1115: Players to Target
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 11, 2026
Published
Tue, August 11, 2026
19
Player insights
16
Players mentioned
Topics
Breece HallJavonte WilliamsKyle PittsChase BrownChris OlaveCourtland SuttonDalton KincaidJaylen WaddleJeremiyah LoveJordyn TysonKenneth Walker IIIMalik WillisMarvin MimsMike Evans
Player analysis
Player insights
Breece Hall
PositiveProjection20:57
JJ Zachariason prefers Breece Hall over other running backs in his range due to a superior pass-catching profile and an offensive line that is better than the market gives it credit for.
Insight pagePositiveValue21:06
JJ Zachariason likes Breece Hall relative to the market, noting that the offensive line is better than perceived and the overall situation is stronger than consensus belief. Zachariason ranks Hall ahead of Javonte Williams due to his superior pass-catching profile.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveBreakout24:03
Chase Brown is a high-confidence target with top-five RB upside. He showed bell-cow usage (78% rush share, 13% target share) in his first six games last year and averaged 21 PPR points per game in games with Joe Burrow. His environment is stable, and he benefits from an improved, continuous offensive line.
Insight pageChris Olave
NegativeUsage50:18
JJ Zachariason views Chris Olave and Jordan Tyson as complementary pieces in the Saints' offense. While Tyson may see more underneath volume, Olave remains the team's primary vertical threat against man coverage. Zachariason believes both can coexist and produce, comparing their skill sets to Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
NegativeBust55:13
JJ Zachariason is fading Courtland Sutton again this year, citing his age and the likelihood that Jalen Waddle will command the high-value 'Z' role in the Broncos' offense. Zachariason notes that Sutton is a fine role player but lacks the upside of Waddle.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveBreakout43:00
JJ Zachariason is targeting Dalton Kincaid this year, noting he led all tight ends in fantasy points per route run last season despite a poor 51% route share. Kincaid's 2.79 yards per route run was elite, and he is now fully removed from the lingering PCL injury that hampered him. With DJ Moore opening up the field, Zachariason expects Kincaid's route share to increase, potentially vaulting him into mid-range TE1 territory.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveValue16:55
Evan Silva targets Javonte Williams, noting the Cowboys' commitment via a three-year, $24 million contract and their decision not to add other RBs. Silva views him as a high-floor, every-down back in a top-10 offense with potential to lead the league in rushing TDs. While JJ Zachariason previously had concerns about Williams' poor 0.4 yards per route run rate, he has moved him up to RB15 and is no longer fading him, acknowledging the value of being the clear RB1 in a high-scoring offense.
Insight pagePositiveValue20:46
JJ Zachariason has come around on Javonte Williams, moving him to RB12 and no longer fading him, citing the Broncos' consistently top-10 offense and a better-than-perceived offensive line.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveProjection53:58
JJ Zachariason is high on Jalen Waddle following his move to Denver, noting the Broncos' offense is more pass-friendly than Miami's. Waddle is expected to play the 'Z' role, which previously saw Troy Franklin earn high target volume. Zachariason considers Waddle the best talent on the Broncos and argues he should be drafted in the third-round tier of wide receivers, despite his current ADP of WR20 or later.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeBust21:21
JJ Zachariason is increasingly nervous about Jeremiah Love, ranking him at RB15 and questioning the organization's competence, leading him to prefer drafting Javonte Williams over Love.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveValue47:35
JJ Zachariason has Jordan Tyson as his WR1 since January and ranks him 51st overall, 35 spots ahead of ADP. Tyson benefits from an indoor environment, Kellen Moore's high-tempo offense, and a strong offensive line. Zachariason highlights Tyson's 99th percentile breakout score and notes that rookie WRs with similar profiles historically average 14.2 PPR points per game. He expects Tyson to eventually match Chris Olave in volume.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue4:57
Evan Silva argues Kenneth Walker should be a consensus first-round pick, though he often falls to the early-to-middle second. Silva ranks him RB5 overall, citing the Chiefs' intent to build the offense around him following Patrick Mahomes' December ACL/LCL surgery, which will likely lead to more check-downs and a return to the screen game. Walker has minimal in-house competition, and Silva views him as the team's best skill player outside of Mahomes.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveBreakout40:23
Kyle Pitts is a prime-age (26) target who is finally healthy after previous PCL issues. He finished second among tight ends in targets and catches last year and is in a barren pass-catching environment, making him a strong candidate for a breakout.
Insight pagePositiveProjection41:59
JJ Zachariason ranks Kyle Pitts as his TE5, ahead of Tucker Kraft, Sam LaPorta, and Harold Fannin. Pitts is entering his age-26 prime, and the Falcons' barren pass-catching corps behind Drake London and Bijan Robinson creates significant opportunity. Zachariason believes Tua Tagovailoa is the perfect quarterback to provide the 'PPR scammy' easy targets Pitts needs to succeed.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveSleeper33:22
Malik Willis is a high-upside, low-cost quarterback target. His rushing floor (projected 7+ points per game) makes him a viable fantasy asset similar to Justin Fields, provided he maintains the starting job behind a potentially quality Dolphins offensive line.
Insight pageMarvin Mims
NegativeDepth Chart58:19
JJ Zachariason views Marvin Mims as a gadget-only player at this stage of his career, especially following the acquisition of Jalen Waddle.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveValue29:11
Mike Evans is a high-upside target at his current 5th/6th round ADP. Despite injury concerns, he is positioned as the primary X-receiver in a high-volume San Francisco offense with elite deep-ball quarterback play from Brock Purdy.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue7:44
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Parker Washington, preferring him over Brian Thomas, Marvin Harrison Jr., and DK Metcalf in season-long formats. Washington saw a 79% route share post-buy/Travis Hunter injury last year and was highly efficient, with 1.45 yards per route run more than Thomas and Jakobi Meyers. Zachariason notes that middle-round WRs with high efficiency but low previous PPG often outperform ADP, and he ranks Washington around the 60th overall player despite a 90th overall consensus ADP.
Insight pagePat Bryant
PositiveSleeper55:38
JJ Zachariason identifies Pat Bryant as a sleeper target in the Broncos' offense, noting that he was poised for significant usage before his injury last season. Zachariason believes Bryant fits the mold of receivers who succeed in Sean Payton's scheme.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:54This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharysen.
0:58JJ Zacharysen. What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharysen. And in this episode 1115 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
1:05I've been doing episodes in August on players to target and players to avoid for years now.
1:10Basically since the podcast started. But over the last handful of years, I've been doing these episodes with a guest.
1:17And those guests have been the same guests each year.
1:20Two of the absolute best in the fantasy football industry and Evan Silva and Rich Rebar.
1:25It's sort of become tradition at this point. And these episodes, I look forward to them each and every year.
1:31So today we've got Evan Silva from Establish the Run on the show to talk about five players he's targeting in drafts this year.
1:39He sent me over his list of five, and then I added five more of my own.
1:44We don't automatically agree on each guy. But you guys can hear the reasoning, hear why we're thinking the way that we're
1:51thinking, and then hopefully make better decisions during your draft.
1:54Of course, with this being a players to target episode, we're doing this based on where these players typically get drafted.
2:00We're talking about values here. We're not just telling you to draft Jameer Gibbs.
2:05We all know that you should draft Jameer Gibbs.
2:08We're instead looking at this from the perspective of value.
2:11Now before getting into my conversation with Evan, I just wanted to send another reminder to check out the Late Round Draft Guide.
2:18There's well over 270 pages of content that includes game theory, strategy, ways to spot, breakouts and busts, players to target, players to avoid, and more.
