Becoming a Best Ball Bro: A Different Approach in August?
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 13 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 12, 2026
Published
Wed, August 12, 2026
36
Player insights
30
Players mentioned
Topics
MarShawn LloydBrock BowersCyrus AllenKenyon SadiqStefon DiggsCaleb DouglasCalvin RidleyChristian WatsonColston LovelandCourtland SuttonDenzel BostonDontayvion WicksDrake LondonJake Ferguson
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Bowers
PositiveValue59:06
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Brock Bowers at his mid-second round ADP, noting that his 2023 underperformance was largely injury-related. The combination of Kirk Cousins and a weak wide receiver room (highlighted by Malik Benson hype) suggests a target share ceiling that justifies his current price.
Insight pagePositiveValue59:06
Sam Sherman is bullish on Brock Bowers at his mid-second-round price, citing that his underperformance last year was injury-driven and that the Raiders' offense, while not elite, provides enough competency to support his target share ceiling.
Insight pageCaleb Douglas
PositiveBreakout32:27
Sam Sherman mentions Caleb Douglas as one of the many wide receivers currently receiving positive camp reports.
Insight pageCalvin Ridley
NegativeValue45:33
Sam Sherman notes that he drafted more Calvin Ridley in May as a 'boring veteran' to avoid zeros, but is now shifting his late-round focus toward higher-upside rookies.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveUsage65:11
Christian Watson is expected to see a more consolidated role in the Packers' offense this season. His strong performance upon returning from injury last year supports his potential to outplay his current ADP as the team moves away from a wide-receiver-by-committee approach.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveBreakout67:45
Colston Loveland is projected to have a massive ceiling, with the potential to become the first tight end to eclipse 20 PPR points per game since 2020. In games where he ran at least 70% of routes last year, he averaged 18.5 PPR points. His upside is tied to the Bears' high-scoring offense and a hyper-targeted role alongside Rome Odunze and Tyler Burton.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
PositiveBust22:14
JJ Zachariason expresses skepticism regarding Cortland Sutton, stating he is one of the most confusing players for fantasy managers to remain attached to. Zachariason highlights that Sutton is on the wrong side of the age curve, has never been a consistent top-20 wide receiver, and is not a player to target for ceiling outcomes. With the addition of Pat Bryant and the trade for Jalen Waddell, Zachariason is avoiding Sutton in drafts.
Insight pageCyrus Allen
PositiveBreakout20:31
JJ Zachariason identifies Cyrus Allen as a major summer hype candidate. While acknowledging his small stature (180 lbs) and lack of a massive prospect profile, he notes Allen has a better breakout score than typical day-three receivers and fits the Chiefs' need for a downfield threat to complement Rashee Rice.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper44:12
Sam Sherman is willing to draft Cyrus Allen in the 18th round because he plays in an offense with top-five scoring potential and has a wide-open receiver room, though he warns against chasing him up the board.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
NegativeSleeper25:02
Denzel Boston is rising in ADP, but JJ Zachariason views him primarily as a best-ball-specific asset due to his red-zone threat profile and potential for spike weeks. While Zachariason acknowledges Boston is fine to draft in the 13th-15th round range, he cautions against over-drafting him relative to more talented prospects like Casey Concepcion.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveValue23:49
JJ Zachariason is heavily exposed to Dontayvion Wicks, citing his route-running ability and separation skills. With Makai Lemon struggling, Wicks has emerged as a viable starter who is being drafted late (rounds 15-17) despite having flashed high-efficiency seasons previously.
Insight pageDrake London
NegativeProjection52:38
Sam Sherman compares Drake London to Malik Nabers, noting that London has similar standalone upside without the injury concerns, making the choice between them a difficult draft decision.
Insight pageJake Ferguson
PositiveValue38:20
JJ Zachariason identifies Jake Ferguson as a high-exposure player (17% of his rosters) and a preferred target over Aranda Gadsden. He notes that the Dallas offense lacks a slot receiver and doesn't target running backs, creating a clear path for Ferguson's production.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveValue57:34
Sam Sherman highlights Jayden Daniels as a preferred target over Josh Allen due to his dual-threat upside and significantly cheaper ADP.
Insight pageJayden Reed
PositiveUsage65:11
The Packers' wide receiver room is expected to consolidate targets among Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks, moving away from the heavy rotation used in previous years. This concentration of routes makes Reed a strong candidate to outplay his current ADP.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeValue57:22
Sam Sherman believes Josh Allen is currently overdrafted at pick 28 on DraftKings, noting that the gap between him and the next tier of elite dual-threat quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels is too large to justify.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeRole46:49
JJ Zachariason notes that uncertainty surrounding Josh Jacobs' situation persists, which influences the flexibility of roster construction for late-round running back targets.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
NegativeValue32:51
JJ Zachariason remains committed to drafting Kenyan Sadiq despite a hernia surgery complication. He views the injury as a managed timeline rather than a long-term concern and believes Sadiq's elite athleticism and role in Frank Reich's tight-end-friendly offense make him a steal in round 17.
Insight pagePositiveValue53:00
Sam Sherman continues to draft Kenyan Sadiq even after his ADP tumbled due to a sports hernia injury, maintaining that he remains a good value at the cheaper price.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
NegativeProjection59:12
Sam Sherman notes that while Kirk Cousins is not an elite quarterback, he provides a base level of competency to the Raiders' offense that helps support Brock Bowers' fantasy value.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveValue57:34
Sam Sherman prefers the value of Lamar Jackson over Josh Allen, as Jackson provides elite dual-threat ability at a significantly lower cost.
Insight pageLuther Burden
NegativeUsage41:20
JJ Zachariason notes that holding shares of Luther Burden is currently not a sweet position to be in given the recent camp news.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveInjury23:09
JJ Zachariason is lower on Makai Lemon due to a lingering injury, reports that he will not start the season as a starter, and the mathematical reality of target distribution in the offense. He notes that rookie receivers rarely step in and dominate immediately.
Insight pageMalik Benson
PositiveBreakout41:49
Sam Sherman notes that Malik Benson is receiving hype for lighting up Raiders camp, though he cautions against overreacting to beat reporter highlights without knowing if the work is with the first-team offense.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveValue49:41
Sam Sherman is aggressively chasing Malik Nabers up the board despite his rising ADP, citing that new information regarding his health justifies the higher price.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveProjection20:11
JJ Zachariason expresses excitement for Malik Willis this season, attributing the optimism to the Matt LaFleur offensive scheme, which helped revitalize his career after his time in Tennessee.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
PositiveValue19:42
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Marshawn Lloyd, noting he is easily acquired in drafts. He highlights the Green Bay offense under Matt LaFleur as a consistent producer of top-half rankings in touchdowns per game, which provides a strong foundation for fantasy success.
Insight pagePositiveValue30:16
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Marshawn Lloyd, noting that he is a healthy, explosive player who can play all three downs. With uncertainty surrounding Josh Jacobs, Lloyd represents a strong value in the 15th round. Zachariason emphasizes that the Green Bay offense under Matt LaFleur is consistently productive, making Lloyd an attractive target for fantasy managers.
Insight pagePositiveUsage46:05
Sam Sherman identifies Marshawn Lloyd as a clear late-round running back target, noting that his health and depth chart situation have trended favorably.
Insight pageNico Collins
NegativeValue54:30
JJ Zachariason notes that Nico Collins' ADP has fluctuated between the end of round two and early round three, often influenced by the movement of other players like Malik Nabers.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue26:22
JJ Zachariason views Parker Washington as a legitimate player who is finally being drafted at his appropriate value in the fifth round. He cites reports that Washington will be an every-down player and notes that the 'Zap model' (his analytical tool) was correct about Washington's potential all along.
Insight pagePat Bryant
PositiveBreakout20:43
Pat Bryant is gaining significant steam in Denver, with reports suggesting he could move to the outside and potentially challenge Cortland Sutton for snaps. JJ Zachariason has been higher on Bryant than Troy Franklin since last year and views him as a standard Sean Payton big-slot type player. Zachariason recommends drafting Bryant in rounds 14-15, noting that he is a decent prospect who can effectively play the slot.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeBust60:28
JJ Zachariason identifies Rashee Rice as his primary fade among the top 30 wide receivers. He compares Rice to a 'dead zone running back' who relies on projectable volume rather than elite talent, noting that the Chiefs' offense could shift away from him. Additionally, he cites 'idiot tax' concerns regarding Rice's off-field issues and the lack of long-term commitment from the team as factors undermining his stability.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
NegativeUsage41:20
JJ Zachariason suggests that holding shares of Ricky Pearsall is currently not a favorable position based on recent camp news.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue6:03
Sam Sherman acknowledges that Stefon Diggs' move to Washington was a perfect landing spot, causing his ADP to skyrocket, though he admits he missed out on drafting him at the earlier, cheaper price.
Insight pagePositiveValue18:23
JJ Zachariason notes that despite Diggs' ADP rising to the 9th round on DraftKings, he remains undervalued. Zachariason ranks him in the same tier as Michael Pittman and Chris Godwin, preferring Diggs over players like DK Metcalf, Alec Pierce, and Wan'Dale Robinson. Diggs is expected to play a significant role as the number two target in Washington, with his skill set described as timeless and similar to a mid-to-late career DeAndre Hopkins.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:43J.J., yesterday we took my five-year-old son on a belated birthday trip to Disneyland.
0:48And we were walking on eggshells a little bit.
0:50Five-year-old on the spectrum. And the last couple times we've gone to the fair or Sesame Place, he's been just kind of
0:57touch and go about some of the rides. But he was fantastic.
