Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Fade Josh Allen?
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 23 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 10, 2026
Published
Wed, June 10, 2026
31
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock BowersSaquon BarkleyTrey McBrideA.J. BrownAlvin KamaraBrandon AiyukChris RodriguezDalton KincaidDalvin CookDavid MontgomeryDerrick HenryDrake MayeGreg DulcichJack Bech
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection0:18
A.J. Brown's ADP has increased to pick 19, making him one of the top risers, likely due to his stability compared to other players with off-field issues.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
PositiveRole0:01
Alvin Kamara's situation is interesting as he is in shape and may not retire, but he remains a potential trade candidate.
Insight pageBrandon Aiyuk
PositiveSleeper0:55
Brandon Ayuk remains a solid draft option despite some ambiguity around his role, as he has the potential for big plays.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection0:28
Brock Bowers is expected to have a significant impact this season, making him a strong target in drafts.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout0:44
Brock Bowers is positioned to excel in a well-designed passing game that utilizes play action, making him a perfect fit for the offensive scheme.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
NegativeInjury0:09
Chris Rodriguez is dealing with a foot issue and is not expected to practice until training camp, which is negatively impacting his ADP.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveProjection0:42
Dalton Kincaid's efficiency is noteworthy, but if he runs more routes, his yards per outrun may decrease, which is a common expectation for players with high efficiency.
Insight pageDalvin Cook
NegativeValue1:15
The speaker is not as excited about Dalvin Cook compared to other running backs, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm for his draft value.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveRole1:33
David Montgomery is compared to Javante Williams, indicating that both players are viewed similarly in terms of their volume-based roles.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
NegativeBust0:59
Derrick Henry is considered a fragile option, which raises concerns about his viability as a draft pick this year.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveBreakout2:35
The speaker is a huge fan of Drake May and believes he has significant upside, especially with new offensive weapons.
Insight pageGreg Dulcich
PositiveRole0:12
Greg Dolcich has received positive reports, suggesting he could be a key target in the offense.
Insight pageJack Bech
PositiveDepth Chart0:44
Jack Besh is emerging as a strong option in the receiving game, potentially benefiting from the lack of competition among the team's wide receivers.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveValue6:17
Jalen Hurts is viewed as a great value pick, especially given his ability to score touchdowns and his current ADP.
Insight pageJalen Nailor
PositiveDepth Chart0:44
Jalen Naylor is mentioned as a player to consider, but the discussion favors Jack Besh due to his potential impact on the field.
Insight pageJames Cook
NegativeBust0:59
James Cook is being faded in drafts due to concerns about his overall profile and the desire to prioritize other running backs.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveValue0:59
Javante Williams is a player being drafted, but there are mixed feelings about his potential this season.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeValue6:07
The speaker is aggressively fading Josh Allen due to his high ADP, suggesting that the market overvalues him compared to other quarterbacks.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue6:59
Kyler Murray is mentioned as a risky pick due to his past performance but still holds potential as a rushing quarterback.
Insight pageMike Washington Jr.
PositiveDepth Chart0:14
Mike Washington Jr. has dropped in ADP, but his athletic profile remains intriguing despite concerns about his production.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveValue7:11
Patrick Mahomes is noted for his strong recovery and potential to return to form, making him a worthwhile pick at his current ADP.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveDepth Chart0:41
Quentin Johnston is expected to be the number two receiver on the depth chart, but his performance has not been undeniable.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveValue0:59
Saquon Barkley is viewed favorably compared to other running backs, indicating a strong preference for him in drafts.
Insight pagePositiveValue1:04
The speaker expresses a strong preference for Saquon Barkley over Dalvin Cook, indicating a favorable view of Barkley's potential this season.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue0:13
Stefan Diggs is currently being drafted in the 12th or 13th round, but his ADP is likely to rise significantly if he signs with a contender, making him a target for value.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveValue0:28
Travis Etienne's ADP remains stable, and while there is buzz around the Saints, he hasn't dropped significantly in drafts.
Insight pageTrayvon Henderson
NegativeValue2:23
The speaker expresses concern about the current ADP of Travion Henderson, indicating he is not drafting him at his current price.
Insight pageTre Harris
PositiveSleeper0:46
Trey Harris is generating positive buzz and is considered a great late-round pick due to his potential to step forward.
Insight pageTre Tucker
PositiveRole0:44
Trey Tucker is being highlighted as the number one wide receiver in his team, showing promise as he is being moved around the formation.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveProjection0:03
Trey McBride is facing some analysts' skepticism, but he may experience touchdown regression this season.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout0:40
Trey McBride is facing some skepticism from analysts, but there is potential for touchdown regression given his high end zone target numbers last year.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is Tab Ramos from Inside American Soccer, and this summer Topgolf is turning into the ultimate soccer destination.
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0:57Fidelity Brokerage Services, member NYSE SIPC. JJ, have you had any serious conversations with your kids of late?
1:03Yeah, you know, my daughter is getting to the age where there's, you know, some friend stuff she's got to deal with
1:09as we all did in elementary school and, you know, sitting down talking to her about that.
1:14How about you? Yeah, last week was one of those situations where I had to sit my son down and deliver some really difficult news.
1:22They were learning about the solar system in TK and I had to regretfully inform him that Pluto is no longer a planet.
1:29I'm JJ and over the last couple of years, I've been doing everything I can to be a best ball bro.
1:35And last season, things finally fell into place. I got 40th in the DraftKings Millie contest, taking home $20,000.
1:41Maybe I became a best ball bro, but I'm still looking to learn more about this game.
1:46And I still want others to come on this ride with me.
1:50So even if you consider me a best ball bro, this could be your year.
1:54This could be the year that you officially become a best ball bro.
1:58This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball, and we've got a can't
2:05miss offer on their biggest best ball contest ever.
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2:30The crown is yours. Welcome into another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro.
2:34I'm JJ Zacharysen. And joined, as always, by Rich Ryan.
2:37Rich, the Knicks are down 2-1, but how you feeling?
2:40Or sorry, up 2-1. Sorry. But it feels like it.
2:43It feels like it. As a lifelong Knicks fan, as a lifelong Knicks fan who experienced a Knicks victory in New York
2:50City last weekend, look, it was an honest mistake there.
2:53Vibes were off last night at the stadium. Game seemed like it was out of control, and this is one of those
3:00where game four now is if you go up 2-0 and then you lose two at home, like, the vibes are all
3:06the way in the dumpster, so we're hanging on tight.
3:09We're used to being faced with the worst situations possible as New York sports fans, the non-Yankee New York sports fans amongst us.
3:16So we're prepared for the worst, unfortunately. Yeah. I mean, it would be crazy.
3:20But, I mean, they kept it close. It wasn't like a blowout last night, you know?
3:25That's the scary thing on both ends is that the first two games were close, and we edged it out.
3:31Every game has been close, so the neutral is very much enjoying this final so far.
3:36Yes. But look, this is not a basketball podcast.
3:39This is a football podcast. I'm back for my trip with the guys over the weekend in New York City.
3:45We went to basically every bureau. We were all over the map on that trip.
3:49I was just telling Rich about it before we started recording.
3:53But it's good to be back. It's good to not have to take the subway.
3:57It's good to be able to, you know, relax a little bit, lay out in my suburban home, and, you know, not
4:04have to deal with the chaos of the millions and millions of people that are around that city.
4:09Shout out to New York City, though. I had a great time.
4:13Let's talk about best ball. Let's talk about fantasy football.
4:16I fortunately had all my slows done before my trip.
4:19I had like 60 slows going at the time.
4:22Now I'm back in it doing some slows, hopping in some millies.
4:25We're going to be doing some live streams on the YouTube channel starting this week and all summer long.
4:31But I do want to talk about some watch outs.
4:34You know, like this intro part, we have a guest on today's show.
4:38If you guys are new to becoming a best ball bro, we do a little bit of an intro.
4:44We just kind of talk about what we're seeing within the best ball landscape at the moment.
4:49And I came up with four things that I want to talk about as like call outs, watch outs of what I'm seeing at the moment.
4:57And I'm curious if others agree or disagree. But the first one I want to say, I was thinking about this last
5:03night because I have not drafted a ton of zero RB teams so far this year.
5:08Like a ton, you know, like at least compared to what we were doing a couple of years ago.
5:14Right. As I was drafting a Millie team yesterday, I took Jamar Chase 103.
5:18And then I'm like, oh, maybe this will be a zero RB team.
5:22And then Derek Henry just was there for me in the second round.
5:26So I got Derek Henry. But one thing I was thinking of is that when you kind of set and you go
5:33towards a zero RB build, let's say that you get, you know, let's say Drake London falls in the second after you
5:39get Jackson Smith and Jigba or something. And then you get Drake London and then Nico Collins falls in the third.
5:46And then, you know, you're in that pocket of really good wide receivers in the fourth.
5:51And you want to get another wide receiver in that case.
5:54One thing that I think is really important is to make sure you get like a Lamar Jackson type quarterback.
6:00And the reason I say that is because if you're going wide receiver heavy, you obviously are going to need to get probably seven running max or so.
6:08If you do not get the running back position in the first five rounds or four rounds, you know, you're going to
6:15probably want to get seven running max in your team.
6:18And you're going to be looking at that like round eight to round 10 into 11 range for some of those.
6:24But, you know, the Kenny Gainwells of the world.
6:27And if you're doing that and if you're really pinpoint, you need the flexibility to not feel forced to go quarterback because
6:34that is the quarterback green zone in best ball right now.
6:37You know, like I think that things are going to look a lot different in season long.
6:42And honestly, the way this is kind of a tangent, but the way that people are talking about season like like fantasy
6:49football for 2026 feels a little bit off right now because everyone's like, oh, running backs are being drafted so much earlier this year than last year.
6:57But if you actually look at season long ADP year over year, you know, even looking back, you know, over the last
7:0410 years and just seeing the trends, it's not that different.
