The Show: Best Ball Avoids, Running Back Yards Per Route Run, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 7 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 28, 2026
Published
Thu, May 28, 2026
24
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
Blake CorumBucky IrvingGarrett WilsonJ.K. DobbinsJosh JacobsSean TuckerTony PollardBrock BowersChris RodriguezD.J. MooreGeno SmithJavonte WilliamsJordan MasonKyren Williams
Player analysis
Player insights
Blake Corum
NegativeBust0:06
Blake Corum's poor yards per outrun rate of 0.31 raises concerns about his potential to be a standalone fantasy asset without an injury ahead of him.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:40
Blake Corum's low yards per outrun rate suggests he may not be a significant fantasy contributor without an injury to the starter.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveBreakout0:44
Brock Bowers is viewed as the tight end one this year, with significant upside, although there is concern about opportunity cost if his ADP rises.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeInjury0:19
Bucky Irving's coach mentioned he could be back sometime in the summer or fall, indicating a concerning timeline for his recovery.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:46
Bucky Irving's performance metrics and competition for touches raise concerns about his value, especially at his current ADP.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
PositiveProjection0:27
Chris Rodriguez is better suited for best ball formats due to his limited pass-catching ability, making him more of a floor play in season-long leagues.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeBust0:52
DJ Moore's poor efficiency metrics and the presence of better wide receivers in his draft range make him a risky investment this season.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeBust0:59
Despite his talent, Garrett Wilson's production has not matched expectations, making him a risky pick among top wide receivers.
Insight pageNegativeValue1:00
Garrett Wilson is being drafted too early in the third to fourth round, despite his talent, as he has never scored 15 or more PPR points per game in a season. The author prefers to draft him later, around the fifth round, where there are other wide receivers with similar upside available.
Insight pageGeno Smith
PositiveRole2:00
Geno Smith is not a lock to play every game, which raises concerns about stacking him with Garrett Wilson in drafts. While he can be drafted late, his availability is uncertain.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeBust0:14
JK Dobbins has a very low yards per outrun rate of 0.32, indicating he may not be a reliable fantasy option this season.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:57
J.K. Dobbins' role could be diminished due to the addition of Jonah Coleman, raising concerns about his fantasy value this season.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeBust0:08
Javonte Williams has a concerning yards per outrun rate of 0.4, indicating potential underperformance and raising red flags for his fantasy outlook.
Insight pageJordan Mason
NegativeBust0:21
Jordan Mason's lack of pass-catching ability and low yards per outrun rate make him a player to avoid in drafts this season.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeInjury0:13
Josh Jacobs could potentially go on the commissioner's exempt list due to serious allegations, which would severely impact his availability for the season.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:17
Given the uncertainty surrounding his situation, it's advisable to avoid drafting Josh Jacobs in best ball leagues until more clarity is provided.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeUsage0:40
Kyron Williams had a poor yards per outrun rate last year, indicating limited standalone value without an injury to the starter.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeBust0:42
Michael Wilson's performance last year raises concerns, as he failed to produce significant fantasy points when Marvin Harrison Jr. was active.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout0:56
Parker Washington is receiving positive reports and is expected to continue rising in rankings due to his strong performance and potential role in the Jaguars' offense.
Insight pageSean Tucker
PositiveSleeper0:20
Sean Tucker is being drafted heavily as a last round pick and is expected to climb in ADP due to his potential role in the offense, making him a strong sleeper candidate.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper0:21
Sean Tucker is being drafted heavily as a late-round pick, with expectations that he will see significant playing time regardless of the situation.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeBust0:11
Tony Pollard's yards per outrun rate of 0.68 suggests he may struggle to meet expectations this season, making him a risky pick.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:49
Tony Pollard's route share significantly drops when Tajay Spears is on the field, indicating a potential decline in fantasy production.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeBust0:55
Trey McBride's high number of end zone targets last year is unlikely to be repeated, suggesting a regression in touchdown production.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:59Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. You're about to listen to the The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, which originally aired on YouTube.
1:06If you'd like to catch the show live this offseason, you can head to the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, youtube.com slash atLateroundFF.
1:13We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode.
1:18Welcome in. Welcome in. It's the The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
1:21I mean, I am just stoked to be here right now, JJ.
1:25How are you doing? I'm good. It's been a stressful week and a half.
1:29Did some traveling. Went to the motherland of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania this past week.
1:33It was great. See the family. See the kids.
1:36We had so many people that we wanted to see.
1:39And we had a couple parties to go to.
1:42One of my best friend from childhood turned 40, got to go to his birthday party.
1:46And then we had a retirement party for my father-in-law.
1:50And I got to see my old Halo clan back in the day from my neighborhood.
1:54So, yeah. Like, I got to see a lot of people I haven't seen in a while.
2:00And it was a great time. And then, you know, you go for your way for four or five days and you
2:06come home and you're like, oh, that's right. There's a bunch of stuff going on.
2:11Yeah. That's putting it lightly. And as far as like a bunch of stuff going on, because JJ, we've got some big news.
2:18And I don't know. I don't know how you want to roll this out because we have been running around with our hair on fire.
2:26We've teased a little bit, but I'll let you go ahead and reveal what the big news is.
2:31So the big news, folks, is that there is a brand new late round dot com and it is currently live.
2:37We've been working on this for the last five or six months or so.
2:42You know, this has been something that when Kitchen first joined late round fantasy football, he certainly was pushing for doing something like this.
2:49I, you know, was, you know, before Kitchen got here, it was just me running this business and I wanted to stay as lean as possible.
2:57And I wanted to not have to manage as much stuff just because obviously it's just me and I want to focus on the content.
3:05And so what we just realized is that we want to do more.
3:09We were at a stage, you know, with late round fantasy football where there was just more that we needed and wanted
3:15to give to our members aside from what was going on on Patreon.
3:19And it just slowly evolved into, you know, needing to do this and needing to build this website.
3:25So first off, shout out to Kitchen for, you know, project managing this and working on this with our agency, which I
3:31want to shout them out as well. Edelmaid, they're out of Cincinnati.
3:35I worked with one of the owners back in my previous life.
3:39You know, I've told this story before that him and I and our last jobs before we before I started doing this
3:45fantasy football thing full time, we would literally, you know, like work together.
3:49I was a project manager. He was a designer.
3:52And we would sit there and daydream, you know, me wanting to be a fantasy football analyst and own my own thing
3:59and run my own thing and do this full time and him wanting to own an agency.
4:04And it's really cool to not only have them represent us the way that they have over the last four plus years,
4:11but have him and his wife who own this agency now out of Cincy build this amazing website and us do it together.
4:18It was just a very full circle moment. He's the one who's designed all of the draft guides and prospect guides for us throughout the years.
4:26Unbelievable. I mean, great designer and, you know, his wife is amazing as well, but they're both just unbelievably great people too.
4:32And that's what made it easy to obviously, you know, go with them to build this website.
4:38So, you know, there might be some bugs that you guys run into as you sort of go through all this.
4:44We do know that there is a Patreon that we've been running for the last four years.
4:49And our goal is to get everybody off of Patreon and onto this platform.
4:53And there's definitely incentive and reason to do that.
4:56If you are on Patreon right now, and if you are a member, hold tight.
5:01We're going to send you an email. You'll get some communication on how to do all of that.
5:06We're not going to screw anyone over. Like if you paid a yearly subscription and now you got to pay a yearly
5:13subscription, it's not going to be like that. We're going to help you out.
5:17And the members hub that kitchen showing right here is really going to be able to give folks more than what we've
5:24ever been able to offer on Patreon. You know, we have rankings and tiers still.
5:29We still have data dumps. You know, we still have the live streams.
5:33We have the discord community, etc. But the rankings and tiers, for instance, we now have a lot more scoring iterations that
5:39Brandon Gadula worked on to sort of algorithmically convert rankings into tight end premium into, you know, these different iterations that people always have.
