Week 7 Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Decisions to Win Your League

Scott Barrett identifies this as an elite setup and ultimate get-right spot for A.J. Brown after his worst fantasy performance in data history (worst FP over expectation discrepancy by a WR since 2021). The Bears rank bottom-seven in fantasy points per game to outside WRs and employ a man-heavy coverage scheme where only Puka Nacua averages more yards per route run since 2024. Brown had 10 targets, 43% first-read target share, and 94% route share last week; Romeo Dobbs is out. The Bears are weak on intermediate and deep passes, positioning Brown to "eat in this game." Barrett notes Thursday night game volatility and observed Brown looking slightly off on film despite getting open downfield.

QB12 receiving QB1 projections; averaging 270 passing yards per game over last 4 games and leads all QBs with 11 TDs (no other QB has more than 10). However, poor schematic matchup against Saints' single-high coverage—Rodgers ranks 34th of 35 QBs in EPA per dropback against single high, and the Saints play single high at a top-3 rate. Scott Barrett views this as fair value in a week with byes but not an exciting start despite the production.

Antonio Williams is mentioned as part of an alternative dynasty trade package (alongside KCC and a first and second-round pick) offered for Kenneth Walker in a tanking scenario, indicating modest value in trade discussions.

Baker Mayfield returned to practice in limited participation and is expected to play for Tampa Bay; his return helps all pass catchers, particularly Booker, even though Mayfield is not a star-level QB.

Scott Barrett uses Bijan Robinson as a usage comparison point for Bucky Irving, noting Irving's 18 carries and 3 targets per game since week two is 'basically Bijan over the same stretch, which is kind of crazy.' Also cited as recent matchup context: held to 72 yards on 16 carries (4.5 yards per carry) against Carolina.

Scott Barrett recommends Irving as an RB1 this week based on strong usage trends and matchup. Since week two, Irving averages 18 carries and 3 targets per game—comparable to Bijan Robinson over the same stretch, which Barrett calls "basically Bijan." Week six showed Irving's best role at 83% backfield XFP share. Carolina ranks dead last in yards per carry allowed and gives up the third most rushing fantasy points per game to RBs, making Irving an attractive start.

Scott Barrett believes Caleb Williams' projection is slightly high. He only had three rushing yards last week coming off a hamstring injury, which is a concern. However, Barrett still ranks Williams as a top-seven quarterback for the rest of season and notes he needs to see more rushing volume and an air yards per attempt over 3.1 to feel comfortable.

Chris Godwin is mentioned in the context of Mike Evans' role discussion; Barrett suggests moving Evans to the slot role and power slot position that Godwin currently occupies, implying a potential role shift for the Buccaneers receiving corps.

Chris Olave is a strong play against the Steelers, who have been relatively soft against the pass at intermediate and deep levels where Olave operates. Despite recent struggles (under 50 yards in back-to-back games), Olave ranks WR7 in fantasy points per game and WR5 in XFP per game, well ahead of his WR14 projection. Scott Barrett rates him as a WR1 for the week due to the favorable matchup.

Darnell Mooney is on the injury watch list for the Bears, making him a conditional start if you have him on your roster, though the rest of the Bears offense is viewed favorably for fantasy purposes.

Njoku's return from injury would provide a modest boost to the Buccaneers passing game; while not a star performer himself, his presence helps elevate teammates' production, particularly benefiting Rachaad White in the passing game.

Scott Barrett believes DeMario Douglas is undervalued in current projections. Douglas scored 22.5 and 20.6 fantasy points in the last two weeks with strong expected fantasy points (XFP), and has been New England's primary man-beater this season. Barrett notes Douglas was likely available on waivers just days before, making him a waiver-wire gem with better production than his projection suggests.

Derek Carr ranks QB9 by fantasy points per game and QB3 by XFP per game, but is projected at QB17. A broken left hand may be impacting his performance over the last two weeks, which has a trickle-down effect on his receivers like Chris Olave. However, the non-throwing hand injury should not significantly impact accuracy or ability to hand off.

