1101: Insights From Building Projections
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
34 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 19, 2026
Published
Tue, May 19, 2026
17
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
Jayden ReedJosh DownsAmon-Ra St. BrownBrock BowersChristian WatsonDe'Von AchaneJosh JacobsJustin HerbertMarvin Harrison Jr.Michael WilsonParker WashingtonSaquon BarkleyTerry McLaurinTravis Hunter
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveValue0:07
Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected to be undervalued and is close to the same tier as Jackson Smith and Jigba according to projections.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveBreakout0:05
Brock Bowers has the potential for a big season in the Raiders' offense, which is why he's currently ranked as the tight end one.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveRole0:20
Christian Watson has the most established role in the Green Bay offense, which is beneficial for his fantasy outlook.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveRole0:27
Devon Achan could see a significant target share in an offense that may rely heavily on running backs.
Insight pageJayden Reed
PositiveUsage0:19
Jaden Reed is projected to continue his slot role, which limits his fantasy relevance despite being a top 50 wide receiver.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:21
Jaden Reed has barely played in two wide receiver sets, but there is potential for increased usage if he can secure a role outside of the slot.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveUsage0:19
Josh Downs is also projected to remain in a slot role, which may hinder his fantasy production this season.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:22
Josh Downs is projected to be a slot player, but there is potential for him to exceed expectations based on his ADP.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
PositiveValue0:21
Josh Jacobs is not super expensive in drafts, making him a potentially valuable pick.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveProjection0:31
Justin Herbert's performance improved significantly when key offensive linemen were healthy, indicating a potential for a strong season.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveSleeper0:14
Marvin Harrison Jr. is projected to have a better season than Michael Wilson, making him a more appealing pick in the new offense.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeBust0:12
Michael Wilson's production last season was heavily reliant on injuries to teammates, making him a risky pick this year.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveRole0:22
Parker Washington emerged as a fantasy option last season, but his role may be limited due to increased competition.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveProjection0:25
Saquon Barkley is expected to improve this year after struggling last season, with projections indicating a bounce-back.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveRole0:10
Terry McLaurin is expected to be the centerpiece of the Washington offense, with plans to target him around 10 times per game.
Insight pageTravis Hunter
PositiveInjury0:22
Travis Hunter's injury last season led to changes in the Jaguars' offensive usage, impacting player performances.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection0:22
Trevor Lawrence averaged 22.7 standard fantasy points per game from Week 10 through Week 18, indicating strong performance potential.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:02This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, J.J.
1:05Zacharisa. JJ Zacharysen. What's up everyone? It's J.J. Zacharisa.
1:08And in this episode 1101 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
1:13I don't care about projections as much as others do in the fantasy football space.
1:18I know that probably seems backwards because of my approach to fantasy football being so analytics heavy.
1:24But it's true. I think projections are often overrated.
1:27And the reason I feel that way is because they don't capture range of outcomes that well, generally speaking.
1:33And they don't capture draft strategy. If you're in round 8 of your fantasy draft, are you looking for median outcomes or high-end outcomes?
1:41Are you looking at what's most likely to happen for a player?
1:45Or what could happen if things break a certain way?
1:48This isn't to say that you can't project for range of outcomes.
1:52You can do a degree. And this isn't me throwing shade to the people who build awesome projections.
1:58They're doing great work and it's not easy work to do.
2:02I'm just saying that I think people rely on projections a little bit too much in the fantasy football world.
2:09The application is where I really disagree. But that certainly doesn't make them worthless.
2:13I do projections every single year. I don't maintain them throughout the summer and into the season as well as I probably should.
2:21Because that can often just be like a full-time job.
2:24But I have them. I build them out. And I've been doing that for years and years.
2:30And this year I got some help with them from late round zone Brandon Gadula.
2:35That was nice to get some relief with that process.
2:38So props to Gadula for helping me out. I've always said though that building projections, it's not always about that end number.
2:46That final fantasy point projection. For me, it's always been about understanding the fantasy football landscape on a deeper level.
2:52When you're sorting through target shares. When you're sorting through efficiency metrics.
2:56And when you're projecting team level production. You start to see some things that you might not have otherwise seen.
3:03And that's what this episode is about each year.
3:06I'm not going to sit here and show you where late rounds projections differ from the market.