5:47You know, full PPR, standard, etc. And then there's also, you know, the data dump that I'm really excited for.
5:53The data dump isn't ready quite yet, you know, just because it's the offseason and we're not, you know, that's more of an in-season thing.
6:00But my goal really and my vision with late round fantasy football, you know, if I were to just be transparent about
6:07it, you have a lot of fantasy businesses out there that look at, you know, the landscape of being and they sit there as a data provider.
6:15You know, you have the sites out there that are providing the raw data for you to sift through and to look at.
6:22And then you have a lot of businesses that are tools businesses where they say, hey, you want to draft, you know,
6:29assistant while you're going through your season long draft?
6:32Well, here you go. We got a draft assistant for you.
6:35And where I see late round is very much in the middle of that, where we're not going to be providing those
6:42like crazy, weird, crazy, like tools that, you know, are just going to draft for you because that's just not the way
6:49that I am as an analyst, as you guys know.
6:52But then at the same time, we're not just going to throw a bunch of data at you and say, hey, go
6:58explore, go do your thing here, because I know that not all of you have the time to do that.
7:04And so what my plan is and what we're going to be rolling out over the next couple of months as season
7:11long season really starts to begin is a lot of really cool and new proprietary metrics that, you know, that I haven't
7:18seen in the fantasy space before that, you know, have been in my brain for the last handful of years.
7:24I just haven't had time to sit down and really create them.
7:28And now that Brandon is part of this team, him and I have gone through a lot of work and especially, I
7:34mean, he's doing a lot of grunt work with it, similar to how he handled the tight end prospect model, the zap model.
7:41But we're building a lot of these different models to give you guys some additional insights from a data perspective on what
7:48to do with your fantasy teams, what to do in your draft.
7:52And that's going to be rolling out over the next, you know, couple of weeks, couple of months, etc.
7:57So overall, I'm incredibly excited for all for it.
8:00Oh, the last thing I should say kitchen's on the page right now.
8:04We now finally have an all access tier, we're calling it where, you know, we've had Explorer and Insider.
8:10And oh my gosh, I've gotten so many emails from people who are just like, I want all of it.
8:16I want a prospect guide, a draft guide and the membership.
8:19And so we give you guys a discount by doing that, where you can be an insider for $108 a year, $15
8:26a month, we used to be $10 a month, we bumped that up a couple years ago, people who are already paying
8:33$10 a month, you can still pay $10 a month if you were grandfathered in.
8:37But $129 a year, you get everything, you get all this data stuff that I'm talking about, you get the rankings, you
8:44get the tiers, and then you get the prospect and draft guide, all within this like hub, this membership hub.
8:50So long story short, I'm incredibly grateful that, you know, we've been able to do this.
8:55And genuinely, we would not be able to do this without all of you supporting late round through the years.
9:01It's crazy that it's already been like four and a half years that this company has been in existence.
9:07But I mean, it's just something that I never really dreamed possible.
9:11I didn't set out with late round to build the community that has been built, you know, like, our Discord channel is amazing.
9:18It's incredible, like the server is incredible. The people in there are amazing.
9:22And I said this to Kitchen when he joined, you know, from a customer service standpoint, you know, we have the best customers on earth.
9:29You guys are so understanding, you're so forgiving, you understand when, you know, things go awry with the process, and I miss things.
9:36And you know, you celebrate the wins with me as well.
9:40And I just greatly, greatly appreciate all of that.
9:42And I hope that, you know, only the best is yet to come.
9:46And I really do think the best is yet to come.
9:50For sure. And I'll just echo that as far as this past, Jesus, 16 months now, 17 months have been just amazing here at Late Rounds.
9:58And super stoked that we have this website. Shout out to Mike and Lauren at Edelmaid.
10:03And again, you'll be getting, we already have some questions in the chat.
10:07You'll be getting stuff from us on Patreon, on Discord, and through your emails.
10:11And so if you don't have an email by tomorrow, just email me, David at Lateround.com.
10:16And we'll get you, because if you've already purchased an annual plan, you'll receive a credit for the annual plan on the new site.
10:23And JJ, not to be outdone, but we also have the draft guide available to pre-order.
10:28That's right. Yeah. Right now, you can order the draft guide, pre-order the draft guide if that's your cup of tea.
10:34Yeah. The draft guide, you know, as you guys know, the guide itself every year, it takes a lot of work.
10:41Like in June, I'm probably going to have to do a couple of rewind episodes and such, you know, like I did
10:47this past week for the podcast, just to be able to get some time to be able to do the research for the draft guide.
10:55You know, as you guys know, I try to up, you know, and make it better every single year and make it,
11:02you know, be more on that game theory side and not just have it just be a bunch of player profiles and
11:08such, which some of you guys might be into that.
11:11That's fine. But, you know, I think that what's important to me and what's important that I share is more of the
11:18game theory side and the way to think and the teach how to fish as opposed to just giving that to you.
11:25And so this year, there's a lot of changes happening to that guide that I'm very, very excited about.
11:31I've been working on it, you know, since the NFL draft ended and that should go out.
11:36You know, we don't have a launch date yet said.
11:39It's usually July 1st, though. I mean, technically. So, you know, just be prepared for that to happen in early July.
11:45And then you get the weekly updates like you've always gotten with the, you know, the stuff from for players to target, avoid, etc.
11:53But there's even going to be iterations and changes to how we do the players to target, the players to avoid.
11:59There's, you know, a new metric that we're going to be rolling out that I that I talked or kind of teased earlier.
12:06But check out the draft guide and check out the new late round dot com.
12:11That's right. I mean, I just cannot get over what we have.
12:14We had another comment that said, awesome. It's not designed by Claude.
12:18And people know, you know, I enjoy AI, but I think this.
12:22Where Mike, especially like his his skill set and the creativity that we have in this site, you can tell it's not AI.
12:29And so super, super excited about that. And I know we spent a lot of time on that, but this is big news.
12:36I mean, arguably the the biggest like update for a late round product that we've we've had.
12:41Yeah. I mean, it's the biggest thing that we've done for sure.
12:45And, you know, it's a slow time of year anyway.
12:48There's not that there's not that many news items that we got to get.
12:52I don't know. This past week, as soon as we got done with last week's show, we had some, you know, news break.
12:59And so let's just, you know, let's get into it.
13:02Today's fantasy news. All right. Let's start with yesterday's news.
13:05Josh Jacobs. And the headline is Josh Jacobs dot dot dot.
13:08Bruh. Yeah. I mean, I the crazy thing is like he had that crazy story, you know, growing up where, you know,
13:15he seemed very humbled by his experience growing up very poor and homeless at times.
13:20I remember if I recall correctly. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, like I don't want to speculate on what happened because what happened
13:26is, you know, what the report is saying is horrific.
13:29Um, I will, you know, unfortunately, I got to put the fantasy football analyst hat on in these situations.
13:35And unfortunately, these situations happen more frequently than they should.
13:38Um, but, you know, if you want the the fantasy angle of the horrific thing that went on, um, you know, he
13:45could, you know, first off, Drew Davenport on Twitter is someone that you guys should follow because he's always breaking down the
13:52legality side of in the legal side of, uh, of these situations.
13:55Um, and, you know, from, from what I can understand, he could go on the exempt, the commissioner's exempt list.
14:01And that would be the worst case from a fantasy perspective.
14:05It'd be a fine case, you know, just given what went down.
14:08Right. Um, and so, or what, what supposedly went down.
14:12Um, and so he could go on the exempt list, which means, you know, nothing happens for him playing in terms of
14:18playing until something officially goes like, like is ruled with this case.
14:22Um, or, you know, the way that the NFL typically handles things is, oh, this thing happened over here.