7:07Like it's really not that substantially different. I would argue even on draft kings.
7:11I haven't really laid it out, but I don't think it's like so drastically different that all of a sudden, you know,
7:18everyone is going with early round running back approach and early round running back approach.
7:22I think we started to see it a little bit last year because 2024 was a pretty good year for that the
7:29position in the way that that things kind of came together and then people were reacting to it last year.
7:35And then last year, the running back position was also good.
7:38And so people are going to continue doing that.
7:41There's a lot of reasons for that. But regardless, if you're not getting those running backs early, I do think it's pretty
7:48vital to get a quarterback of some sort early because you're going to get stuck in that run of quarterbacks where you're
7:54going to wish you had one because the position just dries up so fast and you're going to be looking at running backs in that range.
8:02Yeah, the running backs that you're talking about there with Mononghi, Blake Corum, Kenny Gainwell, Brooks and Dobbins in that area are
8:09also nine quarterbacks from the eight, nine turn down.
8:12So yeah, if you're planning your stacks or if you haven't selected a quarterback already and you're also trying to balance that
8:18zero RB approach, you're going to have a hard time fulfilling everything and being satisfied with your roster.
8:24That's why I think it's like that. That's another piece of zero RB that I think is a little bit more difficult this year.
8:31That's not necessarily being talked about. It's just like the way the board falls doesn't necessarily allow you to do that very
8:38confidently just because of quarterback in particular, like literally, because if the later round quarterbacks like we've been talking about for the
8:44last year and a half, if they keep getting pushed up, then obviously, you know, those players are like it dries up a lot, a lot faster.
8:52And if you are drafting running backs in that range and that can that can definitely screw you.
8:58I have a second thing I want to bring up.
9:01I have four things here, kind of three. We'll call it three and a half.
9:05But number two, we're seeing these like ambiguous injuries going on right now.
9:09Let's just use Chris Rodriguez as the example where he has his foot issue that's been happening.
9:14And now there's reports that he's not going to be practicing or like doing work on his foot until training camp or
9:21they're like expecting him back training camp time frame.
9:24The effect I've noticed anecdotally is that I don't think that drafters always look at that beyond that one player.
9:30So like, of course, Chris Rodriguez's ADP is likely dropping as a result of all of this.
9:35But the interesting thing is that, yes, you'll see maybe a little bit of Bashaw Tootin, but like I haven't seen an
9:42instant at all where LaQuinn Allen is seeing a dramatic increase in ADP.
9:45Now, a lot of people sit there and say that LaQuinn Allen is not the same kind of running back as Chris
9:52Rodriguez is, which I would completely agree. They play two completely different roles on that team.
9:57However, however, it's different in best ball than in season long.
10:00I think this is where one of those differences lies where in best ball you do kind of just want, especially draft games where it's full PPR.
10:08I draft LaQuinn Allen because I think that he can have some usable weeks here and there as a pass catcher in a full PPR format.
10:16You know, it's the same argument that we had left like Justice Hill historically.
10:20Like you can even make the argument for Justice Hill this year.
10:24But with LaQuinn Allen, if we were playing season long and Chris Rodriguez were to get hurt, the waiver wire slash recommendation
10:31stuff would be like, I mean, not that Bashaw Tootin would be on the waiver wire.
10:36But like analysts would be sitting there saying, hey, Bashaw Tootin RB1 season, you know, all the they'd meme it up and whatever.
10:43And I'd be all for it because I'm a Bashaw Tootin guy.
10:46But the thing that we wouldn't really care about that much is probably LaQuinn Allen in that case in the season long
10:53league, because LaQuinn Allen would be playing a very similar role that he would be playing otherwise, which is that like pass
10:59catcher or, you know, we're projecting here. But like that pass catcher role, what have you.
11:04There would be, though, a slight uptick in his overall volume in that offense if Chris Rodriguez were to be out because
11:11they don't really have an RB3 to rely on at this moment.
11:15You know, they would maybe bring someone up from the practice squad or maybe they'd sign someone if it was long term, whatever the case may be.
11:23But LaQuinn Allen would probably see like a 10% uptick, like 10 percentage point uptick in early down work, let's say, or, you know, rush share.
11:31And so if that's the case, we don't care about that in season long because he goes from someone who's really a
11:37volatile player that we don't know when that's going to hit to all of a sudden being maybe a little bit less volatile, but still pretty volatile.
11:45Right. But in best ball, that that could give you a little bit more of an edge because you're not having to predict that.
11:53Right. The reason we wouldn't want to go after a LaQuinn Allen in that in season long is because we're not going
11:59to predict when that big game happens. But in best ball, we don't have to worry about that.
12:05So my overall stance here and like the reason I'm bringing this up is that if there is an ambiguous injury going
12:11on and there hasn't been that much of like a chain reaction to that injury with the other players in that backfield
12:18or in that wide receiver room, whatever the case may be.
12:21Backfield is a lot easier to make that tie because, you know, they're just given work as opposed to wide receivers, tight
12:28ends having to get open and get a target, et cetera, et cetera.
12:32I think that's an opportunity to get CLV, even if it's not even CLV, even if it's just value in general that
12:38you get because maybe his ADP doesn't rise or change.
12:42But eventually, you know, if Chris Rodriguez is like confirmed out through August or something, LaQuinn Allen would probably have like a
12:4817th round ADP or something like he would be higher than a last round, sometimes not even drafted type pick.
12:54Yeah, he hasn't budged at all, whereas Chris Rodriguez has dropped half around down five spots.
12:59And you're right. The difference with best ball is we get the luxury of enjoying smoothed out projectable volume over the season
13:06as opposed to hoping this is the week in season long that LaQuinn Allen gets action.
13:10Yeah. And then the last the last thing I want to point out, and this kind of goes hand in hand, but
13:17if there are free agents out there who have a backbone of being productive and good and like not, you know, not
13:24on the tail end of their career or anything like that.
13:27We had Keenan Allen last year. We saw his ADP rise by a few rounds after he signed with the Chargers, which
13:34a lot of people didn't even think was a good landing spot for him.
13:38You know, like right now we're staring at Stefan Diggs and he is a firm, firm double digit round pick.
13:44I'm talking like 12th, 13th round type player on DraftKings.
13:47And if he signs almost anywhere, it's the odds of him signing for like a semi contender are pretty high, probably, you
13:54know, like a Washington or a Kansas City or something like that.
13:57And if that's the case, his ADP is going to rise by like two rounds, at least more than likely similar to what we saw with Keenan Allen.
14:06And then analysts talk themselves into that player more and more because they realized there was a reason that that team went out and got that player.
14:14And so you can get that. That's that's a pure CLV play like you can right now with Stefan Diggs.
14:20I do believe firmly and it's not going to work out 100 percent of the time, but I do believe firmly that
14:27Stefan Diggs is someone that people should be targeting and drafting more frequently than they probably are just because we're going to see that uptick.
14:34Now, if this were August and he wasn't on a team or we didn't, it's not as big of a deal.
14:40I think it's a bigger deal right now in a Millie contest where, you know, we're drafting in May and June and
14:47the same contest is still opened in August where people are going to be drafting.
14:52And by the time August it's Stefan Diggs could be a ninth round pick.
14:56That's a really good distinction, right? This isn't one of those short contests that is going to fill quickly.
15:02The difference is we're looking to target these longer contests with longer draft windows because you're right.
15:07There isn't a single player with an F.A. tag on them in DraftKings that is going before Stefan Diggs in the 12th round.
15:14And you've got Tyreek Hill dropping half a round.
15:16Yeah, there's just value to be had here. You could even argue Brandon Ayuk right now, which is crazy.
15:22But I I think Ayuk is a little bit different for obvious reasons.
15:26So, you know, you don't have to go ham if you don't really like putting that into your portfolio.
15:32I personally don't mind doing that. Like I've been I've been drafting Ayuk because, you know, like even if he's not 100% there for part.
15:39I don't know. I just I think that there's you're just playing expected value and probability at that point.
15:45Like like what are the odds that he does not play at all this year?
15:50Maybe you feel that it's like 80%. I think it's more 50-50 at worst, you know, that that he isn't playing this
15:56year just because, you know, like he's still talented.
15:59And I saw a pretty good take about this with Ayuk and the 49ers.
16:03Like if there were real problems with his game, the 49ers would have just released him.
16:08You know, they would have like it would be a done deal at this point.
16:13Like he wouldn't be, you know, being being hung on by the 49ers to get some sort of trade value.
16:19You know, I don't know. There's there's a lot to it.
16:22Don't hold me to that take. I just think that it's an interesting way of sort of thinking about it and, you know, analyzing that situation.
16:30But also this is the distinction that you just made about the difference between receivers and running backs where receivers earn their
16:36usage through talent for most of the part. Whereas running backs, the coach kind of decides who gets usage.
16:42And we're talking about some talented dudes, no matter what you think of of bigs, Tyreek and Ayuk.
16:48They're talented guys. So if they land in a spot, they're not going to be stuck with a coach's decision as to whether or not they get usage.
16:56They're going to be running routes and likely earning targets.
16:59Yeah, I mean, in this bucket, which is why I said three and a half.
17:04We've now learned officially through this A.J. Brown ordeal, but also we saw last year.
17:08I remember with Jordan Addison where we knew something was going to happen from a suspension standpoint.
17:13And yet, like I remember I wasn't drafting him until that suspension was handed out because I knew his ADP would fall.
17:20And it did like it fell by about a round after that happened.
17:24A.J. Brown, I will say I was not aggressive enough in getting him before the news to New England.
17:30Because I thought that where he was being drafted was a fair enough, reasonable enough ADP based on, you know, the age
17:36curve, the trajectory of his career, like what happened last year.
17:40All while recognizing that he really wasn't that bad last year.
17:43You know, it was probably overstated of him like being total dust.
17:46But I'm like, yeah, I mean, like there's some good players being drafted around him.
17:51I can understand why his ADP is where it's at.