3:11That's not how I operate. You'll learn about my players to target and avoid throughout the summer.
3:17Instead, I want to talk through some of the more interesting insights that I thought about and discovered while we built projections this season.
3:25So without further ado, let's dig in. I want to start today's episode by talking about the Raiders.
3:31Because really, is there anything more thrilling than talking about an offense that has Jalen Naylor and Trey Tucker as starting wide receivers?
3:39The Raiders have a brand new coaching staff though with Clint Kubiak in town.
3:43And he's obviously going to influence what they do in a major way.
3:48First off, Vegas ran very few plays last year.
3:51That obviously had to do with the combination of their style, but also their efficiency.
3:56It was not a good offense. They ran the fewest plays per game last year though at 55.8.
4:02Teams who have run fewer than 58 plays per game since 2011 have seen that number increase by over 5 the following year on average.
4:10So just purely from a regression perspective, we should see more plays from Vegas.
4:15Now with that being said, Clint Kubiak has now coordinated three NFL offenses.
4:19The 2021 Vikings, the 2024 Saints, and the 2025 Seahawks.
4:22At each stop, his teams have had well below zero pass rate over expected rates.
4:27Last year for Seattle was nearly minus 7%. As we know, they leaned heavily on the run.
4:33That's led to slightly lower paces and slightly fewer plays per game for Kubiak's offenses.
4:38So while I do expect Vegas to improve on plays per game, I think we should realize that Kubiak's offenses aren't like, I don't know, Kellen Morse.
4:47They can run slower. What I do think we're going to see from his offense though is more efficiency.
4:53Over his last two stops, we've seen his offenses improve in yards per play year over year by about 0.2 and 0.4 yards per play.
5:01And he's done this through a heavier use of 12 personnel.
5:05In 2024, the Saints year over year use in 12 personnel rose by over 6 percentage points.
5:11For the Seahawks from 2024 to 2025, theirs rose by almost 13 percentage points.
5:15And the way this team is structured, that makes a lot of sense.
5:20They don't have super strong wide receivers as I talked about at the top.
5:24But they have a good running back, an elite tight end, and a great second tight end in Michael Mayer.
5:31The Raiders are going to want to pound the rock, but then also have the versatility to throw out of those heavier sets.
5:39Which means Brock Bowers and Ashton Gentey could eat in this offense.
5:43But also, I wouldn't be surprised if Michael Mayer is involved a little bit more this year too.
5:49The fantasy friendliness of this offense is really going to come down to efficiency.
5:53But Kubiak has at least shown us that he can bring that to the table.
5:58And I think there's a chance that we see a really big season from Brock Bowers.
6:04Which is why he's my tight end one right now.
6:07Now stemming from that discussion about Kubiak, let's talk about the wide receiver who dominated in his offense last year.
6:14Which is Jackson Smith and Jigba. I'm not worried that JSN is just going to bust this year.
6:20He's an elite player who can quite literally do anything on an NFL field.
6:24What I'm a little bit concerned about is what the projections are picking up on.
6:29And that's regression. JSN's not like the wide receiver 8 or anything.
6:33But he's just not as clear cut in that top spot as you might think.
6:38Like for example, the projections really like Amon Ross St.
6:41Brown right now. He's honestly close to the same tier as JSN according to those projections.
6:47Maybe that's more of just a St. Brown thing being undervalued.
6:50Which I think is part of this. But also, there is some natural regression that we should expect with JSN.
6:57First off, the dude had a 35% target share last year.
7:01Almost 36%. Since 2011, players who have been over a 30% target share have seen an average and median drop of 4
7:08percentage points in target share the following season. That's with a minimum 8 games played in both seasons.
7:14That only gets higher as that threshold increases. And obviously, JSN was a lot higher than a 30% target share.
7:21So with JSN, he's set up well to see a crazy target share still.
7:25But it's no guarantee that he's going to maintain his 163 target total year over year.
7:31But even if he does, let's assume that Seattle's more pass heavy with their new coordinator.
7:36There's no more Kenneth Walker. And maybe the defense just doesn't play as well.
7:41We typically do see that with defenses year over year.
7:44Smith and Jigba, regardless of volume, was unreal efficient last year.
7:48We have a sample of 85 wideouts with 50 plus targets in back-to-back seasons who hit 10 or more yards per target in that first season.
