0:00I think I'm ready. You ready?
0:01>> Yeah.
0:03>> Uh, okay. Never mind.
0:07>> Yeah. What was that? What were you gonna say, Trey? I actually I I forgot until the second you open that.
0:15>> Was your light?
0:16>> Yeah, my light was off.
0:19Let me take a little swig here.
0:24>> That vodka.
0:26>> Vodka.
0:29Drink vodka out of the plastic water bottle.
0:32>> Vodka >> at 7 in the morning. That's crazy.
0:38>> Is it seven for you?
0:39>> It feels like seven. How about that?
0:42>> Is this the earliest you've woken up this week? What are you drinking?
0:52>> Hey, what are you drinking right now? Is that an energy drink?
0:54>> I'm drinking vodka.
0:58>> [music] >> Are you serious?
1:04What?
1:06That's awesome.
1:08So sick.
1:13Week seven, start sit part two on Fantasy Football Daily here on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. Guys, it's free week.
1:24Data Suite 2.0 is free. this entire week. Scott, this is the best data product on the consumer market. It is the best
1:34consumerf facing product there is and it is both robust and affordable.
1:39>> Something we didn't think was possible, but when we set out to build it, that was the goal. And I think we achieved
1:44both goals. So, anyways, you have anything you want to say about free week?
1:50>> Uh, enjoy it while it lasts like another day or two.
1:55Are [snorts] we running any cool promotionals out of free week? Like any discounts? We still running the DS2 code? Anything?
2:03>> Uh, yeah. DS2 code, promo code exodia for what? 10% off.
2:09>> Nice.
2:10There we go. Data suite 2.0. All right, let's jump into start sit. If you're unfamiliar with the way we do this,
2:18>> it's 15% off.
2:19>> Oh, wow.
2:20>> PS2. Wow. Crazy.
2:22>> Wow. It was already too cheap and then you made it 15% cheaper. I don't understand how that works, but >> I know
2:28>> whatever. Um, if you're if you're unfamiliar with how we do our start sit, we break it into two parts. Yesterday's
2:34show contains the first seven games of the slate. Today's show will contain the next seven games, the final seven. So, today we're starting with Miami and the
2:43New York Jets. Miami taking this game on the road. The Jets are fivepoint favorites at home with an overunder of just 39. That's kind of a crazy spread
2:53for an overunder under under 40, but um anyways, we'll take it. The Dolphin side of this, we have Malik Willis as a sit,
3:01QB 25, Ali Gordon is on the fence, Malik Washington as a start, everybody else is a sit or injury watch. Um what do you
3:10have? I don't even like it's the Dolphins. What are we talking about here?
3:14>> Yeah, man. Uh yeah, so the weird thing about Malik Washington is he's like what top 10 in target share. Uh he's had
3:23somewhere between 43 and 67 yards in every single game a low of just a 22% target share, high of 30%. Yeah. And uh
3:33so like it's actually like pretty good utilization, although it hasn't been all that productive. And the Jets are a slot funnel. they
3:43they uh are giving up the six fewest fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers, six fewest to tight ends, but
3:52they're bottom 12 against the slot. So, that's just to justify this this projection, which might seem a little high to some of you at wide receiver 25.
4:01Uh I don't know that I'd have him that high, but he's he's certainly he's certainly playable. He to me he might be
4:08someone where I I might want to just see it first like have a like [snorts] score a touchdown right or like clear 60
4:14yards. Um so that's kind of my thoughts on it.
4:20>> Yeah. I mean I was looking through our good friend Joe Dolan posted like a trivia question like who's leading the
4:27the league in design targets and it was KCC but I I for sure thought when he posted that it was going to be Malik
4:33Washington and it wasn't.
4:35Malik kind of is their their design target guy or designed touch guy. He gets a lot of carries as well. Um they
4:41put him in the back field. They'll move him around. So I don't I think wide receiver 25 does feel that like there's
4:47some sticker shock there. I'm like what?
4:49There's no way. Like let's look at like who he's around. That's the thing that I always >> Yeah. It's also coming off of the buy.
4:55It wouldn't surprise me to see the rookies more involved.
5:00>> Okay.
5:00>> Worthy. Easy. What the What?
5:03What?
5:05Pickkins. Easy. Bernard easy. Yeah, Malik Washington's too high.
5:11Waddle. Interesting.
5:15Yeah. Give me Wilson.
5:17>> I mean, this is [snorts] >> Give me Burden.
5:21Give me Higgins.
5:26>> Yeah, we'll get there in a second. Yeah, same game.
5:29>> What about Josh Downs?
5:32Amecha Igbuka.
5:34>> Ibuka maybe not Josh D.
5:37>> Trey Tucker.
5:38>> Not Trey Tucker.
5:39>> Jameson Williams.
5:42>> Jameson.
5:43>> Okay. I mean, you're definitely a lot lower on Malik than wide receiver 25.
5:47But >> you'll have to battle that out with Chris tomorrow.
5:50>> No.
5:51>> So, [snorts] >> all right. Uh Ali Gordon, we're calling him on the fence. I I feel like I like what I've seen from Ali Gordon, though.
5:58>> Yeah, man. Uh dude, he's top six in yards after contact per attempt, rushing yards over expectation per car parry.
6:04He's like no, he does nothing as a pass catcher, but uh the Jets are pretty soft in the ground. They're giving up the
6:10third highest rushing success rate. Also bottom five in, uh you know, hitting the running back behind the line of scrimmage. So, uh yeah, it's a it's it's
6:20a fairly good spot. RB lowend RB2 sounds about right to me, just >> on a crummy Dolphins team.
6:29on a crummy Dolphins team. Yeah. All right. On the Jet side of it, we are we're calling Brilan Allen a start, Wilson a start, Cooper a start.
6:39Everybody else is a sit or injury watch.
6:42I don't think we're getting Bree Hall.
6:45Does not look that way. Although, we still don't have great practice data yet. Brillin Allen, if if Bree Hall is a
6:51no-go, you calling him an RB1?
6:55>> Uh, I don't know that I'd call him an RB1. He's he's kind of like uh Ali Gordon except on a slightly less bad
7:03offense. Uh but he is, you know, he's he is getting like all of the work. He is, you know, really efficient, top 10 in
7:12yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles, force per attempt. Uh Miami kind of tough through the air. They're but they're giving up the third most
7:20fantasy points per game to running back.
7:22So yeah, maybe this is, you know, a fine ranking of him at at RB12. I wanted to bring him up actually on the buy low,
7:31sell high. I I think when Breeze comes back, this is going to be a really gross committee. I think there's a chance
7:37Brilland Allen is a better fit for this Frank Reich zone scheme than Breeze Hall, who's always been way better at
7:46man gap concept runs. Um, >> what about Brilan Allen's game would would cause you to say that?
7:53>> Just looking at the numbers, uh, Bree Hall over the last three years is like top three in yards per carry from man
8:03gap and is like bottom 10 and all the efficiency from zone. And Brilan Allen's been really good on zone runs this year.
8:13>> Yeah. I just when I look at like their skill set, I think some of that's fluky.
8:17>> Okay. Like Bree Hall is 100% better designed to be a zone runner than than Brillin Allen. I just think there's some
8:23some noise there for sure.
8:24>> Sure. You you should you should pull it up though because it's it's a really robust like >> I'm not saying the data is wrong. I'm
8:29just saying >> it's been every year >> this has been the case. But um >> yeah, we so we're very high on Omar
8:37Cooper Jr. Uh Garrett Wilson just a high-end mid-range wide receiver too. I so an interesting note about the Dolphins is
8:48>> they're giving up the second fewest fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers to outside wide receivers.
8:54>> Rookie Phenom Chris Johnson nickel corner.
8:57>> Yeah. Also, you know, not giving up a ton of play volume and that's a component of it.
9:02>> That's that's really it. Like they've been fine against the pass, but it's been mostly because teams come in with the mindset of we're just going to run
9:09down your throat.
9:10>> Yeah, exactly.
9:10>> They haven't had a lot of drawbacks against them. So, >> yeah. Uh, but their their nickel corner, Chris Johnson, the rookie from San Diego
9:16State, actually is legitimately awesome.
9:18So, that that might be why they're good against the slot specifically. But I don't I don't know that I like the
9:23Cooper. I think we're a little bullish.
9:25>> It's reminds me of the Jalon Daniels thing a couple weeks back where I was like, >> really, we have a oneame sample of him
9:30being okay and we're going to put him as a QB1. Do you remember that whole debate we had?
9:34>> Yeah. Well, we only have a oneame sample with Cooper. That's what I'm saying.
9:39Week one.
9:40So, I don't know how we go from one game sample, especially when one like 50s something yards of that game came out of
9:47busted coverage, too, or whatever. It's like I I don't >> It's also a really bad matchup. The, you know, like I said, to wide receivers,
9:54the Dolphins are giving up just 110 yards per game under 10 catches per game. Uh >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
10:01>> So, you have two guys here.
