The Show: Make or Break Areas of Your Draft, Camp News, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 5 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 27, 2026
Published
Thu, August 27, 2026
36
Player insights
35
Players mentioned
Topics
Isiah PachecoAshton JeantyBaker MayfieldBreece HallBrock BowersBrock PurdyCam WardChase BrownChristian McCaffreyChuba HubbardDavid MontgomeryDe'Von AchaneDeshaun WatsonDrake London
Player analysis
Player insights
Ashton Jeanty
NegativeInjury18:22
Following an injury that caused him to be helped off the field, JJ Zachariason has moved Ashton Jeanty to the bottom of his round two tier (alongside Amari Hampton, Devon Achane, and Derrick Henry). He expects Jeanty to miss time and advises that he may no longer be a target in the draft guide due to the risk.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveBreakout58:28
JJ Zachariason believes Baker Mayfield is primed for a bounce-back season, noting he looks to be in excellent physical shape.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveValue25:33
JJ Zachariason is higher on Breece Hall than the general market, noting he has been drafting him in the early third round of managed leagues.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveValue50:57
JJ Zachariason is high on Brock Bowers but notes that drafting him is a "make or break" decision that significantly impacts roster construction. He is more inclined to draft him in shallower leagues with fewer starting spots.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveValue56:53
JJ Zachariason identifies Brock Purdy as the best value in the QB2 range, noting his consistent top-eight fantasy performance and underrated rushing ability.
Insight pageCam Ward
NegativeProjection15:33
JJ Zachariason notes that while Cam Ward has a poor year-one statistical profile, he could be a fantasy-friendly option if the team's defense struggles, potentially mirroring a Jacoby Brissett-type outcome.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue48:03
JJ Zachariason prefers drafting Chase Brown over Devon Achane, citing Brown's stability and high-end production (21 PPR points per game) when playing with Joe Burrow last season.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveValue28:54
JJ Zachariason has moved Christian McCaffrey into the same tier as Puka Nacua and Ja'Marr Chase to provide flexibility for drafters who want to secure an elite running back, despite preferring the receivers in a vacuum.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeValue25:48
JJ Zachariason views Chuba Hubbard as an above-average back but notes he lacks the special ability to break seasons and has not been an efficient pass catcher. However, Zachariason suggests Hubbard is an intriguing draft target in Best Ball when available in the 10th round, as he is no longer a hard fade.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeUsage28:47
JJ Zachariason expresses concern regarding David Montgomery's workload, noting that the risk profile involves other running backs in the backfield potentially siphoning touches. Zachariason ranks Montgomery at market value but warns that his lack of elite target share makes him fragile if his volume is not locked in.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeValue48:03
JJ Zachariason notes that while Devon Achane is being drafted ahead of Chase Brown, he prefers Brown due to the uncertainty surrounding the Dolphins' backfield changes.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeProjection32:26
JJ Zachariason expresses skepticism about Deshaun Watson's fantasy value, stating he does not believe Watson possesses significant upside at this stage of his career.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveUsage35:04
JJ Zachariason highlights that Drake London's efficiency metrics, including a 31% targets per route run rate and 2.75 yards per route run, were significantly higher when Michael Penix was on the field compared to when he was not.
Insight pageIsiah Pacheco
NegativeBust41:16
JJ Zachariason expresses skepticism regarding Isaiah Pacheco, noting he has not drafted him this offseason due to concerns about his talent level and history of injuries throughout his short career.
Insight pageNegativeBust41:54
JJ Zachariason believes Isiah Pacheco is "cooked" relative to his ADP, citing his history of injuries throughout his short career and general volatility.
Insight pageJalen Nailor
PositiveSleeper31:43
Jalen Nailor remains an attractive late-round dart because he showed upside in the slot last year. He could see increased opportunities if Kayshon Boutte struggles to adapt to the perimeter role.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeValue58:16
JJ Zachariason views Jared Goff as an arbitrage play for Matthew Stafford, noting there is not a massive difference between the two in fantasy value.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveValue24:51
JJ Zachariason prefers Jonathan Brooks over Chuba Hubbard, noting that he flipped his stance in mid-July after seeing Brooks' health progress. Zachariason highlights Brooks' superior pass-catching upside and strong collegiate profile as reasons for his excitement, despite the current ADP gap in Best Ball.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveValue58:34
JJ Zachariason and his co-host are high on Jordan Love, noting he is a consistent target in drafts because he is available late and leads a strong offense with multiple viable pass-catchers.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveInjury36:46
JJ Zachariason is moving Josh Downs down in his rankings due to a calf injury and the presence of Keenan Allen, who has historically been a target-heavy, quarterback-friendly receiver.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeInjury42:16
JJ Zachariason expresses concern regarding Josh Jacobs' potential suspension, noting that team comments about preparing for his absence often hint at a real issue, aligning with reports from Adam Schefter.
Insight pageKareem Hunt
PositiveRole42:10
JJ Zachariason notes that if Kareem Hunt remains with the Lions, he could potentially earn playing time in that backfield.
Insight pageKayshon Boutte
PositiveRole30:18
Kayshon Boutte is expected to replace Jaden Higgins as a deep threat and play in two-wide receiver sets for the Texans. JJ Zachariason believes he is a solid player who could see a decent target share, especially with the team likely running more 12 personnel.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
PositiveUsage37:13
JJ Zachariason notes that Keenan Allen remains a target-earning machine, having led his previous two teams in targets per route run, and suggests he can provide usable weeks in deeper leagues or Best Ball formats.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue48:26
JJ Zachariason is high on Kenneth Walker, preferring him over Devon Achane and Amarine Hampton. He expects Walker to benefit from easier defensive fronts and believes he can be a strong asset in the passing game.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
PositiveSleeper42:55
JJ Zachariason continues to recommend MarShawn Lloyd as a late-round dart throw in fantasy drafts.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeBust57:30
JJ Zachariason warns that Matthew Stafford has regression coming, noting that he provides little rushing value and would likely drop to low-end QB1 territory if his touchdown rate regresses.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeInjury38:35
JJ Zachariason acknowledges that Mike Evans' inability to stay on the field due to multiple preseason injuries is concerning, though he notes that teams are currently being extremely cautious with veteran players.
Insight pageMike Washington Jr.
NegativeValue21:51
JJ Zachariason notes that he drafted Mike Washington in round nine, but clarifies he would not draft him over players like Bucky Irving in round five, even if Ashton Jeanty were out for the season.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveProjection33:52
Nico Collins receives a slight bump in outlook due to the expectation that the Texans will run more 12 personnel, which typically leads to more hyper-targets for the primary wide receivers.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeBust57:19
JJ Zachariason expresses concern about Patrick Mahomes, citing his career-high rushing production last year as a potential regression candidate and noting general fear surrounding his outlook.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeInjury42:21
JJ Zachariason references Adam Schefter's report suggesting Puka Nacua could face a suspension that might cause him to miss the season opener.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveProjection21:31
JJ Zachariason emphasizes that Rhamondre Stevenson is a high-quality back, citing his number one ranking in both rushing yards over expected per rush and catch rate over expected among qualified running backs last season. Zachariason notes that Stevenson is not a declining veteran, but a clear lead back who is currently a standout in training camp, leading him to prefer Stevenson over Treyveon Henderson.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue45:36
JJ Zachariason explicitly prefers Stefon Diggs over Dajon Stribling, stating he loves Diggs this year and believes he is significantly undervalued.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeValue14:59
JJ Zachariason maintains a fade stance on Tony Pollard, noting that Tajay Spears is receiving more preseason work than the market anticipated.
Insight pageTrebor Pena
PositiveSleeper44:04
JJ Zachariason notes Trevor Pena has been "crushing it" in the preseason with a 42% targets-per-route-run rate, making him an interesting dynasty prospect despite a crowded Jaguars depth chart.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. The Show is a production of the most ambitious ideas and projects.
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0:32You're about to listen to the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube.
0:36If you'd like to catch the show live this off-season, you can head to the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, youtube.com slash atLateroundFF.
0:43We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode.
0:48Welcome in, welcome in. It's the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show, sponsored by DraftKings.
