Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Is Training Camp News Overrated?
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 5, 2026
Published
Wed, August 5, 2026
43
Player insights
33
Players mentioned
Topics
Malik NabersKeenan AllenChris OlaveJosh AllenRicky PearsallTrey McBrideA.J. BrownBrock BowersBucky IrvingChris GodwinChuba HubbardColston LovelandD.J. MooreDallas Goedert
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeUsage20:52
JJ Zachariason notes he has less A.J. Brown exposure in round two compared to his previous heavy exposure in round three.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveValue58:11
JJ Zachariason explicitly states he wants to be overweight on Brock Bowers in drafts this year, identifying him as a preferred target in the second round.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveValue25:16
JJ Zachariason notes he has been drafting Bucky Irving (referred to as 'Basial Tootin') in the 6th round, and while his ADP has risen, he remains a target for portfolio balance.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveProjection61:01
JJ Zachariason predicts that Chris Godwin will lead the league in receptions this season, citing a bounce-back for the Buccaneers' offense and Baker Mayfield's motivation as key factors.
Insight pageChris Olave
NegativeValue12:13
JJ Zachariason has lower exposure to Chris Olave because he views the third and fourth-round wide receiver tier as flat, preferring to reach for players like Zay Flowers or Jalen Waddle instead.
Insight pagePositiveValue23:49
JJ Zachariason mentions Chris Olave as a player he is considering increasing his exposure to, noting that the mid-round wide receiver tier is relatively flat.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeValue26:03
JJ Zachariason compares David Montgomery to Chuba Hubbard's situation last year, noting that Montgomery is a more established receiver and faces less competition for touches than Hubbard did.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveValue52:29
JJ Zachariason is high on Colston Loveland's talent but notes his rising ADP makes him less of a value than earlier in the offseason. He prefers Loveland over Trey McBride at their respective costs.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeProjection24:26
JJ Zachariason notes DJ Moore has been inefficient per route run over the last two seasons, creating risk, though he still seeks some exposure due to the potential for a good season.
Insight pageDallas Goedert
PositiveValue55:52
JJ Zachariason identifies Dallas Goedert as a strong value pick, noting he averages over 2.9 yards per route run when AJ Brown is off the field. He is recommended as a solid TE1 for 3-4 tight end builds, benefiting from the expectation that the Eagles' offense will be significantly more efficient this season.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveUsage24:01
JJ Zachariason is higher on David Montgomery than season-long platforms, noting he is not a 'dead zone' bust candidate like others because he has a proven receiving floor and is not being faded.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeBust58:38
JJ Zachariason is fading Devon Achane in best ball and season-long formats due to systemic concerns, including uncertain quarterback play, a new play-caller, and a first-time head coach. He notes that while Achane is talented, the current draft cost makes him a fade.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
NegativeValue20:29
JJ Zachariason notes he held a decent amount of Deebo Samuel exposure but emphasizes that success is not guaranteed for any player, regardless of market sentiment.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
NegativeUsage21:45
JJ Zachariason drafted Devonta Smith in the third round (308) in a recent best ball draft.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeUsage21:50
JJ Zachariason drafted Drake Maye as part of a quarterback stack in a recent best ball draft.
Insight pageFernando Mendoza
NegativeUsage22:13
JJ Zachariason drafted Fernando Mendoza in the 17th round as a differentiator, despite already having two quarterbacks.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
NegativeBust59:35
JJ Zachariason is nervous about George Pickens at his current ADP, noting that second wide receivers in an offense rarely pay off when drafted at the 2-3 turn. He argues that while Pickens has a high ceiling, the current premium cost is difficult to justify compared to previous years.
Insight pageIsiah Pacheco
NegativeValue35:06
JJ Zachariason notes that Jacob Cowing is currently being drafted in the 140s range alongside players like Isaiah Pacheco and Woody Marks, making him a viable pick if the price remains stable.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
NegativeUsage1:44
JJ Zachariason notes that his three-year-old son is currently the only person on Earth looking up to JJ McCarthy after seeing him on Vikings highlights.
Insight pageJacob Cowing
NegativeBreakout31:16
Matthew Betts notes that Jacob Cowing (referred to as 'design Stribling') has seen significant buzz and is rising up draft boards following the Pearsall injury, though Betts is cautious about chasing him too high.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeUsage21:50
JJ Zachariason drafted Jalen Hurts in the seventh round of a recent best ball draft.
Insight pageJalen Nailor
NegativeUsage22:03
JJ Zachariason holds approximately 6-9% exposure to Jalen Nailor in his best ball portfolio.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeValue24:22
JJ Zachariason is concerned about the opportunity cost of drafting Josh Allen at his current ADP, despite acknowledging he is a player he needs to increase exposure to for portfolio balance.
Insight pageNegativeValue50:07
JJ Zachariason is selective with Josh Allen, avoiding him at the 2-3 turn but finding value if he falls to the late third or fourth round. He acknowledges Allen's elite production and Week 17 matchup upside but is wary of the cost.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
PositiveValue28:35
JJ Zachariason has significant exposure to Keenan Allen, anticipating a potential ADP rise if he signs with a team like the Colts.
Insight pagePositiveValue34:41
JJ Zachariason uses Keenan Allen's situation last year as an example of why it is acceptable to 'eat the CLV' and draft a player even if you missed the optimal price, provided they continue to outperform their ADP.
Insight pagePositiveValue47:01
JJ Zachariason is targeting Keenan Allen in late rounds, envisioning a scenario where he signs with the Colts and provides closing line value. He believes Allen's talent was underrated last season.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue57:42
JJ Zachariason is actively targeting Kenneth Walker III in drafts, citing the Chiefs' shift away from bargain-shopping at running back as a signal for the offense's potential. He views Walker as a key player to be overweight on in the second round.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
NegativeBust18:27
JJ Zachariason notes that having four Kyle Pitts teams in his portfolio has been a difficult hurdle to overcome in best ball, implying poor performance relative to his draft cost.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveValue7:25
JJ Zachariason remains very high on Luther Burden, noting that he might be one of the only people who likes him as much as Ben Johnson does.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveUsage8:33
JJ Zachariason notes that Malik Nabers is showing positive signs of recovery from his knee injury in video footage, leading to a rise in his ADP.
Insight pagePositiveValue15:06
JJ Zachariason now recommends drafting Malik Nabers in the third round, noting that even if his ADP has risen, he remains a high-upside target who could dominate.
Insight pagePositiveProjection19:36
JJ Zachariason acknowledges Malik Nabers has the potential to go 'absolutely bonkers' in playoff weeks and produce a historic wide receiver season, though he remains cautious about his Week 1 readiness.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout37:08
JJ Zachariason notes a shift from negative offseason news to positive reports, with Nabers now expected to be ready for Week 1. While a 3-4 week ramp-up is possible, Nabers remains a high-upside target in the 4th-5th round range, though his rising ADP into the second round makes him a difficult chase.
Insight pagePositiveValue60:49
JJ Zachariason suggests that Malik Nabers is a more attractive draft option than George Pickens when both are available in the same range.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
NegativeUsage24:12
JJ Zachariason expresses concern regarding Quinchon Judkins' potential receiving work and the overall offensive outlook for the Browns, leading to lower exposure in his portfolio.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
NegativeInjury8:43
Ricky Pearsall is officially done for the year due to injury, which JJ Zachariason acknowledges as a miss in his personal portfolio.
Insight pageNegativeInjury31:06
Matthew Betts and JJ Zachariason discuss the impact of Ricky Pearsall being officially out for the year, noting it creates a 'perfect storm' for other 49ers receivers to rise in ADP.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
NegativeDepth Chart26:15
JJ Zachariason notes he was more concerned about Rico Dowdle's threat to Chuba Hubbard last year than he is about Woody Marks' threat to David Montgomery this season.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveUsage56:43
JJ Zachariason highlights Saquon Barkley's high usage, noting he had 14 goal-line rushes last year despite scoring only once within the five-yard line. He expects the Eagles' offense to be a top-five unit with a healthier offensive line, making Barkley a player he is overweight on in drafts.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue24:16
JJ Zachariason holds 18% exposure to Stefon Diggs, viewing him as a potential value if he signs with a team like Washington and his ADP rises.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveValue23:49
JJ Zachariason mentions Trey McBride as a player he is considering increasing his exposure to, noting that the mid-round tier is relatively flat.
Insight pageNegativeValue53:33
JJ Zachariason is mixing in more Trey McBride now that his ADP has fallen to the mid-to-late third round. While he prefers Loveland at cost, he warns against over-regressing McBride, who remains a solid pick at the right price.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:23So Rich, my son's three and a half, and he's getting a little bit interested in watching football, which is great.
0:28So you know, my wife and I, we alternate bedtimes every night with my daughter one night, then my son the next night, etc.
0:35So when I go up with him for nighttime, recently we've been opening up my phone and watching football highlights, which is amazing for me.
