Becoming a Best Ball Bro: A Unique Way to Stack?
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1 hr 22 min
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Jul 22, 2026
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Wed, July 22, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Lowe's knows Sundays are for football, so tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and
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0:24Amazon Health AI presents Painful Thoughts. I, um, I can't stop scratching my downtown.
0:29Yeah, but I'm not itching to go downtown and tell a receptionist I'm here to talk about my downtown.
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0:45JJ, good to see you after a week off.
0:48How was the vacation man? It was great man.
0:51It was great to hang out with the family.
0:53Everything though unraveled when I got home. Our upstairs air conditioner broke.
0:57And so we've been without that for a few days now.
1:01And that's where my office is at. So my upstairs, uh, it's been like in the eighties, uh, high eighties at times.
1:08And I've tried to, you know, record some shows and get stuff done.
1:12And it has not been easy at all, but I gotta say experiencing that heat inside the house still somehow better than
1:19when I drafted Puka Nakua and Devante Adams. And someone drafted naked Matthew Stafford at the end of the fifth round last week.
1:26I'm JJ. And over the last couple of years, I've been doing everything I can to be a best ball bro.
1:33And last season things finally fell into place. I got 40th in the DraftKings Millie contest, taking home $20,000.
1:39Maybe I became a best ball bro, but I'm still looking to learn more about this game.
1:45And I still want others to come on this ride with me.
1:48So even if you consider me a best ball bro, this could be your year.
1:53This could be the year that you officially become a best ball bro.
1:57This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball, and we've got a can't
2:04miss offer on their biggest best ball contest ever.
2:07$20 million in total prizes. It's draft one, get one.
2:11Draft your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week, all season long.
2:17Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
2:21Enter a lineup in the $20 million best ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
2:27Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
2:31The crown is yours. Welcome into another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro.
2:36I'm JJ Zacharysen, and joined as always by Rich Ryan.
2:39Rich, what's going on, buddy? Doing great, man. The football is behind us, and the football is ahead of us.
2:45I fired up three consecutive fast drafts last night after my work was finished, so I am full steam ahead for best ball and football season.
2:54Yeah, I got some drafts in on vacation, which was great.
2:57When the kids went to bed, I was able to, you know, just hang out in the living room.
3:03It's one of the best times. Like, the kids are settled.
3:07You had a long, fun day, and you just bust open the laptop, and you're sitting there with your significant other, and,
3:14you know, they're doing their thing, and I'm doing my thing, and I'm just cranking out some drafts.
3:20So I am officially over the 80 mark with my milli drafts so far.
3:24I have to say, so I'm going to talk about some exposures here in a second of some of the higher, higher
3:31drafted players in terms of, sorry, high ADP players, I should say.
3:35They're obviously higher drafted if I'm going to talk about the higher exposed players that I've, that I've drafted.
3:41The thing is, in these drafts, these 80 plus drafts, now I've done a couple more than 80.
3:47I have gotten the 110 in 14 of them.
3:50What? And it is the most tilting. I hit 80 and I put all my notes for today's show for the 80 drafts that I've done.
3:58And then I did two more since I put the show sheet together.
4:02And in both of those drafts, I drew the 110.
4:05So I have now gotten the 110 in what 17% if you do the 82, 17% of my drafts, I've gotten the 101 three times.
4:13And it is beyond frustrating, beyond tilting. So if you guys feel that pain, I feel it too.
4:19I'm not getting nearly enough Jameer Gibbs and you can't do anything about it, right?
4:24Like I'm sitting here and I'm like, I messaged kitchen and Godula about it and kitchen's like, you got to log out,
4:31log back in, you know, like, like, just, just change, change things up a little bit.
4:36Yeah, right. Change things up a little bit and maybe that will help.
4:40But what I do want to do really quick, we have a great guest on today's show.
4:46There's a long conversation. I bring up the air conditioner thing multiple times in that conversation because actually it was even warmer
4:53when I recorded that with our guests. So I, by the end of the like 50 some minutes that we, that we
5:00were talking, I'm literally sweating on the show. So just, just be prepared.
5:04If you're watching on YouTube, it gets pretty bad.
5:07And I like my face is red, you know, I, it's, it's just not.
5:11Not a, not a good scene at all. What I wanted to do is since I am at that 80 mark, I'm
5:18going to go one by one through about eight players, eight or nine players who I am highest exposed to based on, on early ADP players.
5:27So I'm not talking like, you know, Jonah Coleman is someone that I'm highest on right now that I have like 30% exposure to.
5:34I actually talk about Coleman with our guests at the end of the conversation.
5:39So you guys can dig into that. We kind of just straight away and just went off on a tangent, but I
5:46think people, you know, hopefully we'll, we'll dig that, but I'm only talking about like top six or seven rounds, essentially your top six rounds, mostly.
5:54So with that being said, I'm going to kick things off and first say that the only player out of these, out
6:01of this group, that's been over 20% is the one that I'm going to bring up first.
6:07And that is Mr. Luther Burden. I kind of got burden crazy one point in June and was just drafting them.
6:13Basically every time I was in the mid to late fourth round, I've been trying to get, you know, even out the
6:20exposure a little bit more with burden. I still think that there's a chance that burden is a slight camp riser.
6:27Like, I still think there's at least some chance that we get a lot of hype and steam behind him.
6:33And because right now you're still finding drafts where he will slip into the beginning of the fifth round over on draft games.
6:41And so I think that there's room for him to grow and just kind of like jump in front of that giant
6:48tier of wide receivers, whether it be Jalen Waddle, who I also like, you know, Terry McLaurin, T-Mac, Garrett Wilson, like all of those players.
6:56I think there's a chance that he has that like Zay flowers effect that we've seen with Zay where Zay kind of escaped from that group.
7:04And Emeka Buka has kind of escaped from that group to some degree as well.
7:09I think that there's a chance of that with Luther Burden, because what if Roma Dunze comes out?
7:15He doesn't look 100%. You know, there's obviously already been steam from Ben Johnson saying that he's buying Luther Burden stock.
7:21And so I think that there's still some chance that his price rises a bit.
7:26I don't think it's going to get that much lower more than likely.
7:30But yeah, I'm in on burden this year. You know, I've seen a lot of people say that they're out that they don't understand this price point.
7:39And, you know, if you look at rookie season point per game marks, it's very rare for a player to really break
7:46out after such a low PPR point per game mark as Burden had.
7:50But my counter to that is, well, it's also rare to find a player who had that low of a point per
7:57game mark and such great per route run efficiency.
8:00You know, there's a lot more to a profile than just looking at one singular metric and just crossing that dude off
8:07your list because we haven't seen that historically. Now, if there are six, seven, eight metrics that you know are relatively predictive
8:14and all of them just say, hey, don't draft this guy.
8:18You know, that's one of the reasons why I am a little bit scared of like a DJ more.
8:24Let's say even though I understand the fit in real life, then I think, yeah, you can you can make that claim.
8:31And it's just it's more so for me. I don't think the Luther Burden stuff is simply all hype.
8:37You know, like this isn't just like a fantasy football industry fabrication of what's going on.
8:42The freaking head coach of the team who handpicked him, who drafted him, right, is saying that he's buying Luther Burden stock.
8:49You can almost copy and paste what Ben Johnson was doing in Detroit from a personnel standpoint and kind of see what
8:56he's trying to do in Chicago with the playmakers that he has as well.
9:01And we know that easier kind of lower a dot, but also inside out role to that will scheme guys is the Aminra St.
9:08Brown role. Right. And that's the role that Luther Burden is more than likely going to play in this offense.
9:15So I'm in on Burden this year. I'm at twenty five percent, a little bit lower because I did two more drafts and I did not draft Burden.
9:24So let's just say twenty three percent or something.
9:27But I am high on Burden this year. And, you know, if you're listening to this, if you don't want to take that on, fine.
9:35If you want to be a little bit even, fine.
9:38But I would still recommend being over that eight percent mark and being overweight on burden versus the market.
9:44Yeah. If it was just hype, then we wouldn't see Colson Loveland and Roma Dunsai going as high as they were as well.
9:51People want pieces of this offense. Yeah. Something else.
9:54Something else I want to throw out there, too, is that I see a lot of like, you know, oh, if you're
10:01high on Parker Washington, then that means that you have to hate Brian Thomas.
10:06You know, like if you like Luther Burden, then you have to.
10:09No, because in an individual draft, you're making a bet on that player in that draft.
10:15To me, every draft is like an outcome for a particular season and how that would go down.
10:20You know, there are hundreds and hundreds of outcomes and ways that things can go in a given year.
10:26Right. But in your draft, in that 12 team draft that you're when you're picking those 20 20 players, you're saying to
10:33yourself, this is the way this is going to go down.