10:04>> Yeah. Uh by the way, if Adonai Mitchell's back, then you're you can't play Omar. nuke him. Yeah, I will say uh
10:12the Dolphins are horrendous against play action. 12.09 yards per target allowed. Like >> in the league, >> 88% catch rate. Um which, you know,
10:23Frank Reich's running play action at like, you know, league average. So, it's not it's not like it's going to be a
10:27huge focal point of their playbook, but they should hit some some big shots, I think, off of play action, especially if
10:33they establish that run game. So, uh, which benefits Garrett Wilson, to be honest, and Adnai I Mitchell if he's back. So,
10:40cool. I think I think we did this one pretty good. It's kind of a gross game.
10:45Um, another gross game. It's like we have we have all the bottom feeder teams in the league, you know, back toback and
10:51playing each other. Um, Browns are obviously outperforming expectations by a lot, so maybe I shouldn't call them a bottom feeder, but traditionally they're
10:58a bottom feeder. Cleveland Browns travel to the the Tennessee Titans. They're road favorites by one and a half points.
11:04It's basically a pick them.
11:06>> The overunder here is only 37 and a half. Is this the lowest overunder of the week? I believe it is.
11:11>> Yes.
11:12>> Gross.
11:13>> Um I Scott, I >> I don't know. I don't know. You're You're going to have to give me something here. I I don't even like
11:20seeing starts. I know you have to start Tony Pard and Carnell Tate at this point, but I don't like it. I know you
11:27have to start Judkins, but I don't like it.
11:30Do we have a running count on the LA? Uh are we are we 54 weeks since Quinn Sean Judkin's last game averaging more than
11:363.3 yards carry?
11:38>> Uh I think this would be the 16th straight game.
11:42>> He he he's coming off of an injury. So like don't be surprised if I don't know. Everyone's kind of hurt in
11:49that backfield. So that's probably a fair projection I'll say on Quinnon Judkins with Denzel Boston. I I I like as a
11:57sneaky sneaky play here.
11:58>> Yeah. you know, the schematic stuff. And I know we really can't have a ton of confidence just because he's a rookie.
12:04It's a small sample, but um we we he So, he averages 3.33 yards per route
12:15run against two high. That ranks six best in the league. And it's up from 0.53 against single high, which is bottom 10.
12:24That's a 6x jump. And the Titans played too high at one of the highest rates in the league, at least 50% in every week
12:32thus far. And it's the exact same thing against zone. You over 6x jump against zone. Tennessee also plays at a top 10
12:40rate. Uh they're bottom 12 or a top 12 matchup for outside wide receivers on paper. Um to be fair though, you know,
12:50he kind of had a very similar schematic matchup last week. He didn't really do anything. He had he had five straight
12:56games with at least 40 yards and then scored only 2.5 fantasy points. But I don't know. I it would just make sense,
13:04right? Um he's also like easily the most efficient receiver on the team. Like he his yards per target is over twice as
13:11good as KC's or Harold >> Fannins.
13:15>> So yeah, he he was someone who popped in the back of my mind as like a ladder bet maybe or something like that.
13:23um don't sleep on too much.
13:25>> I I really like um Boston this week a lot. So >> why?
13:31>> Well, what everything you just laid out, the schematic, but also Tennessee is really good against the run.
13:36>> Yeah, >> they can shut that down. The Browns are notoriously bad running the ball. So, I think it's strength on weakness for the
13:43Titans, which is going to force the Browns to pass the ball a little bit more here. And they're favorites in this
13:47game, which is crazy. So, like I mean it's not crazy they're favorites, but it's crazy that I think you have the strongest the strongest
13:56unit for the Titans is their rundy. The weakest unit for the Browns is their rushing offense. That alone, those two things alone should make the game
14:03relatively close. The Browns aren't exactly lighting the world on fire with their pass game either. However, I think they're going to have to lean into it in
14:09this game. Schematically, I like it. I like the matchup, too, that Boston's going to get. He's going to go against Cordell Flaw a little bit, but also Mika
14:18Robinson, who is a relatively unknown.
14:21Um, so I yeah, I I just think it's a really good match up for Boston. It is the the two high splits with him are
14:27crazy because when you look at the way this team's built, my instant reaction would be Harold Fannon Jr. and Casey Conception should eat against too high,
14:35>> right?
14:35>> They're both run after catch demons, you know, good route runners. Boston's the 6'4, you know, ex receiver. It just seems
14:42like it'd be not the guy you're targeting on against Too High, but whatever. Deshun Watson has his thing.
14:48So, >> yeah. Well, we talked about this actually last episode where Watson historically like always really struggled against too high >> like every single year of his career.
14:57And this year, he's actually been pretty good.
14:59>> And so, you you kind of said, well, maybe this is just something they repped a ton.
15:03>> Yep.
15:04>> Over the offseason because they knew this was an issue and just Boston was their guy. Um but yeah, so I I think
15:11that's an interesting angle. No one else is really on. Uh it is just only, you know, one little piece of the puzzle
15:17here. Um on the opposite side, Tony Per seems really high at RB17. And I think what's happening here is it's a really
15:26close spread. The the Browns are favored, but only by 1.5 points. But really what that's saying is like there's only a 55% chance the Browns win
15:35this game, which means there's a 45% chance the Titans win. And if the Titans win, that's a great setup for Tony Pard
15:42because the split here, it's really just Pard is the uh going to get all the runs. Spears is going to get all the
15:50targets. And so that means he's very game scripts sensitive. He does better in positive game scripts. Like last week, he had 19 carries. Taji Spears
15:59only had one. Uh even so, like I mean he's he's had Uber Bellcow usage before and he just hasn't done anything with
16:09it. Like has he had any any good fantasy games over the last calendar year? I'm not sure. Um but you know, checks in at
16:18uh RB17 and a tough matchup by the way. Tough on paper matchup, but um yeah, >> interesting. Um,
16:29Browns have been a very boomer bust run defense as well. They're giving up the second highest explosive run rate. And then you look at like their zone man
16:36splits. They're awful against zone concepts.
16:39>> So that was the that was the stat I had.
16:41They were bottom two or they were giving up the most or the second most explosive runs, but the second they were hitting
16:48running backs, contacting running backs behind the line of scrimmage at the second highest rate, which is interesting.
16:53>> Yeah, it's it's the nature of the way they play. They're front. They're doing a ton of like gap exchanges and stunts
16:59and twists and run blitzes. So it's like if you if you beat the run blitz, you're getting an explosive off of it, right?
17:04And so they're going to give up a ton of explosives, but they are also going to force a ton of negative plays. So,
17:10>> right. So, hey m maybe Pard, you know, rips off a 60-yard run and then he's an amazing start.
17:16>> Yep. Exactly. Exactly.
17:19Okay. Uh anything on Cardinal Tate? you know, we're not expecting this to be like a shootout. So, and Cam Ward already stinks, but the the piece of the
17:30pie Tate has is very significant. So >> yeah, it's um you know, if you look at the underlying utilization, he's kind of
17:39top 10 and everything by target share, first read target share, targets per route run, uh XFP per game over his last
17:47three, uh single high should work in his favor up against this Browns team. Yeah, this year's T McMillan uh he it's just
17:57like does Cam Ward throw for over 150 passing yards or not? Uh which is so sad and pathetic, but yeah, comes in at wide
18:06receiver 24. I think that's fair.
18:07>> If Cam Ward, let's play a hypothetical game. If Cam Ward gets to 200 passing yards, is Carnell Tate live up to wide
18:13receiver 24 or better?
18:15>> Yeah, pro probably. Okay, >> probably.
18:18>> Uh he dude, he's top 10 in yardage market share. I had the stat. It was something like if if he if Kim Ward was
18:26averaging as many passing yards per game as Bryce Young, Colonel Tate would be averaging like 131 yards per game just based off his yardage share. But it's
18:35just >> that's Kim board stinks.
18:38>> That's a lot of fun. That's a fun stat.
18:40All right, moving on to the Denver Broncos traveling to the Arizona Cardinals who just upset the LA Rams.
18:46Denver is a four-point favorite on the road over under a 43 and a half.
18:51Woo. I has the Broncos been good enough to be a four-point favorite on the road against a team that just beat the Rams.
19:00So, here's what I'll say about this and here's what I'll say about Bo Knicks as well is I think we kind of
19:08overrate uh or we have some overconfidence in like who we think teams are and like really A a valuable lesson for me is just like
19:19the importance of these schedule adjustments. You know, it matters even more than I knew it mattered a lot. I think it matters even more than that
19:27where it's like Drake May looks like the best quarterback in football up against these bottom 12 defenses,
19:37but when he played those top 10, top six defenses, he looked awful. And so Boone Knicks has, it's been embarrassing. Like
19:45I love that Ryan Fitzpatrick rant. It's been Yeah. embar like because he's not even like trying to give his chance his
19:52team a chance to win. It's just it's just check down after check down after there's guys wide open deep and he just
19:57doesn't even attempt it. And so the one thing you could say is those were some good defenses. Those were some tough
20:05teams.
20:06>> They were.
20:06>> This is well at least in comparison to like the softest matchup there is in the Arizona Cardinals.
20:14Bro, he he put up a robust 23 points against the LA Chargers.