17:54Assuming that everyone knows that he's going to New England.
17:57Well, no, that's this is also probably a segue into into the ADP stuff because A.J.
18:02Brown is is is seeing his his ADP increase.
18:05And it has seen that over the last week or two.
18:08Yeah. So we I like to take a snapshot of the week over week ADP risers and fallers.
18:13And A.J. Brown is one of the top seven risers up a half around now at pick 19.
18:19And that's early rounds, too, to be fair. And that was the point I was going to bring up, especially in the faller section.
18:26There's a lot of double digits here. Like some of these value changes are are very small right now.
18:32Right. There hasn't been massive news, massive injuries. There's not a lot of shifts.
18:36So to see that in the second round right up from the third round to the second, that is it is it's
18:43hard to overstate how large of a move that is.
18:46I think part of the A.J. Brown stuff, too, is obviously Rishi Rice, Malik neighbors, Josh Jacobs, like players that have had
18:52these like off the field type stuff going on slash injury stuff going on.
18:57And so naturally it's like, oh, this is A.J.
18:59Brown's actually more stable piece than those players are.
19:02So therefore, I'll draft him. I just can't get behind drafting him over Drake London, which I've seen multiple times.
19:08Like I'm just I'm not quite there. I'm not even lower than A.J.
19:12Brown versus like A.D.P. It's just I'm not going to be higher on A.J.
19:16Brown if that's if that's what being higher means, you know, than A.D.P.
19:20The three receivers that have moved more than A.J.
19:23Brown in the positive direction, they all kind of feel fit the same archetype.
19:27A.D. Mitchell, Trey Harris and Dontavian Wicks, guys who can stretch the field, guys who can get downfield.
19:32And the market seems to be latching on to them right now.
19:36Yeah, I've been drafting a ton of A.D. Mitchell all offseason.
19:39I was never look. I wasn't an A.D. Mitchell guy when he came out.
19:44I think that he's kind of even exceeded my expectations in a way, even though it sounds backwards because he was traded.
19:50And, you know, but he's been very good per route run.
19:54And I think there's a very real chance when you look at what the Jets have at wide receiver in particular, Garrett Wilson can play everywhere.
20:01But I think Garrett Wilson realistically could probably thrive most in like a zero on that in that offense.
20:07Right. Or in any offense. But he can play X like he's he's he's extremely talented.
20:12But Adonai Mitchell is an X receiver. Like that is what he like.
20:16That's where he should be playing. And Omar Cooper is very much more than likely like slot can probably play perimeter enough.
20:23But like if you look at those three guys, I think that that's kind of the role that they would be playing.
20:29And A.D. Mitchell, if that's the case, would have a role in that offense.
20:33And then there I think there were some reports this week that that were favorable for Mitchell that like they see him
20:40as like a featured piece in the offense or what have you.
20:44I think it's just one of those classic cases of like assuming a player is just bounced completely from an offense because
20:50they drafted an earlier round wide receiver. But I think Omar Cooper was a good prospect.
20:55I don't think, you know, close your ears, Rich.
20:58I don't think he was like a phenomenal prospect.
21:01Right. Very interesting profile, but more of like the like there is an out here where like part of Omar Cooper's game
21:07in the NFL is more gadgety than it is pure traditional wide receiver.
21:11Not to say that's what it all would be, but I think that's why A.D.
21:16Mitchell is kind of attractive. Like I've been drafting A.D.
21:19Mitchell. Trey Harris being listed on there makes a ton of sense to me because, you know, they're going to run a
21:25lot of these like they're going to run a lot less 11 personnel with Mike McDaniel.
21:30And obviously that means a lot of McConkie, in my opinion, is going to see a higher concentration of targets just because
21:37he'll be the lone wide receiver on the field at times or one of two.
21:41And I think Quentin Johnston should be the number two, like like in your priority list.
21:46But Trey Harris, some positive vibes and buzz. But what if he takes a step forward?
21:51It's not like Quentin Johnson's been undeniable throughout his career, you know.
21:55So Trey Harris is a great late round pick.
21:57Been doing that a lot. Part of it, too, is because I've been just drafting the the chargers.
22:03And then Dontavian Wicks, you know, that's that's fine.
22:06It's a little interesting. He's risen a little bit, but it's mostly, I think, a little bit of noise just because he's going so late to begin with.
22:14And of course, again, people waiting until the official drop of the I mean, that's crazy, right?
22:19Like, it's crazy. It's crazy. I just didn't think like because you looked at Dontavian Wicks before and you're like, no one likes Dontavian Wicks.
22:27Why would his ADP change? And then, yeah, it's changed post AJ Brown leaving.
22:31And I was drafting Wicks, to be honest with you, before more so like pre draft.
22:36And obviously they get Lemon and Stowers and stuff.
22:38But I think Wicks is another one of those players where not not to the same degree as AD Mitchell, because I think Lemon is better than Cooper.
22:47And I think AD Mitchell is better than Wicks.
22:50Right. So it's like it's not a one to one at all, but it is a one to one from the standpoint
22:56of there is a new rookie wide receiver stepping in.
22:59And there's a more established, if you will, at least, you know, non rookie that was already there.
23:05And let's not assume that the non rookie is just completely dust.
23:08Three other players up a half round. Two of them mentioned last week.
23:12JJ moving markets. It's Greg Dolcich, Alvin Kamara and Sean Tucker.
23:16Yeah, we're not going to we're not going to run with that one.
23:20But yeah, look, Dolcich, I think I mean, Dolcich also got some good vibes after our show.
23:25Not not from not anything that I said, but like there was there was the report.
23:29I think Omar Kelly had it where so take it with a grain of salt.
23:34But Omar Kelly had it and said that he was he looked like Malik Willis's favorite target at one point.
23:40And then, you know, Sean Tucker, it could just be a Bucky Irving related thing to you know, that there's just been negative vibes around that.
23:48And then Alvin Kamara was is Kamara is kind of interesting because a lot of it is I guess it's like the
23:55people thinking that he's not going to retire. Now instead of retiring or something based on the fact that he's like in
24:01shape and he might be playing for the Saints or whatever the case may be.
24:06But yeah, I mean, like I can understand that.
24:08I still think Kamara is a trade candidate. I think that there's a possibility that maybe like Jacksonville goes after him with the with the Chris Rodriguez stuff.
24:17I feel like everybody is very bullish on the New Orleans Saints.
24:21Yeah. Yeah. And, you know, I'm not as into a lobby, but I get it like I I think it's a very concentrated target tree.
24:28And that's part of the allure for me. I haven't dropped too much ETN.
24:32I will say that. But I do think that it's a concentrated tree.
24:36And therefore, it's a fast paced offense and it's a year two quarterback.
24:40And so I get the allure. And I'm I've definitely fallen victim of that a little bit.
24:45Thank you for calling me. ETN, by the way.
24:48I'm not changing. Nobody's going to make a change.
24:51It's too hard. Honestly, I was having a discussion with my buddies this weekend and I'm like, yeah, I can't do the
24:57the Travis Etienne thing on shows because you're just going to confuse everybody.
25:01And I'm just going to be answering questions, you know, after the show is published.
25:06So I just am keeping ETN for the time being until it's more overall generally accepted.
25:11ADP followers, a pair of Packers running backs and Chris Brooks and Marshawn Lloyd.
25:15Everybody ran to the draft room thinking that Josh Jacobs was going to be barred from football because of his off field activities.
25:22But like we've seen previously, Rashi Rice, et cetera, Jordan Addison, these things, the can tends to get kicked down the road with these things, JJ.
25:30So I think those overreactions weren't warranted. The only thing is that he could still get arrested.
25:35Like he could still like go to jail for these things.
25:38Seemingly, I mean, I don't know exactly. I mean, I basically I still think it's a volatile situation.
25:44But obviously, the the the regular standard drafter is just saying, you know, he's not in jail right now.
25:49So we don't have to draft his backups. And then at receiver, people didn't listen to us last week.
25:55We keep talking about Brandon Ayuk and Kayshawn Booty.
25:58People are afraid of these guys that in Booty's case is kind of stuck down in the depth chart in New England.
26:04And then the ambiguity around Ayuk has got people freaked out.
26:08Yeah, I think I'm still like cool with drafting either of these guys.
26:12I think there's a even if Kayshawn Booty stays in New England, he could have usable weeks every once in a while
26:18because he's proven to make big plays in the way that they deploy him.
26:22Right. And that like I don't think that he should be deployed that way, like as a player.
26:28But regardless, like if they if they deploy him as like a down the field player, he can he can make and generate big plays.
26:35But I still think there's an out here where like Washington goes after him and Washington go after Ayuk or maybe Kansas City or something.
26:43I mean, there's like there's there's places for these guys to go where their situations would improve.
26:48I'm not as bullish on like a booty as I would be a Stefan Diggs seeing his his ADP rise.
26:54But I think there's a chance that if booty gets traded in 90 percent of spots, he'd probably see his ADP rise.
27:01And then one more relevant for Joe Milton was a fall.
27:04I don't know what's going on there. I guess I'm excited about Joe Milton.
27:08But Mike Washington, Jr. out of Vegas, the rookie running back who his peripherals were were very interesting.
27:14So I was surprised to see him drop. I don't know.
27:17I'm I might just be ignorant to some news that came out with regards.
27:21I think it's just I think Kubiak talking about being OK with like leaning on gente is what that really comes down to.
27:28I mean, Mike Washington for me was an iffy ish prospect.
27:32Didn't have like the most amazing production profile. Wasn't terrible.
27:35Clearly very, very athletic. And, you know, that 40 time without that 40 time, I don't even know if he gets drafted.
27:41He's at least like a late day three guy.
27:44So, you know, is is his profile amazing? No.
27:47You know, are we like really overly excited about a backup in Vegas offense the way like I don't know.
27:53I love what Kubiak is going to probably do to the offense.
27:56And I think he's the right kind of mind and coach to for what they have right now.