10:37In this season's iteration. Right. But a brand new draft means, hey, I'll take Colson Loveland at the end of round four
10:44if he falls or middle round four. And I'm not getting Luther Burden in that case, which in that case for that particular lineup.
10:52Yeah. I hope the breakout doesn't happen for Luther Burden for that lineup.
10:56You know, I think it just goes to like the more of the probabilistic thinking and not handcuffing yourself to a take
11:03and just saying like this has to happen in order for you to like this guy.
11:08If that were the case, then you would never buy into anything ambiguous in it from a draft board perspective.
11:14You know, and it's just a silly thing to do.
11:18Yeah. You know, this on the market score episode that released on Tuesday with regards to the Jags and Bears receivers, where
11:25if you're just looking at a model's output and meeting outcomes, of course, things are muddled and gray.
11:30But the contingent upside for all four of these guys is is pretty enticing.
11:35Yeah. Yeah, it's really enticing. Next guy I'll go to.
11:38I did draft him in one of the two drafts that I just did.
11:42Zay Flowers. So technically, Zay Flowers is probably at the 20 percent mark at this point.
11:48I wasn't as in on Zay last year. He was more of a fade for me.
11:53He didn't have that great of a year. All things considered from a fantasy production standpoint, because the Ravens, you know, lose Lamar.
12:00Lamar wasn't that even that great when he came back and they were a run heavy offense.
12:06And Zay, you know, he had that that final game where he he boosted his end of season numbers quite a bit.
12:13And I think that we're doing ourselves a disservice a little bit with wide receiver in particular, if we cite end of
12:20season finish with these guys when we know that it's incredibly flat.
12:23If you say that Zay Flowers finishes the wide receiver 12 and he's, you know, 10 spots, 11 spots from Puka and JSN from last year.
12:32And then you look at the wide receiver 21 or 22, who would be 10 spots away from Zay.
12:38The wide receiver 22 to Zay is so, so much smaller.
12:41There's almost no difference in no delta compared to that difference between, you know, one of the elite guys to Zay.
12:48So like, I think that when we speak like that, like we're human, so we think in more of a linear nature
12:55in a linear way, but it's really not that way at all.
12:59Like last year, a wide receiver, there were like eight to 10 guys that were really good and everyone else was basically
13:06the same, you know, which is what the death of the wide receiver two was all about.
13:11The beginning of the offseason in the podcast feed.
13:14With that being said, I'm bullish that this this offense might be a little bit more pass heavy with Lamar being healthier, a new offensive coordinator.
13:23And, you know, it's the same logic that I used against Zay to a degree last year where, you know, he's not
13:30used in the red zone very frequently. He's not using the end zone very frequently, but you do lose Isaiah likely, you
13:37know, a piece that that you could hypothetically say is, you know, a threat down there, even though maybe the numbers aren't
13:44as strong and like not that big of a deal.
13:47But he's also he also just put together an incredible season.
13:50Zay Flowers did. And if you look at, you know, the per route run stuff year over year, it's something that that
13:57that stuff is going to be a lot stickier for Zay than it is than it has been in other seasons just
14:05because it was so good last year. And then you look at his market score comps.
14:10It's really hard to not get really excited. Like is his point per game average with the market score comps, which is
14:17the episode that I did on Tuesday. But his point per game average is like 15 and a half PPR points per game.
14:24I mean, he's still getting comps of like JSN from last year.
14:28And it's a very intriguing and fun profile. I've taken him at the beginning, like towards the beginning of the third round
14:35at times just to get a little bit of a differentiated lineup.
14:39But when he falls the late third, I'm basically getting him all the time.
14:43And like I said, I've gotten the 110 so freaking frequently that I've just gotten a lot of Zay Flowers as a result of that, too.
14:52Yeah, I'm looking. I pulled up my ADP data and he's right there at the end of the third.
14:58So it correlates with with where you're drafting. I pulled up last year as well.
15:02I was curious where they finished in ADP last year in best ball.
15:07And it was in the sixth round. So to see him jump up from the sixth round to the third round, he did.
15:14He is coming off his best season, obviously, twelve hundred yards.
15:17But like you said, so much of that boosted by that game where he goes.
15:22Yeah, that final game, that first game, he went nuclear as well.
15:26Like he really like if you had because I still had Zay.
15:30I had him as a fade last year, but I still had him in some leagues.
15:35And it wasn't like the most fun experience. It was not a really right.
15:40Right. And so but I but I do think it'll be smoother this year.
15:44But yeah, at cost, this is it's hard, harder to see him go higher than this.
15:49But to your point of this Ravens offense, any interesting mystery box in in and of itself with the new coaching staff there.
15:56So yeah, I should throw out there, too. I have 15 percent Lamar Jackson.
16:01He's my highest him and Jalen Hurts both at 15 percent.
16:04I'll go a little bit quicker through this, but they are my highest roster quarterbacks right now.
16:10Now, I just it goes back to everything we've talked about, about quarterback with guests, you know, on in our intros before the guests.
16:18It's just this idea that I have a very hard time knowing that these guys are going in the late like Lamar will slip to the six sometimes.
16:27And I have a hard time knowing that those guys will be going in the fifth to seventh round when in the
16:34ninth round you're going to be reaching for an inferior player, an inferior quarterback.
16:38When we know these guys can break fantasy football.
16:41Now, with that being said, quarterback and I talk about this with our guest today, but quarterback doesn't have the best advance
16:48rates even when they have a nuclear season. So I think that is important.
16:52But I just love the flexibility that those like round five to seven quarterbacks give you in these drafts.
16:59You're not feeling forced. You can let value drop.
17:01You know, there's just a lot of upside from that perspective in drafting them.
17:06So Lamar and Jalen Hurts are both at 15 percent.
17:09No surprise with Lamar, given I've been drafting Zay Flowers.
17:12I have Terry McLaurin at 19 percent. You know, I've talked about him on the show before as well, and he's in
17:19the draft guide as a player to target this year.
17:23He had his best per route run efficiency last year, despite his age, despite the quarterback situation.
17:28You get a new offensive coordinator that I'm bullish on and you get Jaden Daniels healthy.
17:33So I think I think Terry McLaurin, there's no signal to me that he's fallen off at all, you know, from a from a talent perspective.
17:41So given the competition there, even if they get a step on digs, I think it's going to be fine for Terry McLaurin.
17:49I also have 16 percent Ashton Gentry. That is probably my, you know, my my go to like round one to two
17:56running back that I've that I've kind of gravitated towards most.
17:59I'm trying to get a little bit more like Kenneth Walker.
18:03I haven't drafted enough of him and I want to be a little bit flatter.
18:08I probably don't want to finish at 16 percent with Gentry, but I'd be OK with the 12 to 14 percent range.
18:15The volume should be there. I love the the fit and Clint Kubiak's offense, but I love the potential upgrade at quarterback
18:22and the offensive line should be a lot better this year than it was last year with their additions and Cole Miller coming back.
18:29So Ashton Gentry at 16 percent. I have JSN at 16 percent as well.
18:34And the main reason for that is I know I've been getting the 10 spot a lot, but I've been getting the
18:41five to seven spot a lot, too. And the problem is I'll take him at five, but then he falls sometimes to six and seven.
18:49And so I'll take him at six and seven as well.
18:52So this is more of a I'm not look.
18:55I know that JSN is going to regress to a degree because he was so efficient last year, but I think Seattle
19:02is going to throw the ball more this year because their defense is just not going to be able to repeat that performance year over year.
19:11It's just something that we see all the time with defenses in football.
19:15And as a result of that, I think they're going to naturally not be in as great of scripts.
19:21And if they're not in as great of scripts, none of that, they're running.
19:25Look at the running back situation. The fact that we're talking about like Jadarian Price, who was never a bell cow in
19:32college, and they're already talking about George Helani and Emmanuel in this like running back by committee.
19:38I don't know how much they're going to lean on that run game necessarily.
19:42So I think there's reasons to be bullish on the passing attack and that volume can combat the regression from an efficiency standpoint for JSN.
19:50He's also just a stud. Like, I don't I don't know.
19:54I'm trying not to overthink the JSN stuff and be like, oh, I'm going to draft Justin Jefferson over JSN.
20:00It's like there's a lot of red flags still with Justin Jefferson's profile.
20:04We like how do we know that Kyler is going to work out?
20:09Like, at least we have some stability going on with Seattle.
20:12So I'm I'm cool. Like if you want to take Aminra St.
20:16Brown over him, fine, like whatever. But but I've been in the the five spot, the six spot and the seven spot
20:23so frequently that I've just gotten a lot of JSN.
20:26So he's another one. And then real quick to close this out, Jalen Waddell, 15 percent.