0:42It's a great bonding experience. And as we watch these highlights, he sits there and he just said, he points at it
0:48and he will, he'll say things like that me, that me when talking about like a wide receiver, you know, making a
0:54great catch or something and like a running back running down the field.
0:57Well, yesterday, last night, we were sitting there, I opened up my phone and there were Minnesota Vikings highlights playing on YouTube that we were watching.
1:04And JJ McCarthy popped up on the screen and my son goes, that me, that me.
1:08And I think he's the only person right now on planet Earth who's actually looking up to JJ McCarthy.
1:14I'm JJ. And over the last couple of years, I've been doing everything I can to be a best ball bro.
1:19And last season, things finally fell into place. I got 40th in the DraftKings Millie contest, taking home $20,000.
1:24Maybe I became a best ball bro, but I'm still looking to learn more about this game.
1:29And I still want others to come on this ride with me.
1:32So even if you consider me a best ball bro, this could be your year.
1:36This could be the year that you officially become a best ball bro.
1:40This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball, and we've got a can't
1:46miss offer on their biggest best ball contest ever.
1:48$20 million in total prizes. It's draft one, get one.
1:51Draft your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week, all season long.
1:56Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
2:00Enter a lineup in the $20 million best ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
2:06Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
2:09The crown is yours. Welcome into another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro.
2:13I'm JJ Zacharyarysen, joined as always by Rich Ryan.
2:15Rich, what's going on, man? Doing great, man. The season draws closer and closer.
2:19I've got my big East Coast draft in three weeks.
2:22I get to go play two of the worst rounds of golf that you've ever seen in your entire life the days prior.
2:28So looking forward to getting out and just, yeah, just excited about all the content and creeping closer to.
2:33We have the Hall of Fame game in a couple of days, JJ, tomorrow.
2:37I know. I know. It's really what's throwing me off is that the season starts later this year, just given the schedule
2:43for like Labor Day, like when Labor Day lands and stuff like that.
2:46And so it's throwing me off because like I usually do my regressions candidates episode in late July, but it was in early August this year.
2:53Everything's like a week later just because of the timing of everything.
2:57But I'm super excited for this time of year.
2:59I have so many drafts lined up. You know, I did the pros versus Joes draft this week that Fantasy Mojo puts together.
3:05It's basically a bunch of pros, if you will, you know, myself and others who do this as their job, be touts, be fantasy analysts.
3:12And then we play against Joes. But the Joes are not just like someone that you find off the street.
3:18They're professional. They're people who play a whole lot of like high stakes fantasy football.
3:22And it's a best ball league. And that's always sort of like, you know, you have Scott Fishbowl and then pros versus Joes.
3:28They're both kind of like unofficial kickoffs for me of like draft draft season.
3:32But obviously, we've been doing best ball stuff for months at this point.
3:35You know, we've been I actually told I've been going to physical therapy.
3:39I had a couple sessions for something with my back.
3:41And I was talking to my physical therapist about this.
3:44And he was like, so like how many teams do you draft?
3:47And I'm like, you don't you don't want it because he's clearly not like a degen when it comes to fantasy football.
3:53And I was like, I think I've drafted close to like 400 or so.
3:57And he's like, what? Like, it's like it's like not even a number.
4:01Like, he probably thought I was going to say like 10, you know, and then you say 400.
4:06But then you have to explain best ball. And, you know, I've been drafting since the Super Bowl ended, all that kind of stuff.
4:12So, yeah, man, I love this time of year.
4:15And I'm excited to sort of dig into some topics today before we get to the guests, because we have some movement.
4:21We have some things changing in the fantasy football world right now.
4:24We do. I just want to say it was really nice of you to get the regression episode over to Ben Johnson before you posted it.
4:31On Tuesday. Yes. Yes. I heard him talk about I mean, he's not wrong.
4:35He's he's very correct that there's a lot of, you know, turnover luck and such.
4:39It's going on with that Bears team that, you know, there is regression coming.
4:43But I am still, as people know, very, very in on on Ben Johnson's son, Luther Burden, the way that he's talking about Burden.
4:49I've been into I, I think I might be one of the only people on Earth that likes Luther Burden as much
4:55as Ben Johnson does at this point. All right.
4:57What I wanted to do before we get to the guest is talk about some of the big items.
5:03Now, I talked about these items with the guests, so I don't want to get you know, I don't want to be
5:09too repetitive with what I talked about, you know, in that segment.
5:12But there's obviously two really big things that have gone on this week, one being Malik neighbors and the fact that we
5:18have video proof that he is seemingly cutting pretty well and doing pretty well with that knee.
5:22But then the other news being that Ricky Pearsall is officially done for the year.
5:27He's not going to be playing. And, you know, in the name of transparency, I want to talk about both of these
5:33items because I screwed up both of them with my with my portfolio.
5:36Like I was drafting Pearsall. I think I was at like screw up the Pearsall one, though.
5:41Like, how can we, you know, I mean, I don't know.
5:44You know, you look at social media and people are indirectly indirectly calling me a moron for how could you pass?
5:49You know, it's always after the injury happens. How could you possibly be buying into Ricky Pearsall?
5:54Same people who faded Christian McCaffrey last year saying that, you know what I mean?
5:58Like, that's the thing that that, you know, if anyone's like victory lapping an injury or what have you.
6:03And I get that there's a player like Pearsall might seem like he's more injury prone.
6:08But people, you know, players are injury prone until they're not.
6:11Chris Alave was injury prone until last year. You know, he had the concussion issues and such.
6:15You know, Chris McCaffrey was quite literally league winner.
6:18Helped me win, you know, 40th place in the Millie last year.
6:21If I were to fade him because of the potential injury issues, then I obviously wouldn't have had that success.
6:26So, yes. Now, I understand that I'm talking to people who just yell on social media when I say that.
6:32But I do think that it sucks, right? And I don't do this show to simply say everything went right.
6:37I'm a genius. Look at me. I do this show because we go through ups and downs as a team, right?
6:43Where like we're all going through this together, not in a really crazy way.
6:47Like this is such a tough journey. I just mean we're going through this as in this isn't entertainment.
6:52This is a hobby of ours. And I think that it's important for listeners and watchers to understand that I miss things too a lot.
6:59I get the wrong reads on the market all the time.
7:02And one of those wrong reads was Malik Neighbors where I was kind of waiting for him to go on pup.
7:07I thought it was going to happen and then it didn't.
7:10And I was hoping that I would get a little bit more like I thought he could be like a fifth round pick at some point.
7:17And so I didn't get enough Neighbors. Now, that's that's the truthful response to this is that I am sitting here right
7:23now having not gotten enough of that like fourth round value with Malik Neighbors.
7:27And now he's obviously risen in ADP. I do want to say, though, we've been talking all summer about the flatness of
7:33round three and round four and drafts like when you like I don't have much Chris Alave, for instance, right now, because
7:39I don't see that much of a difference between Chris Alave and some of the fourth round wide receivers like a Jalen
7:45Waddle or something in terms of like ceiling outcomes and and where their seasons might go.
7:49And I love Chris Alave as a player. I'm just trying to be as level headed as I can from a projection standpoint or like Zay Flowers.
7:57Right. And so I haven't gotten as much like Chris Alave because I just think that there's a flatness to that tier in general.
8:03And oftentimes, like I will reach for a Zay, a Waddle and a Buka, whoever, whatever the case may be.
8:09And I'm only going to get into Alave when there's that falling value with him.
8:13So naturally, my exposure is just lower for a player like that.
8:16So my mentality, if I'm being completely honest with you guys, with the pretty much neighbors fade up until recently was that
8:22if we are saying that this is flat and if something positive happens with neighbors, whereas ADP does rise, I can then
8:28be reactionary to that news and say, OK, well, if I know the opportunity cost isn't that much different from a round
8:34four to a round three pick, I'll just get him if he if he's in round three.
8:39And the thing that I've really noticed through doing this, like best ball bro journey is that, yeah, players are going to
8:45be pushed up draft boards, of course, like whenever positive news happens.
8:48You know, Debo Samuel is now an 11th round pick, whatever, you know, whatever the case may be.
8:53But it doesn't happen immediately all the time in every draft that you do because people are still going to be chained
8:59to what that ADP is on the platform. Right.
9:01And so with neighbors, it's going to take a little bit of time and it has taken time.
9:06For him to get to where I think he should probably be valued, which at this point, probably anywhere in round three, it's fine to get neighbors.
9:13And I've been scooping them up in round three.
9:16And so as a result of that, I'm actually at like almost 7 percent, six to seven percent with neighbors in the million.
9:22This is through 104 is drafts at this point.
9:25You know, like the other day, got him at 306, got him at 307 in one draft.
9:29Now, I know I think that in drafts, if you're at the two spot, you can get them at 211 if you want to.