1:00In fact, the only scary moment came not when we were faced with a giant snake in Indiana Jones or dynamite was
1:07blasting in front of us on Rolling Thunder. It was when we were halfway through the line at the Jungle Cruise, weaving up and down staircases.
1:14And he looked up at me and said, Daddy, I need to pee.
1:18I'm J.J., and over the last couple of years, I've been doing everything I can to be a best ball bro.
1:24And last season, things finally fell into place. I got 40th in the DraftKings Millie Contest, taking home $20,000.
1:30Maybe I became a best ball bro, but I'm still looking to learn more about this game.
1:35And I still want others to come on this ride with me.
1:38So even if you consider me a best ball bro, this could be your year.
1:43This could be the year that you officially become a best ball bro.
1:47This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball, and we've got a can't-miss
1:53offer on their biggest best ball contest ever. $20 million in total prizes.
1:57It's draft one, get one. Draft your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week, all season long.
2:04Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
2:08Enter a lineup in the $20 million best ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
2:14Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
2:17The crown is yours. Welcome into another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro.
2:21I'm JJ Zacharysen, and joined, as always, by Rich Ryan.
2:24Rich, what's going on, buddy? Doing good, man. Recovering from the mouse.
2:28Last night when we got back, we put him down.
2:31That was one of those moments. Sometimes you just crack open a cold one, and it's just like, this is the most
2:37satisfying beer that I could potentially drink right now.
2:40Yeah, yeah. I'm a big, look, I'm a big Disney guy.
2:43I love doing all things Disney. It's fun. I mean, for me, there's some nostalgia to it.
2:48You know, obviously, just, you know, growing up and watching Disney stuff.
2:52But like, I went to Disney a handful of times growing up, too.
2:56So like, I love the vibe. Like, we took my daughter before my son was around to Disney a few years ago,
3:02and it was like one of the best trips of my life.
3:05Because it was just so, you're so stimulated by everything going around you, it just forces you to be so present in the moment.
3:13That's what I love about it. They don't miss a single detail.
3:16And it's crazy just like walking around, even in the new Star Wars land, where nothing is like too tall.
3:22But you forget you're in Anaheim, California, like for the entirety of the day.
3:26To be fair, when I went, it was in May, and I didn't have any slow drafts going.
3:31I feel like if I, you know, had that happening, I might be a little bit more tilting where I'd be sitting there.
3:38Be like, oh, I'm going to rip a Millie real quick.
3:41And then, you know, just be just tilting in the middle of Cinderella's castle or something.
3:46He's literally just about to say, Cinderella, get out of the way.
3:50Someone just took Matt Stafford. Yeah, I'd be going up to all the different characters, asking them who their highest exposed players are and such.
3:57You know, Peter Pan is probably, no, he's got to go.
4:00I bet you Peter Pan's like really into Tank Dell.
4:03Small in stature. Yeah. Yeah, small in stature, like, you know, underdog story.
4:07Yeah, he's got, Peter Pan loves some Tank Dell.
4:09I need some, all right, we need some comps in the comments for Disney character to their highest exposed player.
4:15We need to hear, we need to hear more of that.
4:19That was just off the dome. Yeah, that was, there might be a better Peter Pan one.
4:24Yeah. There might be a better Peter Pan one, but.
4:26All right, I want to first dig into some of the stuff that I've been doing recently in drafts before we get to some risers and fallers.
4:34Because there's some really interesting risers and fallers this week with camp the way that it is and injuries and such.
4:41But first, I want to talk about two things.
4:43The first thing is I'm leveling out exposures. Like I said last week, you know, I'm trying to make sure that, you
4:50know, like I said, like a Bashaw Tootin versus a David Montgomery.
4:53If I like Tootin a little bit more than Montgomery or like in the same tier, which is where I think things
5:00are going to be in my next rankings update.
5:02There's no reason why more than likely I should have an insane stand on Tootin versus Montgomery.
5:07You know, like I'm trying to be realistic and recognize those probability, you know, shifts in the way that I view these guys.
5:14So I've been doing that a little bit more, you know, getting guys like DJ Moore, getting guys like Quinchot Judkins.
5:20So I'm not at 2%, more at like the 4% to 6% range with some of these guys.
5:25But the other thing that I've been really focused on, and this is something I feel like this has been a theme
5:32for me and like an awakening for me this summer is CLV.
5:35And just thinking about that closing line value. And by the way, I got a couple of questions for people of like
5:42what CLV is, just closing line value. So it's just, you know, looking at where you drafted a player versus where that player is generally being drafted.
5:50You'll be able to see that obviously when things at the end of the season are true close, right?
5:55Because the end of the draft season, we'll know exactly where their ADP lands.
6:00But, you know, your goal is to get good CLV, a.k.a.
6:03I drafted Stefan Diggs a whole lot in rounds 12 and 13, and now he's around eight or nine guy.
6:09And so that's really good value, good CLV. I will say, and I talked about this with our guests today, that I
6:15think that CLV is probably a little bit overrated in the best ball streets.
6:19I'm not to say that, you know, you wouldn't want that really strong CLV.
6:23You, of course, do want that. But, you know, if that's the guy you need, that's the guy you need, period.
6:29I don't want to like overstate it and miss out on guys or then all of a sudden have to like fade
6:36a player completely because his cost gets too high.
6:39So if any of you guys like didn't get Stefan Diggs, then go after Stefan Diggs still.
6:44I think it's okay. But if you really want to play the CLV game and you are a little bit concerned about
6:50how little exposure you have to Malik Neighbors or Stefan Diggs, find contests.
6:54And there are contests out there, but find contests that opened recently that have only been around for a week or two at most.
7:01And that way, you know, that no one in that contest was getting Malik Neighbors in round four or Stefan Diggs most
7:07of the time in round 12 or 13. Whereas, you know, the Millie is one that's been going on since May.
7:13And so you have valuations of these players all over the place, you know, and so there's more, you know, higher likelihood of that CLV.
7:21So I've been doing a lot of the other contests on DraftKings.
7:24You know, I've done the new $59 because they opened that one up recently.
7:28You know, there's some other contests, too. I'm doing a lot of slows right now just to, you know, up my general volume of best ball drafts.
7:36But it's something to think about for people who, you know, might be a little bit discouraged after some news happens or
7:43like you got a lot of Ricky Pearsall and you didn't get enough Dazon Stribling.
7:47And just doing that to get that exposure, it's a really easy way to do so.
7:52And it's, to me, a way to mitigate that bankroll a little bit.
7:56Yeah, definitely. Certainly, where it gets difficult is especially early on in the process when people are trying to not predict but
8:02make bets where they're going to have positive CLV.
8:05A lot of that will come down to some of the free agents, right?
8:09There are people that are holding Tyreek Hill and Brandon Ayuk bags.
8:12And there's also people that might be holding rookie bags, guys that they hope to win jobs or crowded backfields where you're
8:19taking late round flyers on players that you would hope to get positive camp news and then close somewhere in the late single digits or something like that.
8:27So, yeah, it's a treacherous game. And to your point, how much are you really getting out of CLV if you get
8:34that round surplus in your bag but that guy is just like an average player on the season?
8:39Right, right. Yeah. You know, if Malik Nabors is actually bad this year for whatever reason or, you know, like doesn't live up to, like, it's possible.
8:47And then all of a sudden, you know, you're sitting there like, oh, I got all this CLV and it really didn't
8:53matter that much in the end, right? It's kind of the way that I felt about Ja'Cory Krosky-Meritt last year, right?
8:59Where I was pumped because I got a lot of JCM in rounds 18 through 20 last year.
9:05And then, you know, all this, you know, Brian Robinson gets traded, all this stuff starts happening.
9:10And then he's like a ninth round pick by the end of the summer.
9:14And I'm like, oh, yeah, this is great. And don't get me wrong.
9:18Like he had big weeks and he had some at the right time too.
9:22But it wasn't like he was this league winning player.
9:25You know, it wasn't like this was a guy that was finding your lineup consistently week in and week out.
9:31And so it didn't matter that much in the end.
9:33So keep that in mind that these guys are not locks to do well just because their ADP is risen.
9:39Yeah, it's a joke in the gambling space, which is where CLV comes from, is that you can't feed your family in CLV.
9:46CLV comes from like, let's say I bet a dog at plus seven and the line moves to six and a half.
9:53Like I have tremendous value in having that plus seven when the line has moved to six and a half.
9:58But I still need them to cover that seven in order to do it.
10:03And that's in a very I mean, we're talking about NFL game scores.
10:06That's like a very narrow, finite level of outcomes where those numbers have a ton more value than in best ball, where
10:13we have just such a wide swath of variance that can hit.
10:16There's 19 other players on your team that are going to impact things.
10:20You know, that's a great that's a great thing to bring up.
10:24Like with a line, it's literally just like, oh, this is one outcome.
10:27One thing is determining whether I win or lose this bet.
10:31Whereas with best ball, the bet is a one out of 20 player on your team.
10:35Right. You know, where even if that player does really well or doesn't do well, it might not even matter because of
10:42what else is going on on that roster. You bring in pod luck and all that.
10:47Like it is such a small data point in the massive data field.
10:50That is the entire outcome. Yeah. All right. Let's talk about some risers and fallers.
10:55I'll just kick it off because you you pulled some data together for this.
10:59And I think Stefan Diggs is the obvious place to start.
11:02This is from the last two weeks, the rising and falling.
11:05This is from the last week. Eight, four. So one week.
