1109: Mailbag - Ashton Jeanty's Outlook, Slot Targets, and More
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19 min
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Jul 10, 2026
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Fri, July 10, 2026
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Episode Transcript
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0:38Welcome to Alaska Airlines. This is the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:43What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen in this episode 1109 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:49Thanks for tuning in. The Late-Round Draft Guide is officially done.
0:52It's out there. If you pre-ordered, you should have it in your email inbox.
0:57If you haven't, you can still order right now to get some game theory breakdowns, ways to spot breakouts and busts, rankings and tiers, and so much more.
1:06Those rankings and tiers and my players to target, my players to avoid, the Late-Round Darts list, they're going to be updated
1:14every single week up until the final Friday before the start of the season.
1:18So check it all out over on LateRound.com. It's a mailbag week though.
1:23I've got some good questions to answer, so let's get to it.
1:27The first question this week is from AtTrue0654. It says, What are your thoughts on Ashton Gentry this season?
1:33He was an amazing prospect in a terrible environment last season.
1:37Is it improved enough to be worth his ADP this year?
1:40So my overall stance is that I'm higher than the market on Gentry.
1:45But there's some detail that we need to talk about here.
1:48First off, one of the things that people have come to me about with Gentry and Bowers too, is the stuff that
1:56I talked about on this very show about the impact of rookie quarterbacks and the impact they have on the personnel on their team.
2:04I've done episodes on this in the past, where rookie quarterbacks tend to result in players underperforming in fantasy football, players on their team.
2:12But I think it's important to be clear why we see what we see.
2:16It's because the offensive environments of rookie quarterbacks are usually pretty poor.
2:20It's just shorthand for basically saying that, that we, as a market, are often too bullish on what first-year quarterbacks are going to do for their offenses.
2:29This is not a foolproof thing. Not every player who plays with a rookie quarterback ends up underperforming.
2:35Essentially, it's like a proxy for understanding which offenses might not be that good.
2:40But if a player's in a bad offense, or an underperforming offense, what's the way they can still be useful in fantasy football?
2:48It's volume, right? This is why I actually can get behind both Gentry and Bowers this year.
2:53Chances are, if you were to pull a thousand fantasy football players, I'd be more pessimistic than optimistic about this Raiders offense.
3:01I see the upside. I see the intrigue. Clint Kubiak is there now.
3:05They signed Tyler Linderbaum. They got Colton Miller back at tackle.
3:09And they probably are going to have a hard time being worse in the passing game than they were last year.
3:16But chances are, this is not going to be a studly offense.
3:20But their studs, they're probably going to see just an insane amount of volume.
3:25People pay way too much attention to efficiency metrics at running back, or previous season rushing production.
3:30I legitimately don't care about Ashton Gentry's 3.7 yards per carry rate from last year.
3:35There is zero predictive power to that singular number.
3:38It doesn't mean that he's going to be great.
3:41It just means that that specific reasoning for his demise is completely overblown.
3:46Especially when Gentie was second worst in yards before contact per attempt.
3:50The Raiders offensive line ranked 30th according to PFF's run blocking grades last year.
3:54Gentie's coming off a rookie season where he saw an 87% running back rush share.
3:59And all Vegas did with their running back room was add an athletic specimen with an average at best age adjusted college production profile in Mike Washington.
4:08Meanwhile, their number one wide receiver is who? Trey Tucker?
4:12Jalen Naylor? That can and it will have an impact on Gentie's target share.
4:16I'm not a believer in straight up vacated targets the way that others are.
4:21Because targets are earned and situation changes from one year to the next.
4:25But target share is always a 100% pie for every team.
4:29If players are incapable of commanding high target shares, then that provides a higher target share ceiling for the guys who are capable.
4:37There's only been one other rookie running back since 2011 to hit an 80% running back rush share in a target share as high as Gentie's last year.
4:46And that running back was Saquon Barkley. Volume dictates future volume.
4:50And there's such a lack of competition on this Raiders team.
4:53It only seems reasonable to project Gentie with a really high workload.
4:57And even in a mediocre to bad offense, that can be fine.
