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1110: The Late-Round Quarterback Rebound

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

20 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 14, 2026
Published
Tue, July 14, 2026
20
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
Matthew StaffordBo NixBrock PurdyCaleb WilliamsDaniel JonesDeshaun WatsonDrake MayeJalen HurtsJayden DanielsJoe BurrowJosh AllenJustin FieldsJustin HerbertKyler Murray
Player analysis

Player insights

20

Bo Nix

PositiveRole0:13

Bo Nix is cited as one of the recent quarterback prospects entering the league since 2020 who provides rushing production, and is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice for a top-five finish.

Insight page

Brock Purdy

PositiveRole0:13

Brock Purdy is cited as one of the recent quarterbacks who has done a lot with his legs in recent years and is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice for a top-five finish.

Insight page

Caleb Williams

PositiveRole0:13

Caleb Williams is cited as one of the recent quarterback prospects entering the league since 2020 who provides rushing production, and is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice for a top-five finish.

Insight page

Daniel Jones

NegativeProjection0:16

Daniel Jones was the only drafted quarterback among those with three or more rushing points per game entering 2020 who did not have a really good season, breaking the pattern of predictability.

Insight page

Deshaun Watson

PositiveProjection0:16

Deshaun Watson was one of only three drafted quarterbacks coming into the 2020 season with five or more points per game via rushing, and the market did a good job putting him up top.

Insight page

Drake Maye

PositiveBreakout0:13

Drake May was added to the quarterback mix as a borderline studly quarterback last year, contributing to the shift in quarterback predictability and the influx of rushing quarterback talent.

Insight page

Jalen Hurts

PositiveRole0:02

Jalen Hurts is identified as one of the elite rushing quarterbacks whose mobility has made early quarterback drafting more appealing as an alternative to late-round strategy.

Insight page

Jayden Daniels

PositiveBreakout0:13

Jayden Daniels was added to the quarterback mix as a borderline studly quarterback in recent years, contributing to the shift in quarterback predictability and the influx of rushing quarterback talent.

Insight page

Joe Burrow

PositiveRole0:13

Joe Burrow is cited as one of the recent quarterback prospects entering the league since 2020 who provides rushing production, making him more predictable in fantasy football despite being primarily a pocket passer.

Insight page

Josh Allen

PositiveRole0:02

Josh Allen is cited as one of the elite rushing quarterbacks whose mobility has made it more appealing to draft quarterbacks early rather than relying solely on late-round quarterback strategy.

Insight page

Justin Fields

PositiveRole0:13

Justin Fields is cited as one of the recent quarterback prospects entering the league since 2020 who got a lot of starts and provides rushing production.

Insight page

Justin Herbert

PositiveRole0:15

Justin Herbert is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice to potentially finish in the top five if he has a strong passing season.

Insight page

Kyler Murray

PositiveBreakout0:15

Kyler Murray is identified as a quarterback who could break fantasy football if things go his way due to his crazy ceiling thanks to rushing juice.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

PositiveBreakout0:03

Lamar Jackson's 2019 MVP season was a watershed moment that fundamentally changed how the fantasy football market values quarterback rushing production, making mobile quarterbacks more predictable and valuable in fantasy football.

Insight page

Malik Willis

PositiveBreakout0:13

Malik Willis is identified as a quarterback who could break fantasy football if things go his way due to his crazy ceiling thanks to rushing juice.

Insight page

Matthew Stafford

NegativeProjection0:15

Matthew Stafford's MVP season and crazy touchdown rate season have resulted in a far lower ADP than he would have received six to eight years ago, as the market has become smarter about regression.

Insight page
PositiveProjection0:16

Matthew Stafford demonstrated that pocket passers in good environments can still thrive and hit their ceiling in fantasy football, as evidenced by his outlier MVP season last year.

Insight page

Patrick Mahomes

PositiveRole0:15

Patrick Mahomes is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice to potentially finish in the top five if he has a strong passing season.

Insight page

Ryan Tannehill

PositiveProjection0:03

Ryan Tannehill's 2019 season demonstrated that strong quarterback performances no longer automatically catapult a player's draft cost into the top 10 the following year, as the market has become smarter about regression and rushing production.

