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1100: Mailbag - Kaelon Black, Model Discrepancies, and More

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

23 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 15, 2026
Published
Fri, May 15, 2026
5
Player insights
5
Players mentioned
Topics
Chuba HubbardDak PrescottJonathon BrooksJordyn TysonKaelon Black
Player analysis

Player insights

5

Chuba Hubbard

PositiveRole0:20

Chuba Hubbard is not a fade for me, but I have concerns about his efficiency as a pass catcher, which limits his upside. He could still provide a solid floor due to volume in the Panthers' backfield.

Insight page

Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection0:30

Dak Prescott's ranking outside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks is influenced by his rushing ability, but he remains a solid option in a pass-friendly offense. His ability to support multiple wide receivers shouldn't be questioned.

Insight page

Jonathon Brooks

PositiveSleeper0:10

Jonathan Brooks is an intriguing player with a well-rounded profile who could rise in average draft position if he can stay healthy. He brings a pass-catching element that the Panthers need in their backfield.

Insight page

Jordyn Tyson

PositiveBreakout0:40

Jordan Tyson is viewed favorably in many models, with potential as a wide receiver one, despite some differing opinions on his college production. His breakout score is reliable, making him a player to watch.

Insight page

Kaelon Black

NegativeBreakout0:01

Kalon Black has a concerning profile with age and production metrics that suggest he may not pan out as a successful NFL running back. His adjusted total yards per team play rate is the worst among day two running backs in the last 15 years.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