5:01But what if the offense surprises? What if they exceed expectation?
5:05That's where the ceiling outcome can really come into play.
5:08I think Gentie belongs in the tier after Christian McCaffrey right now.
5:12Now I'm lower than the market on Jonathan Taylor, so I have Gentie in a tier with him.
5:18And James Cook. That alone means that I'm more in than out.
5:22This next one's from Paul via the Late Round Members Hub.
5:26It says, what does it actually mean to read the draft room?
5:30I know I'm supposed to be doing it, but it feels like in my brain, that becomes overly simplified down to, oh crap, everyone is grabbing running backs.
5:39I guess I should too. Yeah, I think this is a really fair question and reaction.
5:45And I think it's an important topic to talk about.
5:48I've actually never broken this down before on this show.
5:51But to me, reading the room is seeing the direction that your league mates are going in the draft.
5:58See what positions they seem to be drafting a lot of.
6:01Most of you are going to go into a draft with some plan.
6:06You have some idea as to how things are going to go down.
6:10But you don't know if it's actually going to go down that way until the draft is actually over, right?
6:17So let's just say that you go into it, you think everyone's going to be valuing running backs really highly.
6:23And then they just keep drafting wide receivers. You need to react to the way that the draft board is falling and read the room.
6:32Read the fact that they're drafting these wide outs.
6:35Now, how do you do that? Well, you should know what you can get now and what you can get later.
6:42And the easiest way to grasp that is through tears.
6:45Like I think a lot of analysts will tell you to not fall victim to a draft run.
6:51Which is what you're alluding to in the question here.
6:54Everyone's drafting running backs and you say, Oh man, I really need a running back.
6:59I'm going to get one too. But that can actually be okay sometimes.
7:04Because there's a chance that those running backs are all in the same tier.
7:08And you see that tier is running out soon.
7:11So you get the running back who's also in that tier of players.
7:16What you shouldn't do is just blindly take that position because everyone else is.
7:20You potentially devalue that pick. Let's just say as an example, someone takes Josh Allen in your league 20th overall.
7:27Lamar Jackson goes 21st overall. Jaden Daniels and Joe Burrow, they go 22nd and 23rd overall.
7:32You shouldn't sit there at 24th overall and say, Oh man, I got to get a quarterback because all these quarterbacks are flying off the board.
7:41Because you know there are plenty of good options later at the position.
7:45And there's a huge opportunity cost in taking one that early.
7:49The only way you should consider a quarterback is if you know that 90% of the picks from that 2-3 turn until
7:56your next pick is going to be at quarterback.
7:59That's highly unlikely though in a single quarterback league.
8:02Even in a super flex league. So you're reading the room by seeing who they're picking and evaluating if you need to be doing the same thing.
8:11Or if you can find that kind of value later.
8:15Reading the room is also about understanding what your league mates are doing to see if you can extract value.
8:21I did a best ball draft the other day on the YouTube channel where I was in the 111 spot.
8:28The person in the 12th spot took Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow at the 5-6 turn.
8:33I didn't take Lamar because I have a lot of them and it didn't fit my build as well.
8:40But knowing that team had Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson meant that I could squeeze out more value when it was my turn to pick.
8:48So round 7 came along and I wanted Justin Herbert because I had Amari and Hampton and Lad McConkie on this team.
8:55But Jalen Warren had fallen. So I got Warren knowing that the team with Burrow and Jackson likely wasn't going to take a quarterback.
9:03And they didn't. So I got both players that I wanted.
9:07I got both Jalen Warren and Justin Herbert. Reading the room is about understanding tiers and where there might be drop-offs.
9:14And then playing the value extraction game based on other people's rosters.
9:18This has questions from Twitter. It's from at CanYouTicket.
9:21It says, Bucky Irving, how concerned are you after last season and being banged up this offseason?
9:27Look, I'm pretty concerned. In best ball, his ADP is kind of reasonable.
9:31But that best ball ADP is not what you're going to see in season-long drafts this year and what you see on various platforms.
9:39You'll often get Bucky Irving after pick 60 over on drafting.