Great matchup against Saints' weak deep-ball defense; has 12 deep targets this year and Saints are described as 'awful on deep balls.' However, displays boom/bust pattern with 5 drops (tied for league high), which is atypical for his career and likely to regress. Received 15 targets last week and ranks 13th in first-read target share. Scott Barrett rates him at wide receiver 19 in fantasy ranking, meeting in the middle between his high target volume and lower yards-per-game and fantasy-points-per-game production.

Scott Barrett identifies Drake May as a potential buy low despite QB9 ranking in fantasy points per game, citing QB1 efficiency in expected fantasy points per game and strong recent volume: averaging 31 fantasy points per game over last three games (32 XFP per game, 7.5 more than any other QB). Against Chicago's bottom-five defense in fantasy points per dropback, May's 0.82 fantasy points per dropback against man coverage (second-best over last two seasons, 78% boost versus zone) aligns favorably with the Bears' top-five man coverage rate. Chicago's defense ranks second-worst in yards per pass attempt and second-worst in yards before contact allowed to opposing running backs, though opponents run the fewest plays per game against Chicago, suggesting game script may limit volume as teams build leads and run more. Concerns include Chicago's solid pass rush (May is second-most pressured QB) and New England's injury-decimated offensive line, plus the Thursday night game context.

Hunter Henry is mentioned in a start/sit context where Barrett indicates current projections and rankings are appropriate for decision-making purposes, suggesting no major adjustment needed from consensus. Scott Barrett indicates Hunter Henry's current projection and ranking are appropriate and well-calibrated, offering no upside or downside adjustment relative to expectations.

Ja'Marr Chase is expected to dominate the Ravens this week. He has historically dominated Baltimore in dominant fashion, averaging 14.5 targets, 175 yards, and 34.5 fantasy points per game over the last three to four games. The new Bengals regime fits him well, and he's better against two-high coverage than single-high, which the Ravens play at a top-five rate.

Similar pattern to DK Metcalf: has seen a decent number of catchable deep targets but has struggled with drops, which is atypical for his career and likely to regress to the mean.

Great matchup against Saints defense, which ranks bottom-three in rushing yards over expectation per carry and yards per carry allowed, and gives up the most fantasy points per game to running backs.

Excellent matchup against Saints, who give up the most fantasy points per game to running backs and rank bottom-three in rushing yards over expectation per carry and yards per carry allowed. Warren has posted 70+ yards from scrimmage in all 6 games and doubled that over his last 4 games. However, losing work to Rico Dowdle (concerning trend) and has only 1 carry inside the 10-yard line all year, capping touchdown upside. Scott Barrett assesses him as lower-end RB1/high-end RB2 rather than RB9.

Juwan Johnson is a definite sit; his workload has declined significantly, with only two targets last week and a 13.1% target share over the last three games. The Falcons deployed heavier tight ends Noah Fant and Oscar Delp in recent games, indicating a fading role for Johnson.

In dynasty, Scott Barrett affirms that a trade package of Bucky Irving, Casey Concepton, a 2027 first-round pick, and a 2027 second-round pick is "definitely enough" for Kenneth Walker. Barrett advises the listener to "run to the podium" on the deal, especially if the 2027 first has a chance at Jeremiah Smith. The trade makes sense for a tanking team, as Kenneth Walker has no business being on a rebuilding roster.

Kyle Pitts is back inside the top 10 of projections this week. His efficiency metrics are poor—he ranks 32nd of 44 tight ends in yards per route run—but he is tight end six in expected fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. If he continues to catch seven drag routes per game like Caleb Williams did last week, his upside is significant.

Scott Barrett ranks Lamar as QB2 despite similar but less exaggerated blitz/non-blitz splits to Tyler Huntley; the Ravens fall from third best to bottom 10 in pass defense when Lamar is included in the sample. Ankle injury raises skepticism about his ability to run, and teams may play him as a pocket passer as they did last year when he struggled. Lamar has not been spotted on the practice field for Wednesday's practice, which is not good for the Ravens-Bengals over/under projection and suggests Vegas will adjust accordingly.