11:09OK. OK. Yeah. So about the last week. So Stefan Diggs is the biggest riser.
11:13He's now what? Like around nine type player over on DK.
11:16I still think that that's undervalued. And so if you are trying to get Diggs, I still think it's fine to draft Diggs.
11:23I have him ranked in the you know, this is season long, of course, but it does transfer over.
11:29But like I have Diggs kind of in that like Michael Pittman, Chris Godwin.
11:33I'm higher on Pittman than than than most probably versus DK Metcalf because I think Pittman could just outscore him completely.
11:39But they're all in the same tier for me.
11:41You know, like Chris Godwin goes in round seven.
11:44DK Metcalf goes in round seven on DK. I have Stefan Diggs above.
11:48Well, it's pretty easy to say it now, but like Alec Pierce, Makai Lemon would be drafting Diggs over.
11:53I think that Wondell Robinson, I'd still be taking Diggs over.
11:57And I like Wondell this year. But this is a really good situation for him overall where he can play inside out.
12:03He's going to be the number two target there.
12:06It sucks that Tunsil is now out for the year.
12:09I think that's a huge, huge blow to that offense in general.
12:12But I still think that Diggs is someone that you guys can be targeting.
12:16Yeah. And Diggs, I mean, he's just so talented around the ball.
12:20It reminds me of mid to late DeAndre Hopkins in that just his quality and skill is it's just going to it's kind of timeless, right?
12:27Like the athleticism could dip a little bit, but his ability to be open, catch the football, move the chains is just
12:34going to be one that is valuable for Washington.
12:37So, yeah, I anticipate him playing a pretty big role for that off.
12:40Pat Bryant is getting a lot of steam out of Denver right now.
12:44And that's really what this rise in ADP is showing.
12:47I've liked Pat Bryant more than Troy Franklin. I mean, I liked him more than Franklin even last year, you know, like towards the end of the season.
12:55I was a little bit fearful of Franklin post year one.
12:59Bryant was a fine enough prospect, maybe not elite, but was a solid enough guy who I thought was like the standard Sean Payton, big slot type player.
13:07You know, it's similar to like a guy that came out this year.
13:11Elijah Surratt had a Pat Bryant comp actually. And I was like, you know, I remember texting Matt Harmon, who obviously does
13:17a lot of work with wide receivers saying like, if only Denver needed a big slot because Elijah Surratt could just play that role.
13:24But Pat Bryant's getting a lot of love. There's talk about him moving to the outside more and maybe even, you know,
13:31taking over for Cortland Sutton at some point. I'll say it again.
13:34I said it last week on the show. And, you know, there were some comments about this.
13:39Cortland Sutton to me is just one of the weirdest players that people in fantasy football get attached to.
13:45I will never understand it. It's different in best ball.
13:48So, you know, there's a best ball show. I don't want to take it too far.
13:52Yes, he has spike week ability. Yes, he can score multiple touchdowns in a given week because of his size and stuff.
13:59We're on the wrong side of the age curve with them.
14:02He's never been a consistent like top 20 wide receiver.
14:05You're really not shooting for a ceiling when you're drafting him.
14:08Oh, and by the way, now they have Pat Bryant, but they also traded for Jalen Waddell.
14:13So, you know, I have not really been clicking Cortland Sutton that often.
14:17I've clicked Pat Bryant quite a bit, even with his like, you know, if you're getting him in round, you know, I
14:23mean, this says that he's still like 18 and 80 P, but I'll see him in around 16.
14:29Even I have no problem with that because it's so flat once you get past like round 13 and these drafts.
14:35So if you want to get Pat Bryant, if you want exposure, I don't think it's a bad idea to still click
14:41his name, you know, in round 14 and round 15.
14:44Decent prospect, a lot of steam. He can at least play the slot in that offense.
14:49And, you know, I'm not sold on Cortland Sutton.
14:52I like the offense in general. It's an offense that I think we can buy into.
14:56Pat Bryant up 15 slots, just like Elijah Surratt's fellow rookie AFC North player, Denzel Boston up 15 spots.
15:02I fit that transition in there. Rich, you're killing me.
15:05I thought you were going. I thought for sure you're going to talk about like Jacoby Lane.
15:10And I'm like, wait a second. And then you and then you pivot to AFC North.
15:14My gosh, so many layers there. Like how I did that?
15:18Segway. Segway. Denzel Boston. Yeah. Look, I have seen some drafts where people have reached for Boston above Casey Concepcion.
15:24And to me, that's a big mistake because I think Concepcion is very good, an incredibly good prospect.
15:29Early declare solid enough breakout score got work in different facets of the game, not just as receiver, but as a rusher
15:35as well, which gets a little bit of a boost in the zap model too.
15:40You know, I think Concepcion is just a really good prospect and player.
15:44I've seen the comp thrown around that I think is kind of interesting that like Concepcion and the way that his ADP
15:50is formulating right now reminds them of Garrett Wilson, his rookie season where environmentally it looked horrible.
15:55But the player himself is really good. Garrett Wilson is a better prospect than Casey Concepcion.
16:00So let's at least throw that out there. But I think Concepcion is really good.
16:04Like the zap model, if you guys, you know, read the prospect guide this year, Concepcion was very, very close in zap score to Makai Lemon.
16:12Whereas Carnell Tate and Jordan Tyson were like the clear alphas in this class.
16:16There was a gap to Makai Lemon and Casey Concepcion.
16:19And Jordan Tyson was the, you know, he had a score of like 96 in the model.
16:24The model absolutely adored Jordan Tyson. But yeah, Denzel Boston, I think can be, you know, he is a better and best ball type player for me.
16:32You know, he's definitely a red zone threat. He's going to have some spiked weeks in there.
16:37I think it's fine if you want to draft him.
16:40I'm just saying, hey, caution, don't get silly. And in my opinion, from a process standpoint, start drafting him over Concepcion because
16:46Concepcion is still very good, even though Boston's getting more hype.
16:49Sometimes these players get more hype simply based on what was expected of them going into camp.
16:54And if they're exceeding those expectations by a whole lot, these beats get really, really excited about what they're about, even though
17:01in comparison to what's already there or, you know, the player like Concepcion, who is supposed to be good because he's the
17:07first rounder, even though Boston had a good draft capital, too.
17:10You know, there are some instances where it's just versus like expected and expectation.
17:15So I would still be drafting Concepcion well ahead of Denzel Boston.
17:18But I think Boston's fine once you get into that.
17:21Like, you know, I know that he's more around 13 right now.
17:24It's fine enough. I'd rather be around 14, around 15 with them.
17:28But it's not the end of the world if you want to go that direction.
17:32It's unsurprising based on their archetypes that Boston might be looking better in shorts.
17:37I know padded practices have started, but just that style of player.
17:40Big guy, strong fella. We know Casey butters his bread after the catch.
17:44Very good breaking tackle, stuff like that. So that's the type of skill set that we're just not going to see in August.
17:51Maybe in the preseason, maybe as games start, but not right now.
17:54All right, let's go to, I was going to say the North.
17:58I guess I'm already saying it. The North and the other conference.
18:01Keep your segways going. Yeah, I want to hear how you take Denzel Boston to this next guy.
18:06Let's hear it. North and the other conference. It's the running back playing behind a fella who, according to Adam Schefter recording
18:13this today on Tuesday, might be hit with some sort of suspension.
18:16We'll wait to see. It's Marshawn Lloyd. Yeah, look, when Lloyd came out, you know, this is why I love having the
18:23prospect guides because I can go back and at least read the blurbs and read what I was thinking about these players as they were coming out.
18:31And Marshawn Lloyd had a very complimentary type profile.
18:33He was not a player that profiled as the one A in his backfield as, you know, in a normal backfield.
18:40I think if there's an injury or something like he'd be fine, but he's not someone that more than likely would carry a massive workload.
18:47He's just really explosive and a good complimentary player from that perspective.
18:50And so you have him being healthy. I think that he can still play all three downs and, you know, be a quality player from that perspective.
18:58So I think that where he's going right now, like this is one of those like CLV instances where like, it does
19:05not matter if you did not get Marshawn Lloyd in the 20th round or the 19th round back in June.
19:11And now you have to spend a 15th rounder to get Lloyd.
19:14Well, you waited. I think it was actually kind of smart because you waited enough time to see if he was going
19:21to be healthy to see how things looked in camp.
19:24Because we know that so far in his NFL career, he just walked onto a field and seemingly, you know, pulled a hammy.
19:30And so you see that he's healthy. You see this, the stuff going on with Josh Jacobs, you know, obviously you could
19:37have thrown some darts whenever the stuff was really happening with Josh Jacobs, but he's still around 15 guy.
19:42You know, he's still someone that you can get and acquire very, very easily.
19:47So I am in on Marshawn Lloyd. Not only that, but it's an offense that we know historically with, with Michael floor
19:53has been, uh, or Matt LaFleur, my gosh, now that there's two of them, this is going to be really bad, but
19:59we know that that under LaFleur, they've been a top half offense every year in touchdowns per game.
20:05I always throw that stat out there because it just tells you that it's an offense that we can feel good about.
20:11We are excited about Malik Willis this year because of LaFleur, right?
20:15That guy was left for dead in Tennessee and went to go play in a LaFleur offense and is now a guy
20:21that is making multiple millions of dollars for the dolphins.
20:24And we're excited about this year. So I will definitely believe in LaFleur until I have given evidence to, to not do so.
20:31We talked about some young receivers that were getting some hype, but I think the leader in the hype train so far
20:37this summer might be this guy in Kansas city, Cyrus Allen.
