1119: Mailbag - Chicago's Pass-Catchers, Going Against ADP, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
23 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 28, 2026
Published
Fri, August 28, 2026
24
Player insights
24
Players mentioned
Topics
Amon-Ra St. BrownBrandon AiyukCeeDee LambChristian McCaffreyColston LovelandDamien HarrisDeebo SamuelDrake LondonEzekiel ElliottGeorge KittleGeorge PickensJa'Marr ChaseJamison CrowderJordan Reed
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveValue25:44
JJ Zachariason identifies Amon-Ra St. Brown as one of the 'super stud' wide receivers being drafted among top running backs, representing a projected difference-maker.
Insight pageBrandon Aiyuk
PositiveProjection3:56
JJ Zachariason notes that the 2023 49ers were the only team in his sample of 11 teams with three pass-catchers drafted in the top 72 to see all three players exceed their ADP expectation.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveValue25:44
JJ Zachariason identifies CeeDee Lamb as one of the 'super stud' wide receivers being drafted among top running backs, representing a projected difference-maker.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveValue15:04
JJ Zachariason is still drafting Christian McCaffrey because his upside is 'clearly insane,' even though he has shifted his tiers to account for the value of elite wide receivers.
Insight pageColston Loveland
NegativeUsage5:58
JJ Zachariason discusses the Bears' pass-catchers, noting that while it is unlikely all three hit, it is possible for one (like Burden or Loveland) to be the odd man out.
Insight pageDamien Harris
NegativeBust11:47
JJ Zachariason distinguishes Rhamondre Stevenson from Damien Harris, noting Harris lacked pass-catching chops and is not comparable to Stevenson's skill set.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
PositiveProjection3:56
JJ Zachariason notes that the 2023 49ers were the only team in his sample of 11 teams with three pass-catchers drafted in the top 72 to see all three players exceed their ADP expectation.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveUsage18:27
JJ Zachariason highlights a massive split for Drake London, who has been significantly more productive (2.99 yards per route run) when Michael Penix is under center compared to when he is not.
Insight pageEzekiel Elliott
NegativeBust11:47
JJ Zachariason distinguishes Rhamondre Stevenson from late-career Ezekiel Elliott, arguing that Stevenson is a superior talent and not comparable to the 'current starter' archetypes that often fail.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
PositiveProjection3:56
JJ Zachariason notes that the 2023 49ers were the only team in his sample of 11 teams with three pass-catchers drafted in the top 72 to see all three players exceed their ADP expectation.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveValue15:27
JJ Zachariason notes that if George Pickens is available in the third round, he becomes a compelling target that might push drafters toward a wide receiver-heavy build.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveValue15:04
JJ Zachariason likes Ja'Marr Chase and Puka Nacua more than Christian McCaffrey in a vacuum, but notes that drafting them early can make building a balanced roster difficult due to the drop-off in running back talent.
Insight pageJamison Crowder
NegativeBust4:08
JJ Zachariason highlights the 2017 Washington team as a failure case where all three pass-catchers (Pryor, Reed, Crowder) were terrible versus ADP expectation.
Insight pageJordan Reed
NegativeBust4:08
JJ Zachariason highlights the 2017 Washington team as a failure case where all three pass-catchers (Pryor, Reed, Crowder) were terrible versus ADP expectation.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveBreakout7:36
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Ladd McConkey, citing the new Mike McDaniel-style offense in LA which uses more motion and fewer 11-personnel sets, creating a target funnel for the wide receivers on the field.
