Late-Round Perspectives: Josh Norris Returns
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 22 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 7, 2026
Published
Fri, August 7, 2026
31
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
Chris RodriguezMalik NabersBucky IrvingXavier WorthyBrian RobinsonBrock BowersChigoziem OkonkwoChristian WatsonColston LovelandCourtland SuttonDeebo SamuelJacob CowingKenneth Walker IIILadd McConkey
Player analysis
Player insights
Brian Robinson
PositiveUsage0:14
JJ Zachariason notes that Brian Robinson Jr. is a target this year due to the Commanders' shift toward a wide-zone scheme, which aligns with his efficiency; Robinson led the NFL in yards per carry on outside zone runs (7.6) last season. Additionally, he is entering his second year with more experience, and his ADP is more favorable compared to last year's inflated price.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveBreakout77:26
JJ Zachariason identifies Brock Bowers as a 'must-have' player, citing reports that the Raiders' organizational goal was to have him break the NFL record for targets and catches. He expects Bowers to be a primary beneficiary of the league-wide trend toward heavier personnel groupings.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveUsage58:14
JJ Zachariason highlights Bucky Irving's past success under coach Liam Cohen, noting that Irving was the RB11 in points per game when he started during his rookie season.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout59:02
JJ Zachariason is drafting Bucky Irving aggressively, citing his elite college production metrics and explosive profile. He projects Irving to potentially fill a role similar to Travis Etienne's in Jacksonville, noting that Irving's past 'clumsy' moments were likely outliers compared to his underlying talent.
Insight pageChigoziem Okonkwo
PositiveUsage44:34
JJ Zachariason is cooling on Chigoziem Okonkwo as a breakout candidate, noting that he no longer sees a clear path for him to become the second target in his offense, which is typically required for a tight end breakout.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
NegativeRole13:43
JJ Zachariason expresses skepticism regarding Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s potential as a high-volume target earner, noting he had only seven catches in his entire college career and lacks the profile of a young prospect who might naturally progress into a pass-catching role.
Insight pageNegativeUsage57:18
JJ Zachariason notes that Chris Rodriguez is a highly efficient runner, ranking in the top seven in success rate and first-down/touchdown rate, but questions the coaching staff's focus on 'efficiency' over explosive plays.
Insight pageNegativeUsage58:54
Chris Rodriguez ranks in the top five to seven in efficiency metrics like success rate and first down/touchdown rate, but JJ Zachariason prefers drafting Bucky Irving over him due to the latter's explosive potential and the likelihood of a split backfield role.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue64:24
JJ Zachariason identifies Christian Watson as a high-value target in the 5th or 6th round. Watson's game has evolved from a vertical-only threat to a more complete route runner, evidenced by his out-route rate jumping from 7% to 35% last year. With a clearer role as the Z-receiver and less rotation in the Packers' offense, he has significant league-winning upside.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveSleeper53:18
JJ Zachariason is drafting Colston Loveland, viewing him as a potential difference-maker at tight end who moves like a wide receiver. He notes that Loveland's efficiency metrics in 13-personnel groupings were elite.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
PositiveBust43:10
JJ Zachariason views Courtland Sutton as a player lacking significant upside, describing him as a perennial 'fine' player. He prefers drafting Stefon Diggs over Sutton due to Diggs' superior peripherals and less target competition.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
NegativeProjection36:25
JJ Zachariason notes that Deebo Samuel is not the same player he was five years ago. He expects a potential repeat of last year where the veteran starts strong but sees his role diminish as the season progresses and younger players emerge.
Insight pageJacob Cowing
PositiveSleeper28:08
JJ Zachariason is optimistic about Jacob Cowing, viewing him as a strong double-digit round dart throw. While his analytical profile has flaws, his YAC ability fits the Shanahan system, and he has a clear path to opportunity following the Pearsall injury.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue69:14
JJ Zachariason is very bullish on Kenneth Walker III, ranking him 13th overall and noting he is an excellent value in season-long drafts where he often falls into the second round.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveBreakout78:09
JJ Zachariason highlights Ladd McConkey as a player who will see a significant benefit from the Chargers' shift toward heavier personnel looks, which will funnel more opportunities to the team's best pass catchers.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout45:51
JJ Zachariason is extremely high on Luther Burden, citing a 99th percentile breakout score in his model. He believes Burden's ability to manufacture space and his fit in the offense makes him a high-ceiling asset, even if he is being drafted at his peak price.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeInjury19:57
JJ Zachariason highlights how fantasy managers become hyper-fixated on training camp injuries, specifically citing the excessive aggregation of reports surrounding Malik Nabers' injury as an example of over-analyzing minor news.
Insight pagePositiveValue21:56
Despite initial injury concerns, Nabers is a top-five to seven wide receiver talent in the league. Getting him in the middle to late third round is exceptional value, and he is now a more frequent target for JJ Zachariason than when he was healthy due to the price correction.
Insight pageNegativeProjection24:15
JJ Zachariason ranks Nabers below Nico Collins, who he views as a stud, and considers him in the same tier as Drake London. He expects Nabers to settle into the third round, likely in the range of Chris Olave, AJ Brown, and DeVonta Smith.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeProjection72:19
JJ Zachariason is underweight on Marvin Harrison Jr. compared to consensus, citing concerns about the overall Arizona Cardinals offense and the potential for inconsistent quarterback play to limit his ceiling.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeBust74:17
JJ Zachariason is avoiding Michael Wilson, comparing his situation to Jerry Jeudy's 2023 season where situational volume and injuries to teammates created a temporary spike in production that is unlikely to repeat.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeProjection23:10
JJ Zachariason notes that while Rashee Rice is an elite fantasy producer when on the field, he is not as strong of a real-life player. He remains a difficult evaluation for analysts due to his limited profile despite his high fantasy output.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
NegativeInjury26:45
Ricky Pearsall is out for the year following surgery. JJ Zachariason expresses frustration with the situation, noting he had been high on Pearsall's potential before the injury news.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveProjection46:16
JJ Zachariason remains high on Rome Odunze, noting that his downfield target variance was poor last year. He believes that if Odunze lands on the right side of variance, he has an easy path to a breakout season.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
NegativeInjury20:18
JJ Zachariason contrasts the intense media coverage of Malik Nabers' injury with the relatively quiet reporting on Sam LaPorta's injury, noting that both players are ultimately fine, illustrating the inconsistency in how camp injuries are perceived.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveValue67:15
JJ Zachariason views Saquon Barkley as a value compared to current ADP, arguing that the Eagles' offense needs to return to a successful rushing attack to unlock their full potential. He notes that Barkley's goal-line struggles last year were an anomaly and that he could inherit high-value touches previously reserved for the 'tush push'.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue39:36
JJ Zachariason is high on Stefon Diggs in Washington, noting he is healthy after playing through an ACL recovery in New England. Diggs' peripherals, including target per route run rate over 24% and top-10 yards per route run, suggest he can thrive in a more traditional offense. Zachariason ranks him WR40 and prefers him over Courtland Sutton due to less competition for targets.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveProjection40:58
JJ Zachariason lowered Terry McLaurin in his rankings by two or three spots following the addition of Stefon Diggs to the Washington Commanders, though he remains a target for him.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeBust71:15
JJ Zachariason is lower than the market on Trey McBride, noting that his 2023 production was fueled by an unsustainable volume of routes and end-zone targets. He believes McBride's efficiency will regress, making him overpriced at his current ADP.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
NegativeValue35:54
JJ Zachariason prefers Jacob Cowing over Xavier Worthy for the upcoming season, noting that while both are upside bets, Worthy's profile remains questionable as he has yet to prove himself at the NFL level.
Insight pageNegativeBust69:48
JJ Zachariason is avoiding Xavier Worthy, citing concerns about his limited production (only three games over 80 yards in 34 career games) and his struggle to separate against physical corners. He also questions the downfield passing ability of Worthy's quarterback.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Lowe's knows Sundays are for football.
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0:22JJ Zacharysen is a fantasy analyst with Yahoo who co-hosts the popular YouTube channel with Hayden Winks, appropriately titled Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh and Hayden.
0:29He's a fellow resident of Charlotte, he's a dad, and he too is technically a JJ.
0:34These are his late-round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by DraftKings.
0:37We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball, and we've got a can't-miss offer on their biggest best ball contest ever.
0:44$20 million in total prizes. It's draft one, get one.
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0:56Enter a lineup in the $20 million best ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
1:02Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
1:05The crown is yours. I realized, I think the last time we did a show together, genuinely, was on perspectives.
1:11Yep. Like two and a half years ago. Was I sick then too?
1:15No, we, you know what we opened up with was an N64 discussion.
1:19There we go. Oh, I need to show you something.
1:22I wish I had it here. To follow along with that conversation.
1:25Have you ever heard of something called the AYN Thor?
1:28No. I don't play it. You know, I don't have time to play video games anymore.
1:33What is it? A system? It's a system that is basically like a 3DS on steroids that you can emulate basically anything
1:39from, I don't know, Super Nintendo to PS2 and it plays it like perfectly.
1:43Yeah. So I have this thing and I probably have like 50 games on it and I've played about an hour worth
1:49of Madden era PS2 and that's it. But it's just cool that I have all these things at my hands when I
1:56would have to go to like electronics boutique in Charlotte to like buy these games for 40 bucks and then trade them
2:02in for the next one and all that stuff.
2:05So it's a much easier world. Were you like me back in the day?
2:09This is so we're talking like early 2000s. Yep.
2:11You know, so what we're like early high school late middle school something around then and you open up Madden and you're simply doing franchise mode.
2:19And you're spending all of your time making sure that everyone has the right equipment that they actually wear on game days.
2:25Yes. Yes. And you gotta but like I would sit in my basement with my boys and we would I say that like they're my children.
2:33Uh, but like we would be hanging out. We would do we would draft teams back then.
2:37And I remember that it was my way of like understanding defensive players, especially because I started getting into like fantasy around that time.
2:44And so like I remember like it was when Ed Reed was like a year one year two type player and he was like sickeningly good and mad.
2:52And I'm like, who is this guy? And then we would always be drafting him early on in these drafts.
2:58And then he ended up being Ed Reed who we don't know.
3:02I mean, those are the days like you could just go home and the hours were just burned by and you would
3:08eat like, you know, pizza hut drink Mountain Dew.
3:11The world didn't matter. Calories and carbohydrates didn't matter.
3:13And, uh, I mean, sometimes I do wish like life is great, but like give me 24 hours back in that timeline
3:20and I would not sleep and I would take advantage of every single minute of it.