20:23>> Yeah, >> that's not a tough matchup. What did he even do in that game? 123 passing yards against the LA Chargers. I understand he
20:31just played Seattle. I understand he played the 49ers, but against the LA Chargers, he got into a QB duel with Justin Herbert and they were in a fight
20:39to get to 125 and neither quarterback did. This is gross.
20:46>> Yeah, >> I understand what you're saying. I think you're I don't want I don't want to lose your >> Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, and then it's one
20:53game.
20:54>> Ram Rams defense has been awful. Rams defense has been awful.
20:57>> No.
20:57>> Yeah.
20:59>> Objectively bad.
21:00>> They've been they've been not as good as expectations without >> No, they they take away opposing teams number one wide receivers and that's it.
21:08>> They get run on, they get passed on.
21:10They're not good. They can't get off the field on third down.
21:15They just lost to the Cardinals, for example. They gave up six scoring drives against the Arizona Cardinals.
21:20>> Well, you know who's going to lose to the Cardinals?
21:22>> The Denver Broncos.
21:24>> Sounds like that's what you think.
21:25>> I I am going to pick the Cardinals to win this game. Yes.
21:28>> Do straight up.
21:29>> Yes, straight up.
21:30>> All right. Well, that's a fun that's a fun bet for you guys. Throw that into your Denzel Boston uh altline 60 yards
21:37parlay. Um yeah, so JK Dobbins on defense. I think he's a sid if Jonah Coleman comes back. Um maybe bump him up
21:47a little bit if not just because dude Shawn Payeyton loves him. Usage and volume has been really good. Efficiency not.
21:54Um and it is by the way a pass funnel matchup here against the Cardinals which is why maybe Waddles on the a what the
22:02heck flex rather than just like an RIP.
22:05So, uh, there is that, but he does have under 35 receiving yards in five of six games this year, which is like
22:14I want to throw up. Do you remember having Matt Harmon on the show, >> Brett, and being like Jaylen Jaylen Waddle like might be elite? Jayen Wadd
22:21is so good. Jayen Wadd's gonna, >> bro, I said that all off season, too.
22:25>> What do you mean?
22:26>> And so, like, what happened there? Is Jaylen Did Jaylen Wadd suddenly turn into a pumpkin or is it really just
22:32Boick?
22:34>> Yeah. Who's their backup quarterback?
22:36>> Would it be a clear upgrade over what we've seen this far?
22:40>> It's uh isn't STDM? Is it Jared?
22:43>> Dude, even John Elway. Can we just put John Elway back? Jared STDM, Sam Ellinger, and uh John Elway.
22:52>> I feel like Michael Wilson could eat in this matchup.
22:55>> I'm sorry.
22:56>> Do you [clears throat] Do you really?
22:58>> Hold on. That's not >> Patrick's team.
23:02>> We're still on the Broncos. Hold on, let me back up. Sorry. I I like Jaylen Waddle in this matchup since we're
23:07talking about Waddle.
23:09Cardinal's playing too high at the highest rate in the league.
23:13>> Yeah, that's that's an RJ Harvey schematic, unfortunately.
23:19>> Okay, then I like R.J. Harvey at this point, >> but but well, actually, Arizona is giving up the fewest running back
23:25targets. Um, and they're >> Is that just because they suck at covering receivers, though?
23:31>> It could be. They're they're they are a major pass funnel where they're like good to decent >> on the ground and then just like worst
23:38in the league through the air. So yeah, >> yeah, this would be the that's what I was trying to get at. This would be the
23:42ultimate get right spot for Bow Knicks and Jaylen Waddle and then it if it doesn't happen, it's over. It is over.
23:48RIP.
23:50>> RIP. And it's could be like a squeaky wheel thing too, right? Where like Bo Knicks is just getting hammered.
23:55>> It's been a squeaky wheel thing for >> I mean, did you hear what he said after the the last week's game?
23:59>> No. What did he say? He was like, "Well, I I guess I mean, what's the downside of throwing down the field? It's just I
24:05might throw some more interceptions. I guess I just have to live with that and do it."
24:08>> Like, bro, you can't have your quarterback talking like this in public.
24:12>> I guess I should just do it.
24:13>> Did you see Tom Pelisero had a who's an NFL insider had a tweet about what was going on in Denver and it was over 700
24:21words long. He wrote a novel and I'm like, "No." I'm like, "Okay, Bo Knicks is losing his job or, you know, Shawn
24:29Peyton is in like the hottest of water if this doesn't turn around over the next two weeks."
24:34>> Somebody Well, you have a first round pick for Shawn Peyton. Don't forget that.
24:37>> Yeah. I mean, he's probably he's probably fine. He's probably fine. But, uh, Bo Nicks, yeah, let's >> I was actually agreeing with you.
24:43>> A first round pick for >> I talked about with Bo Nicks when he was coming out is like you question like the
24:49mental processing and the ability to diagnose defenses. What mental processing?
24:55>> Huh?
24:56>> I said, "What mental processing?"
24:57>> Right. But here's the thing [laughter] is like, bro, his his dad is like a famous >> football coach, >> high school football coach,
25:04>> right? Yeah. But it's like and and he had, you know, his own special quarterback, you know, coach, meet with him after school every day for 10 years.
25:14>> They all do now, >> right? But it's like if you still suck and he's what, like he's like 28 years
25:20old. You had like six years in college and it's like if if you're still struggling, what makes you think it's going to get better?
25:29>> No, I I don't expect it to get better.
25:31This is who he is, >> you know? This is who he is.
25:35>> They need to get him on the move. That's where he throws accurate passes. Why did he He stopped running, too.
25:40>> Yeah. Well, he has this ankle.
25:43His fourth time. I don't know, but it's his fourth time having surgery on the ankle.
25:47>> Crazy.
25:49All right. Well, we spent way too much time talking about a bad offense.
25:55>> I I like that. I It's, you know, it's frustrating to me. It's therapeutic. I appreciate, you know, you giving me this
26:01time.
26:02>> It is. It is therapeutic. You're right.
26:05Okay. Um, back to the Cardinals. Now, you mentioned Pat Certain and Michael Wilson. Do you know Pat Certain is not playing in this game, correct?
26:14>> Oh, I forgot actually. He's on IR and their other quarterback, Riley Moss, >> probably is not playing either.
26:24>> So, he's going to be left with Jade Baron, Chris Abrams, Drain, Jal Mclofflin. I I feel Did I say Jal
26:31Mclofflin? That's a running back.
26:32What is the hell is their slot corner name?
26:36>> Dude, I thought Patrick Certain was playing.
26:39>> Fair enough. Fair enough. Anyways, I do think this is a good spot for Michael Wilson to get right after a couple down
26:46weeks.
26:47Um, Broncos are down some hor Oh, uh, Hunga's down, too. They're saving >> Jaquan McMillan.
26:54>> Jaquan McMillan. There we go. Taquan McMillan. And then >> we just pulled up the wide receiver versus quarterback matchup report over
27:01on fantasypoints.com.
27:02>> Nice. And then Talenoa Huunga's down too. So, they're down some horses in the secondary. This is typically a secondary you would see go out of their way to
27:09like kind of what Detroit did. They just bracketed or or double doubled Wilson and McBride the whole game. Denver can't do that this week. They don't have the
27:17horses. All their guys are hurt. So I I think Wilson will get right for sure.
27:22Other than that, I'm I don't I'm not super super excited about Tyler Algier.
27:27Why did Bam Knight get so many carries last week?
27:29>> Oh, bro. Good question.
27:32>> That is so gross to me.
27:34>> Yeah. Well, I'm I'm dropping Alir in a lot like >> you have to >> if if if Jeremiah Love comes back. I'm
27:41just d because he's the thesis didn't hold. You know, you wanted him to be the bellcow if right >> Jeremiah Love went down and it wasn't
27:47the case.
27:47>> He was supposed to be the premier handcuff in the league. They gave him like he's >> I know what $18 million over three years
27:53or something like it was a big contract.
27:55>> The promise when they signed him was he was going to be a bellcow and he drafted a rookie and they were like my bad.
27:59Well, like we'll still get you involved.
28:02How about that? You know, the disgusting thing is James Conor's coming back.
28:06>> Bro, I love James Conor. James Connor is one of my favorite players in the league.
28:10>> They're going to trade him to Detroit.
28:12Don't worry about it.
28:13>> Uh, dude, I I hope he goes somewhere fun.
28:17>> Detroit. He's going to Detroit.
28:18>> Okay. But if you if you look up the stats, Brett, over the last three, four years, James Conor's top three in
28:24everything.
28:25>> Yeah. yards after contact per attempt, miss tackless force per touch, rushing yards over expectation per carry, yards per route run, whatever. And it's like
28:34you look at the top fives, it's all like it's it's like Bejan Gibbs, James Connor, A Chan. It's like, dude, this
28:42dude's he just needs to stay. I mean, he's he's a lot older and a lot of injuries, but >> bro, >> that's why he's perfect in Detroit.
28:49>> Backup Jir Gibbs, get those, you know, five to 10 touches a week. If Gibbs goes down, you got a nice starter for a
28:55couple weeks.
28:56>> Yeah.
28:57>> And Drew Petting's the offensive coordinator. Drew Petting knows James Conor better than anybody.
29:02>> You see where I'm going with this? It's Listen, I predicted JJ McCarthy's trade.