9:36If you want to up the exposure a little bit and then get the falling wide receiver value that you don't get in round three.
9:42If you just want to up that exposure from a leak neighbors.
9:46So in hindsight, I'm not that mad about the process.
9:48Now, the result sucks because, of course, I would rather have a fourth round neighbors than a late second or early third or mid third round neighbors.
9:56Don't get me wrong. And the funny thing is, at this point, I still have favorable CLV because of where his ADP is now rising to, you know.
10:03So I think the reactionary piece and how I've reacted was was proper and smart and sharp.
10:08But, you know, it obviously burned me to not get him in the first place as much as I should have.
10:14And there's other people out there, other analysts who I respect, even like Brandon Godula, who Godula was super heavy neighbors.
10:19And I just was playing it a little bit safer because I just saw that flatness to that tier.
10:25It could burn me. And I do think that if you, you know, if I were to finish this off with one
10:31take for people who might have not drafted neighbors, I don't think that it's that big of a deal if you still
10:37draft him in like late round two or something like that right now today.
10:40Because if he's the guy, he's the guy. If he's the guy that you need, it doesn't really make a difference that
10:46half round to full round and ADP equity, you know, in the end.
10:50Like if he's the dude that you need, he's going to dominate and your team is going to be good no matter what.
10:56Yeah. And as a first round player last year, that's well within the realm of the range of outcomes if he is reasonably healthy to me.
11:03So the World Series Poker final table is going on right now.
11:06It started last night. It continues on ESPN throughout this week.
11:09And to me, a lot of this feels like just how you are approaching best ball this summer, right?
11:15If you're somebody who's playing a very high volume across a bunch of tournaments, then I think having a more measured approach like you had just makes sense.
11:22It's like the guys who have middling or high stacks at this final table where there's $10 million for first.
11:28And the value of their chips is such that going out in ninth place when you have a medium to high stack is an absolute disaster.
11:35So the one thing you must avoid is getting eliminated early.
11:38So preserving your stack and playing basically, you know, small ball, make sure that you're at weight, at market, not doing anything crazy is fine.
11:44But if you're playing small volume, like I'm also overweight on my very few, like two dozen or so drafts on neighbors
11:50because I'm seeing myself as the short stack. I literally have nothing to lose.
11:54So when there's somebody who's upside to me was such that they have a first round talents, I'm willing to assume more risk.
12:00But if you have an extremely wide portfolio with tons of entries, right?
12:04Assuming that level of risk with still a round four pick, right?
12:07This is very valuable is quite precarious. So I think having a large amount and just being at market and playing neighbor safe was fine.
12:14Like you said, you were able, the best thing about this is we pivot quickly, right?
12:18We react to news. August is a time, guys, where like things are going to happen very fast this month and the
12:24market is going to move just as swiftly. So you just have to be ready to react and try to react in the correct manner.
12:31Yeah, I also have been toying with the idea and like thinking about it more like shower thought type stuff.
12:37But like this notion that I think is popular out there that best ball has your best ball lineup has to be perfect in order to win.
12:44Right. Right. Where like, you know, today, for instance, I was doing a live stream draft, which you guys can check out over on the YouTube channel.
12:51But I was doing a draft where I took I took A.J.
12:55Brown in round two. I don't have a ton of round two A.J.
12:58Brown because I got a lot of my exposure for him in round three whenever before he moved to New England.
13:04But, you know, I got A.J. Brown in round two and then I got Devante Smith in round three.
13:09He fell to like the 308. And I then got Drake May and Jalen Hurts.
13:13Jalen Hurts fell to the like later seventh area.
13:15Right. So I have my two quarterbacks where I'm like, I'm done.
13:19I'm good. I don't I don't need to get another quarterback later in the draft.
13:23I got a Jalen Naylor share share, which is not a super, you know, it's not like an uncommon thing.
13:28I think I'm about maybe like six to nine percent or something like that with with Naylor.
13:33And so I drafted Naylor and then Fernando Mendoza went in the late 17th round of this draft.
13:38To me, I picked him. Right. And a lot of you know, there was there were some people that were chiming in
13:44being like, you didn't need another quarterback because you had Drake May and Jalen Hurts.
13:48And my response, you know, like someone said, you know, Mendoza is never going to hit your lineup when you have Drake May and Jalen Hurts.
13:55And my response was, I don't think that's a necessarily true statement that you have to make, even if you're making the
14:01assumption that things go in a really good direction for this lineup, which is what you should generally be doing, you know, with your your best ball lineups.
14:08Because there can still be a two or three week period where one of those guys misses time or there could just
14:14be a week where they both just have dud weeks and maybe later in the season.
14:19Mendoza has a good one or in the fantasy playoffs.
14:21If this does advance, you have another stack that could potentially, you know, do something for your team, you know, when it matters most.
14:28And it's a differentiator because a lot of people would be stopping at Jalen Hurts and Drake May in their in their lineup.
14:34Right. And so I think that, like, I've seen it, too, where it's like, who's going to be the guy that you need this year?
14:41And I know that it's like an easy clickbait type thing and it's like a meme worthy thing.
14:46And like, I understand all that. This is supposed to be fun in the end.
14:50But I also think that it dumbs things down a lot where there are people who make this assumption that if you
14:56don't have neighbors or if you didn't draft, because like, look, if Stefan Diggs signs with Washington tomorrow, you know, like he's going to be what?
15:03Like an eighth round pick and best ball, like he's going to gradually lead his way up there.
15:08Right. And he's like a 12th or 13th rounder right now.
15:11And so if you want to get CLV, you get CLV on Stefan Diggs right now and just draft him.
15:16You know, I'm at like 18 percent Stefan Diggs.
15:19I'm waiting patiently. I need it to happen at this point because of the negative stuff that's gone on with me with
15:25like Ricky Pearsall and having like 11 percent Pearsall.
15:27But regardless of that, I don't think that if you faded Stefan Diggs, you're absolute dust.
15:32And the way that people talk about best ball is that you are absolute dust if you didn't have that player in that moment.
15:38You know, even like if you drafted Ricky Pearsall, I don't think those lineups are dead.
15:42It's a freaking 10th round pick. You know, it's not it's not going to sink your team.
15:47I do genuinely think that having gone through because like year one of doing becoming a best ball bro didn't have a
15:53very good advance rate when way to zero RB.
15:55You know, I went away from like what I know from a fantasy football analyst perspective.
16:00And I wanted to change that last year. And so last year I did change it and I really thought more deeply
16:06about it instead of being like robotic about my team builds and stuff had a crazy good advance rate.
16:11And when you have these teams in the playoffs and you're seeing them fall one by one and you're seeing how things
16:17sort of like work out, you realize that it's really not about perfection in the end.
16:21Right. It is about there's some luck involved. And to me, it's about smart team construction and good correlation for when those games do blow up.
16:28I had a San Francisco stack that was really good during the playoffs.
16:32I had, you know, a Derek Henry at the right time and Kyle Pitts at the right time.
16:37And that was a very fortunate thing to have, you know?
16:40And so I think we got to get out of our head that like you're screwed if you because like you could get neighbors in round two.
16:47And yes, I would much rather have neighbors in round four.
16:50But what happens if one of those round four wide receivers is the actual guy that you need this year?
16:55And when you were drafting Malik neighbors in round four, you were missing out on Jalen Waddle, Luther Burden and all these
17:01other guys who are actually better values at that point.
17:04You have no idea given when these guys actually hit and actually produce.
17:08So my overall stance on the CLV stuff is like, of course, I want good CLV.
17:12Of course, I want to draft a guy who goes round eight.
17:15You know, I have a ton of Keenan Allen right now.
17:18I think if Keenan Allen signs with the Colts tomorrow, he's like, you know, a 13th round pick all of a sudden
17:24after being a 19th, 20th round pick. And of course, I want that value in my portfolio.
17:29But I'm also trying to stay level headed that, yes, I have 17, 16 percent Stefan Diggs, whatever the number is right now.
17:35And if he rises in ADP to the eighth round after signing with Washington, let's say that's great for my portfolio.
17:41But I'm not fooling myself to think that that like that is the the reason I'm going to have success or not success in best ball this year.
17:48Yeah, it's always going to be hard for me to buy into just get the guys as because we don't have any control over that.
17:55We don't have any control over Kyle Pitts going absolutely berserk when it matters.
17:59Right. Last year. Having a literal historic game for tight ends.
18:02Like we have no control over that. We do have control over the construction of our roster, our game stacks, our team
18:08stacks and the allocation of the roster spots. That is what we control.
18:12And that's what we should focus on. The getting the guys bit is just it's just variance at the end of the day.
18:18Yeah. Yeah. And like, I don't know, man. I do really think that because there were teams last year that I had
18:24in the semis that were really well constructed, really, really strong.
18:27And then it's like, oh, I had a pod with four Kyle Pitts teams.