246
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. There's room for the people, room for the stuff, and room for the moments that happen along the way.
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0:38This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharysen.
0:41What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharysen. I'm Zacharyarysen in this episode 1100 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:47Thanks for tuning in. You guys know it by now, but the Late-Round Prospect Guide is still available to purchase on LateRound.com.
0:55It's got everything you need to crush your rookie drafts, and it's very much analytically driven.
1:00In the guide, you can learn about what goes into the ZAP models.
1:05You get ZAP scores for these prospects. You get my rankings.
1:09There's year two profiles. Let's not forget about those.
1:12And so much more. Check it all out over on LateRound.com.
1:16Now let's get to these mailbag questions. The first question this week is from my friend Joey Wright, at the Joey Wright on Twitter.
1:24He says, What is your process on Kalon Black?
1:27Now without a doubt, Joey's asking this question because there's a really strange interaction this week on Twitter between myself and someone else.
1:35And that interaction had to do with Kalon Black.
1:38And on this show, in this podcast feed since the draft, I don't think I've really broken down Kalon Black, the prospect.
1:45I've mostly talked about San Francisco reaching for him based on mock draft data.
1:50So objectively, from an analytical perspective, with the things that I look at, what do we have with Kalon Black?
1:57Well first off, I think overall, there's a lot of red flags to his profile.
2:02Not being an NFL Combine invite was a little bit weird.
2:06But I won't even hold that against him. What I will hold against him is the fact that he's already 24 and a half years old.
2:15Now this isn't to say that I care about his age from the perspective of having him through a second contract.
2:22Or that I'm worried about him breaking down quickly in the NFL.
2:26It's that generally, younger running back prospects are better than older ones.
2:30There's more room for growth, and if they enter the league at a younger age, that signals to us that they're talented.
2:38They were able to do that at a younger age.
2:41Oftentimes leaving college early. Now I'm coming off of an episode where I talked about the impact of this current college landscape
2:49with NIL and transfer rules, all that stuff. And how that's driving prospect age up.
2:54But it's generally driving the age up for undrafted players in later round picks.
2:59Not day two ones. Though we're bound to see some of this happening a little bit more.
3:05Where we get a 24 year old player getting drafted on day two.
3:09Just because there's more of them entering the NFL right now.
3:13That doesn't mean that we ignore the age signal though.
3:16We admittedly don't have a lot of data of top 100 running backs who were past their 24th birthday when they were drafted.
3:24In fact, the only other top 100 pick at this age since 2011 in the ZAP model database is RJ Harvey.
3:31And I think we'd all agree that right now, today, Harvey was overvalued as a dynasty asset.
3:37Largely due to landing spot. And that's not to say that things can't turn around.
3:42I'm just saying right now versus where we were a year ago, RJ Harvey's value isn't looking amazing.
3:49We know that age matters, even in this NIL era.
3:52And honestly, we can even ignore that raw age if you want to and just look at age adjusted production.
3:59Like if Kalon Black is 24 and a half years old but he produced right away, he had a sweet production profile
4:06when you adjust for when that production happened, then we might be more forgiving about his overall age.
4:13But according to my numbers, that's not really the case.
4:16I will say this. Black didn't even get a high-risk draft capital delta tag within the ZAP model.
4:22Which means the model has seen plenty of worse picks, which is kind of surprising.
4:27He's got pretty good size and even his pro day adjusted speed score is solid enough.
4:33Meanwhile, he had a best season reception share around 10%.
4:36That's a 47th percentile number. He had an adjusted yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age and strength of schedule of .6.
4:44That's in his best season. That's also a 47th percentile number.
4:48But that's percentile among all prospects in the ZAP model database.
4:52All prospects meaning the guys who were drafted or the guys who went to the combine since 2011.
4:58When we look solely at picks 33 through 100, so day two picks, we're removing the round one guys here, it's closer to a 31st percentile number.
5:07And that's for adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt.
5:11Now look, one number doesn't make or break a prospect.
5:14We've seen hits from players with an adjusted yards per team pass attempt this low.
5:19When we look at players in the ZAP model database who are below the .7 mark, remember, Kalon Black was .6.
5:26We find 37 running backs who were drafted between pick 33 and pick 100 since 2011.
5:32Of those 37, Eddie Lacy, Le'Veon Bell, Carlos Hyde, Tevin Coleman, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders each produce an RB2 type season.
5:39And Quinshawn Judkins is on that list too. He'll probably get there.
5:44Here's the issue though. Many of those players were really good on the ground in college.
5:49I have adjusted total yards per team play in the model too.
5:53And each one of those players cleared 1.74. Which means nothing to many of you, I get that.
5:59But Kalon Black is at 1.12 in his best season.
6:03And that's an adjusted total yards per team play.
6:06That's where I start to get concerned about his outlook.