Luther Burden benefits from the Patriots' vulnerable secondary and play-action defense; New England is giving up a 91% completion rate for 11.5 yards per target on play action. However, Scott Barrett notes volatility: Burden had a 38% snap share and 38% route share last week with a team-high eight targets, creating some inconsistency despite the favorable matchup.

Scott Barrett likes Mark Andrews this week against Cincinnati, which represents a favorable matchup. Andrews has a soft matchup despite struggling to 7.7 fantasy points per game; his role metrics are strong with 20% target share (5th among TEs) and 3rd in air yards share. Cincinnati is a top tight end funnel defense (gave up 140 yards to Dalton Schultz), making this a 'now or never' game where underlying role support should finally translate to production.

Scott Barrett highlights Mike Evans as a concerning fade despite high target volume. Evans has zero 65-yard games over his last 14 games and averages just 5.2 yards per target over his last 17 games—fourth worst ever among 125+ target receivers. Over his last four games, Evans has received 9, 4, 9, and 16 targets, showing volume but poor efficiency. Barrett suggests Evans should be moved to the slot in a power slot role rather than outside receiver, as his profile (excellent ball skills and body control but not a deep threat) doesn't match his current usage; he's "a more physically gifted version of Michael Wilson."

Pat Freiermuth is a definite sit; Scott Barrett notes he is ranked worse than his actual production warrants. Against single-high coverage, Freiermuth produces nothing, and backup Darnell Washington likely outscores him in this matchup.

Rachaad White is positioned to receive a usage bump in the passing game if David Njoku returns from injury, as Njoku's presence would open up more opportunities for White as a pass-catching option.

Ramondre Stevenson's stock has significantly fallen since his round-six draft capital. Scott Barrett notes that while Stevenson is projected only three points higher than DeMario Douglas, the key context is that Stevenson was a premium draft pick whose value has declined, whereas Douglas was a waiver-wire pickup, making Douglas the better relative value despite similar projections.

Flex-level RB with potential touchdown upside in Saints matchup. Had 7 carries and 3 targets last week (second game back from injury), compared to Warren's 14 carries and 4 targets. Warren has only 1 carry inside the 10-yard line all year, making Dowdle a 'decent anytime touchdown bet' with more red-zone opportunity. Concern that Dowdle could get even more touches as he gets further removed from injury.

Scott Barrett rates Rome Odunze as a sit this week against New England. Odunze is averaging only 1.67 yards per route run overall and just 0.25 yards per route run against man coverage, which is problematic because New England plays man at one of the highest rates in the league. Christian Gonzalez may shadow him, and even without a shadow, the matchup is unfavorable.

Tee Higgins is still a start despite looking hobbled in his last game played before the bye week. Prior to that game, he had at least 11 targets and 90-plus yards in each of his last three games. There is some injury concern to monitor following his decoy-like performance.

Scott Barrett prefers Trey Loveland over Kelce in Week 7 tight end start/sit decisions, suggesting a less favorable outlook for Kelce relative to other top-tier tight end options.

Tyler Higbee's projection accuracy has been volatile week-to-week. Barrett previously thought projections were too low on Higbee, but Higbee then underperformed relative to Darren Parkinson the following week, and then outperformed Parkinson the week after that, illustrating the difficulty in projecting tight end performance.

If Huntley starts instead of Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers requires a significant downgrade from WR2 to WR10; the original buy-high thesis was predicated on Rashod Bateman being out, but Huntley's poor non-blitz EPA makes the Ravens' passing game less efficient. Huntley leads all qualifying QBs in EPA per dropback against the blitz but falls to bottom 10 without a blitz, creating a schematic mismatch against Cincinnati, which blitzes the least (5% pressure rate).