Insight pageLuther Burden
NegativeUsage5:58
JJ Zachariason discusses the Bears' pass-catchers, noting that while it is unlikely all three hit, it is possible for one (like Burden or Loveland) to be the odd man out.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
PositiveUsage18:27
JJ Zachariason notes that Drake London's fantasy production is tied to Michael Penix, as London's efficiency metrics are elite when Penix is the quarterback.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveValue15:27
JJ Zachariason notes that if Nico Collins is available in the third round, he becomes a compelling target that might push drafters toward a wide receiver-heavy build.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveValue15:04
JJ Zachariason likes Ja'Marr Chase and Puka Nacua more than Christian McCaffrey in a vacuum, but notes that drafting them early can make building a balanced roster difficult due to the drop-off in running back talent.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveProjection11:41
JJ Zachariason defends drafting Rhamondre Stevenson over younger backs, citing his high efficiency (1st in rushing yards over expected per rush and catch rate over expected) and established role in the New England offense.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeUsage6:45
JJ Zachariason notes that even if other Bears pass-catchers are preferred, Rome Odunze is not an automatic fade, as the offense could support two of the three.
Insight pageTerrelle Pryor
NegativeBust4:08
JJ Zachariason highlights the 2017 Washington team as a failure case where all three pass-catchers (Pryor, Reed, Crowder) were terrible versus ADP expectation, specifically noting Pryor.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
NegativeProjection12:01
JJ Zachariason acknowledges TreVeyon Henderson has an appealing profile but argues that Rhamondre Stevenson's proven efficiency and role make him a safer, more substantive bet.
Insight pageZack Moss
NegativeBust11:47
JJ Zachariason distinguishes Rhamondre Stevenson from players like Zach Moss, arguing that Stevenson is a superior talent and not comparable to the 'current starter' archetypes that often fail.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeartPodcasts. Guaranteed Human. Guaranteed Human. Guaranteed Human.
0:03Blahush. Blahush. Deal. I'll see you in the next episode.
0:07Posts... Raj. Mo.. Blahush. Foo, it's JJ! In the episode 1119 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:12Tuning in, thanks for. Before getting to the mailbag questions this week, I just want to send another reminder to check out the Late Round Draft Guide.
0:22There's over 270 pages of content that includes game theory, strategy, ways to spot breakouts and busts, players to target, players to avoid, and more.
0:30You get cheat sheets with the guide as well, and I'm now updating that guide twice a week up until football season.
0:37You get an update of the rankings on Wednesday, and then you get the update of the rankings again on Friday, alongside
0:45the players to target, players to avoid, and late round dart throws.
0:49So if you're listening to this mailbag episode on a Friday, which is when it releases, you should have that updated guide in your email inbox.
0:58You can learn more about it, check it out over on lateround.com.
1:02The first mailbag question this week is from Eric from the Members Hub on lateround.com.
1:07It says, Hey JJ, appreciate another great season of draft content.
1:10Love the work you've been doing with Market Score.
1:13Thank you. With three pass catchers from the Bears going so high, I'm curious that there have been similar seasons in the
1:21past where three pass catchers from the same team were all drafted in the top 70, and if those players all met or exceeded their ADP expectation.
1:30I'm wondering if this would provide meaningful context for understanding the range of outcomes with these Bears players.
1:36Thanks. So I dug into this. I looked at all teams since 2014 who had three pass catchers, some combination of tight
1:43end and wide receiver, drafted in the top 72 overall.
1:47That gives us through round six in a 12-team league.
1:50There have been 11 teams where that's been the case.
1:54Now we'll get to the results in a second.
1:57First, as a lot of you know, I often analyze through the lens of average draft position expectation.
2:03At every spot in a draft, at every ADP, there's some sort of expected points per game for that player.
2:09And that's all based on history. So a player drafted 50th overall might be expected to score 13 PPR points per game or something like that.
2:18If that player then scores 14 PPR points per game, then he exceeded that expectation by one PPR point per game.
2:25When we look at the 11 teams who met this criteria of having three pass catchers with high ADP, it's been rare
2:33for all three of those players to exceed expectation.
2:36In fact, it's only happened once. The 2023 49ers saw it happen with Debo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Ayuk.
2:42The good news is that six of the 11 teams saw two of the three players exceed expectation.