20:31When I go through the market trends that I do in the draft guide for this range of the draft, Jalen Waddell checks basically every single box.
20:40I think Jalen Waddell might end up being my favorite value in season long this year in the earlier earlyish rounds.
20:47Like he might end up being that guy based on where he's being drafted on some of these bigger platforms, you know, from a season long perspective.
20:55And I get him a lot. Like, I think that you can get him as early as the three, four turn on
21:02draft kings if you really want to get more exposure.
21:05Like, I think that's totally fine given the circumstance there.
21:09And then the final two are two bangles. I have 15 percent Chase Brown and I have 15 percent T Higgins.
21:15But that's partially, again, based on where I'm drafting so frequently, you know, that 110.
21:20You get him at the end of the third.
21:23He's fallen to the fourth frequently for me. And there's continued upside.
21:27I think T Higgins is just kind of undervalued in best ball where we know spiked weak ability is there for him.
21:34But then there's contingent upside if Jamar Chase were to go down.
21:38And all of a sudden, like I again, I've said this before, but I always think through this when I'm drafting my teams is what would happen?
21:46Like, where would T Higgins be drafted if Jamar Chase were not in the picture?
21:51Right. Would he not be a Nico Collins, if not higher than him type pick?
21:56Right. Like, yeah, he would be he would be in that late second.
22:00Yeah. Yeah. Right. And so I think that there's you know, we know there's at least some upside there.
22:06So T Higgins is the last guy in that 15 percent range.
22:10Those are the guys where I'm at early. I think a lot of that's going to change, hopefully just based on where
22:17I draft, because it's still only 80 drafts. You know, I'm only a little bit more than halfway there.
22:23But I feel pretty good about all of those individual players.
22:27Like, I'm not really upset about having because like like not only that, but all of them, maybe JT aside, maybe JSN
22:34aside are in and maybe McLaurin aside. But they're all in like pretty good offenses, like offensive ecosystems that I don't think
22:41they're going to like completely destroy me unless an injury happens to one of them.
22:46And I think JT is is the exact right bet out of that running back cluster.
22:51Like who is going to be the running back in that five running back cluster?
22:56I mean, you could even extend it to include Chase Brown, H.
22:59Chan and Henry, like who from that cluster are we going to look back and say, wow, maybe they should have been
23:06competing with the mid to early first round guys.
23:09Right. How about a pass catching guy with a team that invested heavily in its offensive line?
23:15Yeah. Drafted a quarterback plays most of its games indoors.
23:18Like everything's there for him. Yeah, I agree. And, you know, I've gotten a lot of feedback from people about like, well,
23:25you know, you've talked about rookie quarterbacks being bad for their personnel, you know, their pass catchers and their running backs, etc.
23:32Yeah. I mean, like that. And I talked about this on the show before on a mailbag episode.
23:38That's more of a proxy to tell you that that rookie quarterbacks tend to just underperform in general versus our expectations.
23:44But the idea here is that the system itself, the offensive line, all of the above, the lack of weaponry outside of
23:52Brock Bowers, all of the above, which by the way, Brock Bowers, for anyone curious, I'm not like 13% or so right now.
23:59But aside from Brock Bowers, it's like there's a lot to like about the volume that Ashton Gentile could see in that
24:06backfield in a good, you know, with a guy like Clint Kubiak.
24:10And I think that naturally, no offense to your boy Gino, but I think that, you know, when you when you add
24:17in the offensive line and the quarterback potential upgrade, just given the environment, I'm not even necessarily going to say that it was all Gino last year.
24:25The way that you combat a bad environment is through volume in fantasy football.
24:30And I think Ashton Gentile at the very least is going to see that to be able to like meet ADP.
24:37But if the offense is just better than than we expect, then he's going to he could be a top three running back in fantasy.
24:45Yeah, he could to call back to Brandon's episode with you.
24:48He could kind of PPR merchant himself, but at the same time, be extremely talented and be able to break off massive plays at the same time.
24:57Yeah. And I'm not worried about last year's efficiency.
25:00There's literally no correlation with year one yards per carry and how they volume is what you should be focused on more than anything like yards per carry.
25:09And not only that, but he was second worst in the league and yards before contact per attempt.
25:14Only Quinchot Judkins was worse last year. So, you know, obviously the offensive line played a role, but they're getting really good
25:21players added to that line, whether through injury return or just through free agency.
25:26So I am I'm into it to Ashton Gentile.
25:29OK, let's talk about this guest. I brought him up a couple of times.
25:33He was on the show last year. People really liked our conversation last year.
25:38So I thought, hey, we should we should run this back this year.
25:42But it's Todd Burroughs who has played best ball for a very long time, very active on Twitter at best ball NFL.
25:49We kind of went in a lot of different directions with this conversation.
25:53And so hopefully people enjoy that aspect because it wasn't, you know, more of like a interview answer, interviewer answer type type scenario.
26:00Like we went back and forth and we hash some things out.
26:04And I think that people will hopefully enjoy that.
26:07But we chatted about a really unique way that Todd likes to stack the problems that we run into with certain team builds and roster construction.
26:15And then, like I said, we had some conversations to that straight away from the show sheet.
26:21So it was a really good time. I hope that comes out when you listen to it.
26:26But without further ado, here is my interview with Todd Burroughs.
26:30We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time.
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27:02All right, Todd, first off, I have to preface, right now my AC is broken in the upstairs of my house and my office is upstairs.
27:10And so, if you're watching this on YouTube, by the end of this recording, not only that, I have a cold right now too.
27:18But by the end of this recording, I will be sweating.
27:21There's no doubt in my mind. And, you know, I will just say that it's because of all the hot takes that I give, right?
27:29Like, I am going to, like, take complete responsibility for you sweating.
27:33Man, I had JJ on. JJ had me on.
27:36Dude was sweating. My takes were so hot. Yes, yes, exactly.
27:40I'm looking forward to this conversation, though. We had a really good talk last year.
27:44You know, I thought that you brought some really unique perspective to best ball in this best ball space as I've gone
27:51on this journey of becoming, maybe I am now a best ball bro, but I love to hear other perspectives on this.
27:58So let's just start. What's a mistake that you think drafters are making this year?
28:03In other words, when we look back on this season, what do you think that we could point to as being the
28:10reason that people didn't do so well? The two biggest overall things I found this year is even more than normal.
28:17I think the field is overreacting to the small sample size.
28:21That's just an inherent part of best ball, right?
28:23In DFS football, 17, 18, 20 slates a year, many slates.
28:27And so best ball, we've literally only had five to seven slates so far.
28:31And this year, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
28:35I feel like even the smart people are just overreacting.
28:38I mean, we hear a lot of talk about small sample size in the community, but the way the board has laid
28:45out this year and people are just seemingly completely overreacting to what happened last year, which is what opens up a big opportunity for this year.
28:53Last year, I know I brought this up a bit about how my biggest epiphany was that I went from being too
29:00much of an advanced week, bro, to too aggressive, right?
29:03So my goal last year was to dial it back.
29:07And I not only had my best advance rate in three years, but I also got a team into the underdog finals and it came in 63rd.
29:15So I feel like I went for and accomplished a nice balance, but I feel like the field this year is spending all this time trying to advance.
29:24We don't hear much about correlation anymore. We don't hear much about week 17.
29:29We don't hear about stacking. It's just get your quarterbacks and get your running backs.
29:33What is the most interesting thing to me in best ball is trying to figure out ways to get through the pod
29:41so that you get to week 17, because that's the hardest thing to figure out.
29:45Refresh my memory a little bit, because you talked about this a little bit last year, but your strategy about handling week
29:5215 and 16, I think you said that you sort of try to trick the pods a little bit.
29:58How are you refining that? In the past, there's a couple ways to do it.
30:03There's stacking without a quarterback, you know, like at receiver, hoping that, you know, one week, one guy goes off, gets you into the next week.
30:12But my favorite way to do it is by stacking a running back, particularly a cheap backup running back with a stack, right?
30:19And most people don't do that, but we all know that in a good offense, one week, it could be the running game that gets you there.
30:28The next week, it gets you the passing game and Charbonnet.
30:31And I did trick the pods a little bit.
30:34I got to week 17 with Charbonnet, Darnold and JSN and Charbonnet had a huge week 16.
30:39And there was this nut matchup with Darnold and JSN week 17 that they completely didn't hit, you know, another 15 points.
30:46And I'd be a lot wealthier man, you know, the difference between like 10th and 63rd is a lot of money.
30:53Oh, I feel you. Yeah. So speaking of like how people are handling things this year and how, you know, you kind of see it as being reactionary.
31:02First off, do you buy that drafters are approaching best ball differently this year, specifically with running backs?
31:08And then for you personally, are you going with mostly running back heavy builds?
