The Show: A Statement From JJ, Favorite Picks in Rounds 1-5, and More
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59 min
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Jul 30, 2026
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Thu, July 30, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. That's Minky, M-I-N-K-Y, Couture, C-O-U-T-U-R-E.com.
0:04Go to MinkyCouture.com and get your Minky Couture blanket now, before everyone in your house claims it is theirs.
0:09You're about to listen to the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube.
0:14If you'd like to catch the show live this offseason, you can head to the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, youtube.com slash atLateroundFF.
0:21We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode.
0:26Welcome in, welcome in. It's the The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
0:30David Kitchen here alongside my ride or die, my road trip partner last week.
0:34The guy that I may have dominated in a baseball game that we played.
0:38We don't even know. No. Yes. JJ, welcome to the show.
0:42We're not going there. There's a... What's the game called?
0:45There's a game for Switch where you can play like mini games, you know, like board game type stuff.
0:50And there's a baseball game in it. And Kitchen claims that he beat...
0:54We went into like... We couldn't score for innings upon innings.
0:58Then he just got lucky. But who did score at the very end?
1:02He just got lucky. He just got lucky. But no, it was a good weekend at the Expo.
1:07You know, got to see people we haven't seen in a minute.
1:11Like the footballers, it was good to hang out with them.
1:14Got to see people that we see there each year.
1:17I got to see Gretsch too. Gretsch was another one that we hadn't seen in a minute.
1:22But it was a great time, you know, to be able to, you know, get together and draft some teams.
1:28You were in the Kings Classic this year in the other division.
1:32But we both drew the one-on-one. And we had kind of comparable builds, you know, out of that spot.
1:38And then we did the auction draft right after.
1:41So that was a lot of fun. So it was a good weekend all around.
1:45Yeah, the auction draft was pretty intense. We had the number in my room.
1:49We had the number 10 auctioneer in the world.
1:52Just had a competition. You did. It was intense.
1:55I saw Shane Hallam on Twitter said, This is the most intense draft I'd ever been a part of.
2:01And I was the same way. It was like three hours.
2:04And so you were hanging on every player. And you're checking your sheet and everything else.
2:09There's 14 teams in there with deep rosters. Three wide receivers, three flex.
2:13And, yeah, it was interesting. It was funny because our drafts went fairly similar for the snake draft.
2:18Auction draft was pretty different. Yeah. As far as – and that just goes to show that auction drafts are kind of
2:25like – no auction draft is the same. You have different people.
2:29Yeah. You have different strategies. Every room is different.
2:31All right. We do – yeah. I want to say – hold on.
2:35JJ said before the show, he's like, I'm going to surprise you with something.
2:40I have something that needs to be said. Okay.
2:42So I'm one of those people on the internet that does read the comments, that does look at my mentions, and I
2:49will gladly, you know, take in any criticism or jab back if you're going to troll.
2:54You know, not in like a – just more of like a fun, sarcastic way at this point in my life.
3:00But I read the comments because there's a lot of good feedback from the comments.
3:05Like, genuinely. There's good feedback that are received via comments.
3:08People think that it's all trolling. It's bad for your mental health.
3:12I disagree. I think that there's – it's people that are voicing their opinion about how a show goes, and they say, hey, I didn't like this part.
3:20And it's like, okay, I might still do that thing, but I know that you don't like it, and maybe other people feel the same way.
3:28There was one piece of feedback from last week's show episode.
3:31I don't know if you know about this kitchen, but I'd like to address it, and I've actually written a statement that I'm going to read.
3:39Oh, boy. For this particular situation, okay? First, I'm going to put my phone on focus because for some reason it wasn't.
3:46All right. A statement regarding last week's news item about Sam Laporta.
3:50On last week's late-round fantasy football show, my co-host and COO, David Kitchen, read a news item about Sam Laporta recovering from a microdissectomy.
3:57Immediately after, rather than responding with a take to that news item, I immediately started talking about the Falcons quarterback job.
4:03I'd like to go on record and say that I was wrong, and I apologize.
4:08Rather than responding individually to the countless comments, social media mentions, and emails, I'd just like to go on record and say
4:14that I had a 30-second period where I was completely lost.
4:18And there were three main reasons as to why I was lost.
4:21First, as many of you know, I was sick last week.
4:25My brain wasn't functioning the way it typically does, and that led to me not fully paying attention to what was going on.
4:32Second, my co-host was attempting to pronounce the word microdissectomy before handing it off to me, and that really threw me off.
4:38I'll be speaking to David Kitchen separately on that matter so that it doesn't happen again.
4:43Third, bringing it all together, that same co-host skipped the Laporta item in our show sheet and then went back to it, which threw me off completely.
4:52As you know, I was sick last week. So really, instead of emailing me and sending me messages on social media about
4:58my incompetence, please direct all of that hate to David Kitchen.
5:02This is actually all of his fault. You can reach him via email at davidatlateround.com or on Twitter at David underscore kitchen.
5:08I appreciate everyone's time. Oh, yeah, that was a surprise.
5:11I apologize as well for my part in that.
5:14We didn't talk about this, JJ, because I'm like, maybe no one will know.
5:18I was so... Guys, last week, I was feeling like absolute garbage.
5:22And then when that was going on, I was actively thinking, I think I just started talking about something completely different because
5:29I was just going off of the show sheet.
5:31So the first thing I did after the episode, usually I create our podcast titles and stuff like that.
5:37The first thing I did was I was like, I must have zoned out because I did not.
5:43And no one else said it in the chat at the time.
5:46Right. And so I had to go back and look at it.
5:50And I was like, okay, it doesn't think the chat wasn't very on top of it either.
5:55In that case, the problem was I heard about an injury and then we talked about players who were injured.
6:01So I kind of make... Because I was just kind of going off of the line items in the show sheet for our news items.
6:09I do skip around sometimes as far as like when it's like a position or if there's someone that we mention, I just go to that player.
6:17I do skip around. I apologize. And in the future, I'll say, JJ, I don't know what you're talking about.
6:23Like, I thought it was me. That's fine. I thought it was me because you asked me a lot of trouble.
6:29Brother, brother, I got not only comments, not only people on Twitter.
6:33I had two or three emails from people that were asking what I was doing in that moment.
6:39And to tell you the truth, I don't know because I wasn't feeling well and there was just a lot going on in that particular moment.
6:46So I apologize. And hopefully we can move on and I'll be friends again.
6:51Yeah, I was stuck in a car with JJ where he was coughing up a lung last week.
6:56And also he had sick kids there at the house.
6:59And I thought I was out of it. And then JJ was like, well, no, it took me six or seven days.
7:06To be fair, I was on the tail end at that point.
7:10So I don't think I was really... I woke up this morning though.
7:14Like, I think I'm good. No, first was there was a day of sore throat.
7:18That was the first thing. Yeah, I don't think I've had...
7:21And I'm finally like back... This is the first day I feel like that I'm like fully, fully back to normal.
7:28But I don't think I was contagious back then.
7:31All right, we have eight days until football starts.
7:33Hall of Fame game. We were just there at the Hall of Fame.