7:56On average, we see them drop in yards per target by 2 full yards year over year.
8:02JSN became one of the best deep threats in the league last year.
8:06That helped him out tremendously. I'm not expecting him to regress to his first two-season average here.
8:12However, he had 11 yards per target last season.
8:15Among that same group of players who had 10 or more yards per target in one year, roughly 80% of them ended
8:22up declining year over year in yards per target.
8:25And the players who typically do improve, they're not crazy target hawks.
8:29They're more deep threats. I still have JSN ranked as my wide receiver 3.
8:34But I do think that Puka Nakua and Jamar Chase, they project better than JSN this year.
8:39Just because there's a little bit more room for error.
8:43And don't sleep on Aminra St. Brown. The projections really like him.
8:47They think that he should be living sort of closer to that JSN tier.
8:51I just don't think that we can use Minnesota's 2025 season as the baseline for what we're going to see here in 2026.
8:59Kevin O'Connell's been their head coach now for 4 years.
9:02During his first three seasons, the Vikings averaged almost 64 plays per game, over 5.5 yards per play, almost 2.5 touchdowns per
9:10game, and an average pass rate over expected of nearly plus 3%.
9:14Last year, their plays per game fell by 12%.
9:17Their yards per play by 11%. Their touchdowns per game by 18%.
9:21And their pass rate over expected went to minus 1.2.
9:24Which was four whole percentage points lower than their previous three-year average.
9:28And obviously, this stemmed from poor quarterback play. Now, we don't know exactly what Kyler Murray is going to look like in this offense.
9:36But it's pretty easy to say that it's going to look better than whatever the heck it was last year.
9:43Minnesota was fourth worst in EPA per dropback last year when they ranked 9th, 16th, and 12th the three years prior.
9:50And that was across more than just one quarterback.
9:53Kyler Murray hasn't given us a ton in recent years.
9:56But I'm very hopeful that we're going to see a much better Minnesota offense this season, here in 2026.
10:02Last year just stands out as such an outlier from what we've seen historically under Kevin O'Connell.
10:08People were burned by Terry McLaurin last year. But I'm here to say that McLaurin was still very good at wide receiver.
10:15He himself, when healthy, when active, at 30 years of age, was actually pretty awesome.
10:20Now, I talked about this on the show this offseason already.
10:24I had him as a bye candidate for win-now teams in Dynasty.
10:28But McLaurin last season had his second best yards per team pass attempt rate of his entire career.
10:34He had his absolute best yards per route run rate at 2.22.
10:38This was at 30 years old in an offense that had a carousel of quarterback.
10:43McLaurin has still only hit a 25% target share once in his career.
10:47But I actually think there's a chance that we see that again in 2026.
10:52All they did was add Antonio Williams to the wide receiver room.
10:56Jaden Daniels is healthy. And David Blau is offensive coordinator now.
10:59I remember being at Radio Row this year and we interviewed Josh Johnson on the Late Round Show.
11:05But he was very excited about Blau and Washington.
11:08We don't know exactly what this is going to look like.
11:12But from the interviews that I've watched, I like what I've heard.
11:16Blau has talked about the importance of play action, which continues to be a cheat code, disguising his looks, getting creative to confuse defenses, and to use motion.
11:25And they've quite literally talked about Terry McLaurin being the centerpiece of this offense.
11:30In February, Blau said, quote, This thing's going to be built around how do we get Terry 10 targets per game?
11:37Considering McLaurin looked the part last year and looking at the competition right now on that team, Jaden Daniels is healthy.
11:44I'm in. And projections reflect that too. Arizona's a tough team to wrap my head around right now.
11:50On one hand, we saw Jacoby Brissett not only allow Michael Wilson to be fantasy relevant last year and Trey McBride to
11:57just put up insane numbers, but he himself was relevant up until the end of the season.
12:03The backfield was a mess with injuries, but it was somewhat of a surprise offense for fantasy purposes.
12:09Now in 2026, we're looking at a new coaching staff.
12:12Jacoby Brissett is probably under center, and then they added Jeremiah Love in the draft.
12:17Projecting this team is really not easy. Part of the problem is that last year, the Cardinals were first in the league in pass attempts.
12:25Typically, given their pass attempt number, we've seen teams regress by a few pass attempts per game year over year.