20:41Yeah. It's kind of crazy, man. You know, he was someone that wasn't even in the prospect guide because he wasn't at the combine.
20:48And then, you know, I didn't get to do a writeup on him.
20:51I studied him a little bit after the fact, didn't mind him, but didn't think he was like the obvious day three pick.
20:58But oftentimes with day three guys from an analytical perspective, there's not much rhyme or reason, especially at running back.
21:04I mean, running back for sure, where it's more so about like that year's depth chart than anything else and how those guys perform.
21:11Like look at like Woody Marks last year who, you know, Marks had to find enough profile, had a really good receiving profile.
21:18That's the kind of stuff I look for. But if you were to start doing the matching stuff and trying to find
21:24trends for day three hits in general, it's not the easiest thing in the world to do in this day and age.
21:31If you look at history, there are definitely time.
21:33I mean, like Amin Ross, same Brown or Stefan digs, these players, like you go back and you look and you're like,
21:40how in the world were these guys not drafted on at least day two, you know?
21:45And so I look at Cyrus Allen and I don't see a profile where I'm like, oh, this dude is an absolute monster.
21:51But I will say his breakout score is a little bit better than some of the other wide receivers that you would typically see on day three.
21:59And he does have a profile that I do think would fit with what the Chiefs need, which is a guy who
22:06can get downfield and play all over the formation.
22:08He played a lot in the slot in college, but a lot of people believe that, you know, size could be a limitation for sure.
22:16He's only 180. So maybe he won't be able to play in the perimeter that much.
22:20And obviously Rasheed Rice is already manning the slot in Kansas City, but Rice isn't that much of a down the field threat.
22:27He's more of a yak threat, whereas Cyrus Allen can stretch the field.
22:31And they've had that problem in that offense for years now.
22:34I mean, Mahomes has not been a good deep ball thrower.
22:37Let's just be real about it. Like he's been well below average over the last couple of years.
22:43I think some of it is him for sure.
22:45Some of it's also personnel. Xavier Worthy hasn't worked out yet.
22:48They have, you know, they've been relying on, they relied on Taequan Thornton last year who was actually okay in that role.
22:55But if they can get a guy who can move around the formation a little bit more in Cyrus Allen, I think it does make sense.
23:03So to me, he's fine. It's a click. He's easier.
23:06I think in season long than in best ball, just because you can drop them.
23:10If, if things like, you know, if he's only running, you know, a route on, on 20% of their dropbacks or something
23:16like that, which is very possible to start the year.
23:19But I do think that you can, you can click Allen right now, because again, once you get in that like round
23:2615 range, round 14, even things are really flat at all positions.
23:29You mentioned Makai Lemon briefly earlier and his injury continues to linger, which has seen Duntavian Wicks lift up two rounds in, on draft games.
23:37Yeah. And Makai Lemon has been dropping a lot.
23:39I mean, David Kitchen did a draft where he grabbed him today, I think at like in like round 11 of his draft.
23:46And so I've actually gotten some criticism from people, not criticism is too strong of a word, but like questions about why
23:52I've been lower on Makai Lemon in my rankings.
23:55And part of it is just kind of like math.
23:58Like if you look at projections, you look at the way things would be spread out around this offense.
24:04And, you know, it just doesn't work out as well as you might think from a Kyle Lemon, but also he's been hurt.
24:10And now there's even more, you know, injury related stuff going on with him.
24:14Now there's reports happening where they're saying that, you know, he's not going to start the season as, as a starter, and
24:21that it might take some time for him to get acclimated and yada, yada.
24:25I think that's all very real. We see that every single season where wide receivers, they don't just OBJ themselves back into the starting lineup and start dominating.
24:33You know, they got to get acclimated. They got to understand what that offense is all about.
24:38And so with Philly, they actually have an alternative right now that they haven't had in the past because they haven't had
24:45the depth at all at wide receiver. But Dontavian Wicks is showing up in camp.
24:49He's had some random spiked, like really high efficiency seasons in Green Bay.
24:53It hasn't been totally consistent. And obviously he's had a lot of, of issues with like concentration and being able to haul in balls.
25:00But when it comes to like route running and ability to separate, that hasn't really been a problem for Dontavian Wicks.
25:06And so maybe he just needed a change of scenery and he needed a spot where, you know, he could be a
25:13true number two behind Devante Smith, not necessarily the focal point in his offense.
25:17Wicks is one of my highest rostered or exposed wide receivers right now because I was drafting him earlier this out because
25:23I was taking a lot of Jalen Hurts. Makes sense.
25:26You're a Hurts guy. Yeah, exactly. Right. I had, I had a lot of Jalen Hurts and Makai Lemon.
25:32I wasn't drafting as much as honestly, I probably should have been, but I just wasn't, you know, when he was where,
25:38you know, where, where he was going. It's not like I have none.
25:42I think I'm at like 5% Lemon or something like that.
25:45And then Wicks was just the guy that was, you know, deep in round 19 that nobody wanted, even though there was
25:52a chance that he was going to be a starter.
25:55And so I think that you can still be drafting him.
25:58Like I'm still drafting him. You, I'm getting him in round 16, round 17, round 16 mostly at this point, but, or, or, or 15 even.
26:05But I think it's fine to take him there because I do think he's going to play a role and he's flashed at times in the NFL.
26:13So I'm in on Wicks. The final one, and maybe the most consequential one, because you're starting to see him creep to the top of the fifth round.
26:22It's Parker Washington. Yeah, man. I mean, it's crazy that all these risers I'm, I'm actually kind of fine with like, there's,
26:28there's no one that I'm, I'm sitting here. I'm like, why is this happening?
26:32Yeah. You shouldn't be drafting him as high as he's going because the opportunity cost isn't shifting enough for, in my opinion,
26:39for a lot of these guys, or, you know, like a guy like digs.
26:43I just think that he's still undervalued. Parker Washington is now going where he probably should be going.
26:48You know, like that, that's, that's where I'm at.
26:51If you want to take him in round five, middle of round five, I think it's fine.
26:56There's so many positive, like we're getting confirmation slash we're getting real tangible, you know, ideas at the very least, maybe they're
27:02not concrete and maybe they're not definitively going to happen, but there are legitimate reports out there saying that Parker Washington is
27:09going to be the wide receiver that does not leave the field.
27:12And I'll tell you what he was doing what he was doing last year on like an 80, you know, 70 to 80% route share in that offense.
27:20Not even, and he was still dominating and giving you, you know, great fantasy production.
27:25Imagine a world where that is upped even further, you know, like he he's a, he's a good, good player.
27:31And there's a lot of trends historically that when you look at the, the highly efficient, maybe lower, you know, volume or
27:37point per game players across the season, they tend to do well versus ADP expectation the following year.
27:42That's also a Luther burden and Terry McLaurin thing as well for this year.
27:46But I've had Washington and Brian Thomas. Like if you looked at, you know, my rankings in July or something, I had
27:53always had Washington like one spot ahead. And then over, you know, with, with the camp pipe and the way that I've
27:59thought about this offense more, the way they're talking about this offense more, the more I'm just like, I think Parker Washington
28:06is a really, really legit player, you know, like where it makes sense.
28:10You know, I'm trying to think of what's most rational for these teams and what's most rational for Jacksonville is to keep
28:16Parker Washington on the field and to continue to run that offense the way they ran it during the second half of
28:22last year when they were the third best team in football and touchdowns per game.
28:27You know, like, I don't know why you would want to shift that and change that up when it was working for
28:33you, despite drafting a blocking tight end in round two and, you know, Tanner Coziel in round five or whatever it was.
28:40I don't think this is going to all of a sudden be a heavy 12 team, but even if it is, I
28:46think Parker Washington can still find the field. And then the other thing that does it for me too, is that when
28:53you dig into his profile more, number one, he actually wasn't that bad of a prospect.
28:57I went back. I kind of just, I kind of just like, and I started doing it this year a lot more,
29:04but I just got to hand it to the zap model and let it do its thing because anytime I disagree with
29:10his app model, it bites me in the butt.
29:13And that was what happened with Parker Washington. And that was back in the day when I published draft capital Delta as a pure number form.
29:21I don't do that anymore. I do low risk, high risk, or neutral draft profiles.
29:25So draft capital Delta being how the model views a player versus where his draft capital was right in percentile form.
29:31So back in the day, zap scores were just by percentile.
29:34And then I'd look at the draft capital percentile and the difference between those two things was draft capital Delta.
29:40Parker Washington had a draft capital Delta of plus 14%, which means he was way, way underdrafted.
29:45And then in the profile, I'm like, yeah, the zap model is probably overstating.
29:49It's like, no, I think the zap model was actually just right the whole time about Parker Washington.
29:55You know? And I just, you know, like that's, it's just one of those things where early on, it was a lot
30:01harder to like latch on to, you know, cause I hadn't published that stuff, you know, to the masses before in that way.
30:08And the more I've done it, the more I'm just like, you know what, I'm not even going to question this thing anymore.
30:15The robots know, uh, you know, the algorithm knows what it's doing at this point.
30:19And so I think he was a good prospect too.
30:22In hindsight, sure. But also what the model was saying.
30:25So to me, it's all coming together for, for Washington to be a pretty legit player.
30:30And by the way, I just got to throw it out there.
30:33I know it's a best ball podcast, but in season long leagues, he's like an eighth or ninth round pick on some platforms.
30:40So if you're in a season long league, just make sure you're hyper targeting Parker Washington because he's probably going to be a huge value.
