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0:45This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:49What's up everyone, it's JJ Zacharyarysen and this is episode 1129 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
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1:24Late-Round.com. Add Jonah Coleman. So J.K. Dobbins now has a hamstring injury.
1:29The Broncos are saying that he's quote good, but who knows with a hamstring injury and who knows with J.K.
1:35Dobbins? Meanwhile, R.J. Harvey, he also has a hamstring injury.
1:39So Jonah Coleman could all of a sudden be in line for a lot of work in week three.
1:45After Dobbins left this past Sunday, Coleman saw an 83% snap share and he had 80% of Denver's rushes.
1:52For what it's worth, on his eight rush attempts, he had a 50% success rate.
1:57I thought he at least looked the part. Now as many of you know, Coleman was a target of mine this summer,
2:05both in rookie drafts and in season-long drafts. Because I think he's a solid do-it-all back.
2:10There are three main production inputs in the ZAP model, which is my prospect model.
2:15Best season pro-rated reception share, adjusted total yards per team play, and adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt.
2:22And this is for running backs. And those adjustments for the record, they account for age and they account for strength of opponent.
2:30Within those three categories, Coleman ranked in the 72nd, the 49th, and the 88th percentiles.
2:35According to PFF data, he was 89th percentile and avoided tackles per attempt.
2:40So this is all to say, it was a weaker running back class, but I do think that Jonah Coleman was a good running back in that class.
2:49He's not the most explosive back in the world, but he can get tough yards and he can play every down.
2:56And now he might have some opportunity. So if Dobbins misses time, if Harvey's still limited, this could be the start of something big for Jonah Coleman.
3:06By Drake London. It's honestly hard to talk about the Falcons offense because they've been that bad to start the season.
3:13It's been a disaster. And Drake London managers, you're probably not feeling that great.
3:18He's seen a 19% target share through two games.
3:21Jahan Dotson has more than double his air yards.
3:24But what if I told you that Michael Penix, he has a chance to solve a lot of our Drake London problems.
3:32Penix entered the league in 2024. Since the start of that season with Penix under center, London's averaged 0.63 PPR points per
3:39route run and 2.99 yards per route run. And he's seen a target on almost 34% of his routes.
3:46Without Penix under center, those numbers dropped dramatically. London's PPR points per route run falls from 0.63 to 0.43.
3:52That's a 32% decrease. His yards per route run goes from 2.99 with Penix to 1.91 without him.
3:58His targets per route run rate goes from 33.6% to 25.6%.
4:02Now with Michael Penix returning, it doesn't mean the Falcons offense is all of a sudden going to be amazing.
4:09I'm sure it's going to take a minute for him to get acclimated.
4:14There's obvious risk here in buying into Drake London.
4:17But I do think based on history, there's a chance that he could turn things around pretty quickly with Michael Penix under center.
4:25So if you want to take a shot on a high upside player, one with some risk.
4:30There's no doubt there's risk here. I think Drake London makes a lot of sense given the way that he started this season.
4:38Add Denzel Boston. This is a repeat transaction from last week, but I think it needs to be repeated.
4:45Denzel Boston is still available in nearly 70% of Yahoo leagues.
4:49Right now, he's tied with Casey Concepcion with 11 targets this year.
4:53But he's seeing more valuable looks in that offense.
4:56After two games, his average up to target is almost 16 yards.
5:00He's generated 12.3 expected PPR points per game compared to Concepcion's 9.6.
5:04Now just to be clear, Boston is outperforming that expectation by roughly 5 PPR points per game.
5:10He's not going to keep this up if he continues to see this kind of usage.
5:16And my prospect evaluation work said that Casey Concepcion was the better prospect.
5:20But we can't ignore a couple of things happening in Cleveland.
5:24Number one, the Browns are likely going to be playing from behind this season, even with what happened in week two.
5:31That should create more passing volume. But number two, guys, Deshaun Watson has not been that, that bad.
5:37He's 16th in fantasy points per dropback. He's top 20 right now in EPA per dropback.
5:43Maybe it doesn't continue, but right now it's not like he's Cooper Rush.