14:28We're going to wait and see and let court play its, its, its role and do its thing.
14:33And then after that, we will, you know, suspend or, or, or, or have that punishment laid out for that player.
14:40The weird thing with Josh Jacobs is that like, by the time that happens, it could, he could be over the hill
14:46from the standpoint of like how relevant he is as a player.
14:50He's a, he was a younger prospect at least.
14:53So, um, you know, he still has a little bit more from an age perspective left, but regardless, like it's just a really horrible situation.
15:00And if you look at the Packers depth chart, like we know that they lost Emmanuel Wilson, Chris Brooks is their backup or direct backup.
15:08Marshawn Lloyd, who hasn't been able to stay healthy.
15:11Pierre strong, who, you know, I liked as a prospect as like a random day three dart, but you know, he's, he's bounced around the league.
15:19Damian Martinez was a favorite from many, uh, coming out a couple of years ago, but he's pretty one dimensional.
15:25You know, that was my biggest red flag with him is that he just was not a pass catching back.
15:31And so I look at what they have and I'm like, they're going to have to make a move.
15:37Even if they're like, they don't know what's going to happen here.
15:40I would assume like some move is going to happen.
15:43There are backfields out there where they could, you know, Arizona is one that obviously makes a lot of sense where they
15:50could, you know, trade for a James Conner, or maybe wait for a trade or, you know, get Trey Benson even cheaper
15:57than that, or, you know, go that route. But yeah, I mean, it's going to be an interesting thing to watch.
16:03It's horrible though. I hate genuinely hate that this stuff happens in the league.
16:07Like, you know, the, the Rasheed Rice stuff is one thing and we'll, we'll get to that in a second.
16:14The Josh Jacobs stuff, like the allegations here are incredibly serious and incredibly disturbing.
16:18And it's really sad and gross and all of the above that this happens frequently with these, within these sports.
16:24And sometimes, you know, I'm not, I have no idea how guilty or not guilty.
16:28He, we don't know. I don't know the details, but I'm saying that the allegations themselves are incredibly, incredibly horrific.
16:35And so, you know, I, I don't, it just, it just sucks having to, you know, be a fantasy analyst in these
16:41cases and have to talk about the fantasy impact.
16:44When I know guys, I I'm fully aware that there are some really serious allegations here.
16:49And those allegations are far more important than anything fantasy football related.
16:53For sure. Yeah. Um, and as far as the green Bay situation, you know, they could, now I think in the chat,
16:59people were talking about potential like trades that they might have to do.
17:03I mean, they, if Arizona, like I said, yeah.
17:06Yeah. Um, so we'll see, we'll see, uh, what happens with Josh Jacobs, but on episode, we're saying to avoid, if you're
17:13drafting some best ball teams probably should have void.
17:15Yeah. Yeah. I'm, I'm just, I mean, you can make an argument if he falls to the right spot, whatever, but like,
17:22I, yeah, I can't, I can't be, if I'm advising you to draft a team, especially like for instance, like I'm in
17:29the, the MFL 10 of death, which has been a.
17:32Best ball league that we've been doing for almost a decade or over a decade.
17:37Now, Pat Thorman puts it together. And, uh, I think this might be year 13.
17:41Um, but anyway, so we do this MFL 10 of death and it's, it's an MFL, uh, because MFL 10 started best ball.
17:48And, uh, it's an MFL, uh, platformed, uh, draft that we do.
17:52And, uh, in that draft, I drew the one Oh two.
17:55So I got B John Robinson. I'm, I'm drafting next to Adam Levitan.
17:59I got B John Robinson. I got Kenneth Walker in the, at the, at the end of the second round, which I
18:06was pretty happy with, even though I'm not like overly high on Walker.
18:10And then the third round hits and you're sitting there and you're like, okay, was she rice?
18:15What's going on there? Josh Jacobs was going on there.
18:18Uh, AJ Brown. You know, we don't know exactly what that.
18:21So I, I ended up just neighbors. Right. I, right.
18:24Exactly. Malik neighbors actually went early. Cause, uh, we have Ryan Forbes who used to be in the fantasy industry and a little rifle.
18:32Yeah. A little rifle action. He took neighbors pretty early, but regardless, you know what I ended up doing?
18:38I'm like, you know what? This is a singular draft.
18:41You know, like this isn't a portfolio draft for me where I'm just trying to extract ADP.
18:46I took Devante Smith at the, at the beginning of the third round, because there are too many question marks.
18:52And the way that I kind of view it was that Devante Smith is going to at least give us what he's
18:59been giving us, like, which he would be a fourth round pick.
19:02And I don't think the opportunity cost is so, so significant at this point because of all the, the what's up in
19:09the air and the question marks going on with a lot of those like early third round players.
19:14So started that draft B. John Robinson, Kenneth Walker and Devante Smith.
19:18Very nice. Yeah. I I'm drafting a ton of Devante Smith.
19:21Oh, I have so much Devante Smith. I mean, look, I just, I've always thought he was a good, I mean, I
19:28feel like I said this before, but I feel like he's been a player to target in like every single draft guy
19:35that I've done with, uh, with the, uh, the late round draft guy.
19:39All right. Uh, this one was interesting. Bucky Irving will be back sometime this summer dot, dot, dot or fall.
19:45What a quote, what a quote from yesterday's press conference.
19:48It's hard to, it's hard to like, not, it's hard to ignore it, but then it's hard to take it at face
19:55value because it was such like a, it's, you know, it's May.
19:58It's kind of a throwaway type quote situation. But I think that there are plenty, and I'm going to be talking about
20:05Bucky Irving spoiler alert later on the show. And it has nothing to do with this.
20:10It has nothing to do. I mean, that's like a side item, sure.
20:14But, um, I mean, it's certainly not good news that, that there was a quote from his coach saying that he could be back in the fall.
20:22Like the fall guys. That's, that's when. That's when we're playing games.
20:26And the crazy thing is that, like, we went through this last year with Bucky, with the exact same player.
20:32And I know I've mentioned this before, you know, his mental health driven, there was stuff going on there.
20:38I don't know what's going on here. Like, we have no idea.
20:41And I think that it just makes this situation a lot more volatile.
20:45I haven't seen his ADP fall super dramatically yet.
20:48I think that it will. I haven't, I've only done, I think, one draft, like one live draft since the news broke.
20:55But I will say this, I've been drafting a lot of Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker, regardless of, you know, Sean Tucker's
21:02a last round pick, like, you know, 19th round pick on draft games.
21:06And yeah, but his, he's going to start climbing, I think.
21:09I mean, I, I am, I am not, this is not hyperbole kitchen.
21:13I think I have 40% Sean Tucker right now.
21:16Like just, I, I've been, he's just sitting there as like a player who I think will get some run no matter what, like something.
21:23Yeah. Right. And the, the backs that you get in the 19th round and such just aren't really.
21:29I was about to say, especially if you go, if you're like wanting to get that three, six, eight, three, where you
21:35have to get six running backs and you're at four or five.
21:39He's just a, he's, I don't want to say he's a lock, but he's, he's the best him.
21:45And another guy, Malik Davis, I get it. He's not great.
21:48Yeah. But, and, and now you're probably going to have, I think I thought, didn't I talk about Tucker as a player to target last week?
21:56I can't remember. Yeah. Um, but like with Tucker, he not only has proven to be like a pretty good running back,
22:03but on top of that, he has multiple outs and he's behind on the depth chart to running backs that, you know, Bucky Irving is, is smaller.
22:11And they started to take some of his work away, uh, you know, towards the end of last year.
22:17And then I know they have a new offensive coordinator and such.
22:20And then Kenneth game, well, is not an early down bruiser.
22:24Like he, Sean Tucker is more of the traditional bruiser on that team.