2:26It's all updated weekly directly to your email inbox.
2:29Check it out, learn more over on lateround.com. Now let's look at 10 players to target with my guy, Evan Silva.
2:36All right, Evan. Here we meet again. Last year we did some players to avoid.
2:40This year we're going to do players to target.
2:43We each have five guys that we will be talking through, kind of giving our takes, having a little back and forth about them.
2:51But I'll kick it to you first. Give us a player that you want to start with that you are targeting in
2:57a lot of your drafts this year. Kenneth Walker.
3:00Kenneth Walker. I mean, I think he should be a first round pick, like a consensus first round pick.
3:06He pretty consistently lasts until the early to middle portion of the second round.
3:11But I strongly believe that he belongs. I have him number nine overall.
3:15I have him as my RB5 overall. I think it makes all the sense in the world for the Chiefs to build their offense around Kenneth Walker.
3:23I think that's what they're planning to do, especially with Patrick Mahomes coming off of December surgery.
3:28It was in December to rebuild his ACL and LCL.
3:32Patrick Mahomes has already talked openly about how he's not going to run as much this year.
3:37He ran a lot last year before he got hurt.
3:40That will translate, I think, to more check downs, more screens.
3:43The Chiefs want to go back to using more of the screen game, which was a staple of Andy Reid's offenses for many, many years.
3:51And they kind of have gotten away from that in recent seasons.
3:55But they've talked about how they want to get back to that.
3:59The Chiefs gave Kenneth Walker almost $15 million a year and almost $30 million guaranteed.
4:03That is a lot for a running back. The Chiefs' top pass catchers right now are Travis Kelsey, who turns 37 a
4:10month into the season, and Rasheed Rice, who had knee surgery in May and had to rehab from knee surgery in literal jail.
4:18Our offensive line guru at Establish the Run, Brandon Thorne, and rated Kansas City's offensive line eighth best in the league.
4:24And I think you can strongly argue that Kenneth Walker is the Chiefs' best skill position player, aside from Patrick Mahomes at this point.
4:32His top backups are Amari DiMarcado, who was in Kansas City on basically a veteran minimum deal, and rookie Emmitt Johnson, who
4:39lasted until the fifth round of an historically bad running back class.
4:42So Kenneth Walker has so little in-house competition for work.
4:45This offense is going to revolve around Kenneth Walker.
4:48I like him as a longer shot bet to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year at 40-1.
4:54Yeah, I love the call. You look at what the Chiefs had last year with Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.
5:00They were eight in rushing success rate as a team.
5:03They were 27th in rushing yards over expected per attempt.
5:06And the reason for that, that we see that sort of dichotomy is...
5:10Well, first off, we know that Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco are not explosive runners, right?
5:15They had one 20-plus yard run on over 280 carries last year, where Kenneth Walker does the exact opposite of that.
5:22You know, last year they were like 8.5%, 6%, 10-plus yard run rate.
5:26Kenneth Walker, 15% 10-plus yard run rate, right? Like, Walker's been the home run hitter, lower success rate kind of player.
5:32And we even see that... You see that in his runs, he bounces the outside, and he'll try to outrun defenders.
5:39And that, you know, he can do it because he's very fast.
5:43But that also, you know, he'll get tackled behind the line or just make a stupid play, and then that lowers his success rate.
5:50But with this offense, you're going to see high success rates.
5:54They faced the highest percentage of light boxes last year.
5:57And so I think what we're going to see is, at the very least, a potentially just annihilation on the ground for
6:04Kenneth Walker and what he can do in the offense.
6:07And, you know, like you said, the big question mark, I think, is the receiving stuff.
6:12But at the very least with him, you know, he had that one target share spike season with Ryan Grubb when he was offensive coordinator.
6:20And then the other three seasons, he's been in like that 8% target share range.
6:24But like you said, I think they can get back to the screen game a little bit more with Walker.
6:31And he's been good per route run, which to me signals that he can do this.
6:36You know, it's not so much a, you know, deficiency as much as like, like he's just not being fed in that way.
6:43And then Mahomes coming off the ACL. You know, I think that's another factor from a red zone perspective of them using Walker close there.
6:51I mean, your, your rankings obviously aggressive at RB five.
6:54I have met like RB eight or nine or something like that, but he's in that giant tier for me, you know,
7:01with like the Saquons and all the, you know, and chase Browns and such.
7:05So I'm in cause you know, in best ball, you're going to see, and that's the thing that I want to be
7:12clear about on today's show is that we'll be shouting out like guys, obviously that we're drafting versus ADP, but even in
7:19best ball, like Kenneth Walker's like a one, two turn type player in season long drafts.
7:24You look at season long ADP managed leagues. He'll go in the mid to late second round, you know, and at that
7:31area where it's like a clear teardrop in terms of where he's being drafted versus some of those other running backs.
7:37It's just such a clear target. In my opinion, let's move on to one of my guys and we'll talk about, we'll
7:44talk about Parker Washington Silva because you know, he's, he's pretty controversial right now.
7:48I know that a lot of people are in for sure.
7:52Cause there's a lot of camp hype. I almost wish that there wasn't camp hype with Washington.
7:57Cause it's cause obviously his ADP is going to rise a little bit as a result of that.
8:03Um, you know, if you're, if you playing, if you've been playing best ball, you're seeing him, you know, we play on
8:10draft Kings over here at late round. And, um, you know, we've seen him go in round five very consistently over the last couple of weeks.
8:18Um, but it's totally different in season long. He's wide receiver 35 over on Yahoo, which is after Brian Thomas, after Marvin Harrison, Jr.
8:25After DK Metcalf, I personally am taking Parker Washington over all three of those players.
8:30Um, I I'm, I'm, I'm very bullish on what this offense did last year after Travis Hunter went down with that injury.
8:37And it also coincided with their buy, but pre buy and, and pre Hunter injury, we saw 53% route share from Parker Washington post-buying Hunter injury.
8:45We saw a 79% route share for Parker Washington.
8:48His yards per route run after the Travis Hunter injury was 1.45 yards better than both Brian Thomas and Jacoby Myers, which is absolutely insane.
8:56Um, and Jacksonville over that timeframe, they were third in the NFL and offensive touchdowns per game.
9:01Uh, we've seen this Liam Cohen offense, uh, force the ball to the slot.
9:05And the other thing with Parker Washington, just as a player, I think a lot of people have sort of like typecasted
9:12him as this like slot slot yak guy, which he can definitely do.
9:16You know, he's kind of got that like running back build to him in a way, but he gets down the field,
9:23you know, his a dot is, is not eight or nine yards.
9:27I mean, he had a 12 and a half yard a dot last year and he can make plays down the field,
9:34which I think is very, very important. Um, you know, that, that he's not just this PPR scammer.
9:40Um, and then if you look at some historical trends where, uh, if you look at middle round wide receivers who had
9:46a greater than two yards per outrun rate, but a points per game mark less than 12 in the previous season.
9:53So guys who are very efficient per route run, but they didn't get it done in points per game, probably because they weren't seeing that much volume.
10:01Uh, historically middle round wide receivers, wide receivers ranked 19 to 42 who fit that criteria.
10:06They've outperformed ADP expectation by 1.2 PPR points per game, which is pretty strong.
10:11All things considered. There's also two other guys that fit that criteria this year is Terry McLaurin and Luther burden.
10:17So guys who are very efficient per route run, but they just didn't get it done in points per game.
10:23And there were, there were obviously reasons for that, but I think this offense is going to continue to, to, to run through Washington in the end.