0:52David Kitchen here alongside my goat. Respect my goat, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:56If you didn't see my tweets on X earlier this week, I came home from a flag football practice for my daughter,
1:02logged in to the members-only stream, and I see JJ drafting a team while answering members' questions while walking on a treadmill.
1:09Yeah. Yeah. Got, um... I think I got, like, three miles-ish in?
1:13I can't remember what it clocked at. Yeah, it wasn't a slow pace.
1:17You know, for those that know, like, the walking treadmill, generally it's like, you know, you put it on one and a
1:24half or two, and you're just like, you're just wanting to move.
1:28Yeah, I was at 2.2, I think, during it.
1:31Yeah. Um, I'm a fast walker, though. Like, I have that problem whenever I go out on walks, like, on my, you
1:37know, there's, like, greenways close to my house and stuff, and I'll go on these long walks or runs even, but, like,
1:44let's just say I'm going on a walk, and the most awkward thing on earth is passing people on a trail while
1:51they're walking and you're walking, because there's a good, like, 30 to 40 seconds where you're both kind of going at a similar pace.
1:59Yeah. But I gotta pass them. I can't just walk slower, you know?
2:03But yeah, I have a... I'm known to be a fast walker.
2:06I don't know what that means about my personality, but it's true.
2:10I walk fast. My wife, the same way. That's like, we go on, like, you know, if we go on, like, couples
2:17walks, the rare couples walks, like, she is, she's going way faster than me.
2:21I'm like, hey, can we just... That's not me.
2:24That's the opposite for us. Yeah. But my wife's also, like, a foot shorter than me, so...
2:30Yeah. You know. All right. I do want to say, though, you know, this is the time to get your draft guide, to become a member on Lateround.com.
2:38We had another rankings update this morning. Every Wednesday and Friday, we have rankings updates on both the website and in the draft guide.
2:46And then Friday, we have the, you know, the players to target, players to avoid, dark roads, and all that stuff.
2:52So, yeah, we've got that going on. Lateround.com. Sign up for the free newsletter.
2:57Also, after this stream, I will be drafting a team immediately after.
3:00And you know who else will be drafting a team with me?
3:04I'm going to guess Mr. Gadula. Mr. Brandon Gadula.
3:07Fan favorite, Brandon Gadula. Every time I get on the stream, they're like, where's Brandon?
3:12Yeah. He is a fan favorite. So, yeah, he's going to be on the stream with me, helping me choose the, you know, the analytically correct picks.
3:20Since we're talking Gadula, I think it's a good time to point out that he has been continuing to crush it with the newsletter that we do.
3:29And that's free to subscribe to. And also, I've been getting a lot of questions about this from people.
3:34I am planning on doing the bold predictions piece, as I do every year.
3:39Now, you can mark your calendars if it makes it easier, because people are asking if I'm going to do it.
3:45Every year, I get this. But I do it the week before the final or before the first week of, you know, regular content.
3:53So, like, this week, we have, you know, off-season content.
3:56Next week, we have off-season content. And then the week after is when, you know, we have Labor Day and then obviously week one starts.
4:04So, before week one, we have week one content.
4:07So, 15 transactions starts, all that kind of stuff.
4:09So, I'm bringing that up because next week, I will, for the Tuesday episode, have the Bold Predictions podcast episode.
4:16But there will be five additional predictions, which is what I do every year, that go into the newsletter.
4:22And so, you can subscribe to the newsletter right now so you don't miss that.
4:26That's going to go out on Wednesday next week.
4:29But you can subscribe right now for that newsletter.
4:32It's absolutely free. You're going to get content in season as well.
4:36It's lateround.com. Just go click newsletter. Sign up. You just give us your email address.
4:40It's very simple. And then that way, it helps us.
4:43Number one, of course, we want to have a good newsletter database and be able to talk to you guys and send you guys content.
4:51But also, it's going to help you because not only are you going to get 15 transactions in season, you're going to get the data dump in season.
5:00But also, Brandon is going to be doing stuff in season.
5:03And then, obviously, you get the David Kitchen Digest email, sort of like the wrap-up email that he does every week.
5:10So, it's a really good newsletter, I think. I'm a little bit biased, but I do think it's a good newsletter.
5:17Check it all out, lateround.com. All right. And we do want to give a shout-out to our sponsor, DraftKings.
5:22Of course, you know they have what we like to call the Dogo.
5:27To draft one, get one. Over $20 million in best ball prizes for the best ball milli contest that they have.
5:33You're almost done with it, JJ. I'm almost done with it.
5:37How many you got left? I think I've got 11.
5:40I have 11 left, too. No way. Whoa. That is actually crazy.
5:43Yeah, that's kind of crazy, yeah. So, yeah, I did.
5:47They had like a special last night, like a flash special.
5:50Sometimes they do if you look up the app.
5:53So, I did, too. So, I could get like a $20 ticket to the DFS Sunday night contest.
5:58So, you don't have to tempt me with a good time.
6:02But promo code LATEROUND there. Link is in the description as well.
6:06Draft one. Get one as far as a best ball milli ticket.
6:09The crown is yours. The crown is yours. It is just an awesome way.
6:14Either before your draft, to kind of get ready to see what's out there, or after your draft.
6:19Because we know that drafting is one of the best parts of fantasy football.
6:24So, that being said, JJ, we have a lot to talk about, including just one of the all-time moments in fantasy football lore.
6:31Let's talk about that next in today's News & Notes.
6:34Today's Fantasy News! Alright. Preseason Week 2 reaction, JJ.
6:37Anything strike you with Preseason Week 2 stuff? I mean, other than...
6:41I will... Look, we talked to... You know, I talked to Chris Harris last week for the...
6:46For perspectives. And I asked him, because he's been very, very anti-preseason to a very strong degree.
6:51And he's not afraid to share his opinions. Which, you know, I can appreciate the boldness in the way that he approaches things.
6:58He tells it how he feels. I'm much more of a gray area, you know, in the way that I sort of
7:05say things and think about things, probably. But he certainly, you know, I agree with him.
7:10I think that he was right, and he's been right about the preseason stuff.
7:15And it just not mattering that much. It's really like you're not getting normal offenses in stalls.
7:20You're not getting, you know, normal defenses. You know, what was really interesting this week...
7:25So, obviously, you know, Dajon Stribling. Which, I've officially learned that it is Dejan and not Dejan.
7:30Which I think is important to... You know, I care about that kind of stuff.
7:35So... We've got A-chan, we've got Dejan. Dajon Stribling is how you do pronounce that.
7:39But regardless, I'll have some data on preseason stuff in a second during today's data.
7:44But I thought it was really interesting where... And it could just be Kyle Shanahan not letting a rookie get into his own head.
7:51But there was a presser with Shanahan where they asked him if Stribling's preseason performance really is moving the needle.
7:58And is it like a really big... And Shanahan's basically just saying, like, no, I don't care.
8:03Like, it just doesn't... He doesn't have any... Like, he doesn't care at all about what the preseason is.
8:09He cares more about what he sees in practice and stuff.
8:12And I think that we should take that approach as well.
8:16Like, it's just not that important. And there's not a lot of, you know, correlating data.
8:21Although Brandon is sending a newsletter to show what is kind of correlated with preseason to regular season pronunciation.
8:27I just read the word pronunciation in the chat.
8:29And I just said pronunciation. Production is what I meant to say.
8:33My gosh. You guys throw me off so much in chat.
8:37But anyway, I thought that was kind of interesting to hear Shanahan say that.
8:41So I don't care about preseason stuff. I really don't.
8:44You know, it's interesting to see kind of how teams are sharing workload, I guess.
8:49Like, I think that there's some interest in the way that the Titans, for instance, have been giving Tajay Spears a lot
8:56more looks than I think most would think going into the preseason.
8:59Except for late round, of course. Because we've been on the Pollard fade.
9:04But no, I mean, like, even that might not matter at all.
9:07Like, we have no idea, you know. So, like, I think it's a lot easier in these instances to take this information
9:14because we don't have any information all summer long.
9:17And then we're like, oh, here's some nugget. Here's some information.
9:20And then you take that and you just over exaggerate that like crazy.
9:24So I would almost rather just ignore it so I don't do anything with that information.