29:06I'm predicting James Conor's trade right now.
29:08>> Detroit Lions week.
29:11>> What is the trade deadline? Week nine.
29:13Detroit Lions will trade for James Conor in week nine.
29:17>> All right. What happens if you uh if you get that right?
29:20>> If I get that right?
29:21>> Yeah. I get like seven cooking segments.
29:26>> Um, I'll I'll I'll think of something good for you. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know if I could give up
29:31seven cooking segments. What's the What's the next dish we're making?
29:36>> Uh, a lot of beef burgon requests.
29:40>> Okay. All right.
29:40>> So, you know, we'll do that.
29:43>> We're not going to do any vegan friendly dishes. That's kind of messed up.
29:46>> Do I look like a a vegan [laughter] friendly cook? [gasps] >> You don't look very friendly to vegans, Brett. No.
29:52>> Oh, I'm very friendly to vegans.
29:54>> Oh, >> I have nothing against vegans.
29:55>> I'm just not >> My cooking does not represent my friendliness to them.
30:00>> Oh, okay.
30:00>> You know what I mean?
30:02>> I eat pretty much beef. Beef and only beef.
30:05>> Beef and eggs. It's my whole diet.
30:07Okay.
30:09>> Anything else here in this game we want to talk about?
30:12I I don't think Jeremiah loves coming back. That looks correct, right?
30:18Um, >> yeah. So, so how would you put this matchup through the air without a Riley Moss, without a Patrick Certain? They
30:27still have a really good pass rush.
30:28Would you say it's like middle of the pack? Would you say it's like top 10 favorable for Jacobian company?
30:34>> I think it's super favorable for them.
30:35>> Awesome.
30:36>> Especially the like a lot of these quick hitters to Wilson and McBride. Like I think high volume games for both of
30:42them. Seven, eight catches a piece, maybe more for McBride. Um, how productive they are will really just depend on how bad Denver tackles, but
30:50Denver's a terrible tackling team. So, >> yeah, this is a really sneaky spot in DFS. Then, Jacobe doubles. Jacobe plus Michael Wilson, Trey McBride,
31:00>> just because it's such a concentrated offense and then you don't have Jeremiah Love either.
31:05>> So, um, yeah, like for the Millie Maker, you know, $20, you have a chance at a million dollars. You need to go a little
31:12more unorthodox. I think that's kind of interesting.
31:15>> Nice.
31:17We ready to move on?
31:18>> Yeah, >> let's do it. The Green Bay Packers travel to Detroit.
31:24>> Game of the week.
31:24>> Game of the week. They're uh they're playing the Lions. Detroit's favored by three at home. The overunder in this game is tops on the slate at 53 and a
31:31half. That's true for every Lions game, though. It's always the top overunder of the week because they have a good offense and their defense sucks. Um
31:39but the screen is hilarious. Look at the screen right now. [laughter] It's >> Yeah, it's all green.
31:43>> Just green. Just green. Uh, and even like Josh Jacobs on the fence, I'd say start him. You know, he's he's been a
31:49Lions killer in the past. Jameson Williams at wide receiver 34. I'd say start him, too, to be honest with you.
31:55Definitely start him in your flex.
31:58But let's start on the Packers side. I mean, is there a better matchup this season than than Jordan Love, Watson, and Golden versus the Lion secondary?
32:07>> No. No. You you nailed it. Uh Jordan Love throws deep at the sixth highest rate in the league this year over the
32:15last three, four years, the highest.
32:18Easily leads all quarterbacks in deep passing yards per game. Detroit, they rank bottom three in yards per game allowed to wide receivers on deep
32:27passes. Uh they also give up the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, bottom five in EPA for dropback, etc., etc. Um, so this just looks like a great
32:38spot for Jordan Love, for Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, who by the way, both ranked top six among all wide receivers in receiving yards. Um, and
32:49then even Trey Tucker, too, you know, very quietly 20% target share last week, top five in XFP per game at the position
32:57over the last three. Uh, Detroit giving up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. A lot of that is touchdowns,
33:03but still still. So, yeah, I I think it's the start. If you got them, we >> do want to hear the grossest stat you'll
33:10ever hear in your life.
33:11>> Let's hear it.
33:12>> The Lions are passes a game.
33:17>> So, you actually froze up on my screen, so I didn't get to hear that.
33:20>> Did I actually?
33:21>> Yeah.
33:22>> The Lions are giving up eight explosive passes a game >> on defense.
33:26>> No way.
33:27>> Yes.
33:28>> They've given up 38 in five games.
33:31That's 7.8 per game. That is so unbelievably disgusting. And Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are the explosive receiver type. They are going
33:41to beat you downfield at the intermediate and deep level over and over and over. The question for them is how many drops they have a piece, right?
33:50Like if Watson can can get out of this game with only two drops, he's going to have 150 yards.
33:54>> Bro, they dropped three touchdowns last week.
33:57>> I [laughter] I know.
34:00So, you want to talk about DFS? Like, this is just like, >> oh my god, >> the the smart play, you know, I was
34:05talking about the the yolo contrarian play. The smart play is just >> load up on as many of these players as
34:11you can all in one lineup. Um, yeah, man. Looks like, you know, and a great spot to cook up a same game parlay. You
34:19know, maybe instead of watching red zone in the four o'clock window, you just you just watch this and you you see how your
34:25Jordan Love over Jared Gooff over Christian Watson, over Matthew Golden, over Aman Ross Brown, two plus touchdowns bet does for you.
34:35>> Yeah.
34:37On the line [snorts] side of it, Green Bay is beat to heck on their front.
34:40Their dtackles are beat up.
34:42>> I watch your language.
34:44This is a familyfriendly show.
34:47I'm I'm trying to get you prepared for when we do the Bible study channel.
34:51>> You know what I mean? So, I'm I'm prepping you now. I don't know if you've noticed, but I don't curse a lot. Have
34:55you ever noticed that about me?
34:57>> Yeah.
34:57>> Yeah.
34:58>> And usually when I do, it's when you know, like you're like, "Man, you must be really mad right now cuz you just
35:02cursed." [laughter] >> Yeah. My wife hates when I curse. Like even if >> That's crazy because you do it a lot.
35:08>> I know. I know. Even if I say like crap, she she gets really upset. Yeah.
35:14>> That just means she's a good woman. Oh, she she's the best.
35:17>> Shout out to my wife.
35:18>> My wife if I if I curse in front of my wife probably curses more often than I do, but when I do it, she's like, "Okay,
35:23what's going on? You all right?" You know, like >> Yeah.
35:26>> All right. Uh oh, I was going to say Jir Gibbs. Yeah, the the Packers front beat the hack. I think I don't need to tell
35:32you to start Jir Gibbs, right? But >> uh this week, >> there could there could be a thousand passing guards in this game. Honestly,
35:42>> what what if you have Quinn Sean Judkins or Jir Gibbs? Who you starting?
35:48>> I guess Jamir Gibbs, but that's that's a real uh that's a real test, >> bro. The D the guys in our DFS uh
35:56Discord give me so much [ __ ] for doing a start sit when I used to just do these like 50,000word DFS articles. Yeah,
36:03dude. Jimmy Gibbs. Uh like he's going to go nuclear and like even in all that matters is the overunder here.
36:1253.5 over is like, yeah, he has a great chance of scoring three touchdowns. He's a freak of nature.
36:17>> Do people still play DFS?
36:20>> Yeah.
36:20>> Honest question. Yeah.
36:21>> Yep.
36:22>> How how do you feel?
36:23>> One of our one of our subs won $2 million. He won the Millie.
36:28>> The There were two Millies running the high dollar and then the $20. He won both of them. This was like three weeks
36:34ago.
36:34>> Yeah.
36:36>> That's our fourth consecutive year >> a sub has won a million dollars playing DFS, which is crazy. That's like on par
36:43with like [clears throat] ETR and stochastic who have like seven times as many >> heard of DFS subscribers as us and like
36:52so you know shout out to us >> used to but then they stopped selling projections.
36:56>> Well that's that's betting but that's we're really punching above our weight there and like I said we had the best
37:02DFS projections in the industry last year so [clears throat] >> and we hope to do it again.
37:08Four. Four. Dude, you might as well just call us the Kingmakers.
37:13>> Yeah, >> that's insane. Four years in a row, we've had a Millie Maker winner.
37:16>> Yeah.
37:17>> At least one. That's incredible.
37:20Uh, all right. Let's move Let's move on.
37:22>> No.
37:23>> No.
37:23>> There's a very lead here.
37:25>> Okay.
37:25>> That I think is hilarious.
37:27>> What?
37:29>> Bro, Chris hates Jame Williams more than me. Apparently, ostensibly.
37:36You have a 54 point overunder and you have Jameson Williams as a fringe wide receiver three.
37:45>> Like as bad as Jameson Williams has been, he's wide receiver 32 in XFP or in fantasy points per game.
37:53>> Yeah, it's true.
37:53>> He's wide receiver 11 in XFP per game.
