you Corey Krosky Merritt this week against the Cowboys, but he's rostered
5:50in too many leagues to get a shout on today's show.
5:53So let's go with the next best thing in Washington.
5:56That's Rashad White. White only saw 22% of the team's rushes in week one, but he played 40% of their offensive snaps.
6:03Part of that was because Washington trailed on 81% of their offensive plays, which was a fringe top 10 number last week.
6:10But we kind of know what Washington is trying to do with their backfield and how they divvy it up.
6:17White's more of the pass catcher. Bill is more of the early down runner.
6:21We saw that in week one. White played 93% of their third down snaps.
6:26And then he played just 24% of their early down ones.
6:29This is really just a matchup thing from the perspective that Dallas' defense still didn't look all that good in week one.
6:36Devin Singletary, he had some success through the air too.
6:40You match that up with the fact that Washington could trail in this game as road underdogs.
6:45I don't love Rashad White, but there aren't many true sleeper running backs this early on in the season.
6:51Matthew Golden is still under that 80% rostered mark.
6:54And something tells me that this could be the last week where that's the case.
6:59Golden had the second highest expected fantasy point total last week at wide receiver, according to Late Rounds Formula.
7:05I talked all about this on the 15 transactions episode.
7:08We're talking 87% route share, a 30% target share, and multiple end zone targets.
7:13The Packers have an implied team total of nearly 25 points this week against the Jets.
7:18And it's not a defense that I'm overly worried about in general.
7:22My weekly and rest of season rankings are far more bullish on Matthew Golden than what the market's saying.
7:28So it makes sense to call him out today.
7:31And I'll go back to Jalen Coker too, as long as he's healthy.
7:35As I said on the 10 trends episode, he's been out targeting Ted O'Reilly McMillan over the last seven games.
7:41And while I don't think this game against Atlanta is going to shoot out the same way that last week's game did
7:48against Chicago, it's not a bad matchup. The Falcons ran man defense at the sixth highest rate last week.
7:54And just like I said last week with the Bears matchup, Coker can cook against man.
8:00We also just saw the Falcons give up a 10 yard A-dot to Aaron Rodgers.
8:04So a big play is definitely possible for Jalen Coker.
8:08Xavier Worthy had an 85% route share and a 24% target share against the Broncos.
8:12It equated to about 10 expected points. That's not fantastic, but we know Denver is probably going to be a tough passing matchup this year.
8:20The Broncos also run a lot of man. They rank seventh in week one and percentage of plays out of man.
8:27This week, Kansas City gets Indianapolis, who ranked top 10 in man rate last year, and they were by far the number
8:34one team in man usage in week one. Now obviously there's a one-week sample size problem here, and there's matchup stuff attached to it.
8:42But it's something to note, because Xavier Worthy, he's typically seen an uptick in yards per outrun against man versus zone.
8:49Rasheed Rice, completely the opposite direction. Since Worthy entered the league, he's seen a 1.36 yards per outrun rate against man and a 1.26 against zone.
8:57So slightly better against man. Rasheed Rice's splits are 1.03 against man and 3.05 against zone.
9:02So I think this could be a similar game plan as it was last week for Kansas City, which would mean a
9:09little bit more Xavier Worthy than we'll typically see.
9:12I'm going back to Deebo Samuel this week, especially with Dajon Stripling's injury.
9:16Samuel should see a healthy number of routes, and even in a game where the 49ers didn't have to go heavy with
9:23the pass last week, he still finished with over 13 expected fantasy points.
9:28Now he's up against a very beatable Dolphins team, he's not a bad play at all.
9:33You could look at Hunter Henry in this tier, given A.J.
9:36Brown's injury. I said it earlier this week, but I think there's a chance that we see the Patriots go with a
9:43heavier approach offensively, and Henry had an okay enough 62% route share in week 1.
9:48The Steelers actually ran every defensive play last week out of zone.
9:52Largely because of the matchup, but even if that drops significantly, they're probably going to be a heavy zone team under new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.
10:00With Drake May under center over the last couple of years, Hunter Henry's yards per route run against zone is 1.8.
10:07Against man, it's 1.07. So he's an interesting play.
10:10And then another shout is with Jake Ferguson, who didn't do a whole lot in week 1.
10:15He did run a route though on 75% of Dallas' dropbacks, and he gets the Commanders this week.
10:21Over the last season plus, no team allows more PPR points per target to tight ends than Washington does.
10:27So if he's out there running routes, there's a chance he's also scoring points.
10:32Moving on to this next tier, we're looking at guys rostered in 20-50% of Yahoo leagues.
10:37At quarterback, I don't love the matchup after what they did to Matthew Stafford in week 1.
10:42But let's be real, Malik Willis is probably going to be frequently featured on this episode every week.
10:48The Dolphins' defense is not very good. It's going to force Miami to throw more than they probably want.
10:54And that creates scrambling opportunities for Malik Willis. In week 1 against an inferior defense in the 49ers, Malik Willis was pressured
11:01at the 6th highest rate in the league. Matthew Stafford against the 49ers was pressured at the 5th highest rate.
11:08Stafford's a statue though, he's not going to run.