3:24Yes, I couldn't agree more. Yeah, man. It's in like the soundtracks of those games.
3:29So good. So memorable music. So memorable. I have a video game soundtracks playlist on Spotify that I listen to.
3:34It's like a bunch of good Charlotte and like POD and all that stuff.
3:38Some random links. You and I are like the exact same era of everything when it comes to NFL, when it comes
3:45to video games, when it comes to movies, pop culture in general and stuff.
3:49So I live in a neighborhood now that is like, you know, it has like a community pool and tennis courts and
3:55yeah, you know, there are there sidewalks in every street and it's, it's like its own little cohesive environment.
4:01So I actually get like, you know, kids walking to the end of the street to play with their friends or like
4:07riding bikes and doing all that stuff. And it does give me like this nostalgia of when we grew up and like that was allowed versus yes.
4:15Yeah, no, I got to drop you off here.
4:17That's across town 20 minutes and you can't go anywhere by yourself and all this type of stuff.
4:22So it gets me excited now that I have a seven month old that when they're seven, hopefully like their best friend
4:29lives here and they can just go over there for hours and hours and hours a day.
4:34I got to tell you, my daughter just turned eight.
4:37Yeah. Okay. And she has, you know, now that she's in elementary school and stuff, we have friends in the neighborhood that
4:43also go to her school and that are in her class and such.
4:47We will get the random kid ringing the doorbell frequently now just to say, hey, is she home to play?
4:52I mean, and then they go out and they ride their bikes because you can, you know, you can have an idea.
4:59Like I swear back in the day I would go out with my friends in the neighborhood and my parents had no idea where we none.
5:06Zero. There's no clue. They had no clue what we were doing.
5:10And I want to be a little bit more on top of that as a parent.
5:14But you need to, you know, you need to, you need to let them have a little bit of freedom and know where they go.
5:22And as long as you have a kid that you can trust, you know, it's a it's an important part of childhood.
5:28But yeah, we get the we get the doorbell ring and it's awesome.
5:32I mean, that has to be the dream, right?
5:34Like, yes, of it is because we all think that our our childhood and hopefully everyone thinks this is exactly what you
5:41want your kid's childhood to be in many ways.
5:43And now it kind of feels almost impossible in some areas, especially with how connected everything is and how they acquire information and all that type of stuff.
5:51But just the ability to do that is seems different than how a lot of people have it have it these days.
5:58Yeah. I mean, I can't judge now that I'm a parent how anyone else has their parenting styles or any of that.
6:04But man, I wish there was an easy way that like someone opened just a blockbuster.
6:09I'm sure you've talked about this with other people.
6:11And like that is the memory that kids have on Friday evenings, Saturdays is, oh, I walk in.
6:16Hopefully they have my movie ready or the video game and you have to look behind the plastic boxes and all that type of stuff.
6:24And, oh, are my parents going to allow me to buy a magic the gathering pack this weekend if I plead enough?
6:30If I, you know, rake the leaves, if I do all this stuff.
6:34Yeah. And yeah, I mean, I wonder what like the equal of that is now for kids.
6:39But it was great. It was great. I loved it.
6:42I mean, my daughter's into some with like the squishies are all the rage right now.
6:46Just think that you just you just literally squish.
6:49She literally gave me she wants me to have.
6:51We didn't have any baby babies. So I guess that's like.
6:54Yeah, it's a little bit like that. But like right now, like this is a looks like a piece of bread or like a roll.
7:02Right. And it's a squishy that she gave me to just go.
7:05And it's it's just like a, you know, little stress reliever.
7:08I hope it's not. That's not why kids are collecting them the way that they are is to relieve stress.
7:14But it wouldn't shock me if that's the case, because they're just inundated with so much.
7:19Not to make this the entire show. But did you ever consider when you finally showed her and your other kids like movies and TV shows?
7:26Did you ever think about going back to the start, like getting a CRT TV that's like four by three and like
7:33getting the actual VCR tapes and like starting with the early Disney movies and that stuff versus.
7:37I have not. But that's I mean, yeah, it's so easy.
7:41Right. Like versus like hitting Disney Plus and boom, there's whatever movie that you ever want, like actually having her have to
7:47like pick out the one on the shelf. And that's what we're watching.
7:51Yeah. You know? Yeah. I haven't thought about that, but it would be cool.
7:55It'd be a fun. It's a lot more work.
7:57Speaking of the blockbuster thing. Did you know? And look, I understand if you're not a millennial, then you can fast forward to probably three more minutes.
8:05But did you know that? So I'm assuming you played like Lion King on Sega back in the day or like.
8:11Yeah. Like the most difficult game ever. Thank you.
8:14OK. Did you know they made it that difficult on purpose because they didn't want people to rent the game for over
8:20the weekend and beat it and then not purchase it?
8:23Just just sickeningly sickening stuff. How disgusting. I know.
8:26Yeah. I mean, again, just go. And now they're like these.
8:29I don't know if you get targeted on Instagram and all this stuff, but when I'm just doom scrolling every once in
8:35a while, I get these reels that are AI generated.
8:38And it's like a Saturday morning in 1998. And it's like wintry and like, you know, it's chips ahoy everywhere.
8:44And it's like, again, exactly what your home that you grew up in looks like.
8:48I'm like, and then it just makes me think of it for an hour.
8:52Anyways, Toys R Us was an experience like that, too.
8:55Oh, yeah. Where you had to like pull the slip from the aisle and bring it to the kiosk.
9:01My gosh. I think I've told you this story before, but I mean, my biggest Toys R Us memory was right when Power Rangers came out.
9:08And, you know, the badge thing that they have that they go like, it's morphin' time.
9:13And then they turn into it. Anyways, I was, I don't know what age, seven or eight at that time and walking up and down the aisles.
9:20And I saw the thing. I saw the belt or the badge or whatever.
9:24And I was so scared to actually touch it because I didn't want the responsibility that I would actually turn into the
9:31Power Ranger that for the next, I don't know, 10 minutes, I just walked up and down the aisle just like giving
9:37it the side eye and looking at it and be like, okay, do I have the courage to do this?
9:43And I didn't. I never bought it. Oh, that's incredible.
9:46That is incredible. I thought I'd have to save the world if I bought it.
9:50I mean, look, that's the way that like, like my, so my son's three and a half and he's starting to get
9:57into like, he's like his whole personality is Spider-Man at this point.
10:00Right. And so like, and it's, it's fantastic. It's so much fun, but like he has that mentality too.
10:05He took a, we have like a little play kitchen in our playroom and he took a pot and a lid to
10:12the pot and that's his Captain America shield. You know, like, like that kind of stuff.
10:16And like, I could see him having that kind of reaction.
10:20But yeah, man, I'm a big, I'm a big nostalgia guy as well.
10:23Feel very fortunate that, that we loved our childhood so much.
10:27Exactly. You look back on those things fondly. I think that, yeah, you can't take that for granted for sure.
10:32For sure. And then now that's all we want to do for our kids.
10:36I know. I know. Christmas time, especially when was your son born again?
10:40The week before Christmas. So this one would be like the real, this will be like the next one.
10:46Yeah. Yeah. All that stuff. Yeah. So. All right.
10:48Let's talk, let's talk some football, I guess. I guess so.
10:51I guess we can do that. We have to.
10:54We're in the, like the thick of it right now in terms of, of camp news and such.
10:59And I know I, I personally, I'd love to hear your take on this too.
11:03You know, this is just a subjective thing, but I don't really remember a year where we've seen, and maybe it's just
11:10like the, the way that the wide receiver class was this year in general and that it was like, kind of, you
11:16know, pick your own flavor, you know, whatever you like, you know, there's a lot of flatness to it aside from some
11:22of the top guys, but it seems like we're just seeing like so much positive hype and favorable hype for so many
11:29guys that we know the hit rates of even day two wide outs.
11:33And then into day three, of course, you know, and we're seeing all of this, like just camp hype with these guys.
11:39So my question is like, are you feeling that way a little bit?
11:43And then my, my bigger question that I, that I really want to hear your thoughts on is like how you stay
11:49level headed with all the camp news and how you sift through it.
11:53I think there's so much of it this year, JJ, that I haven't even gotten all of it, like into my brain and seen it all.
12:00Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe that's a bad thing.
12:03We'll check in at the end of the season to, to find out.
12:07This kind of goes not just with training camp, but also if you want to use it for the NFL draft cycle,
12:13I think you're kind of the same way where you can't believe everyone, you know, you kind of have to pick out which people you actually trust.
12:21And with a lot of this stuff that is beat writers.
12:24And while they all might report and post the same things doing this for like a decade, there are like certain ones that you actually trust.
12:32Right. Right. Right. And I don't want to name them all or not name enough, but like Nick Underhill with the Northern
12:38Saints is one Jordan Ronan with the giants, Joe person with the Panthers.
12:42Like you can tell that these people have done it long enough that they can tell when something looks different, when something
12:48pops, when they have, you know, the coach's ear on certain things.
12:52And so it's, it's kind of like the drum beat with, with those people as it continues, the more and more I buy into it.
12:59But I, I'm like you, it's when these videos are kind of aggregated and posted, you don't even have time to like, look, okay, is this one-on-ones?
13:07Is it seven on seven? Is it 11 on 11?
13:09Is it versus a guy in the practice squad that might not even make the roster and all that type of stuff.
13:16So I think I read into actual preseason games and the pecking order and the divvy of touches and that more than anything else in the preseason.
13:24Yeah. Yeah. I'm with you. And like, there's some stuff, like again, the reporters that have been right in the past that,
13:30that seemed to have a real like, you know, ear within the organization and such like one that's, that really caught my
13:36eye over the last two weeks or so is, is Ben standing in the way that he's been talking about the Washington backfield, right?
13:43Where, you know, I was heavier on Rashad White thinking that it would go that direction.
13:48And I'm still, look, I still have my hesitations in saying like, oh no, Ja'Cory Krosky-Merrick can certainly be an eight to 10% target share player.
13:55I don't know if that's the case because he really wasn't that in college either.
14:00Like he was never, you know, a spectacular. No, I think it's seven catches during his entire career in college.
14:05Right. Right. And so like, I, I definitely have had, and he wasn't, he wasn't a young prospect either.
14:11You know, this isn't like a Braylon Allen situation where maybe it's learned a little bit, you know, just through, through that, you know, natural progression.