9:29Yes. The only reason why I cared is because I'm tired of the Cam Ward slander.
9:34So when they were at that Sunday night game, you know, I'm fighting my group chat.
9:39I'm fighting all the fantasy people. Fighting me. Fighting my boss.
9:43What do you say to your boss? When he says your favorite player sucks, you know, like.
9:48Yeah. I mean, like, I do think and I've kind of taken that approach.
9:53I remember back when we were at the Super Bowl and we were we were talking like Steve Palazzolo and stuff.
9:59And, you know, you were trying to get like hyped on Cam Ward.
10:03And then at one point, I'm just like, dude, like it can certainly happen.
10:08But we've seen way more of the year one bad statistical profiles bust than the year one bad statistical profiles, you know, come through eventually.
10:15I think it's fine in like redraft to just throw the dart.
10:19I don't think it's that big of a deal.
10:22But, you know, in Dynasty, it's a lot more difficult to invest where we're at right now.
10:27Their defense. I will say it was telling the first team defense getting absolutely ransacked these past two weeks.
10:33And just like if they're going to be terrible on defense.
10:37It could be fantasy friendly. Yeah. Could be fantasy friendly.
10:40It could be. I mean, Cam Ward could be this year's Jacoby Brissett.
10:44But let's let's move on to. That's definitely one you want to hear about your your franchise quarterback.
10:49Maybe my maybe my quarterback is Jacoby Brissett. Listen, if that happens, it is what it is.
10:55A 35 percent Cam Ward. It is what it is.
10:58I want you to take yourself back, JJ, in time to Sunday night, Sunday afternoon.
11:02You get the alert. Where were you? What were you doing when you got the alert that Ashton Jeanty had to be
11:09helped off the field, could not put any weight on his leg?
11:13Where were you and how much did you cry?
11:16Well, contrary to some people's beliefs, I do spend time with my children and I was I was with my kids on
11:23Sunday and I got the alert, you know, and I tried to ignore.
11:27And then the I couldn't because all of the apps were just notifying me.
11:31And so that was in my head for sure.
11:34It's like, OK, well, I'm at 12 percent Ashton Jenty and in the Millie and I have been bullish on what he could do this year.
11:42And 95 percent plus of those times of those instances when you get I mean, look, it was a an injury on
11:49a reception prayer circle from all the players. The music stopped.
11:52Right. And in those instances, I mean, how many the only thing I can kind of compare it to is when Tyrone
11:59Tracy, his rookie year was like taken away in like an air cast or something like that.
12:05And then he was fine. He was like back in like two days back at practice.
12:10But you're not even remotely talking about the quality of player as Ashton Jenty.
12:14Like this is such a bigger deal than, you know, a random rookie that you were just hyped on that you were excited about.
12:21Right. And so, you know, I joined I was in some slows.
12:25I didn't do I didn't join any fast drafts when that ambiguous time was going on where we didn't know how long Jenty was going to be out.
12:34We kind of assumed that it was like an ACL.
12:37I just saw tweet after tweet from people saying this is how I would handle things if I were drafting tonight.
12:44I didn't send anything because I couldn't. You know, like I said, I was hanging out with the fam and it just
12:50wasn't the right time for me to like sit down and like craft a tweet for people.
12:56But regardless, like, yeah, I mean, it was it was crazy.
12:59Like I joined I was in some slows. I eventually I had my you know, my clock was I was up on
13:06like three or four drafts and some of them I was in like round four, round five.
13:11So I wasn't going to take Mike Washington in those drafts anyway.
13:15And round five like that's that like even if Jenty were out for the year, I wouldn't be drafting Mike Washington over
13:22like Bucky Irving or something like that. And then but I was in round nine in a couple of drafts.
13:28And so I did take Mike Washington in round nine later that night before we learned the news with Jenty.
13:34And then now, obviously, you know, we've seen it's like we still don't have that much clarity as to what's going on here.
13:42You know, there's there was a report by rap sheet where it's like where it's like it's not a super high ankle sprain.
13:49You know, it's like it's kind of in the middle down his leg.
13:53Yeah, like there's it reminds me of Denny Carter used to send or would send tweets out all the time.
13:59And now he's on Blue Sky. He's not even on Twitter, but he would send tweets out saying how, oh, this is
14:06the lowest ankle sprain I've ever seen. You know, like this is this is getting it's just getting lower and lower.
14:13It's fine. It's not a big deal. It's just this is just in his toe at this point.
14:18You know, like like that's the way that some of this reporting has gone with Jenty.
14:23I still you know, my reaction to it from like a fantasy perspective is that, you know, I ended up bumping him
14:30to the bottom of that sort of round two tier where like Amari and Hampton's at.
14:35And Devon Achan, Derek Henry, kind of that grouping.
14:38I think that he's going to miss some time.
14:41And I still love Jenty. I was very, very high on him this year.
14:45But don't be surprised if in the draft guide he's crossed out this week as a player to target because there's obviously
14:52a lot of risk involved and going his direction.
14:55But, you know, there's going to be some drafts where he falls to like more of the late second.
15:01And I think that's a really good spot for a team that starts with Jamar Chase or Puka Nakua, because one of
15:08the things that constantly I did a Reddit AMA yesterday.
15:11And one of the things that was constantly asked, and I understand why, but it was asked like literally eight or nine times.
15:18But it was this idea of, OK, you know, Bijan and Gibbs are off the board.
15:23Now we're looking at either Jamar Chase or Puka Nakua.
15:26But the problem is, if any of you guys have done drafts, the problem is that that running back tier drops off
15:33and you get into like Brees Hall territory, which I'm higher than the market on Brees Hall generally.
15:38You know, I talked about that on a recent mailbag episode.
15:42And I drafted him in round three in the beginning towards the beginning of round three and plenty of drafts, you know,
15:49season long managed lead drafts so far this year.
15:52But regardless of that, there is a drop off after that pretty big tier of running back.
15:57And so what you're basically doing is, oh, I'm going to get an elite wide receiver in the second round, like a Drake London, A.J.
16:05Brown, whoever. And then the third round comes around and you're like, I don't really want to reach for Devante or go
16:12with Kyron Williams or go with Brees Hall, whatever the case may be.
16:16So then you're like, oh, but oh, here's oh, Nico Collins fell to the to the, you know, early third college, Drake London, Chris Alave.
16:23I mean, you can even make the argument for Devante Smith and Zay Flowers.
16:28You know, like there's there's really good wide receivers there.
16:31So then all of a sudden you're in a position where you start three wide receivers and you have a zero RB build.
16:38And a lot of people, including myself, like I don't think it's a very comfortable position to be in because you're then risking.
16:45You know, there are at times pretty good fourth round running backs that can fall to that late fourth.
16:51But in best ball, that happens way more frequently than in a managed season long league managed season long leagues.
16:57You're going to get Travis H. And and, you know, even like a David Montgomery, who has more question marks now, you're
17:04going to get those guys more at like the three, four area and early fourth.
17:09So you could just continuously just kind of just just be right off of a running back tier over and over and over again.
17:16And you run the risk of having Kenny Gainwell as a starter for you.
17:21And you're without an anchor at running back at all.
17:24And so, you know, I do think that that's a valid point that people bring up.
17:29And so if you can pair Gainty with a Jamar Chase or Puka Nakua, that's sweet.
17:34That's awesome. But I do think that it gives more validity to the CMC, you know, 103 overall, which is why I
17:41actually because I think that I need to be more like vocal about this right in my rankings and the way that I display them.
17:49So even though like in a vacuum, I would take Puka and Jamar Chase over Chris McCaffrey, I do have Chris McCaffrey
17:55in that tier in case you want to go that direction and take that running back.
18:00Yeah, especially we talk about it now. You just never know what your own draft room is going to look like.
18:07People that have been in leagues, they kind of know the tendencies and you don't want to be on the outside looking in on a position sometimes.
18:15All right. Give me that booty. Kayshawn Booty traded to the Texans.
18:19Things we like to see, JJ. I saw some report by some like, you know, not well-known Patriots reporter about how the
18:26Texans don't even know if they're going to be using him as a starter and two wide receiver sets.