28:02Personnel wise, I can kind of understand going after Mike Washington.
28:05But if you're going to go after like pure handcuffs, I think there's plenty of others that you can at least get
28:12excited about to not be like so overweight on one random handcuff.
28:15Yeah, for sure. I just I don't know. I'm very much Kubiak build like he took something called Holani and turned him
28:22into a usable asset in the playoffs. So I believe in Kubiak.
28:26Kubiak is good. I've been a Kubiak guy for sure, even when he was in New Orleans.
28:31Right. But yeah, I mean, like I think that the offense should be much more improved, you know, in Vegas.
28:37I think Gentry is a pretty solid pick at the one to turn.
28:41It's just I just don't know if Mike Washington is like that good.
28:45Those are the risers and fallers in ADP right now.
28:48Like I said, I do have a guest that guest being Mr.
28:51Pat Corain, who's kicked off this show as the first guest for the first two seasons that we did.
28:57He's of legendary upside. He co-hosts ship chasing. He's had a ton of best ball success.
29:02We talk about the changing landscape in best ball right now.
29:05When to take the onesie positions, quarterback and tight end late round picks because the late rounds kind of suck and so much more.
29:12So without further ado, here is my interview with Mr.
29:16Pat Corain. All right, Pat. First question. As you look at this best ball landscape right now, specifically over on on DraftKings,
29:22what's one of the biggest difference that you're seeing year over year?
29:26Or I mean, you could be looking at this landscape and thinking that it's the same.
29:31But what are you seeing overall? And if there is a change year over year?
29:35Well, one thing is, you know, this year we have a different rookie class than last year.
29:40And there's some strengths and weaknesses, mostly weaknesses compared to last year's rookie class.
29:44And I think that changes things up in some pretty big ways for for this year's landscape in best ball.
29:51Well, rookies, you know, have been a pretty big part, especially rookie receivers have been like a pretty big edge in best ball leagues over the years.
29:59And so, you know, I think you're seeing a couple of things.
30:02One, the rookie running backs. There's a couple first rounders that go reasonably high.
30:07And I think both guys are interesting picks. I like Jeremiah Love more at ADP.
30:11But then you get past those guys and it really dries up.
30:15And we're talking, you know, a lot of day three type of guys that here in June are hard to know for
30:21sure if we're going to get anything from this year.
30:24And not having interesting rookie upside swings in, you know, let's say outside the top six rounds definitely shakes things up a bit.
30:31And then at wide receiver, I think some of the stink of the rookie class from a dynasty perspective has translated over to the best ball market.
30:39And I actually think there's some values at rookie wide receiver this year where they're a little bit cheaper than we've had over the past couple years.
30:48So those guys to me are actually targets. A number of them are pretty clear targets at cheaper prices than we've had
30:54recently where rookie wide receivers have kind of had some inflation compared to where they used to go like four or five years ago.
31:01With this rookie class, because I'll kind of skip ahead to another question that I wanted to ask you.
31:07But I think it's pretty pertinent and kind of ties into it.
31:11When I'm drafting right now, I'm looking at the late rounds and I feel awful about almost every player that is available
31:17in the late rounds of these drafts. My question to you is, do you think that this is a normal feeling that
31:24I feel every year and I've forgotten and this is not any different than what we typically see?
31:30Or do you think that it is a weaker late round, you know, round 18, round 19, round 20 type group than we've historically seen?
31:37And again, we have to give this context that we're doing this in June, where I think probably in July and August,
31:44we'll have at least some better idea of some situations and stuff like that.
31:48And, you know, players and the roles that they're going to play.
31:52And maybe we feel better about some more later round darts.
31:55Maybe you don't even feel this way at all.
31:58But do you think the rookie class is playing a huge role in that feeling that I'm feeling?
32:03A hundred percent. The rookie class is factoring in there.
32:06I mean, last year at the end of the summer, like final weeks of drafts, Kyle Manunga started popping as, you know, a pretty strong pick.
32:14And he remained available in like the 18th, 19th, 20th round on DraftKings.
32:18You know, he was a seventh round pick. So it took a while for us to view him as a reasonable click.
32:25But I mean, it's hard for me to even see like who that would be because like Katron Allen would probably be a comparable type of player.
32:33Well, Katron Allen's already getting drafted. Right. You know, he's not available in those rounds now.
32:38So there's just not as many guys now we were taking Jarquez Hunter.
32:41We were taking DJ Giddens. Like there were a bunch of landmines, too.
32:45But it was the rookie class, the depth of the running back class did make it easier to kind of dream on these picks.
32:53And then also to ultimately find a couple of these guys who mattered, even if it took a while to kind of
32:59realize that that Manunga was was the best of the bunch in those final rounds.
33:04But yeah, I mean, I think there's also some NFL personnel shift stuff going on here a little bit where we are
33:10seeing like more two tight end sets, more teams talking about how I think the Jaguars talking about playing more 12.
33:17It's like, come on, man. I know you've got more.
33:20What are you doing to us? Yeah. Like Nick Borkatures.
33:23I got to worry about that. Yeah. So it's you get down and you're like, what receivers can I just buy routes on?
33:30I think those guys, the depth of that kind of group of players also probably a little thinner now than it was a couple of years ago.
33:38And I think part of it is like, yeah, it's it isn't that fun always to, you know, in the 19th round like that.
33:45That is not a high hit rate kind of group.
33:48Sure. And we probably have memory wiped some of the disgusting picks we were making over the past three, four years.
33:55But yeah, I mean, I'm taking more tight ends in those final rounds.
33:58Yeah. And I think that's one way to kind of especially I am considering on my streams just having like a rolling
34:05banner that says it's June because like there's there's like so like it used to be that like Scott Fishbowl kind of
34:12kick things off and of the redraft. Like this was dynasty season.
34:15This was hard. We were sending trades. We're not we're not really draft.
34:19We can relax a minute in June. Yeah. Yeah.
34:22Yeah. And so that has changed. Like we're we're talking like definitively about the structures of teams in 2026 for, you know,
34:29the entire offseason in the early part of June.
34:31And I think things will change. We're all so much more dialed in than we were like in 2019 this time of
34:38year that it doesn't it's like hard to remember that how much things can change and probably will change.
34:44So the late rounds will look different as we get more information.
34:47But for now taking some of these tight ends, you know, it does feel like a way where you're not just like completely punting.
34:55Yeah. And taking a zero and you're like maybe like with Eli Stowers.
34:59I probably am buying routes, particularly in the at the end of the season.
35:03His ADP is around 200 on DraftKings. Right. So it's like you get late and I'll take that fourth tight end who's
35:09probably going to be running routes at the end of the season.
35:13I'll take a stab on one of the Rams tight, you know, committee tight end guys.
35:18They're going to play a bunch of tight ends.
35:21We know that. So, you know, Michael Mayer probably plays some.
35:24You can get into this. Charlie Kolar started to consider a little bit like is, you know, purely as kind of a 20th round guy.
35:31He's a name on my mind. I'm not hammering him, but like a sickie I've taken a lot of.
35:37Yeah, because I think he you know, he's on a good offense.
35:41He'll run routes. It's going to be part time.
35:44He'll spike for a couple weeks, but it's the same type of profile that you would have had.
35:49Probably a little bit more cheaply with with some of these wide receivers that are harder to find once you get to the final rounds.
35:56And then I am taking, though, as I alluded to earlier, some of these rookie wide receivers.
36:02I still think those guys are underpriced and you can get even in the final rounds.
36:06You can get a Chris Brazel. You can get the Jacoby Lane, Elijah Surratt, you know, one or both those guys.
36:13If you want, you can get Zach Wright branch.
36:16You know, there's a bunch of those rookie wide receivers that are still.
36:19So, I mean, Jeremy Bernard is still, you know, he's more expensive than that.
36:24He's in the 180s, but he's pretty cheap for a second round pick.
36:28Right. You know, so there's once you get, you know, not the final rounds, but late in the draft, those rookie wide receivers definitely pop too.
36:35Well, with the tight ends, this is this is kind of I feel like made me not go as hard at elite
36:42tight end right now is the fact that because the latter parts of the draft are, I should say more so McBride than Bowers, to be fair.
36:50But like because the latter parts of the draft are set up the way they're they're set up where I feel relatively
36:57decent about like Terrence Ferguson having a role this year, like like doing doing something at some point.
37:02Yeah. Right. And like being a tight end three or four, even four.
37:06Right. Because if I'm if I'm waiting or like Pat Fryermuth or someone like that, we're like, yeah, like we're doing on Washington.
37:13Sure. Sure. Like like there and it's because of like you said, the way the NFL has evolved, the way it's changed
37:20and you're you're able to at least capture that position in that way.
37:24But then you're staring at like Brock Bowers, who could clearly go nuclear this year.
37:28Yeah. You know, you're staring at Trey McBride coming off the season that he had even Colson Loveland.
37:34You can make a very easy pro argument for.
37:36So what's been your approach at tight end? Has it been like like, OK, I'm in round two.
37:42I'm going to just draft Bowers and then obviously adjust, you know, as I go.
37:46Or is it like, hey, I know that the way the landscape looks right now is that there's a lot of ambiguity
37:53in those late rounds where I'm probably going to just get tight end.
37:57So maybe I'm going to lean running back wide receiver instead in round two and not go after one of these guys
38:04and then maybe get some some some exposure to those guys later on in the year.
38:08Has that been a thought process or has it just been like, no, I think Bowers is going to smash.
38:14I'm going to draft Brock Bowers. Yeah, I think this this question kind of goes to like with best ball, you're there's
38:21sort of the are you evaluating like what has worked in the past versus trying to be forward looking and what will work given.
38:28A brand new set of ADPs that apply to this specific player pool that we're only going to get one shot at this offseason.
38:36And this is where we we have a tool leg up called the sidekick that has it's a sim driven player recommendation tool.
38:43And we're able to evaluate things like what is available now versus what of it is available later by simming out the
38:49NFL season and then also the contest that you're in.