30:47Bill Simmons has the rewatchables. You might have a spring series called like the, the redraftable.
30:52So the re prospectables or something where you crack it open five years later or something.
30:57I think it would be fun to do. Yeah.
30:59To do like a live stream or something and go through prospect guides of, of, of years past and just be like, what was I thinking doing this?
31:07Or like what, cause like there's some where I read the, a Mecca Buka blurb or, you know, profile from last year
31:14and it couldn't have been more right. You know, like, like talking about Mike Evans being gone this year, talking about how
31:20he's not just a slot player, a Mecca Buka.
31:23And like, I'm so proud of that blurb. And then there's some where I'm like, what were, you know, like the Parker
31:29Washington one, what in the world are you thinking writing this?
31:33You know, like, why are you not leaning into the things that you know you should be leaning into?
31:38You got to the W's and the God, you're like, I'm over it.
31:42Yeah. Falls off a cliff. Yeah, exactly. I do think that it's interesting content at least to just like go back, see what you were thinking.
31:50And, you know, and I feel that way about my rankings too, where I'm just like, why was I not more, you
31:56know, I was actually well above market with like Luther Burden and stuff, but like, why was I not more aggressive with that?
32:03Or why was I not more aggressive, you know, in the way that I was ranking these guys based on what the zap model is saying.
32:11And I tried to do it a little bit more this year, but the problem was this year, this class, you couldn't
32:17really do it because there was such a flatness to the wide receivers where like, I'm not going to be surprised if
32:23design scribbling is at the third best wide out in this class.
32:27Or if, you know, if we see Caleb Douglas be okay enough, you know, I just think there weren't many good wide receivers in general.
32:34So I know that we went on a little, little tangent there, but I do think that it's, you know, it's an
32:41interesting topic to think about as it pertains to best ball too.
32:44And we only got two followers cause we already mentioned the rookie receiver, Makai Lemon.
32:49So let's talk about a couple of tight ends.
32:51One, a rookie from my fighting New York jets, Kenyan Sadiq down two rounds after a complication after his hernia surgery, you had been drafting Sadiq.
32:59Where are you at now with this injury? I feel like Wolf of wall street right now.
33:04I'm not leaving. Man, I'm just, I'm just drafting them.
33:07I can't stop drafting Kenyan Sadiq. I don't know, man.
33:10You can tell me if I'm a moron as, cause you're way more tapped into the jets than I am.
33:16But to me, it's just this, a simple equation of very good prospect.
33:19Say what you want. You know, you can look at his flaws.
33:23I get it. I understand. But objectively a very good prospect mid round one pick elite athleticism in an offense that features tight ends.
33:30We know that with Frank Reich. Like, I mean, Frank Reich was, has, has glowed about having a Kenyan Sadiq on his team.
33:37Could this linger? Sure. But I'm trying to not fall into the trap that I fell into last year at times.
33:43You know, I had a good best ball season, but like there were times where like, I got really hyped up about
33:49like Ollie Gordon because Devon H and had this calf strain or whatever.
33:53And it didn't matter at all, you know, and I'm trying to not fall victim to that kind of thing right now.
34:00Luther burden is the same way where it's like, I'm still kind of drafting him at the discount that I'm getting.
34:06You know, I got him in round five earlier.
34:08You know, I'm mostly waiting to round five because I'm at like 20% burden.
34:13He's, he's probably my highest exposed like early round player right now.
34:16And so I am being cautious of that. I don't want to be too overweight, you know, et cetera, et cetera.
34:22But at the same time, I don't want to overstate what these early season injuries might be when the timeline points to them coming back.
34:30Alec Pierce, that whole situation is different in my opinion.
34:33You know, that's like, there's some really weird stuff going on with what's going on with Alec Pierce because they gave us
34:39a timetable that he's missed over and over. It hasn't come to fruition whatsoever.
34:43Right. Whereas the Kenyan Sadiq thing was, okay, he came back.
34:46He came back too quickly, seemingly. And now he's nursing this thing again, this, the sports hernia thing.
34:52And maybe he gets off to a slow start, but to me, there's still a very real scenario where Kenyan Sadiq is
34:58a very reliable player in fantasy as we get into like week four, week five.
35:02And as we get through the season. So if I'm getting a discount on him, I mean, I've gotten him, I know
35:09his ADPs around like round 15 right now or so I've gotten him in round 17 now.
35:14Like that's where he consistently goes. And I'm like, I just have a hard time in a non stacking environment, taking Cade
35:20freaking Otten or Colby Parkinson or something over Kenyan Sadiq.
35:23You know, like if it burns me, it burns me, but I'm also going with a lot of three tight end builds
35:30and that makes it a lot easier. Probably feel a little bit different if it was a two tight end environment, but that's where I'm at with Sadiq.
35:38Tell me that I'm not a moron. Well, and you said this a lot recently on a lot of shows about how
35:44successful first round rookies for rookie tight end specifically have been in recent history.
35:49The way the NFL has been turning. I will say the Jets are treating the D'Angelo Ponds, their rookie cornerback injury, the exact same way.
35:56They're not rushing whatsoever. And if you look at both Sadiq and Ponds, they're both extremely good athletes.
36:01They're both like eight plus RAS athletes. They played in big time college football programs into the college football playoffs.
36:07They feel like they know what they have in these guys and they don't feel any need to rush either of them
36:14onto the practice field when things just simply don't matter until a month from now when real games are being played.
36:20So everything that I've heard from folks inside the building is that there's no worry, right?
36:24Sometimes you get these injuries where guys not playing and you're waiting and you...
36:28Literally Alec Pierce. Yeah. It's like people are concerned as to what is going on.
36:33But these both injuries, I know this is one that's a defensive injury, but these feel like deliberate managed timelines and not like houses on fire.
36:41What are we going to do? I'm fully aware that it can burn me, but that's why he's being drafted around 17.
36:47And that's why, you know, I'm just, I'm just looking at the cost benefit there.
36:51So yeah, this isn't like you said. And now that it's even dipping even further, we're getting to the like completely meaningless.
36:58Just please find a guy that is going to get you points, parts of these trials.
37:03One more guy I want to touch on is Aranda Gadsden, who is falling because there's a lot of negative vibes around
37:09that tight end room and the way they're talking about them.
37:12I mean, they're talking about basically like an eight-way committee at this point with all the tight ends that they have and how they want to deploy them.
37:20On paper, from a process standpoint, and this is why market score had the comps that they, that it did for Gadsden
37:27on paper, he would seem like a smash. Like one of the most, one of the most productive rookie tight end seasons
37:33we've ever seen, like top 20 in NFL history came from Gadsden last year.
37:37One of the best offenses that we're projecting for this year and an offense that doesn't feature tons of 11 personnel.
37:44And so you could see the tight end benefiting in those situations, but it does seem like they are going to, you
37:50know, give David Njoku some run, Charlie Kolar some run, and it's, it's going to hurt Gadsden.
37:55Admittedly, I feel like that he might be a better season long dart than a best ball dart because there feels like
38:02there's a chance that there's just no usability from the tight end room.
38:05And I know that people could say, oh, well, he'll have a spiked week here and there.
38:10I wouldn't disagree, but he's going ahead of some other guys that are definitely going to have spiked weeks.
38:16You know, like, uh, he's still going ahead of Terrence Ferguson, for instance.
38:20And I, I, I don't see why, you know, similar bet from an offense standpoint and environment standpoint.
38:25Uh, of course, you know, you get too high target share players with Devante Adams and Puka Nakuha, but they don't target their running backs in that offense.
38:33We already know that. And they don't have a slot guy.
38:36So like Terrence Ferguson, I mean, look, Ferguson is like a 17% exposure guy for me right now.
38:42So like, I'm, I'm definitely saying this from the perspective of like, I like the dude.
38:46I think he's a really good, talented player, but I don't see the need to like reach for a guy like Gadsden
38:53when there are other bets as well, you know, for, uh, you know, a player like, you know, Terrence Ferguson.
38:59So kind of like off them and best ball for the most part, uh, at that price, unless I can get them
39:05at a two round discount or so, and then I will, you know, be fine with him as like a tight end
39:12to dart throw type in a season long format.
39:14When even somebody like Gisicki, who's like barely being drafted, right?
39:18Like there are guys that, again, when we're getting to some of those later rounds, like buying points, right?
39:23Like it, it just seems like it could be too treacherous with such a crowded room.
39:28Um, and despite him playing so well last year, like you said, the, unfortunately the model can't regress for new OC and
39:34a team that specifically went out and got two guys, right?
39:37Like it's, it's honestly, we talked about this offline as we, we closed last week.
39:42You and I, it's just, it's annoying because it's an offense that we want to buy into.
39:47It's a tight end position in an offense that we specifically want to buy into, but unfortunately for best ball, there is
39:53so much ambiguity that it makes a very, very difficult click.
39:57Yeah. Not a total fade for me, but, um, I don't think you need to like totally go after him at the moment.
40:03So that's it for the risers and fallers. We do have a guest today, Sam Sherman.
40:08He's a huge multimillion dollar winner in best ball on some other platform.
40:12He does best ball breakfast with Pete over Zed.
40:14He does a show with legendary upside and Pat crane called that's fair.
40:18We chatted about Josh Allen and his ADP, the importance of, of getting good CLV.
40:23So I thought that, you know, his insights were really great.
40:26Uh, some of the stuff that we talked about earlier, how he's drafting differently here in August, so much more.
40:32It was a great discussion. So here's my interview with Sam Sherman.
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41:32So we're now finally getting some camp news, which is sweet.