7:37Eric Fitzgerald is going to be there. We have new merch in the store on Lateround.com.
7:42And it is the t-shirts, the Miami Vice kind of theme t-shirt.
7:46Draft guide theme. That we wore. Yes, the draft guide theme that we wore to the expo.
7:51That's available for everybody. And I also want to give a shout out to our sponsor, DraftKey.
7:56They have the draft one, get one. Lots of talk about best ball this week.
8:01I was just thinking on the way home, if we did not have best ball in DraftKey's best ball, what would we be doing?
8:08What would we be talking about? Dynasty shares right now?
8:11I mean, people are getting into redraft now. We're here now.
8:14We're here now. Yes. June and early July would not be as fun.
8:18But referencing stuff. So yeah, they do have the huge Millie Maker Contest.
8:22Speaking of, JJ will be drafting right after this show.
8:25On the YouTube channel. Another draft. And then we will have...
8:29Also, we're starting... Trying to be more consistent with our draft times.
8:32So 1 p.m. Eastern. Those are going to be...
8:35That's going to be the time we try to draft.
8:38So if it's 1 p.m. Eastern, 12 central, you need to just check the late round channel and see if we're drafting.
8:45And we should be up there. But going back to the best ball stuff, draft one, get one.
8:50Promo code LATEROUND. Talk to someone at the expo where they were like, you know, you said that you didn't have...
8:57Like if you didn't have a huge bankroll, you could still draft the $3 teams.
9:01That's what I've been doing. Maxed out the $20 or the $1 contest.
9:05That's all you need to do. DraftKings.com. Promo code LATEROUND.
9:08Link is in the description. And we have spent a lot of time talking, JJ.
9:13You ready to move on? Yeah, there's going to be...
9:16I'll read the comments, guys. Trust me when you complain about this.
9:19But yes, let's move on to the news. Today's fantasy news!
9:23All right. Today's news started with a Tua flare-up.
9:25Yeah. Listen, this Atlanta quarterback situation is already a mess.
9:29He had a flare-up. They signed Cooper Rush. We don't know what's happening.
9:32What's your take on this, Tua thing? Just when we thought he was like QB1.
9:37So, look, I don't mind Sam Laporta this year.
9:40I'm just kidding. Stop. Just kidding. No, I mean, it's my stance from last week in this quarterback room.
9:46I'm not super, super bullish on any of these guys.
9:49It does... I saw that Michael Penix was cleared for 7-on-7.
9:52He threw a nice pass to Zachariah Branch in 7-on-7.
9:55But yeah, I mean, overall, I think I'd rather have Tua under center for Bijan and maybe feeding Drake London.
10:01And I feel... But he's just been really not great.
10:04And we don't have Mike McDaniel leading that offense at this point.
10:08So, yeah, I mean, it at least opens the door a little bit for Michael Penix, this back thing.
10:14But we'll see what ends up happening. Hopefully, it's just a minor issue.
10:17Okay, this next one. This one was an interesting one, JJ.
10:21Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet, as we call him. Ready for week one?
10:24That is unfathomable. I don't know if that's true.
10:27I think that might be more speculation. And you were in the Twitter streets, Duke et al.
10:32Yeah, you know, there was a tweet from Sleeper.
10:35And I quote tweeted it because it was a...
10:38I think Breer, was it Breer who was reporting on it?
10:41Like, basically saying that, like, Charbonnet might be ready for week one.
10:45Or like, they're not... You know, they don't know for sure.
10:48And I just said... They haven't ruled it out.
10:51Yeah. Right. And I said, I'm sorry. That was my quote tweet to that.
10:55Because clearly anyone in the fantasy space right now, we're assuming that it's more of like a November thing.
11:01Some people don't even think he's going to play at all this year.
11:05And, you know, if you look at this from a timeline perspective, he got hurt in January.
11:10He then got surgery because there was swelling and such.
11:13A month later, February 20th was the surgery date.
11:16Which means by the time the season starts, it's like six and a half months post-op for that ACL.
11:21Which typically, you know, for running backs and such...
11:24I mean, look, if you want to think that he's Superman or, you know, can be ahead of what we typically see, that's one thing.
11:32But this is like multiple months, if not at least a month, ahead of like the earliest we've ever seen a guy come back from an ACL.
11:40And yeah, you know, medicine and peptides and all.
11:43You know, I've seen a lot of people talk about like peptides and that's going to help a lot of these players recover from injury.
11:50Well, some of them are banned, first off, from being used by NFL players.
11:54So keep that in mind. But also, I don't know.
11:58I don't know enough about medicine to say like, yeah, these guys are going to cut two months off of their recovery
12:04time from an ACL because of peptides. You know, I just don't think that it's a reasonable thing to me to sit on a podcast.
12:12It's going to be listening to a lot of people and say that, right?
12:16So my stance still is that that's a very, very bullish and optimistic way to view Charbonnet.
12:21My guess is still like maybe October at the earliest, just based on what we've seen traditionally.
12:26But I think November is a more reasonable timeline.
12:29And if you're talking about like getting back to full strength, that's that's sort of like that mid-November timeframe and area.
12:36Now, how does that impact the rest of that backfield?
12:39I do think that if you think about it from like Janarian Price's standpoint, he's got to really do something and grab
12:45hold of that backfield to start the season because Charbonnet could be hurting him when it matters most in the fantasy playoffs, you know?
12:53So to keep that in mind, I still think that like the stuff that we're seeing with George Helani is not just BS.
13:00I think there's probably something to it. I mean, he got run in the playoffs a little bit.
13:05Like I think he's at least like a Lequan Allen type player for them.
13:09And then there's the upside of maybe he gets more early down work than we think.
13:14And we can sit here and say that doesn't make any sense.
13:18But I think a lot of people thought it didn't make any sense from the split the backfield last year, the way that they did with Kenneth Walker.
13:26And when you get confirmation that they did it the right way because they won the Super Bowl largely or at least
13:33partially because of Kenneth Walker, who won Super Bowl MVP, because he probably had fresher legs.
13:38I don't think that they just forgot about that, you know?
13:41So there might be more of a split than people assume.
13:45I think Price is fine as like a sixth round pick.
13:48I'm a little bit worried if he goes in like the Travion, Judd, you know, those like year two guys, those running backs in that range.
13:56I think that he should be below them. But yeah, like that's my general feel of this backfield.
14:01I would be shocked if Zach Charbonnet has a role in week one.
14:05I'd be pretty shocked. I did tell you that you need to go on BPC 157 and let me know how it outfields.
14:12That's... Yeah, I'm not a peptide, bro. I can't...
14:15I get too nervous about putting anything in my body.
14:18Yeah, that's the one that... I got nervous enough when I started taking creatine last year.
14:23You know, I'm not... They call it the Wolverine stack.
14:26But yeah, if everyone else is doing it, I'm going to be doing it.
14:30I talked to a guy actually that he... His business helps NFL players, a lot of different athletes get back to like
14:37their former selves, helps with injuries like a sports chiropractic.
14:40And he said that BPC 157 is the biggest...
14:43Here we go. Here we go. Now, Kitchen's just making more comments happen in the Spotify comments.