12:32The majority of them do. If that happens, we're looking at the potential for 50 fewer pass attempts year over year for Arizona.
12:40Meanwhile, there's this really weird Michael Wilson problem to solve.
12:43Last year, Jacoby Brissett took over in week 6.
12:46From week 1 to week 5, Michael Wilson averaged 3.8 PPR points per game.
12:51That was along the same lines as Josh Reynolds and Andre Yosibosh.
12:55Brissett then takes over, and from week 6 onward, Wilson was the wide receiver 11 in fantasy football with 16.4 PPR points per game.
13:03We would take that all day long this year.
13:06But we have to remember that Marvin Harrison Jr.
13:09wasn't totally active and healthy over that time period.
13:12Post week 5, Marvin Harrison Jr. ran around on 80% or more of Arizona's dropbacks in just three games.
13:18Week 7, 9, and 10. He either missed every other game, or he was well below that 70% mark.
13:24Which is not his norm at all. In those three games, Michael Wilson scored 9.1, 7.4, and 7.0 PPR points.
13:31That was on a 13.8% target share per game rate.
13:34To put that another way, all of Michael Wilson's serious production with Jacoby Brissett last year came without Marvin Harrison Jr.
13:41being 100%. And say what you want about Marvin Harrison Jr.
13:45He clearly has not lived up to the hype.
13:48But I think if you were to tell someone that last year, he and Michael Wilson had almost identical yards per route run rates.
13:561.58 versus 1.59. They'd probably be surprised. Wilson commanded a target on 20% of his routes run.
14:02Marvin Harrison Jr., 19%. And remember, there was a large sample here where Michael Wilson was playing without Marvin Harrison Jr.
14:09That's why it's hard for me to feel really bullish about Michael Wilson in 2026.
14:13And I, along with the projections, we're more bullish on Marvin Harrison Jr.
14:18between the two wide receivers. I pretty actively faded Marvin Harrison Jr.
14:22last year. But at his current cost and what projections are saying, he's not a terrible pick.
14:27Because this is a brand new offense, a brand new system.
14:31I'd much rather bet on the high-end prospect than the guy who only produced when an injury occurred to another player last year.
14:39And who did, if we're just being honest with ourselves, he benefited from a team with a lot of passing volume.
14:46Honestly, guys, last year's Michael Wilson season reminds me a lot of 2024's Jerry Judy season.
14:51In 2024, Judy averaged 14 PPR points per game.
14:54He had a stretch of games where he was dominating in fantasy football with Jameis Winston.
14:59But his peripherals were never spectacular. His yards per route run rate that year was 1.72.
15:05It's not like he got significantly better as a player.
15:08And Judy also benefited from injuries to his teammates, just like Michael Wilson.
15:12And Judy ended up running the most routes in the NFL that year.
15:17Because, like the Cardinals, the Browns led the league in pass attempts.
15:21And like Judy, Michael Wilson was 4th in the NFL last year in routes run, according to PFF.
15:27Now look, the Cardinals are probably going to still be pass-heavy, just given how bad that defense projects.
15:33But with Wilson's peripherals really not being spectacular, with his splits alongside a healthy Marvin Harrison Jr.
15:38last year looking iffy, I can see why the projections are just not that into him.
15:44Now I mentioned the Brock Bauer stuff earlier, and I think Trey McBride, he should still be the tight end too.
15:51But it's funny to say this, after how his career started, he's probably not going to score 11 touchdowns again.
15:57Now it's true, he didn't like harshly outperform his expected touchdowns last year.
16:02But the Cardinals also set him up well. And I'm not convinced that that's easily repeatable.
16:07Especially because there's a very real chance that Jacoby Brissett is not starting for that team the entire season.
16:13We could get Carson Beck. In fact, I think we will get some Carson Beck.
16:18And then through all of this, there's also a lot of ambiguity with Jeremiah Love.
16:23That's why this whole thing is just really difficult to project.
16:27I didn't even mention the change in staff and how that comes into play.
16:31I do think we see a more effective run game, and we might see a team that wants to really run the football.
16:39They wouldn't have taken Love third overall if that wasn't the case.
16:43But this is also a classic case of not getting carried away with just duplicating what that team did during the back half of the 2025 season.