5:47When rookies produce, and more importantly, when they're seeing strong peripherals underneath that production, you don't want to ignore it.
5:54So Boston should be on way more rosters. Add Emmanuel Wilson.
5:58So Janarian Price left Sunday's game in the fourth quarter with what was initially a chest injury, but they've said it's a shoulder injury.
6:06Fortunately, x-rays were negative. But there's at least some chance that he could miss some time.
6:12After Price left against the Cardinals, the Seahawks really leaned on Emmanuel Wilson.
6:16He saw 76% snap share in the fourth quarter.
6:19He handled two-thirds of the team's rush attempts, and he carried the ball 12 times, just in the fourth quarter.
6:26He was sprinkled in the offense before that, though, too.
6:30Over the first three quarters, he had a 41% rush share.
6:33Janarian Price was at 59%. Wilson's definitely the short yardage back on this team, at the very least.
6:40But obviously, if Janarian Price is out, he's going to see a little bit more work on the ground.
6:46But unfortunately, he's just not running many routes. He had just a 15% route share in week two.
6:52So if Price does miss any time, we're just looking at an early down runner and a Drew Locke-led offense.
6:59But fortunately, in week three, they get the Washington Commanders.
7:03So Emmanuel Wilson could be usable. Buy Josh Downs.
7:06So the market's understandably going to boost Josh Downs with Alec Pierce week-to-week with that heel injury.
7:12I'm just probably going to be more bullish. Pierce's injury on Sunday night came in the first quarter.
7:18From that point forward, Downs had an 83% route share.
7:21More importantly, he wasn't just a slot receiver. He ran 42% of his routes from the outside.
7:27For the record, Downs has just two games his entire career with a snap share above 60% and a perimeter route rate above 40%.
7:36And in week two, he commanded a lot of targets in that role.
7:40After Pierce left, he saw 36% target share and 42% of his routes resulted in a target.
7:46Those are incredible numbers. That type of target earning ability is not that new for Josh Downs.
7:52Among wide receivers with 300 or more routes run since 2016, he has a 92nd percentile targets per outrun rate.
7:59He's just needed more opportunity. And that's exactly why I'm interested in what this could look like.
8:04The fantasy football masses are going to elevate Downs this week.
8:08There's no doubt. But because he has a history of being viewed as mostly a slot player, I'm not sure the market
8:16will fully account for what this role might look like without Alec Pierce.
8:20And look, maybe Sunday night, maybe it's just a one game thing.
8:24But we already know that Downs can earn targets at a really high rate.
8:29If he can maintain that high route share while playing more on the perimeter, maybe we have a different fantasy ceiling for Josh Downs this year.
8:38Which is why he was a target in the late round draft guide in the first place.
8:44Because the Alec Pierce health situation, it was very much up in the air entering the season.
8:50So I'm willing to bet on Josh Downs' talent to find out.
8:54Add Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley. Saquon Barkley suffered a stinger in week two.
8:59He had just 10 offensive snaps for the Eagles.
9:02Now, Tank Bigsby was typically picked as the handcuff to Barkley.
9:06And he probably is still the preferred choice if Barkley were to miss any time.
9:11But Will Shipley's played a bigger role to start this season in that offense than I think any of us expected.
9:18A lot of that's come through the passing game.
9:21Shipley had a 57% route share compared to Bigsby's 17% against the Titans.
9:26And keep in mind, in week one, Shipley ran as many routes as Barkley did.
9:31Despite the huge discrepancy in their snap rate. In the end, Shipley played 38 snaps in week two to Bigsby's 24.
9:38Bigsby, though, had a 41% rush share to Shipley's 22%.
9:42And Bigsby got the goal line carry. That gives us a pretty good idea of how this backfield would probably operate without Saquon Barkley.
9:50Bigsby would likely handle more of the early down work, more of the goal line work.
9:55Shipley more involved as a receiver. So I would probably prioritize Bigsby because the Eagles could take more of a ground and
10:03pound approach in week three against the Bears. He's a less volatile choice.
10:07But Shipley's not a bad value off the waiver wire.
10:11I'm sure there's going to be a lot more spent on Bigsby than Will Shipley.
