Rewind: Taking Advantage of Quarterback Touchdown Rates
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
20 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 9, 2026
Published
Tue, June 9, 2026
8
Player insights
8
Players mentioned
Topics
Baker MayfieldJared GoffJoe BurrowJosh AllenLamar JacksonMatthew StaffordRussell WilsonTua Tagovailoa
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
NegativeBust0:05
Baker Mayfield experienced a major decline in touchdown rate last year, which was partially attributed to injury, indicating a risk for fantasy managers.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeBust0:08
Jared Goff had a touchdown rate of 6.9% last year and is currently being drafted around QB 10, but regression may already be baked into his ADP.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection0:06
Joe Burrow had a solid performance with 16 points per contest in his seven relevant fantasy outings last year, but his sample size was limited.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveBreakout0:11
Josh Allen is another quarterback who has consistently performed well with high touchdown rates, making him a valuable fantasy asset.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveBreakout0:11
Lamar Jackson has been over the 6% touchdown share mark multiple times, indicating his potential for strong fantasy production.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
PositiveProjection0:03
Matthew Stafford is a quarterback to track this summer as his ADP is still being determined, especially in home leagues.
Insight pageRussell Wilson
PositiveProjection0:08
Russell Wilson has shown a pattern of touchdown rate regression, having barely made the cutoff for high touchdown rates in previous seasons.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
PositiveProjection0:11
Tua Tagovailoa is mentioned as one of the quarterbacks who reached a high touchdown rate, but his long-term consistency remains to be seen.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:09This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharysen.
1:12JJ Zacharysen. June seems like a month where there's not a lot going on with my job as a fantasy analyst, but
1:20it's actually one of the busiest months of my year.
1:23Because I'm working on the draft guide, and that draft guide has a ton of research in it each year that takes a lot of time.
1:32So to manage that time as well as I can, you may be getting more of these rewind episodes over the next few weeks.
1:40For the early week episodes. They're still becoming a best ball bro, they're still the late round show, and there's still perspectives in the mailbag happening each week.
1:50You won't be suffering from lack of content, I promise you that.
1:54But I do need to be smart about how I'm spending my time at this moment.
1:59With that being said, this rewind episode is an important one.
2:03And the topic, it's one that I'm once again featuring in this year's draft guide.
2:08It's all about touchdown rate at quarterback. What it is, why it's important, and how we can use it to our advantage in our drafts.
2:17Last year's big touchdown rate poster boys were Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and Joe Burrow.
2:22Goff did see the dip in touchdown rate that we expected, though it was still pretty high.
2:28He also saw his points per game drop by over two points per contest year over year.
2:34Baker Mayfield saw a major decline. Even if that was partially due to injury, regression hit him in a big way.
2:41Now Joe Burrow didn't really have a huge sample, but for what it's worth, in his seven relevant fantasy outings last year, he saw 16 points per contest.
2:51There's obviously more going on there, though. But when it came to touchdown rate regression last year, the results were more or
2:58less right in line with what this rewind episode talked about.
3:02And while there aren't as many obvious candidates this year, the one that sticks out most is probably Matthew Stafford.
3:09Something I talked about on last week's mailbag episode.
3:12We'll see where his ADP officially lands, especially in more home leaks.
3:16But that's going to be the quarterback to track this summer.
3:20Regardless, though, if you want some of the data, you want some of this information on touchdown rate, give this one a listen.
3:27Before you do that, though, just make sure you check out the brand new late round dot com and you're preordering that draft guide.
3:36I really try to make that draft guide bigger and better each year, and I plan on doing the same thing here in 2026.
3:44That's late round dot com. But without further ado, here's the rewind episode on touchdown rate.
3:49Things are a lot different these days, as I've talked about plenty of times in the podcast.
3:55But one thing has remained the same. Touchdowns are still volatile.
3:59You've heard me talk about this before when speaking on the pocket passer trap.
4:04The crux of that idea is that generally speaking, when you get quarterbacks who don't run the ball a lot and when
4:11they have early round average draft positions, they bust at a super high rate.
4:16You're better off getting a mobile quarterback in high end QB two range than you are an immobile quarterback at like QB five.