38:52And what we're seeing, honestly, is that like Bowers, the fact that these tight ends are available later does not mean that you need to avoid Bowers.
39:00And in fact, when you have Bowers, you do not need to limit yourself to two tight ends.
39:06Yeah. Like if you get to the final rounds and it's like there aren't any good players left, but there are some
39:12tight ends who could hit your lineup. You should probably take those tight ends.
39:17Yeah. You know, and it might be the case that you have extra roster spots as well.
39:22If you went with a build that's like four or five total running backs where you got some running backs early.
39:28I don't think you necessarily need 11 wide receivers even on full PPR in 20 rounds on draft games.
39:34Like you can have nine wide receivers. You can have, you know, three, maybe even four tight ends depending on where your
39:41tight end two came with a Brock Bowers or Trey McBride or a Colson Lovelland or Tyler Warren or whatever.
39:47Like you can still build in some depth at that position if the opportunity cost at the other positions is pretty low.
39:53And if you have, I think particularly if you have running back covered with kind of a hyper fragile build.
39:59Sure. Where you've got at least a couple early kind of hammers.
40:03Yeah. Yeah. Have you been, have you gone after Bowers more than McBride so far?
40:07Like, has that been. I prefer Bowers. Yeah. Yeah.
40:10Yeah. Yeah. I mean, his quarterback situation, I feel better about because we're probably looking at rookies in both teams in the,
40:17in the money weeks of these tournaments. And I, Mendoza's a better prospect than Peck.
40:21And then you have, you know, you've got Clint Kubiak who literally just powered his whole offense through like hyper concentrated through his one elite pass catcher.
40:29And that very clearly is Brock Bowers on this new team.
40:33And then, you know, in the beginning of the season, if we do get a veteran, I feel as good, if not
40:39better about, you know, cousins compared to Brissette given this whole, you know, holdout sort of thing that, you know, and Brissette
40:46got there a lot on, on volume last year.
40:49Though not sure he necessarily has with these, the new coaching staff.
40:52So, and ultimately I think Mendoza plays pretty early on in the season.
40:56Yeah. Yeah. I would, I would agree there. I feel, it feels like analysts are piling on Trey McBride to a degree
41:03right now, but I think there's, there's some reason for it.
41:06Like there's, there's definitely touchdown regression that'll likely come, which is crazy to say, right?
41:11Because McBride was not that guy, but like, you know, like, like his end zone, like his end zone target number.
41:17Uh, I think it was like 18 or something last year, which is wild at tight end.
41:22That just does not happen frequently at all. Like, I think that's been one of the biggest epiphanies for me.
41:28This is kind of a tangent, but like one of the biggest epiphanies for me with regression analysis is that a lot
41:35of people look at the expected numbers and they almost, you know, like Matthew Stafford last year, Stafford, Stafford throws 46 touchdown
41:42passes, but he had an expected touchdown number of like 42 or 43, depending on like the formula you're using.
41:48Which really isn't like outperforming touchdown expectation by like an obscene amount.
41:51Right. But we shouldn't assume that he can get to that expected touchdown number year over year.
41:56Right. Also will probably regress. Exactly. So like there's the problem, the problem with the expected numbers that we always like use
42:03and reference is that like, I think that they're often better in season than they are out of season because in season
42:10you're not going to see as many game plan shifts and you can really spot regression that way.
42:15Whereas out of season, like things can change dramatically.
42:18Like we're seeing in Arizona right now where we don't even know what the deal is with Jacoby Brissette.
42:24We don't know when he'll be starting. And I think that we feel confident that towards the end of the year, again,
42:30the money weeks, he won't be starting for that team.
42:33And they obviously got by last year in fantasy from a volume perspective.
42:37And they were the top team in pass attempts last year.
42:40And there's just a lot of like question marks and ambiguity.
42:44Whereas like everything else with Brock Bowers is just seemingly pointed up.
42:47Right. Like it just seems like it's gone in a much more favorable direction.
42:52I agree with what you just said. And it's one reason that I like to look.
42:56I like players who are efficient, you know, because, you know, who generally is efficient, good players.
43:02Right. Right. And I recognize that if someone is insanely efficient, that they'll probably regress.
43:06Like I don't expect Dalton Kincaid to have like 2.7 yards per outrun or whatever if he runs a lot more routes,
43:13which I would like him to do if I'm betting on Kincaid.
43:16Right. That probably drops. But, you know, he's got 1.79 career yards per outrun.
43:21He's probably pretty good. You know, so the efficiency part of it is something I do want to consider in a positive
43:27way as opposed to just betting on that volume.
43:30And I think the like Brissette wasn't bad last year from an efficiency standpoint, but so much of the production really was volume driven.
43:37And with new coaching staff, I don't feel confident that we get really high dropback volume there.
43:42And I don't think we'll get really high dropback volume in Las Vegas, to be clear.
43:47I don't think we'll have probably low dropback volume.
43:50But just the target concentration from Clint Kubiak in a well-designed, you know, type of passing game that's looking to punish defenses
43:57for overplaying the run and run the ball a lot to make them overplay the run and then play action off of that.
44:04I mean, Bowers is a perfect fit for that.
44:06Like a play action weapon. Like that's his whole deal.
44:09Right. So and then like Trey Tucker, they're talking up who was a pretty good pick early on.
44:15He was very cheap. He's moved up a bit and they're moving him around the formation.
44:20He's kind of clearly the number one wide receiver there right now.
44:23Probably Jack Besh or Deontay Thornton are figuring it out as their wide receiver, too.
44:28Like we often like talk about like, hey, it's actually pretty good when there's tight ends on the field for the wide
44:34receivers because that lowers their target competition. This is like the rare case where it's the opposite or the tight.
44:40Yeah. Give me Jack Besh over Michael Mayer, please.
44:43Yeah. If I'm if I'm if I'm drafting Jalen Naylor or like Trey Tucker or something like I'd much rather Jack Besh be on the field.
44:51100 percent. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, Bowers is actually benefiting from from how bad the receivers are there as well.
44:57So, yeah, I mean, Bauer. I mean, and, you know, just an elite prospect.
45:02Great rookie year. Struggled through an injury last year.
45:04Was still fairly productive. You know, all things considered.
45:07And is set up for the potential for him to go nuclear is what is what has me on Bowers over McBride.
45:14And ADP has followed that now. You know, you'd be going against the market if you went McBride first.
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46:10That's Wix dot com slash Harmony. Let's talk about those early rounds, though, because the meta I'd say.
46:15So here's the thing. I've been doing a lot of like season long analysis for the draft guide for the late round draft guide.
46:22And I do think that the especially within our like circle, like the strategy talk about fantasy football is very much dominated
46:29by best ball as opposed to season long. And so there's a lot of talk right now about how like things are
46:36so different with the amount of running backs that people are drafting early and such.
46:40But if you look at season long ADP and you look at like how many running backs have been drafted in round
46:47one, you know, top 12, top 24, top 36, top 48, top 60.
46:51Year over year over the last few years, there's there's maybe one or two more that we're seeing this year versus like
46:57previous years, which really shouldn't dramatically change a narrative.
47:00You know, like it really shouldn't like drastically change the way that we're viewing things.
47:05But in best ball, I do think that it's different from two perspectives, one being, yes, there are maybe some more running backs being drafted early.
47:13But also I think that the talking heads to like the people who are giving analysis and talking about the game are
47:19being more comfortable drafting running backs with their first couple of first few picks and just going running back heavy.
47:25And we're like back to that, you know, meta, if you will, you know, that that we were doing when like during
47:32the MFL 10 years back in the day, you know, like this was.
47:36This was the way that like I remember Mike beers who was very into the best ball game was was all about
47:42the three running back be done kind of build that that I think is much more popular today than it was three
47:49or four years ago, you know, and that's just the way that this is all transpired.
47:54So I guess my question to you is as a result of that, you know, we often know that we should be digging when people are zagging.
48:02Is this a year then that we should be looking to go zero RB or like maybe even saying like, is it
48:09a year that we should have that more frequently than the market in our portfolio?
48:13Yeah. So I guess on the on the kind of the concept of like the running backs, because the narrative is sort
48:20of like, you know, full boomer capitulation, you know, guys like me aren't doing zero running back.
48:25We're doing, you know, hyper fragile more often or, you know, in my case, I'm doing it a lot more often than
48:32I'm going zero running back this year. And I guess like what I would kind of push back on that narrative is
48:38that like, if you look back at, you know, I wrote an article just looking at the the rookie wide receiver pricing.
48:45And as part of that, I was looking because the rookie wide receivers been on all the winning best ball mania teams so far.
48:52And so I pulled those teams up and it's like, hey, you know, the wide receiver to here was like pick 14
48:59like in this, you know, in like Liam Murphy's winning draft.
49:02It's like it was literally pick 14 that we didn't see the second wide receiver come off the board.
49:08And this is still like a super different environment than that.
49:11Yes. Environment like the idea that there is something happening, which is that.
49:15People like me who have traditionally really liked to go zero running back aren't going zero running back as often and are
49:22mixing in builds that where we take more running backs in the first five rounds.
49:26Sure. Then we used to. But it doesn't it's not the same thing as the ADP has shifted to the point.
49:33Yes. Where all these running backs are going super high again.
49:36Right. I think that's the big thing that the people are kind of like conflating where if the prices haven't shifted that
49:43much overall in terms of like where the wide receivers go.
49:46I mean, we're we're seeing Chase, Jason Puka, Jefferson, Lamb, Aminra always basically going in the first nine ish picks.
49:52Right. Nine, 10 picks. They're gone. Maybe maybe get lucky.
49:55He gets CD at 11 or something. But at the end around one, those six wide receivers are gone.
50:01And so it's not like the whole it's not just those NFL 10 days.
50:05It was just green. It's green. There might be one wide receiver.
50:09You're you're into RB twos by the middle around to like you're deep into RB twos.