10:16I just wouldn't expect either player to just completely take over that backfield.
10:21Buy Tucker Craft. We knew it was going to take a minute for Tucker Craft to really get going this year.
10:28He was coming off that ACL tear. In week one, Craft had a 48% route share.
10:33He was able to turn that into a 15% target share, though.
10:37He saw a target on over 27% of his routes run.
10:41For context, in 2025, when he was dominating fantasy football, he saw a target on roughly 22% of his routes run.
10:48Then this past week, Craft's target share fell to just 10%.
10:52That's not good. But his route share jumped all the way up to 78%.
10:57Remember what we talked about last week on the mailbag episode?
11:01Early on in the season with tight ends in particular, we should care a lot about route share.
11:07At this point in the season, right now, route share matters more at tight end than target share does.
11:14And Craft's route share in week two was actually higher than his route share in 2025.
11:19So we've seen the target earning ability. And we've seen the route participation now.
11:24We just haven't seen them really happen in the same game yet.
11:28Jaden Reed's now banged up. The Packers defense doesn't look amazing.
11:32And they haven't been able to get much going with their run game.
11:36So I'd expect that production for Tucker Craft to start coming soon.
11:41So after two games, AD Mitchell has one more target than Garrett Wilson.
11:45He saw 70% of New York's air yards in week two.
11:49He finished the day with 19.4 expected PPR points.
11:52Omar Cooper's sideline with that ankle injury. That should continue to open up opportunities for AD Mitchell.
11:58And the Jets over their next two games, they get the Lions and the Bears.
12:03Two very beatable defenses. At this level of usage, Mitchell has a chance to be plenty usable in fantasy football.
12:10Sell Amari and Hampton. So look, I talked about the Chargers last week and I said they were just a hold.
12:17I didn't want to overreact to week one. After two games though, I'm a little bit scared about this offense.
12:24Actually, I'm very scared about this offense. Because week two wasn't very inspiring.
12:28After a terrible week one. Lad McConkie has been unreal important to this offense for the first two weeks.
12:35When he's been on the field, the Chargers are actually 7th in the NFL in EPA per play.
12:41When he's been off the field, the only team that's worse in that metric is Atlanta.
12:47The Chargers offense without Lad McConkie in terms of EPA per play has only been better than the Cooper Rush-led Atlanta Falcons.
12:54Think about that for a second. It's crazy. The wide receiver room though is not the only problem.
13:00The interior offensive line, that's a big problem too.
13:04On inside rushes this year, Chargers running backs have had the 4th worst yards before contact per attempt in football.
13:10That's a little bit better on outside runs where they rank 23rd.
13:15Justin Herbert's not playing well either. It seems like any time this happens with the Chargers, no one places the blame on Justin Herbert.
13:23Let's place the blame on Justin Herbert, at least some of it.
13:27He hasn't looked the part this year either. So this all leads us to Amari and Hampton.
13:33Hampton actually had a big week too. He carried the ball 23 times.
13:37He handled 72% of the Chargers' rush attempts. Unfortunately, he had a costly fumble, but usage-wise, he had a top 10 game
13:45across the league and expected PPR points. That's especially impressive when you consider that no team in football has targeted its running
13:52backs at a lower rate than the Chargers have through two weeks.
13:57Their running backs have combined for just a 5.6% target share.
14:00Just a little bump there? It could have been fireworks from a fantasy perspective for Amari and Hampton this past week.
14:08But like I said in the column this week, I'm just going to read straight from it.
14:14Like Jesse Spano coming off of her caffeine pill high?
14:17I'm so scared. Hampton has a sub-30% route share across these first two games.
14:22And listen to this gauntlet of teams that the Chargers are about to face.
14:27Week 3, they get the Bills, and then it's the Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans, and Ravens.
14:32The way the Chargers are playing right now, positive game scripts are not very likely during that stretch.
14:39Neutral ones aren't even easy to bank on. And that's a big problem for Amari and Hampton.
14:45When the Chargers have trailed by 7 or more points this season, Hampton has just played 50% of their offensive snaps.
14:52In a smaller sample, when they've trailed by double-digit points, he's just been pushed to the bench.