6:09I certainly don't think that he's an elite receiver.
6:12But I think at one point, I mentioned that his receiving numbers were kind of awful.
6:18But they're not awful. I'd say they're below average for sure.
6:22But it's not to the point where I think he's like incapable of playing some role as a pass catcher.
6:28But we have to remember why we're looking at receiving metrics for running backs when we're prospecting.
6:34It's because it shows how well-rounded they are. It shows how frequently their teams were trying to get them the ball.
6:42It shows intent. It's not just about capability of being able to handle a 10% target share in the NFL.
6:48It's talent evaluation. And with Black, he's at least below average there.
6:53I don't know how you could point to any metric for him and say that he's got a good or great receiving profile.
7:00But yeah, I've seen worse. Where I haven't really seen worse is in total yards per team play.
7:07At least for this kind of draft capital. Among that same subset of backs who have been drafted between 33 and 100
7:14over the last 15 years, Black's adjusted total yards per team play rate is the absolute worst.
7:20And again, we've seen some hits from running backs with low total yards per team play rates.
7:26James Cook is one of them. He was at 1.19 in adjusted total yards per team play in his best season.
7:33Antonio Gibson's was 1.17. He's had his moments. The difference is that those two players, they were excellent in adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt.
7:42If we loosen parameters here a little bit and we look at players with adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt rates
7:49below .8 and then adjusted total yards per team play rates below 1.5, remember, Kalon Black is at .6 and 1.12.
7:57Significantly below those thresholds. We get the following day two running backs.
8:01Jarek McKinnon, who wasn't a traditional running back prospect, Terrence West, Matt Jones, Damian Harris, funny enough Ty Davis-Price, and then Trey Benson.
8:09Let's move that even further north. Let's go 1.7 in yards per team play and .9 in yards per team pass attempt.
8:16That added Alex Green, Steven Ridley, Kristen Michael, Kenyon Drake, Darrington Evans, Tank Bigsby, and Marshawn Lloyd, in addition to the other backs that I already mentioned.
8:26I mean, flat out, plain and simple, this is not a good profile.
8:30I genuinely don't know how you would spin this profile to look above average, at the very least.
8:36The problem is that the prospect himself isn't the only thing that matters, especially for running backs.
8:42There's no doubt that the system that he's in right now with Kyle Shanahan can give him a boost.
8:49There's no doubt that running back production in fantasy football is tied more closely to simple coaching decisions than wide receiver production is.
8:56This is why the model is still weighing draft capital and still isn't saying fade at all costs.
9:03And that's the key. I mentioned this on the late round show a couple of weeks ago, but my rankings, they've had Black ahead of ADP.
9:12Not dramatically, because I don't think he's a great prospect.
9:15But it was ahead, because I'm trying to recognize range of outcomes here.
9:19And I also know that weird things can happen in prospect evaluation.
9:24If he were a second round rookie pick, he'd be an easy fade.
9:28But he's not at all. Which is why, within this bad rookie class, I don't think he's a fade.
9:35I don't think he's a good prospect, but I don't think there's a lot of good prospects in this class.
9:41Am I excited about his potential? Not really. I thought there were more talented running backs to choose from when San Francisco made that pick.
9:50And historically, players with these types of numbers, they don't pan out at a very high rate at all.
9:56In fact, they just don't pan out. But again, it's a really weak class, and crazy things happen in prospecting all the time.
10:04You have to weigh the pros and cons. You have to weigh the range of outcomes.
10:10And with Kalon Black, it's fine if you want to throw a third round rookie pick at him.
10:16That's really not costly at all. You can just say, I'll plug my nose and just look at situation.
10:23But overall, do I think Kalon Black's a good prospect?
10:26No, I don't. This next question is from at Sideshow Tim2.
10:30It says, At some point, Jonathan Brooks has to be healthy again.
10:34The Panthers' backfield seems wide open. Canales loved him coming out of Texas.
10:38He seems to have a reasonable path to shooting up an average draft position.
10:43Or am I missing something? You're not missing anything.
10:46I think Brooks is a very, very intriguing player who I'll probably be in on this year when season-long drafts start.
10:53I've already taken him in best ball drafts. I think some people have painted me as a Chuba Hubbard hater because last year I faded him at cost.
11:03But I think Hubbard is a fine running back.
11:06My issue is, I don't think he's an excellent pass catcher.
11:10And so he doesn't bring enough upside for me to want to be aggressive with him.
11:15As of today, he's not a fade for me in 2026.
11:19But I do have my concerns. For one, we learned last year through a study that I did that middle-round running backs,
11:27their yards per-round run in the previous season, can be pretty predictive at the extremes.
11:32And look, Hubbard was a little bit better last year in that department at a 1.01 rate according to PFF.
11:39But he's been below that one mark in two of his last three seasons and three of his five seasons in the league.
11:47He has not been an efficient pass catcher. And I saw them bring in Rico Dowdle and drafting Trevor Etienne last year,
11:54a pass catching specialist, because they need a little bit more help there.