50:13So that's where, you know, I think actually. You look at you have to look at the rest of this year's player
50:20landscape and it's not just that this rookie running back class isn't that great.
50:24And especially there's no depth to it. Right. Jeremiah, I love the awesome prospect.
50:29He goes at the two three turn. Jadarian Price lands an amazing spot.
50:32First round pick. Like he's usually gone by the end around five.
50:36OK, then we're kind of done. You know, there's not a lot of guys to invest in at rookies.
50:42The second year guys. Awesome class last year. We've got starters and projected starters coming out of year two.
50:48Where do they go? You could get facial tooting in round six, maybe.
50:51But that whole tier is pretty much Judkins, Henderson.
50:54Yeah. All those guys are gone by the end of round six.
50:58So there's your upside group of running backs. How are you going to beat the guys who go early at running back
51:04if that kind of like high upside tier is basically wiped out?
51:08Now, there's guys I like. Like I like Jonathan Brooks, but he's rocketed up since he's looked healthier.
51:13He's you know, he's going in the 90s a lot of the times now.
51:18So it's not like you can sit back in round 13 and scoop up Jonathan Brooks.
51:23You know, it's like, how do I beat these these teams that have the early running backs?
51:28And I think in a lot of cases, it's by also having some early running backs.
51:33Maybe I've got two or three guys. Maybe I've got four total running backs on the build and I'm done that that Mike beers hyper fragile.
51:40This is Justin Herzig one with a hyper fragile team back in 2020.
51:44It's it's a build that has worked, you know, that there's historical backing to it.
51:49And I think it makes a lot of sense for this current landscape.
51:53As we talked about earlier, it's June. We might have running backs that bubble up as really strong picks.
51:58Nicholas Singleton could look like an awesome pick. You know, TyJ Spears could be someone that we're like starting to think could
52:05push Tony Pollard or something like I don't know.
52:08There's like a bunch of guys. I don't feel confident in either of those plays.
52:12Yeah, there's things that can go down. Yeah, there's things that can go down, you know, and so the landscape could be
52:19pretty different in August or at least mildly different, you know, and I'm mixing in different builds.
52:24I do have some zero running back builds now to be clear.
52:28I have some here running back builds. I have I have builds where I go running back running back and then push it for running back three.
52:36I've got a mix of things that I'm doing.
52:39But yeah, one of the things that I'm doing is like I've got builds that are 4x running backs like running backs in a row.
52:46So like I've not really done that in the past.
52:49I think that's where something like when we're evaluating this player landscape using Sims and using logic to an extent of like,
52:56yeah, running backs just aren't really the upside at the position is drying up faster.
53:00Right. Right. That's such a big core part of what's going on is you like who can you sell yourself up on on realistic upside?
53:08Not the kind of guy that you can go.
53:11Oh, I'll cut him. If it doesn't work out, I'll cut him.
53:14You can't cut him. Right. Right. So who who is a guy that you have the confidence that you want on your
53:21roster all year and then has upside, especially upside he can achieve without an injury.
53:25You know, like a Bucky Irving, a Chase Brown, like that kind of play there.
53:30It's thin. It's thin this year. I think that there's there's two things happening here.
53:35So it's funny that you bring all this up because I'm working on the running back section in the draft guide right now.
53:41And one of the things that I'm doing that I do every year to a degree, I'm trying to do it in
53:48like different ways and more precise ways every year.
53:51But I'm looking at how we've drafted running backs within their position, every every position within their position.
53:56So like positional rank, like so RB1 to 12, RB1 to 24 up to 48.
54:01I do that at wide receiver and I do it at quarterback through 24 and tight end through 24.
54:07And I'm looking at the R squared between where they were drafted positional rank wise and how many points per game they actually scored.
54:14Right. Just to see how predictive and how well we've done things based on what the market has said, what ADP has said.
54:21And if you look at running back and you look at RB1 to RB48 and you compare that to wide receiver one through wide receiver 48.
54:29Number one, since 2014, running back has actually been more predictive when you look at guys who have played eight or more games and points per game.
54:37But the really crazy thing is that since 2016, so you're cutting off the first three years in that subset.
54:43It's basically just continue to get more and more predictive.
54:46Like we've gotten better and better at predicting which running backs are there's been, you know, some valleys in there.
54:52Like 2023 was a pretty bad year for how we did things ADP wise.
54:56But like last year, we were at like a 0.49 R squared the year before that 0.47 when the average over this time period was 0.39.
55:04So we've been better over the last few years and handful of years than we were at the start of this sample.
55:11Right. And I think two things are happening. I think that, you know, I do think that people are just generally smarter
55:17and we're better at pinpointing who's good, who isn't.
55:20There's information everywhere. We're paying more attention to pay more attention.
55:23Like there's, there's reason as to why we would be better at predicting which running backs are going to be good.
55:30But I also do think this plays a very direct role in what you referenced earlier, which was the way the NFL landscape has actually changed.
55:37Because one of the things that's gone on with running back recently is not only is it a more run heavy league
55:44in the NFL right now, like we're seeing just more runs in general and running back having a larger like pie of
55:51touchdowns, let's say, or whatever the case may be.
55:53So like that's going to help these earlier round guys who we know are going to get big workloads do well.
56:00But while this is all going on and this 12 personnel and these heavy personnel packages are happening, running backs are being targeted at a lower rate.
56:08But the elite guys are still seeing pretty decent target shares overall.
56:12And so I think what we saw back in 2016, and by the way, this is not fully fledged out in the
56:18draft guide yet, but this was like literally the section I was about to start like writing and like digging into.
56:25So this is very much like fresh on my mind, but not fully out.
56:29But what I think is going on is that when we did zero RB, when it was most successful, which probably peaked
56:35in like 2016 ish timeframe, like in that, like, like peak peaks, right?
56:39Like there was good zero running back best ball results, like really good results for like 2021, 2022.
56:45And you still had it then. But what I think is going on is that back then, even five years ago, we
56:51were able to say this guy at the very least is going to have a really good receiving role.
56:57And then it can build up into something bigger on the ground as well.
57:01Those guys are so difficult to find right now, in my opinion.
57:05I agree with that. And that's something I think Gretchen's written about this, Ben Gretchen, but this kind of getting that archetype
57:12getting phased out a little bit over time. And so I think that's there's definitely something to that.
57:17I also think it's something where there's guys. Mike Davis, when he was the Falcon starter, was like a fifth round pick.
57:24Yeah. In basketball. Right. Alexander Madison, when he was kind of anointed as the Viking starter, but like clearly wasn't good.
57:30Zamir White a couple of years ago. Zamir White.
57:33Yeah. These types of guys, we're talking about sixth round picks, right?
57:36Like Trey Sermon, you know, like, I mean, I guess you could say he was an upside pick.
57:42I thought he was so bad that I didn't buy it.
57:45But he's like a seventh rounder. Like he was like, yeah, yeah, yeah.
57:49Yeah. So, but you have these kind of guys that are what, for one reason or another, kind of more like volume
57:56plays where you, it's like they're the, either the prospect profile or the, the, you know, NFL efficiency sample really wasn't there.
58:02That kind of reminds me of Rashad White or Aaron Jones or Jordan Mason or, you know, these guys that are now
58:09going very cheaply, like round like 120 or something like that.
58:12Those are your old sixth round picks. Rashad White signs, you know, a cheap deal, but he's the nominal starter for the commanders.
58:19Good offense can project them for volume because he's going to catch passes.
58:23Sixth round pick. Easy, easy, easy fade. We're going to take like, give me the guy.
58:28Chris Rodriguez, I think would have been more like a seventh round pick, you know, a few years ago and Bachelot Tootin might be going behind him.
58:36But now it's Bachelot Tootin's five, six, and you have to pay up for him, pay up for the upside.
58:42Yeah. And it makes that discussion more difficult for people like us who might like be into that player because he's the upside case.
58:49And then all of a sudden you're like, yeah, I like I like Bachelot Tootin a lot as a prospect.
58:55Right. And I and but now you're in this this you have a real decision to make.
59:01Whereas before, sure, as an analyst, you're just like, yeah, draft him as a as an eighth, ninth round pick.
59:07Easy, like just done. And why am I taking Kyron Williams?
59:10Kyron Williams is is a fragile play. I can get Bachelot Tootin who might outperform Kyron Williams in the ninth or tenth round.
59:17Like, give me a receiver and I'll beat you at running back anyway.
59:21But now I'm like, I'm going to go to war with some of the most fragile, dustiest running backs I can think of in in the 120s.
59:29Like, it's just harder. Like, how am I going to lap building a super team with the zero running back build was
59:36always like I will I will get the upside profiles that are undervalued.
59:40I will get some veteran profiles that help me score points early in the season until my other guys come online.
59:46I'll get rookie profiles people don't realize have a much better chance of earning work over the course of the year than they're being given credit for.
59:54I don't have I got the dusty guys. Yeah, I have cheaper dusty guys than I used to just pure volume plays.
60:01But I don't have the upside at a very cheap cost to where I go.
60:05Yeah, what? Why on earth am I am I taking this like, you know, Chase Brown's fine.
60:10But why am I going to spend a second round pick when I can get, you know, 80 percent of his production
60:17by the end of the season in the tenth round?
60:20But I don't know who that is. Yeah, you know, and that that's what makes it harder to avoid those early running backs.
60:27Now, I don't like all the early running backs like the same.
60:31But are there any that you're that you are fading a little bit?
60:35There's a couple that I'm trying to be like a little bit less heavy on James Cook.
60:40I'm not taking as much on because I want to be overweight on Ashton Gentee.
60:44I actually like Saquon Barkley a good amount. This I like him more than Cook.
60:49Yeah. And so I'm taking generally like I'm getting two picks there.
60:52So I have like a good amount of Cook Barkley.
60:55So it's not like I'm fully fading Cook, but he's someone I'm not as excited about.
61:00I'm not as excited about Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, Kyron Williams.