2:48Three of the 11 saw one, and then Washington in 2017 when they had Terrell Pryor, Jordan Reed, and Jamison Crowder.
2:55Talk about names that we haven't heard in a while.
2:59All three of those players got destroyed. They were terrible versus ADP expectation, especially Terrell Pryor.
3:04So you can interpret this a lot of different ways.
3:08On one hand, I do think odds are against seeing all three of these Bears pass catchers beat expectation.
3:14On the other hand, the most likely outcome here, just based on this small sample, is that two of the three do well against expectation.
3:22Keep in mind though too, this is against expectation.
3:25When ADP is higher, expectation is higher. It doesn't mean that all three of these players will just be unusable in fantasy
3:33football, or one of them will be unusable. For example, when we have tight ends in this sample, because some of these teams only have wide receivers.
3:4286% of the tight ends hit 10 or more PPR points per game.
3:46Almost 60% of the wide receivers get to 14 or more PPR points per game.
3:51I don't think this means that we have to fade one of the three pass catchers in this offense.
3:58Because remember, we're playing a game of probability. If you miss out on Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, and you think those
4:05are the two players who are likely to hit in this offense, it doesn't mean that Roma Dunze is an automatic fade.
4:13We know this can go in a lot of different directions.
4:16We know there's a chance that Loveland is the odd man out, or Burden's the odd man out.
4:22So yeah, I'd say the likely chance here, just based on our limited sample, is that two of the three end up as good picks.
4:31You hear that, it might freak you out a little bit.
4:35But keep in mind, players that aren't in this kind of situation, they're going to bust too.
4:40This next question is from the mailbag forum on Lateround.com.
4:44It's from Brian. It says, Hi, JJ. Big fan of your work.
4:48Thank you. A guest came on your show recently and stated that he wasn't leaving a draft without having someone from the Chargers on his roster.
4:56Curious for your thoughts on Lad McConkie. So I had talked a lot about Lad back in like May, especially in the late round show.
5:05I'm in on Lad. This Mike McDaniel offense is going to have so much more motion to get his guys open and
5:12in space compared to what we've seen over the last couple of years in LA.
5:17Over the last four, no team has had more motion at the line than the Miami Dolphins by a healthy margin too.
5:25Mike McDaniel also doesn't run a whole lot of 11 personnel.
5:28During his time in Miami, only the Ravens ran less out of 11 personnel than the Dolphins did.
5:34The Dolphins were tied with the 49ers. Fewer wide receivers on the field means more of a target funnel to the wide receivers who are on the field.
5:44Over the last two seasons, McConkie has a 2.52 yards per route run rate on routes with one or two wide receivers on the field.
5:52And his targets per route run on those types of plays is 26%.
5:57When there's been more than two wide receivers on the field, his yards per route run falls down to 1.83 from 2.52.
6:04His targets per route run goes from 26% to 21%.
6:07That's a pretty significant difference. This goes for a lot of us, but I think we're all pretty bullish on what this
6:15Chargers offense might be able to do this year.
6:18They could be a top 5 offense pretty easily.
6:21Lad McConkie is attached to a good quarterback. There's a lot to like about this situation, so yes, I've been drafting Lad McConkie.
6:29This next question is from Phil from the Members Hub.
6:32It says, on your recent show with Rich Rebar, you discussed drafting Ramondre Stevenson over Travion Henderson in certain circumstances.
6:39The main argument being, pass pro prowess and trust from the coaching staff.
6:43Hasn't that logic failed us time and time again with favoring a current starter over the more explosive younger player?
6:50I'm thinking of Zach Moss in the Bengals, late career Cowboy Zeke, Damian Harris ironically involving Ramondre.
6:56Can you drill down further into how the argument is different with Ramondre this season?
7:01I think the very clear difference here is that you're making the assumption that Ramondre Stevenson is a worse player than the guys that you just mentioned.