37:57>> I I assume Chris would split the difference. He has him >> I'm I'm messaging him right now. This is crazy. Well, the the one thing I'll say
38:04in his favor is is Green Bay allows the third fewest deep yards per game to wide receivers. They are giving up the six most
38:15fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. So, it seems like more of a Aman Ross St. Brown in the short to
38:22intermediate levels of the field. Um, >> has Griebe played a team like Detroit yet though?
38:31I don't know.
38:32>> I think that's a worthy conversation to be honest.
38:36>> Um, >> an Xavier worthy conversation.
38:39>> Listen, Green Bays played the Minnesota Vikings with Carson Wentz. They played the New York Jets, the Atlanta Falcons with Jack Strand and Cooper Rush, the
38:48Tampa Bay Bucks with Jalon Daniels, the Chicago Bears with Tyson Begent, and the Dallas Cowboys. I mean like this is where context matters a lot.
38:59Also, Jameson Williams gets good signal in too high. His yards for target goes up, yards for run goes up, his uh target
39:08share goes up. Jameson's been a big part of their too high plan this year. So, I'm I'm going to have to I mean, I was
39:15okay with it until you brought it up to be honest cuz I'm like, well, you can't go Jir RB1, Raw, wide receiver 7,
39:22Leaporto tight end four. Like, something's going to have to give. They can't all smash.
39:27>> But now that you Now I'm mad.
39:29>> Yeah, I knew you would be. I >> Oh, yeah. Trey just made a good point.
39:34The Falcons game was against Penn and Penn absolutely fried them on Thursday Night Football.
39:38>> Yep.
39:39>> Yeah. Yep. As much as much as I grief as I've given you and Jameson Williams this year, I I think wide receiver 34 is too
39:47low.
39:47>> It's bonkers low.
39:49>> We you have Malik Washington, wide receiver 25.
39:52>> Yeah.
39:53>> Listen, these are the best projections in the industry. Like you we we track our results up against, you know, everyone in the and we had the
40:01mo the the best correlation to real results. And uh the one thing I'll say is every time I do this, Chris is right.
40:10>> No, that's not that's not true.
40:12>> And then we have our Friday projections call.
40:15>> That's true. We we do get some funny we got a funny comment this week. It's like I've never seen a company do do a show
40:22to explicitly tell you why their projections are wrong, [laughter] which that's not what we're doing here.
40:28We're only It's may feel that way sometimes cuz we point out the the few spots we do disagree, but generally speaking, we're like 98% in lock step
40:36with Chris.
40:37>> Yeah. And that, by the way, that's also a cue for you to, you know, place some bets potentially because >> Sure.
40:45>> We're going to be closer in line with industry consensus early in the week.
40:49So, it's like, yeah, this is probably what, you know, all the other sites have on Jameson Williams. Yeah, it's also worth pointing out like schematic stuff
40:58isn't factored into the model and so Chris does rely on us to point that stuff out to him.
41:03>> That happens between now and Friday. And then also these are median projections.
41:08These aren't ceiling outcomes, right? So like I can look at the schematic match up. I can look at the role Jameson
41:12Willinghams and I can tell you his ceiling outcome is way higher than wide receiver 34. It's probably wide receiver four, but like what is the chances he
41:20hits that? Probably 10%. So you lean into the median projections a little bit more. So those are definitely valuable notes.
41:28So usually when I'm bullish on a guy that Chris is lower on, it's because I think the chance of him he hitting a
41:33ceiling is just higher than Chris does.
41:35That's all. That's all.
41:37>> All right, let's move on.
41:41The LA Rams travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders and they are somehow still road favorites despite everything that's happened this season. The LA Rams
41:51are four and a half point favorites on the road to a Vegas team that's played pretty good. They're three and three.
41:57The pass game's been really good. The defense has, you know, exceeded expectations by a mile.
42:0447 and a half point overunder. Uh the Rams implied point total in this game is 26. The Raiders just 21 and a half.
42:11Let's talk about the Rams first.
42:13Um it we're back to like the hyper consolidated Rams with Devonte gone.
42:18It's like Stafford, Kairen, Puka, boom.
42:23What say you?
42:25>> Yeah, I I think this is a great spot for them. You look at the Raiders defense, they're bottom seven in fantasy points
42:31per game allowed to quarterbacks, running backs, slot wide receivers, tight ends. Um, and so, you know, obviously the the offense takes a little
42:40step back here without Adams, but I think the matchup kind of neutralizes that a little bit. Um, you've been you've been talking about Stafford not
42:49being quite fully healthy. Um, not quite right, not looking great, but it's, you know, again, a top five matchup.
42:59>> Yeah.
43:00>> So, QB8 sounds fair to Go ahead.
43:02>> Well, I say it's also a great matchup for Kairen though, too.
43:06>> Yeah.
43:06>> And and Cororum for that matter. The Raiders run defense is completely cracked. The last three weeks >> they gave up 177 to Kansas uh to Kenneth
43:15Walker. The next week they gave up 140 rushing yards to New England on the ground to to running backs not including
43:23Drake May stuff. And then last week they got beat up by James Cook. So like they started the season pretty good. Actually
43:30that's not true either. They gave up 94 yards to Amarian Hampton. Do you know how hard that is to do to give up 94
43:35yards to Amari and Hampton?
43:37>> Yeah.
43:37>> So this Raiders run defense sucks. just point blank sucks over five yards a carry. I don't know.
43:44>> Yeah, I I went over it uh last week when we were talking about James Cook. It's the worst yards before contact per
43:50attempt allowed in fantasy points data history.
43:52>> Wow.
43:52>> It's a better more predictive stat than yards per carry for for measuring matchups such as these. Um and yeah, dude, he he's second best in XFP per
44:03game over his last three games.
44:06uh efficiency really good. Top seven in rushing yards over expectation per carry.
44:11His his uh you know it was disappointing last week. It looked like more of a committee with Blake Horm by at least
44:17touch share, but if you look at snap share, he was at 71%, target share at 15%. And he like cried about it. He
44:24complained about not being on the field more. So, >> which made no sense, >> right? Right. Maybe he gets punished for
44:30that or maybe he >> squeaky wheel.
44:33>> Squeaky wheel. Um, but in any case, it's a great spot for a player who who's seen like his role has been awesome and now
44:40Adams is out. Puka Nakua, we talked I went on a 10-minute rant, so I don't know that you guys need me to go on
44:46another one, but easily top play the slate. Should just go nuclear without Adams. Like there's there's a pathway to like 27 targets, you know.
44:56>> Um, can I can I say one more thing about our projections?
45:01>> Yeah. I think it's also important to note that we this is the last recorded show of the of the the week.
45:10>> Yeah.
45:11>> Right. And so our projections meeting happens Friday.
45:14>> That's why it's really important for you guys to have a a sub >> so you have access to our projections
45:18because those get dialed in between now when we stop recording and kickoff on, you know, Sunday morning. So, like it is
45:26really important because a lot of these disagreements we talk about on the show, those all get ironed out and either Chris wins the battle or we do, but we
45:32all land in a consensus spot that's really really good and and I I definitely think that's it's a good opportunity to to point out why a
45:40subscription is needed to the site. It's not just like our our show is great. We give a ton of information, Scott, but
45:45like there is another layer to this that goes way deeper.
45:48>> Yeah. Well, like you're getting the best projections in the industry. You're getting access to all the tools, all knowledge, the AI, the everything
45:56report, you know, all of our best articles. How much is a sub? It must be like $1,000.
46:04>> How much is a sub, Scott?
46:06>> It's $60. You get 15% off with promo code DS2 we just talked about. So, $51 over that's for a year. So, divided by
46:1612 months, that's $4 and a quarter.
46:19Insane.
46:20>> That's insane. And then you can add data sweet 2 on for for the low price of like $180 a year or or you go monthly
46:27>> or you can do inseason betting. You we crushing the bets.
46:30>> Yeah.
46:31>> Then maybe you get your your all your subs paid for and then some.
46:35>> Yeah. And then >> and go on a nice little uh vacation to Detroit, which Brett tells me is lovely this time of year [laughter]
46:43>> with their abandoned uh auto factories.
46:46And >> that's not true.
46:49What are you talking about?
46:50>> Crime and crack.
46:52>> 2009 was a long time ago. You know what I mean? Things have bounced. We got new money in the city. We We're like the the
46:58financial headquarters of the Midwest.
47:01You got, you know, Dan Gilbert up here.
47:04He's basically rebuilt the entire downtown area by himself. It's great.
47:08>> Yeah. If you like Newark, New Jersey, >> you're so disrespectful. It's unbelievable. It's unbelievable.
47:17Scott, you hung out with hung out with me in Detroit for a day.
47:19>> I had a great time. I loved it. I I I said uh I was really impressed by it.
47:23>> Yeah. Um another note, actually. Let's go to the Raiders side of the ball.
47:27>> No, let's talk about Tyler Higgby.
47:28>> Do we have to?
47:30>> Well, I think this is weird. You know, last week I was like, "Hey, Tyler Higgby is way too low." We got into a big fight
47:37about it.
47:37>> This is we and Chris did. Yeah.
47:39>> Yeah. And and it it was to the point where I'm like if if Kobe Parkinson goes off and Tyler Habby does nothing, I'm
47:46just never going to talk in a projections meeting again. And now I think he is Tyler Hab too high and Kobe
47:51Parkinson too low.