14:18But it is an eyeopening thing whenever like a beat reporter who's generally on point is saying something that makes you question your priors a little bit.
14:26I think you, you should be doing that. A hundred percent.
14:29That, that's a fascinating backfield. And to zoom out with it, I think we can get so focused on while the passing
14:36game and the receptions, are they going to go to one player?
14:39Right. Right. That's not true. You know, all that we need from bill is to just not be a total liability in
14:46that area to have like some level of trust to stay in on, on a certain number of those situations.
14:51And that's a big thing. Right. Yeah. Um, I actually have been taking a lot of bill this year for a number of reasons.
14:58Like, you know, you can turn whatever underlying metrics you want into a positive for any player.
15:03Like there's enough of a sample that these guys played that you can dig through something of a four game or a
15:09hundred snaps that look great for again, every single player that we want to draft this year.
15:14But for bill, like I remember, I think it might've been standing or JP Finley, both great on the Washington beat.
15:20Talk to Josh Connerly, the now second year, right tackle and him saying, Hey, in this offense, we're going to lead more and more into wide zone.
15:28And then you read that per, I think it was fancy points last year, the commanders were best in the NFL and
15:35outside zone at 6.1 yards per carry. And then again, bill led the NFL and yards per carry and outside zone at 7.6.
15:41Now that might not be a large sample. It might just be really skewed from that one chargers game where he was fantastic.
15:48And at the same time, I think he's going much later this year than he did last year when he kind of
15:54became a meme of the entire thing. So it's not, I think out of the realm of possibility that, you know, the
16:01second year, seventh round rookie who had some moments last year, but couldn't carry it for 17 games, just has more experience.
16:07The game has slowed down for him and has earned more trust kind of on the team going into year two.
16:13Yeah. Agreed. Agreed. And I, I, I think that that archetype of running back in general is one that I traditionally have
16:19like arbitraged a little bit, you know, where if it's not a 10% plus target share and you're looking at an early
16:26down runner, you know, and there's obviously, you know, there's more that he could build off of that.
16:31But like, I don't necessarily want to pay a premium on like a Dobbins type if he goes earlier in a draft
16:37or something like that versus just waiting a couple of rounds and going like Jordan Mason or, or Ja'Cory Krosky married or what have you, you know?
16:45I'm a little nervous that the commander's backfield turns into the Minnesota Vikings backfield.
16:49I think it could easily. Yeah. Yeah. Easily. And, and, you know, as much as we have seen the Vikings backfields or
16:55I should say team score top six, top eight, and we love KOC and all that stuff like in the end, their backfields just don't matter.
17:03Yeah. You know, they pass a lot near the red zone and the running backs don't get a lot of receptions and
17:09they divvied up like perfectly for again, these guys to kind of be irrelevant.
17:13And I'm a bit nervous that as much as we like to battle for three months during the summer in the end, no one wins.
17:20Yeah. Yeah. With backfields like that. Yeah. I mean, look, I've been talking ambiguous backfields from a strategy perspective for like a decade now.
17:27Right. And people seem to think that like, and like, it's a better way to attack backfields than, you know, taking standalone
17:34backs that have no running back competition, ADP wise in the middle rounds.
17:37Like there there's hard data that says that you would rather go after a middle round running back who has other teammates
17:44in the middle rounds being drafted around him than a standalone middle round running back with no teammates.
17:49And the reason for that is likely situation, right?
17:52Because if there's multiple running backs being drafted in the middle rounds, it means the situation is probably pretty good.
17:57Whereas you have to ask yourself, why is this running back being drafted isolated with no other teammates being drafted near him?
18:04Why isn't he being drafted higher? If he's, if he's clearly looking like the bell cow in that backfield is probably situation based.
18:10So I I'm all about going after these ambiguous backfields, but I think there's this notion out there that there's a really,
18:17really high hit rate of players emerging from ambiguous backfields, but it's the opposite.
18:21It's just that it's better odds, but you know, a lot of these backfields just maintain, you know, ambiguity and they have
18:27a split backfield for most of the season. First of all, I think you chose your packaging correctly because late round fancy
18:33football rolls off the tongue a lot better than ambiguous backfield fantasy.
18:37So you're definitely right. Good job with that choice.
18:39Yes. And yeah, I was looking at some over-performers last year based on where guys were drafted like Javante kind of goes
18:46against a little bit what you're saying in that he was drafted as running back 38 last year, finished as running back 12 and points per game.
18:54Travis HN was running back 33 finishes running back 13 and points per game.
18:58But, you know, you can kind of dive into why those things were the case pretty easily in that like Javante was
19:04coming off a down season, owning the backfield in Denver and we weren't really drafting any of the other guys in that backfield.
19:11And then, you know, Travis HN was also coming off an injured season that was down.
19:15And then, you know, we get a little hyped with, again, a large portion of the summer was Tank Bigsby and also Basial Tootin.
19:22And then it's kind of like a three person.
19:25And Jaden Blue, if we're being like he had, he had a pretty decent ADP and it wasn't like so, so far off of Javante, you know.
19:33But yeah, I agree. I do think, you know, looping back to the news item stuff, I do think that understanding which
19:39beats you can, you can trust and not just like be wary of the, the aggregators too.
19:44I think that's, that's important. You know, if, when they're not fighting things.
19:48Can I say one more thing on this too?
19:50Yeah. Like, I think the other difficult aspect of this time of year is figuring out which injuries matter and which ones don't.
19:57And that is, goes all through the summer too.
19:59Like we get hyper fixated on certain injuries like Malik neighbors and every report and every sentence.
20:04I mean, I would even say sentences get aggregated that maybe the person who's writing them didn't want us to read into
20:11the exact words that were used precisely. Yeah. But then, you know, I don't think anyone talked about the Sam Laporta injury as much.
20:18And like, now both are fine, you know, like again, listing all the neighbor stuff in the timeline was awful, but then
20:24it just switched on like a Sunday and Ronan and company all said, Oh, actually he's not even going to start the preseason on the pup list.
20:32Yeah. I'm like, yeah, this shocked my world. And that is one of those cases where for us trying to send information
20:38to the people out there, I feel like we were in the right to kind of interpret again, the timeline, the cleanup
20:44surgery, all that type of stuff and share a warning.
20:47But then as soon as, Oh, he's actually practicing and he's practicing at nearly top speed, you then have to totally change your tune.
20:54Yeah. And it sounds like a double standard or talking out of both sides of your mouth.
20:59But at the same time, like I'm trying to update my opinion and yes, it's in real time.
21:04And then now I hope you don't go watch this video.
21:07I made seven weeks ago and now just do the one that I did seven hours ago.
21:12I mean, but I think it's important though, to like establish that with your audience too, of like, I mean, they know
21:19that with you at this point that we get new, we get more information.
21:23We change our priors, you know, we change the way that we feel about, about players and situations and such.
21:28That's what scientists do. That's what, that's what smart people do.
21:32You're open to changing your opinion and you unfortunately on social media see people doing the opposite all the time and it just gets obnoxious.
21:39And I don't think, you know, I think that people listen to you and Hayden, hopefully are listening to me because, you know, we're just being truthful.
21:47You know, it's just the, the honest take that we have at that moment and we can only work with what we're working with.
21:54But speaking of neighbors, like, yes, I was cautious.
21:56Of course, you know, we had no idea what the heck was going on and I didn't want to say, yeah, draft
22:03them where you would draft neighbors because obviously there's, there's this knee issue.
22:06But where are you at with neighbors? Because it's obviously impacted his ADP.
22:10Where are you at with neighbors? Are you in or are you out where he's not?
22:15Let's say like mid third, if he goes mid third or early third.
22:18Yeah. And even on Yahoo, he's, he's still late third.
22:21Yeah. So there's still some value to be had there.
22:24Yeah. Previously when we didn't know what the injury timeline was going to be, he was going in, I think the most
22:30exciting area of wide receivers in the draft. Exactly.
22:33You know, it was that Jalen Waddle, Emeka Guka, Zay Flowers, Lad McConkie, Garrett Wilson, whatever order you want to do, even
22:39like Terry McLaurin and all that stuff. And so it's almost easier for me to draft him now than it was then, even though that price was later.
22:48Yes. Because I was so excited about all those other names and could easily tell myself the story of, oh, it's all positive buzz.
22:54And this is why they can be this year's X, Y, Z versus Malik neighbors.
22:59He's injured. We don't know the timeline. And now that he's not, even if he's going earlier, I'm clicking his name much more often.
23:06And I'm kind of deciding how to rank him versus where she rice, for example.
23:10Yep. And you know, where she rice has just been unbelievable whenever he's on the field and he's kind of doing his
23:16rehab in real time, goes back to the clips thing that you said at the top.
23:21Not so great so far, but again, we have to realize he was in freaking jail and rehabbing in jail.
23:27It doesn't seem real still. I mean, it's, but yeah, I mean, Malik neighbors is, is legit.
23:32One of the top five to seven wide receiver talents in the league and getting that in the middle of round three,
23:38early part of round three, the late part of round three is, is exceptional.
23:42I know you can say like Jackson dart had what 48%, something like that of his production fancy points last year were
23:48on the ground or in the air. I can't remember what the other side of it is.
23:53Anyways, I mean, he only played two quarters with, with Malik neighbors.
23:57So like how much can we lean on? Well, that's the only way he can generate fancy points.
24:02I would hope. And I would assume that, you know, the more Malik neighbors is out there, the more passing points Jackson,
24:08it's going to have on top of that. Yeah.
24:11I would imagine. I've kind of drawn the line with neighbors at like Drake London.
24:15Like I'm taking London over neighbors, you know? Of course.
24:18And, and that means you're taking him over Nico and pick.
24:21I'm at least considering him. And you know what I mean?
24:24Like, it's not like a ranking him that way.
24:27I think I still have him below a Nico who I think is just a stud player in general.
24:33And then, you know, Rasheed Rice is one of the more difficult things I think for fantasy analysts, because I don't think
24:39he's nearly as good as he is in fantasy in real life, you know, as an actual player, like very limited player versus what he does for fantasy.
24:47Right. But we're playing the game, you know, in the end, like we're, we're, we're, we're, we're trying to win here and
24:53we know how good he is whenever, um, you know, he's active in playing.
24:57And so like, I do think that's the range where, you know, like I'll, I'll do the thing if I'm in like
25:04the one Oh two, you know, in best ball or something like late second round in the two 11, I'll click neighbors
25:10to, to, to catch up a little bit because I'm with you.