31:12No. So I'm doing the same strategy that I did last year.
31:16We've seen running back price in my mind this year, kind of Wiley Coyote over the cliff a bit, you know, based
31:23on two years where running backs mostly stayed healthy.
31:26So that I feel is exactly what I mean when I talked about the short sighted way people are thinking about things.
31:33And you have even really smart people in the industry who I believe in, think of incredibly smart guys saying, got to
31:40get your running backs, got to get your running backs.
31:43Well, my strategy has been, again, the key thing is balance, right?
31:47You don't, you don't, I don't want to overreact and go to zero running back.
31:52It doesn't fit what I do. I also don't think it fits the board as much, but with the quarterbacks moving up
31:59with the running backs moving up, the one group that has really kind of fallen is the backup running backs who for
32:06years, it was like, you know, zero running back, get your backup running backs, you know?
32:11And this year, no one seems to be interested in them, but they're just as likely to crush when you need them as they ever were.
32:19So I've been doing a lot of hero running back builds.
32:23And again, I'll have a couple of, you know, the other big point of emphasis for me is to mix up my
32:30builds more, not get locked into one strategy. So, you know, Pat Corain, when he was a big zero running back guy,
32:37one, you know, best ball mania with a two running back start, right?
32:41You want to mix up your builds, but the majority of my builds are nothing makes me happier, especially early when you
32:48could get some really good people at the two, three turn, getting that Bichon and the Gibbs, and then really pushing running
32:55back to about the 10th round and then taking six or seven of them.
33:00I think fundamentally, one of the key things that I believe that's different than most best ball people is that early is
33:07when you want to take a chance on the late guys, because there's a lot of uncertainty.
33:12Now everyone seems to want to have certainty at the running back position.
33:16Well, in a couple of weeks, some of these late guys who are 18th, you know, 16th, 17th, 18th round guy are
33:23going to win a role or someone's going to get hurt and they're going to, you know, like, look at what happened
33:31with Bill last year on the Redskins. He went from an 18th round pick to like a 10th round pick, right?
33:37I want to have those kinds of guys in the 18th round, in the 17th round.
33:42And then when we start getting more certainty, then I will be more likely to go to five running backs instead of six or seven.
33:50But for now, I want that. I don't want to have to get the whole backfield to get lucky.
33:56But if I have that great hero running back, take another one in the Jalen Warren kind of remandre range, occasionally a
34:03little earlier in that Swift, Tootin, Henderson range, and then just really load up on guys in the 13th through the 18th.
34:11I know some of them aren't going to hit right out of the gate, but some of them might.
34:17And then the premise behind it is still those guys can hit in the playoff weeks when you really need them.
34:23So with that being said, are there any early round running backs rounds one, two, maybe into three that you are just not on this year?
34:32I mean, I have. So one other big point of emphasis for me is I don't want to completely fade and act like explosive guys are invisible.
34:40So you're right. So last year, Derek Henry was invisible to me.
34:44And boy, I was a genius right up until week 17 when he was the guy.
34:49You know, it's funny. It's funny. Derek Henry, specifically for me, I think I was at like four and a half, 5% last year with Henry.
34:58I had him on my finals team for the million.
35:01And so he, he was the, he was the key reason.
35:04Oh, you probably got a nice payday. Yeah. I was top, top 40 in the, in the Millie last year, but, but,
35:11but it was, but to your point, that's well, bro.
35:14Yeah, that's right. That's right. But, but, but to your point, to your point, I've found as well, I think this is
35:22what you're alluding to this, this notion. I wasn't like super high 100%.
35:26So I was underweight on Derek Henry, but those earlier round guys, it is very, very difficult.
35:31Even like a, you know, if you're not into Devon, I know it's, it's a sexy thing to not be in the Devon H.
35:39Yeah. I mean that guy that gets 5.7 yards to carry.
35:42I don't want any of him. Right. It's like, it's hard for me.
35:46I look, I, there, there are definitely some, some sites and some platforms and from a season long perspective and stuff where
35:54I think he is more of a fade, but regardless of that, I'm still drafting Devon H in because if you do
36:01enough drafts, you're also going to end up getting values in certain spots as well.
36:05Is that, is that basically how you're feeling though?
36:08Is that you want that, that blanket, if you will?
36:11I'm trying to be more open to explosive guys that I don't, I'm more open to guys who are, we need to
36:18build portfolios where we're overweight and underweight, but human nature is we don't like to make a lot of decisions.
36:25That's just part of being human. So if you don't like a guy, I mean, you hear it on Twitter every day,
36:32these are the six guys I will not be drafting in any draft today.
36:36Okay, great. Go, go for that. You know, I hope it wasn't Derek Henry week 17, right?
36:42So it's a combination of taking those guys occasionally, but also mixing them in on teams where maybe you're real happy with
36:49your team or they fall a little bit more than they, they normally do, but trying to put them in situations that's
36:56where correlating week 17, you know, like if I take Derek Henry, I'm much more likely to try and come back with T Higgins the next round.
37:05Right. Right. Because that could be a really great week 17 game.
37:08Again, that was the short sample last year, you know, the last two years.
37:13Cause it's funny. I've heard a lot of smart people say the same thing.
37:17I want to be more open to the guys that I would have faded.
37:22And it's cause Derek Henry went nuclear week 17.
37:25Kyle Pitts was another guy. A lot of people hated and that's who you needed week 15.
37:30The key is to do it smart and not get caught up in being one sided with your takes.
37:36Yeah. And then build and then building smarter, building every team as if it is going to make week 17.
37:43You, you don't know, you don't want to, you know, you don't want to hurt your chances of getting to week 17
37:50too much by just focusing on it, but you want every team that gets there to have a story.
37:56So like for me, tricking the pods, having that backup running back where with a stack where if one of the two
38:03goes nuclear week 16, now the other one is low owned week 17 and to get the backup running back with your stack doesn't cost you anything.
38:11Right. Like, right. You know, if, if you've got Brock Purdy and, and Evans, if you want to add Jordan James, you
38:18can get him in the 20th round on, on draft cards, right?
38:22Josh Allen, right. Should I take Josh Allen with cook?
38:25Well, maybe, but boy, I can get him with Ray Davis whenever I want.
38:30Let's talk about exposure really quick since we're kind of on the topic right here.
38:35The question I get a lot is sort of how much exposure should we have with a certain player?
38:41I know that you mentioned last year, you tend to max out around like that 25% mark on uncertain players.
38:47Has your philosophy changed at all year over year based on what you're, you're speaking on here?
38:53Or is it, you know, are you like, you know, I know people talk about that like 4% blanket and stuff and
39:00making sure that you have some exposure to some of those early round guys.
39:04There's other people who mock that and act like, and are like, well, I don't need, you know, and, and all I
39:11can say is I've always had a five to 15% rule for first and second round picks because they're all really good players.
39:19They're good players. Yeah. And every year you see huge win, the, the, the largest win rates are own advanced rates are
39:26almost always with guys in the first and second round.
39:29They're the guys who push the needle and the guys who get supercharged are the ones who not only have a good
39:36season, but go next to the guys who either get hurt or something crazy happened.
39:41Right. Yeah. And we can't, we don't know who's going to get hurt.
39:45I'll never forget. Famously. I was back in the saints days.
39:48I was like, I can't take Kamara or Michael Thomas there.
39:52There's no way both of them pay off their first round grade.
39:56Well, one year Kamara got hurt one year, Michael Thomas got hurt and I had none of the other guy basically.
40:02Yeah. Right. So I, I have a five to 15 rule.
40:06I tend to get to about 25 to 30 on a couple of people each year because you do want to take
40:13stands, but I'm, I'm spending a lot more time in time boxes, making sure that I'm mixing up who I'm taking players with.
40:20It's easy during a long season to get caught up in like right now.
40:25I'm super into Ray Davis. I wasn't a couple months ago, but I want to make sure that, I mean, I took
40:32some Ray Davis when I didn't like him. And because you have a group of guys you're hot on in any window,
40:39I'm trying to be more like an optimizer. And yes, I want to have a lot of Ray Davis right now.
40:46I think he's one of the best late round picks, but I also want to make sure I'm not forgetting some of
40:53the other guys that I like, just maybe not as much, but like DeMond Claiborne or a couple of the other late running backs, tank Bigsby.
41:01Cause we don't know who's going to get the injury.
41:04I want to mix it up more, but rules are made to be broken.
41:09And I do have a guy in the second round who I want to be about 20% on this year.
41:15So let's save that for one of your other questions.
41:18Yeah. We're going to, we're going to, uh, we're going to get the heat up in the kitchen a little bit.
41:25Yeah. Yeah. I'm not quite, not quite sweating yet, but by, by the end, by the end, I'm actually shocked.