14:58If this upcoming schedule creates more of those situations, we're going to see less Amari and Hampton, more than likely.
15:04But look, I don't think Hampton is like just totally dust.
15:08His week 2 workload certainly didn't look like that.
15:11But this upcoming stretch is going to be tough for his fantasy value.
15:16And he's coming off a performance. In a world where everyone wants production, he's coming off a performance where he did produce.
15:23And your league mates just might not be aware of all the risk involved moving forward with Amari and Hampton.
15:30So I'd be looking to trade right now. Add Arande Gadsden.
15:34So look, I'm nervous about the Chargers offense, but I do think that Arande Gadsden, kind of intriguing this week.
15:41Charlie Kolar had a forearm injury. He was spotted in an arm sling on Sunday.
15:46Meanwhile, David Njoku, he was carted off with a knee injury.
15:50So the Chargers are going to be forced to play Arande Gadsden, even if they don't want to play Arande Gadsden.
15:57In the second half against Vegas on Sunday, he had a 71% route share.
16:02That's a high-end number for a tight end. And it's a big jump from his 14% route share in week 1.
16:09We saw Gadsden put together worthwhile fantasy production as a rookie in 2025.
16:14Now, with all these injuries around him, he might get an opportunity once again.
16:19That's enough to make him an add. Add Emmitt Johnson.
16:22Emmitt Johnson was a ZAP model favorite during prospecting season.
16:25Going back to the three main production metrics that the model looks at for running backs that I talked about earlier with
16:33Jonah Coleman, Johnson ranked in the 94th percentile in best season reception share, the 95th percentile in adjusted total yards per team
16:41play, and the 89th percentile in adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt.
16:45The knock on Johnson was his lack of speed and big playability.
16:49He had an explosive run rate in the 19th percentile, according to PFF data.
16:54But we've now had multiple games where Emmitt Johnson has stepped in for Kenneth Walker, and the Chiefs offense still looks great.
17:02Because Johnson himself looks great. I don't know if he's going to have a ton of standalone value without a Kenneth Walker injury.
17:10But Kenneth Walker is being used quite a bit in that backfield.
17:14So I think that Emmitt Johnson right now is one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football.
17:20We've been talking about him for a while, we talked about him last week, but he's still out there in more than 70% of Yahoo leagues.
17:29By Devon Achan. Now look, I love Devon Achan the talent, I just didn't love his price this year.
17:35Because the offensive environment was very scary. And so far through two games, I feel good about that assessment, overall.
17:42But I gotta be honest, his workload, it's even better than I thought it was gonna be.
17:48Achan was a monster in fantasy football last year.
17:51The peripherals backed that up. He had a 75% snap share, a 56% rush share, a 72% route share, and a target
17:59on almost 24% of his routes run. But his usage this year, those peripherals, have actually been better.
18:05His snap share is up to 82%. His rush share is 66%.
18:09His route share is essentially the same at 71%.
18:12And he's maintained his targets per route run rate at 23.9%.
18:16So basically his snap share has increased, his rush share has increased, his route share and his targets per route run, they've remained the same.
18:24The difference is that last year, he scored 20.2 PPR points per game.
18:29He was breaking long runs and he was scoring touchdowns.
18:32Right now, he's at 11.5 PPR points per game.
18:35And obviously a big reason for this, if not all of the reason for this, is that the Miami offensive environment is just not very good.
18:44But again, we can't deny this usage. According to late round fantasy football's model, Achan's expected PPR points per game right now sits at 17 points.
18:53And consider this, let's just assume that Achan maintains a 70% snap share and a 65% route share.
18:59That's it, just those two numbers. Since 2016, 17 running backs have hit both of those thresholds over a full season.
19:07All but one of those 17 finished with 19 or more PPR points per game.
19:12The lone exception was 2019 Le'Veon Bell. He carried the ball 245 times for a 3.2 yards per carry.
19:18Even he scored more than 14 PPR points per game.
19:22What this transaction is really all about is just going against market sentiment.
19:26No one wants anything to do with this Miami offense because it has not been good.