18:31And it's like it's just really hard to overcome that.
18:33And I'm not saying that best ball is then all luck.
18:36I don't think that's the case at all. Like, no, you the way that I the way that I often view, you
18:42know, luck versus skill in these kinds of games is like, OK, let's let's do a draft against my eight year old daughter.
18:49You know, I would absolutely annihilate my daughter at fantasy football, you know, so there's clearly a skill element involved.
18:54You I mean, and trust me, there's people that are drafting in every other draft that I do in the middle who are drafting like my daughter would.
19:02You know, they're just they're just picking their the prettiest colors or something.
19:05And so so like this is certainly like something that like you're going to face competition that's weaker and don't that doesn't understand correlation.
19:12You know, doesn't understand team roster construction and how to weigh.
19:15You know, if you go running back early, you shouldn't be going running back late as much or you don't need as
19:21many running backs, all that kind of stuff. There are so many ways to find edges.
19:25The bottom line, though, is that you got to get in my opinion, people need to get out of their head like
19:31this single guy is going to be the reason that we either win or lose in best ball.
19:36Now, could Malik neighbors go absolutely bonkers in the playoff weeks and have like the greatest wide receiver season of all time?
19:42Yes. Yeah, I recognize that. But I'm also looking at just like what's realistic here.
19:46We don't even know if he's going to be ready week one yet.
19:49We have no idea, you know, and so I'm just trying to be as level headed as I possibly can.
19:55You know, maybe some of its cope for sure.
19:57You know, it's like I'm trying to you know, I'm a little bit upset that I had like very little neighbors up until that point.
20:04But now now that I like reacted the way that I did and I'm closer to market with neighbors, I feel like
20:10I can more objectively even speak on this. I'm above more.
20:13I have nine and a half in my overall portfolio.
20:16I'm only talking about the milli whenever I talk about the the neighbors equity and shares and stuff.
20:21So, yeah, I mean, that's my that's my overall thought.
20:23I know that people are going to come at me with with some sort of like cope type take with this.
20:29But I promise you, like I had a decent amount of like Debo still or like, you know, I went when dig signs.
20:35I have but I'm I still I'm not going to like sit there and be like, you guys are idiots for for not because it could go south.
20:43Like it's it's not a given that like things are going to definitely work out for these players.
20:48And quickly circle back to your Mendoza pick. And it's so funny coming from you and what a lot of people perceive about you.
20:54But there is a lot of art in addition to the science when it comes to these drafts.
20:59And sometimes reading the room and being creative is just as important.
21:02And studying insolvers are great. But those tools also anticipate the rest of your room kind of acting in the same way.
21:08They can't regress for human nature in some of these instances.
21:11So it's very important upon you to take the wheel yourself sometimes and do some creative stuff.
21:16Yeah. Yeah. I mean, speaking of taking the wheel, sometimes I got to do that with some of my exposure to players
21:22because I only have like 45 milli drafts left, I want to say.
21:26And the solvers interface is really nice because you can just upload a CSV of that you download on DraftKings.
21:31You can upload it to the solver and you can see your team builds like the teams that have the best CLV
21:37at this point in time based on ADP. You can see, you know, individual player exposures, etc.
21:42And when I and they also have a nice like draft board.
21:45And I know that I seem like I'm selling this.
21:48I use it daily. Okay. I'm just the period.
21:50I mean, you guys can check it out yourselves.
21:52But I use the solver. There's a link in the most recent YouTube video for the solver, too, if you guys want
21:58to want to click through that because we are working with them this year.
22:02But regardless, I'm looking at the solver. There are some players I need to specifically beef up my exposure to.
22:08And that's this is the time of year where I will focus on that a little bit more.
22:13I have very little Quinchon Judkins and DJ Moore.
22:15I have not a lot of Josh Allen, David Montgomery, who I'm not even low on.
22:19It's just that I have gone after like Basial Tootin in that range.
22:23And then one of the wide receivers that I just like that falls maybe a little bit more Trey McBride and Alave.
22:29Like I said, I could see myself upping that a little bit.
22:32But I think that that the first four Judkins, DJ Moore, David Montgomery, Josh Allen, I need to get.
22:37I want to have a nice blanket with a lot of those guys at this point.
22:42You know, season long is a different story. I think that some of those guys are actually like I'm not drafting a
22:48ton of DJ Moore in season long because some of the platforms in his ADP is a little bit higher.
22:53Although even there, like when I look at my rankings versus where the platforms have them, I'm actually shocked the platforms are
22:59as low on DJ Moore as they are. But I do want to try to get some of those players a little bit more.
23:05That's that's the other thing that's been on my mind this week.
23:09It's so funny. None of these players have budged the entire summer.
23:12It's crazy. Right. Josh Allen difference point nine spots.
23:14DJ Moore one point seven Montgomery point seven Judkins one point one.
23:18These guys have been cemented into their draft slots.
23:20There was one there was one draft where I got Josh Allen at like three ten or something like that.
23:26And I'm like, you know what? Maybe I'll just reach for DJ Moore in the fourth and just kind of do it
23:32because not risk it because it's very rare for him to go in like the late fifth at this point.
23:37And someone in the in the 11 spot took DJ Moore at four oh two.
23:41So I couldn't get him at four oh three.
23:44I was like, are you kidding me right now?
23:46Like, that's just the kind of stuff that seems to happen all the time.
23:50You know, I think and there's reasons as to why I haven't been as heavy on some of these guys.
23:55The Dave Montgomery thing is more so like I do think that he is like a traditional dead zone archetype, but I
24:01also think that there's a very real chance he just sees a lot of volume in general.
24:06So I'm not fading him. I like I'm certainly not fading him.
24:09I'm actually higher than like season long platforms on Montgomery.
24:12The Judkins stuff, though, is like I am a little worried about what is receiving work might look like and how bad the Browns are going to be.
24:19You know, I you know the the Josh Allen stuff.
24:22I'm worried about taking on that opportunity cost for a quarterback or like DJ Moore.
24:26Terrible last two seasons, you know, like just not good per route run.
24:30So I think there's a lot of risk there, but I still want to get some exposure because I could see a
24:36scenario where DJ Moore has a good season, of course.
24:38And I, you know, I want to weigh my exposure for like the probability of certain events happening.
24:43And I'm just not there with some of these players.
24:46It's it's just it's really hard to click, especially if you if you have some sort of balanced build or some sort of RB heavy start.
24:53It's just really hard to click David Montgomery at the top of the fifth round.
24:57I yeah, I'm not a fan right there. And but like you have to I have to be I have to be
25:03level headed and just say to myself, there's a very real like realistically, if we were to say, what are the odds
25:09that David Montgomery is better this year in fantasy football versus Bashaw Tootin?
25:13If we're being if we're being kind, like and like just pretty realistic about it, it's probably like a 60 40 type thing.
25:19Yeah, I said 35 percent. That was the number that popped into my head.
25:23Yes. And I think this is the exercise that everyone should be doing unless you're doing like 10 drafts, you know, and you just get your guy.
25:30That's fine. But I need to be smarter about that sometimes because and look, I was definitely like drafting Tootin because I
25:36could see a scenario where he would be going higher and he has been going higher.
25:40You know, like I got sixth round Tootin at times.
25:43I was going to say Tootin's also up seven spots since we started.
25:47Yeah, yeah. But but at this point, it's like, OK, I know that I have Tootin.
25:51I know that I'm good there. I need to mix it up a little bit more just given the actual probability of these events happening.
25:58And this isn't to me. David Montgomery is not like a Chuba Hubbard last year situation, in my opinion.
26:03Like this is a player who has a backbone, who has done more as a receiver throughout his career.
26:08I was much more concerned about Rico Dowdle last year for Chuba than I am Woody Marks for for David Montgomery, if I'm being honest.
26:15So I'm not going to be overweight on Montgomery, but I do need to get more just to feel a little bit more comfortable.
26:21Just given those odds, ask those questions as you're drafting.
26:24If you're doing a lot of drafts, it's an important thing to do.
26:28With that being said, let's get to our guest.
26:30I talked to Matthew Betts this week. He has a very unique angle to things because he's a physical therapist.
26:35And so he has real tangible evidence to give takes on sort of what's going on in training camp right now with
26:41all the injury news that pops up. But he's a physical therapist.
26:45He's a lead writer, injury expert, DFS analyst at the Fantasy Footballers.
26:48We talked about how he sifts through training camp news, which is a very important topic this time of year.
26:53Obviously, we talk about how to handle the San Francisco wide receivers.
26:57We didn't really dig into that just now. We did talk about Malik Neighbors, but we also what I didn't reveal is
27:03where we thought, you know, and Betts talked about this, where he thought Malik Neighbors could go to by the time August ends.
27:09So, you know, we didn't get into that just now.
27:12I just wanted to more talk about the CLV stuff.