4:24Historically. The main reason for that is because pocket passing quarterbacks, the ones who don't give you a lot of fantasy production
4:32with their rushing pocket passers rely more heavily on passing touchdowns to boost their fantasy scores.
4:37That shouldn't be some shocking revelation. If a quarterback is running the ball a lot, it means he doesn't have to post
4:45as good of passing numbers to match some of the production from a pocket passer.
4:50But for a pocket passer, those passing numbers are all he's got.
4:54He can't fall back on rushing. So if the passing numbers aren't there, then good luck in fantasy football.
5:00And relying on passing production, it's kind of scary.
5:03At quarterback, the single thing that's going to correlate to success most in fantasy football is passing touchdowns.
5:10And unfortunately, passing touchdowns come with a whole lot of variance.
5:13Now, don't get me wrong. Better quarterbacks will generally throw for more touchdowns than bad quarterbacks will.
5:19But we know crazy and annoying things can happen in the touchdown column.
5:24A quarterback might throw an 80-yard bomb down to the one just to see his running back run it in on the following play.
5:32For that 80-yard completion, the quarterback is getting just 3.2 points in a league that gives out one point per 25 yards.
5:39Meanwhile, a quarterback might have a running back gain 80 yards in a long run before going down on the one.
5:46And then the following play, if that team runs play action and scores on a pass, the quarterback gets four points.
5:54Technically more than four because he passed for a yard as well.
5:58That one-yard play is a whole lot more valuable than the 80-yard play.
6:02And yeah, that's kind of annoying. It's kind of dumb.
6:06But that's how it goes in fantasy football. And that's a very basic example showing how touchdowns can sometimes be fluky.
6:13Like we're going to see a general correlation of yards to touchdowns.
6:17We're going to see general correlation of strong talents giving us strong touchdown totals.
6:22But outlier type seasons happen at quarterback. And those outlier seasons are largely driven by touchdown variance.
6:28Let's walk through a general example of this. Touchdown rate is the easiest statistic to talk about when it comes to touchdown regression at quarterback.
6:36Because touchdown rate is simply touchdowns divided by pass attempts.
6:40It's really easy to grasp. For anyone who read last week's newsletter blast, you saw this stat that I'm about to throw at you.
6:48Since 2011, we've had 57 quarterbacks hit 300 pass attempts to go along with a touchdown rate of 6% or higher.
6:55The league average during this time, by the way, is a touchdown rate of 4.4%.
7:00So the ordinary quarterback will throw a touchdown pass on 4.4% of their attempts.
7:05But in this sample of 57, they threw a touchdown pass on at least 6% of theirs.
7:11So significantly higher. Meanwhile, of those 57, 44 of them ended up throwing it 300 or more times the following season as well.
7:19So after that 6% touchdown share season. Guess how many of those 44 quarterbacks saw their touchdown rates increase year over year?
7:26Four of them. And two of those four were Russell Wilson, who had touchdown rates of 6% and 6.1%.
7:33Meaning he barely even made the cutoff here to begin with.
7:36Now 6% is an arbitrary number for sure. But it's one that we'll probably see players hit each season.
7:43And it's one that's shown serious regression in the past.
7:46One question I asked myself though, when I was writing that newsletter and when I was digging into touchdown rate, one question
7:54I kept asking was, does the market generally account for this regression?
7:58And does it actually matter for fantasy football? Like I can point to all these quarterbacks who are going to probably regress in some way year over year.
8:08Just by looking at touchdown rate. But is the market already accounting for that?
8:12In other words, Jared Goff going from 2024 to 2025.
8:16Goff had a touchdown rate last year of 6.9%.
8:19He's now being drafted around QB 10, depending on the source.
8:23Is his regression already baked in? Then what's happened historically with quarterbacks who had high touchdown rates?
8:28Do they live up to expectation the following year?
8:32Let's answer those questions. I went back to that sample of 57 quarterbacks who hit a 6% or better touchdown rate since 2011.
8:39Now obviously, if we're going to analyze next season data, we have to remove all the players who hit that mark in 2024.
8:47I also want to do some average draft position comparisons.
8:51And my ADP database is built off of data from fantasydata.com.
8:54And that ADP goes back to 2014. So I'm really looking at 2014 through 2023 here.