18:32I don't believe that. I think that he fits the mold of replacing Jaden Higgins and being a threat down the field,
18:39which is what he played in New England. You know, I think booty is actually a pretty good wide receiver.
18:45Like I've been saying, like I liked him a lot as a prospect.
18:49He was actually an early player, you know, even though he's a day three guy, had some off the field stuff, but
18:56he's gotten his head on straight and he's been, you know, he's been a pretty valuable and solid player overall.
19:02So I think that what we're going to see in Houston and look, I think that Jalen Knoll, I had him as
19:09a, as a late round dart in last, last week's update.
19:13I think Jalen Knoll is still kind of attractive because he's going to be a last round pick in most season long leagues.
19:20Um, but he showed off a lot of upside last year out of the slot.
19:24I think he'll play the primary slot position where Xavier Hutchinson would have been the perimeter guy for them opposite of Nico.
19:31That's going to be Keishon booty now, which makes sense because Xavier Hutchinson was really inefficient.
19:36He's not, I mean, he's a very replaceable wide receiver.
19:39Jalen Knoll still has some upside because what if, what if booty doesn't get caught up and isn't able to play on
19:46the perimeter and they're like, Hey, let's just get Noel some reps out there and see what he's got.
19:52And I thought he was a really intriguing and interesting prospect himself.
19:56So I'm still throwing that dart. Um, but I think booty is going to be out there in two wide receiver sets,
20:03which is going to be important because I think Houston's going to end up running a lot of 12 this year.
20:09They drafted Marlon Klein, who was actually kind of an intriguing prospect.
20:13According to that model, uh, Godula kind of liked him as like a really good sleeper type player in dynasty.
20:19Um, and I kind of followed suit because he did a lot of good work with the tight end position.
20:26So I do think that we're going to see a lot more 12 personnel in that offense this season.
20:32And obviously when that's the case, you get more hyper targets to, to the wide receivers that are out there.
20:38So Nico Collins gets a little bit of a bump and then Kayshawn booty, I think could end up seeing, you know,
20:45a decent enough target share in the offense. For sure.
20:48I like that. Uh, booty call. Let's get on to mega Mondray trifling tray.
20:52We have Ramond Ray just steaming up the draft boards.
20:55And if you've been, I'm not trying to pat anyone on the back right now, but if you've listened to this show,
21:02if you've listened to JJ over, you know, the off season, you, you knew this was coming.
21:07Yeah. Um, I will say this, I got a mailbag, a mailbag question for this week that I'm probably going to briefly touch on, on the mailbag episode.
21:16So I'll give you guys sort of like a, a TLDR of what that's going to be like, but you know, I
21:23got a message of like, Hey, we've seen a lot of these situations in the past where the more explosive player was
21:30not sort of like the coach's favorite. Um, from, from what we're assuming.
21:34Right. And we then end up drafting incorrectly, the more boring, you know, good and past pro type player.
21:40And some of the references that this person made were like Damian Harris or Ezekiel Elliott towards the end of his career
21:47or Zach Moss, whenever Chase Brown was there with him in Cincinnati.
21:51The difference between this situation and those situations is that Ramondre Stevenson is good.
21:55Like forget any priors you have. Like last year I was in on Travion Henderson and I was not in on Ramondre Stevenson.
22:02And it was a mistake in the end. It didn't end up being as big of a mistake as it could have
22:09been because we got those really massive spiked weeks from Travion.
22:12And, you know, it wasn't like the biggest deal in the world necessarily, but of course, I mean, Ramondre really came on
22:19during the second half of last year. I keep saying this like front half of the year.
22:25There were definitely some question marks. He was not nearly as good as people, uh, as his end of season numbers showed,
22:31but Ramondre Stevenson last year was number one in the NFL and rushing yards over expected per rush.
22:37Uh, and then he was number one in catch rate over expected at running back among qualified running backs.
22:43He was good. Like we're not talking about end of career Ezekiel Elliott here.
22:47We're talking about Ramondre Stevenson who is coming off a season where his team went to the Super Bowl and they rode
22:54him as their clear number one back throughout the playoffs.
22:57And there's nothing going on in camp to tell us that that's going to change.
23:02If anything, there's articles being written about him being a standout in camp.
23:06So I, you know, this is why I think it's really important.
23:10Like I was doing that apex draft at the beginning of August, remember?
23:14And, um, I was between Ramondre and Travion. And at the time, Travion was like a round higher in ADP.
23:20And I just straight up took Ramondre when, when you're on the clock as a fantasy analyst, you know, it's very easy
23:27to think in hypotheticals often when you're doing rankings, when you're giving advice, it's not your team.
23:32You're not, you're not making those choices for that person.
23:35You're just giving general advice and I try my best to put myself in the person's shoes, but sometimes you got to put yourself in your own shoes.
23:44And I did that in that draft. And I was like, I was like, oh my gosh, I like Ramondre Stevenson more than I like Travion Henderson.
23:53And that's when it really, you know, I was always higher than the market on Ramondre, but that's when it really flipped for me.
24:00And, you know, now the market's been doing that more and more as well.
24:04I'm not saying that I'm the reason that that's happening at all.
24:08There's been a lot of favorable reports and stuff like that, but I do feel good about, you know, the stance with Ramondre versus Travion this offseason.
24:17That might be our new shirt that we have with the quote.
24:20Sometimes you have to put yourself in your own shoes.
24:24Yes. Wise words from Sir JJ. All right. Let's get on to some other interesting running back rooms in Carolina.
24:30We have Jonathan Brooks, you know, Chuba Hubbard, Jonathan Brooks.
24:33Yeah, it's something I combined them. Did you write?
24:36Did you used to write for a newspaper? Yeah.
24:39Like, think of something. Think of something. Hubba Brooks, you know, it's what it's what the kids do, you know, when you combine two people.
24:46So that's what we're doing here. But anyways, you've got Jonathan Brooks like right now.
24:51And I know redraft is different, but on DraftKings and Best Ball, Jonathan Brooks is going around pick 70.
24:57Chuba Hubbard going pick 115. Yeah, it's that really flipped.
25:00That Delta, that Delta is pretty wild to me.
25:03But that's what you that's what you get in Best Ball, right?
25:07And season long, it's a lot closer. You're still going to even see Hubbard drafted ahead of Jonathan Brooks in some season long drafts.
25:14I like Brooks straight up more. You know, I didn't at the start of the offseason in May.
25:20But as the season went, as the offseason went on, I think I made the flip in like mid to early July
25:27or something like that to go more Brooks as we saw that he was healthy.
25:31I think there's more, you know, upside with him, more pass catching upside with him.
25:36He had a really good and complete collegiate profile and a lot of good advance marks.
25:41So I'm very excited for Jonathan Brooks. With that being said, like if you're in a draft and Chuba Hubbard is sitting
25:48in round 10, which happens in Best Ball pretty frequently.
25:51I mean, basically every draft now in Best Ball.
25:54You should draft Chuba Hubbard, I think, in that in that range.
25:57So, you know, I'm not the biggest Chuba Hubbard guy.
26:01I think he's like an above average back, but definitely doesn't have that like special ability to like break seasons.
26:07He has not been an efficient pass catcher throughout his career.
26:10And obviously he already lost his job last year.
26:13Like we've seen this coaching staff, you know, give the work to another running back who was outperforming him at that time.
26:20But and then the injury obviously is not helping me.
26:23This is one of those things, though, where like there's oftentimes an injury pushes a player's ADP down and it takes a
26:30while for that player to get back. We're seeing that with Sam Laporta a little bit right now, too, where, you know, like he had that.
26:38I think it was a hip, right? But he went back to practice yesterday.
26:42And and, you know, he was dropping by like two rounds in drafts when realistically he probably shouldn't have because obviously he's he's OK right now.
26:51So there's a lot of reactive, a lot of like harsh reactions going on to injuries.
26:56I would argue a lot of times like we shouldn't be doing that.
27:00Obviously, it can bite you if you if you aren't doing it enough for in some cases.
27:05But yeah, I think that that Chuba is actually kind of intriguing in some drafts at this point.
27:11It's definitely not a fade for me like it was last year.