47:52>> He's trolling you.
47:54>> He must be. But uh Pu Puka Nu, you know, you don't have Devonte Adams. It can't really just be all Puka. We don't have
48:02Kannata Munfield on here, so he's he's not even in he's below Kobe Parkinson, that means. Um, but yeah, it's I think
48:10both guys are going to be at at least a 50% route share. I trust Tyler Higgby more, but but Kobe Parkinson did just
48:18have more targets uh and more fantasy points scored. Uh, it's a top six matchup for both of them. Higgby
48:2857 yards per game over his last three.
48:30So, I I I think that's fine. I I I do think Parkinson maybe is still low a little low, but I guess it doesn't
48:37really matter if you're not starting it.
48:38>> Where do we have Konado Mumfield? I'm trying to find it.
48:43>> Below wide receiver 59 6.3 points.
48:46>> Yeah, that's kind of crazy.
48:48>> Yeah, I think I I see the logic, Scott. Tyler Higgby, you know, a little bit more a wide receiver type. That's not even
48:59true. But Porkinson's like big red zone target.
49:03Higgby's more of a possession type tight end. So I I think I see the logic. But that said, all right, the Raiders side.
49:08Let's hit the Raiders side, please. Uh I like this match up for Ashen Genty.
49:13>> Oh, quite a bit. Now, do I like Ashen Genty? No.
49:17>> I think this is one of those classic, we say it all the time, like if he can't do it this week, don't know when he can.
49:23But the the Raiders are down like their entire interior defensive line. They have Aaron Donald left who has been bad this year. Um Tyler Davis
49:34is the starting nose. They've got five guys on IR. I mean, this is crazy. Their their middle linebacker situation is not
49:41great with Nate Landman and Omar Spates.
49:44If if Genty can't get it done on the on the ground this game, I I don't know what to say. We're out on Ashen Genty
49:52officially.
49:53Yeah, >> you might already be there, but I'm just saying like >> you see the Trent Richardson tweets.
50:01>> No, >> I've been talking about it for weeks.
50:03>> Yeah, I know you.
50:04>> But yeah, if you just compare them by every stat, it's like ident. They both have the same number of explosive runs,
50:11three through, you know, 22 23 career games. Um, the volume was amazing. He's still RB3 by XFP per game, but um is
50:22down to a 57% snap share last week, 50% carry share. I think RB18's fair, balancing, >> yeah, >> the concerns in the matchup. Trey
50:32Tucker, I think, is a stit.
50:35Chris has him as a what the heck flash.
50:37>> Why is he a sit?
50:39>> Well, it's because the Rams press at the highest rate in the league. Trey Tucker.
50:43It's one of the bottom three worst wide receivers in the league against press coverage the last two years. 0.48 yards per route run.
50:51>> Why were they giving up?
50:52>> The Rams are giving up the fourth fewest fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers and the second fewest deep
50:58yards per game.
51:00>> There's a couple key factors here you're not thinking of.
51:02>> Okay, let's hear it.
51:03>> Trent McDuffy not playing in this game.
51:05>> Okay.
51:06>> Jaylen Watson also banged up. Probably going to play, but also banged up.
51:10>> It's not a scheme thing. just >> had the best corner.
51:14>> Two dogs at at corner. Now they're they're going to be starting Emanuel Forbes.
51:19>> Oh, no.
51:20>> Yeah.
51:20>> You remember the AJ Brown game against him?
51:23>> Josh Wallace. Like I I don't know. I >> I'm not saying Tucker's not a flex wide receiver 33, but I don't know that
51:30calling him a sit is is wise either personally, but I think I like him as a flex.
51:35>> Yeah.
51:37>> Fair.
51:38>> Sure.
51:39Do you actually think the Rams are like, do you think this is a smart line?
51:42They're favored by four and a half on the road. They've been objectively bad as a team.
51:53So I I feel like a lot of your takes in this game are the assumption that the Rams are heavy favorites. the Rams.
52:01>> So, if you just look at fantasy points per game allowed, they're not they're above average everywhere >> against quarterbacks, running backs.
52:09>> Yeah, that was before their entire defense died.
52:12>> Yeah.
52:12>> You listening to what I'm saying? They have three DTackles on IR. Their star best the their prime acquisition is gone. Miles Garrett, their other prime
52:20acquisition, Trent McDuffy's gone.
52:22Jaylen Watson's banged up. I'm I'm just saying, man. Like I they're they don't have the horses people think >> they open up an electrical substation
52:28next to their their field recently.
52:30>> I mean they did touch people on the 49ers team in in week one >> who are radioactive and >> they started glowing after is yeah we
52:38played the 49ers and I turned the lights off last night and I was glowing fluorescent neon.
52:45>> Well that reminds me of the friends episode where Ross gets his teeth whitened and they glow in the dark and
52:51he he scares the girl he's with. I think it's so funny that Friends is your favorite TV show.
52:55>> Oh, dude, it's so good.
52:57>> And you you try and drop a reference every episode >> because there's it's kind of like Seinfeld where like there's a there's
53:03literally a Seinfeld reference for every situation in life. That's kind of how Friends is, too. Like there's a Friends episode for every situation in life.
53:09>> I'm a Frraasier guy, by the way.
53:11>> Frasier's also fantastic.
53:13>> It's the best.
53:14>> You think it's the best?
53:15>> It's the for sure the best. Yeah.
53:17>> I got to rewatch it then. I haven't watched it probably in 15 years. There are some episodes that are just like an
53:23Oscar Wild short story. Just like perfectly written, just brilliant.
53:27Really? Yeah. I'm a It also has a heart, you know, like a heart that's like missing from I don't know, present day
53:32television, but uh >> big big Frasier guy.
53:36>> Nice. What What show was he on before that? Was it uh Golden Cheers?
53:40>> Cheers. That's >> I never really got into that to be honest. Maybe I'm missing out on something, but >> I almost said Golden Girls. [laughter]
53:46>> Golden Girls.
53:48My cousin's like a huge Golden Girls fan as a >> 40-year-old man.
53:52>> Oh, yeah.
53:53>> But my my college roommate was a big Golden Girls guy.
53:57>> That's hilarious.
54:00>> All right, let's move on. The Kansas City Chiefs are traveling to the West Coast to play uh the Seattle Seahawks.
54:05The Seattle Seahawks are favored by two and a half at home. The overunder in this game is 42 and a half. Definitely
54:11feels like the makings of a defensive battle. Uh both these defenses are are pretty darn good. So, let's start on the
54:17Chiefs side. This is a a show record or we're showing seven players on the screen for the Chiefs right now.
54:26>> Two of which are in injury watch. How is Taekquin Thornton on injury watch?
54:29>> I don't know. I I assumed he isn't he on IR.
54:32>> Yeah, bro. He he like almost ended his career.
54:35>> He dislocated his his ankle. He's out for the rest of the season.
54:38>> Yeah, I don't know how that Who puts a show together? What is this?
54:42>> What is this? Rashi on injury watch though for sure. Let's start with your guy Patrick Mahomes, who you told me is
54:48the best quarterback to ever play and he should be a start every week, but you're call we're calling him QB19 this week.
54:54>> Bro, I think that's kind of fair. You look at uh XFP per game is QB31 over the last three weeks.
55:02So, the volume is really not there. It's really like, hey, they're they're winning these games, but it's really like, hey, let's let's hide the
55:09quarterback and just run everything through Kenneth Walker, who's awesome, by the way. It's a revenge game for Kenneth Walker against the Seahawks.
55:16It's also a rough schematic matchup for Patch Mahomes, who's he's kind of not been great against zone coverage this year from a he's from a fantasy
55:25perspective and then it's a bottom three matchup. Uh I mean the Seahawks defense, they're they're great everywhere. It's a whole bunch of red. They're second best
55:33against quarterbacks, best against slot wide receivers, third best against tight ends, eighth best against outside wide receivers. They look middle of the pack
55:41against running backs, which, you know, might suggest it's a little bit of a runfunnel for a runfunnel offense, but uh the yard top three in yards per
55:49carry, rushing yards over expectation per carry, it's it's a lot more through the air, which isn't really Kenneth Walker's game, although he did have that
55:58110 target uh 60 plus yard performance in week two.
56:04>> [sighs] >> Um, Seattle's [snorts] had the benefit, too, of playing some very bad running teams in, you know, Arizona, Washington, San Francisco, I
56:14mean, sorry, the Chargers, Denver Broncos. They haven't they haven't really been tested either. You know, this will definitely be a test
56:22that they're um biggest test of the year for them on the run defense front.
56:29Um, if Rashi doesn't go, how does that affect your take on Xavier Worthy?
56:35>> Well, if Rashi goes, I don't think Xavier Worthy's in play, and I think Rashi Rice jumps up to where Xavier
56:42Worthy is. But, >> right, I asked you the opposite. If Rashi doesn't go, >> then then I Yeah, I like Xavier Worthy
56:47exactly where he's projected. He's had seven targets and 70 plus yards in back-to-back games without Rashi Rice.
56:54>> Both games, you know, very runheavy.
56:56Chiefs didn't really have to try all that hard. [snorts] >> Okay.