41:31I'm not because number one, I'm a sweater. And number two, I I'm not even joking when I say that it's about 90 degrees.
41:39No, I believe you. You have my empathy and I appreciate after the prepare of preparing that I did that you, you're,
41:46you're, you're, you're playing through pain, right? You are, you are playing through pain and we appreciate it.
41:52Yes. All right. Let's, let's talk a tight end.
41:55I know that you, you do like Brock Bowers at cost.
41:58And that's the guy. Does that mean? Yeah. Does that mean that, okay.
42:02That's, that's, that's the dude. Yeah. I want, I want at least 20% of Brock Bowers this year.
42:08Yeah. I'm pretty into Brock Bowers too. Does that mean that you're not into the other earlier round tight ends?
42:14What's your general tight end approach? Is it like Brock Bowers or bust for you this year?
42:20It's not. I mean, you know, 20% means I've got 80% of other people.
42:24I think one of the interesting things about the way the board has laid out this year is with quarterback moving up with running back, moving up.
42:33Basically what you're running into is I like different tight end.
42:37There's a lot of tight end ADPs that I liked this year.
42:40So one of my other faith, like Fannin based on a couple nonsense things, and he doesn't have a quarterback.
42:47He's now like ninth round, 10th round, right? Like he's dropped about two rounds.
42:51And I, I sort of liked him where he was.
42:54So a couple months ago, I was really into Tyler craft.
42:58I thought he was a great pick, but now a little further back, you get not only Fannin who I like, but
43:05Laporta, I mean, really talented guy going very late.
43:08You know, you don't need it with tight ends.
43:11I found you don't need the number one tight end, but typically there's three guys every year that you want, you know,
43:18that just outperform the top three and they can come from anywhere on the board.
43:23So I mix up my tight end exposures. Historically tight ends do not have the advance rate that running backs and wide
43:30receivers, they don't move the needle in that way.
43:33Even Travis Kelsey in his best year, best years was about 40%, where you can get 50, 60% at the, at the right running back or wide receiver.
43:42So I would say that tight end for me is more about being different than the field and making sure that I have enough strength in that group.
43:50Yeah. That the, it, it, uh, accentuates what I'm doing with the rest of that team.
43:56Yeah. You mentioned it with quarterbacks and how quarterbacks are going earlier.
43:59It's been a really interesting conversation piece with, with guests on this show talking about the quarterback position.
44:05It's just strange how, you know, you get these typical QB ones, you know, Josh Allen aside, you know, you get the
44:12typical QB ones going maybe a little bit earlier than they otherwise would be, or, or in a spot where they generally
44:19would go, but the QB twos are getting pushed up.
44:22So that's exactly my point. What's happened is because running backs have been pushed up the top quarterbacks other than Josh Allen
44:29are actually cheaper than they were last year. Yeah.
44:32Yeah. Right. They're like, they're, they're more, they're more, I'm getting more of that tier than I've ever gotten in my best ball history.
44:40Let's say my best ball. But it ties into your original, uh, late round QB theory, right?
44:45If you, if you get two, but you get them in the window, right?
44:50Right. That was your theory. You get to, but two, but if my, you know, it was two top 15 guys, but
44:57if you get those two in the window, it could win.
45:01So to me, what we've seen is because everyone has to have, right.
45:05The cool kids are all getting three quarterbacks. So everyone needs three quarterbacks.
45:09It's pushed up the weaker quarterbacks. Right. But the good, really good guys who could break fantasy are actually cheaper.
45:15So I've got a lot of Jaden Daniels. I've got, um, a ton of Justin Herbert.
45:20I've got a lot of Trevor Lawrence. I love dart.
45:24I love Purdy. Um, there's like six or seven, eight guys in that range.
45:28And again, I don't want to win a quarterback because they're not the big advance rate position.
45:33And you don't know which game is going to blow up week 15, 16, 17.
45:38I want to mix all that up. And then there's one other guy who's going later than he had the last two years.
45:46And that's Baker Mayfield, who I really like who, if I miss, he's my number one target.
45:51He was hurt play through injury. Most guys would have went on IR.
45:55His offensive line was hurt. His receivers were hurt, but everyone just wants to focus in on what happened last year to that team.
46:03And of course, Mike Lev Evans left. Well, a book is still there.
46:07Not that I like him as much as his ADP, but Godwin is there.
46:12McMillan is one of my most known players. So that is really my focus as a quarterback.
46:17The really interesting part about QB for me is that when you finish a draft and you, you know, you're sitting in
46:24like round nine or something and you decide to go running back instead of getting a quarterback or something.
46:30And you finish a draft and you look back because, because if you do pass in round nine, round 10, which is
46:37where a lot of these really good, you know, lower QB ones, high end QB twos will end up going.
46:44Uh, if you pass on one and you then, you then feel the panic a little bit, you know, because other people
46:51are drafting three quarterbacks and you know that you need to complete stacks or you, you want a three quarterback build yourself
46:58and you finish the draft and you look at it and you're like, why didn't I just take Brock Purdy in round
47:0510 when CJ Stroud is going around and especially since the running backs, they are just okay.
47:10You're right. It's not, it's not the opportunity cautious is not significant enough for doing it.
47:15Right. Right. So, um, Eric Bimfor of spike week, I'm big into the spike week discord.
47:20Hello to those guys in there. I mean, it's the best discord for best ball.
47:25It is high level intelligence stuff that we can just bounce off each other every day.
47:30But Eric did a pod earlier in the year where he says, I'm just getting my two quarterbacks.
47:36I'm not, I'm just not playing that game. Right.
47:39Right. Occasionally, you know, I want some Jordan love.
47:42I like Baker Mayfield. I want some, Malik Willis, but I'm acting for the most part, like the guys after Malik Willis aren't there in 18 rounds.
47:50And a lot of times in 20 rounds, I just don't think those guys have the kind of upside that some of
47:57the late quarterbacks who went in the 16th and 18th round in previous years have.
48:02Right. Right. Right. So if that's what beats me this year, I'll just tip my hat.
48:07But I just don't want to chase quarterback in most of my drafts.
48:11Yeah. I mean, the only, the only reason I don't do it in every draft is because of the exposure discussion we
48:19just had, you know, like I still want some exposure to some of the guys where that cost is, is being incurred,
48:26but at the same, but at the same time, you know, over on draft Kings, for instance, you're going to go in
48:33the late seventh into the mid eighth round. And that's where Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, those guys are going to get drafted.
48:40And the wide receivers that you're drafting them over are like Cortland Sutton, you know, like, which it's fine.
48:46Like Cortland, you, you might love Cortland Sutton. That's fine.
48:49Or like, you might not love Cortland Sutton. Yeah.
48:52You might love, you might love Pat Bryant in the 20th, in the 20th round.
48:57Exactly. Exactly. But like, you know, someone like, like they're, they're players that really aren't going to, going to move you, you
49:04know, they're not going to get you so excited.
49:07A wide receiver, even the running backs where you're, you're in, you're in ambiguous backfield territory.
49:12So you do want to throw some darts, you know, eventually and get some exposure.
49:16But again, you can go a round or two later and on DK, Jonathan Brooks is still going that late.
49:23Like he's still just as much of an upside swing as some of the, the other running backs you'd be getting two rounds earlier.
49:31So like, again, I just feel like the way that the, the, the typical draft goes for me is that I'm staring at these quarterbacks.
49:39Jalen Hertz goes in round seven consistently, you know, and I'm, I'm staring at these guys and I'm like, there's not a
49:46big enough difference between the running backs and wide receivers that I'd be drafting here versus what I'd be getting two rounds later.
49:53Whereas if quarterback starts going and the run starts, you can't just say, I'm going to ignore this run because quarterback or supply does run out.
50:01You know, it does get to a point where you're like, Oh crap, Bryce Young is the top available quarterback.
50:08And Bryce Young for, from, from my perspective, I just don't look at a guy like Bryce Young and think this guy's
50:15going to win me anything in fantasy football. You know, like, it's just, it's just not something that we can word pretty much the same thing.
50:23Yeah. It could happen. Anything could happen. Yeah. I would argue even with Ward, at least like we haven't seen, you know,
50:30with Bryce Young, we have like multiple seasons of data of him and in this offense and all, you know, there's, there's
50:37at least some like of this, like mystique, you know, with, with a guy like Ward, whereas like Bryce Young, I'm like,
50:44we, we know what we're getting at this point.
50:47You know, generally too inconsistent. It's not that he can't have good weeks, but he's, he's not going to really help your advance rate.
50:55Most likely. Yeah. It doesn't, it doesn't help that he has a week 17 matchup against, against the Seahawks.
