Fantasy Points

Strong Week 1 start recommendation with bullish outlook for this week only; the source expects declining production as season progresses due to age. Denver presents favorable tight end funnel matchup because their cornerbacks are elite, forcing more targets to the tight end position. Rashee Rice potentially not fully up to speed yet adds to Kelce's Week 1 advantage.

Listed as a start at tight end with obvious reasons following Brock Bowers' injury; ranked as tight end 4-5 in Week 1 projections. The source would start him over all tight ends except McBride, LaPorta, Loveland, and Warren. Historical college production exceptional: only two tight ends in Power Five history have multiple 800+ receiving yard seasons (Mayer and Brock Bowers). In 2024 games without Bowers, Mayer posted 78% route share and 2.25 yards per route run.

Patriots beat reporter projects Douglas as wide receiver 2 on the offense and expects him to receive significant target volume, particularly with A.J. Brown absent. Reporter confirmed Douglas outperformed Romeo Dobbs based on tape review despite Dobbs' higher draft capital.

DJ Moore is listed as a sit for Week 1. The source notes he is coming off an injury and faces the Houston Texans defense featuring Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and elite pass rusher Will Anderson. The source emphasizes the defensive talent he must face makes this 'clearly a sit,' stating 'Coming off an injury plus he's facing the Houston Texans. Like do it Does it need to get any deeper than that? Like this guy has to go against Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and probably the best pass rusher in football.'

The source projects Marvin Harrison Jr. at 9.3 points and ranks him as a sit, with conviction that he should be ranked even lower than Chris Wecht's wide receiver 35 ranking—behind Josh Downs. The source expresses strong skepticism: 'I don't think he's good. I don't like him. I think Michael Wilson might probably will outscore him.' The source characterized Harrison off-season as a 'nepotism draft pick,' questioning whether he would receive draft attention if his name were not Harrison. Additional context includes an 18.5-point implied total for the Chargers game.

The source recommends sitting Alec Pierce in Week 1 due to health concerns and schematic mismatch. Pierce is not fully 100% healthy, and even if he receives an expanded role beyond deep threat, the source does not expect it to materialize in Week 1. Additionally, Baltimore's Jesse Minter defense sits in two-high coverage and pressures the quarterback, which does not suit Pierce's deep-threat game. The source states 'I just don't think he's fully healthy... I don't think it happens week one. So I'm out on Alec Pierce.'

Chargers pass-catcher ranked as fringe WR2 start against the worst secondary in football by a landslide; the source ranks Johnston as a fringe WR2 against a Saints defense with the worst cornerback room and second-worst safety room in the NFL. Johnston ranks 19th in win rate for 2025 and top 20 over the last two seasons; he's 25th in separation win rate among 103 wide receivers at 15.1%, positioned between DeMarcus Robinson and Jaylen McMillan. While his separation metrics appear modest, the source contextualizes this through ASS (Separation Score), noting that Johnston's role doesn't require plus-two and plus-three type wins; when healthy, his ASS is pretty good. Mike McDaniel has compared Johnston to Andre Johnson and Julio Jones, suggesting elite upside despite the statistical positioning. Johnston had one of the best second-half rookie seasons ever by yards per game, better than Odell Beckham Jr., Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Ja'Marr Chase; the source attributes last year's poor performance to an August injury that Greg Rosenthal reported the team knew about, suggesting Johnston may play through injuries better than others and could bounce back.

Chargers pass-catcher faces the worst secondary in football by a landslide; the source ranks McConkey as a low-end WR1 against a Saints defense with the worst cornerback room and second-worst safety room in the NFL. McConkey is described as a route-running god who gets open at will and was elite on a per-route basis in college. He ranks sixth in separation win rate as a rookie, demonstrating elite separation ability that Quentin Johnston does not possess in his range of outcomes. The source notes McConkey's talent advantage is supported by Chargers insiders, beat writers, and reporters, as well as college and healthy-game performance. Despite the possibility of an Amari Cooper/Hampton-focused game script, this is a really winnable matchup.

Start Malik Nabers in Week 1 despite returning from injury; ranked WR15. His first game back was considered in jeopardy or a long shot just months ago. The matchup against Dallas is favorable—the Cowboys were really bad against quarterbacks and wide receivers last year. The source anticipates a slow start given the injury return but recommends starting him Week 1.