25:13The, you know, I know this is more of a best ball take, but like I wasn't taking him much in the
25:20fourth round, which was a mistake in hindsight, obviously, because he's going a lot higher now.
25:24But I also see that like third and fourth round range is very flat anyway.
25:29So I don't think the opportunity costs, like if you're missing out on Chris Alave, you know, it's like a, it's like
25:35a Chris Alave versus Luther burden type question. Like there's a very real scenario where Luther burden outscores Chris Alave this year.
25:41You know, there's a very real scenario where Teddero McMillan goes bonkers on a 30% target share in that offense or something.
25:48And he outscores a guy like Alave. And so I'm not like as upset about like playing it cautious because I think it was flat there.
25:55We just, you know, if you haven't been drafting neighbors, you just really need to hope that you can continue to get
26:02him at like the two, three turn instead of him going at the one, two turn or something like that, where a
26:08healthy neighbors probably would go, you know? And I doubt he climbs much more than like that 302, 303 area, because I
26:14highly doubt he plays a single snap in preseason.
26:17Yeah, exactly. So, you know, the practice stuff can only go so far versus someone seeing, you know, a 40 yard catch and run touchdown.
26:24And if that happens, then, you know, we're back into round two, baby.
26:28Yeah. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just think like that's where the narrative plays out where he's going to still settle in the third round.
26:35And yeah, like the Alave, AJ Brown, Devante Smith area is where we're going to wind up with Malik neighbors for sure.
26:41Another big thing happened this past week, Ricky Pearsall out for the year.
26:45And once again, doesn't hurt or doesn't help me.
26:48That's for sure. Because I was, I was into Pearsall and what he could do this season.
26:53Given situation, I thought he was, I mean, I think Pearsall is a good player.
26:57I thought that he, you know, looked good last year, had good peripherals last year, but he's now done for the year.
27:03So the obvious question is we have this age Debo Samuel coming in and then we have Dazon Stripling, most, one of
27:10the more controversial rookies in this year's class who is going to more than likely get opportunity.
27:15Where are you at with those wide receivers? Yeah.
27:17Just my final comment on Ricky Pearsall, because, you know, the day before that came out, Harmon and I and Hayden recorded
27:24a 30 year wide receiver video where we asked, are we going to be the boys who cried wolf again on Ricky Pearsall?
27:30And then we're telling people to do it again.
27:33And then he gets injured. Well, he didn't get injured.
27:36He just, you know, has to have surgery on what he should have had surgery on before.
27:41Yeah. Anyways, I'm not allowed to talk about Ricky Pearsall until August 10th next year.
27:45I put my, I think it's a good, my cap on that.
27:48Yeah. Okay. On Stripling, I'll ask you this. Yeah.
27:51If it was, let's say any other draft class that just came into the league and the 33rd overall pick was thrusted
27:57into a possible starting job and his competition was a 32 and 30 year old wide receiver, like the fancy football bubble would be losing their ADP minds.
28:05Yeah. And, and they're not on Deshaun's dribbling. Yeah.
28:08And it kind of goes back to, as soon as he was drafted 33rd overall and shocked many people because of that,
28:14I mean, we even posted a dynasty rankings video and I was stunned to see he was like the two Oh seven or, or the two Oh five.
28:22And I don't want to like talk over you if you had him in that area, but like, I just didn't understand
28:29how like Nick Singleton was going at the 12th pick of the first round over someone like Deshaun's dribbling.
28:34And to me, that was like real anchoring bias of, well, this guy was productive in his first stop and it's all
28:41declined since then with Nicholas Singleton in his first year at Penn State versus stribbling, who was an older prospect and traveled a bit.
28:47And at the same time, man, I don't want to say let's just implicitly trust Kyle Shanahan, but at least the dude's going to get an opportunity.
28:55And I remember when Brandon Iyuk first got into the league and he was even the late first round pick.
29:01And the reason he rode the bench for so long was because, well, now maybe we see it with the attitude and
29:07his lack of blocking effort and all that type of stuff.
29:11I thought stribbling has a chance of being like the best blocker coming out of school, coming into this class.
29:16And so if he like checks these boxes and who knows, because he's injured on the sideline at this point.
29:22I think I'm just way more optimistic on Deshaun's dribbling than a lot of other people are.
29:27Yeah. I mean, I'll say this analytically doesn't look great.
29:30You know, even if you just look at like something as basic as like career yards per out run, it's like well
29:36below any sort of threshold that you would want for a typical guy to hit.
29:41Zap model definitely didn't love him. Like I was actually looking back because Cyrus Allen's another guy who's getting a ton of love right now.
29:48Right. And I didn't actually do any profile write up for Allen because he didn't get invited to the combine.
29:54He was a snub. Right. And I've, I've kind of limited myself for the, for the guide every year to only write
30:00up players who get invited to the combine. And so I actually still had Cyrus Allen ranked as a top four round
30:06rookie pick after the draft was over. I, you know, you can look in the prospect guy, like you can see his
30:13name there, but I, and I gave his score, but there's no profile write up for him.
30:17So I didn't do the same kind of deep dive with Cyrus Allen until, you know, basically June, because there's a lot
30:24of stuff going on in May right after the draft is over.
30:27And I actually think that like Cyrus Allen's analytical profile, if you were to just look at it straight up versus Deshaun's driblings is better than driblings.
30:35Like, like there's better age adjusted production. You know, you can at least like very clearly see how he was deployed in
30:41college, you know, a lot of slot work for, for Allen, but he got down the field and you can see how that would mesh with Kansas city.
30:50Now, when stripling came out, I was trying to be a voice of reason in like the middle shocker, uh, but trying
30:56to, trying to not throw out, you know, I'm trying to like think through this and not wanting to like take a
31:02crazy stand on something that I just don't think that we should take crazy stands on your, I feel like you're about
31:09to say something here about, about me here. No, no, no.
31:12It's just, you know, on the fence, Zachari, you know, we know, we know, and we love him.
31:17That's right. That's right. I'm just kidding. I was doing, I was doing a lot of analysis on like reaches, right?
31:23Like this isn't, this is objective data. This is not like some subjective, like I'm trying to like feel the vibes of
31:29what the community was saying pre and post draft.
31:32No, I'm looking at, at hard data of mock draft aggregate data and saying when we see reaches like this with the
31:38stripling, that the outcomes are generally pretty poor. Like, like, you know, it's, it's not great.
31:43And when you see the opposite happen where a guy falls in the draft, that's also not that great either generally, because
31:49that's telling us that multiple teams are passing on, you know, like Troy Franklin's a really good example of that, where it's
31:56like, he was a mock draft second round pick.
31:58And then he goes day three and all of a sudden, you know, I think that, you know, at this point in
32:05his career, we're not sitting there being like eager to draft Troy Franklin.
32:08Right. So with design stripling, you know, all of the reach stuff was really unfavorable for him.
32:13The analytical profile was really unfavorable for him. And I feel very similar to like, uh, uh, cause this wide receiver class,
32:20in my opinion, was just not very good. And, and, and there were just a lot of guys instead of like a
32:26lot of like guys that you could really latch onto and say, Oh, this guy's going to be a really like, you
32:32know, like I loved Luther burden last year in round two, there was no round two or round three player that like had this, like can't miss profile.
32:40And as a result of that, when I did my, my rookie rankings, it's just like so much flatness.
32:46It's just choose what you kind of want to do.
32:49And you can read the profiles that I wrote up and kind of go from there.
32:53As I've been thinking about stripling though, the more, the, the, the, the more I've thought about him, the more I bought into this idea.
33:00Number one, I agree him being a late round pick the way that he is.
33:05Why would you not take a chance regardless of profile, you know, regardless of what, but you can look at his, you
33:11can see some of the physicality even in the numbers with his profile because he did have some good yak ability and
33:17that yak ability is something that we've seen Shanahan system receivers thrive in.
33:21Right. And, and I think that's, what's been the turning point for me over the last month was dribbling.
33:27I was kind of starting to draft him before the Pearsall stuff started to happen.
33:31And so there's like regrets on one end for me of like, you know, going back to what we were talking about earlier about changing opinions and stuff.
33:39I wish I was a little bit higher on him back in May, you know, wish I maybe got more in rookie.
33:45I got some more in rookie drafts, but now I think he's actually a pretty good double digit round dart throw where go after it.
33:53See what happens. If you're wrong, not a big deal.
33:56I probably wouldn't go crazy in Dynasty just because the, you know, the backbone of the analytical profile is not fantastic, but
34:02guys like this, even if he has like an okay enough rookie season, you can see that value increase year over year.
34:08Still number of things to hit on there. You know, so often we hear the term upside talked about with just best ball.
34:15And it's like, you can take the big swings because the best score happens and is given to you every single week.
34:21When in reality, I think like swing for upside in your redraft leagues is equally as important, if not more important.
34:27Yeah. Yeah. Right. Because think about the end of your season, how much roster turnover there is.
34:32You also like don't get zeros in redraft. Uh, you can put someone in instead.
34:37So yeah, struggling to me is, is a great shout and it's for a lot of the reasons that you outlined.
34:43Um, there were so many occasions where it felt like two defenders had to like be on his back for him to go to the ground.
34:50It's exactly what you mentioned with the yards with the catch stuff.
34:54And then his final season played at Ole Miss where it's kind of the same thing with the Trey Harris profile where,
35:00and that was with Jackson Dart, you know? And I know Trinidad Chambliss is, you know, he might not go exactly where
35:06Jackson Dart did in draft anyways, but that one, everything's like so on a string and so in a line that you
35:13don't get like the full route profile or even that many end breakers on top of it.
35:17And I think like that can kind of distort some, not just stats, but eye tests and all that type of stuff.
35:24So I'm definitely not sitting here and saying that Deshaun's dribbling is a flawless prospect.
35:28Yeah. Yeah. But, uh, like you said, everyone that was drafted after round one had flaws.
35:33It just felt like those flaws were more accepting than Deshaun's dribbling's at the same time.
35:37Like I'd Ricky Pierce all his wide receiver 35 part of his injury scribbling at wide receiver 60.
35:43Yeah. It's not like I'm going to move scribbling up to wide receiver 35, right?
35:47You know, I'm probably going to move them up 10 spots.
35:50So around like wide receiver 50 and now that's battling like Xavier worthy, right?
35:54For example. Yep. And this, this might be an outlanded statement and we'll talk about it maybe later, but I want to
36:00take the game on Deshaun's dribbling over Xavier worthy this year.
36:04Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I can get behind it too.