22:28So like he has some role. It's just been kind of interesting to me that he's been like a 19th round pick all, all, uh, spring.
22:36Okay. Rashi rice dot, dot, dot, bro. Another situation.
22:38He's in, he's in jail for 30 days after he had surgery though.
22:42I mean, that's like the big issue. I think.
22:45Yeah. I mean like surgery and then go directly to jail.
22:48The big issue is not what he did. Cause it sounds like he was like smoking pot or something.
22:54Right. And like that alone, someone smoking weed. I don't care at all.
22:58I, in fact, go for it. But what is, what is the problem here is the, you know, him knowing the ramifications
23:05of doing that and still doing that and then getting caught doing that, et cetera.
23:09Like that's a, that's a big deal from just a process standpoint of how the, his, his mind is thinking about this
23:16stuff and how he's seemingly not taking it as seriously as he, as he should.
23:21And so now he's, you know, serving time and having to do the 30 days.
23:25I don't know what that, what's going to come of this at all.
23:29I don't think anyone does. Like you said, the rehab process, having to go down in jail is scary.
23:35But if you want to have another last round dart throw that I've been going after Taequann Thornton for, for Kansas city
23:42where he, he had a role last year. They don't really do that.
23:46I mean, I know that they got like a couple of guys day three.
23:50Well, Jeff Caldwell was a, was a, wasn't a UDFA, but regardless, you know, they, they, they don't really invest in the wide receiver position.
23:58Xavier worthy, you know, is a fine pick. I'm not saying he's not, but like Taequann Thornton had a role on that team last year.
24:05And so if she rises out at all, obviously Travis Kelsey gets a boost, et cetera.
24:10But you know, I think Taequann, Taequann Thornton should be going higher just based on this news, not to say that he's the same type of wide receiver.
24:19Cause he's not at all. And I also think that if anything further develops with this Rishi rice stuff, you might see
24:25like a Stefan digs be headed to, uh, to digs, digs could play in Kansas city.
24:30He'd be awesome in Kansas city. All right. This one was a fun one.
24:34Cause we've had just some, some black ones. You know, I'm an optimistic guy.
24:39This is a quote from Clint. I'm sorry. From Clint Kubiak, Brock Bowers is a football robot from heaven.
24:45They can be. Okay. If he's a football robot for heaven, they couldn't have given them a better hairline.
24:50You know, like, come on now. I don't think robots care about their hair.
24:55Just like, you know, yeah, that's true. Um, yeah.
24:57I mean, look, I've said it before. I think, I think Bowers is tight end one this year.
25:03There's a lot to like the problem with Bowers and the problem with Trey McBride.
25:07And then the problem with Colson Loveland is that I do think that there is a pretty significant opportunity cost.
25:14If Bowers rises more, I think where Bowers goes right now in best ball is fine, but if he rises more than
25:20you're starting to inch into that, like really good running back tier.
25:24Right. And then with McBride, I just have problems with him.
25:27I'll talk about that in a bit. And then with Loveland, you're in that really good wide receiver tier.
25:33Right. And, and I, I like Bowers and Loveland a lot from, from, from, from the standpoint of like, if you're in
25:40a 10 team league this year, you're, you should be looking at one of those two tight ends because that's when, you
25:46know, your team needs to be better. You know, it's a shallower league, all that.
25:51Uh, it makes a lot more sense to go after the onesie positions early.
25:55And I would much rather be going after the, the, those two tight ends, as opposed to like a Josh Allen or
26:02something like that in that kind of scenario at cost.
26:05Right. Um, but in these best ball environments, like I, I'm, I'm a little bit overweight on maybe like Loveland and maybe
26:12a little bit overweight on Bowers, but I'm probably not going to be like 15%.
26:16You know, I was like 19% last year with McBride, but I don't think I'm going to get just because there's some really great wide receivers around Loveland.
26:25There's some really good running backs around Bowers. And so I'm hoping their ADP stays as is and where it's at just because of that opportunity cost equation.
26:33Okay. Uh, we got some Brissette smoke in Arizona.
26:36Apparently the two sides are still pretty far ways apart.
26:39I, I don't know, man. I said this last week.
26:42Um, no, and you got some, you got some flack for it.
26:46Yeah. On discord. Uh, some, some folks, Martin were, uh, giving me some, some crap for, uh, my take of, of like,
26:53like what leverage does Jacoby Brissette really have here?
26:55You know, like, could he go somewhere else and be a backup and make more money?
27:00Sure. If that's really what like he wants to do, but there aren't going to be any other places where he's going to be a, an obvious starter.
27:09And from Arizona's perspective, I said, it's all like, I think they're going to give Carson Beckett a chance at some point,
27:16you know, and they have Gardner Minshew who is at least usable as like a, you know, week one, you know, early
27:22season guy as a, as a veteran. Um, you know, I think that we all want it from a fantasy perspective to
27:29happen, but I just, you know, and look, I'm not saying that Arizona as like the players on their team are sitting
27:36there being like, Oh, we're going to tank. And I'm going to play worse because that's not how, that's not what I'm saying at all.
27:43I'm simply saying that Arizona knows the front office, the coaching staff know that they're in a place right now that is a rebuilding place.
27:51They do not have a roster that is super bowl worthy.
27:54Okay. I would, you can clip this all you want.
27:57If Arizona wins the super bowl this year, I'll buy everyone in chat right now, a new house.
28:03Okay. It's just, it's just, that's not, that's not legally minded by anything.
28:07Um, but, but like, I, I just, you know, it's just not going to happen.
28:11And so Arizona being in the state that they're in, I just don't think that they are in a hurry to say,
28:18Oh, we absolutely need Jacoby Bursette who was good last year.
28:21Sure. But like his, I still don't think he was like excellent.
28:25Like he's not, you know, we, we have a pretty large sample of what Jacoby Bursette is.
28:30So, and none of that's a new coaching staff, you know, it's a, it's a, a brand new staff that's going to be going to be coaching him.
28:39So I just don't understand what his true leverage is.
28:42Of course he can get more money and he should get more money and I'm hoping he gets more money.
28:48I'm always on the player side in these situations.
28:51I'm just thinking about it more from a business end and what the Cardinals would ideally be, uh, be wanting to do.
28:57All right, let's move on to some Parker Washington.
29:00Oh, that's out of control. We get the late round mansions, fire up Zillow boys.
29:05Yeah. You probably need to put a, uh, cap on that.
29:08Yeah. Look, that was not legally, but like nothing I signed folks.
29:12Okay. It was just all verbal. Uh, I mean, the crazier things have happened Vegas.
29:16I'm not even a hockey guy, but apparently Vegas making the Stanley cup finals was crazy.
29:21They fired their, they fired their coach halfway through the seat or in March back in March.
29:26And they got towards, I mean like that, that was the, the, the, the, the golden Knights right now remind me when
29:33like the penguins did the same thing when they, uh, they won the same like, and then they went back to back
29:40who they beat the second time when they went back to back.
29:44I can't remember. Oh, you don't remember. They actually did it.
29:47National. Yeah. Predators. Yeah, that's right. That's right. Yeah.
29:50All right. Back to Parker Washington though. Um, so reports are, he's going to sign a fairly decent contract with the Jags.
29:56And also we have a little quotes from his offensive coordinator, Grant Udinski, who says that Parker Washington is capable of what
30:03he did at the end of the season last year.
30:06And even more than that, I keep on seeing these, these glowing quotes for Parker Washington.
30:11And we have so many quotes, so many players vying for targets in Jacksonville.
30:15I mean, well, you look, you, you, you should not be fading anyone, any wide receiver in Jacksonville, in my opinion, like
30:22everyone wants this like really strong opinion on these guys and everyone wants you to, you know, stake your claim with BTJ
30:29or, or, uh, or, or Parker Washington or Jacoby Myers.