27:14Yeah, because you talk about at cost. Chuba says that they're just being extra cautious with him because of his lingering hamstring injury last year.
27:22So that was the reason. But it sounds like he might even just be the starter to start out there in Carolina.
27:29All right. Montmarks in Houston. That's David Montgomery and Woody Marks.
27:32Oh, is it? I couldn't. You needed you needed any sort of insight on that.
27:37But you have both of these guys now saying it's it'll be more of a committee than people might have initially thought.
27:44Or is that the case? You think? Look, I think that.
27:47This is this is like a classic example of the fragility of the running back dead zone area.
27:53Traditionally, how we have how we've talked about running back dead zone players.
27:57I've gotten to the point over the last couple of years where I don't write about the dead zone anymore because I
28:04think that it it simply it just makes it way too.
28:07It simplifies it way too much. Really what the running back dead zone is, is that traditionally in drafts?
28:13What we usually see is running backs being boosted a little bit in ADP for not their talent, but for their projected volume.
28:20And when you're assigning volume to a player who's not talented enough, there is fragility to that to where that player could
28:27lose that volume because he's not talented enough. And so I do think that David Montgomery is sort of in that bucket
28:34where we kind of know what he is. I think that he's he can handle a big workload.
28:40Will he get that big workload? I don't think it's nearly as locked in as a lot of the other running backs out there.
28:47With that being said, like I've been ranking him at market like I'm not high or low on on David Montgomery.
28:54I haven't been a giant here with a lot of other, you know, running backs in that sort of like dead zone II type area.
29:02But that's the fear. And I think that like no one knows, in my opinion, like we don't know for sure how
29:09this backfield is going to be split. But I think that this is one of those things where like you have to
29:15understand that the risk profile here is not simply.
29:18Like, oh, David Montgomery might not be as efficient as we think behind that offensive line.
29:23Like that's not the risk profile of David Montgomery.
29:26The risk profile is they have another running back in that backfield that could easily take some looks from Montgomery.
29:32And that's a really big deal because a guy like Montgomery is going to just need as many looks as he possibly
29:39can get because he's probably not going to be a 12, 13 percent target share player.
29:44Right. So this this to me is why like every team that you draft, there's you have to understand like the the
29:51general archetype that you're working with in terms of the player, but also that that floor ceiling combination and the risk profile involved.
29:58Right. Like Basial Tutin is going to go in the same range as David Montgomery.
30:03There are some teams like the teams that we talked about earlier that went with three wide receivers to start.
30:09You might be more inclined to get a David Montgomery type in round four and around five than going after Basial Tutin
30:16because Basial Tutin has a lower floor. The Dave Montgomery just based on ambiguity based on us not knowing.
30:22Now, I like to play for upside. I'll rank them in a similar tier and I might even have Montgomery above Tutin
30:29in some rankings because I know more people would kind of rather go for the safer play and that in the first four or five rounds.
30:37But to me, like I still think Basial Tutin has a higher upside, has more upside than David Montgomery, especially given these reports.
30:44So it's kind of the way that I view these things.
30:48And it's just another reason why that area of drafts and those types of running backs, they should be, you know, taken
30:54with a grain of salt and you should approach them with caution because there's some fragility to it.
31:00How do you turn 16 games, injury reports, team notes, betting lines and matchup trends into one clear weekend preview?
31:06Chat GPT work can help give it the goal plus real inputs like notes, files, data and project plans.
31:12It can help turn them into an analysis tracker, deck outline or workflow.
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31:21Put Chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects.
31:25Get started at chat GPT dot com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans.
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32:12Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TrimphiaRadio.com. Okay, here in Tennessee, RIP Dolly, we say bless your heart.
32:18And it's like, it's like, man, bless your heart.
32:21You know, something's going wrong. Bless your heart. And that's how I feel about Cleveland right now.
32:26Deshaun Watson named the starter there. I'm not sure what they should do.
32:31All I know is just, my heart goes out to Cleveland fans.
32:34They shouldn't be playing Deshaun Watson. He shouldn't be on the team.
32:38And you can say that strictly from a play perspective.
32:41But also, like, at some point, you got to look at your fan base as an owner of a company, whatever the case may be.
32:49It's like if we're, it's like if we produced a draft guide that just, like, was so unusable every single year that we've done it.
32:57And we just ignored the feedback from people, you know?
33:00And we're just like, no. What we're doing is fine.
33:03Don't worry about it. Like, you're tarnishing your own brand and company by throwing this guy out on the field.
33:09And maybe you believe that he's the best answer.
33:12I question that because he hasn't shown us that he can be that answer.
33:16But he is starting. I don't think from a fantasy perspective it really matters either way because I don't think Shador Sanders has that much upside anyway.
33:25So, to me, you know, I'm drafting Casey Concepcion.
33:28He's basically the only guy that I've been drafting from, like, consistently from this Browns offense this year.
33:33You know, I've been worried about Harold Fannin. And people don't know this, but Harold Fannin was originally, right before we published
33:40the guide, I took him off the avoids list this year back in early July.
33:45And I've been a little bit, like, hesitant with Fannin.
33:48I'm probably not going to make him as an avoid because I just love the profile and I love the player.
33:55But, like, Fannin has a lot that's working against him this year that just is not being talked about nearly enough.
34:01Where you have this added competition and he's good and you can earn targets by being good.
34:06But he was also getting some really easy layup stuff last year when Shador Sanders was starting because of a lack of
34:13competition and because of the way that Shador kind of was running that offense.
34:18It's a brand new offensive system. Like, we don't know for sure if some of that easy stuff is going to be
34:24there for Fannin where he's going to get a 30% target share.
34:28You know, so I even think that he's a very risky play.
34:32But Concepcion, when you can get him in the double-digit rounds, I'm going after that because I want to hyper-target, you know,
34:39at that kind of cost, you know, players who I think are really good.
34:43But, okay, moving on to Atlanta, things are so bad with Tua.
34:47There are rumors of Phoenix starting, you know, continues to grow with this Atlanta offense.
34:52Where are you at as far as this Falcons offense with either of these quarterbacks?
34:56So I was looking at the splits with and without Michael Penix last year for Drake London in particular, but the whole offense.
35:04So when Michael Penix was playing, Drake London, 31% targets per outrun rate, 2.75 yards per outrun rate, 0.6 fantasy points per
35:10outrun, which is all very, very good numbers. Like, really, really good.
35:14And so then you look at Kyle Pitts, 18% targets per outrun, 1.3 yards per outrun, not good at all.
35:20It's just not strong. And then you look at the opposite of that.
35:24Obviously, Drake London was banged up when Michael Penix was not on the field.
35:29But Drake London in 103 routes without Michael Penix, 21% targets per outrun rate and a 1.2 yards per outrun rate.
35:35So, like, I think that Penix playing is actually, you know, I didn't dig into this nearly as much as I should have like a month ago.
35:44But I think that Penix starting is probably not a bad thing at all, given the state, what appears to be the
35:51state of Tuatunga Bailoa, which is that he is absolute dust.
35:54That he is horrible, right? So I think it's a good thing if Michael Penix starts.
35:59There seems to be more upside with the offense and the guys we care about in fantasy.
36:04Okay, get Downs with the, not the sickness, but the calf.
36:08Unfortunately, Josh Downs dealing with a calf injury. We don't know how serious it is.
36:13All I know is that this Colts offense, and we can lump the gate-gate blurb in there as well if you're following along, JJ.
36:20But we've got Downs with a calf injury. Alec Pierce with this ankle.
36:24We're watching to see how he walks. Tyler Warren has a groin injury.
36:28Keenan Allen is maybe the healthiest guy. He's the oldest guy out there.
36:32He hasn't been playing at all. Right. He hasn't had the opportunity to get hurt.
36:37So Colts pass catchers, Downs bad. Yeah, it's kind of tough.
36:40I'm trying to, you know, I was relatively okay with Josh Downs after the Keenan Allen move.
36:46But the more that I've sat with it, the more I'm like kind of moving Downs down a little bit in my rankings.
36:53And I love Josh Downs. I think there's so much potential with his profile.
36:57He's actually been pretty good on the perimeter at getting targets when he plays out there.
