The Show: Terrance Ferguson's Usage, Bold Predictions, and More

JJ Zachariason cites AJ Brown as an example of a player who could have been drafted late in the third round, representing a successful draft move.

Alvin Kamara is expected to play Week 1, but his ranking was slightly bumped down due to potential reductions in pass-catching volume.

Blake Corum is currently a handcuff with limited fantasy predictability; he ran only one route and lacks the receiving profile to be a legitimate weekly threat unless the Rams are in a positive game script.

Zachariason identifies Stroud as a look-ahead waiver target for Week 2, noting he faces a Cincinnati secondary that he believes is underrated by the market.

Zachariason suggests Brooks as a speculative add, noting his potential role as a pass-protecting back against a strong Minnesota defense.

Zachariason expects an even split in the Jacksonville backfield between Rodriguez and Tootin, noting that Rodriguez can thrive in a positive game script against Cleveland due to his ability between the tackles.

McCaffrey dealt with cramps, leading to a 55% snap share and 33% rush share, his lowest in a completed game as a 49er. While he remains an RB1, Zachariason expects his usage to be managed differently than last year, potentially to keep him fresher and healthier.

Zachariason highlights concerns regarding Adams' usage, specifically noting a lower snap rate and, more importantly, being bypassed by Puka Nacua in the green zone (within the 10-yard line). This usage pattern is concerning for a player drafted in the 5th or 6th round.

Robinson is the primary beneficiary of Dajon Stribbling's ankle injury, seeing his route share jump from 26% pre-injury to 77% post-injury, leading the team in that metric.

Demarcus Robinson receives a natural boost in playing time following the injury to Stribbling, moving him from a non-factor to a player who will be on the field significantly more.

Demario Douglas saw his route share increase from 74% to 83% following AJ Brown's injury, making him a primary beneficiary in the Patriots' passing attack, though he may have a lower ceiling than other options.

Drake London is considered slightly overvalued by the market for Week 1, but he remains a must-start; his peripherals were excellent with Michael Penix, who JJ Zachariason prefers over the current starter.

Despite a 0-12 record against winning teams, JJ Zachariason maintains that Drake Maye is a very good player who has faced a gauntlet of tough defenses.

Jadarian Price showed explosive ability with a 48% rush share and 50% snap share, but his fantasy ceiling is capped by his lack of third-down work (George Helani) and goal-line usage (Emmanuel Wilson). He is a hold, but expectations should be tempered given the team's committee approach.

The speaker notes that Jayden Daniels is healthy heading into the matchup against the Eagles, which adds intrigue to the divisional game.

The speaker expresses a personal affinity for Jordan Love this season, noting interest in seeing how the Packers' offense is deployed in the matchup against the Vikings.

Josh Jacobs is likely facing a six-game suspension; JJ Zachariason suggests a short window to trade for him at a low cost in redraft leagues, acknowledging the risk while noting the exempt list time may count toward the suspension.

The speaker expresses interest in the Cardinals-Chargers game specifically to observe how the offense functions under the direction of Mike McDaniel with Justin Herbert.

Zachariason highlights Mitchell as a look-ahead waiver target, noting he is still available in 41% of leagues.

Kyle Pitts has been moved down to the bottom of his tier due to quarterback uncertainty, though JJ Zachariason notes the difference in expectation is minimal.

The speaker notes that Kyler Murray is under center for the Vikings in the upcoming Packers-Vikings matchup, highlighting it as a game with many unknowns.

JJ Zachariason notes Kyren Williams maintained a 63% snap share compared to Blake Corum's 23%, with a 72% route share. Williams remains the primary pass-catching back, a role he excelled in as a prospect, and is expected to benefit from negative game scripts.

Zachariason predicts Willis will outscore Jaden Daniels in Week 1, noting Willis has a better matchup against the Raiders and a similar team total to Washington despite the consensus ranking gap.

With Brock Bowers out for an extended period, Michael Mayer is a strong pickup who could perform as a TE1; his historical peripherals without Bowers (2.22 yards per route run) are highly encouraging.

Zachariason is six spots ahead of the market on Mayer, citing his 28% target per route run rate and 2.22 yards per route run without Brock Bowers last year, plus a tight end-friendly scheme.

Evans looked like his vintage self, seeing a shift in usage where he played more in the slot early in the game before moving back to his traditional role. Following Dajon Stribbling's injury, Evans' route share increased to 71%.

Mike Evans played more in the slot than anticipated (36% rate early, finishing around 15-17%), which is atypical for his historical usage; this shift was likely intended to create advantageous matchups, but the injury to Stribbling may limit the team's offensive versatility.

Zachariason notes there is significant steam regarding Bryant in Denver, with reports suggesting he could have a larger role than expected.

Nacua saw encouraging usage in the green zone, playing more snaps than Davante Adams within the 10-yard line. If this usage trend continues, Nacua has the potential to break fantasy records, as the Rams' passing attack is expected to improve.

Despite a 73% route share in the first half, Ferguson's overall route share dropped to 48% due to limited usage in 11 personnel and heavy reliance on 13 personnel. While he remains a talented prospect in a good offense, his lack of immediate production and reduced second-half usage make him droppable in shallower leagues (10-12 teams) if roster space is needed.

Zachariason highlights that Ferguson maintained a 73% route share during the first half of last season, a mark achieved by very few tight ends, which correlates strongly with PPR points per game.