14:48It's going to be great. Listen, there might be some sponsors out there.
14:52You know, no one needs... We're not getting... I don't want a peptide brand sponsoring us.
14:57All right, let's move on to the next one.
14:59Cards running back room is a mess. Kind of like this show so far.
15:04I don't know what to take from all... You know, the coach speak.
15:08Then you've got keeping all four running backs. You got Trey Benson trying to play special teams.
15:13I mean, what are we making of this running back room?
15:16Well, in these situations, like when Nathaniel Hackett comes out and he starts talking about like James Conner being the RB1 or
15:23something, or just like praising him, I hope that in these situations, the market reacts to that type of coach speak, right?
15:29In the end, we know that Jeremiah Love is the best running back in this backfield, right?
15:35I think that Tyler Algier is a really good grinder.
15:38More of that like early down profile. He was a pretty decent enough pass catcher.
15:42I mean, he had a really interesting prospect profile because he converted to running back whenever he was in college.
15:48Like it wasn't this like thing that he just did from the start.
15:52Like he was playing on defense and stuff. And so good for him for doing what he did, you know, in the NFL thus far.
16:00But with that being said, Jeremiah Love, and I talked about this on the schedule analysis show, the Cardinals have a really, really tough schedule this year.
16:08Like obscenely tough. And it starts out really hard.
16:11And so I'm very interested to see how that backfield is split when we know that, or we don't know for sure,
16:17but we believe that Jeremiah Love is more of that traditional pass catching, you know, we'll play and hurry up or play
16:24on third downs, long down in distance, two minute.
16:27And if that's the case, he might be on the field a little bit more because the Cardinals aren't going to be very good, right?
16:34Like that's the anti-Tyler Algier stance. In my opinion, I think Love in round three is a very good bet because, you
16:41know, everyone will comp the Ashton Gentry thing, right?
16:44And they'll say, oh, look at Ashton Gentry burned us last year.
16:48Well, Ashton Gentry's production in round three last year is actually totally fine, totally reasonable.
16:52And then there's obviously the upside of like, what if Jeremiah Love is just in a better situation than we expect?
16:59Or what if Arizona's offense is a little bit better?
17:02Whatever the case may be. And so like, I don't really want to make the apples to the, I think that the
17:08comparison to Gentry is more of an apples to oranges comparison because Gentry was a first round pick in redraft last year,
17:15you know, going in like the, the end of the first or whatever.
17:19And so with Jeremiah Love, you're getting him at a discount from that.
17:23And I think that where he's going is more than reasonable as a result.
17:27Now there's going to be some platforms like ESPN is really high on Jeremiah Love.
17:32I think they have him at like RB5 or something, like something crazy.
17:36Um, that's where he becomes a fade. Like I'm not, I'm not taking them in that first, like at least round and
17:42a half, but late round two, when things start to fall off at the running back position, you know, after like Derek
17:49Henry falls off the board, that's where I think you can start looking at, at love a little bit more.
17:55And in best ball, we've been getting them in round three.
17:58You know, he's a, he's a early to mid round three pick.
18:02And so if this news is shifting that in any way, shape or form, I mean, you have James Conner and older.
18:09I mean, look, I love James Conner. Not only is he all for all intents and purposes, like from what you hear,
18:15just an awesome dude who, you know, beat cancer.
18:18He's a, he's a pit guy, right? I mean, like hail to pit, right?
18:22Like I love James Conner, but he's on the wrong side of his, his career from an age perspective.
18:28Uh, I already talked about Tyler Algier. I was never a big Trey Benson guy aside from like last year when he was really, really cheap to acquire.
18:37And I thought it was fine to just throw that dart and see if he can maybe do something when he returned from injury, just never happened.
18:45So I'm just looking at this backfield and saying, like, I don't think that there's like such intense threats for Jeremiah.
18:51Love, uh, in the end, Tyler Algier is a solid back who can definitely do some stuff on the ground early, early
18:58downs and maybe at the goal line. And that's definitely a fear, but I don't think that you're drafting a Cardinals running back for goal line touches.
19:06You know, we just know that this, this situation is going to be more pass heavy, uh, and not necessarily the highest scoring in the world.
19:14So I think love, if he, if he does tumble a little bit in ADP, just makes him a little bit more attractive.
19:21Okay. Uh, this was a blur by our good friend, Roto Pat that we saw, uh, over the weekend, Marshawn Lloyd spent
19:28multiple months of the off season, visiting a specialized injury, rehab Institute.
19:31So two to three, two to three months basically.
19:34And, and what they found was that he was kind of overcompensating for a previous ACL injury that he had, but also
19:41keep in mind that Josh Jacobs, the investigation is still open.
19:44And also Chris Brooks is on the non football injury list.
19:48Uh, they got out yesterday. Yeah. You know, it's funny because the same exact team, Christian Watson was doing something similar with his hamstrings last year.
19:55Um, or two years ago, or at least the last couple of years.
19:59And right now, when we talk about Christian Watson, no one really brings up the injury stuff.
20:05He was not this time last year. He was not being drafted.
20:08Oh yeah. I mean, I, I didn't draft Christian Watson at all in best ball last year.
20:13Right. Like I, I wasn't going after him at all.
20:16And I can feel fine with that in hindsight because I had a good best ball season, but, uh, yeah, it was
20:23not a good call to, to not be in on, on Christian Watson.
20:27Uh, and you know, he got it right. And hopefully Marshawn Lloyd does too.
20:31I think as a prospect, I didn't, you know, if you guys go back and read the prospect guide from him, when
20:38Marshawn Lloyd came out, um, I wasn't like super high on him.
20:42He has a good athletic profile, uh, but he, he profiled to me more as a complimentary back than like a full blown bell cow.
20:49But I think that's kind of what green Bay needs at this point.
20:53Josh Jacobs is, you know, on the similar to like James Conner, not quite like James Conner because he's younger.
20:59Uh, and he came in younger to Jacobs did, but he's not the, you know, he could be, we could be seeing
21:06a little bit of wear and tear with Jacobs.
21:09And obviously you have the off the field stuff too.
21:12I wouldn't be shocked that they try to like, I think that they've wanted to have a compliment in this backfield for a minute.
21:19It's just that Lloyd hasn't been able to stay healthy since they drafted him.
21:23Um, and so I'm not gonna be surprised if he carves out at least some role, you know, if you want to
21:30throw a last round dart in the season long league.
21:33And if you're drafting early, just to see what happens with the Josh Jacobs stuff, I think that's totally reasonable.
21:39If you're playing best ball, you want to draft him in round 17 to 18, uh, you know, in, uh, over on draft Kings, totally reasonable.
21:47So yeah, I mean, like I, I think that this is all good news from Arshon Lloyd and, you know, just as
21:54a fan of the game, you want to see these guys be able to find the field and see what they're all
22:00about, as opposed to just like one injury after another.
22:03And you're not really finding out how good they actually are.
22:07Okay. You see on this list, I have moved some things around and I've shifted them and I have, uh, I'm telling
22:13you in advance that I'm shifting them around. Let's move on to receiver.
22:17And let's talk about the injury portion for receivers.