11:11Willis finished the day with 5 scrambles. That was tied for 3rd most in the league.
11:16This is going to be the thesis for a lot of these matchups.
11:20Willis has the legs to give us production. And then anything he can do as a thrower is kind of the cherry on top.
11:28It's what we used to do with Justin Fields.
11:30It makes Willis viable in fantasy football. Moving on to running back, how about Woody Marks?
11:36I'll say it again, running back is usually tough for this sleepers episode because there are only so many to reasonably choose from.
11:43But despite David Montgomery's performance in week 1, they were actually encouraging peripherals for Woody Marks.
11:48Marks only played one fewer snap than David Montgomery did.
11:51They also saw a near identical early down and 3rd down snap share.
11:55Montgomery is the goal line guy though, and Mark saw a couple more routes.
12:00But it was more split than people probably realize given one dude scored 29 PPR points, the other just scored 5.
12:07If that kind of split continues, we're going to see both these running backs from a production standpoint meet a little bit more in the middle.
12:15We're not going to see quite the difference that we saw last week.
12:19And again, this is a game where we could just see more scoring in general.
12:24Bucky Irving, he had a pretty good outing last week against the same defense too.
12:29This could be another week for Kalon Black. Whether the usage in week 1 was due to Christian McCaffrey having cramps or
12:36not, the 49ers are 13.5 point favorites against the Dolphins.
12:39A positive game script could easily yield more work for Black.
12:43And I'd almost expect that to happen unless San Francisco just has some jet lag coming back from Australia.
12:49There are definitely worse running back plays out there than Black this week.
12:53Emmitt Johnson is another one to keep an eye on.
12:56If any of you remember, I was a big, big fan of Emmitt Johnson during the draft process.
13:02He had a true 3 down skill set. In week 1, he played 36% of Kansas City's offensive snaps and he saw a 23% rush share.
13:10He even saw a couple of targets on a 22% route share.
13:14Now to be fair, that rush share was closer to just 13% before a final garbage time drive.
13:20But we at least know that garbage time stuff is possible for him.
13:24And he's still mixed in on about 26% of their early down snaps before that garbage time hit.
13:30The Chiefs are also 6.5 point favorites. This is like the diet version of the Kalon Black recommendation.
13:36I only have one wide receiver in this tier and it's Khalil Shakir.
13:40You have to love this Bills-Lions game on Thursday night with a 54.5 point total.
13:45Hopefully, fingers crossed, it's going to be fireworks. We want to get exposure to potentially high scoring games and Shakir is one way of doing so.
13:53He was third on the team in route share in week 1, only behind DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid.
13:59And he walked away with a 21% target share.
14:02So getting that kind of usage in this kind of game can go a long way.
14:07And then at tight end, I'm going to go back to Michael Mayer this week.
14:12He didn't have a monster game or anything last week, but among all tight ends in week 1, he was 10th in
14:19route share and 4th in target share. The usage was there.
14:22This week, the Raiders get the Chargers and LA was just blasted by Trey McBride.
14:27And they may force more of a passing script against the Raiders as 6.5 point favorites.
14:32It points to Mayer being a decent streamer as long as Brock Bowers is out.
14:37The final tier looks at players rostered in fewer than 20% of Yahoo!
14:41League, so we're definitely digging deep here. First up, we have a quarterback streamer in Carson Wentz, assuming Kyler Murray doesn't play.
14:48The Bears can push things offensively, as we know.
14:51That should keep the Vikings passing in this game, especially with Jordan Mason sidelined.
14:56Wentz finished week 1 with a top 5 fantasy points per drop back rate.
15:00And we just watched Bryce Young finish 7th in that statistic in week 1, against this exact same defense.
15:06There are definitely worse game environments than the one that Carson Wentz is about to be in from a fantasy perspective.
15:13Now deep plays at running back are not easy to find, so when I say these names, don't do anything irrational.
15:20Raheem Sanders is the first one I'm going to call out.
15:23With Dylan Sampson out, Sanders is the RB2 in the Browns backfield.
15:27He also played 75% of their third downs against the Jags.
15:31And he ran just one fewer route than Quinsha Judkins.
15:34Sanders had a snap share in the fourth quarter of 41%.
15:38They're once again big underdogs this week. If that game script hits, maybe Sanders gets some of that garbage time production.
15:44Now a more reasonable pull here is Devin Singletary.
15:47There's a chance that we see a different backfield deployment in week 2 against the Rams, because number 1, there's a chance they have a different game script.
15:56But number 2, Cam Scadaboo has a game under his belt post injury now.
16:01But Singletary played more third down snaps than Scadaboo did last week.
16:05He ran 18 routes to Scadaboo's 9. I do think there's at least some chance that Singletary ends up as their negative game script back.
16:13And that's all while still having some usability on early downs, because Tyrone Tracy had ball security issues.
16:18So I think Devin Singletary might be okay enough in PPR formats.
16:22The last running back to shout out here is Chris Brooks.
16:26Now I don't think we got a very good look of these Packers running backs in week 1, but Brooks did play
16:33more offensive snaps than Marshawn Lloyd did. And he saw more on early downs.