51:01Yeah. You know, and again, you, we can overrate that, you know, the bad matchups a little bit, but again, there's two
51:08advantages and you've hit on them, but I'll summarize one is they're just the best picks where they go, right?
51:14They're cheaper than where, you know, Drake may going in the fifth, sixth round.
51:19I mean, Drake may, you know, I thought of something interesting because everyone talks about how they had such a bad schedule
51:26last year and they're not going to be able to do it again this year because they have a better schedule.
51:32And then I saw someone post on Twitter, just basically they shut Drake may down in the second half last year.
51:39Right. Yeah. So it's actually a good thing that they're playing a tougher schedule.
51:44If you're a Drake may guy, if I have the stack, it's easy.
51:48If I have lad McConkie, I'm taking Justin Herbert if he's there.
51:52If I have one of the Dallas wide receivers, I'm taking Dak.
51:55There's enough really good ones in that range. You know, it's not like you're going to get too much of them because there's like 12 of them.
52:04Right. You know, you know, from Lamar down to, for me, it's Dart or Mahomes.
52:09Yeah. You know, it's like 12 guys. Right. Yeah.
52:12You can even go, I mean, you can even argue to Kyler Bo Nix.
52:16I like Kyler a lot. I think Kyler is, has always been pretty good for fantasy football.
52:22Exactly. And people don't like him because he can't do this and he can't do that.
52:27I'm definitely overweight on Kyler. He's another one of my, that's like, if I have Justin Jefferson or I take Addison and
52:34I miss on that second quarterback, you know, like, so what I'm doing.
52:38And then there's a couple like Drake may Justin Herbert, who you can back stack in that range, Jackson Dart, you can back stack.
52:46You get Isaiah likely, you take Mooney. It's not the best thing, but it's, it's perfectly reasonable.
52:51Right. Yeah. And those guys can score points and get you there without a true number one.
52:57Right. We like Ladman Konki's going as the true number one.
53:00Is he going to be maybe probably, but maybe not.
53:03Maybe one of my favorite players, a Rondé Gadsden is the guy you need.
53:08Right. So I think that you're accomplishing two things.
53:11You're getting a really great value overall to build your team, which to me is always my most important thing.
53:17I want as much talent on my team as I can.
53:21And then I want to take all these other strategies to fit it together and make a coherent story.
53:27But the second thing is if you get those two quarterbacks, you don't have to think about quarterback anymore.
53:33Right. It's out. You know, like if I take Brock Bowers in the second and I get two quarterbacks in the one
53:40in the fifth, one in the eighth, I've stacked.
53:43Boy, it makes the rest of the draft really easy.
53:46I can just cherry pick value. Right. Guys that I really like that fell in that draft.
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54:59That's one thing that goes unnoticed I think a lot in these discussions just about like roster optimization and strategy and such
55:06is the flexibility in the late rounds and obtaining some of that the falling value like you're saying.
55:12You know if you if you're stuck and you're like oh crap I only have three running backs and it's round 15
55:19or something like that and you're like I gotta just pound running back from here on out then you're going to be
55:26missing out on all of the other values that potentially exist at at why and it's so tilting as you're doing that
55:33you're sitting there and you're seeing this guy who's sitting two rounds later than he typically sits and you you can't go
55:40after him just because of the the way your particular build is sitting right.
55:44So I do think that the flexibility aspect of things is something that really does go unnoticed.
55:50Yeah and I think that's an advanced best ball thought you know and it's not one that'll get you clicks.
55:56Sure. But it is really really important to be a really good best ball player in my mind.
56:02Yeah. Yeah. And also knowing where in each draft the values are right.
56:06Like if I like Jonah Coleman a lot. Right.
56:09I like Emmett Johnson a lot. I like Claiborne.
56:12I like Tank Bigsby. So I know those guys will be there.
56:16So I just need to have enough strength in my running position back position early that I can mix and match them
56:23while you know like lately I've been very hot on Denzel Boston.
56:27I'm very high on Jalen McMillan. You know where I don't have to take a running back there if I don't want to.
56:34Yeah. So one of my key things that I've always focused on is sometimes there's someone when you pick in the fourth,
56:41fifth, sixth round that you're just so excited about that he's there you're taking them.
56:46Right. Doesn't matter about your build. You got plenty of time to fill it out.
56:51But as a fallback if there's a bunch of guys and I'm like eh.
56:55Right. I want to keep my build as even as I can because then it gives me the flexibility to not have happened what you just mentioned later.
57:04Yeah. It's underrated. It's underrated. And this is this honestly to me through doing this is one of the disadvantages to doing
57:11a zero or a true zero RB draft is is that you you do lack flexibility once you get out of like
57:18round six is that you if you get a falling wide receiver value it's not nearly as easy to snag that value
57:25up and snatch it because you are already overweight at that position and you're gonna you're gonna be struggling in other positions.
57:32I'm not saying that you can't go zero RB.
57:35I'm just saying that it's a thing that you should be thinking about as you deploy these strategies as your drafts are going on.
57:43You know, it's something that that should be top of mind for a couple years.
57:48Zero RB became a cult. And if you didn't do it, you know, you're the cult was like, oh, no, you know,
57:55and now the cult's telling you you have to have three running, which is so funny that the same guys who would
58:02shame you for not going zero running back are now shaming you because you're not drafting three running backs in the first four rounds.
58:09Well, the first year I did this is your three of the show.
58:14And the first year I did it, I didn't have great success with my it was the first year that I was
58:21really max entering and play, you know, doing like 1000 to get good at it.
58:25And yeah, and like I had always played, you know, like, but not to that volume and such.
58:31And I went, I went so heavy with the same structure over and over again, largely zero RB.
58:37And I had a bad year, you know, just not a good season, changed it up last year.
58:43You know, I'm doing it again this year where I still have some zero RB teams.
58:48Don't get me wrong. Like every once in a while, I'll draft every year.
58:52I will have again, like if I'm in round four and I've got two wide receivers and Bach Bowers and neighbors is
58:59sitting there at the end of the fourth round somehow, I'm taking neighbors and I'm going to figure out running back in that.
59:07Right. Right. Like you can still like, yeah, you still do those things based on the following values and such.
59:13But, but I, but I do think that, um, you know, being so stuck on that one approach, like I said, and
59:20like you were saying, uh, it's so important to recognize how handcuffed it makes you as you go through the draft.
59:27If you're not, you know, balancing things out, if you don't just know that if you're not having about, you don't have to have the balanced approach.
59:35I'm saying though, if you don't have that balanced approach, understand that that means you're not going to have as easy of
59:42a time finding those falling values late. I tend to be too risk averse, right?
59:47I think every human is either leans a little too risk averse or a little too safety averse.
59:53You need to know yourself and you need to push yourself out of whatever your comfort zone is because everyone's a hero
60:00and, and boasting that they, you know, that I don't care about safety.
60:04You know, I'm here to win a million dollars.
60:07And then I can't tell you how many guys like that eventually took on my strategy for exposure because I got that strategy.
60:14Cause one year I went real heavy and I got crushed, right?
60:18Smart people learn from their mistakes. I want to talk about week 17.
60:22Cause we, we kind of touched on it earlier.
60:25I saw a really interesting theory. I might've come from Pete over that, but he was talking about how people aren't talking
60:32about week 17 correlation, which you alluded to earlier as much this year, partially because there are so many streamers that are
60:39streaming with overlays and tools and such and optimizers for what, while they're drafting.
60:44And so they're not having to speak aloud about those correlations.
60:47Do you buy into that at all? Or do you think that it's just one of those things where it's just not
60:54a hot enough topic for people to really get into?
60:58Yeah. I lean towards it being that it was the hot topic for two years and now it's not.
61:04Yeah. I went to, um, the spike week tools and I looked at every early correlation.
61:09So like Derek Henry, how, how many times he was with Jamar Chase, Chase, right.
61:14Higgins for every week, 17 game. And I've done that in past years.
61:18And it, you would see a 10, 15, sometimes 20% increase.
61:21If there was a guy who was correlated, I don't think people are correlating early intentionally.
61:26And I think that's the big advantage you know, a lot of people also think, and there's nothing wrong with doing this.
61:33Like if I have Drake May and Pat Bryant, who I like anyway, is in the 17th, you know, 17th, boy, that makes it easy, right?
61:42I get a week 17 correlation, but so many times when we just drop in a late guy in to either a
61:49stack or a correlation, it doesn't have the effect of doing it with really talented guys early.
61:54And you add that to something again, that we talk about a lot in spike week, you know, ADP is so static
62:01early and really the chance of these guys be, you know, like what's the chance that's, you know, Saquon Barkley is going
62:08to be that much better than Chase Brown. Right.
62:11Right. Or Brees Hall. That whole tier is, yeah.