7:10Late career Ezekiel Elliott is not Ramondre Stevenson. Damian Harris, a guy with zero pass catching chops, is not Ramondre Stevenson.
7:17Zach Moss is not Ramondre Stevenson. Look, I was on the Henderson side last year.
7:22Trust me, I get the allure. But I also recognize that Stevenson played really well.
7:27He was better than I anticipated, especially during the second half of the season.
7:32I've said it before on the show, but Stevenson was first in the NFL last year and rushing yards over expected per rush.
7:39He was first among qualified running backs and catch rate over expected.
7:43And keep in mind, with some of the other examples that you're showing, we don't have a year-long sample of those players
7:51playing ahead of the more explosive player in their backfields.
7:54We do with New England. To the point where Henderson was irrelevant in the playoffs.
7:59And look, I'm not saying that Henderson won't matter at all on fantasy football.
8:04He will. There's still a lot to like about his profile.
8:08But I do think there's a lot more substance to this Ramondre over Travion thing than a lot of those instances in the past.
8:16Not only that, but with a lot of those instances, I was in on the more explosive back.
8:22The younger player. The seemingly upside player. I just think we can't deny what we saw last year.
8:28And honestly, what we're hearing out of New England this year.
8:32This has questions from Twitter. It's from at Jaysman1.
8:35It says, For teams drafting from 103 or 104 in PPR, do you consider heavy wide receiver builds as a viable approach?
8:42Often, the top running backs are gone by that 2-3 turn.
8:46So does pivoting make more sense? Either a wide receiver, wide receiver, or wide receiver, bowers build.
8:52Do we just let the tiers guide us? Thanks.
8:55So I did a Reddit AMA this week, and shout out to the Fantasy Football subreddit.
9:00But this was a question that got asked like eight different times.
9:04And it's a super, super valid question. In a vacuum, I like Jamar Chase and Puka Nakua more than Christian McCaffrey.
9:11But the way that most draft boards fall, if you get one of those wide receivers in the top half of the
9:18first round, you're going to miss out on that really good running back tier in round two.
9:24And then you may not love who you're staring at in round three, at running back.
9:30Especially if someone like Nico Collins falls, or someone like George Pickens is there.
9:34You might want to go wide receiver once again.
9:37I think that's the bigger deal here. In your question, you're only talking about the first two rounds.
9:43It's really about the first three rounds. So all this has made me shift my tiers a bit to putting CMC in that second tier.
9:52You have Gibbs and Bijon in tier one, but then if you'd rather go with a running back in the first round,
9:59knowing that you can get two very good wide receivers in rounds two and three, you may have to just take a chance on Christian McCaffrey.
10:08And if you don't want CMC, I get it.
10:11I'm still drafting him because the upside is clearly insane.
10:14But maybe you take on a Chase or a Puka and you immediately try to trade.
10:20I just know that once you get into round four, round five, running back just gets a lot more questionable.
10:26So it just depends on your comfort level. If you go with Chase or Puka, you should be aware that you're potentially
10:34going with a zero RB type build. That's fine.
10:37Just know what you're getting into and how to build that kind of team before it just completely surprises you.
10:44This next question is from Roger and it says, JJ, it sounds like Tua is having a terrible camp and won't be starting for the Falcons.
10:52Is there any concern at all for Drake London?
10:55Thanks. So I did talk about this a little bit on the late round show this week, but I want to dig
11:03into these splits a little bit more because they're kind of interesting.
11:07Drake London over the last two years, he's run 384 routes with Michael Penix under center.
11:12He's at 543 without Penix. On routes run with Michael Penix, London has an absurd 2.99 yards per route run rate.
11:19He has a 33.6% targets per route run rate, and he's had 0.63 PPR points per route run.
11:25For context, those numbers would only rank behind Puka Nakua when looking at the 2024 and 2025 seasons.
11:32On his routes without Michael Penix, we're looking at 1.92 yards per route run over a full yard lower, a 26% targets
11:39per route run rate, and 0.44 PPR points per route run.