27:14We talked about Josh Allen's ADP. We talked about a lot.
27:17It was a great interview. Great time talking to Betts.
27:20So with that being said, here's the interview with Betts.
27:23All right, Betts. We finally have some camp news where we're finally here.
27:26It's it's it's actually, you know, season long season, not just best ball season.
27:30So, you know, training camps are going. We're seeing some news come out from beat reporters, etc.
27:35How do you sort of handle keeping a level head this time of year and not?
27:39I guess I would say like overdraft zeros, like, you know, get get so hyped on a player, whether it's a Cyrus
27:45Allen, a Caleb Douglas, whatever the case may be.
27:47And I think that they're fine for the record, but just as examples and not getting too hyped on them to the
27:53point where you're drafting them in a in a non 20th round on draft kings, let's say.
27:58And they end up being zeros. Yeah, it's tough this time of year.
28:02It kind of feels like you're what's the saying, like drinking out of a water hose at some times where there's just
28:08like we have no news right for like three or four weeks in a row.
28:12We get a little bit in mini camp and OTAs and then it's kind of the dead period.
28:17And then it's all of a sudden we're getting news left and right.
28:20Right. And it's not just like actual like factual news as far as injuries and stuff like that, but it's the beat reporters opinions on how players look.
28:28And you want to try to figure out like how much of that matters, if at all, it doesn't matter at all.
28:34And how do you adjust your strategy and your rankings and your takes?
28:37And I think back to last year, do you remember the counter at Lambert Smith?
28:41Yes. Summer that was for August. He and Bill just absolutely destroyed August last year.
28:45Right. And Ja'Cory Cross, Camara ended up being like a great closing line value player.
28:49KLS ended up being a complete zero. And so for every bill that there is, there's also a counter Lambert Smith.
28:55And I try to remind myself that when I get super excited about, you know, a fourth round rookie or a sixth round rookie or whatever it is.
29:03So I'm going to be an old curmudgeon here when I say this, you know, camp news matters to me.
29:08But I don't really care at all about like beat reporter opinions of how players look.
29:13You know, I don't care about what they think about like the zip on the ball when the player throws it or hey, this guy looks super explosive.
29:20And it's like, OK, well, sure. Pads aren't on yet.
29:23Like, great. You know, so I'm I try to filter a lot of stuff, to be honest with you.
29:28I think we can get in trouble and kind of chasing our tails a little bit.
29:32But I agree. I mean, I think that you nailed it in terms of like thinking about historical hit rates to of like day three wide receivers.
29:40Like we know factually that day three wide receivers do not pan out.
29:43I mean, it's a horrific hit rate, right? Like like for every Pukenakua, there's quite literally hundreds of wide receivers who do absolutely nothing.
29:50And the KLS thing was something that that popped into my mind, too.
29:53Even when like like Brennan Thompson's getting some love right now.
29:56And I think he fits seamlessly into what Mike McDaniel would want to do there.
30:00But at the same time, we just have to be realistic about what kind of volume a player like that might see.
30:06I feel similarly about like a Cyrus Allen right now where I've thrown the 20th round dart actually more frequently than I'd like to admit with Cyrus Allen.
30:14Right. But I'm also doing so with builds where the rest of my roster looks and feels really, really good up until that point.
30:20You know, where you can kind of like if it is a zero, hopefully it's not completely you know, you got a lot of ADP value beforehand.
30:28And it's not completely destroying or you're not completely reliant on that player.
30:31But I agree. I think most of the time these are situations where like just kind of think logically about what's going
30:37on or like even like an already established player, sort of established player like a Luther Burden.
30:42You know, like I love Luther Burden, but a lot of that has to do with the prospecting work I did.
30:48And then obviously what we saw last year, as opposed to like, you know, Ben Johnson's basically treating him like his son
30:54at this point in the way that he's talking about him.
30:57Right. So I totally agree. But I do have a follow up because, you know, I think it wouldn't be fair if
31:03this was the first episode that I did post official news with Ricky Pearsall.
31:06And that 49ers wide receiver room is now wide open.
31:09And then on top of that, you've had that drumbeat going with design Stribling, you know, the early second rounder from the draft this past April.
31:16So my question to you is just straight up, like, how are you handling things with Pearsall now that he's officially out for the year?
31:23Yeah, I mean, obviously, the hardest thing to do in this game is avoid zeros in best ball.
31:28And unfortunately, if you're drafting early and you were taking some Pearsall like that, that stings for sure.
31:33Yeah, I find myself, though, like on the flip side of that was Stribling.
31:37You know, like I didn't think he was a great prospect.
31:39I think a lot of people agreed on that from a from a numbers perspective.
31:44I know, like when we got to NFL draft, like the weeks leading up, there was so much like buzz, like NFL
31:50is higher on Stribling than you realize. Right. Sure enough, he did go 33rd overall.
31:54So at some point, you have to at least give that some credence.
31:57And now the Pearsall injury on top of that, you know, has kind of created this like perfect storm for him to
32:03just fly up draft boards with the Debo signing.
32:06Hopefully that keeps it in check a little bit.
32:08But I've been behind on my exposure to Stribling.
32:10And it's not because I thought he was like a horrific pick where he was going previously.
32:15It was just like, man, we've seen this story so many times with like not the great, greatest analytical profiles, getting opportunities and just falling on their face.
32:23And so I was kind of behind the eight ball.
32:25Now I'm finding myself where I want to play catch up, but I don't want to chase him up the board.
32:31Where I think he could get to a point where I think he's a bad bet.
32:35Like where he goes now, I think he's still fine.
32:38But if he's starting to get into the, I don't know, 120s, like that kind of range where it's like on draft things, like the quarterback window.
32:46And if you miss that, like, good luck, brother.
32:48I'm probably out when he gets there. But like I said, maybe the Debo signing kind of helps keep things in check.
32:54I think he's fine. I'll probably come in somewhere around like six to 8%, be a total coward and, you know, get
33:00my exposure and not take a huge stand one way or the other.
33:03But I'm always I'm always skeptical of these guys flying up the draft board.
33:07I would agree. And I also think and this is something that I want to get to.
33:12And we'll talk about it in just a second with Malik neighbors.
33:15But I also am thinking about the true opportunity cost in missing out on some of those players and then buying into
33:21them later and just eating that CLV and just just eating the fact that, you know, you could have gotten shriveling in round 16, 17.
33:28And now he's round 13, let's say. Right. Like what truly is the delta and the difference there?
33:33Unless, you know, shriveling does, because I think there is a chance that we even see him rise more if like positive camp news starts flying.
33:40If we get takes from certain analysts that they're very high on him, whatever the case may be.
33:45I do think that there's going to be a wall, though.
33:48Like it would be shocking if he's like a top, you know, top 10 round pick or something like that.
33:53Right. Yeah. Like like like you were saying, like in that in that quarterback wall range.
33:57Right. And so where he's going now, I would agree.
34:00And I would also say that, like as someone who also I think I was at like three percent, three or four
34:06percent before a lot of the news started dropping.
34:09I might be at like five percent right now.
34:11I truly don't think the delta and opportunity cost is that that significant between around 13 and around 17 pick.
34:17Like if you if you look at true hit rates now, the players in terms of the confidence that we feel on
34:22those guys in round 13 versus 17 is definitely going to be different.
34:26But when you look at like true outcomes, it's just not so big to me that I feel bad about eating that CLV.
34:32Are you sort of in the in the same boat?
34:35Yeah, I agree. I think back to last year, one example of this was Keenan Allen before he signed with the Chargers.
34:41Yeah. There was a lot of people being like, if you didn't get the best price on Keenan, like don't take him.
34:47And like at some point, a player will keep outperforming their ADP up to a certain threshold.
34:52Right. Like Keenan didn't get crazy expensive, but people were like reluctant to take him in the 10th or 11th round.
34:57And like you're saying, like, what's the difference between the 11th round and like the 14th round?
35:02Right. Not really much. I like to compare it around the players that they go around.
35:06So like right now, Stribling kind of gets up to like the 140s, generally speaking, sometimes 150s if you're lucky.
35:12But like in the 140s, like it's Woody Marks and Isaiah Pacheco and like those types.
35:16And it's like, OK, like, sure, Stribling can easily be a better pick than those guys.
35:20So, yeah, I think like I said, I think he's fine where he goes, but I'll definitely be price sensitive kind of as the summer goes on.
35:28Yeah. And look, I really want to talk to you about this because you are a physical therapist and you have a
35:34really unique perspective on not just fantasy football because of that, but obviously the injury side of things.
35:39And so I'm curious about where you're at in best ball in particular with Malik neighbors, Cam Scadaboo and Quinchot Judkins, because
35:45maybe this is a little bit of cope. OK, because I was certainly not going heavy Malik neighbors.
35:49And that's clearly a mistake. You know, I that's that's you know, you're going to make mistakes drafting early, whatever the case may be.