Insight page

Trevor Lawrence

PositiveRole0:13

Trevor Lawrence is cited as one of the recent quarterback prospects entering the league since 2020 who provides rushing production, and is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice for a top-five finish.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

207
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Lowe's knows Sundays are for football, so tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and
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0:30So enjoy a cup of tea in your lie-flat suite and get ready to experience all London has to offer.
0:37Lie back, relax and let your dreams take flight.
0:40Welcome to Alaska Airlines. This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:45What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen and in this episode 1110 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
0:52The very first thing I ever did in the fantasy football space was write an e-book.
0:58This was back in the 2011-2012 timeframe and everyone was drafting quarterbacks early.
1:02In 2012, we had five quarterbacks get selected in the first two rounds of drafts as a reaction to a wildly good 2011 quarterback season.
1:11And that didn't make any sense to me. So I put together a fantasy football strategy guide, an e-book on late-round quarterbacking.
1:19Now that document today, super cringeworthy. It's really not good at all.
1:23But it set the foundation for what I'm now doing.
1:26And some of the concepts that I wrote about back then are still the same concepts that I refer to all the
1:34time on this podcast or in the late-round draft guide.
1:38Supply and demand. Opportunity costs. We know all this by now.
1:41Quarterback and tight end, but we're focused on quarterbacks here, it's a onesie position.
1:46You start just one of them in your lineup.
1:50Because of that, people don't need them as much.
1:53So they get pushed down draft boards and you can often get usable ones in the later rounds as a result.
2:00It's why in super flex leagues that doesn't happen.
2:03Because in super flex, the demand is greater at quarterback.
2:07That causes the prices to increase. For years and years, late-round quarterbacking, it wasn't just a strategy.
2:13It was the strategy. If you weren't drafting quarterbacks late in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 in that timeframe, you were doing it wrong.
2:21Like, objectively. But that's changed a bit over the last 5 or 6 years.
2:26Players like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, they've made it more appealing to actually get quarterbacks early.
2:32Maybe not drafting one as early as we were back in 2012, but early enough to make you say, Oh wow, drafting
2:40quarterbacks late isn't the only way to win fantasy football.
2:43And I'll be honest with you guys. I've said this a few times on this show in the past, but I think it's worth repeating.
2:52Especially because there's new listeners and we're on the topic right now.
2:56But I've gotten a lot of stuff right and a lot of stuff wrong over these 15 years of being a fantasy football analyst.
3:04Of all of my takes though, the one that I'm most proud of came after Lamar Jackson's first MVP season.
3:11It was just before the 2020 season. I wrote an article on Numberfire, a site I used to work for and manage,
3:19titled, Did Lamar Jackson Break the Late-Round Quarterback Strategy?
3:22Now, he himself was a late-round quarterback that year and he broke out.
3:27But Jackson also made it so abundantly clear that the rushing side of fantasy quarterbacks was so, so important.
3:33And here's what I wrote in the conclusion of that article.
3:37I said, quote, You know, the truth is, the question about the late-round quarterback strategy in fantasy football this year shouldn't really revolve around Lamar Jackson.
3:46It shouldn't be about whether or not you're willing to take Jackson in the top 25 or the top 30.
3:53Instead, our focus should be on the fact that the fantasy football world has gotten smarter.
3:59In the past, a season like Ryan Tannehill's 2019 would have almost assuredly catapulted his cost the following year into the top 10 at the quarterback position.
4:08Yet today, the following year, he's being drafted as a mid-range QB too.
4:13Historically, fantasy managers didn't put a premium on quarterback rushing production.
4:17They ignored what's been dubbed the Konami code of fantasy football.
4:20We don't see that anymore. The consensus top 7 quarterbacks this year are all players who bring extra juice with their legs.
4:28So no, Lamar Jackson isn't what could break the idea of drafting quarterbacks late in fantasy football.
4:34You are. As the fantasy football world gets sharper, the late-round quarterback strategy may slowly morph into the middle-round quarterback strategy.
4:41Now, I mentioned this article before. I have pride in what I wrote.