16:37Granted, he was the guy who saw the field when the Packers were trailing.
16:42And I don't think that happens in this game against the Jets, at least from a probability standpoint.
16:48But you never know how they might split this backfield this week.
16:51And if the Packers do indeed get a lead, and if they hold onto it, both backs this week could see enough work to be viable.
17:00So I'll give Brooks a little shout here too.
17:03We'll shift over to wide receiver. Let's talk about Caleb Douglas.
17:06Like I said earlier with Malik Willis, you've got a probable pass heavy script for Miami this week.
17:12And Douglas not only looked better than Malik Washington in week 1, his peripherals in general were just strong.
17:18We're talking a 26% target share and 84% route share and a 14 yard average at the target.
17:24He's not a bad option in this spot. Devon Vele gets the Ravens this week.
17:29It's a matchup I don't like nearly as much as the one last week.
17:33But he was moved all over the field in week 1.
17:37He had a 47 to 53 split inside to out.
17:40And his target share set at 17% with an 86% route share.
17:44The Saints are almost definitely not going to run as many plays as they did last week, but they could definitely find themselves in a negative game script.
17:53That's going to force more passing. They run at a fast pace too.
17:57So Vele should see some volume. Now I'm scared for the Titans offense against Philadelphia this week.
18:02And I do think that we may not see a ton of passing volume for the Eagles offense.
18:08But Tennessee entered this season with a bottom tiered secondary.
18:11And they were top half of the league in perimeter points allowed last week to wide receivers.
18:17And that was the Jets. In 2025, they gave up the third most perimeter wide receiver points.
18:22Now, of course, there's a different coaching staff, but it's just something to remember.
18:27Dontavian Wicks had strong enough peripherals in week 1 for you to consider him here in week 2.
18:33He had a 79% route share and 18% target share, and he was lined up on the outside.
18:38So I think he's fine against this Titans team as a sleeper.
18:42Omar Cooper's injured. He's expected to miss some time.
18:45That should open things up for Adonai Mitchell. And it did in week 1.
18:50Mitchell ran around on 81% of the Jets dropbacks, the same number as Garrett Wilson.
18:54He just saw a 13% target share, but he was using this typical down the field role.
19:00He had nearly a 20 yard A dot. Carson Wentz completed his only 20 plus air yard throw last week against his Packers defense.
19:08He was top 15 in completion rate on 10 plus air yard throws.
19:12So I think there's a chance that we see that connection with Adonai Mitchell here in week 2.
19:17I don't think Zay Flowers is going to go this week and Jacoby Lane is out too.
19:23I'm intrigued to see what Elijah Surratt might be able to do.
19:27But I think the safe option, it's Rashad Bateman.
19:30Bateman finished first in week 1 by a wide margin in route share.
19:34He was at 90%. Though he only recorded one target.
19:37He was the cardio king. But it's a pretty advantageous matchup against the Saints and Baltimore will definitely deploy him as their top wideout.
19:45So it makes sense to call him out as a sleeper.
19:48Lad McConkie might not go this week and if he doesn't, I think Trey Harris should at least be on your radar.
19:55Last week in the fourth quarter when Lad McConkie was out, Harris saw a route share of 100%.
20:01He ran more routes than Quentin Johnson did. We know Mike McDaniel doesn't deploy 11 personnel all that often.
20:07And with the wide receiver room looking like it does, that could mean that we see a lot more QJ and Trey Harris in this offense.
20:16And against the Raiders, that's kind of interesting for Trey Harris.
20:19Lastly at wide receiver, let's just keep it short, Demarcus Robinson.
20:23He gets a Miami secondary that's really not good on paper and he ran the most routes for the 49ers last week after Dajon Stribbling went out.
20:31The 49ers have a 29 point implied team total.
20:34Robinson has a shot to score some points. At tight end, look, I don't know when we'll see more Kenyon Sadiq usage.
20:41But I think we're going to get more as the season goes on.
20:45He's a first round pick, he has elite athleticism, and they were already scheming up some plays for him in week one.
20:52I'd expect that 46% route share to be higher as soon as this week.
20:57Especially if and when the Jets trail in this game.
21:00Keep in mind, Sadiq saw a target on 25% of his routes run.
21:04It's a beatable Packers defense, so if you really want a true dart throw, Sadiq makes sense.
21:10A safer option would be Pat Friermuth. According to our pass rate over expected numbers, Pittsburgh had the highest mark in week one.
21:17They pushed the ball down the field way more than they did last year.
21:22And Friermuth came through with a strong performance on the 11th best route share among tight ends last week.
21:28Pittsburgh could face more of a negative game script this week because they get New England.
21:33So based on usage and based on volume, Friermuth makes some sense.
21:37As for defensive streamers, I love the Bucks against the Browns like I said in the 15 transaction show.
21:43There's the 49ers against the Dolphins, the Packers against the Jets, and then the Chiefs against the Colts.
21:49All very, very good options. Daniel Jones faced the highest pressure rate last week, and the Chiefs forced a lot of pressure against Bo Nix.
21:57That's why they make sense. That's going to do it for today's show though.
22:01Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are searching for it.
22:09Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
22:16Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly mailbag show.
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