10:32You know, the, the, the, the camp hype is not stopping that thought and feeling.
10:36Um, you know, obviously there's, there's plenty of mouths defeat, if you will, in this Jacksonville offense.
10:42But to me, why, like what they did, uh, signals that they should probably continue to do that thing because it worked for them last year.
10:50Similar to like, you know, they went out and they draft a blocking tight end in round two.
10:56They get Tanner Cozio later in the draft, who I think is actually a pretty good prospect and pass catching prospect.
11:02But regardless, you know, a lot of the thought was, are they going to force more, you know, heavier sets, heavier personnel
11:09and, and run a lot more 12. But I think that this, this team is, is smart and logical.
11:15Liam Cohen's a good coach and obviously personnel dictates that they should be running a lot more 11 than anything else.
11:22Given the, the, the, uh, personnel that they do have, uh, you know, a wide receiver.
11:27And given that, you know, I don't think Washington's going to leave the field quite as frequently as we thought, maybe even like three or four months ago.
11:35I'm in on Parker Washington. He's going a lot later in, in managed leagues.
11:40Um, and so if you're not getting him in best ball, which sure I get it to a degree, but I do
11:47think that you should be snatching him in season long.
11:50So I think that Parker Washington is really good, like a really good player.
11:54I think he's always been really good. Um, he's a guy, he, his final season at Penn state, well, he broke out
12:01as a 19 year old at Penn state in 2021.
12:04And he had 64 catches for 820 yards with bad quarterback play.
12:08And then the next year he was on pace to do similar stuff.
12:12Uh, but then he, he broke his ankle and he still declared for the draft.
12:17Right. So he did not participate at the combine coming and he, and then he was not a hundred percent at a, his pro day.
12:24So we went in the sixth round and dudes like like go into sixth round or seventh round, or, you know, UDFA,
12:31they just don't carry the same weight, especially like when you have like teams that are transitioning front offices or coaching staffs,
12:38you know, like they're, they're not tied to those players.
12:41Like they are to early round picks. So that puts Parker Washington at a disadvantage.
12:46He still overcomes, you know, the, the changing from Doug Peterson to Liam Cohen and the changing of the front offices and
12:53endears himself so much to Liam Cohen that he becomes the Jaguars number one receiver for what?
12:58The back half of, of last season and produces in that role.
13:02Yeah. I think he's really good. Um, however, the Jaguars have four receivers that they can play.
13:07Yeah. And now they have two tight ends after they used a second round, they locked up Brent, Brenton strange and they,
13:14um, and they drafted Nate Borkercher in the second round.
13:17And so I'm like, you know, Liam Cohen, like it, it just feels like he wants to play, play like a lot
13:24of different personnel packages and keep the, you know, keep the defense off balance by playing a lot of different guys.
13:31Jacoby Myers is going to play. Brian Thomas has a unique role within the Jaguars offense.
13:36He's going to play Travis Hunter is probably not going to play that much, but when he's in the game, I think
13:43they're going to be trying to get him the ball.
13:46Right. You know? So I'm like on the fence with Parker Washington, even though I believe, you know, I think it's, it
13:53might be worth it taking a stand on him.
13:56Like this is a bet on talent situation. Right.
13:58But when I look, when I zoom out and look at the environment and the situation, I'm just like, I, I haven't taken a big stand on him.
14:07Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, a lot of this definitely for me, cause I, I did not expect to be in on
14:14Washington this year because I figured he would be steamed up and you know, people were just really excited about what he did last year.
14:22And he is to a degree. Like, I think again, in like a high stakes circles, best ball circles, you definitely see
14:29him going where I think he should probably be going.
14:32So it's not like I'm, I mean, I was overweight just based on like me getting him in like the late sixth
14:39round at times earlier this off season, but it's obviously gone up a lot more.
14:43Right. But realistically, like this is pulled from last week, this ADP, this is pulled from Thursday of last week.
14:50And so, you know, five days or six days prior to most of you guys listening to this episode, his consensus ADP
14:57on CBS, Yahoo and ESPN and overall ADP. So not where he's ranked as a wide receiver 90th overall, 90th overall in a, in a season.
15:05Why would you not take a chance at that point in the draft?
15:09You know, I would take a chance. I mean, I, I have him ranked like 60th over.
15:14Like, I think he's like a, you know, like end of five round kind of player or round five kind of player.
15:21Because I start, that's when I start really going to upside mode and thinking about, you know, the ceiling case for a lot of these guys.
15:29And, and the fact that we can get him almost three rounds before or after that is, is kind of nuts in my opinion.
15:37Just, just based on what we saw down the, because I think that like, like you said, the environment is rough.
15:43Like it's not the easiest. I mean, it's good from the standpoint of efficiency and the offense should be good.
15:49It's rough from a competition standpoint. I think Brian Thomas is a very good receiver.
15:54Jacoby Myers is really underrated receiver. And obviously Travis Hunter, I think is going to play more offense probably than, than what
16:01they're there or what the consensus thinks right now.
16:04And so, yes, that's super, super scary. But when you're, when you're in that range in the draft, it just feels like
16:11you should be betting on talent and you should just be leaning into that a little bit more and saying, go for it.
16:18But I can understand more of the hesitation if you're, you know, in round five and there's some really good wide receivers and some really good talent.
16:26That's going around him. You know, that's when it would be a little bit scarier.
16:31All right, Evan, let's hear your next player on the list.
16:34I don't want to say that we disagreed on Parker Washington.
16:38I honestly, I've thought about, I think about it every day.
16:41Like, should I take a stand on Parker Washington?
16:44Like a bet on time. I think about it every day and I just have not gotten there yet, but I know
16:51that we're going to disagree on this player. So let's hear it.
16:55This is when the fun starts. Javante Williams. So unlike JJ, the Cowboys love Javante Williams.
17:00Okay. Because they have showed that through their actions.
17:03They made re-signing Javante Williams to a three-year, $24 million deal with $16 million guaranteed.
17:07Literally their second move of the entire offseason. They released some linebacker.
17:11That was their first move of the, first transaction of the offseason.
17:15The Cowboys' second transaction was to lock up Javante Williams.
17:18And then the Cowboys did not draft a single running back, nor did they sign a single running back in free agency.
17:25Right. Brandon Thorne rates the Cowboys offensive line top 10 in the NFL.
17:29And in our notes, we had him write, Brandon Thorne wrote an article for us breaking down each offensive line.
17:35It's super, super in-depth. Check it out at Establish the Run.
17:39Yeah, he does better offensive line work than anyone else in the world, basically.
17:43And I think he gets better every year, too.
17:46Yeah. Yeah. And this is his best article. He specified in his write-up that the Cowboys' strength as an offensive line is their run blocking.
17:54Javante Williams is not like a sexy pick. Yeah.
17:56And J.J.'s about to lay that all out. But he is a true every-down back in a top-10 offense with a chance to be top-5.
18:04Yep. He just turned 26 years old in April.
18:07And you remember he had a super debilitating, almost career-threatening knee injury.
18:11I believe it was in 2022. And he's sort of been on his way.
18:15I mean, it felt like at one point in Denver that he could fall out of the league.
18:21Yeah. But he has obviously resurrected his career. The Cowboys love him.
18:25He typically lasts until the middle to late parts of the third round and sometimes the early fourth.
18:30And I think that he belongs—I actually think that he belongs near the 2-3 turn.
18:35And I'll take him every time in the middle of the third round.
18:39I think he's a high-floor pick. Yeah. And I think he has upside to compete for the league lead in rushing touchdowns this year.