56:59>> Uh so should be potentially even better than that despite the matchup.
57:04>> Uh Xavier Worthy or Malik Washington?
57:08>> Worthy. We went over this already.
57:10>> Xavier Worthy or Jameson Williams?
57:12>> Jameson.
57:13>> Okay.
57:15>> Travis Kelce I like too. Um >> I'm sure you do.
57:18>> Seattle plays a ton of zone. I usually don't. So it's it's noteworthy. I think uh Seattle plays a bunch of zone. uh 2.5
57:26yards per route run against zone that ranks top three. Uh he's top three against two high too, which Seattle plays a ton of. Uh he's had five or
57:35fewer targets in four or five games this year, but I kind of think uh you know this is going to be a little more
57:42competitive than the games have been. Uh so mild ankle sprain, keep an eye on that. But um he's still been like really
57:52decent despite the age. Uh he's he's top five among tight ends and yards for route run this year.
57:59>> Okay. Um Drake Thomas is out for the Seahawks as well. He's their will linebacker. Um probably if if they're ever going to deploy a linebacker and
58:09like a match coverage against tight end, it would be Drake Thomas, not Ernest Jones. So that's definitely notable.
58:14Tyrese Knight, the guy replacing him, a little bit stiffer, a little bit more of a downhill player. So, he still has to
58:21contend with Taiakota and Josh Joby and Nick Amani, though. It's I don't love I don't love those matchups for Kelsey.
58:28So, I think I'm I'm a little out on Kelsey at tight end 7, but >> okay, >> we can uh split the diff.
58:34>> We'll say it's fair.
58:35>> We'll say it's fair. Seattle Seahawks seen seen a lot of red here. Um I don't know. The Chiefs defense has
58:46been pretty smothering so far.
58:49JSN the only worthy star. Everyone else read Emanuel Emanuel Wilson as a on the fence guy. Where are you at on the
58:56Seahawks offense?
58:58>> Yeah, it's a tough matchup. Kansas City allows the fewest yards before contact per attempt. Uh and he doesn't really give you anything through the air still.
59:06He's probably going to get 12 to 14 carries maybe falls into the end zone.
59:10So, it's a fair projection. And then JSN, yeah, you just start him every week. It's the He's like the only guy.
59:17it's, you know, the Seattle, Jackson, Smith, and Jigbas.
59:22Um, and so even if it is a tough matchup, kind of doesn't matter when you're arguably the best wide receiver in football who gets like a 50% yardage
59:30share every week.
59:31>> Yeah, that's fair. It's pretty much the exhaustion of my notes in this game. So, >> yeah, >> good to move on.
59:38>> Yeah.
59:39>> All right. Monday Night Football, the Dallas Cowboys face their bitter rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia.
59:46Dallas is the road favorite, four and a half points. Overunder is 44 here.
59:52It's interesting to see such a heavy road favorite when both teams are two and four and seemingly imploding. But I digress.
59:59>> I mean, one one is imploding a lot more than the other.
60:03>> Bro, I watched Dak Prescott throw a ball 10 yards out of bounds on fourth and 11 the other day.
60:08>> Yeah, >> but that's just what he does. He's not imploding. That's just kind of who he is.
60:14>> He's so frustrating. Yeah.
60:17>> Every time I come around on Dak Prescott, he does something to get me out. Every like every I swear every time
60:24I'm like, "Ah, okay, cool. I I I like him as a top seven quarterback again."
60:27And then he does that and I'm like, "I can't I can't go to war with a guy like that. I can't go to war with a guy." No.
60:33>> Can't be in the trenches with the Dak Prescott.
60:35>> Same with Jaden Daniels. Fourth and two, you whip the ball out of bounds. What are we doing? Purposely threw the ball
60:41away on fourth and two. Yeah, >> just throw in the end zone, you loser.
60:46What is wrong with you? Go try to get one with your legs. Like, I don't know.
60:50Can't go to war with these guys. But anyways, I probably being a little harsh. The the Cowboys offense has still been pretty good despite despite
60:58everything going on. So, um, and they face an Eagles defense that has been they've underperformed. We can say that at least. Where are you at on the
61:05Cowboys?
61:08>> Feels like we're a little low on pickins. I I like the CD projection. I like I think it's right. I think I think
61:13all these are right. Um >> do you >> Yeah, Eagles are kind of sneaky tough on the ground. They've been giving up a lot of
61:20fantasy points, but that's largely just teams running on them because they're getting blown out or teams being inside the red zone because they just turn the
61:28ball over and then scoring touchdowns.
61:30Um but they're second best in yards before contact per per attempt allowed.
61:36Um you know, bottom five match up for running backs through the air as well.
61:41Um, >> and so yeah, CD Lamb, George Pickkins, I I think it's right the discrepancy. Wide receiver five versus wide receiver 21.
61:48The Eagles are the premier uh slot funnel in the league. That's because uh Riley Moss has been awful.
61:56I'm sorry, what's his name? Cooper Deene has been awful. Same same guy. Um and and and yeah, so CD Lamb is way spends a
62:05lot more time in the slot than George Pickins. So, he is the much better matchup. Uh, and it's also a guy who,
62:12bro, his last three games he had 21, five, 18 targets. Two games with 18 plus targets in the same month. That's that's
62:21crazy. Um, but I don't know. He did just have 18, so maybe maybe he sees less and it's more pickins because that's what
62:28you predicted last time that happened.
62:30So, I don't know.
62:33>> It was short rest though, you know.
62:35>> Yeah, fair.
62:37Yeah, I'm Eagles just gave up a bunch to the outside last week with Jaylen Coker and T McMillan.
62:45>> No, Coker did a lot of that in the slot.
62:47>> No, he did a lot of it outside, actually.
62:48>> Oh, okay.
62:50>> Coker's transitioned. He's not playing as much in the slot anymore.
62:54Playing a lot outside. Um, yeah. Uh, Coker lined up outside last week five for 65. T McMillan six for 86.
63:05So, I'm just saying.
63:08>> Yeah.
63:09>> Also, you're running the risk of them having to sit down Quinan Mitchell in case they want a trade.
63:14>> Wow.
63:15>> You know what? What >> you want to guess how many receiving yards McMillan and Coker had in the slot last week?
63:21>> I'll guess zero.
63:22>> A combined zero.
63:24>> Yeah.
63:25>> Damn. You You caught me slipping yet again. [snorts] >> Look at that.
63:31>> You know what helps is when you watch the games. Well, you know what helps is uh we had to record about like four
63:37hours early today. So >> Oh, >> it's those it's those extra hours make a world of difference for me. I'm telling
63:43you.
63:43>> Make it an excuse. Sorry.
63:44>> I'm telling you. Yeah.
63:46>> Okay. You can do that if you want. You can make an excuse or you could just dab me up. You know what I mean?
63:51>> A million excuses for Bo Knicks. I I can't get one excuse.
63:55>> That's the thing. Shawn Peyton made the excuse for Boon Knicks. Bo Nick didn't go up there and make the excuse.
63:59>> I could have made for you. I was making the excuse for you.
64:03>> Okay.
64:04>> I was saying you should watch the games.
64:06That's your That's your excuse. I don't watch the games.
64:08>> Yeah, I watch them through the spreadsheets, >> right?
64:10>> Which is better than watching them cuz cuz you you watch a play and then it sticks in the back of your mind
64:16>> as if it's 10 plays, but I watch all plays simultaneously via my spread spreadsheets.
64:23>> There is some truth to that. there. I think film fil film bros get caught a little bit >> enamored with the the ceiling outcome
64:31because we see a play we're like why can't we just do that on every play >> you know >> but that's why this is the best show
64:38Brett it's because >> that's true that's true >> you get the analytics bro you get the film bro and it's peanut butter and
64:43jelly >> you know yeah I see JJ McCarthy just rip a freaking layered throw over the middle and I'm like guys he's here he he added
64:50the pitching wedge to the to the bag doesn't need to hit drive >> did whatever you about JJ McCarthy because I already pulled Trey to the
64:57side and I said, "Anytime Brett talks about JJ, you have to edit it out of the show because we can't be
65:04>> the anti- Caleb projude >> show on YouTube."
65:08>> I'm not anti- Caleb. Why are you saying that? I've just been objective about his performance in the NFL to this point.
65:14>> Okay, >> that's not the same thing. I don't I'm not rooting for the guy to fail.
65:18>> Yeah. Yeah.
65:19>> In fact, I refused to to clown on him for the hamstring thing other than he was a big baby and he whined about it
65:23too much.
65:25>> Yeah. Did you see the the clip of uh Devonte Adams having a grade three hamstring versus Caleb having a grade
65:32two hamstring?
65:33>> Yeah. He just walked off the field like a man.
65:36>> Well, he he tried to he tried to get back in the huddle first. He was like, >> "I'm all right. I'm all right." It's
65:41like, "No, bro. No, you're not."
65:43>> Yeah.
65:45Can uh can I add something here for our viewers real quick?
65:49>> Voice from the shadows. Go ahead.
65:50>> So, I wanted to I wanted to say this because we get a lot of flack for our uh you know pronunciation of player names,
65:56but I I did want to say do you know what the spreadsheets and the all 22 have in common?