11:43It's truly been night and day. I thought maybe Tua would be able to step in and at least be a distributor
11:50to where it wouldn't matter a ton, but it's very clear that we want Michael Penix for Drake London, based on how
11:57things have gone for Tua in camp. There's at least some upside here, and it looks like it's at least trending in that direction, thankfully.
12:06The last question this week is from Travis from the Members Hub, and it says, Maybe this is a question, maybe this is a vent.
12:14I'm not too sure, but I find the trends pre-fantasy season so perplexing.
12:19Wide receivers were the talk of the town over the last few years, but now it seems like everyone's talking about running back running back.
12:27People seem to just follow the results of the previous year, and think it translates to the next.
12:33I just don't understand why this occurs. My gut tells me this is all noise, but my mind says, are the masses right.
12:41P.S. With your help, I'm officially the back-to-back-to-back three-time champ of my home league, and I credit it to your info and guidance.
12:49Here's to becoming the four-time. So first off, congrats on the success, but that was not me.
12:54You're the one managing your team, but I do appreciate the love.
12:58Second, I wrote about this a bit in the draft guide this year, but running back ADP isn't so dramatically different this year compared to last year.
13:08I mean, there's a difference, but it may not be as big of a difference as you think.
13:14So much so that people are kind of losing their mind over it.
13:18Now, I did that portion of the guide back in early July, so I'll refresh that a little bit because obviously we're in later August.
13:26And I'll look at Fantasy Pro's consensus ADP from 2025 versus 2026.
13:30When looking at the top five rounds in the 12-team leagues to the top 60 picks, this year we're seeing 26 running
13:38backs get drafted versus 24 last year. So really not that big of a difference.
13:43Round one, six running backs were drafted both years.
13:46Round two, you have five last year, six this year.
13:49Round three, you had three last year and five this year.
13:53Round four, you had six last year, five this year.
13:56And then in round five, you had four both seasons.
14:00So you can kind of see that running back is going a little bit earlier, but it's just not this completely different environment.
14:07Now, there are pockets within those rounds where running backs did move.
14:11RB1 to RB5 is basically in the same spot year over year.
14:16But everything from like RB8 downward is a little bit earlier.
14:19How we define going a little bit earlier is up to interpretation though.
14:24RB1s are generally going two spots earlier than last year.
14:27RB2s, about five spots. Which is a little bit more meaningful.
14:31And overall, among RB1s and RB2s, we're talking like three spots earlier than last year on average.
14:36So yes, they are going earlier. Is it so crazy though that everyone's just reacting to what happened last season?
14:43I don't think so. I kind of think the market's being reasonable.
14:47We have another data point of the NFL trending into a more run-heavy league with heavy personnel.
14:53Which has helped flatten wide receiver while growing the depth at running back.
14:57That may make it seem like that we should be making sure we get elite wide receivers.
15:03Because they're big difference makers. If you get one of those elite wide outs, you're getting a big edge at the position.
15:10But I would argue that we're kind of doing that in drafts right now.
15:15RB1s, where we usually get the best production, like top 10, top 12 running max, they've usually separated themselves historically in terms of preseason expectation versus postseason result.
15:25Like it's really weird how it all formulates every year.
15:28But RB1s, like top 10, top 12 running max, they're usually the ones giving you the best edge.
15:34Once those difference makers are off the board, teams start drafting a lot of wide receivers.
15:39And obviously the super stud wide receivers, they're being drafted among those running backs.
15:44So we are elevating the projected difference makers at wide receiver.
15:48The Jamar Chase, Puka Nakua, CeeDee Lamb, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Aminra St.
15:52Brown. So like, I think a lot of that is logical and not just some response to what happened last year.
15:59Now, is there validity to the fact that running back has stayed pretty healthy?