18:47So, do you know where you have him ranked right now?
18:50Yeah, I can look at it right now. So, the reason—I'm curious of where you're at with him versus like Brees Hall, right?
18:57Where, you know, to me, Brees has the profile— I literally have them next to each other.
19:02Okay. Okay. So, to be fair, I still have Javante.
19:06Look, Silva's painting me as this huge hater, right?
19:08This huge Javante fader. And, you know, like I still have him like RB15.
19:13You know, I still think that he belongs like close enough to that area.
19:17He's risen a little bit in my rankings just because I've gotten to the point where— and I was telling Silva this
19:24before we started recording— where, of course, I'm going to have a data backbone with my takes in the way that I approach this stuff.
19:32But at the same time, I want to, you know, obviously provide context and not overthink things and have just sort of
19:39that like, you know, over-analysis, you know, angle to this that I think doesn't do anyone any good.
19:44And Javante is one of those players where I'm trying not to overthink it, you know?
19:49Because there are things that historically point to, you know, a potential underperformance with Javante Williams.
19:54Last year, he had a .4 yards per out run rate, which is beyond bad.
19:59I mean, that is—that's legitimately atrocious. He's a gross receiver.
20:02Yeah. Gross. Right. Legitimately atrocious. He has caught a lot of passes in the NFL, but he is extremely inefficient.
20:09Right. And so typically, when you get a yards per out run rate that low, we've actually like never seen a running
20:15back hit a double-digit percentage target share off of that low of a yards per out run rate.
20:21And so I'm sitting there and I'm like, okay, like not checking these boxes, kind of checking like the traditional dead zone back profile, right?
20:29But then I take a step back and I look at it and I'm like, I think that Jaden Blue is probably
20:36going to take on more than he did last year.
20:39But I don't want Jaden Blue to be the reason that I'm not drafting the clear RB1 in an offense that has
20:46consistently been, you know, a top 10 offense in the league, especially for fantasy purposes.
20:50So I've come around on Javante. I'm actually not—I'm not fading him.
20:54He's not, you know, a player to avoid for me.
20:57I think that it's getting interesting in that, like, running back area in general in drafts because I like Brees Hall this year, like, versus the market.
21:06You know, just because I think that offensive line is a lot better than people give it credit for.
21:12And that situation could be a lot better than what people believe.
21:15And so, like, I have Brees ahead of him because I just like the pass catching profile more.
21:21And then now you're getting into, like, like Jeremiah Love stuff, right?
21:25Because, like, like he's fallen for me just because I don't know how competent that organization is going to be with him, you know?
21:32And so to me, it's like, should we just be drafting Javante over Jeremiah Love at this point?
21:38Like, are you there or do you have Love ahead or are you, like, way out on Love?
21:44I'm pretty out on Love. I have Javante at RB12.
21:47I have Jeremiah Love at RB15. Okay. I mean, I think that's where I'm starting to trend, too.
21:52It's just like I'm getting more and more nervous about Jeremiah Love.
21:56But at the same time, man, I've seen round three and round four of drafts as pretty flat in general, which is
22:03why I don't have a strong opinion on someone even going for Javante in the early third or something.
22:09Because I don't think that there's so many clear cut paths to go unless, like, you know, at this point, the way
22:16that, like, Malik Neighbors is trending, if he falls or something like that.
22:20Or, you know, I'm really high on, like, Devante Smith, and there are some wide receivers that I really like in that area.
22:27But, you know, if we're talking strictly about the running back position, yeah.
22:31I mean, like, if you want to go that direction, I can understand going Javante.
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24:03Let's move on to my next player. I'm going to go with Chase Brown as the next one.
24:09I think that in that round two running back pocket, the two guys I've gravitated towards most are Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown.
24:16Those are the guys that I feel most confident in from a floor-ceiling perspective.
24:20I'm not necessarily including Ashton Gentian there as much just because he'll go a little bit earlier oftentimes.
24:26But these are the guys that kind of like go at the end of that tier, you know, Brown and Walker.
24:33And Chase Brown, to me, has an outside chance.
24:35Not even outside. Like a very real chance to be a top five running back in fantasy this year.
24:41If you look at his first six games last year, 78% running back rush share, 13% target share.
24:47He was a straight-up bell cow in that offense, but he was only averaging 9.7 PPR points per game.
24:53That was during a stretch where, you know, Jake Browning was under center and their offensive line was absolute garbage to start last year.
25:00And then after those games, he averaged 20.4 PPR points per game.
25:04And in games with Joe Burrow, Chase Brown averaged 21 PPR points per game, only behind Christian McCaffrey, B.
25:10John Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, and Jonathan Taylor. He was right there when Joe Burrow was healthy.
25:15Some might say that that has something to do with Samaj P.
25:19Ryan missing time during that stretch. But he still had a 14% target share with Joe Burrow last year.
25:25The ceiling is just really phenomenal. And in offense, too, that—and I heard Thorne mention this that I didn't even realize that I think is really key.
25:33This is the first time that, if I recall, that Joe Burrow has the same starting offensive lineman year over year, is
25:40what Thorne had mentioned, I believe, on your show.
25:43I think I was listening to it in the car one day.
25:47And to me, that's huge. Because the offensive line for Cincinnati has been by far the biggest struggle and problem they've had
25:54the last couple of years on offense. And now if you have some continuity there, more of them being like a middle-of-the-road
26:01offensive line instead of a bottom-five, bottom-seven one, that's where things could start to really click and this offense could really start to dominate.
26:08And if we get more neutral scripts, we get more of those favorable scripts, I think Chase Brown could benefit overall within this offense.
26:16We have market score now at late-round fantasy football where we look at the market score number, of course, the raw number.
26:22But we have market score comps where we'll look at a player's market score, his overall ADP, and his career year and find comps based on those numbers.
26:31And Chase Brown's closest comps are 2014 DeMarco Murray when he scored 22 PPR points per game and 2016 Le'Veon Bell where
26:38he scored 21.2 PPR points per game. When you look at all of the round two running backs, and this includes Kenneth
26:45Walker, they all have some sort of change within their environment, right?
26:49Even like coordinator changes and there's something that's moving that makes them at least a little bit more volatile.
26:55Chase Brown has such a stable environment that nothing really changed offensively for Cincinnati year over year, and it makes me feel
27:02more bullish and optimistic about what he can do in fantasy.
27:05So Chase Brown, round two all day. I'm above market, and I just think he's a really good pick.
27:11Love it. He's like an auto pick. I mean, I think he's worth consideration in the middle of the second round, and
27:18he's a lock pick anywhere in the late second round.
27:21100%. Brandon Thorne has the Bengals with the number 17 offensive line this year.
27:25That's really good. Yeah, for them, right. Yes, for them.
27:28And also, we did an ETR retreat this offseason, and he came.
27:32Brandon Thorne did. And I was just quizzing him on literally everything.
27:36Actually, I drove him home because he was flying out of Chicago.
27:40We did the retreat like an hour and a half out of Chicago.
27:44I made sure that Brandon Thorne sat next to me on the drive home.
27:48I just quizzed him about every offensive line. And he had been hanging out with Ted Karras, who is the Bengals' center.
27:55And I was like, oh, interesting. So, like, you know, what did you learn from Ted Karras?
28:00Or he did like a show with him. And Ted Karras loves the Bengals' depth on the offensive line, too.
28:07This kid, Jalen Rivers, he thinks is really promising.
28:09And they have Cody Ford, who's made a lot of starts in the NFL.