36:07I think that's at least like the, the grouping and the tier it's like, you know, there's, there's other upside bets, but
36:13those upside bets are, are also very questionable because they haven't really shown anything up until this point.
36:18Are you Debo over stribbling or are you fading Debo?
36:21Is it like, I mean, like I ask, how do you see him fit in?
36:25We've, we've obviously seen it because he was there, but, but you know, he's not the same Debo that he was five years ago.
36:32Yeah. Admittedly, I was actually a big Debo guy this time last year and I felt really good through the first five games.
36:39Yeah. I mean, he opened the season in half PPR as wide receiver five, 21, 12 and six.
36:44Yeah. And for the opening five games. And then I think he missed a contest and then just went downhill from there.
36:50I have him like eight or 10 spots after stribbling here.
36:54It might be one of those cases that we see again, the peak of Debo in the first five weeks, the veteran gets most of the work.
37:01You feel like it's going really well. And then once the bi-week hits or as the season goes along, that's when like
37:08the Luther Burden stuff last year, that's when, you know, the, the rookie emerges and settles in and they figure out exactly
37:14how to use them and in what situations and all that type of stuff.
37:18So just overall though, if we just keep moving all of these 49ers down other than CMC, like, what is that telling us?
37:25Like I've moved Mike Evans down in the last couple of weeks too.
37:28Cause the injury, right? Like what, that's not a good thing for a team.
37:32And at the same time you can say, well, they all got injured last year and still look where Brock Purdy played and finished on a weekly basis.
37:41And obviously I was a huge advocate for CMC last summer, but one of the main reasons why I was drafting so
37:47many 49ers last year is because they had the easiest schedule across the league, like the easiest schedule.
37:52That's not the case this year. Right. So they'll probably run into a lot more difficult matchups with maybe weakened talent.
37:58And, uh, I still think Shani is awesome, but, uh, it's going to be tougher this year than it was last year.
38:04Yeah. I think that's a good take. Chat GPT can do more than answer questions.
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39:34Cold snacks. We also saw Stefan Diggs become a Washington commander, which wasn't really a shock.
39:38Reading between the lines, this was more than likely coming.
39:41But where are you at with him? I think this is one of the more interesting cases in fantasy right now.
39:47Yeah. I mean, what? He's coming off a thousand yard season that he barely played half the offensive snaps with the New England Patriots.
39:54And that was when he was also rehabbing a torn ACL all offseason.
39:58And he doesn't have any of those things now.
40:00Like, he's healthy coming into this year. Yeah. I'm excited for what this Washington commander's offense can be.
40:06Everything we're hearing about David Blau in comparison to Cliff Kingsbury are exact opposites.
40:10Exactly. Like, Cliff and Jane Daniels had an awesome first season together.
40:13But then, as you know, like, Terry played 74% of snaps as like a left wide receiver.
40:18Yeah. They were last in the league in motion or close to it and play action.
40:23And so, everything got stale in year two. And it just seems like they want to be a bit more traditional.
40:29Like, I hope they don't totally lean into that because I think that'll, you know, mess with the great things that Jane Daniels does.
40:36But, I mean, that's great news for someone like Stefan Diggs, who's like an outside to inside type player.
40:41Some of the best work that he did with the Houston Texans was in the slot.
40:46The same thing with the Patriots, all that type of stuff.
40:49So, yeah. I mean, I'm willing to draft Stefan Diggs.
40:52I think I have him as wide receiver 40 now.
40:55But what it made me do was actually drop, because I was super high on Terry.
40:59Like, so high on Terry. Yeah, I was too.
41:02And it made me drop him like two or three wide receiver spots.
41:06But even in that area, man, like every ranking matters.
41:09Yes. In that, what, fifth round territory right now.
41:11I feel like I jumble those wide receivers up every single week when I'm up there.
41:16You know, it's like, oh, I can see the case for, you know, T-Mac or whatever.
41:20But yeah, I love Diggs in Washington, man. Because last year in New England, you know, like you said, he barely played.
41:27Like, he didn't play a normal, you know, comp on the snaps.
41:30And, you know, he was like ranked 70th-ish, you know, 60 to 70th in route sharing.
41:35You know, like a 70% route share across the season.
41:38And then when you would see, remember that game against Buffalo where he just went nuts?
41:42And it was a game where they finally unleashed him and used him on a high number of routes.
41:48And he just went absolutely bonkers because his targets per route run rate was over 24%.
41:52You know, depending on your source, he was top 10 in yards per route run.
41:57I mean, like, he was great when he was running those routes.
42:00And I think the difference with New England and Washington, number one, you nailed it, the ACL recovery, which I feel like no one's talking about right now.
42:08And that could play a role as to why he wasn't playing as much.
42:12But number two, I would argue that New England at least had some interesting pieces, other wide receivers that certainly weren't, like,
42:19established by any means, but could at least, you know, like, you can use Pop Douglas in the slot.
42:24And you could, you know, throw Kyle Williams out there on the outside to stretch the field or Kayshawn Booty or, you know, whatever the case may be.
42:32And I look at Washington right now, and there is such inexperience slash question marks outside of Terry McLaurin that I don't
42:39think we're going to have the questions about route share with Stefan Diggs there, you know?
42:43Like, and imagine a world where he's running 80, 90% of the teams, a route on 90% of the team's dropbacks.
42:49I mean, he could go nuts. Like, I have him wide receiver 39 right now.
42:54And I think the market, I would anticipate ADP at least being slow to catch up, number one.
42:59But number two, I don't think he's going to end up in the home leagues and stuff and season-long leagues.
43:04I don't think he'll end up going that high.
43:07You know, like, I'm drafting him over someone like Cortland Sutton right now.
43:11You know, like, I think that it's a more intriguing situation and there's less competition.
43:15And I don't, you know, like, they're not that far off in age.
43:19And really, Diggs' peripherals have been better than what we've seen from Sutton.
43:23You know, Sutton, Sutton to me has just been the perennial, like, guy who doesn't have crazy upside.
43:28He's just fine, whatever. But Diggs, I can see a scenario where, like, he does inch into wide receiver two range in full PPR formats.
43:35I just made that change. I had Sutton one spot above.
43:38And so I just moved Diggs' above him. Now we're both at wide receiver 39.
43:43It's perfect. Yeah. But then it gets to the interesting territory of, like, the two names I have ahead of Diggs right
43:49now are Jordan Addison and Jordan Tyson. Right? Yeah.
43:51And, like, you get the Addison stuff with Kyler Murray, the down for passing, getting back to KOC.
43:57You know, Jordan Tyson. Hey, what is he with Tyler Shuck?
44:00What is he with Kellen Moore, who, you know, fastest pace in the league, most plays in the league.
44:05Like, that's really enticing. But then, like, behind him, it's now Sutton and Chris Godwin, among some other names.
44:11Yeah. So, yeah, it's the veterans to discuss. Yeah, I just went through all the snap counts last season for the Patriots.
44:17Matt Collins played more snaps than Stefan Diggs in every single game.
44:21Yeah. Yeah, I forgot. Totally. Like, every time I talk about the Patriots, I always forget about Matt Collins being part of that organization.
44:28Every single game. Yeah. Every game. It's crazy. Yeah.
44:30I mean, this is the perfect spot. Now, I was also drafting a ton of Chig.
44:35Like, I was. Yeah, me too. Yeah. I had a ton of Diggs.
44:38He was my most drafted player at points this summer.
44:41Really? Yeah. I mean, I was talking to myself into, hey, can he be David Blau, Sam Laporta?
44:47They're around the same size. I thought Ben Johnson did an awesome job of kind of masking some of the size and
44:53blocking deficiencies of Sam Laporta a little bit. And, you know, I think David Blau was the practice squad quarterback during that
44:59time on the Lions when Sam Laporta finishes the tight end one.
45:03I could have my timelines wrong, but something like that.
45:06And it still might happen. It's just not as possible for Chig to now be, you know, second in targets on a
45:12team, which is like when we talk about tight end breakouts, so often it's because those guys become like the funneled second pass catcher on their roster.
45:20It just doesn't seem like that's the pathway. Agreed.
45:22Yeah. I mean, I had him as a dart throw in the guide this year, and I don't think that I can necessarily have that anymore.
45:30It's funny because I have McLaurin as a target and I'm going to have Diggs as a target.
45:35And clearly there's, you know, a theme going on there.
45:38Speaking of players that are being hyped right now, I guess that was a pretty bad segue because we weren't really talking about hype players.
45:45Isn't that the most vanilla segue I've ever heard in my life?
45:49Let's talk about Luther Burden. Yes. Are you buying the coach speak?
45:52Like, where are you at with this trio of players in Chicago?
45:56Well, I love them all. And so that makes it difficult because, you know, the Twitter fights that happen all summer, you have to pick one.
46:03I know. You have to. I like them all, JJ.
46:06Are you even a fantasy analyst? I think I have them all ranked above ADP, but that doesn't mean I have them ranked higher than any other analyst.
46:14Does that make sense? Yeah, of course. Like, you know, Harmon and Hayden on the show this week or last week are
46:20now ranking Rome with Dunsley ahead straight up of Luther Burden.
46:23And I can't go there. At the same time, I can say, hey, Rome, so many of the downfield catches and every single like 50-50 situation.
46:31It was like fingertips. Yeah. The ball just went off.
46:34The variance wasn't on his side. I think his body control is awesome.
46:38Out routes, the downfield routes, all that type of stuff.
46:41That if that hits and he's on the right side of variance this year, then boom, it's easy to see.
46:46Yeah. At the same time, I look at it and Luther Burden, his ADOT's like half that.
46:51Yeah. And so often we think, oh, well, the guy's running the big downfield posts and nine routes.
46:56That's what we want in fantasy football. Like those big explosive plays, that's what we're chasing.
47:01No, man, we want the gimmies. Yeah, we want the scammers, man.
47:04Yes. And especially we want the gimmies to the guys that are like generational with the ball in their hands.
47:10Exactly. Exactly. And that's Luther Burden. And we also want that when it's tied to a coach that does probably more than
47:17anyone else, a better job of manufacturing space for the players that are awesome with the ball in their hands.
47:22And that is Luther Burden. So I totally get that maybe we're drafting him at his quote unquote top price and that's
47:29the middle of fifth round on Yahoo. And I know in best ball, what, that's the middle of fourth round basically.
47:35Yeah. But when I'm on the clock, man, I'll still click it every once in a while.