11:59But Brooks can bring that pass catching element to this Panthers offense.
12:03He's got that well-rounded profile. He also looked pretty good in the ZAP model.
12:08We just haven't been able to see him on the NFL field for obvious reasons.
12:13Now look, Brooks has not been able to stay healthy.
12:16And a big reason I don't have Chuba Hubbard as a clear fade right now is because of that.
12:23If things do go south, Chuba Hubbard just on volume alone can be fine in fantasy football.
12:29He's not the player that I'm going to aggressively target, like I said, but I do think he's going to have a very good floor.
12:37Because unlike last year, we had some data on Rico Dowdle being a decent NFL back.
12:43We have no data on Jonathan Brooks. And we have no idea if he's going to look the same after these injuries.
12:50But as a standalone late round target, yes, this is the kind of player, Jonathan Brooks, that I love throwing darts at.
12:58This next question is from Blue Skies from at Leaf Peterson.
13:01It says, any UDFAs that you're keeping an eye on this summer?
13:06Yeah, there's plenty of UDFAs. But there's one in particular who I'm interested in, and that's John Michael Gillenborg.
13:12I'd mentioned Gillenborg as a deep sleeper pre-draft, and then he didn't get drafted, which is sad because he had a 91st
13:20percentile height-adjusted speed score in the ZAP model, and his breakout score wasn't amazing due to program adjustments.
13:26It was 53rd percentile. But that's still not bad given the program adjustments.
13:30And I say program adjustments because he went to Wyoming.
13:34At Wyoming, though, he had a best-season yards per-out run rate in the 88th percentile, and a career yards per-out run rate in the 86th percentile.
13:43And in Kansas City, you obviously get Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
13:47But Travis Kelsey's on the verge of retirement. Noah Gray would probably be the next man up if Travis Kelsey retires.
13:54But it's not like he's just undeniably good. And there are mostly projects behind him.
13:59So why not? Interesting profile. Pretty good situation. Let's see what happens there.
14:04And I also think that Jeff Caldwell, on that same team, he's also an interesting UDFA.
14:09He's an absolute size speed freak. And Kansas City needs some help at wide receiver.
14:14Now look, I highly doubt either of these players are going to become something.
14:19Because it's very, very rare to see UDFAs really work out.
14:23I think I've only correctly called two of them over the last like six or seven years.
14:29James Robinson was one. Jalen Coker was another. At least that's who I remember most.
14:34But those are two names to watch out for.
14:37The next question is from Raw Luga on Patreon.
14:40It says, No, because that offense and Dak himself, it's very fantasy friendly.
14:44Something I do want to call out though is the way that we're thinking about this.
14:50I've done some research over the last couple of years.
14:53And while it's not bad to have a quarterback who has high end wide receivers, we should actually care more if the quarterback has no high end talent.
15:03There's a little bit more signal from what I've found.
15:06Typically, not always, but typically, those are the quarterbacks who tend to underperform versus expectation.
15:12When they don't have high end wide receivers or pass catchers, according to ADP.
15:16But Dak not ranking in the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks has just as much to do about rushing as it does anything else.
15:24He's not super mobile. And the market has adjusted to quarterback rushing over the last three to five years.
15:31So at the top of quarterback ADPs, we're getting like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson.
15:36But then there's Jaden Daniels who's still getting drafted high, Drake May, and so on.
15:41And they should. I'm not saying that's wrong. That's actually right.
15:44In my opinion. I'm saying looking at the ranking of Dak Prescott and saying that he can't support two wide receivers because
15:52of that ranking isn't super relevant these days. Because quarterback ADP is going to skew towards those mobile players.
15:59It's a pass-friendly offense, and those targets are going to be funneled to those wide receivers, as long as Pickens is there and playing.
16:07I wouldn't worry about Dak, who's been one of the better quarterbacks in the league since he's entered the NFL.
16:14There are far worse situations out there. The last question this week is from at Sam Hurd Shipping.
16:20It says, As fantasy players who aren't statisticians or spend their time researching data only use analytics and insights from the pros,
16:27what should I think of Jordan Tyson being so drastically different in so many models?
16:33Drafted him 102 because of you, but so many others think that he won't hit.
16:38Now, honestly, I haven't seen other models that are saying that Tyson won't hit, if I'm just being honest.
16:44Like most models will have him wide receiver three at worst, wide receiver one at best.
16:50Which I think is honestly pretty reasonable. I obviously like him as the wide receiver one, but I can see why a
16:57model might like Carnell Tate or Makai Lemon more.
17:00For Tate, he had better draft capital, you've got program adjustments or teammate score stuff that favors him, he's an early declare.
17:08Makai Lemon is too, and he had a really strong production profile.
17:12Depending on some metrics, you could argue that Lemon had a better production profile than both, that he has the best production profile in this entire class.
17:21Breakout score though is really reliable for me, so I lean on that and I lean on Tyson, but there are many, many ways to analyze production.