30:32My answer, if you want to do that is, is to just draft Trevor Lawrence is one way of just capturing that,
30:38but I don't want to fade any of them.
30:41Cause I can make the upside case for, for each one of them.
30:45Um, pretty, pretty easily. Even Travis Hunter, I think is a good best ball pick right now.
30:50So, uh, with, with Parker Washington, the other weird, like he's one of those players every once in a while, there are
30:57these players that, that I wish I was more vocal about as prospects, right?
31:01Where they came out, there wasn't that much hype.
31:04The zap model might've liked them, like them a little bit more than where they were drafted.
31:09Parker Washington was kind of that guy. And I just wish that I leaned into that a little, like he was an early declare.
31:17Like he, he had not a horrific profile coming out.
31:20Um, and so I, I, you know, he's just one of those players where it's like he got his opportunity last year.
31:26This is the difference between him and Michael Wilson.
31:29I talk about this on the, on the, uh, the episode that I did last week on the insights from building projections,
31:36Parker Washington and Michael Wilson will get lumped together this year.
31:39Pretty frequently, I would assume by fantasy, some fantasy analysts, because they both kind of came from nowhere last year and they were really good down the stretch.
31:48And, you know, they helped people win leagues, all that kind of stuff.
31:52The difference is that Parker Washington didn't need an injury for some of that.
31:56Well, he technically did from a trap from Travis Hunter's perspective to like step in and get work and such, but his
32:03peripherals were just really, really, really good. It's like, he just needed more routes to be able to show that off.
32:09Whereas it really wasn't the case for Michael Wilson.
32:12And we'll talk about that in a second as well.
32:15So I think Parker Washington is a good player and I'm not that surprised that they're saying what they're saying.
32:21And on one hand, I'm like, okay, the Jags went into the draft and they drafted a bunch of tight ends and
32:28they're trying to go heavier, which means fewer wide receivers in the field.
32:32But then I look at the personnel in that team and I'm like that.
32:36Why? What? Like you, you have four good wide receivers, at least three that are going to be playing wide receiver full time.
32:43And you have a really good 11 personnel set.
32:46You can see how all of them would move around the formation.
32:49I don't understand why they would need to go heavy.
32:52And so I think that eventually logic will win out because Liam Cohen's a good head coach and smart.
32:58And so we're going to see a similar offense as what we saw down the stretch last year.
33:04Eventually, how long that takes, I'm not sure, but that's the reason why I don't want to fade a Parker Washington and
33:10why I'm still going to draft him. And while he's probably going to continue to like move up, not down in the rankings as the summer goes on.
33:19Right. I think he's a good player. I'm not surprised by some of this stuff.
33:24So you can, you can draft him. I'm not, I'm not ready to say that he's like the new Amin Ross St.
33:30Brown, which is what some people have thrown out there because I'm going to say, Brown didn't have this kind of competition
33:37on his, in his offense to be able to be the fantasy asset that he is.
33:42But is Parker Washington, a good wide receiver who can play on the inside and move on to the outside and do
33:49what an ARSB does to a degree? Yeah. That like, I think that he is a good player.
33:54All right. This is a classic quote from Liam Cohen when asked if C-Rod was okay, because he's been missing from the OTAs.
34:01He says, yeah, you know, I mean, injury report will come out at some point, which stokes some comments in the discord chat again.
34:08I'm sure. Yeah. I actually didn't see that because we just had so much going on the last 24 hours.
34:14But by the way, did you guys hear that we launched a new website?
34:19Yeah. All right. But yeah. So like, yeah, I mean, like again, if you, I want to invest in this offense because I believe in this offense.
34:27I believe in what Liam Cohen did last year.
34:30You know, I was a believer last year and it was really scary to start the season because they weren't playing very
34:36well, but things really turned around and got, got a lot better similarly to what we saw in Chicago.
34:42And so with Chris Rodriguez, I'll say this a million times.
34:46I think he's a better in best ball type pick where he's going to get some work in that offense.
34:52But I think that if there is a player that is going to have a ceiling at running back in the Jacksonville
34:58backfield is Bayshall Tootin because Chris Rodriguez has not been a full blown pass catcher at the NFL level.
35:04Bayshall Tootin did more as a pass catcher in college.
35:07Uh, didn't that much last year for sure, but has at least that skillset.
35:12And then a lot of people will say, well, what about LaQuinn Allen?
35:15I think I'm going to probably answer that on the mail on this week's mailbag, if I recall correctly.
35:21So I'll just, I'll zip my mouth there and say, Chris Rodriguez better in best ball.
35:26I probably won't be drafting him in a regular season long league.
35:30Um, very frequently just because I think it's more of a floor play and in best ball, you need production.
35:36You just need a double digit round guy, you know, 11th round player running back who can just get you something that's fine.
35:43Cause I think you could even end up being the goal line back for them.
35:48But with Bayshall Tootin, that's where I think the upside really comes into play.
35:52We're in season long. You can take that swing, especially if he's your RB three and round six or something, take that swing.
35:59And if it doesn't pan out, you can make up for that with your roster.
36:03Whereas you just can't do that in best ball as easily.
36:07Joe Bobani says, never hear about anyone being worse in best ball.
36:10I don't know. We, we've talked about a few times.
36:13We'll, we'll talk about it on. And I think you could, you, I mean, I guess Tootin's not the best example, but
36:20I do think that to like, I'm going to prefer Tootin a little bit more in season long than I will in
36:27best ball, just because I think that there is a serious downside case.
36:31And if I'm trying to, you know, and I'm like, I want to be at market with him in terms of like
36:38the, as much as I, you know, I want to be at like that eight to 9% range or so with Tootin,
36:44but I don't want to be like super, super overweight.
36:47Cause I see the, the outcome where it goes South for him.
36:51Scott Newman says, when are we going to get some more live stream best ball drafts?
36:56Stay tuned. Yeah. Very soon. Stay tuned. And with that being said, let's get on to today's data.
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38:47All right. We got some middle round running backs, JJ.
38:50Yeah. So I did the rewind episode that dropped yesterday and I talked through a bunch of running backs from last year
38:57who kind of had red flags to their yards per outrun profiles.
39:01I hear I'm looking at guys who are below the 0.7 mark just to reiterate.
39:05So if you didn't get to listen to the rewind episode, essentially, I found that like middle round running backs historically, if
39:12they had poor previous season yards per outrun numbers with a decent amount of routes run 100 plus, it's usually indicative of
39:19them underperforming versus expectation the following year. And a lot of that has to do with the fact that yards per outrun
39:25can be sort of a proxy and predictor of target share the following season.
39:30And target share is obviously going to help a player see more receptions and score more PPR points.
39:35So, you know, I have the mentality and the mantra of I don't really care for running backs that Chris Rodriguez falls
39:42into this from like a season long perspective. I don't care that much about players who just aren't going to see super
39:49high target shares because there's such a correlation, especially in PPR between running back receiving and output and general output.
39:55And so these are the probably the biggest red flag players that you could look at right now from a, you know,
40:01a middle round ish yards per outrun perspective. Javante Williams is kind of on the fringe, but we'll throw him in there.
40:08He had a 0.4 yards per outrun. Tony Pollard 0.68.
40:11Corey Krosky merit wasn't a pass catcher in college either 0.49.
40:14JK Dobbins 0.32, which is pretty horrific. And then Jordan Mason, who's just, I mean, that was somebody I talked about a
40:21lot last year where I'm like, I can't draft this dude.
40:25I just, it's, it's, he has never proven to be a pass catcher.
40:29You can explain away some of it because he played with Jameer Gibbs in college, but it's just, he's not a pass catcher.
40:36He's an early down bruiser. Again, a player that you should be more willing to take in a best ball environment where,
40:42you know, there could be some spiked weeks, especially if he's the goal line guy.