16:52There's a lot of change in Arizona. And we can't forget about certain injuries that occurred last year that enabled some of these things to be unlocked.
17:01So the TLDR is that I'm afraid of this offense.
17:04And I'm definitely afraid of taking Michael Wilson at ADP, given these projections.
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18:58Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com. I've talked up both Jaden Reed and Josh Downs over the last month, but
19:05I want to call them out here because projections show that there's at least some opportunity.
19:10Projections are based on median outcomes, and the median outcome for Josh Downs and Jaden Reed is that they continue their slot rules.
19:18They don't grow that much from them, and that's it.
19:21They're not super relevant in fantasy football. But even with that being the assumption, Reed and Downs are comfortably top 50 wide
19:29receivers right now on the projections front. And meanwhile, according to Fantasy Pro's average draft position data, Reed is wide receiver 39, Downs wide receiver 45.
19:37Which means where they're getting drafted right now really isn't that far off from just their median projection.
19:43But we know there are non-injury outs for both wide receivers, which doesn't exist for many wide receivers in that range in general.
19:51For Reed, we're assuming that Matthew Golden takes a step, he's really able to play consistently in two wide receiver sets.
19:58For Josh Downs, the only guy in his way in those groupings is Nick Westbrook-Akine.
20:03There was a fantastic article done by Fantasy Point's Ryan Heath last week on play caller tendencies.
20:08And specifically, he looked at play callers who often call plays with two or fewer wide receivers on the field at once.
20:16We've known for a while that heavier personnel or fewer wide receivers on the field can bring forth higher target shares and
20:23better fantasy production for the wide receivers who are actually on the field for those plays in those situations.
20:29Because instead of competing with other wide outs for targets, they're competing with tight ends or running backs.
20:35In that article, which everyone should read, hit my Twitter account if you want to see it, I quote tweeted it.
20:42But in it, Ryan talks about Christian Watson, who to me has the most established role right now in that Green Bay offense, that wide receiver.
20:51But he noted that the Packers, when Tucker Craft was healthy last year, they ran a lot more plays with only two wide receivers on the field.
21:00That's going to help Watson, there's no doubt. But it's also going to help whoever wins out outside of Watson.
21:07And right now, I think throwing that dart at Matthew Golden, it's absolutely fine.
21:11Despite the fact that I thought he was an overvalued prospect and he didn't do anything last year.
21:17But I am still drafting him right now. But because he's an overrated prospect and he didn't do anything last year, what
21:25if this is the year the Packers actually do use Jaden Reed more on the outside?
21:30He barely has played in two wide receiver sets in Green Bay.
21:34So don't get your hopes up. But Green Bay has historically had a lot more depth at wide receiver than they do right now.
21:42So for the Packers, I just like the Packers versus their cost because it's a bankable team.
21:47Matt LaFleur has had a top half offense in touchdowns per game every year that he's been the head coach there.
21:54And none of these guys, including Josh Jacobs, are super expensive.
21:58But in front of Jaden Reed is an often injured Christian Watson and a completely unproven entity in Matthew Golden.
22:05It's objectively an interesting setup for a guy who's been very, very efficient per route run throughout his NFL career.
22:11And with Josh Downs, I may not like the situation as much, but Nick Westbrook-Akine is not tough competition.
22:18Again, median outcomes show that Reed and Downs are simply slot players.
22:22That's what the projection is going to show. But I wouldn't just make that assumption no matter what.
22:28If it doesn't happen, there's a chance they do very well against their ADP this year.
22:33So last season, the Jags acquired Jacoby Myers prior to their Week 10 matchup against Houston.
22:38When they did that, Travis Hunter was done for the year, and they were switching usage around for Parker Washington.
22:45From Week 10 through Week 18, the Jags were 5th in drives ending in a touchdown.
22:50They were 5th in drives just ending in a score.
22:54And Trevor Lawrence averaged 22.7 standard fantasy points per game through the end of the fantasy season.
22:59That was the second highest mark in fantasy football.
23:02The Jags were unlocked down the stretch last year.
23:05And I think we should feel very bullish about how that team overall is going to perform here in year 2 under Liam Cohen.
23:13With that being said, totally understanding the deployment for their personnel is a pretty tough task right now.
23:19You could argue that Parker Washington is similar to Michael Wilson, and that he kind of emerged out of nowhere.