41:35I mean, it's not super sweet if you are holding a lot of Luther burden bags right now or Ricky Pearsall or whoever.
41:42But the question I asked last week, I'm going to ask you, how do you sort of keep a level head this
41:49time of year and sort of like avoid overdrafting zeros?
41:52Because there's a lot of hype with like a lot of these like day three rookies, for instance.
41:57Yeah, I think it's really tricky. And if you, you know, go on X right now, you'll see that basically every single
42:03wide receiver that was drafted this year is having an amazing camp.
42:07Like Malik Benson is lighting up Raiders camp. Caleb Douglas in Miami, so on and so forth.
42:12So I try to like weigh all this news.
42:14Like I'm kind of a spectrum or a scale.
42:17Like I think there are important things like injuries.
42:20Um, I think I'm paying a lot of attention to now again, like be careful of the like player X got carded
42:26off at one practice because oftentimes in preseason, like that can be a big deal and that can mean nothing.
42:32So try not to overreact to that too much in real time and sort of wait for the reporting to come out.
42:39But I think, yeah, like injury news, I think is important.
42:42I think reporting on snaps with the first team.
42:44I think I pay attention to that. I pay less attention to things like just highlight clips or beat road reporter saying,
42:51you know, player X is having an amazing camp.
42:54It's like, okay, are they having an amazing camp with the third team offense or the first team offense?
42:59Like that's what I think really, really matters more.
43:02Yeah. I think there's also going to end up being like this year, especially do you feel like this is totally subjective,
43:08but it feels like we're getting more day three random day two, especially this draft class where there wasn't like a ton
43:15of alphas and like a ton of like obvious profiles.
43:18Like we're just getting so many of them steamed right now.
43:21And I don't remember it being quite like this in the past.
43:24Does it feel that way? And, and I guess like, are you, do you lean into it a little bit?
43:30Like, are you leaning into like Cyrus Allen a little bit or Jacoby lane a little bit?
43:35Like just based on the way that, that some people, you know, some of these beat reporters are talking about them.
43:41Yeah. I think answering your first question, I do feel like it is worse this year.
43:46I was, I was actually, as I do a show with, with Pete over that weekly on his channel.
43:52And I was wondering, like, obviously this isn't the first off season where we've had algorithmic social media.
43:57Like, I think there's something about X like in their algorithm now that like amplifies hype cycles more than we would in
44:03the past because everyone's algorithm is like tailored towards that.
44:06You click on one post of Cyrus Allen and then all of a sudden you get fed 10 or 15 more.
44:12Yeah. And five years ago, that wasn't the case on, on social media, right?
44:17It wasn't algorithmic in that sense. It was kind of more like a timeline of news.
44:21Yeah. So anyways, I do think there's something to that, but to the specific, I think people are probably more interested in the specific players.
44:29I actually have been leaning in a little bit on the Cyrus Allen and Jacoby lane to the extent that I think
44:35they are like draftable in, in the 18th round.
44:38Cause I do think it, it matters in the context of a, those are both offenses that have the ceiling to be,
44:44you know, top five in the NFL and scoring if things, things go right.
44:48And both those teams do have pretty wide open wide receiver rooms, you know, particularly in wide receiver, you know, two, two or three on those teams.
44:56So I have been willing to click those guys a little bit, but again, it's like, yeah, 17th, 18th, 20th round picks
45:03or whatever, not chasing them huge up the board.
45:05Yeah. Which every once in a while you get like that, like 13th round Cyrus Allen and you're like, okay, like could this happen?
45:12Could this work out? Maybe, but I'm not, I'm, I'm certainly not going to pay that kind of price for it.
45:19Now that we're in August, another question I want to ask is, you know, obviously you've been drafting for a long time
45:25now this summer, you know, I have two, are you approaching things differently in your August drafts than you were, let's say in like May and June?
45:33Yeah. I think tying into the, the, the first point, I think now that we know a little bit better now about
45:39what later round rookies and young players are looking good in the later rounds, I'm skewing a little bit more towards drafting
45:46those players as opposed to sort of like the boring veteran types.
45:49Like I think I'm taking, I don't know who's an example.
45:53Calvin, Calvin Ridley is maybe a guy who I was drafting more of in May just because I'm trying to avoid zeros with my last couple of picks.
46:01I know he has a contract. He's going to be on the team.
46:05Whereas some of these guys, Jacoby lane, whoever, you know, you might be taking total zeros there.
46:10So it's a little bit more of like taking some of the funner rookies instead of the boring veterans.
46:15And then I think like structurally I'm a little bit gearing more towards late round running back as I think a couple
46:22of the late round running back targets have become more clear to me.
46:25For me personally, that's like Marshawn Lloyd and Jaden blue.
46:28Yeah. You know, for a while it was like completely barren at running back past like pick, you know, I like there.
46:35So that means maybe a little bit more wide receivers, tight ends in the early rounds instead of running backs and a couple more running backs picked late.
46:43Yeah. I love that. I love that notion. And I felt the same way where it's like, you know, you don't know
46:49back in June, not only like Marshawn Lloyd's a great example, not only like, is he going to be healthy, but like,
46:56where's he sort of sit within the depth chart?
46:59And, you know, it seems like everything's gone in a really favorable way for him.
47:03So you just have more comfortability and confidence that he's the right kind of click to make.
47:08And then obviously there's, you know, stuff going on with Josh Jacobs that may or may not come to fruition, but regardless
47:14of that, you know, it does make sense and it allows you to be really flexible with, with your roster construction as well.
47:21One question I really want to ask is you're seeing some players that have seen a pretty big jump and change in
47:28ADP Malik neighbors being one where he was like a fourth rounder for a while.
47:32And now you're seeing him in like the late second, pretty frequently Stefan digs, obviously a huge, huge gain given that he signed in Washington.
47:39My question for you, cause I'm, I know that there's a lot of people out there who, you know, didn't get a
47:46lot of digs or didn't get a lot of neighbors.
47:49I wish I got more neighbors personally. So I want to hear the answer to this just from, from that perspective, but how do you handle things now?
47:57And you could talk about this in the opposite direction as well, you know, because like guys get hurt.
48:03Kenyon Sadiq is a good example where I thought he was a great click.
48:07I was clicking a lot of them on DK and then all of a sudden it's like, Oh, the sports hernia injury
48:13is actually going to continue and not stop. And so maybe he'll be, he'll be ready in week one, but obviously his ADP is tumbling.
48:20So with all this shifting in ADP, if you missed out at the more favorable ADP, are you doubling down?
48:26Are you saying, Oh, I got enough neighbors. I'm done drafting neighbors.
48:30How do you handle that in total? Yeah, that's, it's a very good question.
48:34I think like before getting into the specifics of maybe those situations, I am someone where I don't worry too much about
48:40like, Oh, I didn't get neighbors at the best possible price at pick 45.
48:45Therefore I'm not going to chase them up to pick 20.
48:48Yeah. Just because, cause I think there's some people that are like, Oh, you'll, if you take neighbors at pick 20 and
48:54say you advance that team to the finals, you're competing against teams that got neighbors at pick 45 and you have a disadvantage.
49:01Therefore you should just like fade neighbors and hope that like, he is not the guy you need.
49:06Right. I pretty strongly like disagree with, with that notion.
49:09I think generally you should just kind of like update your rankings based on no information, new information.
49:14If that player like at its new price is still a good pick, like based on your updated rankings, I'm not worried
49:21about like where the best price was that you could have gotten a month ago.
49:25Sure. There's like, I bet you could come up with some hypothetical scenario where like, say, I don't know, Kyron Williams tears
49:32his ACL and Blake Corum goes to the one, two turn.
49:35Then I think that's like a level of change where like, you might want to consider that dynamic, right?
49:41Like, but I think, I think these are all the digs neighbors examples.
49:44It's not extreme enough where I don't think that matters too much.
49:48So for me, like those, those specific situations, I think both those guys kind of had deserved skyrocketing up the boards.
49:54I think the neighbors information on, on his health, I think really does matter a lot.
49:59So for those two guys specifically, I really have been chasing them up.
50:03And then, yeah, dig, I feel like the digs thing is just like a lesson that I somehow failed to learn every off season.
50:10Is that like when these veteran guys sign, they just like inevitably go up.
50:14Yeah. So I think I missed that one a little bit.
50:17I wasn't taking a lot of digs that said though, it's like he could have signed with, I don't know.
50:23He could have signed with a much worse landing spot.
50:26Yeah. He found the perfect spot. Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
50:28Yeah. So it was a little bit of bad luck there.
50:32Yeah. I've kind of like gotten to the point where it's almost like the meme of like, you think about something really
50:38basic and then, you know, you, there's like a nerd, you know, the nerd part where they're like thinking about CLV and
50:45they're, you know, like, and then at the very end, you know, you're the expert and you just think about it, you
50:51know, and just getting the right guy once again.
50:54Right. And like, I feel that way almost with like a neighbors or, you know, like these two examples in particular, it's
51:00like, I think there are too many iterations to a possible lineup to get so worked up about what that CLV could
51:07look like in week 17, you know, like even though, yes, like I think anyone sitting here right now probably wishes they
51:13had 25% neighbors in the fourth round. Right. Just, just given like what ended up happening, I'm sure you'd feel a lot better.
51:20Maybe not 25%, but at least like 20% neighbors at that fourth round price tag.
51:24But even if you're drafting them in round two, I don't think it's a given because all there's so many iterations as
51:31to what could go down in round three and like the guys in round three and four.