40:47But even still, I'm still not going to be overweight on a Jordan Mason.
40:51It's just not going to happen. And then Blake Corum has the, is the last one.
40:56He had a horrible yards per outrun rate. Kyron Williams wasn't that strong either last year.
41:01Some of this is obviously going to be team oriented just in general, but Blake Corum at 0.31.
41:06I'd have to look and see if we've seen like how many hits we've seen from a yards per outrun rate that
41:13low, but it does tell me because Kyle Monunga is kind of in this group, but you know, he's not below that 0.7 mark.
41:20It just tells me that I don't think Monunga and Corum are going to be massive, massive standalone hits without an injury.
41:27Do I think that they could be like high-end RB3s, low-end RB2s?
41:31Yeah. But I'm talking like, you know, top 15, you know, into that, like no doubt weekly starter range.
41:37I think there just needs to be more to that receiving profile for both of those guys.
41:42Yeah. Tony Pollard. I guess we'll talk about him in a second, but you kind of break in my heart with this.
41:48I think we've, I think we've now officially teased every player on the avoids list, right?
41:53Let's get into it. The late round main event.
41:56This guy, as far as the current best ball avoids was on the cover of the thumbnail.
42:01So you should know who it is. Yeah. Michael Wilson, guys, I made this comparison on last week or two weeks ago
42:08show on insights and building projections that I think Michael Wilson has a very real chance of being this year's Jerry Judy,
42:15because the, the, there are a lot of parallels, this profile to what we saw with Judy last year.
42:20First off the argument that Michael Wilson was so much better than Marvin Harrison Jr.
42:25Last year is just lost. I mean, I just don't see that at all within the data.
42:30I mean, we know that two of the biggest metrics that we can look at from a descriptive and, and relatively predictive
42:37standpoint are yards per outrun targets per outrun. Michael Wilson, according to PFF yards per outrun 1.59 last year, Marvin Harrison Jr.
42:441.58 Michael Wilson saw a target on 20% of his routes run.
42:47Not very strong. Marvin Harrison Jr. 19% also not very strong.
42:51Not only that Michael Wilson played a lot more without Marvin Harrison Jr.
42:55Than the opposite happening, right? Cause Michael Wilson wasn't missing time the way that Marvin Harrison Jr.
43:00Was. And so when Marvin Harrison Jr. Was off the field and not playing, that's a natural boost to what Michael Wilson can do.
43:07I thought Wilson played well. Don't get me wrong.
43:10Like when, uh, you know, Jacoby Brissett was under center, they switched, they made the quarterback switch.
43:15And obviously Wilson was able to compile some insane numbers in that offense.
43:19But in three games where Marvin Harrison Jr. Had an 80% route share or higher.
43:24And technically I think this is a 60%, but an 80% route share or higher.
43:28And Jacoby Brissett was starting. There was only three games where that happened.
43:32Michael Wilson scored 9.1, 7.4, and seven PPR points.
43:35He was completely worthless for your fantasy lineup in those three games.
43:39And like I said, the narrative right now is what if Michael Wilson is just better than Marvin Harrison Jr.
43:45Fine. Fair. Let's think of range of outcomes here.
43:47I think that's a reasonable thing to bring up.
43:50But what if he like, like, why are we making that assumption?
43:54If he wasn't significantly better than Marvin Harrison Jr.
43:57In 2025, like we don't have that much evidence to suggest that Michael Wilson is a better wide receiver than Marvin Harrison Jr.
44:04You could say that there's a new coaching staff and maybe they'll like Michael Wilson more.
44:08But I don't know. I'd much rather side on the, you know, top five pick who was a prolific collegiate wide receiver.
44:15And yes, has underperformed versus expectation to start his NFL career.
44:19But he hasn't been like horrifically bad to start his NFL career in Marvin Harrison Jr.
44:23And now you get a new coaching staff. What if they just see that talent and say they weren't deploying him properly.
44:30Let's deploy him properly. And let's lean into that talent from Marvin Harrison Jr.
44:34From his perspective. You also have a quarterback up in the air.
44:38Talked about that with Jacoby Brissett earlier. In Arizona, this is where the Jerry Judy comp comes into play.
44:44Like Jerry Judy, Jerry Judy two years ago ran the most routes in the league of anyone.
44:49Right. Michael Wilson was top four last year. Why?
44:52Because Arizona had the most pass attempts, just like Cleveland did the year before that.
44:56And so there is no guarantee. Now Cleveland still ended up like Jerry Judy still ended up running a decent amount of
45:03routes, but you run into the risk of natural regression with this Arizona passing attack.
45:08Even if their defense is going to be just as bad.
45:11I don't think we can assume they're going to lead the league in pass attempts again.
45:16So you bring that all together. If his peripheral, like, like, like I said with Parker Washington, if, if, if his per,
45:23if Michael Wilson's peripherals were like good last year, right?
45:26Like if his yards per out run was fantastic.
45:28If he was seeing targets at a really high rate and it's like, oh, he just need a little bit more opportunity to get this done.
45:36But then every time Marvin Harrison jr. Was active and playing a lot, Michael Wilson wasn't doing anything.
45:42The opposite was happening with Parker. Parker Washington was competing with Brenton strange at tight end, Brian Thomas and Jacoby Myers.
45:48And he was still getting it done. That tells you that he's beating them out from a talent perspective.
45:54Michael Wilson was not doing that last year. And so I just can't buy in right now at his ADP.
46:00Um, you know, it has split a little bit more from Marvin Harrison jr.
46:04And some drafts he'll go relatively late, but like, I don't know.
46:08I'm like, I think I'm like 10 or 11 wide receiver spots lower than the market with Michael Wilson right now.
46:14Yeah. Same. And, uh, say I'm ready to get burned by a MHJ again this year.
46:19So were you, were you on him? Cause I wasn't on him.
46:23You were, I mean, I was on him two years ago.
46:26I was on him a little bit two years ago.
46:29Well, more in season long. Yeah. Yeah. Which was stupid in hindsight, but he was pretty expensive two years ago.
46:36Last year. I fortunately was not on that train though.
46:39Okay. Let's talk about this guy, Bucky Irving. Yeah.
46:41Look, this is, let's just look at this from a football perspective.
46:45Okay. Um, competition. You get Kenneth gain. Well, who, if he falls in the middle rounds, he'll be on the good side.
46:52Him and Jalen Warren both right now, again, this is partially a team and personnel driven, or, you know, uh, coaching driven
46:58and scheme driven, but him and Jalen Warren have proven to be really good pass catchers in the NFL.
47:04Like they've consistently had pretty high yards per hour run rates.
47:08So Kenneth gain. Well, if he moves up into that like middle round area, he becomes even more intriguing.
47:13In my opinion, I think he is intriguing period.
47:16Like you should be drafting Kenneth gain. Well, he was a great receiver last year.
47:21Uh, we know that he can be that outlet for Tampa Bay as well.
47:25And then Sean Tucker played, can, can play the goal line.
47:28I mean, the final four weeks of last year, the Buccaneers really stopped using Bucky Irving and like this, this pure bell cow type role.
47:36He never scored more than 10.8 PPR points in a game down the stretch.
47:40Cause he was more of a, in between the twenties guy where Rashad white was getting some of that receiving work.
47:47And then Sean Tucker was seeing a lot of the goal line work.
47:51And then you look at their advanced numbers success rate last year, Rashad white had a really good success rate.
47:57It was 50%. Sean Tucker's was better. It was four percentage points better than Bucky Irving's.
48:02And then you look at rushing yards over expected per attempt.
48:05Rashad white was at minus 0.2. So, you know, that, that tells you that he was probably just seeing easier fronts in
48:12general, uh, given the role that he was playing, which is why his success rate was higher.
48:17Sean Tucker was plus 0.2. He was the best on the team and rushing yards over expected per attempt.