9:43So into round 6. Consensus ADP across multiple big platforms like ESPN and Yahoo have him as a top 50 player.
9:50And that kind of cost is where I'm out.
9:53Because I'd rather be taking someone like DeAndre Swift over him.
9:57I like a lot of the upside for the year 2 backs in that range.
10:02He did average 13.9 PPR points per game last year.
10:05But he also finished last in rushing yards over expected per attempt.
10:09Which isn't everything. But when it's at the extremes, I'll pay a little bit more attention.
10:14And going back to what I talked about earlier, some rushing metrics are going to be better than others.
10:21But that's not really the crux of the argument for me.
10:24It's more so that his expected touchdowns were just two last year.
10:28And he saw zero goal line attempts. Sean Tucker played that role down the stretch for Tampa Bay.
10:34And then you look at the receiving workload and look.
10:38He's actually been pretty good per route run throughout his career.
10:41Irving should probably be used more there. But they added Kenneth Gainwell this offseason.
10:46That's sort of his specialty. So my fear with Irving is that he's seen as somewhat of an interchangeable piece with Kenneth Gainwell.
10:54And then he's more of like a between the 20s player.
10:57Rather than someone who gets a lot of work at the goal line.
11:02And then gets a lot of work through the air.
11:05And I don't think the goal line stuff is really going to change.
11:09Given these injuries. Given his health. It's just a tough sell overall.
11:13This next question is from Jamie via the Members Hub.
11:17It says, Hey JJ, apologies in advance for the long question.
11:20Everybody seems to always be looking for true X receivers as the most likely to become difference makers.
11:26Obviously the ability to play outside is important. But with the trend in recent years across the league of using too high looks often.
11:34It feels like the success of vertical routes has been limited.
11:38Some of the studs over the past few years have differentiated themselves.
11:42Through having the X receiver build. But thriving in slot usage.
11:46Drake London, CD Lamb. Even Jamar Chase and Jamison Williams using their yak ability.
11:50Is there something to be said for finding difference making receivers.
11:54By identifying a certain build with high slot usage.
11:57Or is it as simple as bigger route tree equals bigger talent indicator.
12:01I mean yeah we want versatility with our elite wide receivers.
12:05I did that episode on the death of the fantasy football wide receiver 2 to start this offseason.
12:11But I also did an email newsletter follow up.
12:14Where I talked about the death of specifically the slot receiver.
12:18In recent years we've seen fewer pure slot receivers across the league.
12:22Last year there were only 3 who had a 70% slot rate while running at least 300 routes.
12:28That's according to PFF data. That was by far the lowest that we've seen since 2011.
12:33And it wasn't even close. We also saw the lowest number of 50% or more and 60% or more rates.
12:40So the pure slot guy is kind of disappearing.
12:43And my theory is that teams are using more tight ends to replace those types of looks.
12:48If you look at the share of slot targets that have gone to wide receivers.
12:53So overall slot targets to wide receivers and tight ends.
12:57And the proportion of that that's going to wide receivers.
13:00If you look at that. There's been a consistent downward trend since 2018.
13:04So pure slot players. They're kind of disappearing. The Khalil Shakirs of the world are not very common.
13:10But slot work is still what we're after. According to true media data.
13:15The typical slot target has generated more fantasy points per target than a typical perimeter target.
13:20And that's based on pre-snap alignment. And it's not by a significant amount.
13:24But think about the types of players that are seeing those slot looks historically.
13:29Historically. Because this is over the last 10 years.
13:32There's a bias to this data. Better players are the ones who are playing on the perimeter more frequently.
13:38So you're still getting more points per target out of the slot.
13:42Despite those better players generally playing on the perimeter.
13:45So yes. Having versatile playmakers who can play inside out is always the goal.
13:50But taking this a step further. I think it's also part of the goal here.
13:55Because it shows intent. It shows creativity. If an offensive coordinator is moving his best wide receiver all around the field.
14:02Then that's probably a coordinator worth caring about for fantasy football purposes.
14:06A bigger route tree is important because you want these guys to be on the field for every single drop back.
14:13You want the ability to play inside out. You don't want a guy who can only play in the slot.