22:20Let's group these two together. Lake neighbors avoids the pup.
22:23We don't know about what he's going to do, um, as far as to start the season, but Alec Pierce to miss one to two more weeks.
22:31This is a guy that signed a big contract.
22:34These are guys that, uh, neighbors starting to climb and peers starting to fall in drafts.
22:39Yeah. So with neighbors, um, I think that it's important to understand that this does not mean that he is going to play a week one.
22:47Uh, it means that they probably have some thought that he might be able to play within the first handful of weeks.
22:54Uh, like that, that's a, that's a possibility. Uh, but it's obviously good news, better news than, than not for sure with neighbors.
23:01Um, you know, it sounded like he had some setbacks with his recovery.
23:05There was the, uh, the famous videos that came out, you know, whether they were playing, like, what were they playing softball
23:11in the one or kickball in the one or something like that.
23:15Um, and he didn't look right. He still had sort of a limp.
23:19Uh, it's good that he avoided pup. Uh, I'm trying to now, I, I mean, I, I was, I was hoping that
23:26not hoping, but I was playing the game, the game theory game, uh, you know, with neighbors and best ball.
23:32And I was not really drafting him. Uh, cause I was thinking that his ADP was going to fall if he was
23:38placed on pup and then he wasn't. So it was a bad call by me.
23:43He's rising my rankings a little bit as a result of that.
23:47Um, I think at this point, if you're in a season long league, uh, you know, if, if he falls to like, I don't know, it's hard.
23:55It's hard to really know, but like, if you're in a, the, the shallower, the season long league that you're in the
24:01managed league that you're in, the easier it's going to be to take on a player like neighbors because the cost to
24:08acquire is not going to be as significant. And what I mean by that is, you know, if you end up getting,
24:15if you're in a 10 team league and you get neighbors in round four or five or four, let's say, and in
24:21round four, it's the top of that really good wide receiver tier that I like, whether it's Jalen Waddle, Terry McLaurin, Luther
24:28burden, uh, you know, Tedro McMillan, there's just a lot of good wide Garrett Wilson.
24:33There's a lot of good wide receivers in that tier.
24:36Vlad McConkey. Um, I think that it's okay in a shallower league, especially if you have an IR spot to take on
24:42Malik neighbors, because you're going to be able to get another guy in round five and possibly round six from that tier, depending on how things go down.
24:51And I know that it sounds crazy to hear that.
24:54If you've been grinding best ball drafts, it's just different in season long.
24:58If you go look at ADP. So I think it's going to be easier to do that.
25:03If you're drafting right now, um, I'm anticipating his ADP to probably be more in that, like round three range for, you
25:10know, if I were to give like a median outcome for like the rest of, of the summer up until the start of the season.
25:17Uh, and I don't think he's going to play week one, but I do think that there's a possibility now that we
25:24could see him like week three, week four timeframe.
25:27And obviously Malik neighbors is a top 12 wide receiver when he's healthy, you know, like so, so right now I think neighbors could be drafted around.
25:35Like, let's just say mid round three is, is a reasonable spot to get neighbors.
25:40Um, you know, if you're in a deeper league, like we were in the Kings classic this past week, I didn't just,
25:46I just didn't want to risk it. I didn't want to take on Malik neighbors in a 14 team league where you
25:53start one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, three flex spots in the tight end.
25:58You know, it's just, if you miss on that pick, it can really, really hurt you.
26:03Uh, it's not fun to lose out on like a, uh, a third round pick in a, uh, uh, a deep league like that.
26:10So that's where I'm at with neighbors right now.
26:13All right. Uh, tank Dell is back. Sort of.
26:15Hey, I should talk about Alec Pierce. I thought you already did.
26:19Wow. I put those, I grouped those two together.
26:22We were running kind of late. So I'm trying to like, we're fine.
26:26We're fine. People need my, my Alec Pierce state continues to be, I am shocked that the market is not higher on him.
26:33When I thought I was going to be lower on Alec Pierce.
26:36He is at a completely reasonable price on most platforms right now.
26:40Uh, he's still falling and he's still falling. And I think this is going to be a one to two week thing like they're saying.
26:48Uh, and so if that's the case, like if, if Alec Pierce is not ready by the start of the season, that
26:54is a huge fumble by the Colts to give him the contract that they gave him with him, not being ready.
27:01And if you want to, if you're playing in multiple leagues and you want to kind of, um, hedge this a little bit, you can draft Josh downs.
27:09You can draft Tyler Warren. I think both Tyler Warren and Josh downs are pretty good values right now.
27:15So if you want to want to hedge this a little bit, you can go in the other direction and not just,
27:22you know, go in all, all in with, with Alec Pierce.
27:25But I like, if you're getting Alec Pierce is like your wide receiver four or something in any format.
27:31I mean, it's, it's not that bad considering like we know his big playability, he's gotten better every year.
27:37I give him that. He just hasn't been a high volume getter dating back to even college.
27:42But in this scenario where it's not like you're paying a fourth or he's not in that great tier of wide receivers, you know, he's well after that.
27:50And so because of that, I think he's actually kind of an attractive piece right now.
27:55I'm trying not to be too, uh, reactive to some of the injury news, whether it comes at the end of camp
28:02or, you know, it's happening at the beginning of camp here, just because things can change in an instant.
28:08Um, and, and we have to go by what they're generally saying and also their actions, which was, they gave him a really big contract.
28:15Okay. tank Dell is back sort of on the side of the, line at least, but he is running routes.
28:21I don't, I don't think they have him like in full contact stuff just yet, but they did not put him on the pup.
28:29And meanwhile, Jalen Noel out at least a few weeks because of a finger injury, not, not great news for him.
28:35What's your take on the wide receivers? Yeah. I mean, it seems minor enough for, for Jalen Noel.
28:41So I'm not overly concerned. I mean, I think the bigger concern with Noel is just that if tank Dell is back
28:47and healthy, um, it's going to limit the time for Jaden Higgins, even in that offense, uh, as long as tank Dell is healthy.
28:54It's good. Like, I mean, I said this last week, I think it was with, um, with CJ Stroud, like don't overstate
29:01the splits with and without tank Dell for CJ Stroud, because Stroud was just not nearly as effective in general after that
29:08first year, uh, in, in the, in the league.
29:11So it's not really a tank Dell problem. It's just that, that Stroud hasn't been as good, um, as a fantasy asset, especially even as a pastor.
29:19Although I do think, and I, I, this is something that someone had commented on last week.
29:24Um, I was speaking more about him as a fantasy asset last week.
29:28I do think there are some underlying metrics where like Stroud isn't as bad as what people probably think.
29:34Like, I think Stroud could go through a, and, and end up having like a Jared Goff type career, you know, where
29:40super solid, give him, get him in the right system, give him the right weapons.
29:45And all of a sudden, like he's not only low end QB one, high end QB two fantasy viable, but he's also
29:52someone that can be a good deliverer, deliverer of the football.
29:55Um, but look, this is a situation for the Texans where bottom line for them, man, it's going to come down to
30:02how, how that offensive line looks after last year, after the last couple of years.