28:14So, not only do the Bengals have this continuity on the offensive line, they also maybe have some depth to withstand some injuries.
28:21I love to hear that. Another thing, to support your point about the target share regarding Chase Brown, the Bengals, like, have
28:28not addressed third receiver or tight end, really. I mean, Eric All's kind of interesting.
28:33Jasicki can do some things, although he's barely playable in the NFL because he's just a total one-trick pony.
28:39But, I mean, Chase Brown is the Bengals' third receiver, too.
28:42He's like a virtual every-down back and a third receiver on a high-scoring offense behind an upward-trending offensive line.
28:48Give him to me. Yes. It's like, again, I'm sitting here, I'm like, I don't want to overthink this.
28:54And it's crazy because people have this anchoring bias with Chase Brown because of the way he started last year.
29:00But he dominated after that, like, first month and a half of fantasy of the season when they got Flacco and then obviously got Burrow.
29:08All right, Evan, hit me with your next one.
29:11Mike Evans. Do I just, like, take all the boomer players or what?
29:15I mean, no, you got – look, you have a non-boomer on this list that we'll get to eventually.
29:21Yeah, this is a boomer pick, but I'm here for it.
29:24I'm leaning into the bit, you know, the boomer bit.
29:27Hardcore here. Mike Evans has a chance to be an absolute volume monster in San Francisco this year.
29:33Ricky Pearsall already out for the year. George Kittle tore his Achilles in January and turns 33 in October.
29:39Christian McCaffrey is 30. He had the most carries and touches of his career last year.
29:44The 49ers are so desperate. They had to bring back, probably washed, Debo Samuel purely out of desperation at the start of training camp.
29:52I know. Mike Evans is 33 with a seemingly increasing propensity to soft tissue injuries, which is a little bit scary.
29:58But he is Kyle Shanahan's new ex-receiver with high-quality quarterback play from Brock Purdy in an otherwise extremely fragile 49ers skill position group.
30:05So this year – and by the way, his ADP has been going down lately because there was something about, I don't
30:12know, some injury that does not matter at all.
30:15So people are really scared about that. And his ADP has been trending downward.
30:19This year we can get a future first ballot Hall of Famer in a juicy fantasy environment at like a fifth or even sixth round cost.
30:27I think he deserves to be going closer to the third or the fourth round turn.
30:32So I have a ton of Mike Evans this year, and I plan on cashing a lot of checks with Mike Evans scoring a ton of touchdowns.
30:41I've done a – I don't want to say 180 because I wasn't out on Evans, but I've gotten way into Evans over the last month or so.
30:50Let's go. And thinking about the situation and thinking about – it's kind of crazy that Evans' ADP, like you said, has gone down post-Ricky Pearsall injury, right?
30:58Like you would think that he'd go up at least half a round, but obviously this like other injury that's lingering that's there is scaring some people off.
31:07And I get it. Like this is – I think we could agree that it's at least like a volatile pick, right?
31:14Because, you know, he's older. You know, the injury stuff exists.
31:18And market score – one of his top comps, I've mentioned this on the show before, is unfortunately Allen Robinson's lone season with the Rams.
31:25No. Yeah. So like there is that like fear in the back of my mind where I'm like, what if the dude
31:32is dust and this is the – but then you sit back and you look at what happened last year in Tampa Bay.
31:39Not only did Emeka Ibuka really suffer from the Baker Mayfield play and have an outside the top 100 catchable targets rate, Mike Evans did too.
31:48And now you're moving him to San Francisco where, like you said, there's a lot of volume potential.
31:53But also he's been a down-the-field threat throughout his career.
31:56Even last year, his 12th year in the league, 89th percentile ADOT.
32:00He's getting down the field. Brock Purdy, number one in the NFL in completion percentage on 20-plus air yard throws last year
32:07and over the last three years combined. He has been the best quarterback at completing 20-plus air yard throws.
32:13In the NFL over this time. Now you can say scheme.
32:16You can say whatever. Brock Purdy is a baller.
32:19Like he's a lot better than what people give him credit for still to this day.
32:24So I think the match here is incredible. And then you think about what they might do close to the end zone.
32:31And if they're worried at all about CMC and his health, and obviously if CMC were to go down, their backups just
32:38aren't experienced and solid enough that they would rely on them close to the end zone.
32:43Then all of a sudden it turns into a Devontae Adams situation from last year, right?
32:48In LA. And I could just see this really, really...
32:51I mean, like I said, I do think that this is a higher volatile selection.
32:56But when you're at that 5-6 turn, which is where he goes and manage season-long leagues, like early sixth round, you should be shooting for upside.
33:04You should just be going for it. And to me, if you're getting Mike Evans as your wide receiver three or even
33:11wide receiver four, which is very possible, that's crazy.
33:14In this environment, that just seems pretty crazy. Next one on my list, I will go...
33:19You know what? I'm going to go with Malik Willis.
33:22This one, to me, is more game theory than anything else.
33:25It's a why would you not do this kind of situation, where in most home leagues, most managed leagues, you're going to
33:32have a pretty shallow bench or roster situation, where there's going to be enough starting quarterbacks and usable quarterbacks on your waiver wire.
33:39And even if they're not, like even if you're entering a league and you're like, oh, my league's really deep, it's a
33:4614-teamer, whatever, and we start multiple flex spots in our bench, yada, yada, yada, I think that you can pair Malik Willis
33:53with a more stable piece like Bo Nix or something and just have a solid quarterback that you know will be able to get you something.
34:01I still think Nix has some upside too. And then obviously, Malik Willis being that like insanely volatile, super high upside, super low floor type of player.
34:10But I would argue that the floor is not as low as what people might think.
34:15He had three starts in Green Bay. He averaged 58 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown per game.
34:20It's 11.8 points per game with his legs. We've had 25 quarterback seasons where the court since 2011 where the quarterback had
34:27seven or more points per game via rushing. So that's far below where Malik Willis was at.
34:33Malik Willis is almost definitely going to hit seven points per game via rushing this season.
34:38That's a higher end number for sure, but he's also like borderline prolific as a runner.
34:43Like we've already seen that in the NFL. That's what he was as a prospect.
34:47And so basically, I looked at quarterbacks who had 300 or more attempts in the season and then hit seven or more points per game with their legs.
34:56We had 25 of them. So they were playing a good number of games all while getting it done on the ground, right?
35:03Of those 25 seasons, only three of them ranked outside the top 10 in points per game at quarterback.
35:09Now, obviously, you're getting skewed results to a degree with like good passers like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, but the point
35:16remains that none of those guys ranked outside the top 20, which is where Malik Willis is being drafted right now.
35:23And I think when I think about Willis, I'm basically saying this is a Justin Fields type bet that we've been making
35:29over the last three years in fantasy where we actually knew that Fields was a questionable passer, you know, over the last
35:36handful of years that we've been drafting him, but we've been drafting him because when he starts, he gives us usable weeks.
35:43He's a very usable player and he gives us spiked weeks whenever he has just two passing touchdowns because of what he can do with his legs.
35:52So this really comes down to the fact of what if Malik Willis is actually decent at throwing the football?
35:58What if he's a much better passer than what the market is just assuming because of this change in scenery and, you
36:05know, his kind of career trajectory and the fact that, like, you and I have been doing this for a while, Evan.
36:12Have you seen a wide receiver room as bad as Miami's entering a season?
36:16No. I don't think I have. Like, I think it's the worst pass-catching room that I've ever seen in the, I mean,
36:23I've been doing this since 2011, 2012. You've been doing it even longer.