47:40Yeah. You know, it's not a price tag. And we'll talk about some wide receivers later on that like, yeah, I like
47:46him well above everyone else in this tier. For him, I just want pieces.
47:50I just want options. Yeah. Because he is one of these players that has such stark and standout positives and where he
47:56wins elements to his game on a coach that maximizes those.
48:00Exactly. That if he just improves the other aspects to him, like some of the bad drops last year or these digs
48:06and in breakers and winning in one-on-one isolation routes that he grew into last year.
48:10And like, hey, if Caleb Williams doesn't become just a totally errant passer on these 15, 20 plus yards throws on the
48:17field and becomes like average at that, then we could be looking at like a awesome, awesome player.
48:22So does that model loved Luther Burton? Like I even wrote in his profile when it came out that if does that
48:28model had a baby, he'd probably name it Luther.
48:31Like it was, it was crazy. Like his score even right now, I think was, I pitch it to my wife.
48:37She said no. Yeah. Like even now I updated the model scores and stuff and like his score is ahead of despite
48:43draft capital, which is obviously going to get weight is still ahead of like T-Mac and a Buka and it likes T-Mac and a Buka.
48:50Like it just looked at burden is like, oh, you got like a 99th percentile breakout score and like things just look so good analytically.
48:58And, you know, admittedly, I wish I was even more aggressive with them last year.
49:02Of course, just given where things are at right now.
49:05But that's the thing with me is that like, there's this backbone of him.
49:09This isn't like a random day three. This isn't like if Cyrus Allen comes through in 2026 with a two and a
49:15half yards per hour run rate, you know, this is a player that was really, really good as a prospect and was,
49:21I think, underdrafted because of maybe some off the field concerns.
49:25His final year at Missouri was, was not consistent at all.
49:28Right, right, right. And I like, look, I found it.
49:31I talked about this when he came out. Like I've found that peak season is much more important than final season.
49:37You know, Jackson Smith and Jigba is the same way.
49:40His peak season was much different than his final season.
49:43You know, Juju Smith-Schuster, I think, was another one.
49:45But Ted Rommel Millen was like that too. Right, right.
49:48And so like, I think that's an important, like if you see it in college at that kind of peak, it's at
49:54a younger age, it's very, very important. And so I do remember, and I said this on a show last night and
50:01chat was spamming me nasty things because it's kind of an insane pick.
50:04But every, you know, every like January, February, Harmon and I do a lot of texting about wide receiver prospects.
50:10Of course, you know, he's interested to see what the zap model might be saying.
50:15And I'm interested to see what he's charting. And I remember pulling up initial comps for Luther Burden.
50:20This is before draft capital was really inserted. And he was more of like a mid first round pick when, you know,
50:26like there weren't, you know, like he started dropping, you know, as the draft process went.
50:31And one of his comps, and it didn't end up as one of his comps because I partially didn't want to have
50:37to explain it because comps are loose and it's just more of like an archetype thing for me.
50:42And like, you know, like how guys matched up size wise, analytically and so on.
50:47One of his comps was Malik Neighbors. And it's not to say that like, I think that that's, but I do think
50:53that burden is in, if you were to really widen that archetype of player, because Neighbors and Jamar Chase are in that, that archetype.
51:00DJ Moore is like on the lower end of that arc of like the really good players, you know, like on the
51:06lower Brandon Iyuk kind of in that as well, you know, like peak Iyuk.
51:10I think Luther Burden can make a genuine, genuine impact.
51:13I'm not saying he's Malik Neighbors. That's why I hesitate even bringing this up.
51:17But I do think there is this ceiling that is just on like, just not talked about nearly enough.
51:23And like you said, there's this merging of like what he does well and what Ben Johnson does well, which is why
51:29I think we're hearing the quotes of Ben Johnson talking about Luther Burden like it's his son.
51:34Yeah. I mean, it's an ideal fit. It really was like if you had any concerns, which some of them were probably
51:40warranted of the tail off didn't, you know, because he was a lot of a slot player.
51:45I wouldn't call him a slot only player in college, but a lot of a slot player.
51:50And so, yeah, I mean, I understood the questions out there.
51:53I just loved him. Like just when people move differently, it just like gravitates because we watched so many of these players
52:00and they just like look the same. And I'm sure in that model, I kind of look the same and he did not look the same.
52:07You mean like this year's wide receiver class, just everyone's just completely mid.
52:11Yeah. Everyone's just Jeremy Gowen over and over and over.
52:14Well, look at this class. I'm just like, can someone just stand out?
52:17Like I love something, please. Like I like the big four in this class, you know, up to Concepcion.
52:23Like I think all four of them are really good.
52:26But then after that, I was just like, man, I just need a little bit more from, you know, Boston was fine and Cooper was fine.
52:33But a lot of those like mid day two, day three guys was just, it's just the same kind of thing over and over again, man.
52:41Now with all that said about burden, I also think Luther Burton is on the fast track to being the first or
52:47second or third best tied in the NFL. And especially when they go heavier personnel looks, I understand that a lot of
52:53it's going to be with two wide receivers still in the field.
52:57Right. But, and again, whatever underlying metrics you want to find, you can find them, especially in certain personnel groupings.
53:03Whenever they did play three tight ends and, you know, they go out and draft a pure blocker, basically, I think in Sam Rausch.
53:10Yeah. So maybe they'll do more of that this year.
53:13His, his yards per route run were just, it was 4.66 and then had 53% of the receiving market share during that time.
53:19Crazy. When, when they were in 13 personal looks.
53:22Crazy. Yeah. I mean, he, he is, and I know this is used frequently.
53:26I'm going to do it again here. He moves like a wide receiver in a tight ends body and he can be
53:32the focal point of a passing game. Now, do I think that anyone's going to be like the Amon Ross St.
53:38Brown to a Ben Johnson passing attack in this one?
53:41I don't necessarily think so, but, um, you know, being a true difference maker at tight end and tell me if your
53:47numbers say this differently can be easier than being like a true difference maker at, at wide receiver.
53:53If we're talking like round three, round four picks.
53:55Yeah. So, um, yeah, I I'm drafting a lot of Colson Loveland too.
53:59I'm not drafting them like on the same team though.
54:02Yeah, exactly. What about you? Right. Yeah, no, I, I agree.
54:05I like, if I were to order them in the exposure, I will get, it's like burden is the one.
54:11And then the other two are like, you know, two, a two, B, you know, and part of the, part of it
54:17with Loveland is just the position he's playing from a fan, from like a game theory perspective and wanting to take on
54:23that opportunity cost for a tight end. I'm certainly not fading.
54:27And I still think that a dunze goes a little bit later.
54:30Like the one thing that I do think that people should understand is that, you know, when I'm ranking, it sounds like you're doing the same thing.
54:38We're ranking them higher than market. Like you can rank all three of them higher than market and still understand that you're
54:44doing that because if one emerges, they could absolutely just dominate in fantasy football.
54:48Right? Like it's not, if you were to just go by projection, it wouldn't look as clean.
54:53It wouldn't look as good, you know, necessarily because you're evening things out a lot more, but there's a very real chance
55:00that someone or two of these guys end up just having like monster seasons.
55:04There's, I think two offenses this year and there's probably more, but two off the top of my head that I just
55:10want you all to have pieces of an A piece from.
55:13Right. And that's why I'm ranking them higher than, than consensus.
55:16One's the bears and the other one's the chargers.
55:19Like I just want you guys to exit. I knew you were going to say the chargers.
55:24Yeah. A player on one of those two teams.
55:26Yeah. Agreed. Agreed. Chat GPT can do more than answer questions.
55:30It can help you get real work done. Chat GPT work is built for bigger projects with multiple steps.
55:35You bring the goal along with the information it needs like briefs, notes, files, feedback, calendars, data sets, or project plans.
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56:54Cold snacks. Another team I like is Jacksonville. You know, there's a lot of fun pieces there.
56:59The guy, you know, you can maybe argue Parker Washington's getting more hype, but Bashaw Tootan's getting a ton of steam right now.
57:06So where are you at with the backfield there with Tootan and Searod?
57:09Yeah, I think Hayden and I are on different ends of this one.
57:13Like, stepping back, okay? If Chris Rodriguez is standing in the way of a player potentially having a breakout season, I want
57:19to take that gamble every single time. That's exactly how I ask.
57:23You know? Yep. Now, is it that simple? Because of the history that Chris Rodriguez and Liam Cohen have?
57:28Maybe not. Right. You know? And then I don't know if you saw this quote recently from Liam Cohen.
57:34It did not endear, like, a lot of optimism for me, necessarily.
57:37So he said, I've worked with Chris Rodriguez. What he brings to the table is efficiency.
57:42What we are hunting up is efficiency. First of all, this hunting up thing that James Gladstone, like, instilled.
57:47I mean, James Gladstone is a bit – he's on my radar.
57:51Oh, he's on my – after this draft? Oh, he's definitely on my radar after this draft.
57:56And I even mean, like, every single one of his phrases feels like it came from, you know, a self-help book.
58:02Yeah, yeah, yeah. And he, like, talks to his hands and all.
58:05Like, he faked it to the top. Yeah. Anyways, he might be really good.
58:09It's just his communication style is very, very scripted, it feels like.
58:13Continue on the quote. It's very difficult to create explosives in the running game.
58:17So what we are hunting up is efficiency. 4, 6, 8, 10.
58:204, 6, 8, 10. We have to evolve. I think that's aiming really low.
58:24To be honest. It sounds like – You're an explosive four-yard run.
58:28Yeah, you're Liam Cohen. You had Bucky Irving as the running back 11 when he started games for you during his rookie season.
58:34Yeah. You had Travis Achan last year as the running back 10 in points per game when he started.
58:40And then now you're like, well, we only want six-yard gains.
58:43Yeah. And over and over and over again. Yeah.
58:46And, however, when you look at the efficiency metrics, it can be success rate.
58:50It can be first down or touchdown rate of runs and all that type of stuff.
58:54Chris Rodriguez is, like, top five or top seven in every single one of those metrics.
58:59Not far behind that was Bachel too. Exactly. Right?
59:02Right. So it's not like we're talking about guys on the polar extremes here.
59:06Yes. It's – they're very close. And when you go back and watch, like, things just didn't work out for Bachelot in
59:12a lot of ways where he would just trip over his own feet, trip over an offensive lineman, maybe go the wrong way.
59:19There was that – wasn't that Thursday night game where he ran into a – just in the back of the defender or whatever and fell?
59:26And that was, like, the clip that everyone's like, oh, he has no vision.