16:04Yes, definitely. The thing is, even if we see more running back injuries, which I do think we're going to see, unfortunately,
16:11it doesn't take away from some of the research that we did at late round fantasy football this offseason.
16:18Like how satellite running backs are slowly dying. We're not seeing as many James Whites and Chris Thompsons anymore.
16:24And more of our traditional RB2 types in fantasy football, they're seeing more volume through the air to help give them better floors.
16:32I talked about that with Brandon Gadula on episode 1108.
16:35Even if more injuries occur, which by the way, like I said, I think it's probably going to happen.
16:42I do think that we'll still see better play from running backs based on some of that research.
16:48Beyond that though, wide receiver is just pretty flat.
16:51That's something that I talked about at the start of the offseason on the death of the fantasy football wide receiver too.
16:58I do think we're going to see a little bit more fluff at that position this year, just given where some of
17:06these guys moved in the sheer talent that we have at the position.
17:10But the true difference making alphas at wide receiver, they're going early, like I said.
17:15And when that next tier is deep, it means that you can take a chance on a running back early while still
17:22getting good talent at wide receiver after doing so.
17:26Look, in the end, fading market sentiment is usually a good strategy in fantasy football.
17:31The market makes assumptions. We should probably question those assumptions because we usually think that we know way more than we actually do.
17:38In this case, I do think that the market's kind of overrating some specific running backs in the first five rounds, sure.
17:46But that's no different than any other year. There are definitely pockets where I'd rather take a chance at a wide receiver
17:53than a running back over the first five rounds of a draft.
17:57But I don't think this is a really weird response to another season of run-heavy, heavy personnel offenses.
18:03I think the market's actually doing what it should be doing.
18:07And honestly, I think the way that drafts are moving, the way that they're set up, they're allowing us to go in
18:14a lot of different directions with our builds. So I guess to answer your question more directly, I do not think a
18:22running back, running back start is totally necessary no matter what.
18:25I do think there are parts of your draft where it's a pretty good look though, like the back half of round one.
18:33That one-two turn area has some serious difference-making backs.
18:36And then you can easily loop around the next three rounds and get awesome wide receivers.
18:42We also have to be truthful here and that ADP matters for how we draft, even if we disagree with ADP.
18:49If the market's being completely irrational, we can't just ignore that.
18:52We can't just do the opposite of that because then we can run out of certain positions.
18:58Like if you think the market is drafting running backs too early, but your draft, your league mates just keep drafting running
19:06backs over and over and over again, at some point you have to react to what the market is doing.
19:12You can't just ignore it. And the way that things are set up right now, like I said, there are pockets of
19:20your draft where it does make sense to go running back, running back, just based on what ADP is showing and based on how the market is behaving.
19:29But then, like I said earlier, there are spots in the draft where zero RB makes plenty of sense.
19:36I think it's uncomfortable, but it wouldn't shock me at all if there are some leagues out there this year where zero RB does really, really well.
19:45I think that's why I don't see ADP the same way that others are seeing it this year.
19:51The way ADP falls, there are actually a ton of different ways to approach drafts this year.
19:56You can kind of choose your own adventure based on your league settings and what you're comfortable with.
20:02And honestly, that's the way it should be. That's it for today's show though.
20:07Thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are
20:15by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
20:18And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
20:23Early next week, Tuesday's episode, it's going to be the Bold Predictions episode.
20:27People love this thing every single year and I've been hearing from you guys as to when that thing is going to be published.
20:35It's going to be published on Tuesday. But here's the catch.
20:39There are additional Bold Predictions via the Late Round newsletter.
20:43And that's going to be released on Wednesday next week.
20:46If you're not subscribed to the newsletter, do it right now.
20:50Go to Lateround.com, click newsletter, and just submit your email address.
20:53You're going to want to do that for the season anyway.
20:57Again, Lateround.com, just click newsletter. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for listening this week.
21:01Greatly appreciate it. Crush your drafts this weekend and I'll catch you next week.
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