4:46Because it went against everything I had written about and talked through up until that point in time.
4:52I sat here for literally 8 years saying that the late-round quarterback strategy was the only way to go.
4:59And I shifted that stance entering the 2020 season.
5:02And the result makes me feel even better about making that decision.
5:06Because directly after that 2019 season, things became more stable.
5:10The late-round quarterback strategy was not the only one that worked.
5:14In fact, there have been seasons here and there over the last 6 years where it hasn't been optimal.
5:20But I'm here to say today that the late-round quarterback might officially be back.
5:25Now, before getting deeper into this discussion, I want to remind you guys about the late-round draft guide.
5:31It's live. It's out there. It's ready to be consumed.
5:35If you pre-ordered, make sure you check your email inbox.
5:38If not, go to lateround.com. The guide has tons of strategy-related information.
5:42It talks about how to spot breakouts, busts. There's players to target.
5:47There's dart throws, avoids, rankings and tiers, and more.
5:50And many of those sections, they're updated every week up until the start of the season.
5:55To learn more, check out lateround.com. I referenced 2020 being a turning point for the quarterback position in fantasy football.
6:02And the data backs that up too. There's something in statistics called the coefficient of determination.
6:08You probably heard me and others call it R-squared.
6:11R-squared tells us how much of the variation in one variable can be explained by another variable.
6:17When one variable perfectly explains the other, R-squared is 1 or 100%.
6:21When there's no relationship at all, R-squared is 0 or 0%.
6:25We can compare two football variables and find that relationship.
6:28And I and others do it all the time.
6:32You guys have seen nerds talk about it on Twitter through the years pretty frequently, I'd imagine.
6:38One thing I do with the coefficient of determination is look at average draft position or where a player essentially ranked heading
6:45into the season versus how that player actually performed in points per game.
6:50If we were to get an R-squared of 1, then that would mean we were perfect with how we essentially ranked each quarterback that season.
6:58The QB1 actually ended up scoring the most points, the QB2 was the second highest scorer, and so on.
7:05Now clearly that never happens because ADP is far from flawless.
7:09Players underperform, they get hurt, all sorts of things happen.
7:12It's an unpredictable game. But ADP isn't always terrible at projecting quarterback output.
7:17One thing to know about R-squared is that the sample size you're working with can really dictate what that number's telling you.
7:25This gets overlooked quite a bit within the football space, so I want to call that out.
7:31If you compare quarterback ADP to postseason result, how do you know where to draw the line?
7:36As in, what's the sample that you're actually looking at?
7:40Top 12 quarterbacks by ADP? Top 18? Top 24?
7:43Are you looking at overall ADP? Are you looking at quarterback rank?
7:47All of those answers can shift and change how R-squared looks.
7:51Like, top 6 quarterbacks might actually see great correlation in a given season.
7:56The QB1 finishes the best quarterback among the 6 players, the QB2 is the QB2 in points per game, and so on.
8:03And if I sit on this podcast and say, look at how predictable quarterback was, it's really not giving you a reasonable
8:11idea as to how good quarterback actually was if I'm only looking at top 6 quarterbacks.
8:17Because what if the QB7 to QB12 actually outperformed the QB1 to QB6?
8:21For purposes of capturing the typical league economy, I usually look at top 18 quarterbacks when doing this analysis.
8:28That means in a 12-team league, half of your league is taking a backup.
8:33And we can see how those top 18 quarterbacks do from ADP to actual postseason result.
8:38Well, let's start with what happened from 2014 through 2019.
8:42And this is via Fantasy Data's ADP. From 2014 through 2019, among top 18 quarterbacks, we never had an R-squared above 25%.
8:49And for the record, I'm only looking at players who played 8 or more games here.
8:55Now, without context, that doesn't mean that much. But consider this.
8:59There's six seasons in that range, and four of the six seasons saw R-squared tallies that were below 5%.
9:05Meaning average draft position explained just 5% of the variation that we saw in points per game among top 18 quarterbacks.
9:13That's terrible. Then Lamar Jackson's season happened, and the year after, everything changed.
9:17Top 18 quarterback ADP to postseason result shot up to an R-squared of 48%.
9:22The next year, it was 55%. Then it was 30% in 2022.