30:06And there should be some improvements there that we're excited about, but, um, that that's what this is going to come down
30:13to most in terms of how effective the offense is going to be.
30:17We'll see what happens with tank Dell. If you want to throw a last round dart, be my guest.
30:23Um, I think Jalen Noel was a good prospect, a fun prospect who could play the slot.
30:28But to me, Noel is someone that you're going to probably want to go after more.
30:33So in a best ball environment than a, than a managed season long.
30:37Okay. Uh, Chris Brazel had some knee issues. He was limping.
30:40He was carted off. And then I just saw in the news and rumors, uh, channel in our late round discord, um,
30:47that head coach, Dave Canales says that he aggravated the same left knee that he missed, that he missed a couple of recent practices for due to soreness.
30:55Not great though for the rookie. Not great. I mean, look, I think Chris Brazel is the type of player that will
31:02end up being better in real life than in fantasy.
31:05He's someone who, um, you know, like, like one of his like looser comps, but it was like a Martavis Bryant type, right?
31:12That's like his upside, I think. And what he, if you want to envision what he can do in the NFL, uh,
31:19but in today's game where teams are playing more too high, we're not seeing the big plays.
31:24And obviously he has Bryce young, a quarterback right now.
31:27Um, it's, it's a little bit, you know, there's some fear that he's just not going to be that productive, but he
31:34can really open things up underneath for a Jalen Coker and for a Teddero McMillan.
31:38And so, uh, and you know, it allows some flexibility with those two weapons who I think are, you know, awesome wide receivers.
31:45Uh, while Brazel can stretch a field, play the outside, we can get a little bit more movement for, for McMillan into the slot and such.
31:53Uh, and I do think that Brazel has more upside than, than like, if I look at them as prospects, Brazel had
32:00more upside as a prospect than Xavier Leggett did.
32:02Right. The, the problem with, with Brazel is he's coming from Tennessee and it's just been a really hard school to evaluate from historically.
32:10Um, and, and, you know, we've seen like Jalen Hyatt, but Cedric Tillman hasn't really done what we would hypothetically want him to do as a day.
32:18He was day to pick. Um, and so, you know, there, there's, there's definitely volatility there, but I expect Brazel, if he's
32:25healthy to, to be able to outperform Xavier Leggett and take that three job for Carolina.
32:29So fingers crossed that, that things are okay. All right.
32:32booty rocking everywhere. Kayshawn booty has been the standout receiver of Patriots camp.
32:36This is according to multiple beat writers. like everyone is saying it.
32:40Yeah. Maybe. So I don't think he's starting like in the three wide receiver sets, but he's coming on, he's playing the
32:47X and he's like, he just making plays. It's hard to keep a guy like that out.
32:52Yeah. I mean, like I've been drafting a lot of booty in best ball because I was anticipating a possible trade.
32:58Yeah. So, so, I mean, you know, results over process, right?
33:02That's what we say. Uh, yeah. In our draft yesterday in the, the late round best ball draft, I was going to get him.
33:09I was going to plan on getting him. He got taken in the 14th round.
33:14Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he's rising up draft board, but I, predictability from him, unless you're in like a deeper format where,
33:20you know, you don't have to really make start sit decisions.
33:24But, you know, if you look at what he's done, he's been a perimeter receiver so far in the NFL.
33:30I liked him as a prospect because he was an early declare and he was younger.
33:35He still went day three, but he had a decent profile, age adjusted profile.
33:39We know that though. Like he was, he was someone that a lot of people thought was going to be like highly, highly drafted coming out.
33:47And then it just didn't, you know, it is his final season.
33:50Wasn't as great as people expected it to be.
33:53necessarily live up to the hype, but every year he's gotten better.
33:57His yards per out run has gotten better every year.
34:00You know, his, his targets per out run needs to need some improvement.
34:04That hasn't been that strong, but you're pairing a guy who can get down the field with a player in Drake may
34:10who can really sling it down the field. That that's where, you know, we saw magic happen even last year at times.
34:17So, you know, he's a young player still. So I'm not surprised that like, you know, if he can get it together
34:24between the ears, it can come together and practice.
34:26And then in games. And I think at this point, just based on these reports, it's either new England media is all
34:33over this, trying to get something in return for K Sean booty, which I don't, I don't rule that out.
34:39I never, I almost floated that as a possibility.
34:42I never, I never, ever ruled that out. With that being said, I don't think that's what's happening here because there is
34:49a forward positive trajectory for booty career wise. And, you know, I don't think that you can have too many wide receivers
34:55when you're a team like new England. And, you know, you're, you have super bowl aspirations and you can move guys around,
35:02you know, like, like it gives them a lot more flexibility to do things in the slot with like a Dobbs.
35:08You know, it's even booty can maybe play in the slot a little bit more.
35:13So it gives them that flexibility. Obviously they have like pure slot guys like the Mario Douglas, maybe Kyle Williams can play
35:20in the slot a little bit more. If he gets playing time, it's not looking good for him.
35:25Uh, but he's like one guy not getting play.
35:28But overall, I think this is just good news for, for the new England offense.
35:32And he's a better best ball pick than he is going to be a managed season.
35:37Like he's not going to be a late round dark throw for me, even if my rankings are ahead of the market with booty.
35:45It's just, it's a hard sell for a managed season long league.
35:48In my opinion with Kayshawn Booty. All right. Christian Kirk sideline with a cap injury.
35:53And meanwhile, Dijon Stribling shocker. People are heaping praise on him from the Niners organization, calling him a baller, uh, saying he's
36:00looking the part that sort of thing. Look, I think that Stribling they've, they've, they view him as a Jawan Jennings type period.
36:07Like this is, he's a good blocker. I mean, I'm not, I've said this before in a show.
36:12I'm not grinding Dijon Stribling, uh, blocking film, but, but I do think that, um, they view him in that way.
36:18That doesn't mean that he's going to be great for fantasy football necessarily, but he's a player who has good size and speed.
36:25And these types of players generally do show up this time of year, you know, in, in these camps, especially when it,
36:32when it's not a full blown training camp situation.
36:35Um, but with, you know, with that being said, I think Stribling should be on your late round radar because you have
36:41Ricky Pearsall who hasn't been able to stay healthy, you know, throughout his career.
36:46You have Mike Evans, who's older and has had his own issues.
36:49And then you have George Kittle coming off an Achilles.
36:52So, yeah, I mean like this is an offense we want to invest in.
36:57If Stribling's the wide receiver three right now with multiple injury outs, he should be rising up draft boards regardless of, I
37:03mean, now that we know that Christian Kirk isn't in his way, um, there's just one less, one less person in his
37:10way to be able to, to be fantasy relevant.
37:13So, yeah, I mean like I didn't love him as a prospect.
37:16Obviously the whole market didn't really love him as a prospect.
37:20Doesn't mean that, that that's going to happen, that it, that it's not going to come together for him to be a usable piece in fantasy.
37:28So I do think if you're in the late rounds right now, you should be looking at him.
37:33The problem is in best ball in particular, like usually managed season long lags behind best ball, best ball.