9:00And I'm looking at quarterbacks who had 300 pass attempts and a 6% or better touchdown rate in year N, along with
9:07300 or more pass attempts in year N plus 1 the following year.
9:12So one year, 300 pass attempts, at least a 6% touchdown rate.
9:16The following year, at least 300 pass attempts. That left me with 37 quarterbacks to analyze in total.
9:22For some context, of these 37, only three of them improved their touchdown rate from year N to year N plus 1.
9:30So the vast majority of these dudes saw a decline in touchdown rate from one year to the next.
9:36But what about fantasy production? Well, of our 37 quarterbacks who had touchdown rates of 6% or better during their follow-up season,
9:44just six of them saw improvement in fantasy points per game.
9:48And for the record, I'm using standard scoring here.
9:51So four points per touchdown pass. But that means that roughly 84% of quarterbacks who had a touchdown rate of 6% or
9:58better in one season ended up seeing a lower points per game rate the following year.
10:04That's kind of staggering. But it's also not totally surprising when you figure how much touchdown rate is going to drive fantasy production in the first place.
10:13So if it's a volatile number that regresses, fantasy points will regress too.
10:17And also, of those six quarterbacks who saw improvement in points per game, one of them actually did see a decrease in passing points per game.
10:26That was Russell Wilson from 2013 to 2014. The only reason he improved in points per game is because he went from
10:34one rushing touchdown during his good touchdown rate season to six rushing touchdowns the following year.
10:39Regardless, we're looking at 84% of quarterbacks seeing a drop in production from one year to the next.
10:45And that drop in production is not insignificant. Let me give you the breakdown.
10:50Of the 31 quarterbacks who saw a drop in points per game from one year to the next, two of them had
10:58a drop in points per game of zero to one points.
11:01So not a huge drop. Three of them had a drop between one and two points.
11:07So again, not a significant drop. Five more of them had a drop between two and three points.
11:13And then 21 of them saw a drop in production of three or more points per game.
11:19So yeah, 84% of high touchdown rate quarterbacks see a drop in points per game from one year to the next.
11:26But 57% of them, well more than half of them, see a drop of more than three points per game.
11:33And here's the kicker. If you sort this list of 37 quarterbacks by their year over year drop in points per game, another interesting trend emerges.
11:42The players who fall the most are generally pocket passers.
11:45They generally aren't giving you a little extra with their legs.
11:49Here's an example. Within our sample, there are some repeat performers.
11:53Lamar Jackson's been over the 6% touchdown share mark twice within the sample.
11:57Josh Allen, same deal. Russell Wilson has many of them and so on.
12:02So there's a mix of players in here. A mix between mobile quarterbacks and more immobile pocket passer quarterbacks.
12:08Well, remember how I said six of the 37 quarterbacks who had 6% or better touchdown rates ended up improving their points per game scores year over year?
12:18Four of those six players scored at least 3.2 points per game in that following season with their legs.
12:24When you sort this sample of 37 quarterbacks by rushing fantasy points per game, when you look at the top 10 quarterbacks
12:32by rushing points per game, four of them actually improve their points per game year over year.
12:38To put that another way, it plays into what I was saying at the top.
12:43What I've said about the pocket passer trap. What Rich Rebar wrote about over a decade ago when he created the idea of the Konami code at quarterback.
12:52When these quarterbacks are giving you some sort of rushing production, they're giving you other outs.
12:58So yeah, the passing regression is going to hit.
13:01But oftentimes, when the quarterback is mobile, they can still maintain fantasy value because of what they can do on the ground.
13:08We need to be careful of all quarterbacks who have unsustainable touchdown rates.
13:13But we need to be extra careful with pocket passing quarterbacks who have unsustainable touchdown rates.
13:18Now, one of the big questions that I was asking is, does the market actually account for all of this?
13:25We now know, and it's pretty glaring too, that a quarterback with a high touchdown rate one year has a high chance
13:33of scoring fewer fantasy points the following season, especially if he's not that much of a rusher.
13:39But does the market account for this already? Well, I took a look at average draft position data, and here's what I found.
13:46First off, I think we need to be aware that the quarterbacks that we're dealing with here are all generally good quarterbacks.