51:36One of the things that I talked about on the show last week, cause like I was mostly fading neighbors crossing my
51:42fingers that his ADP would actually get lower if he was placed on pup.
51:46And then that obviously didn't happen. And so I had to react quickly.
51:50Now I think just given the way that like the landscape is and what I've experienced, at least there is a window
51:56usually before things really get out at like things really get like before a player rises to where he should go, you know?
52:03So like I had a week of, of just trying to get a middle third round into late third round neighbors.
52:09And then like, you know, it turned into like two, three turn neighbors and stuff.
52:14And I got to a point where like, I'm properly weighted with neighbors because I was able to react in that way.
52:20And the way that I kind of framed it.
52:23And I, you know, I said this last week, maybe it's a little cope, but like round three and round four to me is really flat in general.
52:31And so like, I don't even feel like the opportunity cost was like so, so significant that like, Oh, it's going to ruin my teams.
52:38If I'm drafting neighbors in round three, it's going to be an interesting question.
52:43I think if you get to like the one, two turn with neighbors and you're like now, you know, these guys that
52:49are like legitimate league winning type running backs and stuff that you're drafting them over.
52:53Or like even like the Drake London line, I think is a really interesting one with, with neighbors just because London has
53:00just as much upside standalone as neighbors does right without the injury concerns.
53:04So like, that's, that's probably the question for me, but again, I don't know.
53:08I'm trying to not like care so, so much about CLV in the end, you know, like not, not get so worked
53:14up about it because if it's the dude like Kenyan Sadiq, I have a lot of Kenyan Sadiq and now he's cheaper.
53:21I'm still drafting cheaper Sadiq because I just think he's a good value in general.
53:25I think that's the right approach. Like you said, the, like, if you try to do as a, I don't know why
53:32you try to do this, but as a hypothetical exercise, like draft a team from the one 12 and then on your
53:38next draft, try to draft the same exact team from the one 12, you're going to, unless you're reaching on every player that right.
53:45Like you're not going to be able to do it.
53:48There's just like so much randomness and how the draft shake out.
53:52There's so much randomness, you know, in the playoff structure of, of these tournaments where you can be paired against stronger or weaker teams in the playoff pools.
54:00Like there's just so much out there. Whereas like, if this was a, you know, we're talking here about sort of generally
54:06playoff best ball, like the structure of the best ball millionaire.
54:09If you're playing like a season long contest where it's like most total points throughout the whole season, that's where maybe the
54:16CLV thing like starts to matter more. But yeah, in these tournament pod structure tournaments, I think it just, it's not my, my primary concern at all.
54:24Yeah. It's a one week thing where like, it doesn't, you know, like neighbors could have a bad week or, you know,
54:30like that, that person that you're that player that you would be taking neighbors over could Drake London.
54:36If you're taking him over Drake London, he could blow up in week 17.
54:40And then all of a sudden, like you, you know, don't have the guy, but also does that mean that you are
54:46not frequently like pulling guys up in ADP to get a differentiated lineup?
54:50So like, if you're, you know, like Nico Collins has been end of round two, early round three, now that neighbors gets pushed up sometimes.
54:57So you'll see him fall at times, but like, are you ever pulling Nico to the other side of the board just to differentiate your lineup?
55:05Or are you more of the mindset of what you just said, where it's like, yeah, these lineups are differentiated enough because
55:11we're, we're drafting, you know, 20 rounds on draft Kings.
55:14And clearly there's going to be very, very many iterations of, of what we could possibly do with this lineup.
55:20Yeah. I am not really someone who focuses a lot on, you know, like flipping the draft board by pulling a player up.
55:27Um, I do think about like, I don't know the one spot where I've like thought about it a little bit this year is like the 12 spot.
55:35Um, so the one, the one, two turn, I guess in the first round, we're like, I don't want the same combination
55:42of two running backs every single time. Like, I don't want all my teams to be genti Barkley or whatever.
55:47So I have been like randomizing that a little bit, but yeah, I don't, as opposed to pulling someone up in the
55:54first couple rounds, I generally have a rule where like if a player in the first couple of rounds just falls four
56:00or five, six, seven picks past ADP, unless it's a guy I like intentionally have a huge fade on.
56:06Yeah. Um, I just like take that value every time.
56:09And I think that kind of achieves the same effect in a lot of ways without like reaching for a player.
56:15So that that's kind of my approach to that.
56:18Yeah. I couldn't agree more. That's, that's how I've approached things as well.
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57:15That's LifeLock.com code football. Again, LifeLock.com code football. One of the questions that I love asking guests this year because it just
57:22reveals a lot and it gets into like a lot of just how you're approaching the position and game theory and roster construction.
57:28Are you drafting Josh Allen? Is he overrated, underrated, or properly rated right now, do you think, on DraftKings?
57:34Yeah. I like to be a contrarian in the fantasy best ball space sometimes.
57:38I know everyone is saying Josh Allen is overrated, but in the case of the DraftKings ADP, I do actually agree with the, I guess, expert consensus.
57:46I do think he's a bit overdrafted at pick 28.
57:49It is a pretty massive gap between where he goes and where the next tier of elite quarterbacks go.
57:55Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, you know, other guys that give you the dual threat ability, but are going 30, I think in Daniel's case, 40 plus picks later.
58:03So I do think with Allen, that's a bit too much to give up.
58:07If I was building, like, I do think it's an interesting debate though, because like year over year, Allen kind of does,
58:13if you do some kind of analysis of like points above replacement, you know, relative to position and then rank Allen versus
58:20other players, he does kind of like pay off this price tag most years.
58:24So from that standpoint, I can't say it's like a terrible pick.
58:27I think there's like a lot of like safety in what you get from Allen and best ball where like year over year, he just crushes every year.
58:36But I do think I just like the two by twos of like taking those slightly later elite quarterbacks, you know, recognizing
58:42they have slightly lower odds than Allen of finishing QB one.
58:45But I think that gap from them to Allen doesn't really reflect like the difference in their odds there.
58:51So on DraftKings, I've been avoiding him with the caveat of what I said earlier, like when guys fall five, six, seven
58:57picks, fast ADP, I just take them. So I'm not taking zero Allen.
59:01Yeah. Yeah. I'm with you. I'm with you. And then my other question is similar.
59:06I mean, it's a onesie position, but what about Brock Bowers, who I think a lot of people would view in a
59:12similar way as Allen being like by far the best at that onesie position.
59:16Are you being aggressive with Bowers this year? Yeah, I'm in on Bowers at his DraftKings price tag mid second round pick.
59:23I think last year you can largely chalk up a lot of his underperformance to injury.
59:27I feel like Kirk Cousins and Mendoza, while they're not anyone's like dream quarterback room, it adds like a base level of
59:34competency here to the offense and the wide receivers remain like, I mean, we're talking about Malik Benson hype in trading camp.
59:40That's what we're talking about from the wide receiver room here.
59:43It's really, really ugly. So I think the target share ceiling on Bowers justifies his price.
59:48I'm pretty in on him. Yeah. Wide receiver this year, to me, I certainly have my stands.
59:53Don't get me wrong, but I also look at like the top 30 at the position.
59:58And I think that that's generally the right, like 30 guys that should be drafted in that range.
60:03So I guess my question to you is like, do you have any fades in the top 30 at wide receiver?
60:09And this could be because like for me, a fade for me is just a guy that like, you know, I'm just
60:16I'm still getting exposure to, you know, like maybe a 3% to 4% exposure to.
60:20It's just not the guy that I'm getting the, you know, 13, 14% exposure to.
60:24For me, I agree with you. I don't have a ton.
60:28The guy I'm fading the most in the top 30 wide receivers would be Rasheed Rice.
60:32And it's, it's a tricky one with Rasheed Rice, because I think if you do any kind of like projections to inform
60:39best ball, and I'm assuming this for you, I don't know this would be the case, but I assume that Rasheed Rice
60:45like projects pretty damn well whenever he's, he's healthy.
60:48He puts up pretty big stats. He's pretty good from a peripheral stats perspective.
60:52It's not like the chiefs added much to their wide receiver room this season.
60:56But I think for me in best ball, like a lot of what I'm trying to avoid is like negative tail outcomes in the first handful of rounds.
61:04And I think Rice just stands out to me like in a weird way.
61:08He kind of reminds me of like a dead zone running back in that you're, you're kind of banking on projectable volume,
61:15but you're, you're kind of relying on like the chiefs to run the office offense a certain way.
61:20It's not like Rasheed Rice is like other, other top 15, you know, wide receivers by, by ADP.
61:26They're all like studs. If they hit the open market, they're, they're getting massive contracts.
61:30Like their team has a ton invest in them.
61:33Rasheed Rice is like, it is much more of like the PPR scam type where like, yeah, I'm not really sure he
61:39makes the chiefs offense that much better. And like, if they decided to go away from using him at the focal point,
61:45I think he could lose a lot of value.
61:48So, and there's also like, I don't know, there's a bit of like an idiot tax thing with Rice.
61:54That's like impossible to model, but you have to, I think, consider with how his off season has gone.
61:59So yeah, he's, he's the answer for me there.
62:02That's, that's a really good one to call out because, and I feel like I haven't even talked about him on, on
62:08many shows this off season in general. Cause I'm not really like keen on like being high on Rasheed Rice this year.
62:15It just doesn't seem like, cause it, cause I agree with you where like, I don't think he's that special of a talent.
62:22I think that by default, he's been getting a lot of work in the way that that offense has flowed, but there's
62:28a chance this year that like this offense just looks a lot different, you know, with, with the Kenneth Walker signing with,
62:34with my homes coming off the ACL and obviously Cyrus Allen, the God coming out of the draft.