35:56I mean, there's been things that went right. There's going to be things that go wrong.
36:00I'm trying not I'm trying to look at this pretty objectively.
36:03But we've said throughout the summer that Malik, sorry, that that round three and round four, you know, over on DK, especially
36:09the difference in player is not that dramatic. Right.
36:12Like it's a relatively flat wide receiver tier in particular.
36:14And so to me, me playing catch up on neighbors and getting him over the last week, mid round three, early round
36:20three, as opposed to mid round four. I actually don't feel that bad about it because I don't think that there's that
36:26big like we're talking about not drafting Chris Alave or someone or like I love Zay Flowers, but like Zay and then
36:32flipping that around and then getting like Luther Burden, like Luther Burden can still or Terry McLaurin.
36:37Like they can still outperform Zay Flowers this year.
36:39Right. Like if you're going to look at that head to head.
36:43And so I'm looking at it. I mean, you can tell me if I'm coping a little bit here.
36:48Right. With with the lack of neighbors. And I've gotten more, thankfully.
36:51But where are you at in best ball with a guy like neighbors, with a guy like Scadaboo, with a guy like Judkins?
36:57And then how do you feel from like a game theory perspective about neighbors in particular?
37:02Yeah, I guess we can start with the least to most exciting of that trio, in my opinion, and the most exciting
37:08being Malik neighbors, which I think is a really tricky conversation.
37:11As far as the other guys, you know, I don't have a super strong take on Scadaboo.
37:15Like I think his health is trending in a good direction.
37:18He reportedly had been doing great in the offseason with his recovery.
37:22And we've seen nothing but positivity from that aspect since he basically started doing football activities.
37:26And now it's kind of not just being eased into camp, but like kind of his full go here.
37:31And he was already running some routes in OTAs and minicamp.
37:34So that potentially was something we could see coming.
37:36The problem that I have on the Giants, just in general, is we're kind of putting a lot of stock in a Jackson Dart year to leap.
37:44We're putting a ton of stock in Harbaugh. And, you know, not to get like too game theory on this, but I
37:50saw somewhere that the over seven and a half wins was the most bet win total in the entire board this year.
37:56And so whenever like the crowd is thinking one way on certain teams, I'm always like, wait a minute.
38:01Hold on now. Yeah, what are we doing here?
38:03So I think the Giants have a chance to be one of those teams that outperform expectations for sure.
38:09I also think they could be pretty middling and you're paying a premium on two of their top weapons that may not pay off.
38:15So I'm kind of just right in line with where Scott Abou goes.
38:19I don't have a strong take on Judkins. I'm definitely lower than market, not necessarily from an injury perspective, but just from
38:25a primarily early down runner on what we project to be a bad team.
38:28And where he goes, generally speaking, I'm looking at some of the wide receivers that are available that I really like there.
38:34And then we've talked about this on other shows, and I'm sure you've talked about this with some of the quarterbacks that
38:40will fall into like the fifth and sixth range when Lamar is falling there.
38:44He's a great target, in my opinion. Sometimes you can get like Drake May or if Judkins falls around that range.
38:50It's like, man, that's a tough bet for me to make on Judkins over those guys.
38:54And so I don't have much Judkins. I have, I think, four percent.
38:58And I don't see that really coming up unless he falls well past ADP.
39:01Neighbors is tough, though, man, like because we had all negative news all offseason.
39:05And then now we have this kind of like influx of positivity, which was not previously there of like, oh, not only
39:11am I out there participating, like I'm going to be likely ready for week one.
39:15And the way that I was viewing the situation was back in like February, March, April.
39:20I was like, there's a good chance he's starting on PUP and then ramping up from there.
39:24And so when you're talking about that type of archetype and that type of recovery, it's a really thin bet to be
39:30like, hey, this is going to be the guy that comes back to full health in week 10 and be the guy you need in week 17.
39:38Of course, Neighbors is talented. He could do it.
39:40But now we flipped and we're like, oh, he's going to be ready for week one.
39:44Maybe there's like a three to four week ramp up.
39:47And then he could just be Malik Neighbors. And if you're getting that at around four or five costs, like that's a
39:53huge win in your closing line value portfolio, which fortunately I do have a little bit of.
39:58The problem for me with Neighbors is every time I'm trying to play catch up right now, there's always somebody else in
40:04my drafts that is willing to take him like two or three spots earlier than me.
40:08So I'm still stuck at like 5% Neighbors. And I saw him in a couple drafts I did recently the last week.
40:14He went at the end of the second round.
40:16So like, you know, I think round two Neighbors is coming.
40:19And so I don't want to like fade him at this point because I do think there's a chance that he could be awesome this year.
40:27The tricky thing is for me, though, where he goes, there's so many good bets around him that if somebody else is
40:32willing to chase him up, just knowing, hey, he is coming off ACL and meniscus surgery.
40:37Yeah, we're putting a lot of stock in Dart for year two is the Matt Nagy offense, et cetera, et cetera.
40:43Like I'm willing to kind of for this slate of best ball for the slate of, you know, DFS, if you want
40:49to kind of frame it that way, I'm willing to be underweight neighbors.
40:52But it's absolutely terrifying. Yeah, I mean, like it's it seems he's consistently been at least like a two three turn type
40:58player at this point, like you were saying, like into the second round.
41:02I did a street a live stream on Friday, got him at 306, which was I feel hashtag blessed for that one.
41:08Right. Because just to just to up the exposure a little bit and we're not we're just not seeing, you know, him fall quite as frequently like that.
41:15But again, you know, I do think that there's going to hit you're going to hit that wall.
41:20Like to me, given like the injury concerns, am I wrong to say that like they still exist for, you know, once the season gets going?
41:27Like if he's if he's ramping up the way that he's ramping up and let's say we don't see him in the preseason at all.
41:34And, you know, we're just getting practice reports that he's practicing and seems fine.
41:38And like we've seen the routes already and him running them, you know, in cutting via these videos, like when week one begins, you wouldn't be expecting.
41:45I mean, this might be like a leading question, but you like you wouldn't be expecting him to like be 100 percent right away, would you?
41:52I would not. It's still going to take a few weeks of game, game action to kind of ramp back up.
41:58And the trickiest thing for players coming off this ACL procedure or any major surgery really is getting the confidence like in
42:04game action to actually trust yourself again. And it's great to be able to run routes against air with shorts on and all those things.
42:11But that's just kind of step one in the recovery here as you get back into real football shape.
42:16And so I think it's also possible you see the Giants kind of like push and pull this thing where it's like,
42:22let's push him two or three days in a row.
42:24All right, let's give him a day off. Let's see how we recovered.
42:28If it's going great, let's keep doing that plan.
42:30If it's if he's struggling with swelling or soreness or whatever, we're going to back off.
42:35And so right now there's so much positivity. I'm not trying to like scare anybody or anything like that.
42:40But there's also a world that exists where you get a couple weeks into camp.
42:44It's not feeling as good as it was two weeks ago.
42:47Now we kind of dial back. So I'm just, like I said, hesitant to kind of push him up into mid round
42:53two, which I think he could close there, which for me is kind of a tough bet.
42:58Even with the surgery and the recovery, we've seen players do well in the first year off ACL surgery in recent years,
43:04like Cooper Cupps year a handful of years back.
43:06Chris Goblin had a nice season off the first one.
43:09So it does happen. But that is not necessarily the norm, so to speak.
43:13Yeah, it feels like if you think about this only in a positive light and that things just only get better and
43:18better up until the start of the season, you're going to see him.
43:22I mean, where do you think he maxes out at?
43:25Like mid round two ish? Like, do you think that he goes one to turn if like things are only positive from here on out?
43:32Do you think it's like a Drake London, like him or Drake London type scenario?
43:36I could see him going earlier than AJ Brown and earlier than Drake London in the second round.
43:40But I'd be surprised if he gets above like the Gentie Barkley once you turn kind of guys.
43:45I think I think mid round two is probably the ceiling.
43:48I could be wrong. I feel like at that point, even just from like a game, that's why like I want to
43:54at least get as much as I can right now if he's falling into the third, just because then that way maybe
44:00I'll be a little bit underweight, but not as underweight as I could have been.
44:04For sure. For sure. All right. We're in August now, and I think that this is when we mentally start to sort
44:10of start thinking about drafts, you know, a little bit differently than we did in May or June.
44:15Do you do things like forcing exposure a little bit more or are you just still just trying to draft as optimally as you can?
44:22I think for the most part, drafting optimally, but I definitely am checking exposures way more frequently now than I was in May and June.
44:29Whereas like, you know, May and June, I don't know about your frequency, but I try to save most of my drafts,
44:35especially for like the millie as we get more information in July and August.
44:39So early on, you know, it's kind of just one of those like, hey, I got nothing to do.
44:44Let's pop up in a draft. Yeah. More of the vibes based, you know, if you will.