61:03Like there are these profiles that I do fundamentally think are kind of fragile and I don't think the players are that good.
61:10So I'm like, yeah, I don't love clicking this guy.
61:13Javante Williams is a click I'm making, but I don't love it.
61:17You know, that's like I have had a hard time with both him and because I think David Montgomery is sort of in the same boat.
61:25Yeah, he's a volume based play. Yeah, which which historically we've we've taught people slash we've done the like don't.
61:31But I'm also trying to not overthink it a little bit with those players in a way, you know, where I'm just like this seems so straightforward.
61:39But realistically, I don't I don't want to be massively overweight on those two because it scares me.
61:45Me neither. But I do. But I think. I also have not like hard fading them in a way that I would
61:51have a few years ago because it would have been so much easier.
61:55So like, look, if I have Ashen Gentry, Saquon Barkley, T Higgins or Zay Flowers or Garrett Wilson or whatever.
62:01And a Javante Williams. I have I have some Seedy Lamb, Saquon Barkley, Javante Williams, you know, and Teter O'McMillan teams or whatever.
62:08Like, I think that's pretty fun, actually. Like, yeah.
62:11And then I get Dak. I might take Jake Ferguson.
62:14I got this Cowboys build like I'm kind of enjoying some of these Javante teams.
62:18You know, it's it's not as clear cut, I think, as it would have been if you had like what can you
62:25get now versus what can you get later? It used to be, I think, at running back there was upside available later.
62:32And I'm hopeful that maybe we get some of that in August where we have some guys emerge.
62:37There could be some injuries. There could be some shakeups.
62:40It could be like a suspension or something. And we do have guys maybe in round 12 where we're like, yeah, this
62:47dude looks like a potential league winner. And that changes up what I'm doing early.
62:51Probably it's more like next year when we have good rookie running backs again.
62:56And we can go back to. But I want to build for the environment that I'm in.
63:01Right. I don't want to just build based on what worked in a different environment.
63:05Yeah. I mean, look, I think that Montgomery and Williams types were a little bit easier to arbitrage back in the day.
63:12Like it was just like not as because not that they would have the player that we'd arbitrage with would have like projectable volume in the same way.
63:20But they had out exactly that volume. Exactly. Yeah, exactly.
63:23The hit rate's lower on the volume. But also people are overestimating that the hit rate that that player will hold the volume.
63:30Yeah. And then I've got a guy who might earn volume over the course of the year because he's good.
63:36Yeah. But again, as we talked about like Travion Henderson going at the 4-5 turn and I'm not even drafting him.
63:43Yeah. Is crazy to me. I'm like, what's happened to the game I love?
63:47Yeah. I used to this guy should be a seventh round pick and I should be telling everyone they're crazy for not taking him at the 4-5 turn.
63:55Yeah. Right. Like it's it's I don't have a lot of Travion Henderson.
63:59I'm a huge Drake May guy. I want to invest in the Patriots.
64:03And yet I'm like, I don't know how in a format where like I'm not picking my starters and I'm not just
64:10kind of putting him on the bench for a few weeks until he takes the job.
64:15Like and I kind of want my early picks to contribute all year.
64:19Ideally. Yeah. It's not a lot. Yeah. He might hurt my advance rate pretty meaningfully compared to some of these other, you
64:25know, guys that are available in the same range.
64:28Like Cam Skadaboo is another second year guy. And he if he's healthy, he should he's going to get a ton of work all year.
64:35So it's and like he's a good pass catcher.
64:38He's good at the goal line. So, yeah, I mean, it's just the profiles that used to be kind of systemically undervalued are not being undervalued right now.
64:47One other thing I should note about it being June, though, is that the people in these draft rooms are not going
64:53to be the exact same people later. Right. They will literally just be different drafters in August that aren't drafting right now.
65:00And those people I'm hoping feel differently about Travion Henderson than the people that are drafting right now.
65:05Because I would really like some like sixth round, seventh round Travion Henderson.
65:09You recognize the upside like you recognize exactly this.
65:12Yeah, of course. A hundred percent. Yeah, a hundred percent.
65:15I just don't want to pay quite as much as I'm paying now.
65:19And that would be another thing. Like I talked about like, you know, round 12 or whatever, round 16, some running backs opening up.
65:26But even if it was something like at the I know at the six, seven turn, I can reliably get basehole to and Travion Henderson.
65:34That would change the way I'm drafting, too. Yeah, exactly.
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66:31That's Wix dot com slash harmony. I feel similarly in a way to what's gone on with quarterback where, you know, obviously
66:37you have like Josh Allen's kind of like in his own area.
66:41And I love your take on Allen and how frequently you're getting him and all that kind of stuff.
66:47But the crazy thing with quarterback is that historically, like if you were to like really dig into like middle round QB
66:53type data, like I'm talking like QB six to 10 ish, you know, in that range or like QB four to 10, whatever the case may be.
67:01Especially like pocket passer guys like they've been like relatively not great bets.
67:05But the difference in what I saw, I saw this last year to happening very frequently, especially on DK.
67:11Yeah, it's definitely happening this year. But again, it's what can you get later?
67:15And with the later round guys continuously being pushed up because of what's probably a scarcity thing in people's eyes.
67:21Right. Like they're they don't want to fall behind and they're worried about not getting that player.
67:26And then that just slowly, slowly gets these guys ADPs getting higher and higher.
67:31But when that happens, it does make the players, the you know, the burrows of the world be easier to click because
67:37you're only there's only a two round gap between him to the next tier or two of quarterback.
67:43And so I guess my question to you is how you're approaching quarterback.
67:47Are you fading Josh Allen? You know, is that typically the way that you approach things?
67:51And do you see the same thing that I'm seeing in the way that the quarterback landscape has kind of come together?
67:58Yeah, I am fading Josh Allen pretty aggressively. The market seems to be indicating Josh Allen is like twice as good as the next best quarterback.
68:06Like there's a huge there's one elite quarterback in the NFL and it's Josh Allen and everyone else is kind of like
68:13expensive versions of, you know, the kind of the pocket passer archetype.
68:16Yeah, but that's like not true at all. Yeah, like Lamar Jackson.
68:20Jaden Daniels like Drake May was outscoring Josh Allen in the fantasy playoffs last year.
68:24Yeah, right. And he just got AJ Brown and he got Romeo Dobbs who is also an upgrade like and he has
68:31Trayvon Anderson going in his second year and is very explosive last year.
68:35Like there's so many ways that this offense could get better and be, you know, still very much built around Drake May.
68:42I don't I don't 26 ADP for Josh Allen and Drake May is going in the middle of the sixth round.
68:48Like I just won't have Josh Allen then even like Jalen Hurts who will go in like the late seventh at times.
68:55And Hurts is an awesome pick. And I'm like, I'm like there is a like what are the what are the true
69:01odds here that Jalen Hurts just straight up outscores Josh Allen this year.
69:05It's definitely not the gap that we're seeing right now in ADP from from an odds perspective.
69:10Yeah. And like this is a game where you have to advance.
69:14Then you have to advance again and advance again.
69:17And then you have to score the most points in week 17.
69:20And like Hurts because of the push push has not been banned.
69:24Like this is an ADP I would expect if like the push push had gotten banned.
69:29Yeah, right. He's barely ahead of Dak now who I think is also decent enough pick.
69:33But Hurts is a crazy good value. Like in a given week he can he can explode because of his ability to score touchdowns.
69:41And like they'll be fine. I know, you know, they're losing Brown.
69:44But I think they added Makai Lemon who I think is a really good value in his own right.
69:50And a good player, really good prospect. And they have Eli Stowers like they'll they'll be fine.
69:55And they don't have Kevin Petulo. They don't have Kevin Petulo.
69:59They've got Sean Mannion who's there. You know, Jordan Mailata was saying he's a wizard.
70:03Yeah. He said if I could put three people the three smartest people in a room Sean would be in there.
70:09Actually probably only be Sean. That's what he said.
70:12He couldn't think of another smart coach. But but you know amazing that that team has won two Super Bowls in the last.
70:19Ten years or whatever. Like the way they talk about their coaching stabs and stuff.
70:24The way that we've seen like Sirianni do. Like it's crazy.
70:27Howie man. Howie knows his stuff. But yeah, I mean this offense is a bounce back candidate there.
70:32I feel good about that. I feel really good about their OC hire.
70:36I think I think they'll improve. And yet and you have a rushing quarterback who specifically scores rushing touchdowns and he's available past, you know, pick 75.
70:44And if anything, it seems to me that he's falling on DraftKings.
70:48It's yes. It's bizarre. Yes. And so like like and then that next group to like Justin Herbert has crazy upside.
70:54And he's in the 80s. Right. Right. To me, it just it means even like I I understand like Lamar and round
71:01especially when he falls to like the five six turn and stuff because you're starting to get to you're starting to get
71:08in that like opportunity cost range where it's a little bit if you're especially if like the room is sharp enough and
71:14taking the right running backs and wide receivers by the time you're making that pick.
71:19So like I get it because I think that he I mean, he obviously can match slash exceed Josh Allen pretty easily.
71:26Right. Despite what he did last year. But it does another OC change.
71:29That's exciting. Right. Right. Right. But like even, you know, Jane Daniels is upside and all these guys have upside.
71:35And then and then you look at like the the quarterbacks that, you know, we used to get in like round 17.
71:42Right. That we like literally would, you know, you would never play in a season long league or be excited about.
71:48But those guys are like round 12 picks now.
71:51And when you shrink that gap, it makes the guys at the top more appealing than they otherwise would be because there isn't that discount late.
71:59It's similar to what you were talking about with running back.
72:02The difference is that like instead of running back just being drafted earlier, running back is just being drafted in a smarter way.
72:09Right. Right. Quarterback is just being drafted earlier than it than it was before.
72:14Yeah. I mean, and then you have like Kyler Murray, like got benched last year and you know, there's some real risk
72:20there, but he's also a Russian quarterback and Kevin O'Connell offense with Justin Jefferson and other pretty good pass catchers like that could go well.