62:40No, in all seriousness though, like I, I think that's a good call out to make because you're quite literally having to
62:46take him right now over a Nico Collins oftentimes, or you know, like now neighbors is there even like a Pickens or Devante Smith.
62:53Like you can make the argument that they're, I mean, I would make the argument certainly that they're better real life players.
63:00It's just that they're not in this like environment where they just get fed out of the slot.
63:05And what if that just looks a little bit different?
63:08It is scary. It's, it's at least fragile. And to maybe emphasize that point, like how many in the history of fantasy
63:14football, how many 26 year old wide receivers, you know, being drafted in the top two rounds of fantasy drafts have reporting
63:21that their team isn't like interested in extending them long-term like that, like that's, that's the type of fragility.
63:26Like it's obviously that doesn't mean everything. Don't base your draft pick on that, but it's a weird data point with rice.
63:33And kind of undermines his, his stability that you mostly like.
63:36That's why, you know, like fantasy wide receivers are generally attractive in best balls.
63:40Like to some degree, they're like pretty stable, like can hit the fan, but their talent will shine through.
63:46And rice is just like a little bit different from that standpoint.
63:49Yeah. Yeah. No, I, it's a, it's a really good call out.
63:53Another question I want to ask, I feel like I've been drafting this year and not really thinking about teams that I
63:59am just so in on from, from the perspective of like, just loving that offense and think that they're going to beat the market.
64:06It's more so like being reactive to what the room is giving me and then stacking based on that.
64:12Right. If I get a falling value of Zay flowers or something, and then I get Lamar in the fifth and it's
64:18like, Oh, all of a sudden I have a Baltimore stack or what have you.
64:23Now, obviously that leads to then being overweight or underweight on certain offenses that I'm stacking.
64:27But I guess my question to you is like, as you're drafting, are you kind of going about it the same way?
64:34Or are there teams out there that you think are just like undervalued in general or, or a team that might be
64:40lower key that, that might surprise people. To like the macro point, I like, I'm kind of with you where I let
64:47the skill position, you know, tail wag the quarterback dog in best ball.
64:51We're like, I usually am not like entering a draft being like, Oh, I'd want this to be a, you know, Baker Mayfield team.
64:58So therefore I'm going to draft, you know, a Buka and then go from there.
65:02Yeah. Yeah. I'm not, I don't think I'm going out of my way.
65:06That said, like I do, I think I have an answer to the question of, of what team I'm a little bit
65:12higher on, which would be the Packers. Um, I'm pretty, pretty in on throw the Jacobs thing aside.
65:18I think particularly their, their past catchers and love right now.
65:21I just really like how in years past, you know, they always had this massive rotation.
65:26Even like people talk about Dontavian Wicks and Romeo Dobbs, uh, Malik Heath ran 30% of routes last year.
65:31Like you gotta get the Malik Heath role in there, uh, for, for some reason.
65:36Uh, and those guys are, Dobbs is gone. Wicks is gone.
65:39Heath is gone. It's, it really should just be Watson Reed and golden really consolidating the routes.
65:44No Packers wide receiver last year had more than a 77% route participation that put Romeo Dobbs at 53rd in the league and route participation rate.
65:51So anyways, I think that that could just really consolidate to the top guys.
65:56I think their O line, uh, ranked by Brandon Thorne as, as 29th in the league this year, that's a bit concerning,
66:02but I think could push them to the pass even more if they're sort of unable to establish the ground game with
66:08Jacobs as they have done the past couple of years.
66:11And, you know, we'll see with love. Like he's always been one of those guys that's like very high in EPA per play.
66:18Like, can he scale that efficiency to a larger sample size from a passing standpoint?
66:23I think we'll find out this year, but I just like how concentrated it could be.
66:27And I think that the concentration is not fully reflected in these wide receivers prices just because of how it's been in prior years.
66:34Yeah. I love, I love that call. Uh, LaFleur's offenses in green Bay have never ranked in the bottom half of the league and touchdowns per game either.
66:42I mean, it's a very safe bet that that offense is just going to be good.
66:47And like you said, if they don't rotate their wide receivers in such an infuriating way as they've done in the past,
66:54then all of a sudden you can see all of them pay off.
66:57I mean, and, and, you know, obviously like in the individual draft that you're drafting in, it's like, you know, you make
67:04a bet, you draft Jaden Reed, you make a bet on Jaden Reed.
67:08Maybe that means that you're not getting mad. Maybe you still get Matthew golden, whatever the case may be.
67:13But like, like there are certainly outs where like Matthew golden is just doesn't progress.
67:18And Jaden Reed takes on more of an outside role.
67:21So you can see how he would outplay ADP.
67:23Christian Watson was out of his mind when he came back last year.
67:27You could see how he would outplay ADP and then golden just goes kind of late.
67:32And so, you know, what if he does take that step forward?
67:35And so I like that call quite a bit.
67:38All right. Before I let you go, I need a, I need a bold take a bold prediction for this 2026 fantasy season.
67:45Yeah. So I was trying, trying to cook up something, you know, better than just, you know, wide receiver X will outperform ADP by one round this year.
67:53So I'll, I'll give this a run. I'll say Colson Loveland becomes the first tight end to eclipse 20 PPR points for
67:59game since Travis Kelsey back in 2020. Yeah. So I, yeah, I think why it's definitely bold.
68:04Um, if I can find that line of draftings, uh, not, I'm not doing it, but why it's not crazy.
68:10Let me give you a bit of the case for that in games where he ran 70% of the routes last year.
68:17So using that realizing it's an arbitrary cutoff, but saying, Hey games, he was kind of a full time starter.
68:23He averaged 18 and a half PPR points per game.
68:25So he was right up on that 20 point threshold in that small sample, uh, last year.
68:30And he hit over 21 points in four out of six of those weeks.
68:35I think just like zooming way out, like obviously I wouldn't take him over McBride.
68:39I wouldn't take him over Bowers. Those guys should go ahead.
68:42But if you think about like the true ceiling cases for those three guys, one of them is on the Las Vegas Raiders.
68:49One of them is on the Arizona Cardinals. If you're making a case for one of these three offenses being top five
68:55in the NFL and scoring, it almost has to be the bears over the Cardinals and Raiders.
69:00Like it's not even close, you know, again, talking about concentration of offenses, like we did with the Packers.
69:06I think this thing will be really mega concentrated on a dunes, a Loveland and, and burden in some order.
69:12Like their wide receiver three is going to be Zavian Thomas or Kalief Raymond.
69:16You know, there'll be a ton of snaps with Sam Rausch and Cole Komet on the field.
69:21I think you could see really high target rates for those top three guys.
69:25And, um, I just feel best about Loveland emerging out of the three.
69:29So thank you. Thank you has a real, real ceiling this year in fantasy.
69:33I like it. I've seen a lot of the takes too of just like, oh man, these guys are going so high in drafts.
69:40Like one of them isn't going to pay off at costs.
69:43And I'm kind of like, I mean, I think it's possible that all three can still be like, okay, realistically, because if
69:50they, if it is hyper targeted, like we think it can be not unlike what we've seen with like Detroit with Ben Johnson, right.
69:57Where it was hyper targeted to those three guys, same positions, et cetera, where you don't even have a running back that
70:03you're as worried about as, as you would be with the backfield in Detroit.
70:07Like it depends on what you're saying would be like, you know, like, are they all going to be league winners?
70:13No, that would, that would probably be impossible, but could they all pay off in their own way in best ball?
70:20I still think that it's, it, it could still be the case because of how hyper targeted those guys will be.
70:26I think the most likely outcome is like two of them will be, or, you know, we'll be like the guys like, don't get me wrong.
70:33But I still think that there's like a, still a case that all three can be okay and not totally tank your teams.
70:40You know, if you are getting exposure to all three.
70:43Yeah. A hundred percent. And also it's like, I get, it's a bit of a bet, a projection that Caleb Williams is
70:50going to take another leap in year three. He wasn't amazing last year, even though it was a huge improvement from year one to year two.
70:57But I really do think like to some degree in the NFL these days, it's like it's haves versus have nots in terms of offensive coaching.
71:05And like Ben Johnson is just so firmly in the camp of coaches I'm willing to bet on.
71:10So if you're going to make a projection on a year three leap for a quarterback, which you do need the leap
71:17for the quarterback, I think for this to happen with Loveland and Adunz and Burton, like I do feel okay about that
71:23bet because it's Ben Johnson and it's a quarterback who was, you know, considered one of the best five quarterback prospects of
71:29the last 15 years, something like that. Right. So it's, it's a better malign to make.
71:34Yeah, totally with you. All right, man, this was great.
71:37I really appreciate the time. Let everyone know where they can find you and what you're working on and such.
71:43Yeah, you can find me every week. I'm doing two, two shows, one on Pete Oversett's best ball breakfast stream, and then
71:49on legendary upside doing a weekly show with, with Pat Garain called that's fair.
71:54And then yeah, you can also follow me on, on X at Sherman underscore FFB.
71:58About like 10% of my tweets you should take seriously as a fair warning.
72:02So I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll caveat with that. You can find my, my more straightforward analysis on those prior, prior two streams.
72:09Great, great fall though. We were talking before we started, you know, after you had the big win last year and just
72:15the, the, the sarcasm that came through and so many of the tweets, it was brilliant, brilliantly done.
72:20Great follow on Twitter. Appreciate the time, man. Like I said, check out late round.com late round draft guide.
72:26Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel and the podcast.
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