37:02And so there is some upside there and some intrigue there.
37:06With that being said, it's hard to deny. Like Keenan Allen just been a quarterback friend when it comes to getting targets.
37:12You know, led the both the last two teams he's played for in targets per route run.
37:18Last year, just he just led the team in target share.
37:21So, yeah. I mean, I think Keenan Allen is not someone that I think is going to give you tons and tons of upside.
37:29But in deeper leagues at the end of drafts, you know, in best ball, I do think that he can give you some usable weeks.
37:36And then the Alec Pierce stuff. Again, no one knows.
37:40Like no one knows what's going on with Alec Pierce.
37:43Now you watch him walk. I've seen rumors slash reports from like other players being interviewed saying that like he just kind of walks with a limp naturally.
37:51Like that's just kind of like he's got a little swag to him.
37:56I didn't know. Did you notice? Like we saw him at Radio Row.
38:00He was going to interview with this show. Yeah.
38:02But they got there late, so we weren't able to do it.
38:06But I didn't notice any, you know, limp. I just noticed his traps.
38:10Yeah. Dude was huge. Dude is huge. Yeah. A lot bigger than people realize.
38:15But he was also, you know, a gym rat, you know, athletic freak at the combine and stuff.
38:20But, yeah, I don't know what's going on with Alec Pierce.
38:24I'm fine. Double digit rounds that people are just kind of fading him to just throw the dart.
38:29But aside from that, I'm kind of staying away.
38:32Okay. Mike Evans is old. He has now a groin injury.
38:35So if you're keeping track, he's had a groin injury, two separate quad injuries, an ankle injury.
38:41And I think I'm missing a foot injury. I'm not sure if that is with the ankle injury.
38:46But some are saying this might be his fifth injury of the preseason.
38:50Yeah. I mean, it's scary for sure. But I also think that, like, we're in a place right now where teams are
38:57playing it so, so safe with these guys. And we don't know what's a serious injury and what's not.
39:03Like, even the amount of time that these guys are sidelined, we don't know how serious the injury was.
39:09Or if they're just like, no, you're good. You got the install.
39:13You know exactly what the offense is doing. And you're good at playing the game.
39:18So, like, we don't need to rush you back.
39:20So it could be going, you know, happening for Mike Evans.
39:24But yeah, it's not good news that he can't seemingly stay on the field.
39:28Okay, next one. Is JCM, Corey Krosky, going to be fantasy relevant this year?
39:33That's a little bit of a joke compared to last year when someone said if he's fantasy relevant, they will steal the declaration.
39:40It wasn't just someone. It was redacted in the fantasy, in the late round discord.
39:44Yeah. He said he would steal the declaration of independence if JCM ended up being fantasy relevant.
39:50Yeah, he's going to be fantasy relevant. I said this a couple weeks ago.
39:54I mean, I made the switch to ranking him above Rashad White.
39:58Rashad White seemingly has a groin injury after doing the ALS ice bucket challenge.
40:02It looked like he slipped after doing that, which is like, that's the story of this preseason, right?
40:08Like, you're excited. You know, you're doing something good, as he was.
40:12And then, you know, you get hurt. But, you know, I still have my hesitation to think that he's going to be
40:19like, you know, an 8% to 12% target share player.
40:22I don't think that's probably going to happen. But I think it's a backfield that I want to invest in.
40:28So I've been throwing darts at both JCM and Rashad White.
40:31Yeah. They say he's got like an undisclosed injury, a soft, like a lower body injury.
40:36But now they say that he could be back.
40:39They're just taking it really easy. Like I just said.
40:42Yeah. What the way the teams are treating this stuff.
40:45Yeah. Okay. Trey Benson waived. And I'll group this in with it as well.
40:50So Kareem Hunt visiting the Lions. We are in this season now where you're going to have maybe some veterans cut visiting other places.
40:57And it's just kind of it is what it is.
41:00Yeah. I mean, I never was like super high on Trey Benson aside from the only time I was into Trey Benson
41:07was last year when there are all the injuries.
41:10And I'm like, yeah, stash him on your bench.
41:13And then he didn't come back. Yeah. And then Kareem Hunt.
41:16I mean, is he I don't know if he's better or worse than Isaiah Pacheco.
41:21Like whoever is that like I haven't drafted any Isaiah Pacheco this offseason.
41:25Maybe it comes back to haunt me and burn me in basketball.
41:29But I just you know, again, it goes back to the fragility of like not super talented players.
41:34I think Pacheco is just kind of cooked versus where he's been at just has dealt with injuries throughout his short career so far.
41:42And so, yeah, I mean, like like I'm not going to be surprised if there's a lot of that volatility with that RB2 spot for the Lions.
41:50And if Kareem Hunt's there, he could get some run, you know, in that in that backfield.
41:56We'll see what happens, though. OK, then last Packers said they were preparing for the possibility of Jacobs being.
42:02Not being there with either injury or suspension or whatever.
42:05I've seen different takes on X about this. People are saying it's actually good, probably like good for Jacobs the way that it was said.
42:12Some are saying it's bad. I don't think it's good.
42:16Usually to me, when teams call that out, there's at least sometimes a hint at that suspension coming.
42:21And it kind of aligns with when Adam Schefter came out last week or two weeks ago saying that Puka Nakua and
42:28Josh Jacobs were two players who could still be suspended.
42:31And in the way that Schefter framed it, it sounded like Nakua would miss week one, right?
42:36Like that was going to be a one week kind of suspension.
42:40He wouldn't be able to play their opener. And then the Josh Jacobs thing is a bigger deal than the Puka thing
42:47in terms of just like what the allegations are and what happens.
42:51So I don't know. I'm taking it as, you know, keep me.
42:55Marshawn Lloyd's a late round dart throw. He's been a late round dart throw in the draft guide, and I would continue
43:01to draft him in the later rounds. All right, let's get on to today's data.
43:06Today's data. Yeah, it's a fun one. Yeah. So this is looking at rookie wide receiver preseason numbers over the last 10 years.
43:13So this is first year wide receivers, 15 or more routes runs.
43:17This is mega small sample guys, like super, super small sample.
43:21But I'm looking at targets per outrun and yards per outrun.
43:24And design shriveling has by far the best targets per outrun rate in this data set.
43:29But he's had a 59% targets per outrun rate in the preseason this year.
43:33And if you look at the top guys, Tank Dell right behind him, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Amin Ross, St.
43:40Brown, all his rookies. And then you start to get into more questionable players, but there's still some hits in there.
43:46Garrett Wilson's in there. Quentin Johnston kind of, I guess.
43:49Romeo Dobbs, obviously. Torrey Horton looked like he was, you know, trending in the right direction.
43:54So it's kind of interesting. And obviously, you know, design Dajon Stribling had, did I say Dajon the last time?
44:00You corrected yourself. So you're good. His yards per outrun is 4.95.
44:04But the other thing is we have Trevor Pena for the Jags, who I believe was a Penn Stater.
44:10He did not go to the combine, so he doesn't have a, and he wasn't drafted, so he doesn't have a profile in the prospect guide.
44:18He's been kind of crushing it for the Jags.
44:21He's got a 6.84 yards per outrun rate so far in the preseason, a 42% targets per outrun rate.
44:27So again, if there's any stickiness to this kind of data, which I don't think there is that much stickiness.
44:33You'd rather the player be good than bad, of course, but I don't think there's going to be a significant amount of stickiness here.
44:41He's another one. Pena's another one that is kind of interesting to just watch out for from a dynasty perspective.
44:47It's obviously a crowded room and such, though. He might not even make the team, but we'll see.
44:53He's been crushing in the preseason. But yeah, there's just some more Dajon Stribling steam for you folks.
44:58I still think that you can be drafting him in the top 45-ish wide receivers, which is going to place him in the top 10 rounds of drafts.
45:07Okay, so that's rookie wide receiver preseason starts right there.
45:10No, I said stars. Like, they're stars. Okay, stars.
45:13That's why I didn't know if it was stars or starts.
45:16No, no, no. They're stars. They're guys who are crushing it in the preseason.
45:21Now I understand. Yeah. Not superstars, but stars. I saw you messing with that the entire time I was talking.