37:39He's been going in. Like I saw him in round 13 yesterday, which I don't know if I can get there yet.
37:46Steam things up or they'll drop you really quick.
37:48People are very knee jerk reactionary. So, but, but in a, in a managed season long league, I think that he's going
37:55to be, um, someone to just like throw that dart at and just see what happens weeks one and two.
38:01And then you can just throw them to send them to the waiver wire if it's not happening, especially with, uh, with deep rosters.
38:08Uh, okay. We've got to move on, but just a quick recap.
38:12Terry kill doesn't have any power in his leg.
38:15Brandon. I use is, uh, just continues to go off the deep end.
38:19And then we still don't have a landing spot for Stefan digs, Debo Samuel or Keenan Allen.
38:24So hopefully some of these teams can figure that out.
38:27So with that being said, let's get on to today's data.
38:30Today's data. All right. Yes. Go ahead. Very simple today.
38:33And we can keep it quick. Like this is showing you, uh, team strength of schedule by projected wind total or, you
38:40know, draft Kings wind total, uh, by team. So Arizona is at the top because they have the hardest schedule in football.
38:47Their average opponent has a wind total of 9.1 this year.
38:50Miami second. It's hilarious that these terrible teams have horrible schedules, Carolina's third and so on and so forth.
38:56If you look at the bottom Detroit, I mentioned this on the show.
39:00So they have the easiest schedule in the league.
39:03New Orleans is second easiest Cleveland, Cincinnati, the jets, the Ravens, the Eagles all have pretty easy schedules.
39:08Uh, so you can just look at this. You can screenshot this if you want.
39:13Um, but this is just looking at who has easy schedules and who has hard schedules.
39:17And this is all based off of the schedule analysis stuff that I did on the podcast that dropped on Tuesday.
39:24So if you want to get like more detailed insights as to how I look at this kind of thing, uh, I
39:31talk about that a lot on, on that show and on that episode.
39:34All right, let's get on to today's main event.
39:37The late round. All right. These are your favorite picks rounds one through five.
39:41I will say I was a little bit surprised.
39:44Two of these guys also on last year's. Oh, were they?
39:48Yeah. Oh, I'm not gonna tell you who you can guess afterwards.
39:51I was probably wrong about both. Uh, all right.
39:54I took these, this ADP from fantasy pros. Yeah.
39:57ADP is different. Every site that you look at.
39:59So I'm basing this off of these 12 guys.
40:02I'm going to read them just so everyone knows.
40:05Right. And this is in order. B. John Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, Jamar Chase, Puka Nakua.
40:09And this is in order. Christian McCaffrey, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Jonathan Taylor, Aminra St.
40:14Brown, James Cook, Ashton Gentty, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson.
40:17And my pick for my favorite first round value, is Ashton Gentty.
40:21Um, I think he belongs in that Jonathan Taylor, James Cook tier.
40:24It's hard for me to be like, like, I mean, it's the first round.
40:29So I don't think there's like any glaring values.
40:31This is, I think how I have my first round.
40:34I might have, uh, Saquon in there instead of Justin Jefferson or CD or something like that.
40:40But like, it's very close to how my first round is.
40:43I like Jameer Gibbs more than B. John and such.
40:46I like Puka, uh, ahead of, of Jamar Chase, but it's, you know, you're, you're splitting hairs there, but with Ashton Gentty.
40:53Okay. First off market score loves them. He has an RB for market score behind B.
40:57John, Jameer Gibbs and Christian McCaffrey. He also had an elite year two model score of 99.6, which tries to predict how
41:04well a player is going to perform in years two through four guys who are in that tier almost always give us
41:11at least, you know, usually multiple RB one seasons, but at least one over their next three seasons.
41:16Uh, he had an elite year one weighted opportunity.
41:19When you look at targets and rushes and weigh targets properly for, for how important they are from a fantasy points perspective.
41:26Now I know that a lot of people will look at last year and say that he sucked because he had a 3.7 yards per carry average.
41:34Keep in mind yards per carry is not predictive.
41:37And he had the second worst yards before contact per attempt in the NFL.
41:41Only Quinshot Judkins was lower. According to pro football focus, they also get Tyler Linderbaum and Colton Miller's coming back from injury.
41:48And they get Clint Kubiak who we're going to see a lot of these like outside zone runs.
41:53I think Gentty can really thrive there. It's been a lot of research done.
41:57Like I know I remember going on, uh, uh, and talking to James Coe about this when he was on perspectives last
42:04year, I think it was last year. And he was talking about how those like outside runs just are awesome for fantasy football purposes.
42:11I think we're going to see a lot of them from Ashton Gentty this year.
42:16Um, and since 2011, I think this is interesting too.
42:19I've said this before on the show, but since 2011, there's only one other rookie running Mac who had an 80% running
42:26back rush share and a target share as high as Ashton Gentty's.
42:29And it's Saquon Barkley. So with there being such little competition in Vegas, you know, typically I don't want to invest in,
42:36in kind of like mediocre to bad offenses, especially early.
42:39But the one way you can bat that is through volume.
42:42And I think Gentty is going to see a lot of volume in a good offensive scheme for him.
42:48So, uh, I'm going to call out Gentty as a, as a breakout this year and a guy that I like to
42:55target at the tail end of round one. I love Gene T.
42:58I, uh, got him in that King's classic auction draft and I paired him with another running back.
43:04Who's actually your favorite target in round two. How good did I do?
43:08JJ. Yeah. Kenneth Walker. Sure. Um, I'm just going to read this and listen to this list before you start, you know, yeah.
43:15Criticizing or thinking about why I'm talking about Walker 13th.
43:18Overall, you have Devon H. And then it's Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, Amari and Hampton, Drake London, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Kenneth
43:25Walker, Josh Allen, Derek Henry, AJ Brown, Nico Collins.
43:27So as I go through and do more and more drafts for season long leagues, I start to like see where I really stand with certain players.
43:36Right. And one of those players over the last couple of weeks for me has been Kenneth Walker, where I've had him
43:42in that tier with all those running backs throughout the summer.
43:46Um, I've just had them lower in that tier than I do now.
43:50Uh, this next, like, I think that I, like I'm drafting him over Amari and Hampton.
43:54I'm drafting him over Devon H. And, uh, I'm drafting him over, you know, Derek Henry.
43:59And then like the Drake London trip, the fact that Trey McBride in this ADP is going ahead of Brock Bowers is silly to me.
44:07Um, but yeah, I mean like him going 20th overall, I think he's more of like closer to a one, two turn player.
44:14Uh, you know, he was, uh, like I said, I drafted him.
44:18I, I drafted him in the auction this past weekend.
44:21Kansas city was 25th in rushing yards per game last year.
44:24Brandon Godula pulled this back in the, during the off season, but they were seventh in EPA per rush and they were eighth in success rate.
44:32Kareem hunt and Isaiah Pacheco. I talked about this in the free agency podcast.
44:36They combined for one 20 plus yard run last year on 200, 180 plus carries their rate of gaining 10 or more yards was 8.5% and 6.1%.
44:44Kenneth Walker was almost at 15% in terms of gaining 10 or more or 10 or more yards per run.