36:27Obviously, you have A-Chan, but in terms of wide receiver and tight end unit, no, this has got to be the worst.
36:34It's got to be the worst, right? Yeah. And so, like, that's very scary for sure.
36:39And I think, but I also think that's what's keeping this price lower.
36:43If he had one alpha, I think he'd be going like four or five spots higher in quarterback rank where he's going after QB 20 consistently.
36:51So, to me, this is more of a throw that dart.
36:55I'm not saying that Malik Willis is going to be a stud.
36:58I'm saying we don't know. And the market is kind of assuming right now that it does know.
37:04What we do know is that he's a great rusher and that often wins in fantasy football.
37:09So, I'm going to lean into that. So, I could say a ton of negative things and paint an extremely negative picture about Malik Willis right now.
37:18Right. However, based on his draft cost, I don't really care about the negatives.
37:22Right. Regardless of format where I'm drafting him, I love drafting him in best ball.
37:27But, when he's going as late as he is, I think you just think about the positives.
37:32And what you want at the end of the day, you just want to make sure, you want to make sure, especially
37:39in best ball, you want to make sure that he keeps his job.
37:43Right. You want this team to not circle the drain like immediately, like basically what happened with Justin Fields last year.
37:50I mean, that's going to be a very common comparison.
37:53Justin Fields went way earlier than Malik Willis is going this year, by the way.
37:57And I think that that starts with the offensive line, painting the positive picture because the Dolphins have invested a lot into this offensive line.
38:05They have two mountains of men at left tackle and left guard in Patrick Paul and Caden Proctor.
38:11It's the biggest left tackle and left guard combination in the NFL.
38:15Speaking of Brandon Thorne, this is going to end up being the Brandon Thorne show.
38:19Brandon Thorne told me that the Dolphins center, Aaron Brewer, last year should have won that award protector of the year.
38:26Best center in the league according to Brandon Thorne.
38:29So you have two mountains at left guard and left tackle and then the best center in the league.
38:35And then at right guard, you got Jonah Savayanea, second round pick last year.
38:39And then at right tackle, you got Austin Jackson who's made a lot of starts in the NFL and you also have a decent backup in Jamari Sawyer.
38:48So you have the makings of a potentially quality offensive line and you want that in front of a running quarterback, I believe.
38:55You don't want this situation to get out of hand.
38:58The Dolphins are losing every single week. They're not even competitive.
39:02Because they're playing from behind a lot, they're like, all right, Malik Willis can't battle us back.
39:07So we're going to go to Quinn Ewers. Quinn Ewers, by the way, did not embarrass himself when he got opportunities last year.
39:14And they could be like, well, maybe he could throw us back into some games because Malik can't do that.
39:20That's what you want to avoid. And I think that the positivity starts with the offensive line and you're hoping for a
39:27thousand yard rushing season, which Justin Fields did have.
39:30And I think it's squarely in Malik Willis' range potential outcomes, but you just got to make sure, you know, you got
39:37to try to get this thing to not circle the drain like right away.
39:41Yeah, a hundred percent, a hundred percent. And again, in a managed season long league, okay, you drop them.
39:47And if you're, and if you're worried about what direction this could go in, that's where I say, look, people think that
39:54I only take one quarterback on every one of my rosters.
39:58I think it's totally fine, especially if you're in like a 20 round draft to take two quarterbacks to get to pair
40:05him with like Brock Purdy or whichever quarterback out of that like giant tier ends up falling, get him with Malik Willis
40:11and you're, and you're good to go because you're at least playing the upside game, you know, with Willis and you're able to capture that.
40:19Let's hear your next one, Evan. Kyle Pitts. This isn't a boomer pick, is it?
40:24Kyle Pitts? No, no. It's just, it's just a guy that pisses everybody off.
40:28No, the Mike Evans and Javante ones were the only two boomer picks that you threw out.
40:34Okay. Yeah. Thanks. So I am well aware that Kyle Pitts was a perennial disappointment and borderline NFL draft bust from 2022 through 2024.
40:41He tore his PCL in 2022. We've seen what Ricky Pearsall, Brashad Perryman, Brock Bowers, Dalton Kincaid.
40:46I mean, just an injury that will strip away years from your career, if not end it outright.
40:52Kyle Pitts has bounced back from that it also didn't help him that Arthur Smith never liked Kyle Pitts.
40:58I mean, can you think of a more anti-Arthur Smith player than Kyle Pitts?
41:02No. No. And Kyle Pitts, for his part, was not a good player when he was coming off the PCL injury in 2023 and 2024.
41:10So it is easy to forget that of course Kyle Pitts did win the Mackey Award in 2020.
41:16He was the fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft.
41:19He had over 1,000 yards as a rookie. Last year, he's finally healthy.
41:23He finishes second among tight ends behind only Trey McBride in targets and catches.
41:27The Falcons loved him enough to give him the franchise tag and then they gave him an extension with $36 million guaranteed,
41:34the most in the league for any tight end.
41:37Kevin Stefanski has a very tight end friendly history.
41:40The pass catcher core is just completely barren behind Drake London and Bijon Robinson to the extent that we're talking about third
41:47round pick Zachariah Branch as a potential significant early contributor.
41:50And Kyle Pitts is going on age 26. He is firmly in his prime.
41:54So a lot of things have worked against Kyle Pitts in his career.
41:58I don't think that things are working against him anymore.
42:02And I also think that Tua is sort of the perfect quarterback to just pepper Kyle Pitts with targets.
42:08So I have Kyle Pitts as my tight end five ahead of Tucker Craft, Sam Laporta, and Harold Fannin.
42:13I was going to ask you because I see a lot of discussion on social media about like which quarterback would be
42:20better for this player for that player. My stance on the Falcons, and I want to hear if you agree, my stance
42:27on the Falcons quarterback situation is from a fantasy perspective, I just want Tua to start because he throws catchable targets.
42:34Like he's not, he's not the most friendly from like a, oh, this team's going to dominate perspective.
42:39But we want, like in the end, we do want that PPR scammy kind of look in our, in fantasy.
42:46We just want these guys to get easy looks.
42:48And I think that we'll see easier looks with Tua.
42:52Would you agree with that? Absolutely. Okay. Okay. It's good that we're on the same page.
42:57All right. I'm going to move on to my next player.
43:00I'm going to go with a tight end also.
43:03And I haven't talked about him that much, but he's been a target in the draft guide since the guide launched at the beginning of July.
43:11And I do want to give him some love on the show so that people know that I am in on him this year.
43:19And that's Dalton Kincaid. I was actually more so like on the sell side with him last year as he was doing
43:25some unsustainable stuff in the touchdown column. But he did finish last, dude, he finished last year with a 2.79 yards per
43:32hour run rate, which is absolutely bananas. One of the best in the league.
43:37Yeah. Yeah. Just a crazy yards per hour run rate.
43:40But he ran a route on just 51% of Buffalo's dropbacks, which was outside the top 30 among relevant tight ends.
43:46But that yards per hour run rate was top seven since 2011.
43:50And Kittle, George Kittle has three of those in the top seven because he's just a freak.
43:55So we're talking about like literal elite company with what Kincaid did last season.
44:00He finished tight end 14 because of that lack of usage.
44:03The route share was just so bad. But he was also playing a lot of that year hurt.
44:09You know, he had the PCL injury, which is the same thing that Ricky Pearsall was dealing with that he went back and got surgery for.
44:17Kyle Pitts. Yeah, Kyle Pitts. And this was to be clear two years ago where Kincaid had that issue and then it
44:24lingered into last year and just continued throughout the year.