59:30He's terrible. You know, they just ran with that.
59:33Yeah. Yeah. And there was one against the Cardinals where, like, he jukes them in the backfield and, like, gets into open
59:39space and should take on a safety at the third level and then just falls over himself.
59:44Right. So, you know, maybe that is just him.
59:47Maybe he's clumsy. Yeah. Or maybe he's, you know, a sick athlete who had cool underlying metrics coming out of Virginia Tech
59:53and just improves in his second season. Yeah. So, I am – and I know he's going much earlier, but I'm taking
59:59way more Basial Tootin than I am, Chris Rodriguez.
60:02Yeah. No, I'm – I mean, look, I started a meme last year with a hashtag all roads for all roads lead to Basial Tootin.
60:09So, I am most – I love them as a prospect.
60:12That was the thing. Like, back – like, pre-combine stuff.
60:15I do an episode every year on running back and wide receiver prospects who produce, like, studs in college.
60:21And this is pre-combine before he really shot up because of the 40, obviously.
60:25He was one of the guys that I called out that checked every box that I'm looking for from a production standpoint.
60:31And so, that got me on him. And then I was almost, like, upset that he ran such a good 40 because
60:37then, you know, it made the market jump in on him, you know, and so on.
60:42I also think that coaches are starting to realize more and more how important disguising what they're doing is.
60:47And that's what the Rams have leaned into so much with Kyron and Lycorum.
60:51And, you know, they didn't really do that last year in Jacksonville so much because, you know, there were times where, like,
60:58they manufactured some receiving stuff to Tootin for sure.
61:00But I don't see why we shouldn't or can't just project last year's backfield with this year's players in Jacksonville and kind
61:07of work off of that workload, like where Tootin's the Travis HN and Chris Rodriguez is the Tootin, right?
61:12Which kind of makes sense because if you look at, like, they would sprinkle in Tootin at the goal line last year, for instance.
61:19Which, by the way, I don't know why we're making the assumption that Chris Rodriguez is automatically the goal line guy when
61:25Tootin was great at the goal line last year, you know?
61:29Yeah, he was subbed in in some third and fourth down stuff when A-Chan wasn't getting there.
61:34Right, exactly. And so I kind of see it as, like, why can't Tootin just be that Travis HN role and potentially be even better in it?
61:41Because I think he's more explosive than A-Chan is at this point.
61:45Like, Travis HN's... I guess I'm officially going with A-Chan.
61:48I talked about this on the podcast last week.
61:50I guess I'm officially rolling with it. I know.
61:53I say both in a single episode. Yeah, I do too.
61:56But I'm rolling with it. Again, I'm on the fence Zacharias in here.
62:00Look, I'm feeling very bold right now to go with it.
62:03So I'm going to run with it. But Travis HN's numbers last year and his actual performance wasn't, like, stellar.
62:09It wasn't like he was out of control great.
62:11And I know that, you know, Tootin didn't have as many explosive runs last season.
62:16And, you know, at one point, you know, you can look at trends.
62:19It's not a good trend whenever you don't have those explosive runs.
62:23He had one in the, you know, 20-yard run in the playoffs.
62:26But to me, I'm just trying to be like, I don't want to be so strict from a numbers perspective.
62:32And I need to just be logical and say he was unbelievably explosive in college.
62:36Like, we know that he's explosive, you know? Two things on that.
62:40One, I think Zane made the comparison that... Is this similar to the Cincinnati backfield when it was Chase Brown and Zach Moss?
62:47Yeah. And, like, Basio Tootin is a Chase Brown that wasn't a first-round pick.
62:51And then Zach Moss is the veteran that comes in and you think is going to, like, own the work.
62:56And I know that was an injury, but he ended up not.
63:00And then Chase Brown just got, you know, kind of auditioned for every single role.
63:04Until now, he's one of the highest snap rate players in the league.
63:08You know? And, I mean, I'm drafting so much Chase Brown this year when I can because I think he has, like,
63:14the best running back environment of any player out there.
63:17Yeah. Better offensive line there, too, this year. Definitely.
63:20And then the second part is, I mean, I would be shocked if we're out there in the first series of the
63:26NFL season and that's not like a Basial Tootin drive or Basial Tootin doesn't get the first crack at it.
63:32And so I am just banking on Basial Tootin not falling flat in his face for the first two or three games,
63:38getting the first opportunity and make the most of it.
63:41It's that simple. Yeah. Yeah. I'm with you. I think there's a very real chance that he's a league-winning player in fantasy.
63:47But, like, it could very easily – this is the environment where that can happen, you know?
63:52Yeah. We just did a show on our 11 players that, like, we would term league winners that upside wins championships, and he was one that I nominated.
64:00Yeah. So we're on the same page there. I'm glad that you're on the train, baby.
64:05Yeah, man. We need as many as we can get.
64:08All right. I know that we've gone for about an hour, but I do want to ask you a couple questions before I let you go.
64:15Who are a couple guys that you're targeting that you think are huge values and then two guys that you're avoiding who
64:22you think are big avoids right now? I'm really drafting Christian Watson, and he was the player that I had in mind
64:28when I said I love all of, like, the third and fourth round wide receivers, and so I'll draft, like, each of
64:34them in different spots as often as I can.
64:37Yeah. But kind of when we get to, you know, Christian Watson's now going in round five in best ball, but like
64:43on Yahoo, Christian Watson is a round six player.
64:46To me, he just stands out of that group.
64:49Yeah. And I think a lot of people still have early career Christian Watson in mind that he lived in this high
64:55variance world that he ran super hot during his rookie year with Aaron Rogers, and it was pure go balls, vertical routes when they hit.
65:02That was great. I mean, this time last year, we didn't even know when Christian Watson was going to play.
65:08Yeah. I want to put that on the record.
65:10And then also, when he got back on the field last year, his game totally evolved.
65:15Totally agree. Third and six, he was the go-to receiver.
65:18Second and nine. And you can see how his game evolved if you just look at the routes that he ran.
65:24I believe last year he had more out route catches than he ever had targets in his other years combined.
65:30Like his out route rate went from 7% in his career up to 35% last year.
65:34So it goes to what we just talked about the, the gimme stuff, right?
65:38Yeah. And now he's the route runner on this team to attack like every blade of grass.
65:43And the frustrations hopefully are no longer here with the Packers, just cycling all these guys in and out.
65:49And then I love what Jordan Love just put out there of Matthew Golden is the X.
65:54We know Jane Reed is mostly the slot and Christian Watson, despite being bigger than both, is going to be the Z.
66:00Yeah. And that just gives us motion. It gives us into stacks.
66:04It gives us free space that he's going to maximize even more.
66:07So obviously the concern is always with Christian Watson.
66:10He's not going to play a full season. But to me, that's a major reason why we can get him in the sixth round.
66:16Right. And we're aiming for upside. He was another one of these players for me that I think can be a league winner of the season.
66:24Love the call. He's a target in the draft guide this year.
66:27If you look at last year, too, not only was he awesome in fantasy and really efficient on a per-route run basis,
66:34his route share was lower than what we typically see from him.
66:37And now it's like 71% when it's typically the last time we saw him healthy was closer to like 78% to 80%.
66:44And now you don't have Romeo Dobson, Dontavian Wicks, like you said.
66:47And so there's not going to be that rotation that's just frustrated the crap out of us over the last handful of years.
66:54So I'm with you. Give me another one. I mean, can I do early picks?
66:58You can do whatever you want. Whoever you think is great value.
67:01This has changed, I think, on every platform in the last week.
67:05And maybe I'll take a little bit of credit for it.
67:08No, best ball is still this way. Like, why is Ashton Gentry going ahead of Saquon Barkley?
67:13Yeah, you're a big Saquon guy, right? Yeah, I mean, we just saw him two years ago be the number one player in fantasy football.
67:20Yeah. And I know so much of the conversation around the Eagles right now is, well, what is Sean Manning going to
67:27pluck out of Jalen Hurts as a passer? How does Devontae Smith step into the shoes of A.J.
67:32Brown? What does Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers bring?
67:34To me, none of it matters unless they get the rushing attack back to where it was.
67:39Yeah. And it's not like we're talking going from bad to good.
67:43Just last year was a bit too average, right?
67:45Like the yards before contact, which can be a metric that we can debate.
67:49I firmly believe that getting back to a successful rushing attack and explosive rushing attack is what then changes the math for the passing game to get easier.
67:57And so last season with a very injured offensive line, I understand why that wasn't the case.
68:02And then just from watching, I don't think that Saquon has like lost a step or we've gotten to the cliff and all that type of stuff.
68:10So if the environment, and I understand Jeff Stoutland is no longer there as the offensive line coach and Hall of Famer
68:16at that, I think it is critical for this team to get back to Saquon Barkley.
68:21I'm not saying he's going to get like the 85% work that he got when he was the number one scoring player
68:27because I think Tank Bigsby actually is quite good and quite fun and I'm drafting a lot of tank too.
68:33But I just think people are kind of hoping that Ashton Gentry has a season like Saquon Barkley when we can just draft Saquon Barkley a bit later.
68:41I'd said in my regression episode this week, Barkley also won for 14 in goal line rushes last year.
68:47Yes, exactly. Like just ridiculous. I mean, no, obviously he's not seeing the super easy stuff because Jalen Hurts gets the tush push, but still.
68:54But are we doing the tush push as much?
68:57Last year they didn't. It was not as successful and that's why Dallas Goddard got so many touchdowns because they flicked it.
69:03And now what if those are just Saquon Barkley runs?
69:06That's a good point. Very good point. All right, real quick.
69:09Two players that you're not into. I also could have done Ken Walker on that last one too.
69:14I like that tier of guys in general. It's hard not to, but yeah, Ken Walker I also think is an incredibly
69:21good click right now, especially season long platforms. I think on Yahoo right now, isn't he like 20th overall or something like that?
69:27He goes a lot, like a decent bit later than some of the other, you know, just given where we're drafting in
69:34the second round, like then some of those other running backs.
69:37Totally. I think I have Ken Walker as my 13th overall player.
69:40Yeah. I think he's one. He ends up to ninth overall with Ken Walker the third.
69:45Ooh. Okay. So yeah, he's very bullish. I like it though.
69:48I love the fit with Walker. I mentioned Xavier worthy earlier and like, look, we're talking, you know, further down the board
69:54with him, but I mean, some of these numbers with Xavier worthy are actually laughable in that like, this is somewhat a
70:01big number, but he's only cleared 80 receiving yards three times in 34 career games.