9:26My hypothesis as to why this happened, why quarterback went from being totally unpredictable to actually pretty predictable, is because of rushing.
9:34The market started recognizing the importance of quarterback mobility after Lamar Jackson's MVP season.
9:39And rushing is far more predictive year to year.
9:42It's far stickier than passing is. In fact, when you look at quarterback year-over-year correlation of passing points per game versus rushing
9:50points per game, rushing points per game is more than twice as sticky.
9:54And that makes sense, doesn't it? Passing numbers fluctuate.
9:57A one-yard touchdown one year turns into a one-yard rush for the running back the next year.
10:03Touchdown rates regress. But with rushing, we generally have the same handful of quarterbacks giving us strong rushing numbers year in and year out.
10:12And so after that Lamar Jackson season in 2019, fantasy managers said, oh man, we can't let these guys slide in drafts.
10:19So they pivoted and we got better correlation. All the while, since that 2019 season, the top quarterbacks have actually been giving
10:27you a better edge in fantasy football. From 2014 through 2018, when you look at the top two quarterbacks in fantasy football
10:35by points per game, so not ADP, the top two quarterbacks and how they actually performed.
10:40And you compare them to the average points per game of the QB11 and QB12, the replacement level guys.
10:47You were typically in that five points per game range in VORP.
10:51Now maybe that didn't make that much sense, but really all I'm doing here is a quick value over replacement player calculation.
10:59We're looking at the top two quarterbacks in a given season, their point per game average, and we're subtracting the QB11 and the QB12's average from that.
11:08And those guys are the replacement level players in a 12-team league.
11:12From 2014 through 2018, the difference in points per game between the top two guys and the replacement level guys was typically about five points per game.
11:22It was never over 5.3 in a given season.
11:25From 2019, so Lamar's first MVP season, through last year, we've had seasons of 6.8, 6.3, 7.7, and 6.2.
11:32That's across seven seasons. So to put this all another way, not only has quarterback become more predictable, but those quarterbacks have
11:39also more frequently been giving you a larger edge in fantasy football than they were 10 years ago.
11:45And that's precisely why late-round quarterbacking, while still an appropriate strategy, wasn't the only strategy you needed to go with year in
11:53and year out over the last five or six years.
11:57Here's the thing though. I remember talking to you guys about this many times over the years.
12:03And I always got the question, when will this change?
12:06And my answer was, well, hypothetically, if you got 12 quarterbacks who could all run the ball really well and still give
12:14you good passing numbers, then we wouldn't need to draft a quarterback early.
12:18Because in that hypothetical, we would know that 12 guys had a legitimate shot to be the QB1 in fantasy football.
12:26So why reach or draft a quarterback early if that's the case.
12:30And really, we're starting to see that happen more and more.
12:34You know how I've been saying that that 2020 season was really a big turning point for quarterback predictability?
12:40Well, that year, we had 15 quarterbacks who played eight or more games score three or more points per game via rushing.
12:48Seven of them had four or more points per game and five of them had five or more points per game.
12:55From 2011 through 2019, so just before this season happened, the average season saw just seven to eight quarterbacks score three or more points per game via rushing.
13:05In 2020, just to reiterate, we had 15 of them.
13:08That was really the turning point not just because we recognized what mattered in fantasy football, but we also just started to
13:16get an influx of rushing quarterback talent. And to be clear, by rushing quarterback talent, I'm not simply saying Lamar Jackson types.
13:24I mean quarterbacks who can provide a rushing floor that's not like Matthew Stafford-esque or Jared Goff-esque.
13:30I'm talking about players who can still move a little bit to where if they have a pretty good season as a
13:37passer, that rushing production can take them over the edge.
13:41Think about who we've seen enter the league since 2020.
13:44Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields got a lot of starts, and now we have Malik Willis, Brock
13:52Purdy's done a lot with his legs in recent years, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake May, Bo Nix, Jackson Dart, Tyler Shuck, and hopefully Cam Ward.
14:01The vast majority of the quarterback prospects entering the league these days are not just straight up pocket passers.
14:08We might place them in some bucket if we looked at this through a binary lens of is he a pocket passer or isn't he a pocket passer?