44:27So we're now very far removed from that injury.
44:30And there are some favorable reports about Kincaid being healthy right now.
44:34And the way I look at this is really just a math equate.
44:38Number one, I think he's just a good receiver, like a good player.
44:42But then you just think of this from a mathematical perspective.
44:45He led all tight ends last year in fantasy points per route run.
44:49He outpaced expectation by two touchdowns, sure. But he's finished inside the top 20 in fantasy points per route run in each of his other seasons.
44:57And he ranks 8th among 300 plus route run tight ends in fantasy points per route run since he entered the league.
45:04He's been a top 10 tight end within that statistic.
45:07So I'm imagining a world where that route share goes from outside the top 30 to more maybe top 20, top 15.
45:14And then maybe you have this, you know, DJ Moore being there opening things up a little bit for him.
45:21Because I think, you know, they're obviously going to be using more.
45:24They need a presence on the perimeter. They've not had a presence on the perimeter for years now, which is why that
45:31offense has been funneling through, you know, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.
45:35And they just haven't had that player. I think that could open things up for Kincaid to maintain some of this efficiency.
45:42And if he is healthy, that route share could just go up.
45:46And all of a sudden, you know, you're getting a guy outside of at least low end tight end one, high end
45:52tight end two range that could finish mid range tight end one that could truly be a really strong fantasy asset.
45:59So I haven't really been on Kincaid, you know, a lot throughout his career so far, but this is the year that I'm kind of leaning into it.
46:08Man, you really, I think you sold me on him because he's another guy I've been like, should I move him up?
46:15It just takes a little bit of movement from a route share perspective for him to like legitimately dominate, you know, just a little bit.
46:23Yeah. And we know we're getting better health. Right.
46:25So where do you have him? Right now? I think I have him around.
46:30Yeah, I have my tight end 10. Gosh, I got to move him up.
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47:31That's LifeLock.com code football. Again, LifeLock.com code football. All right, my last guy.
47:35I love this guy and I think you do too.
47:39No, you definitely do too. Jordan Tyson. Oh, yeah.
47:41Any late round listener knows that this is a very big on him throughout the entire process, right?
47:47Oh, he's been my wide receiver one since January.
47:50Sick. Yeah. So Jordan Tyson is going to open his career in like the greatest environment ever created for maximum box score production.
47:57I mean, I guess with the exception of Chris Olave being there, but the Saints play indoors.
48:02Yeah. They are set up for shootouts. They're going to have to compensate for a bad defense that lost Brian Breeze, a
48:09starting defensive tackle recently for the season. They're coached by Kellen Moore, who I think is a proven talent maximizer, who emphasizes tempo and play volume.
48:17Kellen Moore wants to lead the NFL in offensive snaps every single year.
48:21Yep. Again, Brandon Thorne, Saints had the seventh best offensive line in the league, so that's really good for, you know, just environmental concerns.
48:29Yep. In the fantasy playoffs, weeks 15 through 17, the Saints play the Bucs, the Cardinals, and the Falcons.
48:35Love that. Yep. And then Nick Underhill, I was talking to him the other day, and he's watching training camp practice.
48:41He's like, he literally said that he thinks that Jordan Tyson might already be the best player on the Saints roster.
48:48Yeah. Which, by the way, Underhill is locked into the Saints more than any other person on the beat.
48:54He's amazing at what he does with the Saints.
48:57He knows. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He knows everything. I mean, he told us like weeks in advance that the Saints were going
49:04to take Jordan Tyson at number eight overall. Yeah.
49:07And nailed it. So I have Jordan Tyson. It's getting ridiculous.
49:10I have him at 51 overall, which is like 35 spots ahead of his ADP.
49:15That might be irresponsible, but I want Jordan Tyson on literally every single fantasy roster that I draft in 2026.
49:21Yeah. Yeah. I couldn't agree more. You know, people know throughout the process, he was my wide receiver one.
49:27His analytical profile was bonkers. 99th percentile breakout score, which is the most predictive metric that I have at wide receiver.
49:33Even if you look at like ADP trends historically, this is kind of interesting since 2014, we've had nine rookie wide receivers
49:40drafted at wide receiver 19 to 42. So like a middle round range at wide receiver who entered the league with a
49:47zap score above 90, which is where Jordan Tyson currently sits.
49:51The other names in that group are Malik neighbors, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Drake London, Jamar Chase, Jalen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, and Sammy Watkins.
49:59The average player there averaged 14.2 PPR points per game as rookies and only two of them failed to outperform ADP expectation.
50:06And one of those misses was Amari Cooper who had a good rookie season.
50:11He just was drafted really, really high that year.
50:13So his ADP expectation was higher. And then, you know, you mentioned the Chris Alave thing.
50:18This is, this is what's kind of driven me a little bit nuts about this situation.
50:23I think the two complement each other incredibly well.
50:26Like Jordan Tyson is a, he can be a zone beater underneath kind of player, which, which is why I think that he might be a more favorable.
50:35I mean, I like a much more as a value for sure versus Alave right now, but Alave has always been really
50:42good at against man and stretching the defense and going vertical, right?
50:46Like that's, that's always been his game because he can create such good separation in doing that.
50:51And so when you look at how the game of fantasy football is played, I think there's some chance that at least
50:58during like the second half of the season, we see Jordan Tyson just matching Chris Alave from a production standpoint and getting
51:05as much volume as Alave from a production standpoint because he might see some of those easier looks in the offense.
51:11It's similar to the argument of like Luther Burden versus Roma Dunze where the Dunze stuff is more difficult for me to
51:18really jump onto because yes, like he, you might love him as a wide receiver.
51:23He, he might be incredible, you know, by your eyes and your, you know, whatever analysis you're doing, but in the end,
51:30you still have to look at how this player is being placed within this offense and used in this offense.
51:36open kind of role because he's so good after the catch.
51:40And I think that, you know, I'm not saying that Jordan Tyson's a Luther Burden player because they're not really alike at
51:46all from that perspective, but Tyson can get a lot of those shorter, a lot of that shorter stuff where I think
51:53he could be peppered with looks in this offense.
51:56I mean, we're already seeing some of these clips from practice, which are just, I mean, it's just bonkers his route running ability, but I'm with you, man.
52:05I think Jordan Tyson, you know, again, he's been one of those guys I've had him ranked over Carnell Tate all summer
52:12and redraft and in dynasty, but I feel just so much better about this environment than I do Tate's in the end,
52:19you know, where, where I think that like we might look back and say like Tate's a better real life player or whatever the case may be.
52:27I don't think that's going to be the case, but I could see that happening.
52:32But I just think that what matters in fantasy football, Jordan Tyson can do very well.
52:37And that's what we're worried about here. Another boomer take, but, you know, these guys, Jordan Tyson and Chris Olave, they kind
52:44of remind me from a skill set standpoint and they, and they, of course, they play indoors of like Torrey Holden, Isaac Bruce.
52:51There we go. Yeah. I mean, they're not like super, like from a skill set standpoint too, like they're not super physical receivers.
52:58They're not going to run you over, but they're like super bendy and flexible and fast and they catch everything.
53:04And they're just like really, really good at playing wide receiver.
53:08Yep. And that's what Jordan Tyson and Chris Olave are.
53:11So yeah, I'm hoping that Tyler Shuck can be the, the Kurt Warner or, you know, even the, even the Trent Green.
53:18Yes. Yes. Wow. I did not expect to hear Trent Green on a podcast today.
53:22I almost, I actually talked about Shuck on the show.