Start Luther Burden in Week 1 against Carolina despite pessimism on Caleb Williams and the Bears overall. Burden was excellent against cover three last year with a team-high 3.76 yards per route run (only Puka Nacua higher among teammates); cover three accounted for over a third of his targets. Carolina plays cover three at the league's second-highest rate over the last two years, creating a favorable matchup. However, the source cautions that Carolina's cover three is atypical—featuring disguised looks and sim pressures that differ from straightforward cover three schemes, creating additional complexity.

Start Josh Downs as a high-end WR4/fringe WR3 in Week 1 against Baltimore, overriding Chris Wecht's WR48 ranking. Downs will finally get a full-time workload; he has a higher target per route run against two-high coverage than all but Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown; the Chargers defense allows the third-most yards on throws zero to nine yards; and Baltimore's Jesse Minter defense loves two-high coverage, creating an ideal schematic matchup. Additional workload expected due to Alec Pierce not being fully healthy.

Start Jameson Williams in Week 1 against New Orleans. Williams significantly benefits from single-high coverage; his target per route run jumps from WR70 to WR26 when defenses shift from two-high to single-high coverage. The Saints are expected to play single-high, and the Lions' tendency to keep throwing in blowouts (they don't take their foot off the gas) adds additional upside for Williams in this high over/under game (50.5).

Sit in Week 1. the source is significantly lower on Lloyd than industry consensus. Expected to get scripted out of the game and not receive passing-down work. Tough matchup against Vikings' aggressive Brian Flores-led defense that constantly mugs the A gaps; if Packers' interior offensive line holds up, Lloyd could exploit the aggressive scheme for explosive plays, but if beaten up by the double mug A gap look, expect a quiet day.

Sit Ashton Jeanty in Week 1. Added to the sit list with concerns about early-season usage and performance, similar to other running backs with limited game action or unfavorable matchups.

Sit Jonathan Brooks in Week 1. He has not played regular season football in a very long time and historically does not produce much in September, taking time to get up to speed and earn coaches' trust. He was drafted for second-half season upside, so sit him in Week 1 and start someone else almost certainly.

Start David Montgomery in Week 1 against Buffalo despite the Bills historically being one of the best defenses against the run. New Bills defensive coordinator Jim Leonard is shifting to an aggressive odd-front scheme with emphasis on stopping the run via base packages and gap assignments, which may not immediately translate to elite run defense. Montgomery was drafted as a bench player for second-half upside, making him a strong start in Week 1.

Start Breece Hall in Week 1 against Tennessee. The source loves the matchup and opportunity: Tennessee traded away their best run stopper, Tevondre Sweat. Robert Saleh's defensive scheme prioritizes an attacking style with less gap sound, making them weaker against the run; Saleh defenses typically struggle in run-pass transitions and got "absolutely bodied" by Philadelphia and Detroit in the past. The Jets are only 1.5-point underdogs (vs. typical 6-7 point dogs), improving game script for Hall to stay involved in the run game. Hall is also a weapon in the pass game.

Start in Week 1 against Detroit despite being faded all offseason. Alvin Kamara is expected to play but will be more limited than usual, creating more work for Etienne. Saints-Lions game has a 50-point over/under with Saints at 21.25 implied point total (25% higher than their average last year). Offense runs a Kellen Moore scheme that leads the league in pace of play; as seven-point underdogs, Saints will be forced to speed up pace and lean pass-heavy, generating high target volume for Etienne.

Ranked above Patrick Mahomes for Week 1 start despite QB20 projection (source surprised at low projection). Favorable matchup vs. Kansas City secondary that was completely rebuilt in offseason; Mansour Delane unlikely to be Trent McDuffie-level day one. Kansas City also had pass rush issues last year with no expected improvement. Source likes Bo Nix in this matchup and expects him to be "relatively fine" in this game.

Elevated to mid-range QB1 for Week 1; playing at home indoors in a 50-point over/under game vs Saints. Over the last four years, Goff averages 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus 15.4 on the road—a differential equivalent to the gap between QB3 and QB24 performance. Goff crushes cover-four, which the Saints run at a top-10 rate, providing a favorable matchup.

Sit recommendation for Week 1. Coming off devastating injury plus surgery, likely limited rushing volume. Facing tough Denver defense, which compounds concerns. Ranked below Bo Nix for Week 1 start.

