Yahoo Sports NFL on A.J. Brown

ArticleA.J. Brown, Jalen Coker headline Week 8's Regression Files
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Brown has accounted for 46 percent of New England's air yards over the past two games (and 23.5 percent of the team's targets). A mere 11 receivers have a higher expected fantasy points per game than AJB since Week 6. His actual points per game? Forty-second among wideouts.
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STACKED’s take

Positive signalProjection

A.J. Brown's elite air-yard share signals positive regression despite recent cold stretch.

Brown's prayer yards rate of 74 percent (excluding Week 1 ankle injury) indicates significant negative variance; he has accounted for 46 percent of New England's air yards over the past two games and 23.5 percent of team targets. Despite running cold recently, only 11 receivers have higher expected fantasy points per game than Brown since Week 6, yet he ranks 42nd in actual points per game among wideouts. The Patriots rank seventh in pass rate over expected since Week 4, positioning Brown to produce actual yards and touchdowns if regression corrects his recent underperformance ahead of Week 8 against Miami's regularly-wrecked secondary.

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