53:26I just went with Malik Willis because I think it's an easier.
53:29Well, you know, the, the way that we, we are wrong about the Saints is if Tyler Shuck just isn't any good.
53:36Yes. A hundred percent. And I think that's a real, a real possibility.
53:40It is, you know, but I just, like, like you said, I, I trust what they have in front of him right
53:47now and including the coaching staff, you know, so it's a little bit easier to buy into just from that perspective.
53:54The last one I want to get to is, is Jalen Waddle.
53:58The dude's always been really good on a per route run basis.
54:01He had a 2.19 yards per route run last year, 24% targets per route run, 11 and a half percent first downs
54:08per route run, which was really strong. Ground wide receivers for them to, to, to give you the most fantasy production.
54:15Now he's in Denver. They've been 12th in the NFL and touchdowns per game over the last two years with Bo Nix fifth and pass attempts per game.
54:24So it's a more pass friendly offense than what Jalen Waddle was, was leaving or where he was in Miami over the same timeframe.
54:31Miami was 24th in touchdowns per game and 21st in pass attempts per game.
54:35So this is definitely a change in a favorable direction for Waddle.
54:39Um, you know that Waddle's only played two seasons of his career and an offense with a positive EPA per play rate.
54:46And that was in 2022 and 2023, I believe, uh, in those two seasons, 2.59 and 2.63 yards per route run rates.
54:53He scored 14.2 and 15.3 fantasy points per game, PPR points per game.
54:57But that was also with Tyreek Hill where Hill was, was it was peak Tyreek Hill.
55:02He's getting a, you know, 28 to 30% target share.
55:05And so obviously Jalen Waddle's not seeing all of that work or as much as he could.
55:10I'm not really worried about the competition in Denver.
55:13I think Jalen Waddle is like by far the best talent on that team right now.
55:18I know Cortland Sutton always has believers in fantasy and, and he's a fine player, right?
55:23He's, but, but also he's very good role player.
55:26Yeah. Right. But he's also on the wrong side of the age curve at this point.
55:31Um, I think that if anything, the guy that I've been targeting most is Pat Bryant out of this, out of this offense.
55:38Um, you know, yeah, right. I mean, this is, that's what we've seen work in the, in the Peyton offense historically.
55:45And I also think that he can play a little X like he's, he's capable of moving to the outside.
55:51So like, I'm worried about Cortland. So I've been worried about, like I faded Cortland Sutton last year too.
55:57I'm going to be fading him again this year.
56:00Um, mostly this year though, it's a really easy case because I think Jalen Waddle is going to play that Z role
56:07in the offense, which is if you guys remember, there was like a five week stretch last year where Troy Franklin was
56:14outpacing and out targeting Cortland Sutton and he was playing this role in that offense.
56:18And eventually the Broncos are like, you're not good enough to be, to, to be doing this.
56:24You know, we're going to start, uh, like in that playoff game, especially like Pat Bryant was about to eat before he got injured.
56:31You remember that in the, to, to start that game.
56:34And so like they, they started moving concussion, right?
56:37Right. Yeah. And they started moving things around. Like I, I think that J like Jalen Waddle, cause like during that stretch,
56:44Troy Franklin was getting like eight plus targets per game.
56:47Uh, and that's when everyone was like, Oh, is he overtaking Cortland Sutton?
56:51Is he the better? And it's not so much that it's, it's the scheme that was allowing Troy Franklin to get as much love as he was getting.
57:00Cause he was moving around the formation, getting those favorable matchups.
57:03They're going to do that with Jalen Waddle and Jalen Waddle is a lot better than Troy Franklin.
57:09Like, like light years better than Troy Franklin. So I am so, so excited about what Waddle can do.
57:15You know, I think in a lot of home leagues, you'll end up seeing them go like late fourth into the fifth.
57:22I think that you could easily argue him all the way up into that top of the like third round tier of wide receivers.
57:29You know, like I think that he is very close to, and I'm, I'm very high on like Devante Smith.
57:36I really like Zay Flowers. I w I would still take them over Waddle, but I think Waddle's like next with a Mecca Buka and stuff.
57:44Like, I think that the upside case is definitely there with Waddle this year.
57:48Whereas if you look at a lot of these season long platforms, he's like wide receiver 20 or later because you know,
57:55I think he's burned a lot of fantasy managers, right?
57:58Cause he's, he's, he's one of the he's got the Deontay Johnson syndrome where he gets hurt and then he leaves games.
58:05Then his, you know, it's just a very frustrating player to have, but when he's healthy, man, he's just one of the best wide receivers in the game.
58:14The Broncos agree with you. They give up a first and a third to go get him.
58:19Yeah. Poor Marvin Mims. And we mentioned like every Broncos receiver, he didn't even get him.
58:24I guess he's just a return guy at this point.
58:27I've just, I've just, you know, graduated to just viewing him as a gadget kind of player at this point, you know?
58:34Um, yeah. I mean, one thing that stuck out in Matt Harmon's reception perception to me for with regard regarding Jalen Waddle,
58:41because he's a player that, as you mentioned, he's sort of like, uh, he's sort of divisive or polarizing, you know, like
58:48some, some people just think he sucks, but I mean, he's really, really good at winning downfield in that role that you
58:55mentioned that Troy Franklin was sort of, you know, shoe horned into last year, but Jalen Waddle can still win downfield at an elite rate.
59:03And, um, the Broncos have the best offensive line in the league.
59:06Yeah. So they're going to give Bo Nix protection and Bo Nix is sort of like known as a, uh, like a
59:13layup passer, you know, throws a lot of screens, a lot of high percent of stuff around the line of scrimmage, but
59:20he was fifth in the NFL in air yards last year.
59:24Bo Nix was now he had more attempts than he probably will have this year, but they do want to stretch the field.
59:31Yeah. You know, and that's why they went and got Jalen Waddle.
59:35Exactly. So, um, I'm on board. Yeah. Love it, man.
59:38Uh, I appreciate the time. I love talking ball with you always let everyone know where they can find you and, uh,
59:45what you'll, you'll be up to this year. Yeah.
59:47Just establish the run. Dot com. Um, Michael Leone and I will be going head to head for this year's man versus machine.
59:55We're taping on Wednesday. JJ and I are recording this on Monday, but we're taping on Wednesday and hopefully we'll be out by maybe Thursday, certainly by Friday.
60:03I'm really excited. We, we have a lot of fun doing that show.
60:07You know, Leone comes at it from like a super spreadsheet oriented, um, standpoint.
60:12And I try to be, you know, the, uh, the, the ball knower, you know, and, um, and he, and I beat
60:19him in 2024 by like a hair and he beat me, although I actually won this past year by a literal hair
60:26because Levitan set, cause I was really high on Jamison Williams, who was a fricking league winner by the way.
60:32Sure. And then Levitan gave Leone the win on Jamison Williams, which was a bunch of crap, but that wound up tilting
60:39it and Leone got the win with an asterisk this past year.
60:42So this is like the rubber match here. Love it.
60:46I love it. Yeah. You guys, you guys are, you know, you guys are our friends of the, of the business friend, friends of, of late round fantasy.
60:54We love you guys. Um, and, uh, I'm excited to see that whenever it releases as always, make sure you guys are checking out late round.com.
61:02Check out the late round draft guide. Uh, that will be updated on Friday as usual.
61:07Uh, I will be back with becoming a best ball bro.
61:11And then we have the late round show and then we have a mailbag episode this week.
61:16So you guys will hear from me soon. Otherwise everyone, as usual, thanks for tuning in.
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