17:31Now, if I were to assume that models really do disagree with Jordan Tyson, I'd say it's probably because he missed a
17:38lot of time in college, and people could look at that a lot differently.
17:43Like, I use a prorated number in the ZAP model, so as long as the player plays six games, his season's going to count.
17:51Others may look at season-long data. That to me is a little bit unfair, but again, maybe they're finding signal through doing that.
17:59And I kind of already alluded to this, but Tyson's not an early declare receiver either.
18:04Some people really weigh that factor. I care more about age-adjusted production, even though early declare status is an input in the ZAP model.
18:13But some might weigh that more heavily than I am, and they might not care about age as much as the college year.
18:21Year one as a freshman, year two as a sophomore, and so on.
18:25There are loads and loads of numbers that we can look at, and so many ways to manipulate those numbers.
18:32College football data, unfortunately, is not super robust, but we collectively as a fantasy community have come up with a lot of cool ways to measure things.
18:41And some of those things will be in one model, but not another.
18:46And sometimes for some players, that can make a difference.
18:49Though I stand by the fact that I haven't seen Tyson further down than wide receiver three in a model.
18:56But I'm not looking at every single model that's out there, obviously.
19:00But I think you asking this question raises a point that I think is very valid.
19:06And that's, how do I know what models to follow and what to rely on?
19:11Now, I did talk about this more in depth a couple of mailbag episodes ago.
19:16But I'd make sure that you're listening to an analyst who's being open and transparent, talking honestly about the inputs and their process.
19:24If they're just throwing names into a list without explaining the why, that's a huge problem.
19:29But there could be differing results analytically because the way we calculate things can be slightly different.
19:35Even just purely what we're solving can be different.
19:38I'm looking at B2S or the best two seasons across a player's first three years of his career.
19:44Someone else might be looking at top 24 performances or something across a player's rookie contract.
19:50Those small things can dictate what the inputs are going to be in a certain model.
19:55I guess what I'm saying here is just because something is numbers driven and analytical doesn't mean it's objectively true.
20:02We're humans trying to predict human behavior. We're trying to forecast how well humans are going to play a game.
20:09That means not only is the result pretty volatile, but the process in which we get to that result, that's going to be volatile too.
20:18No matter the method, whether it's purely film-based or purely analytics-based.
20:21But I see it no differently than how I see how there are differing ideas for film-based analysis.
20:28In fact, I'd strongly, strongly argue that numbers-based prospecting is going to align more closely to other numbers-based prospecting processes than film-based ones will.
20:36Just because there's more objective overlap. And because, in my opinion, when you prospect through numbers, it's a little bit easier to
20:43fix any issues that you might be having. And as you fix them and as you get better results, you're more likely
20:51going to align with others who are doing the exact same thing.
20:55That just doesn't mean that there's going to be 100% overlap.
20:59I'm going to have different results than Dwayne McFarlane and his rookie supermodel.
21:03And if you, the consumer, would rather lean in on the players where there's serious overlap between my analysis and Dwayne's, although
21:11I do think that Dwayne likes Tyson, but if you'd rather just draft the true overlap players, maybe there's some validity to that.
21:19Maybe that's a process that you can take on that has really good results.
21:24I don't have the answer to that because I'm trying to give you guys what I think is the best analysis or
21:31the best analysis that I can give. And it's analysis that I know has been successful, not just through how I've used
21:39it in my leagues, but how others have used it.
21:42It won't be perfect. Jordan Tyson is not guaranteed to hit.
21:46But I'm confident that what I'm doing is going to help you out in the long run because I've tested it and I've lived it.
21:54And there are others in the fantasy space who can claim the exact same thing.
22:00The guy I just mentioned, Dwayne, not only a friend, but he's a great analyst too.
22:05You just have to find the mix that works best for you.
22:09And you have to understand that we're not always going to see things the exact same way because we're projecting something that's inherently very volatile.
22:18That doesn't mean that we can't find a serious edge though.
22:22That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
22:26If you have subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it.
22:33Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
22:40Thanks for listening this week, everyone. I greatly appreciate it.
22:43Enjoy your weekend and I'll catch you next week.
22:46We'll see you next week. I mean, you could just keep buying new underwear.
22:51Not that I've ever done that. Or maybe sort your clothes into piles based on how re-wearable or filthy they are.
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23:04So even if you don't do laundry the quote right way, Deep Clean will knock it out.
23:10I mean, it is from the number one liquid detergent brand that tackles more loads than any other.
23:16Come clean with Arm & Hammer Deep Clean. Number one claim based on total wash loads sold.
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