19:32But we have to be at least a little bit open-minded to some improvement.
19:37It's only been two weeks. With the type of usage that Achan's seeing, a little improvement in that offense can go a really long way.
19:45So if I'm you, I'm not breaking the bank to get Devon Achan.
19:50I'm trying to buy low. I'm trying to buy very low.
19:54Because he's often not so great of a start from a production standpoint.
19:58But the usage, it's definitely there. Add Antonio Williams.
20:01The fantasy football world understandably loves production. A week ago, you'd find content all over the internet raving about Antonio Williams.
20:08He was coming off a rookie debut where he caught all four of his targets for 64 yards and a touchdown.
20:16And that was his first game as a pro.
20:19But we're seeing less of that in week two.
20:22Now it's probably because Jaden Daniels is hurt, sure.
20:25But it's also because Williams didn't give us a usable fantasy performance against the Cowboys.
20:30He caught just three passes for 24 yards. But I was actually more encouraged by week two than I was week one.
20:38I talked about this on the 10 Trends episode last week, but I liked Antonio Williams as a prospect.
20:44His top comp in the ZAP model was Lad McConkie.
20:48After a strong week one, he was rewarded. His route share jumped from 26% to 52%.
20:53He ran the same number of routes as Stefan Diggs against the Cowboys.
20:58And he played inside out. 50% of his routes came out wide.
21:02That's the kind of development that we should care about for a rookie wide receiver.
21:07Even when the fantasy points don't immediately follow. But yeah, Jaden Daniels being out definitely a bummer.
21:13But if you want a longer term stash, someone who's already showing us some promise, who could earn a bigger role, Williams definitely makes sense.
21:21But yeah, if you want some short term ad, you can get Rashad Bateman if you want to, if Zay Flowers is sidelined again.
21:30But again, I think a lot of people are going to be quiet about Antonio Williams this week when they weren't last week.
21:38People might even drop him. Just know his peripherals were actually kind of encouraging.
21:42Add Bryce Young. I was not high enough on Bryce Young this past week.
21:47I knew he did it against the Falcons in the past, but I had a lot of concern about the potential back and forth in that game.
21:57And I was wrong. Bryce Young has been balling out through the first two weeks of the season.
22:03His EPA per dropback is sixth best among quarterbacks with 30 or more dropbacks this year.
22:08He trails only Josh Allen and Brock Purdy and fantasy points per dropback.
22:13And get this, Carolina ranks first in the NFL right now and pass rate over expected.
22:18Now, I don't know if this is going to keep up.
22:22In fact, I would probably bank on this not keeping up.
22:26Not to this degree. But the Panthers have decent weapons around Bryce Young.
22:30And they get the Browns and the Lions up next.
22:34So he could be a good fantasy quarterback at least through September.
22:38Add the Kansas City Chiefs defense. Defense. The Chiefs are still available in about two thirds of Yahoo leagues and their 10
22:46and a half point road favorites against the Dolphins this week.
22:49According to NextGenStats, Malik Willis has faced the third highest pressure rate in the league.
22:54He's also posted the third worst pressure to sack rate among quarterbacks.
22:59Kansas City's defense have been about league average and pressure rate so far this year.
23:04But this is a matchup where that pass rush should be able to get to Malik Willis.
23:10So it's a good spot to stream that Chiefs defense.
23:13We've got a bonus transaction this week and it's one that I'm really happy about.
23:18It's to add Terrence Ferguson. Now Puka Nakua was sidelined in week two.
23:23That definitely helped Ferguson get more run in this Rams offense.
23:27He finished the day with six catches for 54 yards and a touchdown.
23:31What was more important here though was the usage.
23:34He had a 72% route share and a 30% target share.
23:38He saw a target on 39% of his routes run.
23:41Now it doesn't sound like Puka Nakua is going to be out that long.
23:46But if he misses another game, you know that Terrence Ferguson can be usable when that's the case.
23:52You know there's injury upside here. But what if this is the start to something bigger for Terrence Ferguson?
23:59That's why he's an ad this week. That's it for today's show though.
24:03Thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are
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24:14And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
24:19Thanks for listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly 10 trends episode.
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