13:54Touchdown rates are volatile and they regress, yes. But you'll still generally see good quarterbacks with slightly higher touchdown rates than the norm.
14:02You're not going to get like Aiden O'Connell throwing to a 7% touchdown rate in a given season.
14:08Now, we did have guys like Tua get there, Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, some weird players like that.
14:14But the list of 37 is more filled with names like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, and Tom Brady.
14:22But because these quarterbacks are more good than bad, to go along with them coming off really good seasons, they're naturally going
14:29to have higher ADPs the following year. The average quarterback ranked by ADP among this group during their N plus one season was 6.8.
14:37Meaning these quarterbacks were basically drafted at QB7 on average the following season.
14:42Only four of them were drafted outside QB12 range.
14:45Now, I just want to give you guys that context because this first exercise plays into that.
14:51The first thing I did was simply look at average draft position rank that a quarterback had versus where that quarterback finished in that given year.
15:00So Peyton Manning in 2014, after his 2013 season, that saw him with an 8.4% touchdown rate.
15:06So he was above that 6% mark. In 2014, he was the QB1 by ADP.
15:11Obviously, that's going to be impossible to improve upon.
15:14But he finishes the QB4. But to give you an idea of how these touchdown rate regression candidates did in that N
15:21plus one season, 28 of the 37 failed to live up to their positional rank by ADP.
15:27So if a quarterback was ranked QB7 by ADP and he finishes QB11, he didn't live up to his average draft position positional rank.
15:3528 of the 37 failed to do that, which obviously is not what we're looking for.
15:41Now, late round draft guide readers know this already, but I like to look at this kind of stuff a little bit more precisely.
15:49I like to compare average draft position to player output.
15:52And the way I do that is by looking at history, plotting every quarterback spot by ADP since 2014 and comparing that
16:00spot to the quarterback's points per game output. Using a trend line, that gives me ADP expectation, or how many points per
16:08game we'd expect a quarterback to score at a particular overall ADP.
16:12I can then take that number and compare it to a quarterback's actual output.
16:16And we can see if the quarterback outperformed ADP or not.
16:20Unsurprisingly, this group of 37 quarterbacks underperformed versus expectation more than they overperformed.
16:2524 of them played underexpected, which honestly, it's not as bad of a number, all things considered.
16:30I thought it was going to be worse than that.
16:34And it tells me that the market is doing something to adjust for the incoming regression for these guys.
16:40But I will say, not many of the quarterbacks have outperformed average draft position expectation by a large number of points.
16:48And on average, quarterbacks who are part of this cohort are falling about a point per game below ADP expectation.
16:54So just in general, these quarterbacks generally play one point per game below expected.
16:59That might not seem like a lot, but it is a lot across a larger sample.
17:05So when you look at where these high touchdown rate quarterbacks are being drafted the following season, they far more often than
17:12not fail to live up to average draft position expectation too.
17:16So what does this all mean? Well, to wrap up everything I just said, we've got the following takeaways.
17:23Number one, when a quarterback has a touchdown rate of 6% or better one season, odds are that he's going to see worse fantasy production the following season.
17:32And there's a better than 50% chance that he sees a drop of three or more points per game.
17:39Number two, that can be combated a little bit by quarterbacks who are mobile.
17:43They tend to beat regression more in points per game because they have another way of scoring points to fall back on.
17:51Now, obviously three points per game, it's a lot easier to lose from a player who scores 25 points per game one year versus one who scores 20.
18:01So if you just want to look at how the market predicts this stuff, it's still not great.
18:07Only 35% of high touchdown rate quarterbacks will exceed ADP expectation the following year.
18:11Or they have in the past. And the vast majority of those players, they're not doing it by a significant number of points.
18:19And for the record, this applies much more to season long than best ball.
18:24Best ball is about spike tweaks. It's about stacking.
18:27That can shift a player's cost. It also makes certain players more or less valuable based on your team build.
18:34But for season long, it's a different story. It's very clear that touchdown rate is volatile.
18:40But we know that it's volatile. So let's use that to our advantage.
18:44Let's use that regression. And instead of thinking that it's unpredictable, think that touchdown rate is actually predictable.
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