14:20That can cap his upside as we've seen with Josh Downs and Jaden Reed historically.
14:25But hopefully that changes this year. We're going to end today's show with a question from AtOnlyAndrewYouKnow on Twitter.
14:31It says, Love the pod. Thanks. Would love to hear your 30 second bowl case and bear case for the late first slash early second round running backs.
14:40As I'm having difficulty ranking them. To me that's Jonathan Taylor, Ashton Gentty, Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker, Amarian Hampton, Devon Achan, James Cook, and Chase Brown.
14:49They all seem clustered together. Thanks. So I love that you asked for both the bowl and the bear case here.
14:56Because I think looking at all angles is really important.
14:59And then you guys can kind of decide. But here's a very quick bowl case and bear case for each of those guys.
15:07Some I like more than others, which you can see in my rankings.
15:11Which are both in the draft guide and on Lateround.com for members.
15:15Though I do think that most of these guys just fall into one giant tier.
15:20So Jonathan Taylor, the bowl case. He was averaging over 27 points per game through week 10 last year.
15:27And even through the next few weeks before Daniel Jones tore his Achilles, he was averaging almost 25 PPR points per game.
15:34The bear case. Taylor's yet to see an 11% target share in a season.
15:39And he outperformed touchdown expectation by 4 or 5 touchdowns last year.
15:43Ashton Gentry. The bowl case. He's an elite prospect who saw a rookie season workload that's really only been seen by Saquon Barkley since 2011.
15:51As I talked about earlier. The bear case. Last year's woes were partially his issue.
15:56And the offense doesn't take a step forward at all this year.
16:00Saquon Barkley. The bowl case. Kevin Petullo is an awful offensive coordinator and it led Saquon Barkley to seeing by far his
16:08lowest rate of 20 plus yard runs of his career.
16:11The bear case. Barkley's 2025 was just the start of him being on the wrong side of the age apex.
16:18And Philadelphia's offense doesn't see any improvement without AJ Brown.
16:21Kenneth Walker. The bowl case. He sees a true bell cow workload and dominates in the red zone with one of the best offensive minds of this era.
16:30As his head coach. The bear case. He's reached an 8% target share just once in his career.
16:36And he doesn't take on a big enough receiving workload to pay off this price tag.
16:42Amari and Hampton. The bowl case. The Chargers offensive line is one of the best in football and Mike McDaniel helps LA
16:49become a top 3 offense allowing Amari and Hampton to lead the NFL in touchdowns.
16:54The bear case. It's a three headed backfield and Hampton doesn't see enough touches to warrant his ADP.
17:00James Cook. The bowl case. He takes on a larger receiving workload and completely dominates because he finally has a true bell cow workload.
17:08The bear case. Touchdown regression hits hard and he's still not able to hit a 10% target share.
17:14Something he's yet to do in his NFL career.
17:17Devon Achan. The bowl case. The Dolphins offense is better than expected with Achan as the focal point where he does hit that 20% target share.
17:26The bear case. Malik Willis is a disaster. The Dolphins offense is bottom 5 in the league.
17:31And Willis' mobility caps Achan's receiving ceiling. And then finally there's Chase Brown.
17:36The bowl case. He's the bell cow and one of the best offenses in the league continuing to dominate receiving work after
17:43hitting a 14.5% target share last season. The bear case.
17:46Not only does Samaj AP Ryan continue digging into his rush share, but Brown sees a serious decline in receiving work too.
17:54So there you go. Not overly scientific necessarily, but I think you can make bear cases for most of these guys pretty easily despite where they're being drafted.
18:03It doesn't make them bad picks. It's just recognizing the volatility of this game.
18:08That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
18:12If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are researching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
18:20And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on BlueSky at LateRoundQB.
18:25I'm actually taking a family vacation next week so you won't have a completely normal schedule for this podcast.
18:31You'll get an episode on Tuesday as usual and then we have a special Becoming a Best Ball Bro for you too.
18:38But that's it for next week. But I'll be back and I'll be refreshed the week after.
18:44And that's when things really get going. Take care everyone.
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