72:28Right. You know, he's he's still available outside the top 100 picks.
72:31Yeah. Patrick Mahomes, who's going to go down as a Hall of Fame quarterback.
72:36You know, one of the best to ever do it is available outside the top 90 picks and everything about his rehab has been very bullish so far.
72:44I mean, he's he's participating in seven on seven right now.
72:47He's not doing 11 on 11s and they're not doing like motions.
72:51So no one runs into him. But like he literally hit Xavier worthy on a deep pass and then skip to the sideline, like going nuts.
72:59Like he's looking pretty healthy. He looking pretty good for week one.
73:02Maybe he doesn't even play week one. Maybe he misses the first few games, but like he can easily pay off this
73:09ADP, even if that happens because of the way these tournaments work.
73:13Like you get you get Patrick Mahomes back as Patrick Mahomes in weeks 15, 16 and 17, where all the money is.
73:19And you you spent pick 90 on him versus a guy who spent a third round pick, maybe second round pick on Josh Allen.
73:27Like the opportunity cost for those two picks is so, so different, especially everything we talked about with smarter pricing at running back.
73:34Yeah. It's just like so crazy. I just don't really understand the quarterback pricing.
73:38I think there's a lot of, there's a lot of opportunities at quarterback this year that are atypical.
73:43Like I think the quarterback market generally is pretty efficient.
73:46Like at least it has been pretty efficient. Yeah.
73:49I haven't had huge, huge stands at quarterback. I mean, a couple of years ago when Drake may was going in the
73:56final rounds, I had a big stand on him, but it's, it's been harder generally to have giant stands at quarterback.
74:02Cause you're, you're, you're stacking your, you're right. You know, right.
74:05More or less like we're pricing the guys who run, you know, pretty efficiently, but it doesn't feel as efficient to me this year.
74:12I don't, I don't know why this is happening, but I am trying to take advantage of it.
74:18Yeah. Yeah. I mean like, and also I guess one more question about, cause this ties in the tight end as well,
74:25but I think the fear that I would have as like, if I were, you know, like I'll, I'll still say I'm
74:31a fair, I'm an amateur best ball bro at this point, but like, you know, this is maybe playing devil's advocate a
74:38little bit with the early round tight end and quarterback.
74:41So you get job. Let's just put Josh Allen and Brock Bowers together, right?
74:45So you can get Josh Allen in the third Brock Bowers in the second.
74:49If you fade those players and it sounds like you and I are on the same page with which one we would be fading way more, right?
74:57If you're fading those guys, do you have the fear of the nuclear game in the playoffs that just completely destroy you?
75:04Or are you simply okay with playing probability and just being logical and saying, look, if Josh Allen puts up a 50
75:11burger, in week 16 and I just don't have that, but my advance rates are really strong.
75:16That's just the way this game goes. That's basically where I'm at on Josh Allen.
75:20And it's a position where I can get a 30 burger from someone else.
75:25Yeah. I didn't have a ton of Kyle pits last year.
75:28He went nuts in week 16. I got teams through the finals without Kyle pits.
75:32Yeah. It's not the idea that like Josh Allen will be straight up necessary.
75:37I mean, maybe if he, if he puts up like 55 in the final, yeah, it's probably, you're probably going to have
75:43a Josh Allen team win it, but you know, but it feels like it's, it's, it's an easier hill to climb back
75:50from with a quarterback doing that than a, than a tight end doing that.
75:54Right. Like an early round. A hundred percent. A hundred percent.
75:58And it's, it's going to be hard. Like Josh Allen is, is fighting with one hand tied behind his back, maybe more
76:04than one hand from an, from an advanced rate perspective.
76:07Like, you know, the year I won BBM, Mike Evans dropped 50 and he basically just wasn't in the BBM final.
76:14Like there weren't enough teams in the BBM final to really take advantage of that.
76:18Now on the DK final, which is bigger, almost certain of Mike Evans team did win, but it's like, it's, you know,
76:25you got to think about like in some ways, like if I'm doing more higher stakes stuff where I'm expecting a smaller
76:31final, smaller pods to get through, I'd be even less interested in Josh Allen where it's like, there's a good chance that
76:38I could, Josh Allen could drop 50 and not be in the tournament I'm playing because he has such a different cost
76:45than the other quarterbacks with extremely similar profiles. It's not even like upside profiles like Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels.
76:50Like these are straight up rushing quarterbacks. Right. Right.
76:53Right. Like they, we're not, we're not drafting second year CJ Stroud.
76:57Yeah. Yeah. This isn't a projection. Yeah. This is just like these dudes, these dudes could like crush.
77:02They could easily, if, if Lamar Jackson outscores Josh Allen this year, like we're not, why would we be surprised?
77:08It'd be weird to be surprised. Yeah. You know?
77:11And so I just, the cost difference of Josh Allen to the rest of the group puts them at a major disadvantage
77:18from an advance rate perspective, even before you get into some of the, you know, this year's pricing around these.
77:24I mean, and look, wide receivers are still expensive.
77:26This is kind of going back to what I was saying before.
77:30Like, Hey, you know, it isn't 2020. It isn't 2021 where the wide receiver two is in the second round.
77:36Like there's six wide receivers off the board in the first 12 picks.
77:40Half the first half of the first round is wide receivers.
77:43Wide receivers do kind of dry up like they have over the, over the past couple of years.
77:49It is, it is easy to fall behind a receiver and spending a third round pick on, on Josh Allen, instead of
77:55getting, you know, or second round pick, instead of getting like AJ Brown or, you know, you could get George pickings or,
78:02you know, any of those receivers in the third Nico.
78:05Yeah. Like that, that's a huge opportunity cost and something that by round seven, I might be looking at, it's like Jalen
78:12hurts and AJ Brown or Josh Allen and DK Metcalf.
78:15Right. Right. Like, you know, it's, it's pretty different.
78:17Yeah. So that's where I'm, I'm thinking like, okay, Josh Allen, it's a variant game.
78:22Josh Allen might ultimately be the correct answer because he's, he's awesome.
78:26He is the best quarterback in the league. He has the best chance of going nuclear, but I want to play this
78:32season sharp and not play scared and do what I think the best things I can do for all these prices are.
78:39And if Josh Allen goes absolutely nuts, that's probably going to suck for me, but he's, he's so expensive that it's like, it's possible.
78:46It doesn't even suck for me. Yeah, no, no, exactly.
78:49Exactly. No, I'm, I'm a hundred percent with you before I let you go.
78:53Give me a, give me like a hot take, a truth serum take, if you will.
78:58You guys have, have done a lot of those in your day for this season.
79:03Yeah. So we've talked about on a ship chasing that maybe we do, you know, the kind of the cold sweat take the, for the, for the truth.
79:11Cause the, you know, it's, it should be something that like, you kind of don't want to happen.
79:17Um, yeah, I guess one thing I'm, I'm one thing that's on my mind is some of these second year running backs.
79:23Maybe mattering more than like, I'm thinking they do now.
79:26Like, you know, people are like, what about Jaden blue?
79:29Or, you know, are you interested in him kind of thing?
79:33Like Dylan Sampson, you know, some of these types of guys potentially emerging as surprising playmakers, and, and guys that do shake
79:39up like what I'm currently evaluating the landscape as like in a way, like tank big speed, like kind of sucked as
79:46a rookie, but like actually was pretty decent in a second season, you know, and, and paid off a late round ADP there.
79:53So it's, it's not really a super hot take, but one thing I do, I am, I am, I really do have
79:59my eye on the potential for running backs. I don't believe in to bubble up into roles or into opportunity or just starting to flash.
80:07Like maybe they've taken a step and, and they do ultimately shake up this landscape and that June doesn't define the entire 2026 drafting season.
80:15Yeah, that makes sense. That's a really good take, Pat.
80:18This was awesome. I always love chopping it up with you.
80:21Let everyone know where they can find you, what you're working on, the shows you're doing, all that stuff.
80:27Yeah. So you can check out on the legendary upside YouTube channel, doing a ton of content.
80:32And as well as on the, the podcast, wherever you get your podcast, legendary upside, drafting a lot of teams, doing weekly
80:38pods with Greg Branos of the coach speak index, Sam Sherman, who won BBM last year, doing a show called that's fair
80:45with him reference to our ADP chasing days. I'm also doing ADP chasing every week, every Tuesday evening, ship chasing on Wednesdays.
80:52I do a show on Tuesday where on the leg up channel, where I just take the top recommendation from the sidekick
80:58using the, the SIM driven player recommendations that I talked about before.
81:02I just take the top guy. So you can kind of see like what the Sims are viewing as, as pretty strong teams in this landscape.
81:10And then I'm doing a lot of writing and ranking over at legendary upside, legendary upside.com.
81:15You can get all that there, wrote up the rookie wide receivers.
81:18I'm writing up the rookie running backs and second year running backs for best ball as well.
81:23Matt Irby's got some great dynasty content on the site as well.
81:27And then if you want to check out the sidekick, it's at legendary upside.com slash sidekick.
81:32Awesome, man. Definitely check it out. You're pumping out some awesome content.
81:35And I, you know, I obviously am a big fan of, of you both, both on and off the field, Pat.
81:42I appreciate that. And likewise, make sure you check out my stuff over on late round.com.
81:47I do have an official release date for the draft guide.
81:50It's going to be July 10th this year. You know, it's been July 1st other years, but we had so much chaos
81:57with the website rebuild and just so much going on that, you know, we, we moved it back a little bit this
82:03year, but that really doesn't change that much because it's a season long guide and it's, you know, just a little bit later than normal.
82:11No, one's really drafting their season long leagues on July 3rd anyway, but July 10th is the release date.
82:16That's going to be a Friday. As always, if you pre-order now, you'll get it at a discount.
82:22And then every Friday through August, you will get an update to that guide.
82:26So check that out. Late round.com. Otherwise everyone. Thanks for tuning in.
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