70:05But then our buddy Nick Ercolano posted that in games where Rashid Rice has played Xavier worthy has averaged 2.7 catches per game.
70:12Wow. That's pretty crazy. And then like, I was somewhat optimistic of Xavier worthy coming into the league, but then watching him
70:18since I understand like, you know, last year after the first time he touched the football, his shoulder exploded and we didn't,
70:24we don't know what we got with him. I'm just trying to figure out like, what is he in the league now?
70:31You know, and especially now tied to a quarterback who's been one of the worst downfield passers in the NFL.
70:36I also think Xavier worthy is the latest example of just because you're fast, it doesn't make you a great downfield player
70:43because, you know, average to good corners that might be slower, but they're physical, make him play at their speed.
70:48And then he can't really separate and go up and get it and all that type of stuff.
70:54So yeah, I'm just not drafting much Xavier worthy.
70:56And I know that's like easy to say for 11th round pick, but the other one, can I just say like all
71:03Cardinals and I don't want to do like a sweeping thing here.
71:06And this is like the most basic analysis I'm ever going to give, but it just feels weird to have four Arizona
71:12Cardinals draft in the top 95 overall in your home leagues for a team that is projected for the fewest amount of points in the NFL this season.
71:21Yeah. That has just, just it's Jacoby percent slash Carson Beck.
71:24Like we, you know, like it's crazy. It's crazy.
71:26I would actually be more optimistic that they could hit that mark.
71:30If I knew Jacoby percent was going to get 17 games.
71:33Exactly. But I am certain we're not going to get 17 games of Jacoby percent.
71:37We're going to get some of Carson Beck and Gardner Minshew and all that territory.
71:42So like I, I'm like not drafting Trey McBride where he's going.
71:45I can't do it. Yeah. Jeremiah love. Um, I wish I could sprinkle it in.
71:49It's even kind of rich to me where like, we're talking about like the hot hand comments.
71:54I don't mind because he should be the hot hand because he's that much better.
71:59And like going back to, you know, Brees Hall's rookie season and Mike LaFleur, I think he had like nine, 12 and 13 touches his opening three games.
72:07And then was like the running back nine the rest of the season because he earned it.
72:12But at the same time, I'm just kind of nervous of the environment.
72:15And then, yeah, the Marvin Michael Wilson stuff. I'm just kind of not into.
72:19I am lower than the market on all three.
72:22When I look at my rankings versus three as in the pass catchers, when I look at my rankings versus what is going on consensus.
72:29And then there's certain platforms where like love go like, like ESPN.
72:33He's like a really, really high pick like RB like six or something.
72:36It's crazy. Oh, really? It's like he's just very, very high.
72:40And I can't get behind that at all. I think that he belongs in like the Brees range from a yes, from like a rankings perspective.
72:47The Marv's like, look, I think that Michael Wilson is good.
72:50But I also have a lot of worry with what happened even with Berset when Marvin Harrison Jr.
72:55was running a normal complement of routes and snaps and stuff.
72:59And then obviously, I still think Marv is going to be on the field most and play that X role for them.
73:05And I still think that like there's some upside there.
73:08And I've drafted both a little bit more Marv than Michael Wilson in best ball.
73:12But I'm a little bit underweight still. And the Trey McBride thing that I go back to, I wrote about this in the draft guide this year.
73:20He ran like 120 more routes than Travis Kelsey was second last year.
73:24And even if you just go and you regress that to and you just use lower that to where Travis Kelsey was
73:30at that number of routes that he ran. So he would still rank first in the NFL, tied for first in the NFL and routes run.
73:38And if you maintained his fantasy points per route run, Trey McBride's, he would have scored 3.2 fewer fantasy points per game.
73:44Which, sure, he'd still be good. He'd still be over that 15 mark.
73:48But it's not nearly as dominant as he was last year.
73:51And that's a fantasy points per route run number where those fantasy points were on an insane number of end zone targets
73:57that I don't think we can just assume is going to be there year over year.
74:02So I'm with you. I've had a really, really hard time with McBride.
74:06You know, I'm looking at rankings right now. And, you know, to me, he's like more mid to late, like late third.
74:12Oftentimes for me, like I'm not even that that far.
74:15But I'm a little bit like, you know, I just how I look at tight ends in general.
74:20I don't want to take on that opportunity cost as often in season long than what the market generally does, except for Brock Bowers this year.
74:27I'm fine with with just. Yeah. If you look over the last like seven days, he and Brock Bowers actually on Yahoo are only like three picks apart.
74:36It's crazy to me. Crazy to me. Insane. Isn't like the 120 routes in that like three games, basically more than the next closest tight.
74:43Like that is nuts. I know. He played three more games then.
74:46And for the record, the only guy who ran more routes at wide receiver than Michael Wilson last year was Jamar Chase.
74:53And it was by one route. And if you look at guys who run 600 or more routes year over year, there's
74:59almost always a decline in routes run because there's natural regression of these teams not throwing as much.
75:04Yeah. Now I can hear a lot of people say, well, they're going to be so bad that it's just going to be garbage time all the time.
75:12That is one of those like fantasy phrases that gets thrown at me where I want to push back on because garbage
75:18time means you sucked for three quarters or three and a half quarters and you didn't score enough points.
75:24So then you have the confidence in the final six minutes, 10 minutes to then say to yourself, oh yeah, now we
75:30flip the switch on and we're now we're going to score like have a bunch of yards and score a bunch of points.
75:37Yeah. Like sometimes it worked and it did for them last year with Jacoby and Petsing and all this type of stuff.
75:43But now it's a new coach. It's potentially new quarterbacks involved too.
75:47And I don't think you can just like bank on flipping that switch every single time.
75:51For the record, like I like I've always said, it takes a garbage performance to create garbage time, you know?
75:57And so, so like it's got out fantasy. Do she used to talk about this all the time?
76:02Yeah. Right. Right. But the other thing, like I've comped Michael Wilson a couple months ago to last year's Jerry Judy, where
76:09it's a very, very similar took an injury to Cedric Tillman to open things up a little bit more.
76:14You get a changing quarterback to Jameis where that opened things up from a volume perspective and just kind of throwing it
76:20down the field and giving me a high target share.
76:23And then we saw what happened last year with the Browns and with Judy.
76:27It's just hard to repeat that kind of situational production, you know?
76:31And I have the same concerns with Arizona. Could it bite us?
76:34Sure. Because they have a tough schedule this year.
76:37It's one of the toughest in the league. And so they could see those negative scripts and they could end up being really pass heavy still.
76:44But I question what this will look like with like not only three really good pass catchers now, but now you have
76:51a legit pass catching threat out of the backfield and Jeremiah loves.
76:54So it could, you know, the math is just not mathing as much with, with Arizona.
76:59So I like the call out. All right. Last question.
77:02Bold take this of this, of this fantasy season.
77:04Give us some fire before I let you go.
77:07Okay. The chargers are top three in overall points this year.
77:10Okay. Okay. Is that not fire enough for you?
77:13I mean, it's, it's, you know, a little, um, I mean, okay, I'll give you another one and this might be even less.
77:19You got to give me the gauge here, I guess.
77:22Um, Brock Bowers is the player you need. He is the player.
77:26Okay. Okay. There's a lot of players in the, in the leagues.
77:29That's, that's fire. That's that's hot. Yeah. Yeah. On some platforms there are 18 rounds you have to make picks on.
77:35So yeah. Him being one of the player that you need.
77:38Yeah. I think that's the player. Then yes, that's bold.
77:41We had Ryan Paganetti on the show. I'm sure everyone's seen his tweets lately.
77:45He, you know, worked for the Eagles and then the Jaguars in this past year worked for Pete Carroll and the Raiders.
77:52And he said like their organizational goal was to have Brock Bowers break the NFL record in, in targets and catches.
77:58It kind of felt like that was going to work through the first three quarters of the season.
78:03And then obviously injury struck. I think Brock Bowers might be the player other than lad McConkey, which was going to be
78:09my point here with the chargers that is going to see the biggest benefit with the trend of heavier personnel looks.
78:15Okay. Because in those situations, the best pass catchers then get funneled the opportunities.
78:19And so like Ryan Heath has written about this where 51% of Jackson Smith and Jigba's production last year came on the
78:2638% of the snaps where there were two or fewer wide receivers on the field last year.
78:31And, you know, Clint Kubiak coming from that exact system is bringing it now to the Raiders.
78:35And then it's not just two tight end looks that they can do with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer.
78:41It's also, he loves to use a fullback and they just didn't do it as much last year with Oots being hurt.
78:47Yeah. And so they brought in Connor Hayward to do that from, from the Pittsburgh Steelers.
78:52Yeah. And so while the positional titles might be different, I think you can do very, very similar things with Brock Bowers and, and JSN.
78:59And I mean, this is obvious one of those situations where he's going to be the funnel player compared to like all
79:05the other pass catchers they have on that team.
79:08Yeah. That's great analysis. And I couldn't agree more.
79:11He's a, to me, like you said, the gap between him and McBride just does not make much sense on most of these platforms.
79:18I think that, especially in shallow leagues, if you're like an eight or 10 team league where you can get away with
79:24taking those onesies early because the opportunity cost isn't as high, just smash Brock Bowers.
79:28Like he's the onesie to take early, you know, in your draft.
79:32So great call. Josh, this was fantastic. I always love talking ball with you.
79:36It's good to do it over the summer. I feel like we do a lot of prospect stuff usually together.
79:42So it was nice to, to change that up a little bit.
79:45I'll talk to you again in two and a half years, I guess.
79:49Yeah, exactly. Exactly. We'll never know where they can find you and what you've been working on.
79:54Yeah. We're not Yahoo. Just, you can search Josh and Hayden Yahoo fantasy football on YouTube.
79:58And right now we're doing four videos a week.
80:01And then that'll be even more pretty soon. So this is like our favorite time of the year when these preseason games
80:07happen because we watch every single snap. Well, not every single snap.
80:11I'll say every single game and then give our analysis and go through all the snap counts and change our rankings and
80:17overreact and underreact and all that type of stuff.
80:20So always, always a good time to join you, buddy.
80:23Yeah. Yeah. Great chopping it up. Make sure you guys are checking out late round.com.
80:27Get the draft guide. It is on sale right now.
80:30It'll hit your inbox. Updates happen every Friday. So that's rankings, updates, market score updates, you know, players to target players to avoid all of that.
80:37Otherwise, everyone enjoy your weekend. And as always, thanks for tuning in.
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