44:48And then you get to later in the year and you actually care a lot more about what your teams look like and exposures and things like that.
44:56So there are moments now where I am actively checking and I normally would take player a first because I ranked higher.
45:02I think they have a better outlook, whatever. But, you know, look at my exposures, you'd be like, I already have 18 percent.
45:08Do I need more? You know, and so I'll take the other guy just to kind of balance some stuff out.
45:14So I am definitely looking more at exposures and adjusting accordingly.
45:17The other thing I'm doing in rounds 18, 19, 20 that I was not doing in the earlier part of the year
45:23is like being willing to take a little bit more risk as we get more information.
45:27And we talked about that with like the KLS example, Cyrus Allen, like there is still a ton of landmines in this range.
45:34But in May and June, like, you know, give me Cooper Cup.
45:37Give me a fourth tight end. Like give me give me guys that I know are like making the team and not
45:43giving me zeros when we have no information to go off of.
45:46So now when we start to get information like last year at this time, you could still get to Kory Krosky merit in rounds 18, 19, 20.
45:53Then we finally got the Brian Robinson news and then things took off.
45:57So right now, the way that I framed it on our show is like there are no like quote unquote good picks in the 20th round.
46:04Like nobody's like excited to click these guys. You don't have like a lot of conviction, but there will be good clicks.
46:10I think in this range in maybe two or three weeks, get preseason information, training camp injuries, what have you.
46:15And so in those aspects right now, I'm trying to like save some drafts to get that group of guys.
46:21Whereas in May and June, I'm taking like the most boring players.
46:24Yeah. The other thing to think about, too, is that like a player like Cyrus Allen, let's say like back in May,
46:30no one was really taking him in the 20th round.
46:33Right. So you have a ton of drafts back then that just have zero Cyrus Allen.
46:37And so you're going to get, you know, up on the market just just based on that alone.
46:42So that's something to keep in mind, too. But I definitely agree with you that it's a lot easier to kind of
46:48throw crazier darts as opposed to going with the safer guys.
46:51Do you have some crazy darts that you're targeting right now besides Cyrus Allen?
46:55You know, I mean, to be honest with you, I've been going with the trying to like I have so much like Keenan Allen.
47:01Right. Like I've just been just because I can envision a scenario where he goes to like the Colts.
47:06And then all of a sudden, you know, he's a he's a 14th round pick or something like that.
47:12And you're at least getting a little bit of CLV.
47:14I don't I don't think that it's like that big of a deal from a CLV standpoint again, like with that late of a pick.
47:21But I actually think that that Allen would be like a decent bet to get.
47:25Like, I didn't think he was nearly as bad as people think last year, for instance.
47:30Right. So it's also a talent based one that but like Eli Raritan is a good example of this where like I'm
47:35much more OK, especially in four tight end builds throwing that dart because back in May and June, we had no clue.
47:41Like I loved him as a prospect. He was my tight end three in the class.
47:46But like we had no clue what kind of role that would look like.
47:50But all the positive, you know, hype around him and the way that New England seems to be reporters talking about him
47:56and him playing with the first team. Yeah, it makes me feel a little bit better about him having at least some role this season.
48:02And if you're getting him in around 20, which you are.
48:05And again, he's another one of those guys that wasn't always drafted.
48:09So you can get a little leverage there. Yeah, for sure.
48:12Keenan's interesting. I don't know if you saw there was like a report over the weekend from Rap Sheet.
48:17And maybe this will come out after our recording.
48:19Like maybe, you know, more than we do. But apparently Debo had an offer from the Colts chose to go to the Niners.
48:25Yeah. And so I'm like, is it is it a matter of time now for the Keenan Allen signing, which is maybe
48:31cool off a little bit on Josh Downs, who I was into previously.
48:35But I do think the Colts are adding somebody.
48:37Yeah, I think they have to at this point.
48:40Like, you know, there's been a lot of dot connecting with with Keenan Allen.
48:44I mean, maybe it's day. Basically, I've been going after a lot of those guys.
48:48And of course, Debo was the one of the three of digs, Allen and Debo that I was probably not getting enough of.
48:54I still had some like it wasn't like I was a zero with him, but I wish I was more overweight with him, obviously.
49:01But even him like like again, I don't want this to be taken as like this is the CLV type play.
49:06That's so important. I don't think it's that important in the end because like Debo is not going in a spot right
49:12now where and I don't think it's going to rise that dramatically.
49:15We're like if you didn't get that much Debo in round 15 and he's like around 12 guy now, it just doesn't.
49:21You know, it's just to me not a big enough deal to like get worked up over it.
49:26For sure. Do you wish you had more round 15?
49:29Of course. You know, do I wish I had more around for Malik neighbors?
49:33Yeah, of course. But, you know, and especially neighbors, because if he does go in round two, then it's a bigger deal.
49:39But yeah, you know, I try to at least be level headed about that because like in the end, if Debo is
49:45the dude that you need for whatever reason, which I don't think anyone would be, you know, staking that claim.
49:50But if Debo is the guy that you need, it doesn't really matter where you draft him.
49:55You know, like if you get him in round eight, then it's fine.
49:58So, you know, I'm trying not to like be overly critical about that kind of thing.
50:03All right. I want to talk about Josh Allen because he's sort of a really controversial topic.
50:07Brought him up a few times on this show, and we've had some analysts that are very, very high on him.
50:13We've had some that are fading him mostly. Where are you at with Josh Allen specifically on DraftKings this year?
50:18Depends on the room you're in as far as what people think about Josh Allen.
50:23You know, you have these weird rooms on DraftKings that he will go in the second round.
50:27And personally, I will never be doing that. But there are times where he'll fall to the back of the third.
50:33And when I want to get some Josh Allen exposure, I'm doing it at that price.
50:37And I actually think with Malik Neighbors coming up, you're going to see a couple of guys come down just because somebody has to.
50:44And I've seen Josh Allen in the last week or two be available at like the 28th pick, 29th pick.
50:49And at those prices, like I'm interested. But when he would go close to the 2-3 turn for me, you know, I
50:55just prefer the bets relative to cost of like Lamar, Gene Daniels, Drake May, Jalen Hurts, etc.
51:00But at some point, Josh Allen is a great pick.
51:02You know, he continues to be a top two producer at quarterback year over year.
51:07They get the Dolphins in week 17. So like, can you envision a world where Josh Allen's the guy you needed to win the Millie in week 17?
51:14Of course. So I'm not full fading, but I'm trying to be selective in terms of like getting the best price on him, if that makes sense.
51:22I've only got 3% right now, but we still have all of August to go.
51:26So hoping to get that up. And like I said, with Malik Neighbors coming up, I think Josh Allen will come down a little bit.
51:32Yeah, I agree. And part of the problem for me is that like I'm not high on DJ Moore this year, but I don't think I've drafted.
51:40I've done like 100 Millie drafts and I don't think I've drafted DJ Moore yet.
51:44And it's bad. Like that's that's bad. But it's also tied to Josh Allen because you're picking quarterbacks based on the pass
51:50catchers that you draft early a lot of times.
51:52Right. But it's like the inverse with Buffalo because Josh Allen goes so early.
51:56And so, you know, I'm probably with you. I think I'm at like four ish percent with Allen right now.
52:01And oftentimes, like when I get him, it's like, of course, this team is drafting DJ Moore really, really early and I miss out on him.
52:09Right. And so I'm trying to I'm trying to work with that a little bit, but I'm with you.
52:14I'm not going to be overweight on Allen, but late round three and around four makes a lot of sense.
52:19Sticking with the onesies and these, you know, quarterback and tight ends.
52:22I'm assuming Brock Bowers, your tight end one because that's been OK.
52:26My question to you, though, we're seeing Colston Loveland get pushed up a lot.
52:29I was actually in pros versus Joe's draft last night for that contest.
52:33And Colston Loveland went as the tight end two in that draft just straight up ahead of Trey McBride.
52:38So my question to you is, do you have more Loveland than McBride when you factor in ADP?
52:43And would you ever I mean, would you ever take Loveland just straight up over McBride?
52:47I haven't done that yet. I don't know that I would.
52:50I think it would take a camp injury to burden or more Roma dunes there or something like that to really make that move for me.
52:57But Loveland's the guy I've loved since he came into the league.
53:01So like huge on his talent. I took a ton of him last year.
53:04Unfortunately, the breakout happened just a little bit too late for it to really matter in best ball.
53:09But yeah, Loveland, I think, is an awesome target where he goes.
53:13I have seen him get pushed up, though. And then when it's when he's getting into like, you know, late to early
53:19or late to mid, excuse me, third round, comparing him to when you used to be able to get him in the fifth round and late fourth.
53:26It's kind of that closing line value conversation. I fortunately already have a decent clip of Loveland, so I'm not going to chase him up the board.
53:33I went into the offseason being like, you know, Trey McBride got to fade him, right?