45:27I know because I'm like, I know how you are with, like, you don't want a typo out there.
45:33It's okay. Yeah. Someone said in chat, someone says thoughts on Diggs versus Stribling.
45:37I'm taking Stefan Diggs. I love Stefan Diggs this year.
45:40I think he's just way undervalued. How do you turn 16 games, injury reports, team notes, betting lines, and matchup trends into one clear weekend preview?
45:48Chat GPT work can help. Give it the goal, plus real inputs like notes, files, data, and project plans.
45:54It can help turn them into an analysis tracker, deck outline, or workflow you can keep shaping.
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46:51Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today.
46:54Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com. Let's get on to the make or break areas of your draft.
47:00The late round main event! Yeah, so we did this last year, and I think it's a good exercise to kind of
47:07go through and think about, but I came up with four make or break areas of fantasy drafts this year.
47:13And what I mean by make or break is they're just big sort of like inflection points in the players that you're
47:20choosing and the roster construction that you might end up going with based on those choices.
47:25And so the first one that I think is probably the most obvious is sort of the one-two turn at running back.
47:32So like the guys that are going late round one into the middle of round two this year.
47:37I copied and pasted. This is from Fantasy Pros ADP.
47:41And then I highlighted the running backs that I'm sort of talking about here, which is Ashton Gentry, who's going to fall
47:47in ADP, Saquon Barkley, Devon Achan, Chase Brown, Amarine Hampton, Kenneth Walker, and Derek Henry.
47:52Those are the guys. And then I highlighted two players that I think are sort of like the targets in this range based on ADP.
48:00So obviously Devon Achan is going ahead of Chase Brown.
48:03I'm drafting Chase Brown ahead of Devon Achan, Kenneth Walker going behind Amarine Hampton.
48:07I'm drafting Kenneth Walker over both Amarine Hampton and Devon Achan.
48:11Obviously he's a little bit banged up, but it sounds like it's not that big of a deal, this foot injury.
48:17So like this to me is going to be a really important part of drafts this year.
48:23I think that if you're at the end of round one, you should double tap running back usually in most leagues because
48:30then in round three and four, you can get two really good wide receivers still and feel good about your wide receiver room.
48:37But I did want to highlight Chase Brown and Walker as two guys that I like.
48:42I mean, Chase Brown, I've talked about on the show, you know, he was averaging over 20.
48:47He was averaging like 21 PPR points per game with Joe Burrow last year, basically top five running back in fantasy.
48:54And he was getting, you know, he's the one running back out of this group.
48:58Like just go through these names. Ashton Gentry, a brand new system.
49:02Saquon Barkley, a brand new offensive system. Devon Achan, everything changed.
49:05Amarine Hampton, brand new offensive system and new competition.
49:08Kenneth Walker, he's on a new team. Derek Henry, even a brand new offensive system, right?
49:13Chase Brown has the most stability out of all of these guys.
49:17He's the easiest to project, in my opinion, of all of these players.
49:21So I'm very into Chase Brown for both the stability and the upside case.
49:25And then Kenneth Walker, you know, you're pairing a high upside runner who has had lower success rates in the past, but
49:32the lower success rate stuff in Kansas City should change because we saw last year that team was top 10 in success
49:39rate despite having Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco. And then on top of that, the team faced the fewest number of players
49:46in the box, fewest stack boxes in the league.
49:49And so Walker's going to see easier fronts because these defenses have to, you know, be honest because they're facing Patrick Mahomes,
49:56who obviously has been not as good of a deep ball thrower over the last couple of years, but it is still Patrick Mahomes.
50:03And so the defensive fronts that Kenneth Walker is going to face are going to be, I mean, he's going to be awesome on the ground.
50:11I have no doubt about that. The biggest question is going to be what he looks like as a receiver.
50:18If you look at Andy Reid's history, you know, before we've had this sort of like hodgepodge of just like random running
50:24backs back there, he's had some true bell cow backs throughout his history.
50:29And so I'm not going to be surprised that they use Walker a good bit through the air.
50:34He hasn't seen the crazy volume spikes aside from the one year with Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator, but he's been very
50:41good per route run throughout his career aside from his rookie season.
50:45So I think Walker can be a really good asset as a receiver for them too, which is why I'm pretty high on him.
50:52Okay. Let's move on to the second area of the make or break draft.
50:57And this is the cover boy, Brock Bowers. You say to Brock Bowers or to not Brock Bowers.
51:02Yeah, look, there's an opportunity cost in getting Brock Bowers in your drafts.
51:06It's going to be a lot easier, in my opinion, to draft him in shallower leagues in leagues where, you know, maybe
51:13you don't have like super deep starting lineups or so, you know, obviously if you're starting three running backs and three wide
51:20receivers and one tight end versus two running backs and two wide receivers and one tight end.
51:25In the latter format, tight ends matter more because they're a larger chunk of your starting lineup.
51:31Right. And so in those kinds of formats, I'll be more willing to go after Brock Bowers in round two where he's
51:38being drafted is expected points per game based on historical ADP is around 14.8 points per game.
51:43He scored 15.5 and 14.7 in his two seasons in the league.
51:47So I have no issue with him at least meeting expectation.
51:50The problem is with tight end. You need them to give you like a special season in order to really be worthwhile
51:57because the position just doesn't matter nearly as much.
52:00Like we're just looking at how tight ends have performed against other tight ends.
52:04We're looking at expected points per game. We're not talking about how valuable that actual player is.
52:09Right. So I do think you can meet expectation.
52:12The problem is how valuable is that going to be for your fantasy roster?
52:17Usually it's around like, you know, where he goes, you're going to want like a 17 point per game type season from
52:23Brock Bowers to, to really like give you some decent value.
52:27I think he can get there in this offense with Clint Kubiak.
52:31You know, he's, he's an elite player. It's good.
52:33They're going to run a lot of 12. There's going to be a lot of focus going towards Brock Bowers.
52:40And so I'm fine with taking them in some leagues.
52:43There's some leagues where I'm not going to take them.
52:46You know, if it's a 14 teamer where I'm starting three wide receivers, I'm not going to be as inclined to take
52:53Brock Bowers because I don't want to have to play catch up at those other more important positions, but I'm high on Bowers.
53:00I think you can draft him. But I do think that's a big, big make or break decision because it impacts the
53:07rest of your lineup so much, your roster construction so much after you do take Bowers there.
53:12Yeah. You're mentioning, you know, the two receiver and shallower leagues.
53:16And we also get some of these questions about 10 team leagues.
53:19And we talk about it's, it's a lot easier in 10 team leagues to draft these onesie positions like a Brock Bowers.
53:26Yeah. Based on where you are. Okay. Round three to five wide receivers.
53:30Yeah. There's a lot of them. And I actually extended this past round five with the ADP data that fantasy pros are
53:37showing because Parker Washington is still, I will just call this like wide receiver two up to wide receiver.
53:4330 is what this really looks like. It's Devante Smith.
53:46I'm just going to read them really quick. Devante Smith, Zay Flowers, T Higgins, Tedrow, McMillan, Emeka Buka, Ladd McConkie, Garrett Wilson,
53:53Jalen Waddle, DJ Moore, Luther Burden, Terry McLaurin, Devante Adams, Jamison Williams, Mike Evans, Roma Dunze, Christian Watson, and Parker Washington.
54:00So those wide receivers, I love them. It's so hard to have true, honest faith.
54:04Like I have a couple of guys that are on this list that I have as avoids in the draft guide, but
54:11there are avoids with a confidence level of one.
54:14Like literally it's like, we have a confidence level in the, in the guide.
54:18Like I'm not hard fading any of these guys.
54:21It's just that I'm trying to give some content to you guys and to, you know, let you understand why the rankings
54:28have those guys maybe slightly lower than what ADP does.
54:31But when I'm looking at this list, I can make a case for literally all of these players.
54:37And I think that if you're going RBRB, you're in a really good spot to take three of these guys in a lot of cases.
54:45Um, you know, if you go, uh, if you're in an auction, I love the idea of getting two running backs from that tier.
54:52We just talked about maybe getting chase Brown and Kenneth Walker, and then getting four of these guys potentially in this tier,
54:59as opposed to spending up and getting like Drake London, Nico Collins and stuff.