66:01>> I don't >> there are no announcers, no broadcasters.
66:05>> So, the people who are the people who are looking at the things that actually matter, they're not you know what I
66:10mean? They're not hearing the names pronounced on TV. So, actually, you probably want somebody who doesn't know how to pronounce the names more than
66:19somebody who's just, you know, watched on Sunday night and that's it. So, I just wanted to throw that in there.
66:24>> That's like a micro week of the the week that we >> It is truly.
66:28>> Shout out Trey. Shout out the motion man.
66:31>> Heck yeah. All right. Well, that's that's it. That's the slate. And we don't have a special segment.
66:35>> We didn't talk about the Eagles.
66:36>> We didn't. Oh, man. I didn't want to.
66:40>> Oh gosh, you caught me slipping. Look at that. Just ask RB 15. Is that high?
66:45First game back kind of sucked.
66:47>> He's practicing today officially.
66:49>> Yeah.
66:50>> Um offensive line's terrible. Tanner McKe's also terrible and possibly a ginger.
66:56>> Uh did you know that Gingers are massively over represented among NFL quarterbacks? Like massive.
67:02>> Yeah, I did know that.
67:03>> They're like 0.
67:04>> There's more than one of them.
67:06>> Six six% of the And then there's like Andy Dalton, Roger Stack, Tanner. There's there's like a million.
67:13It's And so my theory on this is there's actually a gene that makes gingers more
67:20they have a a much higher pain tolerance and like also another weird thing is uh anesthesiologists have to use like more
67:30anesthesia on them. Um, and so yeah, it's just they they have >> they can drink a lot without passing out.
67:37>> Literally super physiological um pain tolerance. So >> did you know that >> competitive toughness? Yeah.
67:45>> Irish Bare Knuckles Boxing League. All the all the the fighters are Irish.
67:50>> Yeah.
67:51>> Crazy stuff.
67:51>> You mean you mean Redheads?
67:53>> Yeah.
67:54>> Irish or redheads?
67:58>> I'm just Shout out D Bro, by the way, my favorite ginger on the planet.
68:01>> Is he a ginger? Are you Yeah, he is. You didn't know that?
68:05>> Oh, he's bald.
68:06>> Yeah, he actually has a soul, though.
68:07It's a little different.
68:08>> Yeah.
68:09>> Are you a ginger?
68:11>> No.
68:11>> You look at your beard right now.
68:13>> I have a >> It has patches of red, but it's it's not red.
68:16>> I've got like some red right here between the gray.
68:18>> My My grandmother was a uh a ginger.
68:21They called her big red.
68:26>> Yeah, that's a real thing. She wasn't She wasn't like obese or anything. He just called her big. She's big in spirit.
68:40>> Your grandma was Your grandma was named Big Red. Eh, >> that's right. Yeah. [laughter] >> Okay.
68:46>> Put some respect on that name.
68:48>> Oh my god.
68:50Let's talk about the Eagles.
68:55Uh, big red Tanner [laughter] McKe, QB24.
69:00>> That's Mike Rener's boy. Mike Rener had like a round two grade on him. He went round six, but he sucked last week, but he he was also
69:08really good in his first career start and in the preseason.
69:12>> Preseason stats don't count, man. Right.
69:14I know. Uh, >> yeah. Uh, I I don't have a lot of >> It's the worst defense in the league, arguably.
69:22>> Well, that's true.
69:24That's true.
69:25>> They allow the most EPA per drop back, the second most fantasy points per drop back. So, this is like the best possible
69:31spot for the guy. And we we were just talking about the importance of schedule adjustments.
69:36>> Yeah.
69:37>> Jaylen Daniels beat the Cowboys defense.
69:45>> You're not wrong. That's That is true.
69:47>> And he's not even a ginger. So, imagine what Tanner McKe could do. I don't know that I've ever seen his hair. Actually,
69:53he might be a ginger. We don't know.
69:55>> Isn't he Jaden Daniels brother?
69:59>> Is he actually? You're making that up.
70:00>> No, he's not.
70:01>> Okay.
70:04>> Um, all right. Let's get serious. Saquon Barkley. Let's Let's pick that back up.
70:08RB15. Too high or too low >> or just right? Could that be just right?
70:13>> You know, I don't really know. Um, I gave it some thought. He was he had zero games over nine fantasy points before
70:19the injury. but he really only played two full games. He had 15 carries, two targets, 72% snap share. Um, the offensive line is awful.
70:31He probably gets like 100% of the work though. So, I I think this is probably right. Probably right.
70:39>> Okay. [laughter] >> I'm still thinking about Big Red, your grandma.
70:45>> What are you imagining? Are you imagining >> No, it's just It's funny. You just caught me off guard at that, man.
70:51Uh, Devonte Smith, wide receiver, 12 feels feels about right with this Cowboys defense despite Tanner McKe.
70:58>> Yeah, top five in target share, first three target share. Uh, he got 14 of 44 targets last week.
71:05>> Uh, really [snorts] good against single high. It's a single high heavy matchup.
71:10>> Wix cannot command targets for whatever reason.
71:13>> You think it's the roll? You think he's just running? It's just all like runoff nines and stuff. I I think they just
71:18don't want him to mog Mai Lemon >> because that's the guy a first round pick on him and, you know, don't want to
71:25just, you know, ruin his confidence. But this is the ultimate spot for Mai Lemon.
71:31Like if Mai Lemon is a guy, he's going to go off here. If not, it's just totally over. Tanner McKe targets
71:38the middle of the field a lot more than Jaylen Herz. And then it's >> Do we have a big enough sample to
71:43actually know that though? And then like um we we have a sample of Jaylen Herds targeting the middle of the field of the
71:52league's lowest rate with five different offensive coordinators. So I think we know that uh the Eagles are the biggest slot funnel in the league, but the
71:58Cowboys are up there. They're top 12 against outside wide receivers. They're bottom three against the slot. So this would be the M Mai Lemon setup.
72:06Unfortunately, you're listening to Fantasy Football Daily with Brett and Scott where we were lowest in the industry on Mai Lemon and all we've ever
72:15seen is evidence to support that take.
72:18Um, I had Devont Smith and Dallas Goddard as buy lows. You disagreed, but because I had them both as Boss, I do of
72:27course like them in this spot. The stat I had was well Dallas gotard eight targets last week with with Tanner McKe,
72:33but in his eight full games without AJ Brown since 2024, Goddard averages 2.46 yards per route run. That's more than Malik Neighbors
72:42this year. 15 fantasy points per game.
72:46That would have ranked second best at the position last year. I I still think it's a much better spot for Dvont. But
72:52yeah, I I think it I think despite our pessimism on this team and Tanner McKe, I I think they're all stars. Saquon,
73:00Devonte, Dallas.
73:02>> What if the Philadelphia Eagles would have drafted Max Aenhor in the first round and then Jeremy Bernard in the second round? What if they would have
73:10done that?
73:10>> Well, that was exactly the take we had.
73:12We we said um the Eagles did the P the Steelers a favor and I dude, read the replies to that tweet. All this [ __ ] I
73:20got for it. It's that looks exactly right.
73:22>> Imagine having Max Eyeer at right tackle right now instead of >> brah. I know.
73:27>> Yeah.
73:30What could have been? I'm glad how finally got one wrong. [sighs] All right.
73:36>> The Tuesday night game.
73:40>> Bengals. Uh Bengals Falcons.
73:45>> What are you doing to me? [laughter] >> Trying to catch you off. We don't we don't have uh an extra segment planned
73:51this week. There's no men of R for now.
73:53No cooking with Brett.
73:54>> Yeah, that's a bummer.
73:55>> We got to make some more bets.
73:57>> Or sound off in the comments what you want. Maybe we'll get a a segment from uh the motion man in the shadows.
74:04>> That could be fun. That could be really fun. Let us know. Uh we need a an extra segment next week. What should it be or
74:13what should we bet on? Just tell us.
74:15>> Oh, what do you want the Wednesday show to be? I I think it was my idea was a retrospective >> on looking back at ADP and seeing who
74:24all the league winners, league losers are >> and whether we think that's going to continue or not.
74:30>> Uh oh, also start send questions in the comments. Fantasy fairy gonna >> Yeah, do all that stuff.
74:37>> Yeah, let us know all those things. Just just write like thousandword replies to this video.
74:42>> Yeah, let us know what your grandmother's nickname was. Was it Was it Nana? Was it Nene?
74:48>> Nene. [laughter] >> Nanny.
74:51>> Big Red.
74:52>> Shout out to my nanny who's in her 90s.
74:54I I love her so much. Favorite person on the planet.
74:57>> Well, your your Big Red's still alive.
74:59>> No, no, no. RIP Big Red. But nanny's Nanny's still alive.
75:04>> All right. Well, that's going to do it for us on the week seven start sit.
75:08Remember to go check out part one yesterday if you didn't already.
75:11Remember, if you're if [music] you're not currently subscribed to the channel, please subscribe. Turn notifications on.
75:16Don't miss a single video. We're helping you win fantasy leagues every day.
75:19That's going to do it for us [music] today. We are out.
75:30>> [music]