23:26He was awesome for fantasy, but he didn't do it across the entire season.
23:31The difference for me with Washington and Wilson is that Washington was balling out with pretty good competition.
23:37Wilson's splits, they were pretty brutal when Marvin Harrison Jr.
23:40was active. That led to Washington having much better per-route run numbers.
23:44A 2.06 yards per-route run rate, a 23% targets per-route run rate.
23:48He just needed the opportunity, and he got that when Travis Hunter went down.
23:52Now, Washington played roughly half of his snaps from the slot last year, according to PFF.
23:58And I think my fear with him, if I'm just going to look at the downside risk, is that despite his numbers,
24:05Jacksonville just doesn't use him as much as we want them to use him.
24:10They went tight and heavy in the draft. They clearly are shifting to a heavier personnel offense.
24:15And that means the potential for fewer wide receivers on the field.
24:19With Jacoby Myers, Brian Thomas, and even Travis Hunter there, that could mean more of a rotation than we want for fantasy football.
24:27With that being said, I don't think I really want to fade anyone from this offense.
24:32It was so good last year when things started to click.
24:36And if you want to just capture all of it, you can obviously just get Trevor Lawrence too.
24:42But I'm just being honest, right here in May, that passing attack is really hard to nail down.
24:48But it's a good offense, and it projects well overall.
24:51We all know that Saquon Barkley struggled last year.
24:54Kevin Petulo was terrible as offensive coordinator. I'm willing to put the blame on him.
24:59The Eagles were bottom 10 in play action rate.
25:02They were bottom 5 in their use of motion.
25:05And they ranked 26th in percentage drives that ended up in a score.
25:10In 2024, within that statistic, they were 8th. Now, I'm not saying Jalen Hurts was brilliant.
25:15But I do expect this Eagles offense to look better in 2026.
25:19Specifically, Saquon Barkley. Barkley in 2025 saw very normal volume peripherals.
25:23An 81% running back rush share was nearly identical to what he saw in 2024.
25:28In fact, it was technically a little bit higher.
25:31His target share was 11.6% in 2025. It was 11.4% in 2024.
25:34The usage itself, the intent, was mostly the same.
25:37The difference is that none of the explosive plays were there.
25:41And hey, maybe he's breaking down a little bit.
25:44And we knew that he was going to regress in some way.
25:48His 2024 was just too out of control. But Barkley saw a 20-plus yard run on only 1.4% of his runs last year.
25:56That was by far a career low. He was able to gain positive yards at the second lowest rate of his career.
26:03And here's the real kicker. Barkley had 14 attempts inside the 5.
26:07At the goal line. He converted just one of them.
26:10One goal line touchdown on 14 goal line attempts.
26:13Now obviously, many of those attempts came outside tush-push range.
26:17But it's still a really bad conversion rate. Barkley ended up underperforming in the rushing touchdown column last year when looking versus expected.
26:24I fully expect things to be better for Saquon Barkley this year.
26:28And projections are showing that too. Miami is probably going to be bad this year.
26:33Which means they're going to be forced to throw a little bit more than usual.
26:38But guys, I really think they're going to just force feed their running backs and just let Malik Willis run wild.
26:45They just don't have the pass catching depth to do anything significant through the air sustainably.
26:51And Malik Willis in his 6 career starts, he's thrown no more than 23 pass attempts in a single start.
26:57He was at 10-16 in his first 2 starts with the Titans.
27:01But even if he hit that max of 23 across a season, that would finish as the second lowest from any team since 2011.
27:09If they did that per game. Now this isn't horrible for Willis from a fantasy perspective.
27:15Because we know that he can run. And Devon Achan could realistically see like a 20% target share in that offense.
27:22But if you're looking for a winner at wide receiver for the Dolphins, sure.
27:26Throw a dart at your favorite. Go for Jalen Tolbert if you want to.
27:31Just don't assume that someone has to emerge in this offense.
27:34This is almost definitely going to be a ground and pound offense with just shots down the field.
27:40The Malik Willis special. And the data certainly points that way.
27:44Let's talk about the Chargers to end today's show.
27:47Over the last two years, the Chargers had Greg Roman running their offense.
27:51Now, it's Mike McDaniel. Roman's known for using heavier personnel, his power run game.
27:56But he didn't do that quite as often with the Chargers.