48:23Bucky Irving was minus 0.7, which was dead last among 48 qualified running backs last year and rushing yards over expected per attempt.
48:30So I, now we'll layer on the injury. Now we'll layer on all that other stuff.
48:35It's a really frightening profile at this moment, especially where he's going.
48:38I mean, he's going third round, you know, like that's, that's a high cost for all these question marks, all this competition.
48:45Uh, definitely agree there. We, uh, by the way, we got a good, a good point in chat from puds who says
48:52that there's no way that Arizona is going to repeat that after drafting Jeremiah love.
48:56So I should have mentioned the Jeremiah love pick as like signal that it's going to be probably even more difficult for
49:03Arizona to see as much passing work as they did last year.
49:07Okay. Now on to Tony Pollard. Yeah, I'm just, I mean, look, I faded Pollard last year for the most part.
49:13I'm going to fade them probably again. It's just not a profile that I want to invest in.
49:18There's a lot up in the air in Tennessee right now.
49:22We don't know which direction it's going to go for Cam Ward.
49:25Of course it can go favorably, but I would feel better about that if there weren't two other running backs that can
49:32get work in that backfield, you know, here in 2026 in Tajay Spears, who has played a pass catching role last year,
49:39Tony Pollard in games with Tajay Spears had a 37% route share without Tajay Spears.
49:43It was 67%. So that's a, that's a massive jump in difference.
49:47Now, obviously different coaching staff, they might treat this all differently.
49:50Um, but he only had two games last year with 15 or more PPR points.
49:55Uh, they draft Nick Singleton. There's question marks with the offense.
49:58I, you know, you have the previous season yards per hour run stuff that I just talked about.
50:04Tony Pollard just doesn't do it for me. I, I want more upside than, than a player like Pollard.
50:10Yeah. We'll agree to disagree, uh, on Pollard. I mean, if you think the Titans offense is going to be.
50:16I'm saying that there's a down, there's a downside case with the Tennessee offense.
50:20I'm drafting Cam Ward in basketball. Like I've, I've drafted in Cardinal Tate.
50:24But the, the issue in Wanda, but the issue is it can go South, but if it doesn't go South, okay.
50:30If it doesn't go South and it's a, it's a good offense that doesn't even guarantee that Tony Pollard is going to
50:37be a great fantasy asset because there is other factors going on and him himself, I just don't think is the same
50:44running back that he, that he was two or three years ago.
50:48Okay. Um, that's why you had, you draft Nick Singleton.
50:51Something happens to Pardons, Spears, Singleton. I've been drafting Singleton.
50:54Just bring it back. Yeah. He's pretty cheap too.
50:56He's like a 17. Poor Tajay. He just, he's getting lost in the shuffle, man.
51:01I've not drafted Tajay at all. No, I don't think I have either.
51:05And as a Titans fan, that tells you all you need to know.
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52:52Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. All right, DJ Moore.
52:55Yeah, I realize I've slowly backed off of DJ Moore.
52:58I think I drafted him a decent, like I was drafting him an okay amount in like April and stuff in the pre, you know, the pre-draft stuff.
53:07But haven't really drafted him a ton after that.
53:10And I've realized that I'm trying not to let the narrative of the team change really overshadow what DJ Moore has been, right?
53:171.22 yards per outrun last year. 1.44 the year prior.
53:20Those are borderline horrific numbers for a veteran wide receiver.
53:23They're not good at all. He was really weak in first downs per outrun, which is very predictive for his range of
53:30the season long draft, like for his ADP. And look, bottom line, I talked about this with Colson Loveland.
53:35There are so many good wide receivers that go in the range that DJ Moore goes in.
53:41Like I would rather have Jalen Waddle. I'd rather have Luther Burton.
53:44I'd rather have, you know, T-Mac who goes earlier short at Mecca Buka.
53:48Like there's players that I would just rather have than DJ Moore.
53:52And that's probably what's driving this recommendation. Most is that fact and that factor.
53:56Because there is a pretty big drop off once you get to like Christian Watson range or so.
54:02Like there's a gap where you don't know which wide receiver you really want to.
54:06Or Terry McLaurin, I would take over DJ Moore.
54:09There's another one. A lot of people made the Stefan Diggs comp for DJ Moore going to Buffalo.
54:14Here's the pushback there. Stefan Diggs, when he went to Buffalo, his previous season, his last season in Minnesota, 2.69 yards per route run rate, which is crazy.
54:23That's absurd. And then he had 23% target on 23% of his routes run.
54:27Stefan Diggs is also a year six player and DJ Moore is a year nine player, right?
54:32So there's a lot of that going on where I'm trying to just be objective about DJ Moore.
54:38He was not, he has not been good. Like he has not been that good of a wider.
54:43So he's had his moments, of course. But, and I do think that part of the reason why Chicago got rid of
54:50him is because he just wasn't a good fit with what Ben Johnson wants to do because Ben Johnson wants very, he
54:57wants precision and DJ Moore is not that kind of player.
55:00That's just not, and hypothetically that works a lot better with a Josh Allen type who's just running wild all the time
55:07and trying to make plays happen out of the pocket.
55:10So I do think that this could burn me, this, this recommendation and this suggestion.
55:14But at the same time, I think it is pretty logical to say that DJ Moore just might not have it at
55:21this point to the degree in which the other wide receivers in his range do.
55:26Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And you also have, it's hard to like invest ball.
55:30It's hard to stack DJ Moore with Josh Allen.
55:32You're like, you're investing a lot of capital in a.
55:36Yeah. I haven't. I think that's part of the truth that I don't think Josh, I don't need to get Josh Allen in best ball.
55:43You know, you've got to take him at that two, three turn.
55:47Then you most likely will have to reach on DJ Moore.
55:50So it's just like two reaches is tough. All right.
55:53Trey McBride. Yeah, I just can't do it with Trey McBride.
55:57I think that he's going to regress relatively heavily.
55:59He had 19 end zone targets last year, which we've only seen 11 tight ends since 2011 get 15 or more.
56:06And how funny is that after the narrative? I know about him not scoring a touchdown.
56:11I know. And all he did was just see end zone targets over and over and over again.
56:16But we have to remember too, that like Marvin Harrison Jr.
56:19His splits with without Marv were not that dramatic.
56:22So I don't want to use that totally against him.
56:25But at the same time, over a larger sample, it might become something that we should be semi worried about.
56:31But there's been 11 tight ends since 2011 with 15 or more end zone targets in a season.
56:37Every single one of those saw a decline in touchdowns per game the following year.
56:41The average drop was 0.3 touchdowns per game. Whereas so.
56:44So if McBride sees a 0.3 drop, he would go from 0.65 touchdowns per game to 0.35, which is like going from 11 touchdowns to six touchdowns.
56:53And we know that there's probably be less passing volume in the offense.
56:57We know that there's decent enough competition in Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr.
57:01We don't know what the quarterback situation is going to look like.
57:05There are way too many question marks for me to make that click around where some really good wide outs and running
57:11backs are going like, like I said earlier, if you're going to get an elite tight end, get Bowers or Loveland, in
57:18my opinion, and don't get Trey McBride. Okay. J.K.
57:21Dobbins next on this list. I've just realized I've not been like I'm lower than the market and I just haven't been
57:28drafting him, especially after the Jonah Coleman stuff. You know, I mentioned this a little bit on the the losers, the veteran
57:34losers episode of the late round show with the Jonah Coleman pick.
57:38Like, I think it hurts J.K. Dobbins probably a little bit more than R.J.
57:42Like it hurts R.J. Harvey more from the standpoint that he was the one that people were drafting higher.
57:48But it's going to I think it could like really deplete J.K.
57:52Dobbins just general role and how where the value lies for him in fantasy football, because last year, like he was good for his cost.