53:38Everybody, we always talk about regression. And I think we can like over regress players in our minds.
53:43Like we're like, at some point, you're like, he's probably a good click where he goes.
53:47When he was going in the second round, I was not taking McBride.
53:50But now he's another guy with the neighbors thing that I've seen him fall to like the middle to back of the
53:56third, which just was not happening at all in May or June.
54:00And so at this point, I will start to mix in some more McBride, but I have a lot more Loveland relatively speaking at cost.
54:06And I prefer him for sure. When we talk about cost, I think it's possible.
54:10Loveland has a better year than McBride, but I don't want to over regress McBride to the point where, you know, we're overthinking it.
54:17We did that with James Cook a couple years ago, and technically he did regress, but he had more volume.
54:22And so he was still awesome. And so, yeah, at some point, every player is a good pick.
54:27Yeah, no, I'm with you with McBride. I think McBride is a much, much easier fade in season long just because of his cost.
54:34I mean, there's some platforms where he literally goes ahead of Brock Bowers in season long.
54:38So that it just makes it an easier way to deal with it.
54:42But I agree. I mean, when he falls to mid to late round three, it's a pretty decent click, in my opinion,
54:48especially if Loveland is followed up right after. Because I do think that McBride straight up, I would still be taking over
54:54Loveland, even though I do love Colson Loveland as well.
54:56All right. So in this scenario with tight ends, let's say that Tyler Warren is off the board.
55:01Okay. So you're looking after that tight end four spot.
55:04Who would be your favorite value after Tyler Warren's gone?
55:07I don't want to be too much of a homer here.
55:10I'm going to go with Dallas Goddard. Yeah. You know, we just talked about regression with McBride.
55:14Like Kevin Petula, excuse me, was doing some weird stuff last year at the goal line with like underhand shovel passes to
55:20Goddard and like scheming him touches it inside the five yard line.
55:24Like that's not happening again. Yeah. But that's obviously baked into the price.
55:27He's not going as a tight end three where he finished last year.
55:31So just thinking about the Eagles offense, I think it's just going to look so different than anything we've seen in the last three or four seasons.
55:38And I think a huge part of it is going to be featuring the tight end in heavier personnel sets.
55:43We lost AJ Brown. And of course, everybody's doing the connection of Brown's gone.
55:47And therefore, Devonta Smith, huge value spike. We're excited about Mekhi Lemon and all those things.
55:52But nobody's really talking about Dallas Goddard. And when AJ Brown's been off the field, it's a smaller sample size, but he's
55:58averaging over 2.9 yards per run in those situations.
56:00So Goddard is like a super boring click. Like I don't think he's like, you know, you're not telling your friends that
56:06you picked Dallas Goddard in this draft. But I think as a tight end one for a three tight end or four
56:12tight end build, I'm cool with that. I think there's some fun builds where you can kind of double tap in this
56:18kind of like tier three to four ish range with two of these guys and be done at tight end.
56:23I think that's interesting. So, yeah, just buying into the Eagles offense being way more efficient than it was last year.
56:29Goddard is a really cheap way to do that.
56:31Yeah, by the time this episode airs, the regression episode that I did will be out.
56:36And I talked about the Eagles offense. One of the craziest things about the Eagles offense is even Saquon Barkley last year had 14 goal line rushes.
56:43Now, a lot of them weren't at like the one because they end up tush pushing.
56:48He scored once within the five yard line last year on those 14 goal line rushes.
56:52I'm with you. I mean, you know, too, given the the fandom and such.
56:56But this is a team that should look so much different without Kevin Petullo running things.
57:00So I love that call out of Dallas Goddard.
57:02Someone that we haven't really talked about on the show throughout the summer.
57:06But I think it's a really, really good call out and value.
57:09I want to ask you what I asked Adam Levitan last week, because I think there's a very real chance that this
57:15running back wall, you know, in round one into round two could be where leagues are won this year, hypothetically.
57:21So my question to you is, do you have any favorites from the group and do you have any fades from that group?
57:27There are so many good picks in round two this year.
57:30It's like hard to find somebody that is a quote bad pick.
57:33And so I've mostly kind of spread out exposure here is with the exception of there's one guy I want to get
57:39a little bit more of than than other folks.
57:42And that is Ken Walker. I definitely want to be in on that.
57:45Just kind of I think the chiefs are telling us what's going to happen this year.
57:49You know, Mahomes coming off multiligal knee surgery. Hershey Rice literally rehabbed an injury in jail.
57:54Who knows how good Xavier Worthy is? Travis Kelsey is another year older.
57:57Dude's 37 years old playing NFL football. And they finally, after years of bargain shopping at running back, said enough is enough.
58:03Like this is the offense. So I think the chiefs offense will look a lot different this year.
58:08So I want to be in on Ken Walker.
58:11I want a lot of Bowers this year for sure.
58:13I know that's not the running back, but in round two.
58:16And then the other guy that I'm definitely overweight on is Saquon Barkley for the reasons you mentioned.
58:21Just kind of buying into like Eagles offense was not good last year, but we know this can be a top five unit if things click.
58:28And so the offensive line should be healthier and all those things.
58:32So those are kind of the two running backs.
58:34I want to be a little more overweight on.
58:36I am going to plan to be underweight Devon Achan.
58:39And it's mostly just for the systemic team level concerns with uncertain quarterback play, uncertain play caller, first time head coach, etc, etc.
58:45I only have 2% right now, and that is terrifying for how good Devon Achan is.
58:50But I definitely plan to fade there and hope for the best.
58:53Is that your early round player that you would be most nervous about entering the season of someone that you've largely faded or had not been in?
59:00Because I'm with you with Achan. I will get him if he falls enough, which it does sometimes.
59:05He'll fall to like the late second because everyone's sort of on this train.
59:09He's much easier to fade in season long. I mean, I was actually autoed Achan in a league over the weekend because I was away with the family.
59:17And fortunately, I was able to correct the auto pick.
59:19But it was Achan as like the RB5 on this platform.
59:22And so that's not what we're seeing in best ball at all, right?
59:26So I think he's an easier fade in season long.
59:29I am underweight in best ball as well. But is that the player if you look at the early rounds that you're
59:35most nervous about kind of burning you? So it's actually I mean, he is one, but it's not him.
59:40It's actually George Pickens. Oh, nice. And it's not because I don't think Pickens has a ceiling.
59:44I mean, we've seen it, obviously, with Dallas, especially when CeeDee Lamb missed time.
59:48But I think back to like in previous iterations of best ball, it's been really tough for these kind of second wide
59:54receivers in an offense that go at this part of the draft to really pay off ADP.
59:59Like you think about the years where AJ Brown was a first round pick and Devonta Smith would go at the 2-3 turn.
60:05Never really worked, right? Like there were the years where Jamar Chase would go early and then Tee Higgins would be like the 20th pick off the board.
60:13Didn't really work, right? So like I know best ball is a different game where you're hoping for spike weeks at the
60:19right time and you're putting all these players in a blender and just hoping you get the right outcomes at the right times and weeks.
60:25But just thinking about what we used to pay for Pickens over the last couple of years, I thought he was one
60:31of the best picks on the board last year in the fourth and fifth round.
60:35Now we're paying a premium on what just happened and it's just hard to repeat in the NFL.
60:40So he's been a guy that I've been struggling with and it's not because I think he's a bad player.
60:46It's just the cost. That's really it. Yeah. Yeah, I get it.
60:49I get it. And now Neighbors is in that range too and makes you want to go in that direction instead.
60:55All right. Before I let you go, I need a bold take, bold prediction, fire stance about something that's going to happen in this 2026 fantasy football season.
61:02All right. I went back and forth on a couple of things here, but I think I'm going to go with this one.
61:09Yeah. Everything went wrong for the Bucs last year, right?
61:11Offensive line injuries. Baker was banged up. Mike Evans missed time.
61:14Ibuka missed time or battled through a hamstring injury.
61:17Goblin was banged up. My bold take here. And now Baker is playing with the chip on his shoulder with the contract thing.
61:23I think Emeka Ibuka leads the league in receptions this year.
61:26Ooh, I love that. That's going to be my bold take.
61:29I love that. I love that. I've been watching.
61:31All right. I finished quarterback. It was like my Peloton Zone 2 show for a little while.
61:36I finished it up and every clip of Baker that they showed last year, I not only said, man, I forgot that
61:42he was like an MVP conversation for the first like six weeks of the season.
61:46But then I was like, man, Emeka Ibuka really was awesome to start last year.
61:50Like he was great. Great. Order at the fantasy PT.
61:53Yes. Yes. Invaluable stuff. Make sure you are checking out the late round draft guide.
61:57You can find all the info on that over on lateround.com.
62:00Otherwise, everyone, as always, thanks for tuning in. This is an iHeart podcast.
62:03Guaranteed human.
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