62:14A lot of those guys are just a giant tier.
62:17So, so mix it up. And part of that, not all the time you mix it up, but having unique early pairings,
62:24even in tournament basketball, it's really important. I think in which I don't play like on drafters because I can't in Pennsylvania,
62:31but I think that moving guys up, it just doesn't happen.
62:35And Moxie, who's one of the guys that he, he, he did studies on that.
62:40People just don't move up. So, you know, sometimes I'll move up a Zay Flowers so that I can get him with T Higgins later.
62:48They go right near each other. And now Zay's moved up a little bit.
62:52So occasionally you can get it, but getting those correlations early, even if you don't end up getting one of the two
62:59quarterbacks in the game, you know, those guys could, you know, a few years ago it was, they were late, but I'm on Ross St.
63:07Brown and Penny both went off in a week 17 game.
63:11Yep. And if you didn't have that correlation, you didn't win money.
63:15Right. So there's a, there's definitely advantages to it.
63:17And there's more advantages because people aren't doing it as much.
63:21Yeah. I, I, I've had this conversation with some people where I think ADP in general is just so forced by stacking, of course, right.
63:29You know, quarterbacks will go Joe Burrow goes way earlier than he probably should.
63:33Cause if the chase guy doesn't get him, the Higgins guy's going to take it.
63:38Exactly. Exactly. And you can always tell, you know, you know, the unstacked quarter, the guys, the quarterbacks like Jackson Dart who
63:45don't have, you know, I mean, obviously you have Malik neighbors, but people are, or if you're a neighbors and there's only
63:52one player for Jackson Dart to really stack early when that's the case, then those guys can fall a little bit from a pure value perspective.
64:01But then the other, the other piece of that though, from, from an ADP standpoint is, is the, the, the stacking stuff,
64:08you know, the week 17 stuff that you're talking about a little bit.
64:12And the, it's very easy to get in this like robotic mode where you're like, Oh, I don't really want to take Kenneth Walker at 202.
64:20If sometimes he's going to fall to 206, because I can just wait and get the value when that draft happens.
64:27I'm in the 206 spot as opposed, but in the end, it's like, there's, you gotta, you gotta think about the probability
64:34and the realistic outcomes of all of these players and how tight, you know, there's a reason that they're tiered together.
64:41There's going to be, there's going to be 600,000 or so, you know, teams.
64:45Right. And if Walker goes off two, six or two, five and 500,000 of them, what, you know, if you take him
64:52at one eight and then come back with someone else in that same tier.
64:57Yeah. It might not be the most optimal thing.
64:59Walker might not deserve to go one eight because if he did, he probably would, but that doesn't mean in one season,
65:07he couldn't be the guy that, you know, like I push up as Ashton Gentry, I'm not that high on CMC or Jonathan Taylor at ADP.
65:15I'll push up Ashton Gentry because most people who pass on CMC and Taylor are going to take either Amon Ra, Jefferson or CD Land.
65:23So I'll move up Gentry or sometimes Barkley. All right.
65:26Give me three players, good or bad, that you think are just wildly mispriced right now in, in best ball.
65:32You know, I think a lot of them, um, ADP has gotten very efficient.
65:37A lot of the players I thought were badly mispriced.
65:40The field has adjusted on. I pretty much covered a lot of the guys already.
65:45I talked about Ray Davis. Um, not only does he have contingent value of cook gets hurt.
65:50They're talking about giving Davis, uh, cook more passing game work.
65:54Yeah. And to me, that means less Ty Johnson and more Ray Davis.
65:58He might have a bit of a floor. There's a couple guys.
66:02I'm not on a make a book at cost.
66:05Yeah. He had that fast start. He faded. Yes.
66:08He was hurt a little bit, but I think there's a much better chance that Godwin or Jamie Jalen McMillan end up
66:15being, you know, I think those three guys might all end up being pretty good together.
66:20And Dick Buka goes really high. One I'm fading is Devante Adams.
66:24Um, I just think his ADP it's fallen, but he's really getting up there in age and he was propped up by just 18 touchdowns.
66:32Something like that. Crazy, crazy touchdown. Not that he can't do it again.
66:36Right. But again, uh, that, uh, you know, he's just not, that's one guy that I, I, I still would have liked to have seen fall more.
66:44Um, how about you? Do you have a couple guys?
66:48Because I really am struggling to answer that question right now.
66:51There's guys I like a little, you know, there's just nobody I want to like plant a flag on.
66:57The hardest part of my draft guide this year was probably, I mean, the research was a lot, but like just the,
67:04the players to avoid section was, was tough. I mean, it's the, the market seems pretty efficient right now.
67:10I, I went with the approach more so with my avoid section for the guide of like looking at specific platforms and saying this guy's just wet.
67:19Cause it's a lot easier instead of looking at more consensus, but strictly from like a best ball perspective, you know, quarterback
67:26is always a position where you can't really have a strong take because you're just simply stacking for the most part.
67:33Right. Like, you know, in a, a managed league, I'm going to probably not be as into a Joe burrow, but if
67:40I have Jamar chase or T Higgins and best ball, I'll still take Joe burrow.
67:45You know, I'm a little bit afraid as you are of, of Jonathan Taylor, uh, at his cost, just because of, especially
67:52DK where, you know, you get it's, it's full PPR.
67:55So it's a little bit of a, of a difference for a guy like JT who who's maxed out an 11% target share.
68:02I've got an interesting thought. Yeah. What's, what's that with JT, you know, like in DFS in the old days, FanDuel and
68:09DraftKings, you know, some Sundays you play a lot of one guy on one site because he was priced differently than another.
68:16I'm having a hard time drafting some of the pass catching backs.
68:20Not that there's as many as there used to be on underdog, but they go basically in the same range on DraftKings
68:27guys like Woody Marks, Dylan Sampson, I think is a tremendous.
68:31I agree. DraftKings. Yeah. I've got, um, so yeah, I, I think that is one area where I, I think I'm seeing
68:38a lot of value is in those pass catching backs on DraftKings.
68:41Yeah. Yeah. Agreed. I'll say one, one player that I am very underweight on and it's kind of contrarian because there's a
68:49lot of big names in the space that are very high on him as a sort of a, a middle round running
68:56back pick for, for just getting some points is Tony Pollard.
68:59I should have mentioned him. I, I have, I think I have 1% Tony Pollard and last year I had 23%.
69:06Yeah. It's really, really a hard bet for me when you look at how he performed last year, specifically as a receiver,
69:13you know, as yards per hour run was really poor.
69:16It's been pouring out for multiple seasons. He's not a young man anymore.
69:20He's not a young man. He, he, he had pretty bad splits with Tajay Spears last year, even if you're just looking at, uh, you know, usage, right.
69:29And as his route share when Tajay Spears was healthy.
69:32And I don't think Nick Singleton is necessarily a zero all season long.
69:36You know, there's a chance that we see some Singleton down the stretch.
69:41And, and again, one of the pass catchers that you're talking about, you know, Dylan Sampson late on DK Tajay Spears in
69:48the same boat where, where he could easily just be a pass catching, you know, uh, play from behind kind of back, which is how he's been deployed.
69:57I know it's a new coaching staff and such, but no, yeah, but Tennessee's offense could suck realistically, you know, like that's also where things could go south.
70:06So I found myself in that Pollard range going more with like Jalen Warren, Ramondre Stevenson players that I've the same, you
70:13know, just like, and I really like Warren because he could be the guy that they're dropping off 50, 60 Rogers could be dropping off 50, 60 passes.
70:22And ultimately I think he's a better running back than Rico Dowdle too.
70:26Yeah, I, I agree. Uh, Jalen Warren, I think Jalen Warren, and this is maybe a slightly hot take, but like, I
70:33think he's one of the most underrated, like real life running backs in the NFL period.
70:38Like he's really good at all. And it's a new staff.
70:41It's a new game. Yeah. And I know that people are attached to the McCarthy Dowdle thing and I get it, but
70:48I I've, I've leaned more Warren than, than Dowdle.
70:51Yeah. Everyone's attached to somebody until the other guy's better.
70:55Yeah. Right. Like ultimately people underestimate how much coaches want to win and how much Aaron Rogers is going to be like,
71:02get this guy off the field and give me Jalen Warren.
71:05Yeah. Great pass protector, great pass catcher. I mean, there's a lot to like about Jalen Warren.
71:11Yeah. Um, I, I, I do think that is definitely a really, really good one.
71:15Um, I like that. And, uh, Warren has become one of my favorite players.
71:20And I just think that in general, one of the underestimated things that I beat myself up for, for not doing in
71:27the past that I've gotten better at is if I don't like Pollard and there's really only two guys, Singleton could do
71:34it, but he's coming off the foot. I I'm up to about 18% on Tajay Spears.