57:59Right. He was a double digit round pick and he was getting goal line work and he was getting a lot of the early down work.
58:07What if that goes to Jonah Coleman to even even some of it goes to Jonah Coleman because J.K.
58:13Dobbins only had a four percent target share last year and he was not good per route run and R.J.
58:19Harvey say what you want about his rookie season, which I've said some negative things about it.
58:24I don't think he's that good of a of a running back.
58:28Like, I think he's fine and he can be explosive, but he's not consistent enough from that perspective.
58:33He had a decent receiving season. R.J. Harvey did and they used him a lot close to the end zone as a receiver.
58:40So R.J. Harvey kind of has that role, which is still kind of intriguing.
58:45J.K. Dobbins, I think, could just like not be, you know, maybe early in the season, he'll be all right.
58:51Right. But towards the end, when we care about best ball most, you know, in the in the playoffs and such, I'm
58:58just really worried about what that what that's going to look like, especially because we know he hasn't been able to stay healthy either.
59:05You have some comments in the chat. Someone's all in on DJ Moore.
59:09Someone's all in on McBride. So that's what makes this a good list.
59:13I think when you have people there, it's like they kind of disagree because they avoid lists.
59:18You're talking about good players, right? Because you have to because that's why they're avoids.
59:23And so I'm not saying that, like, I don't have them ranked high.
59:26I'm just saying that versus costs. I'm a little bit scared to make those clicks, but I can.
59:32Of course, those two in particular, Trey McBride and DJ Moore.
59:35I think all the other ones on this list, I'm like, yeah, it's not really that hard to see like the downside
59:42case and stuff and, you know, see this go south.
59:45But those two guys, like I can see it working out for them this year.
59:50So it is a little bit scary, but I'm a fantasy analyst.
59:53I got to put myself out there a little bit.
59:56Yeah. And sometimes it's the name also, you know, that people stay with the name.
60:01I'm guilty of this with this next guy. You just see that name and you see him in the third round and
60:08you're used to seeing him at the one to turn.
60:11It's Garrett Wilson. Yeah. I mean, look, I think he's talented, but I also I don't want this to be taken the wrong way.
60:18I think he's talented, but I think that we've used that as an excuse far too often for Garrett Wilson, right?
60:24Like eventually production has to come before we say like, like if he just continues doing what he's doing, it's fine, but
60:31it's definitely not special in the way that people think that Garrett Wilson is special.
60:36Um, you know, I remember making the comps to Chris Alave for a while.
60:40You guys can look at old tweets from me where I would like show the yards per hour run and the target shares and stuff.
60:48And it's like, they're really not that different of players in terms of their actual production.
60:53And it did help Chris Alave last year that he gets a better offensive system and he gets a better offensive minded coach.
61:00But I just don't feel like that's happening to the degree in which we want it to happen with Garrett Wilson.
61:06And he is going firmly in that range of really good wide receivers.
61:10I, I made the mistake of drafting him too much early.
61:13Like just thinking like, you know, not really thinking through all of my player takes at the moment in the moment, you
61:20know, before the draft happened, but then the draft happens, they draft Omar Cooper and Kenyon Sadiq.
61:25Uh, there he's going amongst those really good wide outs like T-Mac and a Buka and Luther Burden and Zay flowers.
61:32And I would take all of them over Garrett Wilson, like pretty, pretty easily.
61:36Uh, he's had multiple 30% target share seasons, but he's never scored 15 or more PPR points per game.
61:42Garrett Wilson in a single season. He's never given you that like high end wide receiver to, you know, low end wide receiver one type season.
61:50And now you have Gino Smith who I think, you know, I've said it before.
61:54I think the jets offense can be better than what people think because people think that they're going to be horrible.
62:01I think there's an out here where they're better, but there's also a very realistic possibility that they're just as bad.
62:07And we have to recognize that as well. If Garrett Wilson were going around later, it'd be fine.
62:12Like, I think that's where he should go. But at the three, four turn early fourth round, I'd rather get them in the late fifth.
62:20We're like, you know, right before a Christian Watson or something or around that range, as opposed to, you know, snagging him
62:27where there's just a lot of upside. Um, there, there's a lot of good wide receivers.
62:32It's going to be again in auction drafts. It's the same thing as last year where we had like the JMO, George
62:38Pickens, like that kind of range of wide receivers last year, where in auction drafts, you could get like three or four of those guys at a discount.
62:47Uh, we're going to run into the exact same thing this year where that group I keep mentioning is going to be
62:54cheaper than even like, you know, the, the early third round guys, uh, like that, that you can go after.
63:00And, but the, the, the, the, the ceiling outcomes really aren't that different between those guys.
63:05And so I just don't think Garrett Wilson belongs, despite the fact that I do think he's talented.
63:10I just don't think that he belongs in that tier.
63:13Fair enough. And like I said, it's a, it's a name recognition thing.
63:17It's, you know, you see Garrett Wilson, you see him available and you're like, Oh, I want that.
63:23And you don't, you don't realize that maybe, maybe the conditions for him this year aren't that great comparable to who's going around him.
63:30I will, we'll say though, it's easy to stack him with Gino Smith.
63:34Gino Smith goes way late and it's a, I think it's the end of the third round or beginning of the fourth round.
63:41You can easily get him and Brees Hall. You can, I've done that before.
63:45I've done that. I've done that in drafts. I don't think I've done it in any like Millie drafts, you know, but
63:52more of like the lower, the lower ones. But yeah, I mean like you can, the other thing too, though, is that
63:59like Gino Smith is not a lock to play every game.
64:02Yeah. So like, that's another problem with, with him and stacking him.
64:06Okay. Good stuff, JJ. That does it for the avoids list.
64:09Now let's wrap this up. Okay. Just a reminder to go and subscribe, like, comment.
64:14We love the comments. We love the interaction that we get.
64:17Even if you disagree, even if you disagree, tell us why you disagree.
64:21And let us know in the comments or just tell us that, you know, we're your favorite show and you love us
64:28so much and that would be great too. Either or we'll take.
64:31With that being said, make sure you go to late round.com because now we have the new membership.
64:37We've got the new draft guide for pre-order. If you want to do that, the prospect guide, we have the newsletter, the newsletter.
64:44We have now a section for newsletters. So there's been like a couple of like big newsletters that we've done, you know, deep dives, that sort of thing.
64:52We haven't had a place for that in the past.
64:55Now we do. We have a newsletter section. So if you missed out on, I think we've got five or six of our best ones up there.
65:04You can go and do some reading there for free.
65:07So JJ, final thoughts? No, I mean, again, I appreciate everybody for the support.
65:11You guys are what has made the new late round.com possible.
65:14And I hope that you, you know, dig it and enjoy, you know, the interaction and the new stuff that we're adding,
65:21you know, to the website and to the membership that all for the same price, by the way, like we're not we're not shifting prices.
65:29We're literally just adding more. So, again, we'll be communicating with you guys.
65:33If you're on Patreon now, we'll be sending some emails out so that you guys can transfer over and do it seamlessly.
65:39And we are here to help. If you have any questions, email David at late round dot com.
65:45And I'm ready. I'm ready. I'll, you know, get my caffeine ready and a couple more questions.
65:50Yeah. But I mean, we have a lot. We still have some stuff to do to migrate everybody over.
65:56And these are this is something that we knew we would have to do.
66:00And and we welcome it. We welcome that challenge because we want everyone to get on the new membership platform.
66:06And that way we can just do more stuff on the site.
66:10So, JJ, appreciate you. Appreciate everyone else that tuned in and that gave us so much encouragement during the show.
66:16If you disagree with him, JJ's takes. That's fine.
66:19We forgive you. And with that being said, JJ, let's get out of here.
66:23Appreciate you all. Love you all. We'll see you next time here on the Late Round Fantasy Football Show.
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