44:50You get a, you're, you're, you're getting a home run hitter.
44:54And Kenneth Walker combined with a team that is going to face a lot of too high.
44:59And it's a team that generates high success rates because of that.
45:03Right. A huge reason that Kareem hunt was so high in success rate last year is because they'll get some of that push.
45:10He'll get the yards that, that are given to him, but he can't do much more after that because it's Kareem hunt.
45:16Right. And so Kenneth Walker in that situation is like next level.
45:20There's so much rushing upside and what he can do.
45:23So this really comes down to what can you do as a pass catcher?
45:27I've always thought that he's been fine as a pass catcher.
45:31He's only had one season where he's been above like that 8% mark, which is definitely a problem.
45:36Like we, if you're drafting him in the one, two turn, you need that at least like a 10% target share from him.
45:43But if you look at what they have in the backfield, I love them at Johnson as a prospect, but traditionally rookie
45:50running max do not see high target shares. I learned my lesson last year with Travion Henderson.
45:55And so I don't want to get too, too bullish on that.
45:58And then you're looking at like Amari Di Mercado as the, the third down back.
46:03I think it's fine if he plays a third down role or even if Emmitt Johnson does.
46:08But I don't think that just means that there's no Kenneth Walker love from a receiving perspective.
46:13So you bring all that together, Patrick Mahomes coming off this ACL where he's probably not going to be getting much goal line rushing.
46:21I mean, it's not like they run sneaks with him anyway, but all of that combined makes me just really like Kenneth Walker in this profile.
46:29And I feel like every day that I think about this more and I research it and just go, go through things more.
46:36I'm, I'm moving Kenneth Walker up my ranks. All right.
46:39So round three, you've got Devonta Smith. Yes. So Devonta Smith, I think this was a call.
46:44I probably had him last year. Is that one of the, yeah, not, not great, not great, Bob, but Devonta Smith, his splits without AJ Brown.
46:52Now, obviously you have Makai lemon there. Now, Eli Stowers, I don't know how big of a threat he's going to be
46:58year one, but in career games without AJ Brown, he now, mind you, Devonta Smith played his rookie year without Brown.
47:05And then Brown entered the fold for four games.
47:07He was out when he got to Philadelphia with Devonta Smith active.
47:11He has a 25.6% target share in his career without AJ Brown.
47:15He's played four games without him since 2022, 35% target share in those four games, which is pretty wild.
47:2197 yards per game without AJ Brown in those four games, 32% targets per out run rate.
47:26All crazy. I mean, those are, that's literally like JSN esque usage, right?
47:30I'm not saying that that's what's going to happen now because you do have still like Makai lemon, Don Tavian wicks.
47:36But, but with that being said, like it does give us a sample of Devonta Smith being an alpha for an NFL offense, right?
47:43Even if it's a small sample, there's a new offensive coordinator in Philadelphia.
47:47I mean, I've, I've beaten this, this, this dead horse at this point with Kevin Petulo and how awful just go look
47:54at the route charts for AJ Brown last year.
47:57You know, there was a tweet yesterday where AJ Brown and Drake may couldn't connect on like a crosser that AJ Brown was running.
48:04And everyone's like, Oh man, this is, this is bad.
48:07This is, I'm like, wait, they're running, they're running crossers with AJ Brown.
48:11Like he's, he's going to, he's going to hit the middle of the field.
48:15You mean like, this is amazing. That's why I'm more bullish about this clip, even though they didn't connect on the past.
48:22But Devante Smith has had a floor too. He's hit 14 or more points per game in three of his five seasons.
48:29The only two seasons where he didn't, one was his rookie year where guys just don't score that many points per game across the entire season.
48:37The other one was the Petula season was last year.
48:40So I'm in a Devante Smith. I like him in this range.
48:43I should read this range though, too. I didn't do that.
48:47Jeremiah love 25th overall. Then George Pickens, Josh Jacobs, Chris Alave, Kyron Williams, Rashid Rice, Javante Williams, Brees Hall, Devante Smith, Lamar Jackson, Cam Scadaboo, Teddero McMillan.
48:55It's funny because there's some guys in the fourth round that I would draft over some of these guys in the third round.
49:02It does show there's a very real flatness that starts to occur once you hit the middle of round three, which traditionally
49:08and historically, that's what we've seen with hit rates in fantasy football too.
49:12All right. Round four. I'll read them off for you.
49:15Malik neighbors, Travis ETN, T Higgins, Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson, Colson Loveland, Emeka Egbuka, Bucky Irving, Lad McConkie, Quinshawn Judkins, Travion Henderson, and Luther Burden.
49:23Yeah. I thought about going Burden here. I'll be honest.
49:26You might, you know, I love Luther Burden. I'm on that side.
49:30I, I sent a tweet out earlier this week where it was something along the lines of like, you know, if you,
49:36if you think that burden's bad at cost this year and it's, he's a bad pick, you're not wrong.
49:42But if you think that he's a great pick, you're also not wrong.
49:46And then people were accusing me of fence sitting.
49:49I'm like, bro, if you listen to the podcast, if you listen to me the last year and a half, you know
49:56that I don't fence it with Luther Burden. I am in on Luther Burden.
50:00I think he's a very, very good player. With that being said, I'm going to go Emeka Ibuka here because I think you'd just be going higher.
50:08Whereas I understand the bear case more for Luther Burden.
50:11Emeka Ibuka. I talked about this on last week's market score projection show.
50:15He has insane market score comps. He's a top five wide receiver.
50:19When you project via those comps, not by market score, he's not bad in market score, but when you look at the
50:25comps, it's just good comp after good comp. And that makes me feel more confident in Ibuka himself.
50:31Last year, it was a story of the first five weeks he was dominating.
50:35He was converting all these deep passes. He was doing everything.
50:38Uh, and then he got hurt, uh, and Baker got hurt.
50:42And if you're watching Netflix's quarterback right now, you can see how bad Baker's injuries were.
50:47Uh, and they talk about this whole dynamic throughout that show, but week one to five, Emeka Ibuka led the NFL with
50:53291, 20 plus, uh, uh, air yard throw receiving yards on area on those 20 plus area yard throws.
50:59He had 91 from then on out. I mean, it was just night and day, uh, with, with the Buka, he ranked
51:06a hundredth out of a hundred and three and catchable targets rates among qualified wide receivers after week five.
51:12Uh, but now you're looking at a situation. Zach Robinson comes to town.
51:16They've already talked about a Buka playing that zero.
51:18Um, I think a lot of people, you know, look at like Godwin playing the slot and they're like, Oh man, slot role with Zach Robinson.
51:26That's when Cooper cup dominated, but Cooper cup played more of a Z where he's moving inside out.
51:32He's not, he's not a pure slot, uh, when he had that monster monster season.
51:36Uh, and so I think that they could deploy a Buka in a very similar way.
51:41Don't forget when he came out last year, a lot of people thought a Buka was a pure slot.
51:47You know, you can go back and read the, the prospect guide from last year.
51:51Um, where I talked about how, you know, I, I thought he was more than that.
51:56the, the zap model thought he was more than that.
51:59That was a very common thought about a Mecca Buka.
