From the video
What do you think about AJ Brown, though? He just really hasn't looked right. We're projecting him wide receiver 12... by fantasy points, we're getting 6.8. That's like wide receiver 73... the best film guy in the game said AJ Brown looked washed a year and a half ago and now he's coming back from an injury and he looked awful these last two weeks.
Mentioned at 42:44 – 43:54Captured by STACKED 10 hr after posting
STACKED’s take
Positive signalProjection
WR12 projection vs. WR73 pace; looked awful last two weeks returning from injury
AJ Brown is projected as WR12 despite volume concerns and recent poor performance. While he had a 53% first read target share in his first game back and 35% last week (top-10 in XFP per game extrapolated), he's only averaging 6.8 fantasy points (WR73 pace). The source's projection argument is that this regresses to the mean, but counters include: Miami is top-5 in fantasy points per game allowed to outside wide receivers, and film analysis suggests he 'looked awful these last two weeks' coming back from injury. The source notes the best film the source said AJ Brown looked washed a year and a half ago, and he's now returning from injury with poor recent tape.
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