Sneaky bad matchup vs. Carolina in Week 1. Carolina's defense was top-five toughest by schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed last year. Carolina's defensive coordinator was far and away best in league at defending under-center play action; Bears offensive coordinator Ben Johnson deploys under-center play action at league's highest rate. Source recommends lowering expectations and placed Williams on sit list.

Justin Jefferson is used as a statistical comparison for Malik Nabers, with the source citing 43 yards and 8.3 fantasy points per game.

CeeDee Lamb is used as a statistical comparison for Malik Nabers, with the source noting Lamb averages 15.6 fantasy points per game.

Ja'Marr Chase is used as a statistical comparison for Malik Nabers, with the source noting Chase averages 83 yards and 18 fantasy points per game.

The source uses Puka Nacua as the primary statistical benchmark for Malik Nabers' elite production, noting that almost no one else compares to Nabers' recent averages of 22 fantasy points and 100+ yards per game.

Cam Akers is currently attempting to return to full health, which the source notes may contribute to a slow start to the season.

Brock Bowers is identified as a specific 'trade-for-later' candidate, suggesting he is a player to target for future production rather than immediate impact.

Tucker Kraft is considered an 'Exodia' (a player to avoid or trade away) on ESPN platforms; the source notes he is coming off a major injury.

George Kittle is labeled an 'Exodia' (a player to avoid or trade away) due to his age and injury-prone status; the source specifically notes he is coming off a major injury.

The source identifies Jeremiah Love as a high-risk bust candidate, noting he is coming off an injury, faces competition from Tyler Allgeier, and is a rookie who may struggle with the playbook and NFL speed. There is a real chance he could be viewed as a poor draft pick by week six.

The source is less optimistic about Quinshon Judkins, noting he is returning from a significant injury and may experience a slow start with efficiency struggles early in the season.

The source is very high on Cam Skattebo, advising managers not to panic if he starts with a 45% snap share due to injury recovery. The source expects him to eventually secure a bell-cow workload with significant pass-game involvement and recommends buying if the limited snap share persists for two or three weeks.

The source expects a slow start for Brian Thomas Jr. due to a grueling early-season schedule featuring elite cornerbacks like Denzel Ward, Patrick Surtain II, and Christian Gonzalez, with some analysts suggesting he could become a waiver-wire drop. However, the source argues against projecting him to face shadow coverage every game, as he is primarily utilized as an X receiver while the offense's movement and mismatch creation are centered around the slot.

Drake May faces a tough early-season strength of schedule and has shown matchup sensitivity in the past, though he is expected to have a strong performance against a depleted Seattle secondary. Drake May is projected to have a strong Week 1 performance against Seattle because the Seahawks' secondary is severely depleted, missing key players like Kobe Bryant and Riq Woolen, with other defensive backs dealing with injuries.

Malik Nabers is a high-upside draft target whose ADP fell to a ridiculous level, making him an easy click. While he is recovering from an ACL injury and may start the season limited—with some reports suggesting he may not be 100% at any point this year—he becomes a prime mid-season buy-low candidate if he gets off to a slow start.

Parker Washington is a high-upside target in Liam Cohen's offense, which is designed to move the slot receiver around to avoid premier perimeter cornerbacks. He is difficult to shadow because he moves frequently between the slot and the perimeter, making it impossible for defenses to consistently match him with a specific cornerback. Expect a fast start from him.

Josh Allen is used as a benchmark for elite fantasy quarterback performance, with the source noting that Jackson Dart's per-start average would have exceeded Allen's if not for a specific low-volume game.

Drake Maye is a trade-for target for later in the season, as he faces one of the toughest early-season schedules for a quarterback. He is matchup-sensitive, and a potential slow start against teams like the Seahawks, Steelers, and Bills should be viewed as a buying opportunity. He is projected to have a strong Week 1 performance against a depleted Seattle secondary missing key players like Kobe Bryant and Riq Woolen. Long-term, he could potentially smash expectations and perform as a top-three quarterback throughout the season.

Trevor Lawrence is a prime trade-for target, especially if he struggles early due to a difficult strength of schedule. He was the overall QB1 over the final 14, 7, and 4 weeks of last season, averaging 30.7 fantasy points per game in his final four weeks. His late-season surge was bolstered by increased rushing assertiveness, averaging 33.5 rushing yards per game from Week 11 onward; only Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen have more rushing touchdowns than him over the last four years.