52:02And that's interestingly enough. One of the, his comps was Robert Woods, who Zach Robinson would have coached, you know, back, back in the day.
52:10But I think a Buka, um, could work really well in an inside out role in this Tampa Bay offense.
52:16And if everyone's healthy, he could really have a monster season.
52:19Yeah. Some are comparing kind of what happened in Seattle last year after DK Metcalf left.
52:24JSN stepped up into that role. And now you have Mike Evans leaving and you have a Mecca Buka, right?
52:30To just step up into that role. And we did have a comment saying, yeah, I was a Buka going much higher again.
52:37This is not best ball. This is just redraft ADP.
52:40Everyone's everyone's percent. It's very frustrating as a fantasy analyst.
52:43Everyone's perception of ADP is so different. And it's based on what you're just generally playing, like what platform you're generally playing on.
52:50And so that's why in the draft guide, I'm very specific about where this guy's a value.
52:56I'm looking at Yahoo and ESPN mostly as like the two platforms.
52:59Cause sleeper at one point was very much being swayed by dynasty value.
53:03And it was kind of skewing things like RJ Harvey was like a fifth round pick.
53:08And it's really hard to, you know, like talk about that and buy into that as a realistic ADP.
53:14But I am leaning into like, you know, CBS even in such and trying to get like a good real feel of the aggregate.
53:21Because people are best ball brained right now. I get it.
53:24I am too. I get it. Like I'm not, no one's magazines out that were published last month.
53:30Right. With rankings that are static, you know, so I'm trying to be very like deliberate in how I'm talking about these like targets and avoids and stuff.
53:38And the same, that's why I'm showing these ADP, this ADP list that you guys know why I'm coming to the conclusion that I'm coming to.
53:46Was it Buka? Was it Buka? All right. And who are you to know that the Eagles offense was going to be terrible?
53:53I know the Eagles, the Eagles did screw me last year.
53:57That's for sure. I had a great season though.
53:59So again, it's one of those things where I can like look back and be like, yeah, they got me instead of
54:06having to like feel bad about getting that miss, getting that L.
54:10Okay. Jalen Waddle, Drake May, DJ Moore, Joe Burrow, David Montgomery, Tyler Warren, Terry McLaurin, DeAndre Swift, Devonta Adams, All Roads, Bayshaal
54:16Tootin, Jamison Williams, and Jaden Daniels for round five.
54:19Yeah. Look, I like a lot of guys in this round too.
54:23You know, I wouldn't be taking a quarterback this early, but I think Tyler Warren's a fun pick this year.
54:29Maybe not as early. Terry McLaurin was one that I almost put as the best value here.
54:34Uh, I think that you could easily make that argument.
54:37I don't mind DeAndre Swift this year. I obviously like Bayshaal Tootin.
54:41Uh, Devonta Adams is fine. JMO's fine. Uh, but I'm going Jalen Waddle as my pick, uh, at the top of round five.
54:48This is an ambiguous pass catching environment, which is usually a good thing for wide receivers.
54:53Um, where, you know, you have Cortland Sutton, who's going to play the X and you have Jalen Waddle who, you know,
54:59like a Mecca Buka will play more of a zero.
55:02Denver's averaging 33 and a half past. Past temps per game over their last two seasons.
55:07That's an above average number. So you should get some passing volume in this offense.
55:12They ranked ninth and 12th and wide receiver target share over the last two seasons.
55:16These are Bo Nix seasons. Uh, Waddle has been, I said this at the, the fantasy expo, uh, cause I was on a panel.
55:24And one of the first questions was just a player that we're targeting this year.
55:28I just decided to go with Waddle. It's not like I have, you know, I mean, I think that I could consider
55:35him my favorite value because I think the upside is pretty crazy.
55:39Um, so we'll see. But, uh, what I said on stage, I'm saying right here is that he's been in two offenses
55:45in his career where there, his offense has had a positive EPA per play in those two seasons.
55:51He had a 2.59 and a 2.63 yards per route run rate, which is absolutely bonkers.
55:56Those are insanely good. Those are like prime Justin Jefferson type numbers, right?
56:00Now you get to Denver. Like I said, Sutton plays the X we saw last year, Troy Franklin played the zero at times.
56:07And there was a stretch. I talked to Harmon about this at the expo.
56:11There was a stretch where we were getting, you know, like, like hit up by all these people saying that Troy Franklin
56:17is the wide receiver one in Denver. And it was true.
56:21Like he was getting that kind of volume. He was an ad for me on 50 transactions, all that kind of stuff.
56:28Uh, but with that being said, like, I think they realized, Hey, Troy Franklin's not it.
56:32Right. Because, uh, you know, he doesn't do well off of press.
56:36He's not big enough to, to do well blocking.
56:39Um, and so I think that's why they spent the capital that they spent to get Jalen Waddle this off season.
56:45Um, so he's been efficient throughout his career. He's now in a really good offense.
56:50One of the better offenses in football, more than likely should see a strong target share.
56:55I think Jalen Waddle is a very, very strong pick this year, especially if you're getting them in round five.
57:01All right. Um, let's wrap this up, JJ. All right.
57:04As a reminder, like subscribe, comment on these videos.
57:06Um, you get a newsletter. We've got no one coming out today.
57:10You got a behind the scenes one from me coming out on a Friday.
57:14We have our new membership over there at late round.com.
57:17All this stuff can be found at late round.com, including the new merch.
57:21We talked about prospect guide, draft guide, and all access membership.
57:25Promo code late round at draft Kings. Uh, they had to draft one, get one.
57:29And I also just want to say after the show, JJ is drafting a best ball team.
57:34And during the show, I got this email. Maybe your cohost could follow you.
57:39If you didn't jump around all around the show sheet, JJ was getting blamed for your misspelled mistake.
57:44So frustrating. It is no wonder he couldn't follow.
57:47And you don't even know what a micro sect to me sometimes described as a minimally invasive spine surgery, because it requires
57:54only a small incision and the use of microscope or surgical glass.
57:57The surgeon also used it is some period. Sincerely disappointed.
58:00Uh, so someone took the time to write that email.
58:03My favorite part is that there's clearly a copy paste job with my credit.
58:08Yeah. You can see the links and stuff. It's very good.
58:11Very, very good email. Yeah. The person that wrote this email is the same person that will be writing the, uh, the
58:18email that's in your late round inbox. It was from Brandon Godula.
58:21So, uh, shout out to, uh, to Godula, our boy, uh, JJ final thoughts.
58:25Uh, no, I'm going to be going to be doing a, a Millie draft right now.
58:30So if you guys are watching, we got a lot of you watching right now, uh, go click that live stream in
58:37the feed or after this ends, it will automatically automatically go.
58:40So just give me a second. I got every, got to get everything set up, but I will be drafting a Millie team right after this.
58:48All right. So we appreciate everyone that has tuned in.
58:51Left comments. I appreciate P trip for this master's hats.
58:54Uh, it's nice. So, uh, we love you all and we'll see you next time here on the late round fancy football show sponsored by draft.
59:02Peace. This is an I heart podcast. Guaranteed human.
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