28:00Mike McDaniel was actually bottom five in 11 personnel use each year in Miami as head coach.
28:05That wasn't always due to tight end usage. But I do think the recent signing of David Njoku tells us that they're open to that.
28:14And some of the lack of 11 personnel use is undoubtedly due to personnel.
28:18They had Tyreek Hill. They had Jalen Waddell. And they didn't have that much after them.
28:24But if you combine everything, McDaniel's historical use, the Njoku signing, his use of fullbacks, I don't think this is automatically a
28:31heavy 11 personnel team because they drafted Trey Harris last year and they have Ladd McConkie and Quentin Johnston.
28:37What that means is that the wide receivers who are out there, who are out there in one or two wide receiver
28:45sets, they're probably going to see an uptick in target share.
28:48And I think Ladd McConkie is the best wide receiver in that offense.
28:53So I've leaned into him in early best ball drafts.
28:56I think he's a candidate to make a leap this year.
29:00As I've noted on shows this offseason. There was a great nugget from that Ryan Heath article that I referenced earlier when it came to Ladd McConkie.
29:09He noted that McConkie ran just 10% of his routes from sets with fewer than three wide receivers in 2025.
29:15Jalen Waddell under Mike McDaniel was at 46%. So there's a lot of room for growth there for McConkie, assuming he's the
29:22one consistently staying on the field, which I think he's capable of doing because I think he's the best wide receiver on that team.
29:30And then whoever you like more between Quentin Johnston and Trey Harris, there's serious opportunity for them to make that jump as well.
29:38Right now I would lean Quentin Johnston because I think he looked a lot better in 2025.
29:44Unlike Greg Roman, Mike McDaniel gets awesome efficiency and fantasy relevance from his wide receivers.
29:49And part of the reason for that is McDaniel has been more pass heavy as a coach.
29:54His Miami teams were 17th or higher in pass rate over expected in all four years there.
30:00He had an average of plus 1.1 across his seasons as head coach.
30:04Roman was about two points below that with the Chargers.
30:08McDaniel is also known for scheming his guys open.
30:11Miami ranked first, first, second, and first in their use of motion while he was coaching there.
30:16For some context, Greg Roman's Chargers were 20th last year in their use of motion.
30:21And shout out to Fantasy Life for that data.
30:24Basically, McDaniel's offenses will isolate wide receivers and allow them to see bigger boosts in target share.
30:30We have to be open to that being personnel driven, but the Chargers moves this offseason tell me that they're probably still going to install a similar offense.
30:39They got a blocking tight end. They snagged Alec Engle to fullback and free agency.
30:44They're probably going to run the same Mike McDaniel offense.
30:48And I think that's good for basically everyone involved.
30:51McConkie could thrive. The run game should be efficient.
30:54I'm not necessarily super high on Amari and Hampton, because I think Chase Brown in that range is just a better bet here in May.
31:02But I definitely haven't faded Hampton at all. Meanwhile, Keaton Mitchell's speed, who they signed this offseason, his speed in this offense is very alluring as well.
31:11There are a lot of pieces to like. And then there's the offensive line.
31:15The Chargers are getting Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back, which should be a massive boost.
31:21Alt played a normal number of snaps last year in just four games.
31:25In those four games, Justin Herbert averaged nearly 22 standard fantasy points per game.
31:30Outside of those four games, Herbert averaged 16.7. Now it's a small sample, but we all watched the Chargers last year.
31:37Herbert finished with the highest quarterback pressure rate in football last year at nearly 44% according to NextGen stats.
31:43Now pressures, they can be quarterback driven. So this isn't all on the offensive line.
31:48But that number was 33% the year prior, with the exact same quarterback and the exact same offense.
31:54So I'm very much in on this Chargers offense this year.
31:58I think there's a chance that they're going to be seriously awesome.
32:02So those are my overall notes. There's plenty more to talk about.
32:06There's plenty more to discuss. But I wanted to get through some of the more pressing things.
32:11Or some of the things that I found most interesting.
32:15We've got a couple of months to dissect this stuff a lot further.
32:19That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
32:23If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are researching for it.
32:29Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
32:36Thanks for listening everyone. As a reminder, the Late Round show will be live on Tuesday at noon this week instead of Wednesday.
32:44It's going to hit your feeds then on Thursday as usual.
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