14:18But these guys are giving us three or four points per game via rushing, which is making them more predictable in fantasy football.
14:26However, what we're also seeing with this math that I've been talking about is a change in R-squared.
14:32If we go back and look at the top 18 quarterbacks by ADP through the years, like I said, in 2020 and
14:392021, we saw a really strong correlation with where those guys were ranked, where they were drafted, and how they actually performed.
14:472021 was the highest R-squared that we've seen dating back to 2014.
14:51But since 2021, every single year, our R-squared has gotten lower.
14:55So what I think is going on right now is that yes, the market has gotten sharper.
15:01I mean, you can just look at Matthew Stafford's ADP right now after his MVP season, after his crazy touchdown rate season,
15:09and it's far, far lower than it would have been six, seven, eight years ago.
15:14Drafters are definitely getting smarter. They're recognizing things like regression.
15:18But we've got to give the actual quarterback landscape some credit for this shift in predictiveness.
15:23We've seemingly been adding a borderline studly quarterback to the mix every year since that 2020 timeframe.
15:29Last year, it was Drake May. The year before that, it was Jaden Daniels.
15:34But then we also have this second tier of quarterback who have just enough rushing juice to get them a top five
15:42finish if they have a really good passing season.
15:45Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, maybe Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, maybe even a Bo Nix.
15:51But then on top of that, we still have quarterbacks who could just break fantasy football if things really go their way.
15:59Like Malik Willis, Jackson Dart, Kyler Murray. Those players who have shown off this crazy ceiling thanks to their rushing juice.
16:06And then all the while, we know it's still very possible for pocket passers in good environments to thrive.
16:13It's just not nearly as predictable. They need someone of an outlier year to really hit that ceiling like we saw with Matthew Stafford last year.
16:22But the ceiling can still be hit. It's not like they're completely worthless in fantasy football.
16:27That group like Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, maybe Jordan Love.
16:31When you look at quarterback rankings these days, you're not staring at a linear list of pocket passers like you were even like six or seven years ago.
16:41Going into the 2020 season, only three drafted quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Deshaun Watson were coming off of seasons with
16:49five or more points per game via rushing. Only seven drafted quarterbacks had three or more points per game via rushing.
16:56The market did a good job putting those guys up top.
17:00And each one outside of Daniel Jones had a really good season.
17:04That's why the predictability was so strong. But then you look at 2026.
17:09Seven different drafted quarterbacks had five or more rushing points per game last year.
17:1416 of them had three or more points per game.
17:17In both cases, that's more than double what we saw back in 2020.
17:22So what does that mean? Well, considering most of you are playing in a 10 or a 12 team league, it means the potential for chaos at quarterback.
17:31If there are that many viable players out there who are running the ball, then there are that many reasonable options to
17:39finish as difference makers at the position. And if that's the case, if we've got a lot of mobile quarterbacks, a lot
17:47of dual threat quarterbacks, and even pocket passers in good environments to choose from, then I think it might be the year
17:54that we see a very clear late round quarterback rebound.
17:58That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
18:02If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football Pod, make sure you are researching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
18:11And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
18:16Like I told you guys last week, the podcast schedule this week, it's a little bit different.
18:22We do have a Becoming a Best Ball Bro episode coming out later in the week, but that's all you get this week.
18:30I'm sorry, I had to take a vacation. Make sure you check out that draft guide though over on LateRound.com and I
18:38will be back next week with the regular podcast schedule.
18:41I'll talk to you then. He's dribbling the ball with everything on the line.
18:46He's driving down the pitch. He's facing price hikes and cuts past him.
18:51Carrier contracts tries to block him. Oh, he leaves him in the dust.
18:55He's at the edge of the box. He cuts past the nonstop group chat trash talk.
19:01He clears on goal. He shoots. Unlimited data for $25 a month forever.
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