71:39I've always had a lot of Spears. I loved him coming out.
71:43I thought he had some really unique skills and, um, I think, but from just a strategic standpoint, if you're really down
71:50on one guy, make sure you take the backup because then you're getting double pay.
71:55If you're right. Yeah. That helped me so much last year with Chuba and Rico.
71:59I was, I was fading Chuba last year and naturally just gravitated towards Rico and it's true.
72:05Yeah. It's very true. All right. Before I let you go, I am borderline sweating.
72:10You can kind of see it if you're watching on my takes weren't hot enough.
72:15I'm sorry. Well, that's what I'm saying. You got to give me one fire bold take before I let you go as I do with every guest.
72:23So, so, so throw it out there. I got two.
72:26One is that Brock Bowers leads the NFL in receptions.
72:30Okay. I like that. And the other one is that one of Jonah Coleman or DeMond Claiborne workout roles to start the season.
72:37Yeah. And, and, and, and, and that one of them ends up being the lead back going down the stretch.
72:43Can I, can I tell people a little bit of a secret here?
72:47First off, I've loved this conversation because it literally just devolved into a conversation, you know, it wasn't, you know, this is
72:55what I think becoming a best ball bro is all about and, and what I think people like to hear, but I'll, I'll share a little secret.
73:03Jonah Coleman right now is by far my highest exposed player on draft.
73:07What do you like about him? So I, my, my stance on Coleman from a prospecting standpoint and like with my model
73:14and going through all of that was Denver looked at JK Dobbins and said, Hey, we like you, but we know that you're not durable.
73:22Right. And, and not only that, they use JK Dobbins in a very one dimensional way last year.
73:28He was not a pass catcher. And they used Harvey pretty much the same.
73:33Yeah. And Harvey, Harvey was their pass catcher and they're like the, I have a stance that I think Dobbins is actually
73:40the player that I'm going to be, that I'm least high on of the three by far, just because I don't see the ceiling outcome for him enough.
73:49Just, just given the pass catching role that he has, but with, with RJ Harvey, you know, they, they certainly see Saul play.
73:56I, you know, I thought as a prospect, he was a little bit overvalued by the market.
74:01I didn't mind him and redraft last year, but from a dynasty standpoint, I wasn't like jumping for joy about Harvey.
74:08I didn't like his tape. Yeah. With that being said, I think he did have some explosion.
74:14I do think that he showed off some, some pass catching chops last year.
74:18Right. And so, so in that environment, you know, that he's getting some high, like if you look at his weighted opportunity
74:25last year, even with Dobbins, it wasn't as, because I think a lot of times people understate the value of a target, especially in a full PPR platform.
74:34And anyway, so they're looking at Jonah Coleman and they're saying, Hey, we tried to rely on you down the stretch at what you, you weren't reliable enough.
74:43You know, one of the worst players in rushing yards over expected per attempt last year could play a pass catching role.
74:50I think they still are going to use him in the red zone and in that sort of like gadgety way that
74:57they did last year, but Dobbins, they said, Hey, I don't know if you could really carry this workload for us for the entire season.
75:05So let's get one of the most boring all around backs in this year's draft and Jonah Coleman, who is not explosive.
75:12That's what RJ Harvey brings to the table, but he can pass pro.
75:16I think he, I think he's more explosive than people give him credit.
75:20There's a possibility. There's a definite possibility of that, but, but at the very, but I, but I do think that Harvey is more explosive.
75:28There's no doubt about that from a trade perspective.
75:31Completely agree. I'm not a Harvey guy, but that's, he is right.
75:35So, so my stance with Coleman is that he backs up both positions.
75:39He can play a pass catching role for them because he's, he proved that in college and he was good at doing
75:46that in college as a three down guy, but he can be a bruiser too.
75:51And he might even get some goal line work as the, as the season goes on, especially if they're worried about Dobbins
75:58and injury, et cetera, and seeing that short yardage stuff.
76:01So to me, Coleman is someone who should get some work in a three headed backfield.
76:06Like I think he's going to get something in that backfield and you're buying 15th, 16th round and draft Kings.
76:13You're buying points late. That's all it is to me.
76:16But, but he has also multiple outs for contingent upside, right?
76:20Where, where if one of those two get hurt, he's all of a sudden going to be a 10 plus touch per game type player.
76:28This ties into one of my hot takes and, and you back to your first question.
76:33Everyone is convinced this running back class is crap, right?
76:36You've heard it and, and, and overall it is.
76:39Yeah, you're right. You heard it from me. It does.
76:42But that doesn't mean there aren't going to be two or three guys who, you know, the NFL needs running backs every year.
76:49Guys get hurt, guys age out. So to me, Jonah Coleman does a couple of things.
76:54One, he is very good at cutbacks. And when you have a big offensive line, that guy who can make that one cut, get up field.
77:03I think Sean Payton's going to love that. Sean Payton's also going to love the fact that he can be on the
77:10field and you don't know whether it's going to be run or pass.
77:14Right. Where the Dobbins, yes, sometimes it's going to be a pass, but most of the, but my point is Jonah Coleman can play both sides.
77:22He can pass block. And the weird thing is he had more college receptions in each of his last two years than RJ Harvey did.
77:30Yes. Okay. Now that doesn't mean a heck of a lot, you know, college reception totals are completely unsticky.
77:36But when I first looked that up and saw it, I was like, there's something no one thinks.
77:42I mean, even when I look at my adjusted receiving numbers in the ZAP model, Jonah Coleman still looks better than what
77:49RJ Harvey did from a receiving standpoint. I'm glad to hear that because it's what I saw on tape.
77:55Yeah. And I'm no expert, but I, I, I really Jonah Coleman is an Emmett Johnson have been my two highest own guys.
78:03I just think Coleman has a clear path to being the number one.
78:07It's just weird. Like I just didn't like JK Dobbins.
78:10I loved them last year. I dropped a ton of Dobbins.
78:13I had him as a, as a target. I love that we're just ending this show on, on some random Broncos backfield.
78:20That's what best ball bros do. Dobbins. Dobbins did not have the ceiling and the, the, the season, even when you just
78:28look at his output that I think people believe he did.
78:31It's just that they got him at a good price and he was a value piece for them.
78:37And the other thing they brought him back, but it wasn't like he was a priority bring back.
78:43He was out there for a couple of weeks before they brought him back.
78:47Yeah. Yeah. And he's coming off an injury that no one talks about.
78:51That's the other piece to it. Yeah. Right. Right.
78:54So yeah. I mean, I could easily, you know, we could look back at this in, January.
79:00I didn't mind Claiborne. My, you know, he's undersized.
79:02That's, that's the biggest issue. I think I've oddly this season turned into, I've never been a Jordan Mason guy.
79:09I'm drafting Jordan Mason for the first time. I've been talked into it.
79:13My fantasy career. Spike week guys got me taking some.
79:16Yeah. Yeah. I've been, I've been for the first time drafting Jordan Mason when I've, you know, railed against them historically.
79:23I kind of dug them, but you know, I, I don't know.
79:27My memory must've been bad. I didn't think he was that good last year, but the numbers that Eric, Eric shared.
79:33Yeah. So I think, you know, I think the Vikings offense, I think the bucks offense are two really less expensive offenses
79:40that could be top five to seven offense. Right.
79:43That could be good this year. Yeah. Agreed. All right, Todd, let everyone know where they can find you all that good stuff.
79:51This was a great conversation. I, I have, I'm, I'm retired right now.
79:55I'm, I'm nowhere. I'm not podcasting on my own.
79:58Um, uh, I had a really good concept. No one wanted to hear about it.
80:03And I, you know, so I am just trying to prove everyone wrong by kicking everyone's ass in best ball.
80:09I love it. I love it. Good stuff. And, but you're on, you are on Twitter though.
80:14Uh, at best ball NFL and, uh, pretty easy to remember.
80:18And I really enjoyed this and I hope we fight each other out for the top prize, uh, on draft Kings this year.
80:25Agreed. Agreed. Yeah. You were on last year, had some really great feedback from people.
80:30They loved it. So I had to bring you back again this year and I really enjoyed, you know, your insight.
80:37Uh, I think you bring, you know, some uniqueness to the, to the table from an analysis standpoint.
80:43So thank you for your time. Everyone else listening.
80:45Thank you for your time as well. Hopefully you liked, you know, the little rambling that, that Todd and I had at the end.
80:53No, no, I, I, I, I'm always very succinct.
80:56Yeah. Right. Right. But make sure you check out late round.com.
80:59Uh, the draft guide is out. That's being updated weekly.
81:03Check that out. It is for sale. Make sure you're subscribed to the YouTube channel and the podcast, but otherwise everyone, thanks for tuning in.
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