55:03Well, I like those guys. I'm just saying that I think the upside case for some, some of the guys in this
55:10range is very similar and you can get them for a lot cheaper in an auction draft.
55:15So I think that this range is just going to be make or break because there's going to be a lot of
55:22players in my opinion that emerge from this and give us some, uh, really good upside in fantasy this year.
55:29I was going to mention that as far as, uh, this is almost like a, uh, strategy guide for auctions as well.
55:35Just a little bit what you're, it could be a strategy.
55:39I would say like I had this strategy going into the Kings classic.
55:43No. And then, you know, things got kind of turned on.
55:46Well, the problem is if you get other teams that are doing the same thing, it makes it a lot more difficult.
55:53And that's what happened in my Kings classic draft too, is that I was just like, Oh, okay.
55:59I'm not going to get Terry McLaurin. I'll just wait for the next guy from this tier and I'll get them a little bit cheaper or whatever.
56:07But then every guy, it's just kept going and going and going.
56:11So I had to spend up a little bit to get like a T Higgins and stuff.
56:16I never find when you're spinning up to get a T Higgins.
56:20That's what I always say. Yeah. Okay. Uh, the start of the QB two range that next make or break area of your draft.
56:28Yeah. This is the last one. Um, it's, it's the fact that like once you're past, like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, in
56:34my opinion, I can make an argument for all of these guys that are listed here.
56:39So these guys being Matthew Stafford, Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, and Jordan Love.
56:46And you know what? But I'll highlight one guy in here that I think is still pretty underrated and that's Brock Purdy.
56:53Uh, if, if Brock Purdy is going QB 15, I'd be drafting him in, in a lot of my drafts.
56:59And I have drafted Purdy. Uh, he's, you know, he gives you a lot more juice with his legs than people realize.
57:06And he's been consistently like a top eight fantasy asset.
57:09So, uh, Purdy is probably the best value of that group.
57:12I don't mind Bo Nix. Uh, I'm a little bit worried about my homes because last year he set a career high
57:19and rushing points per game over five, uh, which was like, he was like 1.8 points per game higher than what he's typically been.
57:27And obviously he's coming off the ACL. They get Kenneth Walker.
57:30There's a lot of fear with Patrick Mahomes. In my opinion, Stafford has regression coming, uh, Jared Goff.
57:36I think like to me, there's not a massive, massive difference between Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford.
57:41Whereas in your drafts, especially home leagues where people look at what Stafford did last year and they just simply apply it to this year.
57:49Stafford is going to be less than, you know, a quarter of a point per game with his legs, you know?
57:56And so you literally need all of that stuff that he did last year, uh, with his arm.
58:01If he would have been like, if you regress that down by like 10 touchdowns, then all of a sudden he's starting
58:08to approach low end QB one territory. And that's still while leading the NFL in touchdown passes, just, he's not giving you anything from a rushing perspective.
58:16So, uh, there's some fear with Stafford. Uh, you know, Jared Goff, I think is a, is sort of an arbitrage there.
58:23Uh, Kyler Murray has the rushing upside. Obviously Baker Mayfield, I think is prime for a bounce back.
58:29The dude looks like he's in the best shape of his life, by the way.
58:34Yeah, he looks good. Baker Baker's looking good. Uh, and then Jordan love, I mean, it's an offense in an ecosystem that's been really strong historically.
58:42And he's a, he's a, you know, an EPA superstar.
58:45Jordan love is. So this QB two range, I think is going to be a make or break spot.
58:51If you go late round QB, because there are a lot of guys to choose from a lot of guys that are interchangeable in rank.
58:59A lot of guys that I'm not going to have super strong conviction on.
59:03Um, but I do think that there's a couple of them that could emerge from this, from this group.
59:09And obviously this doesn't include some of the late, late guys that are like, like Tyler Shuck or Malik Willis.
59:15Um, but I do think that there are some good options in this range.
59:20Yeah. I know with, with best ball, uh, I'm in complete agreement with you on, on Brock Purdy.
59:25I don't feel like I have enough. Bo Nix that like, that scares me.
59:30I've got plenty of Baker Mayfield. I know you do too.
59:33The guy that I can't stop drafting is Jordan love because he's going after all these guys.
59:38He's available. And I also just think about all of his past catchers, that offense, they're all being drafted in the top
59:45100 for you to count Matthew golden being at the, at the top of that list.
59:50But with Watson and Reed and craft and golden and Jacobs, I mean, this offense should be a good office.
59:56It should be a good offense. And there's, there's also some, um, chance that they're a little bit more pass heavy than, than what's being projected.
60:04Not just because of like how things ebb and flow, but also because Josh Jacobs and the stuff that we talked about already with that backfield.
60:13Right. All right. As a reminder, right after the show, you will be redirected.
60:17Brennan Godula and I will be drafting a best ball draft Kings, best ball, uh, Millie draft on, uh, the late round YouTube stream.
60:24And if you're listening on demand, Hey, go ahead and subscribe to the YouTube channel.
60:29And with that being said, JJ, let's wrap this up.
60:32All right. Like I said, subscribe, like comment, leave your comments.
60:36Hey, this is interactive show. We appreciate all the comments in the chat, even the ones that were getting JJ, um, you
60:43know, distracted while he was trying to make some, some points, but we appreciate that.
60:47We also appreciate the feedback that you give us after the show and then go to late round.com, sign up for the newsletter.
60:54Like JJ mentioned earlier, we have, um, you know, just some, some good newsletters, but also just some staples coming out.
61:01Staples of late round coming out. And then the season, I mean, we're only two weeks away from the season starting.
61:08Yeah. And then we'll be into week one, JJ.
61:10I'm ready for, uh, for things to start because it's a routine, you know, it's a lot of work, but it's a
61:17lot and it's a grind as you get towards the end of the season.
61:22But you know, August, you know, just to, to peel things back a little bit, August from my perspective is just wild
61:28because no day is the same as another day, but I still have consistent work that I got to get done for
61:35like the draft guide and some of the episodes and stuff going on so many shows.
61:40I don't do other appearances in season. Cause it's just impossible to.
61:44Um, so it's going to be nice to kind of just sit back, grind things out, live in my cave.
61:50You know, you don't hear the outside noise as much as the season's going on.
61:55Cause you're so focused on doing your analysis and, uh, you know, focusing on that.
62:00And I'm also excited to do, uh, the data dump stuff this year because we have some, some additional data that we're
62:07going to be able to be working with. Um, and so I think everyone's going to, going to see a little bit
62:13of a different in a good way, uh, data dump, uh, and just analysis each week.
62:18Yeah. And you will be able to, uh, members on late run.com will be able to, uh, play with some of that data as well.
62:26See it, download it, that sort of stuff. Uh, so yeah, it's kind of like the last week of school or last
62:33week of summer vacation before school, you're kind of frozen.
62:36Like you don't feel like you can do anything.
62:39You're getting ready for a school to start. It's like, it's not really vacation.
62:43You're, you're just wanting that first day to get there.
62:47So that's kind of how I feel about the season.
62:50Like once we have the drafts. I'm, I'm, I'm ready for the season to start already.
62:55So that's where I'm at. Um, also shout out to the draft Kings promo code late round.
63:00Again, the draft one, get one. Uh, we appreciate draft Kings and, um, you know, it is what it is.
63:06JJ, I'm trying to give a shout to our sponsors and you're pulling up quotes on.
63:11Um, I know I said year in, what'd I say?
63:14Year in and now your end. Yeah. Year end analysis.
63:17Yeah. And it sounded like urine analysis. I promise you we're not doing any urine analysis at late round fantasy football.
63:24I hope not. Yeah. All right. Uh, that being said, final thoughts, JJ.
63:28No, man. Uh, good luck to everyone with their drafts.
63:31Uh, we're going to have a mailbag episode later this week.
63:35Uh, and make sure you check out the live stream still.
63:38Okay. We appreciate you all. And, uh, we can, we just can't wait to get started.
63:43Join us in the discord. If you want to become a member, it's a fun time.
63:48And with that being said, we'll see you next time here on the late round fantasy football show sponsored by draft games.
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